Results and Outlook
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Results and Outlook February 2021 TotalEnergies : More energy, Less emissions Safety, Total’s core value Cornerstone of operational efficiency & sustainability Protecting our employees and partners Total Recordable Injury Rate for Total and peers* Per million man-hours 65 M masks delivered to 110 countries 1.5 7 M gloves delivered to 50 countries 1. 05 1.0 Hydroalcoholic gel produced in 6 countries 0.74 COVID impact on million hours worked: 0. only 8% less than 2019 0.5 73 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 One fatality in 2020 Continuity of operations * Peers: BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell 2020 Results and Outlook | 3 Transforming Total into a broad energy company : TotalEnergies Gases • Grow LNG (#2 player) and develop renewable gas (biogas / clean H 2) • Promote natural gas for power and mobility Renewables & Electricity • Accelerate investments in low carbon electricity primarily from renewables • Integrate along the electricity chain (production, storage, trading, supply) Liquids • Focus investments on low cost oil and renewable fuels (biofuels, SAF…) • Adapt refining capacity and sales to demand in Europe Carbon Sinks • Invest in carbon sinks (NBS and CCUS) Total will become TotalEnergies creating long-term value for shareholders 2020 Results and Outlook | 4 Growing energy production Mboe/d PJ/d 4 Electrons ~120 TWh Renewable gas 20 3 Gas 2 10 Renewable fuels 1 Oil 2019 2030 LNG and Electricity driving Profitable Growth 2020 Results and Outlook | 5 Growing sales while adapting to demand Energy sold to our customers PJ 12,000 % in sales Electrons 15% Renewable gas 5% 50% 40% Natural Gas Renewable fuels 55% 35% Oil products 2019 2030 2020 Results and Outlook | 6 Reducing emissions while growing Commitments to reduce Scope 3 emissions of our customers, in absolute value Scope 3 emissions* MtCO2e 400 Other regions Europe Covid 200 impact -30% Europe 2015 2020 2030 Europe: -30% by 2030 on the way to Net Zero by 2050 Worldwide: 2030 lower than 2015 * From energy products used by our customers (GHG Protocol Category 11) 2020 Results and Outlook | 7 New commitment on Scope 1 & 2: - 40% 2030 vs 2015 while growing Scope 1 & 2 emissions from operated oil and gas facilities MtCO2e 46 Net* emissions 36 -40% < 40 vs 2015 40 Covid impact Acquisitions 3 & start-ups 25-30 since 2015 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2050 On the way to Net Zero across Total’s worldwide operations by 2050 * Net of carbon sinks 2020 Results and Outlook | 8 Getting to Net Zero Total shares the ambition to get to Net Zero by 2050 together with society for its global business (Scope 1+2+3) 2020* 3 major steps to get Total to Net Zero vs 2015 Net Zero on Operations by 2050 or sooner 1 -15% (Scope 1+2) Net Zero in Europe by 2050 or sooner 2 -12% (Scope 1+2+3) 60% or more Net Carbon Intensity reduction 3 -8% by 2050 (Scope 1+2+3) * Excluding Covid impact 2020 Results and Outlook | 9 Sustainability at the heart of Total’s transformation CDP A- Best score ex aequo in O&G sector ENVIRONMENT SOCIAL GOVERNANCE MSCI A Best score ex aequo in O&G sector ISS ESG B- Only major with Prime status Climate ambition to Responsible employer: Environmental and since 2006 Net Zero no lay-offs despite crisis social challenges integrated in all Board Biodiversity new decisions Sustainalytics commitments 2025 new diversity ESG rating risks: 27.1 CEO compensation: Advocacy consistent ambition 30% women Best O&G major score • reduced during crisis with our climate in all management • linked to ESG factors ambition bodies (25% of variable part and LTI) Bloomberg intelligence Carbon transition score: 9.33/10 Transparency through additional ESG reporting Best O&G score TCFD, SASB, WEF, WDI 2020 Results and Outlook | 10 Embedding climate ambition into financing policy Sustainability Linked Bonds: the “new normal” at TotalEnergies • All new bond issues to be Climate KPI-linked • Favoring long maturities • Measurable KPIs Scope 1+2 oil & gas operated emissions Scope 3 absolute emissions and/or carbon intensity objectives • Verified by external auditors 2020 Results and Outlook | 11 Market environment 2020 Energy demand reveals contrasted dynamics by energy World GDP and demand evolution 2020 vs. 2019 (%) ~-4% ~-5% ~-9% ~+3% ~+13% World GDP Energy Oil LNG Electricity from Wind + Solar LNG and Renewables: key contributors to the energy transition Sources: IMF, WEO 2020 (IEA), Rystad Energy, BNEF and Total analysis 2020 Results and Outlook | 13 Oil: risk of medium-term supply crunch Oil supply-demand outlook to 2025 Mb/d > 10 Mb/d unidentified 2020 highlights OPEC+ quotas 100 • Effectiveness of OPEC+ in managing unpredictable ? 2020 Demand short-term oil demand Post-FID Shale supply ~5%/y Conventional net growth • Uncertainty on US shale Conventional start-ups oil decline dynamics • Underinvestment in conventional oil • Resilient Asian demand 50 2020 2025 Supply* Expected demand More investments on new projects required Source: IEA, Rystad Energy, Wood Mackenzie, Oxford Economics, Lambert Energy Advisory, Total analysis * Including biofuels and refinery processing gains 2020 Results and Outlook | 14 Gas: growing LNG demand despite economic downturn LNG demand 2020 highlights Mt +3% Demand +12% • LNG demand (+3%) outpacing gas (-2%) 350 in Covid crisis • Demand elasticity • Asian energy policies favoring LNG Supply • Only 2 LNG project FIDs 200 (NLNG T7, ECA) 2018 2019 2020 • LNG supply chain more in China +12% +11% tension than expected India +4% +15% Source: Rystad Energy, IHS Waterborne, Total analysis 2020 Results and Outlook | 15 2020: Resilient in the storm Investing for growth – maintaining dividend – controlling gearing 2020 cash flow allocation Net-debt-to-capital B$ %, Total vs. peers*, excluding leases 10 20 30 Working capital Debt 5.6 Capital 13.0 investment CFFO 15.7 Return to 7.2 shareholder Sources Uses Discipline in cash flow allocation * Estimated for peers (BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell) 2020 Results and Outlook | 17 Delivered action plan to weather the storm May 2020 Action plan Realized Reduce < 14 B$ 13 B$ Capital investment Capital vs 18 B$ Ability to flex Capex investments Maintain 2 B$ 2 B$ Renewables & Electricity Opex 1 B$ Cost savings vs. 2019 1.1 B$ Cost culture Savings vs 0.3 B$ Low-breakeven high-quality portfolio at the heart of the resilience Pre-dividend organic breakeven ~26 $/b 2020 Results and Outlook | 18 Discipline on costs While preserving workforce competencies Opex savings vs. 2019 Production costs* B$ $/boe 1.6 B$ +0.5 B$ 15 1.1 B$ Exxon 1.0 B$ 9.9 Chevron 10 Shell 0.3 B$ BP 5.4 5.1 5 2020 2020 2020 2021 2014 2020 2021 initial revised Realization objective objective Accelerating Best in class new sustainable savings targeting 5 $/boe * ASC 932 2020 Results and Outlook | 19 2021: prudent capital planning in uncertain environment Flexibility to mobilize short cycle capex Capital investment* Capex savings 2020 B$ vs original budget of ~18 B$ B$ 17.4 ~5 B$ 13.0 12 Net acquisitions Downstream Upstream projects rescheduling Flexibility on Upstream short cycle 2019 2020 2021 Brent ($/b) 64 42 40 Renewables & Electricity > 20% * Capital investment = Organic Capex + acquisitions – disposals 2020 Results and Outlook | 20 Maintaining dividend through the cycle Quarterly dividends since start of oil crisis 2020 TSR* % 100% Chevron Exxon BP Chevron Exxon 50% BP Shell Shell -40% -20% Q1’20 Q2’20 Q3’20 Q4’20 Building long-term trust with shareholders * Source: Bloomberg 2020 Results and Outlook | 21 Positive benchmark vs peers 2020 adjusted net income* 2020 CFFO** B$ B$ 5 15 2019-20 impairments* 2020 ROE* B$ % 10 Peer group: BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell * Estimated for peers, and for BP, excluding 7.6 B$ recurring write-off ** Excl. working capital variation 2020 Results and Outlook | 22 Transforming while keeping focus on HSE, delivery, cost and cash Renewables: increasing scale, growing ambition Renewables gross installed capacity Gross portfolio to 2025 GWp GWp 10 GW In operation In construction 10 7 GW 5 35 GW Adani Green (20%) In development 2018 2019 2020 2021 Gross organic Capex ~5 B$ in 2021 2025 GW target in portfolio > 10% Equity IRR for all projects 2020 Results and Outlook | 24 Renewables: capturing early stage opportunities at low entry cost Keeping up 2020 momentum Major building block of st Renewables strategy 1 steps in US Offshore wind feeding utility scale projects post 2025 pipeline 1.6 + 2.2 20% of Adani Up to GW Green Energy 1.5 GW 800 MW 3 GW 5 GW 1.5 GW Qatar India Spain UK USA India UK 10 GW in 2020 > 10 GW 2021 YTD More to come 1st large solar Partnership Entered 1st giant 50/50 JV with Hanwha ~20 GWp of contracted 50/50 GIG (Macquarie) plant in Qatar with Adani solar market offshore wind capacity – Total Sunchase pipeline (Texas) in India in Spain project in UK AGEL objective: 25 GWac Round 4 award 12+4 solar & storage = 32 GWp by 2025 projects N°1 solar developer in Start-ups over 2020-24 the world* Phased premium 2 B$ equity investment payments 2021 Hybrid bond to finance renewables 3 B€ – average coupon 1.9% Highly competitive cost of capital * Source Mercom capital 2020 Results and Outlook | 25 Deep Dive in Total Renewables business Total Solar Adani Green Total Distributed Total Quadran Total EREN Offshore Wind International Energy Ltd generation 100% 30% 100% 100% 20% 100% Solar in Europe, Solar and onshore Solar and onshore Solar and wind in Fixed bottom in UK Global business US and Middle wind in France wind worldwide India (JVs) 100% except JV East (50/50) with Option to acquire Floating offshore in Envision for China 50/50 JV with 100% in 2023 South Korea, UK AGEL in India and France (JVs) SunPower (52% stake) in US 3.3 GW 1 GW 1.9 GW - GW - GW 0.8 GW Priority to developing utility scale portfolio Gross capacity end-2020 2020 Results and Outlook | 26 Renewables delivering predictable long-term cash flow In development In development In operation In construction to 2025 post-2025 7 GW 5 GW 23 GW 4 GW Net : 3.1 Net : 3 Net : 21 Net : 2 Covered by PPA Covered by PPA Covered by PPA Covered by PPA > 99% 90% Already 40% Average remaining Average duration Average duration duration Offshore wind PPAs 21 years 20 years under negotiation ~18 years Offtaker: ~60% state, Offtaker: > 95% state Offtaker: 99% state ~40% corporate av.