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Moldova, a Major European Success for the Eastern Partnership?

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Moldova, a Major European Success for the Eastern Partnership? POLICY PAPER European Issue n°186 th 22 november 2010 Moldova, a Major European Success from Florent Parmentier for the Eastern Partnership? PhD, is lecturer in EU enlargement politics at Sciences Po. He contributes to the websites www.euro-power.eu and SUMMARY Moldova is about to hold general elections again after those of April and July 2009. www.moldavie.fr. He has recently The political system entered into political crisis as it was unable to elect a president over the published When Empire Meets past year. However, Moldovan authorities have not missed the opportunity to launch a large set Nationalism. Power Politics in the US and of political and economic reforms. Moldova is now experiencing dynamics which a priori appear Russia, Farnham, Ashgate, 2009 (with positive but which have to be confirmed in the long run. Despite its rather turbulent political Didier Chaudet and Benoît Pélopidas) and landscape, the Moldovan regime now seems to be relatively pluralist and progress has been Moldavie. Les atouts de la francophonie, made notably with regard to the freedom of information. Moreover, relations with the European Paris, Non Lieu, 2010 (Moldova. Union have strengthened to the point that Moldova has seemingly become a test country for The Advantages of Belonging to the the Eastern Partnership. The negotiation of an Association Agreement is now on-going. Finally, French Speaking Community) the Transnistrian conflict, which has remained for many years in stalemate, meets a rising in- terest on the part of Europeans. A changing international landscape, such as an in-the-making rapprochement INTRODUCTION Moldova, a tiny country sandwi- according to three main objectives: stability, pros- ched between Romanian and Ukraine, was neglected perity and security. We should therefore understand for a long time after its independence in 1991. This the present political context before taking into consi- post-Soviet country has been torn between Romania deration the various stakes of European integration, and Russia over the last two centuries. The country and then evaluating the perspectives of a Transnis- had to face many major issues after its independen- trian conflict settlement. ce: economic collapse, massive emigration, lack of settlement to the Transnistrian conflict, etc. However, A more Pluralist Regime but a Fragile Coalition Moldova has known nearly a decade of high-rate GDP Moldova’s present political regime is certainly the growth driven by remittances. In spite of a severe most open in the post-Soviet area apart from the recession in 2009 (-6.5%), the country now seems Baltic States. Hence several incumbent presidents to be experiencing favourable dynamics both in eco- quit their office after an electoral defeat (Mircea nomic and political terms. One of the reasons is the Snegur in 1996 and Petru Lucinschi in 2001), which Eastern Partnership, a political cooperation agree- shows that alternating change of power is possible ment launched in 2009. It is a specific policy for six through democratic means. The Head of state has fa- former Soviet States (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, ced influential opposition forces either in Parliament, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), with Moldova being within the institutions or within society [1]. probably the most promising case. Moreover new Overall, Moldova’s democratic trajectory has been perspectives for the settlement to the Transnistrian strongly influenced by several factors. At the begin- conflict are emerging thanks to a noticeable rappro- ning of the 1990s, the country’s economy remained chement between the EU and Russia. largely agricultural and the share of rural popula- 1. About the idea of “pluralism These dynamics are still fragile but the European tion remained high. This agricultural sector suffered by default”, see Lucan Way, “Weak States and Pluralism: The Union has undeniably and more than ever before an from a low level of productivity, and was still largely Case of Moldova”, East European opportunity to stimulate on-going changes in Moldo- oriented towards the Soviet markets. The lack of a Politics and Societies, vol.17, no3, summer 2003, p.454-482. va. The EU’s success in Moldova can been assessed solid industrial base and adequate infrastructures Neighbour States FOndatION RObert SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN Issue N°186 / 22TH NOVEMBER 2010 Moldova, a Major European Success for the Eastern Partnership? explains endemic poverty. Moldova experienced se- 2009 with his party as one of the main protagonists. veral major economic crises, first in the initial years After the elections of April, 5th, the Communists of- (transformation crisis), second in 1998 (side-effects ficially won 60 seats, in comparison with 41 for the of the Russian financial and economic crisis) and in opposition (49.48% of the vote). However, the com- 02 2009 (collapse of markets and remittances). Chronic munists missed one deputy to elect the President under-employment has led to massive emigration, since the constitutional reform of July 2000 turned there are between 600,000 to one million Moldovans a semi-presidential regime into a parliamentary one abroad, i.e. between a quarter and a third of the in which the president is elected by a 3/5th majority, working population; remittances represented up to i.e. 61 out of 101. In the beginning the international 36% of the GDP in 2008, an impressive figure. Re- observers who monitored the electoral process made mittances contributed to an over-evaluation of the a positive assessment of the elections. However, pre- national currency, the lei, with damaging consequen- sumptions of fraud provoked a wave of protests by ces for exports. This emigration has many socio-eco- many young people in Chisinau and in other towns, a nomic effects, such as the destructuration of families phenomenon known as the “Twitter Revolution”[2]. since many parents left to work abroad without their On April 7th, at the climax of the crisis, part of the children. On a political level, Moldova had no demo- crowd set fire to parliament and destroyed the Pre- cratic institutional model on which it can rely, unlike sidency. This political turmoil might have remai- the Baltic countries which had already enjoyed in- ned a sporadic incident reduced to silence by the dependence during the interwar period. The debate authorities if only one member of the opposition over national identity has played a major role since had defected. Unexpectedly, none of them gave the independence: the Romanian speakers of Moldova communists the missing “golden vote”: Communist see themselves as ‘Romanian’, or as ‘Moldovans’; candidate Zinaida Greceanii was rejected, making it by choosing either one or the other means taking a necessary to convene new general elections. Rather stance in the political debate: there is a rift between than fragmentation, the opposition parties were in rightwing parties which are rather pro-Romanian and the process of creating the “Alliance for European leftwing parties which tend to be pro-Russian – this Integration” (AEI). In the new general elections of distinction shows that we should not apply Western 29th July 2009, the AEI won 53 seats (against 48 for European criteria to distinguish the right and the left. the PCRM), which was not enough to elect Marian In addition to this question concerning the majority Lupu, the Alliance candidate, who had earlier quit population, Moldova has several minorities: Russian the PCRM for the Democratic Party after the events (and more widely, Russian-speakers), Ukrainian, Ga- in April. Since the Parliament could not be dissolved gauz (Christian Turkish speaking), Roma, Bulgarian, a second time in the same year, elections were post- etc. Relations between the majority and the minori- poned until 28th November 2010. The failure of the ties (often Russian-speaking) are now relatively se- political system to elect a president left the country condary in terms of daily concerns (although some in a situation of constitutional crisis with an interim occasional clumsy declarations may rekindle ten- President. However, it did not prevent the other ins- sion). This overview would of course be incomplete titutions from functioning normally. if we did not include Transnistria, a secessionist ter- On the eve of the new general election, the coalition ritory in the East of Moldova, which wants to remain finds itself in a difficult position since it has suffered within the Russian fold and whose status within Mol- from internal divisions with regard to international, dova still has to be defined. socio-economic and also historical issues. In addi- For eight years (2001-2009) Vladimir Voronin was tion, the failure of the referendum (on the election both the president of the majority party, the Party of of the President by direct universal suffrage) on 5th Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM), and September 2010 because of inadequate turnout has 2. See Nicolae Negru et al., also President of the Republic. Although he could not soured relations. Indeed, every member of the coa- Twitter Revolution. Episode One, Moldova, Chisinau, ARC, 2010. run for President, general elections occurred in April lition hoped to take first position within the AEI in Neighbour States FOndatION RObert SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN Issue N°186 / 22TH NOVEMBER 2010 Moldova, a Major European Success for the Eastern Partnership? order to gain more power and more key positions. Progress in Moldova’s European Integration The AEI is composed by four parties. The Liberal Moldova has remained on the sidelines of European Democratic Party of Moldova (LDPM) led by Prime integration for a long time: the Partnership and Coo- Minister Vlad Filat has many executives and holds peration Agreement, signed in 1994, only entered a good number of ministerial posts. It is the most into force in 1998. It joined the Stability Pact for 03 popular party in the coalition. The Liberal Party (LP) South East Europe at a late stage and without any is led by the leader of the Parliament and interim promise of a future enlargement, contrary to other President of the Republic, Mihai Ghimpu; the most countries.
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