july 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 7

Pakistan’s New Offensive The Army’s Planned Operation in South The army’s operation in South Waziristan Waziristan is different from the recent in South Waziristan Beginning in May 2009, the Tank- operation in Swat. The objectives of Jandola road—which travels from the two operations are clear in their By Samir Syed Pakistan’s settled areas of the NWFP titles. The Swat operation is called into South Waziristan Agency of Rah-e-Raast, which means “the path in april 2009, the Pakistani military FATA—has seen the daily movement of righteousness.” The goal is to bring launched a major operation against of military convoys.1 Tanks, artillery, the militants in the Swat Valley back Taliban militants in the Malakand region armored personnel carriers and trucks to the “right path.” After dislodging of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier carrying troops to the frontline pass these fighters from Swat, the army will Province (NWFP). The operation was through on an hourly basis.2 Escort maintain a presence in the region to re- considered a success, and the military vehicles with red flags precede the establish the writ of the government. claims that the entire Swat Valley has convoys, warning all traffic to move off The Waziristan operation, on the other been cleared of militants. In the wake of the road.3 No one is allowed to drive hand, is titled Rah-e-Nijat, or the the offensive, the Pakistan Army is now alongside a military convoy due to fears “path to deliverance.” The army’s plan mobilizing its forces to begin a major of a suicide attack. The forces’ general for Waziristan is simply to eliminate operation against the headquarters destination is through Jandola to the Baitullah Mehsud and his group; there of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Sarwakai route of South Waziristan. is no plan to establish the writ of the coalition of Pakistani Taliban groups led That route, which runs through the state, or even to counter other Taliban by Baitullah Mehsud. Baitullah is one of heart of the Mehsud tribe’s territory, groups. In fact, the army’s plan hinges, the world’s most wanted terrorists, and is the key to a successful military quite tenuously, on the hope that other U.S. authorities have placed a $5 million campaign in the area. Taliban groups will remain neutral in bounty on his head. Moreover, he is the conflict, allowing the military to wanted by Pakistan’s government for Without control of Sarwakai, Baitullah focus exclusively on one troublesome his alleged role in the assassination of Mehsud’s Taliban will have the ability faction. Failure to isolate Baitullah will former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to attack the army at will and retreat imperil the entire Waziristan operation. in December 2007. across Waziristan into Afghanistan. If No government or military force has the army is able to control Sarwakai, ever executed a successful campaign The operation, however, will require however, it will cut off the Baitullah- against the combined strength of the Pakistan’s military to deploy into what led Taliban’s ability to retreat into tribes in Waziristan. is considered one of the most dangerous Afghanistan. Under this scenario, to places in the world: South Waziristan reach the border Baitullah’s forces would Even if the government is able to cause Agency of the Federally Administered have to cross territory controlled by the Waziristan’s tribes to unite against Tribal Areas (FATA). Pakistan’s army Wazir, the Mehsud tribe’s traditional Baitullah or at least remain neutral in must do what no military has achieved enemy. While the Taliban’s ideology the conflict, it may not be enough to in more than 2,000 years of the region’s has softened that feud, there are still succeed. As a result, the intelligence recorded history: use military force tensions between the tribes. Pakistan’s agencies are pursuing two strategies. In to defeat the tribes of Waziristan in intelligence agencies are trying to ensure addition to isolating Baitullah from other their own territory. The Mehsud, along that these tensions remain high.4 The tribal militias, the intelligence agencies with the Afridi and the Wazir, have army’s overall plan is simple: surround are also backing a pro-government traditionally been the most warlike of the militants, deploy as much military leader among the Mehsud tribe to rival the Pashtun tribes. Even the British firepower as possible, and attack them Baitullah. They hope that such a leader Empire was forced to withdrawal after into submission. The army has also will pull support away from Baitullah, two disastrous and failed campaigns. deployed soldiers to key points along the especially if he is killed. Until recently, Yet with modern technology and public perimeter of the operation so that they this was in the form of Qari Zainuddin support for the operation, there are can kill or capture militants as they flee Mehsud, a relative of slain Taliban hopes that the Pakistan Army will be the bombardment toward Afghanistan. commander Abdullah Mehsud. With able to achieve the monumental task. The government’s operation is strictly support from the government and against the Baitullah-led Taliban, and Turkistan Bhittani, the leader of the This article will examine Pakistan’s not against other Pakistani Taliban Bhittani tribe, Qari Zain was trying planned operation in South Waziristan groups. to weaken Baitullah’s popularity.5 and how Baitullah Mehsud might Recently, he launched a much publicized retaliate, and also explain why even a smear campaign questioning Baitullah’s successful operation will not put an end commitment to Islam and the Taliban to Pakistani Taliban groups undertaking 1 This information is based on the author’s first-hand ob- attacks against U.S. and NATO forces in servations in the tribal regions of Pakistan. 5 The Wazir are the largest of Waziristan’s tribes. They neighboring Afghanistan. 2 Ibid. are divided into two main branches, the Utmanzai Wazir 3 Ibid. (predominantly in North Waziristan) and the Ahmedzai 4 The principal card that the Pakistan Army has used to Wazir (South Waziristan). The tribe stretches into east- divide the Waziristan tribes is the issue of foreign fight- ern Afghanistan, and many tribesmen have dual nation- ers. These include mainly Arabs and Uzbeks, who do not alities. The Mehsud are the next largest in size. The Bhit- see eye-to-eye with each other. tanis are among the smallest of the tribes in Waziristan. july 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 7 cause, and his “unpatriotic” motives was the assassination of Qari Zain. of Miramshah in North Waziristan, for attacking Pakistani security forces. His failure to respond is probably killing 22 soldiers.12 After the incident, That gamble failed, however, because because he has not yet been pressured a spokesman for the militant leader said Qari Zain was gunned down by one of to the point of taking action. Despite its they were breaking off their peace deal his own bodyguards allegedly on the claims, the army has yet to kill or arrest with the government. Maulvi Nazir, orders of Baitullah.6 Qari Zain’s mantle a single senior Taliban commander in operating out of South Waziristan, has has now been passed to his brother, Waziristan, or even in Swat.9 Reports already announced the dissolution of Misbahuddin, who has vowed to carry on from Waziristan suggest that while the his peace deal with the government.13 the “jihad against Baitullah Mehsud.” army has been expending a substantial The army immediately responded amount of ammunition, there has been by saying it was not conducting an Pakistan’s last offensive against little loss of life on the militants’ side. operation in North Waziristan and that Baitullah Mehsud’s militants in 2008 As one senior ex-intelligence official its actions were only against Baitullah ended in a de facto cease-fire. There said, “They want to see what the real Mehsud. Subsequently, efforts were is no clear explanation as to why the situation on the ground is likely to be, launched to reconcile “differences” with government failed to achieve success before going in with full force.”10 both Taliban commanders to prevent in 2008. The militants themselves misunderstandings. admitted that they “had been pushed” There are several reasons why both to the limit.7 The army clearly had the Baitullah and Pakistan’s military have Unfortunately, the July 5 incident is not upper hand in the offensive, yet for reacted timidly. Baitullah is likely an isolated misunderstanding. The fact some reason pulled back. That action hoping that the other Pakistani Taliban remains that all the Taliban factions was in character with all of Pakistan’s leaders in the tribal areas will begin are suspicious of the army, and despite security operations in the region since retaliating against the government due differences immediately band together the 9/11 attacks in the United States. to encroachments on their territory. if another faction is threatened by a The security forces have regularly For their part, Pakistan’s intelligence military operation. Throughout history, pursued the militants in response to services are being careful to keep Maulvi each government that has attempted international pressure, and consistently Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur, two other to pacify the region has practiced a ended up forging peace deals with them. top Taliban commanders in Waziristan, strategy of “divide and rule,” and the As explained in a BBC report, out of the equation. Unfortunately, this region’s tribes understand its dynamics may no longer be possible.11 Both men well. The militants control territory operate out of Waziristan, and while throughout the North West both leaders have said they have no Baitullah and his faction also have a Frontier Province and every conflict with the Pakistan Army, they more direct way to retaliate against operation by the army has are vehemently opposed to the Pakistani the Pakistani government. They retain ultimately ended with the army military entering their territory. the option to strike in Pakistan’s major losing territory. In fact, there is Furthermore, they already collaborate cities to politically destabilize the a recurring pattern to the army’s with Baitullah’s faction during cross- country. The fact that Baitullah has not offensives. Troops nearly always border raids in Afghanistan. Indeed, as already exercised this option since the tend to be deployed following soon as the army moved convoys across start of the Waziristan offensive likely international claims that the area their territory, a number of incidents signifies that the army’s operation in question is newly under al- have occurred. On July 5, militants is not yet intense enough. When the Qaeda’s control and poses a threat loyal to Hafiz Gul Bahadur ambushed army does decide to escalate their to the country’s nuclear arsenal.8 a military convoy outside the town campaign, the recoil will likely be felt from Islamabad to Karachi. Baitullah It is likely that Pakistan’s government 9 The Swat Taliban militants operated under 15 senior Mehsud has one of the most efficient wants to avoid turning the militias commanders. All of these were later named in govern- militant networks in the country, with in the tribal areas firmly against the ment “most wanted” lists. See “Pakistan Puts up Taliban extensive ties to Punjabi-based militant government due to concern about their Chief Reward,” BBC, May 29, 2009. The army says only groups such as Jaysh-i-Muhammad, ability to destabilize Pakistan. two of these commanders might have been killed, but Harkat-ul Mujahidin and Lashkar-i- 14 could not confirm their deaths with certainty. Jhangvi. Any serious operation in Baitullah’s Ability to Retaliate 10 Personal interview, former Pakistani intelligence of- Waziristan will at least in the short Although the Waziristan operation has ficial, Islamabad, July 3, 2009. term unite the Taliban leadership begun, Baitullah Mehsud has not yet 11 The Pakistan Army has made peace deals with both and increase militant attacks across retaliated in any significant manner. leaders. In September 2006, they forged a deal with Hafiz Pakistan. By retaining the capability His only alleged gesture of retaliation Gul Bahadur, while in March 2007 they brokered a deal to execute suicide attacks in Pakistan’s with Maulvi Nazir Ahmed. The conditions of the deal major cities, Baitullah Mehsud and his 6 For more on the assassination of Qari Zain, see Ra- were that the army would keep its strength to the mini- himullah Yusufzai, “The Significance of Qari Zain’s As- mal in their territories and not use it to conduct any sort 12 Mushtaq Yusufzai, “22 Soldiers Killed in Waziristan,” sassination in Pakistan,” CTC Sentinel 1:7 (2009). of military operation in the region. The army also tacitly The News International, June 29, 2009. 7 Personal interview, Baitullah Mehsud and militants, agreed to “look the other way” as the Taliban carried out 13 Ibid. South Waziristan Agency, May 2008. cross-border raids. This has kept them from attacking 14 For more details on the “Punjabi Taliban,” see Hassan 8 Syed Shoaib Hasan, “Long War Against Pakistan Tali- the Pakistan Army. See “Pakistani Militants Abandon Abbas, “Defining the Punjabi Taliban Network,” CTC ban,” BBC, June 2, 2009. Deal,” BBC, June 30, 2009. Sentinel 2:4 (2009). july 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 7 affiliates have a stranglehold over the Pakistan government’s actions in the tribal areas.

Conclusion Even if the Waziristan operation succeeds, it will not cease cross-border Taliban attacks against NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan. In fact, the operation may provide greater impetus to the flow of militants across the border. Baitullah has always been more focused on effecting changes in Pakistan, and his death would have little or no effect on the situation in Afghanistan. As stated by Qari Misbahuddin, who is now leading the anti-Baitullah faction among the Mehsud, “Jihad against America and its allies in Afghanistan would continue” if Baitullah was killed. “Pakistan’s government only has problems with the foreign militants in the area. They [the government] have always supported us in the jihad in Afghanistan.”15

The lessons are clear. The army’s goal is to eliminate one Pakistani Taliban commander due to his penchant for attacking Pakistan’s government and military. Its success in this operation will depend on whether it can isolate Baitullah from Waziristan’s other tribal commanders. Furthermore, even if Pakistan succeeds in the Waziristan operation, it will have little effect on the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan.

Samir Syed is a freelance journalist who has covered Pakistan and Afghanistan for the last 10 years. He has written for a number of local and foreign publications.

15 Syed Shoaib Hasan, “A Very Strange Taliban Burial,” BBC, June 24, 2009.