15 15 15 15 15 15 22 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Nordic Tourism Outlook 15 15 March 2018 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 1 15 15 Nordic travel relative to wider global demand
Europe has long been the recipient of the lion's share of international travel including some of the most popular destinations in the world. In Nordics in the context of global arrivals 2000, it received 57% of total global visitors. However, despite growth No. of arrivals (000s) in European arrivals its share has since diminished. 1,400,000
The Nordic region is a subset of Europe, which in itself received 3% of Middle East & Africa 1,200,000 total global arrivals in 2000. And while the rest of Europe's global share Americas was diminishing, the Nordic region continued to attract 3% share of all travel in 2017. Growth in the Nordic region outpaced travel to the rest 1,000,000 Nordics of Europe over this period. Rest of Europe 800,000 The majority of European arrivals come from within the region, but Asia Pacific rising household wealth and travel demand, along with increased connectivity and development of emerging destinations has facilitated 600,000 an increased propensity for travelling further afield. This has allowed some other regions to gain share. 400,000 In addition, the rate of economic growth in Asia and household wealth accumulation has created demand that did not previously exist, with 200,000 the emergence of a new travel class in emerging markets such as China. Much of the new tourism demand has been for short-haul 0 destinations, and notably within Asia. However, some demand has 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 seeped into Europe and stymied its loss of share to a degree.
Many of the largest city destinations in the world for international travel Share of international travel by region are within Europe and are set to enjoy continued growth in demand, No. of arrivals (000s), 2017 even if this involves some loss of global market share. % share of global arrivals, 2017
The charts opposite show total international arrivals to country destinations at a regional level. For example, Europe includes total international arrivals at all European country destinations included 139,466 within the Global Country Travel service. 10% 317,749 The top chart shows the total number of international arrivals growing 24% over time since 2000 (with some decline following the global financial 209,293 Asia Pacific crisis in 2007-08) and the proportion of total arrivals owing to each 16% region of the world. Rest of Europe Nordics The bottom chart gives a snapshot based on 2017 arrivals, by which point Europe's share of total arrivals was just shy of half the world total. 37,910 Americas 3% Middle East & Africa
630,317 47%
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 2 Nordic travel from major long-haul markets
Short-haul travel accounts for the bulk of the travel demand for Nordic destinations (81%) - a comparable Long-haul share of arrivals to Nordic countries ratio to many other European destinations. % share arrivals 20% Long-haul travel is taking a growing share of demand. Long-haul markets accounted for just 12% of arrivals in 18% Nordic destinations in 2000 and the ratio fell to 9% in 16% 2003. Since then the trend has been upward and by 14% 2007 long-haul markets provided 16% of all arrivals. Long-haul market importance fell during the financial 12% crisis but has since risen further to generate 19% of all 10% arrivals in 2017. 8% 6% Arrivals from the large source markets of USA, China and India accounted for over half of the total long-haul 4% demand in 2007. These markets are expected to 2% continue to grow in prominence and drive long-haul 0% demand growth. China and India in particular are rapidly growing developing markets and will continue to rise in importance and support growth to the Nordic region.
Arrivals volumes from India and China represented less than 1% of total arrivals in 2000 and around 1.5% of Nordic arrivals by 2007. By 2017, these markets accounted for 3.6% of all Nordic arrivals, and almost two- Share of arrivals to Nordic countries fifths of all demand from long-haul markets. No. of arrivals (000s), 2017 % share of total arrivals, 2017 Over the next ten years, rapid economic growth in China 3,043 and India and the continued emergence of a new middle 1,085 8% class will further fuel travel demand. These markets are 3% expected to provide over 5% of all travel to the Nordic 264 region. 1% Growth from the the US has not been as dramatic, but it 2,640 is expected to remain a larger source market. In 2000, 7% the US provided around 4% of all travel to the region. Short-haul This share fluctuated in the following years but was little US changed by 2007. However, in recent years, the importance of the US has increased sharply and it India provided 7% of all arrivals in 2017. The US is expected to China continue to grow as a source market and is set to increase slightly further in importance over the coming Other long-haul ten years. 30,879 81%
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 3 Outbound travel from major long-haul source markets
US: Distribution of outbound travel India: Distribution of outbound travel China: Distribution of outbound travel No. arrivals (000s) No. arrivals (000s) No. arrivals (000s) 120,000 18,000 90,000
16,000 80,000 100,000 14,000 70,000
80,000 12,000 60,000
10,000 50,000 60,000 8,000 40,000
40,000 6,000 30,000
4,000 20,000 20,000 2,000 10,000
0 0 0
Rest World Rest Europe Nordics Rest World Rest Europe Nordics Rest World Rest Europe Nordics
US: Distribution of long-haul travel India: Distribution of long-haul travel China: Distribution of long-haul travel % total outbound by destination region % total outbound by destination region % total outbound by destination region 25% 45% 30%
40% 25% 20% 35%
30% 20% 15% 25% 15% 20% 10% 15% 10%
10% 5% 5% 5%
0% 0% 0%
Rest Europe Nordics Rest Europe Nordics Rest Europe Nordics
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 4 Arrivals from major long-haul markets
There have been a number of boom and bust cycles since 2000, with declines most notable in the 2007- US: Arrivals to Nordic countries 09 period during the global financial crisis. But as the global recovery has gathered pace there has been a No. of arrivals (000s) Forecast marked uptick in the number of arrivals from these three long-haul source markets. And this growth is 5,000 expected to continue into the forecast period. Travel to Nordic countries from the US and India doubled over the past ten years. Chinese travel was even more rapid and 2017 arrivals were almost four times 4,500 larger than in 2007. 4,000 Growth from the US was particularly strong in recent years and is expected to slow over the next decade 3,500 as the dollar weakens. Growth is expected to average 5% per year over the 2017-27 period (down from around 7% average growth over the past decade) which will be aided by a stable economy and faciltiated 3,000 further by increasing connectivity between the US and Europe. Transatlantic low cost services, such as those provided by Norwegian, will continue to drive some demand growth. US will remain the largest of 2,500 the three long-haul markets. It is currently around 2.5 times larger than China in terms of arrivals volumes, 2,000 although this gap will narrow slightly. 1,500 Growth in demand from India is set to slow moderately from an average rate of 7% over the past ten years to 6% over the next decade. There is large upside potential given expected economic growth, and scope 1,000 for further reform, but the forecasts remain cautious. 500
Travel from China is set to slow but visitor volumes should more than double again over the next ten 0 years. This growth is tied to household wealth accumulation and the emergence of a new travel class. An 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 increasing amount of this demand will be attracted to European and Nordic destinations.
India visitor arrivals to Nordic countries China visitor arrivals to Nordic countries No. arrivals (000s) No. arrivals (000s) Forecast Forecast 600 2,500
500 2,000
400 1,500
300
1,000 200
500 100
0 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 5 Distribution of Nordic arrivals by source market
US: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 2017 India: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 2017 China: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 2017 Iceland Denmark Denmark Finland Iceland
Sweden Norway Norway Finland
Sweden
Iceland
Sweden Finland Denmark
Expected arrivals growth from US Expected arrivals growth from India Expected arrivals growth from China Nordic destinations ranked based on 2017 levels Nordic destinations ranked based on 2017 levels Nordic destinations ranked based on 2017 levels
Sweden Sweden Sweden
Denmark Norway Denmark Norway Denmark Iceland Iceland Finland
Finland Finland Iceland
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27
Note: Norway does not report arrivals from India.
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 6 Arrivals from major long-haul markets
Arrivals growth profiles for each constituent country of the Nordic region from the US, India, and China are US: Arrivals to Nordic countries broadly aligned over the historical period. There are some broadly comparable trends by destination Index 2017 = 100 country and source market but with some variance in the magnitude of movements. 200 Forecast
Iceland has enjoyed an explosion in arrivals in recent years, helped by its growing status as a transatlantic 180 hub which has facilitated significant growth from the US. However, Iceland has also experienced 160 spectacular growth from China in recent years. It still only receives a relatively small share of Nordic demand (5% US travel to the region and 2% Chinese travel), but growth is set to moderate from all source 140 markets. 120 Arrivals to Sweden from these long-haul source markets have been the most sensitive to economic 100 shocks in the historical period, notably in the global financial crisis years. During this period declines in arrivals to Sweden were significantly greater than those felt by other Nordic countries. 80
The relative proximity of the Nordic countries and their unified visa requirements (as part of the Schengen 60 Area) mean they can largely all be jointly visited by long-haul travellers as part of a single trip. Future arrivals growth outlook, much like their historical trends, are broadly aligned, with Iceland the outlier in 40 some cases. 20
0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Norway
India: Arrivals to Nordic countries China: Arrivals to Nordic countries Index 2017 = 100 Index 2017 = 100 Forecast 200 250 Forecast
180
160 200
140
120 150
100
80 100
60
40 50
20
0 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Norway
Note: Norway does not report arrivals from India.
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 7 Nights from major long-haul markets
Overnights from these markets have been growing at a faster pace than arrivals. This means that on US: Nights to Nordic countries average visitors from these long-haul source markets are typically staying in the Nordic region for longer No. of nights (000s) than in the past. This is an economic benefit for the region as longer stays translate into higher spending, 8,000 Forecast GDP contribution, and employment. 7,000 Average length of stay in each Nordic country remains relatively low and many visitors from long-haul travel around the region, including on organised tours, visiting multiple destinations within the same trip. 6,000
The average length of stay in each country for a visitor from the US in 2000 was 1.2 days and rose to 1.8 5,000 days in 2017. In the forecast period this will increase slightly more before falling to 1.6 days by 2027. Overnights growth from the US to the Nordic region is expected to average 3.5% per year over the 2017- 4,000 27 period.
In 2000 the average length of a trip to each Nordic country from India and China was similar but by 2017 3,000 this has risen to 1.3 days from India and to 2.2 days from China. This faster rate of growth from China may be tied to its higher wealth per capita versus India, which facilitates longer trips abroad. Overnights 2,000 growth from India and China are expected to grow by an average rate of 5.1% and 6.2% per year respectively over the 2017-27 period. 1,000
Average length of stay by market for the region as a whole will likely be higher than the figures described 0 above as multiple destinations may be visited per trip. 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
India: Nights to Nordic countries China: Nights to Nordic countries No. nights (000s) No. nights (000s) Forecast Forecast 800 3,500
700 3,000
600 2,500 500 2,000 400 1,500 300 1,000 200
100 500
0 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 8 Distribution of Nordic overnights by source market
US: Nights to Nordic countries, 2017 India: Nights to Nordic countries, 2017 China: Nights to Nordic countries, 2017
Iceland Finland Denmark
Finland Norway Norway Iceland
Iceland
Denmark Sweden
Denmark Finland Sweden
Sweden
Expected nights growth from US Expected nights growth from India Expected nights growth from China Nordic destinations ranked based on 2017 levels Nordic destinations ranked based on 2017 levels Nordic destinations ranked based on 2017 levels
Sweden Sweden Sweden
Denmark Denmark Denmark Norway Finland Iceland Iceland Iceland
Finland Finland Norway
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27
Note: Norway does not report nights from India.
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 9 Nights from major long-haul markets
US: Nights to Nordic countries Some more detailed data are available for overnights to Nordic destinations than for visits; also notable in Index 2017 = 100 city data. 200 Forecast Overnights growth profiles for each constituent country of the Nordic region from the US, India, and China 180 are broadly aligned over the historical period, as in the arrivals data. 160 Iceland has enjoyed massive overnights growth in recent years from all selected long-haul source markets, mirroring the strong growth in arrivals. However, growth from India was evident in earlier years 140 than for the other markets, and notably in the years to 2007. More recent data shows that growth in 120 overnights in Iceland from India has been more subdued than the increases from other source markets and also more subdued than Indian growth to other Nordic destinations. 100
In contrast to its arrivals growth profile, overnights to Sweden from the long-haul source markets are more 80 comparable to the profiles for the other Nordic countries in terms of year-to-year volatility. This also implies some improvement in average length of stay, but it should also be noted that Swedish data for 60 nights and arrivals may not be fully consistent. 40
20
0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Norway
India: Nights to Nordic countries China: Nights to Nordic countries Index 2017 = 100 Index 2017 = 100 Forecast 200 250 Forecast
180
160 200
140
120 150
100
80 100
60
40 50
20
0 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Norway
Note: Norway does not report nights from India.
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 10 US forecast
Outbound travel from the United States has grown US: Arrivals to top Nordic countries, 2007-2027 significantly over the past ten years, and notably over the No. arrivals (000s) past five years, helped by the relative strength of the 1,400 dollar which has improved the affordability of outbound travel. While the strength of the dollar is waning, sizeable growth is still expected with all Nordic destinations 1,200 benefitting. 1,000 Sweden had the greatest number of arrivals from the US in 2007 and 2017, and is expected to remain the most popular Nordic country for US visitors in 2027 in terms of 800 footfall. 600 However, rapid growth in travel to Iceland means that by 2017 Iceland was the most popular overnights 400 destinations with 3 times as many US overnights as Sweden, the next most popular overnight destination in the Nordic region. By 2027, Iceland is expected to remain 200 the most popular overnights destination in the region, boasting more than twice the number of overnights than 0 Sweden, the next most popular. Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Norway 2007 2017 2027 Average length of stay is much higher for US travellers to Iceland than for any of the other Nordic destinations. This US: Nights to top Nordic countries, 2007-2027 may be due to more independent visits rather than as part No. nights (000s) of a multi-destination trip. 4,000 New York is the a top source market city for European 3,500 destinations and also for Nordics. Los Angeles is the next largest city market, despite the longer flight distance involved. Houston and Chicago are among the top five 3,000 source markets for travel to long-haul destinations, Europe and the Nordics. 2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Norway 2007 2017 2027
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 11 India forecast
India's outbound travel is set to continue to grow in line India: Arrivals to top Nordic countries, 2007-2027 with economic expansion. It is one of the fastest growing No. arrivals (000s) large economies (with the fastest GDP growth among 400 BRICs), and it is becoming an increasingly important source market for many destinations including the Nordic countries. 350
Sweden received the greatest number of arrivals from 300 India in 2007 and 2017, and is expected to remain the most popular Nordic country for Indian visits in 2027. This 250 is also true of overnights, which also imply a low average length of stay. However, the short stays do not appear to 200 be related to trips involving mutliple Nordic destinations as travel is highly concentrated in Sweden. 150
Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai are the top city source 100 markets. Source market patterns are comparable to the rest of Europe. 50
0 Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark 2007 2017 2027
India: Nights to top Nordic countries, 2007-2027 No. nights (000s) 500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark 2007 2017 2027
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 12 China forecast
Chinese outbound travel is set to continue to grow in line China: Arrivals to top Nordic countries, 2007-2027 with economic expansion and the rapid growth of China's middle class. Some growth in Chinese travel demand to No. arrivals (000s) Europe is expected and will be aided by ever-improving 700 air links. 600 Sweden was the most popular Chinese arrivals destination in the Nordic region in 2007, but in 2017 was 500 overtaken by Finland and Norway, in terms of visits. By 2027, Sweden is expected to reclaim its position as the most visited Nordic country by Chinese tourists. 400
The trend in overnights broadly follows this pattern, but 300 with some differences due to patterns in typical length of stay. Norway has also overtaken Sweden in terms of overnights in 2017, while Finland remains the third largest 200 destination in terms of overnights. 100 Lower length of stay in Finland may be due to its growing status as a significant European air traffic hub. This is 0 particularly emphasised by the large route selection Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Norway between Helsinki and Asia: in 2016 Helsinki offered 25 2007 2017 2027 weekly flights to destinations in China, whereas Copenhagen offered 14 and Stockholm nine. There are China: Nights to top Nordic countries, 2007-2027 clear opportunities to increase overnights, and the associated economic benefit, by encouraging long-haul No. nights (000s) visitors to spend longer within the country. 1,000 900 Shanghai is the largest city source market for travel to long-haul destinations, Europe and the Nordics. Hong 800 Kong and Beijing are also a very important markets, while Guangzhou and Tianjin are also among the top ten source 700 markets. 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark Norway 2007 2017 2027
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 13 Top Global city destinations, 2016 vs 2021
Global cities: total domestic and inbound arrivals Global cities: international arrivals Top markets and Nordic cities, 2021 Top markets and Nordic cities, 2021
Chongqing (CN) Hong Kong, China (HK) Shanghai (CN) Bangkok (TH) Karachi (PK) Macao, China (MO) Mexico City (MX) Dubai (AE) Beijing (CN) London (UK) Tokyo (JP) Istanbul (TR) Wuhan, Hubei (CN) Singapore (SG) Hangzhou, Zhejiang (CN) Kuala Lumpur (MY) Bangkok (TH) New York, NY (US) Hong Kong, China (HK) Tokyo (JP) Chengdu, Sichuan (CN) Shenzhen (CN) Shenyang, Liaoning (CN) Antalya (TR) 2016 2016 Las Vegas, NV (US) Paris (FR) 2021 2021 Hokkaido (JP) Rome (IT) Acapulco (MX) Tunis (TN) Lahore (PK) Barcelona (ES) Nanjing, Jiangsu (CN) Guangzhou,… New York, NY (US) Kuwait City (KW) Ningbo, Zhejiang (CN) Los Angeles, CA (US) Qingdao, Shandong (CN) Top 20 Osaka (JP) Top 20 Stockholm (SE) Reykjavik (IS) Oslo (NO) Stockholm (SE) Reykjavik (IS) Oslo (NO) Gothenburg (SE) Copenhagen (DK) Helsinki (FI) Helsinki (FI) Copenhagen (DK) Gothenburg (SE)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Arrivals (mns) Arrivals (mns) Markets shown above are the 20 largest city destinations globally, ranked according to expected total arrivals in 2021, plus Nordic city destinations. The left-hand chart includes both domestic and international arrivals. The right-hand chart shows international arrivals only. Both charts show each city destination's size in 2021 as well as its size in 2016. The red dashed line separates Nordic destinations from top markets as Nordic destinations fall outside the top 20. Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 14 Top European city destinations, 2016 vs 2021
European cities: total domestic and inbound arrivals European cities: international arrivals Top markets and Nordic cities, 2021 Top markets and Nordic cities, 2021
London (UK) London (UK) Antalya (TR) Istanbul (TR) Istanbul (TR) Antalya (TR) Paris (FR) Paris (FR) Rome (IT) Rome (IT) Warsaw (PL) Barcelona (ES) Berlin (DE) Amsterdam (NL) Cracow (PL) Prague (CZ) Barcelona (ES) Dublin (IE) Madrid (ES) Madrid (ES) Amsterdam (NL) Vienna (AT) Munich (DE) Berlin (DE) 2016 2016 Prague (CZ) Warsaw (PL) 2021 2021 Milan (IT) Lisbon (PT) Dublin (IE) Milan (IT) Vienna (AT) Budapest (HU) Hamburg (DE) Cracow (PL) Almaty (KZ) Munich (DE) Frankfurt (DE) Bucharest (RO) Lisbon (PT) Top 20 Brussels (BE) Top 20 Stockholm (SE) Reykjavik (IS) Oslo (NO) Stockholm (SE) Reykjavik (IS) Oslo (NO) Gothenburg (SE) Copenhagen (DK) Helsinki (FI) Helsinki (FI) Copenhagen (DK) Gothenburg (SE)
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Arrivals (mns) Arrivals (mns) Markets shown above are Europe's 20 largest city destinations ranked according to expected total arrivals in 2021, plus Nordic city destinations. The left-hand chart includes both domestic and international arrivals. The right-hand chart shows international arrivals only. Both charts show each city destination's size in 2021 as well as its size in 2016. The red dashed line separates Nordic destinations from top markets as Nordic destinations fall outside the top 20. Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 15 Top Nordic city destinations from major long-haul markets
US: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 2017 India: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 2017 China: Arrivals to Nordic countries, 2017 Reykjavik Copenhagen Stockholm Rest of Denmark Rest of Denmark Oslo Rest of Iceland Stockholm Helsinki Gothenburg Gothenburg Gothenburg Copenhagen Helsinki Oslo Rest of Norway Rest of Rest of Finland Sweden Copenhagen Reykjavik
Rest of Helsinki Norway Stockholm
Reykjavik Rest of Rest of Finland Iceland Rest of Finland Rest of Iceland Rest of Sweden Rest of Sweden
Rest of Denmark
Expected arrivals growth, top Nordic cities from US Expected arrivals growth, top Nordic cities from India Expected arrivals growth, top Nordic cities from China City destinations based on 2017 levels City destinations based on 2017 levels City destinations based on 2017 levels Gothenburg Stockholm Stockholm Rest of Sweden Rest of Sweden Rest of Sweden Stockholm Gothenburg Gothenburg Copenhagen Oslo Rest of Norway Rest of Iceland Rest of Norway Rest of Denmark Copenhagen Copenhagen Oslo Reykjavik Helsinki Rest of Iceland Rest of Finland Rest of Finland Reykjavik Rest of Denmark Rest of Finland Helsinki Reykjavik Helsinki Rest of Denmark Rest of Iceland 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 16 Top Nordic city destinations from major long-haul markets
Historic performance by Nordic city destinations in arrivals growth terms followed a similar pattern but Top Nordic city destinations, arrivals from US varied considerably in terms of magnitude. Broadly speaking the trend observed at the Nordic city level Index 2017 = 100 track performance for that Nordic country as a whole, largely due to relatively low number of city Forecast destinations within the Nordic region. 200 180 Sweden is the only Nordic country for which we have data for more than one city destination: data show some stronger arrivals growth in Gothenburg in earlier years compared to Stockholm. But data also show 160 that Gothenburg was more negatively impacted by the global financial crisis of 2007-08 than Stockholm; this was symptomatic of its smaller and less diverse visitor mix (including fewer business travellers, and 140 less VFR) which proved less resilient to the economic shock of the global financial crisis. 120
Some large declines in arrivals from China to Gothenburg were notable in 2009, but this followed sizeable 100 growth in 2008 which may be related to Gothenburg hosting the World Figure Skating Championships. With a lower base of Chinese visitors the impact of an event such as the World Figure Skating 80 Championships can be significant in growth terms, but relatively small in volumes terms. 60
There is large, and growing, demand for travel beyond the capital cities from all long-haul source markets. 40
20
0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 Gothenburg Stockholm Helsinki Copenhagen Oslo Reykjavik
Top Nordic city destinations, arrivals from India Top Nordic city destinations, arrivals from China Index 2017 = 100 Index 2017 = 100 Forecast Forecast 250 300
250 200
200 150
150
100 100
50 50
0 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 Gothenburg Stockholm Helsinki Copenhagen Reykjavik Gothenburg Stockholm Helsinki Copenhagen Oslo Reykjavik
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 17 Top Nordic city destinations from major long-haul markets
US: Nights to top Nordic cities, 2017 India: Nights to top Nordic cities, 2017 China: Nights to top Nordic cities, 2017 Rest of Iceland Rest of Finland Reykjavik Oslo Gothenburg Rest of Denmark Gothenburg Rest of Denmark Stockholm Rest of Denmark Helsinki Stockholm Gothenburg Rest of Sweden Oslo Reykjavik Rest of Norway Helsinki Reykjavik Rest of Norway Rest of Finland
Helsinki
Copenhagen Copenhagen Copenhagen Rest of Sweden Rest of Iceland Stockholm Rest of Rest of Iceland Sweden Rest of Finland
Expected nights growth, top Nordic cities from US Expected nights growth, top Nordic cities from India Expected nights growth, top Nordic cities from China City destinations based on 2017 levels City destinations based on 2017 levels City destinations based on 2017 levels Gothenburg Stockholm Stockholm Rest of Sweden Gothenburg Rest of Sweden Stockholm Gothenburg Rest of Sweden Copenhagen Copenhagen Rest of Norway Copenhagen Helsinki Oslo Rest of Iceland Rest of Denmark Rest of Denmark Rest of Denmark Reykjavik Reykjavik Reykjavik Rest of Finland Rest of Iceland Rest of Iceland Rest of Finland Rest of Finland Oslo Helsinki Helsinki Rest of Norway 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 18 Top Nordic city destinations from major long-haul markets
In terms of overnights to Nordic city destinations from the US, India, and China, patterns are similar to Top Nordic city destinations, Nights from US those observed for overnights at the Nordic country level due to a relatively low number of city Index 2017 = 100 destinations within the Nordic countries and within the Nordic region as a whole. 200 Forecast
The main capital city destinations are more important when measured in terms of overnights than in terms 180 of arrivals; a higher share of overnights are in these cities than the proportion of arrivals. This implies a higher average length of stay in these cities than in the rest of the country. 160
Cities are important hubs for travel, and for exploring the rest of the country. The cities shown here are the 140 main gateways for long-haul travellers to enter the city and often provide a base from which travellers then 120 explore the rest of the country. There are large economic benefits for these cities from long-haul travel despite some relatively low reported arrivals figures. 100
80
60
40
20
0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 Gothenburg Stockholm Helsinki Copenhagen Oslo Reykjavik
Top Nordic city destinations, nights from India Top Nordic city destinations, nights from China Index 2017 = 100 Index 2017 = 100 Forecast Forecast 300 250
250 200
200 150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 Gothenburg Stockholm Helsinki Copenhagen Reykjavik Gothenburg Stockholm Helsinki Copenhagen Oslo Reykjavik
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 19 Top US outbound source cities
US: Top 10 cities for long-haul travel US: Top 10 cities for travel to Europe US: Top 10 cities for travel to Nordics Miami, FL Seattle, WA San Francisco, Atlanta, GA (US) Philadelphia, (US) (US) Boston, MA PA (US) CA (US) Washington DC Washington DC (US) (US) (US) New York, NY (US) New York, NY New York, NY (US) San Francisco, (US) CA (US) San Francisco, CA (US) Dallas, TX (US) Miami, FL (US) Boston, MA Philadelphia, PA (US) (US) Washington DC (US) Dallas, TX (US) Los Angeles, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA CA (US) CA (US) (US) Dallas, TX Houston, TX (US) (US) Houston, TX Chicago, IL Boston, MA (US) Chicago, IL (US) (US) Houston, TX Chicago, IL (US) (US) (US)
Expected outbound growth for long-haul travel Expected outbound growth for travel to Europe Expected outbound growth for travel to Nordics Based on 2017 levels Based on 2017 levels Based on 2017 levels Houston, TX Atlanta, GA Houston, TX Dallas, TX Houston, TX Seattle, WA Miami, FL Dallas, TX Washington DC Washington DC Washington DC San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA Miami, FL Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA Boston, MA Boston, MA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX New York, NY New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL Boston, MA Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia, PA New York, NY 0% 2% 4% 6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 20 Top Indian outbound source cities
India: Top 10 cities for long-haul travel India: Top 10 cities for travel to Europe India: Top 10 cities for travel to Nordics Surat (IN) Surat (IN) Agra (IN) Agra (IN) Hyderabad Agra (IN) Hyderabad (IN) Ahmadabad (IN) Surat (IN) (IN) Pune (IN) Ahmadabad (IN) Hyderabad (IN) Delhi (IN) Ahmadabad Mumbai (IN) Kolkata (IN) (IN) Kolkata (IN) Delhi (IN)
Pune (IN) Pune (IN) Kolkata (IN)
Chennai (IN) Chennai (IN) Chennai (IN)
Bangalore (IN) Mumbai (IN) Delhi (IN) Bangalore (IN) Mumbai (IN) Bangalore (IN)
Expected outbound growth for long-haul travel Expected outbound growth for travel to Europe Expected outbound growth for travel to Nordics Based on 2017 levels Based on 2017 levels Based on 2017 levels Bangalore Bangalore Bangalore Surat Surat Surat Agra Agra Hyderabad Hyderabad Delhi Agra Ahmadabad Hyderabad Ahmadabad Delhi Ahmadabad Delhi Chennai Chennai Chennai Kolkata Kolkata Kolkata Pune Pune Pune Mumbai Mumbai Mumbai 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 21 Top Chinese outbound source cities
China: Top 10 cities for long-haul travel China: Top 10 cities for travel to Europe China: Top 10 cities for travel to Nordics Dalian, Harbin, Wuhan, Hubei Wuhan, Hubei Wuxi, Jiangsu (CN) Liaoning (CN) Heilongjiang (CN) (CN) (CN) Wuxi, Jiangsu (CN) Wuhan, Hubei Shanghai (CN) (CN) Shanghai (CN) Shanghai (CN) Wuxi, Jiangsu (CN) Nanjing, Jiangsu (CN) Qingdao, Shandong Tianjin (CN) (CN) Qingdao, Shandong (CN) Guangzhou, Guangdong Dongguan, (CN) Guangdong Tianjin (CN) (CN) Hong Kong, Chongqing (CN) China (HK) Beijing (CN)
Guangzhou, Beijing (CN) Guangdong (CN) Tianjin (CN)
Guangzhou, Dongguan, Hong Kong, China Dongguan, Guangdong Hong Kong, Guangdong Guangdong (CN) (HK) (CN) China (HK) Beijing (CN) (CN)
Expected outbound growth for long-haul travel Expected outbound growth for travel to Europe Expected outbound growth for travel to Nordics Based on 2017 levels Based on 2017 levels Based on 2017 levels Tianjin Tianjin Tianjin Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Hong Kong, China Harbin, Heilongjiang Chongqing Dalian, Liaoning Beijing Beijing Beijing Dongguan, Guangdong Dongguan, Guangdong Dongguan, Guangdong Wuhan, Hubei Wuhan, Hubei Wuhan, Hubei Qingdao, Shandong Guangzhou, Guangdong Qingdao, Shandong Guangzhou, Guangdong Wuxi, Jiangsu Guangzhou, Guangdong Wuxi, Jiangsu Nanjing, Jiangsu Wuxi, Jiangsu Hong Kong, China Hong Kong, China 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27 CAGR, 2017-27
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 22 About Us
Tourism Economics Sources used in this document:
Tourism Economics is an Oxford Economics All national and regional level data come from Tourism Economics' Global Travel / TDM service, and city level data come from Tourism Economics' company with a singular focus on quantitative Global City Travel service. In both services, tourism statistics are sourced from a variety of national statistical agencies. Specific sources for Nordics analysis of the travel industry. By combining destinations are: rigorous modeling with industry knowledge, Tourism Economics develops custom market Finland: Statistics Finland strategies, industry forecasts, policy analysis Denmark: Visit Denmark & Statistics Denmark and economic impact studies. Our parent Iceland: Statistics Iceland company, Oxford Economics, is one of the Norway: Statistics Norway world's leading providers of economic analysis, Sweden: Statistics Sweden & Swedish Agency for Economic Growth forecasts and consulting advice. Founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University's For non-Nordics destinations (e.g. as in the Global Top Cities and European Top Cities charts), data are sourced from official statistical agencies, business college, Oxford Economics enjoys a where this information is published. Where data are not direclty published, estimates are derived from industry data (lodging and aviation data). reputation for high quality, quatitative analysis and evidence-based advice. Further details of methodology can be provided upon request.
Contacts
North American Clients: Adam Sacks ([email protected]), or; Aran Ryan ([email protected])
Non-North American Clients: David Goodger ([email protected]), or; Helen McDermott ([email protected])
Economist: Helen McDermott, Lead Economist | Tel: +44 28 9263 5404 | e-mail: [email protected] 23