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Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Website of the Expert Community of Belarus «Nashe Mnenie» (Our Opinion) 1 BELARUSIAN INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES WEBSITE OF THE EXPERT COMMUNITY OF BELARUS «NASHE MNENIE» (OUR OPINION) BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2011 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in 2011 Minsk, 2012 2 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2011 3 CONTENTS EDITORIAL FOREWORD 7 Compiled and edited by: STATE AUTHORITY Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova Dzmitry Brukhavetski Prepress by Stefani Kalinowskaya The Administration of the President of the Republic of Belarus: The search for a new English version translated by Mark Bence, Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey strategy of the countrys development 11 Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Taciana Tulus-Aleksandrovic English version edited by Mark Bence, Max Nuijens, Taciana Tulus- Alexey Medvetsky Aleksandrovic Security Agencies: Conservative reform 17 Scientific reviewers and consultants: Miroslav Kollar (Institute for Public Affairs, Program Director of the Ina Ramasheuskaya Slovak annual Global Report); Alexei Pikulik (Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies BISS, Lithuania); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian Economic The Anti-Crisis Government, Research and Outreach Center BEROC); Andrey Vardomatsky or On the Art of Manoeuvring 23 (NOVAK laboratory); Petr Martsev (BISS Board member); Ales Ancipienka (Belarusian Collegium); Vladimir Dounaev (Agency of Policy Expertise APEx); Viktor Chernov (independent expert) Andrei Valodzkin The Belarusian Armed Forces: The yearbook is published with support of The German Marshall Fund of the United States Internal development and international cooperation 31 Andrey Kazakevich Parliament: External impacts and rumored reforms 40 Zmicier Kuchlej The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board. Local Authorities: Political loyalty, economic stagnation 47 FOREIGN POLICY Anatoly Pankovsky, Valeria Kostyugova ISSN 18224091 © Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, website of the Russia and the Big Integration expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (nmnby.eu) (as opposed to the Small one) 57 4 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2011 5 Dzianis Melyantsou Arkadz Nesciarenka In the Shadow of December 19: Media as an Instrument of Civil Cold War 136 Belarus-EU relations 63 Marina Sokolova, Mikhail Doroshevich Andrey Fyodorov The WWW as a Habitat 146 Belarus United States: The freezing point 71 Sviatlana Matskevich Kamil Klysinski Education: Between export and sclerotization 158 Poland: Cold war in politics and a trade boom 77 Andrei Laurukhin Gennady Maksak State Innovation in Science: Belarus Ukraine: Neighborly stand-off 82 New five-year plan, some old problems 166 Vladimir Dounaev Natallia Vasilevich Crisis of Regional Integration Projects Churches after the Elections and Before the Choice 174 in the East of Europe 90 Andrej Vitushka Siarhei Bohdan Health Care: Between poverty and hi-tech 181 Belarus and Developing Countries: potassium, oil and tractors 100 Maksim Zhbankov Cultural Transformation: SOCIETY New modes of stagnation 191 Dzmitry Brukhavetski Barys Tasman Pro-Government NGOs: Much ado about nothing 111 Sports: War on huts, money for palaces 200 Irina Dounaeva Sergey Nikolyuk The Third Sector: Consolidating under pressure 117 Public Opinion: Historic collapse 208 Yury Chavusau ECONOMY Political Parties: From participation in presidential elections to boycotting Dzmitry Kruk parliamentary ones 128 Macroeconomic Situation: Uncontrollable correction 215 6 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2011 7 Alexandr Mukha EDITORIAL FOREWORD Currency Market and the Banking System: Back to 1998 224 The Belarusian Yearbook is a long-term joint project of the expert community of Belarus. This publication is an annually prepared Kiryl Haiduk integral analysis of the state of affairs in essential spheres of state Labor Market and Social Policy: and society. The first issue appeared in 2003, since 2008 it is com- piled under the aegis of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Stud- Reasonable compensation for loss ies and Nashe Mnenie web-site. of income following the currency crisis 231 In the issue on 2010 we stated that the forerun to the presiden- tial campaign moulded all spheres of social and political life and its Alyona Rybkina finale the brutal dispersion of the rally in the Independence Energy Sector: On the way to selling all assets 239 Square told on all aspects of life (including the politically neu- tral sports, pop-culture, etc). The year 2011 followed the inertia of the post-electoral frame. The two terms to describe it succinctly Maria Akulova are isolation and crisis. Below are the key trends of the year Foreign Investments: 2011: Beltransgaz and something else 246 • Narrowing of the state, a tendency that took a definite shape in 2010. Its essence: the decision-making authority is concen- Konstantin Skuratovich trating in hands of a gradually narrowing group of people who bear no responsibility for implementing their decisions; Agribusiness: The notorious debtor 254 • Institutional transformation: the increasing crisis of state power on the level of the first government, the National Bank and the Presidential Administration is the background of the emerg- APPENDIX. BISS Trends reviews 261 ing second government the enforcement bodies; • The general crisis of the public policy: the ruling class is inca- pable of proposing a reformation program; AUTHORS 329 • The crisis of confidence in its broadest sense; • The authorities are violently arresting any form of protest and broader of political activism; • The political isolation of Belarus is increasing along the grow- ing dependence on its sole economic and political creditor Russia; • The financial crisis, a kind of painful cure for the accumulated macroeconomic disproportion, was terminated (visibly) by means of automatic corrections; • An active borrower, Belarus rounded off the year with vague prospects for both repaying credits and procuring new ones. Contributing to this Yearbook were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing various think tanks, in- cluding the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), the 8 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2011 9 Institute for Political Studies Palitycnaja Sfiera (Political Sphere), the Research Center of the Institute for Privatization and Manage- ment, the Agency of Humanitarian Technologies Centre for So- cial Innovation, NOVAK Axiometrical Research Laboratory, the In- dependent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS), the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), the Centre for Eastern Studies (Warsaw, Poland), the Polesski Fund of International and Regional Studies (Chernihiv, Ukraine), eBelarus Research Center. As a joint effort, the Yearbook is designed to promote public discussions about current transformations in Belarus and develop- ment options for the country, and facilitate the work of state func- tionaries, business managers, members of the diplomatic corps, jour- nalists, politicians and community leaders. Valeria Kostyugova, STATE AUTHORITY Anatoly Pankovsky 10 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2011 11 THE ADMINISTRATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS: THE SEARCH FOR A NEW STRATEGY OF THE COUNTRY’S DEVELOPMENT Dzmitry Brukhavetski Summary During the year 2011 the main content of the activities of the Administration of the President was the search for a new strategy of the republic’s development in the context of increasing political pressure from the side of Russia and the crisis of the Belarusian socially oriented model. The main instrument for short# term situation stabilization became the strengthening of the “manual” regulating the economic and political processes in the country. Understanding the impossibility of the further existence of the “socially oriented” economy with lack of financial resources the Administration of the President prepared the ground for undertaking a number of unpopular measures by the government. For this purpose a “conflict” between the “market economy adherents” in the government and “conservatives” in the AP was initiated. The desirable result of this “conflict” would be the “shock therapy” in economy (“the victory of the market economy adherents”) and following significant resignations in the government. Efficient maneuvering by an experienced public administrator Mr. M.V. Miasnikovich prevented that such a scenario would become a reality last year. At the same time, the AP significantly increased its control over public officials, “cleaned up” the political field in the country, and initiated the discussions about the possible reform of the political system in Belarus. Trends: • The AP continues to pressurize the government in order to impel it to unpopular social and economic measures; • The policy of crackdown on public officials and civil society is being continued; • The Administration of the President will initiate very limited and mostly formal changes broadly presented as the “reforms” of the Belarusian political system. Changes in personnel The Administration of the Republic of Belarus is a public agency which supports the activities of the President of the Republic of Belarus in the sphere of the public administration personnel policy, the ideology of the Belarusian state, and law, as well as in the 12 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2011 State authority 13 sphere of preparing, implementing and control the implementa- spite of his status as a civil servant, he is the head of the pro- tions of the decisions made by the President of the Republic of presidential non-governmental association
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