Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova September 20 – October 20, 2014 International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Magenta Consulting. • Data was collected throughout Moldova September 20 – October 20, 2014 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home. • The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Moldova 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. • All regions of Moldova were surveyed (excluding Transnistria). Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures: • Stage one: districts of Moldova are grouped into 11 groups. • Stage two: selection of the settlements – cities and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of settlement in each region. • Stage three: primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. • Response rate was 62 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy. 2 Increased Support for Pro-European Parties International Republican Institute Moldovan Parliamentary Parties Ruling Pro-European Coalition (holds 53 of 101 seats) • Liberal Democratic Party – 31 seats • Democratic Party – 15 seats • Liberal Reformist Party – 7 seats Independent Parties • Liberal Party – 5 seats, split from the ruling coalition in February 2013, supports European Union accession Current Parliamentary Opposition (holds 43 of 101 seats) • Communist Party – 34 seats • Party of Socialists – 4 seats • Smaller Parties/Independents – 5 seats 4 Which of the parties would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday? Likely voters, n=952 Liberal Democratic Party 22% Ruling Pro-European Coalition = 37% Democratic Party 14% Liberal Reformist Party 1% Liberal Party 8% Communist Party 23% Party of Socialists 6% Republican Popular Party 10% People's Anti-Mafia Movement 1% Other 4% None 1% Don't know/Refused to answer 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 5 Are you going to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Don't know/No answer Sep-14 64% 15% 4% 6% 11% Jun-14 77% 15% 3% 4% 1% Jan-12 50% 31% 6% 3% 10% Dec-11 66% 21% 4% 3% 6% Aug-11 47% 33% 6% 4% 10% Sep-10 47% 34% 5% 2% 12% May-10 53% 32% 3%2% 10% Feb-10 55% 30% 3%3% 9% Nov-09 59% 28% 2%3% 9% Nov-08 58% 31% 4% 2%5% 61% Apr-08 23% 4% 3% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6 What is your opinion about the job the Pro-European Coalition is doing? Very good job Rather good job Rather bad job Very bad job Don’t know/No answer Sep-14 18% 30% 19% 24% 9% 8% Jun-14 38% 30% 15% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7 If Moldova was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be with? The European Union The Customs Union/Eurasian Union Other Don’t know/No answer Sep-14 46% 42% 1% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8 If a referendum was held today on Moldova joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), how would you vote? For Moldova joining NATO Against Moldova joining NATO Would not vote Don’t know/No answer Sep-14 31% 31% 15% 23% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9 How would you assess the current relations between Moldova and the following entities? Good Bad Neither good, nor bad Don't know/No answer 13% 9% 7% European Union 71% Romania 68% 12% 12% 8% Ukraine 60% 14% 19% 7% United States 59% 10% 15% 16% Russia 38% 51% 7% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partners for Moldova? Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest economic threat to Moldova? Partner Threat 60% 57% 56% 50% 44% 40% 37% 30% 30% 28% 21% 20% 16% 17% 11% 10% 9% 10% 8% 2% 0% Russia European Romania Ukraine United States None Don't Union know/No answer 11 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important political partners for Moldova? Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest political threat to Moldova? Partner Threat 60% 50% 50% 48% 43% 40% 29% 30% 28% 23% 20% 21% 20% 18% 13% 14% 10% 10% 8% 2% 0% European Russia Romania United States Ukraine None Don't Union know/No answer 12 Moldovans Concerned about Russia’s Actions in the Region International Republican Institute Who is responsible for the blockage of some Moldovan exports to Russia? First mentioned Second mentioned Russian government 47% 14% Moldovan government 18% 17% Russian businesses 10% 25% Ukrainian government 6% 2% Moldovan producers 4% 9% The European Union 4% 9% Don't know/No answer 11% 24% 14 What should Moldova do in response to the Russian blockage of some Moldovan exports? 1% Seek other markets for Moldovan 6% goods 12% Try to reason with Russia to accept Moldovan goods but without changing the priority of foreign policy of Moldova 44% Fully support the policy of Russia in order to win Russia’s support Other 37% Don’t know/No answer 15 Given the current Russian activities in Ukraine, do you consider Russian troops in Transnistria to be a threat to Moldova? They are a real threat to Moldova They are maybe a threat to Moldova, depending on events in Ukraine They are not a real threat to Moldova Don’t know/No answer Sep-14 46% 28% 21% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16 What do you think the future of Transnistria should be? Ordinary region of Moldova, without any autonomy Autonomy within the Republic of Moldova 0%0% A part of the Russian Federation A part of Ukraine 0%0% Independent Don't know/No answer Sep-14 60% 15% 8% 2% 11% 4% Jun-14 67% 16% 7% 1% 6% 3% Jan-12 66% 16% 7% 7% 4% Dec-11 66% 17% 6%1% 5% 4% Aug-11 61% 20% 6%1% 8% 4% Feb-11 60% 18% 5% 8% 9% Sep-10 65% 16% 3%1% 7% 8% May-10 72% 12% 2% 8% 6% Feb-10 68% 17% 4%1% 5% 5% Nov-09 69% 18% 2%1%5% 6% Nov-08 68% 19% 1%4% 7% Apr-08 65% 21% 2%1%4% 7% Mar-07 61% 21% 3% 4% 11% Apr-06 80% 12% 1% 2% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17 How do you evaluate the following recent events in Ukraine? Positively Indifferently Negatively Don't know/No answer Removal of the President V.Yanukovich 46% 20% 15% 19% Appointment of A.Yatseniuk as Prime 38% 25% 14% 22% Minister of Ukraine Election of P.Poroshenko as the 32% 32% 16% 20% President of Ukraine Referendum on self-rule held in Eastern Ukraine 30% 18% 28% 24% on May 11, 2014 Crimea joining Russia 19% 14% 55% 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 18 Who do you believe is responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine? Previous Ukrainian government New Ukrainian government Russia European Union Certain groups of Ukrainian people Other Sep-14 23% 9% 40% 8% 8% 3% 9% Jun-14 26% 9% 28% 8% 10% 4% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19 Moldovans are Concerned about the Economy & Corruption International Republican Institute What are the most important problems that Moldova is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Unemployment 34% Corruption 32% Low income 31% High prices/Inflation 11% Bad government/President 10% Emigration 10% Poverty 10% Roads 9% European integration 6% Political crisis 5% Indifference of the people 4% Economic situation 4% Instability/Chaos in the country 3% Education problems 3% Crime 3% Disruption of exports to Russia 3% Social assistance 2% The problems with European and Eurasian unions 2% Economic development 2% Healthcare system 2% Don't know/No answer 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 21 What are the most important problems your town/village is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Roads 40% Unemployment 23% Low income 11% Cleanliness 11% Transportation 8% High prices/Inflation 7% Insufficient streets lighting 6% Water supply 6% Sanitation 6% Corruption 6% Gas supply 4% Poverty 4% Emigration 4% Expensive housing/Utilities 3% Inefficient work of civil servants 3% Education 2% Social assistance 2% Traffic jams 2% Healthcare system 2% Crime 2% Don't know/No answer 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 22 What are the most important problems facing you and your household? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Low incomes 46% Unemployment 14% Inflation/High prices 10% Insufficient streets lighting 9% Poverty 9% Expensive housing/Utilities 8% Health 6% Emigration 3% Expensive drugs and medical services 3% Lonliness 3% Lack of social assistance 3% Lack of housing 3% Corruption 2% Don't know/No answer 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 23 Is corruption a big problem in Moldova today? 0%0%0% It is a very big issue It is a big issue It is not a big issue 0% It is not an issue at all Don't know/No answer Sep-14 73% 18% 5% 1%3% Jun-14 81% 14% 1%1%3% Jan-12 73% 21% 2% 3% Dec-11 80% 15% 2%1%2% Aug-11 61% 29% 3%1%6% Feb-11 59% 33% 3%1% 4% Sep-10 57% 31% 4% 1% 7% May-10 53% 37% 4% 1%5% Feb-10 58% 33% 4% 2%3% Nov-09 61% 31% 3% 5% Nov-08 62% 27% 4% 1% 6% Apr-08 60% 25% 5% 10% Mar-07 64% 26% 2% 8% Mar-06 66% 25% 3% 5% Nov-04 72% 24% 2%2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 24 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Moldova changed? Improved a lot