WMO Bulletin, Volume 54, No. 2: April 2005

Cover(final)GB+dos 4mm.qxd(8) 17/06/05 12:24 Page a1

Vol. 54 (2) April 2005 feature articles - interviews - news - book reviews - calendar Climate research: achievements and Volume 54 No. 2 No. 54 Volume 2005 April Weather and crops in 2004 challenges

The global climate system in 2004

25th anniversary of the World Climate Research Programme

World Meteorological Organization 7bis, avenue de la Paix Case postale No. 2300

CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland WMO BULLETIN Tel:+ 41 22 730 81 11 Fax: + 41 22 730 81 81 Water and energy cycles Hurricane Ivan’s impact Climate change indices E-mail: [email protected] Stratospheric processes on the Cayman Islands The cryosphere and the Web: http://www.wmo.int ISSN 0042-9767 www.wmo.int and climate Climate change and variability climate system Cover(final)GB+dos 4mm.qxd(8) 17/06/05 12:24 Page a2

The World Meteorological North America, Central America and the Congress Caribbean (Region IV) The World C. Fuller (Belize) is the supreme body of the Organization. It South-West Pacific (Region V) brings together delegates of all Members Woon Shih Lai (Singapore) CD-ROM Meteorological once every four years to determine general Europe (Region VI) policies for the fulfilment of the purposes D.K. Keuerleber-Burk (Switzerland) (acting) Organization of the Organization.

The CD-Rom contains (in pdf format in both (WMO) The Executive Council Elected members of the Executive high and low resolution): Council is composed of 37 directors of National Weather • Climate • Water • WMO Bulletin 54 (2) – April 2005 Meteorological or Hydrometeorological M.L. Bah (Guinea) Services serving in an individual capacity; it J.-P. Beysson (France) • MeteoWorld – April 2005 meets at least once a year to supervise the Q.-uz-Z. Chaudhry (Pakistan) • Weather, climate, water and programmes approved by Congress. Chow Kok Kee (Malaysia) sustainable development (WMO-No. 974) M.D. Everell (Canada) (Brochure for World Meteorological Day 2005) U. Gärtner (Germany) The six regional associations B. Kassahun (Ethiopia) • Saving paradise, ensuring sustainable J.J. Kelly (United States of America) development (WMO-No. 973) are each composed of Members whose R.D.J. Lengoasa (South Africa) task it is to coordinate meteorological, G.B. Love (Australia) (acting) hydrological and related activities within J. Lumsden (New Zealand) The CD-Rom also contains (in pdf format in low resolution) : their respective Regions. F.P. Mote (Ghana) WMO Headquarters building A.D. Moura (Brazil) (acting) • World Climate Research Programme: 25 years of J.R. Mukabana (Kenya) science serving society (Brochure) The eight technical commissions K. Nagasaka (Japan) (acting) • Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment—Phase I WMO is a specialized agency of the I. Obrusnik (Czech Republic) (acting) (Brochure) United Nations. are composed of experts designated by H.H. Oliva (Chile) Its purposes are: Members and are responsible for studying Qin Dahe (China) • Nine WCRP flyers meteorological and hydrological operational J.K. Rabadi (Jordan) (acting) To facilitate worldwide cooperation in the systems, applications and research. D. Rogers (United Kingdom) (acting) establishment of networks of stations B.T. Sekoli (Lesotho) for the making of meteorological obser- R. Sorani (Italy) vations as well as hydrological and other Executive Council S.K. Srivastav (India) geophysical observations related to meteorology, and to promote the estab- President (four seats vacant) lishment and maintenance of centres A.I. Bedritsky (Russian Federation) charged with the provision of meteorological and related services; First Vice-President To promote the establishment and main- A.M. Noorian (Islamic Republic of Iran) tenance of systems for the rapid Presidents of technical exchange of meteorological and related Second Vice-President commissions information; T.W. Sutherland (British Caribbean To promote standardization of meteoro- Territories) Aeronautical Meteorology logical and related observations and to N.D. Gordon ensure the uniform publication of obser- Third Vice-President Agricultural Meteorology vations and statistics; M.A. Rabiolo (Argentina) R.P. Motha To further the application of meteorology Atmospheric Sciences to aviation, shipping, water problems, A. Eliassen agriculture and other human activities; Ex officio members of the Basic Systems To promote activities in operational Executive Council (presidents of A.I. Gusev hydrology and to further close coopera- regional associations) Climatology tion between Meteorological and Y. Boodhoo Hydrological Services; Africa (Region I) Hydrology To encourage research and training in M.S. Mhita (United Republic of Tanzania) B. Stewart meteorology and, as appropriate, in Asia (Region II) Instruments and Methods of Observation related fields, and to assist in A.M.H. Isa (Bahrain) R.P. Canterford (acting) coordinating the international aspects of South America (Region III) Oceanography and Marine Meteorology such research and training. R. Michelini (Uruguay) (acting) J. Guddal and S. Narayanan BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:27 Page 49

Contents The official journal In this issue ...... 50 of the World Climate change and variability—what can we predict? ...... 51 Water and energy cycles: investigating the links ...... 58

Meteorological From ozone hole to chemical climate prediction ...... 65 Organization Frozen assets: the cryosphere’s role in the climate system ...... 75 Climate change indices ...... 83 Vol. 54 No. 2 The global climate system in 2004 ...... 87 April 2005 Weather and global crop production in 2004 ...... 92

Hurricane Ivan’s impact on the Cayman Islands ...... 97 Secretary-General Michel JARRAUD Deputy Secretary-General Hong YAN Assistant Secretary-General Vacant Visits of the Secretary-General ...... 101

Subscription rates Book reviews ...... 105 Surface mail Air mail 1 year CHF 60 CHF 85 New books received ...... 107 2 years CHF 110 CHF 150 3 years CHF 145 CHF 195 Recently issued ...... 108 Published quarterly (January, April, July, October) in English, French, Russian and Staff news ...... 109 Spanish editions. Obituaries ...... 111

Opinions expressed in signed articles or in Calendar ...... 112 advertisements appearing in the WMO Bulletin are the author's or advertiser's opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products in articles or advertisements does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. Extracts from unsigned (or initialled) articles in the journal may be reproduced provided the customary acknowl- edgement is made. Requests to publish signed articles (in part or in whole) should be addressed to the Editor.

Editor: Hong Yan Associate Editor: Judith C.C. Torres

E-mail: [email protected] Cover photo: Nick Cox, British Antarctic Survey Tel.: (+41) 22 730.84.78 Fax: (+41) 22 730.80.24

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tel:+ 41 22 730 81 11 7bis, avenue de la Paix Fax: + 41 22 730 81 81 Case postale No. 2300 E-mail: [email protected] CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Web: http://www.wmo.int BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:27 Page 50

been implemented mainly through a collaboration resulted in an interna- small number of “core projects” and tional team of SPARC scientists related activities. Some have already receiving WMO’s Nobert Gerbier In this issue been successfully concluded and left MUMM International Award in 2003. significant scientific, technical and practical legacies, in particular: the “Frozen assets: the cryosphere’s role in Tropical Ocean and Global the climate system” traces WCRP’s Atmosphere project (TOGA, 1985- initiatives in promoting cryospheric 1994); the World Ocean Circulation research from the achievements of the Experiment (WOCE, 1982-2002); and regionally focused ACSYS to the devel- the Arctic Climate System Study opment and introduction of WCRP’s (ACSYS, 1994-2003). Today, the newest core project, Climate and WCRP consists of four major core Cryosphere (CliC), which recognizes the projects and various cross-cutting and full global extent of the cryosphere’s co-sponsored activities. This issue presence and influence. WCRP’s main contains articles on each of these core contributions to the International Polar projects. Year 2007-2008 will be channelled through CliC. “Climate change and variability— what can we predict?” introduces These projects have benefited from and illustrates the wide and challeng- WMO’s major Programmes and the ing remit of the Climate Variability and data provided by the observing Predictability (CLIVAR) project, build- networks operated by the National WMO celebrates 25 years of climate research ing on the legacies of its Meteorological and Hydrological for the benefit of society and looks forward predecessors, TOGA and WOCE. Services. to addressing the challenges of the future. A CLIVAR research is aimed at develop- main focus of activities is the cryosphere. ing more useful predictions of climate Another feature article is one which variability and change through the use describes the importance of regional of improved climate models and workshops to produce indices of This issue of the Bulletin celebrates observations. climate change for certain countries 25 years of climate research by WMO and regions where data have hitherto and the World Climate Research The Global Energy and Water Cycle been lacking. They are also a good Programme (WCRP), sponsored by Experiment (GEWEX) carries out beginning for regional cooperation. WMO, the International Council for investigations of the atmosphere, its Science and the Intergovernmental global water cycle and energy The North Atlantic hurricane season Oceanographic Commission of budget, and how they might affect, was a record-breaking one in terms of UNESCO. The main objectives set for and adjust to, climate change. numbers, proximity and severity. Ivan the WCRP at its inception in 1980 “Water and energy cycles: investi- caused death and destruction across remain valid today and for the foresee- gating the links” recognizes GEWEX the Caribbean. An article describing able future: to determine the achievements to date and also high- Ivan’s impact on the Cayman Islands predictability of climate and the extent lights the ever-challenging objectives shows the importance of international of human influence on climate. currently being addressed. cooperation and of preparedness measures to reduce loss of life and The WCRP has made enormous “From ozone hole to chemical climate property, promoted by WMO. advances in understanding specific prediction” is testimony to the components (ocean, land, atmos- strengths and value of international Other articles in this issue are “The phere, cryosphere) of the climate coordination, collaboration, and global climate system in 2004” and system and created many new oppor- commitment in research as demon- “Weather and global crop production tunities and challenges for research strated by the achievements of the in 2004”. and its applications of the results for Stratospheric Processes and their Role the benefit of society. The WCRP has in Climate (SPARC) project. Such

50 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:27 Page 51

CLIVAR, reflecting the legacy from two previous WCRP projects, the Climate Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Project (TOGA) and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). change and Indeed, CLIVAR is now the WCRP spearhead for research on the global variability— ocean, its interactions with the atmosphere and its key role in climate International CLIVAR Project Office, variability and change. The first part of Southampton, United Kingdom what can we this article briefly summarizes the E-mail: [email protected] overall legacy of TOGA and WOCE Web: http://www.clivar.org predict? that CLIVAR now builds on. In the second part, we summarize some of the key contributions from CLIVAR coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction since its inception, drawing on the models were established and imple- outputs of the First International mented at many of the world’s major CLIVAR Science Conference held in prediction centres. Ocean data assimi- 2004. lation proved to be a key element in the initialization of seasonal-to- interannual climate forecast systems. TOGA and WOCE—the legacy In addition, the overall approach to climate science evolved during TOGA. The TOGA decade (1985-1994) Prior to TOGA, in the early to mid-1980s, provided, for the first time, a oceanographers and meteorologists concerted international effort in were often in separate and distinct observing and predicting a major communities. As part of TOGA, these By Antonio Busalacchi1, David Legler2, component of the variability of the communities came together to form a Howard Cattle3, Tim Palmer4 and coupled climate system—the El Niño- new breed of climate scientist who John Gould5 Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—and its was dedicated to exploring modes of impact on the global atmosphere. variability that occur in the coupled During TOGA, routine observations of ocean-atmosphere system and that do Introduction the air-sea interface and upper-ocean not exist in the uncoupled ocean or thermal structure in the tropical Pacific atmosphere. The impacts of climate variability and Ocean were provided in real-time by the threat of future climate change are the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TAO) In a similar manner, WOCE (1982- now key issues that are brought to our array. These mooring observations 2002) left a significant imprint on our attention on an almost daily basis. have since been sustained in the knowledge of, and ability to model, the Obtaining a better understanding of Pacific (Figure 1) and, under the spon- global oceans. It introduced innovative climate variability, predictability and sorship of CLIVAR, extended to the technology, and made changes to our change lies at the heart of the mission Atlantic and now to the Indian Ocean. scientific method. WOCE provided a of the Climate Variability and global perspective on the temporal Predictability project, CLIVAR, of the Other enhancements to the atmos- variability and mean state of the World Climate Research Programme phere and ocean observing systems world's oceans, from top to bottom. It (WCRP). Ocean-atmosphere interac- critical to ENSO prediction were also established a baseline against which tions form a particular focus for made, whilst, at the same time, to assess past and future changes and evaluate anthropogenic effects on the global ocean circulation, a key activity 1 Director, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, USA being carried forward within CLIVAR. 2 Director, US CLIVAR Project Office, Washington, USA In partnership with the Joint Global 3 Director, International CLIVAR Project Office, Southampton, United Kingdom 4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) of the 5 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Australia International Geosphere-Biosphere

51 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:27 Page 52

advances in computer power, global ocean models can now resolve ener- getic boundary currents, associated instability processes, and flow between ocean basins and also provide a dynamically consistent description of many observed aspects of the ocean circulation. The ability to represent such ocean processes is an essential step towards increased real- ism in coupled climate models.

WOCE also contributed to the concept of GODAE and the prospect of ocean reanalysis efforts, parallelling the concept of atmospheric reanalysis now undertaken at a number of opera- d b ge st dat bse re u ga at lite a r ting buo o rvi o o io l e if y er n o y e n te l r s g tional centres. WOCE changed the s d a d te m i s a y s t s n h u i way we look at the ocean and the way l p

o s

v we work as an oceanographic community. An ocean synthesis in which in situ and/or remotely-sensed observa- Figure 1 — In situ components of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation observing system tions are brought together with inverse methods or data assimilation Programme (IGBP), a carbon dioxide floats were the forerunners of the methodologies is now possible. (CO2) and tracer chemistry survey was global Argo programme, the specifica- Finally, WOCE left the legacy of its completed providing the first compre- tion for which was drawn up by an unprecedented collection of ocean hensive inventory of CO2 in the Argo Science Team in late 1998 and observations published on DVD in time oceans. Regional process studies and publicised at the CLIVAR co-sponsored for the final WOCE Conference in San focused observational campaigns OceanObs'99 conference (St Raphael, Antonio, Texas, USA (18-22 November improved our knowledge of the France, 18-22 October 1999). An Argo 2002). Atlases of the four major ocean Southern Ocean and, deepwater array of 3 000 floats, co-sponsored by basins based on these data will be formation in sub-polar seas and refined CLIVAR and the Global Ocean Data published this year. our understanding of ocean mixing, Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), the global thermohaline circulation and was planned that would use observa- the meridional transport of heat from tions and models to estimate the state CLIVAR—scope and perspectives Equator to Pole. of the global oceans. Nearly five years ago, in November Advances in ocean technology played The first Argo floats were deployed in 1998, representatives of 63 countries a major role in permitting this truly 2001. By early 2005, 1 650 floats gathered in Paris and made global perspective. For example, contributed by 18 countries were commitments to enhance our continuous observations of global sea delivering data from the top 2 km of understanding of, and ability to surface height were provided by the the global ocean (see Figure 2 and predict, climate variations on time- TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS radar http://www.argo.net). The data are scales of seasons and longer through altimeters—a legacy on which we already used routinely by operational CLIVAR. In order to highlight the many continue to build. Within the ocean, climate analysis and prediction centres advances in CLIVAR science since developments in float technology and contribute substantially to the then and identify the future research driven by WOCE led to the deploy- high-quality ocean datasets needed for challenges, the first International ment of profiling floats that could climate research. CLIVAR Science Conference was held monitor the temperature and salinity in 2004 (http://www.clivar2004.org). of the upper ocean and give subsurface Initiated by the WOCE community Over 640 scientists from 56 different current fields on global scales. These modelling effort and enabled by countries attended—the largest WCRP

52 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:27 Page 53

conference to date. The conference but predicting climate variability more low-level jet of the American monsoon specifically addressed a number of than a few months in advance remains systems (Figure 4) and in studies of themes central to CLIVAR efforts: a fundamental challenge. The reasons the Asian-Australian monsoon system. short-term climate prediction; for this include model error and error Additionally, a new effort, the African monsoons; the challenge of decadal growth and the role of initial conditions Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis prediction; understanding long-term and stochastic forcing. A sustained experiment, will provide critical contri- climate variations; the role of oceans observing system is critical and there butions that could further our in climate; human influence on are continuing challenges for the understanding of the African monsoon climate; applications of CLIVAR research community to exploit these and its impact on life in western Africa. science; and future challenges for observations, guide their implementa- CLIVAR. tion, identify new and more Predicting decadal variability requires a cost-effective technologies, and main- more global perspective. The limited Short-term climate prediction remains tain an active role as parts of the historical observational data (especially a key focus for CLIVAR, as it was for system transition to operations. in the ocean) mean that models play TOGA. There are several mechanisms an even more critical role in under- which, through responses to anom- The monsoon systems in Asia, Africa, standing decadal variability and alies in, and/or interactions with, and the Americas have much in identifying potential predictability. sea-surface temperature (SST), sea common, including a strong seasonal- Models can suggest mechanisms, test ice, soil moisture, vegetation and ity, land-sea temperature contrasts diagnostic schemes, do experiments, perhaps even troposphere-lower strat- and even the connection of monsoons and simulate predictions. Identifying osphere interactions, can result in and mountains. The contrast between the underlying mechanisms that are climate variability on seasonal-to- predictability based on statistical/ central to the climate system inter-annual time-scales. While we empirical systems and the relatively “memory” is a critical first step to have learned much about these mecha- low predictability realized from dynam- characterizing the limits of predictabil- nisms, a more complete understanding ical systems suggests that the ity. In the Pacific, for example, at least is critical for estimating predictability coupled ocean-atmosphere-land three mechanisms (intrinsic atmos- and improving our predictions. system must be further understood pheric variations, ENSO variations, Through the advances brought about and that model systematic biases SST variations, and Kuroshio mean- by TOGA and now CLIVAR, the current should be reduced to improve ders) contribute to decadal variability, set of seasonal-to-interannual forecast monsoon forecasts. With WCRP’s but there are competing theories on models have demonstrated broad Global Energy and Water Cycle how each is involved. Hence, the level skills in predicting global temperatures Experiment (GEWEX), CLIVAR is lead- of predictability is still unclear. and precipitation. The use of multi- ing multinational investigations of the Observations are helpful in monitoring model ensembles (Figure 3) has land-ocean-atmosphere coupling as important mechanisms. For example, greatly enhanced overall capabilities, manifested in the diurnal cycle and the in the Atlantic, there is a multinational

Figure 2 — Argo float deployment (below); and the Argo float array in January 2005 (right). Some 1 600 floats provide a sparse array over the ice-free oceans in the upper 2 000 m. The array is building towards a target of 3 000 floats.

53 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 54

p anomalies at a later time and often at a 4.0 different place.

3.0 On longer time-scales, the connections between the tropical and 2.0 extra-tropical oceans become more 1.0 important (for example decadal variability of ENSO). The multidecadal SST (¡C) 0.0 freshening of the North Atlantic may be indicative of a change in global -1.0 overturning circulation or of an acceler- Observed SST ating global water cycle. Modelling -2.0 Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr evidence suggests some connection 1997 1998 1999 to polar atmospheric forcing, but these Figure 3 — ENSO forecasts, such as displayed here for the 1997/1998 event, have become models resolve only coarsely impor- possible through intensive research efforts in the field of seasonal predictions. The various tant ocean processes, thus making it colours represent multiple model runs (forecasts) initiated at different times of the difficult to determine an answer. In year. (Courtesy ECMWF) addition to the hydrographic change of

effort to monitor parts of the meridional overturning circulation. Much could be gained through more complete diagnostics leading to nowcasts of the current state of decadal variations and extending current efforts to predict the North Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations.

The ocean impacts most directly on the climate through changes in SST and the partial pressure of CO2 (and other gases). Future changes in sea- level are a key question from a climate-change perspective. These are influenced not only by factors such as thermal expansion and glacier and ice cap melt but also by ocean transport and mixing processes, some of which are regionally intense and often poorly simulated and observed. We are still challenged as to how to represent eddies correctly in our models; how to consider coupling of the atmosphere to the ocean on fine scales; and how to better predict anomalous SST. The tropical oceans are central to climate because they redistribute large quantities of heat and freshwater, which are Figure 4 — The South American Low Level Jet Experiment, the first CLIVAR international often manifested as SST and salinity campaign in South America

54 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 55

water properties, ocean circulations 6.5 Northern hemisphere Global may be changing (as suggested by alti- 6.0 metric and in situ observations), which could enhance sea-level rise regionally. 5.5 5.0 Several models These changes could have global all SRES 4.5 impacts on ocean temperature, mixing Variations of the Earth's surface envelope 4.0 temperature: 1000 to 2100 rates, and CO2 uptake rates. Characterizing the distribution and 3.5 1000 to 1861: Northern hemisphere, proxy data time variations of salinity is critical for 1861 to 2000: Global, instrumental 3.0 2000 to 2100: SRES projections both extra-topical and tropical oceans. Improved diagnostics of the global 2.5

thermohaline circulation are needed. 2.0 The Southern Ocean is also important in the global climate context. It 1.5 Bars show the range in 2100 connects the upper and lower limbs of 1.0 produced by the global overturning circulation, several models 0.5 stores 60 per cent of the total anthro- Scenarios 0.0 A1B pogenic carbon, may have an annular A1T A1FI mode, has been linked to ENSO, and -0.5 A2 C) from the 1961–1990 average ( ° C) from in temperatures Departures B1 is likely to be sensitive to global B2 -1.0 climate variations. IS92a 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year Palaeoclimate records are critical for exploring longer time-scale climate Figure 5 — Past 1 000 years and future projections of surface air temperature (after IPCC, variations, i.e. on time-scales of 2001) centuries and longer. When comparing multiple reconstructions based on palaeo-proxy data, proper scaling and There are many scientific challenges provide estimates of changes in key calibration are critical. Many of the regarding human influence on climate parameters (Figure 5), includ- differences between reconstructions climate, including the linkages ing extreme values. To fully qualify any can be attributed to the calibrations between natural climate variations and detected change, we must still that are often based on data in differ- anthropogenically-induced changes. account for all uncertainties, as well as ent seasons and regions. None- CLIVAR provides input into the Inter- be mindful of missing/uncertain forc- theless, the observed late 20th governmental Panel on Climate ings. Despite the increasing similarity century warming is anomalous when Change (IPCC) by helping to meet of model sensitivities, predicted compared to proxy reconstructions these challenges through stimulating climate changes are often vastly differ- and models (over the past 2 000 efforts on climate change prediction ent from model to model. Predicted years). and detection. Thus, US CLIVAR future changes are also sensitive Climate Process Teams, which are (often larger than the envelope of natu- The recent increased melting of the attracting international participation, ral variability) to parametrizations, Greenland Ice Sheet is not (according are targeting major areas of uncertain- demonstrating the need to continue to to palaeo-records) unprecedented but, ties in IPCC-class models, whilst refine them through the use of more if projected temperature changes CLIVAR helped to lead efforts in the discriminating diagnostics and analy- under increased greenhouse-gas assessment of the model integrations ses of the differences between the concentrations are realized, sea-level for the Fourth IPCC Assessment models and observations. rise could be faster than anticipated. Report (AR4), with a major workshop Finally, palaeoclimate models have in March 2005. CLIVAR science is used for a variety of improved and can provide some addi- applications. For Africa, seasonal tional insight to climate variations (e.g. The detection of anthropogenic climate forecasts are being used to ENSO) and how their forcings and change relies on a rigorous evaluation develop an early warning system for their evolution may have changed. of observed and simulated data to malaria and meningitis. Advance

55 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 56

predictions of a range of variables such as precipitation (including totals, onset and ending dates) and environmental conditions (e.g. dust, humidity) are a necessary first step, but prediction systems have difficulty producing forecasts of these variables and the validation and monitoring observations are often inadequate. Lengthy histories of hindcasts are useful in demonstrating the value of seasonal forecasts and have led to their further operational use. CLIVAR and GEWEX are working together to improve the simulation and predictions of monsoons and intraseasonal-to- inter-annual forecasts that are valuable for water-resource managers. Seasonal CLIVAR science is used in a range of applications in various economic sectors, such as forecasts have proved useful for fishing. (Photo: FAO/I. De Borhegyi) hydroelectric power management. Some of the most notable applications of CLIVAR science have been in embedding simple biological mecha- error characteristics in order to be able agriculture. nisms into existing models that to use such tools for the design of simulate critical ocean-atmosphere better observing and forecast systems. Studies on adaptation and utilization of interactions. climate forecasts by, for example, the Prediction capabilities must continue Climate Prediction and Agriculture Future challenges to focus on validation (drawing even (CLIMAG) project of the Global more strongly on the evolving observ- Change SysTem for Analysis, There are clearly many future chal- ing system) and utilization of new Research and Training (START) and by lenges for CLIVAR. The need for more science results. In particular, the diag- others have been very valuable. It is exhaustive and coordinated efforts to nostic analysis of global datasets at important to develop region-specific identify and address model deficien- regional level presents an opportunity advice; involve farmers early and have cies remains. The observing systems to develop more strongly the links them test recommended strategies; we utilize for climate purposes between CLIVAR science on the global and finally communicate risk factors to continue to develop (some parts more scale and at the regional level—a strat- avoid calamitous losses. slowly than others) but several compo- egy that CLIVAR is pursuing. nents (especially for the ocean) remain The impacts of climate variability can the responsibility of the research In the case of climate change, such be identified on a variety of fish community. As such, CLIVAR must analyses will get to the heart of what species and on many different time- ensure they evolve to serve its needs, has often been seen as the essence of scales (from seasonal to and that mature components are the unique CLIVAR perspective on multi-decadal). Factors influencing the transferred carefully to operational climate change: analysis of how changes in fish stocks include temper- status. The melding of observations anthropogenic forcing can influence ature, circulation changes, and trophic and models in an assimilative frame- the natural patterns of climate variabil- interactions. Recent models can work has led to more complete ity. For example, to what extent can provide planetary-scale simulations of depictions of the climate system. We anthropogenic climate-change forcing some important biological compo- need more capabilities in this area and on the Asian monsoon be understood nents of the ecosystems. Thus, we an increase in activities to refine in terms of the frequency of occur- should now test hypotheses and details such as model and observation rence of the main patterns of mechanisms linking the physical forc- intraseasonal and interannual variabil- ing and biological processes by ity of monsoon activity? Similarly,

56 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 57

how is the decadal mode associated with the Sahel drought influenced by anthropogenic forcing? To what extent do the models to be used in IPCC AR4 describe satisfactorily the coupled dynamics of ENSO and how will the frequency of ENSO be influenced by anthropogenic forcing?

In addition, for prediction of longer time-scale (e.g. decadal) variability, more systematic numerical diagnostics and experimentation are required while we also develop nowcasts and explore experimental predictions of important indices. The ocean continues to be an important focus of CLIVAR. We must exploit fully the developing observation system and push forward with improved models and coupled systems to characterize more fully the changes in ocean circulation, climate-critical processes, ocean intransitivity, changes in carbon uptake, and sea level. Differences in model feedbacks in climate-change integrations are a significant limiting factor in developing improved coupled climate models. The fidelity of key processes leading to these differences needs to be addressed. Finally, while it is gratifying to note the many applications of CLIVAR research, it is apparent that integrating climate predictions into decision-making systems is a key to more success in this area.

57 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 58

are inextricably intertwined over a large range of space- and time-scales from boundary-layer turbulence to Water and global climate change. Recognizing the pressing requirement to better understand and predict these complex energy cycles: International GEWEX Project Office, processes and their interactions, the Silver Spring, Maryland, USA World Climate Research Programme E-mail: [email protected] investigating (WCRP) launched the Global Energy Web: http://www.gewex.org/igpo.html and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) in 1990. GEWEX leads WCRP’s stud- the links ies of the dynamics and thermo- participated in GEWEX activities and dynamics of the atmosphere, the more than 20 special issues of atmosphere’s interactions with the refereed papers were produced. Earth’s surface (especially over land), and the global water cycle. By virtue of Understanding the role of water in the this central role, GEWEX connects climate system is a priority for WCRP with other WCRP projects, including and GEWEX. As vapour, water is the the Climate Variability and Predicta- Earth’s strongest and most plentiful bility (CLIVAR) project, the Strato- greenhouse gas. Clouds also have an spheric Processes and their Role in important feedback role in the climate Climate project, and the Climate and system and, depending on their Cryosphere (CliC) project. Further- composition, spatial distribution and more, WCRP’s co-sponsors, WMO, altitude, may enhance or diminish the International Council for Science climate-change effects. Feedback and the Intergovernmental Oceano- influences also come from land- graphic Commission of UNESCO, surface states determined by soil provide GEWEX access to researchers moisture and vegetation, which By S. Sorooshian1, R. Lawford2, in both the academic and governmen- controls the partitioning of incoming P. Tr y 2, W. Rossow3, J. Roads4, tal sectors. solar radiation into radiative, sensible, J. Polcher5, G. Sommeria6, R. Schiffer2 latent (evaporation) and ground-heat fluxes and precipitation into runoff and GEWEX: Phases I and II infiltration. The cycle is closed by evapotranspiration from the land and Introduction The first phase of GEWEX (1990-2002) evaporation from the ocean. Under- focused on the development of standing, characterizing and closing The Earth’s climate fluctuates and analysis tools and models, using both the global water and energy changes both regionally and globally. operational and research satellites, Inevitably, this is reflected in the vari- regional analyses of continental scale ability and change of Earth's water basins, and process studies to support GEWEX Phases I and II budget and its complex and dynamic the development of parameterizations energy balance with the Sun. Pro- of feedback processes (relating to cesses controlling the transports, clouds and land) for global climate GEWEX Phase II (2003-2013) transformations and exchanges of models. During Phase I, more than emphasizes the full exploitation of heat and water in the climate system 1 500 scientists from over 35 countries the understanding and tools from Phase I (1990-2002), along with 1 University of California, Irvine, USA increased reliance on upgraded 2 International GEWEX Project Office, Silver Spring, USA models and assimilation systems 3 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA and new environmental satellite 4 University of California, San Diego, USA systems to produce even greater 5 Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique du Centre national de la recherche scien- tifique (CNRS), Paris, France contributions to climate science. 6 WMO/WCRP

58 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 59

budgets have been a major focus for activities to hydrology programmes, such the GEWEX Modelling and Prediction GEWEX research. as those of the International Association Panel addressed clouds, land- of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). atmosphere interactions, and, more This agenda has placed GEWEX on the recently, boundary-layer processes. leading edge of science, which is During Phase I, GEWEX activities The radiation projects, coordinated by directed at bringing the hydrology, included: (a) global dataset develop- the GEWEX Radiation Panel (GRP), land-surface, and atmospheric science ment; (b) process studies; and (c) developed global data products and communities together through process model development support and scientific understanding related to the studies in order to show the impor- modelling studies. In order to focus global distribution and variability of tance of understanding soil moisture/ activities and to provide for better clouds, water vapour, aerosols, atmosphere and cloud/radiation inter- coordination, a programmatic struc- surface radiation and precipitation. actions and their parameterization ture was adopted in 1995 that set within prediction models. Also, by goals for GEWEX activities in three producing or fostering the production separate areas, namely radiation, GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel of global datasets to validate predictive hydrometeorology, and modelling and (GHP) models, GEWEX is ready to assess prediction. The hydrometeorology whether the global water cycle has activities, coordinated through the GHP efforts are directed at demon- been undergoing significant changes GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel, strating skill in predicting changes in in the past two decades. GEWEX has focused on the coupling of the land water resources and soil moisture on also actively engaged and benefited and the atmosphere and hydrological time-scales up to seasonal and annual the water resource community. As processes at the continental and as an integral part of the climate shown in Figure 1, GEWEX plays a mesoscales. Modelling and related system. It also focuses on building critical role in relating WCRP prediction process studies coordinated through upon distributed process studies in the GEWEX Continental Scale Experi- ments (CSEs) as well as the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Water-resources Period (CEOP) effort initiated by the CLIVAR: management agencies GHP in order to coordinate globally the global models CSE observations and modelling Water-resources efforts (Lawford et al., 2004). Coupling Coupled applications of the land-atmosphere has been a ocean-atmosphere models central strategy for the GEWEX CSEs and five major continental-scale field campaigns have been underway for more than a decade to provide new

Mesoscale process understanding and improved models model representation in the Amazon, Baltic Sea, Mississippi and MacKenzie Hydrological routeing River Basins, and four areas in eastern models Asia (Thailand, Tibet, Siberia and eastern China). New CSE initiatives have subsequently been developed for Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfers basins in Australia, the La Plata Basin of South America and, most recently, western Africa. The locations of the GEWEX: regional models CSEs are shown in Figure 2.

National Hydrological Services, Through new hydrometeorological WMO, IAHS data, models, and analyses, the GHP Figure 1 — Role of different international and national programmes and agencies in has demonstrated the critical impor- addressing climate prediction and water-resources management issues (Figure: tance of land-surface interactions, S. Sorooshian) soil-moisture measurements and the

59 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 60

monsoon patterns and regional water Baltic Sea Experiment resources. The scientific strategy of Mackenzie GEWEX (BALTEX) Study (MAGS) GAME includes monitoring by satellites and in situ surface observations, process studies based on the four regional experiments located in distinctive climate regions (tropics, sub-tropics, Tibetan Plateau and GEWEX Americas GEWEX Asian Prediction Project (GAPP) Monsoon Experiment Siberia) and modelling of hydrometeo- (GAME) rological processes in the climate system. Large Scale African Monsoon Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia Multidisciplinary Analysis (LBA) (AMMA) Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) La Plata Basin Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) (LPB) BALTEX, which covers the Baltic Sea and its drainage basin, has explored Figure 2 — Continental scale areas included in the GEWEX Hydrometeorology Programme and modelled the mechanisms determining the space and time variability of application of regional and global high- in 1995 to take advantage of the energy and water budgets over the resolution precipitation data. extensive meteorological and hydro- BALTEX region, which covers roughly Furthermore, major new land-surface logical networks that existed and were 20 per cent of the European continent. scheme upgrades have resulted in being upgraded there. The motivation The experiment has analysed large improved regional to global prediction for the GCIP came from the recogni- seasonal, interannual and regional capability. The development of this tion of the need to close regional variations in climate and episodic new interdisciplinary relationship of water and energy budgets and to hydrometeorological events in the the hydrological and atmospheric improve parameterization of land- basin that have produced flooding in sciences with a focus on coupled land- atmosphere interactions and densely populated areas and have led surface-atmosphere interactions led to land-surface hydrology in climate to important ecological changes in the a large number of new research models. Other basins were soon Baltic Sea. papers and helped to initiate the established as CSEs after the adoption American Meteorological Society’s of the GCIP in order to study coupled Journal of Hydrometeorology. In brief, hydrometeorology over diverse Mackenzie GEWEX Study (MAGS) regional data and modelling have climatic and political regions. The proved to be very effective in improving success of the GCIP subsequently MAGS is a multidisciplinary project the understanding of local processes resulted in an expansion of activities that is undertaking research to under- and led to suggested approaches to as part of the GEWEX Americas stand and model the response of the improve current regional and global Prediction Project (GAPP). Studies of energy and water cycle in northern models, which have difficulties simu- the North American Monsoon System Canada to climate variability and lating diurnal and surface-subsurface in GAPP have promoted closer link- change; to define the impacts of its hydrological processes. ages between GEWEX and CLIVAR in atmospheric and hydrologic processes monsoon research. and feedbacks on the regional and global climatic systems; and to apply GEWEX Continental-scale these predictive capabilities to climate, International Project (GCIP) GEWEX Asian Monsoon water resources, and environmental Experiment (GAME) issues in the cold regions. MAGS iden- The GCIP in the Mississippi River tified sublimation in blowing snow Basin was the first international proj- GAME research has been directed at as one of the main causes for the ect of its size to bring together the understanding the role of the Asian “missing surface water storage.” hydrological and meteorological monsoon in the Earth’s climate Furthermore, MAGS scientists quanti- science communities for a common system and to improve the simulation fied evaporative losses from large research goal. The GCIP was launched and seasonal prediction of Asian northern lakes and improved under-

60 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 61

standing and model representation of initiative (ISLSCP II) produced datasets Phase I components runoff processes in the northern at spatial resolution of 1° to 0.5° and regions. Along with GAME-Siberia, 0.25° for the period 1986-1995. The principal Phase I components of MAGS has strengthened the links GMPP include the GEWEX Cloud between GEWEX and CliC. GHP has mounted several global proj- Study System and Global Land- ects that integrate studies and Atmosphere System Study with its activities in all the CSEs. These activi- primary subprojects: the Project for Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere ties include the Water and Energy Intercomparison of Land-Surface Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) Budget Studies (WEBS) and the Water Parameterization Schemes and the Resources Applications Project Global Soil Wetness Project. GMPP The hydrometeorological aspects of (WRAP). GHP also coordinates studies have reduced uncertainties in LBA have been directed at under- GEWEX-related research with global the understanding and simulation of standing the role of tropical forests projects, including the Coordinated key water-cycle variables through the and the consequences of deforesta- Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) application of Phase I observations and tion for regional energy and water and the International Association of land-surface and cloud-process para- budgets. Phase I field experiments, Hydrologic Sciences Project for meterizations derived through regional modelling, and analyses showed a Ungauged Basins, global data centres, studies and model intercomparisons. 44 per cent imbalance of the water including the Global Precipitation cycle in the Amazon basin. Amongst Climatology Centre and the Global The GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary the many important findings, LBA Runoff Data Centre, and international Layer Study was formed in 1999 to studies determined the transport of agencies, including the International study how the interactions of the land moisture from Amazonia to southern Atomic Energy Agency. Its activities surface and the boundary cloud layer Brazil via the low-level jet east of the help to coordinate and disseminate are mediated through the atmospheric Andes and quantified the interannual hydrological results to the international boundary layer. variability of the Amazon Basin as a hydrological community. source/sink of carbon dioxide and moisture based on an assessment of GEWEX Cloud Study System carbon sequestration in tropical forest GEWEX Modelling and Prediction (GCSS) environments during ENSO events. Panel (GMPP) GCSS has carried out studies that GMPP contributes to the global support the development of new International Satellite Land Surface modelling of the processes that physically-based cloud parameteriza- Climatology Project (ISLSCP) control the global energy and water tions using cloud-resolving models of budget and demonstrates the value different cloud system types for ISLSCP initially focused on field exper- of predicting the variability of this numerical weather prediction and iments but more recently has cycle and its response to climate forc- climate models: marine boundary-layer undertaken the development of inter- ing with a particular emphasis on clouds, Cirrus, extra-tropical layer disciplinary datasets. These field cloud and land-surface process repre- clouds, tropical deep convection and experiments included the First ISLSCP sentation. The goal of GMPP research polar clouds. GCSS investigates these Field Experiment (FIFE) and the is to demonstrate the capability to cloud types with a combined analysis Boreal Ecosystems-Atmosphere Study predict water storage and runoff over of a wide range of models: from (BOREAS). Subsequently, ISLSCP continental regions, as an element of turbulent-eddy-resolving models to launched two interdisciplinary data seasonal-to-interannual climate pre- cloud-resolving and regional-scale collections to develop co-registered dictability, and to demonstrate the models to single-column and general interdisciplinary Earth science land capability to predict the radiation circulation models used for weather datasets for variables needed by budget and fluxes as an element of forecasting and climate in addition to a modellers for coupled land-atmos- decadal-to-centennial climate variability wide range of in situ, surface, and phere modelling. The first co-located and response to changes in external satellite remote-sensing observations. 1 × 1° observational datasets covered forcing factors (Chahine, 1997). a two-year period and have been used Tools for conducting these studies have widely in research and education. been gathered on a linked set of The second data collection Websites, the main one being

61 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 62

the GCSS Data Integration for Model Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) and The GMPP facilitates the transfer Evaluation. These activities are leading now through GLASS, the development of knowledge about models and model- not only to improved cloud parameteri- of improved land-surface models has ling techniques to operations through zations but also to the implementation of been coordinated at the process level. an annual joint meeting with the new, more focused field experiments Subsequently, the Global Soil Wetness WMO Commission for Atmospheric and advances in the use of combined Project (GSWP) carried out intercom- Science/Joint Scientific Committee sets of surface and satellite-based active parisons of land-surface models on the Working Group on Numerical sensors. global scale. More generally, GLASS Experimentation. initiated within the community the tran- GCSS study results have supported sition for land-surface parameterizations improved understanding of the effects bound to an atmospheric model to land- GEWEX Radiation Panel (GRP) of the three-dimensional structure of surface models. PILPS and GLASS have clouds on radiative fluxes, the interac- led to the accelerated development of Efforts of the GRP are directed tion of clouds with the marine surface LSMs by model and data intercompar- towards determining the diabatic heat- and atmospheric boundary layer, the isons for different climate regimes. ing of the atmosphere and surface by organization and distribution of precip- radiative, sensible and latent energy itation in tropical convective com- The evaluation of simulated soil exchanges with accuracy sufficient to plexes, and the character and evolu- wetness and precipitation predictions diagnose the processes influencing tion of Cirrus and polar clouds. in ensembles of models within GSWP variations of the surface and atmos- and the Global Land Atmosphere phere from weather to decadal climate Coupling Experiment has raised the scales. GRP projects analyse long- Global Land-Atmosphere System awareness of the community to the term, global satellite observations that Study (GLASS) intrinsic limitation of LSMs to produce are supported by key, high-quality, observable quantities. For example, long-term, in situ measurements that GLASS seeks to improve our under- coupled LSMs and global climate are used to diagnose the causes of standing of, and capability to simulate, models have been assessed in terms forced and unforced climate variations surface processes from the plot scale of their sensitivity to soil moisture and (Rossow et al., 2005). The GRP stud- to the global scale by multi-institutional ocean sea-surface temperatures, ies foster improvements in radiative experiments of both stand-alone land- which can greatly affect their ability to transfer models used in weather and surface models (LSMs) and coupled simulate climate predictability. GLASS climate models and in the analysis of land-atmosphere models on both the also developed a critical set of stan- satellite- and surface-based remote- local (point, plot and catchment) and dards for the exchange of forcing data sensing observations. large (continental to global) scales. to facilitate modelling studies using Through multi-model experiments, land-surface models. The GRP projects have developed 15- GLASS confronts the hypothesis under 25 year global data products which the LSMs have been developed quantifying the variability of radiative and thus advance the community’s Energy and water cycles of climate fluxes, clouds, water vapour, aerosols, knowledge of their capabilities. The precipitation and turbulent fluxes at goal of GLASS is to incorporate Radiative fluxes the ocean’s surface and are working to improved understanding of the physi- develop more advanced products. All cal processes at the land surface into these data products are available and global models and to identify and are being used to study recent climate

understand the important components Atmospheric variations associated with volcanic Clouds of land-atmosphere interaction. circulation eruptions and El Niño-Southern Water Oscillation cycles by quantifying all the vapour interactions illustrated in Figure 3. A Project for Land-Surface reconstruction by the Surface Parameterization Schemes and Radiation Budget project of the global Global Soil Wetness Project Evaporation radiation budget using GRP and other precipitation global data products has achieved Initially through the Project for Figure 3 — Dominant atmospheric linkages a more accurate quantification of Intercomparison of Land-Surface in the global energy and water budgets the role of clouds in partitioning

62 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 63

60˚60 90˚90 120˚120 150˚150 180˚180 210˚210 240˚240 270˚270 300˚300 330˚330 0 30˚30 60˚ 90˚90 Climatology Centre, a data centre that is linked with GRP precipitation studies, has compiled an extensive 60˚60 collection of surface precipitation gauge data and analyses. Both these initiatives 30˚30 are key elements of the Global Climate Observing System. 0˚0 In preparation for Phase II of GEWEX, -30˚-30 the GRP has an ongoing project, known as the Intercomparison of

-60˚-60 Radiation Codes in Climate Models, to foster significant development of radiative transfer codes in all atmos- -90˚-90 pheric general circulation models and a working group to develop a coordi- 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 (mm/year) nated approach for the reduction and Figure 4 — Annual average precipitation 1988-1997: the Coordinated Enhanced Observing analysis of combinations of atmos- Period (CEOP) aims at developing a global network of pilot joint meteorological-hydrological pheric profiling instruments (radars, stations and makes use of the huge amounts of Earth observing satellite data available lidars and sodars) from a worldwide today. (Source: GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project) network of long-term monitoring sites. In addition, the GRP is working with other GEWEX activities to develop an the planetary radiation budget among produce a detailed description of the advanced, comprehensive analysis of the atmosphere, ocean, land and global distribution of atmospheric the fluxes of energy and water cryosphere. water-vapour profiles resolving daily- between the land and atmosphere. to-decadal variations. The International Satellite Cloud Challenges Climatology Project has pioneered the The Global Aerosol Climatology cross-calibration, analysis and merger Project recently completed a system- To achieve its objectives in Phase II of measurements from the inter- atic analysis of year-to-year variations (see box overleaf), GEWEX will national constellation of weather of aerosols that is now being merged develop and apply a wide range of satellites to produce the first global with an analysis of the associated modelling tools ranging from global quantitative description of the physical variations of cloud microphysical climate models to regional and properties of clouds resolving diurnal- properties. In addition, the first mesoscale models, and will evaluate to-decadal variations. comprehensive compilation of in situ downscaling methods suitable for the ocean surface flux measurements was smaller spatial and temporal scales The Global Precipitation Climatology produced by the SeaFlux project. generally associated with hydrological Project has produced the first globally models used in local water-resource complete determination of precipita- These efforts have fostered improve- management. tion resolving five-day-to-decadal ments in global satellite-based variations by the analysis and merger products, providing turbulent fluxes of Another primary element of Phase II is of measurements from the interna- heat, water, and momentum resolving the Coordinated Enhanced Observing tional constellation of weather daily-to-decadal variations. The global Period (CEOP). The first phase of this satellites and in situ measurements. satellite observation analysis projects experiment (CEOP I) is described in are supported by reference networks Koike (2004). CEOP II will focus on the The Global Water Vapour Project established by GRP and data centres. development of a two-year dataset of conducted a pilot study that pioneered For example, the development of the in situ, satellite and model data for the the merger of water-vapour measure- Baseline Surface Radiation Network period of 2003-2004 to support ments from the international has led to reductions in measurement research objectives in the climate constellation of weather satellites and uncertainties of more than a factor prediction and monsoon system in situ atmospheric soundings to of two. The Global Precipitation studies. GEWEX also takes the lead on

63 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 64

behalf of WCRP in the Integrated References: GEWEX Phase II Global Water Cycle Observations objectives theme of the Integrated Global CHAHINE, M.J., 1997: GEWEX strategies Observing Strategy Partnership. In that and goals are affirmed by the Joint • Produce consistent research regard, CEOP has been endorsed as Science Committee, GEWEX quality data sets complete with the first element of the new Integrated Newsletter, 7 (3), p.2. error descriptions of the Earth’s Global Water Cycle Observation energy budget and water cycle theme. GEWEX also will contribute to KOIKE, T., 2004: The Coordinated and their variability and trends the Global Water System Project Enhanced Observing Period—an initial on interannual to decadal time within the Earth System Science step for integrated global water cycle scales, and for use in climate Partnership framework. In addition, observation. WMO Bulletin 53 (2). system analysis and model research projects in GEWEX Phase II development and validation will be supportive of WCRP’s new LAWFORD, R.G., R. STEWART, J. ROADS, strategy, the Coordinated Observation H.-J. ISEMER, M. MANTON, J. MARENGO, • Enhance the understanding of and Prediction of the Earth System. T. YASUNARI, S. BENEDICT, T. KOIKE and how energy and water cycle Readers wishing to follow the progress S. WILLIAMS, 2004: Advancing global processes function and quantify of GEWEX or to access the wide range and continental scale hydrometeorol- their contribution to climate of data and data products available are ogy: Contributions of the GEWEX feedbacks invited to visit the GEWEX home page Hydrometeorology Panel, Bulletin of (www.gewex.org). the American Meteorological Society, • Determine the geographical 85 (12). and seasonal characteristics of the predictability of key water Acknowledgements ROSSOW, W.B., B.E. CARLSON, and energy cycle variables over P. W. S TACKHOUSE, B.A. WIELICKI and land areas and through collabo- The successes and progress reported here Y-C ZHANG, 2005: Implications and rations with the wider WCRP would not have been possible without the opportunities suggested by long-term community determine the major contributions and data services of the changes of radiative fluxes at the predictabiity of energy and US National Aeronautics and Space surface and top of the atmosphere. water cycles on a global basis Administration, the US National Oceanic and (Submitted to the Bulletin of the Atmospheric Administration, the Japan American Meteorological Society in • Develop better seasonal predic- Aerospace Exploration Agency, the German October 2004). tions of water and energy cycle Association of Natural Resources, the variability through improved European Space Agency, the European parameterizations encapsulating Organisation for the Exploitation of hydrometeorological processes Meteorological Satellites, the European and feedbacks for atmospheric Commission, the Meteorological Service of circulation models Canada, and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. • Undertake joint activities with A number of other national and international operational hydrometeorologi- agencies and programmes have also cal services and hydrological contributed data and infrastructure to the research programmes to project. Also, the authors would like to thank demonstrate the value of new Dr Bisher Imam, Ms Dawn Erlich and Ms GEWEX prediction capabilities, Carolyn Serey for their help in preparing the datasets and tools for assessing figures and finalizing the text for this article. the consequences of global change

64 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 65

Programme (WCRP). The major efforts of M. Geller and M.-L. Chanin, the first From ozone Co-Chairs of the SPARC Project, were critical to final success.

hole to Although depletion of ozone in the stratosphere had been an issue of chemical interest in research for more than a decade, discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole in 1985 added enormous climate impetus to this field of investigation. Understanding the chemistry and SPARC Office, Toronto, Ontario, Canada dynamics of the ozone hole, and of E-mail: [email protected] prediction Web: http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/ stratospheric ozone more generally, SPARC/ was recognized as a scientifically challenging issue, as well as one of great concern for human health. In his coupling could influence the tropo- Banquet response for the Nobel Prize sphere as well. In addition, recognition in Chemistry (see SPARC Newsletter that the signal of climate change was No.6. on the SPARC Website sensitive to the composition and struc- (http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto. ture of the upper-troposphere/lower- ca/SPARC), Prof. F Sherwood Rowland stratosphere region underlined the drew attention to the signing of the need for a programme of research Montreal Protocol in 1989 as recogni- directed toward understanding the tion of the great importance to be role of the stratosphere in the climate attached to monitoring and control of system. It was also clear that, to be gaseous emissions to the atmos- successful, this programme would phere. Many important national have to combine a wide range of disci- programmes were set up in response plines and expertise and fully to this. recognize the key role of atmospheric

By N. McFarlane (SPARC International Although depletion of stratospheric Project Office), A. Ravishankara ozone was, at first, considered as We now know that ozone is (NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, being somewhat distinct from climate- Boulder, USA) and A O'Neill change issues, it had become increas- subject to transformation by (University of Reading, UK) ingly clear that the future evolution of long-lived chemicals, both the ozone layer and its eventual recov- natural and man-made, ery were part of the broader story of Stratospheric Processes and their climate change associated with released at the Earth's Role in Climate (SPARC) Project— increasing concentrations of radiatively surface, and substantial a short history and chemically active substances in reductions in its the atmosphere as a result of human The SPARC project came about over a activities. The critical role of such concentration could have a period of years through the efforts of a substances in the chemistry of ozone strongly deleterious effect community of scientists, first to in the Antarctic stratospheric winter upon mankind and upon the formulate its central goals and then to polar vortex, remote from their source have it accepted by the main interna- regions, is in itself indicative of the rest of the biosphere. tional scientific organizations. A importance of transport and exchange (F. Sherwood Rowland, number of scientists were involved in between the troposphere and strato- Nobel Prizewinner for the long process which led to the sphere on time- scales ranging from recognition of SPARC as a project of weeks to years. It was becoming Chemistry, 1995) the World Climate Research evident, however, that this dynamical

65 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 66

Major foci of the early SPARC Programme from above and below”. The relevant Working Panel led by M. Geller and Stratospheric indicators of climate change M.-L. Chanin had a large influence on the scientific content of SPARC. It Goal: to detect trends in stratospheric constituents, physical properties and included the issue of “Solar variability processes, and included particular emphasis on the following topics: effects on the environment” under the leadership of K. Labitzke. This issue • Detection of stratospheric temperature trends was picked up later by SPARC and has remained a theme of joint interest • Detection of trends in the vertical distribution of ozone between SCOSTEP and SPARC.

• Compilation of a water-vapour climatology and detection of long-term During the same period, the role of the changes International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) in the IGBP was • Stratospheric aerosol climatology and trend being discussed. As a member of the first SSC of IGBP, M.-L. Chanin under- Stratospheric processes and their relation to climate took the task of finding a way to This initiative dealt with key physical, chemical, and dynamical processes of include the stratosphere in the IGBP importance for understanding and modelling the role of the stratosphere in Programme. Although these efforts the climate system. These were dealt with under the following topics: did not succeed as planned, they were eventually rewarded with the accept- • Stratosphere-troposphere exchange and dynamics and transport in the ance of the SPARC project as part of lower stratosphere and upper troposphere the WCRP in March 1992.

• The Quasi-biennial Oscillation and its possible role in coupling the The first main meeting of the SPARC stratosphere and troposphere Project took place in September 1992 in Carqueiranne, France, as a NATO • Gravity-wave processes and their parametrization Advanced Study Institute. It was organ- ised by M.-L. Chanin and included a • Chemistry and microphysics in the lower stratosphere and upper group of lecturers who played a major troposphere role in the definition of SPARC priorities (Initial Review of Objectives and Modelling stratospheric processes and trends and their effects on Scientific Issues, 1993). climate This initiative emphasizes large-scale modelling and comparison of models with observations. Two components of this initiative which have produced Achievements key achievements and ongoing activities are GRIPS (GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC) project and Compilation of a The SPARC project has played a major Stratospheric Reference Climatology. role in highlighting the importance of stratospheric processes in the climate system. This has been achieved by an approach which has been: firstly, to be chemistry in climate change. By the dynamics, which characterize the responsive to the need for scientific early 1990s, this had already received tropopause region and the stratosphere. input to international scientific assess- full recognition within the International ments; secondly, to identify manageable Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Two main organizations prepared the projects where coordination at interna- Project of the International Geosphere- way for the recognition of the role of tional level can make a difference; and Biosphere Programme (IGBP). The the stratosphere in the climate. The thirdly, to have clear deliverables for issues covered by IGAC, however, Scientific Committee on Solar- each project, such as scientific reviews dealt exclusively with the troposphere Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) which summarize the state of knowl- and did not include the complex interac- included in its programme a topic enti- edge and facilitate and stimulate new tions of chemistry, radiation and tled “Middle atmosphere response directions for research.

66 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 67

Wave-driven

30 extra-tropical Large-scale ascent Large-scale subsidence “pump”

100

Pressure (mb) 400 380 Some Cumulonimbus 350 clouds 330 penetrate the 300 stratosphere 300 Two-way exchange blocking anticyclones cut-off cyclones Figure 1 — The “Holton diagram” tropopause folds depicting the processes involved 1000 Pole Equator in stratosphere-troposphere Latitude exchange

Figure 1, taken from the widely cited paper of Holton et al. (1995), is an elaboration of an earlier one in the report by P. Haynes on the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Stratosphere-Troposphere exchange (Cambridge, 6-9 September 1993) published in SPARC Newsletter No. 2. In this figure, the tropopause is shown by the thick line. Thin lines are isentropic or constant potential temperature surfaces (labelled in degrees Kelvin). The heavily shaded region is the “lowermost stratosphere” where isentropic surfaces span the tropopause and isentropic exchange by tropopause folding occurs. The region above the 380 K surface is the “overworld”, in which isentropes lie entirely in the stratosphere. Light shading in the overworld denotes wave-induced forcing (the extra-tropical “pump”). The wiggly double-headed arrows denote meridional transport by eddy motions, which include tropical upper-tropospheric troughs and their cut-off cyclones as well as their mid-latitude counterparts including folds. Not all eddy transports are shown and the wiggly arrows are not meant to imply any two-way symmetry. The broad arrows show transport by the global-scale circulation, which is driven by the extra-tropical pump. This global-scale circulation is the primary contribution to exchange across isentropic surfaces (e.g. the ~380 K surface) that are entirely in the overworld.

The early SPARC programme regard to stratospheric processes and, stratosphere and upper troposphere potentially, also public awareness and are closely linked to upward propaga- The early SPARC programme was policy in important ways. tion and dissipation of waves. Internal organized around three major foci: gravity waves, typically unresolved by stratospheric indicators of climate The now famous Holton diagram large-scale numerical models, are an change; stratospheric processes and (Figure 1) encapsulates many of the important component of the wave their relation to climate; and the ideas that have inspired SPARC field. Parametrization of the effects of modelling of stratospheric processes activities and related research for the gravity-wave dissipation is now recog- and trends and their effects on climate past decade. It illustrates schematically nized as a key ingredient in successful (see box). how upward propagation and dissipa- modelling of the large-scale circulation tion of a broad spectrum of waves of the stratosphere. Space does not permit a detailed play a significant role in the dynamical discussion, but there have been many coupling of the stratosphere and This challenging task motivated the notable achievements within each of the troposphere. The Quasi-Biennial SPARC initiative on Gravity Wave these foci and it is worthwhile drawing Oscillation and key features of the Processes and Parametrization attention to some that have broadly mean meridional circulation, transport (GWPP). A number of important activi- influenced thinking and research in and exchange processes in the ties have been organized under the

67 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 68

panel (Figure 3(a)) 1 Potential energy (J/kg) 50 hPa 80 depicts zonal mean decadal temperature 0 changes at three 60 levels in the lower -1 stratosphere, while Berlin GSFC Trend (k/decade) Trend -2 Reanal RAOB 40 Figure 3(b) illustrates CPC Angell the vertical profile Russia and uncertainty -3 20 -90 -60 -30 300 60 90 (dashed lines enclose Latitude the two standard 1 100 hPa deviation range) at 0 0 middle latitudes in Latitude the northern hemi- -0.5 -20 sphere. This figure is -1 taken from the Berlin GSFC paper “Stratospheric (k/decade) Trend -1.5 RAOB Reanal -40 temperature trends: Angell -2 observations and -90 -60 -30 300 60 90 -60 model simulations” Latitude 1 (Ramaswamy ., Satellite J FMAMJ J ASOND et al Low stratosphere 2001). A result of a 0 Month SPARC collaboration, Figure 2 — Features of the gravity-wave climatology of the lower this paper was -0.5 stratosphere awarded WMO’s -1 Norbert Gerbier- Trend (k/decade) Trend -1.5 auspices of this initiative. These MUMM International Award in 2003. Nash include field campaigns (e.g. the MSU -2 DAWEX campaign; Hamilton, 2003), The increased cooling with height shown -90 -60 -30 300 60 90 workshops (e.g. the Chapman in the figure is consistent with model Latitude Conference on Gravity Wave simulations, suggesting that changes in Figure 3(a) — Annual and zonal mean Processes and Parameterization, radiatively active trace-gas concentrations decadal temperature trends, 1974-1994 Hamilton, 2004) and the accumulation are major contributors to the observed and analysis of high-resolution cooling. 45N

radiosonde data from the Meteo- 0.3 rological Services of several countries, In addition to documented changes in 55 50 under the aegis of WMO. Analysis of the generally well-mixed gases (CO2, 1 these data has enabled characteriza- CH4, N2O and chlorofluorocarbons), 45 3 tion of key features of the gravity- depletion of stratospheric ozone and 40 wave climatology in the lower strato- increases in water vapour are also 35 sphere. Figure 2 depicts the contributing factors. The globally aver- 10 Height (km)

Pressure (hPa) 30 meridional and seasonal dependence aged temperature changes observed 20 of the potential energy associated with in the lower stratosphere during the 30 25 50 20 gravity waves in the lower strato- past two decades are a robust feature 70 sphere, determined from the present in various observational data- 100 15

high-resolution data acquired and sets as is the corresponding change in 10 analysed by the scientists in the the column ozone. SPARC GWPP initiative. The contour -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0 1.0 labels are in J/kg. The vertical distribution of the trend in Trend (degree/decade) ozone is illustrated in Figure 4, taken Figure 3(b) — Mean vertical profile and Key findings with regard to temperature from the SPARC-IOC Assessment of uncertainty of the temperature trend, trends are illustrated in Figure 3. The first Trends in the Vertical Distribution of 1979-1994

68 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:28 Page 69

Ozone (SPARC Report No.1). The (a) sources of water vapour in the strato- trends depicted in this figure were 1 sphere. The observed increase in H2O Linear trend calculated using those derived from tropospheric methane over the past SAGE I-II, ozonesondes, SBUV and several decades may have Umkehr measurements. Combined CMDL 80-99, -40°N contributed to the stratospheric water 10 NRL 64-76, -39°N σ NOOA AL 78-98, 30°-45°N

uncertainties are shown as 1 (light Pressure (hPa) vapour trend but is insufficient to solid lines) and 2σ (dashed lines). The HALOE 93-99, 30°-35°N explain it. SAGE 87-90, 35-45°N combined trends and uncertainties are WVMS 93-97, -34°N MRF 50's-70's, 45°-51°N extended down to 10 km as shown by SPARC has taken keen interest in the the light dotted lines but the results coupling processes associated with 100 below 15 km should be viewed with -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 stratosphere-troposphere interactions. (b) ppmv/year caution. 1 One of its key successes has been to H2O Linear trend bring together dynamicists, specialists The increasing water-vapour trend is in atmospheric radiative transfer, illustrated in Figure 5 (SPARC Report chemists and microphysicists to CMDL 80-99, -40°N No. 2) in terms of the water vapour 10 NRL 64-76, -39°N address key research issues. The NOOA AL 78-98, 30°-45°N

mixing ratio linear change coefficient. Pressure (hPa) uncertainty concerning the water- HALOE 93-99, 30°-35°N Instruments, latitudes and valid time SAGE 87-90, 35-45°N vapour trend and mechanisms deter- WVMS 93-97, -34°N periods used are noted on the figure MRF 50's-70's, 45°-51°N mining it is one of a number of (error bars indicate the one standard important questions that relate to our deviation uncertainties on the coeffi- 100 understanding of key processes in the -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 cients from the linear regression ppmv/year UT/LS region. This region is where analysis). Panel (a) and Panel (b) are Figure 5 — Water vapour mixing ratio linear coupling between chemical, micro- identical with the exception of the change coefficient physical and dynamical processes is of HALOE time period used. Panel (a) great importance. Because of the long shows the HALOE linear change term associated with low temperatures in radiative and chemical time-scales, computed for 1993-1999, while Panel the tropical upper troposphere and this region is critical for climate sensi- (b) shows the HALOE linear change lower stratosphere (UT/LS), is consid- tivity and understanding. term computed for 1993-1997. This ered to be the most important in water vapour trend has important controlling the water-vapour concen- Modelling chemical and microphysical radiative implications and could be tration in the lower stratosphere. This processes is critical to success in contributing to warming in the tropo- mechanism is clearly evident in the climate prediction. This is the transi- sphere and at the surface. seasonal variation of water vapour in tion between the high ozone and low the tropical lower stratosphere derived water vapour regime of the middle The Brewer-Dobson dehydration mech- from seasonal cycle fits of HALOE stratosphere and the low ozone and anism, condensation and freezing measurements (Figure 6), character- high water-vapour regime in the tropo- ized by an elevated hygropause which sphere. Transport processes play a ascends with time and is now widely particularly strong role in determining 50 known as the “tropical tape recorder” the structure of this region and a key (Mote et al., 1996). role in determining abundances of 40 ozone in the troposphere. These In view of the downward temperature processes are also key to cloud 30 trend in the lower stratosphere, the formation and persistence and hetero- Altitude (km) increasing water-vapour trend geneous and multi-phase chemical 20 appears to be paradoxical. However, reactions. Because of the complexity uncertainties in measurements of and variety of chemical, physical and 10 water vapour are substantial, particu- dynamical processes within it, the -15.0 -12.5 -10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 larly in regions of low amounts, and UT/LS region is of interest to both Trend (% decade) make the trend rather uncertain. SPARC and IGAC. Figure 4 —Mean trends and uncertainties in Oxidation of methane, produced at the vertical distribution of ozone, northern the surface and transported into the In the late 1990s, therefore, as a first mid-latitudes, 1980-1996 stratosphere, is one of the main step, SPARC and IGAC began a joint

69 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 70

Figure 7 shows an example of 60 .3 chemistry-climate model predictions of Antarctic ozone changes to 2060 50 1 (from Austin et al., 2003). Although the models are driven by the same 3 imposed forcing changes, there are 40 substantial differences in both time evolution and interannual variability 10 among the models, and the reasons Height (km) 30 Pressure (hPa) for these differences are poorly understood. Evaluating the reasons for such 30 model sensitivities (in particular for 20 coupled chemistry-climate models) is 100 a crucial step forward for predicting future stratospheric change. This is Figure 6 — Seasonal variation of the water vapour mixing ratio over the Equator but an example of intercomparisons of simulations of the current climate and task on laboratory data of fundamental undertaking basic comparisons of of climate change that are of great chemical processes which interested models to studies of mechanisms. value in understanding and improving the two projects. This task produced Annual workshops have served as the the ability of models to predict future many successful workshops that focus for presenting progress in the climate. brought laboratory chemists together formal projects, as well as for present- with the field measurement and ing new results, as models have been Meaningful comparison of model modelling communities, and led to developed. Key results from GRIPS simulations with observations is two successful review papers, one on collaborations have been published in greatly facilitated by the availability of a the quantum yield of O(1D) in ozone journal articles. These include compar- reference climatology which docu- photolysis (Matsumi et al., 2002) and isons of simulations of key observable ments the observed means and one on atmospheric chemistry of small atmospheric variables from most of variability of basic atmospheric vari- peroxy radicals (Tyndal et al., 2001). the major modelling centres (Pawson ables that are predicted by models. This initial collaborative task was the et al., 2000) and documentation of The SPARC Reference Climatology forerunner of the SPARC-IGAC collab- other important features of model Group was established to update and orations on the Chemistry-Climate simulations such as the kinetic energy evaluate existing middle atmosphere Interactions theme of SPARC (see spectrum (Koshyk et al., 1999) and the (stratosphere and mesosphere) clima- “Future directions”). variability of precipitation and tropical tologies for GRIPS and other SPARC wave activity (Horinouchi et al., 2003). projects and activities. This led to Comprehensive global climate models publication of SPARC Report No. 3 (GCMs) are among the most important (December 2002), which provides a tools for understanding the role of the comprehensive comparison of middle stratosphere in the climate system 300 atmosphere climatologies.

and predicting climate change. Over TOMS the past two decades, rapid advances 250 UMETRAC Timely exchange of data between in computing technology and model- CCR/NIES participating scientists is critical for GISS ling expertise have resulted in the 200 successful collaboration. The SPARC development of a number of such Data Center (http://www.sparc. models, several of which include a 150 sunysb.edu/) was established in 1999 realistic middle atmosphere. to facilitate collaboration and related 100 research. Since its establishment, the Minimum total ozone (Dobson unit) total ozone Minimum The GRIPS project has become a 50 number and variety of datasets in its focus for collaboration among major 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 archives and available on line have modelling groups on model develop- Year increased rapidly. These include key ment and evaluation. It has evolved Figure 7 — Observed, simulated and reference data used in SPARC assess- through successive phases, from predicted Antarctic total ozone ments such as the Water Vapour

70 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 71

Assessment (WAVAS), as well as project on the penetration of ultravio- Determining the magnitude of natural other data such as high-resolution let radiation; and (e) to contribute to variability of key variables in key regions temperature and wind data from international planning and mission is critical to detection and attribution of radiosondes for selected years. planning. The above list is merely a long-term change. In many instances, subset of possible areas of collabora- the available observational record is not One of the hallmarks of SPARC has tion. For instance, much stronger links sufficiently long to evaluate the range been the anticipation of the needs of with the WCRP’s CLIVAR project are of natural variability. For example, the international assessments such as the essential on long-term climate variabil- major wintertime warming that WMO ozone assessment and the ity and predictability. occurred in the Antarctic stratosphere assessments of the Intergovern- in 2002 (WMO, 2002) was the first mental Panel on Climate Change Recently, SPARC has organized its recorded and abruptly reversed the (IPCC). This has been done through activities under three interlinked trend toward a colder longer-lasting timely workshops, development of themes to consolidate its contribu- polar vortex, clearly evident in the key issues before the assessments tions to climate prediction and to previous 20 years of observations (review articles and collaborative proj- make effective points of contact with (Baldwin et al., 2003). In contrast, ects) and providing the expertise other WCRP projects. The associated wintertime warmings in the Arctic (participation of SPARC scientists as questions posed within each theme, stratosphere are observed relatively co-authors, lead-authors, contributing though certainly not exhaustive, aim frequently. The observing of this rare authors and reviewers). This service is to identify primary foci for SPARC event in the Antarctic for the first time expected to continue in the future. activities, at least in the immediate underlines the difficulty of evaluating future. the full range of natural variability from the observational record alone. Future directions Detection, attribution and Evaluating the probability of such rare The progress of research and knowl- prediction of stratospheric events with the aid of ensembles of edge regarding stratospheric changes long simulations using global climate processes in the past decade, to a models is a possibility (Taguchi and significant degree under the auspices What are the past changes and vari- Yoden, 2002). Confidence in prediction of SPARC collaborations, has drawn ations in the stratosphere? and attribution will demand statistically attention to a number of issues that significant results based on large need to be addressed by collaborative How well can we explain past ensembles of integrations with numer- research activities in the near future. changes in terms of natural and ical models (or approaches that can be In view of this, new themes and anthropogenic effects? shown to be statistically equivalent). perspectives for the SPARC project The experience gained within the have been developed and have How do we expect the strato- GRIPS project is a basis for a future received the support of the WCRP. sphere to evolve in the future, and role of SPARC in coordinating experi- Collaboration with other international what confidence do we have in ments by different groups to facilitate projects is essential for promoting those predictions? meaningful comparison of results. SPARC science within these themes. To this end, the Joint Scientific This theme is a continuation, synthe- Committee of the WCRP has recog- sis and extension of earlier SPARC Stratospheric chemistry and nized that SPARC must play a leading themes on long-term variability and climate role in achieving a number of specific trends in the stratosphere. Future objectives: (a) to lead a collaboration work will emphasize attribution and How will stratospheric ozone and on chemistry-climate interactions with prediction. This will require a other constituents evolve? the IGAC project; (b) to focus on concerted, collaborative research issues raised by recent studies of the programme involving, in many How will changes in stratospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO); (c) to liaise instances, coupled chemistry-climate composition affect climate? with SCOSTEP on solar radiative forc- models. ing and temperature trends; (d) to What are the links between changes work with WMO’s Global in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation Atmosphere Watch (GAW) and tropospheric chemistry?

71 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 72

Key A strong motivation for this theme is VSLS - Very-short lived source gases that several recent observational stud- and organic intermediates XHal - Intermediate products and ies have suggested that a so-called 28 km inorganic halogen reservoirs XO - Halogen radiacals, X=Cl, Br, I Arctic Oscillation (or Northern Annular TTT - Thermal tropical tropopause Mode (NAM), with an equivalent TTL - Tropical tropopause layer STT - Secondary tropical tropopause Southern Annular Mode) is a dominant ExTL - Extra-tropical transition layer PBL - Planetary boundary layer component of large-scale variability in 20 km the atmosphere. The finding that anomalies in an AO index can some- times span the stratosphere- troposphere system has revivified the 11 km long-standing issue of stratosphere- troposphere coupling. In particular, the occasional downward propagation of 5 km anomalies from the stratosphere into the troposphere implies, with support 1-2 km from statistical analysis of the data, that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can enhance our ability to Winter Equator Summer predict aspects of the large-scale evolution of the troposphere, which would be of practical value for weather Figure 8 — Chemical and transport processes affecting very short-lived source gases and forecasting and climate prediction. organic intermediates This is depicted in Figure 9, which shows that alterations of the tropo- The latest assessment report of the of the impact of climate change and spheric circulation down to the surface IPCC identifies insufficient knowledge variations on the Earth system. may be associated with a weakening of the coupling and feedbacks Studying processes involved in the (red) or strengthening (blue) of the between atmospheric chemistry, the chemistry and dynamics of the tropical stratospheric vortex. The diagrams biosphere and the climate—and the tropopause layer (TTL) is an example show composites of the NAM index: consequent failure to represent the of the kind of activities being under- (a) composite of 18 weak vortex relevant processes adequately in taken in this theme. Some of these are events and (b) 30 strong vortex events climate prediction models—as serious depicted schematically in Figure 8 (Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001). scientific limitations. An interdiscipli- (Cox and Haynes, 2003; from Scientific Whether the state of the stratosphere nary approach must be adopted, Assessment of Ozone Depletion: influences the evolution of the tropo- involving laboratory measurements, 2002, WMO Global Ozone Research sphere in a causal sense (and if so, by field campaigns and numerical model- and Monitoring Report No. 47). what mechanisms and on what time- ling. Work under this theme will scales?) are key issues demanding involve strong collaboration between numerical experimentation. the SPARC and IGAC projects. As Stratosphere-troposphere coupling noted above, the UT/LS region is As has been the case hitherto to for where some of the scientific chal- What is the role of dynamical and SPARC foci, addressing the scientific lenges are most demanding. radiative coupling with the strato- questions of the new SPARC themes sphere in extended-range tropo- will require underpinning activities Clear understanding of the processes spheric weather forecasting and within such general areas as model that connect emissions (source, determining long-term trends in development, process studies and precursors) to abundances, and the tropospheric climate? supporting data analysis and archiving. processes that connect the abun- In many cases, facilitating these activi- dances to climate forcings are By what mechanisms do the strato- ties will require the setting-up (on a essential for an accurate prediction of sphere and troposphere act as a possibly temporary basis) of targeted the future climate and an assessment coupled system? working groups, some of which will

72 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 73

Composite of 18 weak vortex events numerical modelling. The Third SPARC 10 3 General Assembly (Victoria, Canada, (a) August 2004) highlighted the new 30 2 themes and brought forward new 100 results in a numbers of key areas that hPa will continue to receive concerted 300 attention from the SPARC community. 1000 (A report on the 3rd General Assembly is included in SPARC Newsletter -90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 No. 24 and expanded summary arti- Lag (days) cles based on key presentations within it will appear in future newsletters). Composite of 30 strong vortex events The General Assembly emphasized 10 (b) that, while our knowledge of the role 30 of the stratosphere in the climate system has advanced enormously, 100 hPa major uncertainties remain, especially

300 in the interaction of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Resolving 1000 these uncertainties will demand -90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 collaborative research that cuts across Lag (days) current WCRP projects.

Figure 9 — Downward propagation of anomalies from the stratosphere into the troposphere

have evolved from current SPARC useful information for upcoming References activities. assessments was the motor to include this activity as one of the supporting AUSTIN, J. D. SHINDELL, C. BRUHL, An example of such a new underpin- pillars of the SPARC programme M. DARNERIS, E. MANZINI, T. NAGASHIMA, ning activity is the comparison of themes. Concepts for this new activity P. N EWMAN, S. PAWSON, G. PITARI, chemistry-climate models through were developed at a workshop in E. ROZANOV, C. SCHNADT and process-oriented analysis and valida- Grainau, Germany, in November 2003. T.G. SHEPHERD, 2003: Uncertainties and tion. An important component of assessments of chemistry-climate several of the GRIPS workshops has Targeted working groups will also be models of the stratosphere, Atmos. been discussion of progress in needed to resolve a variety of issues Chem. Phys., 3, 1-27. coupled chemistry-climate models, concerned with additional atmospheric even though no formal assessment processes within the context of the BALDWIN, M., T. HIROOKA, A. O'NEILL and had been organized. Climate models main scientific themes. One of many S. YODEn, 2003: Major stratospheric increasingly include chemical compo- possible examples is the current warming in the southern hemisphere in nents and it is now well recognized uncertainty and lack of understanding 2002: dynamical aspects of the ozone that intercomparison and assessment of processes affecting the transport of hole split, SPARC Newsletter, 20, of the performance of these compo- water vapour from the troposphere to January 2003. nents is important for improved the stratosphere, which is needed to understanding of both the chemical account for apparent long-term vari- BALDWIN, M.P. and T.J. DUNKERTON, 2001: components and their underlying ability in water-vapour concentrations. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous global climate models and, ultimately, SPARC will contribute to resolving weather regimes, Science, 294, 581- for improved representations of these these uncertainties through scientific 584. processes in global climate models. assessments aimed at producing scientific review papers, and by HAMILTON, K., 2003: The Darwin Area Achievement of this goal as well as promoting and participating in observa- Wave Experiment (DAWEX), SPARC that of providing more scientifically tional campaigns and associated Newsletter, 20, 19-20.

73 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 74

HAMILTON, K., 2004: Report on the Results, Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 81, Chapman Conference on Gravity Wave 781-796. Processes and Parameterization, SPARC Newsletter, 23, 15-16. RAMASWAMY, V. M-L. CHANIN et.al., 2001: Stratospheric temperature trends: HOLTON, J.R., P.H. HAYNES, M.E. MCINTYRE, observations and model simulations, A.R. DOUGLASS, R.B. ROOD and L. PFISTER, Reviews of Geophysics, 39, 71-122. 1995: Stratosphere-troposphere exchange, Rev. Geophys., 33, 403-439. TAGUCHI, M. and S. YODEN, 2002: Internal interannual variations of the tropo- HORINOUCHI, T., S. PAWSON, K. SHIBATA, sphere-stratosphere coupled system in U. LANGEMATZ, E. MANZINI, M.A. GIORGETTA, a simple global circulation model. Part F. S ASSI, R.J. WILSON, K. HAMILTON, J. DE II: Millenium integrations. J. Atmos. GRANPRÉ and A.A. SCAIFE, 2003: Tropical Sci., 59, 3037-3050. cumulus convection and upward propa- gating waves in middle atmospheric TYNDALL, G. S., R. A. COX, C.GRANIER, GCMs, J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2765-2782. R. LESCLAUX, G.K. MOORTGAT, M.J. PILLING, A.R. RAVISHANKARA and KOSHYK, J.N., B.A. BOVILLE, K. HAMILTON, T.J. WALLINGTON, 2001: Atmospheric E. MANZINI and K. SHIBATA, 1999: The Chemistry of small organic peroxy radi- kinetic energy spectrum of horizontal cals, J. Geophys. Res., 106, motions in middle-atmosphere models, 12157-12182. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 27177-27190 WMO, 2002: Antarctic ozone hole splits in MATSUMI, Y., F.J. COMES, G. HANCOCK, two. Press Release No. 681. A. HOFZUMAHAUS, A.J. HYNES, M. KAWASAKI and A.R. RAVISHANKARA, 2002: J. Geophys. Res., 107, oid: 10.1029/2001JD000510.

MOTE, P.W., K.H. ROSENLOF, M.E. MCINTYRE, et al., 1996: An atmospheric tape recorder: The imprint of tropical tropopause temperatures on stratospheric water vapour, J. Geophys.Res., 103, (D8), 8651-8666.

PAWSON, S., K. KODERA, K. HAMILTON, T.G. SHEPHERD, S.R. BEAGLEY, B.A. BOVILLE, J.D. FARRARA, T.D.A. FAIRLIE, A. KITOH, W.A. LAHOZ, U. LANGEMATZ, E. MANZINI, D.H. RIND, A.A. SCAIFE, K. SHIBATA, P. SIMON, R. SWINBANK, L. TAKACS, R.J. WILSON, J.A. AL-SAADI, M. AMODEI, M. CHIBA, L. COY, J. DE GRANDPRÉ, R.S. ECKMAN, M. FIORINO, W.L. GROSE, H. KIODE, J.N. KOSHYK, D. LI, J. LERNER, J.D. MAHLMAN, N.A. MCFARLANE, C.R. MECHOO, A. MOLOD, A. O’NEILL, R.B. PIERCE, W.J. RANDEL, R.B. ROOD and F. WU, 2000: The GCM-Reality Interomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS): Scientific Issues and Initial

74 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 75

on the Earth's surface at all latitudes Frozen assets: (Figure 1) and is vital to us all. Without it, and the freezing and thawing processes that affect its characteris- the tics, the Earth’s climate would be very different and perhaps far less cryosphere’s hospitable for human life.

The “cryosphere” is defined as those CliC International Project Office, role in the regions of the Earth’s surface where c/o Norwegian Polar Institute, water exists in a frozen form. It 9296 Tromsø, Norway includes snow cover, sea, lake and E-mail: [email protected] climate Web: http://clic.npolar.no river ice, glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets and frozen ground, including system permafrost. Wherever these cryospheric components exist, they have a ice were to melt, it is estimated that profound effect on water, energy and sea-level would rise by about 70 m. chemical cycles. Snow and ice have Sea-ice formation and melting redistrib- relatively high albedo, reflecting incom- ute freshwater and salt in the ocean ing solar radiation away from the and drive important water mass trans- Earth’s surface much more efficiently formations that help to maintain global than the underlying land or water. thermohaline circulation and to venti- Snowfall in cold regions can lock up late the deep ocean. Permafrost and freshwater for many months of the frozen ground alter the fluxes of water, year, releasing it rapidly during the energy and gases between the land spring melt. Glaciers, ice caps and ice surface and the atmosphere and sheets can store water for hundreds or strongly influence land forms, hydrol- thousands of years and, if all this land ogy and vegetation.

Cryospheric research camp at 6 100 m, 29°N on the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau (Photo: V. Aizen)

By Chad Dick, Director, CliC International Project Office

Introduction

Everyone knows we can’t live without water, at least in its liquid form. But what about when it is frozen? For people living in or near the world’s cold regions, snow and ice can be important for sustaining a way of life. In contrast, for many in temperate latitudes, they may seem merely an inconvenience or occasionally a Figure 1 — Ice coring at 4 115 m, 49°N, in the Altai Mountains (in the Southern part of danger; while for those in the tropics Siberia). The cryosphere exists at all latitudes and there is an urgent need to collect ice cores they may seem remote, uninviting and from high-altitude, low-latitude glaciers before warming destroys the climate signals held in unimportant. But frozen water exists cold (polythermal) ice. (Photo: V. Aizen)

75 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 76

Temperature Climate System Study ((ACSYS), 1994- period to grow again the following 2003) and the ongoing (since 2000) winter, has reduced by a dramatic Absorbed solar radiation project Climate and Cryosphere (CliC), to 8.9 per cent per decade. This multi- examine the interactions of global year ice is generally thicker than Polar albedo climate and the Earth’s cryospheric first-year ice, which is the result of Snow/ice regions. only one winter’s freezing, so some reduction in ice thickness would be Reflected radiation expected as multi-year ice disappears. The Arctic Climate System Study Studies by Rothrock et al. (1999) and Ice and snow Solar + radiation (ACSYS) Wadhams and Davis (2000), however, found a thinning of more than 40 per The Arctic climate system consists of cent between submarine measure- four major elements: the ocean, the ments (ACSYS/CliC, 2002) made atmosphere, sea ice, and the land- between the 1950s and 1970s and based hydrological system. At the modern measurements from the beginning of 1994 the Arctic Climate 1990s. Not only was the magnitude of System Study (ACSYS) set out to thinning greater than expected but, study these four elements, their inter- remarkably for such a dynamic Figure 2 — Warming and cooling cycles in actions and the interactions of this system, no region was found where the snow and ice albedo feedback Arctic system with the rest of global the ice had increased in thickness. climate. Of particular interest were the In a changing climate, feedbacks and questions as to whether the Arctic Put together, this retreat and thinning amplification of climate signals will play was really as sensitive to increased indicate a major decrease in sea-ice a crucial role in the future of the Earth greenhouse gases as many climate volume, and would seem to be a clear system through their interaction with models suggested, and what the indication of important climate change. the cryosphere. For example, the consequences of Arctic climate Not all scientists were convinced, snow-ice/albedo feedback (Figure 2) change would be for the rest of the however. In a coupled atmosphere/ and the permafrost/greenhouse-gas globe. The decade-long project ocean/ice modelling study of fresh- amplification would both enhance any revealed many insights and a number water and energy balances in the initial warming. Indeed, many global of surprising and perhaps worrying Arctic Ocean, Holloway and Sou climate models predict that the Arctic results. Many of these were (2001; 2002) showed a similar pattern region will show the greatest presented at a final ACSYS conference of thinning in the central Arctic, where anthropogenic “greenhouse” warming, in St Petersburg, Russian Federation, the submarine measurements had largely because of the albedo feedback. in November 2003. been made, but a thickening of ice against the Canadian coast and north Despite these connections to the rest of of Greenland (Figure 3). the global climate system, the cryosphere Disappearing sea ice is still relatively poorly understood. Much With a much smaller net change shown of it is remote from major population A record low Arctic sea-ice extent, at by the model, this study suggested that centres, and its study can be difficult, least for the 25-year period of satellite the ice had moved due to changing dangerous and expensive. But without observation, occurred in September patterns of atmospheric pressure and understanding the cryosphere and the 2002, and was virtually matched in wind, rather than having melted away. climate interactions taking place in cold both 2003 and 2004. Since satellite The ACSYS Observation Products Panel regions, we cannot fully understand the monitoring began in 1979, sea-ice carried out a review of all results and global climate system, and therefore extent has reduced by approximately concluded that thinning had occurred, cannot predict climate changes as atmos- 2.3 per cent per decade. Over the particularly in summer, but that it was pheric greenhouse-gas concentrations same period, multi-year ice, that frac- likely to be less than the 40 per cent increase. With this in mind, the World tion which survives over the summer decrease suggested by the submarine Climate Research Programme (WCRP) measurements. The review also high- has been responsible for setting up lighted, however, the paucity of data, two major projects: the Arctic that so often plagues cryos-

76 BLTN 54/2 17/06/05 12:42 Page 77

ice observed during the ACSYS decade.

10 Warming of the Arctic Ocean and Y atmosphere

0 Figure 3 — Changing The Arctic atmosphere has become Arctic sea-ice thickness. warmer during the past 20 years, Numbers show where with two of the fastest warming observations found an regions of the Earth being north- 10 average decrease of western Canada/Alaska and eastern 40 per cent in ice Siberia. This relatively abrupt warm- -15 0 15 thickness from the 1950s X ing is of similar magnitude to that and 1970s to the 1990s, observed during the 1930s. but models show that Comparison of these two warming -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 1.8 3.0 this may have been because the ice moved “events” is crucial to understanding Ice thickness (m) rather than melted. whether the current Arctic warming is of anthropogenic origin or part of natural climate variability. Whilst the pheric studies. Continuing measure- Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait magnitude of warming observed in ments using both in situ and (Rigor et al., 2002). These patterns of the 1930s was similar, a major differ- remote-sensing techniques will be ice motion have been found to be ence is that the current Arctic necessary over the next few years to related to the Arctic Oscillation, which warming reflects a hemispheric determine whether the thinning is part is essentially a statistical measure of warming trend (Figure 5). That of the of a trend or a cycle. the strength of the polar vortex. 1930s occurred only at high latitudes Between the 1980s and the 1990s, this and a different mechanism was Given the difficulty of collecting climate oscillation switched to a generally posi- responsible: greater exchange of air data in the Arctic Ocean, a remarkable tive phase, meaning that more warm with lower latitudes, which in turn success story has been the International air was brought to the Arctic with a were cooled (Overland et al., 2004) Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP). consequent rise in mean temperature. The hemispheric warming now Combining the efforts of currently It seems likely, therefore, that both the occurring suggests an anthropogenic 10 nations and 22 groups, this warming and the changes in ice motion role is more likely over recent programme has successfully deployed are contributors to the reduction of sea decades. drifters on the Arctic pack ice for more than 25 years. The drifters are tracked by satellite, revealing a detailed picture of the sea-ice motion in otherwise inac- cessible areas of the central Arctic. In addition, pressure and temperature sensors have provided meteorological data in a region with few conventional measurements. Results have revealed changes of the major pattern of ice motion between the 1980s and the 1990s (Figure 4).

In the 1990s, there was an increase in Figure 4 — The International Arctic Buoy Programme has demonstrated different modes of ice advection away from the Siberian Arctic sea-ice motion corresponding to low and high Arctic Oscillation indices. The numbered coast, a decrease of ice advection from lines show how many years it would take to drift across the Arctic Ocean and exit through the western to the eastern Arctic, and the Fram Strait; the boundary between ice that will exit Fram Strait or recirculate in the a slight increase in transport out of the Beaufort Gyre (dashed black line) is also shown. (Figure: I. Rigor)

77 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 78

Along with this recent atmospheric Basin falls as snow, but spring melt warming, the Arctic Ocean has also brings a rapid increase in runoff. This CliC—the goals changed. In particular, there has been input has a major effect on ocean buoy- a weakening of the cold halocline, the ancy fluxes and its influence on the The two-way interaction of the near surface layer of cold, relatively next season’s sea-ice formation is still cryosphere and the rest of the freshwater that normally keeps warm, being investigated. climate system is recognized as salty, Atlantic water well clear of the extremely important: not only do ocean surface—and hence clear of the A major finding during the decade of changes in climate affect the cryo- sea ice. The abrupt density change ACSYS research, however, was that sphere, but changes to the observed in the past has become river runoff to the Arctic from the cryosphere can have a dramatic more smooth in recent years and has Eurasian continent had increased by effect on local, regional and global come closer to the surface. The area 7 per cent between 1936 and 1999 climate. Reflecting this two-way occupied by Atlantic water has also (Peterson et al., 2002). Much of this interaction, the principal goal of increased, particularly along the coast increase occurred in winter, reflecting CliC is: of Siberia, and the core of this water is warmer winter temperatures over now found 150 m nearer the surface. much of Siberia. What is more surpris- To assess and quantify the Of concern is the fact that, should it ing is that, whilst the increase in impacts of climatic variability reach the surface, the heat contained western Siberia matches an increase and change on components of in the Atlantic water layer is certainly in precipitation, in eastern Siberia, the cryosphere, and the conse- enough to melt all the sea ice—an precipitation has decreased but runoff quences of these changes for occurrence that would have wide- has increased. Thawing of permafrost the climate system. spread impacts, not only on Arctic and consequent release of water is ecosystems, but also on Arctic and one suggested cause, which, if true, Supporting objectives seek to global climate systems. indicates that changes to landscape enhance and coordinate our ability and vegetation will take place, as well to observe and monitor the cryos- as possible release of CO2 and phere, to carry out intensive Faster flowing Arctic rivers methane: all changes that could climate-related process studies, to amplify initial climate warming. improve models of the cryosphere’s Of all the world’s oceans, the Arctic is role in the climate system, and to the most influenced by river runoff. It Ongoing monitoring of river runoff and use cryospheric changes as indica- contains only 1 per cent of the ocean other land-based hydrological parame- tors of climate change. volume and covers only 5 per cent of ters is essential. To aid this, ACSYS the world’s ocean area, yet receives 10 set up two major databases. With the per cent of global river runoff and holds assistance of the WMO Global Runoff 20 per cent of the ocean shelf area. To Data Centre at the Federal Institute of major rivers flowing into the Arctic. In add to this unusual situation, the fresh- Hydrology in Koblenz, Germany, the addition, the WMO/WCRP Global water input is highly seasonal. Flows Arctic Runoff DataBase (ARDB) was Precipitation Climatology Centre at are low in winter when rivers are created to collect, process, store and the Deutscher Wetterdienst, in frozen and precipitation in the Arctic distribute, runoff data from all the Offenbach, Germany, has set up the Arctic Precipitation Data Archive 2.0 Figure 5 — 20th (APDA) to collect precipitation data century zonal mean from the entire Arctic drainage basin. surface air temperature 1.0 The data from these two centres anomalies (November– provide an extremely useful resource March): recent for ongoing climate and hydrological increases in Arctic air 00 research. temperature are part of a hemispheric trend, A major concern for Arctic hydrologi- -1.0 whilst increases in the cal studies has been the decaying Arctic 60-90°N 1920s and 1930s were Mid-latitude 45-55°N largely an Arctic observation networks in the region. -2.0 phenomenon. (Figure: ACSYS, along with partners in the 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 after J. Overland) Hydrology and Water Resources

78 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 79

Department of WMO and the Arctic Kara Seas region going back to 1898 continued study of Arctic climate as a Monitoring and Assessment (ACSYS, 1999) was recently overtaken fully-interactive element within the Programme has supported the devel- for length of record by the ACSYS global climate system. opment of an Arctic component of the Historical Ice Chart Archive (ACSYS, World Hydrological Cycle Observing 2003). This effort to record historical System (WHYCOS)—the Arctic changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice Future studies: the Climate and HYCOS—which, it is hoped, will lead was started by Torgny Vinje of the Cryosphere (CliC) Project to an increase in the collection of vital Norwegian Polar Institute, and drew in situ hydrological data in the Arctic on sailing ship logbooks, historical As ACSYS progressed and the impor- Basin. diaries, sealing and whaling records tance of the Arctic to global climate and a number of other historical became ever clearer, attention was sources, and used modern aircraft- drawn to the Earth’s other cold A variable Arctic climate system and satellite-assisted charts to regions. It seemed likely that, like the continue the series to the present day Arctic, these other cold regions could One principal result of the ACSYS (Figure 6). have a greater influence on the global project was the identification of Arctic system than had previously been climate variability. Measurements The result is one of the longest allowed for. A review of relevant made during ACSYS show that the observational records of any climate scientific efforts identified the need overall Arctic climate system, and all parameter, with the first charts for a greater understanding of the the system’s major elements, are dating back to a doomed British cryosphere and all its elements and much more variable than was imag- expedition to the Barents Sea in interactions, in order for WCRP to ined at the start of the project. Sea-ice 1553. Modern analysis of these fully cover the Earth’s climate distribution changes from one year to charts is revealing even more vari- system. Many cryospheric elements the next; the paths and strengths of ability. It appears that not only was were touched on within other WCRP major ocean currents change; fresh- past interannual variability similar to projects. But, with the relatively small water export from the Arctic can vary that of the present day, but also that global cryospheric research commu- by a factor of 2 from year to year; the Arctic is profoundly influenced by nity, the remoteness of much of the some years are warmer than others decadal and multi-decadal climatic cryosphere and the complexity of with melt seasons several days cycles (Divine and Dick, 2005; adding the solid phase of water into longer; and location, timing and Polvakov et al., 2003). The recovered conceptual and numerical models, amount of river input to the Arctic data have confirmed again the the cryosphere often received a Ocean vary dramatically. complexity of the system and its lower priority within these projects interactions with the rest of the than perhaps was warranted by its These unexpected variations have global climate system. This complex- importance within the climate made it more difficult to understand ity emphasizes the importance of system. With this in mind, in the late the interplay between the various elements of the climate system, harder to identify trends, and more difficult to predict future changes. Useful clues to the future often come from understanding the past but, in this data-sparse region, even the data collected have not always received the best stewardship. Early leaders of the ACSYS project set up a number of data-recovery efforts to improve the situation, resulting in a number of records of Arctic climate parameters stretching back for decades or even centuries. The “BarKode” project, Figure 6 — The ACSYS Historical Ice Chart Archive used old log books from sailing vessels which recovered ocean temperature to reconstruct ice-edge positions going back to 1553. Modern charts (chart from 2002, left) and salinity data from the Barents and now supplement historical data (chart from 1866, right).

79 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 80

1990s, the WCRP developed the What will be the associated continue for hundreds of years, with Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) proj- changes in the water, energy and loss of land ice contributing signifi- ect (CliC, 2001) as a core project carbon cycles? cantly. Key questions are: covering both polar regions and all cryospheric regions (continental and Major outputs are expected to be What is the contribution of glaciers, marine) in between. better understanding of water, energy ice caps and ice sheets to sea-level and carbon fluxes in the Earth’s cold rise on decadal to century time- regions, historical datasets on past scales? How can we reduce the Studying the cryosphere/climate cryosphere/climate variability and uncertainty of these estimates? system change, improved and validated satellite remote-sensing algorithms and Major outputs will include new meas- The list of cryospheric elements is a improved schemes for assimilation of urements, models and explanations clear indication of the breadth of the cryospheric data in both numerical of the current state of balance of interaction of the cryosphere and weather prediction and coupled glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets and climate. Each element responds to, climate models. a quantification of the indirect role of and affects, climate in different ways, ice shelves through their influence on interacting on time-scales from short- the flow of land-based ice sheets and term to seasonal effects of snow or Glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, glaciers. A comparison of ice-sheet frozen ground, to the millennial-scale and their relation to sea-level models is already underway, seeking responses of ice sheets and (CPA 2) to improve our understanding of the permafrost. It was therefore consid- past and future changes of the ered an essential simplification to If greenhouse-gas concentrations Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. tackle the CliC project as a series of were stabilized at today’s levels, sea- related themes—CliC Project Areas level rise would nonetheless (CPAs)—guided by key scientific ques- The marine cryosphere and its tions. These CPAs cover broadly the interactions with high-latitude terrestrial cryosphere, the contribution oceans and atmosphere (CPA 3) of land ice to sea-level rise, the marine cryosphere, and the links between the Sea ice and its snow cover form an cryosphere and global circulation. insulating layer that interacts with both Cryospheric indicators of climate the ocean and the atmosphere, while change form an issue that cuts across icebergs and ice shelves modify ocean all four CPAs. water mass properties, and respond strongly to atmospheric warming (Figure 8). Key questions are: The terrestrial cryosphere and hydrometeorology of cold What are the mean state, variability regions (CPA 1) and trends in sea-ice characteristics in both hemispheres, and what Many of the processes involving physical processes determine snow cover on land, lake and river ice, these characteristics? How will sea glaciers and ice caps, permafrost, ice respond to, and affect, a chang- seasonally frozen ground and solid ing climate in the future? How precipitation are poorly understood stable are ice shelves and how do and poorly represented in current they affect the surrounding ocean? climate models (Figure 7). Key questions for this CPA are: Major outputs will be systems for tracking key sea-ice variables (including What will be the magnitudes, Figure 7 — Snow and lake ice in northern thickness, extent and snow cover), patterns and rates of change in Norway. How fast will the terrestrial cryosphere understanding of key sea-ice processes, terrestrial cryosphere regimes on change with changing climate? and observations and models of ice- seasonal-to-century time-scales? (Photo: H. Goldman) affected ocean circulation and water

80 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 81

As the First CliC International Science Conference takes place in April 2005 in Beijing, China, the global science community looks forward to the International Polar Year (IPY), which starts in March 2007. This period of intensive effort will focus climatologists attention on the cold polar regions, and the CliC project will play a major role in coordinating studies of polar climate and the cryosphere. In addition, CliC will continue to promote efforts to study the cryosphere at all latitudes. Without such studies, our understanding of global climate, and our ability to make climate projections for the future will remain incomplete.

References

Figure 8 — Sea-ice research will be vital for understanding and predicting future climate. ACSYS (Golubev et al.), 1999: Barents (Photo: S. Gerland) and Kara Seas oceanographic database (BarKode); WCRP IACPO Informal Report No. 5, Murmansk, Russian Federation and Tromsø, mass transformation. CliC will seek to Key questions are: Norway. build on the International Programme for Antarctic Buoys and the International What will be the impact of cryo- ACSYS (Løyning et al.), 2003: ACSYS Arctic Buoy Programme to maintain key spheric changes on atmospheric historical ice chart archive (1553-2002); climatic observational time-series, and oceanic circulation? What is WCRP IACPO Informal Report No. 8, encourage new technologies for observ- the likelihood of abrupt or critical Tromsø, Norway. ing under-ice ocean properties (e.g. Earth- system change resulting autonomous underwater vehicles and from processes in the cryosphere? ACSYS/CliC (Laxon et al.), 2002: Recent acoustic data transmission for profiling variations in Arctic sea-ice thickness; floats) and evaluate and improve remote Major outputs of this highly cross- WCRP IACPO Informal Report No. 7, sensing algorithms. disciplinary CPA cover broad issues Tromsø, Norway. dealing with global climate interactions and millennial time-scales. Of specific CliC (Allison et al.), 2001: Climate and Links between the cryosphere and interest are the teleconnections that Cryosphere (CliC) Project Science and global climate (CPA 4) link the cryosphere with the rest of the Co-ordination Plan Version 1, WCRP- climate system, the mechanisms by 114, WMO/TD No. 1053. Understanding the major influence of which such major interactions occur, the cryosphere on the Earth’s climate and the major feedbacks and amplifi- DIVINE, D. and C. DICK, 2005: Multidecadal through its complex radiative, ther- cations of climate change that occur variability of historical sea ice edge mal, hydrological, and chemical through the cryosphere. The project position in the Nordic Seas; J. interactions with the atmosphere and area will assess cryospheric predictions Geophys. Res. Oceans (in press). the injection of freshwater into the and predictability, with particular refer- ocean and subsequent modification ence to abrupt climate change and HOLLOWAY, G. and T. SOU, 2002: Has Arctic of water masses and circulation, effects on global biogeochemical sea ice rapidly thinned? J. Climate, 15 remains a challenge. cycles. (13), 1691-1701.

81 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 82

HOLLOWAY, G. and T. SOU, 2001: Is Arctic sea ice rapidly thinning? Ice and Climate News, 1. (ACSYS/CliC Newsletter).

OVERLAND, J.E., M.C. SPILLANE, D.B. PERCIVAL, M. WANG and H.O. MOFJELD, 2004: Seasonal and regional variation of pan-Arctic surface air temperature over the instrumental record. J. Climate, 17 (17), 3263-3282.

PETERSON, B.J., R.M. HOLMES, J.W. MCCLELLAND, C.J. VOROSMARTY, R.B. LAMMERS, A.I. SHIKLOMANOV, I.A. SHIKLOMANOV and S. RAHMSTORF, 2002: Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Science, 298 (5601), 2171-2173.

POLYAKOV I.V., R.V. BEKRYAEV, G.V. ALEKSEEV, U.S. BHATT, R.L. COLONY, M.A. JOHNSON, A.P. MASKSHTAS and D. WALSH, 2003: Variability and trends of air temperature and pressure in the maritime Arctic, 1875-2000. J. Climate, 16 (12), 2067- 2077.

RIGOR, I., J.M. WALLACE and R.L. COLONY, 2002: On the response of sea ice to the Arctic Oscillation. J. Climate, 15 (18), 2648 - 2668.

ROTHROCK, D.A., Y. YU and G.A. MAYKUT, 1999: Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26 (23), 3469-3472.

WADHAMS, P. and N.R. DAVIS, 2000: Further evidence of ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27 (24),. 3973-3975.

82 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 83

daily data. Unfortunately, such data are A total of 27 indices are considered to not readily available internationally for be core indices. They are based on daily large portions of the world. In the 2002 temperature values or daily precipita- Climate “global” analysis by Frich et al. (2002), tion amount. Some are based on fixed almost no analysis of extremes was thresholds that are of relevance to possible for most of Central and South particular applications. In these cases, change America, Africa and southern Asia. thresholds are the same for all stations. However, a concerted series of efforts indices to remedy that situation is underway. Other indices are based on thresholds that vary from location to location. In these cases, thresholds are typically Role of an international expert defined as a percentile of the relevant team (ET) data series. The definitions of the 27 indices and the formulas for calcu- Two complementary efforts to enable lating them are available from global analysis of extremes are being http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI. coordinated by the joint WMO This Website also provides the Commission for Climatology (CCl)/ FORTRAN code for calculating the World Climate Research Programme indices from daily data and a user- (WCRP) Climate Variability and friendly software package to calculate Predictability (CLIVAR) project’s Expert the indices. This software package, Team on Climate Change Detection, called RClimDex, uses the free soft- Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). ware R (see http://www.r-project.org Detailed information on the ET is for more information), which is a available at http://www.clivar.org/ language and an environment for statis- organization/etccd. Members of the tical computing and graphics. Expert Team come from all continents Thomas C. Peterson, and encompass a wide range of Analysis software does not, however, National Climatic Data Center, National expertise in the field of climate perform without data. In many parts of Oceanic and Atmospheric change. The author is not a member of the world, enough daily data have Administration, Asheville, North the ET but works closely with it as been digitized to contribute to an Carolina, USA, and Chair, WMO chair of the CCl Open Programme analysis but institutions are reluctant Commission for Climatology Open Area Group (OPAG) on the Monitoring to share them. This is a difficult prob- Programme Area Group on the and Analysis of Climate Variability and lem to address. The solution proposed Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change to which the ET belongs. As by the ETCCDMI’s predecessor was to Variability and Change all ET members are volunteers with hold regional climate-change work- full-time jobs, the focus of their work shops modelled after the Asia Pacific must be on what they can coordinate, Network workshops (Manton et al., Introduction recommend or inspire, rather than do 2000; Peterson et al., 2001). Two were themselves. held in 2001 and, in view of the expe- For decades, most analyses of long- rience gained, the ETCCDMI decided term global climate change using One of the ET’s activities is interna- to hold a series of other such work- observational data have focused on tional coordination of a suite of climate- shops to cover all areas of the globe. changes in mean values. Several well- change indices derived from daily data respected datasets of monthly station which focus primarily on extremes. The temperature and precipitation data development of the indices involves Regional workshop concept provide quite good coverage across not only ET members but also numer- the globe. Analysing changes in ous other scientists working with daily The workshops bring together partici- extremes (e.g. the number of days climate data. By setting an exact pants from as many countries as exceeding the 90th percentile of mini- formula for each index, analyses done possible across an area for a combina- mum temperature observations), in different countries or different tion of seminars and hands-on however, requires long-term digital regions can fit together seamlessly. analyses of the daily data they bring

83 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 84

with them. Through this process, a the analysis. Participants have found workshop “recipe” has been created. The work described in this this workshop product quite useful The workshops start with overview article is the result of the when they return home. seminars, describing the reasons for collaborative effort of many holding the workshops and how the The last part of the workshop looks to climate of the region is projected to individuals, who have been the future. This includes user feedback change. The participants then describe supported in this endeavour and advice for future workshop organ- the climate of their countries and the by their home institutions. izers. Discussing how to improve the station data they bring with them. available Global Climate Observing Unfortunately, they are too System (GCOS) Surface Network The hands-on analysis starts with qual- numerous to be mentioned (GSN) data, now that the participants ity control (QC). RClimDex has several here by name. WMO, clearly understand the value of being QC checks. Some identify specific data able to compare analyses across coun- points as outliers. For these tests, each through its Expert Teams, try borders, is also relevant. Lastly, the data point that is potentially a problem provides the structure and participants discuss how to make the is examined. Based on data before and coordination so that these results of the analyses started at the after, as well as the understanding of workshop useful for climate-change the climate of the region, the data are volunteers may make these assessments. This includes deciding edited if the problem is obvious (e.g. accomplishments. who will lead the writing of multi- 182° changed to 18.2°); set to missing authored peer-reviewed journal if it is clearly a problem with unknown articles, making the time-series of the solution; or kept if deemed probably indices available to other researchers, valid. With each change or acceptance Once QC and homogeneity testing and the data themselves available to of an outlier, a record of the decision have been accomplished, the calcula- other researchers (the author list and the reasons behind it is made in tion of the indices is quite simple. One includes all participants who bring data the QC log file. The second stage of of the benefits of doing this at a contributing to the analysis). QC involves evaluating numerous regional workshop is the synergy of detailed graphs of daily data to detect immediately being able to see how So far, none of these workshops has evidence of possible quality issues results compare across borders. The been able to release time-series of with the data. An example of this participants create a short presenta- daily data. There has been great would be an impossibly long period of tion of what the analysis is indicating success, however, in reaching agree- time with zero precipitation. This prob- about changes in extremes for each ment to release the indices and some lem can arise because many countries country. Similar results that span coun- success in encouraging the release of do not record zero precipitation, so try borders verify the robustness of data from GSN stations to the GSN missing values must initially be assumed to be zero.

The next stage of analysis is to conduct homogeneity assessments. Homo- geneity adjustments of daily data are complex and difficult to make well (Aguilar, 2003). The focus on homogeneity is therefore to identify significant problems. When the homogeneity- testing software identifies a likely problem, the participant consults station history metadata, if available, to understand why. Non-climatic jumps in the time series have resulted in some stations not being used in the indices analyses or used only for the period after the discontinuity. Regional Climate Change Workshop in Brazil, August 2004

84 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 85

Archive Centre. For each of these digitizing historical records, as well as series of workshops, peer-reviewed The workshops fulfilling GSN data-exchange goals. journal articles on changes in extremes in the regions are either in These workshops are making a clear preparation or have already been Southern Africa contribution to our understanding of submitted and the indices prepared Cape Town, South Africa, how climate extremes are changing to contribute to the global indices 31 May-4 June 2004 around the world. In addition to the in- paper. depth peer-reviewed regional papers, Southern South America the indices analysed at each of the workshops are contributing to two The workshops Maceio, Brazil, 9-14 August global extremes papers. Thanks largely 2004 to these workshops, these papers will The previous incarnation of the indeed be global. Together, they will ETCCDMI, a CCl/CLIVAR Working Middle East make a significant contribution to the Group, also addressed indices and Alanya, Turkey, 4-9 October upcoming Fourth Assessment Report regional climate change and held two 2004 of the Intergovernmental Panel on workshops in 2001. The first was in the Climate Change. Caribbean, where 18 of the 21 National Central America and northern Meteorological Services participated. South America Lastly, as one participant wrote after This workshop resulted in the release the Middle East workshop, they are “a of daily data, indices, a meeting report, Guatemala City, Guatemala, very good beginning for regional co- and a 17-author peer-reviewed journal 8-12 November 2004 operation”. article on how the climate in the region is changing (Peterson et al., 2002). The South-Central Asia Acknowledgements second workshop was held in Pune, India, 14-19 February Casablanca, Morocco, for various 2005 These workshops were made possible by African countries (Easterling, 2003). the generous financial support from the US State Department, the SysTem for Analysis, The ETCCDMI sought to improve and Research and Training, the World Climate extend those workshops to cover produced and made available. The Research Programme (co-sponsored by more of the world. Financial support analyses would gain increased credi- WMO, the International Council for Science was a limiting factor but adequate bility by being reproducible with the and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic resources have become available to release of the data. The strong focus Commission of UNESCO) and the Inter- hold five workshops. on quality control and homogeneity American Institute for Global Change testing (the results of which are being Research. Summary released), however, make it possible to evaluate the analysis independ- Thanks are also due to the institutions which This series of regional climate-change ently, even without the digital data. hosted the workshops: the University of Cape workshops is achieving several important objectives. In regions Training scientists in these countries where data are not readily accessible, may not have been the driving goal, a suite of climate-change indices that but the workshops have definitely had focus primarily on extremes has been a major capacity-building aspect, as outside experts worked closely with regional participants on data analyses, Regional workshops on provided them with user-friendly software, and introduced them to a climate change indices are free statistical package. The capacity “a very good beginning for building has, in turn, helped foster a regional cooperation”. greater appreciation of the importance of long-term in situ data and this has Regional Climate Change Workshop in resulted in renewed efforts at Turkey, October 2004

85 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 86

Regional Climate Change Workshop in Guatemala, November 2004

Town, South Africa; the Federal University of PETERSON, T.C., C. FOLLAND, G. GRUZA, Alagoa, Brazil; the Turkish State W. HOGG, A. MOKSSIT, and N. PLUMMER, Meteorological Service; the National Institute 2001: Report of the Activities of the of Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology and Working Group on Climate Change Hydrology, Guatemala, and the Regional Detection and Related Rapporteurs, Committee for Water Resources of the WMO/TD No. 1071,WMO, Geneva, Central American Isthmus (Costa Rica); and 146 pp. the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Pune) PETERSON, T.C., M.A. TAYLOR, R. DEMERITTE, D.L. DUNCOMBE, S. BURTON, References F. T HOMPSON, A. PORTER, M. MERCEDES, E. VILLEGAS, R.S. Fils, A. KLEIN-TANK, AGUILAR, E., I. AUER, M. BRUNET, A. MARTIS, R. WARNER, A. JOYETTE, T.C. PETERSON and J. WIERINGA, 2003: W. MILLS, L. ALEXANDER, and Guidelines on Climate Metadata and B. GLEASON, 2002: Recent Changes in Homogenization, WCDMP-No. 53, Climate Extremes in the Caribbean WMO-TD No. 1186. WMO, Geneva, Region. J. Geophys. Res., 107(D21), 55 pp. 4601, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002251 (Nov. 16, 2002). EASTERLING, D.R., L.V. ALEXANDER, A. MOKSSIT, V. DETEMMERMAN, 2003: CCl/CLIVAR Workshop to Develop Priority Climate Indices. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1403-1407.

FRICH, P., L.V. ALEXANDER, P. DELLA-MARTA, B. GLEASON, M. HAYLOCK, A.M.G. KLEIN- TANK and T. PETERSON, 2002: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the 2nd half of the 20th century, Climate Res., 19, 193-212.

MANTON, M.J., et al., 2000: Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 269-284.

86 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 87

This value places 2004 as the fourth Regional temperature anomalies warmest year in the temperature record since 1861 just behind 2003 Large portions of the northern hemi- The global (+0.49°C). The last 10 years sphere had warm conditions in 2004 (1995–2004), with the exception of that exceeded 90 per cent of the 1996, are among the warmest on annual temperatures recorded in the climate record. The five warmest years in 1961-1990 period (the 90th decreasing order are: 1998, 2002, percentile). Northern China, parts of system in 2003, 2004 and 2001. central Asia and the eastern North Atlantic had warm temperatures Over the 20th century, the increase in exceeding the 98th percentile. Only a 2004 global surface temperature was few small areas experienced tempera- between 0.6°C and 0.7°C. The rate of tures below the 10th percentile. change since 1976 is roughly three times that for the past 100 years as a During June and July, heatwaves with whole. In the northern hemisphere, near-record temperatures affected the 1990s was the warmest decade Portugal, Romania and southern Spain, with an average of 0.38°C. The surface with maximum temperatures reaching temperatures averaged over the past 40°C. In the second week of August, five years (2000–2004) were, however, an unusual heatwave affected parts of much higher (0.58°C). Surface air Iceland, making the month of August temperatures measured by a world- the second warmest there on record. wide network of land stations have shown that trends of night-time mini- An exceptional heatwave affected mum temperature on still nights were much of eastern Australia during the same as on windy nights. February, as maximum temperatures soared to 45°C in many areas with Calculated separately for both hemi- temperature anomalies exceeding Typhoons Mindulle and Tingting spheres, surface temperatures in 2004 8°C. The spatial and temporal extent on 29 June 2004 (Image: NOAA) for the northern hemisphere were the of the heatwave was greater than that fourth warmest (+0.62°C) and, for the of any other February heatwave on southern hemisphere, the sixth record and ranked among the top five Since 1993, WMO has issued annual warmest in the instrumental record from Australian heatwaves in any month. statements on the status of the global 1861 to the present (+0.25°C). Globally, climate to provide credible scientific the land-surface air temperature anom- A prolonged severe heatwave across information on climate and its alies for October and November 2004 northern parts of India during the last variability. These statements were the warmest on record for these week of March and the beginning of complement the periodic assessments months. The blended land and sea- April caused more than 100 deaths. of the WMO/United Nations surface temperature (SST) value for the During this period, maximum tempera- Environment Programme Intergovern- Arctic (north of 70°N) in July and the tures generally exceeded the long-term mental Panel on Climate Change. This land-surface air temperature values for averages by 5-7°C. In Japan, extremely article is drawn from the statement Africa south of the Equator in July and hot conditions persisted during the describing the climatic conditions, November were also the warmest on summer with record-breaking maximum including extreme weather events, for record for these months. Significant temperatures. Tokyo experienced a the year 2004. (WMO-No. 983) positive annual regional temperature maximum temperature of 39.5°C on anomalies, notably across much of the 20 July, which broke the previous land masses of central Asia, China, record set in 1923. Global temperatures western parts of the USA and Alaska, as well as across major portions of the During the northern hemisphere The global mean surface temperature North Atlantic Ocean, contributed to the winter, very cold weather episodes in 2004 was 0.44°C above the high global mean surface temperature were observed in the northern parts of 1961–1990 annual average (14°C). ranking. India and Bangladesh, which were

87 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 88

blamed for as many as 600 deaths. Maximum and minimum temperatures A disastrous cyclone season were 6-10°C below normal. During the austral winter, abnormally cold conditions in the high-altitude areas of the The 2004 tropical cyclone season In the South Atlantic Ocean, sea- Andes in southern Peru reportedly over the North Atlantic and the surface and atmospheric conditions killed 92 people and more than north-west Pacific saw some of the do not favour the formation of 100 000 farm animals. most deadly hurricanes and hurricanes. During March 2004, typhoons responsible for more than however, the first documented 6 000 deaths and heavy damage to hurricane since geostationary satel- Prolonged drought in some regions infrastructure. The 2004 cyclone lite records began in 1966 season was the second costliest developed. Unofficially named In early 2004, drought conditions cyclone season after 1992 and the Catarina, it made landfall along the continued to affect parts of eastern number of deaths due to tropical southern coast of Brazil (in the state South Africa, Mozambique, Lesotho cyclones was the highest since of Santa Catarina) on 28 March and Swaziland. However, enhanced 2000. 2004, causing great damage to precipitation in the last half of the rainy property and some loss of life. season (November to March) provided During the Atlantic hurricane some benefit to crops in southern season, 15 named tropical storms In the north-west Pacific, 29 named Africa. Rainfall during both the long developed; the average is around storms developed; the average is (March to June) and short (October to 10. During August, eight tropical around 27. Nineteen of them November) rainy seasons of 2004 was storms formed, which is a record reached typhoon intensity, which well below normal across parts of the for the most named storms for any was slightly more than the long- Greater Horn of Africa, resulting in a month of August. Since 1995, there term average. On an average, three continuation of multi-season drought. has been a marked increase in the tropical cyclones make landfall in Isolated regions in the southern sector annual number of tropical storms in Japan. However, in 2004, 10 tropi- and portions of Uganda experienced the Atlantic Basin, which is coinci- cal cyclones made landfall, breaking driest conditions on record since 1961. dent with the active phase of the the previous record of six, estab- In Kenya, a premature end to the 2004 Atlantic multi-decadal signal. Nine lished in 1990. Typhoon Tokage was long rains exacerbated the drought of the named storms were classified the deadliest typhoon to affect conditions resulting from several years as hurricanes. Six of those were Japan since 1979. Two hundred of poor rainfall in many areas. Food “major” hurricanes (category three and nine people were killed in production in Kenya was projected at or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Japan by floods, landslides, strong approximately 40 per cent below scale). Hurricane Ivan was the most wind and storm surge caused by normal. In spite of abundant rainfall in powerful storm to affect the the tropical cyclones. They also 2004, multi-year drought conditions Caribbean in 10 years. Hurricane caused damage to infrastructure also continued in Somalia, threatening Charley was the strongest and most worth around US$ 10 billion. agriculture and food security in the destructive hurricane to strike the Typhoon Rananim, which was the region. In Eritrea, struggling from USA since Andrew in 1992. In all, most severe typhoon affecting nearly four years of drought, poor rains nine named storms impacted the Zhejiang, China, since 1956, during the March-May rains exacer- USA, causing extensive damage claimed 169 fatalities and caused bated drinking-water shortages. estimated at more than US$ 43 damage worth over US$ 2 billion. billion and making 2004 the costli- In India, the 2004 seasonal rainfall est hurricane season in the USA on The South-West Indian Ocean during the south-west monsoon record. Atlantic tropical cyclones cyclone season was also active with season (June-September) over the were directly responsible for more an above normal number of tropi- country as a whole was 13 per cent than 3 000 deaths in 2004; the vast cal storms. Tropical cyclone Gafilo, below normal with 18 per cent of the majority were in Haiti due to floods which was responsible for 237 country experiencing moderate from Hurricane Jeanne. deaths, was the strongest to affect drought conditions. Rainfall deficiency Madagascar in 10 years. Tropical was the highest over north-west India, Conversely, in the eastern North storm 02B made landfall on the where only 78 per cent of normal rain- Pacific, tropical cyclone activity was coast of Myanmar on 19 May, caus- below average. Only 12 named ing 200 fatalities. However, tropical storms developed during the year, cyclone activity over the South compared to an average of 16. Out Pacific/Australian region was of those 12 storms, six reached suppressed. hurricane strength and three reached “major” status. None of the cyclones made landfall as a tropical storm or hurricane.

88 BLTN 54/2 17/06/05 12:42 Page 89

S ea-i c e B el o w l o n g -t erm av erag e. A l as k a S ep t emb er 13% b el o w R ec o rd w arm M ay, N o rt h A meri c a 10-year mean . J u n e, J u l y, A u g u s t . 8t h l arg est sn o w c o ve r N o rt h ern h emi s p h ere s n o w c o v er ex t en t ex t en t i n 38 years f o r O c t o b er. l arg es t s i n c e 1985 f o r J an u ary; 5t h l o w es t T yp h o o n s: d en o t es p o i n t o f l an d f al l . i n 38 years f o r M arc h . C an ad a A b o ve -ave rag e ac t i vi t y i n t h e W est P ac i f i c ; R ec o rd c o l d su mmer i n E u ro p e 29 n amed st o rms an d 19 t yp h o o n s. east ern P rai ri es, rec o rd su mmer W i d es p read A l as k a/Y u k o n w i l d f i res R ec o rd n u mb er o f t ro p i c al R ec o rd area b u rn ed (2. 6 mi l l i o n h eat o n w est c o ast . ab o v e av erag e W est ern A si a, M o n g o l i a J ap an an n u al c yc l o n es (10, p revi o u s rec o rd 6) h ec t ares ) i n A l as k a. C en t ral an d A n n u al w armt h , an o mal i es 2–3 ° C . W et t er-t h an -av erag e year mad e l an d f al l i n J ap an . t emp erat u res (+ 1° C ). f o r mu c h o f t h e c o u n t ry. S t ro n g w i n t er s t o rms N o rt h -east U . S . A f g h an i st an I n d i a W es t ern U . S . M u c h c o l d er-t h an - S o u t h ern an d E as t ern U . S . M o n so o n -rel at ed f l o o d i o n g P art l y d u e t o l an d f al l i n g i n J an u ary f o r L o n g -t erm d ro u g h t t ro p i c al P ac i f i c n o rt h -w es t . C o n t i n u at i o n o f ave rag e su mmer. W et t er t h an av erag e. c o n t i n u ed . D ry J u n e–O c t o b er. M i l l i o n s o f resi d en t s T yp h o o n Ma-on mu l t i -year d ro u g h t 9 l an d f al l i n g t ro p i c al s ys t ems . S t ro n g es t t yp h o o n t o s t ri k e t h e g reat er T o k yo area c o n d i t i o n s , s o me T o n ad o es M arc h –A p ri l se aso n . d i sp l ac ed i n A ssa m, B i h ar an d i n 10 years i n O c t o b er. W et t es t O c t o b er s i n c e 1876 f o r t h e c i t y. s ys t ems . B an g l ad esh . W o rst S o u t h -east C h i n a M ex i c o /U . S . rel i ef i n au t u mn . R ec o rd year f o r t o rn ad o es . M o s t l y H u rri c an e Jeanne S p ai n , P o rt u g al f l o o d i n g i n 15 years. D ro u g h t i s o n e o f T yp h o o n Tokage S ev ere f l o o d i n g i n a res u l t o f t ro p i c al C at eg o ry 3 at l an d f al l . H u rri c an e Frances H eat w av e i n J u n e t h e w o rst i n 50 years. D ead l i es t t yp h o o n t o s t ri k e J ap an s i n c e 1979; 94 d eat h s . A p ri l al o n g t h e s ys t ems . O v er 3 000 l i v es C at eg o ry 2 at l an d f al l . an d J u l y w i t h D ri n k i n g w at er 10t h c yc l o n e t o mak e l an d f al l i n J ap an d u ri n g 2004 s eas o n ; l o s t i n H ai t i . E x t en s i v e f l o o d i n g i n J o rd an , S yri a, G reec e, T u rk ey p ro d u c ed a rec o rd 24-met er h i g h w av e. E s c o n d i d o R i v er. max i mu m t emp erat u res I n d i a su p p l i es H u rri c an e Charley s o u t h ern A p p al ac h i an W i d es p read w i n t er s t o rm i n F eb ru ary. S eve re h eat w ave er p uS ypT n o o h Chaba reac h i n g 40° C . t h reat en ed . er-t p uS yp n o o h (c at eg ry o 4) ni e ht acP , c i f i atc eg ry o 1 at anl al f d l ni S t ro n g es t h u rri c an e t o M o u n t ai n s . A p p ro x i mat el y 60 c m o f s n o w i n J o rd an . i n M arc h . M o re t h an i mp ac t t h e U . S . s i n c e apJ an ni ; t s u g uA 13 eatd . s h H u rri c an e Andrew i n 1992. 100 d eat h s. C h i n a E as t P ac i f i c h u rri c an e s eas o n H u rri c an e F l o o d i n g i n T yp h o o n Rananim Ivan A t l an t i c h u rri c an e s eas o n S t ro n g es t t yp h o o n t o af f ec t Z h ej i an g P ro v i n c e i n C h i n a s i n c e 1956. B el o w av erag e ac t i v i t y. R eac h ed c at eg o ry 5 i n t h e A b o v e-av erag e ac t i v i t y S i c h u an P ro vi n c e C ari b b ean . 210 k m/h r at A f ri c a I T C Z O v er U S $ 2 b i l l i o n i n d amag e an d 169 d eat h s . 12 n amed s t o rms ; 6 h u rri c an es . 15 n amed s t o rms ; 9 h u rri c an es ; I n d i an mo n s o o n rai n f al l i n S ep t emb er. l an d f al l . M as s i v e d es t ru c t i o n 6 ‘ maj o r’ . 8 t ro p i c al s t o rms i n A ve rag e an n u al I T C Z 87% o f n o rmal o v eral l . S u p er T yp h o o n i n G ren ad a as i t p as s ed A u g u s t — mo s t n amed s t o rms 196 p eo p l e k i l l ed . Nida o v er t h e i s l an d . c l o se t o l o n g -t erm M ax i mu m reg i o n al d ef i c i t C ame as h o re i n t h e P h i l i p p i n es i n f o r an y A u g u s t o n rec o rd . mean p o si t i o n . P h i l i p p i n es M ay w i t h s u s t ai n ed w i n d s o f 260 k m/h r. i n n o rt h -w es t I n d i a w i t h T w o t yp h o o n s an d o n e t ro p i c al 22% l es s t h an av erag e. s t o rm c l ai med o v er 1 000 l i v es i n t h e P h i l i p p i n es i n N o v emb er. D es ert S o mal i a, K en ya l o c u s t i n v as i o n D es p i t e g o o d “ l o n g rai n s ” i n S o mal i a, l o n g -t erm N eu t ral E N S O t ran s i t i o n s i n t o w eak El Niño M ay– O c t o b er 2004. i n l at e b o real s u mmer an d au t u mn . d ro u g h t remai n s . O n l y 50% o f n o rmal rai n f al l f o r s o u t h -eas t ern K en ya o v er l as t 2 years . T ro p i c al C yc l o n e B raz i l A n g o l a, Z amb i a Elita W et D ec emb er– A f f ec t ed M ad ag asc ar mak i n g t w o se p arat e l an d f al l s. A u st ral i a S ev ere f l o o d i n g i n A p ri l . 29 p eo p l e k i l l ed , t en s o f t h o u sa n d s h o mel ess. F eb ru ary. M aj o r f l o o d i n g I n Z amb i a, al s o i n M ay. N o rt h ern T erri t o ry, mu c h i n J an u ary i n B raz i l ’ s w et t er t h an ave rag e rai n y n o rt h -east ern st at es. se aso n . T ro p i c al C yc l o n e Heta T ro p i c al C yc l o n e Gafilo F i rs t c yc l o n e t o i mp ac t P eru , C h i l e, A rg en t i n a S t ro n g es t c yc l o n e t o h i t S amo a i n a d ec ad e. S ev ere c o l d an d s n o w M ad ag as c ar i n 10 years . d u ri n g J u n e an d J u l y. W i n d s at 260 k m/h r at l an d f al l . N ew Z eal an d H eavy rai n f al l an d A u st ral i a S o u t h A t l an t i c h u rri c an e d amag i n g f l o o d s i n I n t en se an d w i d esp read F eb ru ary. R are h u rri c an e i n h eat w ave d u ri n g F eb ru ary. t h e S o u t h A t l an t i c M an y c i t y rec o rd s b ro k en . L o n g - i n M arc h . M ad e l an d f al l t erm d ro u g h t remai n s i n so u t h ern i n t h e s t at e o f S an t a an d east ern A u st ral i a. C at ari n a, B raz i l . M ax i mu m s u s t ai n ed T asm an i a w i n d s o f 120– 130 k m/h r. 2n d w et t est J an u ary si n c e 1900.

A n t arc t i c o z o n e h o l e l es s ex t en s i v e t h an t h e 10-year mean . L es s t h an 20 mi l l i o n k m2 i n s i z e.

Significant climatic anomalies and events in 2004. The average global temperature was the fourth warmest on record, with a rise in global temperature greater than 0.6°C since 1900. (Source: US NOAA National Climatic Data Center)

fall was received. In neighbouring which affected agriculture and drinking due to deficient annual rainfall, the Pakistan, poor rains in July and August water. eastern provinces of Cuba experi- aggravated the long-term drought enced a drought which eroded 40 per conditions, which had prevailed since Long-term hydrological drought contin- cent of farmlands. A prolonged the boreal spring. The rainfall defi- ued to affect much of southern and drought also affected and severely ciency was the largest over eastern Australia as a result of rainfall threatened food security and health in Balochistan and Sindh provinces, caus- deficits since the major drought event the south-eastern El Chaco region of ing a water crisis. In Sri Lanka, drought of 2002/2003. The weak El Niño condi- Bolivia. conditions prevailing since the end of tions in the Pacific hindered any 2003 were aggravated by deficient significant recovery from long-term rainfall during the 2004 summer rainfall deficiencies. This resulted in Rainfall and flooding monsoon season. In Afghanistan, significant crop losses in many areas drought conditions that had plagued of eastern Australia. Precipitation in 2004 was above aver- the country for the past four years age for the globe and 2004 was the continued in 2004 due to below- Moderate-to-severe drought condi- wettest year since 2000. Wetter-than- normal precipitation in March-April. In tions continued in some areas of the average conditions prevailed in the the spring season, parts of north-east- western USA for the fifth year in a row. southern and eastern USA, Russia, ern China experienced the worst At the beginning of 2004, moderate-to- parts of western Asia, Bangladesh, drought conditions since 1951, owing extreme drought conditions covered Japan, coastal Brazil, Argentina and to deficient spring rainfall and above- about one-third of the contiguous north-west Australia. normal temperatures. Later in the USA. Some rain in September and autumn, the southern provinces of October caused a decrease in the The Asian summer monsoon during China received the lowest rainfall national drought area to about 5 per June-September brought heavy rain since 1951, resulting in a drought cent by the end of October. In 2004, and flooding to parts of northern India,

89 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 90

0.8 August produced flooding along In April, a storm brought heavy rain 0.6 (a) Global 0.4 several rivers in north-eastern and and flash floods to the south-western 0.2 central Thailand. A significant low- USA and adjoining Mexico. In 0 –0.2 pressure system brought record- February, a winter storm brought –0.4 breaking snowfalls in the Republic of record-breaking snowfalls and blizzard –0.6 –0.8 Korea on 5 March, resulting in damage conditions in Canada. The city of 0.8 (b) Northern hemisphere (north of 30°N) 0.6 to agriculture worth more than Halifax recorded 88.5 cm of snow on 0.4 US$ 500 million. 19 February, which doubled the previ- 0.2 0 ous record for a single day. In July, –0.2 In October, two typhoons and active torrential rain and a hailstorm resulted –0.4 –0.6 frontal systems brought record- in horrendous flash floods in –0.8 breaking heavy rainfall to Japan. Tokyo Edmonton and Peterborough, which 0.8 (c) Tropics (30°N–30°S) 0.6 received a total amount of 780 mm were estimated to be the worst in 0.4

Difference from 1961–1990 ( ° C) precipitation in October, which is the 200 years. 0.2 0 largest monthly amount on record –0.2 since 1876. In the second half of Severe winter weather also affected –0.4 –0.6 November and the beginning of much of western and northern Europe –0.8 0.4 December, two typhoons and one during the last week of January with (d) Southern hemisphere (south of 30°S) 0.2 tropical storm passed over southern heavy accumulations of snow reported 0 and central parts of the Philippines, in parts of the United Kingdom, –0.2 drenching the islands with several France, Germany and Denmark. In –0.4 days of torrential rainfall and triggering April, heavy long rains caused flooding –0.6 catastrophic flash floods and land- in some parts of western Siberia. In –0.8 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 slides, which killed, according to the northern Caucasus, hundreds of reports, more than 1 800 people. buildings, bridges and motorways Combined annual land (near surface) and were heavily damaged and crop sea-surface temperature anomalies from Mudslides and floods due to heavy production was affected. In 1861-2004 (departures in °C from the average in the 1961-1990 base period). The solid red rains across areas of Brazil during November, an early season winter curves have had subdecadal time-scale January and early February left tens of storm brought record-breaking heavy variations smoothed with a binomial filter. thousands of people homeless and snowfall and strong winds across Anomalies (in °C) for 2004 are: +0.44 (a); resulted in 161 deaths. The rainy much of the Scandinavian region and +0.75 (b); +0.38 (c); and +0.22 (d). (Sources: season in the Peruvian and Bolivian central Europe, causing extensive Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK, and the highlands brought heavy seasonal rain- damage. Climatic Research Unit, University of East fall, hailstorms and landslides, which Anglia, UK) caused heavy damage to agricultural Heavy rains from mid-January to crops and lands and killed at least March in areas of Angola produced 50 people. In Haiti, torrential rainfall flooding along the river system which due to the passage of Hurricane flows into neighbouring Zambia, Nepal and Bangladesh, leaving millions Jeanne produced disastrous flooding Botswana and Namibia. Extensive stranded. Throughout India, Nepal and that claimed some 3 000 lives. flooding along the Zambezi River, the Bangladesh, some 1 800 people died worst flooding since 1958, threatened from flooding brought by heavy This disaster came in the wake of more than 20 000 people in north-east- monsoon rains. Flooding in north-east flooding and landslides that affected ern Namibia and caused extensive India (Assam and Bihar, in particular) Haiti and the Dominican Republic in damage to crops. and Bangladesh was the worst in over late May 2004, in which more than a decade. In eastern and southern 2000 people were killed and several Rainfall was above normal over most China, heavy rains during the summer thousand others were affected. A of the western and central Australian produced severe flooding and land- series of winter storms in late June tropics during the 2003–2004 tropical slides that affected more than and early July 2004 brought heavy wet season (October–April). In some 100 million people and caused more rains and produced mudslides over the parts of the Northern Territory, it was than 1 000 deaths nationwide. Heavy Patagonia region of Chile and the wettest rainy season on record. A monsoon rainfall during July and Argentina. series of strong storms in February

90 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 91

produced heavy rainfall and damaging Arctic sea ice (a) Arctic floods in southern parts of New Zealand’s North Island. In 2004, sea-ice extent in the Arctic remained well below the long-term ) 2 average. In September 2004, it was km Weak El Niño conditions 6 about 13 per cent less than the 1973–2003 average. Satellite informa-

Sea-surface temperature and sea- tion suggested a general decline in level atmospheric pressure patterns in (b) Antarctic Arctic sea-ice extent of about 8 per the tropical Pacific at the beginning of cent over the last two-and-a-half a 2004 reflected near-neutral El Niño decades. This is the third year in a row conditions. However, the increase and Sea-ice extent anomaly (10 with extreme sea-ice losses. The eastward expansion of anomalous September sea-ice deficit was espe- warmth in the central and east-central cially evident in extreme northern equatorial Pacific during July- Alaska and eastern Siberia. Sea-ice December indicated weak El Niño extent responds to a variety of climatic conditions. Since the last week of Monthly sea-ice extent anomalies for factors. While natural variability is July, sea-surface temperatures over 1973–2004 (departures in millions of km2 responsible for year-to-year variations the equatorial central Pacific region from the average in the 1973-2004 base in sea-ice extent, three extreme mini- were approximately 0.8°C above aver- period) for the Arctic and the Antarctic. The mum extent years, together with the age. However, the pattern of values are derived from satellite passive evidence of thinning of the ice pack, above-average SST anomalies was microwave sounder data. (Source: Hadley suggest that the sea-ice system is focused only near the dateline. The Centre, Met Office, UK) experiencing changes not solely eastern Pacific, which is usually related to natural variability. instrumental in the development of an El Niño event, remained largely neutral throughout 2004. The Tahiti- than a decade and dissipated earlier Darwin Southern Oscillation Index than usual, in mid-November. was negative since June 2004, but fluctuated considerably. The large- Variations in size, depth and persist- scale atmospheric changes expected ence of the ozone hole are due to during an El Niño event were, year-to-year changes in the meteoro- however, conspicuously absent during logical conditions in the lower this episode. stratosphere, rather than to changes in the amount of ozone-depleting substances present in the ozone layer. Antarctic ozone hole Measurements show that most of these substances are decreasing in Extensive ozone depletion was the lower atmosphere. However, observed over the Antarctic during the chemicals already in the atmosphere southern hemisphere winter/spring of are expected to continue to impact 2004. This year, the Antarctic ozone the ozone concentration for many hole area (defined as the area covered decades to come. Continued monitor- by extremely low ozone values of less ing and measurements are essential than 220 Dobson Units) reached a to achieve the understanding needed maximum size of 19.6 million km2 in to identify ozone recovery. mid-September. Except for the year 2002, when the ozone hole split into two, the October ozone hole in 2004 was the smallest observed in more

91 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 92

Union, India, the Islamic Republic of reductions, with reports of unusually Iran, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, the large amounts of small grains register- Russian Federation, South Africa and ing as feed grade. In Ontario, corn Weather and Ukraine and declined in Algeria, production fell about 8 per cent as Australia, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, smaller area more than offset excel- Pakistan and the USA. World coarse lent yields. global crop grain production increased by 9 per cent. Production increased in Canada, In China, wheat production increased production in China, the European Union, the Islamic 4 per cent due to favourable weather Republic of Iran, Morocco, Turkey, and timely rain throughout the growing Ukraine and the USA and declined in season on much of the North China 2004 Argentina, Australia, Brazil, India, Plain. Corn production rose nearly Kazakhstan, Mexico, the Russian 9 per cent, from a combination of Federation and South Africa. increased area and higher yields. Despite spring dryness in parts of In Canada, wheat and barley produc- northern Manchuria, timely summer The objective of WMO’s Agricultural tion rose 10 and 7 per cent, respec- rainfall throughout Manchuria and the Meteorology Programme is to foster tively, due to a generally mild, wet North China Plain boosted yields. a better understanding by farmers weather pattern that dominated the and other users in the agriculture, Prairies for much of the spring and In the European Union, France, forestry and related sectors of the summer. This was a welcome change Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the use and value of weather and from recent years of drought and United Kingdom account for about climate information in planning and untimely dryness, while long-term 80 per cent of total wheat production. operational activities. This article, moisture conditions improved in many In 2004, growing-season weather based on information provided by the previously dry growing areas. As a returned to normal after the harsh United States Department of result of late plantings and below- winter, drought and summer heatwave Agriculture’s Joint Agricultural normal summer temperatures, how- of 2003. There were some lingering Weather Facility, illustrates how ever, crops lagged behind the normal problems with dryness from the 2003 weather and climate information can pace of development throughout the drought for winter grain planting in the be used to assist agricultural region for most of the growing season. United Kingdom but, for the most decision-makers. An earlier-than-normal autumn freeze part, seasonable autumn rainfall resulted in some damage and quality provided adequate soil moisture for its The following is an annual review of regional crop production, comparing 2004 with the previous year. For both the northern and southern hemispheres, these summaries reflect growing-season weather for crops that were harvested in the calendar year of 2004. For most countries, changes in production for 2004 are based on crop estimates released by the United States Department of Agriculture in February 2005.

Wheat and coarse grain

Increase in production World wheat production increased by No change in production 13 per cent over 2003. Wheat produc- Decrease in production No wheat production or statistics tion increased in Argentina, Canada, China, countries of the European Change in wheat production by country in 2004, compared with 2003

92 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 93

establishment. During the winter of 300 2003/2004, near-normal temperatures 250 and seasonable precipitation were a marked contrast to the wide tempera- 200 ture swings and winterkill events of the 2002/2003 winter. There were only 150 Cumulative isolated winterkill events during 2004, precipitation in north 100

occurring in south-east Poland and central Kazakhstan, Precipitation (mm) Normal Slovakia. Near-normal spring rainfall 50 1 May-30 September 2004 benefited reproductive winter grains. 2004. Some 75 per 2003 cent of Kazakhstan’s 0

spring wheat and Jul-5 Jun-5 Sep-3 Sep-8

There were no major problems with Jul-10 Jul-15 Jul-20 Jul-25 Jul-30 Aug-4 Aug-9 May-1 May-6 Jun-10 Jun-15 Jun-20 Jun-25 Sep-13 Sep-18 Sep-23 Sep-28 Aug-14 Aug-19 Aug-24 Aug-29 barley crops are May-11 May-16 May-26 May-31 harvesting, except for excessive Date August rain in the United Kingdom, grown in this region. which reduced production and quality. For the major producing countries, production increased 85, 65, and 50 Algeria, a 27 per cent reduction in wheat production increased 30, 10, per cent, respectively. Barley produc- wheat area more than offset increased 31, and 25 per cent from 2003 in tion increased 159, 50, and 111 per yields. Wheat production decreased France, the United Kingdom, Germany cent, respectively. nearly 13 per cent. In Algeria and and Poland, respectively. Morocco, barley production increased In Kazakhstan, most of the wheat by 7 and 5 per cent, respectively. In A return to favourable weather condi- grown in the country is of a spring vari- Tunisia, lower yields reduced produc- tions also caused European Union ety. Wheat production declined tion by 14 per cent. coarse grain production to increase sharply (14 per cent). In May, unsea- 22 per cent, with corn and barley sonably warm, dry weather prevailed In the Russian Federation, winter wheat production increasing 32 and 13 per throughout most of the country, help- is mostly grown in southern Russia and cent, respectively. Near-normal ing fieldwork for spring grain planting. in the southern areas of the central and summer rainfall and temperatures However, periodic heat prevailed Volga regions. Most of the spring wheat provided excellent growing conditions throughout most spring grain areas crop is grown from the Volga region after the drought and heatwave of during the month, causing rapid drying eastwards to the Siberia region. In 2004, 2003. Corn production increased 20- of topsoils. The dryness persisted growing conditions for the winter wheat 30 per cent across most of the throughout most of the major spring crop were considerably better than in European Union. Hungary reported a grain-producing areas of north-central 2003, resulting in an 80 per cent 74 per cent increase. Likewise, in Kazakhstan in June and July, reducing increase in production. In southern most European Union countries, yield prospects for crops as they Russia, wet weather in early September barley production increased 7-20 per progressed through the reproductive was followed by a drier weather pattern cent from the 2003 drought-stricken phase of development. While above- that prevailed during the remainder of crop. Only the United Kingdom and normal precipitation fell in some areas the month, aiding fieldwork for winter Lithuania reported barley production in early August, crops were not able to wheat planting, but lowering topsoil decreases of 7 and 13 per cent, recover fully from the earlier heat and moisture for crop establishment. respectively. Production declines in dryness.As a result, wheat production Nevertheless, mild weather and the United Kingdom were related to declined by 14 per cent and coarse adequate moisture in October and the loss in area due to excessive rain- grain production dropped 19 per cent. November favoured crop establishment, fall during harvest. Spring barley typically accounts for and crops entered dormancy in better about 80 per cent of Kazakhstan’s condition than the previous year. Favourable weather also returned to coarse grain production. south-eastern Europe, greatly increas- Unseasonably mild winter weather ing wheat and coarse grain production. In north-western Africa, the 2004 prevailed over most winter grain areas, In Bulgaria and Romania, wheat growing season rainfall was above providing favourable overwintering production increased 105 and 225 per average, although lower than in 2003. conditions. A few brief episodes of cent, respectively. In Romania, Serbia In both Morocco and Tunisia, wheat bitter cold spread over winter grain and Montenegro and Bulgaria, corn production increased by 7 per cent. In areas. In most cases, the extreme cold

93 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 94

was of short duration and occurred in area, although rainy harvest weather areas protected by adequate snow reportedly impacted grain quality. cover, minimizing the threat for signifi- Similarly, Brazilian corn production fell cant winterkill. In March, unusually about 6 per cent due to summer mild weather caused winter wheat in drought in the southern corn belt, but major producing areas to break an excellent winter corn crop in the dormancy one to two weeks earlier more northerly growing areas than usual. Near- to above-normal prevented larger declines. Winter precipitation favoured winter wheat wheat production remained virtually development in April and May. Major unchanged as increased area nearly winter wheat-producing areas in the offset lower yields. southern region experienced the second wettest June weather in at In Turkey, winter wheat and barley least the past 25 years, benefiting fill- production increased 5 and nearly ing wheat, but hampering the start of 3 per cent, respectively. In the Islamic large-scale winter wheat harvesting. Republic of Iran, favourable growing- Below-normal rainfall and unseason- season weather and a continued ably mild weather in May helped expansion in area boosted wheat fieldwork for spring wheat grain plant- Pakistan, as declining yields offset an production 9 per cent and made ing. Near- to above-normal June increase in area. another record year. precipitation favoured crop emergence and establishment. In the southern hemisphere, following In Ukraine, most of the wheat grown record production in 2003, Australian is of winter varieties. Dry weather in These weather conditions continued wheat production dipped approximately September delayed planting in some for spring wheat in Siberia, while hot, 18 per cent. As in the 2003 growing southern and eastern areas. dry weather developed in the Urals in season, generally favourable weather September’s dryness was followed by early July and persisted throughout helped autumn wheat development. In above-normal precipitation in October, key growth stages of the crop, reduc- western Australia, however, winter and which provided much-needed mois- ing yield prospects. The declines in spring rainfall was less abundant than in ture for winter grain emergence and crop prospects were not made up in 2003, causing slight declines in produc- establishment. In November, mild other areas that experienced more tion. More significantly, in eastern weather and adequate moisture favourable weather, resulting in a 4 per Australia, untimely heat and dryness continued to favour crop establish- cent decline in spring wheat produc- stressed wheat during the heading and ment and winter grains entered tion over the previous year. Coarse filling stages of development, causing dormancy during the second half of grain production in Russia declined by more substantial declines in production. the month in much better condition 3 per cent, due mainly to unusually In South Africa, wheat production rose than the previous year. Unseasonably high winterkill in key rye-producing 17 per cent, mostly from increased area. mild weather prevailed over winter areas and a 7 per cent decline in spring Yield increases were marginal, as grow- grain areas, providing favourable over- barley production. Spring barley is ing-season weather disappointed wintering conditions. grown throughout most of Russia. In farmers for the second consecutive contrast, ideal corn growing-season season. Winterkill for winter grains was report- weather in key areas helped raise edly below average at 5 per cent, well production 64 per cent. In contrast, timely summer rains led to below the 65 per cent of the previous higher South African corn yields, winter. Unusually mild weather in In southern Asia, an increase in both although production was only slightly March prompted winter grains to area and yield resulted in an 11 per higher because of lower acreage. break dormancy one to two weeks cent jump in winter wheat. Indian Argentine corn production fell 10 per earlier than usual. Dryness returned to coarse grain production fell about cent as a lingering spring drought in southern and eastern winter grain 20 per cent, as sporadic monsoon major production areas fuelled reduc- areas in March and April, but was showers led to a drop in planted area tions in both area and yield. Winter followed by timely rain in May, bene- and a 10 per cent reduction in overall wheat production rose about 19 per fiting winter grains in the high- yields. Production fell slightly in cent due to an increase in yield and moisture and temperature-sensitive

94 BLTN 54/2 17/06/05 12:42 Page 95

reproductive phase of development. cent, despite higher yields, as Although wet weather in early July harvested area fell over 20 per cent. hampered early harvest activities, Brazilian farmers also experienced a mostly dry weather during the second disappointing season, with production half of the month allowed activities to levels similar to 2003, in spite of the accelerate. Overall, winter wheat fifth consecutive year of record production rose by more than 450 per planted area. The lowest yields since cent above the previous year, when 1998 were the result of untimely severe winter weather and spring dryness in major production areas and drought damaged most of the crop. the spread of Asian Rust in the more Coarse grain production increased by northerly growing areas. 47 per cent, with barley and corn production increasing by 62 per cent In China, consistent spring rainfall and and 29 per cent, respectively. The increased area boosted winter rape- sharp increase in production for these seed production by 5 per cent. crops was a result of ideal growing Additionally, soybean production was conditions. up nearly 17 per cent due in part to favourable weather throughout the In the USA, wheat production (winter, growing season in Manchuria and the reduced area, despite favourable spring and durum) fell 8 per cent. North China Plain. weather that increased yields. Despite timely spring rains in many wheat-producing areas, long-term In the European Union, total oilseed In India, total oilseed production drought and subsoil moisture short- production increased 22 per cent due remained virtually unchanged in 2004. ages reduced wheat-yield potential to improved weather. A 32 per cent Winter rapeseed production dropped across parts of the High Plains. US increase in rapeseed production greatly 6 per cent from last year’s record corn production was up 17 per cent offset a nearly 6 per cent decline in levels, despite a slightly larger area. from the record established in 2003. sunflowerseed production. Rapeseed Summer oilseed production was Mid-western growing-season weather production increased 43 per cent in mixed, as many major production was nearly ideal, with abundant rainfall Germany and 14 per cent in France, areas were affected by periods of and minimal heat stress. following a return to seasonable untimely dryness, including some weather after the severe drought and during the height of the planting heatwave of 2003. Only the United season. Soybean production, which is Oilseed Kingdom reported an almost 10 per concentrated in parts of central India, cent decline in rapeseed production, most affected by the erratic start to World oilseed production rose 16 per partly due to excessive rainfall during the 2004 monsoon season, declined cent in 2004. Oilseed production harvest. Sunflowerseed production 4 per cent, as higher acreage offset a increased in Brazil, Canada, China, the declined in many countries due to projected 20 per cent drop from the European Union, India, Indonesia and the USA and declined in Argentina, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. 800 700

At the start of the growing season in 600

Argentina, lingering drought in 500 Cordoba disrupted corn planting, and soybeans went into most of the late 400 planted farmland. However, the 300

impact of late-season dryness in east- Precipitation (mm) 200 Normal ern growing areas, exacerbated by the 100 2004 Cumulative overall lateness of the crop, lowered 2003 precipitation for Rio 0 soybean production by about 4 per Grande Do Sul, Jan-1 Jan-5 Jan-9 Apr-3 Apr-7 Feb-2 Feb-6 Mar-2 Mar-6

cent, despite record acreage. Similarly, Jan-13 Jan-17 Jan-21 Jan-25 Jan-29 Brazil, 1 January- Apr-11 Apr-15 Apr-19 Apr-23 Apr-27 Feb-10 Feb-14 Feb-18 Feb-22 Feb-26 Mar-25 Mar-30 Mar-10 Mar-14 Mar-18 Mar-22 Mar-26 Mar-30 sunflower production dropped 14 per Date 30 April 2004

95 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 96

2003 record yields. Peanut (groundnut) production suffered only slight declines in yield and production, mainly due to above-normal monsoon rainfall in Gujarat and timely, late- season rains in important growing areas of India’s southern interior.

In North America, US soybean production was the highest on record, up 28 per cent from 2003. Generally favourable growing-season conditions in major mid-western and southern soybean-producing areas led to this sharp increase. In Canada, rapeseed (canola) rose 13 per cent as both area and yield continued to rebound from the past several seasons of prairie drought. Similarly, soybean production season while rice was still in the filling favourable weather conditions during jumped 35 per cent to record levels stage of development. In Viet Nam, rice the growing season and harvest due to record acreage and near- production remained virtually unchanged resulted in a 22 per cent increase in optimal growing conditions in Ontario. from the previous year. In China, rice cotton production. production rose over 12 per cent, due In the Russian Federation, although to increases in area and yield. In the southern hemisphere, growing-season weather conditions Australian cotton production increased were mostly favourable for the 1 per cent. Similar to the 2003 growing sunflower crop, yields declined slightly Cotton season, well-below normal rainfall was from the previous year. In Ukraine, less measured across much of eastern favourable weather together with lower World cotton production increased Australia. As a result, recovery from harvested area resulted in a 28 per cent about 23 per cent. Cotton production the devastating drought of 2002 decline in sunflower production. increased in Argentina, Brazil, China, remained slow, limiting soil moisture India, Turkey, the USA and Uzbekistan. and irrigation supplies. In Argentina, production jumped 79 per cent, due to Rice In the northern hemisphere, produc- a huge increase in area. Brazilian tion in China increased by 30 per cent. cotton production rose 50 per cent World rice production rose 3 per cent. Despite wet weather in Shandong at from a combination of larger area and Rice production increased throughout the end of the season, yields record yields. Both Argentina and most of South-East Asia, but overall increased 18 per cent. In India, produc- Brazil recorded their largest cotton production fell in South Asia. tion rose 16 per cent, due to increased acreage since the 1990s. area and yield. Production in Pakistan In India, production was down slightly rose 48 per cent with significant by 1 per cent, despite an increase in increases in both yield and area. yield. Planted acreage fell an estimated Turkish production increased by nearly 1.5 million hectares because of the poor 4 per cent due to favourable weather. start to the monsoon. Production US cotton production was up 26 per dropped about 3 per cent in Bangladesh, cent from 2003 and reached a record which was plagued by flooding for much high. Most of the US cotton belt expe- of the season. Pakistan recorded an rienced favourable growing and increase of about 2 per cent due to harvest conditions, although excessive slightly higher yields. In Thailand, wetness caused local concerns across production dipped by over 3 per cent, the southern plains and the western due in part to an early end to the wet Gulf Coast region. In Uzbekistan,

96 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 97

was located near latitude 17.5°N, Effectiveness of warning system longitude 76.9°W, i.e. some 56 km south of Kingston, Jamaica. It was Before Ivan forecast to affect the Cayman Islands Hurricane the following day. A hurricane warn- With excellent cooperation from the ing was issued at this time. Another media, the National Hurricane Ivan’s impact undesired development was the Committee of the Cayman Islands considerable reduction in forward (NHCCI) began issuing information to speed of the system from 29-32 km/h the public 72 hours prior to Ivan’s on the to 13-16 km/h. arrival. The effectiveness of this collaboration enabled the voluntary Cayman Islands Hurricane Ivan affected the Cayman evacuation of some 5 000 people from Islands from the afternoon of Friday, the islands and nearly all hurricane 11 September until the evening of shelters were filled to capacity by the Monday, 13 September. Although evening of Saturday, 11 September. hurricane-force winds began affecting Grand Cayman from around The NHCCI, through the Government 01h00 on Sunday, the centre of this Information Service, issued regular slow moving and very large hurri- bulletins from the National Meteoro- cane—diameter about 645 km— logical Service (NMS) on the crossed within 34 km of the island of functioning of the system, as well as Grand Cayman as a strong advice on what actions residents were Category 4/borderline Category 5 required to take to protect life and storm, around 10h00 on Sunday, property. The fact that all media 12 September, with maximum outlets carried these bulletins from a sustained winds of 250 km/h (meas- single official source is believed to Hurricane Ivan moves towards the Cayman ured and reported by hurricane have played a major role in the effec- Islands on 11 September 2004 (image: NOAA). hunter aircraft). tive public response that followed.

By Fred Sambula, Director, Meteorological Services, Cayman Islands Ivan’s progress over Grand Cayman

The hurricane • Storm surge, estimated at 2.5-3 m breached far inland in many areas and covered some parts of the island for several hours between late Ivan developed from a fast moving 11 September and the morning of 12 September depression that formed in the eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde • Winds of 120 km/h and higher blew for about 15 hours with sustained Islands on 2 September 2004. The winds of over 160 km/h for seven hours on Sunday. For two of these system became the 2004 season’s hours, the winds were at their highest speeds of 225–250 km/h. (An ninth named storm on 3 September automatic weather observing station (AWOS) on the western end of (centred south-west of the Cape the island recorded sustained wind speeds of 241 km/h with a peak Verde Islands) and was upgraded to gust of 274 km/h around 10h00; another AWOS over central Grand the fifth named hurricane (centred Cayman reported sustained wind speeds of 234-250 km/h with a peak some 1 950 km east-southeast of the gust of 306 km/h). This led to widespread damage and destruction Lesser Antilles, at 09h00 on 5 September). At 03h00 on • Widespread saltwater flooding caused damage in many single-storey 8 September, the Government of the buildings and up to the first floor of many higher buildings. Cayman Islands issued a hurricane watch. By 03h00 on 10 September, the eye of Category 5 hurricane Ivan

97 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 98

During Ivan further information could be issued to plan and that Jamaica would take over the public about the system’s progress. forecasting and responsibilities for the The NMS continued to issue the latest The only way information on the system Cayman Islands. The lack of telecom- information, to the public, through the was obtained was via intermittent satel- munications into the Cayman Islands, NHCCI and the Government lite phone calls to NHC Miami. however, meant that no information Information Service. By midnight, elec- could be received from Jamaica. trical power was lost throughout the After Ivan island and telecommunications were The recovery effort required airline lost at around 05h00 on Sunday, Damage assessment on Monday, flights into the Island during daytime 12 September, after the first storm 13 September, after the passage of hours and these flights needed surge from the North Sound breached the hurricane, revealed a total infra- weather observations. To accomplish the main telecommunications station structure failure of telecom- this, the meteorological observer was and the Government Radio Station munications and other utilities. A temporarily stationed at the control went down. cellular telephone service was quickly tower. This situation lasted nearly three restored, however, by one provider, weeks before the Meteorological The emergency power units at the enabling an occasional call outside the Office could gradually resume fore- telecommunications headquarters, the Cayman Islands. casting and other operations from its Government Radio Station and the permanent premises. Emergency Operations Centre enabled The Meteorological Office was continued Internet access that allowed breached by 60-90 cm of saltwater and for reception and broadcast of the latest most equipment was non-functional. Damage and recovery information on Ivan from the National Via a telephone conversation with the Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami Director of the Jamaica Meteorological The table below gives a summary of through the night. However, after the Service, it was agreed to operate in meteorological data on Ivan’s passage telecommunications went down, no accordance with the regional hurricane through the Cayman Islands.

Grand Cayman Little Cayman Cayman Brac

Wind (sustained) 241 km/h (AWOS WB) 119 km/h 82 km/h 10h00, 12 September Wind (peak) 274 km/h (AWOS WB) N/A 108 km/h 10h00, 12 September Rainfall 305 mm: 19h00, 11 September- N/A 125 mm: 19h00, 12 September- 07h00, 13 September 07h00, 13 September Minimum pressure Below 970 hpa N/A 997 hpa Storm surge Estimated approx. 2.5-3 m – – Wave heights (breaking) 6-9 m – – (observed estimates) Duration of winds >160 km/h 7 hours N/A N/A First 160 km/h wind 06h00, 12 September N/A N/A Last 160 km/h wind 13h00, 12 September N/A N/A Duration of hurricane winds 13 hours 2 hrs N/A First hurricane winds 04h00, 12 September 04.00, 12 September N/A Last hurricane winds 17h00, 12 September 06h00,12 September N/A Duration of tropical storm winds 41 hours 31 hours 30 hours First tropical storm winds 13h00, 11 September 08h00, 11 September 07h00, 11 September Last tropical storm winds 06h00, 13 September 15h00, 12 September 13h00, 12 September

98 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:31 Page 99

Nine people were trapped here from 08h00– Total collapse of an apartment complex Cars under water under portico at a school 18h00 on Sunday before rescue.

One-metre surge struck this hydrogen Wave erosion on coastal road A parking lot generator room (elevation 1.8 m). Some of the impacts of Ivan in Grand Cayman

Damage assessment indicated roof damage reconstruction, has been Cyclone Programme Report No. damage to most premises on Grand quoted by the national Government. 30/WMO-TD No. 494), proved quite Cayman with total failure of a few older As of early November 2004, piped effective for our national prepared- structures. A report by the UN Economic water was restored to 100 per cent of ness and mitigation efforts for Commission for Latin America and the the Island and approximately 85 per hurricane Ivan. The excellent cooper- Caribbean reveals that the damage in cent of electrical power. By mid- ation and coordination between the the Caymans from Ivan was greater December 2004, this figure was 100 RSMC, Miami and the National than the total hurricane season damage per cent. Weather Service of the Cayman this year for the Bahamas, the Islands resulted in the timely issue Dominican Republic, Grenada and At the time of writing (April 2005), the of information for guiding decision- Jamaica combined. The total loss and meteorological infrastructure is still makers. The WMO Regional Plan damage are equivalent to two years of without an AWOS located at the emphasizes regional cooperation and Cayman’s GDP at US$ 94 625 per resi- airport but the high-resolution satellite this was highlighted when Jamaica dent. The total impact of the hurricane receiving system, which was also lost expeditiously assumed responsibility on three major sectors—social, produc- during the storm, has now been for forecasts and warnings for the tive and infrastructure—is around replaced and is in operation. With the Cayman Island, when telecommuni- US$ 3.5 billion. Over 80 per cent of the exception of the upper-air system, cations within the Islands failed impact was in damage to, and destruc- other meteorological operations have completely. tion of, property, with housing suffering either been fully restored or are near- most. The remaining 20 per cent repre- ing total restoration. Some conclusions and recommenda- sents future financial losses as a result tions from the Ivan experience are: of the damage inflicted (e.g. restoration of accommodation). Conclusions and recommendations The NMS provided proper and timely information to enable an effective Fortunately, only two fatalities associ- The WMO RA IV (North America, warning and preparation system ated with this hurricane were Central America and the Caribbean) from one official source, i.e. the reported. A sum of US$ 2.8 billion for Hurricane Operational Plan (Tropical National Hurricane Committee of the

99 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 100

Cayman Islands (NHCCI). Coupled with excellent media collaboration, the message reached the public, who prepared accordingly and only two lives were lost.

There is a need for a purpose-built meteorological facility and to reinforce the supporting infrastructure, such that failure of this function is kept to an extreme minimum.

Two of the most effective and reliable tools in hurricane tracking and forecasting, i.e. a weather radar and a storm-surge model, were notice- ably absent from our preparedness and mitigation arsenal. Every effort must be made to obtain these as they will significantly improve the quality of warning information provided by the NMS for decision- making for preparedness and mitigation.

This event proved that the NMS is capable of offering effective early warnings on severe weather to the nation.

There is a need to have a robust telecommunications and information communication and technology network capable of affording reliable operations before, during and after storm events.

The Government should be encour- aged to take a more active role in ensuring the health and sustainabil- ity of weather services for the nation. In hurricane-prone countries, such as the Cayman Islands, there is a need to ensure that early warnings of natural disasters become an integral part of government policy and that they form an effective instru- ment for preventive strategies.

100 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 101

Visits of the Secretary- General

The Secretary-General, Mr Michel Jarraud, recently made official visits to a number of Member countries as briefly reported below. He wishes to place on record his gratitude to those Members for the kindness and hospi- Brussels, 16 February 2005 — The third Earth Observation Summit tality extended to him.

France Research Programme, the Inter- the sixth session of the Group on governmental Panel on Climate Earth Observations and the third At the invitation of HE Mr Jacques Change and the Global Climate Earth Observation Summit (EOS- Chirac, President of France, Observing System, as well as part- III), which were held from Mr M. Jarraud visited France on nerships with international organiza- 14-15 February and on 16 February 15 February 2005. He participated tions in addressing climate change 2005, respectively. He took the in a roundtable discussion on issues. The need to support regional opportunity to have wide-ranging climate-related issues with the and global initiatives on climate moni- discussions with the Co-chairs and President, high-level scientists and toring and research was also raised. delegates to the Summit on decision-makers. WMO’s potential support to the implementation of a Global Earth The Secretary-General highlighted Group on Earth Observations Observing System of Systems WMO’s contributions and the role of (sixth session) and third Earth (GEOSS). Among the major National Meteorological and Hydro- Observation Summit outcomes of EOS-III was the logical Services (NMHSs) in climate decision that the GEO Secretariat monitoring and research activities, The Secretary-General visited would be located at WMO support to the World Climate Brussels (Belgium) on the occasion of Headquarters.

St Petersburg, Russian Federation — Participants in the 13th session of the Commission for Basic Systems (23 February-3 March 2005)

101 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 102

Vaisala Oyj, made the presentation. The Secretary-General thanked the Permanent Representative of The Netherlands with WMO, Dr Frits Brouwer, for hosting this ceremony and for the support of his Govern- ment to the Programmes and activities of WMO.

Arab Permanent Meteorological Committee of the League of Arab States—21st session

The Secretary-General visited Doha, Qatar, on the occasion of the 21st De Bilt, The Netherlands, 10 April 2005 — Presentation of the 19th Dr Vilho Vaisala Award session of the Arab Permanent Mete- (from left to right): Dr Frits J.J. Brouwer, Permanent Representative of The Netherlands with orological Committee of the League WMO; Dr Iwan Holleman and Mr Hans Beekius (the two prizewinners); Mr Kenneth Forss, of Arab States. Mr Jarraud addressed Director of the Instruments Division of Vaisala Oyj; and Mr Michel Jarraud the opening session on 15 March 2005, in the presence of Mr Abdul Commission for Basic Systems— number of issues concerning WMO Aziz Mohamad Al-Noaimi, Chairman 13th session with Dr Bedritsky. and Managing Director of the Civil Aviation Authority; Mr Mourad Mr Jarraud addressed the 13th ses- Shawki Saadallah, Chairman of the sion of the Commission for Basic Nineteenth Dr Vilho Vaisala Award Arab Permanent Meteorological Com- Systems (CBS-XIII), which was held mittee of the League of Arab States; in St Petersburg (Russian Federation) The Secretary-General visited De Bilt Mr Ashraf Noor Eldean Ali, Represen- from 23 February to 3 March 2005. (The Netherlands) for the presenta- tative of the League of Arab States HE Mme Valentina Matvienko, Gover- tion of the 19th Dr Vilho Vaisala Secretariat; and Mr Ahmed Abdulla nor of St Petersburg, and Dr Alexan- Award to Dr Iwan Holleman and Mr Mohammed, Acting Director of the der Bedritsky, Head of the Russian Hans Beekius. Meteorological Department and Per- Federal Service for Hydrometeorology manent Representative of Qatar with and Environmental Monitoring, Per- The award ceremony took place on WMO. manent Representative of the Russ- 10 April 2005 at the Royal Nether- ian Federation with WMO, and Presi- lands Meteorological Institute. Mr Mr M. Jarraud took the opportunity to dent of the Organization, were Jarraud and Mr Kenneth Forss, Direc- exchange views with the permanent present at the opening ceremony. tor of the Instruments Division of representatives of WMO Members

Mr Jarraud presented the WMO/CBS Certificate award to Mr Hubert Allard (Canada) and Mr Stefan Mildner (Germany) for their long and lasting contributions to the work of the Commission.

The Secretary-General exchanged views with delegates on the increasing role of CBS in support of various Doha, Qatar, March 2005 — The Secretary-General with (from left to right): Dr Saeed Al- WMO Programmes and the strength- Sulaiman, Director of Academic Affairs and Registration; Mr Ali Ibrahim Al-Malki, Principal of ening of national capacities. He also Qatar Aeronautical College; and Mr Eisa Al-Majed, Director, WMO Regional Office for Asia took the opportunity to discuss a and the South-West Pacific

102 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 103

present at the session, on the strengthening of the NMHSs and their relationship with WMO.

The first Qatar International Exhibition on Meteorology Techniques, co-sponsored by WMO, was held in Doha on 20 and 21 March 2005. Mr Jarraud opened the Exhibition with Mr Abdul Aziz Mohamad Al-Noaimi.

Mr Jarraud met with the Director- General of Qatar Aeronautical Col- lege, Mr Ali Ibrahim Al-Malki, and discussed issues relating to education and training in aviation meteorology. The Secretary-General also visited the Qatar Foundation for Education, Science and Community Develop- ment, where he was briefed on the activities of the Foundation. San José, Costa Rica, 5 April 2005 — Participants in the 14th session of Regional Association IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean)

France most severe tropical cyclone seasons cooperation between Costa Rica The Secretary-General visited France ever in the Caribbean. and WMO. on 21 March 2005 and met with HE Mr Michel Barnier, Minister of For- The Secretary-General also met with eign Affairs. They exchanged views Regional Association IV—14th the permanent representatives of on a wide range of subjects of inter- session WMO Members attending the meet- est to France and WMO, including ing and discussed issues related to natural disaster prevention, water- The Secretary-General addressed the the strengthening of their NMHSs resources management, climate opening ceremony of the 14th ses- and their relationship with WMO. change and marine meteorological sion of Regional Association IV services. The Secretary-General (North America, Central America and expressed his appreciation to France the Caribbean), which was held in United Nations Chief Executives for its continuous support to WMO’s San José (Costa Rica) from 5 to Board for Coordination Programmes and activities, in particu- 13 April 2005. lar that provided through Météo- The Secretary-General participated in France. Mr Jarraud had the opportunity to the United Nations Chief Executives meet with HE Mrs Lineth Saborío, Board for Coordination (CEB), which Vice-President of Costa Rica; Dr met on 9 April 2005 at Mont Pèlerin, Regional Association (RA) IV Hurri- Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Echever- Switzerland. The meeting considered cane Committee—27th session ría, Minister of the Environment and the follow-up to the Millennium Dec- Energy; and Dr Roberto Tovar, Min- laration, as well as preparations for The 27th session of the RA IV Hurri- ister of Foreign Affairs. The Secre- the 2005 Summit to be held in Sep- cane Committee was held in San tary-General discussed WMO’s tember at UN Headquarters, New José (Costa Rica) from 31 March to activities in the Region, in particular, York. The Board also discussed UN 5 April 2005. The Secretary-General those carried out in cooperation system support for the New Partner- addressed the closing ceremony and with the National Meteorological ship for Africa’s Development discussed with delegates the events Institute of Costa Rica, and the (NEPAD); a system-wide strategy on of 2004, which had seen one of the strengthening of the excellent conflict prevention; and preparations

103 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 104

for the second phase of the World UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceano- Summit on the Information Society, graphic Commission, Dr P. Bernal, scheduled to be held in Tunis and the Director of the UN Interna- (Tunisia), from 16 to 18 November tional Strategy for Disaster Reduc- 2005. The Secretary-General took the tion, Mr S. Briceño, on multi-hazard opportunity to coordinate the UN sys- prevention and early warning system position with respect to the tems, with particular reference to the Group on Earth Observations with the tsunami early warning system to be Executive Heads of FAO, UNESCO implemented in the Indian Ocean. and UNEP. Mr Jarraud provided President Clinton The CEB also exchanged views on a with background information on wide range of additional issues of hydrometeorological hazards and the interest to the UN system organiza- capabilities for early warning of tions, such as increased support to National Meteorological and Hydro- Members, such as coordinated sup- logical Services of WMO Members, port at the national level, enhanced with special emphasis on the culture synergy and greater transparency in of prevention. operations.

Briefing for the UN Special Envoy for Tsunami Recovery

On 12 April 2005 in New York, the UN Special Envoy for Tsunami Recovery in Asia, President W. Clinton, was briefed, at his invitation, by the Secre- tary-General of WMO, Mr M. Jarraud, the Executive Secretary of the

United Nations Headquarters, New York, 13 April 2005 — The Special Envoy for Tsunami Recovery, President W. Clinton, at a press conference with UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan

104 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 105

ble to make savings of 50 per cent of resources that will be needed to produce water, while almost quadrupling output. the cars but also the energy to be used in them and the waste products produced. Book In the final section, attention is drawn to one of the messages of the United A third factor is the possible desire to Nations World Water Development migrate to another country where the reviews Report that, by the year 2025, the standard of living seems, and may be, world could be faced with a severe better. What will be the effects of water shortage that could lead to a increases in migrations on water reduction in food production; and that, resources? A fourth factor is the The Atlas of by 2050, 4 billion people could be increasing amount of man-made Water—mapping living in countries that are chronically chemicals that are discharged into the world's most short of water. It is suggested that rivers, estuaries and the sea. The critical resource much could be achieved by using effects on wildlife although still impre- Robin Clarke and water more productively as a result of cisely known, are likely to be negative, Jannet King. radical changes in water management. especially for aquatic mammals. Earthscan, London (2004). 127 pp. In looking to the future, however, The Atlas of Water makes no mention numerous illustrations in colour. neither the Atlas of Water nor the UN of the WMO or of the lead taken by ISBN 1-84407-133-2. Price: £12.99. World Water Development Report has the Organization in the collection of given much consideration to the fact data on water, nor is any WMO publi- This useful atlas should be on the desk that approximately half the present cation given as a “useful source”. of everyone concerned with the the global population now between the provision, conservation and optimal ages of one day and 16 years, will Mike Baker use of freshwater resources. It gives a mature and can be expected to seek [email protected] wealth of information in comparatively better standards of living and to have few pages. Statistics are presented in rather different patterns of resource table form and in double-page maps. use from their parents. Increased Desert Meteorology Although some of these maps have access to imagery of how people live insets with parts of the world in in the industrialized world can have Thomas T. Warner, greater detail, some of the information major impacts on desires for different, Cambridge is difficult to read, particularly at the if not necessarily better, nutrition, University Press division between the two pages. This transport and way of life generally. (2004); xvi + 595 pp. design, which seems to be more ISBN 0-52181798-6. concerned with prettiness than legibil- For nutrition, the amount of water Price: £80/US$ 120. ity, does not facilitate the task of required to produce 1 kg of cereal is reading, particularly for those with about 1.5 m3, of poultry 6 m3 and of reading difficulties or with colour- beef 15 m3. Changes from tortilla and This book is a welcome addition to the vision problems. beans to a beefburger, for example, will scientific works on dryland issues initi- have significant effects on water use. For ated in the 1950s by the UNESCO arid The intention of the publication, in addi- transport, to take but one example, China zone programme. Its title expands the tion to the presentation of the at present has about eight cars per 1 000 concept of meteorology (physics of information on the global problems of residents (compared with 122 in Brazil the lower troposphere) to encompass access to adequate water, seems to be and 940 in the USA) but, from 1 million in almost all elements of ecology: the to draw attention to the possibilities of 1990, the estimate is that it will be 20 chapters of the book present a rich reducing water consumption and of 14 million before the end of 2005. If the range of material. Because of this increasing the efficiency of water use in same rate of growth continues until admirably broad range, chapters often a number of areas. This has already 2025, there will be more than 30 million, contain a degree of repetition, requir- been done in some countries with but a semi-official estimate is that there ing the reader to do some inter-chapter regard to agricultural use, for example, will be more than 140 million. In reflect- cross-referencing. The sequence of by using drip irrigation, and particularly ing on this one has to take into chapters may also be a distraction but industrial use, where it has been possi- consideration not only the prime not a serious one.

105 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 106

The three principal areas covered are: managing global environment issues, in a commendable style of clear and well- desertification was not considered to illustrated text. Because climate studies • The physics of atmospheric dynam- be a global environment issue to be depend on the science of physics, the ics that relate to microscale included with protecting the ozone presentation includes mathematical (interface between air and surface layer; limiting emission of greenhouse equations (and models) but the author and subsurface features of the gases; protection of biodiversity; and handles this in a way that keeps the ground), meso- and macroscale protection of international waters. The book accessible for a broad readership, continental or ecogeographical units position of GEF towards desertification which is an added merit. has mellowed since 2002. Some chap- • Ecological interactions of biota, ters of this book explain the scientific A set of appendices adds to the utility including human beings, with the basis for this change in attitude. of the text. The list of references, elements of the desert system though rich, misses several useful and Two chapters address issues of inter- relevant publications, examples: • Impacts of desert processes on actions of vegetation with, and Interactions of Desertification and global climate and the worldwide impacts of humans on, dryland Climate, by M.A.J. Williams and R.-C. geography of deserts. ecosystems. Advanced students of Balling, 1996, WMO/UNEP; Atlas of desert ecology will find here sources African Rainfall and its Interannual The geography of climatic aridity of ideas. One chapter addresses the Variability, by S.E. Nicholson, J. Kim (causes) is explained and forces that question of human adaptation to a and J. Hoopingarner, 1988, Florida may drive climate change are reviewed, desert environment that is dry and State University. as are likely impacts of desert environ- austere. ment, particularly dust, on atmospheric This is a reference book that deserves processes. This is a comprehensive Two chapters deal with desert rainfall: acclaim. It does indeed present an “in- coverage. a climatic feature that controls the depth review of [desert] meteorology ecological features of deserts. Paucity and climate … desert geomorphology, The global dimension of impacts of and wide-scale variability make water desert hydrologic systems, and desert deserts and processes of dryland resources poor and non-predictable. thermal energy budget”. It provides degradation (desertification) caused Excess may cause floods that can be excellent text and teaching material: primarily by human overexploitation, destructive: this is the dilemma of each chapter ends with “questions for has relevance to issues of international desert inhabitants and desert biota. review” and “problems and exer- governance of global environmental Recurrent drought is the most damag- cises”, as well as hints to solving issues. When the World ing environmental menace for some of the problems and exercises. Bank/UNDP/UNEP envisaged the inhabitants of the world’s drylands. establishment of a Global Environment M. Kassas Facility (GEF) in 1991 as a financial The text is based on solid science and [email protected] mechanism in support of schemes for the author presents his diverse material

106 BLTN 54/2 17/06/05 12:42 Page 107

Primer on climate trace elements, and hazardous change and substances in our oceans and shelf sustainable seas—from local to planetary scales. New books development—facts, These processes buffer climate policy analysis and changes and are centrally important received applications for regional to global ecosystem Mohan Munasinghe dynamics. and Rob Swart. Cambridge University Press (2005). The book is divided into eight parts, The basis of civilization—Water ISBN 0-521-00888-3. xii + 445 pp. covering turbulence in relation to strat- science? Price: £30. ification, waves and intermittence; observational techniques for field stud- John C. Rodda and This Primer on climate change and ies; selected computural means for the Lucio Ubertini (Eds.). sustainable development gives an up- study of turbulence, boundary layers; International to-date, comprehensive and accessible practical case-studies in estuaries, Association of overview of the links between climate fjords, lakes and shelf seas, and at the Hydrological Sciences. change and sustainable development. shelf edge; small scale three-dimen- IAHS Publication 286. Building on the main findings of the sional turbulence and quasi- ISBN 1-901502-57-0 last series of Intergovernmental Panel two-dimensional turbulence occurring x + 342 pp. on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment on the planetary scale, and an Price: £58.50. reports, in which both authors were overview of comprehensive data sets involved, the book summarizes the and models codes. The introduction explores the linkages latest research linking the two. Our between hydrology and society current knowledge of the basic throughout history and outlines the science of climate change is slow development of water technol- described, before moving on to the ogy and the even slower development future scenarios of development of water science. Other authors within the context of climate change. provide specific examples of the rise The authors identify opportunities for of understanding of water science. synergies and resolving potential trade-offs. Discussing theory, policy The impact of water resources devel- analysis and applications, they analyse opment and management on society effective implementation of climate is discussed from political, economic policy at scales ranging from global to and cultural viewpoints. The the local. approaches to risk and conflict involving water are considered in detail: Marine intellectual and philosophical inspira- turbulence—theories, tion and discursive politics in the observations and changing role of risk awareness are models (Results of central to any analysis of how future the CARTUM Project) water policy-making will be made. Helmut Z. Baumert, Issues of governance, past and pres- John H. Simpson and ent are also reviewed. Jürgen Sündermann (Eds.). Cambridge University Press (2005). ISBN 0-521-83789-8. Price: £175/US$ 275.

This books gives a comprehensive overview of measurement techniques and theories for marine turbulence and mixing of greenhouse gases, nutrients,

107 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 108

WMO-IOS takes Earth World Meteorological Organization observations, Integrated Global Observing System processes them (WMO-IOS) WMO Integrated together to la Reunión Técnica build products and a core component of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) deliver tools to decision makers for helping to make informed decisions Global Observing for the needs (Proceedings of the of society. System (WMO-IOS) Third Regional [E] Technical meeting Recently 8 pp. on CLIPS and Agrometeorological

The Integrated Global Observing System of WMO, The WMO-IOS takes decades of experience and services integrating: Applications for the issued Observations: space, atmosphere, land, and oceans Data: a wide variety of operational and research platforms Platforms: in situ and in space Earth observations, Time: past and present to help understand our future. Andean Countries) processes them to (WMO/TD No. 1234, build products and tools which help AGM-6) decision-makers respond to the needs iii + 221pp. For the full WMO catalogue of publica- of users. It is a core component of the [S] tions and how to order these and other Global Earth Observation System of Price: CHF 30. publications, see: Systems (GEOSS). This brochure http://www.wmo.ch/web/catalogue/ explains what the Integrated Global Observing System is and how it can WMO contribute effectively to activities in WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OF Statement on THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2004 almost all sectors of human endeav- the Status of our. The brochure is useful for the Global decision-makers, the media and the Climate in 2004 public. (WMO-No. 983)

World Meteorological Organization Weather • Climate • Water [E] - [F] – [R] - [S] WMO-No. 983 See 12 pp. http://www.wmo.ch/news/news.html Price: CHF 15. and click on the icon for the pdf version. Hard copies are available upon This year’s statement (WMO-No. 983) request from the WMO Secretariat. describes the climatic conditions, including extreme weather events, for Regional Association II (Asia), the year 2004 and provides a historical Thirteenth session—Abridged final perspective of some of the variability report with resolutions (2004) and trends that have occurred since (WMO-No. 981) the 19th century. The statement 116 pp. places 2004 as the fourth warmest [A] - [C] - [E] - [F] - [R] year in the temperature record since Price: CHF 25. 1861 and indicates that there has been a rise in global temperature greater Applications of Climate Forecasts than 0.6°C since 1900. for Agriculture. Proceedings of an Expert Group World Climate World Climate Research Programme: Meeting for 25 years of science Research serving society Regional Programme: Association I 25 years of science (Africa) serving society (WMO/TD-1223, [E] AGM-7) 24 pp. 198 pp.

WMO [E] This brochure was issued to mark the Price: CHF 30, 25th anniversary of the World Climate Research Programme. It can also be Servicios de Información y viewed in pdf form and downloaded Predicción del Clima (SIPC) y from the WCRP Website: http://www. Aplicaciones Agrometeorológicas wmo.ch/web/wcrp/news.htm para los Países Andinos: Actas de

108 BLTN 54/2 17/06/05 12:42 Page 109

Datius G. Rutashobya: Isabelle Rüedi: Scientific Officer in the Programme Hydrology Division of Coordination Officer, the Hydrology and World Weather Watch Water Resources Department, on Staff news Department on 1 February 2005 10 January 2005

Nina Maslina: Editor Robert J. Stefanski: (Russian language) in Scientific Officer in the the Linguistic Services Agricultural and Publications Appointments Meteorology Division of Department on the World Climate 17 February 2005 Philippe Dupraz: Programme Department Assistant Printing on 17 January 2005 Operator/Handyman in Robert Maire: the Printing and Maintenance Assistant Electronic Publications Xiaoxia (Anny) Zhang: in the Common Section of the Head of the Payroll and Services Division of the Conferences, Printing Pension Unit in the Resource Management and Distribution Human Resources Department on 1 April Department on 1 January 2005 Division of the 2005 Resource Management Department on Christian Giroud: 24 January 2005 Slobodan Nickovic Offset Operator in the Scientific Officer in the Printing and Electronic Edgard E. Cabrera: Environment Division of Publications Section of Chief of the Ocean the Atmospheric the Conferences, Affairs Division in the Research and Printing and Applications Programme Environment Distribution Department on Department on 17 April Department on 31 January 2005 2005 1 January 2005

Transfers Yvon Staub: Stock Herbert Lanz: Assistant Clerk in the Publications Webmaster, Nelly Conforty- Sales and Distribution Information Systems Ferreux, Interpreter/ Unit of the Printing and Division, Resource Translator in the Electronic Publications Management Linguistic Services and Section of the Department on Publications Conferences, Printing 1 February 2005 Department, was trans- and Distribution ferred to the Department on 1 January 2005 Conferences Services of Stuart J. Baldwin: the Conferences, Printing and Distri- Treasurer in the Finance bution Department on 1 February 2005. Division, Resource Management Department on 1 February 2005

109 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 110

Marc Peeters, formerly Anniversary Human Resources Officer, Resource Management Lucia Bertizzolo, Department, was trans- Procurement Assistant ferred to the in the Procurement and Conferences Services Travel Office of the of the Conferences, Resource Management Printing and Distribution Department on Department: 30 years 1 February 2005. on 4 March 2005

Michel Jardon was appointed to the post of Human Resources Assistant in the Entitlements and Administration Unit of the Human Resources Division, Resource Management Department, by transfer from the post of Human Resources Clerk in the Recruitment and Training Unit of the same Division on 1 March 2005.

Joanna Drake-Stewart was transferred from the post of Library Clerk in the Technical Library of the Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme Department to the post of Process Control Clerk in the Printing and Electronic Publications Section of the Conferences, Printing and Distribution Department on 1 March 2005.

Departure

Maria Kheir retired from her post of Senior Secretary in the Cabinet and External Relations Office of the Secretary-General’s Office on 31 January 2005.

110 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 111

meteorology, operational hydrology and He earned the respect of his related fields of its 16 Member States. colleagues for being witty, outspoken Bert Berridge was appointed as the first and honest. Some of his international Coordinating Director of the CMO. It was colleagues have written that he has left Obituaries in this capacity that he truly made his us all a grand legacy, including a model regional and international mark. He was for international collaboration and prac- instrumental in the development of the tical solutions. various new NMHSs and in the estab- Cyril Egbert Berridge lishment of a well-operated regional early His 52 years of dedicated service warning system for tropical storms, hurri- ended in 1999 with his retirement as canes and other severe weather events. Coordinating Director of the CMO. In Cyril Egbert recognition of his outstanding contri- Berridge, In the global arena, he attended his bution to the Caribbean in general, the former First first World Meteorological Congress in British Caribbean Territories in particu- Vice-President of 1971, representing Trinidad and Tobago. lar, and the entire global WMO, died at When he joined the CMO, he became meteorological and hydrological his home in Port the Permanent Representative of the communities, HM Queen Elizabeth II of Spain, Trinidad British Caribbean Territories with conferred on him the Order of the and Tobago, on WMO, and later for the island State of British Empire, which was presented 28 February Dominica. He attended every session to him in Port of Spain by HRH Prince 2005 at the age of Congress since that time and, in Charles on 22 February 2000. of 75. “Bert”, as he was commonly 1983, was elected to the WMO known, served the Caribbean and Executive Council (EC). He served two He is survived by his wife, Sylvia, four international meteorological and terms as president of WMO Regional sons and an adopted daughter. They hydrological communities with distinc- Association IV (North America, Central have lost a loved one, the Caribbean tion for 52 years. America and the Caribbean) between has lost a meteorological icon and the 1985 and 1993 and, at Twelfth WMO community has lost a true Bert started his career in meteorology Meteorological Congress (1995), he friend. as a weather observer with the British was elected First Vice-President of Caribbean Meteorological Service in WMO to serve from 1995 to 1999. Tyrone W. Sutherland 1947, rising through the ranks to become a weather forecaster in 1958. In these various capacities, Bert was He graduated with a B.Sc from Florida particularly active as a member of Dr William James Gibbs State University, USA, then served as several WMO committees, including Director of his Meteorological Service the RA IV Hurricane Committee (from Dr William James (Bill) Gibbs OBE, between 1970-1972 and as the its inception); the Financial Advisory Director of the Australian Bureau of Permanent Representative of Trinidad Committee (from its inception); the Meteorology from 1962 to 1978, First and Tobago with WMO. WMO Building Committee and the Vice-President of WMO from 1967 to Committee on follow-up to the UN 1975 and winner of the 27th IMO prize In 1972, the Caribbean Governments Conference on Environment and (1982), died in decided to establish the Caribbean Development. He served as Chairman Melbourne on 17 Meteorological Organization (CMO) as a of the EC Advisory Group of Experts March 2005, specialized agency of the Caribbean on Technical Cooperation and, for aged 88 years. Community (CARICOM) to replace the 10 years, was either an invitee or a Caribbean Meteorological Service. The member of the WMO Bureau. Dr Gibbs was CMO, comprising a ministerial-level born in Sydney Caribbean Meteorological Council, the Bert Berridge was a tireless supporter on 17 October CMO Headquarters, the Caribbean of WMO and was held in high regard in 1916. With the Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology international circles as an avid defender support of a fund (CIMH) and the Caribbean Meteorological of developing country interests. He for children whose fathers had been Foundation, coordinates the joint scien- was achievement-oriented, apolitical killed in action in World War I, he tific and technical activities in and unafraid to express contrary views. obtained his Bachelor’s degree from

111 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 112

Sydney University where he first imagery for analysis over the the Bureau. He is survived by his wife encountered meteorology and Southern Ocean and important Audrey, their children Jennifer, Judie, resolved to make it his career. national initiatives in water resources Gregory and Amanda and their families assessment, drought monitoring, and by a generation of Australian He joined the Bureau of Meteorology in tropical cyclone warning and numeri- meteorologists who were inspired by Sydney in 1939, went for training in cal weather prediction. Bill and by his life-long fascination with Melbourne in March 1940, married the atmosphere and its ways. Audrey Taylor in Sydney en route to a As Permanent Representative of two year posting in Port Moresby in Australia and member of the WMO John Zillman September 1940 and returned to the Executive Council from 1963 to 1978, role of staff meteorologist in General Bill played a leading role, along with MacArthur’s Allied Headquarters in close colleagues Dr Alf Nyberg, Dr Brisbane in July 1942. After the War, Bob White, Dr (now Sir) John Mason, he became heavily involved in tropical Dr Eric Sussenberger, Academician and Southern Ocean research and soon Federov and, in later years, Dr Roman had his first taste of international mete- Kintanar, in the scientific and techni- orology when he accompanied his then cal work of WMO, especially on Director, Mr H.N. Warren, to the 1947 climate change, for which he chaired Washington DC Conference of the Executive Committee Panel Directors, which finalized the WMO whose report led to the convening of Convention. A few years later, as a the (First) World Climate Conference Harkness Fellow, he had the opportu- in 1979. I was privileged to accom- nity for two years’ study for his Masters pany him to his last WMO Congress degree in the US, at the Massachusetts in 1975 and to see, through his exam- Institute of Technology. ple, how international cooperation in meteorology can do great good in the Back in Australia, Bill rose quickly world. through the ranks to be appointed Assistant Director of Research in the Following his retirement as Director on Bureau of Meteorology in 1958 and 13 July 1978, Bill threw himself into Director of Meteorology in 1962. His his role as Honorary Archivist for the 16 years as Director were the Bureau of Meteorology and, for the “golden years” of the Australian next 20 years, led the collection and Bureau, with a dramatic expansion of writing of the detailed history of the its operations and services, a Bureau in preparation for the cente- doubling of its staff and major nary of its commencement of enhancement of its scientific stand- operation as a national organization on ing and influence at the national 1 January 1908. level. Much of this was the product of Bill’s personal leadership, espe- At the function for the celebration of cially the establishment of World his life on 22 March 2005, former Meteorological Centre Melbourne, colleagues spoke of his leadership, the introduction of powerful comput- vision and commitment to national and ers into Bureau operations, the international meteorology and his love pioneering application of satellite for the “very special family” that was

112 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 113

Calendar

Date Title Place

16-27 May Regional Training Seminar for National Instructors of RA II and RA V Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

23-27 May Sixth Southern Hemisphere Workshop on Public Weather Services Melbourne, Australia

23-27 May ICAM/MAP 2005—28th International Conference on Alpine Meteorology Zadar, Croatia and Annual Scientific Meeting of th Mesoscale Alpine Programme (co-sponsored by WMO)

25-31 May Fourteenth International TOVS Study Conference (ITSC-XIV) Beijing, China (co-sponsored by WMO)

1-3 June Thirteenth session of the GCOS Steering Committee St. Petersburg, Russian Federation

14-16 June Workshop on Climatic Analysis and Mapping for Agriculture Bologna, Italy

20-24 June Fifth International GEWEX Conference Orange County, CA, USA

20-24 June The Aviation Seminar Exeter, UK (co-sponsored by WMO)

20 June Fifty-fourth session of the WMO Bureau Geneva

20 June Financial Advisory Committee (FINAC)—twenty-fourth session Geneva

21 June-1 July Executive Council—fifty-seventh session Geneva

13-16 July Regional Technical Meeting on CLIPS and Agrometeorological Sao Paulo, Applications for the Mercosur Countries Brazil

25-29 July Third Regional Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting Beijing, China A Hands-on Forecast Training Laboratory

8-19 August CLIPS Focal Point Training Workshop for RA III Lima, Peru

20 Aug.-9 Sept. Thirteenth Brazilian Meteorological Congress Fortaleza (Ceara), Brazil

5-6 September Technical Conference on International Cooperation in Meteorology Heidelberg, and Hydrology in RA VI Germany

5-9 September WWRP International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Toulouse, France Short-Range Forecasting

7-15 September Regional Association VI (Europe)—fourteenth session Heidelberg, Germany

19-23 September International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting San José, Costa Rica (co-sponsored by WMO)

19-28 September Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Halifax (Nova Marine Meteorology—second session Scotia), Canada

26-29 September SPARC Scientific Steering Group—thirteenth session Oxford, United Kingdom

24-28 October CliC Scientific Steering Group—second session Boulder, CO, USA 113 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 114

Members of the World Meteorological Organization

At 31 March 2005

STATES (181)

Afghanistan Democratic Republic of Lesotho Saudi Arabia Albania the Congo Liberia Senegal Algeria Denmark Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Serbia and Montenegro Angola Djibouti Lithuania Seychelles Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Luxembourg Sierra Leone Argentina Dominican Republic Madagascar Singapore Armenia Ecuador Malawi Slovakia Australia Egypt Malaysia Slovenia Austria El Salvador Maldives Solomon Islands Azerbaijan Eritrea Mali Somalia Bahamas Estonia Malta South Africa Bahrain Ethiopia Mauritania Spain Bangladesh Fiji Mauritius Sri Lanka Barbados Finland Mexico Sudan Belarus France Micronesia, Federated Suriname Belgium Gabon States of Swaziland Belize Gambia Monaco Sweden Benin Georgia Mongolia Switzerland Bhutan Germany Morocco Syrian Arab Republic Bolivia Ghana Mozambique Tajikistan Bosnia and Herzegovina Greece Myanmar Thailand Botswana Guatemala Namibia The former Yugoslav Republic Brazil Guinea Nepal of Macedonia Brunei Darussalam Guinea-Bissau Netherlands Togo Bulgaria Guyana New Zealand Tonga Burkina Faso Haiti Nicaragua Trinidad and Tobago Burundi Honduras Niger Tunisia Cambodia Hungary Nigeria Turkey Cameroon Iceland Niue Turkmenistan Canada India Norway Uganda Cape Verde Indonesia Oman Ukraine Central African Republic Iran, Islamic Republic of Pakistan United Arab Emirates Chad Iraq Panama United Kingdom of Great Chile Ireland Papua New Guinea Britain and Northern Ireland China Israel Paraguay United Republic of Tanzania Colombia Italy Peru United States of America Comoros Jamaica Philippines Uruguay Congo Japan Poland Uzbekistan Cook Islands Jordan Portugal Vanuatu Costa Rica Kazakhstan Qatar Venezuela Côte d'Ivoire Kenya Republic of Korea Viet Nam Croatia Kiribati Republic of Moldova Yemen Cuba Kuwait Romania Zambia Cyprus Kyrgyzstan Russian Federation Zimbabwe Czech Republic Lao People's Democratic Rwanda Democratic People's Republic Saint Lucia Republic of Korea Latvia Samoa Lebanon Sao Tome and Principe

TERRITORIES (6)

British Caribbean Territories Hong Kong, China Netherlands Antilles and New Caledonia French Polynesia Macao, China Aruba BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 115 BLTN 54/2 17/06/05 12:42 Page 116 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 117

www.rst.vcs.de RST 0505 get in touch with MTSAT.

Remote Sensing Technology

The VCS MTSAT user station is ready for reception of LRIT and HRIT data being transmitted by the new MTSAT 1R satellite

Based on the well-known 2met!¤ concept, VCS is your reliable partner for the complete range of next generation remote sensing systems and technologies. Beside sophisticated application features, 2met!¤ is now ready to receive LRIT and HRIT data being transmitted by the new geo-stationary MTSAT satellite.

Ask us about your solution by emailing [email protected] or by calling +49 234 9258-112

VCS Aktiengesellschaft · Borgmannstraße 2 · 44894 Bochum · Germany · www.vcs.de BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 118 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 119 BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:52 Page 120 Cover(final)GB+dos 4mm.qxd(8) 17/06/05 12:24 Page a2

Vol. 54 (2) April 2005 feature articles - interviews - news - book reviews - calendar Climate research: achievements and Volume 54 No. 2 No. 54 Volume 2005 April Weather and crops in 2004 challenges

The global climate system in 2004

25th anniversary of the World Climate Research Programme

World Meteorological Organization 7bis, avenue de la Paix Case postale No. 2300