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M:Bility | Magazine Q  an Automotive World Publication Is Tesla in Crisis? Fires, Crashes and Missed Deliveries Anger the Wall Street Bulls

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M:Bility | Magazine Q  an Automotive World Publication Is Tesla in Crisis? Fires, Crashes and Missed Deliveries Anger the Wall Street Bulls M:bility | Magazine Q An Automotive World publication Is Tesla in crisis? Fires, crashes and missed deliveries anger the Wall Street bulls Also inside How can CASE revolutionise cities? Amazon: the car of the future will talk back Motor City vs. Silicon Valley: who wins the talent war? Automotive World est. 1992 Informing the decisions of automotive industry stakeholders since 1992. https://automotiveworld.com M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 Published in June 2019 by : Welcome... Automotive World est. 1992 …to the Q3 2019 issue of M:bility magazine. Automotive World ‘Mobility’ is the buzzword of 2019, but while the term can be 1-3 Washington Buildings easily crowbarred into a press release, turning statements of Stanwell Road, Penarth, intent into reality requires a bit more finesse. CF64 2AD, UK Today’s marketing ploys would suggest that the business of making cars has been turned on its head as investment is www.automotiveworld.com funnelled into connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE) technologies. But while manufacturers look to the T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 future, it has become clear that the core principles of running a [email protected] business must remain intact. In May, Volkswagen Group Board Member, Frank Witter, ISSN: 2053 776X advised that “cost discipline must be kept inline” amid a “very challenging environment”; BMW’s Harald Kruger noted how “strengthening the core business” whilst moving forward with Registered number: 04242884 “future projects” would be crucial. Meanwhile, Daimler’s Bodo VAT number: GB 815 220 173 Uebber advised that long-term success will only come by focussing on the ability to “reduce cost and strengthen methods to increase efficiency and flexibility throughout the company.” CEO & Managing Director: Hitting quarterly sales targets is tough at the best of times, and Gareth Davies can be impacted by headwinds out of an automaker’s control. Shifting consumer demand and foreign currency fluctuations can soon turn a successful quarter on its head, and at a time Editor : where R&D spend is sky high, it can make for a perfect storm. Freddie Holmes Tesla’s recent struggles illustrate this perfectly. For many, the company is at the forefront of innovation, even proposing the Contributors launch of so-called robotaxis by 2020. However, missed delivery targets and a mounting challenge to attract new orders Betti Hunter have seen Wall Street lose faith: its stock price has halved in Freddie Holmes less than six months. Jack Hunsley Observing the recovery of one of the automotive industry’s Jörn A. Buss most watched names will prove fascinating, but for overly Megan Lampinen optimistic supporters, it is a snap back to reality. Romed Kelp Xavier Boucherat Production: Anmol Mothy Freddie Holmes Editor, M:bility Magazine © Automotive World Ltd 2019 An Automotive World publication 3 That’s right. AAA Members can request our services through simple voice commands using any Amazon Alexa, Google Home or Google Assistant device. At AAA, we’re using advanced technologies to provide an outstanding membership experience. Shaping the future of urban mobility Location intelligence delivers a new approach A leading on-demand service needs operational efficiency and frictionless UX. Location intelligence from HERE helps accelerate developments, build new capabilities and delivers meaningful insights. Discover more at here.com M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 IN THIS ISSUE q3 2019 8 Battery electric vs. fuel cell: truck makers must place their bets 16 Carpooling: where business and environmental needs align 18 Amazon extends voice-centric lifestyle to the car 22 As business models evolve, MaaS moves closer to mainstream 28 Tesla stock slumps as Wall Street bulls see red 34 A ‘quid pro quo’ approach could hold the key to reshaping city mobility 38 Contactless payments keep cities in touch with future mobility demands 42 When it comes to AV progress, miles and disengagements don’t tell the whole story 46 How to solve a problem like the semi-autonomous vehicle? 50 Michigan’s private playgrounds present new avenues for AV testing 58 Find a shared mobility platform that can do it all 62 Auto industry embarks on hunt for mobility experts old and new 6 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 FB CH Michigan’s private playgrounds present new avenues Amazon extends voice-centric lifestyle to the car for AV testing H DH Battery electric vs. fuel cell: truck makers must place their bets DD As business models evolve, MaaS moves Tesla stock slumps as Wall Street bulls see red closer to mainstream GD CG Carpooling: where business and Auto industry embarks on hunt for mobility experts old and new environmental needs align An Automotive World publication 7 M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 y n a p m o C r o t o M a l o k i N © Battery electric vs. fuel cell: truck makers must place their bets It is unsustainable to spread investment across the entire spectrum of alternative powertrains; truck makers must begin to make a choice as to which solution works for them. By Jörn A. Buss and Romed Kelp of global consultancy Oliver Wyman 8 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 hile truck manufacturers Wface many challenges, the most immediate and significant is likely the need to develop an alternative powertrain that will eliminate, or at least significantly reduce, greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. What is much less clear is which technology in particular should substitute internal combustion. The industry may have reached a consensus that the future for passenger cars will be electric—even if the timetable may still be debated—but no such agreement exists on where to go with commercial vehicle powertrains in the mid- and long-term. As a result, even as pressures mount for action, truck makers are more often than not uncertain about how to respond—a reluctance to act they may come to regret. Over the past year, a slew of new a t regulatory hurdles for commercial o y vehicles have been proposed or o T adopted, calling for drastic cuts in © GHG emissions. Among the most notable: in May 2018, the European Commission proposed its first ever carbon-dioxide (CO2) standard for heavy-duty commercial vehicles that would require a 15% reduction from 2019 levels by 2025, and a 30% cut by 2030. California’s Phase It’s time for truck and bus makers 2 GHG regulation is slated to take “ effect in 2020, with longer term to become proactive about reduction targets in 2024 and 2027 for heavy-duty vehicles. Several exploring the wide range of major global cities and a few national governments are also moving to enact future bans on alternative powertrains... They diesel vehicles and, in some cases, all fossil fuel vehicles. need to start placing their bets on Given such trends, it’s time for which is most likely to provide the truck and bus makers to become proactive about exploring the wide range of alternative powertrains best performance and efficiency that are being developed. They need to start placing their bets on over the long run which is most likely to provide the best performance and efficiency over the long run. An Automotive World publication 9 M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 Regulator y: Legislative Pre ssu res In the case of the EU, the ea rlier regulation s pla ced empha sis on NO x and PM level , re cent standards propo sed to curb HD/MD CO 2 emis sion s by 203 0 1 Exe mplary NO x emi ssions HD CO2 standard s in Europe in g pe r liter (Provis iona l Agre ement, Feb 2019 ) 41, 0 De termine referen ce value s for future CO2 28, 0 25, 0 redu ction goa ls - 15% - 30% 18, 0 13, 0 7, 0 0, 9 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 201 9 202 2 202 5 2030 (1990 ) (1993 ) (1996 ) (2001 ) (2006 ) (2009 ) (2013 ) Re view of the targe ts, assess effectiveness HD fuel consumption sin ce 1960 s2 an dpropo se change s in liter Diesel/ 100 km Ob jec ti ve: 60 • Red uction o f CO 2 emissions by 15% u ntil 2025 and up t o 30 % unt il 203 0 in compa rison to 2019 50 St agnati on cau sed by E uro no rms – OEM-specific CO 2 target s tracked vi a to tal fleet consumpt ion, including rig orou s malus pa yme nts in case of vi olat ion an d bonu ssyste ms f or alte rnati ve po wertrains 40 Euro 2 Euro 4 Euro 6 – Man dat ory p ubli cati on of CO 2 emis sio ns from 2019 for all models via VE CTO (Vehicle Energy Con sumpt ion Ca lculat ion Tool) 30 backward simulat ion software Fuel efficiency incre ase d Euro 1 Euro 3 Euro 5 by >30% • Additionally, non-binding sale s targets for 202 5: new truck sales 20 n at zero emiss ion vehicles (less stringent CO2 target) 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 201 0 201 5 2% a m y No lim itations to fuel consumption No lim itations to fuel consumption W r and CO2 within Euro norms and CO2 within Euro norms e v i 1.Comm on Volvo eng in es as mea sured and pub lished by Volvo Tru cks; 2. I nclu din g c ivil tran spo rt l O Sou rce: European Comm issio n, Eurost at, la st au to omnib us, eu rotran spo rt.
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