FEDERAL INSTITUTE FOR RISK ASSESSMENT Example: Global milk trade milk Global Example: world a globalizedFacingchallengesnewin Andreas HenselAndreas authenticity and authenticity Dîner le 9.11.2015 (O/N) foodsafety: Challenges of globalization

 Continuing global population growth: 7.3 billion (2015) to an expected 10.9 billion (2100)

 Changes in dietary behavior due to increase of purchasing power (e.g. China, India)

 Competition on agricultural market: Production of food  renewable bioresources/energy crops

 Development of supply and demand on a global level encourages trade of which are less safe and/or have lower quality

 Not possible anymore to systematically control internationally traded knowledge-based services and goods

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Systems / Beijing, China page 2 Blaise Pascal‘s Wager – Basic concept of the decision theory

• You believe in god, and god exists – you will go to heaven. • You believe in god, but god does not exist – you will not be punished. •You do not believe in god, and god does not exist – you will also not be punished. • You do not believe in god, but god does exist – you will get punishment.

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 3 Pascal‘s Wager in context of risk assessment

• You expect a risk and it exists – you will be rewarded (due to correct assessment) • You expect a risk but it does not exist – you will neither be rewarded nor do you lose anything. •You do not expect a risk and it does not exist – again, you will neither be rewarded nor lose anything. •You do not expect a risk but it does exist – in this case you will lose.

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Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 4 What is risk?

Hazard… Risk…

…means the potential of a …means the likelihood of an substance or situation to cause an adverse effect in an organism, adverse health effect. system or a (sub) population upon

exposure to hazardous substances

afrikareisen.info

: : Bild

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 5 Definition: Traceability Codex Alimentarius: Traceability / product tracing: the ability to follow the movement of a food through specified stages of production, processing and distribution.

Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 §3 p 15

Traceability systems trace and track

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 6 The overall world milk production is increasing

The largest milk producing countries

EU 159

India 142

USA 93

Pakistan 40

China 37

Brasil 35

Russia 31

New Zealand 22 Million t. Turkey 18

Mexiko 12

2014 2013 2012 Ukraine 11 © ZMB

Australia 10 Source: ZMB- Estimates, National Statistics, IDF, FAO.

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 7 China: Above average growth of global import market share

Major importers of milk products (in Mio. t MEQ)

China 9,6 Russia 5,3 China‘s USA 3,0 market share Mexiko 3,0 increased Algeria 3,0 from 4% in Japan 2,5 2008 to 16% S.-Arabia in 2014 Indonesia 1,7 Venezuela 1,3 Egypt 1,5 EU 1,4 1,4 Philippines 2014 2013 2010 Singapur 1,3 Vietnam Source: ZMB, calculations based on Australia 0,9 external trade statistics

© ZMB

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 8 Example: Global trade of whole milk powder (WMP)

Largest importers of WMP in 2014 1,000 t % NZ % USA % EU China 671 92 0 1 Algeria 204 28 0 61 Venezuela 143 12 0 0

In Asia, Africa and South America whole milk powder is in demand

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China 9 After Russia‘s ban of EU imports: EU dairy exports were quickly redistributed in 2014.

DISTRIBUTION OF EU EXPORTS 2013 Export value: 10.2 billion EUR Russia 14%

others 35% USA DISTRIBUTION OF EU EXPORTS 2014 8% USA 8% Algeria Libyia 8% China 2% 7% Libanon others 2% 35% China Australia Algeria 8% 2% 4% Egypt Switzerland 2% 4% Malaysia South Korea Russia Saudi-Arabia 2% 7% 2% 3% United Arab Oman Nigeria Indonesia Oman Hong Kong Emirates Japan 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% Libanon Saudi Arabia 2% 4% Libyia Export value: 9.4 billion EUR 2% Switzerland South Korea 4% 2% United Arab Nigeria Egypt Hong Kong Indonesia Emirates Japan 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 10 EU-Exports are overall stable, with a slight downwards trend for cheese

EU: Exports of dairy products (in 1,000 t, January until July) 470 453453 2013 2014 2015 419 415 403 384 347 318 301303

247 234 239 217 205 177 149 117 92 73

Butter* cheese WMP SMP Condenced Whey Drinking milk milk powder and cream

*Includes butter oil. Source: EU-Commission, Eurostat © ZMB

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 11 2015: For the first time China was second for EU imports of dairy products

Distribution of EU exports in first half-year of 2015 USA Export valueExport: 4.6 value billion: 4.6EUR billion EUR 10%

China 9% others 36% Saudi-Arabia 6%

Algeria Thailand 5% 2% Libanon Switzerland 2% 4% Oman 2% Japan Australia 4% 2% Nigeria Egypt 2% UAE 4% Libyia Indonesia South Korea Hong Kong 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% © ZMB

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 12 Global food chains - a challenge for risk assessors

 Consumers purchase behaviour is changing significantly due to free market economy

 Dissolution from local production and supply

 Highly competitive environment => Low price foodstuff

 Differences with regards to regulations: import regulations, border controls, statutory requirements

Do we have the right information, methods and tools for effective quality management and risk assessment?

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 13 REGULATION (EC) No 178/2002 General principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European Food Safety Authority and laying down procedures in matters of food safety

Article 8

Protection of consumers' interests

Food law shall aim at the protection of the interests of consumers and shall provide a basis for consumers to make informed choices in relation to the foods they consume. It shall aim at the prevention of:

(a) fraudulent or deceptive practices (b) the adulteration of food (c) any other practices which may mislead the consumer

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 14 Food fraud

• Probability of malpractice and white-collar crime increases with misdirected economic incentives

• Probability decreases with protective factors (bonds of moral norms)

• Food fraud highly profitable but causes only minimal damage to individual consumer or damage occurs with large time delays

• Risk-based controls fall too short to combat behavioural risk sources

N. Hirschauer, S. Scheerer, S. Zwoll; J Consumer Protection Food Safety; 2007; 2:259.271

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 15 The sophistication of food fraud

1853-1858: Swill milk scandal (New York, USA)  Uncontrolled animal feed  Adulteration of milk with water, flour, chalk, molasses, starch and other substances  Use of sick cows for milk production  Wrongful declaration  More than 8,000 consumers died

Source: Obladen 2014, Ann Nutr Metab 2008: scandal (China)  Adulteration of milk, infant formula and other foods with melamine to increase apparent protein content  290,000 children were treated for renal complications, 6 children died. Source: Hilts and Pelltier, 2009, WHO

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 16 Melamine – countries with contaminated goods

Global production of Melamine 2007: 1.2 Mio. t

Source: Hilts and Pelltier, 2009, WHO

Rapid Alert System INFOSAN - The International Food Safety Authorities Network

Established in 2004 under umbrella of the WHO

Global network of national authorities of 181 Member States

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 17 Example: Melamine scandal

day 1 First announcement of melamine- contaminated food in Europe day 14 First results from regional laboratory day 14 Information of federal ministry and first press conference by regional authority

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 18 Example: Melamine scandal

day 14, 19:39 Request of federal ministry for risk assessment day 15, 08:00 Start of risk assessment (eight scientists involved, Including toxicologists, epidemiologists, chemists, public relation) day 16, 11:00 Discussion of analysis results and aspects of risk assessment with international partner (NL) day 16, 13:00 Transfer of preliminary risk assessment to federal ministry day 16, 17:00 Press conference and announcement of management decision day 16 Press release from BfR day 17 Start of removal of concerned products and enhancement of control and monitoring activities (management activities)

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 19 Non-targeted analysis Fingerprinting

Example: Determination of melamine • Investigation of different milk powders (bought in 2008) • Analysis using 1H-NMR (400 MHz) • Identification of melamine via exogenous

signal at 5.93 ppm (NH2 groups)

lactoce TMU Milk powder contaminated with melamine DMSO Percentile plot of reference samples

CH3/CH2 fatty acids

lactose HO1-a urea TMS lactose HO1-b

7.5 5.0 2.5 ppm Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 20 Authenticity testing

Authentication: confirmation of all requirements regarding the legal product description or the detection of the fraudulent statements in view of: (i) substitution by cheaper but similar ingredients (ii) extension of food using (e. g. water, starch including exogenous material) or blending or undeclared processes (e. g. irradiation, extraction) (iii) origin, e. g. geographic, species or method of production

Esslinger, S., Riedl, J., Fauhl-Hassek, C., Food Research International, 60, 189-204 (2014)

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 21 Authenticity of food

Authenticity

Geographical Identity Origin (Composition)

Labelling

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 22 International trade relations

• WTO: since 1.1.1995 • Members: 161 Countries with 90 % of global economic power • Duties: Reduction of trade barriers and dispute settlements. New round of WTO trade negotiations was launched in Doha in November 2001 comprising both further trade liberalisation and new rule making

• Bi- and multinational trade agreements are increasing • Increase of Veterinary Certificates awarded by import countries and increase of countries assigned to authorized-for-import lists (e.g. by Russia, Brasil, China) • Increase of non-tariff trade barriers

Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 23 FEDERAL INSTITUTE FOR RISK ASSESSMENT [email protected] Tel. 0 30 Max Federal Institute Thank Andreas HenselAndreas - Dohrn - 184 12 - Str. 8 you for  - 10 - www.bfr.bund.de 0 Risk   10589 10589 Berlin Fax 0 30 for Assessment your - 184 12 - attention 47 41