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The Belarusian Paradox: a Country of Today Versus a President of the Past

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The Belarusian Paradox: a Country of Today Versus a President of the Past JUNE 2019 265 THE BELARUSIAN PARADOX A COUNTRY OF TODAY VERSUS A PRESIDENT OF THE PAST Arkady Moshes Ryhor Nizhnikau JUNE 2019 265 THE BELARUSIAN PARADOX A COUNTRY OF TODAY VERSUS A PRESIDENT OF THE PAST • Belarus is undergoing important societal changes – public attitudes are evolving, the private sector is expanding, and the national culture is experiencing a certain revival – but the country’s old command and repressive model of governance shows no signs of change. • This widening disjuncture is a race against time. At some point in the future, the societal transformations will require a significant ideational and structural reform in the system of governance. The longer the reform is postponed, the more costly it will be for the country. • The end of Alexander Lukashenko’s personalist rule, whenever that happens, is likely to put a succession problem and, possibly, even a question about the country’s political independence on the agenda. • A principal aim of the Western policy towards Belarus should be pushing the country’s regime in the direction of market reforms, political liberalization, independent identity- building and all other means that strengthen the country’s resilience. ARKADY MOSHES RYHOR NIZHNIKAU Programme Director, Senior Research Fellow, The EU's Eastern Neighbourhood Finnish Institute of and Russia research programme International Affairs ISBN 978-951-769-609-8 ISSN 1795-8059 Language editing: Lynn Nikkanen. Cover photo: Aleksandr Kuznetsov/Flickr, used and modified under the Creative Commons license The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an independent research institute that produces high-level research to support political decisionmaking and public debate both nationally and internationally. All manuscripts are reviewed by at least two other experts in the field to ensure the high quality of the publications. In addition, publications undergo professional language checking and editing. The responsibility for the views expressed ultimately rests with the authors. THE BELARUSIAN PARADOX: A COUNTRY OF TODAY VERSUS A PRESIDENT OF THE PAST INTRODUCTION driven by the private sector and supported by shifts in attitudes and preferences within society. On 20 July 2019, Alexander Lukashenko is going to cele- brate his 25th anniversary as the president of Belarus. By the beginning of the 2000s, he had concentrated all the Away from state economy power in the country in his hands. By that time, he had rendered political institutions meaningless, consolidat- After the economic crisis of 2009 and recession of ed the bureaucratic vertical, repressed civil society and 2012–16, the role of the state in the national econo- removed his main opponents, several of whom disap- my started to decrease. In 2018, the IMF recorded that peared under suspicious circumstances and are believed since 2014 the state’s share in the economy had fallen to be dead. As of this moment, he is the only president from 70% to 50% of GDP. in the country’s history and the longest-serving head The economic niches that the state abandoned are of state within the boundaries of geographical Europe.1 being filled by the private sector. Significant injections During Lukashenko’s rule, Belarus has traditionally of private capital were recorded in the fast-growing been depicted as a “throwback to the Soviet Union”, tourism, food, and IT sectors. Even though the public a country “where time stood still”. This description, sector remains the largest employer in the country, ac- however, is no longer valid. Since the 2000s, Belaru- cording to economist Ekaterina Bornukova, employ- sian society has been evolving fast, and in many re- ment in the private sector has been growing rapidly in spects now resembles its Eastern European neighbours recent years and is expected to reach 50% of the total more than external observers are usually inclined to labour force in the near future.2 acknowledge. Social and economic mobility is increasing apace. Yet, unlike Belarusian society, the Belarusian presi- According to various estimates, several hundred thou- dent and his personalist system of governance are stuck sand people work abroad. Russia’s officials estimate in the past. Lukashenko has obvious difficulty realizing that 650,000 Belarusian citizens resided in Russia in that the country in which he came to power a quarter of 2018. The number of Belarusians working in Poland a century ago, and the country in which he rules today, increased 14-fold (!) in 2014–2017.3 are not one and the same. As time passes, the contrast These changes go hand in hand with the growth between the backward-looking presidency and the in pro-market views. In 2006, a sociological study modernizing society only grows stronger and, sooner recorded that 60% of those polled were supporters RYHOR NIZHNIKAU or later, the conflict is bound to become apparent. of the state-controlled economy, and only 34% pre- Senior Research Fellow, This Briefing Paper identifies this dilemma and puts ferred the market economy. In 2008, the gap widened Finnish Institute of it into focus. It argues that ongoing socio-cultural even further as the latter group shrank to 25%. Yet ten International Affairs changes require comprehensive economic and institu- years later the share of those choosing the state-con- tional reforms as well as further investment in human trolled economy dropped to just 25% while, converse- capital, which the incumbent president and his bureau- ly, that of market economy supporters country-wide cratic machinery cannot offer. The longer the reforms increased to 45%. Support for the market economy are postponed, the more costly for the country they will among young people and in less developed regions in- be both economically and politically. creased even more drastically. In the Mogilev region, for instance, the number of market supporters grew fourfold to reach 83% in the last ten years.4 BELARUS’S NEW FACE There is significant evidence that Belarus is gradually modernizing. Its bottom-up transformations are being 2 See http://www.beroc.by/media/tantsy-na-porohovoy-bochke-chto-bu- det-s-belaruskoy-ekonomikoy-v-2019-godu/. 1 That is, west of the Urals. Among the OSCE member states, Lukashenko is second 3 See https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-46211984. to Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon. 4 See http://kef.by/upload/medialibrary/1a7/201809_urban_all.pdf. JUNE 2019 3 Towards a modern and more open society Riga LATVIA A rapid rise in living standards during the 2000s RUSSIA sparked modernization processes in society. An ex- pansion of travel opportunities, the internet and ed- LITHUANIA Vitebsk ucation was followed by an increase in social media RUSSIA Vilnius Orsha district literacy in society and grassroots participation. Education within the country and abroad became Minsk Mogilev more affordable. In the 2000s, universities consider- Grodno ably enlarged the offer of self-funded students’ slots BELARUS (i.e. those where tuition is not covered by the state). POLAND As a result, today one-fifth of the country’s popula- Gomel tion has a university degree, compared to 14% in 1999. Brest The ratio of students per capita, 33 per 1000 people, is among the highest in Europe. According to UNESCO, the number of students receiving education abroad 0 100 200 km UKRAINE also increased from 7,000 in 1999 to 41,000 in 2012. In Kiev 2017 approximately 26,000 studied abroad, including Map: Kauko Kyöstiö 4,500 in Poland. The Vilnius-based European Humani- tarian University has almost 2,300 graduates from Be- larus.5 In 2018, the Global Innovation Index estimated Furthermore, Belarusians possess sufficient knowl- the human capital potential of society rather highly, edge, skills and energy to participate in public life. The ranking Belarus 34th out of 126 countries. PACT study records that the level of civic literacy8 in Belarusians also travel abroad in large numbers. In Belarus is estimated to be as high as in Ukraine, and the 2010s, namely even before visa-free travel with that the Belarusian people are more eager to apply their the EU was granted to citizens of Ukraine, Georgia and knowledge. Social activism, volunteering and crowd- Moldova, Belarus was a leader according to the number funding have skyrocketed in the country since 2011. In of issued Schengen visas per capita. From 2008, when 2015–2017, two crowdfunding platforms, Talaka and 300,000 visas were issued, the number increased to a Ulej, hosted more than 500 campaigns – including cam- record 880,000 in 2014, and then stabilized at the level paigns to pay fines and support victims of the regime’s of approximately 700,000 per year in 2015–2017. persecution – and raised more than one million USD. Internet access has improved considerably. Belarus This rise of grassroots activism points both to a grow- ranks 1st in the post-Soviet region and 32nd out of 175 ing demand for more decentralized and participatory countries regarding the development of internet and institutions and a lack of satisfaction with the state and communication technologies in the 2018 Measuring the public services. Yet, according to the same EBRD report, Information Society Report. In 2018, 80% of Belaru- 87% of respondents realize that they are able to exert no sians used the internet and 65% the mobile internet or very little influence on life at local and national levels. daily. In 2018, 49% of the population were using social media6. Consequently, Belarusian society is undergoing a Cultural revival value shift. It wants less paternalism and is less in- clined to rely on the state. An EBRD study revealed The conflict in Ukraine boosted the quest for national that a plurality now shows a preference for democratic self-identification and, in particular, revitalized the institutions over a “strong hand” (35% to 28%), and interest in Belarusian language, history and culture.
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