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MAX Security Report Intel@Max-Security.Com +44 203 540 0434 MAX Security Report [email protected] +44 203 540 0434 Daily MAX - MENA Region Daily Summary - 15 December 15, 2020 DEC 12:19 UTC The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. Highlights of the Day Iran: British-Iranian national sentenced to prison in Tehran, per December 14 reports; government crackdown on dissent likely to persist Iran: Police officers, civilians shot by armed robbers in West Azerbaijan’s Mahabad on December 13; highlights risk of collateral damage Qatar: Authorities detain two Australian nationals for five months, per December 14 reports; notable due to rarity of such arrests Tunisia: Clashes recorded between residents along Kebili, Medenine governorate borders on December 14; notable due to scale of local dispute Turkey: US State Department announces sanctions on Turkey over purchase S-400 defense system on December 14; notable as unprecedented Actionable Items Turkey: Authorities will impose nationwide lockdown starting from December 31 until January 4, 2021; adhere to government instructions According to Turkey’s official news agency, the authorities will impose a lockdown across Turkey starting from 21:00 (local time) on December 31 until 05:00 on January 4, 2021. This measure is part of the government’s efforts to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Those operating or residing in Turkey between December 31 and January 4 are advised to adhere to the government’s instructions and take necessary precautions to ensure business continuity due to the slated lockdown. Remain apprised of the authorities’ updates regarding additional restrictions on movement. Notable Events Egypt: IS claims destruction of EAAF bulldozer in IED attack in Sheikh Zuweid on December 13; reflects increased focus of activity in area This comes amid a gradual shift in Islamic State (IS)-affiliated Wilayat Sinai’s focus of operations page 1 / 5 away from areas surrounding Rabaa and Bir al-Abd towards Rafah-Sheikh Zuweid in the North Sinai Governorate. About 70 percent of attacks recorded in North Sinai in November and December have occurred either in Sheikh Zuweid or Rafah, as compared to 27 percent in August, 58 percent in September, and 50 percent in October. This shift can be largely attributed to an increase in the Egyptian Armed Forces’ (EAAF) counter-militancy operations in Rabaa and Bir al-Abd over the past few months, which has restricted Wilayat Sinai’s freedom of operations in this region. This has compelled Wilayat Sinai to focus its operations in Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid, where the group retains significant operational capabilities, despite the EAAF’s intensive counter-militancy campaign in 2017-19. This has allowed the militant group to maintain the average pace of its operations in North Sinai. Given Wilayat Sinai’s demonstrated ability to adapt to the dynamic security environment of North Sinai, further attacks will be recorded in the region over the coming days. Iran: British-Iranian national sentenced to prison in Tehran, per December 14 reports; government crackdown on dissent likely to persist The individual was sentenced to eight years for “collaborating with a hostile government”. According to an unconfirmed report, the individual was illegally receiving funds from “institutions trying to topple the Iranian government”. The academic researches women’s and children’s rights in Iran. This development comes amid the Iranian government’s persistent crackdown on opposition elements, including dual nationals. While the individual was charged with links to a foreign government, this was likely an effort by Tehran to justify its decision. This is particularly because the Iranian government is known to crack down on individuals promoting human rights issues in Iran. This is evidenced by the December 13 sentencing of two women’s rights activists to 15 years in prison on similar charges of “collaborating with the US government”. Moreover, the government has recently faced backlash from European countries for its execution of another Iranian journalist on December 12, and therefore likely aims to mitigate further domestic and international criticism. Regardless of the potential for additional condemnation, further arrests of dissident elements by the Iranian authorities are likely over the coming weeks and months. Iran: Police officers, civilians shot by armed robbers in West Azerbaijan’s Mahabad on December 13; highlights risk of collateral damage According to Iran’s official news agency, security forces had identified and were in pursuit of a known robber. This prompted the robber and his accomplice to open fire. One civilian was killed, while another individual and two police officers were wounded. This development is notable given the rarity of such security incidents in West Azerbaijan Province resulting in civilian casualties. This incident underscores the proliferation of weapons in West Azerbaijan, despite Iran’s restrictive laws on gun ownership. The accessibility of weapons to criminal elements can be partly attributed to Mahabad’s proximity to the porous border with Iraq, which facilitates the cross border movement of weapons and other contraband items. This is further evidenced by the seizure of weapons from three militants arrested in the province on December 2. As indicated by the killing of the civilian, the occurrence of such incidents in a public environment highlights the risk of collateral damage to uninvolved bystanders. While security forces will attempt to arrest the shooters, given the existing challenges to securing Iran’s northwestern borders, similar incidents may occur over the coming months. Lebanon: Gunshots, RPGs fired during dispute in Baalbek-Hermel Governorate on December 13; comes amid deteriorating security situation page 2 / 5 The incident occurred in Ras al-Ayn in Baalbek. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) reportedly intervened to restore public order. A search is underway for the perpetrators. Baalbek is located approximately 70 km northwest of Beirut. On December 10, Lebanese President Michel Aoun received Bashir Khader, the Governor of Baalbek-Hermel Governorate, to brief him on the “deteriorating” security situation. Aoun stated that “armed elements are now using RPGs, blocking roads, and terrorizing people” in the region. This development comes amid periodic armed clashes among locals using automatic weapons in the outlying Bekaa valley region. It highlights the wide proliferation of arms and the high levels of lawlessness in the governorate. The fact that these armed clashes occurred in a public environment highlights the high risk of collateral damage to bystanders and uninvolved civilians in the vicinity. President Aoun’s statement shows that the security situation in the governorate is likely to further worsen, reiterating the continued risk emanating from such localized acts of violence. Additional instances of armed clashes are likely to occur in the governorate in the coming weeks. Morocco: SPLA claims on December 13 attacks on Moroccan military positions along separation wall in Western Sahara; attacks to persist The Sahrawi Liberation People’s Army (SPLA), the military wing of the Polisario Front, claimed that it targeted nine Moroccan military positions in Mahbes, Farsia, Houza, Bakari, and Techla on December 12-13. On December 12, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for a resumption of dialogue to achieve a political solution to the Western Sahara dispute, a decision that was praised by the Polisario Front. The spate of SPLA attacks against Moroccan military positions in Western Sahara started in direct response to Rabat’s November 13 military operation in the Guerguerat buffer zone. However, the latest attacks come in the immediate aftermath of the US administration’s December 10 recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and are therefore likely meant to also denounce this decision. While the US’s announcement is a symbolic victory for Rabat, the UN and the EU have stated that the US’s unilateral decision does not reflect an end to the crisis. Hence, the SPLA will continue its attacks on Moroccan military positions in Western Sahara to maintain pressure on Rabat over the coming days and weeks. Qatar: Authorities detain two Australian nationals for five months, per December 14 reports; notable due to rarity of such arrests An Australian public health professor and his son were detained in Doha in July without being charged and are being held in an unspecified location. They are receiving consular assistance from the Australian Embassy. In October, the US State Department imposed sanctions on another one of the professor’s sons, who currently resides in Australia, for providing “financial and material support” for al-Qaeda. This development is notable due to the overall rarity of arrests of foreign nationals in Qatar. Although the reason for their detention remains unspecified at the time of writing, given the individuals’ relation to the “financial facilitator” sanctioned by the US, they were possibly detained due their suspected links to al-Qaeda and may be undergoing investigation. If this is confirmed, it would show the Qatari authorities’ heightened vigilance of any individuals that may be linked to militant activity who are residing in the country and their willingness to crackdown on such elements, regardless of their nationality. Overall, this incident is likely isolated and does not indicate a trend of foreign nationals being arrested in Qatar. page 3 / 5 Syria: IS-linked media reports on killing of 13 SAA soldiers in Hama Province on December 14; may prompt anti-IS operations in region According to the Islamic State (IS)-linked media report, clashes took place between its militants and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers near Hama’s Rahjan village in the San region, located about 70 km northeast of Hama city, after the latter tried to approach IS hideouts. The SAA forces were reportedly forced to retreat. The development comes amid frequent IS attacks targeting SAA personnel in the Badia Desert. In this context, on November 26, the Sunni jihadist militants killed 11 pro-SAA fighters during raids in Homs’ Badia Desert.
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