www.africa-confidential.com 6 April 2001 Vol 42 No 7 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL SOUTH AFRICA 2 UGANDA Rules of law Lawyers fear the government’s Ungracious winner draft legal practice bill could bring President Museveni’s crushing victory raises concerns about the their profession under state control return of personal rule through a council which would report to the Minister of Justice. ‘Losing is completely hypothetical. It will not happen,’ President told journalists in Kampala on the eve of the presidential election on 13 March. He did not lose and his opponent, Kizza Besigye, is asking the Supreme Court to annul the result because of rigging and intimidation by KENYA 3 Museveni’s campaign team. Besigye’s court action started on 2 April and may last a month. The Court is likely to hear much about the Museveni team’s rough tactics and may see video and audio evidence of Leave it to Sally abuses. Few believe that Besigye will win but reporting of the proceedings will further damage New civil service chief Sally Kosgey Museveni’s reputation as a progressive reformer. He abandoned his revolutionary Marxist views shortly wasted no time in sacking the after winning power in 1986. senior officials installed by her predecessor, Richard Leakey. The Most Ugandans had never before witnessed real elections. Museveni’s first serious challenger - a civil service is safely back in the retired colonel, formerly his personal physician and government minister - is, like the President, Ankole hands of the Kalenjin elite under from the east of the country. He stood as a reformer of the ruling National Resistance Movement, gaining Moi and Nicholas Biwott. strength from an alliance with Museveni’s opponent in the 1996 election, Paul Ssemogerere of the Democratic Party, whose main support is from Catholics in Buganda, in the south-west. In return for MALAWI 4 Ssemogerere’s support and that of the populist ex-mayor of Kampala, Nasser Ssegebaga, Besigye promised to hasten the return to multi-party politics. Brown bounces back In a hot contest, the opinion polls suggested that Museveni would get not much over the 50 per cent of the vote needed to avoid a run-off. Few believed that he would get more than 60 per cent, except his Brown Mpinganjira is more popular than ever after an unsuccessful campaign team, which insisted he would get 70 per cent. In the event, Museveni took 69.3 per cent, while prosecution for corruption. Leading Besigye trailed with just 27.8 per cent, far below what even his critics had predicted. the NDA coalition, he is now tipped as the strongest candidate against Election aftermath the ruling UDF. How genuine was the result? Obviously, as Museveni’s supporters claim, the opinion polls oversampled people in trading centres and urban areas, where he has most opponents. In a referendum last June, USA/ 5 electors were asked to choose between the Movement and multi-party politics; towns in traditional pro- Museveni areas voted strongly against the Movement. Museveni rightly claims that his strength is among Caution, lobbies at the peasantry, 90 per cent of Uganda’s people. work Besigye insists that the President won by widespread rigging, harassment and intimidation. In court he needs to prove not just that there were irregularities, which electoral observers admit, but that these Sudan policy touches two of the Bush administration’s core would have significantly affected the outcome. His loyal supporters admit that in a fair election, he would supporters: big oil and the religious probably have lost but with a bigger share of the vote. right. Church groups and African- The election showed a disturbing side of the Museveni regime, a favourite of successive British and American activists are leading the United States’ governments. Museveni reacted to Besigye’s challenge in a personal way, defensively, charge against Khartoum. looking intolerant and contemptuous of criticism. His intellectual confidence and willingness to argue with critics was one of Museveni’s strongest assets. It is a wasting asset. He turned to insiders and CONGO-BRAZZA 7 hardliners, particularly within the security forces, to ensure his victory. As Commander in Chief, he relied heavily on the army in the run-up to the poll. His special task force Settling Sassou to deal with election-related violence was led by the Army Commander, Major General Jeje Odongo, Four years after seizing power, working with Military Intelligence, the police and the internal security organisations. Museveni said the military leader Sassou Nguesso is police was not up to the job; his opponents argued that the soldiers were intimidating. In defiance of the is trying to cut a deal with some Electoral Commission, Museveni deployed his Presidential Protection Unit in western Rukungire, long pliable politicians who will agree to a Museveni stronghold, divided this time by the candidature of Besigye, a local man. a gradual transition to In one notorious incident, the PPU fired on a crowd of Besigye supporters, leaving one person dead. constitutional rule. Museveni kept them in the area on the grounds that his supporters were being intimidated, even though media reports suggested that the intimidation was of, not by, Besigye people. POINTERS 8 The army’s antics, some of which shocked Museveni’s own supporters, included the arrest in February of the youth advisor to Besigye’s Task Force, Maj. Okwiri Rabwoni, a member of parliament and brother Africa/Arms, Congo- of the Director of Military Intelligence, Lieutenant Col. Noble Mayombo. The arrest followed a violent K and UK/ confrontation at Entebbe International Airport. The circumstances remain unclear but Rabwoni was 6 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 7

finally released without charge and travelled to Britain, where he 2. An opposition coalition that is serious and determined but includes spoke against the government. disagreeable fringe elements that have no commitment to democracy and On election day there were many reports of rigging, ballot-box could turn violent. stuffing and other irregularities. The extent is still not known but the 3. Army and security forces split: a possible mutiny, inside Uganda or among returnees from Congo-Kinshasa, cannot be ruled out. offences seem to have been sanctioned at local level rather than from 4. A leadership on both sides with a history of using violence for political the centre. The worst areas were Rukingire, where foreign journalists ends: Museveni, the former guerrilla, has vowed to ‘crush’ his opponents or went to see the rigging, and the eastern district of Mbale. ‘blow them up’. His post-election crackdown could be grim. The opposition Museveni failed to treat Besigye as a credible political opponent and has soldiers, too. Besigye is a colonel, Maj. Rabwoni fought in Museveni’s demonised him. The opposition platform, accusing Museveni’s National Resistance Army, in the Rwandan People’s Army (as an aide to Movement of growing undemocratic, corrupt and riven by cronyism, Kagame) all the way to Kinshasa, and inside Sudan. had wide support even within the Movement itself: insiders said 5. Corruption has gone deep; many in the ruling circles are accustomed to privately they hoped Besigye’s challenge would shock the President using irregular means for personal wealth. into addressing these issues once and for all. However, the international community has no alternative to Museveni Museveni refused - at least in public - to recognise that Besigye had and Uganda has not yet shifted beyond the pale. Apart from the a point and repeatedly called him and his wife, Museveni’s former electoral lapses, it has a better human rights record than most of its lover, Winnie Byanyima, ‘traitors’. This abuse continued throughout neighbours, with an economy praised by the World Bank and healthy the campaign, doing little to suggest that Museveni tolerates political media, forthright in criticising the electoral process. When he was opposition, as he must if, as he has promised donors, he returns the campaigning, Museveni said he wanted five more years to build on his country to pluralist politics within five years. successes in such areas as infrastructure, the economy, education and Museveni’s stance did not soften in victory. He claimed there had health. been rigging by Besigye’s side and that he had secured 75 per cent of Just conceivably, Museveni’s bark will prove worse than his bite, he the vote. He labelled his opponent as part of the old order of will address the issues raised by Besigye and he will prepare not just Dada and Milton Obote, although Besigye joined Museveni’s guerrilla a political successor but a political process for holding the 2006 struggle in 1981 and was at one time the Movement’s chief ideologue. election under multi-party rules. In the worst case, he will refuse a Even more worryingly, Museveni announced that he would begin political opening and maintain his Movement after 2006, continuing filling political posts on the basis of regional support and would never to narrow its base and giving his more militant opponents little option allow Besigye in his government. This could have been a way of but to struggle. He could even use a pro-Movement parliament to encouraging voters to choose pro-Movement candidates in the coming amend the constitution, allowing him to stand for a further term. That parliamentary elections and came as a surprise from a man who has could be too much for the pliable donor governments to swallow, always wanted to restrict party activity on the grounds that the though; loans and grants make up more than half the budget. Movement is broad-based and all-inclusive. The statement suggests a further narrowing of the Movement’s SOUTH AFRICA political base. Since 1996, there has been almost nobody in government who did not share Museveni’s political views. If he follows through with his threat, the Movement will not even be regionally broad-based. Museveni has not softened since the poll. The security forces have Rules of law suggested that a spate of post-election violence – three bombs in and Lawyers claim the government wants to bring around Kampala and a big rebel attack on the western town of Kasese them under state control – were related to Besigye, rather than to the usual rebel groups. On 18 March, Mayombo refused Besigye permission to travel to South South African lawyers fear that the government’s draft Legal Practice Africa and an intelligence agent prevented him from boarding an SA Bill could bring the legal profession, including the Bar, under state Airlines plane at Entebbe. Besigye was given no formal reason for the control. The Bar is up in arms. The Chairman of its General Council, restriction (made without any legal order). Mayombo told journalists Jeremy Gauntlett, has claimed that the legislation will ‘destroy a that the security forces were investigating allegations that ‘some sinew of our constitutional democracy. It will send an unmistakable politicians’ were related to the terrorist bomb attacks, since blamed on message to those who invest in South Africa and who monitor closely an urban wing of the rebels of the Alliance of Democratic Forces. the quality and independence of its professions.’ The bill proposes to The truth appears bleaker. Museveni and his inner circle are regulate solicitors and barristers, through a council which would convinced that Besigye is backed by their former ally, Rwanda. In report to the minister of justice, who would select its key members. early March, Uganda declared Rwanda a ‘hostile nation’, apparently Senior judges are now appointed from the ranks of ageing barristers; in an attempt to prevent the Kigali government funding Besigye’s the fear is that the bill would undermine the Bar’s, and thus the campaign. Besigye’s trip to South Africa coincided with a visit by judiciary’s, independence. Rwandan President to President . Military Courts and lawyers have been little affected since democracy Intelligence believed they were going to meet. arrived in 1994. Old-guard judges who had strongly enforced Museveni’s behaviour so far – demonising the opposition, narrowing apartheid’s draconian legislation kept their jobs. The main innovation his political base and putting his trust in the army – bodes ill for was the creation of a new Constitutional Court. When it was first set conciliatory governance. The President says he needs an extra US$700 up, some lawyers grumbled that it was heavily stacked with African million over the next 1-3 years to modernise the security forces. The National Congress sympathisers, including its President, Arthur ingredients for crisis and conflict are: Chaskalson. However, the eleven-person Court has turned out to be 1. A fraudulent election which Museveni could have won but would not risk robust and sophisticated, capable of deciding against the government losing. If this continues, the parliamentary elections in May-June could produce – although it has rarely done so, since the government has mostly a quiescent, bought off parliament, unreflective of Uganda’s growing discontent. played by the rules.

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Until 1994, judges were quietly picked and promoted by the justice Bank and Fund, to clean up the public service. Moi’s own group – minister and the president. The new constitution set up a Judicial Nicholas K. Biwott, Kosgey and presidential aide Joshua Kulei – saw Service Commission of judges, lawyers and politicians, to select them as an externally-funded nuisance out to undermine the President’s judges in public hearings. Candidates have been grilled about their power-base in the name of efficiency. Leakey’s exit puts the civil past and the Commission soon made it clear that race had replaced service safely back in the hands of the Kalenjin power faction under Moi seniority and experience as key factors where promotion was concerned; and his grey eminence Biwott (AC Vol 41 No 18). Their agenda is advocates can make it to the Bench with only a few years’ experience headed not by the ‘ownership’ of economic reform but by the 2002 and there has been some muttering about lower standards. However elections and the Moi succession. that may be, there are many more black judges and two of the nine The dream team’s most vocal and effective members were dismissed provinces have black judge-presidents. Considering the huge racial without ceremony one day after Leakey: Martin Oduor Otieno disparities in education under apartheid, this is progress. The justice (Permanent Secretary, Finance), Titus Niakuni (Permanent Secretary, system is stretched by the crime wave and, as in many countries, an Communications), Mwanyengela Ngali (Permanent Secretary, Energy) exodus of state prosecutors to the private sector. and Kitili Mbathi (Investment Secretary, Finance). The declared aim of the draft bill was not to undermine judicial independence but to continue to open the profession to black people, Too much cleaning in line with the aim of Thabo Mbeki’s Presidency to create a loyal Leakey’s personal style upset the President’s people. He seldom black middle class. The bill is poorly drafted, though, and its praised Moi lavishly in public, as his younger brother Philip Leakey did promoter, the Minister of Justice, Penuell Mpapa Maduna has not when he was a minister in Moi’s cabinet between 1988 and 1992. And tapped the experience of the many good lawyers who fought apartheid. Richard Leakey’s team took the clean-up mandate too literally; they The most distinguished of those liberal lawyers is Sir Sidney worked long hours and did not know how to stop short of President Kentridge, QC, who recently compared the new draft with the Moi’s closest loyalists. apartheid government’s efforts to control the Bar through a central When the dream team was set up, in July 1999 (AC Vol 40 No 16), council with government-nominated members. ‘It is well understood the World Bank negotiated political protection for its members. It was that to remove control of the profession from the provincial Bar agreed that Leakey alone would consult Moi on the toughest political Councils and General Council of the Bar would have meant the end of decisions. That was unwise. When Leakey fell out of favour, the whole the independence of the profession,’ he said. ‘What was also well team was in peril. Their morale sank and at least one of them began understood was that the independence of the Bench was inextricably cultivating ties to Moi and Kosgey. Leakey’s enemies persuaded Moi linked with the independence of the Bar.’ either that Leakey was playing president or that he was secretly in league with the mainly Kikuyu opposition Democratic Party. Of European descent, the Leakeys are honorary Kikuyus; Richard’s father, KENYA Louis Leakey, was initiated into a Kikuyu age grade in the 1930s. Leakey’s relations with Moi were profoundly damaged by his suggestion that the Attorney General, Amos Wako, should intervene in Leave it to Sally the ABN Amro case (AC Vol 42 No 5). It was rumoured that Leakey supported the Mount Kenya Consortium in the Kenya Telekom The President’s bright woman takes over privatisation; the consortium is seen as a Kikuyu front. Other tiffs arose from the dream team over: President declared last month that women don’t 1. Retrenchment: as Leakey revamped the Efficiency Monitoring Unit reach the pinnacle of public life because their brains are too small. and began laying off ineffectual public servants, the inner circle began Shortly afterwards, he appointed Dr. Sally Kosgey as head of the civil to grumble that Kalenjins were being targeted. ‘Does it mean that only service. Formerly Permanent Secretary of Foreign Affairs, she is Kalenjins are inefficient?’ asked Moi. clever, quiet, diplomatic, self-assured, fiercely loyal to Moi and, like 2. Fiscal Audits: on international visits, Moi is followed by a vast him, a Kalenjin (Nandi). Nobody knows which quality most entourage of loyalists and press officers from the ruling Kenya African recommended her for the job. National Union. This opens an official smuggling route, with items In February in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, when African heads of acquired abroad classified as ‘presidential shopping’ and brought in as government met the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, it duty-free cars, building materials, textiles and electronics. That budget was agreed that ‘local ownership’ was essential for the success of item is perpetually overspent. When the Permanent Secretary at the economic reform. A few days later in , Moi met Bank Treasury, dream-teamer Oduor Otieno, sought to audit it, we hear that President James Wolfensohn and IMF Managing Director Horst Kosgey told Leakey it was demeaning to the office of the President. Köhler. They agreed that Kenya should speed up governance reforms Oduor Otieno left with Leakey. so that Fund and Bank loans can resume. Moi argued that, for his 3. Leakey failed to defend the government, locally and abroad, in an government to have a free hand in the matter, reforms should not be international outcry over its allocation of 60,000 hectares of prime tied to certain personalities being in office. Wolfensohn and Köhler public forest to its supporters and unnamed ‘squatters’ for farming – accepted that this would enhance ‘ownership’. with the 2002 elections in mind. Four weeks later, civil service chief Richard Leakey was forced to Kosgey’s main appointments after Leakey’s departure strengthen the resign and replaced by Kosgey (AC Vol 42 No 6). There was no love Moi-Biwott election team. S.K. Bundotich (Kalenjin) is the new lost between the two. Leakey had edged onto what Kosgey considered Financial Secretary at the Treasury, as in 1992 and 1997 the key to her and Moi’s turf; and she believed Leakey’s team was over-rated, election strategy. The new Treasury Secretary is a mild and pleasant since many public servants (herself included, with a Stanford PhD) World Bank official, Mwanghazi Mwachofi; when his contract expires were equally well qualified. in June, he may be replaced by Bundotich, who previously served in the Leakey and his dream team had been installed, at the insistence of Export Processing Zone, where Moi’s family has many interests. 3 6 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 7

The new Investment Secretary will handle the privatisation of government, are rallying to his pressure group, the National Democratic Telekom and other key companies including the Kenya Commercial Alliance. The NDA has backing from Malawian churches and the Bank. She is Esther Koimmet, Biwott’s daughter and an MBA with three Presbyterian synods and the Roman have all a reputation for efficiency. The Permanent Secretary at Foreign written pastoral letters criticising corruption and the government. Affairs, David Andere (Luhya), served Biwott as Permanent Secretary The NDA, focussing on transparency and accountability, is forging in the Energy Ministry. The new anti-drugs Czar, Joseph Kaguthi ties with opposition parties. Yet both of them, the MCP and the (Kikuyu), was dismissed from the Office of the President by Leakey Alliance for Democracy (Aford), are split. MCP leader Chakuamba in 1999; Moi says he wants to attract Kikuyu back to his KANU. and Aford leader Chakufwa Chihana have thrown their weight Kaguthi played a leading role in KANU’s abortive wooing of the behind Mpinganjira’s NDA, which was formed on 3 January. Kikuyu vote in 1997 and should work well with Wilfred M. Mwangi Chakuamba’s rival and deputy John Tembo disagrees, though. (also Murangia Kikuyu), the only Dream Team member who has been Tembo’s faction of the MCP, which includes Kate Kainja and Bester promoted, to Permanent Secretary for Energy – a ministry where Majoni (elected Second Deputy Speaker following Peter Kalose’s Biwott has always had influence, given his petroleum investments. promotion to Commerce and Industry), publicly oppose the NDA, What have the World Bank and the IMF to say about the strengthening thus shifting closer to the government, with which they are already of the old guard, whose priveleges they had sought to limit by the accused of being in cahoots. The rumour is that Tembo will soon be dream-team appointments? In Washington on 7 March, the Bank’s made second vice-president, a new post; Tembo’s son John Junior Vice-President for Africa, Calisto Madavo, and the IMF Director for was given a nice job at the end of March, as Second Secretary in Africa, Goodall C. Gondwe, spoke optimistically about Moi’s promise Malawi’s Paris Embassy, with no previous experience. to implement governance reform, this time. In Aford, Sam Kandodo Banda, who may challenge Chihana’s Madavo, who has talked privately with Moi and Biwott several leadership at the next convention, refused to stand for Mpinganjira’s times, was more precise. He said progress had been set back when the ovation when he re-entered parliament as an independent member. Kenya Anti-Corruption Authority was ruled by the courts to be Other members of Aford’s National Executive Committee keep clear unconstitutional: ‘the agency was extremely important in our anti- of Mpinganjira, because of his tainted reputation. corruption policy’. Should the government revive the KACA, it seems There are signs of government panic. The ruling party holds about the World Bank would be willing to play ball even after the dream 30 rallies around the country each weekend, whose sole purpose is team has vanished. All in the name of ownership. often to denounce Mpinganjira and his allies. The police have been heavy-handed, tear-gassing an NDA rally in the volatile constituency of Blantyre. James Makhumula, the former UDF Treasurer General MALAWI and a wealthy businessman, resigned from the UDF in February and is now a key NDA member; his money and straightforwardness give him great influence, especially in his Zomba stronghold. Other NDA Brown bounces back leaders are Mpinganjira’s wife, Lizzie (ex-Minister of Labour and Vocational Training), Peter Chupa (a Blantyre member of parliament) Corruption, a coup plot, a third term and a and Greshumu Naura (previously UDF MP for Phalombe). new opposition Mpinganjira boasts that six ministers covertly support him, a claim There’s nothing like a coup plot to distract attention from political backed up in part by sources who have attended private NDA meetings. troubles. It is widely believed in Blantyre that last week’s alleged People are afraid to name names at the moment. Two UDF MPs, putsch was not a coup plot at all. Revelations on 26 March that Sudi Bamani Zgambo (Kasungu North-West) and Nicholas Kachingwe Adaki Sulaimana was planning to topple the government were (Blantyre West), have been assaulted by supporters of their own party greeted with wry smiles. Sulaimana, a criminal rather than political for alleged NDA sympathies. The President’s henchman Dumbo animal, was gaoled on similar charges by Hastings Kamazu Banda’s Lemani has threatened to expel anyone working with the NDA and regime in 1993, pardoned by the incoming President Bakili Muluzi in said that the UDF’s National Intelligence Bureau, set up to spy on 1994 and enrolled in the governing party’s thuggish youth wing. party members, is monitoring two MPs and one minister from The army dismissed allegations about Sulaimana’s plot. Muluzi Mpinganjira’s Mulanje area – probably Patricia Kaliatia, Deputy carried on with his trip to the north, rather than rushing back to safety Minister of Health, who is thought to be close to Lizzie Mpinganjira. in Blantyre. Meanwhile, the leader of the formerly ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP), Gwanda Chakuamba, quickly claimed that Multi-million kwacha scam the arrests marked a government crackdown on the opposition and Mpinganjira says he holds evidence of institutional corruption in a said that he had intelligence reports that the government had cooked multi-million-kwacha scam three years ago at the Petroleum Control up the alleged plot because it was running scared of the opposition’s Commission and of rigging in the 1999 elections. The Anti-Corruption grand alliance. Bureau says it still has a case against Mpinganjira for his alleged Muluzi is losing his grip on the United Democratic Front (UDF) as involvement, as the responsible minister, for the missing millions dissent grows over his plans for a third term (AC Vol 42 No 7). Brown from the Education Ministry. Nobody knows when the investigation Mpinganjira, his former ally and now his rival, has bounced back, will be completed. Even supporters of the Bureau, including Britain more popular than ever after facing an unsuccessful prosecution for (whose Department for International Development has a representaive corruption. Mpinganjira was at the heart of Muluzi’s team until he was in the ACB), have publicly criticised its slowness and failure to secure sacked in November, after being named in a parliamentary report convictions. The Director for Public Prosecutions is appealing against detailing embezzlement of funds at the Ministry of Education, while the acquittal of Mpinganjira, who says he was not involved in last he was Minister there. His was acquitted in February after a botched year’s sleaze cases and argues they were manufactured by his political corruption trial and claims he is being witch-hunted. Malawians, enemies. Piles of cases and briefing papers on corruption are yet to see weary of grinding poverty and blatant corruption under Muluzi’s the light of day. 4 6 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 7

The prospect of a third term for Muluzi plays into Mpinganjira’s hands, by splitting the President’s party and cabinet. Ministers Death knocks twice opposed to a third term include Vice-President Justin Malewezi, Clement Stambuli (Information), George Ntafu (Education) and In one week, Sudan has lost two leaders, one much loved and respected and one widely hated and feared. The contrast could not be Aleke Banda (Health). Those for a third term include the inner circle greater between Yousif Kuwa Mekki, Governor of the liberated of Patrick Mbewe (Local Government), Davis Kapito (Regional areas of the , and Ibrahim Shams el Din, one of the Governor for the South), Katenga Kaunda (UDF Secretary General) National Islamic Front hardcore since the days of its coup d’état in and Lemani (Presidential Affairs). Malawi’s regional politics have June 1989. Yet both were military men. awarded Mpinganjira’s NDA a stronghold in the south; through its Yousif Kuwa, who died in Britain after a long battle against bone alliance with the MCP, it is gaining ground in the centre. The aim is cancer on 31 March, was a committed school-teacher who joined the to present a united front, like Zambia’s Movement for Multi-Party Sudan People’s Liberation Army in the mid-1980s as government-led Democracy. ‘We’re not going the Zambia way!’ MPs shouted during abuses against the Nuba peoples spread. He rose to become an informal debate in the last parliamentary sitting. Commander of the Nuba region, a position that often put him at loggerheads with the SPLA boss, Colonel de Mabior. Mpinganjira knows his weaknesses: he is seen as a tub-thumping Yousif reflected Nuba fears of being crushed between north and south populist uninterested in reform. He wants to attract the professionals and the Nuba attachment to local autonomy was not always welcomed - lawyers, academics, civil servants, managers - alienated by Malawi’s by other SPLA commanders. He was probably the only SPLA senior political rough and tumble. So he does not admit any presidential commander to earn plaudits from human rights activists. ambitions but says he wants to open up the political system, moving Yousif, a Muslim, and his colleagues worked hard to develop from populism to a visionary leadership based on issues. traditional tolerance of diversity: most Nuba are Muslim, many are Many Malawians admit in private that the NDA offers the most Christian and traditional beliefs also thrive. It is routine to find two credible alternative to a Muluzi third term, yet Mpinganjira is widely or three faiths in one family, which is one reason the NIF declared distrusted. His critics - they may one day challenge his leadership - are Jihad in the Mountains in 1991 and has burned mosques and churches alike ever since (not to mention their congregations). biding their time, reluctant to break cover until he passes his first test: His death will see the NIF redouble its efforts to divide Nuba to win over the technocrats, bureaucrats and other professionals whom politicians and people and hive off yet another faction to strengthen he would need if he were to form a ruling team. its position in an area adjoining the oil regions. Meanwhile, Yousif Kuwa’s legacy includes an unfinished appeal to United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan for the UN to honour its pledge, still USA/SUDAN unfulfilled, to take food to the hungry in the Mountains. Poignantly, the Representative of the UN World Food Programme in Khartoum, Masood Hyder, had only two days earlier in London appealed for Caution, lobbies at work food for three million people threatened by starvation in Sudan. Not far from the Nuba Mountains in the oil-fields, Col. Ibrahim Oil, religion and human rights – a powerful Shams el Din, deputy Defence Minister, died in an aeroplane crash on mixture for Bush’s new government to digest 4 April at Adar Yale. He had been pensioned off from the army under President Ja’afar Nimeiri but was reinstated during the transitional The debate on Washington’s Sudan policy touches two of the year after Nimeiri’s overthrow, under Lieutenant General Abdel Republican government’s core constituencies, big oil and the religious Rahman Suwar el Dahab (who later became head of Al Da’awa al right. Their countervailing pressures may delay a radical shift in Islamiya - Islamic Call). policy but Sudan has an unexpectedly high profile in the early months Col. Ibrahim was not popular in the army; many soldiers have not of George W. Bush’s presidency. His Secretary of State, General forgiven him for the execution of 28 officers and an unknown number (Retired) Colin Powell, told the House of Representatives International of non-commissioned officers in April 1990. He was also held responsible for the execution in 1989 of student Majdi Mahjoub Relations Committee that there was ‘perhaps no greater tragedy on the simply for possessing foreign currency. He was also in Juba during face of the earth today’ than the war in Sudan. The following week, the appalling atrocities of 1992 and was the officer widely blamed for an article in the Sudanese daily El Rai el Aam called Powell ‘the black ordering the deaths of Upper Nile ministers Chuoc Dekier and Louis Jewish general’ and argued that if the USA proposed a Jewish Keah Madut (AC Vol 42 No 6) this year. After National Democratic Ambassador (‘You know them by their names’) Khartoum should Alliance forces briefly took Kassala last year, Ibrahim went to the refuse to accept them. The billing contact on the newspaper’s website Eastern region capital to reestablish control. Many southern residents is Fatih Erwa, Sudan’s United Nations Ambassador, who headed the of the town were then killed. Sudanese side of ‘Operation Moses’ which secretly moved Ethiopian Fourteen other officers died, including Lt. Gen. Amir Gassim Jews via Sudan to Israel in the early 1980s and whom Washington Mussa, Major Gen. Yasin Arabi (Military Intelligence head) and Brigadier Ahmed Yousif Mustafa, People’s Defence Forces deputy discreetly turned down as Sudanese Ambassador a decade later. recruitment chief. The crew, reportedly Iraqi, apparently survived: Church groups, lawmakers and human rights activists all clamour many wondered why Iraqis would fly a military plane in the oilfields. for tougher action against Khartoum’s National Islamic Front government. Lobbyists range from right-wing Christian fundamentalists through mainstream churches, African-Americans Oil companies object to sanctions anywhere, on principle, and are and others angered by slavery and other human rights abuses, and always interested in new sources of hydrocarbons. They worry about exiled Sudanese activists. The oil majors hold their fire, leaving it to the existing sanctions on Libya and Iraq but accept that operating in retired diplomats and other foreign policy professionals to suggest a Sudan at the moment would be a public relations disaster. One US oil new approach, amid speculation about Sudan’s oil reserves (AC Vol industry source said that if Sudan’s reserves were as big as Khartoum 42 No 6). One energy report claims that the country has the biggest claims, then it would be foolish not to bring in the widest range of reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia and Russia, to which one oil companies and technology to exploit it. He claimed that the ‘fringe industry source responded: ‘More hype, less data.’ companies’ – meaning Canada’s Talisman Energy and China National

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Petroleum Corporation (via Petrochina) – would be unable to help dialogue at the Holocaust Museum: the Holocaust Committee had not Sudan maximise its oil development. But he insisted that no major US long before taken the unprecedented step of describing Khartoum’s oil company would get involved without major political change in slaughter of civilians as tending towards genocide. Khartoum first but ‘ . . .it may be that the US can encourage that Young and other anti-NIF specialists, including Roger Winter, change’. Bush has shown no interest in the campaign to tighten the US Director of the US Committee for Refugees and Eric Reeves, a Smith trade embargo on Sudan and enforce the law that could bar foreign College Professor who lobbies tirelessly against the oil companies companies engaged in Sudan’s oil industry, such as the China National working in Sudan’s war zones, stressed that Washington should not Petroleum Corporation and Canada’s Talisman, from raising funds in exchange ambassadors with Khartoum lest it be interpreted as granting US capital markets. legitimacy to the regime. However, an exchange of ambassadors was The US government hopes to buy decision-time by spending the a key element in a policy paper from CSIS in late February, chaired by US$10 million approved by Congress last year to build up civil society former Clinton advisor Stephen Morrison and Francis Mading in the opposition-controlled South. It has also decided to resume Deng, a Sudanese academic and once ex-President Ja’afar Nimeiri’s bilateral talks with Khartoum on terrorism and slowly to re-staff the junior Foreign Minister. They argued that rising oil production in the US Embassy but not yet to exchange ambassadors. The appointment south has irrevocably shifted the military balance in the NIF’s favour, of a ‘special envoy’ for Sudan is a hot topic. The post was created by so the USA should try to end the war with a ‘One Sudan, Two Systems,’ Congress under President Bill Clinton. Those mentioned as Harry formula, preserving a single Sudan with two self-governing regions. Johnston’s potential successor include ex-President (Democrat) To achieve this, goes the argument, Washington should engage Jimmy Carter, former United Nations Ambassador Richard Khartoum diplomatically – provided certain humanitarian conditions Holbrooke, former Senator Sam Nunn and former Republican are met – by appointing both an ambassador and a special envoy to Congressman Tom Campbell. coordinate US policy with Britain, Norway and Sudan’s neighbours as an ‘international nucleus’ for serious peace talks. Kansteiner was Arguments over engagement among the 52 members of the task force responsible for this proposal, Those demanding a tougher line on the NIF disapprove of Carter, who as was a former US ambassador to Sudan, Timothy Carney, who has condemned Washington’s 1998 bombing of El Shifa factory (AC Vol often met NIF officials in Khartoum over the past year. The new US 39 No 17) and opposed the naming of Sudan as a ‘terrorist state’. government wants to see if it can get anywhere on bilateral issues, Holbrooke is seen as a loose cannon. Campbell lacks the necessary starting with terrorism. One argument for establishing embassy staff stature. Nunn, Chairman of the Center for Strategic and International in Sudan, without an ambassador, is to rebuild intelligence capacity. Studies, is the activists’ choice – an interesting one since CSIS Although there is agreement on the importance of appointing a recently produced a controversial report which many activists strongly special envoy, the activists slam the CSIS report, arguing that its criticised. Before making an appointment Bush’s staff need better recommendations amount to ‘appeasement’. ‘The NIF is the key information and more of their own policy-making officials in place. obstacle to peace in Sudan,’ said Winter. ‘It is an extremist government Walter Kansteiner III, nominated as Assistant Secretary of State for and there is no reason to believe in (its) good faith.’ The hard-liners African Affairs, can make no decisions until he has been confirmed by want Washington to lead international pressure on the NIF. They note the Senate. When the Congressional Africa Subcommittee met to that Sudan’s human rights situation has deteriorated sharply since discuss Sudan policy on 28 March, the government, not wishing to European powers launched their own ‘constructive engagement’ policy. show its hand, offered no testimony – although the inter-agency Northern Sudanese oppositionists are particularly outraged that the foreign-policy ‘principals’ had quietly reviewed the situation the CSIS formula appears to leave the NIF in power in perpetuity. They previous day, indicating the importance currently given to Sudan. also observe that the north-south relationship would remain as unequal The latest recruit to the anti-NIF campaign is Dick Armey, the as ever. Washington is for now not joining in this debate. Constructive House majority leader, who usually has little to say about foreign engagement and critical dialogue have won Euro-governments welcome policy. On 27 March, he held a joint press conference with two business deals, blocking US interests, as they have also in Libya and congressmen long interested in Sudan, Frank Wolf, a Republican, Iran. Nevertheless, US commercial interests seem little focussed on and the Democrat Donald Payne of the Congressional Black Caucus. Sudan; telecommunications firms display more zeal than oil giants. They called for tougher measures and the urgent appointment of a special envoy. ‘The United States will not tolerate this kind of No through road suffering and human affliction,’ said Armey, who plans to meet Bush Clinton’s administration offered a ‘roadmap’ to Khartoum during last this week on Sudan, with other hardliners. year’s Organisation of African Unity summit in Lomé, Togo. It told The Africa Subcommittee’s meeting on 28 March overflowed the Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismail (‘Mr. Smile’) that it wanted room and encouraged the activists, as the eleven congressmen present agreed, sequenced, reciprocal steps on four main issues: terrorism, spoke out strongly against the NIF and the oil companies content to humanitarian issues, human rights and the civil war. Many details work with it. The star witness, Michael Young of the quasi- were, from the NIF’s point of view, fanciful – major autonomy in the governmental US Commission on International Religious Freedom, south, referendums, even genuine elections. Khartoum declined. pointed out that Khartoum’s war against the Nuba and southern Those interested in Sudan include two African-American clergymen populations has grown fiercer over the past year. He called for with reputations that need rebuilding – Reverends Jesse Jackson and increased US aid to them and the political opposition, for tightening Al Sharpton. One of Khartoum’s supporters among African-American economic sanctions by a ban on access to capital markets and for activists – Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam – has had little to denying soft-drink producers such as Coca-Cola licences to import say publicly on the issue. But Jackson and Sharpton are, separately, gum arabic from Sudan. He also urged a formal review of whether the planning trips to southern Sudan in coming weeks. ‘This has the Sudan government’s activities amounted to ‘genocide’ under the possibility of becoming a new South Africa,’ said one staffer for a Genocide Convention. This could have diplomatic and even military black congressman, who noted that sanctions against Pretoria were implications. Improbably, CSIS had launched its report calling for enacted over ex-President ’s veto some 15 years ago. 6 6 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 7

running short of funds and of outside support and may be ready CONGO- to negotiate with the President or his agents on terms for their return. , who was President until 1997, was overthrown after sending his troops to fire on Sassou-Nguesso’s Settling Sassou home. Lissouba is also from the south but now lives precariously The President wants a peace process – on in London. his own terms , Lissouba’s Prime Minister at the time of Sassou’s coup, has left Mali under a load of debt and gone to President Denis Sassou-Nguesso knows a lot about the national to negotiate directly with President Bongo. His party, the conferences and conventions that are supposed to precede Mouvement Congolais pour la Démocratie et le Développement democracy. The last one in his country, in 1992, threw him into Intégral (MCDDI) , represents the populous Pool region. the wilderness, from which he returned five years later at huge expense in blood and money. However, he cannot get aid or Moderates in exile international acceptance without winning some sort of Ex-Premier David Charles Ganao is in Libreville, Gabon. He legitimacy (AC Vol 42 No 16). So he has moved cautiously leads the Union des Forces Démocratiques whose support-base is towards the ‘National Convention’ whose first meeting is due among the Bateke of Djambala. Ganao is regarded as a moderate. to end in mid-April. Other moderate outsiders now living in exile include Jean Itadi The patron and financier of Congo-Brazzaville’s and Paul Kaya. reconciliation process and official mediator among the parties General Jacques-Joachim Yhombi-Opango, a former President, is the doyen of Francophone African heads of state, President has left Abidjan for Cotonou, Benin, where he is negotiating with of Gabon. As Sassou-Nguesso’s son-in-law, he Sassou’s representatives. He is seen as leader of the Kouyou of is a safe choice. An uneasy peace has been brought about by a Owando, in the north. Two of Lissouba’s former ministers are ceasefire, signed in 1999, between Sassou’s own Cobra militias influential: Gen. Philippe Bikintinka, formerly Minister of the and those of various opposition groups and parties. The ceasefire Interior and a cousin of Kolélas, and Gen. Marcel Yves Ibala, was followed by a ‘Non-Exclusive National Dialogue’, from formerly Minister of Security and a cousin of Lissouba. which the main opposition leaders were excluded, since they Jean-Michel Bokamba Yangouma, once led Sassou’s single have mostly been convicted by Sassou’s courts of various party, the former Parti Congolais du Travail. Last July, influenced forms of theft and embezzlement. by Gabon’s Foreign Minister Jean Ping, he formed the Front Under President Bongo’s guidance, a time-table has been Patriotique pour le Dialogue et la Réconciliation Nationale; from drawn up. Consultations, orchestrated by Sassou and Bongo, Gabon he is trying to bring together Sassou’s main opponents in began on 17 March. The National Convention is to close on 13 Paris, around an arrangement that would put Sassou back in office April, having produced an agreement on peace and for five years – provided he reduced his family’s influence and reconstruction, for approval by Sassou’s government. The next shared jobs and profits with other groups. planned stage is publication of a draft constitution and a Former prime ministers who may be interested in a deal include timetable for elections, under a transitional government picked André Milongo, Ange Poungui and Stéphane Bongou Nouarra. from the 550 delegates to the Convention; it will replace the The former Minister of the Economy and Finance, Norbert existing Conseil National de Transition, whose Chairman is Nguina Moungounga-Nkombo, was a pillar of Lissouba’s , a former supporter of Sassou’s ousted regime, as uncle of Claudine Mambonzo Munari, who was predecessor, Pascal Lissouba. both head of Lissouba’s office and his companion. Moungounga- Nkombo has no confidence in Bongo, and suspects France of Approaching democracy, cautiously doing a deal with Sassou; with Modeste Boukadia, he has Sassou’s cautious approach to democratic forms, in a country repeatedly appealed to the United Nations and the European which votes habitually on tribal lines, is easily explained. He Union to help normalise affairs in Congo. Lissouba shares is a military man, an M’Bochi from Edu in the north, where he their wish but not their hope that any result will follow. has a ‘mystical headquarters’ in his mother’s village of Oyo in the Cuvette district. He could muster 10-15 per cent of the national vote. Two-thirds of Congo-B’s people live in the Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at south. In an open election, the largest single share of the vote 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. would go to Lissouba, the second-largest share to another Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. southerner, Bernard Kolélas. Nevertheless, a government Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. formed by either would, as previously, be violently opposed Administration: Clare Tauben. not only by the northern-led army but also by various informal Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa but no less deadly militias. It is not clear what ‘national Confidential in advance: reconciliation’ means here but Sassou-Nguesso wants to go Institutions: Africa £289 - UK/Europe £310 - USA $780 - ROW £404 Corporates: Africa £354 - UK/Europe £373 - USA $864 - ROW £466 through the form anyway. Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £83 or USA $129 The main leaders of the opposition factions are accused or All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept have been convicted in the President’s courts of serious American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. economic crimes and face arrest if they go home to attend the Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 ‘national dialogue’. Several of them, exiled in Paris (AC Vol Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. 41 No 25), Abidjan, London, Ouagadougou or Cotonou, are ISSN 0044-6483

7 6 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 7

citizen, who is accused in his own country of alleged plotters. Pointers having negotiated the sale of Iranian arms to Le Soir of Brussels blames the plotters’ murder Laurent Kabila’s government in Congo- on the ‘French casino mafia’, wanting to get rid of Kinshasa, in exchange for minerals, including Kabila and set up in Kinshasa. This rumour is AFRICA/ARMS uranium 235. Monsieur may be safer in Iran, new, while those about the mercenaries have hung which has no extradition treaty with France or around for months. Serious intrigue specialists Belgium. On top of this, he has since 1999 held a assume it is a diversion, to hide something still Dirty deals Côte d’Ivoire diplomatic passport. more bizarre. A Belgian arms trader, Jacques-Germain CONGO-KINSHASA UK/FRANCE Monsieur, is the new star in the French judicial inquiry into France’s former state oil company, Elf Aquitaine (now privatised and part of Plots galore Entente partiale TotalFinaElf). Significantly, his revelations concern very recent events compared to the 1992 Strange tales surround Laurent Kabila’s murder The latest episode in the convergence of Africa origins of the Angolagate saga (AC Vol 42 No 3). (AC Vol 42 No 6). The main witness, Emile policy between France and Britain – a Whitehall- The court has a memorandum by him claiming Mota, then head of economics in Kabila’s office, sponsored conference of officials, academics and that Elf was directly involved in his deals in was arrested in Lubumbashi while trying to escape journalists from both countries on 2 April – showed Congo-Brazzaville and . It claims that, into Zambia. He has been in Makala gaol in outstanding differences between the two in West on 20 February 2000, Monsieur’s company, Kinshasa since mid-March, on one meal a day, not and Central Africa. Discussion grew animated Matimco Limited (registered in Mauritius in 1998) allowed to wash or to see his wife. A fellow- when British and French officials were asked if proposed to deliver military equipment to Angola, prisoner is said to be Colonel Eddy Kapend, their views on Presidents Charles Taylor’s and and that Jack Sigolet, President of Elf’s bankers, Kabila’s aide-de-camp, supposed killer of Rachidi Blaise Compaoré’s support for the Revolutionary the French Intercontinental Bank for Africa Rasekera, supposed killer of Kabila. Rachidi’s United Front had indeed converged. (FIBA), promised his team’s ‘best efforts’ to see family fled to Brazzaville within hours of President A British official gamely insisted that London that Matimco received money owed by Congo-B Kabila’s murder. and Paris were agreed and had been before the ‘St. and to open further markets there and in and Angola. There has been no post mortem or ballistic Malo convergence’. The proof was that both The Belgian daily Le Soir reports on a memo tests. The committee of inquiry consists of governments had agreed at the United Nations from Monsieur about a meeting on 9 December squabbling factions, Congolese, Angolan, Security Council to sanctions against Taylor, if he 1998, in Geneva. Those present were Monsieur, Namibian and Zimbabwean officers. Kapend’s didn’t close the diamond smuggling networks with an associate named Jean-Claude Uthurry- defenders, mainly Angolan, think he became the within two months. French officials looked blankly Borde; Pierre-Yves Gilleron, former head of the target in a plot to keep power out of the hands of at each other until an academic intervened to French counter-espionnage outfit, the Direction the Lunda and the Copperbelt Lubakat, in favour explain that since Côte d’Ivoire – formerly the de la Surveillance du Territoire, and active in of the North Katanga Lubakat, one of whom is the pride of the Pré carré – was now threatened by the President François Mitterrand’s Africa Section Interior Minister, Gaëtan Kakudji. Taylor-Compaoré alliance, assessments in Paris at the Elysée Palace; and Yves-Michel Deloche, It is alleged that, in Europe in late 2000, Kapend had become more complex. founder of Jet Finances Consultants, a Swiss firm met a former captain of ’s Meanwhile, French policymakers have been that rented out aircraft to, among others, Elf. Division Spéciale Présidentielle (DSP), Aimé debating intervention in Guinea-Conakry’s civil The meeting was to sort out some US$36 million Atenbina, and the President of the Société Minière war, also fuelled by Taylor and the RUF. Under of unpaid bills for two Mi-24 helicopters and three du Congo (Somico), Philémon Naluwindja; they St. Malo, French intervention in Guinea would be Mi-8s, ordered by former Congo-B President discussed Kabila’s decision to nationalise a the logical corollary of British intervention in Pascal Lissouba but captured by the Cobra Canadian-held gold concession in July 1998. Sierra Leone. French Prime Minister Lionel militiamen of Lissouba’s successor, Denis Sassou- Atenbina and Naluwindja were identified only by Jospin sat on this idea immediately he found out. Nguesso. The creditors, Monsieur and Andrej their DNA, after they were burned to death in a car It flies against his non-ingérence (non- Izdebski of a firm called Joy Slovakia, alleged near Lyon, France, on 20 December. Several intervention) doctrine, a year before his expected that Sassou’s Interior Minister, Pierre Oba, was Belgian papers have claimed that Atenbina was presidential bid. Optimists say French and British willing to pay $5 mn. in full and final settlement. plotting to murder Kabila, in league with the policies are gradually moving towards each other Sigolet accepted and guaranteed payment. former head of the DSP, Mobutu’s nephew General to meet in the centre. In February 1999, $4 mn. was paid. With the Nzimbi Ngbale Longo wa Bassa, and with the Taylor’s continuing alliance with Elysée final million outstanding, Monsieur wrote to ex-head of the Civil Guard, General Kpama favourite Compaoré and Libyan leader Colonel Sigolet and to André Tarallo, Elf’s then Finance Baramoto. The operation was to have been Moammar el Gadaffi makes French opposition Director, threatening that if he did not get his financed by the sale in Japan of 300 tonnes of to tough sanctions understandable: not only does money, he could release damaging documents – columbo-tantalite. France play along with Gadaffi’s orders for arms and ammunition for Lissouba’s The Belgian paper La Libre Belgique claims project but it is hoping for several massive oil and government, some of them signed JS (as in Jacques that the killing was to be done by a British infrastructure projects, including the sale of Sigolet); instructions to FIBA for payment; details security firm, paid off with a petroleum concession military hardware and several Airbus jets. A of payments for President Omar Bongo’s election off Moanda, on Congo-K’s narrow strip of Atlantic Libyan delegation was expected in Paris this week. campaign; and papers about a financial link to coastline between Congo-Brazzaville and Equally, President Jacques Chirac questions Sonangol, Angola’s state oil company, with details Angola’s Cabinda enclave, once a new civilian- Britain’s acceptance of the intervention in Congo- of its account at the Crédit Commercial de France. led government had taken over. It says the Kinshasa by the forces of Uganda’s President Monsieur has been under judicial supervision conspirators, based in Congo-B, had allies in the Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda’s President Paul in France since 1999. Now, according to Le Soir, army there. Angola, too, knew about it, imposing Kagame. And he told UK Premier Tony Blair so the French Defence Ministry has asked for an the condition that the new should not at length when they discussed Africa at Cahors on international arrest warrant. Monsieur is unlikely be from the Bakongo, a people said to support the 9 February. There is still plenty of room in the to appear, since he is detained in Iran, where he is rebels in Cabinda and Pascal Lissouba, Congo- centre: the Cahors agreement commits both alleged to have sold American military equipment B’s deposed President. La Libre Belgique offers countries to ‘intensify joint efforts to promote covered by fake Belgian documents. Tehran has no name for the alleged British mercenaries and lasting peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo refused Belgian diplomats access to their fellow- no motive either for the plot or for the killing of the and Sierra Leone.’ 8