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Agricultural Public Expenditure Review Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized TAJIKISTAN AGRIFOOD SECTOR AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW Europe and Central Asia Region Public Disclosure Authorized TAJIKISTAN AGRIFOOD SECTOR AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW Europe and Central Asia Region © 2020 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyrighted. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution Cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2021. “Tajikistan: Agrifood Sector and Public Expenditure Review,” World Bank, Washington, D.C. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Photos Authors and shutterstock.com Pre-press alexpublishers.ru Table of Сontents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................viii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ..................................................................viiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................1 CHAPTER 1: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE AGRIFOOD SECTOR Of TAJIKISTAN ........................................................................................................11 (I) CONTEXT .........................................................................................................11 (II) RECENT ACHIEVEMENTS ...........................................................................15 (III) CHALLENGES ................................................................................................23 (IV) MAIN TAKE AWAYS ....................................................................................51 CHAPTER 2: COVID-19 CRISIS AND IMPACTS ON TAJIKISTAN’S AGRIFOOD SECTOR AND FOOD SECURITY ..................................................53 (I) IMPACTS ...........................................................................................................53 (II) RESPONSES....................................................................................................61 (III) MAIN TAKE AWAYS .....................................................................................64 CHAPTER 3: AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW ................67 (I) LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURES .........................67 (II) FISCAL IMPACT .............................................................................................70 (III) EXECUTION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES .............................................74 (IV) ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY OF AGRICULTURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ..................................................................................................74 (V) MAIN TAKE AWAYS .....................................................................................82 CHAPTER 4: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................85 List of Figures Figure 1: Tajikistan: Growth in agricultural value added and GDP, 2010–2020 ................................................................................................... 15 Figure 2: Tajikistan: Agricultural land use, %, 2005 and 2018 ...................... 18 Figure 3: Number of jobs created globally per US$1 million investment ... 18 Figure 4: Export potential of Tajik fresh and dried fruits, US$ million ......... 22 Figure 5: Tajikistan: Household food consumption, Jan.–Sept. 2018 ........ 24 Figure 6: Nutrition of children under the age of five, Central Asia .............. 25 Figure 7: Tajikistan: Food as a share of total consumption, 2012–2015 .... 27 Figure 8: Tajikistan: Food as a share of consumption by poverty status, 2012–2015 ................................................................................................... 27 Figure 9: Tajikistan: Price of selected food products, price index ............... 28 Figure 10: Aggregate food price index, Central Asian countries ................. 28 Figure 11: Share of agrifood in total imports, selected countries, 2016–2019 ................................................................................................... 29 Figure 12: Share of agrifood in total exports, selected countries, 2016–2019 .................................................................................................. 28 Figure 13: Tajikistan: Food supply and import dependency .......................... 30 Figure 14: Tajikistan: Volatility of fruit price index, Jan. 2015–Sept. 2020 ..................................................................................... 31 Figure 15: Tajikistan: Selected macroeconomic indicators, 2000–2019 ... 31 Figure 16: Raw cotton yield in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, 2000–2020 .... 42 Figure 17: Tajik export and world market prices of cotton lint, 2012–2020 ................................................................................................ 43 Figure 18: Tajikistan: Access of households to agriculture-related information ................................................................................................. 46 Figure 19: Tajikistan: Production of dairy products, ‘000 tons, 2013–2018 .................................................................................................. 47 Figure 20: Tajikistan: Production of meat products, ‘000 tons, 2014–2019 ................................................................................................. 49 Figure 21: Per capita production of fresh dairy in CIS countries, 2018 ....... 49 Figure 22: Per capita production of meat products in CIS countries, ‘000, 2018 ................................................................................................. 49 Figure 23: Channels of COVID-19’s transmission to food and agriculture 55 Figure 24: Tajikistan: Availability of and access to seeds in 2020 .............. 56 Figure 25: Tajikistan: Prices of selected fertilizers, 2019 and 2020 ........... 56 Figure 26: Tajikistan: Changes in CPI composition, 2016–2020 (% annual change)....................................................................................................... 57 Figure 27: Tajikistan: Retail prices of wheat flour, in Somoni and US$, 2010–2020 ............................................................................................... 58 Figure 28: Tajikistan: Retail prices of potatoes, in Somoni and US$, 2010–2020 ............................................................................................... 59 Figure 29: Tajikistan: Reduced food consumption in 2019 and 2020 ....... 60 Figure 30: Tajikistan: Hunger situation in 2020 ................................................. 60 iv Figure 31: Distribution of agriculture and food policy measures responding to COVID-19 by category and type ............................. 611 Figure 32: Benchmarking Tajikistan’s agricultural public expenditures with its peers ............................................................................................ 73 Figure 33: Tajikistan: Functional composition of government funds, 2015–2020 ............................................................................................... 76 List of Tables Table 1: Areas of emphasis and implications for policy recommendations ....................................................................................... 6 Table 2: Agriculture in Tajikistan’s economy, %, 2010–2020 ....................... 11 Table 3: Tajikistan: Use of agricultural land, ‘000 ha, 1995–2018 ............... 12 Table 4: Tajikistan: Selected national and regional agricultural indicators, 2018 ................................................................................................................. 13 Table 5: Initial agricultural income and agricultural growth in selected countries and regions, 2010–2019 ........................................................ 16 Table 6: Tajikistan: Crop yields, kg/ha .................................................................. 17 Table 7: Tajikistan: Agrifood export, ‘000 US$, 2015–2020 ......................... 20 Table 8: Eurasian region agrifood exports in 2019 ........................................... 21 Table 9: Retail prices of selected food products in Central Asia’s capitals, in US$, Oct. 2020 .................................................................... 26 Table 10: Price volatility of selected food products, Central Asia, retail prices, in %, Jan. 2009–Sept. 2020, national currencies . 28 Table 11: Tajikistan: Potato and flour price volatility, in %, Jan. 2009–Sept. 2020 ............................................................................. 29 Table 12: Agricultural
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