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Defence Statistics 1995 Defence Statistics 1995 Research Paper 95/98 13 October 1995 The main aim of this paper, which updates research paper 94/102, is to bring together the more commonly used statistics relating to defence expenditure and manpower and to explain some of the problems involved in using such statistics, particularly when making international comparisons. Readers will also wish to consult Library Research Paper 95/99 Defence Employment 1993-94 which sets out some statistics on defence employment and manpower. Bryn Morgan Social & General Statistics Section House of Commons Library Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Research Paper 95/98 CONTENTS Page 1 Defence expenditure 5 2 Defence manpower 7 3 International comparisons: defence expenditure 11 4 International comparisons: armed forces 12 5 The trident programme 16 Research Paper 95/98 1 Defence Expenditure The principal measure of defence expenditure in the United Kingdom is the defence budget, which covers all expenditure on the Ministry of Defence's programme, and is met from five votes within the Supply Estimates (Class I, Votes 1-5). The defence budget for the years 1979/80 to 1995/96 broken down into expenditure on personnel, equipment and other expenditure is shown in table 1, together with MoD planned defence expenditure to the financial year 1997/98. The figures are given at both outturn prices and constant 1995/96 prices (revalued using the adjusted GDP deflator). The figures at 1995/96 prices should be regarded more as a guide to what that expenditure could have purchased in other sectors of the economy (ie the opportunity cost), rather than as a guide to the volume of defence services/equipment purchased. Table 2 in this paper analyses the defence budget and personnel deployment according to the New Management Strategy which was introduced on 1 April 1991. This comprises a system of management planning centred on the Departmental Plan which established targets for managers throughout the Department and the armed forces, and a system of budgets which provide managers with a cash allocation with some flexibility in the way in which they use it. International comparisons of defence expenditure are examined in section 3 of this paper. Defence Expenditure 1978-79 to 1997-98 1995-96 prices (a) £ billion As % of GDP 35 6.0% Expenditure Plans As % of GDP 30 5.0% 25 4.0% 20 3.0% 15 2.0% 10 1.0% 5 0 0.0% 1978-791979-801980-811981-821982-831983-841984-851985-861986-871987-881988-891989-901990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-961996-971997-98 (a) Using GDP deflator 5 Table 1 Defence Budget Expenditure 1979-80 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 outturn outturn outturn outturn outturn outturn outturn outturn outturn estimates estimates plans plans £ billion Total Expenditure (outturn/estimates prices) (a) 9.2 18.2 18.9 19.1 20.8 22.3 24.6 23.8 23.4 22.8 21.7 .. .. Government Expenditure on Defence (cash prices) 9.4 18.4 18.9 19.2 20.8 21.7 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.2 21.7 21.9 22.3 Government Expenditure on Defence (1995-96 prices) (b) 24.2 28.5 27.8 26.5 26.8 25.9 25.7 24.7 23.8 22.8 21.7 21.3 21.2 As % of GDP 4.6% 4.8% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% percentage of total Expenditure on personnel 42.6% 37.9% 38.2% 39.7% 39.0% 39.5% 40.5% 44.2% 42.0% 41.4% 40.0% .. .. of the Armed Forces 22.9% 20.9% 21.4% 22.5% 21.8% 21.6% 22.4% 23.7% 29.5% 29.0% 28.4% .. .. of the retired Armed Forces 5.0% 5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8% 6.3% 6.6% 8.2% (c) (c) (c) .. .. of civilian staff 14.8% 11.7% 11.1% 11.6% 11.4% 11.6% 11.5% 12.3% 12.5% 12.4% 11.6% .. .. Expenditure on equipment 39.7% 43.4% 43.9% 42.1% 41.1% 39.6% 39.7% 36.7% 39.3% 39.0% 41.3% .. .. Sea 12.1% 13.7% 14.8% 13.8% 13.9% 13.3% 12.8% 12.2% 11.0% 10.9% 10.1% .. .. Land 8.1% 9.7% 9.0% 8.1% 8.4% 8.6% 8.8% 7.8% 7.7% 8.2% 8.5% .. .. Air 15.5% 17.0% 17.1% 16.2% 14.9% 14.3% 14.5% 13.3% 13.9% 13.3% 15.5% .. .. Other 4.0% 3.0% 2.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 6.7% 6.5% 7.5% .. .. Other expenditure 17.7% 18.6% 17.8% 18.2% 19.9% 20.9% 19.8% 19.1% 18.7% 19.5% 18.5% .. .. Works, buildings and land 6.5% 8.2% 7.7% 7.4% 9.2% 9.3% 8.5% 7.5% 8.9% 8.0% 8.8% .. .. Miscellaneous stores etc 11.2% 10.4% 10.2% 10.8% 10.7% 11.6% 11.3% 11.6% 9.8% 11.5% 9.6% .. .. .. not available Notes: (a) Figures for 1990/91 and 1991/92 exclude overseas contributions to the cost of the Gulf War. (b) Using the GDP deflator and forecasts given in the Financial Statement & Budget Report 1995-96. (c) Pension payments to retired sevice personnel are outside the new public expenditure control total and are excluded from the defence budget. Sources: Defence Statistics 1995 (HMSO) Table 1.2 Statistical Supplement to the Financial Statement & Budget Report 1995-96 (Cm 2821 February 1995) Research Paper 95/98 2 Defence Manpower An analysis of the defence budget and manpower allocation broken down by Top Level Budgets (TLBs) in the New Management Strategy for 1995-96 is set out in table 2. The majority of the Higher Level Budgets (HLBs) are also given. The sum of HLBs within a given TLB may not be equal to the TLB itself, as responsibility for some expenditure is retained directly by the TLB holder. 2.1 Armed Forces Manpower On 25 July 1990, the Secretary of State for Defence announced to the House the Government's outline proposals for the future restructuring of the armed forces, "reflecting and responding to the dramatic developments in the Soviet Union and eastern and central Europe over the previous 18 months".1 For regular service personnel, the proposed changes as set out in Statement on the Defence Estimates 1991 Volume 1 (Cm 1559-I) are as follows: “Royal Navy and Royal Marines numbers will reduce, in line with the reductions in the size of the fleet, from the present total requirement of around 63,000, including trainees, to around 55,000 by the mid-1990s. The reduction will be achieved so far as possible by natural wastage but may require a small number of redundancies. Related reductions will be made in the civilian personnel supporting the Navy. Army numbers will reduce to about 116,000 by the mid-1990s from the present total strength of about 156,000. The reduction will be achieved so far as possible through natural wastage and careful control of recruitment, but a number of redundancies are likely to be needed to preserve age, rank and skills structures. Related reductions will also be made in the civilian personnel supporting the Army. RAF numbers will reduce from the present 89,000 (including trainees) to around 75,000 (of whom about 4,000 will be under training) by the mid-1990s.” On 3 February 1993 the Secretary of State for Defence announced to the House that the planned strength of the army in the mid-1990s would be increased by 3,000 to 119,000. Tables 3 and 4 provide a simple analysis of the strength of UK regular and reserve forces since 1980. Between 1 April 1990 and 1 August 1995, the number of UK regular forces has fallen by 25% to 229,300. Between 1 April 1990 and 1 April 1995 the number of regular reserves has risen by 4% whilst the number of volunteer reserves and auxiliary forces has fallen by 29%. Library Research Paper 94/101 Front Line First: The Defence Costs Study provides details of the latest defence review and its implications for expenditure and manpower. 1 Statement on the Defence Estimates 1991 Volume I (Cm 1559-I) paragraph 401. 7 New Management Strategy 1995-96 Budget UK regular forces UK-based civilians £ million thousands thousands 1995-96 1 April 1995 1 April 1995 Navy Operational Areas Commander-in-Chief Fleet 1,165.9 30.9 4.5 Army Operational Areas Commander-in-Chief, Land Command 2,828.6 69.2 14.2 GOC (Northern Ireland) 522.4 10.5 2.5 Air Force Operational Areas Strike Command 1,688.6 42.8 4.6 Overseas Garrisons Vice Chief of Defence Staff (Commitments) 361.5 10.3 0.7 Service Personnel 2nd Sea Lord/Commander-in-Chief, Naval Home Command 693.4 14.5 3.7 Adjutant General (Personnel & Training Command) 1,001.2 20.5 8.1 RAF Personnel & Training Command 798.4 12.7 4.2 Logistics, Support and Maintenance Chief of Fleet Support 2,019.5 3.3 18.9 Quartermaster General 1,121.7 2.5 11.7 RAF Logistics Command 1,816.8 9.6 8.2 MoD Headquarters & Centrally Managed Expenditure 2nd Parliamentary Under Secretary of State 658.8 - 11.8 Vice Chief of Defence Staff (Headquarters) 817.8 4.8 3.2 Executive Agencies Meteorological Office 80.4 - 2.2 Procurement Executive Chief of Defence Procurement 1,017.6 1.1 6.2 Equipment 4,621.4 - - Defence Research Agency 506.3 - 11.4 Total 21,720.3 233.3 116.1 Source: Defence Statistics 1995 (HMSO) Tables 1.3, 2.2, 2.3 Table 3 UK Regular Armed Forces Manpower (a) (b) 1 April 1980 1 April 1990 1 April 1994 1 April 1995 1 August 1995 Change from 1990 levels levels levels levels levels Royal Navy/Royal Marines Officers 10,100 10,100 9,100 8,800 8,700 -14% Other ranks 61,800 53,000 46,600 42,100 41,300 -22% Total 71,900 63,200 55,700 50,900 50,000 -21% Army Officers 17,100 17,400 14,900 14,000 13,900 -20% Other ranks 142,000 135,400 108,100 97,800 95,600 -29% Total 159,000 152,800 123,000 111,700 109,500 -28% Royal Air Force Officers 14,800 15,200 13,400 12,800 12,700 -16% Other ranks 74,800 74,400 62,200 57,900 57,200 -23% Total 89,600 89,700 75,700 70,800 69,800 -22% Total Officers 42,000 42,900 37,500 35,600 35,200 -18% Total Other Ranks 278,600 262,900 217,000 197,800 194,100 -26% Total Regular Forces 320,600 305,700 254,500 233,300 229,300 -25% Notes: (a) Excludes locally entered personnel and Gurkhas.
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