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Complete TF Final Word THE HENRY M. JACKSON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON ! CAN NATO REACT TO THE ARAB SPRING? DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, & THE RULE OF LAW February 27, 2012 The Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies University of Washington TASK FORCE 2012 Can NATO React to the Arab Spring?: Democracy, Human Rights, and the Rule of Law Task Force Advisor: Professor Christopher Jones Task Force Evaluator: Dr. Bates Gill, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Task Force Members: Andrea Banel Armando Cortes Alice Jacobson Jake Lustig Pavel Mantchev Morgan McAllister Kelsey Miller Margaret Moore (Editor) Francis Ramoin (Editor) Alyson Singh (Secretary) Hae Suh (Editor) Josiah Surface Samantha Thomas-Nadler Jasmine Zhang (Editor) ! TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Tunisia [2-49] 1 INSTITUTIONS & DEMOCRACY BUILDING IN TUNISIA 2 1.1 Mohamed Ghannouchi and the Transition 1.2 The Justice System 6 1.3 The Election 7 1.4 Democracy Building in Tunisia and Iraq 10 1.5 NATO 12 2 THE MILITARY & FOREIGN INFLUENCE IN THE DOMESTIC AFFAIRS 16 OF TUNISIA 2.1 Background and Role of the Army in Society 17 2.2 Foreign Interests and Assistance to the Local Army 20 2.2.a United States 2.2.b Europe 22 2.3 Army in the Revolution and the Government Transition 25 2.4 Foreign Reactions to the Revolution 27 2.4.a Europe 2.4.b France 29 2.4.c United States 30 2.5 Post-Revolution Role of the Army 32 2.6 NATO 3 ISLAMIC DEMOCRACY? 36 3.1 The Theoretical Framework of Islamic Democracy 38 3.2 Shari’a Law 43 3.3 The History of Islamism in Tunisia 45 3.4 Ennahda Today 46 3.5 International Examples of Non-secular Democracies 48 3.6 NATO 49 Egypt 4 WHAT THE DICTATORS TAUGHT US 52 4.1 Pillar of Stability: Iran 53 4.2 A Well Understood Value: Egypt 58 4.3 What Does it Mean?: Egypt and Iran Compared 64 4.4 Where to go from Here: US and NATO Policy Recommendations 66 5 THE EGYPTIAN ARMED FORCES & THE REVOLUTION OF 2011 70 5.1 Background 71 5.2 Military Influence & Privileges 75 5.3 The Military Role in the Revolution 77 5.4 Transition of Authority & The Future of the Egyptian Military 79 ! I! 5.5 US & NATO Recommendations 83 6 DEMOCRACY & THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD 86 6.1 Egypt’s Influential Role in the Middle East 87 6.2 The History of the Muslim Brotherhood 88 6.3 The Brotherhood Enters Egyptian Politics 92 6.4 The Future of Egypt and the Brotherhood 94 6.5 Recommendations to NATO 101 7 THE COPTIC QUESTION: WELFARE OF MINORITY GROUPS AS 102 INDICATIVE OF DEMOCRACY 7.1 Historical Background of the Marginalization of the Copts 104 7.2 Coptic Involvement and Response to the Arab Spring 107 7.3 Women in Egypt 108 7.4 Next Steps: How can NATO respond? 111 Libya 8 THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT & LIBYA—A CASE STUDY 114 8.1 Who’s Responsible? 115 8.1.a The Principle of R2P 116 8.1.b The Tactics of R2P 120 The Danger of Unilateral Coercive Intervention 121 UN Security Council Reform 122 Double Standards & the Consistency of R2P’s Application 123 8.2 Preventing a Massacre 127 8.2.a Qaddafi’s Actions & Rhetoric 128 8.3 Political Legitimacy & Legal Authority 133 8.3.a Local Requests for Intervention 134 8.3.b Clear Legal Basis 137 8.3.c Firm Regional Support 140 8.3.d Multilateral Coalition 145 8.4 Operational Feasibility 148 8.5 Two Big Criticisms of NATO’s Operation 154 8.6 The Future of R2P: Focusing on Prevention 156 9 THE FUTURE OF NATO IN LIBYA 174 9.1 Political Timeline for Libya and the NTC 161 9.2 Challenges for the future of Libyan state-building 163 9.3 NATO’s future role in Libya 168 Syria 10 SYRIA, POLITICS & PROTEST 174 10.1 The uprising and its evolution, in brief 175 10.2 The backdrop to revolt, economic and social contexts 178 10.3 Political alliances and the building of alternative leadership 181 10.4 The movement on the ground and the organization of forces 183 10.5 Geographies of resistance and repression 186 10.6 Prognosis and Political Possibilities 188 ! II! 11 HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS & ETHICAL IMPLICATIONS IN THE 189 SYRIAN UPRISING 11.1 State’s Authoritarian Nature & Determination to Stay in Power 191 11.2 Syrian Economics 192 11.2.a Oil and Economic Sanctions 11.2.b Russia and China 194 11.3 Human Rights in Syria 192 11.3.a The Hama Massacre 196 11.3.b Escalation and Continuing Deaths in the Syrian Uprising 197 11.3.c Human Rights Violations 202 11.4 International Response 204 11.5 The Future of Syria 208 12 A CASE FOR NATO: INTERVENTION IN SYRIA 213 12.1 NATO 215 12.2 NATO & Syria 220 Thoughts from Outside the Maghreb 13 HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH & THE ARAB SPRING 227 13.1 Human Rights Discourse 228 13.2 Human Rights Watch as a Western Organization 230 13.3 Human Rights Watch and the Arab Spring 232 13.4 Humanitarian Intervention 236 13.5 Human Rights in Libya and Syria 238 13.6 Future of Human Rights and the Arab Spring 240 14 ISRAEL & THE ARAB SPRING 242 14.1 Israel and the Modern Middle East 244 14.2 The Arab Spring and Israel - Challenges and Concerns 247 14.2.a Egypt Who will replace Mubarak? 249 What will become of the Israeli-Egyptian Peace agreement? 250 Does the Muslim Brotherhood pose a threat to Israel? The role of Egypt in an Israeli-Palestinian agreement 251 14.2.b Syria: The Wildcard Islamic Extremism 253 A pro-Western, Anti-Assad Regime 254 Who will play the role of Franz Ferdinand? 14.2.c The Necessity of Renewed Negotiations 256 14.2.d Obstacles to Restarting Negotiations 257 14.3 What Comes Next? 260 14.3.a Joining the Middle East Step 1: Significant Peace Negotiations 261 Step 2: Israel as a Powerful Economic Ally in the Region 264 Investment in Infrastructure 265 A Regional Trade Agreement 266 Step 3: The Israeli Model 267 14.4 The Future of the US and NATO in Arab-Israeli Relations 269 ! III! LIST OF ACRONYMS ! ABC—Anyone But Communists ABT—Anyone But Terrorists AIOC— Anglo-Iranian Oil Company ANT—Armée Nationale Tunisienne CPR—Congress for the Republic. A political party in Tunisia DF4D—Domestic Finance for Development ENP—European Neighborhood Policy ENPI—European Neighborhood Partnership Instrument EU—European Union FGM—Female Genital Mutilation FMF—Foreign Military Financing FOM—Free Officers Movement FSA—Free Syrian Army GDP—Gross Domestic Product ICC—International Criminal Court IDF—Israeli Defense Forces IMET—International Military Education and Training IMF—International Monetary Fund INSEE—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques ISAF—International Security and Assistance Force LCC—Local Coordinating Committees (In Syria) LR—Liberation Rally MD—Mediterranean Dialogue MENA—Middle East North Africa MNNA—Major Non-NATO Ally NADRHD—Nonproliferation, Anti-terrorism, Demining, and Related Programs - Humanitarian Demining NATO —North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDP —National Democratic Party OPEC—Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PAP-T—Partnership Action Plan against Terrorism PLO—Palestinian Liberation Organization PNA—Palestinian National Authority, created after the Oslo Accords RCC—Revolutionary Command Council RCD—Constitutional Democratic Rally. The political party of the former Tunisian president Ben Ali RCD—Rassemblement Constitutionnel Démocratique SARC—Syrian Arab Red Crescent SCAF—Supreme Council of Armed Forces SFOR—Stabilization Force SNC—Syrian National Coalition UDHR—Universal Declaration of Human Rights UN Security Council—United Nations Security Council UN—United Nations UNGA—United Nations General Assembly UNHCR—United Nations Human Rights Resolution UNHRC—United Nations Human Rights Council UNSC – United Nations Security Council UNSG—United Nations Secretary General US – United States USD – US Dollars ($) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Arab Spring brought a regional paradigm shift in which human dignity and participatory involvement in the political process became the demands of the masses. As long-standing dictators began to fall, NATO was and continues to be confronted with the challenge of reevaluating its adherence to the Cold War status quo of regional stability at any cost. NATO can no longer afford to ignore the popular opinion of North Africa and the Middle East and thus must seize this as an opportunity to solidify their commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of the law. While NATO member states have long championed these values domestically, they now witness the Arab World collectively struggling to champion them as well. However, the uncertain future of the governments in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria makes it difficult for NATO to act. While each country section will highlight individualized recommendations to NATO and its member states, the overall theme that can be extracted is that NATO should adopt a facilitating role in these respective state-building processes. In a time of unprecedented regime change, domestic ownership of the transition is essential to guarantee legitimacy. Due to the diverse nature of the countries affected by the Arab Spring, our task force chose to write about four nations at very different transitionary stages: 1) Tunisia; 2) Egypt; 3) Libya; and 4) Syria. Each group studied the issues that pertained most to their country. The Tunisia and Egypt groups’ analysis is centered on the future of democracy and the state building process, while the groups studying Libya and Syria explored human rights and the international principle of the Responsibility to Protect. Part V of our report, Thoughts from Outside the Maghreb, incorporates a wider perspective by looking at the reception Israel and Human Rights Watch have had in the unfolding of these events—as well as offering thoughts on what role they might play in the future.
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