June 2015

Monthly Forecast

2 Status Update since our Overview May Forecast 4 Mali 5 Côte d’Ivoire Malaysia will hold the Council’s presidency in Briefings, followed by consultations, are June and is planning a ministerial-level open expected on: 7 Sudan (Darfur) debate on children and armed conflict, with For- • the work of the UN Regional O"ce for Central 8 Sudan and South eign Minister Dato’ Sri Anifah Aman presiding Africa (UNOCA) and the implementation of Sudan and Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Special the UN regional strategy to combat the Lord’s 10 Libya Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Resistance Army by UNOCA’s head Abdou- 11 Syria Leila Zerrougui among the briefers. A resolution laye Bathily (initially expected in May); 13 UNDOF (Golan Heights) is the expected outcome. • the situation in Côte d’Ivoire, by the head of Debates are planned on: UNOCI, Aïchatou Mindaoudou; 14 Iran • the ad hoc international criminal tribunals, • the work UNAMID in Darfur, by Assistant 16 Afghanistan with the presidents and prosecutors of the Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- 17 Children and Armed ICTY and ICTR expected to brief. The ICTY tions Edmond Mulet; President will also brief the Council as Presi- • the situation in Mali by the head of MINUS- 19 Counter-Terrorism dent of the Residual Mechanism for Interna- MA, Mongi Hamdi; 20 Peacebuilding tional Criminal Tribunals, as will the ICTR • Libya by Special Representative and head of Prosecutor as the Residual Mechanism’s Pros- UNSMIL Bernardino León and by Ambassa- 21 Peacekeeping ecutor; and dor Ramlan Ibrahim (Malaysia) on the work of 22 International Criminal • Afghanistan, with a briefing by the head of the the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee; Tribunals UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, Nicho- • the humanitarian situation in Syria by OCHA’s 24 Notable Dates las Haysom. deputy head, Kyung-wha Kang; and Briefings are expected on: • Israel/Palestine, by Under-Secretary-General • the counter-terrorism committees, by Ambas- for Political A!airs Je!rey Feltman. sador Raimonda Murmokaité (Lithuania), Briefings in consultations are likely on: chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Com- • chemical weapons in Syria, by High Represen- mittee, Ambassador Gerard van Bohemen tative for Disarmament Kim Won-soo; (New Zealand), chair of the 1267/1989 Al- • Sudan and South Sudan relations, by Special Qaida Sanctions Committee, and Ambassa- Envoy Haile Menkerios; and dor Román Oyarzun (Spain), chair of the 1540 • the work of UNDOF in the Golan Heights, Committee; most likely by Mulet. • the annual report of the PBC by Antonio de Formal sessions will be needed to renew the Aguiar Patriota (Brazil) and Olof Skoog (Swe- mandates of: den), the PBC’s former and current chairs; • the Panel of Experts assisting the 1737 Iran • Darfur by ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda; Sanctions Committee; • UN peacekeeping by DPKO head Hervé • UNOCI; Ladsous and force commanders Lieutenant • UNAMID; General Yohannes Gebremeskel Tesfamariam • UNDOF; and (Ethiopia) of UNMISS in South Sudan, Major • MINUSMA. General Michael Lollesgaard (Denmark) Throughout the month members will be fol- of MINUSMA in Mali and Major General lowing closely developments in Burundi, the

1 June 2015 Michael Finn (Ireland), the chief of sta! of DRC, Ukraine, Ye m e n , the Boko Haram-a!ected This report is available online at the UN Truce Supervision Organization; and areas of Africa, as well as the migrant crises, and securitycouncilreport.org. • the work of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Commit- additional meetings may be scheduled. • For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please tee, by its chair, Ambassador Oyarzun (Spain). subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our May Forecast

Ye m e n commitments for a swift presidential and presented the most recent UNMISS report On 1 May, at the request of Russia, Coun- legislative electoral process. (S/2015/296) and Ambassador Carlos Olguín cil members were briefed in consultations by Cigarroa (Chile), representative of the chair Under-Secretary-General for Political A!airs Burundi of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Com- Je!rey Feltman, and Russia presented a draft On 8 May, Special Envoy for the Great Lakes mittee, briefed the Council (S/PV.7444). On press statement on the humanitarian situ- Said Djinnit briefed Council members in 17 May, Council members issued a press ation in Yemen. Council members issued a consultations via video teleconference on his statement condemning renewed large-scale UK-drafted press statement on 12 May that mediation e!orts between the government violence in Unity state caused by a recent incorporated elements from the Russian draft and the opposition in Burundi. In elements o!ensive by the government of South Sudan and welcomed the five-day humanitarian to the press, Council members expressed (SC/11897). On 28 May, the Council adopt- pause in the conflict (SC/11888). On 20 May, concern over the influx of refugees into ed resolution 2223 renewing the mandate of Council members were briefed in consulta- neighbouring states and called on all sides UNMISS for six months. tions by Special Envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh to refrain from violence. On 14 May, Djin- Ahmed, via video teleconference, and Opera- nit briefed Council members in consultations Small Arms tions Director of OCHA John Ging. After- again after an attempted coup against Burun- On 13 May, the Council held an open debate wards, Council members issued elements to dian President Pierre Nkurunziza. Council on small arms and light weapons (S/PV.7442). the press welcoming the Secretary-General’s members agreed on press elements that con- Lithuania had circulated a concept note on 1 announcement of consultations among all demned attempts to sieze power unlawfully May highlighting the human cost of small arms Yemeni stakeholders in Geneva on 28 May and called for the swift return of the rule of as a key focus for the debate (S/2015/306). and calling on all Yemeni parties to attend law and the holding of credible elections in The Secretary-General briefed on his 27 April these talks and engage without preconditions. the spirit of the Arusha Agreements. The report on small arms (S/2015/289). He was At press time, the talks had been postponed. next day, Council members issued a press followed by High Commissioner for Human statement calling for the establishment of a Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein and the presi- Liberia genuine dialogue between all Burundians to dent of the Côte d’Ivoire chapter of the West On 5 May, the Special Representative and create the necessary conditions for credible Africa Action Network on Small Arms, Kar- head of the UN Mission in Liberia, Karin elections (SC/11896). On 24 May, Council amoko Diakité, who had been invited to speak Landgren, briefed the Council, present- members issued another press statement con- about the human cost of illicit small arms. On ing the latest UNMIL report (S/2015/275). demning the killing of opposition leader Zedi 22 May, the Council adopted resolution 2220 Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden), Chair of Feruzi on 23 May in Bujumbura (SC/11905). on small arms in a split vote of nine in favour the Peacebuilding Commission and its coun- On 27 May, Djinnit briefed Council mem- and six abstentions (S/PV.7447). Resolution try-specific configuration on Liberia, and bers again in consultations via video telecon- 2220 contained new provisions aiming to Liberia’s Minister of Justice Benedict San- ference on his latest mediation e!orts. strengthen UN coordination and action on noh also addressed the Council (S/PV.7438). small arms, promote e!ective implementation Bosnia and Herzegovina of UN arms embargoes and support the Arms DRC On 12 May, the Council held its semi- Trade Treaty while at the same time emphasis- On 7 May, Under-Secretary-General for Peace- annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina ing the negative impact of the proliferation of keeping Operations Hervé Ladsous briefed (S/PV.7440). High Representative Valentin small arms on the protection of civilians. Five Council members under “any other business” Inzko briefed on his o"ce’s latest report of the six Council members that abstained, on his latest visit to the DRC. The previous day, (S/2015/300). Inzko stressed the country had Angola (on behalf of the three African mem- Council members had issued a press statement an opportunity to break the negative political bers of the Council), Chad, China, Russia condemning a 5 May attack against peacekeep- and economic trends with the EU’s recent and Venezuela, had explanations of vote high- ers in North Kivu (SC/11883). initiative to activate Bosnia and Herzegovi- lighting the absence of an explicit reference na’s Stabilization and Association Agreement, to “non-state actors” in the resolution’s provi- CAR a precursor to applying for EU membership. sions regarding the need to prevent the trans- On 7 May, Under-Secretary-General for fer of small arms to armed groups. Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous South Sudan briefed Council members under “any other On 12 May, at the request of the US, Coun- Iraq business” on his latest visit to the CAR. On cil members held consultations regarding On 14 May, newly appointed Special Rep- 15 May, Council members issued a press options for accountability and transitional resentative Ján Kubiš briefed the Council, statement welcoming the holding of the justice in South Sudan. Under-Secretary- presenting the most recent UNAMI report Bangui forum on national reconciliation General for Legal A!airs and UN Legal (S/2015/305) and the report on Iraq/Kuwait from 4 to 11 May 2015 (SC/11895). Coun- Counsel Miguel de Serpa Soares briefed missing persons and property (S/2015/298). cil members commended the adoption of the along with Assistant Secretary-General for Kubiš said that for military gains against Republican Pact for Peace, National Rec- Human Rights Ivan Šiminović. On 14 May, ISIS to hold, the government would have to onciliation and Reconstruction, including Special Representative Ellen Margrethe Løj restore civilian authority in areas liberated

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Status Update since our May Forecast (con’t) from ISIS—a reference to the Sunni western focusing on key women, peace and security Protection of Civilians provinces which have a strained relationship recommendations to the Security Council On 27 May, the Council held a open debate with the Shi’a-led government in Baghdad. from Radhika Coomaraswamy, lead author on the protection of journalists and adopted (Three days later Ramadi fell to ISIS as gov- of the Global Study on the implementation resolution 2222 (S/PV.7450). According to ernment forces fled. There have been subse- of resolution 1325; Ameerah Haq, Vice- a concept note circulated by Lithuania on 1 quent reports of Iraqi authorities blocking Chair of the High-Level Independent Panel May (S/2015/307) the aim of the debate was to civilians fleeing Ramadi from entering Bagh- on Peace Operations; and Ambassador Gert review implementation of resolution 1738, the dad.) OCHA head Valerie Amos also briefed Rosenthal, head of the Review of the Peace- only previous Council resolution on the protec- on the humanitarian situation, reporting that building Architecture. In other developments, tion of journalists, and discuss lessons learned. 8.2 million people required assistance, an Special Representative on Sexual Violence The meeting was chaired by Lithuania’s for- increase of three million in five months. in Conflict Zainab Hawa Bangura briefed eign minister Linas Linkevičius and featured members of the 2206 South Sudan Sanc- briefings by Deputy Secretary-General Jan Cyprus tions Committee on 8 May (SC/11891). This Eliasson, Secretary-General of Reporters With- On 15 May, Council members issued a press briefing was a follow-up to resolution 2206 out Borders Christophe Deloire, and Mari- statement welcoming the resumption of the which requested the Special Representative ane Pearl, the widow of Daniel Pearl, the Wall settlement talks (SC/11894). to share information with the Committee. Street Journal reporter who was kidnapped and beheaded in Pakistan in early 2002. Resolution Israel/Palestine Counter-Terrorism 2222 focused on the need to combat impunity On 19 May, in his first monthly briefing to On 22 May Council members condemned for attacks against journalists, enhance report- the Council as Special Coordinator for the the terrorist attack claimed by ISIS at a ing on violence against journalists and improve Middle East Peace Process, Nickolay Mlad- mosque in Qatif, Saudi Arabia (SC/11903). international coordination to strengthen the enov warned that given the vicious tide of ter- On 29 May, the Council adopted a presi- protection of journalists. ror and extremism in the region, it was even dential statement on identifying prior- more critical for Israelis and Palestinians to ity actions to stem the flow foreign terrorist DPRK (North Korea) negotiate a two-state solution and end actions fighters (S/PRST/2015/11) at a meeting pre- On 28 May, Ambassador Román Oyarzun that imperil an agreement (S/PV.7446). sided by Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Linas (Spain) briefed Council members on the Linkevičius (S/PV.7453). The 1267/1989 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee. The Somalia Al-Qaida Monitoring Team recently sub- Committee had only held one meeting, on On 19 May, Special Representative and head mitted a report to the Council on this issue 20 April, since his last briefing on 26 Feb- of UNSOM Nicholas Kay and Special Rep- (S/2015/358) and Lithuania circulated a ruary. On 6 May, in response to a request resentative of the AU for Somalia and head concept note to help members prepare for from Mexico the Committee sent a letter of AMISOM Maman Sidikou briefed the the meeting (S/2015/324). Expected to brief confirming that the vessel Mu Du Bong is Council via video teleconference from Addis on UN counter-terrorism e!orts were Dep- under sanctions. Mu Du Bong is being held Ababa (S/PV.7445). Kay presented the most uty Secretary-General Jan Eliasson and the in the Mexican port of Tuxpan after it ran recent UNSOM report (S/2015/331). On chairs of the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions aground in the Gulf of Mexico last July. 26 May, the Council unanimously adopted Committee, Ambassador Gerard van Bohe- According to the 1718 Panel of Experts, the resolution 2221, renewing the mandate of men (New Zealand), and the 1373 Counter- ship is owned by Ocean Maritime Manage- UNSOM until 7 August. The brief man- Terrorism Committee, Ambassador Raimon- ment Company which was designated by the date renewal—for a period of just over ten da Murmokaitė (Lithuania). Murmokaité Committee on 28 July 2014. On 21 May, the weeks—will enable Council members to con- covered the work of the CTC on this issue, Council received a letter from the DPRK sider an upcoming joint AU-UN report on including reports on the implementation (S/2015/365) on its 9 May underwater bal- AMISOM, particularly the provisions related of 2178 (S/2015/338), challenges in pros- listic missile launches from a submarine and to UNSOM’s mandate. ecutions related to foreign terrorist fighters on statements made by US Secretary of State (S/2015/123) and on the use of advanced John Kerry on 18 May. Meeting Between the Security passenger information by member states Council and EU Political and Security (S/2015/377). Secretary-General of INTER- Myanmar Committee POL Jürgen Stock also briefed. On 28 May, under “any other business”, On 20 May, Council members held an infor- High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid mal meeting with members of the EU PSC Kosovo Ra’ad Al Hussein briefed Council members to discuss EU-UN peacekeeping cooperation, On 26 May, the Council held a quarterly via video teleconference on the human rights Libya and Ukraine. debate on Kosovo with a briefing by Spe- situation in Myanmar, in particular on the cial Representative Farid Zarif (S/PV.7448) Rohingya and the related migration crisis in Women, Peace and Security who presented the latest Secretary-General’s Southeast Asia. On 21 May, Council members held a closed report (S/2015/303). The prime ministers of Arria-formula meeting, organised by Spain, Serbia and Kosovo participated in the debate.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Mali

Expected Council Action and a 10 April press statement welcomed the the Secretary-General after three people were In June, the Council is expected to renew agreement, which Council members consid- killed by MINUSMA forces during a dem- the mandate of the UN Multidimension- ered “balanced and comprehensive”. Briefing onstration against the mission in Gao on 27 al Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali Council members under “any other business” January. Ladsous briefed Council members (MINUSMA). The Council also expects to on 7 May, peacekeeping head Hervé Ladsous on 2 April under “any other business” on the receive a briefing from the Special Represen- presented the conditions for the Secretariat to results of the inquiry, which concluded that tative and head of MINUSMA, Mongi Ham- support a partial signature of the peace agree- Rwandan members of a formed police unit di, followed by consultations. MINUSMA’s ment: the agreement had to remain open to had used unauthorised and excessive force mandate expires on 30 June. subsequent signatures of remaining parties, on civilians, resulting in the death by gun- Separately, the Council will be briefed in dialogue with them must continue, the cease- fire of three protesters and the wounding of June on peacekeeping, including by MINUS- fire must be respected and implementation of four others. As a response to the results of this MA’s force commander. the main provisions by the signatories must inquiry, Rwanda decided to withdraw most of begin as soon as possible. On 28 May, Lad- its police contribution to MINUSMA. Key Recent Developments sous briefed again under “any other business” On 4 May, OCHA highlighted how inse- In April and May there were multiple clashes to update Council members on his recent vis- curity has hampered humanitarian access between the parties to the conflict, includ- it to Mali to attend the 15 May signing of the and the delivery of humanitarian assistance. ing the Malian Defence and Security Forc- partial peace agreement. OCHA has recorded significant access con- es (MDSF), and di!erent armed groups. MINUSMA, its contractors and other straints in northern Mali linked to violence These included the occupation on 27 April international actors (including NGOs), con- against humanitarian personnel, assets or of Ménaka by the Groupe Autodéfense tinue to be targeted by Al-Qaida-a"liated facilities as well as to the conduct of hostili- Touareg Imghad et Alliés and others from terrorist groups through improvised explo- ties or military operations. the coalition of armed groups closely aligned sive devices, ambushes and other attacks. with the government known as the Platform, (Four of these groups—the Mouvement pour Human Rights-Related Developments and attacks on Goundam and Leré in the fol- l’Unification et le Jihad en Afrique de l’Ouest, The Human Rights Council adopted a resolution on technical assistance and capacity-building for lowing days by the Coordination—another Ansar Eddine, Al-Mourabitoun and Al-Qai- coalition of armed groups seeking autonomy da in the Islamic Maghreb—are listed under HRC/28/L.9). The resolution strongly condemns for the north—which left several MDSF sol- the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida sanctions regime.) the abuses and violations of human rights and diers and at least one child dead. On 1 May, The assaults included a 15 April attack on a international humanitarian law that have been Council members issued a press statement MINUSMA camp in Ansongo by a vehicle- committed against civilians, including women and children, and the recruitment of the latter; extends condemning the attacks and stressing that borne improvised explosive device in which the mandate of the independent expert on Mali they violated the ceasefire. Despite state- two civilians were killed and nine peacekeepers for one year; and asks the High Commissioner ments by the parties that they are committed were wounded. The group Al-Mourabitoun, for Human Rights to provide technical assis- to respecting the ceasefire, clashes have con- which claimed responsibility for the attack and tance to the government of Mali, in particular to tinued, including in Ménaka, which, despite recently pledged allegiance to the Islamic State the Commission for Dialogue, Truth, Justice and Reconciliation. a proposal by MINUSMA to take control of of Iraq and al-Sham, announced on 18 May - the town, at press time remained under con- that it was holding a Romanian hostage. On 26 woman for the High Commissioner for Human trol of the Platform. May, a Bangladeshi peacekeeper was killed in Rights deplored the continued targeting of UN Against this backdrop, the government and what seemed to be the second attack in days personnel and humanitarian workers in the coun- the Platform signed a partial peace agreement against MINUSMA in Bamako, Mali. try and called on government forces to ensure in Bamako on 15 May. The Coordination As of 30 April, 82 percent of MINUSMA’s that counter-terrorism operations are conducted in line with international human rights standards. had initialled the agreement a day earlier but authorised uniformed personnel had been refused to participate in the signing, reiterating deployed. According to the 27 March Sec- up closely with the Malian authorities on allega- its position that the document did not take into retary-General’s report, outstanding deploy- tions of human rights violations and abuses that account the legitimate aspirations of the people ments “continued to hamper the force’s abil- may have been committed during such operations. of Azawad and highlighting concerns it wanted ity to fulfil its mandate and protect convoy addressed prior to signing the agreement. movements”. Given the significant changes Key Issues Beginning on 1 March, the Algerian-led to the political and security environment in Preventing further escalation of violence by mediation team worked for a month and a Mali since the establishment of MINUSMA, the warring parties is an imminent issue of half to persuade the Coordination to initial the mission concept and the concepts of concern for the Council. and then sign the agreement. On 4 March operations of related components have been An overarching issue is the deadlock in the the Council issued press elements encourag- reviewed ahead of its mandate renewal. political process over the signing of the peace ing the Coordination to initial the agreement, A fact-finding inquiry was launched by agreement and how to maintain the impartiality

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2164 (25 June 2014) renewed MINUSMA. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/219 (27 March 2015) was the latest Mali report. Security Council Press Statements SC/11879 (1 May 2015) expressed deep concern at the outbreak of violence in Mali since 27 April. SC/11855 (10 April 2015) welcomed the Agreement on Peace and Reconciliation initialled by representatives of the Malian government and one of the coalitions of armed groups. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7425

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Mali (con’t) of MINUSMA in the context of a peace agree- authority to the north—to the signing of support to the agreement. A 15 May state- ment that is not signed by all parties. the agreement by all. ment by the Secretary-General characterised The marked increase in terrorist attacks the agreement as “a strong basis on which to and the deliberate targeting of MINUSMA, Council and Wider Dynamics build a just and lasting peace in Mali”. and addressing the safety concerns of troop- Discussions on MINUSMA’s mandate may MINUSMA’s relations with the host gov- and police-contributing countries are further be divisive, given the di!erences in approach ernment have never been easy. Most recent- key issues for the Council. that Council members might favour regard- ly, during the signing ceremony in Bamako, Preventing terrorist groups from taking ing MINUSMA’s actions in the absence of a Ladsous delivered a statement on behalf of advantage of the current stalemate in the peace agreement signed by all. In this context, the Secretary-General warning against the political process is a related issue. the need for a more robust mandate for the utilisation of the partial signature as a pre- mission, or the establishment of a regional text for the resumption of military operations Options force as requested by Mali, might feature in against non-signatory groups and President If the agreement is signed by all parties before the discussions. Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta reacted by accusing the current MINUSMA mandate ends, the Council members are concerned about MINUSMA of partiality. Council could adopt a resolution modifying the deadlock over the signing of the agree- Council members are worried about the the mandate to ensure the implementation ment and the impact that the stalemate in the continuous attacks targeting MINUSMA in of the agreement in matters such as security political process is having on the security situ- northern Mali. Given the exceptionally high arrangements, decentralisation of govern- ation in the north. After the repeated violations numbers of fatalities and casualties in MINUS- ment and transitional justice. of the ceasefire, Council members reiterated MA, and despite improvements in the living If the agreement is not signed by all parties, in a 1 May press statement the reference to conditions for troops deployed in the north, the the Council could adopt a resolution: imposing further measures and expressed its tension between the troop-contributors willing • calling on all parties to act with restraint intention “to evaluate next steps in light of to deploy their forces in the most dangerous and refrain from any further violence; these violations and events on the ground”. It territory (whose troops are not necessarily the • reiterating its support for the work of seems that the discussion regarding sanctions best equipped) and other, more risk-averse Hamdi and of MINUSMA; is for now focused on violations of the ceasefire contributors reflects what is seen as an increas- • establishing a sanctions regime to impose and not broader designation criteria, such as ing gap between contributors from the devel- measures on those violating the ceasefire, “undermining the political transition”. oping and the developed world. These issues whether directly or through proxies; and Even though the Secretariat had in the are expected to be addressed more broadly • prioritising the good o"ces mandate of past cautioned against rushing to an agree- in the annual Council briefing by force com- MINUSMA to bring about an inclusive ment at any cost without addressing the manders, which is also scheduled for June. agreement and the monitoring of the grievances of the parties or providing for a France is the penholder on Mali. ceasefire, while conditioning other tasks— sustainable solution, both the Council and such as the support to the return of state the Secretary-General have given public

Côte d’Ivoire

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments Mamadou Koulibaly. Other members of the In June, the Council is scheduled to receive On 15 May, 13 politicians formed an oppo- CNC include Aboudramane Sangare, who a briefing from the Special Representative of sition coalition, Coalition national pour le heads a faction of hardliners in the Front the Secretary-General and head of the UN changement (CNC), to challenge incumbent populaire ivoirien, the party of former presi- Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), Aïcha- President Alassane Ouattara and his ruling dent Laurent Gbagbo. The CNC’s charter tou Mindaoudou, regarding the Secretary- party, Rassemblement des républicains, in the calls for Gbagbo, who is in custody at The General’s semi-annual report on UNOCI. presidential election this October. According Hague awaiting trial by the ICC, and other The Council is likely to adopt a resolu- to media reports, the CNC is largely com- “political prisoners” to be released. tion renewing the mandate of UNOCI, which posed of dissidents who have left the Parti The ICC announced on 7 May that the expires on 30 June. The authorisation of démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (which has joint trial of Gbagbo and the former minister French forces supporting UNOCI, also due backed Ouattara’s candidacy), such as for- of youth, Charles Blé Goudé, would start on to expire on 30 June, may also be renewed by mer prime minister Charles Konan Banny 10 November. (Before the ICC combined it the Council. and the ex-president of the national assembly with Goudé’s on 11 March, Gbagbo’s trial

UN DOCUMENTS ON CÔTE D’IVOIRE Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2219 (28 April 2015) renewed sanctions measures until 30 April 2016. S/RES/2162 (25 June 2014) renewed the mandate of UNOCI until 30 June 2015. S/RES/1603 (3 June 2005) requested appointment of a High Representative for elections in Côte d’Ivoire. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7436 (28 April 2015) concerned the adoption of resolution 2219. S/PV.7431Sanctions Committee Document S/2015/252Secretary-General’s Reports S/2015/320 (7 May 2015) and S/2014/892 (12 December 2014) were UNOCI reports.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Côte d’Ivoire (con’t)

had been scheduled to start on 7 July.) Gbag- Human Rights-Related Developments the current pre-election period. bo and Goudé have each been charged with In particular, numerous risk factors identi- four crimes against humanity (murder, rape, - fied in reports by the Group of Experts and sion by the parliament of Côte d’Ivoire to elimi- other inhumane acts or attempted murder nate capital punishment from its penal code. It the Secretary-General remain of concern and persecution) during a period of post- had been abolished by the country’s constitution, during the pre-election period, including: election violence in Côte d’Ivoire between which was adopted in 2000, but had remained in • the continued presence of “radical” sup- 16 December 2010 and 12 April 2011. the penal code. porters of former president Gbagbo; The Secretary-General’s 7 May report on The independent expert on capacity-building • widely held perceptions of victor’s justice and technical cooperation with Côte d’Ivoire in the UNOCI makes three main recommendations by opposition party members; regarding the peacekeeping operation: the Human Rights Council with an oral update • large amounts of unregulated arms and • extend UNOCI’s mandate for a period of during its 28th session on 24 March. Referring ammunition available in the country; one year; to the upcoming presidential elections in Octo- • weak police capacity for crowd control and • maintain UNOCI’s current authorisation a lack of cohesion in the military; government to improve security were essential of 5,437 military personnel and 1,500 and that the most delicate task in connection with • thousands of former combatants yet to be police personnel and postpone any fur- this was the DDR of former combatants. Some included in the DDR process; and ther drawdowns of deployed personnel 30,000 combatants await demobilisation and • links between non-state armed groups in until after the electoral period; and reintegration. Dialogue with the opposition and Liberia and Côte d’Ivoire. • expand UNOCI’s electoral assistance listening to social movements were indispens- able to further improve the security situation, he mandate as outlined in the Secretary- Options added. A written report will be submitted at the General’s report of 12 December 2014. 29th session. With respect to UNOCI’s mandate, there More specifically, the electoral assistance On 31 March, the Human Rights Committee— seem to be three main options for the Coun- would include deploying dedicated expertise a body of independent experts that monitors cil (in declining order of probability): to support the Special Representative’s good implementation of the International Covenant • following the Secretary-General’s recom- on Civil and Political Rights by its state parties— o"ces mandate, assisting national authori- mendations by renewing the mandate of adopted its concluding observations on the initial ties in developing an operational plan for the periodic report of Côte d’Ivoire (CCPR/C/CIV/ UNOCI for one year, maintaining current October 2015 presidential election and pro- CO/1). On 19 March, Committee members had authorisation levels for troops and police viding limited logistical support. raised concerns over judicial independence, long at least until after the electoral period and pre-trial detention, suspicions of torture carried adding new election-related components; out by the secret service, gender equality, the Sanctions-Related Developments • renewing the mandate of UNOCI for one public participation of women in administration, Ambassador Cristián Barros (Chile), chair of the marital and domestic violence, female genital year, maintaining current authorisation 1572 Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee, briefed levels for troops and police at least until Truth and Reconciliation Commission in combat- of the Group of Experts and a Committee meet- after the electoral period, but not adding ing impunity was also raised, as were investiga- ing held on 10 April. He summarised several of the any new election-related components; or tions into cases of enforced disappearances. concerns outlined in the Group’s report, includ- • renewing the mandate of UNOCI for Committee members welcomed reforms to the ing the continued presence of “elements linked one year, but immediately continuing the to the radical pro-Gbagbo group”; large amounts drawdown process and not adding any of unregulated arms and ammunition in the coun- try; inadequate police capacity, particularly with new election-related components. respect to the need to maintain public order dur- The Council could also consider request- ing the upcoming presidential election; a lack of Key Issues ing an interim 90-day oral briefing between cohesion in the military; an incomplete disarma- The main issue for the Council with respect now and October with a specific focus on ment, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) pro- to the situation in Côte d’Ivoire remains election-related developments. cess; and cross-border linkages among non-state armed groups in Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia. the potential for election-related violence in On 28 April, the Council unanimously adopted October similar to the clashes in 2010 and Council and Wider Dynamics resolution 2219, renewing the targeted sanctions 2011, which resulted in more than 1,000 The renewal of the 1572 Côte d’Ivoire sanc- of the 1572 Côte d’Ivoire sanctions regime until 30 civilian deaths. Côte d’Ivoire’s long history tions regime in April is likely indicative of how April 2016. These include a partial arms embar- of seven postponements of its presidential the Council will approach the upcoming man- go, travel ban and asset freeze. The mandate of the Group of Experts supporting the 1572 Côte election from October 2005 to the eventual date renewal of UNOCI in June. In his 22 April d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee was also extended, polls on 31 October and 28 November 2010 briefing to the Council, the Committee chair until 30 May 2016. Following the vote, Ambassa- (initially with authorisation by the AU and identified numerous factors potentially influ- dor Bafetigue Ouattara (Côte d’Ivoire) noted the endorsement by the Council, then via mecha- encing the risk of future conflict in Côte d’Ivoire, “cautious posture” of Council members regarding nisms of the Ouagadougou peace agreement, particularly within the context of the upcoming the October 2015 election, while stating his gov- and finally unilaterally by then-President presidential election. Cognisant of these fac- ernment’s support for completely removing the Gbagbo) coupled with the state’s institutional tors, the Council renewed sanctions measures sanctions regime and continuing the drawdown weakness for e!ectively managing the 2010 without modification for one year. Meanwhile, of UNOCI toward a full withdrawal by early 2017. election, are worth keeping in mind during Ambassador Ouattara said the government of

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Côte d’Ivoire (con’t)

Côte d’Ivoire supports terminating the sanc- Council members for the recommendations of in Liberia for senatorial elections in December tions regime and continuing the drawdown of the Secretary-General, particularly regarding 2014, also seems probable. UNOCI but tacitly acknowledged that neither maintaining UNOCI’s deployment levels dur- France is the penholder on Côte d’Ivoire was probable until after the elections in Octo- ing the pre-election period. Adding an electoral and Chile is the chair of the 1572 Côte ber. There is likely to be strong support among component, as was done with the UN Mission d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee.

Sudan (Darfur)

Expected Council Action battle, with Sudan’s claim of a military victory On 12 December 2014, Bensouda provid- In June, the Council expects to renew the by the RSF likely more credible than JEM’s ed the semi-annual briefing to the Council on mandate of the AU-UN Hybrid Operation similar assertion of battlefield success. the ICC’s work in Sudan. “In the almost ten in Darfur (UNAMID) ahead of its 30 June Inter-communal clashes have also contin- years that my o"ce has been reporting to the expiry. Prior to this, it will be briefed on the ued to be a problem in Darfur. On 10 May, Council, no strategic recommendation has Secretary-General’s report on UNAMID. fighting erupted between the Southern Reize- ever been provided to my o"ce, and neither Also in June, ICC Prosecutor Fatou Ben- gat and Ma’aliya tribes in East Darfur. The have there been any discussions resulting in souda is expected to provide a semi-annual two groups have had intermittent disputes concrete solutions to the problems we face in briefing on the Court’s work regarding Darfur. over land and cattle for several years. The the Darfur situation”, she said. Consequent- catalyst for the current conflict was appar- ly, she declared, the ICC was suspending its Key Recent Developments ently cattle raids by both sides during April. investigations in Darfur and would apply its Violent incidents continued in several parts of The fighting occurred near the town of Abu limited resources elsewhere. Darfur. On 23 and 24 April, UNAMID peace- Karinka, where there was significant damage On 9 March, the ICC’s Pre-Trial Cham- keepers exchanged fire with gunmen near Kass, to infrastructure and the local population ber II decided in favour of a request for a South Darfur. According to UNAMID, peace- urgently required water and food. UNAMID finding of non-compliance submitted by the keepers protecting a water point returned fire issued a statement on 11 May welcoming the Prosecutor. The decision, transmitted to the on 23 April after they were attacked by about government’s deployment of troops to create Council on 20 March, found that Sudan has 40 gunmen on horses and camels, killing four a bu!er zone and supporting ongoing e!orts failed to cooperate with the Court with respect of the attackers. On 24 April, UNAMID peace- to mediate the conflict. to its requests for the arrest and surrender of keepers were attacked while on patrol near The Council last addressed UNAMID on Sudan’s President Omar Hassan Ahmad Al Kass and returned fire. The Chairperson of 17 March, when Under-Secretary-General Bashir and referred the matter back to the the Commission of the AU, Nkosazana Dlam- for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous Council “for the Council to take appropriate ini-Zuma, and UN Secretary-General Ban briefed on two reports of the Secretary-Gen- measures”. It should be noted that the Court Ki-moon issued statements condemning the eral: a regular quarterly report on UNAMID has previously issued a non-cooperation deci- attacks on UNAMID peacekeepers. In a con- released 26 February and a 6 March special sion with respect to Sudan, on 25 May 2010, flicting version of these events, Sudan claims report with analysis of implementation of an which has not had any impact on the Sudanese the peacekeepers fired on civilians first in the earlier strategic review of UNAMID. In addi- government’s actions. The South African gov- two incidents, killing five Zaghawa tribesmen tion to assessing implementation of UNA- ernment has invited Bashir to attend the AU on 23 April and then two more on 24 April. MID’s three strategic priorities and providing summit in Johannesburg, taking place in early On 25 and 26 April, there were major clash- an update on the situation in Darfur, Ladsous June. If Bashir attends, as a state party to the es in South Darfur state between the Justice said that the Secretary-General’s proposal for Rome Statute, South Africa would be obliged and Equality Movement (JEM) rebel group transitioning some functions from UNAMID to arrest him. Bashir has previously travelled and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) govern- to the UN country team would be covered in to six ICC state parties without being arrested: ment militia. (The RSF, which is a successor to the next Secretary-General’s report on UNA- Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibou- the Janjaweed militias, has been widely accused MID due 27 May. He also stated that a plan ti, Kenya, Malawi and Nigeria. of human rights violations during its counter- for UNAMID’s exit strategy being developed insurgency operations in Darfur.) Sudan claims by a tripartite working group comprising the Sanctions-Related Developments that the government of South Sudan provides UN, AU and government of Sudan, would At press time, Ambassador Rafael Ramirez (Ven- ezuela) was scheduled to brief Council members support to JEM and allows the rebel group to be presented to the AU Peace and Security in quarterly consultations on 28 May regarding use the country as a rear base. There were sig- Council and the UN Security Council at the the work of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee. nificantly di!ering reports of the border area end of May.

Security Council Resolution S/RES/2173 (27 August 2014) renewed the mandate of UNAMID. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7405 S/PV.7337Security Council Letter S/2015/202 (20 Secretary-General’s Reports S/2015/163 (6 March 2015) analysed implementation of UNAMID’s strategic review. S/2015/141 (26 February 2015) was a UNAMID report. S/2014/138 (25 February 2014) was a strategic review of UNAMID.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Sudan (Darfur) (con’t)

of the Court and undermines the credibility analysing implementation of UNAMID’s 6 February. of the Council’s referral resolutions. strategic review. That failure is indicative of deeply entrenched divisions among Council Human Rights-Related Developments Options members regarding Sudan. The initial draft On 5 May, the Committee on the Elimination of In practical terms, the main options for the statement painted a dire picture of the secu- Racial Discrimination concluded its consideration Council’s approach to UNAMID will likely rity situation in Darfur and its impact on of periodic reports of Sudan on its implementation of the provisions of the Convention on the Elimi- be derived from the forthcoming reports of civilians, noting that given the challenges on nation of All Forms of Racial Discrimination. Com- the Secretary-General and the joint working the ground, UNAMID’s exit strategy should group on exit strategy. Recommendations in take into consideration the benchmarks out- these reports could plausibly fall within this lined in past Secretary-General’s reports. The and land, which had exacerbated ethnic tensions range: necessary consensus could not be achieved and led to instability in the country, particularly in • renewing UNAMID’s mandate for one largely because Russia wanted a text that did noted that the closure of the Salima Centre for year, retaining the current mandate, and not link the exit strategy to benchmarks and Women’s Research in June 2014 led to concerns of maintaining the hybrid peacekeeping that did not highlight the deteriorating secu- a civil society crackdown. The failure to replace the operation’s existing force structure; and rity situation. Instead, Russia would have pre- 2005 Provisional Constitution with a permanent • renewing UNAMID’s mandate for a ferred a text that did not place caveats on the one was another source of concern. Experts com- mended the establishment of the National Human shorter period of time, modifying the exit strategy and that welcomed implemen- Rights Commission but questioned the indepen- mandate to shift tasks to the government tation of the Doha Document for Peace in dence of its members, who were appointed by and UN country team, narrowing the Darfur. In the absence of a significant shift the country’s president. They also raised concern geographic scope of deployment to higher by either the P3 or Russia and China, nego- over the performance of the National Security intensity conflict areas and further draw- tiations on UNAMID’s upcoming mandate Agency, which enjoyed immunity from prosecution for human rights violations. Other issues raised ing down troops, thus enabling withdrawal renewal are likely to be similarly contentious. related to the situation of the Dinka people and the within the medium term. There are also strong di!erences of per- people in the Nuba Mountains, return of internally There are several options that the Council spective among Council members regarding displaced persons, laws applicable to non-Muslim could consider with respect to the ICC: the work of the ICC in Darfur, which makes populations and the complaint mechanisms avail- • formally acknowledging the ICC’s find- it di"cult for the Council to take constructive able to the victims of racial discrimination. ing of non-compliance by Sudan (as well action on this issue. The P3 and several oth- as responding to the eight other outstand- ers have been very supportive of the Court’s Key Issues ing communications from the ICC to the e!orts, while expressing strong concerns Regarding UNAMID, the main focus for the Council); about impunity in Darfur. On the other hand, Council will be deciding how to proceed with • threatening appropriate measures against several African states, including those on the the upcoming resolution renewing the peace- Sudan for a lack of cooperation with the Council, have viewed the ICC as a political keeping operation’s mandate, including: ICC and against relevant state parties for a instrument exclusively focused on Africa • any substantive modifications to the failure to adhere to their obligations under and questioned whether its pursuit of justice mandate; the Rome Statute; and complements the pursuit of peace. Chad is a • mechanisms for transitioning to the UN • holding an informal interactive dialogue or state party to the ICC and has hosted Bashir country team; and an Arria-formula meeting with the O"ce in the past without executing the ICC’s war- • the scale and timing of drawdown, plus of the Prosecutor to constructively discuss rant for his arrest. China and Russia have exit strategy. next steps. generally supported the AU position on the Another critical issue concerns the Coun- ICC. Ten Council members have ratified the cil’s unwillingness to act on requests by the Council and Wider Dynamics Rome Statute (Chad, Chile, France, Jordan, ICC to take measures against state parties As penholder, the UK was unable to facili- Lithuania, New Zealand, Nigeria, Spain, the to the Rome Statute that do not fulfil their tate consensus in March on a draft presiden- UK and Venezuela) and five have not (Angola, responsibilities, which erodes the e!ectiveness tial statement welcoming the special report China, Malaysia, Russia and the US).

Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action of resolution 2046 on Sudan-South Sudan Menkerios, is expected to brief. At press time, In June, Council members will hold their relations. The Special Envoy of the Secretary- no outcome was anticipated. quarterly meeting on the implementation General for Sudan and South Sudan, Haile

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) provided a roadmap for Sudan, South Sudan and the SPLM-N to resolve outstanding issues. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/302 (29 April 2015) was a report on UNISFA. AU Peace and Security Council Communiqué [PSC/PR/COMM.(CDLVI)], 12 September 2014

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Sudan and South Sudan (con’t)

Key Recent Developments national elections were conducted over a (frequently alleged and consistently denied) Mired in their respective domestic crises, four-day period starting on 13 April. Accord- by Sudan and South Sudan for rebel groups Sudan and South Sudan have been unable to ing to o"cial figures, voter turnout was 46 operating in each other’s territory could make progress on bi-lateral issues including percent, but many observers suspect that the potentially lead to an interstate conflict of border demarcation and the final status of the actual level of voter participation was lower. even greater magnitude. Abyei area. Furthermore, accusations con- During the run-up to the election, the tinue regarding cross-border military activity rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement- Options and support for rebel groups in each other’s North (SPLM-N) launched o!ensives in Incentives and disincentives—“carrots” and territory. On 8 April, South Sudan accused South Kordofan and Blue Nile states (the “sticks”—the Council could consider deploy- Sudan of bombing civilian areas just across Two Areas). This included shelling Kadugli, ing in support of the mediation work of Mbe- the border in Western and Northern Bahr the capital city of South Kordofan, attacking ki and Menkerios include: el Ghazal states. Sudan has denied respon- government forces and numerous garrisons • o!ering backing for debt relief in exchange sibility for these bombings. On 28 April, fol- and seizing a vehicle carrying ballot boxes. for peace and democratisation in Sudan lowing clashes between Sudan’s Rapid Sup- The stated purpose of the o!ensives was to (nearly 25 percent of Sudan’s total exter- port Forces (RSF) militia and the Justice disrupt the conduct of elections in the Two nal debt of $45 billion is held by France, and Equality Movement (JEM) rebel group, Areas in support of the boycott by opposition the US, China and the UK, in declining Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir threatened parties. Following the election, there appears order); to pursue JEM from South Darfur into South to be a renewed determination by govern- • requesting the Secretary-General to estab- Sudan, whose government he accused of pro- ment forces to undertake o!ensives against lish an independent commission of inqui- viding support to the Darfuri rebels. the SPLM-N before the onset of the rainy ry to investigate allegations of war crimes The mediation process led by former season. On 4 May, Mohamad Hamdan Daglo, committed in South Kordofan and Blue South African President Thabo Mbeki, chair commander of the RSF, vowed to intensify Nile; of the AU High-Level Implementation Pan- attacks on the SPLM-N. On 6 May, Defence • imposing (or threatening to impose) a tar- el on Sudan and South Sudan (AUHIP), Minister Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein geted asset freeze, travel ban and territorial appears to have reached an impasse once claimed that the Sudan Armed Forces and arms embargo over South Kordofan and again. On 1 April, AUHIP released a state- RSF would “clear out the rebels”. Blue Nile; and ment announcing an indefinite suspension Council members last held consultations • requesting a report from the Secretariat of the pre-dialogue meeting initially sched- on Sudan and South Sudan on 24 March, on alleged support by Sudan and South uled for 30 and 31 March. (On 12 Septem- when Menkerios briefed via video teleconfer- Sudan for rebel groups on either side of ber 2014, the AU Peace and Security Coun- ence. More recently, Assistant Secretary-Gen- the border. cil mandated AUHIP to facilitate an e!ective, eral for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond transparent and inclusive national dialogue Mulet briefed Council members in consulta- Council Dynamics among Sudanese stakeholders, including the tions on 5 May regarding the latest Secretary- While there seems to be frustration among convening of a meeting to resolve procedural General’s report on the UN Interim Security Council members that Sudan and South and process issues.) AUHIP suspended the Force for Abyei (UNISFA). One issue that has Sudan have not made progress in resolv- pre-dialogue meeting due to a lack of partici- implications for Sudan-South Sudan relations ing fundamental border-related challenges, pation by relevant stakeholders, particularly beyond the status of Abyei is the operation members realise that the internal crises in representatives of Sudan’s governing Nation- of the Joint Border Verification and Monitor- both countries have made it di"cult for them al Congress Party (NCP). On 10 April, the ing Mechanism (JBVMM), which UNISFA is to exert the energy and attention required to head of the government’s negotiating team, mandated to support. According to the Sec- address these bilateral issues. Ibrahim Ghandour, attributed the NCP’s retary-General’s 29 April report on UNISFA, Divisions on the Council regarding South refusal to participate to its objections regard- an assessment of the JBVMM is underway, Kordofan and Blue Nile continue to prevent ing holding the AUHIP-mediated negotia- and its conclusions will be presented to the it from playing a constructive role in miti- tions prior to upcoming national elections. Council prior to consideration of UNISFA’s gating the su!ering of civilians, as the gov- On 27 April, Omar al-Bashir was re-elect- mandate renewal in July. ernment prevents humanitarian aid from ed president of Sudan with 94 percent of the reaching rebel-held territories and carries out vote in an election boycotted by the major Key Issues indiscriminate aerial bombardments. These opposition parties. The troika countries (Nor- The principal challenge is whether and how divisions also appear to have pre-empted way, the UK and the US) issued a statement the Council can encourage constructive innovative thinking regarding how it could criticising Sudan’s “failure to create a free, negotiations between Sudan and the SPLM- more influentially intercede in support of fair and conducive elections environment” N, particularly as a considerable escalation external mediation e!orts aimed at resolving and stating that “the outcome of these elec- of the conflict in the Two Areas appears to conflict in the Two Areas. tions cannot be considered a credible expres- be imminent. The US is the penholder on Sudan/South sion of the will of the Sudanese people”. The An underlying risk is that support Sudan issues.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Libya

Expected Council Action usually at risk of torture and other ill-treat- sea since the beginning of January. In June, the Council will be briefed on devel- ment. UNSMIL also reported abductions Briefing the Council on 12 May, the ICC opments in the Libya political process by Ber- committed by the Benghazi Revolutionar- Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, referred to the nardino León, the Special Representative and ies Shura Council (BRSC), which is domi- 10 December 2014 ICC decision on the non- head of the UN Support Mission in Libya nated by Ansar al-Sharia, an Al-Qaida a"li- compliance of Libya with the Court regarding (UNSMIL). The Council will also receive the ate. According to resolution 2213, adopted the case against Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. (The periodic briefing by the chair of the 1970 Lib- on 27 March, human rights and humanitar- Court referred the matter back to the Council ya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Ram- ian law violations are considered designation given the failure of Libya to comply with the lan Ibrahim (Malaysia), followed by consulta- criteria for sanctions. A resolution adopted ICC in accordance with article 87.7 of the tions on the Libya sanctions regime. by the Human Rights Council on 27 March Rome Statute.) Bensouda encouraged the The mandates of UNSMIL and the Panel requested the High Commissioner to urgent- Council not only to press Libyan authorities of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions ly dispatch a mission to investigate violations to comply but also to consult with the Court Committee expire on 15 September and 30 and abuses of international human rights law to resolve any problems that may impede or April 2016, respectively. committed in Libya since the beginning of prevent the execution of this decision. 2014. Key Recent Developments Groups pledging allegiance to the Islamic Sanctions-Related Developments Briefing Council members on 29 April, León State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) continue Resolution 2213, adopted on 27 March, reiterated the Council’s willingness to impose sanctions on said he had shared a draft agreement with the to clash with both warring coalitions, nota- those threatening the peace, stability or security parties providing for the formation of a gov- bly in Sirte and Derna. Fighting also persists ernment of national unity, with the House of between Operation Dignity and the BRSC in Representatives as the legislative body and a the east. A string of suicide bombings in al- Sanctions Committee included a proposed list new High State Council as an advisory body. Qubba (19 May), Sirte (20 May) and Misrata of 13 people who were found to be obstructing or undermining the successful completion of the He told Council members of his intention to (21 May) were claimed by ISIS. political transition. (This designation criterion was convene the first direct talks among armed On the smuggling of migrants on the established in resolution 2174 of 27 August 2014.) groups in early May, and to finalise an agree- Mediterranean Sea, coming mostly through Even though León has repeatedly emphasised ment before the start of Ramadan (17 June). Libya, the Council was briefed about the the usefulness of sanctions to advance the politi- So far, the parties have objected to the propos- EU response on 11 May by Federica Mogh- cal process, no member state has submitted a name to the Committee for listing. al made by León and have yet to meet again. erini, the EU High Representative for For- The round of talks with the armed groups that eign A!airs and Security Policy. The Council was planned for early May was cancelled. was also briefed by the permanent observ- Key Issues Despite UNSMIL’s mediation e!orts, er of the AU to the UN, Ambassador Téte An overarching issue is achieving a cease- fighting continues between the two main António, and Peter Sutherland, the Special fire between warring parties and supporting coalitions—Misrata-based and Islamist mili- Representative of the Secretary-General for the dialogue process facilitated by León to tias (collectively known as Libya Dawn) and international migration. In an informal inter- bridge the current stando! between institu- Zintan-based militias and elements of the active dialogue held afterwards, Mogherini tions based in Tripoli and Tobruk/al-Bayda. army commanded by General Khalifa Haf- discussed the need for a resolution that would Related to this is the role of regional and tar (Operation Dignity). There were renewed authorise an EU operation to use all neces- international actors that are contributing to outbreaks of violence in several neighbour- sary measures to inspect, seize and dispose the escalation of conflict in Libya. hoods in Tripoli in mid-April and May, mili- of vessels when there are grounds to believe Stopping continual violations of inter- tary operations are ongoing in Benghazi and that they are participating in the smuggling national humanitarian law by the parties is there were renewed clashes between Tabu of migrants. Such a mission (EU NAVFOR an urgent issue, together with ensuring that and Touareg tribes in southern Libya. Med) was established by the EU Council on accountability mechanisms are addressed in Violations of human rights and interna- 18 May and at press time negotiations were the UN-facilitated talks. tional humanitarian law are ongoing. In mid- ongoing among some Council members on The growing threat posed in Libya by ter- May, UNSMIL condemned the shelling of a draft resolution authorising the mission. rorist groups with regional reach is of increas- residential areas in Benghazi, Gheryan, al- According to the International Organization ing urgency. Zawiya and the loss of civilian lives, including for Migration and the UN High Commis- An immediate issue for Council members children. On 15 May, UNSMIL released a sioner for Refugees, more than 141,000 per- is the impact on the political process and the briefing note reporting on the spike in abduc- sons (including migrants, asylum-seekers and mediation of the e!ort to obtain Libya’s con- tions of civilians since March by both Lib- refugees) travelled from Libya to Italy across sent for the EU operation. ya Dawn and Operation Dignity. UNSMIL the Mediterranean in unseaworthy boats in has documented how those abducted are 2014, and up to 1,800 have drowned in the

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2214S/RES/2213 (27 March 2015) renewed UNSMIL and the 1970 Libya Panel of Experts. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7441 S/PV.7439 on the smuggling of migrants on the Mediterranean Sea. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/RES/28/30 (27 March 2015) requested the High Commissioner to dispatch a mission to investigate human rights violations in Libya since 2014.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Libya (con’t)

Options dialogue with Bensouda. The briefing was an of the implementation of sanctions or coun- The Council could impose sanctions on lead- opportunity to follow-up on Court decisions ter-piracy measures. Some Council members ers of armed groups and other spoilers that on Libya and it showed how, in addition to feel strongly about not contravening the prin- threaten the peace, stability or security of the di"culties posed by members that are not ciple of freedom of navigation codified in the Libya, and/or on those violating, or assisting parties to the ICC, Council members that are UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. As in the evasion of, the provisions of the arms parties to the Rome Statute have not been such, they have tended to focus their discus- embargo on Libya as per resolution 2213. able to find a common voice on this issue. sions in the past on such issues as the pro- The negotiations on the EU draft aimed cedures to authorise interdiction, whether Council and Wider Dynamics at tackling the smuggling of migrants on the the consent of the flag state is required and On several occasions, Council members have Mediterranean were still ongoing at press the maritime zones where the interdiction is asked León to assess the usefulness of impos- time between some Council members and authorised to happen. In the informal inter- ing sanctions on spoilers to the political process the Libyan authorities. (For at least one per- active dialogue with Mogherini, some Coun- in Libya, but it seems that some permanent manent member the consent of the Tobruk/ cil members inquired about the potential members are reluctant to use this tool. No dis- al-Bayda-based government seems to be impact that requesting consent from Libya cussion in the 1970 Sanctions Committee has indispensable for the adoption of the reso- could have on the political process. taken place on the possibility of new listings. lution.) In the past, it has been di"cult to The UK is the penholder on Libya. On 11 May, Council members, at the get agreement on resolutions authorising the request of Chile, held an informal interactive interception of vessels, whether in the context

Syria

Expected Council Action two years and was briefly overtaken by the conflict, in particular the government. It In June, Council members expect to receive Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in noted that attacks on medical facilities were their regular monthly briefings on the chemi- early April. The US drafted a press statement the highest ever seen in comparison to pre- cal weapons and humanitarian tracks in Syria. condemning the government’s aerial bom- vious reporting periods. All fourteen of the While no outcome is planned, at press time bardment of the camp, which had resumed reported attacks were carried out by govern- the US draft resolution to set up a process to in late April. Russia insisted that the draft ment forces, over half by barrel bombs and attribute responsibility for the use of chlorine include references to the 64 people that were the remainder by missiles, rockets and mortar bombs in Syria was being discussed among killed on 1 May near Aleppo, allegedly as fire. The report underscored that the deliber- the P5. Meanwhile, the humanitarian leads— a result of a US-led anti-ISIS airstrike. No ate targeting of civilians via barrel bombs is Jordan, New Zealand and Spain—were dis- press statement was issued. a war crime and that those responsible must cussing with the P3 ways to strengthen the Nevertheless, the crisis in Yarmouk has be held accountable. Council’s response to the use of siege tactics refocused the Council’s attention on the use of On the political track, de Mistura launched in Syria and the violation of the principles of siege tactics in Syria. The humanitarian leads UN-facilitated consultations in Geneva on medical neutrality. are reviewing how to take up Under-Secre- 5 May among low-level representatives of Special Envoy for Syria Sta!an de Mis- tary-General for Humanitarian A!airs Valerie the Syrian government, the Syrian National tura has been in Geneva facilitating low-level Amos’s recommendation, made to the Council Coalition, the P5, neighbouring states and shuttle diplomacy on a political solution to in her 24 April briefing, to conduct a mission regional actors Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. the Syrian crisis. It seemed possible that he on the situation in besieged communities. The aim of these consultations is to find areas might report back to Council members this On 28 May, Amos presented the Secre- of commonality for implementing the Gene- month. tary-General’s most recent humanitarian va Communiqué, a political transition plan report during her final briefing to the Secu- agreed in June 2012 that has been continually Key Recent Developments rity Council in her role as head of OCHA. stymied over the role of President Bashar al On 4 May, de Mistura and UNRWA repre- The report detailed the plight of the 422,000 Assad and Iran’s support for the regime. sentative Michael Kingsley-Nyinah briefed people besieged in Syria, largely by the gov- The consultations had a rocky start on Council members under “any other business” ernment and ISIS. The report said that, 11 May when the Syrian National Coalition on the situation in Yarmouk—a Palestinian aside from the security situation, the lack refused to attend due to its concerns that de refugee camp on the outskirts of Damascus of humanitarian access is a consequence Mistura was too partial to the government’s that has been besieged by the government for of active obstruction by the parties to the position and that Iran was invited to participate.

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2209 (6 March 2015) and S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) were on chemical weapons. S/RES/2139 (22 February 2014), S/RES/2165 (14 July 2014) and S/RES/2191 (17 December 2014) were on the humanitarian situation. Security Council Press Statement SC/11904 (22 May 2015) was on the seizure of Palmyra by ISIS. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7452Secretary-General’s Reports S/2015/368 (22 May 2015) was on the humanitarian situation. S/2015/295 (28 April 2015) was on chemical weapons.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Syria (con’t)

Similarly, there has been no discernible shift in such as the political consultations de Mistura Sellström investigation into the sarin attack Syria’s or Russia’s position, with both priori- is facilitating and the ongoing P5+1 negotia- on Ghouta and the work of the fact-find- tising a “united front” against terrorism over tions on the Iran nuclear file. ing mission of the OPCW into the chlorine discussions of a political transition. The Council has found a modicum of bomb attacks. Because such a team would be Meanwhile, Iran has been invited but agreement on humanitarian, non-prolifera- reviewing existing evidence there would be no whether it will participate is less clear. Ongo- tion and counter-terrorism e!orts, but there need to enter Syria. If the reviewed evidence ing P5+1 talks on the Iranian nuclear file are has not been the corresponding ability to warranted attribution, the findings could set to conclude in June. It remains an open e!ectively stop or hold accountable a gov- be brought to the attention of the Security question whether a rapprochement between ernment that systematically attacks its own Council by the Secretary-General. Washington and Tehran on the nuclear file citizens. In practice, the Council has limited will create momentum toward resolving the its options to receiving more briefings that Council and Wider Dynamics Syrian crisis or further aggravate regional confirm what is already widely known about Despite overwhelming indications that vari- rivalries between Saudi Arabia and Iran. the brutal tactics by the government and ous resolutions threatening consequences for On 7 May, Council members received extremist groups. In this context, options for lack of implementation have continually been their monthly briefing on the destruction of the Council include: breached, it is unlikely that Council mem- Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. During • inviting the Commission of Inquiry or the bers will push for follow-up measures, such these consultations, allegations were raised High Commissioner for Human Rights to as targeted sanctions or another attempt at that the government had used chlorine give periodic briefings to the Council; an ICC referral. The assumption that Rus- bombs in March and April during clashes • inviting Special Representative on Sexual sia would veto any e!ort specific to the gov- with opposition groups over control of Idlib. Violence in Conflict Zainab Bangura to ernment remains a deterrent. Any discussion The US has drafted a resolution to set up a brief on her 16-29 April visit to Syria and of a Council-authorised no-fly zone is also a process to attribute responsibility for the use to the countries that host the conflict’s non-starter among Council members, due to of chlorine bombs. However, at the time of refugees (Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Tur- Russia’s veto power but also the lack of US writing it had only been shared with the P5. key); and interest in pursuing this course of action. On 19 May, Council members agreed to • taking up Amos’s 24 April recommenda- Indeed, the Council’s ability to agree on “press elements” condemning a mortar attack tion for the Security Council to mandate countering violent extremism while simulta- on the Russian embassy in Damascus. a mission to assess the needs among and neously being impotent to counter the gov- facilitate sustained access to besieged ernment’s responsibility for the devastating Key Issues communities. violence in Syria was demonstrated in a 22 The overarching key issue for the Council— An option for Council members con- May press statement on the ISIS’s seizure of in the fifth year of the civil war—is to find cerned about the government’s continued Palmyra, a world heritage site. While the state- ways to show leadership, particularly in sup- use of chlorine bombs would be to put for- ment highlighted the Syrian authorities’ pri- porting a cessation of violence and resuscitat- ward a resolution determining that Syria has mary responsibility to protect civilians it did ing e!orts for a political solution. breached resolutions 2118 and 2209 and not directly condemn the government, despite Ongoing issues include how to get agree- impose targeted sanctions. Given that chlo- reports that Syrian forces blocked civilians ment to follow up on the violations of resolu- rine is delivered in barrel bombs, such an from leaving Palmyra ahead of ISIS’s takeover. tions 2139, 2165 and 2191 on the humanitar- outcome could be an opportunity to address On the political track, Council members ian situation and 2118 and 2209 on chemical the broader and more pervasive issue of indis- expect de Mistura will likely want to limit weapons—in particular aerial bombardment criminate aerial bombardment. expectations about whether conditions on and the use of chlorine bombs. Another option is to follow up on the US the ground have shifted enough to untangle suggestion for an “attribution mechanism” what has become known as the “Assad knot” Options on the use of chemical weapons. The US has enshrined in the Geneva Communiqué—i.e. While the Council has many tools at its dis- drafted a Chapter 7 resolution that creates trying to find openings between Iran’s and posal—such as imposing an arms embargo the legal obligation for Syria to allow access Russia’s support for the Assad regime and the or targeted sanctions, referring Syria to the for a panel to travel to sites of alleged chemi- position of the P3 and their Arab allies that ICC and authorising a no-fly zone to deter cal weapons attacks since resolution 2209 Assad must go. Council members acknowl- Syria from using its aerial capacity—P5 divi- was adopted in March and report its findings edge that the Geneva consultations may be sions have made it impossible for the Council back to the Council. However, the Chapter 7 little more than a place holder until there is to fulfil its role in maintaining international provision continues to be a red line for Rus- a major shift on the part of the US or Russia peace and security in the case of Syria. While sia and, at time of writing, the draft had not to tilt the balance toward a political solution. some feel that such action might be the lever- been discussed beyond the P5. An alternative US Secretary of State John Kerry met with age the Council requires to shift the parties’ to a Council-mandated panel would be for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign priorities towards a negotiated solution, the the Secretary-General to establish his own Minister Sergei Lavrov on 12 May to discuss Council has a history of not escalating pres- investigative team. It could be charged with the Iranian nuclear file as well as Syria, report- sure in the midst of other sensitive processes, independently reviewing the work of the 2013 edly without any significant breakthroughs.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Syria (con’t)

On the chemical weapons track, fun- the OPCW has the capacity to fully assess take if it makes it out of the confines of the P5. damental di!erences remain. The US has the situation. While the OPCW fact-finding France is the penholder on Syria over- maintained that it views resolution 2209 to mission can investigate whether chlorine has all. Jordan, New Zealand and Spain lead on be a final warning to Damascus before con- been used as a weapon, its mandate prohibits humanitarian issues. In practice, however, most sequences are sought for its use of chlorine it from attributing responsibility. Many Coun- texts need to be agreed between Russia and the bombs. Russia insists that the Council can- cil members are curious about what form the US prior to agreement by the broader Council. not apportion blame to Damascus since only US-suggested “attribution mechanism” might

UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action Tehran-backed Lebanese militia fighting on these transfers and interactions as humanitar- The Council is expected to extend for six the side of the Syrian regime. ian in nature while Hezbollah suspects Israel months the mandate of the UN Disengage- The forthcoming Secretary-General’s of aiding Al-Nusra in the south. ment Observer Force (UNDOF), which report is expected to describe the ongo- Hezbollah has said that the Golan and expires on 30 June. A representative of the ing clashes between government forces and south Lebanon are now a single front against Department of Peacekeeping Operations armed opposition groups and between com- Israel. In mid-May Israeli military o"cials (DPKO) will brief Council members in con- peting armed groups in the area of separa- alluded to another looming confrontation sultations on the UNDOF report, due on 11 tion. The presence of Syrian armed forces with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran June. and heavy weapons in the mission’s area of responded that any Israeli attack would lead The Council will hold its regular meet- separation, Syrian airstrikes, Israeli airstrikes to Hezbollah’s missiles being fired on Israeli ing with troop-contributing countries prior and artillery fire over the ceasefire line are cities. However, the militia’s presence in the to adopting the mandate renewal. Separately, all violations of the Disengagement of Forc- Golan may have little to do with this esca- the Council will be briefed in June by force es Agreement. (No military forces other than lation in rhetoric or an aggressive posture commanders, including the head of the UN those of UNDOF are allowed in the area of towards Israel from the Golan. Their pres- Truce Supervision Organization, which pro- separation.) Errant fire from these clashes ence is more likely linked to assisting the Syr- vides UNDOF with military observers. lightly injured UN personnel in two separate ian government in securing areas south of UNDOF was established in 1974 to moni- incidents on 1 and 4 May. Damascus from opposition fighters. Hezbol- tor the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. The report is also expected to describe the lah also wants to secure the Golan from any 26 April Israeli airstrike that killed four men Al-Nusra infiltration into Hezbollah’s strong- Key Recent Developments whom Israel suspected of planting explosive hold in neighbouring southern Lebanon. Due to the spillover of the Syrian civil war devices near the technical fence dividing Mt. Hermon straddles this border area into UNDOF’s area of operations, the mis- the Alpha and Bravo sides of the ceasefire between Syria and Lebanon, and UNDOF sion has significantly altered how it carries line. Israel cleared the area before UNDOF has observed increased movements between out its mandate. The majority of UNDOF was able to investigate. According to media Lebanon and the Golan since the Syrian peacekeepers relocated from the Bravo (Syr- reports, this strike occurred two days after crisis began. Mt. Hermon’s location makes ian) side to the Alpha (Israeli) side of the Israel had targeted a Syrian military facility it a strategic position requiring a sustained ceasefire line in September 2014, shortly after housing long-range missiles that Israel sus- UNDOF presence. If UNDOF were to aban- Al-Nusra Front overran Syrian government pected were to be transferred to Hezbollah. don it, there would be unimpeded access forces in Quneitra—a Syrian district close to Syrian authorities have acknowledged to across the border. the Israeli-occupied Golan. Some peacekeep- UNDOF that Syria’s “allies” carry out mili- ers are still deployed on the Syrian side at Mt. tary operations, a veiled reference to Hezbol- Key Issues Hermon, and the UNDOF command has lah. Israel has maintained that it has a neu- The spillover of the Syrian crisis into UND- moved its headquarters from Camp Faouar tral policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis except to OF’s area of operations and escalating cease- in the area of operation to Damascus. block any transfer of strategic weapons via fire violations will be of primary concern to The civil war in Syria continues to adverse- Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Despite Isra- the Council. ly a!ect UNDOF’s ability to function and el’s claims of neutrality, for more than a year Given the deteriorating security situation increases the possibility of escalating tensions UNDOF has observed the transfer of people in the Golan, the full return of UNDOF to not only between Israel and Syria but also and cargo trucks across the ceasefire line, as the Syrian side seems unlikely in the foresee- between Israel and Lebanon due to the overt well as Israeli forces interacting with mem- able future, significantly constraining the mis- presence in the Golan of Hezbollah—the bers of armed groups. Israel characterises sion’s ability to carry out its monitoring tasks.

Security Council Resolution S/RES/2192 (18 December 2014) renewed UNDOF for six months. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/177 (13 March 2015) was the most recent UNDOF report. Force Commander Major General Purna Chandra Thapa (Nepal) Size of Mission 785 troops Troop Contributors Fiji, India, Ireland, Nepal and the Netherlands

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 13 UNDOF (Golan Heights) (con’t)

In that respect, the key issue for the Coun- Alpha (Israeli) side, which has restricted the exacerbated by the presence of Hezbollah. cil is whether UNDOF should be allowed mission’s mobility and operational capacity. The Council has always generally agreed more mobility for its patrolling tasks on the DPKO is in active conversations with both that UNDOF contributes to stability in the Israeli side of the ceasefire line, in particular parties on ways it can continue its observa- region in the absence of a peace agreement access to elevated sites on hilltops. (DPKO tion tasks. between Israel and Syria. However, its liai- has discontinued discussions regarding the In the resolution renewing the UNDOF son function is particularly important now in use of new technologies, such as unmanned, mandate, the Council could: order to avoid further negative security impli- unarmed aerial vehicles or satellite imagery, • support DPKO’s e!orts; cations for the region. For that reason, most to carry out observation tasks. Permission • reiterate the need for all parties to exercise members are keen for the Council to sustain was not forthcoming from either party.) restraint; the support of troop-contributing countries Regarding risk mitigation, an issue is how • urge Israel to allow UNDOF to establish to ensure UNDOF’s ability to operate, even the safe and sustained provision of supplies more positions west of the ceasefire line on in its currently constrained configuration. to the remaining peacekeepers on the Syrian the Alpha side, given the mission’s limited While both Israel and Syria highly value side of the ceasefire line will be guaranteed. mobility there, in particular access to ele- UNDOF’s presence and want to see the Mt. Hermon is strategically important for vated sites for improved observation; and return of the mission to the Bravo side, it Israel, and if there were no UNDOF security • urge Syria to allow UNDOF to reinforce seems that if the security situation does not presence there, Israel might feel compelled Mt. Hermon, in particular by enabling the improve on the Bravo side by year’s end then to man the position itself. This would be an position to be supplied from the Bravo DPKO may recommend that the Council especially di"cult challenge to regional secu- side by establishing another base between reassess the mission. rity and the 1974 disengagement agreement. Damascus and Mt. Hermon. Though the US is the penholder on the Golan Heights, resolutions renewing UND- Options Council and Wider Dynamics OF have been jointly authored with Russia UNDOF was established as a Syria-based Council members are concerned about the since June 2012, suggesting consensus on an mission. How it operates is subject to the increasing clashes in the area of operations, aspect of the Syria file that is otherwise char- disengagement agreement, and any changes both in number and intensity, as well as acterised by highly divisive P5 dynamics. require agreement by Israel and Syria. The the tension between Israel and Syria along majority of personnel are now based on the the armistice line, which has been greatly

Iran

Expected Council Action the Joint Plan of Action initially agreed on 24 • convert its Fordow facility so that it can no In June, the Council is due to renew the November 2013 until 30 June 2015, but set longer enrich uranium; mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the an initial deadline of 31 March for agreeing • redesign and rebuild the Arak heavy-water 1737 Iran Sanctions Committee. (According on a political framework containing the main research reactor so that it will not produce to resolution 2159 the mandate expires on 9 elements of a final accord, leaving time for weapons-grade plutonium; and July, but the Council expressed its intention technical details to be worked out during the • implement the Additional Protocol of the to take action regarding further extension by remaining three months.) IAEA, grant expanded access for verifica- 9 June.) Later in the month, the chair of the The US issued a press release that same tion purposes and implement an agreed Committee, Ambassador Román Oyarzun day outlining what was termed “key parame- set of measures to address concerns about (Spain), is scheduled to brief the Council. ters … that were decided” in the negotiations. the possible military dimensions of its According to this, Iran agreed to: nuclear programme. Key Recent Developments • reduce by approximately two-thirds the According to the press release, if Iran “veri- On 2 April, Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, number of installed centrifuges for enrich- fiably abides by its commitments”, US and EU Germany, Russia, the UK and the US) ing uranium, from some 19,000 to 6,104, sanctions would be suspended. If, on the other announced that they had reached “solutions with only 5,060 of these enriching urani- hand, Iran at any time fails to fulfil its commit- on key parameters of a Joint Comprehensive um for ten years; ments, the sanctions would “snap back into Plan of Action” regarding Iran’s nuclear pro- • not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for place”. With regard to sanctions imposed by gramme and would start writing a text with at least 15 years and reduce its current the Security Council, all existing resolutions on the aim of reaching a final deal by 30 June. stockpile of low-enriched uranium from Iran would be lifted simultaneously with Iran’s (On 24 November 2014 the parties extended 10,000 kilograms to 300 kilograms. completion of its commitments. However, at

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2159 (9 June 2014) extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 9 July 2015. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7412Other A/HRC/RES/28/21 (27 March 2015) was the Human Rights Council resolution on Iran. A/HRC/28/70 (12 March 2015) was the report by the special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Iran (con’t)

the same time, core Council provisions deal- been reported to the Committee since the previ- adopted by the US Congress will have an ing with transfer of sensitive technology and impact on the timing of any Council action. activities would be re-established by a new The Sanctions Committee has not met since Another key issue for the Council in 4 February. At press time, it was scheduled to Council resolution endorsing the final agree- June is the mandate renewal for the Panel ment and urging its full implementation. Such Panel of Experts under resolution 2159. Accord- of Experts in light of the uncertainties sur- a resolution would also create a special, dedi- ing to the report, available to Council members rounding the outcome of the negotiations; cated procurement channel for Iran’s nucle- in April, the Panel had not received any new inci- and whether there should be any follow-up ar programme, to monitor and approve the dent reports from member states about illicit Ira- Committee action at this stage in response to nian procurement activities. However, this did not transfer to Iran of certain nuclear-related and necessarily mean that there had been a reduction the Panel of Experts’ report. dual-use materials and technology. It would include continued restrictions on conventional among states about any action that could nega- Options weapons and ballistic missiles as well as provi- tively impact the ongoing negotiations. The report Options for the Panel of Experts’ mandate sions on cargo inspections and asset freezes. In renewal include: was aware of an active Iranian procurement net- subsequent comments, however, Iranian For- • taking a business-as-usual approach, i.e. eign Minister Javad Zarif said that some of the Electric Company. Other member states had also extending the mandate unchanged for parameters listed by the US contradicted what informed the Panel that they believed Iran’s pro- another 13 months, but adding a new Iran believed had been agreed. curement practices and sanctions circumvention review provision; At press time, talks were continuing in techniques remained unchanged. There were no • adopting a short technical roll-over of a new recommendations in the report, but the Panel Vienna after several rounds of negotiations few months; or referred to those in the previous report as still valid. elsewhere, including in New York on the side- • taking no action at this stage and instead lines of the review conference for the Non-Pro- waiting to see if an agreement is reached liferation Treaty from 27 April to 22 May. The Human Rights-Related Developments in order to incorporate any changes that modalities for the lifting of sanctions apparent- On 27 March, the Human Rights Council adopted might be required in relation to the Panel a resolution on the situation of human rights in ly remained a key sticking point, with internal and the role of the Committee. Iran that also extended the mandate of the spe- di!erences among the P5 possibly adding to cial rapporteur, Ahmed Shaheed, for one year. On In addition, elected members could the di"culties. While the US has made clear 8 May, Shaheed and the special rapporteur on request a briefing by the P5 on the current it wants to make sure that any lifting of UN extrajudicial executions, Christof Heyns, issued state of the negotiations with Iran, in particu- sanctions can be easily reversed—what nego- a statement condemning the sharp increase in lar on the main elements of the future res- executions in Iran and urging the government to tiators refer to as “snapback”—Russia seemed olution referred to in the framework agree- establish a moratorium with a view to abolishing to argue in comments to the press that even if the practice altogether. According to the state- ment, opportunities for elected members to Iran is found to be in non-compliance with a ment, between 9 and 26 April as many as 98 be involved in the process and the expected final accord, sanctions should not be automat- prisoners were reported to have been executed, timing of Council action. ically re-imposed. Another main sticking point an average of more than six per day, bringing the total number of executions since 1 January appeared to focus on the monitoring and veri- Council Dynamics to more than 340, including at least six political fication measures to be included in the agree- prisoners and seven women. In many instances, Given the current stage of the P5+1 nego- ment, in particular with regard to access by - tiations with Iran, Council members remain inspectors to military sites. es, and the names of prisoners had not been pub- in a waiting mode. There is some frustration On 14 May, the US Congress approved a lished, the statement added. among elected members about the lack of bill that will require President Barack Obama information, in particular as to what to expect to send the text of any final agreement with Key Issues in terms of Council action, but there is also an Iran to Congress for review as soon as it is A key issue for the Council is what action understanding that the political realities in this completed. The bill gives Congress 30 days will be required in the event of an agreement case make it hard to have an inclusive process. to review and vote on the agreement, dur- between Iran and the P5+1 and the future With regard to the Panel of Experts’ ing which congressionally imposed sanctions role of the Council in monitoring compliance mandate renewal, some Council members against Iran cannot be lifted. (If the agree- with the agreement. It is clear from media believe the best solution at this stage, given ment is submitted after 10 July, the review reports that discussions are already well the uncertainties about the outcome of the period will be 60 days.) under way among the P5 on the new Council negotiations with Iran and the potential for resolution foreseen as part of the agreement, additional delays, would be to simply extend Sanctions-Related Developments but key details still have to be worked out as it for another 13 months with the under- part of the larger deal. However, there is no standing that the Council can review it at Oyarzun reiterated what his predecessor said in current mechanism for the P5 to keep the any time if required. It seems, however, that Council’s elected members at least minimally a short-term technical roll-over is considered while negotiations with the P5+1 continued and informed about the negotiation process and the more likely outcome. that member states remained obliged to imple- the planned Council resolution. The US is the penholder on Iran. ment them. He said that no new incidents had A related issue is whether the review bill

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Afghanistan

Expected Council Action The intensity of fighting in the north rep- Electoral Reform Commission, composed In June, the Council will hold its quarterly resented the continued expansion of the Tali- of 15 members including a UN representa- debate on Afghanistan, during which it will ban insurgency beyond its more traditional tive. As expected, elections for the Wolesi Jir- consider the Secretary-General’s 90-day areas of fighting in the south and east. This ga, scheduled to be held by 23 May, did not report on the UN Assistance Mission in year also marks the first time that the ANSF is take place. The terms of the current members Afghanistan (UNAMA). Special Representa- confronting the Taliban o!ensive without the expire in June. (Some Afghan o"cials have tive Nicholas Haysom, the head of UNAMA, support of the International Security Assis- indicated that the elections could take place is expected to brief. tance Force (ISAF), which withdrew at the in October, though it seems more likely that Also during June, the 1988 Taliban end of 2014 and was followed by a smaller parliamentary and district elections will only Sanctions Committee will likely consider a NATO training mission, called the Resolute be organised next year due to security con- report of the Analytical Support and Sanc- Support Mission (RSM). cerns and plans for electoral reforms.) tions Monitoring Team. The report, due by Terrorist attacks in urban areas have con - 1 June in accordance with paragraph (a) of tinued. A suicide bomber killed 35 people Sanctions-Related Developments the annex of resolution 2160, is expected to and injured more than 100 in Jalalabad on The 1988 Taliban Sanctions Committee met with Special Representative Haysom on 25 March. provide recommendations on improving the 18 April. An attack by the Taliban on the Park The following day the Committee held a meet- implementation of sanctions measures. Palace Hotel in Kabul on 13 May left 14 peo- ing with Afghanistan’s National Security Council No outcome is expected from the Council ple dead, including nine foreigners. The capi- Adviser, Mohammad Hanif Atmar. The meetings meeting. At press time, specific Committee tal has seen a number of other attacks, includ- were organised in order for the Committee to gain actions were not anticipated either. ing a 17 May bombing near the entrance to a deeper understanding of the situation on the ground and the impact and role of the sanctions the heavily secured international airport in regime. At press time, Committee members were Key Recent Developments which two teenage girls and a British contrac- still awaiting the latest report of the Analytical Sup- The civilian population continues to bear a tor were killed and 18 people were wounded. port and Sanctions Monitoring Team, expected by heavy toll as a result of the conflict. On 12 On the political front, President Ashraf 1 June, on the implementation of the sanctions. April, UNAMA released civilian casualty fig- Ghani and Chief Executive O"cer Abdullah ures from January to March 2015, revealing Abdullah announced 16 ministerial nomi- Human Rights-Related Developments that the trend of record-high civilian casual- nees on 21 March. The nominees were sub- Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights ties continued from 2014. There was a two sequently confirmed by the Wolesi Jirga (the April to assess the human rights impact of the percent decrease in civilian casualties (total- Afghan lower house) and were sworn in on 21 handover of security responsibilities to the ANSF ling 1,810) compared to the same period in April. Seven months after Ghani and Abdul- and increased ground engagements across the 2014, but civilian casualties caused by ground lah’s agreement to establish a power-sharing - engagements between pro-government forces national unity government, the appointments government ministers, the chair of the Afghan and anti-government elements were up eight represented the near-completion of their Independent Human Rights Commission, civil percent. cabinet, which now comprises 24 ministers. society organisations and women’s rights NGOs. In early April, the Taliban overran a num- On 21 May, President Ghani nominated ber of army checkpoints in the north-eastern Mohammed Masoom Stanekzai as defence 18 April strongly condemning the brutal suicide province of Badakhshan, killing twenty-one minister, the last appointment outstanding, attack in Jalalabad that day, which coincided with soldiers and police. Heavy fighting has con- who now needs parliamentary approval. launch of a new report by UNAMA and the UN tinued in the province. The Taliban announced From 2 to 3 May, Taliban representatives the launch of its annual o!ensive in a state- and Afghan o"cials met in their personal the Eyes of Afghan Women: Cases of Violence ment on 22 April and violent incidents esca- capacity along with civic activists at a con- against Women Addressed through Mediation lated across much of the country. On 24 April, ference in Qatar organised by the Pugwash and Court Adjudication. The report documents the Taliban attacked Kunduz city, the capital of Council, a Nobel Peace laureate. The infor- the experiences of 110 women and girls in seek- ing accountability and redress for violence com- the northern province of Kunduz. The attack, mal discussions have been described as a pos- mitted against them. In a 21 April statement at which caught the Afghan National Securi- sible first step towards starting more formal ty Forces (ANSF) by surprise and included negotiations. Secret talks were held from 19 to opportunities for peace talks that would have fighters from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz- 20 May, hosted by China in the north-western been unimaginable only a few months ago, but stan, Turkey and Chechnya, led to concerns city of Urumqi and also involving the cooper- test the strength of the security forces, hoping to that the city would be overrun, and thousands ation of Pakistan, bringing together Stanekzai gain leverage in future negotiations. He empha- of reinforcements had to be deployed in order and three former senior Taliban o"cials. The sised that it is unacceptable that Afghans should to hold it. According to the spokesman for the meeting reportedly focused on discussing pre- face such violence on a daily basis and there o"ce of the UN High Commissioner for Ref- conditions for a possible peace process. can be no doubt that the tactics used represent ugees in Kabul, at least 100,000 people fled In other developments, Ghani signed war crimes, and those responsible for organis- ing or perpetrating such attacks must be brought their homes due to the fighting around the city. a decree on 21 March establishing the to justice. He also encouraged Afghanistan to

Security Council Resolution S/RES/2210 (16 March 2015) renewed the mandate of UNAMA until 17 March 2016. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7403 (16 March 2015) was a quarterly debate on the situation in Afghanistan.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Afghanistan (con’t)

institutionalise torture prevention by ratifying Drug tra"cking from opium production Most members emphasise that ending the the Optional Protocol to the Convention against and exploitation of natural resources, which fighting requires a political solution and Torture, which would lay the basis for a national provide funding for anti-government groups, therefore stress the importance of national inspection mechanism for places of detention, and welcomed the appointment that week of four is another issue. reconciliation and the role of other countries women as government ministers. in the region. China expressed last year an Options intention to play a greater mediating role, and Having renewed UNAMA’s mandate in the recent talks in Urumqi may signal prog- Key Issues March, the most likely option is for the Coun- ress in these e!orts. A key issue is the ongoing violence and the cil to hold the debate without taking addi- At their last debate, members were keen need for the Afghan security forces to main- tional action. to see the formation of the cabinet of the new tain stability in the country in light of the The Council could issue a statement unity government, which they see as critical in departure of ISAF. The high number of civil- expressing serious concern over the high num- order for the government to move forward on ian casualties caused by the conflict is a relat- ber of civilian casualties and demanding that all key reforms that can increase Afghans’ con- ed area of concern for members. sides avoid killing and injuring civilians, while fidence in the state and address the fragile Advancing a peace and reconciliation pro- recalling that targeting civilians is a war crime. economy—underlying issues that contribute cess is another important issue. to the insurgency. A number of members also Also important is how e!ectively Ghani, Council Dynamics emphasise the importance that gains in the Abdullah and their supporters continue to Council members are increasingly concerned rights of women since 2001 are consolidated work together in the government of nation- by the violence in Afghanistan and the impact and built upon. France and Russia are among al unity to advance reforms to address cor- of the conflict on civilians. They are particu- members that consistently highlight their con- ruption and improve governance and fiscal larly mindful that this year’s fighting is a test cerns about drug production and tra"cking. management. of the ANSF’s ability to maintain stability Spain is the penholder on Afghanistan Related to this is protecting advances in with NATO forces no longer playing a direct (including UNAMA), while New Zealand human rights, including women’s rights. role, as the RSM is a non-combat mission. chairs the 1988 Taliban Sanctions Committee.

Children and Armed Conflict

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments child protection advisor from Save the Chil- In June the Security Council will hold its sec- The Secretary-General’s annual report is dren in the Central African Republic (CAR), ond open debate this year on children and expected to cover global trends and provide Julie Bodin. Junior Nzita Nsuami, a former armed conflict. The debate, which will be updates on the implementation of relevant child soldier from the Democratic Republic chaired by Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Dato’ Council resolutions. Members will be partic- of the Congo (DRC) and president of the Sri Anifah Aman, is expected to focus on the ularly interested in whether any parties will be NGO Paix pour l’enfance shared his experi- Secretary-General’s annual report on children added or removed from the report’s annexes ences as a child soldier. and armed conflict. (Malaysia is the chair of for grave violations against children. (Last Both the Secretary-General and Zerrou- the Working Group on Children and Armed year’s annexes listed 51 armed groups and gui covered the growth of violent extremist Conflict.) Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon eight armed forces in 15 country situations.) groups, abductions and the “Children, Not and Special Representative for Children and There is particular interest about whether Soldiers” campaign in their briefings. (The Armed Conflict Leila Zerrougui, as well as Israel will be added to the Secretary-Gen- campaign is aimed at ending the recruitment representatives from the UN Children’s Fund eral’s annexes for violations against children and use of children by armed forces by 2016.) and civil society, are expected to speak. related to attacks on schools and hospitals Zerrougui also covered attacks on schools A resolution, possibly adding abductions during the Gaza war last summer. This year’s and hospitals by non-state armed groups, as an additional violation to trigger inclusion report is expected to be released just before girl victims and reintegration of children of a party in the Secretary-General’s annexes, the debate, which is later than usual. from armed groups, as well as mediation and is a likely outcome of the debate. Malaysia is On 27 March, the Council held an open peace processes as an entry point for securing planning to circulate a concept note ahead debate on children and armed conflict commitments from non-state armed groups. of the debate that will focus on abduction focused on child victims of non-state armed A number of member states focused on the of children and suggest that members dur- groups. There were briefings by the Secre- issue of abductions, citing the recent abduc- ing the debate provide their views on how to tary-General, Zerrougui, Deputy Executive tion of schoolgirls by Boko Haram in Nige- address and prevent abductions. Director of UNICEF Yoka Brandt and the ria and of Kurdish boys in Syria and Yazidi

Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7414 (25 March 2015) was an open debate focused on child victims of non-state groups. Security Council Letter S/2015/168 (6 March 2015) was a concept note circulated by France for the March open debate. Document S/AC.51/2015/1 (12 May 2015) were the conclusions on South Sudan.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Children and Armed Conflict (con’t) children in Iraq by the Islamic State of Iraq note, a peace deal between the South Sudan Options and al-Sham (ISIS), as well as abductions by Democratic Army/Movement-Cobra faction The most likely option for the Council at the groups in the CAR, DRC and Yemen. and the government has led to the release of open debate is to adopt a resolution adding Several states, including Council members 1,752 children since January. Furthermore, abductions as one of the violations that would Angola, Chad, France, Lithuania, Malaysia, on 4 May, South Sudan ratified the Conven- result in a party being listed in the Secretary- Spain and the UK, supported adding abduc- tion on the Rights of the Child. General’s annexes. tions as an additional trigger for listing of Members may consider an independent groups in the Secretary-General’s annexes. Developments in the Working Group on review of the children and armed conflict Following the debate, France circulated a architecture to mark the tenth anniversary of non-paper in its national capacity containing a On 6 February, the Special Representative intro- the adoption of resolution 1612, which set summary of the di!erent proposals and ideas up the Working Group and monitoring and expressed by participants during the debate. The Working Group adopted conclusions on the reporting mechanism. The aim of the non-paper was to facilitate a report on 8 May. However, it was not able to start In line with this, an option is to hold a follow-up on some of the issues during the working on another report, as the next report on retreat of the Working Group to discuss ways June debate on children and armed conflict. the programme of work, on Afghanistan, was not that it can better respond to fast-changing ready. At press time, no new Secretary-General’s On 8 May, Zerrougui and Special Rep- situations and build more flexibility into resentative on Sexual Violence in Conflict published in 2015, although reports on Afghani- its work. The e!ectiveness of the Working Zainab Hawa Bangura briefed members of stan, Chad, Iraq, and possibly the CAR, Somalia Group is limited by the rigidity of its work the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Commit- and Sudan are planned for this year. programme and working methods that do not tee. This briefing was a follow-up to resolu- allow it to act rapidly in changing situations. tion 2206, which applied financial and travel Key Issues Options for the Council to integrate chil- measures to individuals and entities involved In negotiating a draft resolution that adds dren and armed conflict concerns into its in violations against children and requested abductions as a new trigger, a key issue will country-specific work include briefings to the the Special Representatives to share informa- be how best to define abductions within Working Group from the O"ce of the Special tion with the Committee. the framework of international law. (While Representative, UNICEF and the Depart- The briefing by the two Special Represen- abductions, as such, are not addressed ment of Peacekeeping Operations ahead of tatives to the Sanctions Committee is timely, explicitly under international law, there are mandate renewals, and having the Working as the situation for children in South Sudan violations of international law that occur as Group chair work with the experts drafting has worsened since the start of the conflict in a consequence of abduction, including hos- resolutions on country-specific situations so December 2013. There had been some prog- tage-taking, forcible transfer of children and that appropriate language on children and ress between South Sudan’s independence in enforced disappearance.) If the draft reso- armed conflict is included in the initial draft. 2011 and the end of 2013 in protecting chil- lution contains language on detention, this dren, but since the outbreak of hostilities in is likely to be a contentious issue for some Council Dynamics December 2013, violations against children, members. Following several years when the composition particularly recruitment, have increased. The There is now a four to five-year gap of the Council made it di"cult to advance Secretary-General’s 2014 annual report list- between Secretary-General’s reports on chil- the children and armed conflict agenda, the ed several parties in South Sudan, including dren and armed conflict in country-specific current mix of members has the potential to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army and sev- situations, making it di"cult to follow up on broaden the agenda by adding to the viola- eral opposition groups. conclusions and put pressure on parties in tions that could trigger a listing. There are The government signed an action plan in the Secretary-General’s annexes. also signs that this greater openness could 2011 to end recruitment and use of children While having abductions as one of the prompt some members to push for improve- in the armed forces, to which it recommitted trigger violations may be useful as a politi- ments in the working methods of the Working itself during Zerrougui’s visit to South Sudan cal signal, an issue is how to put pressure on Group. However, it may be di"cult to move in June 2014. However, UNICEF estimates groups like Boko Haram and ISIS, as well away from established practices. that parties involved in the conflict have as other non-state armed groups, that are While the adoption of the South Sudan recruited up to 12,000 underage combat- unlikely to respond to exhortations to sign conclusions was relatively smooth, the ants since the start of the conflict in Decem- an action plan. upcoming negotiations on the draft resolution ber 2013. In February, UNICEF reported The Council’s ability to act with respect may be a more accurate gauge of members’ the abduction of up to 89 children in Upper to the impact on children when a new crisis positions on some of the more sensitive issues. Nile State, where thousands of people have emerges or a situation deteriorates continues been internally displaced. On a more positive to be an issue.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Counter-Terrorism

Expected Council Action would result in violations of the asset freeze by France), cooperation with international In June, the Council is scheduled to receive and targeted arms embargo and to report to organisations and other relevant UN bod- the semi-annual briefing from the chairs of the 1267/1989 Committee within 30 days of ies (chaired by Jordan) and transparency and its counter-terrorism-related committees, the interdiction in their territory. media outreach (chaired by the US). possibly followed by a debate. The briefers According to the work programme, a key will be Ambassador Gerard van Bohemen 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee task for the Committee this year will be pre- (New Zealand), chair of the 1267/1989 Al- The CTC has adopted its work programme paring for the 2016 comprehensive review. Qaida Sanctions Committee; Ambassador for 2015, which includes holding two special The Committee will develop a plan for the Raimonda Murmokaitė (Lithuania), chair meetings to discuss ways to stem the flow of review, identifying objectives, scope, timing of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee foreign terrorist fighters and to prevent ter- and participants in the process by mid-2015 (CTC); and Ambassador Román Oyarzun rorists from exploiting the internet and social and then create and execute a strategy based (Spain), chair of the 1540 Committee, which media, while respecting human rights and on that plan by 31 August 2015. focuses on the non-proliferation of weapons fundamental freedoms. The CTC’s Execu- In April the Committee agreed on a of mass destruction. tive Directorate, or CTED, is expected to modalities paper outlining additional details release two reports to the CTC on gaps in for the review. As a first step, the working Key Recent Developments the use of advance passenger information, groups are required to develop work plans to 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee as well as to identify gaps in member states’ be submitted to the Committee by 12 June According to its annual report, the Commit- capacities to implement Council resolutions for approval. The Committee is expected to tee convened 12 informal consultations in 1373 and 1624 that may hinder their abili- approve these plans, including a schedule of 2014. At least 11 of the 31 new listings by the ties to stem the flow of foreign terrorist fight- outreach events, by 30 June. In June 2016, the 1267/1989 Committee since September 2014 ers. (Resolution 1373 of 28 September 2001 Committee will hold formal open meetings are related to the threat posed by foreign ter- obliges states to criminalise the financing of on the review with UN member states, inter- rorist fighters. At press time, two reports from terrorism and recruitment to terrorist groups. national organisations and civil society. The the Committee’s Analytical Support and Resolution 1624 of 14 September 2005 calls first draft of the report on the review should Sanctions Monitoring Team were expected upon member states to prohibit by law the be ready for the Committee’s consideration to be released including recommendations incitement to commit terrorist acts.) by 1 September 2016 and a final report sub- to improve the e!ectiveness of the sanctions mitted to the Council by 31 October 2016. regime and the work of the Committee. 1540 Committee Although not explicitly stated in the modali- The Ombudsperson, Kimberly Prost, who In a meeting on 25 February (the only for- ties paper, it is understood that the outcome is responsible for making recommendations mal 1540 Committee meeting so far this of the review process will be a new Council on requests for removing names from the year), Oyarzun outlined his five main priori- resolution endorsing the main findings. sanctions list, submitted her ninth report ties as chair: concluding the comprehensive to the Council on 2 February. Since 31 July review of the implementation of resolution Key Issues 2014, six new cases had been submitted to 1540 requested by resolution 1977, achiev- A key issue for the 1267/1989 Committee is the Ombudsperson, bringing the total num- ing universality in reporting by member states to address patterns of non-compliance with ber of petitions received since the o"ce was (19 states have yet to submit national imple- the sanctions regime by member states, either established to 61 as of 31 January. During the mentation reports), improving the e"cien- due to lack of will or capacity. reporting period, three individuals and one cy of matching o!ers of support with states An important issue is to ensure that there entity were delisted on her recommendation. requesting assistance, identifying regions is coherence between the Council’s subsid- On 12 February, the Council adopted that should be given particular attention and iary bodies in charge of assessing the imple- resolution 2199, targeting some of the sourc- increasing the visibility of the work and role mentation of relevant resolutions by member es of funding of two Al-Qaida a"liates, the of the Committee as an essential instrument states (such as CTED) and the provision of Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and of non-proliferation. technical assistance by bilateral and multilat- Al-Nusra Front. Given the evidence that vehi- On 30 January, Oyarzun submitted to the eral partners, such as the Counter-Terrorism cles departing from or going to areas held by Council the Committee’s programme of work Implementation Task Force (CTITF) and ISIS or Al-Nusra could be used to transfer for the period 1 February 2015 to 30 January the UN Counter-Terrorism Centre. economic resources for sale on international 2016. The Committee will continue to oper- A key issue for the 1540 Committee is the markets or to be bartered for arms, the res- ate a system of four working groups, focused 2016 comprehensive review. olution encourages neighbouring member on monitoring and national implementa- states to prevent and disrupt activity that tion (chaired by Chile), assistance (chaired

Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2199 heritage, ransom payments and external donations. S/RES/2161 Ombudsperson and the Monitoring Team for 30 months. S/RES/1977 (20 April 2011) decided that the 1540 Committee should conduct a review of the implementation of resolution 1540 before December 2016. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7319S/PV.7316 (19 November Sanctions Committee Documents S/2015/80 (2 February 2015) included the ninth report of the Ombudsperson. S/2014/923 (17 December 2014) was a report on the activities of the 1267/1989 Sanctions Committee in 2014. Security Council Letter S/2015/75 (30 January 2015) was from the chair of the 1540 Committee submitting its current programme of work to the Council.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Counter-Terrorism (con’t)

Council Dynamics Also, some Council members have stressed consensus about the importance of the Com- Counter-terrorism appears to be one of the in the past that the 1267/1989 Committee— mittee’s work. The preparations for the com- issues generating unanimous support among rather than the CTC whose scope is broad- prehensive review have so far progressed Council members, as well as high visibility er—should take the lead in tackling foreign smoothly, although there are some di!erenc- for Council actions. Most of the di!erences terrorist fighters. Some Council members are es among Council members in their empha- among Council members are related not so not very supportive of the promotion of trans- sis on priorities, with developing countries much to this particular topic but rather as to parency about the Committee’s work. attaching particular importance to the Com- its scope and potential for political misuse. In the 1540 Committee, there is general mittee’s role in facilitating assistance.

Peacebuilding

Expected Council Action Mohammed Ibn Chambas. On 23 April, meeting, held two days after a coup attempt, In June, the Council expects briefings by Skoog transmitted a report about his trip to the configuration issued a press statement Antonio de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil) and the Council. expressing full support for regional engage- Olof Skoog (Sweden), the former and cur- On 14 April, the PBC held a special ses- ment by the East African Community, the rent chairs of the Peacebuilding Commis- sion on Ebola. Skoog briefed on his trip, and AU and the International Conference of the sion (PBC), on the eighth annual report of a representative of the UN Development Great Lakes Region to resolve the crisis, as the PBC. Programme (UNDP) briefed about its Ebo- well as commending e!orts by the Secretary- That same day, an informal interactive dia- la recovery assessment conducted in Janu- General’s Special Envoy to the Great Lakes logue is expected involving Council members, ary. Following this session, Skoog attended Region, Said Djinnit, and the UN Electoral the six PBC country-configuration chairs and a high-level meeting hosted by the World Observation Mission in Burundi. ambassadors of PBC-agenda countries. Bank in Washington D.C. on 17 April, dur- No outcome is expected. ing which the presidents of Guinea, Liberia Central African Republic and Sierra Leone presented their respective The configuration chair, Ambassador Omar Key Recent Developments national Ebola recovery plans. The World Hilale (Morocco), visited the Central Afri- On 22 January, the Secretary-General Bank announced it would provide $650 mil- can Republic from 2 to 5 May and attended announced the formation of the seven- lion for Ebola recovery, in addition to ear- the start of the Bangui Forum on reconcili- person Advisory Group of Experts to con- lier pledges of debt relief. The World Health ation. During his four-day visit, he met with duct the first stage of the 2015 review of the Organization declared Liberia Ebola-free a range of interlocutors, including the tran- peacebuilding architecture. (This review was on 9 May. sitional president, Catherine Samba-Panza. requested in 2010 by Security Council reso- Among the issues raised was the funding gap lution 1947 and General Assembly resolu- Developments in Country-Specific for holding this year’s elections. At press time, tion 65/7.) The Advisory Group is expected Configurations the configuration was organising a high-level to submit a report based on five case studies Burundi event on 5 June with UNDP to raise aware- to the Council and the General Assembly by The configuration chair, Ambassador Paul ness about the issue. the end of June. That will start an intergov- Seger (Switzerland), visited Burundi from 31 ernmental process to review its analysis and March to 3 April. The visit focused on the Guinea recommendations. tensions and concerns about potential vio- The Guinea configuration issued a press Skoog travelled to West Africa from 5 to 10 lence over the possibility that President Pierre statement on 17 April appealing to all par- April, visiting Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone Nkurunziza would seek a third term. In his ties to exercise restraint following violence at and Senegal to assess the impact of Ebola meetings, including with the president, Seger demonstrations on 13 and 14 April. Protests on peacebuilding. The trip was also taken in stressed the need to avoid violence and to in Guinea were triggered by the announce- the context of PBC e!orts to incorporate a preserve national unity. He warned authori- ment that presidential elections would be greater regional perspective in peacebuilding ties that violence could lead to international held in October 2015 before local elections, and to strengthen cooperation with regional sanctions. which were further postponed to 2016. organisations. The visit included meetings Following the outbreak of protests in On 21 May, the Department of Political with the Secretary-General of the Mano Riv- late April against Nkurunziza’s candidacy, A!airs briefed the configuration on the elec- er Union, Saran Daraba Kaba, and the head the configuration held three meetings (29 toral needs assessment mission that visited of the UN O"ce for West Africa (UNOWA), April, 11 May and 15 May). After its 15 May Guinea from 11 to 22 April, reporting that

UN DOCUMENTS ON PEACEBUILDING Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/2 (14 January 2015) highlighted the upcoming 2015 review of the UN’s peacebuilding architecture. Security Council Letter S/2015/282 (23 April 2015) transmitted a report of the PBC chair on his visit to West Africa. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7359 (14 Peacebuilding Commission Document S/2015/174 (11 March 2015) was the PBC’s eighth annual report.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 Peacebuilding (con’t) the current environment is not conducive configuration, visited Liberia from 5 to 7 consistently ensure that configuration chairs for free and fair elections. UNOWA’s Cham- April, during which he met President Ellen brief Council experts ahead of mandate renew- bas also briefed, noting more positively the Johnson Sirleaf to discuss the country’s Ebo- als for missions in PBC-agenda countries or in resumption of dialogue between the presi- la recovery process. Configuration meetings crafting Council responses to crisis situations. dent and Guinea’s opposition leader. Con- were held on 29 April and 5 May. The con- figuration chair Ambassador Sylvie Lucas figuration reviewed peacebuilding priorities Council and Wider Dynamics (Luxembourg) updated members about her in Ebola recovery e!orts and the UN Mis- Amidst the current heavy demands on the planned visit to Guinea, scheduled from sion in Liberia (UNMIL) and received brief- Council, the PBC could be poised to reduce 31 May to 2 June, during which she would ings from UNMIL head Karin Landgren and the Council’s burden, particularly during assess tensions around the elections as well Liberia Minister of Justice Benedict Sannoh. mission exits or transitions. However, this as the impact of Ebola. relationship continues to be seen as falling Sierra Leone short, despite some improvements and posi- Guinea-Bissau The configuration, which is chaired by tive feedback by Council members of di!er- At a 16 April configuration meeting, mem- Canada, met on 21 May and received a brief- ent configuration chairs. In part, this is attrib- bers emphasised that countries must fulfil ing by UNDP on the economic outlook and uted to permanent members’ unwillingness their pledges made at the donors’ conference recovery planning in the region and Sierra to more fully engage strategically with the on 25 March in Brussels, which raised 1.2 Leone. At the meeting, the configuration also configuration chairs, including not allow- billion euros for Guinea-Bissau’s ten-year discussed a work plan for the coming year. ing their participation in consultations. The national development plan. Discussion also apparent low priority of the PBC for Coun- focused on a recent UN-led security sector Key Issues cil members was demonstrated at last year’s reform mission. Additionally, Patriota, who is A key issue is improving the relationship interactive dialogue with configuration chairs, the configuration chair, noted with concern between the PBC and the Council, includ- which few Council ambassadors attended. the Council’s emphasis on drug tra"cking in ing through more consistent engagement Malaysia, following in Rwanda’s footsteps, its recent resolution renewing the mandate of with the PBC and utilisation of the PBC as a has become convenor of the stock-taking ses- the UN Integrated Peacebuilding O"ce in tool for conflict prevention. A related issue is sions—informal quarterly meetings between Guinea-Bissau. He said that emphasis was no the quality of the PBC’s advice to the Council. Council members, country-configuration longer warranted and unfairly stigmatised the chairs and PBC-agenda countries to review country. Patriota visited Guinea-Bissau from Options relations between the two bodies. 19 to 21 April. The Council may hold the briefing and inter- There is no penholder on peacebuilding. active dialogue without additional action. Liberia While awaiting the findings of the peace- Skoog, who is also chair of the country building review, the Council could more

Peacekeeping

Expected Council Action since 2010, with force commanders brief- internally displaced sheltering in UN bases. The Council expects a briefing on UN peace- ing on operational challenges related to the Lt Gen Tesfamariam is expected to describe keeping from Under-Secretary-General for implementation of peacekeeping mandates. the e!orts by UNMISS’s military contin- Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous gents to maximise the impact of patrolling and force commanders Lieutenant-Gen- Background in rural areas to increase security, with a view eral Yohannes Gebremeskel Tesfamariam The heads of military components will cover to the eventual safe and voluntary return of (Ethiopia) of the UN Mission in South three di!erent areas during their briefing to internally displaced persons sheltered in UN Sudan (UNMISS), Major General Michael the Council. bases. Another issue that might be covered is Lollesgaard (Denmark) of the UN Multidi- the ongoing operational cooperation with the mensional Integrated Stabilization Mission Protection of Civilians South Sudanese police to ensure conditions in Mali (MINUSMA) and Major General Lt Gen Tesfamariam is expected to brief on for a safe return and the challenges posed Michael Finn (Ireland), who is the chief of the challenges faced by UNMISS in pro- by tensions on the ground between the army sta! of the UN Truce Supervision Organi- tecting civilians in South Sudan. OCHA and the police of South Sudan. Lt Gen Tesfa- zation (UNTSO). No outcome is expected estimated on 15 May that 1.5 million peo- mariam might also raise the challenges faced following the briefing. ple have been internally displaced in South by UNMISS in ensuring law and order in the These briefings have been held annually Sudan, with approximately 117,000 of the camps until a sustainable solution is found.

UN DOCUMENTS ON PEACEKEEPING Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7275

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Peacekeeping (con’t)

Lt Gen Tesfamariam might also brief the safety and security of peacekeepers. composition need to be reconsidered fol- Council on the impact of the recent viola- lowing the changed security situation in tions of the Status of Forces Agreement by Caveats and Performance the region. South Sudan in the implementation of the UNTSO military observers are attached to mission’s protection of civilians’ mandate. the peacekeeping forces in the Middle East, Options These violations have included episodes of including the UN Disengagement Observer Options for the Council include: sta! harassment, delays in equipment deliv- Force (UNDOF) in the Golan Heights and • taking advantage of the interactive for- ery and restrictions to humanitarian access. the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), mat of the meeting to get a better under- in addition to a presence in the Sinai Penin- standing of the operational challenges to Operating in an Asymmetric Environment sula. Of the 25 troop contributors to UNTSO, peacekeeping; Asymmetrical attacks in Mali, an issue the almost half now have caveats regarding the • agreeing to have relevant force command- Council is familiar with, will be the focus places where military experts can be deployed. ers brief the Council, together with the of Maj Gen Lollesgaard’s briefing. As of 30 Due to the spillover of the Syrian civil war heads of mission, as mission mandates April, 33 peacekeepers have been killed since into UNDOF’s area of operations, the mis- come up for renewal; and the establishment of MINUSMA in April sion has significantly altered how it carries • increasing the interaction between the 2013 as a result of hostile acts. out its mandate. UNDOF is a Syria-based Council and the Secretariat in order to As MINUSMA and international actors mission but as of September 2014 the major- ensure military options being considered (including NGOs) continue to be targeted ity of its peacekeepers redeployed to the Israe- by the Council are grounded in reality. by Al-Qaida a"liated terrorist groups, Maj li-controlled side of the ceasefire line due to Gen Lollesgaard is expected to cover the the security situation, except for a contin- Council Dynamics measures in place to enhance MINUSMA’s gent of Nepalese peacekeepers deployed to Council members have found this a par- equipment to counter asymmetrical attacks. Mt. Hermon on the Syrian side. Maj Gen ticularly useful briefing because of the sub- On 2 January, Council members received Michael Finn is expected to brief on the limi- stance of the topics discussed and the inter- a letter from the Secretary-General outlin- tations in terms of performance and flexibility action allowed by the format. The ability to ing some lessons learned following the re- that caveats by troop contributors impose on ask questions of the force commanders has hatting processes in Mali and the Central heads of military components when having allowed members to obtain pertinent infor- African Republic. The letter highlighted to react to changed security conditions on mation about operational challenges in the need to enhance the capabilities of AU the ground. peacekeeping missions. The success of this re-hatted contingents that were below UN format prompted then-Council member Aus- standards. Key Issues tralia to initiate a briefing on 20 November Maj Gen Lollesgaard is also expected Issues arising from the situations to be cov- by the heads of police components. Resolu- to explain to what extent the military per- ered include: tion 2185, adopted on the same day, stated sonnel deployed in Mali are involved in the • UNMISS’s capability and resources the Council’s intention to consider holding implementation of MINUSMA’s protec- to carry out its protection of civilians an annual meeting with heads of UN police tion of civilians’ mandate in comparison to mandate; components. the overwhelming focus on force protection • addressing the risks to MINUSMA and These meetings are an opportunity to tasks given increased insecurity in the north. the implementation of its mandate in a have substantial discussions to enhance the Ahead of the renewal of the mission’s man- context of asymmetric attacks and absence Council’s understanding of the Secretariat’s date in June, he may discuss how the signing of a commonly agreed political framework; military planning processes as well as provide of an agreement by only some of the parties • mitigating the e!ect of caveats in the feedback on di"culties faced in implement- a!ects the perception of the mission’s impar- implementation of Council mandates ing peacekeeping mandates. tiality and therefore has implications for the and whether UNSTO’s mandate and

International Criminal Tribunals

Expected Council Action and the International Criminal Tribunal for Hassan Bubacar Jallow as the Residual Mech- In June, the Security Council will hold its Rwanda (ICTR) are expected to brief the anism’s Prosecutor. semi-annual debate on the ad hoc interna- Council. ICTY President Theodor Meron The Informal Working Group on Inter- tional criminal tribunals. The Presidents and will also brief the Council as President of national Tribunals may meet with the Presi- Prosecutors of the International Criminal the Residual Mechanism for International dents and Prosecutors prior to their appear- Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) Criminal Tribunals, as will ICTR Prosecutor ance at the Council.

UN DOCUMENTS ON INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL TRIBUNALS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2194 and S/RES/2193 (18 December 2014) extended the judges’ and Prosecutors’ terms. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7332

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 International Criminal Tribunals (con’t)

Key Recent Developments 2015, with one trial and one appeal, in the met in December 2014 and may meet again The Residual Mechanism established in 2010, Mladić and Prlić et al. cases, set to be con- before this month’s Council debate. by resolution 1966, has been mandated to cluded in 2017. complete the work of the tribunals by assum- The ICTR has completed cases at the trial Key Issues ing responsibility for their essential functions level for all 93 accused that have been indict- The main issue is the continuing review by through two branches, the successor to ICTR ed. Only one case remains concerning the the Informal Working Group on International in Arusha and the successor to ICTY in the appeal of six individuals, Nyiramasuhuko et Tribunals of the completion strategies of the Hague. The two branches were inaugurated in al. (“Butare”), in which oral arguments were ICTY and ICTR and following the work of July 2012 and July 2013, respectively. Resolu- heard by the Appeals Chamber from 14 to 22 the Residual Mechanism. tion 1966 stipulated that all remaining work April. Judgment is expected to be delivered in A key issue is the relocation of persons by the tribunals should be completed no later August 2015. In February, the ICTR’s O"ce released or acquitted. than 31 December 2014, to prepare their clo- of the Prosecutor released a best-practices sure and to ensure a smooth transition to the manual on the referral of international crim- Council Dynamics Residual Mechanism. On 18 December 2014, inal cases to national jurisdictions for trial, The tribunals were expected to complete in light of the ongoing activity in both tribu- which documents the O"ce’s experience in their caseload by 31 December 2014, as set nals, the Council adopted resolutions 2193 securing the referral of ten genocide indict- out in resolution 1966 in 2010. Currently, the and 2194 which extended the terms of several ments to national jurisdictions for trial—two ICTY in particular expects completion as late judges of both tribunals and reappointed the to France and eight to Rwanda. as 2017, which has led to repeated criticism tribunals’ respective Prosecutors for one year, Meanwhile, the Residual Mechanism by Russia about its e!ectiveness. The most urging the two bodies to intensify their e!orts delivered its first appeal judgment on 18 recent resolutions adopted in December to complete their work. Russia abstained on December 2014 in the case of Augustin Ngira- 2014, extended judges’ terms if the request resolution 2193 on the ICTY. batware. The ICTR issued the trial judgment was for one year less but the extensions to Since the start of the year, the ICTY has on 21 February 2013, and Ngirabatware filed 2017 requested for eight ICTY judges and concluded proceedings against six individuals, an appeal challenging his convictions and the ICTY Prosecutor were granted only to bringing the total number of concluded pro- sentence. The Residual Mechanism a"rmed December 2015. As it did the previous year, ceedings to 147 of the 161 persons indicted. his convictions for direct and public incite- Russia abstained from the resolution extend- On 8 April, the Appeals Tribunal issued its ment to commit genocide and for instigating, ing ICTY judges’ terms, commenting that judgment in the case of Zdravko Tolimir, a aiding and abetting genocide, and sentenced the situation regarding the tribunal’s exit former assistant commander and chief of the Ngirabatware to 30 years of imprisonment. strategy had not improved and that costly sector for Intelligence and Security A!airs of The Residual Mechanism continues to face trial delays continued. Russia is also critical the main sta! of the Republika Srpska army, two long-standing challenges. The first is to of the ICTY’s jurisprudence, claiming that it and upheld his sentence of life imprison- ensure that nine people indicted by the ICTR, has not done justice on behalf of Serbian vic- ment for genocide, crimes against humanity but not yet arrested, are apprehended (the tims of the Yugoslav conflict. As no requests and war crimes committed in 1995 after the three most senior individuals are to be tried for extending judges’ terms are expected in fall of Srebrenica and Žepa. On 30 January, by the Residual Mechanism and the other six June, these di!erences should not have prac- in the largest-ever trial heard by the Tribu- by Rwanda). The second challenge involves tical e!ect until the end of the year when nal (in terms of the number of accused), the the relocation of individuals the ICTR has there may be further extension requests. Appeals Chamber issued its judgment in the acquitted or released, but who are unable or During the debate, Council members are Popović et al. case, concerning five senior afraid to return to their country of citizenship. likely to focus on the respective tribunals’ Bosnian Serbian military o"cials convicted Since 2011, the Council has called on mem- completion strategies, the handover of activi- of genocide and other crimes perpetrated by ber states to assist with their relocation. The ties to the Residual Mechanism (including the Bosnian Serb forces in July 1995, following number of acquitted persons still in Arusha process of transferring records and archives), the takeover of Srebrenica and Žepa. The was recently reduced to eight after Belgium the need to find a satisfactory solution to the Appeals Chamber a"rmed two sentences of agreed to accept one person. As of 1 January, relocation of persons released or acquitted by life imprisonment, one sentence of 35 years the Residual Mechanism took over the formal the ICTR and the need to ensure individuals imprisonment and one sentence of 13 years responsibility for relocation. indicted by the ICTR, but not yet arrested, imprisonment. One sentence of 19 years The Presidents and Prosecutors of the are apprehended. imprisonment was reduced to 18 years. Based ICTY and ICTR last briefed the Council on Chile is the penholder and chair of the on current forecasts, judgments in one trial 10 December 2014. The Informal Working Informal Working Group on International and two appeals are expected by the end of Group on International Tribunals also last Tribunals.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Notable Dates for June Ian Martin REPORT DUE REQUESTING Executive Director DOCUMENT Joanna Weschler Deputy Executive Director & 11 March Annual PBC report (S/2015/174) S/RES/1645 Director of Research S/RES/1646 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & 14 May SG report on UNOCA/LRA (Central Africa) (S/2015/339) S/PRST/2014/25 Senior Research Analyst

15 May SG report on UNOCI (Côte d’Ivoire) (S/2015/320) S/RES/2162 Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & Senior Research Analyst Mid May Residual Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals S/RES/1966 progress report (S/2015/340) Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & Mid May S/RES/1966 Victor Casanova Abos Research Analyst Mid May ICTR’s completion strategy report (S/2015/342) S/RES/1966 Charles Cater 27 May SG report on UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2173 Research Analyst

Dahlia Morched 28 May OPCW report on the implementation of resolution 2118 S/RES/2118 Research Analyst & (Syrian chemical weapons) Communications Coordinator

Paul Romita 8 June S/RES/2068 Research Analyst

9 June Final report of the 1929 Iran Panel of Experts S/RES/2159 Eran Sthoeger Research Analyst

11 June SG report on UNDOF (Golan Heights) S/RES/2192 Benjamin Villanti Research Analyst

11 June SG report on UNAMA (Afghanistan) S/RES/2210 Robbin VanNewkirk Publications Coordinator 12 June SG report on MINUSMA (Mali) S/RES/2164 Vladimir Sesar Research Associate 23 June SG report on the humanitarian situation in Syria S/RES/2139 Lindiwe Knutson Research Assistant

MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Maritza Tenerelli Administrative Assistant

30 June UNOCI (Côte d’Ivoire) S/RES/2162 Stevenson Swanson Editorial Consultant 30 June Authorisation for French forces to operate in Côte d’Ivoire S/RES/2162 Security Council Report is a non- 30 June MINUSMA (Mali) S/RES/2164 Governments of Angola, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, 30 June UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2173 Germany, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malaysia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, 30 June UNDOF (Golan Heights) S/RES/2192 Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and Uruguay, and Carnegie Corporation, and the 9 July 1929 Iran Panel of Experts (mandate expires in July but will S/RES/2159 John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur likely be renewed in June) Foundation.

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24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2015