The Causes and Consequences of State Repression in Internal Armed Conflict: Sub-State Capacity and the Targets of State Violence
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University of New Mexico UNM Digital Repository Political Science ETDs Electronic Theses and Dissertations 9-5-2013 The aC uses and Consequences of State Repression in Internal Armed Conflict: Sub-State Capacity and the Targets of State Violence Philip Hultquist Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/pols_etds Recommended Citation Hultquist, Philip. "The aC uses and Consequences of State Repression in Internal Armed Conflict: Sub-State Capacity and the Targets of State Violence." (2013). https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/pols_etds/10 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Electronic Theses and Dissertations at UNM Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science ETDs by an authorized administrator of UNM Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Philip Hultquist Candidate Political Science Department This dissertation is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication: Approved by the Dissertation Committee: Christopher K. Butler, Chairperson William Stanley Mark Peceny Neil Mitchell i THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF STATE REPRESSION IN INTERNAL ARMED CONFLICT: SUB-STATE CAPACITY AND THE TARGETS OF STATE VIOLENCE by PHILIP HULTQUIST B.S., Government and Public Affairs, Missouri Western State University, 2004 M.A., Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2007 DISSERTATION Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Political Science The University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico July, 2013 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank everyone who has supported me while completing my doctoral degree and especially while writing this dissertation. To do so, however, would result in an acknowledgements section much longer than the dissertation. First, I must acknowledge the Department of Political Science at the University of New Mexico. Nearly every faculty member in the department has furthered my intellectual development in some way, either by teaching for my coursework, reading drafts of my papers, or answering my questions about the discipline, research, or teaching. I learned a great deal from the time I spent working for Mala Htun, Tim Krebs, Fred Harris, and Peter Kierst. I thank the entire department for creating an environment that is, not only intellectually stimulating, but open and inviting. I also want to thank the staff, especially Shoshana Handel, Joann Buehler, and Beth Leahy, who always made time to help and encourage me. Most of all among the faculty at UNM, my dissertation committee must be recognized for their unending efforts. Chris Butler, the chair, has been an ongoing source of assistance. In working for Chris since my second semester as a Master’s student, he has guided me along the research process across several projects, his and mine. Although I did not always go in the direction he wanted me to (usually toward formal modeling), Chris’s mentorship has taught me more about research, the discipline, and teaching than I could possibly convey in these acknowledgements. Chris has become a true friend who simultaneously inspires and pushes me to work, try, and, most importantly, think harder. I will truly miss informal office hours at Two Fools Tavern, where Chris could thoughtfully discuss international politics and critically analyze the refereeing of an Arsenal game at the same time. The remainder of the committee is exceptional as well. Bill Stanley’s understanding of conflict processes on the ground is unmatched. His help in developing theory and preparing for fieldwork was particularly beneficial, especially in navigating an overzealous IRB review process. I will continually admire (and unsuccessfully emulate) Bill’s command of the English language. Mark Peceny’s understanding of international politics, writ large, is immeasurable. In addition to being an often-need source of comedic relief, Mark’s ability to give criticism with a smile on his face not only makes that criticism easier to take, but, no doubt plays a role in making him a great Dean for the College of Arts and Sciences. Neil Mitchell has provided encouragement and helpful comments at numerous stages. He also generously gave me a job working with his pro- government militia data, which was, not only a great learning experience, but saved me from landscaping to pay rent that summer. I also received helpful comments from presenting parts of this dissertation in a variety of formats. I was invited to present one chapter at a workshop of the Program for Order, Conflict, and Violence at Yale University where I received numerous helpful comments for that chapter, as well as several for how to proceed with future iterations of the project. From that workshop, I should especially recognize the comments from Stahis Kalyvas, Elizabeth Wood, and Steven Wilkinson (via email), but also from the audience including the discussant, Suparna Choudhry, Andres Vargas, and Javier Osorio. I apologize to those I have left out. The work also benefited from multiple presentations at the IR workshop and a writing group held in the Department of Political Science. I iii presented earlier versions of these chapters, as stand-alone papers, at three meetings of the International Studies Association, where I received especially helpful comments from Reed Wood and (on three separate occasions) from Andrea Lopez. Fieldwork in India for the dissertation was made possible by several grants and many people. I thank the Department of Political Science, which awarded me the generous Dylan Balch-Lindsay Graduate Fellowship. From the University of New Mexico, I received generous grants from the Graduate Research Supplement, the Dean’s Dissertation Scholarship, the Research Project and Travel grant, and the Student Conference Award Program from Careers Services. Each of which made travel, to conferences or India, possible. Eric Jepsen from the University of South Dakota wrote a kind letter of support for my research to the IRB review board. Grant Burrier set me up with my now good friend Fehl Canon, who graciously gave me rent-free quarter in India. My fellow graduate students at the University of New Mexico have been constructive in a number of ways, directly or indirectly. They have all made themselves available to bounce ideas off of, blow off steam with, and celebrate every milestone, large or small. I have used them for this purpose on many occasions. Although I know I cannot name them all, Grant Burrier, Ron Nikora, Jason Morin, Meg Edwards, Prakash Adhikari, James Timberlake, Michele Leiby, Steve Samford, Yuri Bosin, Mike Wolff, Ben Bonin, Lisa Bryant, and Eric Wallace have been particularly useful for these tasks. Largely because of the friendship I made here, I will always remember my time in graduate school fondly. The institutions where I have studied have provided a great deal of support. The University of New Mexico has been a great place for graduate study. I thank the taxpayers of New Mexico for supporting a great institution where my graduate colleagues and I received top-quality training. Missouri Western State University, where I completed my undergraduate degree, employed all of the great faculty members that led me to this career, including Jonathon Euchner, David Tushaus, Frank Kessler, and Denise Smith. Among this group, Dan Cox deserves recognition for his tremendous teaching, which, not only piqued my interest in international and comparative politics, but inspired me to become a university professor as well. In doing so, he showed me how a thoughtful teacher could change their students’ lives. I also want to thank my parents, Ron and Sharon Hultquist, for…everything. I could not ask for better parents. Last, but most important, my wife Maria has provided unfathomable support for my academic pursuits. She has put up with long hours, late nights, unintelligible rants, and a husband who earns a graduate student income. She has done all of this without complaining once. Instead, she encouraged me at every step. I look forward to the life we build together as we move on to the next stage. iv THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF STATE REPRESSION IN INTERNAL ARMED CONFLICT: SUB-STATE CAPACITY AND THE TARGETS OF STATE VIOLENCE by Philip Hultquist B.S., Government and Public Affairs, Missouri Western State University, 2004 M.A., Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2007 Ph.D., Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2013 ABSTRACT Using a mixed-method design, my dissertation examines three interrelated puzzles of state violence during counterinsurgency campaigns. First, why does state repressive violence effectively thwart rebellion is some cases while escalating it in others? Using simultaneous equation modeling on 139 cases, I find that collective (or indiscriminate) state violence is associated with a long-lasting backlash effect against the government, while selective (i.e., individual-level) state targeting is expected to deter rebellion effectively. The second puzzle is why are states so seldom selective and so frequently collective in their use of violence? I argue that the scope of state violence is in, in part, a function of the capacities of the state agencies in the security sector tasked with counterinsurgency. State agents with high coercive capacity (e.g., national militaries) tend to lack sufficient local sources to identify and target insurgents at the individual level. Most local security organizations (e.g., police) that would otherwise have access to local intelligence lack the organizational competence to exploit this knowledge and v become an efficient counterinsurgency force. The result is to rely on information about collectives (locations, ethnic groups, etc.) and target accordingly, which is associated with an escalation of the threat. This argument is supported by the first two stages of the Punjab crisis in India, where initial police attempts at thwarting rising extremism were incompetent and the army’s heavy-handed approach produced a backlash against the government. Selective targeting requires local intelligence capacity and competent organizational capacity.