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Federa L in Stitute for Risk Asse Ss Men T Food authenticity and food safety: Facing new challenges in a globalized world Dîner le 9.11.2015 (O/N) Example: Global milk trade Andreas Hensel ASSESSMENT RISK FEDERAL INSTITUTE INSTITUTE FEDERAL FOR Challenges of globalization Continuing global population growth: 7.3 billion (2015) to an expected 10.9 billion (2100) Changes in dietary behavior due to increase of purchasing power (e.g. China, India) Competition on agricultural market: Production of food renewable bioresources/energy crops Development of supply and demand on a global level encourages trade of foods which are less safe and/or have lower quality Not possible anymore to systematically control internationally traded knowledge-based services and goods Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 2 Blaise Pascal‘s Wager – Basic concept of the decision theory • You believe in god, and god exists – you will go to heaven. • You believe in god, but god does not exist – you will not be punished. •You do not believe in god, and god does not exist – you will also not be punished. • You do not believe in god, but god does exist – you will get punishment. Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 3 Pascal‘s Wager in context of risk assessment • You expect a risk and it exists – you will be rewarded (due to correct assessment) • You expect a risk but it does not exist – you will neither be rewarded nor do you lose anything. •You do not expect a risk and it does not exist – again, you will neither be rewarded nor lose anything. •You do not expect a risk but it does exist – in this case you will lose. Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 4 What is risk? Hazard… Risk… …means the potential of a …means the likelihood of an substance or situation to cause an adverse effect in an organism, adverse health effect. system or a (sub) population upon exposure to hazardous substances afrikareisen.info : Bild Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 5 Definition: Traceability Codex Alimentarius: Traceability / product tracing: the ability to follow the movement of a food through specified stages of production, processing and distribution. Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 §3 p 15 Traceability systems trace and track food packaging Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 6 The overall world milk production is increasing The largest milk producing countries EU 159 India 142 USA 93 Pakistan 40 China 37 Brasil 35 Russia 31 New Zealand 22 Million t. Turkey 18 Mexiko 12 2014 2013 2012 Ukraine 11 © ZMB Australia 10 Source: ZMB- Estimates, National Statistics, IDF, FAO. Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 7 China: Above average growth of global import market share Major importers of milk products (in Mio. t MEQ) China 9,6 Russia 5,3 China‘s USA 3,0 market share Mexiko 3,0 increased Algeria 3,0 from 4% in Japan 2,5 2008 to 16% S.-Arabia in 2014 Indonesia 1,7 Venezuela 1,3 Egypt 1,5 EU 1,4 1,4 Philippines 2014 2013 2010 Singapur 1,3 Vietnam Source: ZMB, calculations based on Australia 0,9 external trade statistics © ZMB Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 8 Example: Global trade of whole milk powder (WMP) Largest importers of WMP in 2014 1,000 t % NZ % USA % EU China 671 92 0 1 Algeria 204 28 0 61 Venezuela 143 12 0 0 In Asia, Africa and South America whole milk powder is in demand Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China 9 After Russia‘s ban of EU imports: EU dairy exports were quickly redistributed in 2014. DISTRIBUTION OF EU EXPORTS 2013 Export value: 10.2 billion EUR Russia 14% others 35% USA DISTRIBUTION OF EU EXPORTS 2014 8% USA 8% Algeria Libyia 8% China 2% 7% Libanon others 2% 35% China Australia Algeria 8% 2% 4% Egypt Switzerland 2% 4% Malaysia South Korea Russia Saudi-Arabia 2% 7% 2% 3% United Arab Oman Nigeria Indonesia Oman Hong Kong Emirates Japan 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% Libanon Saudi Arabia 2% 4% Libyia Export value: 9.4 billion EUR 2% Switzerland South Korea 4% 2% United Arab Nigeria Egypt Hong Kong Indonesia Emirates Japan 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 10 EU-Exports are overall stable, with a slight downwards trend for cheese EU: Exports of dairy products (in 1,000 t, January until July) 470 453453 2013 2014 2015 419 415 403 384 347 318 301303 247 234 239 217 205 177 149 117 92 73 Butter* cheese WMP SMP Condenced Whey Drinking milk milk powder and cream *Includes butter oil. Source: EU-Commission, Eurostat © ZMB Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 11 2015: For the first time China was second for EU imports of dairy products Distribution of EU exports in first half-year of 2015 USA Export valueExport: 4.6 value billion: 4.6EUR billion EUR 10% China 9% others 36% Saudi-Arabia 6% Algeria Thailand 5% 2% Libanon Switzerland 2% 4% Oman 2% Japan Australia 4% 2% Nigeria Egypt 2% UAE 4% Libyia Indonesia South Korea Hong Kong 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% © ZMB Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 12 Global food chains - a challenge for risk assessors Consumers purchase behaviour is changing significantly due to free market economy Dissolution from local production and supply Highly competitive environment => Low price foodstuff Differences with regards to regulations: import regulations, border controls, statutory requirements Do we have the right information, methods and tools for effective quality management and risk assessment? Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 13 REGULATION (EC) No 178/2002 General principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European Food Safety Authority and laying down procedures in matters of food safety Article 8 Protection of consumers' interests Food law shall aim at the protection of the interests of consumers and shall provide a basis for consumers to make informed choices in relation to the foods they consume. It shall aim at the prevention of: (a) fraudulent or deceptive practices (b) the adulteration of food (c) any other practices which may mislead the consumer Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 14 Food fraud • Probability of malpractice and white-collar crime increases with misdirected economic incentives • Probability decreases with protective factors (bonds of moral norms) • Food fraud highly profitable but causes only minimal damage to individual consumer or damage occurs with large time delays • Risk-based controls fall too short to combat behavioural risk sources N. Hirschauer, S. Scheerer, S. Zwoll; J Consumer Protection Food Safety; 2007; 2:259.271 Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 15 The sophistication of food fraud 1853-1858: Swill milk scandal (New York, USA) Uncontrolled animal feed Adulteration of milk with water, flour, chalk, molasses, starch and other substances Use of sick cows for milk production Wrongful declaration More than 8,000 consumers died Source: Obladen 2014, Ann Nutr Metab 2008: Melamine scandal (China) Adulteration of milk, infant formula and other foods with melamine to increase apparent protein content 290,000 children were treated for renal complications, 6 children died. Source: Hilts and Pelltier, 2009, WHO Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 16 Melamine – countries with contaminated goods Global production of Melamine 2007: 1.2 Mio. t Source: Hilts and Pelltier, 2009, WHO Rapid Alert System INFOSAN - The International Food Safety Authorities Network Established in 2004 under umbrella of the WHO Global network of national authorities of 181 Member States Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 17 Example: Melamine scandal day 1 First announcement of melamine- contaminated food in Europe day 14 First results from regional laboratory day 14 Information of federal ministry and first press conference by regional authority Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 18 Example: Melamine scandal day 14, 19:39 Request of federal ministry for risk assessment day 15, 08:00 Start of risk assessment (eight scientists involved, Including toxicologists, epidemiologists, chemists, public relation) day 16, 11:00 Discussion of analysis results and aspects of risk assessment with international partner (NL) day 16, 13:00 Transfer of preliminary risk assessment to federal ministry day 16, 17:00 Press conference and announcement of management decision day 16 Press release from BfR day 17 Start of removal of concerned products and enhancement of control and monitoring activities (management activities) Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 19 Non-targeted analysis Fingerprinting Example: Determination of melamine • Investigation of different milk powders (bought in 2008) • Analysis using 1H-NMR (400 MHz) • Identification of melamine via exogenous signal at 5.93 ppm (NH2 groups) lactoce TMU Milk powder contaminated with melamine DMSO Percentile plot of reference samples CH3/CH2 fatty acids lactose HO1-a urea TMS lactose HO1-b 7.5 5.0 2.5 ppm Prof.
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