The War Report Armed Conflicts in 2016

Annyssa Bellal

The academy a joint center of

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The War Report 2016 was written by Dr Annyssa Bellal, Strategic Adviser on In- ternational Humanitarian Law and Research Fellow at the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights (Geneva Academy), with the research assistance of Shashaank Bahadur Nagar, LLM 2016, Geneva Academy. The War Report 2016 also builds on the work of the past editions of 2012, 2013 (edited by Stuart Casey-Maslen) and 2014 (edited by Annyssa Bellal). The Geneva Academy would like to thank the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) for its support to the research on this issue.

DISCLAIMER This report is the work of the author. The views expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of the Geneva Academy. The qualification of any situation of armed violence as an armed conflict under international law should not be read such as to trigger war clauses in insurance contracts and does not in any way affect the need for due diligence by any natural or legal person in their work in any of the situations referred to. Furthermore, facts, matters, or opinions contained in the report are provided by the Geneva Academy without assuming responsibility to any user of the report who may rely on its contents in whole or in part.

The designation of armed non-state actors, states, or territories does not imply any judgement by the Geneva Academy regarding the legal status of such actors, states, or territories, or their authorities and institutions, or the delimitation of their boundaries, or the status of any states or territories that border them.

March 2017

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CONTENTS 5 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 6 2. 1. Under 4. 2. 1. a 3. 2. 1. 2. f. e. d. c. b. a. 2. ar B. A C. D C. B. B. A D C. C. A D D ...... re

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War Crimes Alle Key Developmen ts in 2016:Severe Clashes in April 2016 War Crimes Alle Key Developments in 2016:g Increasin Polisario Front Morroco Turkey Cyprus Azerbaijan Armenia Hezbollah YPG-YPJ Ahrar al-Sham Islamic State(IS) Haiy’a Tahrir al-Sham(formerJabhat Fateh al-Sham,formerNusra Front) Free Syrian Army Non-International ArmedConflicts of Jus Wes War Crimes Alle War Crimes Alle ar ar ar Setba cent cent ticle 96.3 API t t t bakh:gorno-Kara Severe Clashes in April 2016 ties t ties t ties t ory of the Conflict ory of the Conflict ory of the Conflict tern Sahara: The Polisario Front ary Occupa Developments in 2016:Setba Developments in 2015-2016: tice De

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CONTENTS 7 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 8 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 6. M 4. 3. 2. 1. 5. L 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.

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CONTENTS 9 The War R Theepor Wart :R Aeporrmedt: A Conflirmed Conflicts ctins 2016in 2016 1010 Introduction organized armedgroups(orbetweensuchthemselves). Thusreportsde- cially theextentofclashesbetweenarmedforces,or armedforcesand crossing thethresholdintoarmedconflict;otherfactorsarealsopertinent,espe- may constitutecrimesagainsthumanity within astatemayclaimnotonlyhundreds,buteventhousands,oflives—and lence asanarmedconflictisnotsimplyanumbersgame.Indeed,violence life maybeinanystateorterritory,thequalificationofasituationarmedvio- Further, asexplainedinmoredetaillater,howeversignificant(andtragic)lossof ing theapplicablelaw,butiscertainlynotconclusive. amount toanarmedconflictisrelevantinformationforthepurposesofdetermin- Consequently, whetherastateaffirmsthatparticularsituationdoes,ordoesnot, the existenceofanarmedconflictisobjectivetestandnotanational‘decision’. armed conflict(although,unquestionably,thesituationsmaycoincide).Moreover, a situationthreateninginternationalpeaceandsecurityisnotsynonymforan cation thataparticularsituationofarmedviolenceconstitutesanconflict; No nationalorsupranationalbodyisauthoritativeinitsdeterminationimpli- tion witharmedconflicts. Committee oftheRedCross(ICRC)hasaformalrole in protectiononlyconnec- only becommittedinconnectionwithanarmedconflict.Third,theInternational participation, seethe‘Summaryrules’sectionsinPartI).Second,warcrimesmay forces oracivilian‘participatingdirectlyinhostilities’(forthedurationofsuch does notprohibittheintentionaluse of lethalforceagainsta member ofthearmed law of law enforcement,applies only in a situation of armed conflict. Notably, IHL less restrictiveinitsprohibitionsontheuseoflethalforcethanisinternational First and foremost, IHL governing the conduct of hostilities, which is markedly istence ofanarmedconflictisimportantbecauseithasfar-reachingimplications. main andprovidelegalanalysisundertheframeworkofinternationallaw.Theex- The purposeofWarReportistocollectinformationanddatainthepublicdo- under internationalhumanitarianlaw(IHL)andcriminal(ICL). that amounted to armed conflicts in accordance with the definitions recognized This workidentifies,describes,anddiscussessituationsofarmedviolencein2016 of Genocide. Art. 6,Rome Statute; see alsoConvention Art.2,1948 onthePrevention andPunishment of theCrime e. d. c. b. a. national, ethnical, racial orreligious group, assuch: 2 humane acts.Art.7(1)(a)–(k),Rome Statute. cy, enforced sterilization, sexual violence, persecution, enforced disappearance, apartheid, and other in- transfer of population,imprisonment, torture, rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnan- which attack theperpetrator hasknowledge. Suchactsare murder, extermination, enslavement, forcible certain actsare undertaken aspart of awidespread orsystematic attack against acivilianpopulationof Rome Statute of the International CriminalCourt (Rome Statute), crimes against humanity occur where 1

Crimesagainst humanityare those crimesthat‘shock theconscience of humanity’.Underthe1998 Genocide‘means any of thefollowing actscommitted withintent to destroy, inwholeorpart, a Forcibly transferring children of thegroup to another group.’ Imposing measures intended to prevent birthswithinthegroup; tion inwholeorpart; Deliberately inflictingonthegroup conditions of life calculated to bringaboutits physical destruc Causing serious bodily or mental harmto membersof thegroup; Killing membersof thegroup; 1 orevengenocide 2 —withoutnecessarily -

INTRODUCTION 11 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 12 of armedviolencethatamounttoanconflictunderIHL. Academy (rulac.org),anonlinedatabasethatidentifiesandclassifiesallsituations read inconjunctionwiththeRuleofLawArmedConflictportalGeneva refer tothepasteditionsof2012,2013and2014.TheWarReport2016mayalsobe a completeoverviewofthehistoryallconflicts,itisthereforerecommendedto 2016 editionwillcommentontherecentdevelopmentsofselectedconflicts.For 2009 underGenevaAcademyauspices. the workofRuleLawinArmedConflict(RULAC)projectconductedsince Part 2focusesanddetailsthesituationsofarmedconflictsin2016,drawingon law, certaincontroversiesandimprecisionnotwithstanding. on thebasisofexplicitcriteriathat,Ibelieve,bestreflectexistentinternational Part 1ofthisworklistsandsummarizesthearmedconflictsthatoccurredin2016 significance underinternationallaw. valuable forpoliticalsciencepurposes,butsuchcategorizationsdonotpersehave tailing ‘wars’basedon,forexample,25or1,000battlefielddeathsannuallycanbe 3 At: http://www.rulac.org/ 3 UnlikepasteditionsofTheWarReport,the

INTRODUCTION 13 The War R Theepor Wart :R Aeporrmedt: A Conflirmed Conflicts ctins 2016in 2016 1414 Summary P t 1 ar Ukraine andYemen. kistan, thePhilippines,Somalia,SouthSudan,Syria,Thailand,Turkey, istan, Colombia,theDRC,Egypt,India,Iraq,Libya,Mali,Myanmar,Nigeria,Pa- At leastatotalof36NIACsoccurredin2016theterritory20states:Afghan- dan, Syria,Thailand,Turkey,Ukraine,WesternSahara,andYemen. Myanmar, Nigeria,Pakistan,Palestine,thePhilippines,Somalia,SouthSudan,Su- Congo (DRC), Egypt, Eritrea, Georgia, Iraq, India, Lebanon,Libya,Mali, Moldova, tories inAfghanistan,Azerbaijan,Colombia,Cyprus,theDemocraticRepublicof In 2016,atleast48armedconflictsoccurredontheterritoryof28statesandterri- LOAC framework. hostilities) isbetter termed IHLwhile‘Hague’law (ontheconduct of hostilities) falls withinthebroader protection of those in thepower of aparty to conflict whoare not, ornolonger, participating directly in conflict (LOAC). Today, this is theprevailing view, althoughithasbeen argued that‘Geneva’ law (onthe 6 Conflict’, SSRN, 2008, p132,http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2222757. PCNICC/2000/1/Add.2 See,Cullen, e.g., (2000), n.34. ‘The A. Threshold of Non-International Armed term “international armed conflict” includesmilitary occupation’. ICC, Elementsof Crimes,UNdoc 5 the United States. Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, theUnited Kingdom,and Italy, Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg, Mongolia,Montenegro, theNetherlands,New Zealand, Norway, Finland, theformer Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Azerbaijan, Belgium,BosniaandHerzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark,Estonia, mission and are, asaconsequence, concerned by thisarmed conflict: Albania, Armenia,Australia, Austria, advise andassist Afghan security forces andinstitutions. The following states are contributing to the Organization (NATO) inAfghanistan, replacing theInternational Security Assistance Force (ISAF),to train, 4 In accordancewithIHL(alsocalledthelawofarmedconflict,LOAC), 1. Wha there aretwocategoriesofarmedconflict:internationalconflict(IAC)and military occupationthatalsoformspartofthelawinternationalarmedconflict. ia, UkraineandWesternSahara).Theseoccupationsaregovernedbythelawof territories (Azerbaijan,Cyprus,Eritrea,Georgia,Lebanon,Moldova,Palestine,Syr- and Syria. In addition, belligerent occupations continued of parts of 10 states and as wellbetweenthedifferentstatesbelongingtoUS-ledcoalitioninSyria the territory of 3 states: between India and Pakistan, between Ukraine and Russia, Of the48conflicts,activeinternationalarmedconflictshavebeentakingplacein end toarmedviolence,muchlessthesufferingofpopulation. of an armed conflict as defined by international law does not necessarily imply an conflicts endedduring2016(inColombiaandinAfghanistan).Ofcourse,theend The Elementsof Crimesestablished undertheInternational CriminalCourt (ICC) provide that ‘the Views differ asto whetherinternational humanitarian law (IHL) isasynonym for thelaw of armed On1January2015, theResolute Supportmission was established by theNorthAtlantic Treaty t is an Armed Conflict ? 4 Twoarmed 6 andICL, 5

PART 1 : SUMMARY 15 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 16 7 March §1197. 2014, 9 www.icrc.org/eng/assets/files/other/irrc-873-vite.pdf. Humanitarian Law: Legal Concepts andActual Situations’, 91 IRRC 873 (March 2009), pp69–94, http:// files/other/opinion-paper-armed-conflict.pdf; andS.Vité, ‘Typology of Armed Conflicts inInternational in International Humanitarian Law?’, ICRC Opinion Paper, March 2008, http://www.icrc.org/eng/assets/ cases/tadic/acdec/en/51002.htm. See generally also ICRC, ‘How istheTerm “Armed Conflict” Defined on Jurisdiction (Appeals Chamber)(Case No. IT-94-1), 2October 1995, §70, http://www.icty.org/x/ 8 first&part=1&cid=460406. This decision hasnoinfluence definitionof armed ontheIHL/ICL conflict. juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=147061&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=lst&dir=&occ= apatrides, Judgment(Fourth Chamber)(Case C-285/12), §35,http://curia.europa.eu/ 30January2014, volved ortheduration of theconflict.’ CJEU, Aboubacar Diakité v. Commissaire général auxréfugiés etaux assessment of the intensity of the armed confrontations, the level of organisation of thearmed forces in- carry out,inadditionto anappraisal of the level of violence present intheterritory concerned, aseparate conflict not of an international character” under international humanitarian law; nor is it necessary to more armed groups confront each other. Itisnot necessary for thatconflict to becategorized as“armed an internal armed conflict exists ‘ifaState’s armed forces confront oneormore armed groups oriftwo or conflict.’ Inadecision theCourt inJanuary2014, of Justice of theEuropean Union(CJEU) determined that lian’s life orperson by reason of indiscriminate violence insituationsof international orinternal armed According to Art. 15(c)of theDirective, serious harmconsists of a‘serious andindividualthreat to acivi- risk, unwilling to avail himself orherself of theprotection of thatcountry’. Art.2,EU Directive 2004/83. habitual residence, would face a real risk of suffering serious harm… and is unable, or, owing to such turned to hisorhercountry of origin,orinthecase of astateless person, to hisorhercountry of former respect of whomsubstantial grounds have been shown for believing thattheperson concerned, ifre- EU law, whetherathird country national orastateless person whodoesnot asarefugee qualify butin 7 case. Criminal Court(ICC)’sTrialChamberjudgmentinMarch2014theKatanga the fragmentationofconflicttheory,hasbeensupportedbyInternational the same time and in parallel in any given state. This position, sometimes called different armed conflicts, comprising one or both categories, may be ongoing at not acaseof‘either-or’inanygivengeographicalsituation.Accordingly,several Furthermore, andeventhoughthisunderstandingisnotuniversallyshared,it to constituteanNIAC.Thisissueisdiscussedbelow. an IACdiffersfrom—i.e.is,ingeneral,significantlylowerthanthatnecessary such groupswithinastate.Thismeansthatthelevel of violenceneededtotrigger lence betweengovernmentalauthoritiesandorganizedarmedgroups,or force betweenstates,whileanNIACexistswhenthereisprotractedarmedvio- Thus, intheviewofICTY,anIACexistswheneverthereisaresorttoarmed non-international armedconflict(NIAC). supporting militia)againsttheFreeSyrianArmyand,separately,Haiy’a example, therearedistinctNIACsin2016SyriapittingSyrianarmedforces(and in theTadićcase: ternational Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in a 1995 decision definition ofthetwocategorieswasadvancedbyAppealsChamberIn- The EU also uses theterm ‘internal armed conflict’ to determine, ‘for thepurposes of protection under ICTY, Prosecutor v. Dusko Tadić (aka, Decision ‘Dule’) ontheDefence Motion for Interlocutory Appeal See, e.g., ICC, Prosecutor v. GermainKatanga, Judgment(Trial ChamberII)(Case No. ICC-01/04-01/07), 9 Suchfragmentationisevidencedinanumberofrecentarmedconflicts.For organized armedgroupsorbetweensuchwithinaState. States orprotractedarmedviolencebetweengovernmentalauthoritiesand [A]n armedconflictexistswheneverthereisaresorttoforcebetween 7 Avaluableandwidelycitedgeneral 8

though, limitedtoareaswherecombatisoccurring. state engagedinanarmedconflict. 2013 betweentheSyrianregimeandIslamicState(IS) Tahrir al-Sham(formeral-Nusrafront),while,aseparateNIACbrokeoutsince the International Law of Armed Conflicts, Hart,2008, pp94–6. 12 (2) The wounded andsickshallbecollected andcared for.’ sable by civilized peoples. by aregularly constituted court, affording allthejudicial guarantees whichare recognized asindispen- (d) thepassing of sentences andthecarrying outof executions without previous judgmentpronounced (c) outrages uponpersonal dignity, inparticular humiliatinganddegrading treatment; (b) taking of hostages; (a) violence to life andperson, inparticular murder of allkinds,mutilation,crueltreatment andtorture; remain prohibited atany timeandinany place whatsoever withrespect to theabove-mentioned persons: or faith, sex, birthorwealth, orany other similarcriteria.… To thisend,thefollowing actsare and shall all circumstances be treated humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, colour, religion their armsandthose placed horsdecombat by sickness, wounds, detention, orany other cause, shallin (1) Persons taking noactive part inthehostilities, includingmembersof armed forces whohave laiddown minimum, thefollowing provisions: 11 the IslamicState of Iraq. 10 Article 3tothe1949GenevaConventions, consequence, anumberoffundamentalrules,includingthosesetoutinCommon IHL generallyappliesthroughouttheterritoryofstateorstatesconcerned.Asa Thus, consonantwiththeviewofICTY,whenanarmedconflictisinprogress, According totheICTY,incaseofBosniaandHerzegovina: at largeinthepowerofthatpartyorciviliansmilitarypersonnelitisdetaining. conflict inotherareasthatitcontrols.Thiscouldconcern,forexample,civilians each other.Warcrimesmay,however,becommittedbyamemberofpartytothe ited totheareaswherepartiesconflictareconductinghostilitiesagainst In anyevent,theexistenceofanarmedconflicteithercategoryisgenerallylim- Syrian Army(FSA)andHezbollah. According to Common Article3,inter alia,‘each Party to theconflict shallbeboundto apply, asa See, e.g., 1949 Geneva Convention IV, Arts.35–46.See also R.Kolb andR.Hyde, AnIntroduction to This armed group isalso called theIslamicState of Iraq andtheLevant (ISIL).Itwas formerly called context ofanarmedconflict. international humanitarianlaw,thecrimesallegedwerecommittedin ... Inlightoftheforegoing,weconcludethat,forpurposesapplying Bosnian Serbmilitarycampaigntoobtaincontroloverterritory. dation ofpowerinthePrijedorregion,whichwas,turn,partlarger the OmarskaprisoncampaspartofBosnianSerbtake-overandconsoli- ther allegesthatcrimeswerecommittedagainstciviliansinsideandoutside of theOpstinaPrijedorandestablishedaprisoncampinOmarska.Itfur- relationship. Theindictmentstatesthatin1992BosnianSerbstookcontrol conflict. Thereisnodoubtthattheallegationsatissueherebearrequired occurring inotherpartsoftheterritoriescontrolledbypartiesto It issufficientthattheallegedcrimeswerecloselyrelatedtohostilities 12 Rulesgoverningtheconductofhostilitiesare, 11 applythroughouttheterritoryofa 10 andbetweentheFree

PART 1 : SUMMARY 17 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 18 whether ornotthepartyattackedresists’. ity ofthe Geneva ConventionsbetweenthetwoStates....Itis also of noconcern of armedforcebyoneStateagainsttheterritoryanothertriggersapplicabil- whether thelatterstatefightsback.Thus,asHans-PeterGasserexplains,‘anyuse er one state uses armed force against the territory of another state, irrespectiveof ad bellum(thelawgoverninginterstateuseofforce),anIACalsoexistswhenev- tional border)donotconstituteanIAC. small-scale ‘frontierincidents’(forexample,whereasoldierfiresacrossaninterna- adopted bytheInternationalCourtofJustice(ICJ)inNicaraguacasewhereby to constituteanIAC.Incontrast,however,TheWarReportfollowstheposition use of force (or even the mere detention of foreign military personnel) is sufficient The See Gray, also C. International Law andtheUse of Force , 3rd Edn, Oxford University Press, 2008, pp177–83. States of America), Judgment(Merits),27 June1986,§195,http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/70/6503.pdf. 15 International Red Cross andRed Crescent Movement, Paul Haupt, 1993, pp510–11. 14 Protocols’, Recueil descours, HagueAcademy of International law (RCADI), Vol. 163 (1979), p131. 13 national CommitteeoftheRedCross(ICRC): belligerent occupationoccursis,though,notfinallysettled.According totheInter- 2 commontothefour1949GenevaConventions.Theprecise momentatwhicha occupies it,evenifthereisnoarmedresistanceatall.This setdowninArticle An IAC does, though, include any situation in which one state invades another and between twoStatesbringstheConventionsintoeffect.’ of thearmedforcestwoStatesclashwitheachother....Anykindusearms Article 2commontotheGenevaConventionscanalwaysbeassumedwhenparts rich Schindlerobserved:‘the existence ofanarmedconflictwithinthemeaning the armed force be between two or more states. It is undoubtedly true that, as Diet- there isaresorttoarmedforcebetweenStates’)toonarrowinitsinsistencethat If understoodstrictly,theICTY’sdefinitionofanIACin state ofwarisnotrecognizedbyonethem.’ which may arise between two or more of the High Contracting Parties, even if the Conventions ‘shallapplytoallcasesofdeclaredwaroranyotherarmedconflict According to Common Article 2 to the 1949 Geneva Conventions, each of the four 2. Interna A . Criteria for the Exis D. Schindler, ‘The Different Types of Armed Conflicts According to the Geneva Conventions and ICJ, Case Concerning Military andParamilitary Activities inandagainst Nicaragua (Nicaragua v. United H.-P. Gasser, ‘International Humanitarian Law: AnIntroduction’ inH.Haug(ed), Humanityfor All:The Tadić cise ofsomedegreeauthoritybylocalauthorities,ortheforeign forces elements –suchasthecontinuationofhostilitiesand/orcontinued exer- Not onlyisthedefinitionofoccupationvagueunderIHL,but otherfactual case appearstosupporttheso-called‘firstshot’theory,inwhichany tional Armed Confli ct tence of an Interna 15

tional Armed Conflict 13 But,consistentwithjus Tadić case(‘whenever be factualandlegalissuesconcerningwhetherwhenanoccupationoccurs. respect toNATO’smilitaryinvolvementinAfghanistan,forinstance.Buttheremay latter state’sconsent,thetwostatesarenotengagedinanIAC.Thisiscasewith Of course,whereonestateusesarmedforceontheterritoryofanotherwith to CommonArticle2: threshold fortheapplicationof1949GenevaConventionsislower.According nex part of Ukrainian territory (Crimea). nex partofUkrainianterritory(Crimea). however, thefactsongrounddemonstratedclearlythatRussiahadsoughttoan- and couldnotthereforebeconsideredgenuinelytorepresentthestate.Subsequently, not effectively control the police or armed forces of Ukraine at the time of the letter out prejudicetothelegalityofhisremovalunderUkrainianlawMrYanukovychdid with-appeal-by-legal-president-yanukovych/. Yanukovych’, 5March http://euromaidanpr.com/2014/03/05/russia–provides-un-security-council- 2014, 19 • • • • • occupation was occurring: against andidentified anon-exhaustive list of factors to take into account when determining whetheran 18 17 IRRC 885(Spring2012), pp29–50. M. Zwanenburg, M.Bothe, andM.Sassòli, ‘IstheLaw of Occupation Applicable to theInvasion Phase?’ 94 to the31st International Conference of theRed Cross andRed Crescent, Geneva, October 2011. See, e.g., 16 tion hasnotbeenapprovedbythelegitimatesovereign.’ effective controloveraterritorythatdoesnotbelongtoit;[and](b)itsinterven- 42 toexist,‘twoconditionsmustbefulfilled:(a)theoccupierisableexercise be exercised’.AccordingtoSylvainVité,foroccupationinthemeaningofArticle extends onlytotheterritorywheresuchauthorityhasbeenestablishedandcan when it is actually placed under the authority of the hostile army. The occupation Article 42ofthe1907HagueRegulationsreads:‘Territoryisconsideredoccupied authorized Russianmilitaryinterventioninaletterdated1March. Ukraine, giventhatdeposedUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychhadseemingly March 2014,theissuearoseofwhetherornotRussianFederationwasoccupying Judgment (Trial Chamber)(Case No. IT-98-34-T), 31March 2003, §217, footnotes omitted. §§1180,2014, citingICTY, Prosecutor v. MladenNaletilic,aka ‘Tuta’and Vinko Martinovic, aka ‘Štela’, ICC, the occupying power hasissued andenforced directions to thecivilianpopulation. a temporary administration hasbeen established over theterritory; time to make theauthorityof theoccupying power felt; the occupying power hasasufficientforce present, orthecapacity to send troops withinareasonable affect thereality of occupation; not beconsidered asoccupied territory. However, sporadic local resistance, even successful, doesnot the enemy’s forces have surrendered, been defeated orwithdrawn. Inthisrespect, battle areas may authorities, whichmust have been rendered incapable of functioningpublicly; the occupying power must beinapositionto substitute itsown authorityfor thatof theoccupied Vité, ‘Typology of Armed Conflicts inInternational Humanitarian Law’, 74. IntheKatanga case, the ICC Trial Chambercited withapproval trialjudgmentinthecase theICTY See, e.g., Euromaidan Press, ‘Russia Provides UNSecurity Council withAppeal by “Legal President” ICRC, ‘International Humanitarian Law andtheChallengesof Contemporary Armed Conflicts’, Report Prosecutor v. GermainKatanga, Judgment(Trial Chamber)(Case No. ICC-01/04-01/07), 7March a particularsituationquitecomplex. during andafterthe phase out period – may render the legal classification of with noarmedresistance. the territoryofaHighContractingParty,evenifsaidoccupationmeets The Conventionshallalsoapplytoallcasesofpartialortotaloccupation 16

17 Arguably,however,the 19 However,with-

18 In In

PART 1 : SUMMARY 19 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 20 racist regimesintheexerciseoftheirrightself-determination’. peoples arefightingagainstcolonialdominationandalienoccupation controversially, anIACmayalsoexistwherethereisarmedconflict‘inwhich same asforanIAC—thatistosay,muchlowerthanitNIAC. of armed violence for such a conflict to occur is not settled,butis probably the directly inhostilities. 23 University Press, 2005, §3.4.2. regulated by Common Article3.UKMinistry of Defence, The Manual of theLaw of Armed Conflict, Oxford 22 vociferously whenit was adopted. Ithasnever been applied inpractice. 21 translation.) ICC, Prosecutor v. Germain Katanga, Judgment(Trial Chamber),7March §§1177 2014, etseq. tilities oppose states through theirrespective armiesorthrough others actingontheirbehalf.’ Unofficial vers d’autres acteurs agissant enleurnom.’(‘An international armed conflict exists whenever armed hos- nal existe dèslorsquedeshostilités armésopposent desÉtats àtravers leursarmées respectives ouàtra- 2014 01/06), 14 March 2012, §541. The Trial Chamberexpressly approved theTadić dicta onthisissue. Inthe Lubanga case: ICC, Prosecutor v. Thomas Lubanga Dyilo,Judgment(Trial Chamber)(Case No. ICC-01/04- 2000, §§149–50. See similarlytheviews of theTrial Chamberof theICC initsjudgmentthe2012 §§84 and115 etseq; ICTY, Prosecutor v. Blaškić,Judgment(Trial Chamber)(Case No. IT-95-14-T), 3March 20 law giventherequisiteintent(mensrea). an indiscriminateattack),andbotharewarcrimesundercustomaryinternational failing todistinguishinmilitaryoperationsbetweenciviliansandcombatants(i.e. and schools).DeliberatelytargetingciviliansisaseriousviolationofIHL,astoo vilian population,individualcivilians,orcivilianobjects(e.g.homes,hospitals, or IndiaandPakistanin2013)totargetonlymilitaryobjectivesnottheci- es ‘parties to aconflict’(in other words,thewarringparties, i.e. IsraelandSyria all. Thebasisofthelawarmedconflictisruledistinction.Thisoblig- and their1977AdditionalProtocols,representcustomarylawapplicableto IAC aresetoutinthe1907HagueRegulationsand1949GenevaConventions The basicprinciplesandrulesofIHLapplicabletotheconducthostilitiesinan tentially targeteachother’sarmedforcesanywhere. parallel toanyIAC,wheremilitarilynecessarystatesinvolvedinanIACmaypo- NIAC (seebelow).Withoutprejudicetojusadbellum,therulesofwhichapplyin The geographical scope of an IAC is potentially far broader than is the case for a eign stateisdeemedtohave‘overallcontrol’overtheactionsofANSA. (ANSA) operatinginanotherstatewhenthatsupportissosignificantthefor- There mayalsobeanIACwhenonestatesupportsarmednon-stateactor C. SummaryIHL B. The Geographical Sc See Art.1(4), 1977 Additional Protocol I.The U.S.andanumberof other states opposed thisprovision Civiliansonlylose their ‘general protection’ against hostilities if, andfor suchtimeas,they participate This is not, though, the position of the UK, which argues thatthethreshold is thesameas for a NIAC See, e.g., ICTY, Katanga judgment, theICC Trial Chamberfurtherapproved thisposition:‘Unconflit arméinternatio- Prosecutor v. Tadić, Judgment (Appeals Chamber)(Case No. IT-94-1-A), 15 July 1999, Rules Governing ope of an Interna Interna 23 tional Armed Conflict tional Armed Conflict 21 Thethreshold 22 20 More The use of indiscriminate weapons, take part in hostilities. Recruiting children less than 15 years of age is a war crime. Children mustnotberecruitedintoarmedforcesorgroupsnorallowedto military advantageareprohibited. ly orseverallywouldbe‘excessive’comparedtotheexpected‘concreteanddirect’ injuries amongthecivilianpopulation,ordamagetoobjects,whichjoint- attacks againstlawfulmilitaryobjectivesthatmaybeexpectedtocausedeathsor damage tocivilianobjects).Inaddition,accordingtheruleofproportionality, all feasibleprecautionsinanyattacktominimizeciviliandeathsandinjuries(and conduct ofhostilities,internationallawalsorequiresthatpartiestoaconflicttake Although itisunderstoodthatciviliancasualtiesmaynotalwaysbeavoidedinthe 25 indiscriminate, andcertainly there isnogeneral agreement asto whichweapons mightfulfil thiscriterion. between civilianandmilitary targets’. It has sometimes been claimed thatnoweapons are ‘inherently’ its 1996Nuclear Weapons Advisory Opinion,referred to ‘weapons thatare incapable of distinguishing 24 conflicts and extends beyond the cessation of hostilities until a generalconclusion ICTY inthe The precise duration of an international armed conflict is a difficult issue. The occupies. is bindingontheoccupyingstateextraterritoriallywithregard totheterritoriesit 43 oftheHagueRegulations).Inaddition,internationalhuman rightslaw(HRL) prior totheoccupationascloselypossible,andforproviding security(Article istering thelocallifeofpopulationunderitscontrol,maintainingitaswas remains inforce.Atthesametime,occupyingpowerisresponsibleforadmin- the territoriesitoccupiesandlocallawthatwasapplicablepriortooccupation is reached.Duringthisperiod,theoccupantdoesnotenjoysovereignrightsover is supposed to be a temporary situation, which lastsuntila political agreement international law.Theunderpinningofthelawmilitaryoccupationisthatit the 1949GenevaConventionIV,1977AdditionalProtocolI,andcustomary ritory, applicablelawissetoutinthe1907HagueRegulations(Articles42–56), Subject tothediscussionabove,duringabelligerentoccupationofforeignter- erential treatment. assistance tothecivilianpopulation,womenandchildrenarebegrantedpref- status ofprisonerwar,withtheassociatedrightsandobligations. Captured combatants(primarily,membersofarmedforces)aretobeaccordedthe who arehorsdecombat,becauseofsickness,wounds,detention,oranyothercause. visions, partiestoaninternationalconflictmustrespectandprotectcombatants injury orunnecessarysuffering’,isprohibited.Inaddition,amongmanyotherpro- E D . When Does an Interna . SummaryIHL These are set out,inparticular, in1949Geneva Convention III. The Rome Statute (Art.8(2)(a)(xx))refers to ‘inherently’ indiscriminate weapons, whiletheICJ, in Tadić Rules Governing case suggestedthatIHLapplies‘fromtheinitiationof...armed tional Armed Conflict 24 a Situa or weapons ‘of a nature to cause superfluous tion of Belligerent End? Occupa 25 Inproviding tion

PART 1 : SUMMARY 21 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 22 armed violencehasbeenreached. The requirementof‘protracted armed violence’meansthatacertainthresholdof armed group,orbetweensuchgroups.Theseelementsarediscussedin turn. the violencemusttake place betweenthearmedforcesandatleastoneorganized group (orbetweensuchgroupswithinastateoracrossstate’sborders);and,third, ducted bygovernmentforcesandatleastoneorganizednon-governmentalarmed tion. First,theremustbe‘protractedarmedviolence’;second,violencecon- There arethreecumulativerequirementsforanNIAC,accordingtotheTadićdefini- international border. armed violenceoccursbetweentwoormoreorganizedgroupsacrossan explicitly foreseenbytheTadić Conference of the Red Cross andRed Crescent, 2011, p8. Humanitarian Law andtheChallengesof Contemporary Armed Conflicts’, Report for the31st International 29 28 §17.June 2004, Prosecutor v. SlobodanMilošević, Decision onMotion for Judgmentof Acquittal (Case No. IT-02-54-T), 16 and LahiBrahimaj, Judgment(Trial Chamber)(Case No. IT-04-84-T), 3April2008, §§40etseq; ICTY, Opinion andJudgment,7May 1997, §562; see also ICTY, Prosecutor v. RamushHaradinaj, IdrizBalaj, the word’s meaning inordinary parlance isoneof duration, not intensity). ICTY, Prosecutor v. Tadić , to ‘protracted’ armed whenqualifying violence was aninsistence ontheintensity of conflict (even though 27 (Appeals Chamber), 2October 1995,§70. 26 and intensearmedviolence In accordancewiththedefinitioninTadićcase,aNIACissituationofregular 3. Non-Interna of peaceisreached’inthecaseanIAC. conflict withoutsuchanoscillationamountingtoactivecessationofhostilities. fluctuation in regularity and extent of armed violence during a situation of armed tilities haveeffectivelyceasedistooexpansive.Nonetheless,therewilloftenbea conduct ofhostilitiespertaintoactscommittedafterthepointatwhichactivehos- the treatmentofdetainees,anotionthatlawarmedconflictrulesgoverning ly extendbeyondtheactivecessationofhostilities,includingthosepertainingto nature, areexplicitlydeterminednottoamountarmedconflicts. cluding ‘riots,isolatedandsporadicactsofviolence’,otherasimilar armed groupswithinastate.Situations of ‘internaldisturbancesandtensions’,in- also occurinasituationofintensearmedviolencebetweentwoormoreorganized army, andoneormoreorganizednon-governmentalarmedgroups.ANIACwill A . Criteria for theExis In the trial judgment in Tadić Art.1(2),1977 Additional Protocol II;see also Art.8(2)(d), 1998Rome Statute. ICTY, Prosecutor v. Tadić, Decision on the Defence Motion for Interlocutory Appeal on Jurisdiction AstheICRC hasnoted, violence ‘the must reach acertain level of intensity’. ICRC, ‘International In anarmedconflictofinternalormixedcharacter,theseclosely relatedcri- tional Armed Conflict tence of a Non-Interna and other cases, confirmed the ICTY that the specific meaning it gave 27 betweenthesecurityforcesofastate,especially decision, aNIACwillalsooccurwhereintense 29 AccordingtotheICTY: 26 WhilecertainIHLobligationswillclear- tional Armed Conflict 28 Althoughnot Kosovo LiberationArmyandtheSerbforces,statedthat that anarmedconflictexistedinKosovobeforetheendofMay1998between individual confrontations’. tive factorsforanarmedconflictinclude‘thenumber,durationandintensityof an organizedcrimenetwork,canbeapartytoarmedconflict. an organizedarmedgroupwhoseaimispurelylucrative,suchasadrugscartelor territory ofasinglestate. Armed ConflictstatesthatNIACsare‘armedconfrontations’occurringwithinthe tual combat. ‘conflict’ and ‘between’ is, The thirdcriterionispotentiallycontroversial.Inherentinthenotionofwords a particularpoliticalorreligiousagendaforittobepartyanNIAC; respect toanarmedconflict.Itisnot,however,necessarythatgrouphave consequence forthedeterminationoftheirstatusunderinternationallawwith ti-government elementsbystatesorotherentities;suchdesignationshaveno groups are sometimescalled rebels, insurgents, terrorists,criminal gangs, or an- forces orotherorganizedarmedgroups,suchgroupsare‘party’toanNIAC.These erations. Whenengagedinregularandintensearmedconfrontationswith logistical capacitythatgivesthemthecapabilitytoconductregularmilitaryop- typically possessanduseavarietyofweapons,whichcontrolsignificant Organized armedgroupsarethosewithacommand-and-controlstructure,that 36 the%20Law%20of%20NIAC.pdf. Conflict With Commentary, 2006, p 3,http://www.iihl.org/iihl/Documents/The%20Manual%20on%20 35 34 in footnote 1592. Šljivančin, Judgment (Trial Chamber) (Case No. IT-95-13/1-T), 27 September 2007, §407, and sources cited territory and over a period of time’. See, e.g., ICTY, intensity criterion: seriousness ‘the of attacks andpotential increase inarmed clashes,theirspread over 33 32 (Case No. IT-03-66-T), 30November 2005, §170. 31 30 footnote omitted. See, e.g., ICTY, Prosecutor v. Fatmir Haradin Limaj, Bala, and Isak , Judgment Musliu (Trial Chamber) Incases before theICTY, theTribunal hastended to consider thenumberof clashesaspart of the International Institute of Humanitarian Law, The ManualontheLaw of Non-International Armed Vité, ‘Typology of Armed Conflicts inInternational Humanitarian Law’, 11. ICTY, ICTY, Prosecutor v. Haradinaj, Judgment(Trial Chamber)(Case No. IT-04-84-T), 3April2008, §49. ICTY, Prosecutor v. Tadić. varied operationsisafurtherindicatorofitslevelorganisation. Kosovka Mitrovicainthenorth....TheabilityofKLAtoengagesuch Kosovo–Macedonian borderinthesouthandmunicipalityofMitrovice/ in the west, to near Prishtina/Pristina in the east, to Prizren/Prizren and the with substantial Serbian forces in areas from the Kosovo–Albanian border by theendofMay1998KLAunitswereconstantlyengagedinarmedclashes activities, whicharenotsubjecttointernationalhumanitarianlaw. conflict frombanditry,unorganizedandshort-livedinsurrections,orterrorist teria areusedsolelyforthepurpose,asaminimum,ofdistinguishinganarmed Prosecutor v. Bala, and Musliu, Judgment (Trial Limaj, Chamber) 30 November 2005, §172, 33 InitsjudgmentintheHaradinajcase,ICTYstatedthatindica- 35 The War Report 34 IntheLimaj TheSanRemoManualontheLawofNon-International Prosecutor v. Mile Mrkšić, Miroslav Radić, and Veselin case, theICTYTrialChamber,infinding argues, a requirement that there be ac- 32 31 36 therefore, 30

PART 1 : SUMMARY 23 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 24 concerted orinisolation’. stituted bythecommissionofordinarycrimesincludingactsterrorismwhether conflict” ofitselfandinitscontextdenotesasituationkindwhichisnotcon- 1977 AdditionalProtocolI,theUKenteredadeclarationwhereby‘theterm“armed classification ofIAC. an individualattackdoesnotamounttoarmedconflictasitmayunderthe in armedconflictsofanon-internationalcharacterisparticularlydifficult,since This istooexpansive,eventhoughidentifyingthe‘cessationofactivehostilities’ NIAC wouldendbythemerefactthatoneofPartiesceases toexistorincase The 2016CommentaryoftheGenevaConventions1949 also specifiedthata scope-application-ihl-non-international-armed-conflicts-end-part-2/. Part 2’,OpinioJuris,19February http://opiniojuris.org/2014/02/19/guest-post-bartels-temporal- 2014, 41 to (non-international) armed conflict. 40 39 §26. 16 June2004, Decision onMotion for Judgmentof Acquittal (Rule 98bisDecision) (Trial Chamber)(Case No. IT-02-54-T), rather to set outtheUK’s understanding of theterm. See also e.g. ICTY, Prosecutor v. SlobodanMilošević , a ‘declaration’ because it does not seek to the terms modify of the Protocol with respect to the UK, but Sivakumaran refers to the‘understanding’ of theUKasa‘reservation’, butitismore accurately termed S. Sivakumaran, The Law of Non-International Armed Conflict, Oxford University Press, 2012, p233. http://www.icrc.org/ihl.nsf/NORM/0A9E03F0F2EE757CC1256402003FB6D2?OpenDocument, cited in 38 37 the caseofinternalconflicts[i.e.NIACs],[until]apeacefulsettlementisachieved’. when aNIACiseffectivelyover.Accordingtothe More complicatedthanwithrespecttotheendofanIACisdetermination humanitarian law’. case andcitedaboveof‘terroristactivities,whicharenotsubjecttointernational pear tofallmoreaccuratelywithinthenotionexpressedbyICTYinTadić the armedorsecurityforcesofastate,isnot body-borne IEDs(BBIEDs),butwhichdoesnotengageindirect‘hostilities’with provised explosivedevices(IEDs),landmines,vehicle-borneIEDs(VBIEDs),or Thus, anarmedgroupthatconstructsandemplaces(ordeliverstoatarget)im- vanced byRogierBartels: no longerfulfilled,aNIACcanbesaidtohaveended.Thispositionhasbeenad- lishing infactthesesituationsisclearlychallenging,butwheneithercriterion group may, as a consequence, no longer fulfil the criterion of organization. Estab- to suchaconflictfragmentsoritsseniorcommandersarekilledcaptured,the not necessarilydailyorevenweekly.Further,whenanarmedgroupthatisparty B. When Does a Non-Interna These situationsare governed by theinternational law of law enforcement, including,inparticular, HRL. R.Bartels, ‘Temporal Scope of Application of IHL:When doNon-International Armed Conflicts End? Declaration of 28January1998, ICTY, Prosecutor v. Tadić. Asnoted above, inrelevant treaties ‘isolated andsporadic actsof violence’ explicitly donot amount tion’ and‘intensity’fallingbelowthethresholdsetforapplicationofIHL. reached, but rather by the more factual circumstance of the level of ‘organisa- that NIACsdonotnecessarilyendonlybyvirtueofapeacesettlementbeing 37 AsSandeshSivakumaranhasnoted,uponratificationofthe 40 ClashesbetweenpartiestoaNIACmustbefrequentbut 38 tional Armed Conflict engaged inaNIAC.Suchsituationsap- Tadić End? decision, IHLapplies‘in 41

sometimes (unhelpfully)termeda‘transnationalarmedconflict’.Morecontrover- associated forces’. was engagedina‘globalarmedconflict’againstwith‘theTaliban,al-Qaeda,and international law.SomeargumentshadbeenmadeinthepastbyUS,thatit This positiondoesnot,though,meanthataglobalizedNIACexistsasmatterof to another. strict geographicallimitation,atleastwithrespectto‘spill-over’fromoneterritory by thetreatyprovisions.Further,undercustomarylaw,thereisarguablynosuch the GenevaConventions,thereisverylittleterritorythatwouldnotbecovered that, asofNovember2016,allUnitedNations(UN)memberstateswerepartyto 47 ring intheterritory of one of the HighContracting Parties’ (author’semphasis). is ongoinggovernedbytheauthorityofastateparty. sions onlyapplytoasituationinwhichtheterritory on whichanarmedconflict that anarmedconflictislimitedtotheterritoryofasinglestateorprovi- in theterritoryofoneHighContractingParties’.Thiscanbetakentomean Common Article3tothe1949GenevaConventionsrefersanNIAC‘occurring spite theexistenceofaceasefire. of alastingcessationarmedconfrontationswithoutrealriskresumption,de- 46 45 1 inthisWar Report. ver, theObama Administration hasbeen quietlydropping thereference to theTaliban. See, e.g. Chapter 30 April 2012,DC, http://www.lawfareblog.com/2012/04/brennanspeech/. In thelast two years, howe- Strategy’, Remarks of JohnO. Brennan, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,Washington, forces, inresponse to the9/11 attacks.’ ‘The Ethicsand Efficacy of thePresident’s Counterterrorism international law, the United States is in an armed conflict withal-Qa’ida, the Taliban, andassociated and Counterterrorism (since March 2013, Director of theUSCentral Intelligence Agency): ‘As amatter of 44 University, 2003, p8.,at:http://www.hpcrresearch.org/sites/default/files/publications/Session3.pdf , Cambridge, January27–29, 2003, Program onHumanitarian Policy and Conflict Research atHarvard High-Level ExpertMeeting ontheReaffirmation andDevelopment of International Humanitarian Law, International Humanitarian Law inContemporary Conflicts’, Background Paper prepared for theInformal 43 xsp?action=openDocument&documentId=59F6CDFA490736C1C1257F7D004BA0EC. First Geneva Convention, 2016, §489-491, https://ihldatabases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Comment. R. Geiss andL.Gisel, ‘Article 3:Conflicts Not of anInternational Character’, ICRC, Commentary onthe 42 It is not contested here that an armed conflict may exist on ‘a single territory’, that, today,itmayhave‘acoreterritoryplusoverspillontodifferentterritory’, exist, atleast,asamatteroflaw’. must ‘haveaterritorialbase…;globalnon-internationalarmedconflictdoesnot law for an NIACto be simplyglobal. According to Sivakumaran, an armed conflict tainly crossinternationalborders,itisnotpossibleunderexisting C. The Geographical Sc Sivakumaran, The Law of Non-International Armed Conflict, p234. For ahelpful discussion of thisissue, see, e.g., D. Jinks,‘The Temporal Scope of Application of Sivakumaran, The Law of Non-International Armed Conflict, p234. L.Cameron, B.Demeyere, J-M.Henckaerts, E.LaHaye andI.Müller, withcontributions by Droege, C. Indeed, thetext of Common Article3refers to ‘armed conflict not of aninternational character occur According to John Brennan, for example, thenAssistant to theUSPresident for HomelandSecurity 44 NosuchconflictexistsunderIHL/ICL.WhileanNIACcancer- ope of a Non-Interna 42 45 tional Armed Conflict 43 Ifitisthelatter,given 46 or or 47 -

PART 1 : SUMMARY 25 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 26 NIAC are also bound byboth applicable treaty or enforced disappearances —can never bejustified.’ and non-State collective entities,includingarmed groups. Acts violatingiuscogens —for instance, torture human rightsobligationsconstituting peremptory international law (iuscogens) bindStates, individuals UN doc A/HRC/19/69, 22February 2012, §106: ‘In this regard, the commission notes that, at a minimum, 52 colour, sex, language,religion orsocial origin’. other obligations underinternational law anddonot involve discrimination solely ontheground of race, required by theexigencies of thesituation,provided that suchmeasures are not inconsistent with their and the existence of which isofficially proclaimed’. Any derogation must be only ‘totheextent strictly and Political Rightsmay onlyoccur of publicemergency in‘time whichthreatens thelife of thenation 51 concerted military operations’ andto implementtheProtocol. command; andthatthey control apart of theterritory so asto enablethemto ‘carry outsustained and vernment andopposing‘dissident’ armed forces; thatthedissident armed forces are underaresponsible plication of the1977 Additional Protocol II,namely:confrontation between thearmed forces of thego- the Geneva Conventions of 12August 1949,1987, Certain p1348. criteria are explicitly required for ap - of non-international armed conflict’. ICRC, Commentary onthe Additional Protocols of 8June1977 to does not have exactly thesamefieldof application ascommon Article3,whichappliesinallsituations article, theICRC notes that the Protocol ‘only appliesto conflicts of acertain degree of intensity and 50 49 48 in certaincircumstances,the1977AdditionalProtocolII. all otherprovisionsofthelawarmedconflictapplicabletoanNIAC,aswellas, (by virtue of their universalapplication under customary international law) and groups. ThisalwaysincludesCommonArticle3tothe1949GenevaConventions IHL isapplicabletoallpartiestheconflict,whetherstateornon-statearmed tories’ thataregeographicallyunconnected. sial isthequestionofwhetheranarmedconflictmayexistacross‘multipleterri- UN AssistanceMissioninAfghanistan(UNAMA)statedFebruary2012that: human rights obligations, for examplewhere they control territory. For instance,the torture, andenforceddisappearances). least peremptoryHRLnorms(e.g.prohibitionsonsummaryorarbitraryexecutions, There isalsoincreasingacceptancethatnon-statearmedgroupsareboundbyat the legalframeworkdetermininglawfuluseofforce. is widelyregardedastheapplicablelaw,whileoutsidesuchareas,HRLarguably In areasinwhichhostilitiesarebeingactivelyconducted,thelawofarmedconflict those foreignstates. conflict appliestoanyhostileactbythenon-statepartyonterritoryof conflict involves foreign states intervening on behalf ofthatstate, the lawof armed NIAC existsontheterritoryofonestateagainstanon-statearmedgroup,andthat D . Summary Rules Applicable in a Non-Interna Derogations from other humanrights in accordance with the 1966 International Covenant on Civil See, e.g., Report of theIndependent International Commission of InquiryontheSyrian Arab Republic, The scope of application of 1977 Additional Protocol IIisset outinArt.1. Initscommentary on the Ibid. Vité, ‘Typology of Armed Conflicts inInternational Humanitarian Law’, 74. ternational humanrightslawincreasinglyrecognizesthatwherenon-State cannot formallybecomepartiestointernationalhumanrightstreaties,in- While non-StateactorsinAfghanistan,includingarmedgroups, 49 52 Theymayalsobeboundbyothercustomary 48 51 Accordingtoonetheory,wherea and customary human rights law. tional Armed Conflict 50 Statesengagedinan until provedguiltyaccordingtolaw. sentence. Everyonechargedwithacriminaloffenceshallbe presumedinnocent conduct agenuinedefence,andtobeableappealagainst both convictionand against him/her,tounderstandthecourtproceedings,haveopportunity essential judicialguarantees.Thisincludesadefendant’srighttoknowthecharges No onemaybeconvictedorsentenced,exceptpursuanttoafairtrialaffordingall grading treatmentisprohibited.Summaryorarbitraryexecutionsare gious beliefs.Murder,torture,rape,bodilyinjury,orothercruel,humiliating,de- conflict mustbetreatedhumanelyandinaccordancewiththeirsex,age,reli- deprivation oflibertyisprohibited.Anyonedetainedbyapartytoanarmed Enforced disappearancesareprohibited.Hostagesshallnotbetaken.Arbitrary damage tocivilianobjects. and inanyeventtominimize,incidentallossofcivilianlife,injurycivilians, military advantageanticipated.Allfeasibleprecautionsmustbetakentoavoid, civilian objects,oracombinationofboth,inrelationtotheconcreteanddirect prohibited iftheymaybeexpectedtocause‘excessive’harmeitherciviliansor Attacks againstlawfulmilitaryobjectives(militarypersonnelorequipment)are tute awarcrime. or unnecessarysuffering’,isprohibited.Violatinganyoftheserulesmayconsti- Use ofindiscriminateweapons,orweapons‘ofanaturetocausesuperfluousinjury between militaryobjectivesandciviliansand/orcivilianobjects,areprohibited. military objectives. Indiscriminate attacks, namely attacks that do not distinguish tack civilianobjects.Civilianobjectsareanybuildingsorareasthatnotlawful Recruiting childrenlessthan15yearsofageisawarcrime.Itprohibitedtoat- recruited intoarmedforcesorgroups,norallowedtotakepartinhostilities. because ofsickness,wounds,detention,oranyothercause.Childrenmustnotbe in hostilities,oranyfighterwhohaslaiddownhisarmsishorsdecombat conduct ofhostilitiesitisprohibitedtoattackanyciviliantakingnodirectpart Accordingly, basedonapplicablerulesofthelawarmedconflict,during Non-State Actors inAfghanistan’, 93 IRRC 881(2011), pp47–79. 2012, p iv. See also inthisregard Bellal, G. Giacca, A. andS. Casey-Maslen, ‘International Law and Armed 53 arguably aparallelinternational armedconflictbetweenUkraineandRussia,as in linewiththeRuleofLaw ArmedConflictsProject(rulac.org),thatthereis In additiontotheconflictbetweenIndiaandPakistan,TheWarReport considers, The followingtablessummarizethe13IACsand36NIACsthat tookplacein2016. 4. Which Armed Conflicts Occurred in 2016? A . Interna See, Afghanistan: e.g., UNAMA, AnnualReport 2011, Protection of Civiliansin Armed Conflict , February bound byinternationalhumanrightsobligations. actors, suchastheTaliban,exercisedefactocontroloverterritory,theyare tional Armed ConFLicts in 2016 53

PART 1 : SUMMARY 27 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 28 no determinationastowhetherbelligerentoccupationisoccurring in thesecases. of TibetbyChina, Continuity_Brief.pdf. acting Government of the Hawaiian Kingdom’,4August 2013, http://www.hawaiiankingdom.org/pdf/ 684 (2002) and Dr. David Keanu Sai,‘The Continuity of theHawaiian State andtheLegitimacy of the the Hawaiian Kingdom’sClaimto Continuity asanIndependent State underInternational Law’, 1655- Kingdom.pdf; P. DumberryP., ‘The Hawaiian KingdomArbitration Case andtheUnsettled Question of for the Acting Council of Regency’, 12 July 2002, https://hawaiiankingdom.org/pdf/Continuity_Hawn_ 56 asia-pacific-16689779 55 america-18425572 54 UK oftheFalklandIslands/Malvinas(Argentinaclaimsthisassovereign territory), Other belligerentoccupationsthathavebeenallegedincludethe occupationbythe Table 2.Belligerentoccupationsin2016 the precedingyears(2015and2014). The number(10)anddetailofbelligerentoccupationsin2016wasthesameas Table 1.Active conflictsin2016 Saudi Arabia,Turkey,UnitedArabEmiratesandtheKingdom) Belgium, Canada,Denmark,France,Germany,Italy,Jordan,Morocco,Netherlands, states composingtheinternationalcoalitionconductingairstrikesinSyria(USA, well asaseriesofinternationalarmedconflictsbetweenSyriaandthedifferent 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 4 1 C C onflict no. onflict no. See, e.g., BBC News, ‘Tibet Profile —Overview’, 13November http://www.bbc.com/news/world- 2014, See, e.g., M.Craven, ‘Continuity of theHawaiian Kingdom:BeingaPortion of aLegal BriefProvided See, e.g., BBC News, ‘Falkland IslandsProfile’, 3January2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin- Western Sahara Ukraine S Palestine Moldova L Georgia Eritrea C S Ukraine Azerbaijan India andPakistan L L 55 ebanon ocation ofoccupation ocation ofconflict yria yria yprus andofthestateHawaiibyUSA. Morocco Russia Israel Israel Russian F Israel Russian F Ethiopia Turkey International coalition v. S Ukraine v. Russia Armenia India v. Pakistan Occupier Parties to conflict ederation ederation 56

The WarReportmakes yria 54

e Islami’inSeptember2016. and FARC,aswellas,arguably,betweenAfghanistanthegroupknown‘Hezb in 2015betweenTurkeyandthePKK.Aconflictended2016Colombia At leastatotalof36NIACsin20statesoccurred2016.Anewconflictbrokeout B. Non-Interna 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 C onflict no. C S S S S S Sudan Sudan S. udan Somalia Philippines Pakistan Nigeria Myanmar Myanmar Mali Libya Libya Iraq India Egypt DRC DRC DRC DRC C C Afghanistan Afghanistan Afghanistan Afghanistan onflict location yria yria yria yria yria olombia olombia tional Armed ConFLicts in 2016 Free S YPG/P S S S Sudan v. Justice andE Sudan v. SPLM/ South udanv. SudanPeople’s Liberation Army(dissident faction) Somalia, Ethiopia,Kenya, Uganda,andUSAv. al- Philippines v. AbuSayyaf Pakistan v. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)andTTPsplinter groups Nigeria v. Boko Haram Myanmar v. various armedgroups, incl.MNDAA Myanmar v. Harakah al- Ansar Dine Mission inMali(MINUSMA)v. al-QaedaintheIslamicMaghreb (A Mali andUnited NationsMultidimensionalIntegrated S Libya (withsupportoftheUSA)v. IslamicS Libya v. Libya DignityAlliance, LibyaDawn/ Ansaral- Iraq v. IslamicS India v. Naxalite Maoists Ansar Beital-Maqdis) E DRC vTheNdumaDefense ofC DRC v. TheNdumaDefense ofC Libération duRwanda (FDLR) DRC (withsupportofMONUSCO) v. F Libre etSouverain (APCLS) DRC v. AlliedDemocratic F C C Afghanistan v. IslamicS Afghanistan v. HezbeIslami(untilSept.) Afghanistan v. HaqqaniNetwork Afghanistan v. Quetta Shura Taliban Parties to conflict yria, Russia v. IslamicS yria v. Haiy’aTahrir al- yria, Russia v. Free S gypt v. Wilayat Sinai(‘ olombia v. NationalLiberation Army(ELN) olombia v. FARC (untilNovember) yrian Armyv. Hezbollah J vIS A-North tate (IS) yrian Army quality Movement (JEM) Sham (former al-Nusra front) Y tate inAfghanistan (Khorasan Branch, IS-K) tate (IS) aqin tate ofSinai’or‘Province ofSinai’,knownas orces/ A lliance desPatriotesC pourun ongo-R ongo (NDC) orces Démocratiques pourla énové (NDC tate , KNLA Shabaab -R) Sharia tabilization QIM), ongo

PART 1 : SUMMARY 29 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 30 49 48 47 46 45 44 Y Y Y Ukraine Turkey Thailand emen emen emen Y al-Houthi v. al-QaedaintheArabian Peninsula A Y Ukraine v. DonetskPeople’s R Turkey v. Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK) Thailand v. BarisanR emen v. A emen v. al-Houthi Q AP evolusi Nasionalindependence movement epublic &LuhanskPeople’s R Q AP epublic PART 1 : SUMMARY 31 The War R Theepor Wart :R Aeporrmedt: A Conflirmed Conflicts ctins 2016in 2016 3232 see pp28-31 above. an impact onthelegal situationof thearmed conflict concerned. For acomplete list of armed conflicts, 57 of Sele The selection of armed conflicts hasbeen madeaccording to relevant facts which,we believe, have cted Key Developments 57 Armed Conflicts in 2016 in P t 2 ar

strikes bythecoalitionandTurkeyonSyrianterritory. and Turkey,duetotheabsenceofSyriangovernment’sconsentaerialair armed conflict between Syria and members of the US-led international coalition conflict againsttheIslamicStategroup.Second,thereisarguablyaninternational an internationalcoalitionledbytheU.S.isinvolvedinanon-internationalarmed different rebelgroupsandthegroupthatcallsitselfIslamicState.Inaddition, ish militia.Therearealsoon-goingnon-internationalarmedconflictsbetween of rebelgroups,includingtheFreeSyrianArmy,IslamicStategroupandKurd- and itsalliesareinvolvedinnon-internationalarmedconflictsagainstawidearray ternational armedconflictstakingplaceintheterritory.TheSyriangovernment fall underadoublequalification.First,therearemultipleandoverlappingnon-in- org), TheWarReport2016takesthepositionthatdifferentconflictsinSyria In linewiththeGeneva’sAcademyRuleofLawinArmedconflictsProject(rulac. Classification oftheconflicts: 1. S http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14703856. 59 comment-page-1/. against-a-non-state-armed-group-trigger-an-international-armed-conflict-and-why-does-this-matter/ Why doesthisMatter?’, Talk, EJIL 18October 2016, at:http://www.ejiltalk.org/when-does-the-use-of-force- ‘When DoestheUse of Force Against aNon-State Armed Group Trigger anInternational Armed Conflict and openDocument&documentId=BE2D518CF5DE54EAC1257F7D0036B518. See onthisissue, DapoAkande, and theterritorial State’, §260 https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/Comment.xsp?action= of theterritorial State, itwould amountto aninternational armed conflict between theintervening State conflict involving those States. Shouldthethird State’s intervention be carried outwithouttheconsent States asitaffects thedetermination of theinternational ornon-international character of thearmed sence orabsence of consent isessential for delineating theapplicable legal framework between thetwo 58 of Inquiry,establishedbytheHumanRightsCouncil,initsfirst reportinNovem- and otherformsorill-treatment.TheUNIndependentInternational Commission militia knownasShabbiha,engagedinexcessiveuseofforce,kidnappings,torture forces respondedviolentlyand,injointoperationswithsecurity forcesandallied ing forreformsandtheoverthrowingofPresidentAssad’s regime. Government Anti-government protestseruptedinSyriaMarch2011,withdemonstratorscall- section. Syria’s profileinTheWarReportisanalysedtheinternationalarmedconflict A armed c Sele . His According to the 2016 ICRC Commentary on Article 2 of the Geneva Conventions of 1949: ‘The pre- Unless otherwise stated, thissection is based on BBC News, ‘Syria Country Profile’, 5December 2016, yria:g Increasin t ory of the Conflict cted interna onflicts F 59 oreign Involvement tional 58 Forthesakeofconcision, in the Confli ct

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 33 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 34 Aleppo hadincreasedinJuly2016,withthedeathtollstandingataround448 they wouldcoordinatetheirefforts. Syrian army),andtheNationalCouncilannounced,inDecember2011,that opposition group,theFreeSyrianArmy(composedlargelyofdefectorsfrom and thehaltingofhostilities. Kofi AnnanasJointSpecialEnvoywiththemandatetobringanegotiatedpeace of Aleppoforeighthourstoallowciviliansandrebelsfleethecity. Ministry announced that Russia and Syrian Forces would halt their bombardment html?ref=world&_r=1&mtrref=undefined. October 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/18/world/middleeast/aleppo-syria-russia-ceasefire. 69 edition.cnn.com/2016/07/28/middleeast/aleppo-syria-questions-ward/. 68 28 August 2016, http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/28/middleeast/aleppo-barrel-bomb-wake-bombed/. 67 offensive-against-aleppo-rebels. 27 September 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/27/syrian-troops-launch-ground- 66 65 un.org/News/Press/docs/2012/sgsm14124.doc.htm. Nations, League of Arab States onSyrian Crisis’, Press release SG/SM/14124, 23February 2012, www. 64 October 2011, https://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10403.doc.htm. on Anti-Government Protesters, Owing to Veto by Russian Federation, China’, press release SC/10403, 4 63 2013, www.cfr.org/syria/syrias-crisis-global-response/p28402. 62 4 (April2012). 61 A/HRC/S-17/2/Add.1, 23November 2011, §1. 60 manity’. ber 2011, called the abuses carried out by Syrian authorities ‘crimesagainsthu- U.S. and the EU had already instituted sanctions against the regime). suspended fromtheLeague,aswellbeingmadesubjectofsanctions(the aiming at ending theviolence, Syrian Government failed to cooperate and was In November 2011, despite initially agreeing to aLeagueof Arab States workplan spiral ofviolence. took backtherebel-heldcityofAleppo,afterintensecombat. In 2016,adramaticmilitarydevelopmentoccurredwhentheSyriangovernment sians plannedtobroadcastlivescenesofevacuation,whiletherebelsvowednot the Syriansituation, a yearofviolent clashes andthefailureto adopt aSecurityCouncilResolution on cluding 100children)asof28August. Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC), An Overview of Syria’s Armed Revolution , Vol. 5, No. E.McKirdy andB.Hosseini, ‘Syrian Barrel BombAttack: At Least 16 Killed atWake of Aleppo’, CNN, For adetailed account of thefacts, see theprevious editions of The War Report : 2012, 2013 and2014. UNSecurity Council, ‘Security Council Fails to Adopt Draft Resolution Condemning Syria’s Crackdown Z. Laub and J. Masters, ‘Syria’s Crisis and theGlobal Response’, Council on Foreign Relations, 3April I.Nechepurenko, ‘Assault onAleppoWill Haltfor 8Hours, Russia Says’, The New York Times, 17 C. Ward, C. ‘Aleppo Siege: Why Latest Developments Are SoSignificant’, CNN,28July2016, http:// E. Graham-Harrison, ‘Syrian Troops Launch Ground Offensive Against Aleppo Rebels’, UNSecretary-General, ‘Secretary-General, Kofi AnnanAppointed JointSpecial Envoy of United Report of theIndependentInternational Commission of InquiryontheSyrian Arab Republic, UNdoc 60 Theoppositionbecameprogressivelyorganizedwhenthemainarmed 65

63 theUNSecretary-GeneralandArabLeagueappointed 64 Sincethen,thecountryhasbeenplungedintoa 61

68 On20October2016,theRussianDefense 66 Thefightingin 62 69 Following The Guardian, TheRus- 67 (in- el heldsectionsofthecity. and about14%in2015 defense analystsatthink-tankIHSJane,ISlostabout12%ofitsterritoryin2016, September. government’s capturesofthedistrictmostsignificantregimeadvancesince ridor intothecity.TheUK-basedSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightscalled on thesouthwesternoutskirtsofAleppothatrunsalongregime-controlledcor- Syrian ceasefire. the endofceasefiredeal.InDecember,TurkeyandRussiabrokeredanationwide of diplomatic contacts with Russiain view ofrenewed violence inSyria,marking Committee (HNC).InOctoberhowever,theU.S.formallydeclaredsuspension US-supported coalitionofoppositionrebelgroups,includingtheHighNegotiations an agreementonestablishingaceasefirebetweentheSyriangovernmentand year. Palmyra, anancientSyriancitythathadbeenoccupiedbythegroupfornearlya the fightagainstIslamicStategroupwithnotablevictorieslikeseizureof On anotherfront,theSyriangovernmentforceshavebeenmakingadvancesin estimated 31,000peopledead,almostatenthofoverallwarcasualties. to theUN,itrepresentedoneoflongestsiegesinmodernwarfareandleftan four yearsoffighting,thebattleAleppoendedon13December2016.According vailed intherebelheldeasternpartsofAleppoforaboutthreeweeks.Finally,after leave thecity. December 2016, https://www.un.org/press/en/2016/sc12663.doc.htm. in Syria, Jump-Start Political Process, Adopting Resolution 2336(2016)’, press release SC/12663, 31 78 aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/russia-turkey-broker-nationwide-ceasefire-deal-161229154943609.html. 77 76 aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/isil-fighters-enter-syria-ancient-city-palmyra-161210175629614.html. 75 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/world/middleeast/palmyra-syria-isis.html. 74 unog/website/news_media.nsf/(httpPages)/E409A03F0D7CFB4AC1257F480045876E?OpenDocument. 73 syria-aleppo-russia-airstrikes.html?ref=world&mtrref=www.nytimes.com&_r=0. Syria’, 72 com/news/2016/11/syria-army-significant-gains-aleppo-161109053124711.html. 71 com/news/2016/10/russia-extends-humanitarian-pause-aleppo-attack-161019205535009.html. 70 in 2015-2016. With regardtopeacetalks,severalroundsofUNledintra-Syriantalkstookplace in supportofeffortsbyRussiaandTurkeytoendtheviolenceSyria. AlJazeera, ‘Syrian Army Makes Significant GainsinAleppo’, 9November 2016, http://www.aljazeera. UNOffice atGeneva, ‘Intra-Syrian Negotiations —Key Dates of thePeace Process’, http://www.unog.ch/ AlJazeera, ‘Russia, Turkey Broker “nationwide” Ceasefire Deal’, 30December 2016, http://www. AlJazeera, ‘ISILFighters Re-Enter Syria’s AncientCityof Palmyra’, 10 December 2016, http://www. B.Denten, ‘A Jewel inSyria Where Ruins Have Been Ruined by ISIS’,The New York Times , 4April2016, A. Barnard A. and I.Nechepurenko, ‘Airstrikes onAleppoResume asRussia Begins New Offensive in UNSecurity Council, ‘Security Council Supports Russian Federation-Turkey Efforts to EndViolence See UNOffice atGeneva, ‘Syria Peace Process’, http://www.unog.ch/Syria. Al Jazeera, ‘Russia Extends ‘Humanitarian Pause’ inAleppoAttack’, 19October 2016, http://www.aljazeera. 74 The New York Times , 15 November 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/16/world/middleeast/ IslamicState,however,re-capturedthecityinDecember2016.Accordingto 71 On15November2016,Russiaresumedairstrikesonthebesiegedreb- 76 70 InSeptember2016,foreignministersofRussiaandtheU.S.reached On9November2016theSyrianarmyclaimedittookoveradistrict 77 TheUNSecurityCouncilunanimouslyadoptedresolution2336 .75 72 Thefightingshatteredtherelativecalmthathadpre- 78 73

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 35 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 36 who calleduponmembersoftheSyrianarmytodefectandjoin them. released ontheinternetbyauniformedgroupofdesertersfrom theSyrianmilitary The FreeSyrianArmy’s(FSA)formationwasannouncedon29July2011inavideo a. Free Syrian Army and theKurdishSyrianarmedgroupsYPG-YPJ. lamic Stategroup,JabhatFatahAl-Sham(formerlyal-Nusra),Aharal-Sham, 2016 wereSyria,supportedbyRussiaandHezbollah,theFreeSyrianArmy,Is- The mainpartiestothedifferentnon-internationalarmedconflictsinSyria 2. Non-International ArmedConflicts the central region (Homs, Hama, and Rastan), the coast around Latakia, the south areas andinthecountryside.Forcesareactivenorth-west (Idlib,Aleppo), 30-50% throughdesertions,defectionsanddeaths. forces numberedaround300,000personnelbeforetheconflictandhaveshrunkby The current strength of the Syrian army is unknown.It is reported that the armed a. Syrian ArmedForces Saudi Arabia,Turkey,UnitedArabEmiratesandtheKingdom. Belgium, Canada,Denmark,France,Germany,Italy,Jordan,Morocco,Netherlands, members oftheUS-ledinternationalcoalition.Thestatespartcoalitionare The partiestotheinternationalarmedconflictin2016wereSyriaanddifferent 1. InternationalArmedConflict ing intra-SyriannegotiationsconvenedbytheUNinGenevaon23February2017. al monitoringbodytoenforcethe30Decemberceasefire,preparingforupcom- ended withanagreementamongthethreesponsorsoftalkstosetupatrilater- Kazakhstan. TheUN’sSpecialEnvoyforSyriaalsoattendedthediscussions,which rebel groupsattendedameetingsponsoredbyRussia,TurkeyandIraninAstana, From 23to25January2017,theSyriangovernmentdelegationandopposition War, March 2012, p9,www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Syrias_Armed_Opposition.pdf. 81 July 2011, www.joshualandis.com/blog/free-syrian-army-established-to-fight-the-syrian-army/. 80 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/18/us-syria-crisis-military-idUSKBN0HD0M420140918. 79 ing SyrianNationalCouncil. Free SyrianArmyagreeingtocoordinateitseffortswiththenon-violence-advocat - Druze. InDecember2011,theSyrianoppositionbecamemore unified,withthe ganisation alsoincludesbattalionsmadeupofKurds,Turkmen, Palestinians,and most oftheFSA’smembersareSunniArabs(Syria’slargest community), theor- B. P J. Holliday, ‘MiddleEast Security Report No. 3:Syria’s Armed Opposition’,Institute for theStudy of S. Westall, ‘Assad’s Army Stretched but Still Seen Strong in Syria’s War’, Reuters, 18 September 2014, J. Landis,‘Free Syrian Army Founded by Seven Officers to FighttheSyrian Army’, Syria Comment, 29 ar ties t o the Conflicts 81 TheFSAoperatesthroughoutSyria,bothinurban 79

80 Although Al-Sham, undertheleadershipofAbuBakral-Baghdadi. split fromAl-NusraandbeganactingunderthenameIslamicStateofIraq al-Jawlani, andtheleaderofal-Qaeda,Aymanal-Zaqahiri.InMay2013group declaration wasrejectedbyboththeleaderofJabhatAl-Nusra,AbuMohammed also knownastheIslamicStateofIraqandLevant.However,thisunilateral was merging with Jabhat Al-Nusra to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham, affiliated IslamicStateofIraq,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,announcedthathisgroup early 2013growingoutofal-QaedainIraq.InApril2013,theleader Under itsformername,IslamicStateinIraqandtheLevant(ISIL),ISwasformed c. Islamic State(IS) changed itsnameandannouncedsplitfromal-Qaeda. placed ontheSecurityCouncilal-Qaedasanctionslist.However,in2016,group formally pledgeditsallegiancetoal-QaedainApril2013.Thereafter,thegroupwas Iraq. ConsideredastheSyrianaffiliateofal-Qaedasinceitsinception,group er, AbuMohammedal-JawlaniisbelievedtobeaveteranoftheIslamicState al-Sham (formerNusraFront)announceditsformationinJanuary2012.Itslead- Reportedly setupwiththehelpofthenIslamicStateIraq,Haiy’aTahrir b. Haiy’a Tahrir al-Sham(formerJabhat Fateh al-Sham,formerNusra Front) the groundunderajointcommand. Free SyrianArmybrigadesandotherarmedgroupsmilitarizedgroupingson nents. However,itisnotpossibletotalkofeffectiveco-ordinationthevarious where theyoperate,tocoordinateoperationsagainsttheregimeandotheroppo- nating with the Free Syrian Army share power by forming coalitions in the areas Many ofthetensoperatingarmednon-Stateactorsaffiliatedorpartlycoordi- to gathercashandassetsworthup$2bn. activities, suchassmugglingandtheextortionoflocalbusinesses, haveenabledIS Iraq andeasternSyriacombinedwithincomefromforeign donors andcriminal and Mosul.Thefundsseizedthroughtheseinvasionsseizureofoilfieldsin in bothSyriaandIraq,capturingseveralmajorcities,includingRaqqa,Fallujah, from al-Qaeda, it expanded its operations in Syria and experienced military success (Daraa andHouran), the east(Dayr al-Zawr, Abu Kamal),andthe Damascus area. fighters-in-syria/. 85 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/15/iraq-isis-arrest-jihadists-wealth-power. 84 bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28749734. 83 edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/CTCSentinel-Vol5Iss41.pdf. 82 joined thegroup.IslamicStateclaimstohavefightersfrom UK,France,Germa- 30,000. 85Someestimatesstatethatabout80%ofWesternfighters inSyriahave the lastfiveyears.Estimatesofnumberfightersvaryfrom around12,000to Currently IS’sprecisesizeisunclear.Itsnumbershavesignificantly risenover BBC News, ‘Profile of IslamicState and Leader, AbuBakral-Baghdadi’,12August http://www. 2014, R. Barrett, D.H. Flood,‘An Overview of Syria’s Armed Revolution’, 5CTC Sentinel4(April2012), www.ctc.usma. M.Chulov, ‘How anArrest inIraq Revealed Isis’s $2bnJihadist Network’, The Guardian , 15June2014, Foreign Fighters in Syria, The Soufan Group, June http://soufangroup.com/foreign-2014, 84 83

Despite IS’sseparation 82

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 37 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 38 world/para/ypg.htm 89 88 https://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/523. 87 Rule of Terror: LivingunderISISinSyria, 14November §13. 2014, 86 bility of military action. Protection Units(YPG)andtheWomen’s(YPJ)holdresponsi- and isthedefactogoverningauthorityinKurdishareas,whichPeoples’ 2012. TheDemocraticSelf-AdministrationinRojavawasformedJanuary2014 the Al-NusraFront,sincegovernmentforceslargelywithdrewfromareasin been fightingIslamistarmedgroupsactiveinSyria,notablytheIslamicStateand YPG-YPJ is‘thedominantmilitaryforce’inKurdish-populatedSyria.Ithasmainly e. YPG-YPJ Security Councilal-Qaedasanctionslist. powerful rebelgroups.Thegrouphastiestoal-Qaedaaffiliates,butisnotonthe Movement of the Free Men of the Levant is considered one of the largest and most Ahrar al-Sham,alsoknownasHarakatal-Shamal-Islamiyya,ortheIslamic d. Ahraral-Sham civilians andjournalists,forciblyrecruitingfighters,includingchildren. ers duringmilitaryoperations,carriedoutkidnappingsandpublicbeheadingsof car bombs,tocausemassciviliancasualties,executedandtorturedcapturedfight- IS hasextensivelyusedexplosiveweapons,suchassuicideorremotecontrolled largely dominatedbyforeignfighters. sus. DespitetherecruitmentofthousandsSyriansISleadershipstructureis ny, andotherEuropeancountries,aswelltheUS,ArabworldCauca- estimates placethenumberataround30,000. used againstIsraelinthe2006war.StartingApril2013(and possiblyearlier), its capabilitiesnowexceedthoseoftheLebanesearmy,considerable firepower continued tostrengthenitsmilitarywing,theIslamicResistance. Insomeways, 1970s. AfterIsraelwithdrewin2000,Hezbollahresistedpressure todisarmand logical rootsstretchbacktotheShiaIslamicrevivalinLebanon inthe1960sand of IranduringtheIsraelioccupationLebanoninearly1980s, thoughitsideo- organization thatwieldsconsiderablepowerinLebanon.Itemerged withthehelp Hezbollah — the Party of God — is a Shi’a Islamist political, military, and social f. Hezbollah it alsoengagesinfightingwithothernon-statearmedgroups. the coalitioncalledSyrianDemocraticForces(SDF)tomainlyfightagainstIS,but ANSAs suchastheRevolutionaryArmyandSyriacMilitaryCouncil,created Stanford University, ‘MappingMilitant Organizations’, Geneva Call,‘Syria’, http://www.genevacall.org/country-page/syria/. GlobalSecurity.org, ‘Kurdish People’s Protection Unit YPG’, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ UN,Report of theIndependentInternational Commission of Inquiry ontheSyrian Arab Republic — 88 YPG declared it had 50,000 fighters though independent 86 87 89 YPG-YPJhas,togetherwithother expansion oftheYPGinsamearea. an armedgroupsintheiroffensesagainstIStheborderareaandtocontain the groupinSyria. the Islamic State group led by the U.S. and conducted further airstrikes targeting Islamic State(IS)and‘allterrorists’weretargets. In September2015Russiabeganlaunchingairstrikesagainstrebels,sayingthe lands, SaudiArabia,Turkey,UnitedArabEmiratesandtheKingdom. are Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Jordan, Morocco, Nether- tween TurkisharmedforcesandtheYPGduringoperation. alition haveconductedatotalof7,421inSyria. tributed 3,500troops,200specialforceagents. As ofFebruary2017,theU.S. and co- State ofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL)(Operation‘InherentResolve’). nounced theformationof a broadinternationalcoalitionto defeat TheIslamic conflict beganoverfiveyearsago.On10September2014,PresidentObamaan- Foreign involvementintheSyriancivilwarhassignificantlyincreasedsince of Shia-ledIran,inhisstruggleagainsttherebels. Hezbollah sentfightersacrossthebordertosupportPresidental-Assad,acloseally August 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKCN10Z07J. 97 06995, 8November 2016, p17, http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06995. 96 ISIS Stronghold’, The New York Times, 25August 2016, http://nyti.ms/2bFfeap. 95 www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33646314. against-isis-in-syria-reports; BBC News, ‘Turkey BombsIslamicState Targets inSyria’, 24 July2015, http:// Guardian, 24 July2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/24/turkish-jets-carry-out-strikes- 94 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/01/syria-airstrikes-everything-you-need-to-know. The Guardian, 1December 2015, world-middle-east-23849587; M.Weaver andJ. Borger ‘Syria Airstrikes: Everything You Need to Know,’ 93 92 91 world-middle-east-10814698. see also BBC News, ‘Profile: Lebanon’s HezbollahMovement’, 4December 2013, www.bbc.com/news/ Guardian, 30April2013, www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/30/hezbollah-syria-uprising-nasrallah; 90 2015. IS afteritlauncheditsfirstairstrikesagainstIslamicStategrouptargetsinJuly Turkey becameapartytothenon-internationalarmedconflictinSyriaagainst in the Conflict C. Key Developments in 2016:g Increasin U.S.Department of State, ‘The Global Coalition to Counter ISIL’, http://www.state.gov/s/seci/. H.Pamuk andU. Bektas, ‘Turkey Fires onU.S.-Backed Kurdish MilitiainSyria Offensive’, Reuters, 26 BBC News, ‘Syria Crisis: Where Key Countries Stand’, 30 October 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/ C. Mills,‘ISIS/Daesh:The C. Military Response inIraq andSyria’, House of Commons Library BriefingPaper U.S Department of Defence, at:https://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/0814_Inherent-Resolve T. Arango, Barnard A. Yeginsu, andC. ‘Turkey’s Military Plunges Into Syria, EnablingRebels to Capture C. Letsch, C. K. Shaheen and S.Ackerman, ‘Turkey Carries OutFirst Ever Strikes Against Isis inSyria’, The I.BlackandD. Roberts, ‘HezbollahisHelpingAssad FightSyria Uprising,Says Hassan Nasrallah’, The 94 InAugust2015,Turkeyannouncedthatithadjoinedthecoalitionagainst 95 TheoperationpursuedthedualobjectiveofsupportingSyri- 96 Reportedly,armedclashesbrokeoutbe- F oreign Involvement 92 93 90 Theotherstatesinthecoalition

97 TheSyriangov- 91 TheU.S.con-

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 39 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 40 investigation ofseriouscrimescommittedinSyriasince2011. General Assemblyadoptedaresolutionestablishingmechanismtoassistinthe Confronted ontheUNSCdeadlockissue,December21,2016,UN war crimes. situation inSyriatotheInternationalCriminalCourtforinvestigationofpossible Secretary-General BanKi-moonagainurgedtheUNSecurityCounciltorefer Name=worldNews. www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-warcrimes-idUSKBN15V1QU?feedType=RSS&feed 104 war-crimes-investigations. December 2016, https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/12/21/syria-un-general-assembly-adopts-resolution- 103 www.foxnews.com/world/2016/10/10/un-chief-again-urges-un-to-refer-syria-situation-to-icc.html 102 www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37611151. 101 www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34572756. 100 net/news/russia-bombs-islamic-state-held-town-syria-aids-turkish-advance-1956435883. ‘Russia BombsIS-heldTown inSyria, AidsTurkish Advance’, 29December 2016, http://www.middleeasteye. 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN13W0XQ; MiddleEast Eye, 99 www.syrianobserver.com/EN/News/31549/Syria_Condemns_Turkey_Breach_Sovereignty_Jarablus. 98 launch aninvestigationintoattacksonrebelheldeasternAleppo. prosecuted andconfirmeditwasworkingtofindawayfortheICCprosecutor In October 2016, the French President François Hollande called for Russia to be tional CriminalCourt(ICC). Syria isasignatorybutnotstatepartytothe1998RomeStatuteofInterna- the Syrianarmedforces. combat troops.It has alsobeenreportedthatIransentgroundtroopsinsupportof including logistical,technicaland financial support, as well as training and some tegic allies,andIranhasprovidedsignificantsupportfortheSyrianGovernment, Iran isalsoverymuchpresentintheSyrianconflict.andSyriaareclosestra- ernment condemnedtheTurkishoperation. responsible’. primarily war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide - and identify those nize andpreparefilesontheworstabusesthatamounttointernationalcrimes— met in Geneva in February 2017 with the objective to analyse information, orga- D . War Crimes Alle The Syrian Observer, ‘Syria Condemns Turkey’s Breach of Sovereignty inJarablus’, 25August 2016, http:// Reuters, ‘Turkish AirStrikes Kill23IslamicState Militants inSyria’s Al-BabRegion –Army’, 7December BBC News, ‘Syria Conflict: France Wants Russia onWar CrimesCharges, 10 October 2016, http:// HumanRightsWatch, ‘Syria: UNGeneral Assembly Adopts Resolution onWar Crimes Investigations’, 21 Fox News, ‘UNChiefAgain Urges UNto Refer theSyria Situationto ICC’, 10 October 2016, http:// S.Nebehay, ‘New U.N. Team Aimsto BringSyria War Crimesto Court’, Reuters, 16February 2016, http:// H.Bastani, ‘Iran QuietlyDeepens Involvement inSyria’s War’, BBC News, 20 October 2015, http:// 102 104

ga tions, Inves 100 tiga tions, and Prose 98 TheTurkishoperationisongoing. cutions 103 101 Thenewbody Soonafterthe 99

Azeris fromArmenia. from bothsides,andexpulsionofethnicArmeniansAzerbaijan of theterritoryAzerbaijan,morethan20,000casualties,massiverefugeeflows gorno-Karabakh. Thearmedconflictledtooccupationofmorethanone-seventh flict inFebruary1992betweenforcesfromArmeniaandAzerbaijanaswellNa- ris overthelong-disputedregionofNagorno-Karabakheruptedintoarmedcon- The re-emergenceofviolenceinthelate1980sbetweenethnicArmeniansandAze- by virtueofcontinuedArmenianoccupationAzerbaijaniterritory. Armenia andAzerbaijanwereinvolvedinaninternationalarmedconflict2016 Classification oftheconflict: 2. Na crimes inSweden,wherehehadtravelledandappliedforasylum. ing ofsevencapturedSyriansoldiersin2012wassentencedtolifeprisonforwar Finally, inaremarkablecase,formerSyrianrebelwhotookpartthemasskill- world-europe-17047328. europe-17405415, and ‘Azerbaijan Profile — Timeline’, 20 March 2012, www.bbc.co.uk/news/ europe-18270325, ‘Armenia Profile —Timeline’, 27 February 2013, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- 106 sakhanh-sentenced.html?_r=0. 16 February 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/16/world/europe/syrian-rebel-haisam-omar- 105 incidents alongtheLineofContactbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijan. ation remainsunsolvedwithregularviolationsoftheceasefire involvingarmed negotiations forapeacefulsettlementoftheconflict,Nagorno-Karabakh situ- Despite the20-year-longceasefire,whichismonitoredbyOSCE, andcontinued peacekeeping operation. self-governance aswellinternationalsecurityguaranteesthat wouldincludea and aninterimstatusforNagorno-Karabakhprovidingguarantees forsecurityand the returnofterritoriessurroundingNagorno-KarabakhtoAzerbaijanicontrol comprehensive settlementbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijancallinteraliafor ward in November 2007 in Madrid. The Principles aimed to serve as a basis for a The MinskProcessnegotiationsresultedinaproposalofBasicPrinciplesputfor- the RussianFederation,andU.S. and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group’s Co-Chair states, namely France, work oftheMinskProcessledbyPresidentsOrganizationforSecurity February 1992,attemptstosettletheconflicthavebeenmadeunderframe- A ceasefirebetweenthepartiestoconflictwassignedon12May1994.Since A . His C. Anderson, ‘Syrian C. Rebel Gets Life Sentence for Mass Killing Caught on Video’, See, e.g., BBC News, ‘Nagorno-Karabakh Profile’, 30May 2012, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- t bakh:gorno-Kara Severe Clashes inApril 2016 ory of the Conflict 106 105 The New York Times,

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 41 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 42 Azerbaijan allegedArmeniahadbeenusingwhite-phosphoruschemicalweapon. ued atasteadyratethroughout2015. down anArmenianhelicopterinNovember2014,andceasefireviolationscontin- www.cnsnews.com/news/article/azerbaijan-alleges-white-phosphorus-use-karabakh-fight 112 nakhchivan/27659695.html. Cease- Fire’, 7April 2016, http://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-armenia-karabakh-cease-fire-violation- 111 www.france24.com/en/20160405-minsk-group-austria-meeting-end-fighting-nagorno-karabakh. 110 nkr.,am/en/ceasefire-agreement/147/. 109 power.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=azerbaijan. 108 forces website iswww.mil.am/. power.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=armenia. The Republic of Armeniaarmed 107 bakh region119timeswithinaperiodof24hoursinthefirstweekApril2016. cused ArmenianbackedseparatistsofviolatingtheceasefireinNagorno-Kara- Soon afterthefightingbrokeout,on7April2016,Azerbaijan’sdefenseministryac- 10km intoNagornoKarabakh. to areas close to the Line of Contact (LOC) but artillery fire penetrated more than the frontlinebetweenKarabakhandAzerbaijan.Groundfightingwasconfined Between 1–5April2016,intensefightingbrokeoutinNagornoKarabakhallalong killing more than sixty people. In earlyApril2016,fightingresumedinviolationofthe1994ceasefirereportedly tary personnelandafurther210,000inreserve. Armenia wasestimatedbyonesourcetohavesome70,000activefrontlinemili- The partiestotheconflictwereArmeniaandAzerbaijan. wide arrayofconventionalweaponryispossessedbybothstates. back Azerbaijan‘untiltheend’. to serveasamediator,andTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogansaidhewould ers andwouldkeepMoscow’ssalesofarmstobothsides‘inbalance’.Iranpledged Moscow calledforanimmediateceasefire.Russiahinteditmaydeploypeacekeep- 70,000 activefrontlinemilitarypersonnelandafurther300,000inreserve. C. Key Developments in 2016: Severe Clashes in April 2016 B. P Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, ‘Azerbaijan Accuses Nagorno-Karabakh Separatists of Violating CNS News (AP), ‘Azerbaijan Alleges White-Phosphorus Use in Karabakh Fight’, 11 May 2016, http:// France 24, ‘Azerbaijan Agrees Truce withAuthoritiesinNagorno-Karabakh’, 5April2016, http:// Global Firepower, ‘Armenia Military Strength’, last updated 7March 2017, http://www.globalfire ar Global Firepower, ‘Azerbaijan Military Strength’, last updated 7March 2017, http://www.globalfire Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic, ‘Cease- Fire Agreement’, http:// ties t o the Conflict 109 Prior to this incident, Azerbaijani forces had shot 110 107 Azerbaijanisestimatedtohave 108 112 A 111

eos and pictures of his severed head posted on social networks. Yazidi-Armenian soldier,KyaramSloyanwhohadbeenkilledinaction, On 4April2016,itwasreportedthatAzerbaijaniforcesdecapitatedthebodyofa line ofcontactandamutualreadinesstoengageinpeaceprocess. leased announcinganagreementtoincreasenumberofOSCEmonitorsalongthe settlement inNagorno-Karabakh.Shortlyafterthetalks,ajointstatementwasre- from ArmeniaandAzerbaijanmetinSt.Petersburgtodiscussthepotentialfora Finally, inatrilateralmeetingheldbyRussianleaderVladimirPutin,Presidents The OSCEcondemnedtheviolenceaswell. at/?EOI%20-%20Statements. 119 Caucasian Knot, 26 April2016 ,http://www.eng.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/35390/. 118 117 http://ezidipress.com/en/karabakh-conflict-azerbaijani-soldiers-behead-ezidi-soldier-from-armenia/. 116 article1686450.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_04_09. The Sunday Times, 10 April 2016, http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Middle_East/ 36-killed-soldiers.html; D. Beliakov andM.Franchetti, ‘Former Russian States onBrinkof Renewing War’, 2016, http://armenpress.am/eng/news/842717/nagorno-karabakh-defense-ministry-releases-names-of- 115 Nagorno- Karabakh’, 20 June 2016, http://www.rferl.org/a/talks-on-nagorno-karabakh/27809257.html. 114 20160419-story.html. Los AngelesTimes, 19April2016, http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-nagorno-karabakh- 113 objects inNagorno-Karabakh. demning anyviolationofhumanrightsregardingciviliansandattacksoncivilian In April 2016 the European Ombudsman Institute (EOI) issued a statement con- asia/caucasus/azerbaijan/nagorno-karabakh-new-opening-or-more-peril More Peril?Reportn°239, 4 July2016,https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central- Further reading:InternationalCrisisGroup,Nagorno-Karabakh:NewOpening,or no tracesofviolenceweredetectedonthebodies. Armenian soldierswerehandedoverinthepresenceofinternationalobservers,and jani DefenseMinistrydeniedthisinformationandclaimedthatallthebodiesof bodies, lackofrespectfortheirprivacy,anddiscriminationbasedonnationality. claiming aviolationoftheConventionwithregardtoinhumantreatment a complaintagainstAzerbaijantotheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights(ECHR), Relatives ofthreeArmeniansoldierskilledandbeheadedduringtheescalationfiled D . War Crimes Alle Azvision, ‘Armenian Soldiers’, 3May 2016, http://en.azvision.az/news.php?id=36565. M.Mirovalev, ‘Here’s Why a‘Frozen’ Conflict Between ArmeniaandAzerbaijan HasGotten Hot’, Armenpress, ‘NagornoKarabakh Defense Ministry Releases Namesof 36Killed Soldiers’, 8April A. Martirosyan A. , ‘Complaint AboutBeheading of Armenian SoldiersFiled to ECtHR, Advocate Reports’, European OmbudsmanInstitute, ‘Statement EOI Karabakh’ 11 April2016, http://www.eoi. EzidiPress, ‘Karabakh Conflict: Azerbaijani Soldiers Behead EzidiFrom Armenia’,4April2016, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, ‘Leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia Meet With Putin for Talks on ga tions, Inves 119

tiga tions, and Prose 113 117

cutions 116 On 3 May Azerbai- 114

115 withvid- 118

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 43 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 44 this. bombs aroundciviliansettlementsinNKR. February 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17217956. 124 https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/05/257263.htm. 123 trust.org/minefreenk/media-centre/news/halo-begins-emergency-clearance-in-karabakh/. 122 of-reality-is-integral-part-of-azerbaijans-foreign-policy.html. Policy’, 20 May 2016, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/848030/nkr-mfa-falsification-and-distortion- 121 http://www.mfa.gov.az/en/news/909/4104. Bomb by the Armed Forces of ArmeniaAgainst CiviliansandCivilianObjects of Azerbaijan’, 17May 2016, 120 of theRepublicCyprusisstilloccupiedbyforeignforces’. eral AssemblyResolution37/253of16May1983declaredthat ‘partoftheterritory without delayfromtheRepublicofCyprusforeignmilitary personnel.UNGen- UN SecurityCouncilResolution353of20July1974requested thewithdrawal two partsfromMorphouthroughNicosiatoFamagusta,ispatrolledbyUNtroops. southern two-thirds by Greek Cypriots. A ‘Green Line’ with a buffer zone, dividing the effectively partitionedwiththenorthernthirdinhabitedbyTurkishCypriotsand military coupontheislandbackedbyGreekgovernmentinAthens.Cypruswas Cyprus hasbeendividedsince1974whenTurkeyinvadedthenorthinresponsetoa of continuedTurkishoccupationterritoryinthenorthRepublicCyprus. Cyprus andTurkeywereinvolvedinaninternationalarmedconflict2016byvirtue Classification oftheconflict: 3. Milit including civilians. senior memberoftheUSStateDepartmentestimated350casualtiesonbothsides, ties, includingcomparatively’,althoughthenumberwasnotspecified.Overall,a According totheUSStateDepartment,Azerbaijan‘tookahugenumberofcasual- civilian objects. Convention onCertainConventionalWeaponsagainstAzerbaijaniciviliansand military hadused122-mmcaliberwhitephosphorusmunitionsprohibitedbythe On 17May2016,Azerbaijan Ministry ofForeignAffairsallegedthattheArmenian International CriminalCourt(ICC),althoughArmeniaisasignatorystate. Neither ArmenianorAzerbaijanisastatepartytothe1998RomeStatuteof A t o Reunifica . His Armenpress, ‘NKRMFA: Falsification andDistortion of Reality isIntegral Part of Azerbijan’s Foreign U.S.Department of State, ‘Background Briefingonthe Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict’, 16May 2016, The HALO Trust, ‘HALO Begins Emergency Clearance inKarabakh’, 19April2016, https://www.halo Unless otherwise stated, thissection isbased onBBC News, ‘Cyprus Country Profile: Timeline’, 26 Republic of Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ‘Statement on the Use of White Phosphorus 121 t HALOTrustreportedthatAzerbaijanhaddroppedrocket-dispensedcluster ory of the Conflict ary Occupa 120 tion Talks TheNKRforeignministryandArmeniadefensedenied 123

tion of Cyprus b 124 122 y Turkey: A Setba ck

The UNPeacekeepingForceinCyprus(UNFICYP) conventional weaponryispossessedbybothstates. frontline militarypersonnelandafurther185,630inreserve. further 50,000inreserve. Cyprus isestimatedtohavesome10,000activefrontlinemilitarypersonnelanda The partiestotheconflictareCyprusandTurkey. Reunification talkshaveproceededslowlysince2008. approve theproposals,islandremaineddividedasitjoinedEUinMay2004. tash, butwasoverwhelminglyrejectedbyGreekCypriots.Sincebothsideshadto plan wasendorsedbyTurkishCypriots,althoughnottheirleaderRaufDenk- fication planwasputtobothcommunitiesintwinreferendaApril2004.The As EuropeanUnion(EU)entryfortheRepublicofCyprusapproached,aUNreuni- has recognizedthenorthasastate. maintain morethan10,000troopsinthenorthofisland.Noothergovernment prus. TurkeyrecognizesonlytheTurkishCypriotauthoritiesandisbelievedstillto In1983,theTurkish-heldareadeclareditselfTurkishRepublicofNorthernCy- www.dailyherald.com/article/20161121/news/311219793 128 127 power.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Turkey. 126 only) iswww.army.gov.cy/?cat=1. Europeandefence/edcountries/countrycyprus.htm. The Republic of Cyprus armed forces website (inGreek 125 at MontPelerin,Switzerland. narrow differencesontheterritorialaspectofadealovertwo daysofnegotiations Greek Cypriot,andbreakawayTurkishCypriotleaderMustafa Akincihadfailedto decades-old dispute.AUNstatementsaidCypriotPresidentNicos Anastasiades,a cast doubtoverwhether18monthsofnegotiationscouldsuccessfully resolvethe Talks thathadresumedin2015hitanimpasse2016,a serioussetbackthat order andtofacilitateareturnnormalconditions. and TurkishCypriots,tocontributethemaintenancerestorationoflaw rence of fighting followingintercommunal violence between the GreekCypriots established in1964underUNSecurityCouncilResolution186topreventarecur- C. Re B. P UNFICYP, https://unficyp.unmissions.org/. Armedforces.co.uk, ‘European Defence Information: Cyprus’, www.armedforces.co.uk/ The Herald, ‘Crucial Cyprus Peace Talks atSwiss Resort “Inconclusive”, November 21 2016, http:// ar Global Firepower, ‘Turkey Military Strength’, last updated 5December 2016, http://www.globalfire cent ties t Developments in 2016:Setba o the Conflict 125 Turkeyisestimatedbyonesourcetohave41,640active 128 ck t o Reunifica 127 isaUNpeacekeepingforce tion Tal ks 126 Awidearrayof

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 45 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 46 Sahrawi ArabDemocraticRepublic hasbeenamemberoftheAfricanUnionsince1984. versally recognizedasastateand isnotanObserverStatewithintheUNalthough Morocco’s continuedmilitaryoccupationofWesternSahara. Saharaisnotuni- (Polisario Front)wereengagedinaninternationalarmedconflict in2016byvirtueof Morocco andtheFrentePopularparalaLiberacióndeSaguiael-Hamra ydeRióOro Classification oftheconflict: 4.Wes in 2016. Turkish militarypersonnelregardinganyactsconcerningtheoccupation allegations ofwarcrimesareknowntohavebeenmadeagainsteitherCypriotor crimes allegedtohavebeencommittedbyCypriotnationalsoronitsterritory.No In accordancewiththeICCStatute,Courtmayexercisejurisdictionoverwar Statute) inMarch2002.TurkeyisneitherapartynorsignatorytotheStatute. Cyprus ratifiedthe1998RomeStatuteofInternationalCriminalCourt(ICC reunification-talks-rivals-reject-proposed-new-borders. ian, 14January2017,https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/14/cyprus- ‘Cyprus ReunificationTalks:RivalsRejectProposedNewBorders’,TheGuard- 2016/nov/22/cyprus-reunification-leaders-leave-switzerland-without-deal; AFP, Deal’, Further reading: AFP,‘CyprusReunification:LeadersLeaveSwitzerlandWithout state, eachslammingtheother’sproposalsas‘unacceptable’. Cypriot delegationsfailedtoagreeonmapsfornewbordersthedividedisland the TurkishCypriots.InJanuary2017,inyetanotherroundofnegotiations,rival pecially on how power will be shared between themajorityGreekCypriotsand peatedly saidthislatestroundhadneverthelessmarkedsignificantprogresses- compensating thoseunabletoreturn.Despitethisimportantsetback,officialsre- for anaccordthatwouldbeputtoavoteandhelpreducethecostsinvolvedwith homes andpropertytheylostduringthewar.Thatwouldservetobuildsupport territory thatwouldenableasmany100,000displacedpeopletoreturnthe the federalzoneseachsidewouldrun.GreekCypriotssoughtreturnofenough The mainareaofdisagreementwasontheamountterritorythatwouldmakeup D U Jus . War Crimes Alle nder tice De The Guardian,22November2016,https://www.theguardian.com/world/ t A ern ern r t cision i c S le 96.3 ahara: The Polisario Front ahara: ga tions, Inves AP

I and Impor tiga tions, and Prose t ant EU ’s De Cour cutions clara t of ion tion

by MoroccoandMauritania. In October1975,theInternationalCourtofJustice(ICJ)rejectedterritorialclaims elected Secretary-GeneralofPolisarioinAugust1976. ocratic Republic.ThecurrentPresidentoftheRepublic,MohamedAbdelaziz,was In February1976,PolisariodeclaredtheestablishmentofSahrawiArabDem- without consultingthepeopleofWesternSahara. termination, Spain couldnottransfersovereignty over Western Sahara toMorocco drid agreementsarenotconsideredvalidsince,byvirtueoftheprincipleSelf-De- remaining third.Spainagreedtoendcolonialrule.Underinternationallaw,theMa- partitioned theregion.Moroccoacquiredtwo-thirdsinnorthandMauritania Mauritania, knownastheMadridAgreement.Signedon14November1975,deal into the territory. Spain backed downand negotiated a settlement with Moroccoand Moroccan KingHassanIIordereda‘GreenMarch’ofmorethan300,000Moroccans termination and Spain agreed to organize a referendum. But in November 1975, Western Sahara. Assembly notedthatthePolisarioFrontwasrepresentativeofpeople Polisario Frontwassetupon10May1973.Ina1979Resolution,theUNGeneral ended in1991.UNeffortshavesofarfailedtobreakthepoliticaldeadlock.The ritory in1975,andaguerrillawarwithAlgerian-backedpro-independenceforces The status of the Western Sahara remains unresolved. Morocco annexed the ter- Council, para 6,http://www.havc.se/res/SelectedMaterial/20020129legalopinionwesternsahara.pdf. Under-Secretary-General for Legal Affairs, theLegal Counsel, addressed to thePresident of theSecurity status of Western Sahara asaNon-Self-Governing Territory.’ See Letter dated 29January2002 from the nistrative authorityover theTerritory to Morocco andMauritania in1975 did not affect theinternational nistering Power, astatus whichSpain alonecould not have unilaterally transferred. The transfer of admi- transfer sovereignty over theTerritory, nordiditconfer uponany of thesignatories thestatus of anadmi- the Territory, were transferred to atemporary tripartite administration. The MadridAgreement didnot Madrid Agreement”), whereby thepowers andresponsibilities of Spain, astheadministering Power of Principles onWestern Sahara was concluded inMadridbetween Spain, Morocco andMauritania (“the 132 131 130 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14115273. 129 tegration withMorocco.Whiletheceasefireheld,mission wasneverfullyde- in January1992.WesternSaharanswouldchoosebetweenindependence andin- clared. Thepeaceplanprovidedforatransitionperiod,leading toareferendum Security Councilresolution.InSeptember1991,aUN-brokered ceasefirewasde- in WesternSahara.Itsmandatewastoimplementapeaceplanoutlined1990 In April1991,theUNestablishedMINURSO,MissionforaReferendum its southerntownofTindouf,wherePolisariostillhasmainbase. occupy areasallocatedtoMauritania.Algeriainturnallowedrefugeessettle peace dealwithPolisarioandrenouncedallterritorialclaims.Moroccomovedto In August1978,one month after a coup, a new Mauritanian government signed a A . His ICJ, Western Sahara: Advisory Opinion of 16 October 1975, www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/61/6195.pdf. Asnoted by HansCorell, thethenUNlegal Counsel: ‘On 14November 1975, aDeclaration of UNGAResolution 34/37, adopted November on21 1979, para 7. Unless otherwise stated, thissection isbased onBBC News ‘Western Sahara Profile’, 27 July2016, t ory of the Conflict 130 . Some100,000refugeesstillliveinPolisario’scampsAlgeria. 131 129 ThecourtrecognizedtheSaharawi’srighttoself-de- 132

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Genève de1949etleProtocole Idansleconflitl’opposantauRoyaumedu Maroc. de Conventions les appliquer à déclares’engager lui-même, de disposer droità son pour luttant Occidental Sahara du peuple le représentant qu’autorité tant en POLISARIO, Front le 1977, 1949 relatif à la protection des victimes des conflits armés internationaux (Protocole I) du 8 juin août 12 du Genève de Conventions Protocoleaux du additionnel 96.3 l’article à Conformément of Morocco: Conventions andAdditionalProtocolItotheconflictbetween itandtheKingdom behalf ofthepeopleWesternSaharathatitundertooktoapply the1949Geneva On 21June2015,thePolisarioFrontmadefollowingunilateral declarationon a further150,000inreserve. Morocco isestimatedtohavesome200,000activefrontlinemilitarypersonneland The partiestotheconflictareMoroccoandPolisarioFront. remains deadlocked. security concerns.EnvoyJamesBakerresignedinJune2004andtheUNprocess Polisario signalleditsreadinesstoaccept,butMoroccorejectedtheplan,citing tion withMorocco. referendum wouldthentakeplaceonindependence,semi-autonomyorintegra- semi-autonomous region of Morocco for a transition period of up to five years. A UN adoptedacompromiseresolutionproposingthatWesternSaharabecome a year.ThisformulawasrejectedbyPolisarioandAlgeria.TheninJuly2003,the period, andvotingrightsforMoroccansettlersresidentinWesternSaharaover Saharawi’s underMoroccansovereignty,areferendumafterfour-yeartransition Agreement’, knownastheThirdWay,inJune2001.Itprovidedforautonomy In anewbidtobreakthedeadlock,UNEnvoyJamesBakersubmitted‘Framework Moroccans whosettledinWesternSaharaaftertheGreenMarch. to bebasedonacensuscarriedoutbySpainin1973.Polisariowantedrule an ‘identificationprocess’,todecidewhowaseligiblevote.Identification ployed and nor was the transition period ever completed. A key sticking point was present edition of The War Report. there was noWar Report in2015, we believe thisisanimportant fact thatshouldbereported inthe 134 power.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=morocco. 133 the SahrawiArabDemocraticRepublic.Itsstrengthtodayisnotknown. C. Re B. P Impor Global Firepower, ‘Morocco Military Strength’, last updated 5December 2016, http://www.globalfire The APIDeclaration 96.3 by thePolisario Front was madein2015 andnot 2016. However, since ar cent ties t t ant Developments in 2015-2016: EU o the Conflict Cour t of Jus 133 tice De ThePolisarioFrontoperatesasthearmedforcesof cision 134 Ar ticle 96.3 API

clara tion and

attendant exclusionoftheterritoryfromtradeagreement. recognition of the people of Western Sahara’s right to self-determination and the Council andMorocco,thisdeterminationinfactisaconsequence fromtheCourt’s the dismissalofPolisarioFront’sactionmayappeartobeavictoryforEU the EUCouncildecisionendorsingagreementbyPolisarioFront.While own. TheCourtthenwentontodismisstheactionforannulmentbroughtagainst not applytotheterritoryofWesternSahara,whichisclaimedbyMoroccoasits gave itsappealsjudgmenton21December2016 ral Wathelet’sopinionpublishedon13September2016,135theCourtofJustice Sahara andifso,whethertheyshouldbeannulled.FollowingtheAdvocateGene- ciation AgreementandLiberalisationwereapplicabletotheWestern which ithaddodecidewhethertheagreementsrelatingtoEU-MoroccoAsso- On thesecondhalfof2016,EUCourtjusticeruledoveranimportantcaseon Conventions andAdditionalProtocolIinitsrelationswithMoroccoviceversa. In otherwords,thePolisarioFrontisnowrecognizedtobeboundGeneva to theconflict. – TheGenevaConventionsandthisProtocolareequallybindinguponallParties both); and Morocco inrespecttotheGenevaConventionsandAPI(NB:isaparty – ThePolisarioFrontassumesthesamerightsandobligationsasthoseassumedby to theconflictwithimmediateeffect; – TheConventionsandAPIarebroughtintoforceforthePolisarioFrontasaparty API, namely: ration andnotifiedtoStatesPartiesarelimitedthosewritteninArticle96(3)of The legaleffectsoftheSwissFederalCouncilhavingacceptedunilateraldecla- ted the declaration, makingitthe first timethatArticle 96.3 fromAPIwasapplied. cil, whichisthedepositaryofConventions.TheSwissFederalCouncilaccep- The PolisarioFrontaddresseditsunilateraldeclarationtotheSwissFederalCoun- first&part=1&cid=1407150. document/document.jsf?text=&docid=172870&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ= 137 cid=324852. document.jsf?text=&docid=186489&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1& 136 en&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1031729. http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=183273&pageIndex=0&doclang= de oro (Front Polisario) Opinion of Advocate General Wathelet (Case C 135 sion oftheGeneralCourt. Judgmentof theGeneral Court (EighthChamber),10 December 2015, http://curia.europa.eu/juris/ Judgmentof theCourt (Grand December Chamber),21 2016, http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/ Council of theEuropean Unionv. Front Populaire pourlalibération delasaguia-el-hamra etdurio 137 ItdecidedthattheEU-Moroccotradeagreementdid 136 andoverruledtheearlierdeci- ‑ 104/16 P), 13September 2016 (1),

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 49 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 50

Rome StatuteoftheInternationalCriminalCourt.MoroccohassignedStatute. Neither Morocconor the SahrawiArabDemocraticRepublic is a state party tothe 1998 eu-court-of-justice-a-reset-of-eu-morocco-trade-relations-in-the-offing/. org/2017/01/23/guest-post-by-cedric-ryngaert-the-polisario-front-judgment-of-the- and InternationalLaw,23January2017,https://armedgroups-internationallaw. of Justice:AResetEU-MoroccoTradeRelationsintheOffing’,ArmedGroups the EUcase,seeCedricRyngaert,‘ThePolisarioFrontJudgmentofCourt teral-declaration-by-polisario-under-api-accepted-by-swiss-federal-council/. On 2 September2015,https://armedgroups-internationallaw.org/2015/09/02/unila API AcceptedbySwissFederalCouncil’,ArmedGroupsandInternationalLaw, reading:KatharineFortin,‘UnilateralDeclarationbyPolisarioUnder Further D . War Crimes Alle ga tions, Inves tiga tions, and Prose cutions

istan andtheANDSFtookfullresponsibilityforsecuringtheircountry. On January1,2015theU.S.andNATOformallyendedtheircombatroleinAfghan- in Afghanistan. State inAfghanistan(IS‘Khorasan’branch,IS-K),makingitapartytotheconflict an increasingnumberofattackswereclaimedbythegroupknownasIslamic point apeaceagreementwassignedbetweentheparties(seebelow).Inaddition, also aNIACwithHezb-e-IslamiGulbuddin(HIG),untilSeptember2016,atwhich ni NetworkandthearmedgroupidentifyingitselfasbelongingtoIS.Therewas Additional ProtocolII.Inaddition,therearetwoseparateNIACwiththeHaqqa- to theconflictare UNAMA considersthatthefollowingnon-Statearmedoppositions groupsparty the Taliban. in which the armedforces of the Government of Afghanistan are fighting against Afghanistan wasinvolvedinanon-internationalarmedconflict(NIAC)2016 Classification oftheconflicts: 1. Af midyear_report_2016_final_rev.1-9sept.pdf. 2016, p96,https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/protection_of_civilians_in_armed_conflict_ 140 139 understandingwar.org/report/quetta-shura-taliban-southern-afghanistan. and Shadow Governance’, Backgrounder, Institute for the Study of War, December 21 2009, p 1, www. J. Dressler Forsberg, andC. ‘The Quetta Shura Taliban inSouthernAfghanistan: Organization, Operations Omar relocated in2001 andtheSupreme Shura thatgoverned Afghanistan intheearly 1990s.See, e.g., 138 The position oftheUNAssistanceMission in Afghanistan(UNAMA) in 2016 wasthat: Casual Armed Conflicts Sele U.S.Department of State, ‘U.S.Relations withAfghanistan’, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5380.htm. The term Quetta Shura is a composite comprising the name of the town inPakistan to whichMullah UNAMAandOHCHR, ghanis of labelsincludingtheHaqqaniNetwork,Hezb-e-Islami,Islamic Movement nised armedgroupstakingadirectpartinhostilitiesandassuming avariety ‘thosewhoidentifyas‘Taliban’wellindividualsandnon-State orga- tional militaryforces…)andnon-Statearmedoppositiongroups…. and itsarmedforces(Afghannationalsecuritysupported byinterna- non-international armedconflictbetweentheGovernmentofAfghanistan UNAMA takesthepositionthatarmedconflictinAfghanistanisa ties cted Non-Interna 138 Thisconflictmeetsthethresholdforapplicationof1977 t an: A Afghanistan: Midyear Report 2016: Protection of CiviliansinArmed Conflict , Kabul, July Continuing Increase in Civilian tional 140 139

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 51 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 52 been partiestoNIACsinAfghanistan2016. Jihad Union,LashkariTayyiba,JayshMuhammed,orotherarmedgroupstohave The WarReportdoesnotconsidertheIslamicMovementofUzbekistan, afghanistan-long-hard-road-2014-transition. Asia Report No. 236,8October 2012, p16, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/ 144 deal-160929092524754.html September 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/afghanistan-ghani-hekmatyar-sign-peace- peace-deal-hezb-i-islami.html?_r=0; AlJazeera, ‘Afghanistan: Ghani,Hekmatyar signpeace deal’, 29 New York Times, 22Septembre 2016, at:https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/23/world/asia/afghanistan- 143 otp/OTP-PE-rep-2015-Eng.pdf. on Preliminary ExaminationActivities 2015’, 12November 2015, §114, https://www.icc-cpi.int/iccdocs/ such forces remain in reduced numbers, primarily in a training, advisory and assistance role.’, OTP, ‘Report in supportof theGovernment of Afghanistan ended theircombat missions inDecember although 2014, the Taliban, theHaqqaniNetwork, andHezb-e-IslamiGulbuddin(“HIG”). International forces deployed dered that:‘Today, theGovernment of Afghanistan forces combat armed groups whichmainlyinclude 142 141 extend itseffectiveauthoritybeyondthecapital. south eastandofthecountry,whileAfghanGovernmenthasstruggledto below). TheTalibanareconductingawidespreadinsurgency,particularlyinthe fighters have re-grouped into a number of differentarmed Mujahedeen groups (see the Talibanfrompower.Butsincefallofregimein2001,andother October 2001,enablingoppositiongroups,namelytheNorthernAlliance,todrive hand overBinLaden.ThisledtotheU.S.initiatinganaerialbombingcampaignin by Osama Bin Ladenfrom Afghanistan, the Taliban refused US demands that they tacks byal-QaedaintheU.S.on11September2001,whichweremasterminded states (Pakistan,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmirates).Followingat- the legitimategovernmentof‘theIslamicEmirateAfghanistan’byonlythree about 90%ofthecountryuntillate2001,althoughTalibanwererecognizedas lars drawnfromthelargestethnicgroupinAfghanistan,Pashtuns—controlled Emerging asaforceinthe1990s,Taliban—originallygroupofIslamicscho- several years. sion in1979.Ongoingnon-internationalarmedconflicthasnowbeenragingfor Afghanistan hasbeenengulfedinalmostperpetualconflictsincetheSovietinva- the groupisnolongerapartytoconflictfromthatdateon. ment wassignedwithHezb-e-IslamiinSeptember2016,theWarReportconsiders A . His Ibid,p101. Rod Norland,‘Afghanistan SignsDraft Peace Deal With Faction Led by GulbuddinHekmatyar’, The InDecember 2015, theOffice of theProsecutor (OTP) of theInternational CriminalCourt (ICC) consi - See, e.g., International CrisisGroup, ‘Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the2014 Transition’, t ory of the Conflict nal groupsdirectlyengagedinhostileactsonbehalfapartytotheconflict. pursuing political,ideologicaloreconomicobjectivesincludingarmedcrimi- groups identifyingthemselvesas‘Daesh’andothermilitiaarmed of Uzbekistan,IslamicJihadUnion,LashkariTayyiba,JayshMuhammed, 142 144 Inaddition,sinceapeaceagree-

143

141

150 independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/taliban-preys-on-afghanistans-corrupt-police-force-8430111.html. December 2016. Afghanistan wasestimatedtohave200,000activefrontlinemilitarypersonnelasof 1. Afghan Forces Hezb-e-Islami, respectively. Quetta ShuraTalibanand,inseparateconflicts,againsttheHaqqaniNetworkand The partiestotheNIACswereAfghanGovernmentforcesandISAFagainst aras, inJuly,leavingatleast80peopledeadandwounded230. 2016, the deadliestof regular attacks claimed by IS targeteda protest by the Haz- 2016 markedtheemergenceofISinAfghanistanasapartytoconflict.InJuly 149 balfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=afghanistan. 148 http://in.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-islamic-state-idINKBN15W1SB. 147 blast-mosque.html. York Times November, 21 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/world/asia/afghanistan-kabul- 146 com/news/world-asia-36874570. 145 1980s, butwhowasreportedlykilledin2015. erstwhile villageclergymanwholosthisrighteyefightingSovietforcesinthe ban inAfghanistan(QuettaShuraTaliban)wereledbyMullahOmar,killedan The largestnon-statearmedgroupfightingagainsttheAfghanregime,Tali- 2. Taliban took placeinNovember2016,killing30persons. Covering upDeath of MullahOmar’,31August 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34105565. 151 vide anineffectiveandtaintedservicetocitizens…fordecadescome.’ perceived integrityandlegitimacyofofficers…theorganisationwillcontinuetopro- observed inOctober:‘Unlessradicalchangeisintroducedtoimprovetheactualand tial FCOreportobtainedbytheBritishnewspaperonperformanceofpolice in thecivilwarthatfollowedSovietwithdrawal.Hewas PrimeMinisterof commander duringthe1980sconflictwithSovietsandone ofthekeyfigures Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin(HIG)isledbyHekmatyar,arebelmilitary 3. Hezb-e-Islami corrupt’ andrivenwithproblemsincludingnepotismdrugabuse. by theUnitedKingdom’sForeignandCommonwealthOffice(FCO)tobe‘endemically B. P Althoughthere issome uncertainty abouttheexact date of hisdeath. See BBC News, ‘Taliban Admit Reuters, ‘IslamicState Fighters Kill18Afghan SoldiersinAttack onOutpost’, 17February 2017, BBC News, ‘Kabul explosion: IS“claims attack onHazara protest”’, 23July 2016, http://www.bbc.

Global Firepower, ‘Afghanistan Military Strength’, last updated 7December 2016, http://www.glo M.MashalandF. Abed ‘IslamicState Again Strikes atAfghan Shiites, KillingatLeast 30inKabul’, The New B. Brady, ‘Taliban Preys onAfghanistan’s Corrupt Police Force’, Independent,23December 2012, www. Ibid. ties t o the Conflicts 148 newspaper, the ANP were considered AccordingtoTheIndependentnewspaper,theANPwereconsidered

151

146 Attackscontinuedin2017. 145 Anotherattack 149 150 Aconfiden- 147

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 53 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 54 mainly ineasternNangarharProvince. clined asofearlyMarch2016andisnowlikelyaround2,500fighters,concentrated militias anddronesstrikesbytheUSmilitary,numberhassignificantlyde- Afghanistan varies widely; however, due tooffensives by the Taliban andprivate links withIS-CentralinIraqandSyria.TheestimatednumberofIS-Kfighters but littleisunderstoodaboutitsaimsandviabilityortheextentofoperational The IslamicState’s‘Khorasan’branch(IS-K)emergedinAfghanistanmid-2014, 5. TheIslamic StateinAfghanistan (KhorasanBranch) by USmilitaryleadersas‘themostresilientenemynetworkoutthere’. these groups’. authorities ofnottaking‘significantmilitaryorlawenforcementactionagainst nual globalreportonterrorismsubmittedtotheUSCongressitaccusedPakistani the Afghan Taliban continued to find ‘safe haven’ in Pakistani territory. In its an- of April2014,theUSDepartmentStateclaimedthatHaqqaniNetworkand against them,includingdronestrikes,hasbeentargetingtheirfighters.Attheend network operatesalongtheborderwithPakistan,whereescalatingcampaign default/files/PB202-The-Islamic-State-in-Afghanistan-Assessing-the-Threat.pdf. Assessing the Threat’, Peace Brief 202, U.S. Institute of Peace, April 2016, https://www.usip.org/sites/ 157 156 to-find-safe-haven-in-pakistan-claims-us-report/. The Express Tribune, 1May tribune.com.pk/story/702681/afghan-taliban-haqqani-network-continue- 2014, 155 StrategicThreatweb_29MAR_0.pdf. Institute for theStudy of War, 2012, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Haqqani_ Haqqani_Network_Compressed_0.pdf, ‘Afghanistan Report 9’ —The HaqqaniNetwork: AStrategic Threat, Institute for theStudy of War, October 2010, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ 154 Journal, 12November 2013, www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/11/afghan_taliban_conde.php. 153 Jane’s Information Group, 1February 2012. 152 eastern Afghanistan. Afghanistan from1993to1994andagainbrieflyin1996.HIGhasbeenactive Pakistan. ordinated attacksinAfghanistanwereplannedandlaunchedfromsafehavens ers thantheTaliban,withwhomtheyarecloselyallied, families inAfghanistan’sKhost,theHaqqaniNetworkcommandsfarfewerfight- A formeranti-Sovietgroupinthe1980sandledbyoneofmostprominent 4. Haqqani Network C.G. Johnson, M.Karokhail andR.Amiri,‘The IslamicState inAfghanistan See, e.g., B.Roggio, ‘Afghan Taliban Condemn theKillingof NasiruddinHaqqani’,FDD’s Long War Reuters, ‘Afghan Taliban, HaqqaniNetwork Continue to FindSafe Haven inPakistan, Claims USReport’, See, e.g., ‘Hizb-i-Islami–Gulbuddin(HIG)(Afghanistan)’ inJane’sWorld Insurgency andTerrorism, Ibid. See, e.g., Dressler, J. A. 156

155 Thereportfurtherclaimedthatanumberofaggressiveandco- 152 ‘Afghanistan Report 6’ —The HaqqaniNetwork: From Pakistan to Afghanistan, ThegroupwasapartytotheconflictuntilSeptember2016. 157 153 buthasbeendescribed

154 The

2020. in funding fortheAfghanNational Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) through fallen totheTalibaninSeptember2015. the southandcapitalofnorthernprovinceKunduz,whichhadbriefly Spring offensive, ‘Operation Omari’ zens andwoundedmorethan300people. 8,400 troopsinAfghanistanthroughtheendofhisterm. the country,PresidentObamaannouncedinJuly2016thatU.S.wouldleave situation in Afghanistan and the continued territorial gains by the Taliban across pitals, including the capital of the strategically important Helmand In 2016,thenatureofinsurgencyincountrythreatenedseveralprovincialca- May 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/24/world/asia/obama-mullah-mansour-taliban-killed.html. 165 in-afghanistan/a-19390071. 164 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-funding-idUSKCN0YZ1HU. 163 html?_r=0. Times, 6July2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/world/asia/obama-afghanistan-troops. 162 19April 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/19/explosion-rocks-afghan-capital-kabul. 161 offensive/. 14 April2016, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/operation-omari-taleban-announces-2016-spring- 160 city-of-kunduz-in-northern-afghanistan.html?_r=0. York Times , 28September 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/29/world/asia/taliban-fighters-enter- 159 lashkar-gah-helmand. 11 August 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/11/afghan-army-reinforcements-taliban- 158 authorizing commanderstosendUStroopsoncombatmissionswithANDSF In thesamemonth,PresidentObamaapprovednewauthoritiesformilitary, selected tosucceedhim. hin thegroupandaformertopjudgeduringTalibanruleofAfghanistan,was Baluchistan province. Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada, a religious leader wit- of theinsurgencylessthanyearbefore,waskilledinaUSdronestrikePakistan’s In May2016,TalibanleaderMullahAkhtarMansour,whohadassumedleadership annual $1billion(905millionEuros)inadditiontheU.S.requested$3.5billions committed to maintaining 12,000 total troops in Afghanistan, and to providing an the Warsaw Summit, the North AtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO) further C. Re Casual S.E. Rasmussen, ‘Dozens Killed and 300 Injured as Kabul Hit by Taliban Suicide Attack’, G.Harris,‘Obama Says MullahMansour, Taliban Leader, Was Killed inUSStrike’, The New York Times , 23 J. Smith,‘US Plans Billions in Afghan funding Until2020, Seeks Allies’ Help’, Reuters, 13June2016 , S.E.Rasmussen, ‘Afghan Army SendsReinforcements asTaliban Close inonLashkar Gah’,The Guardian, J. Goldstein andM.Mashal, ‘Taliban Fighters Capture Kunduz CityasAfghan Forces Retreat’, The New M. Landler, ‘Obama Says He Will Keep More Troops in Afghanistan Than Planned’, The New York Afghanistan Analyst Network andB.Osman,‘Operation Omari:Taleban Announced 2016 SpringOffensive’, DW, ‘NATO Extends Mission inAfghanistan, 9July2016, http://www.dw.com/en/nato-extends-mission- cent 164

ties Developments in 2016: A 165 160 Continuing hitting Kabul withan attack that killed do- 159 161 InApril2016Talibanlaunchedtheir ShowinghisconcernfortheSecurity Increase in Civilian 162 InJuly2016,during 158 province in The Guardian, 163

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self-proclaimed IslamicStateinAfghanistan difficulty maintainingsecurityandprotectingterritory,reportsofagrowing panded militarymeasurescameaftermonthsofhighANDSFcasualties,increased 9sept.pdf. protection_of_civilians_in_armed_conflict_midyear_report_2016_final_rev.1- Armed Conflict’,Kabul,July2016,https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/ tection ofCiviliansinArmedConflict’,Kabul,July2016.‘Protection reading: Further otp-rep-PE_ENG.pdf. 171 2016, http://www.rferl.org/a/adghanistan-gunmen-shi-ite-pilgrims-kabul-ashura/28046322.html 170 http://in.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-blast-toll-idINKCN11C0O3. 169 hunting-al-qaeda-in-at-least-7-afghan-provinces.php. Long War Journal,24 September 2016, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/09/us-military-is- 168 com/2016/04/05/afghanistan-islamic-state-taliban/. 167 wp/2016/06/09/defense-official-u-s-to-begin-striking-taliban-advise-regular-afghan-soldiers-again/. Taliban’, 166 against humanitywereandcontinuetobecommittedinAfghanistan. mation availableprovidesareasonablebasistobelievethatwarcrimesand As ofNovember2016,theICC’sOfficeProsecuter(OTP)foundthatinfor- 1 May2003. Statute crimescommittedintheterritoryofAfghanistanorbyitsnationalssince al CriminalCourt(ICC)sinceFebruary2003.TheICChasjurisdictionoverRome Afghanistan hasbeenastatepartytothe1998RomeStatuteofInternation- second attack. lowing theblast.Afghanforceseventuallykilledallthreegunmeninvolvedin hours-long standoffwithgunmenwhobarricadedthemselvesintoabuildingfol- lowed onlyhourslaterbyacarbombintheShareNawareaofcityandan ministry, killing35andinjuringmorethan103inKabul.Thetwinattackwasfol- Attacks intensifiedfromAugusttoOctober2016,includingontheAfghandefense forces andexpandingauthoritiesforUSairstrikestotargettheTaliban. in KabulontheAshuraholiday. dozens woundedwhenatleastonegunmanattackedworshippersaShiashrine Referring toTalibanattacks,itreported: D . War Crimes Alle OTP, ‘Report onPreliminary ExaminationActivities 2016’, https://www.icc-cpi.int/iccdocs/otp/161114- F.J Marty, ‘On theTrail of IslamicState inAfghanistan’, Foreign Policy, 4April2016, http://foreignpolicy. RadioFree Europe RadioLiberty, ‘Islamic State ClaimsAttack onShi’te MournersinKabul’, 12October Reuters, ‘Death toll from Afghan Defence Ministry Attack Revised upto 35’, 6September 2016, T. Joscelyn andB.Roggio, ‘U.S.Military isHuntingAlQaeda inatleast 7Afghanistan Provinces’, FDD’s M.Ryan andT. Gibbons-Neff, ‘U.S.Widens War inAfghanistan, Authorizes New Action Against The Washington Post, 10 June2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/ 169 Inanotherunclaimedattackatleast17peoplewerekilledand UNAMA andOHCHR,‘Afghanistan:MidyearReport2016:Pro- ga tions, Inves 170

tiga tions, and Prose 167 andresurgingal-Qaedapresence. cutions 171 166

Theex- 168 and theCIAconcluded: The OTPalsoreportedtheactsallegedlycommittedbymembers oftheUSforces With respecttopro-governmentforces,theOTPreported: are punishableunder articles8(2)(c)(i)and(ii) 8(2)(e)(vi)oftheStatute. of torture,crueltreatment,outrages uponpersonaldignity,andrape.Theseacts (“CIA”) resortedtotechniques amounting tothecommissionof warcrimes gations, membersoftheUSarmed forcesandtheUSCentralIntelligenceAgency course of interrogating these detainees, and in conduct supporting those interro - 211.The informationavailableprovides areasonablebasistobelievethat,inthe Police (“ALP”). (“ANA”), theAfghanNationalBorderPolice(“ANBP”)and Afghan Local rity (“NDS”),theAfghanNationalPolice(“ANP”), Army tortured conflict-related detainees include the National Directorate of Secu- violence underarticle8(2)(e)(vi).Governmentalauthoritiesalleged tohave (i); outrages upon personal dignity pursuant to article 8(2)(c)(ii); and sexual mitted thewarcrimesoftortureandcrueltreatmentunder article 8(2)(c) 209.There is a reasonable basis to believe that Afghan authorities have com - (e)(ix)) and killingorwoundingtreacherouslyacombatantadversary(article8(2) years or using themto participate actively in hostilities (article 8(2)(e)(vii)), (article 8(2)(e)(iv));conscriptingorenlistingchildrenundertheageoffifteen (article 8(2)(e)(iii));intentionallydirectingattacksagainstprotectedobjects 8(2)(e)(i)), intentionallydirectingattacksagainsthumanitarianpersonnel (i)), intentionallydirectingattacksagainstthecivilianpopulation(article in thecontextofanon-internationalarmedconflict:murder(article8(2)(c) their affiliateshavealsocommittedataminimumthefollowingwarcrimes there isareasonablebasistobelievethatsince1May2003,theTalibanand 207.Based ontheinformationavailableatthisstage,Officehasfoundthat and imposeitsrulesystemofbeliefsbylethalforce. the Taliban leadership to seize power from the Government of Afghanistan volved themultiplecommissionofviolentactsinpursuancepolicy took partinpublicaffairs,orattendedschoolpasttheageofpuberty,and- oppose Talibanruleandideology,includingwomengirlswhoworked, perceived tosupporttheAfghangovernmentand/orforeignentities,or committed aspartofawidespreadand/orsystematicattackagainstcivilians grounds andongender(article7(1)(h)).Thesecrimeswereallegedly and persecutionagainstanyidentifiablegrouporcollectivityonpolitical prisonment orotherseveredeprivationofphysicalliberty(article7(1)(e)), have committedthecrimesagainsthumanityofmurder(article7(1)(a)),im- 206.There isareasonablebasistobelievethattheTalibanandtheiraffiliates offices, hospitals,shrinesandmosques,humanitarianorganisations. merous attacks on protected objects, including schools, civiliangovernment cember 2015.SinceMay2003,insurgentgroupshaveallegedlylaunchednu- more than 17,000civilian deaths in the periodbetweenJanuary 2007 and De- to thisinformation,anti-governmentarmedgroupshavebeenresponsiblefor their affiliates, in the context of the armed conflict in Afghanistan. According committed byanti-governmentarmedgroups,inparticulartheTalibanand 205. TheOfficehasexaminedtheinformationavailableoncrimesallegedly

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 57 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 58 ment toeliminatesmugglersanderadicatecocacrops,withUSassistance. anti-drug efforts.Inthatcontext,Colombianforcesreceivedtrainingandequip- through PlanColombia,aninitiativeoriginallyintendedtosupportColombian high-ranking leaders. FARC toabsorbshiftsinthebalanceofpowerandeliminationsomeits ture andorganizationalculturethathavegrownoverfivedecadesenabled losses fromcombatantdeathsanddefections.Thirdly,astronginstitutionalstruc- ly, ithasprovencapableofreplenishingitsranks,thusmitigatingthesubstantial to money,despitedecliningincomefromdrugtraffickingandkidnapping.Second- International CrisisGroupgivesfactorsofFARC’sresilience:‘First,itretainsaccess wing armedgroups(notablytheFARC-EPandELN)formorehalfacentury.The Colombia hasenduredarmedconflictbetweenthegovernmentandseveralleft- Peace TalkswiththeELNstartedinFebruary2017. government andtheFARC,therebyendingconflictbetweentwoparties. Army (ELN)in2016.Attheendof2016,apeaceagreementwassignedbetween Revolutionary ArmedForcesofColombia(FARC-EP)andtheNationalLiberation Colombia was involved innon-international armed conflicts (NIACs) with the Classification oftheconflicts: 2. Colombia: Pea co.uk/2/hi/americas/891289.stm. 174 http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/latin-america/colombia/045-colombia-peace-at-last.pdf.p 4, 173 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-19390026. 172 seen thepowerofparamilitariesdiminish.Followinggenerous andcontroversial ations withguerrillagroups,differentdegreesofsuccess.Recent yearshavealso Over theyears,GovernmentofColombiahasheldseveralpeace talksandnegoti- have givenanewdimensiontotheproblemofnarco-trafficking. activities (such as kidnapping,extortion,bombings,murder,and hijackings), and guerrillas andtheparamilitarieshavebecomeincreasinglyinvolved incriminal although thishasbeendeniedbytheGovernment.Sincetheir origins,boththe ages betweentheparamilitariesandstateinwagingwaragainstguerrillas, and kidnappingsbyguerrillaforces.Therehavebeenregularaccusationsoflink- means ofprotectinglandowners,druglordsandlocalbusinessmenfromattacks organizations, primarilytheUnitedSelf-DefenseForcesofColombia(AUC),asa The activitiesofthe guerrillas led to the formation ofright-wing paramilitary A of Conflict . His International CrisisGroup, Colombia: Peace atLast? LatinAmerica Report N°45,25September 2012, J. McDermott, ‘Colombia ChangesTactics inDrugs War’, BBC News, 31August 2000, news.bbc. Unless otherwise stated, thissection isbased onBBC News, ‘Colombia Country Profile’, 28December t ory of the Conflict 173 ce Deal with FARC Ends 60 Years The USGovernmenthas also been involved in the country 172

174

Havana. ary 27,formerUNSecretary-GeneralKofiAnnanvisitedthenegotiatingtablein process bytheU.S.,longakeyforeignplayerinColombianconflict.OnFebru- including bytheFARC,andinterpretedasaclearendorsementofColombia’speace the Colombian peace process, Bernard Aronson.The appointment was welcomed, Secretary ofState,JohnKerry,announcedtheappointmentaspecialenvoyto continued progressandgrowinginternationalsupport.OnFebruary20,theUS Between JanuaryandApril2015,peacenegotiationsinHavanashowedsignsof mean ‘armsgoquiet’. gotiator, IvanMarquez,saidthattheycame‘withanolivebranch’butpeacedidnot met fortheirfirstdirectpeacetalksadecadeinOslo,Norway.FARC-EP’sheadne- In October2012,negotiatorsfromtheColombianGovernmentandFARC-EPrebels amnesty legislation, 181 180 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/15/colombia-end-in-sight-longest-running-conflict. 179 co.uk/news/world-latin-america-19514814. 178 co.uk/news/world-latin-america-19994289?print=true. 177 p15239?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Dbackgrounder%26page%3D9. Relations, 11 January2008, www.cfr.org/colombia/colombias-right-wing-paramilitaries-splinter-groups/ 176 cja.org/where-we-work/colombia/related-resources/colombia-the-justice-and-peace-law/?id=863. 175 about 95%ofthetotalestimatedAUCforcewasdisbanded. drugs 4)endofconflictanddecommission5)victimspost-warjustice. dressing: 1)ruralreform2)aframeworkforpoliticalparticipationoftheFarc3)illicit Havana, Cuba,inNovember2012.Afive-pointpeaceplanhadbeenagreedaimedatad- reached. for aceasefire,sayingmilitaryoperationswouldcontinueuntilfinalagreementwas immediately byorderingbombingstoresume. advancing withreinforcementagainstguerrillacamp.PresidentSantosresponded Cauca onAprilthe15.FARCjustifiedattacksayingthatarmyhadbeen The ceasefirewasviolatedwhen11soldierswerekilledinaFARCambushthe FARC campsforamonth. ordered theMinistryofDefenseandmilitarycommanderstoceasebombing their wordontheunilateralceasefireand,asagesturetode-escalateconflict, diate impactontheground.PresidentSantosrecognizedthatFARChadkept and itwasthefirstaspectofpeacenegotiations,whichwouldhave an imme- the locationofminesandsuspendingplantingnewonesinthatterritory, Ibid. BBC News, ‘Colombia andFarc Negotiators LaunchNorway Peace Talks’, 18October 2012, www.bbc. The Center for Justice & Accountability, ‘Colombia: The Justice and Peace Law’, August 2005, http:// BBC News, ‘Colombia’s President Santos Rejects Farc Ceasefire Call’,7September 2012, www.bbc. S.Hanson, ‘Colombia’s Right-Wing Paramilitaries andSplinter Groups’, Council onForeign E.Vulliamy, ‘Colombia: IstheEndinSightto theWorld’s Longest War?’, The Observer, 15March 2015, FARC-EP International, ‘Timeline 2012-2016’, http://farc-epeace.org/peace-process/timeline.html. 178 180 After the launch of the process, both parties agreed to move the talks to Afterthelaunchofprocess,bothpartiesagreedtomovetalks

The announcementwassignificant,astheFARCundertooktoreveal 175 177 which offeredsignificantlyreducedjailterms,bymid-2006 Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos rejected FARC calls ColombianPresidentJuanManuelSantosrejectedFARCcalls 181

176 179

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 59 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 60 com/news/world-latin-america-38902638. 186 185 mesadeconversaciones.com.co/comunicados/comunicado-conjunto-55-la-habana-12-de-julio-de-2015. 184 http://blog.cerac.org.co/semanario-18-termina-el-cese-unilateral-de-las-farc-se-recrudecera-el-conflicto. 183 santos-esta-la-baja/426263-3. 182 As ofJanuary2016Colombiawasestimatedtohavesome445,000 activefrontline 1. Colombian ArmedForces The partiestotheNIACsin2016wereColombiaanditsArmedForces againsttheELN. Peace TalkswiththeELNstartedinFebruary2017. (v) endofthearmedconflict;and(vi)implementation. tion ofpeace;(ii)democracyfor(iii)transformations(iv)victims; framework forthepeacetalks,includes:(i)societalparticipationinconstruc- peace negotiationswiththeELN.Thesix-pointnegotiatingagenda,agreedas On 30March2016,theGovernmentofColombiaannouncedbeginning November 2016. that afinalagreementwouldbesignedwithinsixmonths.Itwasfinallyin paraPazla ). Simultaneouslywiththeagreement,governmentalsoannounced ment on Transitional Justice (SpecialJurisdiction for Peace or On 23 September 2015, the government and the FARC reached a historic agree- military actionsconsistentwiththeFARC’ssuspensionofalloffensiveactions. diate bilateralceasefire,thegovernmentsetinmotionade-escalationprocessof cessation ofhostilitiesandsurrenderweapons.Withoutagreeingtoanimme- agreements at the Table’), in particular on the termsoffinalbilateral ceasefire, simultaneous workonthecoreitemsofAgenda,whileconcurrentlybuilding nal agreementwithoutdelaybychangingtheformat(to‘atechnical,on-goingand agreement tode-escalatetheconflict.Eachdelegationagreedmovetowardsafi- qué entitled‘ExpediteinHavanaandde-escalateColombia,announcedamajor On July122015,thegovernmentandFARCnegotiatorsinajointcommuni- levels ofviolenceintheconflictsince1984. generally compliedwiththeirceasefireuptothatpoint,resultinginthelowest the soldierswasonlysevereviolationofceasefire,giventhatFARChad However, accordingtotheConflictanalysisresourcecentre(Cerac),attackon boosted thepopularityofitsmainopponent. The deathofthe11soldiersturnedpublicopinionagainstpeaceprocessand B. P CERAC, ‘Semanario18:Termina elCese Unilateral delas FARC; SeRecrudecerá elConflicto’, 24 May 2015, OTP, ‘Report onPreliminary ExaminationActivities 2015’, §235-236. Semana,‘Todo Está 2May alaBaja’, 2015, http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/gran-encuesta- ar BBC News, ‘Colombia: Peace Talks With ELNRebel Group Begin’, 8February 2017, http://www.bbc. MesaDeConversaciones, ‘Comunicado Conjunto #55.LaHabana, 12deJulio2015’, https://www. ties t o the Conflicts 183 182 186 185 Jurisdicción Especial Jurisdicción 184 staying outoftheillegaldrugstradeonideologicalgrounds. natural resources.ItwaslongseenasmorepoliticallymotivatedthantheFARC, country’s sovereigntyandforeigncompaniesareunfairlyexploitingColombia’s The groupbelievesforeigninvolvementinColombia’soilindustryviolatesthe not acompletelyspentforce.Inrecentyears,ELNunitshave becomeinvolvedin rebels wereabletospringoneoftheirleadersfromjail,indicating thattheywere military personnelandafurther62,000inreserve. 192 191 http://www.cfr.org/colombia/colombias-civil-conflict/p9272 190 https://www.justice.gov/archive/usao/nys/pressreleases/March06/farcindictmentpr.pdf. the World’s Cocaine’, 22March 2006, ‘United States Charges 50Leaders of Narco-Terrorist FARC inColombia With SupplyingMore Than Halfof the world’s cocaine andmore than60%of thecocaine thatenters theU.S.See U.S.Department of Justice, 189 globalsecurity.org/military/world/colombia/colombia_army.htm. 188 power.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=colombia. 187 hands ofthesecurityforcesandparamilitaries. since declinedfromaround4,000toanestimated1,500,sufferingdefeatsatthe kidnappings andhittinginfrastructuresuchasoilpipelines.TheELNrankshave The ELN reached the height of its power in the late 1990s, carrying out hundreds of drug trade, began financing its campaign through involvement in and taxationof the illegal mid-1980s. Whenparamilitaryforcesfoughtwiththegroupin1990s,FARC and continuedtohavestrongtiestheColombianCommunistPartyuntil through armedstruggle.FARCearlyongainedthesupportofSovietUnion, in 1964 with a mission to overthrow thegovernment and install a Marxist regime The oldest and largest of Colombia’s left-wing rebel groups, FARC-EP, was formed 2. Revolutionary ArmedForces ofColombia (FARC-EP) a liberationmovement,formedwiththegoalofoustingrulinggovernment. phy withastrongemphasisonsocialawarenessandjustice.ELNconsidereditself ism-Leninism aswellLiberationtheology,apredominantlyCatholicphiloso- leftist rebelgroupinColombiaaftertheFARC.ELNideologyisbasedonMarx- Founded in1964,theEjércitodeLiberaciónNacional(ELN)issecond-largest 3. National LiberationArmy(ELN) FARC, therebyendingtheconflictbetweentwoparties. At theend of 2016, a peaceagreementwassignedbetweenthegovernmentand lence againstcivilians,thisledtoalossofsupportamongthecivilianpopulation. Nacional) wasconsiderablylessthanthatsuggestedbytotalstrengthfigures. been claimed that the effective combat strength of the National Army (Ejército Voces de Colombia, https://eln-voces.com. Global Firepower, ‘Colombia Military Strength’, last updated 9February 2017, http://www.globalfire Ibid. Globalsecurity.org ‘Colombia —Army (Ejercito Nacional)’,GlobalSecurity.org, 4March 2012, www. According to aU.S. Department of Justice indictmentin2006, FARC generated more than50%of D. Renwick Felter, andC. ‘Colombia’s CivilConflict’, Council onForeign Relations, 11 January2017, 189 aswellkidnappingandextortion.Incombinationwithactsofvio- 192 However,inOctober2009,ELN 187 Inthepasthowever,ithas 191 188

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The Congress’svotethusbroughttoanenda60-year-oldconflictwiththeFARC. would beexpectedtoperformcommunityservice. ject toperiodsofrestrictedmobilityforfiveeightyears,duringwhichtimethey yers. Thosewhoadmittedtocrimeslikekidnappingsandexecutionswouldbesub- conflict toaspecialtribunalthatwouldincludeColombianandinternationallaw- their armstoUNpersonnelanddisclosethenatureofinvolvementin 193 by-pass voters,whohadturneddowntheaccordbyanarrowmarginon2October. cord. BypushingthenewdealthroughCongress,governmentchosethistimeto As aresult,on30November2016,Colombia’sCongressapprovedrevisedpeaceac- radera’). Final ParalaTerminacióndelConflictoyConstruccióndeunaPazEstableDu- ment for EndingConflict and Buildinga Stable andLong-LastingPeace (‘Acuerdo nearly fouryearsofnegotiations,thenegotiatingpartiessignedFinalAgree- FARC-EP beganinOsloandthenmovedtoHavana.On26September2016,after On 18October2012,peacetalksbetweentheGovernmentofColombiaand and Europeanlistsofterroristorganizations. the drugstrade,oftenformingallianceswithcriminalgangs.ELNremainsonUS https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/24/colombia-signs-historic-peace-deal-with-farc-rebels. 199 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/world/americas/colombia-farc-accord-juan-manuel-santos.html. 198 deal-with-farc. October 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/colombia-referendum-rejects-peace- 197 com/2016/08/26/opinion/colombias-remarkable-peace-process.html. 196 2016, http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/farc-colombia-peace-accord-1.3734814. 195 194 org/military/world/para/eln.htm. rebels inthelate1990. 3,000 activememberssincedecliningfromitsheydayofbetween4,000and5,000 resources andreducedoffensivecapability.By2017theELNhadbetween2,000 The ELNremainedactivewithapproximately2,000fightersbutdiminished ment beingrejectedby50.2%ofthevoters(37%Colombianelectorate). A nationalplebisciteheldon2October2016resulted,however,inthepeaceagree- less seriouscrimeslikedrugtraffickingwouldreceiveamnesty. C. Re N.Casey, ‘Colombia’s Congress Approves Peace Accord With FARC’, The New York Times , 30November S. Brodzinsky, ‘Colombia Referendum: Voters Reject Peace Deal With FARC Guerrillas’, The Guardian, 3 Globalsecurity.org, ‘Ejército deLiberación Nacional(ELN),NationalLiberation Army’, www.globalsecurity. CBC News, ‘Yes to peace: Colombia, FARC rebels reach historic deal to end5-decade war’, 24 August S. Brodzinsky, ‘Colombia SignsHistoric Peace Deal With Farc’, The Guardian, 24 November 2016, Globalsecurity.org, ‘Colombia —Army (Ejercito Nacional)’,9February 2017. The New York Times, ‘Colombia’s Remarkable Peace Process’, 25August 2016, http://www.nytimes. cent 195 Developments in 2016:Pea TheproposedagreementforesawthatFARCmemberswouldsurrender 194 ce Agreement 193

196 Thosewhohadcommitted with FARC 197 199 198

will betaskedwithtryingandsentencingindividualsaccused ofcommittingwar now restedwithafive-personpanelentitledtheSpecialPeace Jurisdiction,which against humanityandwarcrimes.TheOTPpointedoutthat theresponsibility FARC rebels,butcalledforthe‘genuine’prosecutionofperpetrators ofcrimes On 2September2016,theICCProsecutorwelcomedColombia’s peacedealwith OTP statedinNovember2016: Office oftheProsecutor(OTP)sinceJune2004.201Asinitspreviousreports, The situationinColombiahasbeenunderpreliminaryexaminationbytheICC’s of theRomeStatute. vember 2009,inaccordancewithColombia’sdeclarationpursuanttoArticle124 However, theCourtonlyhasjurisdictionoverwarcrimescommittedsince1No- ber 2002, in cases where national courts are unwilling or unable to prosecute. crimes committedintheterritoryofColombiaorbyitsnationalssince1Novem- (Rome Statute)inAugust2002.TheICChashadjurisdictionoverRomeStatute Colombia adheredtothe1998RomeStatuteofInternationalCriminalCourt 202 201 Examinations22Nov2012.pdf. int/NR/rdonlyres/C433C462-7C4E-4358-8A72-8D99FD00E8CD/285209/OTP2012ReportonPreliminary 200 D . War Crimes Alle OTP, ‘Report onPreliminary ExaminationActivities 2013’, November 2013, §118. OTP, ‘Report onPreliminary Examination Activities 2016’. OTP, ‘Report onPreliminary ExaminationActivities 2012’, November 2012, §98,https://www.icc-cpi. cases relatingtothisareaoffocusthepreliminaryexamination. situation, onthebasisofwhichOfficeisanalysingadmissibility of tion ofpotentialcasesthatwouldlikelyarisefromaninvestigation ofthe vant opensourcesinformationhasbeenanalysedtoinformthe identifica- rances knownasfalsepositives cases.Thisinformationtogetherwithrele- information onallegedcrimes,includingkillingsandenforceddisappea- 239. Duringthereportingperiod,Officecontinuedtoreceiveandgather 8(2)(e)(vii) oftheRomeStatute. listing andusingchildrentoparticipateactivelyinhostilitiesunderarticle other formsofsexualviolenceunderarticle8(2)(e)(vi);andconscripting,en- under article8(2)(c))(ii);takingofhostages8(2)(c)(iii);rapeand and crueltreatmentunderarticle8(2)(c)(i);outragesuponpersonaldignity der article8(2)(c)(i);attacksagainstciviliansunder8(2)(e)(i);torture armed conflictinColombia,including,since1November2009,murderun- of theStatutehave been committed in the context ofthe non-international 238.There isalsoareasonablebasistobelievethatwarcrimesunderarticle8 of sexualviolenceunderarticle7(1)(g)theStatute. liberty underarticle7(1)(e);torturearticle7(1)(f);rapeandotherforms under article7(1)(d);imprisonmentorotherseveredeprivationofphysical 2002, includingmurderunderarticle7(1)(a);forcibletransferofpopulation mitted in the situation in Colombia by different actors, since 1 November crimes againsthumanityunderarticle7oftheRomeStatutehavebeencom- 237.… theinformationavailableprovidesareasonablebasistobelievethat 200 ga tions, Inves 202 tiga tions, and Prose cutions

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 63 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 64 peace’ arenotwithinitsremitandfalltootherinstitutions. a positionconsistentwiththeICC’slongstandingthat‘theinterestsof added thattheProsecutorwasnot‘drivenbyconsiderationsofpeaceorsecurity’, should negotiate‘apeaceagreementthatwascompatiblewiththeStatute’and November 2012, http://news.yahoo.com/egypt-islamists-hurriedly-approve-constitution-043918749.html. 207 edition.cnn.com/2011/12/07/world/africa/egypt-prime-minister/index.html. 206 africa-13313371. 205 https://justiceinconflict.org/2016/10/13/peace-with-justice-in-colombia-why-the-icc-isnt-the-guarantor/. 204 org/news/icc-welcomes-colombia-peace-deal-urges-prosecutions. 203 Minister andheadoftheNationalunitygovernmentinDecember2011. Following EssamSharrafresignation,Kamalal-GanzouribecamethenewPrime of thoseseekingdemocraticreformandanendtodecadesarepressiveregime. uprising. TheproteststhatoustedPresidentHosniMubarakin2011raisedthehopes sentenced tolifeinprisonforcomplicitythekillingofprotestersduring2011 Supreme ArmedForcesCouncil(SCAF).HewentontrialinAugustandwaslater In February2011,PresidentMubaraksteppeddownandhandedthepowerto flict didnotreachthethresholdforapplicabilityof1977AdditionalProtocolII. armed forcesandthegroupknownasAnsarBaytal-Maqdis(ABM).Thecon- Egypt in2016wasinvolvedanon-internationalarmedconflictbetweenEgyptian Classification oftheconflict: 3. Eg crimes duringtheconflict. freedom ofspeechandassembly. assembly approvedadraftconstitutionthatmanyfearedcould furtherrestrict to challengehisdecisions.ThesamemonthanIslamist-dominated constituent In November,PresidentMorsiissuedadecreestrippingthejudiciaryofright century inJune2012. date, MohammedMorsiwonthefirstdemocraticpresidentialelectionsinhalfa a yearandhalfoftheinterimmilitarygovernment,MuslimBrotherhoodcandi- Protests increased until in July 2013 themilitary, in light of the demonstrators’ referendum. A Outside S inai . His H. Hendawi and M. Michael, ‘Egypt Islamists Hurriedly Approve New Constitution’, Yahoo News, 30 ICTJ, ‘ICC Welcomes Colombia Peace Deal, Urges Prosecutions’, 2September 2016, https://www.ictj. BBC News, ‘Egypt Country Profile —Overview’, 6November 2015, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- CNN, ‘Egyptian Prime Minister Given Added Powers, Swears in Cabinet’, 7 December 2011, http:// Justice inConflict, ‘Peace withJustice inColombia: Why theICC isn’ttheGuarantor’, 13October 2016, t yp ory of the Conflict t : The Strengthening 203 TheDeputyProsecutorstatedthatthegovernment 207 Suchdraftwaslaterpubliclyapprovedby of the Insurgenc 204 y

206 After 205 group, afterabombexplosionatgovernmentbuildinginMansoura. By theendof2013GovernmentdeclaredMuslimBrotherhoodaterrorist deterioration ofthesituationinSinai. claimed responsibilityfortheblast,whichkilled16people. lim Brotherhood,however,deniedanyinvolvementinthebombing,whileABM military helicopter. of asurface-to-airmissilebythemilitantson27Januaryinordertobringdown Cairo, multiple attacks continued in the Sinai Peninsula, which included the use At thebeginningof2015,anewSinai-basedmilitantgroupemergedfromsplit intensification oftheviolenceinarea. started draftinganewconstitutionandcurbedmediafreedom. recent history. es carriedoutoneoftheworld’slargestkillingsdemonstratorsinasingleday Square. AccordingtoHumanRightsWatch,inRab’aSquare,Egyptiansecurityforc- protesters in Cairo, one at al-Nahda Square and a larger one at Rabaa al-Adawiya Rabaa massacre: on 14 August2013 Egyptian security forces raided two camps of of stateviolenceondemonstratorsinmodernEgyptianhistory.Anexampleisthe Brotherhood inresponse.ThemonthofAugust2013hasseentheworstincidents demands, oustedMrMorsiandviolentlysuppressedtheprotestsit-insheldby 2014, http://world.time.com/2014/01/27/missile-attack-in-sinai-spell-trouble-for-israeli-airliners/.2014, 216 edition.cnn.com/2014/01/25/world/meast/egypt-blast/. 215 214 com/news/middleeast/2014/01/egypt-constitution-approved-981-percent-201411816326470532.html. 213 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/16/egyptian-voters-back-new-constitution.January 2014, 212 211 2013, http://www.thecommentator.com/article/4507/egypt_s_confused_ban_on_muslim_brotherhood. 210 209 www.hrw.org/news/2014/08/12/egypt-rab-killings-likely-crimes-against-humanity. 208 in theworstincidenton25January. creased aheadof,duringandafterthereferendum,withatleast49peoplekilled Clashes betweensupporters of the ousted President Morsi andsecurityforcesin- ratify Egypt’sthirdconstitution. January 2014,areferendumtookplace,wheremorethan90%ofvotersoptedto gave morerightstowomenanddisabledpeople. country’s threekeyinstitutions—themilitary,policeandjudiciary voters, less than the 50% predicted. BBC News, ‘Egypt country profile –Overview’, 17February 2015. Al Jazeera, ‘Egypt Constitution Approved by 98.1 Percent’, 24 http://www.aljazeera. January2014, CNN,‘At Least 49Dead inEgypt asThrongs Commemorate Revolution’, 26 http:// January2014, P. Kingsley, ‘Widespread Boycotts asEgyptian Voters BackNew Constitution’, The Guardian, 16 K.Vick, ‘Surface-to-Air Missile Attack inSinaiSpellsTrouble For Israeli Airliners’, The Times, 27 January Kingsley, ‘Widespread Boycotts asEgyptian Voters BackNew Constitution’. A. Abdel-Raheem, ‘Egypt’s A. confused ban on Muslim Brotherhood’, The Commentator, 26 December BBC News, ‘Egypt Profile — Timeline’, 23 April 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13315719. HumanRightsWatch, ‘Egypt: Rab’a KillingsLikely Crimesagainst Humanity’,12August http:// 2014, 208 Theseevents have beenseeninlightoffurtherradicalisationand 216 Thisattack,claimedbytheABM,representedasignificant 212 However,theturnoutwas38.6%ofregistered 213 215 Egypt’s new constitution strengthened the Whileseveralbombattackstookplacein 214 210 Thegovernment 211 On14and15 209 TheMus-

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 65 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 66 in theSinaiPeninsulaasjihadigroupABMpursueditsattacks. 2015, WilayatSinaiclaimedresponsibilityfordowninga attacks onIsraelitargetsandinterests. long-running rulerHosniMubarak.Thegroupwasinitiallyknownforlaunching ations immediatelyaftertheJanuary2011uprisingthatledtofallofEgypt’s org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/HJS-Terror-in-the-Sinai-Report-Colour-Web.pdf. 223 al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/12/egypt-ansar-maqdis-sinai-spread.html#ixzz3aCAoo0Bt. 222 www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25882504. 221 com/pulse/security/2014/11/egypt-ansar-maqdis-sinai.html#. 220 globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=egypt. 219 africa/egypt-al-wilayat-sinai/. Who Are Terror Group, Al–Wiayat Sinai?’,CNN,10 November 2015, http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/09/ 2015/11/17/496286f4-8d05-11e5-ae1f-af46b7df8483_story.html; F. Pleitgen, ‘Russian PlaneCrash: 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-confirms-sinai-crash-was-the-work-of-terrorists/ 218 north-africa/north-africa/egypt 217 tegic andtechnologicalcapacity’)wasashigh1.000. According to a different estimate, ABM’stotal number of fighters (with ‘high stra- group, inadditiontodefectingmembersfromtheMuslimBrotherhood. IS. Indeedseveralpeoplewhosupportedtheideaofajihadistcaliphatejoined ing frontsinsideotherEgyptiandistricts,especiallyafterpledgingallegianceto edly didnotexceed50peopleinsideSinai,butthegrouphadsucceededinopen- contradictory. Accordingtooneofthese,AnsarBaytal-Maqdismilitantsreport- The exactnumberoffightersisdifficulttoassess,asestimatesaredifferentand to IS. lem), butannouncedanamechangeinNovember2014whenitpledgedallegiance Sinai 2. SinaiProvince as well800.000reservepersonnel. Egyptian armedforcesareestimatedtoinclude470.000activefrontlinepersonnel 1. Egypt ArmedForces Province group. The partiestotheconflictin2016areEgyptanditsarmedforcesagainstSinai sponse toRussia’sfightagainstISinSyria. of ABM,duetoadisagreementoveritspledgeallegianceIS. B. P See generally, International CrisisGroup, ‘Egypt Profile’, at:,https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east- BBC News, ‘SinaiProvince: Egypt’s Most Dangerous Group’ militant group’, 12May 2016, http:// ar A. Roth, A. ‘Russia Confirms SinaiPlaneCrash Was theWork of Terrorists’, The Washington Post, 17November Global Firepower, ‘Egypt Military Strength: Manpower’, last updated 18February 2017, http://www. E.Dyer andO. Kessler, ‘Terror intheSinai’, The Henry Jackson Society, http://henryjacksonsociety. 2014, Al-Monitor, ‘After JoiningIS,AnsarBayt al-MaqdisExpands inEgypt’, 1 December http://www. 2014, Al-Monitor, ‘Ansar Bayt al-MaqdisJoinsIslamicState’, 13November http://www.al-monitor. 2014, 220 Province waspreviouslycalledAnsarBeital-Maqdis(ChampionsofJerusa- ties t AnsarBeital-Maqdiswasanal-Qaeda-inspiredgroupthatstarteditsoper- o the Conflict 221 219 218

Violence continuedthroughout2016

223

Russian airplaneinre-

217 InOctober 222

the KarnakTempleinLuxor. counterterrorism operations, claimed responsibility for the attack. outfit called the Popular Resistance Movement, which opposes the government’s killed bygunmeninasuburbofCairo.BothIS’sEgyptianbranchandan drove nearapolicestation. killed andthreewoundedwhenanimprovisedbombexplodedastheirconvoy more attacksinthefuture.InaseparateISattackArish,onepolicemanwas Sinai Peninsula.IslamicStateclaimedresponsibilityfortheattackandthreatened In themonthofJune,IslamistmilitantsgunneddownaChristianpriestinEgypt’s attacks outsideSinai,atprimetouristdestinationsnearthepyramidsinGiza rapidly in2015and2016thecountry.In2015,groupcarriedoutseparate The rateofterroristattacks by WilayatSinaiandother Islamist militantsgrew reuters.com/article/us-egypt-islamicstate-idUSKCN10F24W. 230 com/article/us-egypt-violence-idUSKCN0ZG23Q. 229 flight-804.html?_r=0. The New York Times, 19May 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/world/middleeast/egyptair- D. Walsh andK.Fahim, ‘EgyptAir FlightBelieved to Have Crashed atSea; Egypt Cites Possible Terrorism’, aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/egyptair-flight-ms804-plane-disappeared-radar-160519031853365.html; 228 www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-police-attack-idUSKCN0XZ00U. 227 Times, 23April2016, http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-us-sinai-20160423-story.html. 226 attacks-Egypts-Luxor-temple-tourist-site.html. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/11664436/Suicide-bomber- Telegraph, 10 June2015, 225 attacked-giza-pyramids.html. York Times , 4April2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/world/middleeast/egypt-policemen- 224 Duaa al-Ansari,leaderoftheSinaibranchIS. In thefirstweekofAugust2016,EgyptianMilitaryclaimedtohavekilledAbu insula neartheEgypt-Israeliborder. In April2016,thePentagondecidedtoshifttroopsfromabaseinSinaiPen- possibility couldnotbetotallyruledout. while flyingfromParistoCairo;noevidenceofterroristattackwasfoundbutthe month, aflightcarrying56passengersand10crewmembersofEgyptAircrashed C. La Outside Sinai Reuters, ‘Gunmen KillEightPolice inCairo Suburb, IslamicState ClaimsAttack’, 8May 2016, http:// L.Loveluck andM.Samaan,‘Suicide BomberAttacks Egypt’s Luxor Temple Tourist Site’, The AlJazeera, ‘Families Wait for Answers to Missing EgyptAir Plane’,20 May 2016, http://www. Reuters, ‘Egypt Military Says Killed Leader of Islamic State inSinai’,4August 2016, http://www. W.J. Hennigan,‘U.S.shiftstroops intheSinaiPeninsula after attacks by militants’, Los Angeles Reuters, ‘IslamicState KillsChristian Priest inEgypt’s NorthSinai’,30June2016, http://www.reuters. M. Thomas and A. Smale,‘Two M.Thomas andA. Egyptian Policemen Shot Dead Near thePyramids of Giza’, The New tes t Developments in 2016: The Strengt hening 229 225

226 InMay2016,eightpoliceofficerswere 228 230 of the Insurgenc 227 In the same 224 y and

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 67 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 68 key positionsbeganon8August2014,withtheconsentof government. bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27905849. break, wewillbreakotherborders’. new caliphate in Iraq and Syria and warns ‘[t]his is not the first border we will and SyriaaftertheFirstWorldWar.InvideoanISspokesperson explainsthe cot’, areferencetotheagreementbetweenFranceandBritainondividingupIraq province of Diyala.On29 June 2014, IS released a video, entitled ‘End of Sykes Pi- ritory theycontrol stretching from Aleppo in North West Syriato the eastern Iraqi In June2014,ISmilitantsdeclaredthattheyhadestablishedacaliphateintheter- under itscontrolineasternSyriaandwesternIraq. ders withSyriaandJordan,givingittheopportunitytoconnectmainareas quickly managedtotakecontroloversomeofthemajorcheckpointsonbor- growing insecurityandgreatlyexpandedtheiroperationsinIraq.IslamicState ment protestintheAnbarprovinceatendof2013,IStookadvantage across thecountryinlate2011.Followingaviolentcrackdownonanti-govern- Baghdad. Thesetensionswereventedinanti-governmentproteststhaterupted ation ofthecountry’sSunniminorityfromShia-dominatedgovernmentin Deep politicaltensionshavebeenmountinginIraqsince2011owningtoalien- sent andattheinvitationofIraqigovernment. flict intoaninternationalarmedconflict,sincetheywereconductedwiththecon- air strikes on IS by the US-led international coalition has not transformed the con- armed forces,supportedbyaninternationalcoalition,andtheIslamicState.The In 2016andsince2014,therewasanon-internationalarmedconflictbetweenIraqi Classification oftheconflict: 1. Iraq: Milit There havebeennoallegationsofwarcrimesconcerningtheNIACincountry. Egypt hassignedbutnotratifiedtheRomeStatuteofInternationalCriminalCourt. 232 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/30/isis-announces-islamic-caliphate-iraq-syria.June 2014, 231 coalition toconductairstrikesagainstISinIraq. threw the region into chaos and led to Iraqi government to formally invite a US-led The rapidadvanceacrossnorthernIraq(andSyria)bymilitant fightersfromIS er ofthenewcaliphate. A D . War Crimes Alle . His M.Tran andM.Weaver, ‘IsisAnnounces IslamicCaliphate inArea Straddling Iraq andSyria’, The Guardian , 30 BBC News, ‘Iraq Formally AsksUSto LaunchAirStrikes Against Rebels’, http://www. 18June2014, t ory of the Conflict ary Gains Agains ga tions, Inves 231 tiga AbuBakral-Baghdadiisdeclaredasthelead- tions, and Prose t Islamic 232 Coalition airstrikesagainstIS St a te cutions thousands ofcivilianstrappedonthemountaintoescape. secured aroutedownthemountaintherebyprovidingopportunityfortensof gust theKurdishPeople’sProtectionUnits(YPG)withassistanceofUSairstrikes gan airdropsofhumanitarianaidtothethosetrappedonmountain.Inmid-Au- cil, and at the request of the Iraqi Government the US, UK, France and Australia be- with USairsupport,broketheISsiegeofmountSinjarinDecember2014. ney down.Anoperationconductedbyapproximately8,000KurdishPeshmerga, of civiliansremainedstrandedonthemountaintofearfulorfrailmakejour- rity forces retook control of the strategic city of Ramadi, Significant coalitiongainswerealsomadeinlateDecember2015,whenIraqisecu- On the8 forced intosexualslavery. Yezidi werekilledandthousandsofwomengirlsrapedorabducted Yezidi minorityinanareaaroundSinjar,northwesternIraq.Thousandsof In earlyAugust2014ISbeganabrutalethnic-cleansingcampaignagainstIraq’s boosting. com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21684689-retaking-ramadi-iraqs-security-forces-have-won-morale- 239 of-its-territory-in-iraq/. 28 June2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/top-u-s-official-islamic-state-has-lost-47-percent- 238 Territories’, 2016 http://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/0814_Inherent-Resolve. 237 bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-30539170. 236 FINAL_6July_10September2014.pdf. September 2014 , http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/IQ/UNAMI_OHCHR_POC_Report_2014, 235 legraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11024987/Mount-Sinjar-Iraqs-mountain-of-death.html. 234 ry_in_Islamic_State_captivity_in_Iraq_-_English.pdf. Iraq https://www.es.amnesty.org/uploads/media/Escape_from_hell_-_Torture_and_sexual_slave, 2014, 233 lition conductedover14,000airstrikesinIraqandSyria. As violencecontinuedthroughout2015and2016,theUS-ledinternationalcoa- with verylittleaccesstoshelter,water,food,andmedicalsupplies. Sinijar. Bymid-August150,000thousandpeoplewerestrandedupthemountain had lost47% Province inwesternIraq. U.S.Department of Defense, ‘Operation Inherent Resolve Targeted Operations Against ISIS Amnesty International, Escape from Hell:Torture andSexual Slavery inIslamicState Captivity in OHCHRandUNAMI,Report ontheProtection of Civilians inArmed Conflict inIraq: 6July–10 J. Hudson, ‘Top U.S.Official:IslamicState HasLost 47 Percent of itsTerritory inIraq’, Foreign Policy, The Economist, ‘Reclaiming theRuins from IslamicState’, 2January2016, http://www.economist. BBC News, ‘Mount Sinjar: Islamic State Siege Broken, Say Kurds’, 19 December http://www.2014, J. Krohn, ‘MountSinjar:Iraq’s Mountain of Death, The Telegraph, 19August 2014 ,http://www.te th of August2014,followinganemergencysessionattheUNSecurityCoun- 238 ofitsterritoryinIraq,accordingtotheUSDepartmentState. 233 ToescapetheviolencemanyYezidifledupmount 239 235 237 the capital of the Anbar Neverthelessthousands As ofAugust2016,IS 234 236

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 69 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 70 members forcorruption. ers occupiedtheparliamentbuilding,demandingreformandblaming 244 news/world-middle-east-31727470. 243 power.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Iraq. 242 storm-iraqi-parliament-in-baghdad/2016/04/30/0862fd3a-0ec1-11e6-8ab8-9ad050f76d7d_story.html. Parliament’, 241 troublemaking-protesters/2016/05/01/e6e4d070-0f24-11e6-bc53-db634ca94a2a_story.html. Post 240 edly controlsseveralofthemilitiagroupsdirectly. weapons andmilitaryadviserstomilitiainthePopularMobilisation,report- mander who is close to Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Iran provides funding, hammed, alsoknownasAbuMahdial-Mohandis,aformerBadrOrganisationcom- IS acrossnorthernIraq.ThePopularMobilisationisheadedbyJamalJaafarMo- government inJune2014afterthearmycollapsedfaceofanadvanceby been takingaleadroleinIraqioperationsagainstIS.ItwasformedbytheShia-led The Popular Mobilisation comprises of dozens of Shia militia groups, andhas 2. Popular Mobilisation (Hashid Shaabi) in reserve. The IraqiArmyisreportedtocurrentlyhave272,000activepersonneland528,500 1. IraqiArmy are aselectionofsomethemainactors. There arenumerousarmedactorstakingpartintheconflictIraq.Thefollowing government buildingsthatciviliansareprohibitedfromentering. protesters breached Baghdad’s Green Zone, the heavily fortified area surrounding Sectarian tensionshavecontinuedtorise.InApril2016,anti-governmentShiite 245 mec.org/diwan/62638?lang=en. May 2015, http://www.orsam.org.tr/files/Raporlar/rapor198/198eng.pdf. his tenureasPrimeMinister. the recruitmentarethosethatalsohadgoodrelationswithNouri al-Malikiduring in recruitment. ment administersitandShiareligiousscholarsfromtheHawzaareinstrumental cials, therecruitmentcampaignisalsosuccessfulbecausereligiousestablish- fend theircountryanditsholysites.AccordingtoShiitePopularMobilisationoffi- Shia cleric,GrandAyatollahAliSistani,calledonpeopletotakeuparmsandde- Thousands volunteeredtofightinthePopularMobilisationafterIraq’smostsenior B. P , 1May 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iraqi-prime-minister-orders-arrest-of- L. Morris and M. Salim, ‘State of Emergency Declared in Baghdad as the Protesters Take Iraqi ar BBC News, ‘Iraqi Forces Seek to Encircle ISFighters inTikrit’, 4March 2015, http://www.bbc.com/ ORSAM, ANew Controversial Actor InPost ISISIraq: al-Hasadal-Shaabi (the Popular Mobilization Forces), Global Firepower, ‘Iraq Military Strength’, last updated 20 February 2017, http://www.globalfire Carnegie MiddleEast Center, ‘The Popularity of theHashdinIraq’, Diwan , 1February 2016, http://carnegie- L. Morris, ‘Protesters Leave Baghdad’s Green Zone a Day After Ransacking Parliament’, ties t The Washington Post, 30April2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/protesters- 242 o the Conflicts 244 IthasbeenobservedthattheSunniArabtribestookpart in 241 245 243

240 Theprotest- The Washington

control. IHSConflictMonitoranalystssuggestthisfigureisnownearer6million. held inJanuary2015.Atitspeak,some10millionpeoplelivedterritoryunderIS In July2016, it wasallegedthat IS hadlost about aquarter of theterritorythatit to gathercashandassetsworthup$2billion. activities suchassmugglingandextortionfromlocalbusinesses,haveenabledIS in IraqandeasternSyria,combinedwithincomefromforeigndonorscriminal and Mosul.Thefundsseizedthroughtheseinvasionstheseizureofoilfields in bothSyriaandIraq,capturingseveralmajorcities,includingRaqqa,Fallujah from al-Qaeda, it expanded its operations in Syria and experienced military success Al-Sham, under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.246 Despite IS’sseparation split fromAl-NusraandbeganactingunderthenameIslamicStateofIraq al-Jawlani, andtheleaderofal-Qaeda,Aymanal-Zaqahiri.InMay2013group declaration wasrejectedbyboththeleaderofJabhatAl-Nusra,AbuMohammed also knownastheIslamicStateofIraqandLevant.However,thisunilateral was merging with Jabhat Al-Nusra to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham, affiliated IslamicStateofIraq,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,announcedthathisgroup in early2013,growingoutofal-QaedaIraq.InApriltheleader Under itsformername,IslamicStateinIraqandtheLevant(ISIL),ISwasformed 3. Islamic State(IS) joseph-v-micallef/the-business-of-isis_b_11142954.html. 250 ForeignFightersUpdate3.pdf. Into Syria andIraq, December 2015, http://soufangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/TSG_ 249 bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27838034. 248 247 246 the fallofOttomanEmpireinwakeFirstWorld War.AstheKurdish were formallyorganizedasthenationalfightingforceof Kurdish peopleafter ing backtogroupsoflooselyorganizedtribalborderguardsin thelate1800s,but lead roleintryingtoretakeNorthernIraq.TheKurdishPeshmerga haverootslead- Since IStookcontrolofMosulinJune2014,theKurdishPeshmerga havetakena 4. Kurdish Peshmerga longer generatingenoughrevenuetofunditsoperations. A reportinThe Huffington PostinJuly2016saiditseemedlikelythatISwasno from 86countries, more thanhalfofthem from theMiddleEast and NorthAfrica. consultancy SoufanGroupestimatedthat27,000foreignjihadistshadmadethetrip Iraq tojoinIS.Areportpublished in December 2015 bytheNewYork-basedsecurity ate also triggered a surge inthe number of foreignfighters travelling toSyria and donesia, France,Belgium,theU.S.andBangladesh.Theproclamationofcaliph- During 2016, IS also claimed attacks in a number of countries including Turkey, In- M.Chulov, ‘How anarrest inIraq revealed Isis’s $2bnjihadist network’. J.V. Micallef, ‘The Business of ISIS’,The World Post, 24 July2016, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ BBC News, ‘IslamicState andtheCrisis inIraq andSyria inMaps’, September 21 2016, http://www. The Soufan Group, Foreign Fighters: AnUpdated Assessment of theFlow of Foreign Fighters BBC news, ‘Profile of IslamicState andLeader, AbuBakral-Baghdadi’. 247 250 249 248

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 71 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 72 but hasdeniedfurtherrequestsfromthePashmergaformoreweaponry. Britain hassuppliedthePeshmergawith40heavymachinegunsandammunition, 257 http://aranews.net/2016/09/scores-of-kurdish-peshmergas-killed-in-isis-attack-near-iraqs-khazir/. 256 com/indepth/opinion/2016/07/160727120458839.html. 255 weaponry-to-take-their-fight-to-isis. February 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/22/kurdish-peshmerga-call-for-heavy- 254 videos/world/2015/02/25/pkg-wedeman-iraq-kurdish-fighter-training.cnn. 253 aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/mapping-out-iraq-fighting-groups-201462494731548175.html. 252 world-middle-east-28738975. 251 exports anddiscussingtheimpendingbattleforMosul. the IraqiPrimeMinister,HaiderAbadi,inBaghdad,reachingagreementsonoil amongst othersintheanti-ISMosuloperation.AtopKurdishdelegationmetwith central command,theIraqiKurdistan’sPeshmergaforceswillplayacriticalrole of Khazir toprevent any infiltration attempt by ISIS militants. According to US After theattack,Kurdishforceswereheavilydeployedinsurroundings fighters, andareparticularlyformidableincombatmountainousterrain. The Peshmergaareconsideredtobewell-trained,organizedandbattle-hardened Saddam’s armyorpurchasedinlateryearsfromformerCommunist-Bloccountries. fighters. TheyaremainlyarmedwithSoviet-styleweapons,eitherseizedfrom The KurdishPashmergaarethoughttonumberaround190,000maleandfemale secure anindependentKurdishstate. seen asakeypartofKurdishculture.TheultimateobjectivethePeshmergaisto nationalist movementgrew,sotoodidtheidentityofPeshmergawhoarenow next stageofthewaragainstIS. tan RegionalGovernment(KRG)regardingUS-Kurdishmilitarycooperationinthe On 12July2016theU.S.signedamemorandumofunderstandingwithKurdis- US armedforces,whichconsiderthegroupascrucialintheirfightagainstIS. The PashmergahavereceivedcombattrainingfromGerman,Italian,Britishand According toonePeshmergaofficer,JamshidHamo: merga forcesinnorthernIraq,killingandwoundinganumberofKurdishsoldiers. On 18September2016,ISlaunchedanoffensiveontheheadquartersofPesh- BBC News, ‘Profile: Who are the Peshmerga?’, 12 August http://www.bbc.com/news/2014, Ibid. CNN,‘Kurdish Peshmerga Learn Tactics to FightISIS’,25February 2015, http://edition.cnn.com/ A. Bayoumi A. andL.Harding, ‘MappingIraq’s FightingGroups’, AlJazeera, 27 http://www. June2014, M.Knights,‘The US,thePeshmerga andMosul’,AlJazeera, 28July2016, http://www.aljazeera. ARA News, ‘Scores of Kurdish Peshmergas Killed inISISAttack Near Iraq’s Khazir’,19September 2016, M.Chulov, ‘Kurdish Peshmerga Callfor Heavy Weaponry to Take Their Fightto ISIS’,The Guardian, 22 on suchattackswithcarbombsandmortarshells. They’ve lostmanybattleswiththePeshmerga,that’swhytheynowdepend Daesh terrorists(ISIS)aretryingtoavoidclasheswiththePeshmergaforces. 255

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voice andshoutsothecorruptgetscaredofyou’,heencouragedpeople. ‘Abadi mustcarryoutgrassrootsreform’,Sadrsaidinfrontoftheprotesters.‘Raiseyour to protestagainstcorruptioninIraqandthegovernment’sfailuredeliveronreforms. On 26February2016,Sadrledamillion-mandemonstrationinBaghdad’sTahrirSquare tive ofdefeatingISforthepurposereunifyingIraq. Peace Brigadeclaimtobeanationalistratherthansectarianforce,withtheobjec- 27 March,hehimselfwalkedintotheGreenZonetobeginasit-in, urgingfollowers the largestweaponsarsenalsinIraq,includinglong-rangemissiles. Sadr claims he has 60,000 loyal fighters who are thoughtto have access to one of porters toregroupdefendthepeople,country,religionandholyplaces. In responsetoISinIraq,powerfulShiacleric,Muqtadaal-Sadr,calledonhissup- 6. SadrFighters/ Sadr’sPeace Brigades/SarayaAl-SalamShia presence byattackinganarmedvehicle. tured Mosul. On 16 September 2016, IAI released a video allegedly showing its IAI’s lastattackwaswithISagainsttheIraqimilitarywhentheysuccessfullycap- that eruptedacrossIraqin2011. inactive period,thegroupwasseenasasupporterofanti-governmentprotests influence insideIraq,especiallyasUSforcesbegantowithdraw.Afterarelatively portedly shifteditsattentionmoretowardswhatitconsideredgrowingIranian joined theUS-backedAwakeningCouncilstofightal-Qaeda.Thegroupalsore- Iraqi militaryofficers.During2006-2007,someIAImemberswerethoughttohave after theUSinvasionofIraqin2003.Thegroupisthoughttobeledbyformer The IslamicArmyofIraq(IAI)isonethemajorSunniarmedgroupsthatformed 5. Islamic ArmyofIraq http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-sadr-idUSKCN0WJ241 263 offensive.php. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/05/sadrs-peace-brigades-prepares-for-mosul- 262 http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/26022016. 261 150223091549767.html http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/02/sunni-boycott-threatens-reconciliation-efforts-iraq- 260 259 258 will notincludetheShiamilitias. aid theIraqigovernmentinliberatingMosul,buthasinsistedthatoperation to retake the northern city of Mosul from the IS. The US militaryis preparing to Since May2016Sadrhasbeenpreparinghismilitiatoparticipateinanoffensive outside theGreenZone,whichhecalled‘abastionofsupportfor corruption’. Rudaw, ‘Shiite ClericSadrLeads 1MillionManAnti-Gov’t Demonstration’, 26 February 2016, Reuters, ‘Iraq’s SadrSpurnsCallsto Drop Sit-In Over “Bastion of Corruption”’, 17March 2016, S.al-Salhy, ‘SunniBoycott Threatens Reconciliation Efforts inIraq’, Al Jazeera, 23 February 2015, A. Bayoumi A. andL.Harding, ‘MappingIraq’s fightinggroups’. IslamicArmy of Iraq, 17September 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlN82SSDQ8w.A B.Roggio, ‘Sadar’sPeace BridgesPrepares for MosulOffensive’, FDD’s Long War Journal,17March 2017, 258 262

On18March,Sadr’sfollowersbeganasit-in 259 . 260 261 TheSadr 263 On On

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 73 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 74 news/2016/08/iraq-troops-advance-isil-held-mosul-160814054001692.html. 271 http://english.aawsat.com/2016/07/article55354349/u-s-offer-military-support-kurdish-peshmerga. 270 com/news/2016/07/signs-military-aid-deal-iraq-kurdish-fighters-160714071048418.html. 269 mosul.html?_r=0. ISIS’, 268 www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-carter-idUSKCN0XF1ZP. 267 http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/26/middleeast/falluja-liberated-isis/. 266 com/news/2016/06/90000-civilians-fallujah-160608163552169.html. 265 http://uk.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-iraq-sadr-idUKL5N16Z0EC. 264 an offensivetoretakeseveralvillagesnearMosul, On 14August2016,Iraqiforces,ledbytheKurdishPeshmergaarmy,launched The BattleofMosul (ongoingsinceOctober2016) they battleIS. vide selectmembersoftheKurdishPeshmergaforceswith$415millioninaidas On 14 July 2016, the U.S.signed a deal with the Iraqi Kurdistan government to pro- additional 200 troops The ObamaadministrationannouncedinApril 2016 thattheU.S.woulddeployan tle. six months.Upto90,000civilianswereallegedlytrappedinthecityduringbat- ture FallujahstartedinMay,butthecityhadbeenunderadefactosiegeforabout after Mosul,andwasseizedby the groupinJanuary 2014. Theoperationtorecap- Fallujah was considered to be the second mostimportantstrongholdofIS in Iraq The battleofFallujah (May–June 2016) the GreenZonekissedSadr’shandasheallowedhimtoenter. to stayoutsideandremainpeaceful.TheIraqiarmygeneralinchargeofsecurityat According toCNN,over1,800ISmilitantswerekilledduringtheoperation. the totalnumberofUStroopstoapproximately4,647. Mosul, thelargestcityunderISrule,andanother560troopsinJuly2016,bringing and militarysupportintheformofweapons,ammunitionequipment. C. La 265 AlJazeera, ‘Iraq: Troops Advance onISIL-Held Mosul’,14August 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/ Y. Torbati, ‘U.S.to SendMore Troops to Iraq to Tackle IslamicState’, Reuters, 18April2016, http:// The New York Times, 11 July2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/12/world/middleeast/us-iraq- D. Abdullah,‘U.S.to Offer Military Supportto Kurdish Peshmerga’, Ashraq Al-Awsat, 13July2016, AlJazeera, ‘UN:Upto 90,000 CiviliansInsideISIL-Held Fallujah’, 8June2016, http://www.aljazeera. Al Jazeera, ‘USSignsMilitary AidDeal With Iraq’s Kurdish Fighters’, 14July2016, http://www.aljazeera. M.S. SchmidtandM.Landler, M.S. ‘U.S.willdeploy 560More Troops to Iraq to HelpRetake Mosulfrom E.McKirdy andH.Alkhshali,‘Iraqi General: “The Battle for Falluja isOver”’, CNN,26 June2016, Reuters, ‘Iraq’s Sadr Begins Sit-In InsideGreen Zone, Tells Supporters to Stay Outside’, 27 March 2016, tes Amonthlater,theIraqiarmywasabletowincityfromarmedgroup. t Developments in 2016: Milit 269 AKurdishgovernmentspokesmansaidtheaidincludedfinancial 267 to advise and assist Iraqi security forces advancing toward ary Gains Agains 271 268 leadingtoconcernsabout t 264 Islamic St a te 270 266

retaking thecity’seasternhalfprecedingmonth, ment forceslaunchedanoffensivetoliberatethewesternpartofcity,after two ofthevictims,withassistancelawyerAmalClooney, respect andprotectionfortheestimated650,000civilianstrappedincity. ting genocideagainsttheYazidis. In June2016,theUNCommissionofInquiryonSyriastatedthatISwascommit- the displacementofcivilianpopulation. genocide-issue-at-international-criminal-court/. Court’, 2August 2016, http://v6.yazda.org/v6/press/yazidis-request-russian-federation-to-raise-yazidi- 280 amal-clooney-takes-isis-clear-case-genocide-yazidis-n649126. cide” of Yazidis’, NBC News, 19September 2016, http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-uncovered/ 279 15June2016, http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/CoISyria/A_HRC_32_CRP.2_en.pdf. 278 com/news/world-middle-east-39018519. 277 world-middle-east-37702442. 276 news/world-middle-east-38459024. 275 com/news/world-middle-east-37709970. 274 273 August 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/24/world/middleeast/isis-mosul-iraq.html?ref=world. 272 self-proclaimed governments—theHouseofRepresentatives(HoR)inTobrukand UN ‘UnityGovernment’—GeneralNationalAccord(asolutionbetweenthetwo as ‘LibyaDawn’andtheAnsaral-Shariaarmedgroup.Afterformationof armed groups,includingatleastthe‘LibyaShield’,groupofmilitiaknown Since 2014,Libyahasbeenmarredbyarmedviolencebetweenseveralnon-state Classification oftheconflict: 5. Lib case attheUNSecurityCouncil,forapossiblereferraltocourt. the casetobebroughtbeforeICC,notablybypressuringRussiapleadtheir made someprogressinthefollowingmonths. trol. remaining asof June 2016,Mosulwas the largest population centreunder IS con- D . War Crimes Alle J. Malsin‘The Next War for Iraq’, Time, 13June2016, http://time.com/isis-mosul/. BBC News, ‘MosulBattle:UNPlea to Protect Trapped Civilians’, 18February 2017, http://www.bbc. BBC, ‘MosulBattle:Iraqi BBC, Forces Advance inFresh Push’,29December 2016, http://www.bbc.com/ BBC News, ‘MosulBattle:Kurds Launch“Large-Scale” Offensive’, 20 October 2016, http://www.bbc. R. Gladstone, ‘1.2 MillionIraqis R.Gladstone, Could ‘1.2 beUprooted inMosulBattle,U.N. Says’, The New York Times, 23 HRC ‘“They Cameto Destroy”: ISISCrimesAgainst theYazidis’, UNdoc.A/HRC/32/CRP.2, BBC News, ‘Battlefor Mosul:The Story so Far’, 3March 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/ C. McFadden, C. J. Whitman andH.Rappleye, ‘Amal Clooney Takes onISISfor “clear case geno - 273 Yazda, ‘Yazidis Request Russian Federation to Raise Yazidi GenocideIssue atInternational Criminal TheoperationtoretakeMosuleffectivelystartedinOctober2016, ya: The Amplifica ga tions, Inves tion of Chaos 278 WhileIraqisnotapartytotheRomeStatute, tiga tions, and Prose 272 275 Withroughly600,000residents In February2017,Iraqigovern- 276 whiletheUNcalledfor cutions 279 arepushingfor 280 274 277 and

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 75 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 76 Zintan alliedtoLibyaDignity continued andledtomanyciviliancasualties. Al-Thinni wasappointedasthenewinterimprimeministeruntilelections. of Tripoli. victorious in the 2014 elections and established their government at Tobruk instead the backgroundofboycotts and insecurities,theCouncil of Representativesemerged 289 28510865 288 chapters/libya?page=3. 287 ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/933dac82-efb7-11e3-9b4c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ZkT4mdnD. 286 www.businessinsider.com/r-libyan-supreme-court-rules-pms-election-unconstitutional-2014-09?IR=T. 285 news/world-africa-27276153. 284 4 May http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/04/us-libya-politics-idUSBREA4304720140504. 2014, 283 www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya 282 281 spilled overtothesouth,withsomegroupsallyingOperationDignityor particularly inSabha,AwbariandAl-Kufra.Armedconflictsthenorthalso In 2014and2015,tribalarmedgroupsengagedinlocalizedhostilitiesthesouth, to bequestioned, icate Islamicterrorism.Meanwhile,thelegalityofMaiteeq’sappointmentcontinued launched amilitaryoperation(‘operationdignity’)inBenghaziwiththeaimtoerad- Minister. Asaresult,GeneralKhalifaHifterformedthe‘Libyadignityalliance’and ceived as backed byMisrata-based Islamist groups, was appointed as the newPrime The situation in Libya deteriorated in May 2014 when Ahmed Maiteeq, widely per- the GeneralNationalCongress(GNC)inTripoli)January2016, exercise effectivecontrol. the Tripolibasedgovernment(GNC)hadtheirleadersbutnoneoftwocould prime Minister,thisledtostronginstabilityasbothTobrukbasedgovernmentand Tobruk basedparliamentoftheHouseRepresentativesdeclaredTinniasnew of his appointment as illegal. conflict inLibya2016canbeclassifiedasanon-internationalarmedconflict. olence betweentheUN’sGeneralNationalAccord(backedbyU.S.)andIS.The advent ofIS,theyear2016witnessedbeginninganotherroundarmedvi- Court alsoconfirmedtheillegalityofhisappointment. A . His BBC News, ‘Libya Profile —Timeline’, 10 August 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13755445. HumanRightsWatch, ‘World Report 2015: Libya’, http://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country- F. BosalumandU. Laessing, ‘Maiteeq Installed asLibya’s New PMbutDismissed by Speaker’, Reuters, ‘Libyan Supreme Court Rules PM’sElection Unconstitutional’, Business Insider, http:// 9June2014, Unless otherwise stated, thissection is based on the Crisis Watch Database profile of Libya, https:// BBC News, ‘Libya http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa- ClashesKill38inBenghazi’, 28July2014, HumanRightsWatch, ‘World Report 2015: Libya’. FinancialTimes, ‘Supreme Court inLibya Reinstates Former PrimeMinister’, http://www. 9June2014, BBC News, ‘Libya Congress Rejects New PMAhmed Maiteg’, 4May http://www.bbc.com/ 2014, t ory of the Conflict 287 TheclashesinTripolibetweenLibyaDawn(Islamicfaction)andthe 283 leadingthechairmanofcongresstofinallydeclarevote 289 284

282 Maiteeq had to finally step down after the Supreme 285 Asaresultofhisremoval, 281 andwiththe 288

286 The In

cooperating withfactionsfromMisrata. hard-line andmoderateIslamistgroups,membersoftheethnicBerberminority, Libya Dawn,aMisrata-ledmilitiathatincludesIslamistfactions,isanallianceof 1. LibyaDawn place withconsent,thenatureofarmedconflictremainsnon-international. invitation oftheunitygovernmentbackedbyUN.Asinterventiontook In August2016,theU.S.launchedsustainedairoperationsagainstISinSirteat Islamic Stategroup. government, and Ansaral-Sharia, which has nowreportedly been integrated in the by theTobruk-basedgovernment;LibyaDawn,whichsupportsTripoli-based The parties to theNIACin Libya in2016arethe Libya DignityAlliance,backed Libya Dawn. news/world-africa-37188226. 293 here-are-the-key-players-fighting-the-war-for-libya-all-over-again/. Washington Post, 27 August http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/08/27/2014, 292 bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-19744533. 291 doc. A/HRC/31/47, 15February 2016. 290 thought tohavebeendeployedinSirte. mated thatthe group hasabout5,000fightersinthecountry,manyofwhomwere There are no reliable figures about the number of IS militants in Libya but it is esti- the supportofUSairstrikes,ISwaspushedbackfrom cityinAugust2016. out duringtheyear.Thegroupwentontotakecontrolof cityofSirte.With 2015, IShadbuiltapresenceintheeasterncityofDerna,from whereitwasdriven A majordevelopmentonthegroundinLibya2015was emergenceofIS.In 3. Islamic State(IS) control ofBirakal-ShatiairportincentralLibya,over700kmsouthTripoli. Libya Shieldisfurtherbrokendownintosmallergroups.ItsThirdForceseized gnized Tripoliauthoritiesaspartofits‘MinistryDefence’forces.TheCentral The CentralLibyaShieldsupportsthedefunctGNCandisviewedbyunreco- rate invariouspartsofthecountry. The LibyaShieldgroupismadeupofseveralmilitiasthesamenamethatope- 2. LibyaShield ‘armed forces’oftheGNC,formerparliamentwhichhasreconvenedinTripoli. B. P ar See for furtherinformation, BBC News, ‘Guide to Key Libyan Militias’, 11 January2016, http://www. BBC News, ‘What Next for IslamicState inLibya After Sirte?’, 27 August 2016, http://www.bbc.com/ I.Tharoor Taylor, andA. ‘Here Are theKey Players FightingtheWar for Libya, AllOver Again’, The Investigation by theOffice of theUnited Nations High Commissioner for HumanRightsonLibya, UN ties t

290 o the Conflict

291 292 293 Themilitiaalliancecanbeviewedasthe

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 77 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 78

and gainedprominencefollowingthedeathofMuammaral-Qaddafi. initially manifestedasarevolutionarybrigadeduringthe2011Libyanrevolution was Mohamedal-Zahawi.Afterhisdeath,probablyinSeptember2014, has beenlabelledasaterroristgroupbytheU.S. un-experts-up-to-3-000-islamic-state-fighters-in-libya. 1 Player’, U.S.News, 1December 2015, http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2015/12/01/ 301 news/world-africa-27492354. 300 html. www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/04/libya-tripoli-authority-rejects-backed-government-160407041526033. world-africa-35974641; AlJazeera,‘Libya’s Tripoli AuthorityRejects UN-Backed Government’, 7April2016, http:// 299 Leaders’, 10 https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/266560.htm. January2014, 298 297 How-Gaddafis-home-city-in-Libya-fell-under-the-rule-of-Islamic-State-jihadists.html. 10 March 2015, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/11460124/ 296 reuters.com/article/2015/01/23/us-libya-security-idUSKBN0KW1MU20150123. 295 world-africa-27732589. 294 Sirte. tary turmoilinthecountry,IShadquicklygainedcontrolovercoastalcityof particularly inDernaandBenghazi.Takingadvantageofthepoliticalmili- In themeantime,groupspledgingallegiancetoISfurtheremergedasaforce, ernment, contrarytoitsearlieracceptanceofit. On 7April2016,theTripoli-basedGNCrefusedtorecognizenewUnityGov- Ansa al-ShariaisaradicalIslamistarmedgroupbasedinBenghazi. 4. Ansaral-Sharia tias, launchedacoordinatedoffensiveontheMediterraneanportcity,group’s edly defectedtotheIslamicStateofIraqandLevantinLibya. members ofthegroup,includingmajorityitsorganizationinSirte,report- new government. Army General Khalifa Haftar, a Tobruk-backed former Qaddafi loyalist, from the politicians’ linkstoSalafistmilitias,anddemandsbyGNCalliesexcludeLibyan success ofaunitygovernmentcontinuetoincludetheHoR’sconcernsaboutGNC bruk-based HoRanditsrivaltheTripoli-basedGNC.Theprincipleobstaclesto ity. TheUNhadfacilitatedaseriesoftalksinMoroccoandTunisiawiththeTo- Government wasbasedonacompromiseelaboratedbytheUNtorestorestabil- C. Re E.MLederer, ‘UNExpertsSay upto 3,000 Islamic State Fighters inLibya butExtremist Group is TRAC, ‘Ansar al-Sharia inLibya http://www.trackingterrorism.org/group/ansar-al-sharia-libya-asl. (ASL)’, BBC News, ‘Libya’s Tripoli Government to Step Down’, 5April2016 http://www.bbc.com/news/ Reuters, ‘Leader of Libyan Islamists Ansar al-Sharia Dies of Wounds’, 23 January 2015, http://www. U.S.Department of State, ‘Terrorist Designationsof Three Ansaral-Shari’a Organizations and R.SherlockandS.Tarling, ‘IslamicState: InsidetheLatest Cityto Fall UnderitsSway’, The Telegraph, F. Irshaid, ‘Profile: Libya’s Ansar al-Sharia’, BBC News, 13 June http://www.bbc.com/news/2014, BBC News, ‘Profile: Libya’s Military Strongman Khalifa Haftar’, 22April 2016, http://www.bbc.com/ cent 301 In May2016,Libya’s UN-backed government,with support of allied mili- Developments in 2016: TheAmplifica 300

298 299

The creationofthenewUnity tion of Chaos 296

Ansaral-Sharia 297 294

Thegroup Itsleader 295 many

outskirts ofSirte. Libyan fightersfightingalongsidetheUnityGovernmentpushedISbackto the issuetoUNSC. December 2014theICCissuedafindingofnon-compliancebyLibyaandreferred al-Islam Qaddafi,whichithadbeenrequestedtodotwice.Asaconsequence,on10 government failedtoupholditslegalobligationcooperateandsurrenderSaif (2011), Court (ICC)ofthesituationinLibyasince15February2011withResolution1970 Following theUNSecurityCouncil(UNSC)referraltoInternationalCriminal successful incapturingtheheadquartersofIS. On 11August2016,withthesupportofUSairstrikes,UnityGovernmentwas most significantstrongholdoutsideofSyriaandIraq. http://www.icc-cpi.int/en_menus/icc/press%20and%20media/press%20releases/Pages/pr1034.aspx. 308 307 Case Information Sheet, http://www.icc-cpi.int/iccdocs/PIDS/publications/GaddafiEng.pdf. news/2014/05/21/libya-final-icc-ruling-gaddafi. See also, The Prosecutor v. SaifAl-Islam,ICC Gaddafi 306 26 February 2011, http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/1970%20%282011%29. 305 www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-idUSKCN1130TH. 304 u-s-backed-fighters/. 10 August 2016, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/news-wrap-libyan-headquarters-isis-captured-claim- 303 www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-idUSKCN0Y21CB. 302 on thesituationofLibya,stated: In November2016,thetwelfthreportofOfficeProsecutortoUNSC the formerintelligencechiefathomeforhisallegedroleduring2011uprising. In thecaseofAbdullahSanussi,ICCjudgesapprovedLibya’sbidtoprosecute to tryQaddafidomesticallyforcrimesagainsthumanity. D . War Crimes and Prose HumanRightsWatch, ‘World Report 2015: Libya’. PBS Newshour, ‘News Wrap: Libyan Headquarters of ISISCaptured, ClaimU.S.-Backed Fighters’, Security Council Resolution 1970 (2011), UNdoc.S/RES/1970 (2011), Reuters, ‘Western Libyan Forces Prepare Attack onIslamicState Stronghold’, 11 May 2016, http:// ICC, ‘Al-Senussi Case: Appeals ChamberConfirms Case isInadmissible Before ICC’, 27 July2014, HumanRightsWatch, ‘Libya: FinalICC May Ruling onGaddafi’,21 http://www.hrw.org/ 2014, A. Lewis, A. ‘Hightoll for Libyan troops battling IslamicState inSirte’, Reuters, 29August 2016 http:// 305 security risksandwillcontinuetoworkinpartnershipwiththe LibyanPro- possible. TheOfficeisalsoconstantlylookingtomitigatethecorresponding aim ofreturningto the country to conduct in situ investigations as soon as assess thesecuritysituationinLibyathroughavarietyofsources,with in relation to both existing and possible new cases. The Office continues to precludes the Office from conducting investigations within Libyan territory The unstablesecuritysituationpersistsinLibya.Thisinstabilitycurrently on21May2014theICCissuedafinaldecisionrejectingLibya’srequest 304

307 cutions 303

In thelastweekofAugust2016, 302

306 However,theLibyan 308

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 79 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 80 African Union,theEU,andU.S.didnotrecognizeputative newstate. Briefing-War-and-peace-Mali-repeats-the-cycle. 311 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13881370. 310 iccdocs/otp/16-11-10_OTP-rep-UNSCR-1970_ENG.pdf, Security Council Pursuant to UNSCR1970 (2011)’, 9November 2016, para 13,https://www.icc-cpi.int/ 309 the independenceofAzawad,aterritoryinnorthernMali. eration ofAzawad(MNLA),anewumbrellagroupforTouareg rebels,proclaimed new weaponryfromLibya.On6April2012,theNationalMovement fortheLib- losses sufferedbyMalianarmedforcesinthefaceofTouareg, whohadreceived President AmadouToumaniToure.Thecoupcameintheaftermath ofaseries On 22March2012,amilitarycoupinthecapital,Bamako,overthrew theelected rebellions inthe1960sand1990sbyTouareg. up armsdemandinggreaterrightsfortheirpeople.Theconflictfollowedsimilar had struggledtoendtheescalatingmilitancybyTouaregnomadswhotook talks intheAlgeriancapital,Algiers.Mali,Africa’sthird-biggestgoldproducer, In July2008,theGovernmentandgroupagreedaceasefireafterfourdaysof armed groupsthenundertheumbrellaof23MayDemocraticAllianceforChange. the countrybetweenGovernmentandanumberofethnicTouaregnon-state Since May 2006, Mali has been engaged in low-intensity conflict in the north of threshold forapplicabilityofthe1977AdditionalProtocolII. and JihadinWestAfrica(MOJWA),theMNLA2014.Theconflictmet al-Qaeda intheIslamicMaghreb(AQIM),AnsarDine,MovementforOneness in Mali(MINUSMA),wasinvolvedanon-internationalarmedconflictwith Mali (AFISMA),thentheUNMultidimensionalIntegratedStabilizationMission Mali, supported by France and the African-led International Support Mission in Classification oftheconflict: 6. Mali: Ground-Breaking A of Cul . His IRIN,‘War andPeace –MaliRepeats theCycle’, 29March 2012, www.irinnews.org/Report/95186/ Unless otherwise stated, thissection isbased onBBC News, ‘Mali Country Profile’, May 21 2015, OTP, ‘Twelfth Report of theProsecutor of the International CriminalCourt to theUnited Nations t ory of the Conflict falling undertheCourt’sjurisdiction. from 2011,includingcurrentinstancesofallegedgravecriminalbehaviour fice intendstoexpandsignificantlyitsinvestigationsintocrimescommitted tant evidence.Despitethecontinuingresourcechallenges,in2017Of- been successfulincontinuingtoconductinvestigationsandcollectimpor- conduct ofinvestigativemissions.WorkingoutsideLibya,theOfficehas secutor General’s office to find a suitable solution that will permit the safe tural Proper t 310 y ICC Case on the Des 309

Among others,the truction 311

September, seeingtheIslamistscomeeverclosertoGovernment-heldterritory. cities ofGao,Kidal,andTimbuktubyJuly2012.ThetownDouentzafollowedin with AnsarDineandtheMOJWAMNLAwasexpelledfrommainnorthern ship betweenAnsarDineandtheMNLAimploded,followingfiercecombat in Timbuktu.AQIM‘endorsed’thedeal.ButbyJune,alreadystrainedrelation- declaring northern Mali an Islamic state. Ansar Dine began to impose Islamic law of hostilitiesinthenorthMalibyrebelgroups’. cally anydeclarationstothecontrary’,anddemanded‘animmediatecessation spect thesovereignty,unityandterritorialintegrityofMalirejectcategori- On 9April2012,theUNSecurityCouncilreaffirmed‘theneedtoupholdandre- un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/minusma/documents/mali%20_2100_E_.pdf. 317 316 315 afrique/20120320-nord-mali-rupture-mnla-ancar-dine-touaregs-Iyad Ag Ghali. 314 313 Press/docs/2012/sc10603.doc.htm. 312 17 January. from theAfrican-ledInternationalSupportMissioninMali(AFISMA)arrivedon armed groupsinOperationServal,deployingsome4,000troops.Thefirstforces On 11January2013,theFrenchmilitarybeganoperationsagainstIslamist planned tocomprisesome3,300militarypersonnel. and theUnitedKingdomannouncedlogisticalsupportformission,whichwas launch acoordinatedmilitaryexpeditiontorecapturethenorth.France,USA, In November2012,ECOWAS,backedbytheUNandAfricanUnion,agreedto In May2012,theMNLAandIslamistmilitantgroupAnsarDine junta opposedtheidea. regional soldierstoMaliinaneffortrestorestabilityeventhoughthemilitary Community ofWestAfricanStates(ECOWAS)decidedtosendaforce3,000 2100 inwhichit than 1,000byyear’send.On25April,theUNSecurityCounciladoptedResolution In April2013,Francebegantowithdrawsomeofitstroopsaiminghavenomore UNSecurity Council Resolution 2100, UNdoc.S/RES/2100 (2013), http://www. 25April2013, §4, AnsarDinewas founded by Touareg rebel Iyad Ag Ghaly. International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance Chapter 2014, 9: Sub-Saharan Africa. UNSecurity Council, ‘Security Council Press Statement onMali’,10 April2012, www.un.org/News/ See ‘MaliProfile’ inAnnyssa Bellal (ed) The War Report 2014, Oxford University Press, p147. RFI,‘Rupture Entre etAnsarDineauNord leMNLA duMali’, 20 March 2012, www.rfi.fr/ facilitated bytheSecretary-General. thorities ofMalitoengageexpeditiouslyinaninclusivenegotiation process, the unityandterritorialintegrityofMalianState,transitional au- dine and associated terrorist groups and who recognize, without conditions, cut offalltieswithterroristorganizationssuchasAQIM,MUJAO, AnsarEd- cease hostilitiesimmediatelyandurge[dallsuchpartiesinMaliwhohave Demand[ed] thatallrebelarmedgroupsinMaliputasidetheirarmsand 315 Combatoperationstookplacethroughoutthefirstpartof2013. 317 312 InMay2012,theEconomic 313 soughttomerge, 316 314

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 81 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 82 Attacks extendedtoneighboringcountriesin2016.OnMarch 2016,ashootingat November 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/world/africa/mali-hotel-attack-radisson.html?_r=0. 323 Peace Research Institute, 27 August 2015, https://www.sipri.org/node/385. 322 com/news/2015/05/french-special-forces-kill-al-qaeda-leader-mali-150520203048981.html. 321 news/world-africa-32327252. 320 319 318 In November 2015, 16 people were killed at the Radisson Blu Hotel in Bamako. CMA groupssignedtheaccordon20June2015. of Mali,thePlatformandtwogroupsformingpartCMA. Theremaining from the Algiers process],wasformally signed on 15 May2015 by the Government issu duprocessusd’Alger[AccordforpeaceandreconciliationinMaliemanating Platform). Thenewpeaceaccord,AccordpourlapaixetréconciliationauMali ordination ofAzawadMovements(CMA)andthePlatformarmedgroups(the groups thatwerefightingthegovernmentandagainsteachother,namelyCo- been concludedbetweentheMalianGovernmentandtwocoalitionsofarmed After alongprocessofdialogueandnegotiation,newpeaceaccordhasfinally individuals weresuspectedofkidnappingandkillingFrenchcitizens. commanders AmadaAgHamaandIbrahimInawaleninnorthernraid.Boththe On 21 May2015, it was reported that French Special Forces killed leading al-Qaeda pro-government forces. seized thetownofLereandattemptedtorecaptureMenakafrom wad MovementsnorthernrebelsclashedwithUNPeacekeepersinTimbuktuand April 2015sawanupsurgeinthelevelofviolenceasCoordinationAza- an armyclashedwithTuaregrebelsinthefirstfightingsinceJunepeaceaccord. 2013, IbrahimBoubacarKeitawonpresidentialelections.InSeptember,theMali- captured afterFrenchtroopshadforcedoutIslamistsinJanuary.InJuly–August national elections.RebelsagreedtohandoverthenortherntownofKidaltheyhad June, the Government signed a peace deal with Tuareg rebels to pave the way for In May,aninternationalconferencepledgedUS$4billiontohelprebuildMali. be transferredfromAFISMAtoMINUSMAon1July2013. The ResolutionfurtherestablishedMINUSMA,determiningthatauthoritywould vent suchviolationsandabuses’. rights orviolationsofIHLcommittedinMali‘andtocontributeeffortspre- tigate andreport’totheSecurityCouncilonanyabusesorviolationsofhuman lence, withinitscapacitiesandareasofdeployment’to‘monitor,helpinves- transitional authoritiesofMali,civiliansunderimminentthreatphysicalvio- NUSMA was to include protection, ‘without prejudice to theresponsibilityof AlJazeera, ‘French Special Forces “KillAl-Qaeda Leader May inMali”,21 2015, http://www.aljazeera. Ibid,§7. Ibid,§16(c)(i)and(d)(i). D. Searcey Nossiter, andA. ‘Deadly Siege EndsAfter Assault onHotel inMali’,The New York Times 20 , G.Nyirabikali, ‘MaliPeace Accord: Actors, Issues andTheir Representation’, Stockholm International BBC News, ‘UNBase inMaliHitby Deadly SuicideBombing’,15April2015, http://www.bbc.com/ 320 319

322 318 ThemandateofMI- 321 323

emergency tillMarch29,2017amidtsfightingstilltakingplaceinthecountry. Chinese peacekeeperandthreecivilians. Maghreb (AQIM)alsoclaimedresponsibilityforanattackthatmonthkilleda ian peacekeepers were killed in an ambush near Kidal. Al Qaeda in the Islamic MA deployeditsforcesinJuly2013. According totheUNmorethan100peacekeepershavebeenkilledsinceMINUS- formed personneltomorethan15,000. June toincreasethecontingentby2,500troops,takingtotalnumberofuni- expanding. rity, groupsaffiliatedwithal-Qaedaandtheso-calledIslamicStatewereatriskof centre and,duetoslowimplementationofthepeacedealandcontinuinginsecu- terrorism andcrimewerespreadingfromthenorthernpartofcountryto In September 2016, Malian President, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, warned the UN that a beachhotelinIvoryCoastkillednineteencivilians. military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=mali. 331 article/us-mali-un-netherlands-idUSKCN1271ZL?il=0. 330 en/2016/sc12426.doc.htm. and Robust” Mandate for United NationsMission inMali’,29June2016, https://www.un.org/press/ 329 un.org/en/peacekeeping/fatalities/documents/stats_5ajan.pdf. 328 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-mali-idUSKCN11T1N0. 327 africanews.com/2016/07/31/mali-extends-state-of-emergency-amidst-continued-fighting/. 326 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mali-violence-idUSKCN10I0U0?il=0. 325 at-resorts-in-ivory-coast.html?mtrref=undefined&gwh=4F22AE983513FC9D0765EDE6511005E8&gwt=pay. Times, 13March 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/14/world/africa/gunmen-carry-out-fatal-attacks- 324 The African-ledInternationalSupportMissioninMali(AFISMA),whichwas 2. AFISMA and 0reservepersonnelin2016. The sizeofMalianarmedforcesisestimatedtobearound7500activepersonnel 1. Malian ArmedForces AQIM, AnsarDine,MOJWAandtheMNLA. The partiestotheNIACsin2016wereMali,AFISMA,andMINUSMAagainst deadliest placeforUNpeacekeepingforces. B. P Global Firepower, ‘MaliMilitary Strength’, December 2016, http://www.globalfirepower.com/country- ar J. Irish,‘MaliLeader Warns U.N.: Qaeda, IslamicState GainingGround inCountry’, Reuters, 23September Reuter, ‘One UNPeacekeeper Killed, Four Wounded inNorthMaliMineAttack’, 7August 2016, UN Peacekeeping, ‘Fatalities by Year, Mission and Incident Type up to 31 January 2017’, http://www. Reuters, ‘Dutch to Cut Role in U.N. Peace Mission in Mali’, 7 October 2016, http://www.reuters.com/ I.Akwei, ‘MaliExtends State of Emergency Amidst Fighting”,Africa News, 31July2016, http://www. UNSecurity Council, ‘Security Council Adopts Resolution 2295 (2016), Authorizing“More Proactive L.Coulibaly andD. Searcey, Killed inTerrorist ‘16 Attack onResort Hotels inIvory Coast’, The New York ties t 327 o the Conflicts

331 328 TheUNSecurityCouncil(UNSC)votedin 329 325 Maliisnowbeingconsideredtobethe InJuly2016,Maliextendeditsstateof 330 324 InMay2016,fiveChad- 326

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 83 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 84 January 2014, www.cfr.org/north-africa/al-qaeda-islamic-maghreb-aqim/p12717.January 2014, 335 org/military/world/para/gspc.htm. 334 2100_E_.pdf. 25 April2013, §17, https://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/minusma/documents/mali%20_ 333 sc10870.doc.htm. 332 African-led force,authorizingit‘touseallnecessarymeans’ In April,theUNSCapproved12,600-strongMINUSMA’stakingoverfrom 3. MINUSMA lian capital. transferred itsauthoritytoMINUSMAinanofficialceremonyBamako,theMa- On 1July2013,inaccordancewithUNSecurityCouncilResolution2100,AFISMA number oftasks,including: respect ofthesovereignty,territorialintegrityandunityMali’tocarryouta with applicableinternationalhumanitarianlawandhumanrightsinfull riod ofoneyear,withthemandateto‘takeallnecessarymeasures,incompliance Council inResolution2085authorizeddeploymentofAFISMAforaninitialpe- eration bytheECOWASCommitteeofChiefsDefenceStaff.TheUNSecurity ECOWAS totheAfricanUnionfollowedareviewofmission’sconceptop- (ECOWAS), revertedtoanAfricanUnion(AU)mandate.Thetransitionfrom initially undertheauspicesofEconomicCommunityWestAfricanStates sassinations, andsuicidebombingsofmilitary,government civiliantargets. regimes based on Shari’a law. Its tactics include the use of guerrilla-style raids, as- ence fromNorthAfricabyoverthrowing‘unbeliever’governments, andinstalling U.S. andtheEU.AQIM’smainobjectivesincludeeradication ofWesterninflu- in northernMali. since becomeanal-Qaedaaffiliate.Inrecentmonths,AQIMexpandeditsfoothold hel. ThegroupwascreatedduringAlgeria’searlierinternalarmedconflict,andhas AQIM isaSalafi-jihadistmilitantgroupoperatinginNorthAfrica’sSaharaandSa- 4. Al-QaedaintheIslamic Maghreb (AQIM) third largestUNpeacekeepingforce. create theconditionsforprovisionofhumanitarianaid.MINUSMAisworld’s ty-related stabilizationtasks,protectcivilians,UNstaffandculturalartefacts, UNSecurity Council Resolution 2100, UNdoc.S/RES/2100 (2013) Z.LaubandJ. Masters, ‘Al-Qaeda intheIslamicMaghreb (AQIM)’, Council onForeign Relations, UNSecurity Council Resolution 2085, 20 December 2012, §9,https://www.un.org/press/en/2012/ Globalsecurity.org, ‘Al-Qaeda intheLandof theIslamicMaghreb’, June2011, www.globalsecurity. reduce theimpactofmilitaryactionuponcivilianpopulation. JWA andassociatedextremistgroups,whiletakingappropriatemeasuresto reducing thethreatposedbyterroristorganizations,includingAQIM,MU- territory underthecontrolofterrorist,extremistandarmedgroupsin To supporttheMalianauthoritiesinrecoveringareasnorthofits 334 Ithasbeendesignatedasaterroristorganizationbyboththe 333 tocarryoutsecuri- 332 335 organized crime. of extremismandterrorismcommitteditselfinthefightagainsttransnational ECOWAS intervention,thegroupissuedastatementwherebyitrejectedallforms trolled areasledthousandstoflee. world heritagesitesinTimbuktu,whiletheimpositionofShari’atheircon- Ansar Dine’smemberswereallegedlyresponsibleforthedestructionofUNESCO groups werereportedtobeoperatinginclosecollaboration. publicly distanceitselffromAQIM.However,afewmonthslater,thetworebel great concerninBamako. of Mali, was the southernmost point of the occupied territory, a fact that caused a localself-defencemilitia.Thecaptureofthetown,situatedinMoptiregion on 21March2012.On1September,thegroupseizedtownofDouentzafrom among therebelgroupsthattookcontrolofnorthernMaliaftermilitarycoup Shari’a lawinWestAfrica,namelyAlgeriaandnorthernMali.TheMOJWAwas cember 2011,therebelgroupopenlydeclareditsintenttospreadjihadandimpose emerged fromAQIMinmid-2011.Inavideoannouncingitscreationon12De- for OnenessandJihadinWestAfrica,MOJWA)isanactiveterroristgroupthat The MouvementpourleTawhîdetduJihadenAfriquedel’Ouest(Movement 6. Mouvement Pour leTawhîd etduJihadenAfrique del’Ouest (MOJWA) whole countrywithoutnecessarilychallengingtheterritorialintegrityofMali. the 1990s.UnlikeMNLA,AnsarDine’sgoalistoimposeIslamiclawover ber 2011.ThegroupwasledbyIyadAgGhaly,aleaderofTouaregrebellionsin Ansar Dine(meaning‘defendersofthereligion’inArabic)wascreatedDecem- 5. AnsarDine suborg/en/search/content/MUJAO 342 2012 http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2012/09/mil-120904-voa08.htm. 341 ameriques/20130103-nord-mali-ansar-dine-aqmi-tombouctou-azawad. 340 risme_1786631_3212.html. 2012, www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/11/06/les-islamistes-d-ansar-dine-rejettent-le-terro- 339 aqim-islamists-tuareg. 7 June2012, www.france24.com/en/20120605-mali-strange-bedfellows-mnla-ansar-dine-al-qaeda- 338 www.amnesty.org.uk/files/mali_briefing_jan_2013.pdf. 337 Africa Report 17, June2016, https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/WestAfricaReport17.pdf. 336 and militaryorganizationformedmainlybyTuaregand,toamuch smallerextent, The MovementNationaldeLibérationl’Azawad(MNLA)isaseparatistpolitical 7. National Movement fortheLiberationofAzawd(MNLA) organization associatedwithal-QaedabytheUNSecurityCouncil. A. Look, A. ‘IslamicMilitant Group inNorthernMaliExpanding Southward’, Globalsecurity.org, 4September Amnesty International UK, ‘Media Briefing — Mali Unrest 2012–2013’, January 2013, p 5, https:// L.Jacinto, ‘Strange Bedfellows: The MNLA’s On-Again, Off-Again MarriageWith AnsarDine’,France24, See also I.Maïga,Armed Groups inMali:Beyond theLabels,Institute for Security Studies West See theUnited NationsSecurity Council Al-QaidaSanctionsCommittee, https://www.un.org/sc/ RFI,‘Au Nord duMali,AnsarDineetAqmi Œuvrent MainDanslaMain’,3January2013, www.rfi.fr/ Le Monde,‘Mali:Les Islamistes d’AnsarDineAssurent Refuser le“terrorisme”’, 6November 336 339 ThisdeclarationseemedtoindicatethewillofAnsarDine 341 On5December2012,thegroupwaslistedasaterrorist 338 InNovember2012,inlightoftheplanned 340 342 337

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 85 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 86

Statute) in2000.TheICChasjurisdictionoverRomeStatute crimescommitted Mali adheredtothe1998RomeStatuteofInternationalCriminal Court(Rome tion-cultural-property/. protecting-cultural-heritage-international-criminal-courts-prosecution-destruc- Destruction ofCulturalProperty’,5November2016,http://hrbrief.org/hearings/ ‘Protecting CulturalHeritage:TheInternationalCriminalCourt’s Prosecutionof di (ICC-01/12-01/15),https://www.icc-cpi.int/mali/al-mahdi;HumanRightsBrief, reading: ICC,AlMahdiCase,TheProsecutorv.AhmadFaqiMah- Further the nine-yearsentence. and apparentwillingnesstocooperatewiththecourtseemshavecontributed leading rebelforcestothedestructionofhistoricmausoleums.Hisconfession the 2012conflictinMali.Ahmadal-Faqial-Mahdiadmittedthathissermonswere only ICCcasesofaraddressingcrimesunderinternationallawcommittedduring case wasthefirstICCtofocusondestructionofculturalpropertyand situation inMaliwasreferredtotheICCbygovernment2012.Theal-Mahdi mausoleums andmosquesinTimbuktubetween30June11July2012.The al-Faqi tonineyearsimprisonmentforintentionallydirectingattacksagainst10 In September2016,the International CriminalCourt(ICC)sentenced Ahmad founded on16October2011, Saharan and other people living in the territory situated in Northern Mali. It was www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37483967. 344 mali/mali-humanitarian-overview-30-september-2014. 343 ment ofMay2015. lian territory.MNLAispartofthepeaceprocessandhassignedAlgiersAgree- favour ofamoreautonomousadministrationtheAzawadbutstillwithinMa- has reconsidereditspoliticalclaimfortheindependenceofAzawadregionin spending ondemographicallysmallregionsandpeoples.Since2013,theMNLA ginalized them,yetsomesouthernersresentwhattheyseeasgovernments’lavish past andpresent,somenorthernMalianshavefeltthatthegovernmenthasmar- also activeandpresentintheregionsofTimbuktu,GaopartiallyMopti.In Based in Northern Mali, the MNLA had itsstrongestpresenceinKidal, but was merged withtheNationalAllianceofTouareginMali(ATNM)toformMNLA. D Proper C. La . War Crimes Alle Reliefweb, ‘Mali:Humanitarian Overview (asof 30September 2014)’, http://reliefweb.int/report/ BBC, ‘MaliIslamist BBC, Jailed for NineYears for Timbuktu Shrine Attacks’ 27 September 2016, http:// tes t t Developments in 2016:ICC Case on the Des y as a War Crime ga 344 tions, Inves 343 whentheNationalMovementofAzawad(MNA) tiga tions, and Prose truction of Cul cutions tural purpose oftheinvestigationoranyfutureselectioncharges. threshold determinationunderArticle53(1),andisthereforenotbindingforthe The OTP’sassessmentwaspreliminaryinnatureforthepurposeofsatisfying (6) rape. (5) pillaging (4) intentionallydirectingattacksagainstprotectedobjects (3) the passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without due process (2) mutilation,crueltreatment,andtorture (1) murder committed inMalisinceJanuary2012,namely: existed tobelievethatwarcrimeswithinthejurisdictionofCourthadbeen In itspreliminaryexamination,theOTPhaddeterminedthatareasonablebasis referral ofthe‘situationinMalisinceJanuary2012’byMalianGovernment. Office oftheProsecutor(OTP) had been conductingsinceJuly2012,followingthe was theresultofpreliminaryexaminationsituationinMalithat leged crimes committed in the territory of Mali since January 2012. This decision On 16January2013,theICCProsecutorformallyopenedaninvestigationintoal- national courtsareunwillingorunabletoprosecute. in theterritoryofMaliorbyitsnationalssince1November2002,caseswhere 346 345 January 2011referendumtosecede andbecomeAfrica’sfirstnewstatesinceEr- gest-running civilwar.Anoverwhelming majorityofSouthSudanesevotedina 2005 peace deal (the Comprehensive Peace Agreement) that ended Africa’s lon- South SudangainedindependencefrominJuly2011 astheoutcomeofa plicability ofthe1977AdditionalProtocolII. flict, whichbeganinmid-December2013,subsequentlymet the thresholdforap- South Sudanarmedforces(sometimescalledtheSPLM/A-in-Opposition). Thecon- Army —SPLA)wasinvolvedinanon-internationalarmedconflict withdissident In 2016,SouthSudananditsarmedforces(theformer People’sLiberation Classification oftheconflict: 7. S Mali isassignedtoPre-TrialChamberIIoftheICC. A in the Summer of 2016 . His OTP, ‘Report onPreliminary ExaminationActivities 2013’, November 2013, §230. Ibid,§231. outh Sudan:Massive Human Rights and IHL t ory of t he Conflict 346 Thesituationin Viola tions 345

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 87 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 88 ident withGeneralTabanDengGai. of people yet again. After Machar fled the country, Kiir replaced him as Vice Pres- ernment forcesandoppositionfactionsinJuly2016,displacingtensofthousands the governmentanddeclaredcollapseofAugust2015peaceagreement. 2015, http://www.hrw.org/news/2015/02/16/south-sudan-government-forces-recruiting-child-soldiers. 354 globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=south-sudan. 353 com/news/south-sudan-rebel-chief-issues-war-call-exile-155219801.html. 352 2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/28/south-sudan-vp-blames-former-rebel-leader-for-unrest/. 351 18 August 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-sudans-vice-president-flees-country-1471530128. 350 tentative-step-forward-as-former-rebel-leader-becomes-VP. Science Monitor, 26 April2016, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2016/0426/S.-Sudan-takes- 349 aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/south-sudan-expected-sign-peace-deal-rebels-150826084550000.html. 348 347 The SouthSudanarmedforceshavebeenestimatedtobe210,000strong, South SudanArmedForces by theUPDF,againstdissidentSouthSudanarmedforces. The partiestotheNIACin2016wereSouthSudananditsarmedforces,supported side ofthecountry. 2016 andwassworninasVicePresident,afterspendingmorethantwoyearsout- As thefirststeptowardendingcivilwar,MacharreturnedtoJubaon26April itrea split from Ethiopia in 1993. President RiekMacharonAugust26,2015. President SalvaKiirsignedapeaceagreementwithrebelleaderandformerVice tiations supported by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Under thethreatofinternationalsanctionsandfollowingseveralroundsnego- The situationhasremainedhighlyunstableallthefollowingyears. continued toconstituteathreatinternationalpeaceandsecurityintheregion. UN SecurityCouncil(UNSC)determinedthatthesituationfacedbySouthSudan young as13-years-old. has beenallegedthatGovernmentforcesareactivelyrecruitingchildsoldiersas since thesplitinSPLAsizeofeffectivefightingforceisnotknown.It for theunrest. B. P S.O’Grady, ‘SouthSudanVPBlamesFormer Rebel Leader for Unrest’, Foreign Policy, 28September ar Global Firepower, ‘SouthSudan Military Strength’, last updated on 20 December 2016, http://www. AFP, ‘SouthSudanRebel ChiefIssues War CallFrom Exile’,25September 2016, https://www.yahoo. BBC News, ‘SouthSudanCountry Profile’, www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14069082. 23April2014, HumanRightsWatch, ‘South Sudan:Governement Forces Recruiting ChildSoldiers’, 16February N.Bariyo andM.Stevis, ‘SouthSudan’sFormer Vice President Flees Country’, The Wall Street Journal, AlJazeera, ‘SouthSudanPresident SignsPeace Deal With Rebels’, 27 August 2015, http://www. J. Lynch, ‘SouthSudanTakes Tentative Step Forward asFormer Rebel Leader Becomes VP’,The Christian ties t o the Conflict 351

On26September2016,Machercalledforrenewedwaragainst 349

354 Soon afterhisreturn,violencebrokeoutagainbetweengov- 347 In adopting Resolution 1996 on 8 July 2011, the 350

Taban blamedtheformerVicePresident 348 353 though

352

Force. South SudangovernmentrejectedthedeploymentofRegionalProtection inate attacks. widespread sexualviolenceandrapebygovernmentforces,looting,indiscrim- agreement collapsed.Theclashesincludedcontinuingethnicviolence,reportsof Following the outbreak of fiercefighting in Juba in July 2016, theAugust2015peace around 10.000. proportion ofdefectionswasroughlysimilartotheSPLA,theymayamount an unknownnumberofpoliceforceshavealsojoinedtheopposition,andif nized forces;estimatessuggestthenumbertobearound35.000fighters.Moreover, known. AlargenumberofsoldiershavedefectedfromtheSPLAandotherorga- The sizeofthedissidentSouthSudanarmedforces(SPLM/A-in-Opposition)isnot Dissident SouthSudanArmedForces http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37840961. 361 south-sudan-rebels-raped-aid-workers-report. 6 October 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/06/un-peacekeepers-refused-to-help- 360 http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61351. 359 undocs.org/S/RES/2304%282016%29. 358 article/237fa4c447d74698804be210512c3ed1/rampaging-south-sudan-troops-raped-foreigners-killed-local 357 hrw.org/news/2016/08/15/south-sudan-killings-rapes-looting-juba. 356 SPLM-IO-May-2014.pdf. http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/fileadmin/docs/facts-figures/south-sudan/HSBA-1 April2014, 355 workers duringtheJulyattackinJubabygovernmentsoldiers. An investigationfound that international troops failedto protect civilians and aid essary meanstoimplementitsmandateofsecuringJuba. ployment oftheRegionalProtectionForcewitharobustmandatetouseallnec- On 12August2016,SecurityCouncilResolution2304(2016)authorizedthede- a four-hourfrenzythroughresidentialdistrictpopularwithforeigners. raped, beaten,androbbedaftertroopsallegedlyloyaltoPresidentSalvaKiirwenton who wastheSouthSudanPeacekeepingCommander. UN Secretary-General,BanKi-moon,removedfromhisposttheKenyangeneral tions in the Summer of 2016 C. Re AP, Rampaging SouthSudantroops raped foreigners, killed local, 15August 2016, http://bigstory.ap.org/ BBC News, ‘UNSacksSouthSudanPeacekeeping ChiefOver DamningReport’, 1November 2016, HumanSecurity Baseline Assessment (HSBA) for SudanandSouthSudan,‘The SPLM- In-Opposition’, UNSecurity Council Resolution 2304(2016), UN doc.S/RES/2304 (2016), 12August 2016, http:// SudanTribune, ‘SouthSudanRenews Rejection to Regional Protection Force’, 11 January2017, HumanRightsWatch, ‘SouthSudan:Killings,Rapes,Looting inJuba’, 15August 2016, https://www. J. Burke, ‘UNPeacekeeper Refused to HelpasAidWorkers Were Raped inSouthSudan’,The Guardian , cent 359 Developments in 2016:Massive Human Rights and IHL 356 355 InSouthSudan’scapitalofJuba,severalforeignaidworkerswere 361 Soonafterthisdecision, 358 InJanuary2017,the 360 Asaresult,the Viola- 357

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 89 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 90

lence, leadingtowarningsthatthesituationmayescalateintogenocide. Since the July 2016 clashes, there has beenanincreasein incitement to ethnic vio- theless, theUNSCfailedtoadoptanarmsembargoon23December2016. 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17988453. 366 24 October 2016, https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/afr65/5028/2016/en/. 365 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-security-un-idUSKBN14C1KY. 364 November 2016, http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55538#.WKdxchDJrXM. 363 www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/kenya-withdraws-troops-mission-south-sudan-161102165506898.html 362 The Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), formed in 1978, waged a guerrilla war for Kurdish other halfliveintheimpoverishedsoutheast,wheretheyare theethnicmajority. of itsKurdishpopulationlivesincitiesthewesternpart thecountryand The Kurdish minority represents 15% of Turkey’s 73 million people. Around half country andtheKurdistanregionofIraqin2016. al armedconflictwiththeKurdishWorkers’Party(PKK)insoutheastof Turkey anditsarmedsecurityforceswereinvolvedinanon-internation- Classification oftheconflict: 8. Turkey in 2016: Gro weapons, andestablishaneffectivemechanismtomonitorcompliance. to imposeanarmsembargoonSouthSudan,withtheaimofstoppingflow ed thattheseattacksbygovernmentforceswerefurtherproofoftheurgentneed raping womenandgirls,lootingpropertyinJuly2016Juba.Thereportadd- Sudanese governmentforceswereresponsiblefordeliberatelykillingcivilians, In areportissuedinOctober2016,AmnestyInternationalclaimedthattheSouth unless thesituationisreferredtoCourtbyUNSC. war crimesallegedtohavebeencommittedbyastate’snationalsoronitsterritory International CriminalCourt(ICC).TheICCmaynotexercisejurisdictionover South Sudanisneitherapartynorsignatorytothe1998RomeStatuteof Kenya announced withdrawalof its troops from the UN mission in South Sudan. A D . War Crimes Alle . His AlJazeera, ‘Kenya Withdraws Troops From UNMission inSouthSudan’, 3 November 2016, athttp:// UNNews Centre, ‘Riskof “Outright EthnicWar” andGenocideinSouthSudan,UNEnvoy Warns’, 11 Amnesty International, ‘We DidNot Believe we Would Survive’: Killings,RapendLootings inJuba, Unless otherwise stated, thissection isbased onBBC News, ‘Turkey Country Profile’, 10 August M.Nichols,‘articleCouncil Fails to Impose ArmsEmbargo onSouthSudan’,Reuters, 23December t ory of t he Conflict ga tions, Inves 366 wing tiga Ins tions, and Prose t abilit y in the Country cutions 365 363 364 None- 362

cemen. Islamic Stategroupfortheattack,PKKattackedandkilledtwoTurkishpoli- mid-August. in bothTurkeyandnorthernIraq,claimingtohavekilled390PKKmilitantsby in theTurkish-SyrianbordertownSuruç. between thePKKandTurkisharmedsecurityforcesfollowingasuicideattack Turkish governmentbrokedowninJuly2015whenrenewedfightingout The 2013ceasefireagreementbetweentheKurdistanWorker’sPartyPKKand its ceasefireafter15Octoberasithadthreatened. the peaceprocesswaslookingincreasinglyfragile,althoughPKKdidnotend early May. Murat Karayilan,saidthatPKK fighters wouldbegintowithdrawfromTurkeyin 2013, effectively ending the insurgency. In April, the military leader of the PKK, his fighterstostopattackingTurkeyandwithdrawfromthecountryMay ern mountainousareaalongtheborderwithIraq. also launched periodic air strikes and ground assaults on PKK camps in the north- took placeinsouth-easternTurkey,butsince1992theTurkishGovernmenthas in Turkey created at least 500,000 internally displaced. Military operations mostly their languageinschools.AGovernmentcampaigntodepopulatepro-PKKvillages improvement ofrightsforKurdishpeopleinTurkey,includingtherighttoteach its goalfromanindependent Kurdish statetoseekinggreaterautonomyandan independence insouth-easternTurkeyfrom1984.Inthe1990s,PKKshifted com/news/world-europe-35829231. 373 www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/turkey-pkk-ceasefire-puts-hdp-tough-spot-150806110231827.html. 372 www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33667427. 371 com/2015/07/20/turkey-death-toll-climbs-in-suruc-attack. 370 369 2013/03/2013320652845642.html. 368 September 2012, https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/219-turkey-the-pkk-and-a-kurdish-settlement.pdf. 367 PKK —andkilledmorethan100people. ber 2015.ItwasclaimedbyTAK(KurdistanFreedomHawks) — anoffshootofthe One ofthedeadliestattacksinTurkeyoccurredatapeacerallyAnkaraOcto- at disarmingrebels. with PKK’s leader Öcalan, initiating the so-called ‘İmrali Process’, aiming, In December2012,theTurkishStatedeclareditswilltostartclosednegotiations launching majorattacksinurbanareasaswellsettingupcheckpointsonroads. and diversifieditsinsurgencyinthesoutheasttakingcampaigntoanewlevelby BBC News, ‘Turkey Car Bomb Kills Two Soldiers as PKK Truce Breaks Down’, 26 July 2015, http:// International CrisisGroup, Turkey, thePKKandKurdish Settlement,Europe 11 Report No., 219 BBC News, ‘Ankara Blast: Kurdish Group TAK Claims Bombing’, 17 March 2016, http://www.bbc. L.Kafanov, ‘Endof Turkey–PKK Ceasefire PutsHDPinTough Spot’, AlJazeera, 10 August 2015, http:// Euronews, ‘Turkey: Death Toll Climbsin SurucAttack’, 20 July2015, http://www.euronews. BBC News, ‘Turkey Profile: Timeline’, 25April2013, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17994865. AlJazeera, ‘Timeline: PKKConflict withTurkey’, March 21 2013, www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/

371 Asaresponse,thegovernmentlaunchedairstrikesagainstPKKtargets 369

372 Occasionalceasefireviolationsoccurredsubsequently.InOctober, 368 Aftermonthsoftalks,inMarchAbdullahÖcalanordered 373 370 Whilethegovernmentblamed 367 In2012,thePKKsteppedup inter alia,

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 91 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 92 2. TheKurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) 381 www.cfr.org/turkey/inside-kurdistan-workers-party-pkk/p14576. 380 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20971100. 379 english.pravda.ru/world/asia/31-01-2012/120376-turkey_defense_power-0/. 378 377 blog.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/2016/07/20/turkey-s-pkk-conflict-the-rising-toll/. 376 11 February 2016, http://www.romandie.com/news/675622.rom. 375 pkk-kurdistan-diyarbakir-erdogan. 20 December 2015, http://www.france24.com/fr/20151220-turquie-militants-kurdes-tues-operation-anti- 374 Kurdish state,callinginsteadformoreautonomytheKurds. In the1990s,organisationbackeddownonitsdemandsforanindependent country. of Turkey,andhundredsthousandsKurdsfledtocitiesinotherpartsthe thousands ofvillagesweredestroyedinthelargelyKurdishsouth-eastandeast ic officesinEurope.Duringtheconflict,whichreachedapeakmid-1990s, nappings offoreigntourists,suicidebombings,andattacksonTurkishdiplomat- Government in1984.Thegrouphasreliedonguerrillawarfare,includingkid- ish statewithinTurkey,thePKKlaunchedanarmedstruggleagainstTurkish Öcalan andafewco-conspirators.WiththeaimofcreatinganindependentKurd- The group,whichhasMarxist-Leninistroots,wasformedin1978byAbdullah ists. The Turkisharmedforceshavebeenestimatedtobe410,500strong,with185,630reserv- 1. Turkish ArmedForces The partiestotheNIACin2016areTurkeyanditsarmedforcesagainstPKK. two soldiersandfivecivilianswerekilled. around thetownsofCizreandSilopi.Afterfivedaysfighting,102PKKrebels, On 15December2015,theTurkisharmylaunchedamajoroffensiveconcentrated the armedgroupremainshighlyorganizedandwell-financed entity,withseveral 2016 aftertheTurkishauthoritiestookcontrolofCizre. spike fromAugust2015onwards. at least2,481peoplehavebeenkilledinclashessince20July2015,withanotable Violence continuedthroughout2016.AccordingtotheInternationalCrisisGroup, B. P 377 P. O’Toole, ‘Profile: The PKK’, BBC News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7044760.stm. Global Firepower, ‘Turkey Military Strength’, last updated on17February 2017. Romandie, ‘Turquie: FindesOpérations Militaires Contre lePKKDansBastion Kurde deCizre’, ar France 24, ‘Turquie —UneCentaine deMilitants Kurdes Tués Lors UneOpération Anti-PKK’, Y. Mavashev, ‘Turkey’s Defense Power Grows atPace to beEnvied’, Pravda.Ru, 31January2012, B. Mandiraci, ‘Turkey’s PKK Conflict: The Death Toll’, International Crisis Group, 20 July 2016, http:// See also BBC News, ‘Who are theKurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)Rebels ?’,4November 2016, G.Bruno, InsidetheKurdistan Workers Party (PKK) , Council onForeign Relations, 19 October 2007, TheTurkisharmyissaidtobethelargestinsizeafterU.S.withinNATO. ties t 380 o the c onflict 376

379 374 TheoperationsceasedinFebruary 375

381 Nonetheless, 378

tion ofpeacetalkswiththeTurkishgovernmentinSeptember2016. since April2015,thePKK’sjailedleader,AbdullahOcalan,calledforresump- and is reportedly targeting the Kurdish minority. the city of Manbij. Syria, includingagainsttheKurdishYPG(People’sProtectionForces)locationsin lar president. the country,andparticularlymilitary,disenchantedbyruleofanunpopu- In July2016,anattemptedmilitarycoupappearedtoreflectgrowinguneasein Turkey, theEUandU.S. The PKKislistedasaterroristorganizationbynumerousgovernments,including port networksinEurope. Turkey. ThePKKestablishedbasesinIran,Iraq,andSyria,hasdeep-rootedsup- thousand menandwomenunderarmsmillionsofKurdishsympathizersin statement-almost-two-years-496070383. Eye, 12September 2016, http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/jailed-pkk-leader-calls-negotiation-first- 389 government-crackdown-widens/2016/10/09/6be368f8-8a82-11e6-8cdc-4fbb1973b506_story.html. Post 388 com/a/turkey-attempted-coup-crowds-cheer-erdogan/3420312.html 387 com/news/2016/08/turkish-military-strikes-ypg-isil-targets-syria-160822174350790.html. 386 www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/16/how-recep-tayyip-erdogan-inflamed-tensions-in-turkey. 385 384 383 382 Turkey isnotpartytothe1998RomeStatuteofInternationalCriminalCourt. down onsuspectedcoupconspiratorsandarrestedanestimated32,000people and jailedfortreason. PKK sufferedamajorblowin1999whenitsleader,AbdullahÖcalan,wasarrested Turkish militaryofsupportingthePKK,butpartydeniesaccusations.The D C. Key Developments in 2016: Gro . War Crimes Alle , 10 October 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/turkeys-kurds-are-in-the-crosshairs-as- E.Cunningham, ‘Turkey’s Kurds are inthe Crosshairs asGovernment Crackdown Widens’ The Washington VOA, ‘6,000 Detained inTurkey After Failed Coup Attempt’, 17July2016, http://www.voanews. G.Bruno, InsidetheKurdistan Workers Party (PKK). I. Black, ‘Attempted Coup Reflects Growing Tension in Turkey’, International CrisisGroup, Turkey, thePKKandKurdish Settlement,p7. A. MacDonald,‘PKKLeader A. Callsfor Peace Talks inFirst Statement for Two Years’, MiddleEast AlJazeera, ‘Turkish Military Strikes ISILinNorthernSyria’, 23August 2016, http://www.aljazeera. O’Toole, ‘Profile: The PKK’. 385 On22August,Turkeylaunchedartilleryattacksagainsttargetsin 386 Following the July coup attempt, President Erdogan cracked ga 384 tions, Inves 382 383 TheIraqiKurdishpartyhasbeenaccusedbythe wing tiga tions, and Prose Ins t abilit 388 In his first public statement The Guardian, 16 July 2016, https:// y in the Country cutions 389 387

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 93 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 94 exercised byRussiaonthearmedgroupswerealsoraised. alized. case-law conditions it haveenoughinformationtoattestalevelofcontrolsufficientmeettheICTY a positiontoverifytheveracityoftheseallegationsandfactsonground,nordoes 395 Ukraine’, 28August http://ilg2.org/2014/08/28/trying-to-classify-the-conflict-in-eastern-ukraine/. 2014, 394 Tadić, para 137. instruction by the controlling State concerning thecommission of each of those acts’, ICTY, Prosecutor v. group ormembersthereof may beregarded asactsof defacto State organs regardless of any specific financing, training andequipping orproviding operational supportto thatgroup. Acts performed by the has arole inorganising, coordinating orplanningthemilitary actionsof themilitary group, inadditionto law may bedeemed to exist whenaState (or, inthecontext of anarmed conflict, theParty to theconflict) provision of financial assistance or military equipment or training). … The control required by international or militiasparamilitary unitsmay beof anoverall character (andmust comprise more than themere 393 conflict.html. The New York Times, 27 August http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/29/world/europe/ukraine- 2014, 392 accident/articleshow/40912541.cms. indiatimes.com/World/Europe/Russian-military-sources-say-soldiers-crossed-Ukraine-border-by- Military Sources Say Soldiers Crossed Ukraine Border “by Accident”, 26 August http://timesofindia. 2014, of-russian-troop-deployments-follow-capture-of-soldiers-in-donetsk-30945; of SoldiersinDonetsk’,The Conversation, 27 August https://theconversation.com/further-claims- 2014, novoazovsk-crimea.html?_r=2; Swain, A. ‘FurtherClaimsof Russian Troop Deployments Follow Capture York Times, 27 August http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia- 2014, 391 contribution to thisprofile. 390 conflict withRussia(seebelow). That beingsaid,the War Report arguestheremightbeaparallelinternationalarmed well astheirparticipationincombatoperations. There havebeenallegationsofthepresenceRussianarmedgroupsinUkraine,as meets thethresholdforapplicabilityof1977AdditionalProtocolII. lic’ andthe‘LuhanskPeople’sRepublic’,ineastofcountry.Theconflict aratist armed groups, which proclaimed themselves ‘the Donetsk People’s Repub- armed forces of theGovernmentUkrainewere fighting against pro-Russian sep- Ukraine wasinvolvedinanon-internationalarmedconflict2016whichthe Classification oftheconflict: 9. tionhas exercisedoverallcontroloverarmedgroupsineasternUkraine.’ tional incharacter,theOfficeisalsoexaminingallegationsthatRussianFedera- whether theotherwisenon-internationalarmedconflictcouldbeactuallyinterna- With Russia? Uk See A.E. Kramer See A.E. andM.R.Gordon, ‘Ukraine Reports Russian Invasion onaNew Front’, The New The Appeals ICTY JudgmentinTadić stated: ‘[C]ontrol by aState over subordinate armed forces OTP, ‘Report onPreliminary Examination Activities 2016’, para 170. See also thediscussion by N.Quenivet ontheblogIntLawGrrls, ‘Trying to Classify theConflict inEastern See N.MacFarquhar andM.R.Gordon, ‘Ukraine Leader Says “HugeLoads of Arms” Pour inFrom Russia’, We thankMsKvitoslava Krotiuk (LLMcandidate, Geneva Academy 2016-2017) for herinsightful 394 raine: raine: InitsNovemberreport,theOPTstatedthat‘forpurposeofdetermining A P 390 393 arallel Interna toconcludethattheconflictinUkrainehasbeeninternation- tional Armed Conflict 391 Questionsonthelevelofcontrol 392

The WarThe Report isnotin The Times of India, ‘Russian 395

restrict freedomofspeech, government on 16 January 2015, which also amended the Criminal Code so as to pressure, aswellofbeingcorruptandunaccountable. to protestagainstsuchdecision,accusingthegovernmentofbowingRussian EU, tensofthousandspeopletooktothestreetscentralKievandothercities sudden decision to abandon the plans to sign an association agreement with the lowering ofRussiangasprice. a $15mnaidpackagetohelpfalteringUkraine’seconomy,whichincludedthe Consequently, on18December2013,Russiaannouncedtheimplementationof to integratefurtherwiththeEU. standards, which,however,wasseenasanactofretaliationforUkraine’sefforts Ukraine’s mainconfectionarymakers,claimingthatitsproductsfellbelowsafety Tensions inUkrainebegan2013,afterRussiahaltedimportsfromoneof bbc.com/news/world-europe-26320004. 403 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25923199.January 2014, scraps-anti-protest-laws. See also BBC News, ‘Ukraine Crisis: Parliament AbolishesAnti-Protest Law’, 28 The Guardian, 27 January http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/27/ukraine-president-2014, 402 deal-with-opposition-after-77-killed-in-kiev. February http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/21/ukraine-crisis-president-claims- 2014, 21 401 com/news/world-europe-25771595. 400 bbc.com/news/world-europe-25923199. 399 12 August 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25182823. bbc.com/news/world-europe-25162563. See also BBC News, ‘Ukraine Crisis: What’s GoingoninCrimea?’, 398 b0d0-00144feab7de.html#axzz3ZkT4mdnD. Economic Squeeze onUkraine’, 20 March http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7ecbb1c4-b027-11e3- 2014, europes-east/russia-hits-ukraine-chocolate-wa-news-529804. See also The FinancialTimes, ‘Russia Puts 397 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18018002. 396 dent andissuedanarrestwarrantforYanukovych. parliament electedtheoppositionleaderOlexanderTurchynovasinterimpresi- ary, President Yanukovych fled the capital to Russia. As a result, the next day the ernment andholdnewelectionunderaEU-mediateddeal.However,on22Febru- 2014, PresidentYanukovych and theoppositiongroupagreedto form a newgov- Following furtherclasheswithanti-governmentprotesters,onthe21February security forceskilledatleast77protestersinKiev. law fortheprotesters. ment firstoverturnedthe16Januaryanti-protestlawand,then,passedanamnesty 2014 thegovernmentresignedinanattempttoresolvecrisiswhileparlia- A . His Euractiv, ‘Russia HitsatUkraine With Chocolate War’, 14August 2013, http://www.euractiv.com/ S. Malik, A. GaniandT. S.Malik,A. MacCarthy, ‘Ukraine Crisis:Deal Signed inEffort To The EndKiev Standoff’, Guardian, BBC News, ‘Ukraine Protests After Yanukovych EU Deal Rejection’, 30November 2013, http://www. BBC News, ‘Ukraine Crisis:Parliament AbolishesAnti-Protest Law’, http://www. 28January2014, Unless otherwise stated, thissection isbased BBC News, ‘Ukraine Country Profile’, 3February 2017, BBC News, ‘Ukraine Arrest Warrant for Fugitive Viktor Yanukovych’, 24 February http://www. 2014, O. Grytsenko, ‘Ukraine President Makes Concession to Protesters by Scrapping Anti-Protest Law’, BBC News, ‘Ukraine’s President SignsAnti-Protest BillInto Law’, http://www.bbc. 17January2014, t ory of the Conflict 402 400 violenceescalatedandinFebruary2014membersof 396 399 397 Despitethenewanti-protestlawspassedby On21November2013,afterthegovernment’s 401 403 Fewdayslater,on28January 398

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 95 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 96 open intheDonetskandLuhanskregions. 55% ofthevotes,althoughpro-Russianseparatistspreventedpollingstationstobe election ofthepro-westernPetroPoroshenkoaspresident,whogotmorethan Presidential electionswereheldinUkraineon25May2014,whichresultedthe ple’s Republics’,thosewerenotrecognizedbyKievortheWestcountries. the separatistsannouncedthat90%ofpeoplehadvotedinfavour‘Peo- York Times, 25May http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/26/world/europe/ukraine-elections.html?_r=0. 2014, 409 2014/05/12/135ceba9-824c-486d-98e1-e1aa49627fa3_story.html. europe/separatists-claim-victory-in-eastern-ukraine-kremlin-calls-for-talks-with-kiev-government/ of All-Out CivilWar Mount’, The Washington Post , 12May http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ 2014, 408 en/world/729883. 407 acting-president. 30 April http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/30/ukraine-government-lost-control-east-2014, 406 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu.17 April2014, 405 bbc.com/news/world-europe-26984799. 404 dependence as“People’sRepublics”afterthereferendumswereheld. On 11May2014,pro-RussianseparatistsinDonetskandLuhanskdeclaredtheir- ern Ukraine. Minister ShoigusaidRussiahadnoplanstoinvadeUkraineorinterveneinEast- national concernsthatanotherannexationcouldtakeplace,theRussianDefence Although abuild-upofRussiantroopsonthesharedborderinAprilsparkedinter- government wasnolongerincontrolofDonetskandLuhansk. On 29April,andthenextday,actingPresidentTurchynovannouncedthat Pro-Russian separatistsseizedtheregionalgovernmentheadquartersinLuhansk powers totheeasternregions. Russia. Inresponse,theinterimPrimeMinisterYatsenyukofferedtodevolvemore and Kharkiv, demanding a referendum for greater autonomy and therightto join pro-Russian separatistsoccupiedgovernmentalbuildingsinDonetsk,Luhansk ing todeadlyclasheswithUkrainianarmedforces.DuringthemonthofApril, aratists seizedcontrolofoveradozentownsandcitiesinEasternUkrainelead- After theannexationofCrimeabyRussiaon21March2014,pro-Russiansep- mental buildingsrefusedtoleave. crisis, which,however,quicklybrokedownaftertheseparatistsoccupyinggovern- to reachanagreementonthenecessarystepsbetakende-escalateongoing On 17April2014,theU.S.,Russia,EUandUkrainegatheredinGenevaorder J. Borger Luhn, ‘Ukraine andA. Crisis:Geneva Talks Produce Agreement onDefusingConflict’, ‘Russian Defense Minister Reassures USColleague onUkraine’, TASS, http://tass.ru/ 29April2014, D.M. Herszenhorn, ‘Pro-European Businessman ClaimsVictory inUkraine Presidential Vote’, The New S.Denyer, M.Birbaum andF. Kunkle, ‘As Ukrainian Separatists Claim Victory inSelf-Rule Vote, Fears L.Harding, ‘Ukraine’s Government HasLost Control of East, Says Acting President’, The Guardian, BBC News, ‘Ukraine Leader Yatsenyuk Offers Powers to Troubled East’, 11 http://www. April2014, 407 404

405 409

406 408 The Guardian, Although

EU andU.S.announcedfurthersanctions,includingeconomiconesinlateJuly. rebels deniedanyinvolvementintheaccident,pressureincreasedonRussiaas the border. cording toNATO,therewereover1,000RussiantroopsinUkraineand20,000near stepped uptosupporttherebelsbydeployingRussiantroopsinsideUkraine.Ac- Ukrainian armyattemptedtoencircleDonetskandLuhansk.Reportedly,Russia Violence escalatedbetweengovernmentforcesandpro-Russianrebelsasthe rights. der, proposedtoheldearlyelections,decentralisationandfullRussianlanguage of ‘seriouscrimes’fordisarmedrebels;hecalledabufferzonealongthebor- and offeredasafetycorridortoRussiafreedomfromprosecutioninabsence clared aweek-longceasefire.ThePresidentdemandedtherebel’sdisarmament On 20June2014,PresidentPoroshenkoannounceda15-pointpeaceplanandde- 15 September http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/16/world/europe/ukraine-conflict.html. 2014, 414 www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-ukraine-crisis-nato-idUSKBN0GS1D220140828. Croft, ‘More Than 1,000 Russian Troops Operating inUkraine: NATO’, Reuters, 28August http:// 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8275bec4-2ea2-11e4-afe4-00144feabdc0.html#slide0. See also A. 413 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/29/us-ukraine-crisis-east-idUSKBN0FY0OX20140729.2014, 412 Gibney, ‘The Downing of MH17:Russian Responsibility’, 15 Human RightsLaw Review (2015), pp169-178. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28520813; onsome of thelegal aspects of theattack, see M. ukraine-live. See also BBC News, ‘Downing of MH17jetinUkraine “may bewar crime”–UN’,28July2014, Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/17/malaysia-airlines-plane-crashes- 17July2014, 411 bbc.com/news/world-europe-27937596. 410 tion ofindependence. away regions,whichraisedtheconcernthatitcouldamounttoadefactorecogni- parliament passedalawallowingcertaindegreeofself-governmenttothebreak- After havingagreedaceasefirewiththerebels,on16September2014Ukrainian 11 surface-to-airmissile,killingall298passengerson board. the villageofGrabove,overDonetskregion,reportedlybyRussian-madeSA- On 17July2014,MalaysiaAirlinesflightMH17fromAmsterdamisshotdownnear was laterratifiedon16September2014. On 27June,thegovernmentsignedAssociationAgreementwithEU,which ern Ukrainelaterinthemonth. H. Davidson Yuhas, andA. ‘Malaysia Airlines Plane MH17“Shot down” in Ukraine — as it Happened’, The J. Pawlak andE.Beech, ‘EU andU.S.Announce New SanctionsonRussia Over Ukraine’, Reuters, 29July N.MacFarquhar Gall,‘Kiev Offers andC. “Special Status” for Breakaway Regions’, The New York Times, BBC News, ‘Ukraine Crisis: Details of Poroshenko’s Peace Plan Emerge’, 20 June http://www.2014, Financial Times, ‘Russia Has“Well Over 1,000 Troops” inUkraine, Nato Warns’, 29August 2014, 410 TheceasefirebrokewhenamilitaryhelicopterwasshotdownoverEast- 413 414 411 Whilepro-Russian 412

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 97 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 98 Russia topullbackitsforces. tering Ukrainian territory in early November and NATO Chief Stoltenbergurged NATO CommanderdeclaredthatRussianmilitaryequipmenthadbeenseenen- netsk province. leader AlexanderZakharchenkoannouncedaplantotakecontroloftheentireDo- as wellofprovidingweaponsandmilitarytrainingforseparatistsinRussia. 421 plan-to-take-over-all-donetsk-region.html. January 2015, http://www.unian.info/war/1035430-zaharchenko-threatens-full-scale-war-says-militants- 420 bbc.com/news/world-europe-30878406. 419 html#ixzz3ZqfN7FkX. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-2887762/New-Russian-military-doctrine-says-NATO-threat. 418 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/02/russia-elections-ukraine-donetsk-lugansk.2014, 417 com/news/europe/2014/11/nato-russian-troops-ukraine-now-2014111214105962679.html. 416 827b-2d813561bdfd_story.html. ukraines-parliamentary-elections-show-win-for-pro-western-blocs/2014/10/26/e5ac0484-5d1a-11e4- The Washington Post, 26 October http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/exit-polls-in- 2014, 415 withdrawals andprisonerexchanges. and that a ceasefire would begin on 15 February. The deal also included weapons ny andFranceannouncethatanagreementhadbeenreachedtoendthefighting On 12February2015afterpeacetalkstookplaceinMinsk,Russia,Ukraine,Germa- tary casualtiesandfurtherunderminingthepeacetalks. around Donetsk,aswellinLuhanskregionresultingheavycivilianandmili- Beginning of2015,fightingbetweenthearmyandrebelsintensifiedin hostile governmentsinneighbouringcountries. tary doctrinestatingthatthecountryfacedthreatsfromforeignnationsinstalling On 26December2014,RussianPresidentPutinimplementedanewmili- election’s outcome. and Western states said the polls were illegitimate, Russia declared it respected the and Luhansk,whichresultedinthevictoryoftwopro-Russianleaders.WhileKiev elections fortheheadofstateself-proclaimedPeople’sRepublicsinDonetsk Meanwhile, on2November2014separatistsinEasternUkraineheldtheirown was elected, although thepolls were oncemoreboycotted by therebelsinEast. On 26October2014Parliamentaryelectionswereheldandanewpro-EUparliament www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/12/ukraine-crisis-reports-emerge-of-agreement-in-minsk-talks. 422 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/20/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0LO13420150220.

AFP, ‘Pro-Russia Separatists Hold Leadership Elections In Two Ukraine Enclaves’, M.Birnbaum, ‘ExitPolls inUkraine’s Parliamentary Elections Show Win for Pro-Western Blocs’, A. Zverev A. Prentice, and A. ‘Kiev Accuses Russia of Sending More Tanks to East Ukraine’, Reuters, 20 February AP, ‘New Russian Military DoctrineSays NATO Top Threat’, The, 26 DailyMail December 2014, BBC News, ‘Ukraine Conflict: BattlesRageinDonetskandLuhansk’, 19January2015, http://www. AlJazeera, ‘NATO: Russia SendingForces Into Ukraine’, 12November http://www.aljazeera. 2014, M.Weaver Luhn, ‘Ukraine andA. Ceasefire Agreed atBelarusTalks’, The Guardian , 12February 2015, http:// UNIAN, ‘Zakharchenko Threatens Full-Scale War, Says Militants Plan to Take Over All Donetsk Region’, 23 420 Accordingly,KievaccusedRussiaofsendingtroopsintoUkraine 417 416 422 Thepro-RussianrebelsineasternUkraine 418 419 OnJanuary,theseparatist The Guardian, 2 November 421 415

reassurance forceinRomania. troops readytomove.Inthesouth,NATOhasannouncedplanssetupasimilar ficially the‘VeryHighReadinessJointTaskForce’—whichnumbersabout5,000 to deteranyRussianadventurism.Theyarebackedupbya‘SpearheadForce’—of- the threesmallBalticstatesofEstonia,LatviaandLithuania,actingasatripwire ada have also agreed to stand up. The troops will rotate through Poland as well as mit 650troopstoaseparatebattalion,andfellowNATOalliesGermanyCan- states fearfulofamoreassertiveRussia.Aweekbefore,Britainhadagreedtocom- as partofbroaderNATOeffortstoreassureformerCommunisteasternmember In earlyJuly2016,theU.S.announcedthatitwoulddeploy1,000troopstoPoland violence andciviliancasualties. lation of ceasefire in theeastern Ukraine and the summer of 2016 saw a spike in 2014, shelling and skirmishes occur regularly. There has been a continuous vio- Although theconflicthastransitionedtoastalemateafteritfirsteruptedinearly elsewhere includingtheissuesofterrorism,armscontrolandsolution forSyria. tion betweentheU.S. and Russiabuthasalsohamperedtheprospectsofcooperation its intentionselsewhereinEasternEurope.Theconflicthasnotonlytensedtherela- Russia’s actionsofincursionintoaNATOcountryhaveraisedseriousconcernabout However, despitetheceasefire,heavyfightingcontinuedaroundDebaltseve. minimum of50kmbetweenrivalforces’artillery(140kmforrockets). also signedtheagreement,whichincludedabufferzoneforheavyweapons,with and hardware, September 21 2016’ (available inRussian) at:http://www.osce.org/cio/266266 428 http://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/07/08/four-nato-battalions-go-eastern-europe-deter-russia.html 427 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-casualties-idUSKCN0ZZ1DU. 426 http://www.dw.com/en/with-fresh-violence-in-ukraine-is-there-hope-for-a-solution/a-19451997. 425 global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/conflict/conflict-in-ukraine. 424 www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31495099. 423 and hardware’ work DecisionoftheTrilateralContactGrouprelatingtodisengagement offorces of whichcomprises4km2(1.5squaremiles).Theagreement, named‘TheFrame- The dealbansmilitarytroopsfrombothsidesenteringthe threeregions,each to disengagetroopsfromseveralfrontlineareas,afteragreeingafragiletruce. In September2016,theUkrainianmilitaryandRussian-backedseparatistsagreed of easternUkraine. es betweengovernmentforcesandpro-RussianseparatistsintheDonbassregion seven Ukrainiansoldierswerekilledandanotherfourteenwoundedamidstclash- T. Watkins, ‘Four NATO Battalions to Goto Eastern Europe to Deter Russia’, Military.com, 8July2016, BBC News, ‘Ukraine Crisis: Battle Rages for Debaltseve Despite Truce’, 17 February 2015, http:// Deutsche Welle, ‘With Fresh Violence inUkraine, isThere Hopefor aSolution?’,5August 2016, OSCE,‘The Framework Decision of theTrilateral Contact Group relating to disengagement of forces Reuters, ‘Seven Ukrainian SoldiersKilled inEastern Regions Amid Surge inViolence, 19July2016, Global Conflict Tracker, ‘Conflict inUkraine’, October 21 2016, http://www.cfr.org/global/ 428 , includedarrangementsondisengagingthetroopsofparties and 426 427 425 InsuchanincidentinthemonthofJuly2016, 423 424

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 99 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 100 Russian-backed separatists, the OSCESMMmissionreportedthatitsaccesstocertainareaswasdeniedby crisis, withnotowaterorelectricity. a result,Avdiivkaandsurroundingareaswereleftonthebrinkofhumanitarian ceasefire hasbeenviolatedshortlyaftertheconclusionofagreement, tored bytheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-operationinEurope(OSCE). but hasfailedtoendthefighting,whichbeganinApril2014.Thetruceismoni- truce agreementon15September,whichhasreducedtheviolenceinregion 2e0076ac-8429-11e6-b57d-dd49277af02f_story.html www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukrainian-rebel-leaders-divided-by-bitter-purge/2016/10/03/ 438 3 February 2017, available at:http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56110#.WK9U3W-LTIU 437 436 several-dead-and-test-trumps-russia-stance 1 February, 2017, available at:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/01/ukraine-clashes-leave- 435 photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw of 2016’, 10 February 2017, available at:https://twitter.com/OSCE_SMM/status/829980631497113604/ 434 heavy weapons holding area”, October 26, 2016, available at: http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/277306 as of 19:30, 25 October 2016’: “Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel againdenied theSMMaccess to a 433 into thevillage’,29October, 2016, available at:http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/278046 checkpoint ontheeastern edge of Novolaspa (50kmsouth of Donetsk)andprevented from proceeding two “DPR”heavy weapons holdingareas.… The SMMwas stopped by anarmed manata“DPR”-controlled as of 19:30, 28October 2016’: ‘The SMMwas not allowed to approach weapons to verify serial numbersat 432 kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/kyiv-records-five-ceasefire-breaches-in-donbas-423338.html 431 http://www.dw.com/en/ukraåine-and-russian-backed-rebels-agree-to-pullback-of-troops/a-19567017. 430 cio/266271?download=true forces andhardware, September 21 2016, fulltext (available inRussian) at:http://www.osce.org/ru/ 429 kalov whowasamongthedozensofseniorofficialskilledinpurge. Republic) continues,asdoesthekillingofofficials.OneexampleisGennadyTsyp- Meanwhile, theinternalleadershippurgeamongstrebels(LuhanskPeople’s of theconflictamountedto9,800people. According totheUN,byFebruary3,2017,totaldeathtollsincebeginning purposes ofmonitoring. their actionstotheOSCESMMandguaranteeaccessfor of relocation,aswellanundertakingbythepartiestoconflictreport creating aceasefirezoneof2kmwidthandlengthbetweenthepositions January 2017, amount ofceasefireviolationssincethebeginning2016reachedtheirpeakin Kyivpost, ‘Kyiv records five ceasefire breaches inDonbas’, September 20, 2016, available at:https://www. OSCE,‘Latest from OSCESpecial Monitoring Mission (SMM)to Ukraine, based oninformation received ShaunWalker, ‘Ukraine clashesleave several dead andtest Trump’s Russia stance’, The Guardian, OSCE, ‘Latest from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine, based on information received J. Losh ‘Ukrainian Rebel Leaders Divided by Bitter Purge’, Ibid. Twitter, ‘Numberof ceasefire violationsrecorded by theOSCESMMperweek since thebeginning Deutsche Welle, ‘Ukraine and Russian-Backed Rebels Agree to Pullback of Troops’, September 21 2016, OSCE, ‘The Framework Decision of the Trilateral Contact Group relating to disengagement of UN News Centre, ‘Civilians face ‘dire’ situation amid ongoing hostilities in eastern Ukraine, UN warns’, 434 duringthefightincityofAvdiivkaDonetskregion. 429 Thelatestpeaceprospectscomeinresponsetoanew 432 aswellbyUkrainianArmedForces. 436 437 The Washington Post, 3 October 2016, https:// 433 Overall,the 438 431 430 435 and The As As

er Russia’soccupationofpartDonbas’. stated that‘Putinhaslegallyrecognisedthequasi-stateterroristgroupswhichcov- reaction tothedecreeissuedbyPresidentofRussia,Ukrainianauthorities Ukrainian securityforcesestimatedthegovernmentaround50,000nationwide. ment declaringthatde-factoonly6.000soldierswerein‘combatreadiness’. personnel. However,on11March2014AdmiralIhorTenuikhmadeapublicstate- by ex-presidentYanukovych,asofDecember31thearmyUkrainehad125.482 According tothebill‘OnstrengthofArmedForcesUkrainein2013’signed 1. UkraineArmedForces aratists armedgroups. The partiestotheNIACswereUkrainianarmedforcesagainstpro-Russiansep- by de-factoauthorities,actinginDonetskandLuganskregionsofUkraine’. On 18February2017,Russiaannouncedthatitacceptsidentitydocuments‘issued ukraine-rebels-explainer/. Ukraine’s Pro-Russia Rebels?’, CNN, 23 July http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/22/world/europe/2014, 444 443 eastern-europe/ukraine. 442 com/Politics/115444. 441 www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39018429 440 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53895 of theDonetskandLuhansk regions of Ukraine’), para 1a),18February, 2017, available inRussian at: of documentsissued to Ukrainian citizens andstateless persons residing intheterritories of certain areas отдельных районов Донецкой и Луганской областей Украины выданных гражданам Украины и лицам без гражданства, проживающим на территориях 439 minister oftheself-declaredDonetskPeople’sRepublic(DPR),tostrengthenhis teer recruitsinDonetsk,followingapledgebyAlexanderZakharchenko,prime Amid theescalatinghostilities,insurgentsannouncedacall-upofnewvolun- 6.000 and20.000fighters. Ukrainian securitysourcesestimatedtherebels’strengthtobeinarangebetween 2. ‘TheDonetskPeople’s Republic’ andthe‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ tally, itissuppliedbymanufacturerslocatedpredominantlyintheEastofUkraine. equipment andarmamentispresentinexceedinglysmallquantitiesand,coinciden- At present,thearmamentofUkrainianArmyis90-95%wornoutoroutdated.New B. P

ar Указ о признании документов, признании о Officialwebsite of thePresident of theRussian Federation, ‘Указ The Ukrainian Week, ‘IntheArmy Now’. Ukraine Profile, International CrisisGroup, https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/ Ukraine Profile, CrisisWatch Database, 1August 2014; see also L.Smith-Spark, Who Are BBC, ‘Russia BBC, accepts passports issued by east Ukraine rebels’, 19February 2017, available at:http:// The Ukranian Week, ‘IntheArmy Now: Answering Many Why’s’, http://ukrainianweek. 8July2014, ties t o the Conflicts 444 440 ’ (‘The decree ontherecognition 441 439 443 In In 442

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 101 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 102

there is mounting evidence of cross-border artillery shelling since 14 July. months ofmilitarytrainingontheterritoryRussianFederation’. hicles and armoured personnel carriers, and 1,200 personnel who underwent four vehicles, ofwhichabout30areactualtanksandtherestinfantryfightingve- netsk withthoseinLuhansk,statingthattheywerepossessionof‘150combat troops-killed-in-ukraine. 19 January2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/19/russia-official-silence-for-families- 454 russian-artillery-strikes-against-ukraine/. Ukraine, December Bellingcat, 21 2016, https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2016/12/21/ 453 news/europe/2014/07/ukraine-says-soldiers-under-fire-from-russia-201472592936697212.html 452 com/news/world-europe-28345039. 451 menaced-russian-forces. Guardian, 30August https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/30/tension-ukrainian-towns- 2014, 450 com/news/world-europe-28934213. 449 News, 10 March 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31794523. bbc.com/news/world-europe-28963310; M.Urban, ‘How Many Russians Are FightinginUkraine?’, BBC 448 http://www.rulac.org/browse/conflicts/international-armed-conflict-in-ukraine#collapse2accord. 447 com/news/world-europe-28817347. 446 cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-troops-pro-russia-rebels-intensify-clashes/. 445 charged membersoftheRussianarmy. tions, claimingthattheRussiansfightinginUkrainearevolunteers,includingdis- ticipating inthefightingeasternUkraine.However,Russiadeniestheseallega- From theoutset,UkrainehasconsistentlyclaimedthatRussiansoldierswerepar- forces to100,000men. ly, therearemanyreportsofRussiansoldiershavingdiedinUkraine. soldiers werefightingalongsiderebels. cross-border shelling. servicemen ineasternUkraine. having shotdownaUkrainianmilitaryplane. C. La Conflict BBC News, ‘Ukraine Conflict: Russia Accused of Shooting Down Jet’, http://www.bbc. 17July2014, S. Case and C. Anders,Putin’sUndeclared S.Case andC. War: Summer2014 —Russian ArtilleryStrikes Against Al-Jazeera, ‘Ukraine andRussia ClaimBorder Crossfire’, http://www.aljazeera.com/ 25July2014, This section isdrawn from theRule of Law inArmed Conflicts project (rulac.org) profile of Ukraine, A. Luhn, ‘They A. were Never There: Russia’s Silence for Families of Troops Killed in Ukraine’, AP, ‘Ukraine Troops, Pro-Russia Rebels Intensify Clashes’, CBS News, 10 February 2015, http://www. S.Walker Luhn, ‘Tension andA. HighinUkrainian Border Towns Menaced by Russian Forces’, The BBC News, ‘Ukraine Crisis:“Thousands of Russians” FightinginEast’, 28August http://www. 2014, BBC News, ‘Captured Russian Troops “inUkraine by Accident”, 26 August http://www.bbc. 2014, BBC News, ‘Ukraine Crisis:Rebel Fighters “Trained inRussia”’, 16August http://www.bbc. 2014, tes t Developments in 2016: A een Betw Ukraine and Russia? 452 445 Based on the analysis of satellite images and social media, InAugust2014,ZakharchenkolinkedtherebelsinDo- 449 LocalshavealsorepeatedlyclaimedthatRussian P 448 arallel Interna 450 UkrainehasrepeatedlycapturedRussian InJuly2014,UkraineaccusedRussiaof 447 451 Bothhaveaccusedeachotherof tional Armed

454 446 The Guardian,

453 Final-

amount towarcrimes. in Ukraine,allegingthatthescaleofhumanrightsabusescountrymight Commissioner forHumanRightsissueditsreportonthehumanrightssituation humanity inthecountry. Bensouda, openedapreliminaryinvestigationintoallegationsofcrimesagainst vember 2013to22February2014. jurisdiction oftheICCoverallegedcrimescommittedinitsterritoryfrom21No- 12(3) of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) accepting the On 17April2014,theGovernmentofUkrainelodgedadeclarationunderArticle the non-internationalarmedconflict.’ of armedhostilitiesineasternUkrainefrom14July2014atthelatest,parallelto tion ‘wouldsuggesttheexistenceofaninternationalarmedconflictincontext ber 2016ReportonPreliminaryExaminationActivitiesthattheavailableinforma- fice oftheProsecutorInternationalCriminalCourtconcludedinitsNovem- to be a parallel international armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The Of- ternational armedconflictsbetweentherebelsandgovernment,thereappears Ukraine insupportoftherebelssinceJuly2014.Hence,additiontonon-in- All thesefactorscombinedpointtowardsdirectRussianinvolvementineastern country-chapters/ukraine. 459 http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/10thOHCHRreportUkraine.pdf. 458 http://jurist.org/paperchase/2014/04/icc-opens-preliminary-investigation-into-alleged-ukraine-crimes.php. 457 456 vol91/iss1/9/. 91 an earlier pointintime,see R.Heinsch, ‘Conflict Classification inUkraine: The Return of the“Proxy War”?’, 455 prosecutors from the Netherlands, Australia, Belgium, Malaysia and Ukraine,was in the subsequent cover-up, which continues to this day. The report by a team of not onlyinthedeploymentofmissilesystemcalledaBuck, orSA-11,butalso port largelyconfirmedtheRussiangovernment’salreadywidely documentedrole quest of Russian-backed separatists, and returned to Russia the same night.The re- two yearsago,killingall298peopleonboard,wastruckedinfromRussiaatthere- to-air missilesystemusedtoshootdownaMalaysiaAirlinesplaneoverUkraine In September2016,aDutch-ledinvestigationconcludedthatthepowerfulsurface- ly includedarbitrarydetention,enforceddisappearancesandtorture. ber 2014intoallegedcrimesbythepro-KievAydarbattalion,whichhavereported- At thedomesticlevel,KievauthoritiesopenedacriminalinvestigationinSeptem- D . War Crimes Alle International Law Studies 323(2015), U.S.Naval College of War, http://stockton.usnwc.edu/ils/ 354, K.Bennett,‘ICC OpensPreliminary Investigation Into Alleged Ukraine Crimes’, JURIST, 25April2014, OTP, ‘Report on Preliminary ExaminationActivities 2016’, §169. For acontrary view, albeit reached at OHCHR,‘Report on theHumanRightsSituationinUkraine 16February to 15May 2015’, HumanRightsWatch, ‘World Report 2015: Ukraine’, http://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/ See ICC, Ukraine, https://www.icc-cpi.int/ukraine ga 458 tions, Inves 457 InMay2015,theOfficeofUnitedNationsHigh 456 On25April2014,theICCProsecutor,Fatou tiga 455 tions, and Prose cutions 459

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 103 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 104 Eastern UkrainearecurrentlypendingbeforetheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights. Three inter-statecasesinitiatedbyUkraineconcerningRussia’sactionsinCrimeaand 464 available at:http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/166/19310.pdf requests theCourt to indicate provisional measures’, International Court of Justice, 17January, 2017, 463 http://www.ejiltalk.org/ukraine-versus-russia-in-international-courts-and-tribunals/. 462 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37495067. 461 malaysia-air-flight-mh17-russia-ukraine-missile.html Ukraine, 460 II. Thereisalsoanon-internationalarmedconflictbetweentheHouthiandAQAP. The conflicthasmetthethresholdforapplicabilityof1977AdditionalProtocol not sufficientevidencetoclassifytheconflictasaninternationalarmedconflict. are instancesinwhichIranwasaccusedofsupportingHouthirebelsbutthereis al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in the South of Yemen in 2016. There in anon-internationalarmedconflictagainstHouthirebelstheNorthand Yemen andtheconsolidatedforces(ledbySaudiArabia)continuedtobeinvolved Classification oftheconflicts: 10. Yemen in 2016: A the EliminationofAllFormsRacialDiscrimination. Suppression oftheFinancingTerrorismandInternationalConventionon sures withregardtoallegedviolationsoftheInternationalConventionfor ternational CourtofJusticeandrequestedthetoindicateprovisionalmea- Finally, inJanuary2017,UkraineinstitutedproceedingsagainstRussiaattheIn- saying thatRussiansoldierswereinvolved. legal struggle. The inquiry did not name individual culprits and stopped short of ing acasedirectlyimplicatingRussia,anditislikelytoopenlongdiplomatic significant forapplyingstandardsofevidenceadmissibleincourtwhilestillbuild- ing theirrighttolife’. terrorism, andviolatingthehumanrightsofmillionsUkraine’scitizens,includ- fairs todangerousnewlevels,interveningmilitarilyinUkraine,financingactsof ‘since 2014theRussianFederationhasescalateditsinterferenceinUkrainianaf- the findingsofinvestigation,arguingthatitwillwaitforfinalverdict. BBC News, ‘MH17Missile “Came From Russia”, Dutch-Led Investigators Say’, 28 September 2016, International Court of Justice, ‘Ukraine institutes proceedings against theRussian Federation and G.Nuridzhanyan, ‘Ukraine vs.Russia inInternational Courts andTribunals’, Talk!, EJIL: 9March 2016, Ibid. S. Sengupta and A.E. Kramer, S.Sengupta andA.E. ‘Dutch InquiryLinksRussia to 298Deaths inExplosionof JetlinerOver The New York Times, 28September 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/world/asia/ 464 Heavy Toll on Civilians 460 Russiarefusedtogiveitsopinionon 463

Ukraine contendedthat 461 462

displaced fromtheirhomesinthenortherngovernorates2009–10. ern Syrianborder. against tribalmilitia,gainingcontrolofvarioustownsandvillagesnearthenorth- of Jabalal-Dukhan. Saudi Arabiaandtook‘fullcontrol’ofamountainoussectiontheborderregion On 4November2009,Houthisreportedlyfoughttheirwayacrosstheborderinto tween the Houthis and Saudi security forces along the border of the twocountries. bia ofsupportingtheYemeniGovernment.InOctober2009,clashesbrokeoutbe- ities accusingIranofbackingtheHouthis,whileHouthisaccusedSaudiAra- Furthermore, theconflictacquiredaregionaldimension,withYemeniauthor- ing Houthileadersandcivilians. some ofthefiercestfighting.Dozenswerereportedlykilledonbothsides,includ- Sa’da andAmranprovinces,backedbyairstrikesartilleryfireresultingin gust 2009,theGovernmentlaunchedamajoroffensiveagainstHouthisin in thecountryside,butescalatingJune2008tooutskirtsofSanaa.InAu- Since theclashesof2004,therehavebeenperiodssustainedfighting,mostly ates whereZaidisdominate. counter growingfundamentalistSunnitrendsinthenorthernYemenigovernor- aimed atrevivingZaidiIslam,abranchofShi’ismfoundmainlyinYemen,to 2004. Husainal-HouthifoundedtheBelievingYouthmovementin1990s, Conflict betweenYemeniforcesandHouthirebelsbeganasisolatedclashesin 471 470 yemen.violence/index.html?_s=PM:WORLD. 469 yemen-2004-first-combat-deaths/. 468 by-the-c.html. media/press-releases/artikel/8e6a57b4a95019884040a369d1ead582/more-than-200000-displaced- 467 al-houthi-rebels. Threats, 31August 2009, www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/critical-war-fragile-country-yemens-battle-shiite- 466 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14704852. 465 ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s government announced the formation of Violence continuedthroughout2015and2016.InlateJuly2016, theHouthisand radically. the HouthisinFebruary2010,thoughepisodesofviolencecontinuedtooccurspo- A ceasefire seemed to have been reached between the Yemeni Government and northern governoratesin2009–10. A . His Ploughshares, Yemen (2004 –first combat deaths). UNHCR,‘More than200,000 Displaced by theConflict inYemen’, 12January2010, www.unhcr.se/en/ Unless otherwise stated, thissection isbased onBBC News, ‘Yemen Country Profile’, 17January UNHCR,‘More than200,000 displaced by theconflict inYemen’, 12January2010. CNN,‘Yemeni cease-fire breached’, 13February 2010, edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/02/13/ Ploughshares, Yemen (2004 –first combat deaths) , March 2012, ploughshares.ca/pl_armedconflict/ C. Harnisch, ACritical C. War inaFragile Country: Yemen’s BattlewiththeShiite alHouthiRebels, Critical t ory of the Conflict 469 Anestimated200,000personsweredisplacedfromtheirhomesinthe 471 468 465 466 470 Anestimated200,000personswerereportedly In2011–12,theHouthiscontinuedfighting 467

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 105 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 106 ‘contributing’ totheHouthis’takeoverinYemen, 2013, www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=44638#.UZCwtxZBvX4. 477 country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=yemen. 476 com/pulse/politics/2015/02/yemen-aden-gcc-houthis-gulf-support.html#ixzz3ULTWzHaG. 475 com/pulse/originals/2015/02/iran-yemen-houthis-axis-of-resistance.html. 474 4704852. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/afp/2016/08/yemen-conflict-health-probe-saudi-msf.html. al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/yemen-government-bank-houthis-council-chaos.html. 472 ed tothe‘ArabSpring’movementbyaligningwith‘revolutionary youth’calling lize the government and of ‘stirring anti-American sentiment’. Thegroup respond- tion, thoughtheYemeniGovernmenthasinturnaccuseditof wishingtodestabi- asserted thattheiractionsaretodefendHouthisagainstGovernment discrimina- ported killedbyYemeniarmyforcesinSeptember2004.The Houthirebelshave name fromHusseinBadreddinal-Houthi,theirformercommander,whowasre- al-Houthi is a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. The group takes its 2. Houthi Rebels Houthi rebels, is providingextensivematerial,financial,trainingandlogisticalassistancetothe At thisstageitisnotpossibletoconsiderIranasapartytheNIAC.Although rebels andAlQaeda(AQAP). The partiestotheNIACin2016areYemenanditsarmedforcesagainstHouthi their alliesinKuwaitsinceApril,withoutamajorbreakthrough. Abedrabbo MansourHadi’sgovernmentandtheIran-backedHouthirebels gust 2016.TheUNSpecialEnvoyhadbeenmediatingthetalksbetweenPresident After morethanthreemonths,peacetalkstoendthewarweresuspendedinAu- di-backed governmentofPresidentAbedRabboMansourHadi. of northYemen.Meanwhile,fightingcontinuedbetweentherebelsandSau- a ‘politicalcouncil’togovernSanaa,Yemen’scapitalandlargestcity,much ists. The YemeniArmedForcesisestimatedtobe250,700strong,with250,000reserv- 1. Yemeni ArmedForces be regardedas‘overallcontrol’,requiredbytheTadicjurisprudenceofICTY. mand basedontheruleoflaw’. to integratingthemunderunified,nationalandprofessionalleadershipcom- restructure thenation’ssecuritysector,inparticulararmedforces‘withaview B. P 476 ar UNNews Centre, ‘Yemen: Ban,Security Council welcome efforts to reform armed forces’, 12 April Al-Monitor, ‘GCC Moves to Legitimize Aden asYemen’s Capital’, 1March 2015, http://www.al-monitor. S.ShahidSaless ‘DoesIran Really Control Yemen?’, Al-Monitor, 12February 2015, http://www.al-monitor. A. Nasser, A. ‘Yemeni Conflict GoesBackto Square One’,Al-Monitor, 14August 2016, http://www. Global Firepower, ‘Yemen Military Strength’, December 2016, http://www.globalfirepower.com/ UNSecretary-GeneralBanKi-moonwelcomedPresidentHadi’seffortsto ties t o the Conflict 474 tothepointthatUSSecretaryofState,JohnKerry,accusedIran 477 475 suchcontributioncannotyet 472 473 116022000534_1.html. http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/qaeda-kills-three-in-sweep-of-yemen-s-south- 482 site/groups/aqap.html. 481 Detail/2016/02/05/448750/Yemen-Saudi-Arabia-Hamdan-Aden/. al-Qaeda. emerged inJanuary2009throughaunionoftheSaudiandYemenibranches cape of23Al-Qa‘idamembersfromaprisoninSanaa,February2006.AQAP Al-Qa‘ida inYemen(AQY),AQAP’spredecessor,cameintoexistenceafterthees- 3. AlQaedaintheArab Peninsula (AQAP) for thedownfallofregimeandjusticeitsvictims. 480 brief/news/is-yemen-on-the-brink-of-economic-meltdown-and-civil-war. 479 2012) 13,.www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/yemens-Houthi-movement-in-the-wake-of-the-arab-spring. 478 with theirheadquartersinAlMukalla On 20February2016,AQAPseizedthesouthernAbyangovernance,linkingthem Paris on7January2015. last butnotleasttheoneatheadquartersofCharlieHebdosatiricalmagazinein the U.S..Itis believed tohave orchestrated numerous high-profile terrorist attacks, Australia, Canada,Russia,Syria,Iran,Yemen,SaudiArabia,theUAE,EUand the moreattractive. the public,makingHouthisundertheirnewlybrandedAnsarAllahnameall parties, nowdisorganizedwithanunclearvision,havefallenoutoffavour period hasdrawnmoresupporterstotheHouthis.Manyofformerlypowerful ments inYemen.ThepowervacuumcreatedbyYemen’suncertaintransitional outliers, arenowoneofthemoststableandorganizedsocialpoliticalmove- tiative targetingthecountry,whichwasbeingimplementedbySaudiArabia. the southernpartspledgedunionagainstwhattheydescribedasaU.S.-Israeliini- Saudi aggression.Inagatheringheldinthecapital,hundredsoftribesmenfrom port intheformofpotentialmobilizationforcountry’sfightersresisting powerful tribes,ralliedtothenorthofcapital,Sana’a,vowingprovidesup- On 5February2016,presstvreportedthatMenofHamdan,oneYemen’smost NationalCounterterrorism Center, ‘Al Qa’ida intheArabian Peninsula (AQAP)’, http://www.nctc.gov/ L.Winter, ‘Yemen’s HuthiMovement intheWake of theArab Spring’,5,CTC Sentinel , 8(August A. Potter, A. ‘Yemen inCrisis’, Esquire MiddleEast, 5September 2015, http://www.esquireme.com/ AFP, ‘Qaeda KillsThree inSweep of Yemen’s South’,Business Standard, 20 February 2016, PressTv 481 ‘Yemeni Tribes Call for Mobilization Against Saudi Arabia’, 5February 2016, http://presstv.ir/ ThegrouphasbeendesignatedasaterroristorganizationbytheUN, 479

482 478 The Houthis,oncethe 480

PART 2 : Key Developments of Selected Armed Conflicts in 2016 107 The War Report : Armed Conflicts in 2016 108

UN caninvestigateallegationsofviolationsIHL. committee calledforthesuspensionofweaponssalestoSaudiArabiauntil tional humanitarianlaw.InSeptember,areportfromUKjointparliamentary U.S. ontheSaudi-ledcoalition,whichisfacingaccusationsofbreachinginterna- growing number of civilian casualties has put added pressure by the UK and the among civiliansinthekingdom’sbombingcampaignYemen. announced the halt of arms sales to Saudi Arabia because of the high death toll Without Borders,killing11peopleandwoundingmorethan19others. theferret.scot/investigation-underway-into-alleged-yemen-war-crime-97-killed/. 488 saudi-arabia-over-yemen-airstrikes. December 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/13/us-to-halt-planned-arms-sales-to- 487 2016, http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-arms-sales-yemen-saudi-arabia-556224369. 486 www.al-monitor.com/pulse/afp/2016/08/yemen-conflict-health-probe-saudi-msf.html. 485 airstrikes-on-yemen-have-hit-civilian-sites-data-shows. The Guardian, 16September 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/16/third-of-saudi- 484 Final%20v2.pdf. http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Humanitarian%20Dashboard_Jan-Aug%20 483 company withafactoryinFife. smart bombs fired at a busy market had guidance systems produced by a US arms In 2016, an investigation began into an alleged war crime in Yemen and whether Criminal Court. Yemen hassignedbutnotratifiedthe1998RomeStatuteofInternational 2016. than 6,800peoplewere killed and35,000 injured fromMarch2015untilAugust ing totheUNOfficeforCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs(OCHA),more In 2016,theconflictcontinuedtotakeaheavytollonYemenicivilians.Accord- C. La survey oftheconflict. kets, mosquesandeconomicinfrastructure,accordingtothemostcomprehensive al coalitionraidshavehitciviliansites,suchasschoolbuildings,hospitals,mar- D . War Crimes Alle E. MacAskill, ‘USto E.MacAskill, Halt Planned ArmsSalesto SaudiArabia Over Yemen airstrikes’, The Guardian, 13 OCHA, ‘Yemen OCHA, :Humanitarian Dashboard (January–August 2016)’, AFP, ‘Coalition OpenProbe Into Deadly Yemen Hospital Raid’,Al-Monitor, 16August 2016, http:// B.Briggs,‘Investigation Into Alleged Yemen War Crime:97 Killed’, The Ferret, 12April2016, https:// G.Baker, ‘SaudiArmsSalesMust End,UKParliamentary Report Says’, MiddleEast Eye, 15September E. MacAskill andP. E.MacAskill Torpay, ‘One inThree SaudiAirRaidsonYemen HitCivilian Sites, Data Shows’, 483 tes Ithasbeenreportedthatmorethanone-thirdofallSaudi-ledmultination- t Developments in 2016: A ga 484 tions, Inves On15August,anairstrikehitahospitalrunbyDoctors 488 tiga Heavy Toll on Civilians tions, and Prose 486 In December2016,theU.S. cutions 487

485 The the conductofhostilities. hospitals, schools,civilianbusinessesandmosques,inviolationofIHLruleson amount towarcrimes,asthecoalitionhasunlawfullyattackedhomes,markets, and forcesloyaltoformerPresidentAliAbdullahSalehsinceMarch2015might itary operationsinYemen,supportedbytheU.S.andUK,againstHouthiforces In January2017,HumanRightsWatchdeclaredthattheSaudi-ledcoalitionmil- hrw.org/news/2017/01/12/yemen-no-accountability-war-crimes. 489 HumanRightsWatch, ‘Yemen: NoAccountability for War Crimes’, 12January2017, https://www. 489

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