EPP Party Barometer January 2019

The Situation of the European People´s Party in the EU and an Outlook on the EP Elections

(as of 26 January 2019)

Created by Olaf Wientzek Coordinator European Policy Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

Map templates by: www.kas.de Janine Höhle, HA Kommunikation, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Summary and latest developments

• The maps show the electoral results for parties belonging to the European People‘s Party (and in one case the Socialists). • The maps indicate the political affiliation of Heads of State and Government of EU member countries. They also indicate which party family is leading in the national polls. • Parties belonging to the EPP family are (in national polls) the strongest political family in 12 (-1 compared with the last barometer) countries . The Socialist family is leading in 6 (+1), the Liberal family in 4 (+1) countries,the Eurosceptic Conservatives in 2 (-2), parties affiliated to the /EFA-Group in 1 (+1) country. In France and Latvia, unaffiliated movements /parties are stronger than any party family, in the far-right is the strongest political family. • If one looks only at the political colour of the strongest political force (and not the entire party family), an EPP party is leading in 10 countries, the Socialists in 8, the ALDE in 4, the ECR in 3 each, , independents and right-wing populists in one each • In many countries, the advantage of the leading political family in the opinion polls is very slim (France, Spain, Slovakia, Finland, , Lithuania). • The EPP familiy enjoys a relatively strong support in the opinion polls (above 30%) in , Poland, Hungary, , , Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Portugal, , Ireland, Malta and Cyprus • In the European Council, 9 (+1) Heads of State and Government belong to the EPP family, 8 to the Liberals, 5 to the Socialists/Social , 2 to the Eurosceptic Conservatives, one to the European Left. 3 (-1) are formally independent

Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Strongest political family in national opinion polls (January 2019)

Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats & Socialists) ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE Family (Liberals)

Far-Right, Right-wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia Diverse populists GUE/NGL (Far-Left) Lithuania Greens / EFA Ireland Independents Poland Germany Belgium Slovakia

Luxembourg Czech Rep.

Hungary France 4. Romania Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Strongest single party in national opinion polls (January 2019)

Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats & Socialists) ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE Family (Liberals)

Far-Right, Right-wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia Diverse populists Denmark GUE/NGL (Far-Left) Lithuania Greens / EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland United Kingdom Germany Belgium Slovakia

Luxembourg Czech Rep.

Hungary France 4. Romania Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Election results of the strongest EPP member party in the last national election Sweden (2022) 19.84 in % / year of next election in brackets Finland (2019) 18.20

0 – 5% Estonia (2019) 5 – 10% 13.70 10 – 15% Latvia (2022) 15 – 20% 6.69 Denmark (2019) 20 – 25% Lithuania (2020) 3.40 25 – 30% Ireland (2021) 22.63 30 – 35% 25.50 Netherlands (2021) 12.40 35 – 40% Poland (2019) United Kingdom (2022) 40 – 50% 24.09 Germany (2021) 0.00 Slovakia (2020) 32.90 5.80 6.50 Belgium (2019) Czech Rep. (2021) 11.61 Luxembourg (2023) 28.31 Hungary (2022) 4. 49.27 Romania (2020) France* (2022) 20.04 22.23 Italy (2023) 14.01 Croatia (2020) 36.27 Bulgaria (2021) 2. 32.65 1. Austria (2022) Portugal**** (2019) Spain (2020) 31.50 36.86 Greece (2019) 33.01 Slovenia (2022) 28.10 24.92 Cyprus (2021) Malta (2022) 30.69

Created by: Olaf Wientzek 43.68 Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Cumulated election results of all parties belonging to the EPP family Sweden In % 26.16 Finland 21.74 0 – 5%

5 – 10% Estonia 10 – 15% 13.70 15 – 20% Latvia 20 – 25% 6.69

25 – 30% Denmark Lithuania 30 – 35% 4.20 Ireland 22.63 35 – 40% 25.50 Netherlands 40 – 50% 12.40 Poland > 50% United Kingdom 29.22 Germany 0.00 Slovakia 32.90 11.11 15.76 Belgium Czech Rep. 16.60 Luxembourg 28.31 Hungary 4. 49.27 Romania France* 31.58 22.23 Italy 15.72 Croatia 36.27 Bulgaria 2. 35.71 1. Austria Portugal Spain 31.50 36.86 Greece 33.01 Slovenia 28.10 34.70 Cyprus Malta 30.69

Created by: Olaf Wientzek 43.68 Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Cumulated election results of the PES/S&D family (Socialists & Social Democrats) in the last Sweden 28.40 national parliamentary election Finland In % 16.51

0 – 5%

5 – 10% Estonia 15.20 10 – 15% Latvia 15 – 20% 19.80 20 – 25% Denmark Lithuania 25 – 30% 26.30 Ireland 15.04 30 – 35% 6.60 Netherlands above 35 % 5.70 Poland United Kingdom 7.55 Germany 40.00 Slovakia 20.50 7.27 28.28 Belgium Czech Rep. 20.50 Luxembourg 17.60 Hungary 4. 17.27 Romania France 45.68 6.06 Italy 18.72 Croatia 33.82 Bulgaria 2. 27.19 1. Austria Portugal Spain 26.86 32.32 Greece 22.63 Slovenia 6.29 9.93

Cyprus Malta 20.70

Created by: Olaf Wientzek 55.04 Outlook on the EP elections in 2019

• Introductory remarks: • Preferences expressed in national opinion polls are not necessarily identical with voting preferences in EP elections • A low turnout (or a different mobilisation rate among competing parties) may have a strong impact • The prominence of the „Spitzenkandidat“/national top candidates may influence voter preferences

• With caution, the following statements can be made: • Despite (significant) losses in bigger member states, the EPP would likely remain the strongest political family (174-195 seats) in the EP (24.7%-27.7% of seats) • In relative terms, the share of the EPP group (currently 28.9% of the seats) would only moderately be reduced (-1.2% up to -4.2%), as the EPP Group would suffer less from the departure of the (likely) British MEPs than other political groups (in comparison the S&D would be at 19%, down from 25%) • Parties of the far-right (ENF) and the far-left (GUE/NGL) would have a potential of more than 19-20% of the seats, together with a potential new group headed by the 5-Star-movement even around 23-24%. It is still unclear where the 5-Star-Movement will position itself. Together, the far-right, the far-left, a group led by the 5-Star-Movement and the Eurosceptic ECR could gather up to 32% of the seats. • A coalition of EPP and S&D would not have a majority on its own but would need a third partner • Depending on the scenario, 64-72% of MEPs would continue to belong to moderate political groups (EPP, S&D, Liberals+Macron-led movement („Europe en Marche“), Greens) • In comparison to the previous barometer the EPP and the Greens with a few seats less (back to the level of autumn 2018), minimal increase for the S&D-Group. The EPP would still clearly remain the biggest group. Significant increase for the „unaffiliated“ (due to the Vest movement in France) and the „various far- right“ • Due to several unknown variables (Will Macron form a group on his own or will he join the Liberals? Will the various far-right parties manage to unite? Will the 5-Star-Movement form a group on its own?), three different scenarios will be developed Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 1 – Status Quo

• Presumptions: Party membership in the groups remains constant, the Eurosceptic EFDD Group (UKIP+5-Star-Movement) may or may not survive, Macron may form a joint group with ALDE

Scenario 1.1: EFDD group survives Scenario 1.2: Macron joins the ALDE group, EFDD dissolves

23 Unaffiliated Unaffiliated

49 35 Various far-right 49 56 Various far-right

39 EFDD 41 ENF 134 ENF 56 134 56 ECR ECR 47 EPP EPP 47 ALDE 46 46 ALDE (incl. Macron) Macron Greens/EFA 21 Greens/EFA 72 183 93 S&D 183 S&D GUE/NGL GUE/NGL

• With caution, the following statements can be made: • A future majority would probably have to rely on the E PP, the S&D and ALDE. Other three-party- constellations (EPP+Social Democrats+Greens) would arithmetically be possible but are politically unlikely

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 2 – Europe en Marche

• Presumptions: a new Europarty created by Macron („Europe en Marche“) successfully assembles liberal and left-liberal pro-European forces; 2.2.: some of the unaffiliated forces join other Europarties, Syriza joins S&D, the 5-Star-Movement joins the Green/EFA Group

Scenario 2.1.: Macron-ALDE group absorbs many unaffiliated Scenario 2.2.: i.a. Syriza joins S&D, 5-stars join Greens/EFA 12 Unaffiliated Unaffiliated 49 40 42 41 Various far-right Various far-right 41 56 ENF 56 ENF 143 132 47 ECR ECR 47 EPP EPP 46 ALDE-EEM ALDE-EEM 73 Greens/EFA 184 Greens/EFA 111 183 S&D 107 S&D GUE/NGL GUE/NGL

• With caution, the following statements can be made: • A joint political group of Macron and ALDE would become one of the three big groups, but would remain smaller than the S&D group • If (scenario 2.2) pro-European groups manage to integrate many of the yet undecided parties, the pro-European groups might receive up to 72% of the seats

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 3 – United Radicals

• Presumption: far-right and far-left parties manage to reunite in fewer groups and absorb unaffiliated parties. Scenario 3.1.: The 5-Star-Movement manages to create a group on its own, the ECR absorbs some of the far-right parties. Scenario 3.2: The ENF manages to absorb far-right parties

Scenario 3.1.: 5stars manage to form a group, strong ECR 2.0 Scenario 3.2.: ENF 2.0 absorbs most of the far-right 1 4 Unaffiliated 4 Unaffiliated Various far-right 49 72 52 32 37 Various far-right ENF 86 ENF 65 ECR 136 ECR 136 EPP 54 ALDE-EEM EPP

Greens/EFA ALDE+EEM 184 50 50 S&D Greens/EFA 184 5-Star-Plus 107 107 S&D GUE/NGL GUE/NGL

• With caution, the following statements can be made: • The perspectives for a new group headed by the Five-Star-Movement remain uncertain. However, chances have improved slightly since the „Yellow Vests“ declared to run in the EP elections. • Parties from the far-left and the far-right would have a potential of approx. 19-20%, combined with a 5-Stars-Group up to around 23-24%. Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Results of parties belonging to the EPP familly in the 2014 EP elections Sweden in % 19.58 Finland 27.80 0 – 5%

5 – 10% Estonia 10 – 15% 13.90 15 – 20% Latvia 20 – 25% 46.19

25 – 30% Denmark Lithuania 30 – 35% 9.10 Ireland 17.43 35 – 40% 22.28 Netherlands 40 – 45% 15.18 Poland > 45% United Kingdom² 38.93 Germany 0.00 Slovakia 35.30 25.90 33.32 Belgium Czech Rep. 16.89 Luxembourg 37.66 Hungary 4. 51.48 Romania France 40.63 20.81 Italy 21.69 Croatia 34.15 (41.42) Bulgaria 2. 36.85 1. Austria Portugal Spain 26.98 29.95 Greece 26.99 Slovenia 22.72 41.44

Cyprus Malta 37.75

Created by: Olaf Wientzek 40.02 Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Strongest party family in the 2014 EP elections

Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES / S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE / ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE Family (Liberals)

Far-right, right wing populists (ENF et al.) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (Far-left) Lithuania Greens /EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland United Kingdom Germany Slovakia

Belgium Czech Rep.

Luxembourg Hungary 1 The Socialists were the strongest force 4. Romania immediately after the elections. Due to PNL France Joining the EPP, the EPP is now the stronger political family Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Government participation of the EPP family Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Government participation of parties affiliated to the EPP,

as of 26 January Sweden

₁ Finland

Government without EPP participation, but Head of State belongs to the EPP family Estonia Parties of the EPP family are part of the government (shaded: government Latvia negotiations ongoing, particpation unclear) Head of State or Government belongs to the EPP family Denmark Lithuania

Ireland Netherlands

Poland United Kingdom Germany Slovakia

Belgium Czech Rep.

Luxembourg Hungary 4. Romania France Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Bildnachweis: fotolia.com Heads of State and Government and their political family (as of 26 January)

Sweden

Finland EPP: Christian Democrats; Centre-Right

PES/S&D: Social Democrats / Socialists

ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives Estonia AALDE: Liberals

Greens/EFA Latvia Div. populists Denmark Far-Left (GUE/NGL) Lithuania Far-Right Ireland Netherlands Independent Poland United Kingdom Germany Slovakia

Belgium Czech Rep.

Luxembourg Hungary 1 The President (EPP family) re- 4. Romania presents Romania in the European France Council. The Prime Minister ₁ belongs to the Socialist family. Italy² Croatia

Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus ²Conte is independent, but Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek was a 5Stelle candidate Bildnachweis: fotolia.com The EPP Family in the EU – Which parties belong to the EPP? Sweden Moderaterna (MOD) Kristdemokraterna (KD) Finland Kokoomus (SK) KD

Estonia Isamaa Latvia Vienotiba

Denmark Lithuania DKF (C) TS-LKD Ireland KD Fine Gael Netherlands CDA Poland United Kingdom PO Germany PSL (no EPP member party) Slovakia CDU / Czech Rep. KDH CSU KDU-CSL Belgium Most-Hid TOP 09 CD&V, CDH, CSP² SMK Luxembourg CSV Hungary 4. Fidesz / Romania France* KDNP PNL Les Républicains Italy PMP Croatia RMDSZ Forza Italia SVP HDZ Bulgaria 2. AP HSS GERB 1. Austria UDC BCM PATT DSB Portugal ÖVP Spain UDF PSD Greece PP CDS-PP Slovenia SDS ND N.Si SLS Cyprus Malta DISY Created by: Olaf Wientzek PN Notes

* The figures for France refer to the LR results achieved in the second round of the parliamentary elections; the shares of votes obtained by independent rights (1.68%) or by the UDI (ALDE) are not included. ** There have been no polls in France on the legislative elections since the last national parliamentary elections, only on European elections *** In Belgium, polls are conducted at the regional level. In order to obtain an adequate result at the national level, these results were weighted according to the number of voters (compulsory voting). Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar voter turnout in the various regions, there may be small discrepancies. In Belgium, the partner parties CD&V, CSP and CDH only compete on a regional basis, and the results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only takes part in European elections. In national elections, it is part of the CDH because the Belgian House of Representatives is composed by region (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not by language community. In Luxembourg, the polls are conducted regionally, the results being weighted according to the number of voters (compulsory voting) to calculate the national strength. Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar voter turnout in the various regions, small deviations may occur. **** In Portugal, a PSD and CDS-PP electoral alliance was formed in the last national elections, so both values of the PSD are not comparable with the result of the parliamentary elections.

Further notes: In several countries (e. g. Slovenia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania), the undecided and non-voters are included in the total (100%) in the polls. The poll values have been extrapolated accordingly. Example: Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote. 20% of respondents are undecided. Accordingly, support for Party A is reported to be 26%.

In Croatia, the EPP party HSS was a member of the Social Democratic People's Coalition in the elections and did not receive a separate result. Correspondingly, the data are not quite comparable; the calculation of the difference has not been made. The election result noted for the Social Democrats therefore refers to the entire electoral alliance, which also did not include PES parties (such as the HSS).

In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties due to the faction community and the always aggregated polling figures.

Some of the parties in the ACRE family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist positions. Since this is a now (or for the time being) an established party family, parties belonging to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as "right-wing populist". This category, on the other hand, includes the parties belonging to the ENF or EFDD group in the EP, as well as other independent right-wing populist or right-wing extremist forces.

1 The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of state (in the case of a different party affiliation than the government) are only shown (separately) if they are represented in the European Council (case of Iohannis in Romania). In the case of France, no EPP participation in the government is shown, since the official EPP party LR is not officially part of the government.

² While the EPP has no member party in the UK, since February 2018, two MEPs have switched from the ECR Group to the EPP Group

Sources for polls: TNS (Belgium), Trend (Bulgaria), voxmeter (Denmark), Forsa (Germany), Kantar (Estonia), Kantar (Finland), Elabe (France), Pulse/RC (Greece), YouGov (UK),BA (Ireland), Ipsos (Italy), Ipsos (Croatia), SDKS (Latvia), Vilmorus (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Malta Today (Malta), Ipsos (Netherlands), RA (Austria), Ibris (Poland), Aximage (Portugal), IMAS (Romania), Inizio (Sweden), Focus (Slovakia), Mediana (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), Median (Czech Rep), Szazadveg (Hungary), CYMAR (Cyprus)

The party barometer is updated every 4-6 weeks and available on www.kas.de .

Contact Olaf Wientzek Coordinator for European Policy, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung European and International Cooperation Kurfürstenstraße 84 10787 Berlin Phone: +49 -(0)30/26996-3509, Fax: -3551 E-Mail: [email protected]