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WMO Bulletin, Volume 54, No. 2: April 2005

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WMO Bulletin, Volume 54, No. 2: April 2005 Cover(final)GB+dos 4mm.qxd(8) 17/06/05 12:24 Page a1 Vol. 54 (2) April 2005 feature articles - interviews - news - book reviews - calendar Climate research: achievements and Volume 54 No. 2 54 No. Volume April 2005 Weather and crops in 2004 challenges The global climate system in 2004 25th anniversary of the World Climate Research Programme World Meteorological Organization 7bis, avenue de la Paix Case postale No. 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland WMO BULLETIN Tel:+ 41 22 730 81 11 Fax: + 41 22 730 81 81 Water and energy cycles Hurricane Ivan’s impact Climate change indices E-mail: [email protected] Stratospheric processes on the Cayman Islands The cryosphere and the Web: http://www.wmo.int ISSN 0042-9767 www.wmo.int and climate Climate change and variability climate system Cover(final)GB+dos 4mm.qxd(8) 17/06/05 12:24 Page a2 The World Meteorological North America, Central America and the Congress Caribbean (Region IV) The World C. Fuller (Belize) is the supreme body of the Organization. It South-West Pacific (Region V) brings together delegates of all Members Woon Shih Lai (Singapore) CD-ROM Meteorological once every four years to determine general Europe (Region VI) policies for the fulfilment of the purposes D.K. Keuerleber-Burk (Switzerland) (acting) Organization of the Organization. The CD-Rom contains (in pdf format in both (WMO) The Executive Council Elected members of the Executive high and low resolution): Council is composed of 37 directors of National Weather • Climate • Water • WMO Bulletin 54 (2) – April 2005 Meteorological or Hydrometeorological M.L. Bah (Guinea) Services serving in an individual capacity; it J.-P. Beysson (France) • MeteoWorld – April 2005 meets at least once a year to supervise the Q.-uz-Z. Chaudhry (Pakistan) • Weather, climate, water and programmes approved by Congress. Chow Kok Kee (Malaysia) sustainable development (WMO-No. 974) M.D. Everell (Canada) (Brochure for World Meteorological Day 2005) U. Gärtner (Germany) The six regional associations B. Kassahun (Ethiopia) • Saving paradise, ensuring sustainable J.J. Kelly (United States of America) development (WMO-No. 973) are each composed of Members whose R.D.J. Lengoasa (South Africa) task it is to coordinate meteorological, G.B. Love (Australia) (acting) hydrological and related activities within J. Lumsden (New Zealand) The CD-Rom also contains (in pdf format in low resolution) : their respective Regions. F.P. Mote (Ghana) WMO Headquarters building A.D. Moura (Brazil) (acting) • World Climate Research Programme: 25 years of J.R. Mukabana (Kenya) science serving society (Brochure) The eight technical commissions K. Nagasaka (Japan) (acting) • Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment—Phase I WMO is a specialized agency of the I. Obrusnik (Czech Republic) (acting) (Brochure) United Nations. are composed of experts designated by H.H. Oliva (Chile) Its purposes are: Members and are responsible for studying Qin Dahe (China) • Nine WCRP flyers meteorological and hydrological operational J.K. Rabadi (Jordan) (acting) To facilitate worldwide cooperation in the systems, applications and research. D. Rogers (United Kingdom) (acting) establishment of networks of stations B.T. Sekoli (Lesotho) for the making of meteorological obser- R. Sorani (Italy) vations as well as hydrological and other Executive Council S.K. Srivastav (India) geophysical observations related to meteorology, and to promote the estab- President (four seats vacant) lishment and maintenance of centres A.I. Bedritsky (Russian Federation) charged with the provision of meteoro- logical and related services; First Vice-President To promote the establishment and main- A.M. Noorian (Islamic Republic of Iran) tenance of systems for the rapid Presidents of technical exchange of meteorological and related Second Vice-President commissions information; T.W. Sutherland (British Caribbean To promote standardization of meteoro- Territories) Aeronautical Meteorology logical and related observations and to N.D. Gordon ensure the uniform publication of obser- Third Vice-President Agricultural Meteorology vations and statistics; M.A. Rabiolo (Argentina) R.P. Motha To further the application of meteorology Atmospheric Sciences to aviation, shipping, water problems, A. Eliassen agriculture and other human activities; Ex officio members of the Basic Systems To promote activities in operational Executive Council (presidents of A.I. Gusev hydrology and to further close coopera- regional associations) Climatology tion between Meteorological and Y. Boodhoo Hydrological Services; Africa (Region I) Hydrology To encourage research and training in M.S. Mhita (United Republic of Tanzania) B. Stewart meteorology and, as appropriate, in Asia (Region II) Instruments and Methods of Observation related fields, and to assist in A.M.H. Isa (Bahrain) R.P. Canterford (acting) coordinating the international aspects of South America (Region III) Oceanography and Marine Meteorology such research and training. R. Michelini (Uruguay) (acting) J. Guddal and S. Narayanan BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:27 Page 49 Contents The official journal In this issue . 50 of the World Climate change and variability—what can we predict? . 51 Water and energy cycles: investigating the links . 58 Meteorological From ozone hole to chemical climate prediction . 65 Organization Frozen assets: the cryosphere’s role in the climate system . 75 Climate change indices . 83 Vol. 54 No. 2 The global climate system in 2004 . 87 April 2005 Weather and global crop production in 2004 . 92 Hurricane Ivan’s impact on the Cayman Islands . 97 Secretary-General Michel JARRAUD Deputy Secretary-General Hong YAN Assistant Secretary-General Vacant Visits of the Secretary-General . 101 Subscription rates Book reviews . 105 Surface mail Air mail 1 year CHF 60 CHF 85 New books received . 107 2 years CHF 110 CHF 150 3 years CHF 145 CHF 195 Recently issued . 108 Published quarterly (January, April, July, October) in English, French, Russian and Staff news . 109 Spanish editions. Obituaries . 111 Opinions expressed in signed articles or in Calendar . 112 advertisements appearing in the WMO Bulletin are the author's or advertiser's opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products in articles or advertisements does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. Extracts from unsigned (or initialled) articles in the journal may be reproduced provided the customary acknowl- edgement is made. Requests to publish signed articles (in part or in whole) should be addressed to the Editor. Editor: Hong Yan Associate Editor: Judith C.C. Torres E-mail: [email protected] Cover photo: Nick Cox, British Antarctic Survey Tel.: (+41) 22 730.84.78 Fax: (+41) 22 730.80.24 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tel:+ 41 22 730 81 11 7bis, avenue de la Paix Fax: + 41 22 730 81 81 Case postale No. 2300 E-mail: [email protected] CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Web: http://www.wmo.int BLTN 54/2 13/06/05 17:27 Page 50 been implemented mainly through a collaboration resulted in an interna- small number of “core projects” and tional team of SPARC scientists related activities. Some have already receiving WMO’s Nobert Gerbier In this issue been successfully concluded and left MUMM International Award in 2003. significant scientific, technical and practical legacies, in particular: the “Frozen assets: the cryosphere’s role in Tropical Ocean and Global the climate system” traces WCRP’s Atmosphere project (TOGA, 1985- initiatives in promoting cryospheric 1994); the World Ocean Circulation research from the achievements of the Experiment (WOCE, 1982-2002); and regionally focused ACSYS to the devel- the Arctic Climate System Study opment and introduction of WCRP’s (ACSYS, 1994-2003). Today, the newest core project, Climate and WCRP consists of four major core Cryosphere (CliC), which recognizes the projects and various cross-cutting and full global extent of the cryosphere’s co-sponsored activities. This issue presence and influence. WCRP’s main contains articles on each of these core contributions to the International Polar projects. Year 2007-2008 will be channelled through CliC. “Climate change and variability— what can we predict?” introduces These projects have benefited from and illustrates the wide and challeng- WMO’s major Programmes and the ing remit of the Climate Variability and data provided by the observing Predictability (CLIVAR) project, build- networks operated by the National WMO celebrates 25 years of climate research ing on the legacies of its Meteorological and Hydrological for the benefit of society and looks forward predecessors, TOGA and WOCE. Services. to addressing the challenges of the future. A CLIVAR research is aimed at develop- main focus of activities is the cryosphere. ing more useful predictions of climate Another feature article is one which variability and change through the use describes the importance of regional of improved climate models and workshops to produce indices of This issue of the Bulletin celebrates observations. climate change for certain countries 25 years of climate research by WMO and regions where data have hitherto and the World Climate Research The Global Energy and Water Cycle been lacking. They are also a good Programme (WCRP), sponsored by Experiment (GEWEX) carries out beginning for regional cooperation. WMO, the International Council for investigations of the atmosphere, its Science and the Intergovernmental global
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