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Russi-Monitor-Monthl
MONTHLY May 2020 CONTENTS 3 17 28 POLAND AND DENMARK BEGIN BELARUS RAMPS UP RUSSIAN ECONOMY COMES CONSTRUCTION OF BALTIC DIVERSIFICATION EFFORTS BADLY BECAUSE OF PANDEMIC PIPE PROJECT TO CHALLENGE WITH U.S. AND GULF CRUDE RUSSIAN GAS DOMINANCE PURCHASES POLAND AND DENMARK BEGIN CONSTRUCTION OF BALTIC PIPE PROJECT CORONAVIRUS IN RUSSIA: BAD NEWS FOR 3 TO CHALLENGE RUSSIAN GAS DOMINANCE 20 THE COUNTRY MOSCOW: THE CAPITAL RUSSIA UNVEILS RESCUE PLAN FOR OIL 5 OF RUSSIAN CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK 22 SECTOR VLADIMIR PUTIN SUFFERS PRESTIGIOUS 6 FAILURE IN VICTORY DAY CELEBRATIONS 23 TENSIONS RISE IN THE BLACK SEA RUSSIA EASES LOCKDOWN YET OFFERS ROSNEFT, TRANSNEFT IN NEW FEUD OVER 8 LITTLE SUPPORT TO CITIZENS 25 TRANSPORTATION TARIFFS ROSNEFT’S SECHIN ASKS OFFICIALS FOR NEW TAX RELIEFS DESPITE RECENT GAZPROM IS TURNING TOWARDS CHINA, 10 MISHAPS 27 BUT THERE ARE PROBLEMS FRADKOV REMAINS AT THE HELM OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY COMES BADLY 12 KREMLIN’S “INTELLIGENCE SERVICE” 28 BECAUSE OF PANDEMIC RUSSIA STEPS UP DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS AS RUSSIA AIMS TO BOOST MILITARY FACILITIES 14 KREMLIN AIDE KOZAK VISITS BERLIN 30 IN SYRIA GAZPROM’S NATURAL GAS EXPORT RUSSIA–NATO TENSIONS CONTINUE ON 16 REVENUE DECLINED DRAMATICALLY IN Q1 32 BOTH FLANKS BELARUS RAMPS UP DIVERSIFICATION RUSSIA, BELARUS SQUABBLE OVER GAS EFFORTS WITH U.S. AND GULF CRUDE DELIVERIES IN NEW CHAPTER OF ENERGY 17 PURCHASES 34 WAR RUSSIA’S ROSNEFT HAS NEW OWNERSHIP RUSSIA FACES BIGGEST MILITARY THREAT 19 STRUCTURE BUT SAME CEO 36 FROM WEST, SHOIGU SAYS 2 www.warsawinstitute.org 4 May 2020 POLAND AND DENMARK BEGIN CONSTRUCTION OF BALTIC PIPE PROJECT TO CHALLENGE RUSSIAN GAS DOMINANCE Construction of a major gas pipeline from Norway is to begin in the coming days, Polish President Andrzej Duda said in the morning of May 4. -
The London School of Economics and Political Science State-Led Coercive Takeovers in Putin's Russia: Explaining the Underlying
The London School of Economics and Political Science State-led coercive takeovers in Putin’s Russia: explaining the underlying motives and ownership outcomes Andrew Yorke A thesis submitted to the Department of Government at the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, April 2014 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. Abstract Since Vladimir Putin first became Russia’s President in 2000, the state has played an increasingly active and interventionist role in the economy, including through its involvement in a large number of coercive takeovers of privately-owned businesses. The best known case is the Yukos affair, but there have been many other, less prominent takeovers. These have largely been explained as predatory acts by state officials seeking to enrich themselves or increase their power. This has contributed to the perception that Putin’s Russia is a kleptocracy, with the state given free rein to engage in economically-destructive attacks on property rights. -
Russian Politics and Society, Fourth Edition
Russian Politics and Society Having been fully revised and updated to reflect the considerable changes in Russia over the last decade, the fourth edition of this classic text builds on the strengths of the previous editions to provide a comprehensive and sophisticated analysis on Russian politics and society. In this edition, Richard Sakwa seeks to evaluate the evidence in a balanced and informed way, denying simplistic assumptions about the inevitable failure of the democratic exper- iment in Russia while avoiding facile generalisations on the inevitable triumph of global integration and democratisation. New to this edition: • Extended coverage of electoral laws, party development and regional politics • New chapter on the ‘phoney democracy’ period, 1991–3 • Historical evaluation of Yeltsin’s leadership • Full coverage of Putin’s presidency • Discussion of the development of civil society and the problems of democratic consolidation • Latest developments in the Chechnya conflict • More on foreign policy issues such as Russia’s relationship with NATO and the EU after enlargement, Russia’s relations with other post-Soviet states and the problem of competing ‘near abroads’ for Russia and the West • The re-introduction of the Russian constitution as an appendix • An updated select bibliography • More focus on the challenges facing Russia in the twenty-first century Written in an accessible and lively style, this book is packed with detailed information on the central debates and issues in Russia’s difficult transformation. This makes it the best available textbook on the subject and essential reading for all those concerned with the fate of Russia, and with the future of international society. -
China-Russia Relations in World Politics, 1991-2016
SEEKING LEVERAGE: CHINA-RUSSIA RELATIONS IN WORLD POLITICS, 1991-2016 by Brian G. Carlson A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Baltimore, Maryland April, 2018 © Brian G. Carlson 2018 All rights reserved Abstract In the post-Soviet period, U.S. policymakers have viewed China and Russia as the two great powers with the greatest inclination and capacity to challenge the international order. The two countries would pose especially significant challenges to the United States if they were to act in concert. In addition to this clear policy relevance, the China-Russia relationship poses a number of problems for international relations theory. During this period, China and Russia declined to form an alliance against the United States, as balance-of-power theory might have predicted. Over time, however, the two countries engaged in increasingly close cooperation to constrain U.S. power. These efforts fell short of traditional hard balancing, but they still held important implications for international politics. The actual forms of cooperation were therefore worthy of analysis using concepts from international relations theory, a task that this dissertation attempts. An additional problem concerned Russia’s response to China’s rise. Given the potential threat that it faced, Russia might have been expected to improve relations with the West as a hedge against China’s growing power. Instead, Russia increased its level of diplomatic cooperation with China as its relations with the West deteriorated. This dissertation addresses these problems through a detailed empirical study of the evolution of China-Russia relations from 1991 to 2016, using the within-case method of process tracing. -
Turkmenistan Under Berdimuhamedow
Dismantling Totalitarianism? Tu r k m e n i s t a n u n d e r Berdimuhamedow Slavomír Horák Jan Šír SILK ROAD PAPER March 2009 Dismantling Totalitarianism? Turkmenistan under Berdimuhamedow Slavomír Horák Jan Šír © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, Stockholm-Nacka 13130, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org “Dismantling Totalitarianism? Turkmenistan under Berdimuhamedow” is a Silk Road Paper published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program. The Silk Road Papers Series is the Occasional Paper series of the Joint Center, and addresses topical and timely subjects. The Joint Center is a transatlantic independent and non-profit research and policy center. It has offices in Washington and Stockholm and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. The Joint Center is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program. -
The Political Elite Under Putin by Dmitry Gorenburg
The Political Elite Under Putin By Dmitry Gorenburg Executive Summary Russia’s political elite has undergone relatively little change under Vladimir Putin’s rule. Only sixty people have been ranked twentieth or higher at least once between 2000 and 2019 in the annual Nezavisimaya Gazeta list of the most politically influential Russians. Eighteen people have appeared on every list during this period. The greatest shift in elite composition occurred between 2007 and 2008, with smaller shifts around the presidential elections of 2004 and 2012. Most of the political elite originate in the government bureaucracy in Moscow or St. Petersburg or came to their positions of influence through personal ties to Vladimir Putin, either in St. Petersburg or in the security services. Only ten percent came to power through electoral politics; another ten percent are businessmen who made their money independently of any connections to Vladimir Putin. The elite is fairly evenly divided between individuals who have political influence solely because of their positions in government and individuals who have influence outside of their official role. People in the first group generally drop off the list quickly after leaving government or being demoted, and people in the second group tend to retain influence regardless of their position at any given time and remain influential for extended periods, even after departing government service. Introduction For most of the post-Soviet period, the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta has conducted a monthly survey of Russian political experts. This survey asks its respondents to rank the 100 most politically influential Russians in the previous month. Throughout this period, the newspaper has also published an annual ranking,1 based on the average rank of those mentioned during the previous calendar year. -
E. the Russian Federation, Central Asia, and the Caucasus
CHAPTER 2 REGIONAL DIPLOMACY E The Russian Federation, Central Asia, and the Caucasus the future development of relations between the two Overview countries from a broad perspective. In March 2004 Russian President Vladimir Putin ap- The countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus3 pointed Mikhail Fradkov prime minister and undertook have now been independent for 13 years, and diversifi- a government reshuffle. Later the same month President cation is being observed in their political and economic Putin was reelected as president, gaining over 70% of the development processes. Japan recognizes that the sta- vote. Following a string of terrorist attacks in August and bility and development of these countries are of major September 2004, the president took steps to further cen- importance to the stability of Asia and the Eurasian con- tralize power, including the announcement of a series of tinent as a whole, including East Asia. It has therefore political and social reforms aimed at strengthening na- given active support to these countries’ nation-building tional unity. efforts. In particular then Japanese Minister for Foreign In 2004, close political dialogue between Japan and Affairs Kawaguchi Yoriko visited four Central Asian Russia continued in various forms, including summit countries in August 2004 with a view to strengthening meetings and foreign-ministerial talks,1 on the issue of dialogue with the whole Central Asian region. Her visit the conclusion of a peace treaty and on Japan-Russia co- set up the “Central Asia plus Japan” Dialogue as a frame- operation in a wide range of fields. Dialogue also took work for dialogue between Japan and Central Asia as a place at various levels, including the Japan-Russia Emi- whole, and then Foreign Minister Kawaguchi took part nent Persons’ Council,2 which was established to discuss in the first foreign-ministerial talks in this context. -
Idss Commentaries
RSIS COMMENTARIES (99/2007) RSIS Commentaries are intended to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy relevant background and analysis of contemporary developments. The views of the authors are their own and do not represent the official position of the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced electronically or in print with prior permission from RSIS. Due recognition must be given to the author or authors and the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University. For more information on this, please do not hesitate to email: [email protected] or call 6790 6982 to speak to the Editor of RSIS Commentaries. __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Putin’s Matryoshka Plays Nurfarahislinda M. Ismail 25 September 2007 The matryoshka doll is the most famous Russian souvenir. Considered a phenomenon in world culture, it is a puzzle wrapped inside an enigma, the soul of Russia. President Vladimir Putin’s nomination of little-known Viktor Zubkov as acting prime minister on 12 September 2007, after dismissing his government, has confounded many. Like the matryoshka puzzle, questions arise on how and through whom Putin will continue wielding power after stepping down, and what this could mean for Asia. ON 12 SEPTEMBER 2007, President Vladimir Putin accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and dismissed his government to facilitate the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. Whilst this move was expected, his nomination of the little-known Viktor Zubkov as acting prime minister confounded many. Will Putin continue wielding supreme power after his term ends next year, and if so, how and through whom? Parliamentary elections are due on 2 December 2007, and the presidential election three months later. -
Mikhail Mishustin Approved by Duma As New PM Russian President
Putin launched transition of power: Пятница Mikhail Mishustin approved by Duma 17 января 2020 as new PM Russian president Vladimir Putin launched transition of power The Russian parliament has approved Mikhail Mishustin as new prime minister. Mishustin's appointment is a right tactical move, since the new prime minister should not be associated with neither law enforcement nor liberals. With Mishustin's appointment, there'll be no further direct transition of power. He is viewed as pro-business orientated PM who wants to improve its relations with the state. His actions could improve market sentiment. Mishustin's nomination seen as a start of transition of power is aimed at enhancing efficiency of the government that should become a driver of economic growth. The key goals of the new PM include raising living standards, fighting corruption, increasing transparency of the cabinet and restoring the confidence of non-residents in the Russian market, though reducing political risks depends on the president. Mishustin's reforms could support Russia's president's initiatives of advancing in the Doing business ranking from current 28th to top-20 by end of 2020. Mishustin is not seen as a political power player, he is known as a technocrat who implemented computer systems across the tax agency in a drive that cut evasion and boosted collections. An economics PhD and former president of UFG Capital Partners and managing partner of UFG Asset Management in Russia, he served as a deputy tax minister for five years and became head of the Federal Tax -
Russia Intelligence
RIA61 13/09/07 1:26 Page 1 N°61 - September 13 2007 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS KREMLIN c P. 1-4 Politics & Government Viktor Zubkov : the Petersburg KREMLIN c Viktor Zubkov : the « hard core » takes over Petersburg « hard core » takes over The serious business in anticipation of the succession of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin has just FOCUS begun in Moscow. September 12, the head of government, Mikhail Fradkov, submitted his resig- c Yuri Chayka, a public nation to the Russian president, who accepted it after having given a strong (and apparently sin- prosecutor on a tight-rope cere) homage. A few minutes later, the president of the state Duma, Boris Gryzlov, declared that DIPLOMACY the Kremlin had retained the candidature of the head of the Federal financial monitoring agency c The new Russian priorities (Rosfinmonitoring), Viktor Zubkov, 65, to succeed Mikhail Fradkov. An announcement which in Asia was all the more surprising since the entire corps of Moscow observers took it for granted that in ALERT case of such a reshuffle, Sergey Ivanov would be the next Prime minister. c Mikhail Margelov to head Viktor Zubkov is not an unknown quantity for the readers of Russia Intelligence. In our edition the Council of Europe of last March 2, we revealed his rise in Russian power circles. As a matter of fact, the future Prime parliamentary assembly? minister (his candidature will be confirmed by the parliament September 14) is a part of the Pu- INTERVIEW tinist first circle. Born in 1941 in the Urals, he is a 1965 graduate of the Institute of agriculture in c Alain Blum (EHESS) Leningrad. -
TFPD Paper, October 2005, 95 Pages
SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Hannes Adomeit / Anders Åslund (Eds.) Russia versus the United States and Europe—or “Strategic Triangle”? Developments in Russian Domestic and Foreign Policy, Western Responses, and Prospects for Policy Coordination October 2005 Berlin © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2005 All rights reserved SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] Table of Contents 5 Introduction Russian Domestic Politics 13 Russia on the Eve of Regime Change Nikolay Petrov 2 1 The Logic of Backsliding Lilia Shevtsova 29 Centralization Is Central Eberhard Schneider 35 Western Theories: What Is Their Explanatory Value? Hans-Joachim Spanger Russian, US, and European Interaction on Post-Soviet Territory 43 Ukraine: Implications and Repercussions of the Orange Revolution Anders Åslund 48 Belarus: Coping with the Effects of Color “Revolutions” Rainer Lindner 53 The Caucasus: Coping with the Complexities of Conflict Jörg Himmelreich 59 Central Asia: A New “Great Game”? Uwe Halbach Energy and Its “Strategic” Significance 65 US–Russia Energy Dialogue: Policy, Projects, or Photo Op? Edward C. Chow 73 Russia and the Energy Supply of Europe Roland Götz How Should We Deal with Russia? 8 1 Interests versus Interests in US Policy towards Russia Andrew C. Kuchins 85 The Specific Character of EU–Russia Relations Katrin Bastian / Rolf Schuette 90 Prospects for Coordination of Western Policies Heinrich Vogel 95 Abbreviations Introduction Introduction Russia’s domestic and foreign policies have again become a matter of concern in both Europe and the United States. -
SECURITY INDEX No
INTERNATIONAL EDITION SECURITY INDEX No. 2 (82), SUMMER/FALL 2007 The results of PIR Center's work are of particular interest for the Sergei Lavrov A Russian country's foreign policy agencies, given the relapses into a policy of the Journal on unilateral use of force that have caused small countries to feel that International security is scarce and pushed large countries towards increasing Security weapons procurement. The continuing stagnation in the area of disarmament, though no fault of Russia, along with the increasing potential for conflict in the world as a whole are causes for concern. SECURITYSECURITY Russia has inherited the tradition of fighting for disarmament. Gennady Evstafiev The decrease in its activities in this area has ended. There is every reason to expect that Russia will present proposals aimed, if not at stopping, then at least at slowing the most dangerous aspirations of those who believe that there are neither commonsensical nor other limits to their ambitions. IN EX INNo. 2 (82), EX SinoRussian relations are not only more complicated, but also more Dmitri Trenin DDPublisher: PIR Center — Center for Policy Studies (Russia) Summer/Fall 2007 contradictory than they appear in the speeches of the Russian president and the Chinese Communist Party chairman. Russia's leaders, whatever they say publicly and however strongly they suspect the United States of trying to drive a wedge into "model" SinoRussian relations, will not Gennady Evstafiev DISARMAMENT RETURNS accept a strategic bloc with China. Demographic threats could be woven into the discourse of the March Graeme P. Herd Andrei Frolov IRAN'S DELIVERY SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES 2008 presidential campaign.