Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies Website of the Expert Community of Belarus “Our Opinion”
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1 BELARUSIAN INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES WEBSITE OF THE EXPERT COMMUNITY OF BELARUS “OUR OPINION” BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2009 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in 2009 Minsk, 2010 2 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2009 Compiled and edited by: Anatoly Pankovsky and Valeria Kostyugova English version translated by Volha Hapeyeva, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Tatsiana Tulush English version edited by Max Nuijens Scientific reviewers and consultants: Miroslav Kollar, Institute for Public Affairs, Program Director of the Slovak annual Global Report; Vitali Silitski, Doctor of Philosophy, Director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS, Lithuania); Pavel Daneiko, Institute for Privatization and Management; Andrei Vardomatski, Doctor of Sociology, NOVAK laboratory; Petr Martsev, BISS Board member; Ales Antipenko, PhD in philosophy, head of the Belarusian Collegium; Oleg Manaev, Doctor of Sociology, the Independent Institute of Socio.Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS); Vladimir Dunaev, PhD in philosophy, website Nashe Mneniye (“Our opinion”); Aleksei Pikulik, Doctor of Political Science, St. Petersburg Humanitarian University. The yearbook is published with support of The German Marshall Fund of the United States ISSN 1822.4091 © Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies 3 CONTENTS Editorial foreword 6 STATE AUTHORITY Vital Silitsky Presidential administration an uncertain new line 8 Zmicier Kuhlei Representative power branch 17 Vadim Sehovitch Government: A crisis test 25 Andrei Kazakevich Judicial Power: Relative autonomy and accent on freedom 32 Sergej Satsuk Law Enforcement Agencies: New Personnel Policy 41 Alexander Alesin Armed forces: Slow-paced rearmament 48 FOREIGN POLICY Valeria Kostyugova, Anatoli Pankovski Russian-Belarusian Relations: Together apart 54 Denis Melyantsov Belarus-EU: Protracted normalization 64 Kamil Klysinski Polish-Belarusian Relations: Continuation of pragmatism 74 Gennadi Maksak Belarus Ukraine: On the way to strategic cooperation? 81 Andrei Fyodorov Belarus USA: Who should take the first step? 90 Sergei Bogdan From Karakas to Tehran: Belarusian Diplomacy in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Africa 99 4 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2009 SOCIETY Yuri Chausov Political parties in times of political standstill 113 Tatyana Vodolazhskaya The third sector: Two response options to challenges 125 Alexey Medvetsky Mass Media: Selective liberalization against the background of repressions 133 Marina Sokolova Belarusian Media Online: Users, structure, legislation and regulation 141 Svetlana Matskevich Education: no problems, or Self-determination the Belarusian way 152 Alexander Gritsanov Science: Innovation, imitation, degradation 166 Natallia Vasilevich Religious Sphere Development in Belarus: Between the pope and the patriarch 175 Maksim Zhbankov Culture: Quest for new matrices 191 Maria Eismont Healthcare: High technologies vs management inefficiency 199 Boris Tasman Sport Stuck in the Development Model 206 Sergey Nikolyuk Public Opinion. Presidents Rating as Last Islet of Stability 214 Nadezhda Yefimova Economic Crisis: 2009 as mirrored by public opinion 221 5 ECONOMY Dmitry Kruk Macroeconomics: Growth based on unstable factors 231 Alexander Mukha Belarusian Banking Sector and Money Market Review 2009 243 Kiryl Haiduk Labor Market and Social Policy: Controversial targets: wage push and preservation of employment 250 Yelena Rakova Energy Sector: Rent Cuts 259 Tatiana Manionok More Loans instead of Privatization 267 Konstantin Skuratovich Agriculture: Irredeemable debts 274 APPENDIX. References 280 AUTHORS 331 6 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2009 EDITORIAL FOREWORD The Belarusian Yearbook has become a traditional annual effort of Belarusian experts and specialists to compile a conceptualized chronicle of the country’s modern history. This unique publication offers an integrated analytical account of events and trends in different governmental and social spheres. In 2009 social and political life in Belarus was determined by the world economic crisis, the country’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund about minimization of the impact of the crisis, a broader dialogue with Europe, and Belarus joining the EU Eastern partnership program. These international processes reflected differently on all segments of Belarusian social life. The contributors to the Yearbook sought to provide an adequate and politically neutral review of these processes. However, the editors and the authors gave preference to deep analysis and wide coverage of events and trends, rather than to the neutrality of the approach. Contributing to this yearbook were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing different research centers, such as the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (Lithuania), the Institute for Political Research Palitychnaya sfera (“Political Sphere”), the Research Center of the Institute for Privatization and Management, the Agency of Humanitarian Technologies – Center for Social Innovation, Novak Axiometric Research Laboratory, the Independent Institute for Social, Political and Economic Studies, the Centre for Eastern Studies (Warsaw, Poland), the analytical center Polesye Fund of International and Regional Studies (Chernigov, Ukraine), and the research center eBelarus. The authors of this yearbook hope that, on the one hand, their work will stimulate public debate about current transformations in Belarus and development options open to the country and, on the other hand, it will benefit state functionaries, business leaders, members of the diplomatic corps, journalists, politicians and community leaders. Valeria Kostyugova Anatoly Pankovsky Vitali Silitsky 7 STATE AUTHORITY 8 BELARUSIAN YEARBOOK 2009 PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION – AN UNCERTAIN NEW LINE Vital Silitsky Summary In 2009 the presidential administration remained the decisionmaking “epicenter”. The main tendencies of its activity that we had outlined in the previous analysis1, – the substitution by the administration of the activity of some state bodies, its transformation into the shadow Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the shadow Ministry of Economy – showed themselves in new colors in 2009. What also deserves attention is the actual transformation of the administration into the shadow intelligence service in connection with the occurrence of the operativeanalytical centre under the president of Belarus which received large powers concerning investigatory operations and control over the Internet space. The activity of the presidential administration was defined by the personnel policy of the head of the state and by the agendas of the management of the administration who started to combine the status of state machinery politicians with the status of public politicians. As to the consequences of the activity of the presidential administration for inner and foreign policy of the development of the country, they were formed by uncertainty of the general vector of the development of the state and certain entropy of “Lukashenka’s transformations” – even despite the external pressure and the world crisis, the system managed to survive without radical transformations; therefore the activity of the presidential administration entirely coincided with “the adaptable scenario” that had been realized by the authorities since 2007, – carrying out of a minimum of the transformations necessary to satisfy external donors, the basic geopolitical players. Tendencies: • The presidential administration keeps frustrating economic reforms; • The activity of the presidential administration substitutes the activity of other state governing bodies; • Senior executives of the administration get the status of public politicians Presidential administration as the shadow government As for economy “the shadow Ministry of Economy” became the main factor of blocking privatization in 2009. Assistant to the 1 Silitsky V. Presidential Administration // Belarusian Year book 2008. Minsk, 2009. – Pp. 7–18. State Authority 9 president Siarhey Tkachou confirmed his reputation of anti. reformer in an article of newspaper “Soviet Belarus” in August, 2009, having said that “nobody has yet proved the advantages of private property over the state one”. Moreover, Tkachou actually called for curtailment of those half.reforms in the sphere of liberalization of conditions of business that had been carried out during the previous two years. In particular, Tkachou said that in the real partnership relations with the state private business must use its profit for social needs, otherwise the state can nationalize the property2. The presidential administration successfully struggled with the government and the Ministries of Economy in order not to ease the control over transferring of the property to the private individuals from the head of the state. The bill, prepared by the government and blocked at the presidential administration, provided the possibility to sell the shares of companies which had not been sold at competitive auctions, at the stock exchange, allowed the sale of unprofitable enterprises for the balance price, gave the chance to company sales at one participant of auction when other requests did not come and also provided a new mechanism of denationalization – transfer of the enterprise to management. The status quo at which the privatization approval is necessary, even for transactions with the minimum sum, remained. At the same time it is not necessary that privatization will be blocked in general in the future. Probably, transactions