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The Republic of Moldova Roskilde University The European Union and Moldova Beyond the PCA Manners, Ian Published in: The Republic of Moldova Publication date: 1999 Document Version Early version, also known as pre-print Citation for published version (APA): Manners, I. (1999). The European Union and Moldova Beyond the PCA. In L. Bruton (Ed.), The Republic of Moldova: Time for a New EU Strategy? (pp. 57-77). Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. http://www.swp-berlin.org/ General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain. • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal. Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 27. Sep. 2021 STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (SWP) C ONFLICT P REVENTION NETWORK* (CPN) Leilah Bruton Project Manger The Republic of Moldova: Time for a New EU Strategy? SWP-CPN Selected Contributions Nr. 5 1999 * CPN is a network of academic institutions, NGOs and independent experts. It forms part of the European Union Analysis and Evaluation Centre (EUAEC), an SWP project managed on behalf of the European Commission. The information and observations contained in SWP-CPN documents do not necessarily reflect the views or position of EU institutions. SWP-CPN: Chaussée de Vleurgat 159 SWP-CPN: Zeller Weg 27 B - 1050 Brussels D - 82067 Ebenhausen Phone: +32-2-64 60 491 Phone: +49-8178-70-354 Fax: +32-2-64 06 355 Fax: +49-8178-70-406 and 312 email: [email protected] email:[email protected] Display in publicly accessible data bases is not permitted. Reprinting or similar use of Conflict Prevention Network (CPN) products or extracts thereof, is allowed only with prior written approval of SWP-CPN. 2 CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 3 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 5 Executive Summary and Conclusions 7 I. Discussion Papers The Impact of Moldova’s Economy on the Country’s Stability 11 Lucia Padure The Conflict in Transnistria: Its Dynamics and Possible Solutions 45 Andrew Williams The European Union and Moldova Beyond the PCA 59 Ian Manners II. Fact Sheets The Republic of Moldova: Foreign and Security Policy 83 Klemens Büscher The Republic of Moldova: Domestic Politics 91 Klemens Büscher 4 CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 5 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Introduction Given the recent adoption of a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) which entered into force on 1 July 1998, the immediate focus for the European Commission will be that of its implementation. However, within the context of enlargement and the Republic of Moldova’s self- confessed medium/long-term aspirations of full membership, SWP-CPN was asked to assist the process of reflection on the policy the EU should develop beyond the PCA, the purpose of the study being to integrate the EU policy vis à vis Moldova into a comprehensive approach to the region. In light of the above, a workshop took place on the 9th November 1998 in Brussels in the presence of representatives from the European Commission, the European Parliament, the EBRD, the OSCE and external experts. Three discussion papers were commissioned to be used to animate the workshop: (1) The Conflict in Transnistria: Its Dynamics and Possible Solutions (Andrew Williams, University of Kent); (2) The Impact of Moldova’s Economy on the Country’s Stability (Ian Manners, University of Kent); and (3) The European Union and Moldova Beyond the PCA (Lucia Padure, KPMG Moldova). Additionally, two fact sheets were produced by Klemens Buescher (Cologne University): (1) Republic of Moldova: Domestic Politics; and (2) Republic of Moldova: Foreign and Security Policy. The papers were then amended in light of the discussion and the external experts were asked to draft operational conclusions. 6 CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 7 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Executive Summary and Conclusions An independent state since 1991, the Republic of Moldova faces both an economic decline and an on-going conflict involving the separatist movement in Transnistria which, although open hostilities ceased in 1992, still simmers. Security tensions and a lack of trust exist between the two sides and until they are overcome there will continue to be a risk of violent conflict, an issue of concern to the international community given the fear of „balkanisation“ in the region. At the same time, a situation of dispute, as it exists in Moldova, affects both the economic and political security of the country by destabilising trade, energy supplies, the monetary system, the budget and the investment performances of Moldova, as well as the stability of the region. The enlargement process the EU is presently undertaking will bring substantial changes to the geo- strategic set-up of Central and Eastern Europe. In this context, the EU's relationship with the Republic of Moldova needs to be integrated into a comprehensive EU strategy in the region. The perspective of direct neighbourhood between an enlarged EU and the Republic of Moldova raises totally new challenges. Security is no longer limited to military threats. The tensions resulting from political and socio-economic conflicts (soft security risks) are equally menacing. The EU, therefore, has a long-term interest in the consolidation of Moldovan independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity in order to safeguard European peace and stability. The EU and the Republic of Moldova signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) in 1994, which has only recently entered into force. Although in the near future, the emphasis will be on implementing this agreement, there is a need to (re)define the medium/long term policy vis à vis Moldova in light of EU enlargement and Moldovan aspirations to full membership. Any such policy will have to address the issues of the future status of Moldova, its internal conflict and its relations with its near neighbours. Against this backdrop, some brief operational conclusions can be drafted following the workshop held in Brussels: – The conflict is frozen in a stalemate where neither side will currently make much movement in the direction of the other. The Transnistrian position is firmly held, unlike the Moldovan position which is subject to many splits, often due to changes in negotiating personnel since 1992. The main sticking point in discussions hinges around the problem of the status of Transnistria within a Moldovan „space“. Other cleavages between the parties can be summarised as: ones predicated on economic and political ideology; differences of view about which way „Moldova faces in Europe“, West or East; and what kind of state arrangements can be arrived at. The recommendation is that the EU increases its role in a conflict which is a major element in the problems of successfully implementing the economic liberalisation advocated in the PCA. Any intervention must take into account the sensitivities of the key regional players, notably Russia and Ukraine. A forceful policy towards Moldova could inflame public opinion unnecessarily in 8 CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Russia, including against the EU. Bearing this in mind, the EU should, however, take "full advantage of diplomatic channels through bilateral and multilateral fields such as the United Nations, OSCE meetings and elsewhere". The UN resolution can be an effective tool, as was shown in the withdrawal of the Soviet Army from the Baltic states. – On the specific issue of economic development within the PCA and Tacis, the EU should: encourage Moldova’s integration into the world economy by supporting its application to join the WTO and assisting in its compliance with GATT; develop programmes providing technical assistance and policy advice in agriculture, transport and energy thereby assisting Moldova to overcome its "seasonal dependence"; and consider the development of freer trade amongst CEECs and other PCA states. – The EU should play a more proactive role in regional relations by: heightening the attention given to Confidence Building Measures (CBMs); encouraging the Trilateral between Moldova, Ukraine and Romania as a means of encouraging cross border co-operation; considering EU strategy towards the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, through member states or through observer status. CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 9 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik I. Briefing Papers 10 CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik CPN Selected Contributions, 1999 11 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik The Impact of Moldova’s Economy on the Country’s Stability Lucia Padure I. Executive Summary While Moldova may have achieved an increase in the number of people who own private property, relatively stable exchange rates and low inflation,
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