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Climate: Observations, Projections and Impacts: China Climate: Observations, projections and impacts: China Met Office Simon N. Gosling, University of Nottingham Robert Dunn, Met Office Fiona Carrol, Met Office Nikos Christidis, Met Office John Fullwood, Met Office Diogo de Gusmao, Met Office Nicola Golding, Met Office Lizzie Good, Met Office Trish Hall, Met Office Lizzie Kendon, Met Office John Kennedy, Met Office Kirsty Lewis, Met Office Rachel McCarthy, Met Office Carol McSweeney, Met Office Colin Morice, Met Office David Parker, Met Office Matthew Perry, Met Office Peter Stott, Met Office Kate Willett, Met Office Myles Allen, University of Oxford Nigel Arnell, Walker Institute, University of Reading Dan Bernie, Met Office Richard Betts, Met Office Niel Bowerman, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Bastiaan Brak, University of Leeds John Caesar, Met Office Andy Challinor, University of Leeds Rutger Dankers, Met Office Fiona Hewer, Fiona's Red Kite Chris Huntingford, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Alan Jenkins, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Nick Klingaman, Walker Institute, University of Reading Kirsty Lewis, Met Office Ben Lloyd-Hughes, Walker Institute, University of Reading Jason Lowe, Met Office Rachel McCarthy, Met Office James Miller, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Robert Nicholls, University of Southampton Maria Noguer, Walker Institute, University of Reading Friedreike Otto, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Paul van der Linden, Met Office Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia The country reports were written by a range of climate researchers, chosen for their subject expertise, who were drawn from institutes across the UK. Authors from the Met Office and the University of Nottingham collated the contributions in to a coherent narrative which was then reviewed. The authors and contributors of the reports are as above. Developed at the request of: Climate: Observations, projections and impacts Research conducted by: China We have reached a critical year in our response to There is already strong scientific evidence that the climate change. The decisions that we made in climate has changed and will continue to change Cancún put the UNFCCC process back on track, saw in future in response to human activities. Across the us agree to limit temperature rise to 2 °C and set us in world, this is already being felt as changes to the the right direction for reaching a climate change deal local weather that people experience every day. to achieve this. However, we still have considerable work to do and I believe that key economies and Our ability to provide useful information to help major emitters have a leadership role in ensuring everyone understand how their environment has a successful outcome in Durban and beyond. changed, and plan for future, is improving all the time. But there is still a long way to go. These To help us articulate a meaningful response to climate reports – led by the Met Office Hadley Centre in change, I believe that it is important to have a robust collaboration with many institutes and scientists scientific assessment of the likely impacts on individual around the world – aim to provide useful, up to date countries across the globe. This report demonstrates and impartial information, based on the best climate that the risks of a changing climate are wide-ranging science now available. This new scientific material and that no country will be left untouched by climate will also contribute to the next assessment from the change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I thank the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre for their However, we must also remember that while we hard work in putting together such a comprehensive can provide a lot of useful information, a great piece of work. I also thank the scientists and officials many uncertainties remain. That’s why I have put in from the countries included in this project for their place a long-term strategy at the Met Office to work interest and valuable advice in putting it together. ever more closely with scientists across the world. I hope this report will inform this key debate on one Together, we’ll look for ways to combine more and of the greatest threats to humanity. better observations of the real world with improved computer models of the weather and climate; which, The Rt Hon. Chris Huhne MP, Secretary of State for over time, will lead to even more detailed and Energy and Climate Change confident advice being issued. Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist Introduction Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is essential for informing both adaptation strategies and actions to avoid dangerous levels of climate change. A range of valuable national studies have been carried out and published, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has collated and reported impacts at the global and regional scales. But assessing the amount of information about past climate change and its future impacts has been available at Each report contains: data on extreme events. Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC. Dangerous Climate Change programme (AVOID) and supporting literature. through international cooperation. Summary Climate observations Warming has been widespread over China over the period 1960 to 2010 with greater warming in winter then summer. There has been a strong decrease in the frequency of cool nights since 1960 and an increase in the frequency of warm nights. There has been a general increase in winter temperatures averaged over the country as a result of human influence on climate, making the occurrence of mild winter temperatures more frequent and cold winter temperatures less frequent. Recent studies have found some evidence to suggest that annual total precipitation over China is increasing, as are days with heavy precipitation. Climate change projections For the A1B emissions scenario projected changes in temperature are higher over northern and western parts of the country, with changes of up to around 4.5°C. In the southeast, projected changes are typically around 3°C. There is good agreement between the models from the CMIP3 ensemble over most of China. Precipitation is projected to increase over almost the entire country. Increases of up to 20% are projected with high ensemble agreement between the CMIP3 models across the northeast of China. Lower increases of between zero and 10% are projected for the southeast of the country, but with less agreement amongst CMIP3 models. 1 Climate change impacts projections Crop yields Although the picture is mixed, global- and regional-scale studies considered here generally project decreases in the yield of China’s major crops: rice, wheat, and most markedly of maize, as a consequence of climate change. Some global-scale studies suggest that the magnitude of, and balance between, detrimental ozone effects and CO2 fertilisation may determine whether crop yield losses or gains are realised under climate change. Food security China currently has very low levels of undernourishment. Global-scale studies of food security vary in their conclusions for China, however they generally project that the country will become less food secure with climate change. National-scale studies confirm the uncertainty in food security estimates with some suggesting that China could experience large food shortages, while others suggest it may not face pressures on food security with climate change. Water stress and drought Global-scale studies included here agree that south-eastern China currently suffers from a moderate to high level of water stress. Global- and regional-scale studies included here show no consensus as to the sign of change in drought or water stress in China with climate change. However some global- and national-scale studies included here project that water stress could increase in China for global-mean warming scenarios of around 2°C, but may decrease under higher warming or higher emission scenarios, due to a projected increase in precipitation and runoff. Recent simulations by the AVOID programme project a median increase of 6% of China’s population to be exposed to water stress increases, and 20% to water stress decreases under the A1B emissions scenario by 2100. Under a mitigation scenario where global temperature increases are limited to 2°C these values are 2% and 9% respectively. 2 Pluvial flooding and rainfall The IPCC AR4 noted the potential for increased precipitation over East Asia, and also an increase in extreme precipitation in parts of China. Results from recent studies suggest that changes in precipitation extremes tend to be larger under higher emissions scenarios. Fluvial flooding Observations show that heavy precipitation events have increased over recent decades in parts of China, and flooding events have become more frequent in a number of river basins. Climate change impact studies suggest that this trend could continue, although uncertainties are large, resulting in a wide spread in responses among different climate models. Simulations by the AVOID programme show a general tendency towards higher flood risk in China, particularly later in the century and under the A1B scenario. Tropical cyclones There remains large uncertainty in the current understanding of how tropical cyclones might be affected by climate change. There is relatively less uncertainty regarding the intensity of cyclones in the western Pacific basin, compared to their frequency. A number of global- and regional-scale studies included here project that cyclone intensity could increase considerably in the future in this basin. These increases in intensity could be greatest for the most severe cyclones, which could lead to large increases in cyclone damages in China. China is particularly vulnerable to cyclone damages due to its high coastal population density and the valuable economic assets located in coastal regions. Coastal regions Recent global-scale assessments of the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on coasts, which include national estimates for China, suggest that China is one of the countries across the globe that could experience the most severe impacts.
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