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Is left/right still the ‘super glue’? The role of left/right ideology and issues in electoral politics in Western and East Central Europe

Walczak, A.

Publication date 2012

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Citation for published version (APA): Walczak, A. (2012). Is left/right still the ‘super glue’? The role of left/right ideology and issues in electoral politics in Western and East Central Europe.

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Appendices

113

APPENDIX I Full Results of the First-Stage Analysis for Voters with High and Low Level of Sophistication (Chapter 1)

Tables below show the unstandardized coefficients of left/right distance and 12 issues which have been obtained in the first-stage regression for voters with a high and a low level of political sophistication. In this analysis, propensities to vote for political parties in each country were regressed on voters’ distance to political parties in left/right terms and on voters’ attitudes towards 12 issues, controlled by gender, social class, religion, education and age. 95% confidence intervals are provided in brackets.

High Sophistication

Country LR Enterprise Ownership Intervention Redistributi Marriage Abortion Order Authority Family Adaptation Decrease of EU R² Distance on of Immigration Integratio Immigrants n Austria -.4 .16 .46 .18 .35 .07 .25 .17 .19 .05 .16 .27 .26 .29 (-.44, -.35) (.015, .31) (.25, .68) (.003, .35) (.18, .51) (-.08, .21) (- (.1, .3) (.02, .35) (- (.04, .29) (.15, .39) (.1, .42) .007, .51) .13, .23) Belgium -.37 .18 .31 .44 .36 .56 .6 .22 .15 .17 .23 .3 .47 .35 Flanders (-.46, -.28) (-.14, .51) (.02, .6) (.03, .84) (.03, .69) (.28, .84) (.15, 1.05) (- (-.14, .44) (-.25, .6) (-.08, .55) (.06, .53) (.21, .73) .05, .4 9) Belgium -.45 .68 .47 .72 .43 .33 .005 .49 .56 .57 .24 -.06 .46 .35 Wallonia (-.6, -.3) (.23, 1.12) (.07, .87) (.19, 1.24) (.03, .83) (-.06, .72) (-.38, .39) (-.05, (.023, 1.09) (.21, .93) (-.46, .94) (-.51, .39) (-.12, 1.04) 1.04) Bulgaria -.29 .41 .4 .42 .17 .11 .51 .34 .65 .67 .58 .86 .83 .27 (-.34, -.23) (.11, .71) (.13, .67) (-.13, .97) (-.24, .58) (-.11, .35) (.19, .84) (- (.18, 1.11) (.26, (.2, .96) (.52, 1.2) (.48, 1.19) .14, .8 1.07) 2) Cyprus -.46 .38 .31 .76 .47 .47 .72 .69 .46 .34 .35 .22 .55 .3 (-.52, -.39) (.04, .71) (.07, .55) (.38, 1.14) (.14, .79) (.14, .79) (.36, 1.09) (.35, (.14, .78) (- (-.19, .89) (.09, .54) (.23, .87) 1.02) .044, .73) Czech -.4 .46 .34 .38 .21 .37 .65 .14 .28 .4 .002 .12 .45 .33 Republic (-.46, -.34) (.28, .63) (.15, .53) (-.02, .77) (- (.11, .62) (.26, 1.03) (- (-.07, .63) (.09, .71) (-.41, .41) (-.13, .37) (.19, .72) .00003, .41) .18, .4 7) Denmark -.53 .34 .42 .49 .3 .15 .39 .12 .08 .22 .2 .27 .32 .37 (-.59, -.47) (.22, .47) (.26, .58) (.14, .82) (.11, .49) (-.06, .37) (.13, .65) (- (-.09, .25) (- (.04, .36) (.13, .41) (.14, .5) .03, .2 .001, .44) 7) Estonia -.37 .45 .33 .64 .53 .5 .44 .53 .28 .56 .48 .34 .3 .3 (-.43, -.3) (.12, .79) (.08, .58) (.33, .96) (.28, .79) (.15, .84) (.0004, .8 (.2, .9) (-.14, .7) (.24, .88) (.15, .8) (-.09, .77) (.05, .55) 7) Finland -.46 .15 .35 .34 .39 .22 .25 .29 .21 .14 .28 .2 .59 .33 (-.5, -.41) (-.02, .33) (.17, .53) (.1, .58) (.24, .54) (.08, .36) (.05, .45) (.1, .4) (.04, .38) (-.1, .4) (.07, .49) (.06, .34) (.41, .76) France -.53 .26 .28 .43 .37 .16 -.14 .17 -.09 .07 .17 .11 .11 .39 114

(-.6, -.47) (.08, .44) (.09, .47) (.001, .86) (.19, .55) (.01, .31) (-.49, .2) (-.1, 3) (-.35, .16) (-.2, .34) (-.05, .27) (-.05, .27) (-.19, .42) Country LR Enterprise Ownership Intervention Redistributi Marriage Abortion Order Authority Family Adaptation Decrease of EU R² Distance on of Immigration Integratio Immigrants n Germany -.6 .18 .33 .13 .45 -.006 .34 .23 .14 .25 .19 .28 .21 .35 (-.67, -.54) (- (.13, .53) (-.1, .37) (.28, .63) (-.24, .23) (.02, .67) (- (.-.09, .38) (- (-.07, .46) (.05, .51) (-.04, .47) .0003, .35) .02, .4 .01, .52) 7) Greece -.43 .39 .28 .41 .54 .23 .47 .11 .13 .36 .08 .11 .74 .29 (-.49, -.37) (.24, .54) (.03, .54) (.07, .74) (.29, .79) (.05, .41) (.19, .75) (- (-.05, .31) (.08, .64) (-.13, .31) (-.1, .33) (.31, 1.17) .09, .3 2) Hungary -.47 .5 .27 .65 .23 .22 .42 .39 .11 .18 .16 .4 .33 .34 (-.52, -.43) (.18, .83) (.02, .52) (.27, 1.03) (-.12, .59) (.005, .44) (.09, .75) (- (-.19, .42) (- (-.21, .54) (.15, .65) (- .05, .8 .17, .53) .005, .67) 4) Ireland -.43 .31 .21 .65 .49 .24 .54 .06 .22 .36 .07 .37 .89 .22 (-.49, -.36) (.02, .59) (-.12, .54) (.26, 1.04) (.19, .79) (-.19, .67) (.19, .88) (- (-.07, .51) (- (-.33, .47) (.07, .67) (.53, 1.24) .33, .4 .07, .79) 5) Italy -.46 .06 .33 .78 .41 .15 .49 .31 -.08 .13 .21 .1 .23 .37 (-.51,-.4) (-.15, .27) (.11, .54) (.34, 1.22) (.2, .6) (-.02, .32) (.24, .73) (.01, (-.29, .13) (- -.0001, .42) (-.08, .28) (-.03, .49) 61) .12, .38) Latvia -.34 .25 .4 .32 .54 .38 .5 .53 .68 .41 .42 .35 .63 .27 (-.4,, -.28) (-.09, .59) (.06, .73) (-.09, .73) (.16, .92) (.003, .76) (.2, .81) (.19, . (.35, 1.01) (.04, .77) (-.09, .95) (-.05, .75) (.3, .95) 86) Lithuania -.23 .52 .31 .65 .36 .57 .36 .63 .34 .63 .48 .17 .57 .23 (-.29, -.17) (.2, .83) (-.09, .72) (.32, .97) (.07, .66) (.19, .92) (.03, .7) (.21, (-.004, .68) (.27, (.11, .85) (-.17, .52) (.21, .93) 1.04) 1.00) Luxembourg -.56 .5 .48 .52 .56 .36 .38 .03 .55 .67 .32 .11 .29 .26 (-.62, -.51) (.16, .84) (.09, .86) (-.11, 1.15) (.29, .83) (.11, .6) (.12, .64) (- (.22, .89) (.22, (.01, .62) (-.21, .45) (-.11, .7) .28, .3 1.12) 5) Malta -.33 .36 .31 1.004 .61 1.007 .4 .87 .6 -.04 .64 .64 .46 .3 (-.43, -.23) (-.18, .92) (.03, .59) (.41, 1.6) (.18, 1.03) (.41, 1.6) (-.3, 1.11) (.29, (-.04, 1.23) (- (-.18, 1.48) (.26, 1.02) (.19, .74) 1.45) .68, .61) Netherlands -.49 .24 .26 .37 .63 .24 .23 .25 .23 .15 -.11 .4 .41 .33 (-.53, -.44) (.03, .44) (-.06, .59) (.08, .66) (.48, .77) (.06, .41) (.06, .39) (.06, . (.04, .43) (- (-.29, .08) (.23, .57) (.21, .61) 43) .11, .41) Poland -.27 .46 .56 .24 .65 .28 .44 .06 .22 .31 .79 .32 .53 .35 (-.34, -.2) (.09, .84) (.11, 1.01) (-.35, .84) (.16, 1.13) (- (.19, .69) (- (-.39, .83) (- (.45, 1,.13) (-.07, .72) (.18, .89) .064, .63) .27, .4 .04, .66) 1) Portugal -.56 .42 .22 .41 .41 .23 .31 .26 .68 .02 .14 .22 .62 .32 (-.62, -.5) (.18, .67) (-.08, .53) (.03, .8) (.09, .72) (-.07, .54) (.11, .51) (- (.3, 1.05) (- (-.2, .48) (-.21, .66) (.33, .9) .1, .62 .42, .46) ) Romania -.24 .48 .48 .49 .35 .28 .1 .05 .51 .29 .42 .6 .49 .35 (-.32, -.16) (.08, .89) (.21, .75) (.06, .91) (.003, .7) (-.08, .65) (-.39, .6) (- (.19, .83) (-.11, .7) (.03, .81) (.27, .92) (.11, .87) .5, .5)

115

Country LR Enterprise Ownership Intervention Redistributi Marriage Abortion Order Authority Family Adaptation Decrease of EU R² Distance on of Immigration Integratio Immigrants n Slovakia -.3 .43 .17 .74 .29 .44 .37 1.08 .45 .34 .65 .3 .48 .25 (-.34, -.24) (.2, .67) (-.05, .39) (.41, 1.07) (.05, .53) (.17, .71) (.11, .63) (.48, (.05, .85) (.05, .63) (.29, 1.007) (.04, .56) (.12, .84) 1.67) Slovenia -.3 .47 .65 .54 .45 .18 .24 .25 .17 .26 .21 .15 .51 .32 (-.35, -.25) (.23, .72) (.24, 1.05) (.23, .84) (.09, .81) (.002, .36) (.09, .39) (- (-.07, .41) (.08, .44) (-.05, .47) (-.06, .35) (.79) .1, .5) Spain -.24 .26 .29 .68 .47 .17 .35 .32 .21 -.04 .17 .23 .78 .19 (-.27, -.18) (.09, .42) (.08, .49) (.27, 1.08) (.26, .68) (- (.19, .52) (.13, . (-.05, .47) (- (-.11, .45) (.01, .45) (.39, 1.18) .004, .35) 51) .29, .21) Sweden -.45 .24 .26 .17 .42 .15 .28 .25 .09 .41 .14 .41 .35 .41 (-.49, -.41) (.13, .34) (.14, .37) (-.07, .41) (.32, .51) (-.05, .34) (.07, .49) (.05, . (-.11, .29) (.15, .66) (-.03, .31) (.21, .6) (.18, .52) 45) UK -.36 .14 .53 .32 .31 .17 .33 .27 .18 .36 .06 .08 .43 .32 (-.41, -.31) (-.02, .3) (.35, .72) (.08, .56) (.13, .49) (- (-.04, .7) (.08, . (-.02, .38) (.04, .68) (-.12, .26) (-.08, .25) (.29, .58) .008, .36) 46)

Low Sophistication

Country LR Enterprise Ownership Intervention Redistributi Marriage Abortion Order Authority Family Adaptation Decrease of EU R² Distance on of Immigration Integratio Immigrants n Austria -.2 .3 .29 .53 -.33 .15 .67 .11 .43 .39 .47 .16 .41 .28 (-.31, -.1) (.09, .7) (-.03, .61) (.11, .95) (-.73, .66) (-.21, .51) (.24, 1.09) (- (.08, .77) (.03, .76) (.05, .89) (-.23, .55) (.15, .67) .36, .5 9) Belgium -.18 .36 .34 .45 -.39 .11 .64 .08 .41 .4 .42 .19 .39 .28 Flanders (-.28, -.08) (-.02, .74) (.03, .64) (.07, .89) (-.78, -.001) (-.22, .44) (.23, 1.04) (- (.06, .76) (.05, .76) (.01, .82) (-.18, .56) (.11, .67) .39, .5 6) Belgium -.26 .62 .92 .29 .33 .49 .27 .35 .34 .51 .09 .66 .37 .47 Wallonia (-.43, -.08) (.18, 1.07) (.32, 1.5) (-.22, .8) (-.46, 1.12) (.12, .85) (-.17, .71) (- (.003, .68) (.05, .98) (-.48, .66) (.21, 1.11) (-.04, .78) .07, .7 7) Bulgaria -.21 .78 .47 .66 .74 .53 .09 .84 .72 .46 .45 .92 .56 .25 (-.28, -.15) (.39, 1.17) (.15, .79) (.35, .97) (.41, 1.08) (.15, .92) (-.29, .49) (.33, (.42, 1.03) (.08, .83) (.03, .88) (.59, 1.26) (.2, .93) 1.35) Cyprus -.46 .42 .61 .7 .48 .56 .41 .37 .53 .59 .72 .68 .68 .28 (-.51, -.41) (.04, .8) (.28, .94) (.24, 1.16) (.16, .8) (.21, .91) (-.17, .99) (- (.08, .98) (.07, 1.1) (.35, 1.09) (.37, .98) (.32, 1.04) .07, .8 2) Czech -.35 .58 .35 .76 .4 .48 .58 .56 .06 .04 .47 .07 .55 .28 Republic (-.41, -.28) (.37, .79) (.12, .58) (.36, 1.16) (.18, .61) (.2, .75) (.27, .88) (.17, . (-.31, .44) (-.42, .51) (.001, .95) (-.32, .46) (.25, .85) 96) Denmark -.45 .33 .43 -.08 .36 .14 .4 .12 .32 .21 -.07 .42 .29 .3 116

(-.52, -.39) (.17, .48) (.17, .69) (-.44, .27) (.1, .62) (-.18, .47) (-.26, (- (.08, .55) (-.15, .57) (-.25, .1) (.25, .58) (.04, .54) 1.07) .1, .3) Country LR Enterprise Ownership Intervention Redistributi Marriage Abortion Order Authority Family Adaptation Decrease of EU R² Distance on of Immigration Integratio Immigrants n Estonia -.23 .74 .41 .45 .49 .35 .66 .06 .39 .73 .53 .45 .46 .38 (-.34, -.12) (.007, 1.47) (-.06, .87) (-.08, .98) (-.005, .98) (-.08, .79) (.25, 1.08) (- (-.01, .79) (.17, (.11, .96) (-.03, .94) (.09, .83) .33, .4 1.29) 4) Finland -.43 .22 .15 .67 .38 .33 .49 .22 .62 .54 .27 .43 .39 .29 (-.5, -.37) (-.6, .5) (-.12, .41) (.35, .99) (.18, .58) (.08, .57) (.18, .81) (- (.41, .84) (.18, .89) (-.02, .56) (.19, .67) (.18, .61) .08, .5 2)

France -.46 .46 .22 .78 .54 .12 .68 .56 .09 .42 .18 .14 .65 .3 (-.52, -.4) (.23, .7) (-.08, .51) (.2, 1.35) (.32, .76) (-.18, .43) (.28, 1.07) (.3, .8) (-.21, .39) (.05, .79) (-.04, .41) (-.08, .36) (.17, 1.13)

Germany -.43 .36 .44 .23 .45 .2 .55 .19 .2 .08 .39 .34 .72 .28 (-.51, -.36) (.07, .56) (.14, .73) (-.11, .57) (.13, .77) (-.09, .5) (.16, .95) (- (-.18,. 58) (-.27, .44) (.05, .75) (.02, .65) (.44, .99) .17, .5 6) Greece -.38 .36 .81 .4 .49 .18 .21 .27 .22 .39 .07 .22 .63 .26 (-.44, -.32) (.13, .59) (.46, 1.17) (-.1,.9) (.19, .8) (-.07, .43) (-.05, .47) (- (.03, .39) (-.14, .89) (-.22, .37) (-.05, .48) (.36, .9) .02, .5 6) Hungary -.46 .37 .32 .4 .75 .49 .14 .44 .25 .37 .4 .39 .82 .28 (-.52, -.39) (-.11, .86) (-.26, .91) (-.2,1.01) (.42, 1.07) (.09, .89) (-.37, .65) (.08, . (-.22, .72) (- (-.17, .97) (-.06, .84) (.37, 1.27) 79) .005, .75) Ireland -.35 .64 .63 .54 .82 .42 .52 .34 .42 .73 .45 .35 .55 .23 (-.42, -.27) (.25, 1.04) (.26, 1.005) (.19, .89) (.53, 1.1) (-.06, .9) (.17, .87) (- (.07, .76) (.06, 1.4) (-.05, .95) (-.06, .75) (.05, 1.03) .18, .8 7) Italy -.45 .27 .41 .53 .46 .3 .37 .15 .28 .33 .18 .21 .55 .36 (-.51, -.39) (.03, .51) (.16, .66) (.19, .85) (.24, .69) (.05, .54) (-.06, .8) (- (-.03, .61) (.02, .65) (-.06, .43) (-.01, .43) (.32, .79) .11, .4 2) Latvia -.23 .77 .48 .41 .43 .27 .43 .18 .35 .21 .32 .15 .6 .23 (-.3, -.17) (.33, 1.21) (-.02, .99) (.02, .81) (.12, .75) (-.06, .6) (.17, .68) (- (.04, .65) (-.08, .51) (.06, .58) (-.23, .53) (.28, .91) .2, .56 ) Lithuania -.25 .62 .47 .49 .49 .43 .65 .48 .67 .32 .2 .2 .85 .21 (-.31, -.19) (.28, .96) (.16, .78) (.1, .89) (.06, .92) (-.05, .92) (.22, 1.09) (.02, . (.31, 1.03) (- (-.22, .63) (-.26, .67) (.6, 1.1) 94) .001, .63) Luxembourg -.44 .73 -.02 .61 .2 .1 .62 -.001 .38 .47 .38 .47 .67 .22 (-.52, -.37) (.32, 1.15) (-.62, .59) (.19, 1.03) (-.27, .67) (-.35, .55) (.19, 1.04) (- (-.07, .83) (.12, .81) (.007, .76) (.03, .92) (.28, 1.05) .41, .4 1) Malta -.3 -.72 .45 .75 .61 .57 .43 .18 .75 .4 .73 .29 .38 .31 (-.41, -.18) (.04, 1.4) (-.04, .95) (.18, 1.3) (.17, 1.06) (.1, 1.03) (.08, .78) (-.98, (-.42, 1.92) (-.2, 1.01) (.06, 1.41) (-.39, .98) (-.01, .78) 1.36)

117

Netherlands -.41 .21 .6 .58 .84 .28 .2 .31 .05 .4 .26 .31 .54 .32 (-.47, -.36) (-.05, .47) (.36, .84) (.23, .93) (.54, 1.14) (.08, .48) (- (.04, . (-.23, .33) (.11, .69) (.03, .5) (.11, .51) (.29, .79) .0004, .4) 57) Country LR Enterprise Ownership Intervention Redistributi Marriage Abortion Order Authority Family Adaptation Decrease of EU R² Distance on of Immigration Integratio Immigrants n Poland -.37 .36 -.18 .18 .11 .38 .52 .59 .33 .21 .39 .06 .63 .21 (-.42, -.31) (-.003, .73) (-.81, .44) (-.37, .73) (-.29, .53) (.07, .69) (.27, .77) (.22, . (-.03, .69) (-.16, .57) (-.007, .78) (-.37, .49) (.19, 1.08) 97) Portugal -.42 .48 .73 .58 .74 .25 .51 .43 .59 .33 .44 .32 .57 .25 (-.5, -.39) (.14, .82) (.37, 1.1) (.21, .97) (.35, 1.13) (-.13, .64) (.22, .8) (-.23, (.12, 1.06) (- (-.04, .92) (-.02, .67) (.02, 1.13) 1.09) .145, .82) Romania -.27 .84 .45 .68 .64 .22 .77 .69 .2 .54 .72 .47 .88 .19 (-.33, -.21) (.43, 1.25) (.1, .8) (.32, 1.04) (.26, 1.02) (-.23,.68) (.28, 1.26) (.23, (-.7, 1.11) (.04, (.34, 1.1) (.02, .91) (.45, 1.3) 1.16) 1.04) Slovakia -.2 .58 .55 1.003 .56 .31 .65 .49 .68 .44 .29 .46 .69 .19 (-.27, -.14) (.23, .94) (.27, .83) (.49, 1.51) (.22, .9) (-.1, .73) (.09, 1.21) (.08, . (.3, 1.06) (.08, .8) (-.16, .75) (.15, .78) (.34, 1.05) 89)

Slovenia -.21 .38 .72 .27 .55 .23 .36 .53 .31 .33 .26 .37 .65 .23 (-.27, -.15) (-.01, .78) (.26, 1.18) (-.11, .65) (.26, .85) (.009, .46) (.14, .59) (.19, . (-.01, .63) (.06, .6) (-.001, .53) (.07, .66) (.26, 1.05) 87)

Spain -.16 .35 .7 .78 .52 .22 .5 .53 .36 .56 .31 .02 .77 .16 (-.2, -.12) (.11, .6) (.43, .98) (.43, 1.13) (.08, .97) (-.11, .54) (.26, .74) (.25, . (.09, .63) (.12, .99) (-.06, .68) (-.43, .47) (.35, 1.18) 81) Sweden -.47 .31 .29 .15 .37 .29 .39 .3 .3 .24 .15 .44 .45 .42 (-.53, -.41) (.13, .5) (.08, .51) (-.19, .5) (.2, .53) (.03, .56) (.11, .69) (.06, . (.1, .5) (-.08, .57) (-.06, .35) (.2, .68) (.22, .68) 55) UK -.3 .44 .32 .4 .46 .33 .69 .25 .36 .44 .17 .16 .61 .2 (-.35, -.25) (.24, .65) (.06, .59) (.03, .77) (.21, .73) (-.02, .7) (.37, (.01, . (.11, .61) (.03, .85) (-.08, .43) (-.1, .41) (.42, .81) 1.004) 49)

118

APPENDIX II Regression Results of the Relationship between Ideological Constraint and the Effect of Left/Right on Party Preferences for Voters with High and Low Level of Sophistication (Chapter 1, Figure 1.4)

High Sophistication Low Sophistication Outcome Coefficient Robust Outcome Coefficient Robust var.: Effect standard var.: Effect standard of left/right error of left/right error distance on distance on party party preferences preferences Ideological .45*** .15 Ideological .55* .27 constraint (.15, .75) constraint (-.01, 1.11) (Adj-R² of (Adj-R² of Issues) Issues) _cons .4*** .03 _cons .33*** .03 (.33, .47) (.26, .39) No. of No. of observations: 28 observations: 28 F statistic: 9.3 F statistic: 5.34 Prob>F: .005 Prob>F: .02 R²: .2 R²: .2

Notes: Appendix II presents results from a linear regression where the absolute value of the effect of the left/right distance on party preferences is the outcome variable. The explanatory variable is ideological constraint i.e. the value of the adjusted R² obtained in a linear regression where voters’ left/right self- placement was regressed on voters’ attitudes towards issues (Enterprise, Ownership, Intervention, Redistribution, Same-Sex Marriage, Abortion, Law & Order, Authority, Family, Adaptation of Immigrants, Decrease of Immigration and EU Integration). The adjusted R² is a measure of how well voters’ attitudes towards issues predict voters’ left/right self-placement i.e. how well left/right structures attitudes towards those issues. The outcome variable has been obtained in the first-stage analysis, where propensities to vote for political parties have been regressed on left/right distance and controlled for socio-structural variables i.e. gender, social class, education, religion and age of voters. The second-stage analysis contains 28 observations (for each level of sophistication) which represent the political systems of the European Union. In order to account for the fact that we perform a linear regression on coefficients, we use White’s heteroscedastic consistent standard errors. *** significant at p < .01, ** significant at p<.05, * significant at p < .1 (one- tailed); 95% confidence intervals are reported in brackets.

119

APPENDIX III Results of Bivariate Regressions (Chapter 2)

Impact of Long- and Short-Term Determinants of Party Preferences in Western Europe across Generations (Bivariate Regressions)

Notes: This figure displays the effects of long- and short-term factors on party preferences in Western Europe for eight generations of voters. These effects have been obtained in bivariate regressions i.e. propensities to vote have been regressed on each explanatory variable separately.

120

Impact of Long- and Short-Term Determinants of Party Preferences in East Central Europe across Generations (Bivariate Regressions) 

Notes: This figure displays the effects of long- and short-term factors on party preferences in East Central Europe for eight generations of voters. These effects have been obtained in bivariate regressions i.e. propensities to vote have been regressed on each explanatory variable separately.

121

APPENDIX IV List of Political Parties Included in the Analysis in Chapter 3

Party Name (Original) Party Name in English Austria Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ) Social Democratic Party of Austria Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP) Austrian People’s Party Die Grünen – Die Grüne Alternative The Greens (GRÜNE) Hans Peter Martin List of Hans Peter Martin Junge Liberale (JL) Young Liberals Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (KPÖ) Communist Party of Austria Bündnis Zukunft Österreich (BZÖ) Alliance for the Future of Austria Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) Freedom Party of Austria

Belgium Centre Démocrate Humaniste (CDH) Human Democratic Centre Mouvement Réformateur (MR) Reform Movement Parti Socialiste (PS) Socialist Party Écologistes (ECOLO) Ecolo Christen-Demokratisch & Vlaams (CD&V) Christian Democratic and Flemish Party Vlaamse Liberalen en Demokraten (VLD) Flemish Liberals and Democrats Socialistische Partij-Anders (SPA) Socialist Party Different Vlaams Belang (VB) Flemish Interest De Vlaamse Groenen (GROEN) The Flemish Greens Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (NVA) New Flemish Alliance Lijst Dedecker (LDD) List Dedecker

Bulgaria Natsionalno Obedinenie Ataka (ATAKA) National Union Attack Grazhdani za Evropeysko Razvitie na Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria Balgariya (GERB) Red, Zakonnost, Spravedlivost (RZ) Order, Lawfulness & Justice SDS-DSB Blue Coalition

Cyprus Anorthotiko Komma Ergazomenou Laou Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL) Demokratikos Synagermos (DISY) Democratic Rally Dimokratiko Komma (DIKO) Democratic Party Kinima Sosialdimokraton (EDEK) Movement for Social Democracy

Czech Republic ýeská Strana Sociálne Demokratická (ýSSD) Czech Social Democratic Party KĜesĢanská a demokratická unie – Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak ýeskoslovenská strana lidová (KDU-ýSL) People’s Party Komunistická Strana ýech a Moravy (KSýM) Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia Obþanská Demokratická Strana (ODS) Civic Democratic Party Strana Zelených (SZ) Green Party

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Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Christian Democratic Union of Germany/ Deutschlands/Christlich Soziale Union Christian Social Union of Germany Deutschlands (CDU/CSU) Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) B90/Die Grünen (GRÜNE) Alliance 90 / The Greens Die Linke (LINKE) The Left Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) Free Democratic Party

Denmark Socialdemokraterne (S) Social Democrats Det Radikale Venstre (RV) Radical Left De Konservative Folkeparti (KF) Conservative People’s Party Dansk Folkeparti (SF) Danish People’s Party Venstre - Danmarks Liberale Parti (V) Left – Denmark’s Liberal Party

Estonia Eesti Reformierakond (RE) Estonian Reform Party Eesti Keskerakond (K) Estonian Centre Party Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL) Pro Patria & Res Publica Union Sotsiaaldemokratlik Erakond (SDE) Social Democratic Party Erakond Estimaa Rohelised (ER) Greens of Estonia Estimaa Rahvaliit (ERL) People’s Union of Estonia

Finland Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (SDP) Social Democratic Party of Finland Suomen Keskusta (KESK) Finnish Centre Kansallinen Kokoous (KOK) National Coalition Party Vasemmistoliitto (VAS) Left Alliance Vihreä Liitto (VIHR) Green Alliance Suomen Ruotsalainen Kansanpuolue (SRK) Swedish People’s Party in Finland Suomen Kristillisdemokraatit (KD) Finnish Christian Democrats Perussuomalaiset (PS) True Finns

France Extrême gauche (Nouveau Parti Extreme Left (New Anticapitalist Party/Workers’ Anticapitaliste/Lutte Ouvrière) Struggle) Europe Écologie European Ecologists Parti Socialiste (PS) Socialist Party Mouvment Démocrate (MoDem) Democratic Movement Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP) Union for a Popular Movement Front National (FN) National Front Le part de gauche/Le front de gauche Left Party/Left Front Greece Nea Dimokratia (ND) New Democracy Panellinio Sosialistiko Kinima (PASOK) Panhellenic Socialist Movement Laikos Orthodoxos Sunagermos (LAOS) Popular Orthodox Rally Oikologi Prasinoi (OP) Ecologist Greens

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Synaspismos tis Rizospastikis Aristeras Coalition of the Left (SYRIZA)

Hungary Magyar Polgári Szövetség (FIDESZ) Hungarian Civic Union Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom (JOBBIK) Movement for a Better Hungary Magyar Demokrata Fórum (MDF) Hungarian Democratic Forum Magyar Szocialista Párt (MSZP) Hungarian Socialist Party Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége (SZDSZ) Union of Free Democrats

Ireland Fianna Fail (FF) Soldiers of Destiny Fine Gael (FG) Family of the Irish Labour Party (LAB) Labour Party

Italy Il Popolo della Liberta (PDL) The People of Freedom Partido Democratico (PS) Democratic Party Italia dei Valori (IDV) Italy of Values Unione di Centro (UDC) Union of the Centre Rifondazione-Communisti Italiani Communist Refoundation Party/Party of Italian Communists

Latvia Tautas Partija (TP) People’s Party Zaƺo un Zemnieku SavienƯba (ZZS) Union of Greens and Farmers Jaunas Laiks (JL) New Era Party Latvijas Pirma Partija-Latvijas Cels (LPP/LC) Latvia’s First Party – Latvia’s Way SaskaƼas Centrs (SC) Harmony Centre TƝvzemei un BrƯvƯbai (TB/LNNK) For Fatherland and Freedom Par CilvƝka TiesƯbƗm VienotƗ LatvijƗ For Human Rights in United Latvia (PCTVL) PilsoniskƗ SavienƯba (PS) Civic Union SabiedrƯba Citai Politikai (SCP) Society for Other Politics

Lithuania Tơvynơs Sąjunga - Lietuvos Krikšþionys Homeland Union - Lithuanian Christian Demokratai (TS-LKP) Democracy Lietuvos Socialdemokratǐ Partija (LSPP) Social Democratic Party of Lithuania Lietuvos Respublikos Liberalǐ Sąjnjdis Liberal Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LRLS) Darbo Partija (DP) Labour Party Liberalǐ ir Centro Sąjunga (LiCS) Liberal and Centre Union Lietuvos Lenkǐ Rinkimǐ Akcija (LLRA) Election Action of Lithuanian Poles Lietuvos Valstieþiǐ Liaudininkǐ Sąjunga Lithuanian Peasant Popular Union (LVLS)

Luxembourg Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Arbechterpartei Luxembourg Socialist Workers’ Party

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(LSAP) Chrëschtlech Sozial Vollekspartei (CSV) Christian Social People’s Party Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ADR) Alternative Democratic Reform Party Déi Lénk (LENK) The Left Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (KPL) Communist Party of Luxembourg

Malta Partit Nazzjonalista (PN) Nationalist Party Partit Labourista (PL) Labour Party Alternattiva Demokratika (AD) Democratic Alternative Azzjoni Nazzjonali (AN) Nationalist Action

The Netherlands Partij van de Arbeid (PvdA) Labour Party Christen Democratisch Appel (CDA) Christian Democratic Appeal Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) Democraten 66 (D66) Democrats 66 Groen Links (GL) Green Left Partij voor de Dieren (PvdD) Party for the Animals Socialistische Partij (SP) Socialist Party Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) Freedom Party

Poland Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (PSL) Polish People’s Party KKW Porozumienie dla PrzyszáoĞci Election Committee Agreement for the Future - Centrolewica Centre Left Platforma Obywatelska (PO) Civic Platform Prawo i SprawiedliwoĞü (PiS) Law and Justice

Portugal Bloco de Esquerda (BE) Left Bloc Partido Popular (CSD-PP) People’s Party Coligaçao Democática Unitária (CDU) Democratic Unity Coalition Partido Socialista (PS) Socialist Party Partido Social Democrata (PSD) Social Democratic Party

Romania Partidul Democrat Liberal (PD-L) Democratic Liberal Party Partidul National Liberal (PNL) National Liberal Party Uniunea Democrata Maghiara din Romania Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) Partidul NaĠional ğărănesc Creútin Democrat Christian-Democratic National Peasant’ Party (PNTCD) Partidul România Mare (PRM) Greater Romania Party

Slovakia ďudová strana - Hnutie za Demokratické People’s Party – Movement for a Democratic Slovensko (LS-HZDS) Slovakia

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Smer – Sociálna Demokracia (SMER) Direction – Social Democracy Slovenská Demokratická a KresĢanská Unia - Slovak Democratic and Christian Union – Demokratická Strana (SDKU) Democratic Party Strana Maćarskej Koalície - Magyar Koalíció Party of the Hungarian Coalition Pártja (SMK-MKP) KresĢanskodemokratické Hnutie (KDH) Christian Democratic Movement Slovenská Národná Strana (SNS) Slovak National Party Slobodné fórum (SF) Free Forum

Slovenia Demokratiþna Stranka Upokojencev Slovenije Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) Liberalna Demokracija Slovenije (LDS) Liberal Democracy of Slovenia SlovenskaLljudska Stranka (SLS) Slovenian People’s Party Slovenska Nacionalna Stranka (SNS) Slovenian National Party Socialni Demokrati (SD) Social Democrats ZARES For Real Nova Slovenija – Kršþanska ljudska stranka New Slovenia – Christian People’s Party (NSi) Stranka mladih - Zeleni Evrope (SMS-Zeleni) Youth Party – European Greens

Spain Partido Popular (PP) People’s Party Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party Union, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) Union, Progress and Democracy

Sweden Vänsterpartiet (V) Left Party Socialdemokratiska Arbetarpartiet (S) Social Democratic Workers’ Party Centerpartiet (C) Centre Party Folkpartiet Liberalerna (FP) Liberal People’s Party Moderata Samlingspartiet (M) Moderate Rally Party Kristdemokraterna (KD) Christian Democrats Miljöpartiet de Gröna (MP) Environment Party Sverigedemokraterna (SD) Swedish Democrats

United Kingdom Labour Party (L) Conservative Party (CP) Liberal Democrats (LD) Scottish National Party (SNP) Plaid Cymru (PC) UK Independence Party (UKIP) British National Party (BNP) Green Party (GP) 

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APPENDIX VPosition of MEP Candidates and Voters in the Two-Dimensional Space Per Country (Chapter 3)

Western Europe

  









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   East Central Europe





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 Notes: The graphs show the position of parties and voters of these parties in the two-dimensional space with the socio-economic dimension (horizontal axis) and libertarian-authoritarian dimension (vertical axis). The posittion of parties reflects the mean of stances of MEP candidates of these parties on each dimension, while the position of voters is the mean of stances of party voters. Only voters with the highest level of sophistication have been depicted in the graphs as for this group we find a two-dimensional attitude structure. Under each graph we provide the correlation of both dimensions at the aggregate level. We denote the belonging of each party by party family with the following symbols: ƕ Green ƒ Radical left + Social democrats • Liberal ¸ Christian democrats ᒿ Conservative * Radical right ǻ Agrarian × Ethnic/Regional

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Appendix VI Full Results of the Analysis of Attitude Congruence between Voters and Party Candidates in EP Elections (Chapter 4) Model I Model II Model III Model IV (Socio-economic domain) (Libertarian-authoritarian (Immigration) (EU Integration) domain) Model I A Model I B Model II A Model II B Model III A Model III B Model IV A Model IV B Individual-level variables Education .01 (.003)*** .02 (.004)*** .03 (.003)*** .02 (.003)*** .03 (.005)*** .03 (.005)*** .02 (.008)*** .02 (.008)*** Occupation (ref. never worked) Professional & .02 (.02) .03 (.02) .03 (.02) .03 (.02) -.01 (.03) -.002 (.03) .02 (.05) .03 (.05) technical Higher .02 (.03) .04 (.03) .03 (.02) .03 (.02) -.07 (.04)* -.06 (.04) .01 (.06) .01 (.01) administrative Clerical .03 (.02) .04 (.02) .04 (.02)** .03 (.02) -.03 (.03) -.02 (.03) .002 (.05) .01 (.05) Sales .01 (.02) .01 (.03) .01 (.02) -.01 (.02) -.07 (.04)* -.08 (.04)** -.04 (.05) -.03 (.06) Service -.01 (.02) -.01 (.02) .03 (.02) .02 (.02) -.06 (.03)* -.06 (.03)* .03 (.05) .02 (.05) Skilled worker -.02 (.02) -.01 (.03) -.02 (.02) -.02 (.02) -.13 (.03)*** -.12 (.04)*** -.05 (.05) -.09 (.05)* Semi-skilled -.05 (.03)* -.05 (.03)* -.03 (.02) -.04 (.02) -.14 (.04)*** -.15 (.04)*** -.12 (.05)** -.13 (.06)** worker Unskilled worker -.04 (.03) -.04 (.03) -.03 (.02) -.02 (.02) -.11 (.04)*** -.09 (.04)** -.07 (.06) -.10 (.06)* Farm worker -.04 (.03) -.01 (.04) -.01 (.03) -.01 (.03) -.08 (.05) -.05 (.05) .01 (.07) -.003 (.07) Farm -.04 (.04) -.03 (.04) .02 (.03) .03 (.04) -.01 (.05) .01 (.06) -.06 (.08) -.09 (.08) proprietor/manager Still in education .03 (.03) .03 (.03) .08 (.02)*** .08 (.03)*** .09 (.04)** .08 (.04)* .04 (.06) .04 (.06) Political knowledge .02 (.004)*** .02 (.01)*** .02 (.004)*** .02 (.004)*** .03 (.01)*** .02 (.01)*** .0003 (.01) .003 (.01) Exposure to .01 (.01) .02 (.01)* -.02 (.01)** -.01 (.01) .01 (.01) .01 (.01) .02 (.02) .01 (.02) mobilization efforts (c) Female -.008 (.009) -.01 (.01) .02 (.008)** .02 (.008)** -.02 (.01) -.03 (.01)** -.01 (.02) -.01 (.02) Area of residence Small or middle- -.01 (.01) -.007 (.01) -.02 (.01)* -.02 (.01)* -.01 (.01) .008 (.01) .04 (.02)* .03 (.02) sized town Suburbs of large .006 (.01) .004 (.01) -.01 (.01) -.01 (.01) .004 (.02) .009 (.02) .03 (.03) .006 (.03) town or city Large town or city -.0002 (.01) .008 (.01) .01 (.01) .01 (.01) .01 (.01) .02 (.02) .01 (.02) .002 (.02)

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Religiosity -.007 (.002) -.007 -.02 (.002)*** -.02 (.002)*** -.01 (.003)*** -.01 (.003)*** -.001 (.005) -.002 (.005) (.002)*** Party-level variables Ideological clarity (c) .22 (.1)** .27 (.11)** .32 (.10)*** .37 (.11)*** .11 (.20) .10 (.21) -.01 (.18) .18 (.18) Radical right parties -.06 (.05) -.02 (.06) .06 (.06) -.03 (.06) .37 (.09)*** .48 (.10)*** .13 (.09) .29 (.10)*** Green parties .11 (.05)** .08 (.06) .05 (.07) .08 (.05) .02 (.10) .03 (.10) .11 (.10) .08 (.09) Radical left parties -.13 (.05)** -.2 (.06)*** -.23 (.07)*** -.27 (.05)*** -.05 (.10) -.10 (.10) .04 (.10) -.02 (.09) System-level variables Electoral system (ref. closed ballot system) Ordered ballot syst. .04 (.06) .06 (.06) .20 (.05)*** .22 (.05)*** -.08 (.20) -.02 (.20) .01 (.09) .001 (.09) Open ballot syst. .01 (.06) -.01 (.10) .09 (.05)* .11 (.09) .13 (.20) .02 (.20) -.02 (.09) -.06 (.13) District magnitude (c) .0008 (.001) .001 (.001) .003 .004 .001 (.005) .001 (.003) .0008 (.002) .0002 (.001) (.001)*** (.001)*** Open ballot .001 (.002) .002 (.002) .0006 (.008) .0007 (.004) syst.*District magnitude (c)

Candidate’s deviation -.06 (.1) -.04 (.09) -.07 (.12) .13 (.07)** from party position Open ballot .08 (.15) .06 (.14) .25 (.22) .10 (.10) syst.*Candidate’s deviation from party position

EU membership in .001 (.001) .001 (.001) -.001 (.001) -.001 (.0009) .01 (.004)*** .01 (.004)*** -.0001 (.001) -.0009 (.002) years _cons -1.24 (.05)*** -1.24 (.07)*** -1.50 (.04)*** -1.46 (.06)*** -1.74 (.15)*** -1.67 (.17)*** -1.38 (.09)*** -1.48 (.10)*** Random effects Intercept for political .08 (.02) .09 (.02) .00005 .07 (.02) .38 (.06) .38 (.06) .12 (.04) .13 (.03) systems (.0002) Party intercept .15 (.01) .15 (.01) .21 (.01) .14 (.01) .29 (.02) .27 (.02) .27 (.02) .23 (.02) Residual .43 (.003) .43 (.003) .38 (.002) .37 (.003) .61 (.004) .60 (.004) .92 (.006) .90 (.006) Variance explained at: Individual-level 1.5% 4.2% 9.6% 9.6% 2.5% 7.4% 2% 5.8% Party-level 17.8% 17.8% 11% 60% 3.2% 20.6% 1.3% 30% 132

System-level 45% 27% 90% 56% 49% 49.7% 32% 17.5% No of political systems 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 No of parties 162 134 162 133 162 134 162 136 N 11161 9482 11161 9171 11161 9590 11161 9873 Notes: *** significant at p < .01, ** significant at p < .05, * significant at p < .1; centred variables have been indicated with (c) 

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