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University Microfilms International 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 USA St. John's Road, Tyler's Green High Wycombe, Bucks, England HP10 8HR 1 I 77-31,975 SHESKIN, Ira Martin, 1950- A PLANNING MODEL OF THE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE NETWORK. The Ohio State University, Ph.D., 1977 Transportation University Microfilms International, Ann Arbor, Michigan 4 bim @ 1977 IRA MARTIN SHESKIN ALL RIGHTS RESERVED A PLANNING MODEL OF THE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE NETWORK DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University •By Ira M. Sheskin, B.A., M.A. * * * # The Ohio State University 1977 Reading Committee Approved by Dr. Jeffrey P. Osleeb Dr. Howard L. Gauthier Dr. Edward J. Taaffe Department of Geography ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Although a dissertation is theoretically the work of one man, this is rarely the case in reality. A large number of people contributed to the fruition of this project. Acknowledgments are most gratefully extended to Jeffrey P. Osleeb, my adviser, for his most percep­ tive suggestion of a research topic and his continual guidance and advice. On a personal level, Jeff generated a warm, personal friendship that was itself an inspiration to the successful completion* of this dissertation. Howard L. Gauthier, my "in-house" adviser, who gave me his time well beyond the call of duty as a committee member. Thanks are also due for his loan of the OKA computer program. Edward J. Taaffe, for his helpful comments at various stages of the project. the Reading Committee as a whole for their most expedient "turn-around". Barry Lentnek (who begat Jeff) without whom 1 never would have had the confidence to get into this mess in the first place. ii the faculty at SUNY at Buffalo and Ohio State. A dissertation is the culmination of one’s total graduate training. the graduate students at Ohio State, particularly Robert Cromley and Charles Morrow-Jones, who had many ideas "bounced" off them. Robert Brooks for his most helpful suggestions. Ellis Boyd of the Federal Power Commission who is the most helpful and cooperative public servant I found in any agency. Bill Monroe of the Federal Power Commission for his help on the pipeline flow diagrams. David Sweet of the Public Utility Commission of Ohio for his information on Ohio natural gas, Lowell Elder of Columbia Gas for his assistance. my Parents who have always wanted to say, "My son, the doctor", but geographyl who instilled in me the need to know and the will to succeed. Karen, my wife, who offered the type of comfort during some of the "darkest" moments of the research that none of the above persons could. Nef, who is the best listener of them all. iii « VITA June 10, 1950 ........ Born - Brooklyn, New York * 1972................... B.A. Magna Cuih Laude, Geography, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 1972-1974 ............. Teaching and Research Assistant, Department of Geography, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 197 4 ................... M.A., Geography, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 1974-1975 , ........ Teaching Assistant, Department of Geography, The Ohio State Univer­ sity, Columbus, Ohio 197 5 ................... Research Assistant, Department of Geography, The Ohio State Univer­ sity, Columbus, Ohio 1975-1977 ............. Teaching Associate, Department of Geography,. The Ohio State Univer­ sity, Columbus, Ohio PUBLICATIONS "Consumer Behavior in Different Areas", with Barry Lentnek and Stanley R. Lieber, Annals of the Association of Ameri­ can Geographers, Vol. 65 (December7 1975? pp* 538 -5*4-5 . "Natural Gas* A Geographical Perspective”, with Jeffrey P. Osleeb, Geographical Review, Vol. 66 (January, 1977) PP* 71-85* "Consumer Behavior and Urban Spatial Structure in Mexico", with Barry Lentnek and Stanley R. Lieber, in Latin Amerioai Search for Geographic Explanations, Proceedings of the Con­ ference of Latin Americanist Geographers. Robert Tata, Editor, Vol. V (±976) PP* 57-^* iv "Current and Future Prospects for Canadian-U.S. Natural Gas Trade", with Jeffrey P. Osleeb, Proceedings of the Middle States Division. Association of American Geograph­ ers, John B. Garver, Jr. and John H. Munson, Editors, VoT. IX (1975) PP. 76-79. "A Selection of Exercises for Introductory Human Geography Courses with Comments for Instructors", with Marylin A. Brown, Ohio State University, Department of Geography, Discussion Paper No. (January, 1977)* "A Selection of Exercises for Introductory Human Geography Courses", with Marylin A. Brown, Ohio State University, Department of Geography, Discussion Paper No. (January, 1977) (Available in Bulk). "The Reconstitution of Regression Coefficients in Principal Components Regression Analysis", Ohio State University, Department of Geography, Discussion Paper No. 55 (May, 1977). Review of Urban Transportation Modeling and Planning, by Peter R. Stopher and Arnim H. Me.vburg and Urban Travel Demand, A Behavioral Analysis, by Thomas A. Domencich and . Daniel McFadden in Geographical Analysis (forthcoming). AWARDS Phi Beta Kappa, State University of New York at Buffalo Alumni Awards for Graduate Student Research.and Creative Achievement, Finalist, The Ohio State University, 1976 FIELDS OF STUDY Studies in Transportation Geography. Professors Howard L. Gauthier and Edward J. Taaffe Studies in Urban Transportation Planning. Professors Howard L. Gauthier and Michael Godfrey Studies in Quantitative and Urban Geography. Professor Jeffrey P . Osleeb v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .............................. ii VITA................................................. iv LIST OF TABLES............................. x LIST OF FIGURES .................................... xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS.............................. xv Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION ................................ 1 2. NORMATIVE COMMODITY FLOW STUDY IN GEOGRAPHYt A LITERATURE REVIEW........................... 9 2.1 The Transportation Problem ........ 11 2.2 The Out-of-Kilter Algorithm........ 18 2.3 Other Mathematical Programming Approaches ............... 2k Z.k Conclusions......................... 2? 3. A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF NATURAL GAS DEMAND, SUPPLY, FLOW, AND THE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE NETWORK...................................... 28 3*1 Introduction ..................... 28 3*2 The Spatial Pattern of Natural Gas D e m a n d ........, .................... 29 ' The Importance of Natural Gas to Each State's Energy Budget. 40 Total Natural Gas Consumption.. 41 Residential Consumption ........ 41 vi Chapter Page Industrial Consumption............. 41 Commercial Consumption............. 42 Electrical Utility Industry Consumption....................... 43 3*3 The Spatial Pattern of Natural Gas S u p p l y ............................ 45 3.4 The Natural Gas Pipeline Network and the Plow of Natural Gas ...........52 4. THE OUT-OF-KILTER ALGORITHM................... 59 4.1 A Conceptual Introduction to the Out-of-Kilter Algorithm............... 59 4.2 The Utility of the OKA for Modeling the Natural Gas Pipeline Network . 65 5. THE DEMAND SUBMODEL............................ 72 5.1 The Definition of Demand Regions . 72 Step 1 .............................. 77 Step 2 .............................. 79 Step 3 .............................. 81 5.2 The Determination of Future Demand and Consumption in Each Demand R e g i o n ............. ,................. 83 Selecting State-Level Demand Data................................ 84 Econometric Models .......... 84 Survey Estimates ............. 87 Selecting Variables to Apportion State-Level

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