Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova September 20 – October 20, 2014
International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology
• The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Magenta Consulting.
• Data was collected throughout Moldova September 20 – October 20, 2014 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home.
• The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Moldova 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement.
• All regions of Moldova were surveyed (excluding Transnistria). Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures: • Stage one: districts of Moldova are grouped into 11 groups. • Stage two: selection of the settlements – cities and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of settlement in each region. • Stage three: primary sampling units were described.
• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.
• Response rate was 62 percent.
• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
• The survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.
2 Increased Support for Pro-European Parties
International Republican Institute Moldovan Parliamentary Parties
Ruling Pro-European Coalition (holds 53 of 101 seats) • Liberal Democratic Party – 31 seats • Democratic Party – 15 seats • Liberal Reformist Party – 7 seats
Independent Parties • Liberal Party – 5 seats, split from the ruling coalition in February 2013, supports European Union accession
Current Parliamentary Opposition (holds 43 of 101 seats) • Communist Party – 34 seats • Party of Socialists – 4 seats • Smaller Parties/Independents – 5 seats
4 Which of the parties would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday? Likely voters, n=952
Liberal Democratic Party 22% Ruling Pro-European Coalition = 37% Democratic Party 14% Liberal Reformist Party 1%
Liberal Party 8%
Communist Party 23% Party of Socialists 6%
Republican Popular Party 10% People's Anti-Mafia Movement 1% Other 4% None 1% Don't know/Refused to answer 9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
5 Are you going to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections?
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 64% 15% 4% 6% 11%
Jun-14 77% 15% 3% 4% 1%
Jan-12 50% 31% 6% 3% 10%
Dec-11 66% 21% 4% 3% 6%
Aug-11 47% 33% 6% 4% 10%
Sep-10 47% 34% 5% 2% 12%
May-10 53% 32% 3%2% 10%
Feb-10 55% 30% 3%3% 9%
Nov-09 59% 28% 2%3% 9%
Nov-08 58% 31% 4% 2%5%
61% Apr-08 23% 4% 3% 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
6 What is your opinion about the job the Pro-European Coalition is doing?
Very good job Rather good job Rather bad job Very bad job Don’t know/No answer
Sep-14 18% 30% 19% 24% 9%
8% Jun-14 38% 30% 15% 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
7 If Moldova was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be with?
The European Union The Customs Union/Eurasian Union Other Don’t know/No answer
Sep-14 46% 42% 1% 11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
8 If a referendum was held today on Moldova joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), how would you vote?
For Moldova joining NATO Against Moldova joining NATO Would not vote Don’t know/No answer
Sep-14 31% 31% 15% 23%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
9 How would you assess the current relations between Moldova and the following entities?
Good Bad Neither good, nor bad Don't know/No answer
13% 9% 7% European Union 71%
Romania 68% 12% 12% 8%
Ukraine 60% 14% 19% 7%
United States 59% 10% 15% 16%
Russia 38% 51% 7% 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
10 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partners for Moldova? Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest economic threat to Moldova?
Partner Threat
60% 57% 56%
50% 44%
40% 37%
30% 30% 28%
21% 20% 16% 17% 11% 10% 9% 10% 8% 2% 0% Russia European Romania Ukraine United States None Don't Union know/No answer
11 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important political partners for Moldova? Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest political threat to Moldova?
Partner Threat
60%
50% 50% 48% 43% 40%
29% 30% 28% 23% 20% 21% 20% 18% 13% 14% 10% 10% 8% 2% 0% European Russia Romania United States Ukraine None Don't Union know/No answer
12 Moldovans Concerned about Russia’s Actions in the Region
International Republican Institute Who is responsible for the blockage of some Moldovan exports to Russia?
First mentioned Second mentioned
Russian government 47% 14%
Moldovan government 18% 17%
Russian businesses 10% 25%
Ukrainian government 6% 2%
Moldovan producers 4% 9%
The European Union 4% 9%
Don't know/No answer 11% 24%
14 What should Moldova do in response to the Russian blockage of some Moldovan exports?
1% Seek other markets for Moldovan 6% goods
12% Try to reason with Russia to accept Moldovan goods but without changing the priority of foreign policy of Moldova 44% Fully support the policy of Russia in order to win Russia’s support
Other
37% Don’t know/No answer
15 Given the current Russian activities in Ukraine, do you consider Russian troops in Transnistria to be a threat to Moldova?
They are a real threat to Moldova They are maybe a threat to Moldova, depending on events in Ukraine They are not a real threat to Moldova Don’t know/No answer
Sep-14 46% 28% 21% 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
16 What do you think the future of Transnistria should be?
Ordinary region of Moldova, without any autonomy Autonomy within the Republic of Moldova 0%0% A part of the Russian Federation A part of Ukraine 0%0% Independent Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 60% 15% 8% 2% 11% 4%
Jun-14 67% 16% 7% 1% 6% 3% Jan-12 66% 16% 7% 7% 4% Dec-11 66% 17% 6%1% 5% 4% Aug-11 61% 20% 6%1% 8% 4% Feb-11 60% 18% 5% 8% 9% Sep-10 65% 16% 3%1% 7% 8%
May-10 72% 12% 2% 8% 6%
Feb-10 68% 17% 4%1% 5% 5%
Nov-09 69% 18% 2%1%5% 6% Nov-08 68% 19% 1%4% 7%
Apr-08 65% 21% 2%1%4% 7% Mar-07 61% 21% 3% 4% 11% Apr-06 80% 12% 1% 2% 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
17 How do you evaluate the following recent events in Ukraine?
Positively Indifferently Negatively Don't know/No answer
Removal of the President V.Yanukovich 46% 20% 15% 19%
Appointment of A.Yatseniuk as Prime 38% 25% 14% 22% Minister of Ukraine
Election of P.Poroshenko as the 32% 32% 16% 20% President of Ukraine
Referendum on self-rule held in Eastern Ukraine 30% 18% 28% 24% on May 11, 2014
Crimea joining Russia 19% 14% 55% 12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
18 Who do you believe is responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine?
Previous Ukrainian government New Ukrainian government Russia European Union Certain groups of Ukrainian people Other
Sep-14 23% 9% 40% 8% 8% 3% 9%
Jun-14 26% 9% 28% 8% 10% 4% 16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
19 Moldovans are Concerned about the Economy & Corruption
International Republican Institute What are the most important problems that Moldova is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent)
Unemployment 34% Corruption 32% Low income 31% High prices/Inflation 11% Bad government/President 10% Emigration 10% Poverty 10% Roads 9% European integration 6% Political crisis 5% Indifference of the people 4% Economic situation 4% Instability/Chaos in the country 3% Education problems 3% Crime 3% Disruption of exports to Russia 3% Social assistance 2% The problems with European and Eurasian unions 2% Economic development 2% Healthcare system 2% Don't know/No answer 6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 21 What are the most important problems your town/village is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent)
Roads 40% Unemployment 23% Low income 11% Cleanliness 11% Transportation 8% High prices/Inflation 7% Insufficient streets lighting 6% Water supply 6% Sanitation 6% Corruption 6% Gas supply 4% Poverty 4% Emigration 4% Expensive housing/Utilities 3% Inefficient work of civil servants 3% Education 2% Social assistance 2% Traffic jams 2% Healthcare system 2% Crime 2% Don't know/No answer 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 22 What are the most important problems facing you and your household? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent)
Low incomes 46% Unemployment 14% Inflation/High prices 10% Insufficient streets lighting 9% Poverty 9% Expensive housing/Utilities 8% Health 6% Emigration 3% Expensive drugs and medical services 3% Lonliness 3% Lack of social assistance 3% Lack of housing 3% Corruption 2% Don't know/No answer 21%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
23 Is corruption a big problem in Moldova today?
0%0%0% It is a very big issue It is a big issue It is not a big issue 0% It is not an issue at all Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 73% 18% 5% 1%3% Jun-14 81% 14% 1%1%3% Jan-12 73% 21% 2% 3% Dec-11 80% 15% 2%1%2% Aug-11 61% 29% 3%1%6% Feb-11 59% 33% 3%1% 4% Sep-10 57% 31% 4% 1% 7% May-10 53% 37% 4% 1%5% Feb-10 58% 33% 4% 2%3% Nov-09 61% 31% 3% 5%
Nov-08 62% 27% 4% 1% 6% Apr-08 60% 25% 5% 10%
Mar-07 64% 26% 2% 8% Mar-06 66% 25% 3% 5% Nov-04 72% 24% 2%2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
24 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Moldova changed?
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 6% 22% 24% 21% 19% 7% Jun-14 4% 20% 33% 23% 14% 6% Jan-12 2% 13% 31% 28% 22% 4% Dec-11 2% 15% 20% 31% 29% 3% Aug-11 5% 23% 34% 17% 18% 3% Feb-11 3% 25% 27% 22% 18% 5% Sep-10 5% 18% 28% 26% 17% 6% May-10 2% 14% 30% 30% 19% 5% Feb-10 2% 11% 24% 38% 21% 4% Nov-09 2% 8% 34% 39% 10% 7% Jun-09 1% 9% 22% 42% 20% 5% Nov-08 2% 20% 30% 28% 15% 5% Apr-08 2% 13% 30% 29% 20% 6% Mar-07 4% 24% 32% 27% 10% 4% Apr-06 3% 24% 36% 27% 5% 5% Nov-04 5% 26% 37% 22% 6% 4% Mar-04 3% 23% 37% 25% 9% 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25 Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 4% 21% 38% 19% 15% 3% Jun-14 2% 18% 45% 24% 9% 2% Jan-12 2% 10% 41% 29% 15% 3% Dec-11 1% 13% 39% 28% 17% 2% Aug-11 4% 18% 43% 18% 14% 3% Feb-11 1% 16% 34% 31% 15% 3% Sep-10 4% 14% 36% 29% 14% 4% May-10 1% 11% 42% 29% 15% 2% Feb-10 1% 8% 36% 36% 16% 4% Nov-09 1%7% 46% 34% 9% 3% Jun-09 1% 9% 32% 36% 17% 5% Nov-08 1% 15% 39% 27% 14% 4% Apr-08 2% 11% 37% 25% 16% 9% Mar-07 3% 19% 41% 23% 9% 5% Apr-06 2% 25% 44% 22% 5% 1% Nov-04 4% 23% 47% 20% 5%1% Mar-04 2% 16% 48% 22% 10% 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 26 In your opinion, how will economic situation of Moldova change in 2014?
Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 11% 27% 24% 11% 12% 15%
6% Jun-14 24% 29% 17% 7% 17%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
27 Which of these statements is closest to your own point of view?
Our society needs serious reforms (structural and systemic change) Our society needs gradual reforms which preserve the existing system Our society has to be protected from the forces who want to change the current order Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 58% 21% 11% 10%
Jun-14 57% 24% 8% 11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
28 Moldovans on Government Performance
International Republican Institute Generally speaking, do you think that things in Moldova are going in the right direction or wrong direction?
Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 80% 73% 74% 70% 66% 61% 60% 58% 58% 57% 55% 54% 54% 51% 53% 51% 50% 47% 47% 45% 42% 42% 40% 41% 41% 38% 33% 40% 37% 38% 34% 32% 33% 30% 31% 30% 27% 22% 20% 19% 21% 15% 17% 11% 14% 11% 8% 10% 14% 14% 15% 10% 13% 9% 12% 9% 12% 5% 5%
0%
Apr-06 Apr-08
Jan-12
Sep-10 Sep-14
Mar-04 Mar-07
Jun-09 Jun-14
Aug-11
Dec-11
Feb-10 Feb-11
Nov-04 Nov-08 Nov-09 May-10
*From January 2012 – June 2014, IRI did not conduct polls in Moldova 30 How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Moldova?
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 9% 31% 26% 26% 7% Jun-14 4% 41% 30% 16% 9% Jan-12 1% 18% 43% 27% 11% Dec-11 3% 23% 36% 29% 9% Aug-11 5% 25% 39% 22% 9% Feb-11 3% 29% 36% 21% 10% Sep-10 5% 23% 41% 24% 8% May-10 2% 27% 40% 21% 10% Feb-10 4% 22% 37% 27% 10% Nov-09 3% 27% 37% 20% 14% Jun-09 1% 16% 41% 25% 17% Nov-08 2% 21% 42% 20% 15% Apr-08 2% 17% 41% 24% 16% Mar-07 5% 21% 41% 18% 15% Apr-06 1% 25% 43% 14% 17% Nov-04 2% 26% 44% 14% 14% Mar-04 2% 24% 44% 17% 13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 31 How much interest do you have in politics?
Not interested Medium interest Interested Don't know/No answer
Sep-14 35% 28% 34% 3% Jun-14 39% 29% 31% 1% Jan-12 38% 32% 28% 2% Dec-11 29% 33% 37% 1% Aug-11 40% 30% 29% 1% Feb-11 36% 29% 34% 1% Sep-10 41% 26% 32% 1% May-10 41% 29% 28% 2% Feb-10 36% 31% 32% 1% Nov-09 39% 30% 30% 1% Jun-09 35% 30% 34% 1% Nov-08 46% 31% 22% 1% Apr-08 45% 29% 25% 2% Mar-07 49% 29% 21% 2% Mar-06 46% 26% 25% 3% Nov-04 48% 28% 23% 1% Mar-04 41% 31% 27% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
32 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the government is doing its job?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know/No answer
Sep-14 8% 33% 23% 30% 6%
Jun-14 4% 38% 31% 21% 6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
33 Which politicians or public persons do you trust the most? (Spontaneous)
Vladimir Voronin 24% Iurie Leanca 22% Vlad Filat 17% Marian Lupu 15% Renato Usatii 13% Dorin Chirtoaca 12% Igor Dodon 11% Michai Ghimpu 6% Igor Corman 6% Mark Tkaciuk 3% Sergiu Mocanu 2% Ion Hadarca 1% Zinaida Grecianii 1% Other 17% None 15% Don't know/No answer 5% 34 How would you rate the following political leaders?
Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard of Don't know/No answer
Iurie Leanca 51% 40% 5% 4% Dorin Chirtoaca 41% 45% 5% 9% Marian Lupu 39% 54% 3% 4% Igor Corman 37% 43% 13% 7% Vladimir Voronin 36% 60% 1% 3% Vlad Filat 35% 61% 1% 3% Renato Usatii 32% 50% 10% 8% Nicolae Timofti 29% 63% 4% 4% Maia Sandu 28% 47% 19% 5% Igor Dodon 26% 67% 3% 4% Mihai Ghimpu 26% 66% 4% 4% Valeru Strelet 23% 45% 23% 9% Valentina Buliga 21% 63% 11% 5% Dumitru Diacov 20% 63% 10% 7% Ion Hadarca 20% 55% 18% 7% Natalia Gherman 18% 43% 29% 10% Zinaida Grecianii 18% 63% 12% 7% Mark Tkaciuk 16% 61% 15% 8% Liliana Palihovici 15% 35% 40% 10% Valeru Munteanu 14% 48% 29% 9% Iurie Munteanu 13% 57% 22% 8% Mihai Godea 11% 54% 26% 9% Ion Sturza 11% 49% 30% 10% Vadim Misin 10% 59% 23% 8% Tatiana Potang 10% 27% 52% 11% Oleg Bodrug 7% 37% 45% 11% Stella Jantuan 7% 33% 49% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
35 Now I am going to read you the names of some Moldovan and international institutions. Please tell me about each of them, what is your opinion about the activity of each of these institutions?
Favorable Unfavorable Don’t know/No answer
Moldovan mass media 69% 23% 8% Moldovan Mitropoly (church) 60% 24% 16% European Union 49% 39% 12% Education system 45% 47% 7% Bessarabian Mitropoly (church) 41% 34% 25% Local authorities 41% 49% 10% Moldovan Government 39% 55% 6% Army 39% 48% 13% United Nations 39% 32% 29% United States 38% 38% 24% Commonwealth of Independent States 38% 34% 28% Moldovan Parliament 37% 56% 7% Central Electoral Commission 35% 44% 21% North Atlantic Treaty Organization 35% 38% 27% President’s office 34% 58% 8% Nongovernmental organizations 33% 27% 39% Police authorities 32% 62% 6% Healthcare system 31% 64% 5% Political parties 29% 63% 8% Unions of businessmen 28% 36% 36% Central bank 28% 56% 16% Courts of justice 23% 60% 17% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
36 Sources of information
International Republican Institute Which of these media outlets do you use for gaining political information?
TV news/Programs 91% 93% Radio news/Programs 51% 39% Relatives/Friends 39% 35% Internet 35% 35% Articles in newspapers 23% 24% Billboards/Stands in the streets 21% 6% Sep-14 Leaflets/Other free information by mail 18% Jun-14 5% Meetings with politicians 14% 7% Work colleagues 13% 6% Articles in magazines 8% 3% Other 2%
None 2% 2% 38 In general, what is the influence of each of these forms of election campaigning? Please tell me about each of them, does it have a great influence, some influence, not much influence or no influence at all?
Great/Some influence Not much/No influence Don't know/No answer
TV ads 73% 24% 2%
Meetings with politicians 72% 25% 4%
Meetings with/Opinions of respected people 69% 26% 5%
Radio ads 40% 4% 56% Visits of party or candidate representatives to your house 54% 38% 8% Articles in newspapers about the candidates 48% 47% 5%
Leaflets 48% 47% 5%
Paid ads in press for the candidate or party 45% 47% 8%
Billboards 43% 53% 4%
Personal letters to you from the candidate 42% 53% 5% Telephone calls to your house from the political party or candidate 42% 49% 9%
Slogans/Texts on transport means 39% 56% 5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
39 How often do you use the Internet?
Every day 5-6 days a week 3-4 days a week 1-2 days a week
Sep-14 33% 6% 6% 4% 3% 47% 1%
Jun-14 32% 6% 6% 4% 3% 48% 1%
Jan-12 23% 4% 4% 4% 11% 52% 2%
Dec-11 23% 4% 4% 4% 8% 56% 2%
Aug-11 18% 6% 7% 6% 14% 45% 4%
Feb-11 17% 6% 8% 5% 12% 51% 1%
Sep-10 18% 5% 5% 6% 11% 51% 3%
May-10 13% 5% 8% 7% 13% 52% 2%
Feb-10 15% 5% 7% 6% 12% 48% 6%
Nov-09 12% 2%4% 6% 12% 59% 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
40 Where do you access the Internet? (Internet users, n=619)
At home 98%
At work 16%
At school/University 10%
At friend’s home 6%
Internet café 2%
Other 0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
41 By what means do you access the Internet? (Internet users, n=619)
PC desktop 54%
PC laptop 53%
Mobile phone 22%
Tablet 11%
Don't know/No answer 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
42 Do you use any of the following social media sites? (Internet users, n=619)
Odnoklasniki 82%
Facebook 53%
Vkontakte 25%
Twitter 9%
MoiMir 8%
Linkedin 2%
LiveJournal 0%
I don’t use social media 11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
43 Demographics
International Republican Institute Demographics
Male 47%
Female 53% GENDER 18-29 years 25%
30-49 years 33% AGE 50 years and older 42% Unfinished secondary 19% Secondary 22%
Vocational 35% EDUCATION Higher/Incomplete higher 24% Romanian 7% Moldovan 77% Ukrainian 4%
Russian 5% ETHNICITY Gagauz 4% Other 3% Russian Orthodox 86% Romanian Ortodox 8%
Other 3% RELIGION None 3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 45 Demographics
Manager/Director/Patron 2% Specialist 6% Technician 2% White collar 3% Services, trade 5% Blue collar 8% Unqualified worker 4% Farmer 2% Student 8%
OCCUPATION Retired/Not working 27% Housewife 10% Unemployed/Looking for job 14% Unemployed/Not looking for job 2% Other 4% No answer 3% Bad 41% Average 47%
Good 8% OFFAMILY SITUATION No answer 4% My salary or the income of enterprise or farmer activity 31% The salary or incomes of some of the members of family 51% Sale of products of the part-time farm 17% Use of products of the part-time farm 33% Social benefits 33%
LIVELIHOOD The help of relatives/Friends in a form of money or food and goods 15%
BASIC SOURCESOF Something else 2% Don't know/No answer 3% Chisinau 22% Mid-sized/Small town 22%
NTTYPE Rural area 56% SETTLEME 0% 50% 100% 46 International Republican Institute (202) 408-9450 | [email protected] www.IRI.org | @IRIGlobal