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Open Access Version Via Utrecht University Repository Understanding Conflict Dynamics: A Comparative Analysis of Ethno-Separatist Conflicts in India and the Philippines Voor een beter begrip van conflictdynamiek: een vergelijkende analyse van etnisch- seperatistische conflicten in India en de Filippijnen (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof.dr. G.J. van der Zwaan, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op vrijdag 18 oktober 2013 des middags te 2.30 uur door Alastair Grant Reed geboren op 7 december 1978 te Oxford, United Kingdom PROMOTOREN: Prof.dr. D.A. Hellema Prof.dr. B.G.J. de Graaff Prof.dr. I.G.B.M. Duyvesteyn This thesis was accomplished with financial support from the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (NWO). CONTENTS Acknowledgements ix 1 Introduction 1 The research question 3 A survey of theories on irregular conflicts 7 Causes of conflicts 9 How conflicts progress after they have started 15 The role of the state 21 The population and popular support 26 The role of peace processes 28 Theories of foreign support/international relations 30 Theories on geography 31 How violence ends 33 Theoretical insights 35 The research model 36 Research design 44 Case study selection 49 Why Asia? 51 Originality claim 56 2 The Naga Insurgency 59 Part 1: The background to the conflict 59 Part 2: The phases of the Naga Insurgency 64 Phase 1: 1947 to 1957 – a national struggle 65 Phase 2: 1957 to 1964 – the road to statehood 75 and the first divisions Phase 3: 1964 to 1968 – the search for peace 82 Phase 4: 1968 to 1975 – a military solution to a political problem 89 Phase 5: 1975 to 1988 – into the East – 98 the rise of the NSCN from the ashes of the NNC Phase 6: 1988 to 1997 – back into India 108 Phase 7: 1997 to 2005 – peace with India, war with brothers 127 Part 3: Analysis of the Naga Insurgency 135 3 The Punjab Crisis: The Fight for Khalistan 163 Part 1: The background to the conflict 164 Part 2: The phases of the conflict 173 Phase 1: Out of the frying pan, into the fire (1978-1984) 173 Phase 2: Chasing the political solution (1985-1987) 187 Phase 3: Tackling the militants for the first time (1987-1989) 195 Phase 4: Taking the ‘foot off the gas’ – 212 political instability (1989-1991) Phase 5: The return of Gill – the Endgame (1991-1994) 223 Part 3: Analysis of the Punjab Crisis 238 4 The Moro Rebellion in the Southern Philippines 265 Part 1: Mindanao – Historical background to the conflict 265 Part 2: The phases of the conflict 278 Phase 1: Mid-1960s to 1972 – the conflict brews 278 Phase 2: 1972 to 1976 – from martial law to war 296 Phase 3: 1976 to 1986 – a failed peace 310 Phase 4: 1986 to 1992 – a new president, a new hope 322 Phase 5: 1992 to 1998 – peace at last 331 Epilogue 343 Part 3: Analysis of the Moro Rebellion 348 5 Analysis and Conclusions 379 Part 1: Analysis of each case study 379 The Naga Insurgency 380 The Punjab Crisis 391 The Moro Rebellion 400 Part 2: Analysis – understanding the progression of the conflicts 411 Appendices 457 Appendix 1: Glossary of Terms – The Naga Insurgency 457 Appendix 2: Glossary of Terms – The Punjab Crisis 459 Appendix 3: Glossary of Terms – The Moro Rebellion 461 Appendix 4: Primary Sources – The Naga Insurgency 462 Appendix 5: Primary Sources – The Punjab Crisis 465 Appendix 6: Primary Sources – The Moro Rebellion 467 Bibliography 469 Samenvatting van het proefschrift (Summary in Dutch) 481 Curriculum Vitae 488 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Although researching and writing this thesis has often been a solitary process, I could only have reached this point with the help, support and encouragement of others. First of all, thanks must go to Utrecht University and the former Institute for History and Culture (OGC) for providing this opportunity and their institutional support. I want to thank my three promoters, Prof. dr. Duco Hellema, Prof. dr Bob de Graaff, and Prof. dr. Isabelle Duyvesteyn. I would like to thank Isabelle for setting up this project, for giving me this great opportunity, and for her encouragement, inspiration and constructive criticism throughout the last four years. I am grateful to Duco for his much appreciated advice and his calm guidance through the PhD process. Bob, finally, deserves a big thank you for his academic and personal support, especially during the last stages of the thesis. I am also very grateful to Dr. José van Aelst for her help and support guiding me through all things PhD. Thanks to NWO, for the financial support that made this project possible. I am especially indebted to my research team in the History of Counterterrorism project: Prof. dr. Isabelle Duyvesteyn, Dr. Jörg Le Blanc and Bart Schuurman. A special thanks goes to Jörg and Bart, my colleagues and roommates, who made the PhD process so enjoyable. As a project team, we created a dynamic environment in which the thesis took form. It was very much a collaborative experi- ence, and so many of the ideas and concepts behind the work were developed through constant discussion and debates within the team, at ix Understanding ConfliCt dynamiCs lunch or over coffee. I would also like to thank Dr. John Harrison and Nanyang Technological University, for their help in the initial stages. I am, moreover, indebted to all the participants of the September 2010 Expert Workshop in Utrecht on Escalation Processes in Irregular War for the feedback on my research, especially Prof. Ved Marwah, Prof. Anuradh Chenoy and Dr. Namrata Goswami. Conducting the field research was the most exciting – and also challenging – part of my research. I owe a huge debt of gratitude to the many people in India and the Philippines, including my reseach assistants, who went out of their way to help a stranger from a strange land, took me into their homes and their lives, and made this research possible. And most importantly of all, my heartfelt thanks go to all those I interviewed for sharing and trusting me with your experiences and sometimes painful memories. I hope that I have been able to do you justice. As always the devil is in the detail, and I am indebted to the diligent work of my editor Sarah in producing the final manuscript. However, a great deal of thanks is due to all those who helped me with editing and proofreading along the way, especially Caroline, Ed, Alex, Jen, Kathy and Diana. Throughout my PhD I have made many great friends along the way. I’ve greatly appreciated the collective camaraderie of all my fellow OGC PhD colleagues: in particular Bart, Bart, Jacco, Rutger, Harm, Maarten, Tijana, Marjolijn, Anne Marieke, René and Laurien. I would also like to extend my thanks to my colleagues at the UCU during the final six months of my thesis, especially Patricia, Anthony, Nora and Jocelyn, for helping me out when I was striving to make my final deadlines. I am also very grateful for the help and support of my two Paranimfs, Jörg and René, who were not only great colleagues but also became great friends; their friendship and encouragement have helped me enjoy the good times and seen me through the many challenges of PhD life. I am very lucky to have many good friends who have supported and encouraged me along the way, especially Caroline, Alex, Jennie, Ruud, Judith, Diana (Bestie), Nacho, David, Emily, Jen, Ed, Lea, Derek, Mark, Keith and all my friends back in Reading. All the way through this endeavour my family has been a constant x Acknowledgements source of support and encouragement, especially my parents, sister and brother-in-law. And also my nieces and nephew who although too young to understand my work, were captivated by my adventures in Asia with Mr Tiger. As I was writing these acknowledgements, I cast my mind back to my childhood, when I was diagnosed with dyslexia. Few at the time would have foreseen that I would go on to write a doctoral thesis. Recognition for this must go to all my extra English teachers over the years, whose help and perseverance allowed me to pursue my chosen path. In particular, very special thanks must go to Diana Brown. Without her continued support I would never have reached this point. Thank you for everything; you made this all possible. And last but not least, where would I be without the many wonder- ful cafés of Utrecht and Amsterdam in which much of this thesis was written; thank you for your never-ending supply of good coffee and apple cake that kept me going through the bad times and the good! xi 1 INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION The initial point of departure for this project had been to examine the effectiveness of different state countermeasures in confronting terrorism and insurgency. It soon became apparent that to be able to properly analyse the effectiveness of countermeasures, it was necessary to understand what factors were driving and sustaining the conflicts. Whilst state countermeasures played a key role in affecting the direction of violence, there were numerous other dimensions to the evolution of the conflicts. Identifying these dimensions and exploring how they interacted to drive the violence became the new focus. This was a key turning point as the research shifted to understanding armed struggles as a whole and seeking to explain how and why they escalate and de- escalate. In short, the focus turned towards conflict dynamics.
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