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Table of Contents Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.....................................................................................................................................7 1.1 APPROACH.......................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 SUMMARY OF RESULTS ..................................................................................................................................... 8 2. RECOMMENDATIONS.....................................................................................................................................11 3. THE PROBLEM ..................................................................................................................................................17 3.1 POPULATION ..................................................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND MANAGEMENT ................................................................................... 17 3.3 THE LAND BALANCE ........................................................................................................................................ 19 3.4 LAND DEMAND VS. AVAILABILITY.................................................................................................................. 21 3.5 ROOTS AND RATIONALE FOR PROTECTION .................................................................................................... 24 3.6 THE QUANDARY: DEMAND FOR LAND AND DEMAND FOR RESOURCES........................................................ 30 3.6.1 Malawi’s Resource Base and the Decline in Forested Area.......................................................30 3.6.2 Consumption of Woody Resources: Sustainable Supply vs. Demand .......................................31 3.6.3 Potential Revenue from Official Income Generating Use of Protected Areas..........................35 3.7 AGRICULTURAL SCHEMES............................................................................................................................... 37 4. STUDY OVERVIEW ...........................................................................................................................................40 4.1 STUDY APPROACH AND REPORT ORGANIZATION.......................................................................................... 40 4.2 SELECTION OF PROTECTED AREAS FOR INTENSIVE STUDY ......................................................................... 42 4.3 SUMMARY OF METHODS ................................................................................................................................. 42 4.4 REPOSITORIES OF PLUS PRODUCTS............................................................................................................... 50 4.5 LEVEL II PROTECTED AREA DESCRIPTIONS .................................................................................................. 50 4.5.1 Mulanje Forest Reserve .....................................................................................................................51 4.5.2 Zomba-Malosa Forest Reserves .......................................................................................................51 4.5.3 Liwonde National Park .....................................................................................................................52 4.5.4 Dzalanyama Ranch and Forest Reserve.........................................................................................53 4.5.5 Vwaza Wildlife Reserve......................................................................................................................53 5. NATURE OF THE RES OURCE........................................................................................................................55 5.1 AGRICULTURAL SUITABILITY......................................................................................................................... 55 5.1.1 Agricultural Suitability Model Design...........................................................................................55 5.1.2 Agricultural Suitability Model Results ..........................................................................................62 5.2 EROSION HAZARD............................................................................................................................................. 68 5.2.1 Erosion Hazard Model Design.........................................................................................................68 5.2.2 Erosion Hazard Model Results.........................................................................................................78 5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL SUITABILITY....................................................................................................................... 86 5.3.1 Environmental Suitability Model Design ......................................................................................86 5.3.2 Environmental Suitability: Beyond the Focus on Erosion.........................................................86 5.3.3 Environmental Suitability Model Results......................................................................................87 6. PRESSURE ON THE RESOURCE...................................................................................................................93 6.1 POPULATION PRESSURE................................................................................................................................... 93 6.1.1 Direct Population Pressure Model Design....................................................................................96 6.1.2 Potential Population Pressure Model Design ..............................................................................96 6.2 ACCESS MODEL............................................................................................................................................... 97 6.2.1 Access Model Design..........................................................................................................................97 6.2.2 Potential Population Model Results...............................................................................................99 6.2.3 Access Model Results ...................................................................................................................... 106 6.2.4 Population Pressure and Access Combined............................................................................... 106 1 7. COMMUNITY-LEVEL RESOURCE UTILIZATION.................................................................................. 107 7.1 METHODOLOGY.............................................................................................................................................. 107 7.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PROTECTED AREA COMMUNITIES............................................ 110 7.2.1 Labor Availability ........................................................................................................................... 110 7.2.2 Land Availability............................................................................................................................. 113 7.2.3 Household Incomes and Poverty Estimates ................................................................................ 114 7.3 PROTECTED AREA RESOURCE UTILIZATION PATTERNS............................................................................. 124 7.4 THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF PROTECTED AREAS RESOURCES........................................................... 134 7.5 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT............................................................................................................................... 137 8. IMPACT ON THE RESOURCE..................................................................................................................... 139 8.1 LAND COVER MAPPING.................................................................................................................................. 139 8.1.1 Image Data Acquisition and Description.................................................................................... 139 8.1.2 Earlier Land Cover Mapping Using Satellite Images in Malawi........................................... 140 8.1.3 Image Processing............................................................................................................................. 141 8.1.4 Land Cover Mapping Results........................................................................................................ 145 8.2 LAND COVER CHANGE.................................................................................................................................... 147 8.2.1 Impact Model Design ...................................................................................................................... 147 8.2.2 Impact Model Results...................................................................................................................... 147 8.2.3 Mulanje Forest Reserve Impact Model Results .......................................................................... 155 8.2.4 Zomba-Malosa Forest Reserves Impact Model Results ............................................................ 157 8.2.5 Liwonde Impact Model Results ..................................................................................................... 159 8.2.6 Dzalanyama Forest Reserve
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