Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies

WEBSITE OF THE EXPERT COMMUNITY OF BELARUS NASHE MNENIE (OUR OPINION1) AGENCY FOR SOCIAL AND POLITICAL EXPERT APPRAISAL BELARUSIAN INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2012 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in 2012 Minsk, 2013 2 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2012 Compiled and edited by: Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova English version translated by Mark Bence, Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Taciana Tulu-Aleksandroviè English version edited by Mark Bence, Max Nuijens, Taciana Tulu- Aleksandroviè Scientific reviewers and consultants: Aleksandr Feduta (Associate Professor of the European Humanitarian university); Oleg Manaev (Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies); Andrei Vardomatski (Laboratory of Axiometrical Re- search NOVAK); Vladimir Dounaev (Agency for Social and Political Ex- pert Appraisal); Olga Shparaga (European Humanitarian University, website Novaja Europa (New Europe)); Andrei Kazakevich (Institute for Poli- tical Studies Palityènaja Sfiera); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center BEROC); Viktor Chernov (independent expert, political scientist); Miroslav Kollar (Institute for Public Af- fairs, Program Director of the Slovak annual Global Report). Prepress by Taciana Tulu-Aleksandroviè The yearbook is published with support of The German Marshall Fund of the United States The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board. ISSN 18224091 © Website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (nmnby.eu); Agency for Social and Political Appraisal 3 CONTENTS EDITORIAL FOREWORD 7 STATE AUTHORITY Nikolai Burov The Administration of the President: Between Scylla of the socially oriented economy and Charybdis of the wild oligarchy 13 Ina Ramasheuskaya The Government That Has No Fear 20 Alexey Medvetsky Security Agencies: The rise of new elites 28 Andrei Porotnikov Armed Forces: Degradation of the defense potential 35 Andrei Kazakevich Parliament: Constancy with minimal changes 43 Dzmitry Kukhlei Local Authorities: Stability and controllability 53 Andrei Yahorau Parliamentary Elections of 2012: A show in keeping with the worst traditions 60 4 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2012 FOREIGN POLICY Kirill Koktysh RussiaBelarus: Eurasian waltz 73 Dzianis Melyantsou At a Deadlock: Development of relations between Belarus and the European Union 80 Andrei Fyodarau BelarusUSA: Stepping Off the Freezing Point? 90 Kamil Klysinski Polish-Belarusian Relations: Year of stagnation in hostile atmosphere 97 Gennady Maksak BelarusUkraine: Between the Customs Union and the European Union 102 Andrei Yeliseyeu Belarus and Developing Countries: Faulty single-commodity export orientation 112 SOCIETY Dzmitry Brukhavetski Pro-Government NGOs: Everyone chooses his own service... 125 Irina Dounaeva Third Sector: Solidarity and competition 133 5 Yury Chavusau Political Parties: Between a boycott and parliamentary election campaigning 143 Arkadz Nesciarenka Media: Conservative reform/migration 155 Mikhail Doroshevich, Marina Sokolova Internet Development and Usage 163 Vladimir Dounaev Contradicting Ideas for Education Policy 177 Andrei Laurukhin The Swing Principle in Science and Innovations: Between radical modernisation and maintaining the status quo 188 Natallia Vasilevich Churches and the State: Ten years after the law On religion 196 Andrej Vitushka Health Care: End of the welfare state 205 Maksim Zhbankou Post-National Culture: Life in defiance of concepts216 Barys Tasman Sports: Olympic failure and overall regression 225 6 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2012 Yury Drakakhrust Public Opinion: Back to what it used to be, or a bifurcation point? 233 Nadezhda Yefimova The Most Momentous Events of 2012 through the Prism of Public Opinion 239 ECONOMY Dzmitry Kruk Macroeconomic Situation: Back to the old economic policy 247 Alexander Mukha Currency Market and Banking System: Early recovery or short-term break? 258 Kiryl Haiduk Labor Market and Social Policy: Peak of political business cycle and modernization 265 Tatsiana Manionak Energy Sector: The heyday before the sale 275 Maria Akulova Foreign Investments: Focusing on loans 284 Konstantin Skuratovich Agriculture: First growth, then money 293 AUTHORS 299 7 EDITORIAL FOREWORD Belarusian Yearbook is a long-term joint project of the expert community of Belarus. This publication is an annual integral analysis of the essential spheres of the state and society. Belaru- sian Yearbook-2012 reflects the limited socio-political and economic dynamics of Belarus, limited to the effect that the funda- mental framework of the countrys development remains inva- riable self-preservation of the authoritarian personalistic regime of Alexander Lukashenko. In the sphere of state authority (government) almost all analysts observe the increasing tendency of the Presidential Ad- ministration to monopolize governmental (administrative), legi- slative, political, ideological and other functions, its attempts to substitute governmental structures, including the Foreign Mini- stry and the parliament. Since December 2012, a number of authority powers have been redistributed in favour of law-en- forcement bodies, which have subjugated the judicial brunch. Therefore, the tendency of narrowing of the state described in the 2011 issue when the decision-making authority is being concentrated in hands of a gradually narrowing group of people who bear no responsibility for implementing the decisions continued to develop. Parliamentary elections 2012 proved that the system of electoral manipulations is stable and the authorities retain total con- trol over the election process. Democratic forces failed to reach unity and benefit from the parliamentary elections, which ques- tions their ability to take advantage of the presidential election 2015 for political transformations. Concentration of power resulted in the deficit of technical, financial and personnel resources that are essential for the burning political and economic reforms. The authorities hesitate to aban- don the model of a socially-oriented state but develop no integral plan of the countrys development, which results in narrowing the zone of the states social responsibility, i.e. spon- taneous commercialization of public services (education, health care, etc.) and gradual reduction of social transfers. 8 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2012 Sociologists observe that the population tend to adapt to the economic conditions that formed after the triple devaluation of 2011. Despite the attempts to curb the financial crisis and raise the income of the population, electoral ratings and the level of the confidence in the authorities have stagnated. Besides, sociologists register growing pro-European and reducing pro-Rus- sian moods. The year 2012 is the year of inertial post-crisis1 development of Belarus. The economic crisis as a form of painful reme- dy against the accumulated macroeconomic disproportions did not resolve the basic problems of the Belarusian socio-economic model, whereas the positive effects of the devaluation of the national currency were exhausted already in the first six months. Having no better strategy, the economic authorities returned to the time-tested policy of inflationary growth. All other critical tendencies that formed in 20102011 were curbed in the simi- lar manner, i.e. by attempts to restore the previous situation (the conventional restoration point is December 2010). The major trends of the year 2012 are the following: • Institutional transformations: narrowing of the state, increasing role of the Presidential Administration and security agencies; • Imbalances in state authority: uncoordinated actions of the Presidential Administration, the government and the National Bank; • Crisis of the state policy that shows itself in failure to pro- pose a minimal program of reforms and any program for the future whatsoever; • Increasing foreign-policy and economic dependence of Be- larus on Russia; • Narrowing social obligations of the state; • Stagnation of electoral ratings and indicators of confidence in the authorities; • Return to the pre-crisis policy of increasing incomes, search for new sources of long-term growth; • Reduction of able-bodied population, increased temporal labor migration, outflow of manpower. 1 The financial and economic crisis of 2011. Editorial foreword 9 Contributing to this Yearbook were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing various think tanks, including the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), the Institute for Political Studies Palityènaja Sfiera (Political Sphere), the Research Center of the Institute for Privatization and Management, the Agency of Humanitarian Technologies, NOVAK Axiometrical Research Laboratory, the Belarusian Ana- lytical Workshop (Warsaw, Poland), the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS), the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), the Centre for Eastern Studies (Warsaw, Poland), the Polesski Fund of In- ternational and Regional Studies (Chernihiv, Ukraine), eBelarus Research Center, Agency for Social and Political Appraisal, the website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (Our opinion). Valeria Kostyugova Anatoly Pankovsky 10 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2012 11 STATE AUTHORITY 12 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2012 13 THE ADMINISTRATION OF THE PRESIDENT: BETWEEN SCYLLA OF THE SOCIALLY ORIENTED ECONOMY AND CHARYBDIS OF THE “WILD”

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