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Afghanistan: the Prospects for a Real Peace
Afghanistan: The Prospects for a Real Peace By Anthony H. Cordesman With the assistance of Grace Hwang E-Book Version: July 7, 2020 Please provide comments to [email protected] Photo: BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP via Getty Images Cordesman: Afghan Prospects for Peace July 7, 2020 2 Afghanistan: The Prospects for a Real Peace Anthony H. Cordesman Afghanistan is sometimes referred to as the “graveyard of empires.” In practice, it has been the “graveyard of Afghans” – a nation where outside powers have always found it more costly to remain in Afghanistan than their presence there was worth. Russia – like so many of Afghanistan’s past conquerors – has survived and has prospered from leaving. The United States might also follow suit, as it has never faced a serious strain from its role in Afghanistan and can leave regardless of the success or failure of its current efforts to leave as part of a negotiated peace deal. It is the Afghans that face the risks from any peace process and the costs of any failure to create peace that actually brings stability and security. They have now been in a state of war since the late 1970s – for more than four decades and for longer than the lives of the vast majority of today’s Afghans. And, far too much of Afghanistan’s history has been repeated during this period. Afghanistan has had long periods of peace – and even its own empires – but time after time the nation has divided, become a regional backwater, or succumbed to civil war. Today, as was in the past, the nation’s leaders and factions have served their own interests, divided the nation, and plunged it into civil war – all at the expense of their peoples. -
Book Pakistanonedge.Pdf
Pakistan Project Report April 2013 Pakistan on the Edge Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, 2013 Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt., New Delhi - 110 010 Tel. (91-11) 2671-7983 Fax.(91-11) 2615 4191 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.idsa.in ISBN: 978-93-82512-02-8 First Published: April 2013 Cover shows Data Ganj Baksh, popularly known as Data Durbar, a Sufi shrine in Lahore. It is the tomb of Syed Abul Hassan Bin Usman Bin Ali Al-Hajweri. The shrine was attacked by radical elements in July 2010. The photograph was taken in August 2010. Courtesy: Smruti S Pattanaik. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this Report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute or the Government of India. Published by: Magnum Books Pvt Ltd Registered Office: C-27-B, Gangotri Enclave Alaknanda, New Delhi-110 019 Tel.: +91-11-42143062, +91-9811097054 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.magnumbooks.org All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, sorted in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). Contents Preface 5 Abbreviations 7 Introduction 9 Chapter 1 Political Scenario: The Emerging Trends Amit Julka, Ashok K. Behuria and Sushant Sareen 13 Chapter 2 Provinces: A Strained Federation Sushant Sareen and Ashok K. Behuria 29 Chapter 3 Militant Groups in Pakistan: New Coalition, Old Politics Amit Julka and Shamshad Ahmad Khan 41 Chapter 4 Continuing Religious Radicalism and Ever Widening Sectarian Divide P. -
Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan
Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan in Pakistan and Militancy Religion a report of the csis program on crisis, conflict, and cooperation Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan a literature review 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 Project Director Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Robert D. Lamb E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org Author Mufti Mariam Mufti June 2012 ISBN 978-0-89206-700-8 CSIS Ë|xHSKITCy067008zv*:+:!:+:! CHARTING our future a report of the csis program on crisis, conflict, and cooperation Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan a literature review Project Director Robert L. Lamb Author Mariam Mufti June 2012 CHARTING our future About CSIS—50th Anniversary Year For 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has developed practical solutions to the world’s greatest challenges. As we celebrate this milestone, CSIS scholars continue to provide strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and de- velop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Since 1962, CSIS has been dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. After 50 years, CSIS has become one of the world’s pre- eminent international policy institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global development and economic integration. -
EASO Country of Origin Information Report Pakistan Security Situation
European Asylum Support Office EASO Country of Origin Information Report Pakistan Security Situation October 2018 SUPPORT IS OUR MISSION European Asylum Support Office EASO Country of Origin Information Report Pakistan Security Situation October 2018 More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). ISBN: 978-92-9476-319-8 doi: 10.2847/639900 © European Asylum Support Office 2018 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, unless otherwise stated. For third-party materials reproduced in this publication, reference is made to the copyrights statements of the respective third parties. Cover photo: FATA Faces FATA Voices, © FATA Reforms, url, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0 Neither EASO nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained herein. EASO COI REPORT PAKISTAN: SECURITY SITUATION — 3 Acknowledgements EASO would like to acknowledge the Belgian Center for Documentation and Research (Cedoca) in the Office of the Commissioner General for Refugees and Stateless Persons, as the drafter of this report. Furthermore, the following national asylum and migration departments have contributed by reviewing the report: The Netherlands, Immigration and Naturalization Service, Office for Country Information and Language Analysis Hungary, Office of Immigration and Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Office Documentation Centre Slovakia, Migration Office, Department of Documentation and Foreign Cooperation Sweden, Migration Agency, Lifos -
North and South Waziristan by Rahimullah Yusufzai
VOLUME VI, ISSUE 18 u SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 IN THIS ISSUE: A Who’s Who of the InsurGENCY IN PAKISTAn’s NORTH-WEST FRONTIER PROVINCE: PART One – NORTH AND SOUTH WAZIRISTAN By Rahimullah Yusufzai...............................................................................1 ENERGY SECURITY AND THE PKK THREAT TO THE BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN PIPE- LINE By Nihat Ali Ozcan and Saban Kardas........................................................4 AQIM’s OFFENSIVE REVEALS SHIFT FROM INSURGENCY TO TERRORIST TaC- TICS IN ALGERIA By Thomas Renard......................................................................................7 REASSESSING THE TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM-CRIMINAL LINK IN SOUTH AMERICA’s TRI-BORDER AREA By Benedetta Berti......................................................................................10 Terrorism Monitor is a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. A Who’s Who of the Insurgency in Pakistan’s The Terrorism Monitor is designed to be read by policy- North-West Frontier Province: Part One – North makers and other specialists yet be accessible to the general and South Waziristan public. The opinions expressed within are solely those of the By Rahimullah Yusufzai authors and do not necessarily reflect those of The Jamestown Foundation. ilitants operating in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) include both Taliban and non-Taliban forces. However, the Taliban Mmilitants are much larger in number and have a lot more influence in Unauthorized reproduction or the region. The Pakistani Taliban have close links with the Afghan Taliban and redistribution of this or any operate on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, also known as the Jamestown publication is strictly prohibited by law. Durand Line after the British diplomat who demarcated the boundary in 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand. The non-Taliban militants, on the other hand, are often pro-government and enjoy cordial ties with the Pakistan authorities and security forces. -
Islamist Militancy in the Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Region and U.S. Policy
= 81&2.89= .1.9&3(>=.3=9-*=&0.89&38 +,-&3.89&3=47)*7=*,.43=&3)=__=41.(>= _=1&3=74389&)9= 5*(.&1.89=.3=4:9-=8.&3=++&.78= *33*9-=&9?2&3= 5*(.&1.89=.3=.))1*=&89*73=++&.78= 4;*2'*7=,+`=,**2= 43,7*88.43&1= *8*&7(-=*7;.(*= 18/1**= <<<_(78_,4;= -.10-= =*5479=+47=43,7*88 Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress 81&2.89= .1.9&3(>=.3=9-*=&0.89&38+,-&3.89&3=47)*7=*,.43=&3)=__=41.(>= = :22&7>= Increasing militant activity in western Pakistan poses three key national security threats: an increased potential for major attacks against the United States itself; a growing threat to Pakistani stability; and a hindrance of U.S. efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. This report will be updated as events warrant. A U.S.-Pakistan relationship marked by periods of both cooperation and discord was transformed by the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and the ensuing enlistment of Pakistan as a key ally in U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts. Top U.S. officials have praised Pakistan for its ongoing cooperation, although long-held doubts exist about Islamabad’s commitment to some core U.S. interests. Pakistan is identified as a base for terrorist groups and their supporters operating in Kashmir, India, and Afghanistan. Since 2003, Pakistan’s army has conducted unprecedented and largely ineffectual counterterrorism operations in the country’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) bordering Afghanistan, where Al Qaeda operatives and pro-Taliban insurgents are said to enjoy “safe haven.” Militant groups have only grown stronger and more aggressive in 2008. -
Special Report No
SPECIAL REPORT NO. 494 | MAY 2021 UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE www.usip.org The Evolution and Potential Resurgence of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan By Amira Jadoon Contents Introduction ...................................3 The Rise and Decline of the TTP, 2007–18 .....................4 Signs of a Resurgent TPP, 2019–Early 2021 ............... 12 Regional Alliances and Rivalries ................................ 15 Conclusion: Keeping the TTP at Bay ............................. 19 A Pakistani soldier surveys what used to be the headquarters of Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP leader who was killed in March 2010. (Photo by Pir Zubair Shah/New York Times) Summary • Established in 2007, the Tehrik-i- attempts to intimidate local pop- regional affiliates of al-Qaeda and Taliban Pakistan (TTP) became ulations, and mergers with prior the Islamic State. one of Pakistan’s deadliest militant splinter groups suggest that the • Thwarting the chances of the TTP’s organizations, notorious for its bru- TTP is attempting to revive itself. revival requires a multidimensional tal attacks against civilians and the • Multiple factors may facilitate this approach that goes beyond kinetic Pakistani state. By 2015, a US drone ambition. These include the Afghan operations and renders the group’s campaign and Pakistani military Taliban’s potential political ascend- message irrelevant. Efforts need to operations had destroyed much of ency in a post–peace agreement prioritize investment in countering the TTP’s organizational coherence Afghanistan, which may enable violent extremism programs, en- and capacity. the TTP to redeploy its resources hancing the rule of law and access • While the TTP’s lethality remains within Pakistan, and the potential to essential public goods, and cre- low, a recent uptick in the number for TTP to deepen its links with ating mechanisms to address legiti- of its attacks, propaganda releases, other militant groups such as the mate grievances peacefully. -
Rise of Taliban in Waziristan Khan Zeb Burki ∗
Rise of Taliban in Waziristan Khan Zeb Burki ∗ Abstract Waziristan is in the eye of the storm since 2001. After the US invasion of Afghanistan and the overthrow of the Taliban government in 2002, Al-Qaeda and Taliban elements slipped into this region. The existing ground realities like terrain, tradition, administrative system, lack of political power, religious feelings, and socio-economic deprivation prevalent in Waziristan provided favourable and feasible ground for the rise and spread of Talibanization. The Pakistani troops moved into FATA to expel foreigners and check their further infiltration into the Pakistani tribal land. Military actions developed a sense of organization among the local Taliban in order to protect their friends and fight defensive jihad in Waziristan and hence Taliban groups emerged. NUMBER of groups emerged, and some prominent groups are Naik Muhammad Group, Abdullah Mehsud Group, Baitullah Mehsud Taliban Commandos, Mullah Nazir Group, Jalal-Ud- Din Haqani Group, Hafiz Gulbahadur Group. In 2007 a coherent group, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) came on the horizon. Soon a split occurred in TTP and Turkistan Baitanni Group and Abdullah Shaheed Group headed by Zain Ud Din stood against TTP. These groups remain dominant and have established their own regulation and Sharia in their area of influence. Keywords: Taliban, Waziristan, FATA, Pakistan Introduction The seed of Talibanization in Pakistan lies in General Zia-ul-Haq’s Afghan Policy. The support of Mujahideen and recruiting the Pakistani youth for Jihad in Afghanistan has proven to be a headache for Pakistan. Pakistan provided sanctuary to the Jihadis against the Soviet Union. The later formation of Taliban as an organized force with the help of Pakistani Intelligence Agency the ISI has become now a threat to ∗ Khan Zeb Burki, M. -
Tehrik E Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Militancy in Pakistan
Journal of Business and Social Review in Emerging Economies Vol. 7, No 3, September 2021 Volume and Issues Obtainable at Center for Sustainability Research and Consultancy Journal of Business and Social Review in Emerging Economies ISSN: 2519-089X & ISSN (E): 2519-0326 Volume 7: Issue 3 September 2021 Journal homepage: www.publishing.globalcsrc.org/jbsee Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Militancy in Pakistan *Surriya Shahab, PhD Scholar, Institute of Social and Cultural Studies, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan Muhammad Idrees, Visiting Lecturer, Pakistan Studies, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan Shaida Rasool, Visiting Lecturer, Pakistan Studies, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan Samana Mehreen, Visiting Lecturer, Pakistan Studies, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan *Corresponding author’s email: [email protected] ARTICLE DETAILS ABSTRACT History Purpose: Negotiations between two parties always have Revised format: Aug 2021 newsworthiness. Results of the negotiations can be strongly Available Online: Sep 2021 influenced by the media coverage. Pakistan’s government was also involved in peace negotiation with Tahrik e Taliban Pakistan Keywords (TTP) during January and February 2014. It was the most Peace talks, discussing issue in Pakistani media at that time. The aim of this Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Agenda Setting, research is to analyze the editorial policy of three Pakistani Editorial Policy, English language newspapers; Dawn, Nation and The News to Comparative Analysis check their favorable or unfavorable behavior regarding peace JEL Classification talks during January and February 2014. Z00, Z29 Design/Methodology/Approach: Agenda setting, priming and farming theories were used in this study. Qualitative content analysis method was used in this study to analyze the editorial policy of these three newspapers. -
Tehrik-E-Taliban Pakistan
DIIS REPORT 2010:12 DIIS REPORT TEHRIK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN AN ATTEMPT TO DECONSTRUCT THE UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION AND THE REASONS FOR ITS GROWTH IN PAKISTAN’S NORTH-WEST Qandeel Siddique DIIS REPORT 2010:12 DIIS REPORT DIIS . DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1 DIIS REPORT 2010:12 © Copenhagen 2010, Qandeel Siddique and DIIS Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Strandgade 56, DK-1401 Copenhagen, Denmark Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Cover photo: Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud promising future attacks on major U.S. cities and claiming responsibility for the attempted car bombing on Times Square, New York (AP Photo/IntelCenter) Cover: Anine Kristensen Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Vesterkopi AS ISBN 978-87-7605-419-9 Price: DKK 50.00 (VAT included) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk Hardcopies can be ordered at www.diis.dk Qandeel Siddique, MSc, Research Assistant, DIIS www.diis.dk/qsi 2 DIIS REPORT 2010:12 Contents Executive Summary 4 Acronyms 6 1. TTP Organization 7 2. TTP Background 14 3. TTP Ideology 20 4. Militant Map 29 4.1 The Waziristans 30 4.2 Bajaur 35 4.3 Mohmand Agency 36 4.4 Middle Agencies: Kurram, Khyber and Orakzai 36 4.5 Swat valley and Darra Adamkhel 39 4.6 Punjab and Sind 43 5. Child Recruitment, Media Propaganda 45 6. Financial Sources 52 7. Reasons for TTP Support and FATA and Swat 57 8. Conclusion 69 Appendix A. -
Ctc Sentinel 042021
OBJECTIVE ·· RELEVANT ·· RIGOROUS || JUNE/JULYAPRIL/MAY 2018 2021 · ·VOLUME VOLUME 11, 14, ISSUE ISSUE 6 4 A VIEWFEATURE FROM THE ARTICLE CT FOXHOLE A VIEWFEATURE FROM THE ARTICLE CT FOXHOLE TenThe Years Jihadi On: Threat Inside T h e J a n u a r y 6 LTC(R)Boost Bryan to Price theto Bin Indonesia Ladin Raid Accelerationism A Conversation with Admiral (Retired) Brian Former Hughes Director, and William H. McRavenKirsten and E. Schulze Nicholas Rasmussen CombatingCynthia Terrorism miller-idriss Center INTERVIEW Editor in Chief 1 A View from the CT Foxhole: Admiral (Retired) William H. McRaven, Former Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, and Nicholas Paul Cruickshank Rasmussen, Former National Counterterrorism Center Director, Reflect on the Usama bin Ladin Raid Managing Editor Audrey Alexander Kristina Hummel FEATURE ARTICLE EDITORIAL BOARD 12 Uniting for Total Collapse: The January 6 Boost to Accelerationism Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D. Brian Hughes and Cynthia Miller-Idriss Department Head Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point) ANALYSIS Lieutenant Colonel Sean Morrow 19 The March 2021 Palma Attack and the Evolving Jihadi Terror Threat to Director, CTC Mozambique Tim Lister Brian Dodwell 28 The Revival of the Pakistani Taliban Executive Director, CTC Abdul Sayed and Tore Hamming Don Rassler 39 A New Approach Is Necessary: The Policy Ramifications of the April 2021 Loyalist Violence in Northern Ireland Director of Strategic Initiatives, CTC Aaron Edwards CONTACT Ten years ago, the United States launched Operation Neptune Spear, the Combating Terrorism Center May 2011 raid on Usama bin Ladin’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, U.S. Military Academy which resulted in the death of al-Qa`ida’s founder. -
Bibliography: Terrorism by Country – Pakistan
PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 13, Issue 4 Bibliography: Terrorism by Country – Pakistan Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes [Bibliographic Series of Perspectives on Terrorism – BSPT-JT-2019-7] Abstract This bibliography contains journal articles, book chapters, books, edited volumes, theses, grey literature, bibliographies and other resources on terrorism affecting Pakistan. It covers both terrorist activity within the country’s borders (regardless of the perpetrators’ nationality) and terrorist activity by Pakistani nationals abroad. While focusing on recent literature, the bibliography is not restricted to a particular time period and covers publications up to July 2019. The literature has been retrieved by manually browsing more than 200 core and periphery sources in the field of Terrorism Studies. Additionally, full-text and reference retrieval systems have been employed to broaden the search. Keywords: bibliography, resources, literature, terrorism, Pakistan, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Islamic State, FATA, Kashmir NB: All websites were last visited on 20.07.2019. - See also Note for the Reader at the end of this literature list. Bibliographies and other Resources Atkins, Stephen E. (2011): Annotated Bibliography. In: Stephen E. Atkins (Ed.): The 9/11 Encyclopedia. (Vol. 1). (2nd ed.). Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO, 481-508. Bergen, Peter et al. (n.d.-): Drone Strikes: Pakistan. In: America’s Counterterrorism Wars. (New America In- Depth Report). URL: https://www.newamerica.org/in-depth/americas-counterterrorism-wars/pakistan Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan et al. (Principal Investigators) (2013): The BFRS Political Violence in Pakistan Dataset. URL: https://esoc.princeton.edu/files/bfrs-political-violence-pakistan-dataset Counter Extremism Project (CEP) (n.d.-): Pakistan: Extremism & Counter-Extremism.