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VYTAUTO DIDŽIOJO UNIVERSITETAS Pijus Krūminas VYTAUTO DIDŽIOJO UNIVERSITETAS POLITIKOS MOKSLŲ IR DIPLOMATIJOS FAKULTETAS POLITOLOGIJOS KATEDRA Pijus Krūminas INDUSTRIJOS KONCENTRACIJA IR DIKTATORIŲ ŽLUGIMAS PIETŲ BEI VIDURIO IR RYTŲ EUROPOJE, 1950-2000 M. Magistro baigiamasis darbas Šiuolaikinės Europos politikos studijų programa, valstybinis kodas 621L20005 Politikos mokslų studijų kryptis Vadovas dr. Vincentas Vobolevičius _______________ _____________ (Moksl. Laipsnis, vardas, pavardė) (Parašas) (Data) Apginta___________________ _____________ __________ (Fakulteto/studijų instituto dekanas/direktorius) (Parašas) (Data) Kaunas, 2013 VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Pijus Krūminas INDUSTRIAL CONCENTRATION AND THE FALL OF DICTATORS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE, 1950-2000 Final master’s thesis Contemporary European Politics study programme, state code 621L20005 Political science study field Supervisor dr. Vincentas Vobolevičius _______________ _____________ (Research degree, name, surname) (Signature) (Date) Defended ___________________ _____________ __________ (PMDF dean) (Signature) (Date) Kaunas, 2013 Table of Contents SANTRAUKA...................................................................................................................1 ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................7 List of tables and diagrams.................................................................................................8 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................9 1.1 Defining Democracy and Democratization.............................................................13 1.2 Regime Change and Economic Development.........................................................15 1.3 Modeling Causality................................................................................................18 2. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK.......................................................................28 2.1 Survival Analysis...................................................................................................28 2.2 Process-Tracing Method ........................................................................................30 2.3 Case Selection .......................................................................................................33 3. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEMOCRATIZATION: SPAIN, SERBIA AND BELARUS.......................................................................................................................41 3.1 Democratization in Spain.......................................................................................41 3.1.1 Historical Background....................................................................................41 3.1.2 Spanish Economy under Dictatorship 1939-1977 ...........................................42 3.1.3 The Selectorate and Economic Growth...........................................................45 3.2 Democratization in Serbia......................................................................................52 3.2.1 Historical Background....................................................................................52 3.2.2 Serbian Economy after the War: 1992-2000....................................................53 3.2.3 Economics and the Selectorate .......................................................................55 3.3 Authoritarianism in Belarus ...................................................................................61 3.3.1 Historical Background....................................................................................61 3.3.2 Economic Development under Lukashenko....................................................62 3.3.3 Economic Development and the Selectorate...................................................64 3.4 Overview of the Results of the Qualitative Analysis...............................................68 4. ECONOMIC GROWTH, SELECTORATE AND DEMOCRATIZATION: A SURVIVAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................71 4.1 Basic Survival Data ...............................................................................................71 4.2 Proportional Hazard Rate and Economic Time-Dependent Covariates ...................73 4.3 Proportional Hazard Rate and Non-Economic Covariates ......................................80 CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................................83 LIST OF LITERATURE AND SOURCES.......................................................................86 Annexes...........................................................................................................................93 Krūminas, P. Industrijos koncentracija ir diktatorių žlugimas Pietų bei Vidurio ir Rytų Europoje, 1950-2000 m.: Politikos mokslų magistro baigiamasis darbas / vadovas dr. V. Vobolevičius; Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas, Politikos mokslų ir diplomatijos fakultetas, Politologijos katedra. Kaunas, 2013. p. 99. SANTRAUKA Režimų dinamikos problema yra vienas aktualiausių šiandieninės politikos klausimų, tai puikiai iliustruoja ir Artimuosiuose Rytuose bei Šiaurės Afrikoje vykstantys procesai. Nors politinės santvarkos transformacijos ir buvo tyrinėtos, prie bendros nuomonės dėl jų priežasčių ir veiksnių, lemiančių jų sėkmingumą, nėra prieita. Egzistuoja sąsaja tarp ekonominio šalies išsivystymo ir sėkmingos demokratizacijos tikimybės. Reikia pasakyti, kad būta bandymų paaiškinti, kokiais mechanizmais ekonominiai veiksniai gali lemti politinių režimų kaitą, tačiau iki galo, kokie keliai galėtų būti, nėra išsiaiškinta. Režimų kaitos priežasčių analizė yra aktuali tiek dėl mokslinės, tiek dėl praktinės naudos: per tyrimus padarytos išvados leidžia praplėsti ir atnaujinti mokslinius duomenis bei suteikia naujų teorinių žinių apie politinių institucijų veikimą bei ekonominių ir politinių sistemų sąsajas; įgytos mokslinės žinios leidžia politikos formuotojams realiau vertinti politinius procesus, o tai ypač svarbu vykstant režimų transformacijoms iš autoritarinių į demokratinius. Atsižvelgus į patikrintas teorijas, galima atitinkamai koreguoti vykdomą politiką, tiksliau prognozuoti būsimus įvykius, nustatyti, kokių pokyčių valstybėje reikia, kad diktatūrinės vyriausybės nuvertimas užtikrintų demokratijos įvedimą. Šiame magistro baigiamajame darbe yra nagrinėjamas būtent šis ekonomikos ir režimų dinamikos klausimo aspektas. Kaip ekonominiai faktoriai turi veikti politinę valstybės sistemą, kad autoritarinės institucijos būtų pakeistos į demokratines? Taigi šio darbo tikslas yra pateikti modelį, galintį paaiškinti priežastinius ryšius, jungiančius ekonominį augimą su demokratizacija, ir jį patikrinti empiriškai. Iškeliami šie uždaviniai: išanalizuoti mokslinę literatūrą, nagrinėjančią ekonomikos ir demokratizacijos santykį bei nustatyti, kuri prieiga yra geriausiai pagrįsta tiek teoriškai, tiek empiriškai; sukonstruoti teorinį modelį, kuris atskleistų priežastinius ryšius, jungiančius ekonominius kintamuosius ir režimų dinamiką; remiantis sukurtu modeliu pateikti empiriškai patikrinamą hipotezę, kuri paaiškintų, kaip ekonominis augimas skatina demokratizaciją; patikrinti pasiūlytą hipotezę, remiantis kokybiniu procesų sekimo metodu, pritaikant jį mažiausiai tarpusavyje panašioms, į tyrimo imtį patekusioms, valstybėms tirti; 1 patikrinti pasiūlytą hipotezę, remiantis kiekybiniu statistiniu išlikimo analizės metodu, pritaikant jį visai tyrimo imčiai, į kurią patenka visos po 1950-ųjų įvykusios demokratinės transformacijos bei išanalizuoti ar su modeliu susiję kintamieji diktatorių žlugimą paaiškina geriau nei su ekonomika nesusiję faktoriai. Įvykdžius šiuos uždavinius, bus pasiektas ir pagrindinis tyrimo tikslas. Darbas suskirstytas į keturias dalis. Pirmojoje aptariamos pagrindinės vartojamos sąvokos bei pristatomos svarbiausios teorijos, analizuojančios ekonomikos ir demokratijos santykius. Taip pat apžvelgiami ir bandymai paaiškinti, koks priežastinis mechanizmas jungia ekonomikos augimą ir režimų kaitą. Kaip alternatyva pasiūlomas atskiras modelis, pagrįstas selektorato teorija, bei suformuluojama tyrimo hipotezė. Antrojoje darbo dalyje pristatomos pasirinktos metodinės prieigos: kiekybinė statistinė išlikimo analizė ir kokybinis procesų sekimo metodas. Taip pat aprašoma tyrimo imtis ir pateikiamos tokio pasirinkimo priežastys. Trečioji dalis skirta hipotezei testuoti, remiantis kiekybiniu procesų sekimo metodu, kuris taikomas Ispanijos, Serbijos bei Baltarusijos, kaip mažiausiai tarpusavyje panašių valstybių, atvejams tirti. Ketvirtojoje darbo dalyje hipotezei tikrinti naudojama statistinė išlikimo analizė, kuria analizuojama visa tyrimo imtis. Galiausiai pateikiamos apibendrinamosios išvados. Prieš smulkiau pristatant šį magistro baigiamąjį darbą yra būtina apsibrėžti demokratijos ir demokratizacijos sąvokas, t.y. paaiškinti, kaip jos suprantamos šiame darbe. Remiantis Adamo Przeworskio išsamiai aptarta ir pagrįsta minimalistine demokratijos samprata, galima teigti, kad valstybė laikoma demokratiška, jei ji atitinka du kriterijus: valstybė turi užtikrinti, kad rinkimai būtų laisvi ir leisti valdžiai, jiems įvykus, pasikeisti be kliūčių. Nors dėl tokio koncentruotumo į režimo apibrėžtį per rinkimus, minimalistinė demokratijos samprata gali būti netinkama kai kuriems tyrimams, tačiau, kai kalbama apie
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