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JULY 2009 . VOL 2 . ISSUE 7 Pakistan’s New Offensive The Army’s Planned Operation in South The army’s operation in South Waziristan Waziristan is different from the recent in South Waziristan Beginning in May 2009, the Tank- operation in Swat. The objectives of Jandola road—which travels from the two operations are clear in their By Samir Syed Pakistan’s settled areas of the NWFP titles. The Swat operation is called into South Waziristan Agency of Rah-e-Raast, which means “the path in april 2009, the Pakistani military FATA—has seen the daily movement of righteousness.” The goal is to bring launched a major operation against of military convoys.1 Tanks, artillery, the militants in the Swat Valley back Taliban militants in the Malakand region armored personnel carriers and trucks to the “right path.” After dislodging of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier carrying troops to the frontline pass these fighters from Swat, the army will Province (NWFP). The operation was through on an hourly basis.2 Escort maintain a presence in the region to re- considered a success, and the military vehicles with red flags precede the establish the writ of the government. claims that the entire Swat Valley has convoys, warning all traffic to move off The Waziristan operation, on the other been cleared of militants. In the wake of the road.3 No one is allowed to drive hand, is titled Rah-e-Nijat, or the the offensive, the Pakistan Army is now alongside a military convoy due to fears “path to deliverance.” The army’s plan mobilizing its forces to begin a major of a suicide attack. The forces’ general for Waziristan is simply to eliminate operation against the headquarters destination is through Jandola to the Baitullah Mehsud and his group; there of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Sarwakai route of South Waziristan. is no plan to establish the writ of the coalition of Pakistani Taliban groups led That route, which runs through the state, or even to counter other Taliban by Baitullah Mehsud. Baitullah is one of heart of the Mehsud tribe’s territory, groups. In fact, the army’s plan hinges, the world’s most wanted terrorists, and is the key to a successful military quite tenuously, on the hope that other U.S. authorities have placed a $5 million campaign in the area. Taliban groups will remain neutral in bounty on his head. Moreover, he is the conflict, allowing the military to wanted by Pakistan’s government for Without control of Sarwakai, Baitullah focus exclusively on one troublesome his alleged role in the assassination of Mehsud’s Taliban will have the ability faction. Failure to isolate Baitullah will former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to attack the army at will and retreat imperil the entire Waziristan operation. in December 2007. across Waziristan into Afghanistan. If No government or military force has the army is able to control Sarwakai, ever executed a successful campaign The operation, however, will require however, it will cut off the Baitullah- against the combined strength of the Pakistan’s military to deploy into what led Taliban’s ability to retreat into tribes in Waziristan. is considered one of the most dangerous Afghanistan. Under this scenario, to places in the world: South Waziristan reach the border Baitullah’s forces would Even if the government is able to cause Agency of the Federally Administered have to cross territory controlled by the Waziristan’s tribes to unite against Tribal Areas (FATA). Pakistan’s army Wazir, the Mehsud tribe’s traditional Baitullah or at least remain neutral in must do what no military has achieved enemy. While the Taliban’s ideology the conflict, it may not be enough to in more than 2,000 years of the region’s has softened that feud, there are still succeed. As a result, the intelligence recorded history: use military force tensions between the tribes. Pakistan’s agencies are pursuing two strategies. In to defeat the tribes of Waziristan in intelligence agencies are trying to ensure addition to isolating Baitullah from other their own territory. The Mehsud, along that these tensions remain high.4 The tribal militias, the intelligence agencies with the Afridi and the Wazir, have army’s overall plan is simple: surround are also backing a pro-government traditionally been the most warlike of the militants, deploy as much military leader among the Mehsud tribe to rival the Pashtun tribes. Even the British firepower as possible, and attack them Baitullah. They hope that such a leader Empire was forced to withdrawal after into submission. The army has also will pull support away from Baitullah, two disastrous and failed campaigns. deployed soldiers to key points along the especially if he is killed. Until recently, Yet with modern technology and public perimeter of the operation so that they this was in the form of Qari Zainuddin support for the operation, there are can kill or capture militants as they flee Mehsud, a relative of slain Taliban hopes that the Pakistan Army will be the bombardment toward Afghanistan. commander Abdullah Mehsud. With able to achieve the monumental task. The government’s operation is strictly support from the government and against the Baitullah-led Taliban, and Turkistan Bhittani, the leader of the This article will examine Pakistan’s not against other Pakistani Taliban Bhittani tribe, Qari Zain was trying planned operation in South Waziristan groups. to weaken Baitullah’s popularity.5 and how Baitullah Mehsud might Recently, he launched a much publicized retaliate, and also explain why even a smear campaign questioning Baitullah’s successful operation will not put an end commitment to Islam and the Taliban to Pakistani Taliban groups undertaking 1 This information is based on the author’s first-hand ob- attacks against U.S. and NATO forces in servations in the tribal regions of Pakistan. 5 The Wazir are the largest of Waziristan’s tribes. They neighboring Afghanistan. 2 Ibid. are divided into two main branches, the Utmanzai Wazir 3 Ibid. (predominantly in North Waziristan) and the Ahmedzai 4 The principal card that the Pakistan Army has used to Wazir (South Waziristan). The tribe stretches into east- divide the Waziristan tribes is the issue of foreign fight- ern Afghanistan, and many tribesmen have dual nation- ers. These include mainly Arabs and Uzbeks, who do not alities. The Mehsud are the next largest in size. The Bhit- see eye-to-eye with each other. tanis are among the smallest of the tribes in Waziristan. JULY 2009 . VOL 2 . ISSUE 7 cause, and his “unpatriotic” motives was the assassination of Qari Zain. of Miramshah in North Waziristan, for attacking Pakistani security forces. His failure to respond is probably killing 22 soldiers.12 After the incident, That gamble failed, however, because because he has not yet been pressured a spokesman for the militant leader said Qari Zain was gunned down by one of to the point of taking action. Despite its they were breaking off their peace deal his own bodyguards allegedly on the claims, the army has yet to kill or arrest with the government. Maulvi Nazir, orders of Baitullah.6 Qari Zain’s mantle a single senior Taliban commander in operating out of South Waziristan, has has now been passed to his brother, Waziristan, or even in Swat.9 Reports already announced the dissolution of Misbahuddin, who has vowed to carry on from Waziristan suggest that while the his peace deal with the government.13 the “jihad against Baitullah Mehsud.” army has been expending a substantial The army immediately responded amount of ammunition, there has been by saying it was not conducting an Pakistan’s last offensive against little loss of life on the militants’ side. operation in North Waziristan and that Baitullah Mehsud’s militants in 2008 As one senior ex-intelligence official its actions were only against Baitullah ended in a de facto cease-fire. There said, “They want to see what the real Mehsud. Subsequently, efforts were is no clear explanation as to why the situation on the ground is likely to be, launched to reconcile “differences” with government failed to achieve success before going in with full force.”10 both Taliban commanders to prevent in 2008. The militants themselves misunderstandings. admitted that they “had been pushed” There are several reasons why both to the limit.7 The army clearly had the Baitullah and Pakistan’s military have Unfortunately, the July 5 incident is not upper hand in the offensive, yet for reacted timidly. Baitullah is likely an isolated misunderstanding. The fact some reason pulled back. That action hoping that the other Pakistani Taliban remains that all the Taliban factions was in character with all of Pakistan’s leaders in the tribal areas will begin are suspicious of the army, and despite security operations in the region since retaliating against the government due differences immediately band together the 9/11 attacks in the United States. to encroachments on their territory. if another faction is threatened by a The security forces have regularly For their part, Pakistan’s intelligence military operation. Throughout history, pursued the militants in response to services are being careful to keep Maulvi each government that has attempted international pressure, and consistently Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur, two other to pacify the region has practiced a ended up forging peace deals with them. top Taliban commanders in Waziristan, strategy of “divide and rule,” and the As explained in a BBC report, out of the equation. Unfortunately, this region’s tribes understand its dynamics may no longer be possible.11 Both men well. The militants control territory operate out of Waziristan, and while throughout the North West both leaders have said they have no Baitullah and his faction also have a Frontier Province and every conflict with the Pakistan Army, they more direct way to retaliate against operation by the army has are vehemently opposed to the Pakistani the Pakistani government.

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