US-Turkey 'Safe Zone'

UK £2 Issue 218, Year 5 August 18, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Developments The Muslim Success of Brotherhood drives in Yemen wedge between haj season Cairo and Tripoli Pages 6,8 Page 5 Pages 6, 20 US-Turkey ‘safe zone’ augurs fracturing of Syria into foreign areas of influence ► Despite lingering disagreements, the move demonstrates how foreign powers are establishing separate zones in Syria while the Damascus government cannot do much. Thomas Seibert “Syria is unlikely to be unified for a long time,” said Joshua Lan- dis, director of the Centre for Mid- Istanbul dle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. he debate between Tur- “Turkey has territorial ambitions key and the United States in Syria. Many influential groups in about setting up a “secu- US foreign policy circles are also T rity zone” in north-eastern saying that the US should remain Syria is the latest example of for- in north Syria for the long haul, eign and regional power politics which is not promising,” Landis deepening divisions in the war- said via e-mail. torn country. Turkey denies that it has terri- Ankara and Washington have be- torial aspirations in Syria. Ankara gun preparations to set up a joint argues that plans for a “security operations centre to manage a “se- zone” in north-eastern Syria were curity zone” along Syria’s north- triggered by the same reason that eastern border with Turkey. led to military interventions by Even though the two NATO part- Turkey west of the Euphrates Riv- ners have been unable to agree on er in 2016 and 2018: Turkey says the size of the zone and on who its national security is threatened would patrol the area, the move by the Kurds’ region of self-rule, demonstrates how foreign powers described as a “terror corridor” by are establishing separate zones of Turkish politicians. Critics, point- influence and pursuing their own ing to the extension of Turkish goals in Syria while the Damascus power lines and postal services government cannot do more than into the Syrian city of Jarabulus, Pointing the finger. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar (L) and the Supreme Allied Commander register its protest. say that Ankara is likely to be in Europe, US Air Force General Tod Wolters, speak at a NATO meeting in Brussels, last June. (Reuters) Turkey wants the “security Syria for the long haul. zone” to make sure that Syrian- Under an agreement with Rus- and exhausted. It is also very de- Idlib because it is concerned to Syria being fractured as a state, Kurdish fighters do not use the sia, Turkey has deployed a small pendent on Russia, which means about a possible new inflow of Wimmen added by telephone. He border region to stir up trouble in number of soldiers in 12 observa- that Assad’s ambitions to get back refugees. pointed to the emergence of de Turkey itself. The United States, tion posts around the Idlib prov- territory in both Aleppo and Idlib Winning back Kurdish-ruled re- facto zones of influence along the which has about 2,000 soldiers ince in north-western Syria to provinces are linked to Turco- gions in eastern Syria will be an- river Euphrates, with the Russian deployed in eastern Syria, wants monitor a ceasefire in the area. Russian relations,” he said. other challenge for Assad’s forces. Air Force becoming dominant to protect its Kurdish partners Iranian and pro-Iranian forces are Moscow’s intervention in Syr- “The longer Damascus is ex- west of the river while the United from the Turkish armed forces. also active in Syria. ia’s war in 2015 saved Assad’s cluded from certain areas of the States rules the skies east of it. Despite Turkey’s warnings, Kurds The government of Syrian Pres- forces from defeat and has helped country, the more facts are being This could end up making the Eu- want to keep the regional auton- ident Bashar Assad has vowed to the government regain control in created on the ground,” said Hei- phrates a dividing line inside Syr- omy they have built since Syrian win back every part of the coun- several parts of the country. ko Wimmen, project director for ia but that did not mean that the forces withdrew from their area try, which would include the re- Syrian government forces and Iraq, Syria and Lebanon at the In- country would break apart along years ago to fight elsewhere in the gion of Kurdish self-rule and ar- Russian warplanes have been ternational Crisis Group. “Damas- that line, Wimmen said. country. eas occupied by Turkish troops, gaining ground in Idlib but have cus has a lot of work to do in that Some observers said the devel- but has been unable to act upon not driven out rebel forces from respect, it could take a long time.” Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly opment could lead to grave conse- its goal, Landis said. the province. Turkey wants to However, it was far from certain correspondent. quences. “The Syrian military is weak prevent an all-out offensive in that this development would lead P2-3 Variegated election landscape reflects changed face of Tunisian politics Lamine Ghanmi nahda Vice-President Abdelfattah for more orthodox candidates such gramme in five pledges that position and disclose the truth about the Mourou, is the formal candidate of as Zbidi, who is basking in the pres- him as a loyal heir to Caid Essebsi cases of assassinations, recruitment the Islamist party. tige of the military as the most trust- and the main adversary of the Islam- of jihadists and the secret organisa- Tunis Political scientist Sahbi Khal- ed state institution in Tunisia. Opin- ists and their allies in the elections. tion, without any political calcula- faoui said the situation represents ion polls indicate the army is deeply Despite the splintering, the sec- tions.” n a country that prides itself a change of paradigm. “Each move- respected by Tunisians because of ond round of voting, to take place A leftist lawsuit alleged the as- for having the world’s largest ment has its own candidate. Ennah- its role in fighting terrorism and in by early November unless a candi- sassinations of political leaders Mo- collection of Roman mosaics, da, for instance, has fielded a bid by shielding the democratic transition date wins more than 50% of the vote hamed Brahmi and Chokri Belaid in I Tunisia’s political scene ahead one of its leaders. This will make it over the last eight years. The recent September 15, could see a more po- 2013 were plotted by an Islamist “se- of presidential elections September possible to know the level of sup- successful management of Tunisian larised landscape with modernists cret security apparatus.” A separate 15 looks a lot like a colourful mosaic. port enjoyed by the party,” he told President Beji Caid Essebsi’s funeral opposed to Islamists. lawsuit claimed Ennahda leaders The 26 candidates whose bids Paris’s Le Monde newspaper. enhanced the prestige of the army. Zbidi, in his campaign pledges, facilitated recruitment and travel to were approved by Tunisia’s Inde- Slow economic growth, high un- Zbidi, 69, summed up his pro- vowed to “strictly enforce the law Syria of hundreds of jihadists. The pendent Election Authority are of- employment and a deteriorating accusations have been vehemently fering voters diverse views on why standard of living have fuelled dis- denied by Ennahda. they are the most competent to be trust of politicians and led candi- Chahed is likely also to stress his president and why their rivals are dates to distance themselves from secularist credentials and his role in not. the ruling establishment. the investigation of accusations to This is a far cry from Tunisia’s This explains the strong appeal Ennahda about its alleged involve- 2014 presidential election. There is of populist views to voters, as illus- ment in the “secret organisation.” more than one candidate claiming trated by positive reactions to the The election campaign doesn’t be- to represent any of the three main relentless drive by Heart of Tunisia gin until September 2 but the focus political camps — the secularists, leader Nabil Karoui targeting the of candidates seems to be more on the leftists and the Islamists. This poor and the marginalised, the an- enhancing their profile than in ex- has created a free-for-all battle roy- ti-corruption message of Kais Said plaining campaign platform. ale in each camp. who is courting Islamists and young Political debates during the cam- The secularist field is crowded radicals or the call for a “Third Re- paign could change that but, for the with contenders. Tunisian Prime public” by Free Destourian Party time being, social media wars are Minister Youssef Chahed, 43, faces leader Abir Moussi. getting more attention than discus- stiff competition from former De- Often, however, the voters’ choic- sion of ideas that Tunisia’s plural- fence Minister Abdelkarim Zbidi, es seem based less on programmes, istic landscape could offer to the former Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa especially dealing with complex public. and at least ten other modernist economic challenges, than on the candidates. personal draw of the politicians. Working the crowd. Supporters of the Tahya Tounes party Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly Among the four or five candidates This is the key consideration for the celebrate after Prime Minister Youssef Chahed submitted his correspondent in Tunis. competing for the Islamist vote, En- so-called populist figures but also candidacy for the presidential elections in Tunisia, August 9. (afp) P4 2 August 18, 2019 Cover Story Turkey presses Syria intervention against Kurdish forces despite agreement with US Thomas Seibert ance of groups supported by Wash- ington to fight the Islamic State.

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