M:bility | Magazine Q  An Automotive World publication Is Tesla in crisis? Fires, crashes and missed deliveries anger the Wall Street bulls

Also inside How can CASE revolutionise cities? Amazon: the car of the future will talk back Motor City vs. Silicon Valley: who wins the talent war? Automotive World est. 1992

Informing the decisions of automotive industry stakeholders since 1992.

https://automotiveworld.com M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

Published in June 2019 by : Welcome... Automotive World est. 1992

…to the Q3 2019 issue of M:bility magazine. Automotive World

‘Mobility’ is the buzzword of 2019, but while the term can be 1-3 Washington Buildings easily crowbarred into a press release, turning statements of Stanwell Road, Penarth, intent into reality requires a bit more finesse. CF64 2AD, UK

Today’s marketing ploys would suggest that the business of making cars has been turned on its head as investment is www.automotiveworld.com funnelled into connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE) technologies. But while manufacturers look to the T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 future, it has become clear that the core principles of running a [email protected] business must remain intact.

In May, Volkswagen Group Board Member, Frank Witter, ISSN: 2053 776X advised that “cost discipline must be kept inline” amid a “very challenging environment”; BMW’s Harald Kruger noted how “strengthening the core business” whilst moving forward with Registered number: 04242884 “future projects” would be crucial. Meanwhile, Daimler’s Bodo VAT number: GB 815 220 173 Uebber advised that long-term success will only come by focussing on the ability to “reduce cost and strengthen methods to increase efficiency and flexibility throughout the company.” CEO & Managing Director: Hitting quarterly sales targets is tough at the best of times, and Gareth Davies can be impacted by headwinds out of an automaker’s control. Shifting consumer demand and foreign currency fluctuations can soon turn a successful quarter on its head, and at a time Editor : where R&D spend is sky high, it can make for a perfect storm. Freddie Holmes

Tesla’s recent struggles illustrate this perfectly. For many, the company is at the forefront of innovation, even proposing the Contributors launch of so-called robotaxis by 2020. However, missed delivery targets and a mounting challenge to attract new orders Betti Hunter have seen Wall Street lose faith: its stock price has halved in Freddie Holmes less than six months. Jack Hunsley Observing the recovery of one of the automotive industry’s Jörn A. Buss most watched names will prove fascinating, but for overly Megan Lampinen optimistic supporters, it is a snap back to reality. Romed Kelp Xavier Boucherat

Production: Anmol Mothy

Freddie Holmes Editor, M:bility Magazine © Automotive World Ltd 2019

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Discover more at here.com M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 IN THIS ISSUE q3 2019

8 Battery electric vs. fuel cell: truck makers must place their bets

16 Carpooling: where business and environmental needs align

18 Amazon extends voice-centric lifestyle to the car

22 As business models evolve, MaaS moves closer to mainstream

28 Tesla stock slumps as Wall Street bulls see red

34 A ‘quid pro quo’ approach could hold the key to reshaping city mobility

38 Contactless payments keep cities in touch with future mobility demands

42 When it comes to AV progress, miles and disengagements don’t tell the whole story

46 How to solve a problem like the semi-autonomous vehicle?

50 Michigan’s private playgrounds present new avenues for AV testing

58 Find a shared mobility platform that can do it all

62 Auto industry embarks on hunt for mobility experts old and new

6 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

FB CH

Michigan’s private playgrounds present new avenues Amazon extends voice-centric lifestyle to the car for AV testing H DH

Battery electric vs. fuel cell: truck makers must place their bets DD

As business models evolve, MaaS moves Tesla stock slumps as Wall Street bulls see red closer to mainstream GD CG

Carpooling: where business and Auto industry embarks on hunt for mobility experts old and new environmental needs align

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a l o k i N

© Battery electric vs. fuel cell: truck makers must place their bets

It is unsustainable to spread investment across the entire spectrum of alternative powertrains; truck makers must begin to make a choice as to which solution works for them. By Jörn A. Buss and Romed Kelp of global consultancy Oliver Wyman

8 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

hile truck manufacturers Wface many challenges, the most immediate and significant is likely the need to develop an alternative powertrain that will eliminate, or at least significantly reduce, greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions.

What is much less clear is which technology in particular should substitute internal combustion. The industry may have reached a consensus that the future for passenger cars will be electric—even if the timetable may still be debated—but no such agreement exists on where to go with commercial vehicle powertrains in the mid- and long-term. As a result, even as pressures mount for action, truck makers are more often than not uncertain about how to respond—a reluctance to act they may come to regret.

Over the past year, a slew of new a t

regulatory hurdles for commercial o y vehicles have been proposed or o T

adopted, calling for drastic cuts in © GHG emissions. Among the most notable: in May 2018, the European Commission proposed its first ever carbon-dioxide (CO2) standard for heavy-duty commercial vehicles that would require a 15% reduction from 2019 levels by 2025, and a 30% cut by 2030. California’s Phase It’s time for truck and bus makers 2 GHG regulation is slated to take “ effect in 2020, with longer term to become proactive about reduction targets in 2024 and 2027 for heavy-duty vehicles. Several exploring the wide range of major global cities and a few national governments are also moving to enact future bans on alternative powertrains... They diesel vehicles and, in some cases, all fossil fuel vehicles. need to start placing their bets on

Given such trends, it’s time for which is most likely to provide the truck and bus makers to become proactive about exploring the wide range of alternative powertrains best performance and efficiency that are being developed. They need to start placing their bets on over the long run which is most likely to provide the best performance and efficiency over the long run.

An Automotive World publication 9 M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

Regulator y: Legislative Pre ssu res

In the case of the EU, the ea rlier regulation s pla ced empha sis on NO x and PM level , re cent standards propo sed to curb HD/MD CO 2 emis sion s by 203 0

1 Exe mplary NO x emi ssions HD CO2 standard s in Europe in g pe r liter (Provis iona l Agre ement, Feb 2019 )

41, 0 De termine referen ce value s for future CO2 28, 0 25, 0 redu ction goa ls - 15% - 30% 18, 0 13, 0 7, 0 0, 9 Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 201 9 202 2 202 5 2030 (1990 ) (1993 ) (1996 ) (2001 ) (2006 ) (2009 ) (2013 ) Re view of the targe ts, assess effectiveness HD fuel consumption sin ce 1960 s2 an dpropo se change s in liter Diesel/ 100 km Ob jec ti ve:

60 • Red uction o f CO 2 emissions by 15% u ntil 2025 and up t o 30 % unt il 203 0 in compa rison to 2019

50 St agnati on cau sed by E uro no rms – OEM-specific CO 2 target s tracked vi a to tal fleet consumpt ion, including rig orou s malus pa yme nts in case of vi olat ion an d bonu ssyste ms f or alte rnati ve po wertrains 40 Euro 2 Euro 4 Euro 6 – Man dat ory p ubli cati on of CO 2 emis sio ns from 2019 for all models via VE CTO (Vehicle Energy Con sumpt ion Ca lculat ion Tool) 30 backward simulat ion software Fuel efficiency incre ase d Euro 1 Euro 3 Euro 5 by >30% • Additionally, non-binding sale s targets for 202 5: new truck sales

20 n at zero emiss ion vehicles (less stringent CO2 target) 196 5 197 0 197 5 198 0 198 5 199 0 199 5 200 0 200 5 201 0 201 5 2% a m y

No lim itations to fuel consumption No lim itations to fuel consumption W

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and CO2 within Euro norms and CO2 within Euro norms e v i 1.Comm on Volvo eng in es as mea sured and pub lished by Volvo Tru cks; 2. I nclu din g c ivil tran spo rt l O Sou rce: European Comm issio n, Eurost at, la st au to omnib us, eu rotran spo rt. de , Volvo, Ol iver Wyman ana lysis ©

A diverse array of • battery electric vehicles (BEVs), capacity high. While fuel cell- • fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) powered trucks offer longer emissions- ranges, the current outlook on Each of these has respective their total cost of ownership reduction strategies advantages, drawbacks and (TCO), as well as substantial variations that historically lean infrastructure requirements, make Today any diesel truck emits powertrain R&D teams will have to them a less attractive option. carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen deal with. Still, they represent the oxide (NOx), and particulate most promising mid- and long- For the interim period, CNG and matter. To cut emissions to levels term propulsion technologies. LNG gas-powered trucks appear that adhere to standards required Most manufacturers do not have easier to implement but are limited by European cities, incremental the bandwidth or expertise to by fuel infrastructure and the development of next generation cover all three options effectively inability to comprehensively solve advanced (bio) diesel hybrid while still supporting diesel CO2 concerns—unless we talk about engines becomes expensive and engines, and as such, will have to Biogas. At least they address part of ultimately ineffective. In the end, eventually make a bet. the emissions question around even these non-plugin hybrids are NOx and particulate matter. only capable of reducing emissions Given the current state of the by an estimated 20% under the technologies, long-term zero most optimistic scenarios. emission freight hauling can only Varied uptake be achieved via battery and For this reason, we see only three possibly hydrogen FCEVs. Not Because there are no common alternative solutions manufacturers surprisingly, nearly all global truck standards on emissions across need to consider in order to meet OEMs have announced battery- geographies, truck manufacturers the latest standards on emissions electric model launches despite will be forced to take a region- and prepare for a future of even high battery cost and weight specific approach to the problem, stricter rules. They are: concerns. The hope is that which will result in higher costs and dynamic wireless charging, less effective products. Given the • compressed or liquified natural currently being tested, will help current landscape of regulations, gas-powered vehicles (CNG/LNG) keep battery weight low and load infrastructure development, usage

10 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 r e l m i a D

©

Batteries are the biggest cost drivers in electric “vehicles and, given current technology, they add significant weight to the vehicle, adversely affecting the loading capacity of the truck and its TCO

profiles, and manufacturers’ LNG trucks in the long-haul • in China: a strong push directly strategies, it is reasonable to expect segment beside a long-haul to eTrucks and fuel cell the following regional scenarios to diesel reliance technology for all forms of develop as truck makers wait for trucking, building on the battery advances and/or a less • in the US: a slow adoption of already successful eBus expensive solution to hydrogen fuel CNG and LNG solutions and development cell infrastructure: some eTruck pilots by larger fleets, but outside of California The investment in a multitude of • in Europe: a significant an ongoing reliance on diesel interim and long-term alternative adoption of CNG and eTrucks trucks for both short and technologies will require for urban distribution and more long haul significant capital expenditure and

An Automotive World publication 11 M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

Co mpetitors – OEM acti vities Indu str y player s aroun d the glob e are proa cti vely experimenting with mult iple solutions conside ring the infra stru cture situation

In frastruct ure In frastruct ure In frastruct ure Examples Degree of Solu tion (no. of sta tions) avai labili ty develo pme nt costs (Europe and over seas) co mmer cia lis ation CNG Tod ay: 3. 3k sta tions IVECO MB MAN Fr eight liner or in Europe Pr op ane Plan 2 025: 6k sta tions LNG Tod ay: ~100 sta tions Vo lvo Sca nia IVECO (Liquefied in Europe Nat ural Gas) Plan 2 025: ~40 0 station s Only pilot te sting Ind uct ive Overhead eHig hway Cat enary Po werrail Ch argi ng Ch argi ng stret ches cur rently; some city/b us solut ions Fu ll Ele ctric Ver y li mite d d edicat ed (b at tery) charging sta tions MB MAN BYD Tesla Fr eight liner cur rently for MHD Ts Re feren ce ~70 Tesla Supe r C harge rs in Ger many

Fu el Cell Tod ay: ~100 H 2 Toyota Esoro Ni kola Ele ctric sta tions in Europe Plan 2 025: ~800 sta tions n

Legend: a m

Infrastructu re availabi lit y Infrastructu re Develop ment Costs Degree of com merciali zation y

No significan t infrast ruct ure Estab li shed infrast ructure No add itiona l costs Ve ry high add itiona l cost s In R&D/t esting pha se Availa ble to c ustomers W

r e v i Howev er, not all solut ions read y fo r imp lem entat ion an d ma ss-ma rket adop tion l O

Sou rce: I CC T, NGV A, EA FO , Hydrogen Coun cil, Compan y web sites, Press Resea rch, Oliver Wyma n ana lyses ©

skill, and it is likely to diminish a ‘powertrain pack modularisation With eTrucks, where the principal the competitive advantages strategy’ with a flexible chassis component is the battery, sales of of some manufacturers and structure to accept various powertrain-related spare parts will disrupt downstream revenue. powertrain solutions over time. begin to dry up and a major source Consequently, OEMs need to be This approach will help minimise of today’s aftersales revenue and proactive in adapting their costs and allow truck makers to profits will go with them. What’s business models and rethinking remain flexible in order to address more, battery manufacturers may technology investments, aftersales, changing needs. opt to sell directly to truck owners and remarketing in relation to the in the aftermarket, eliminating technology that is selected. Strategic decisions will need to be that source of aftersales revenue as made on whether to build well. While a CNG/LNG solution innovation leadership in specific will prolong truck makers’ ability Four elements to fields, be a fast follower, or hedge to generate spare parts revenue, it investments and whether to buy is an interim solution at best, given success technology from the outside. A key the emissions problems with enabler of success will be forging natural gas. In the end, a Manufacturers can proactively partnerships with diverse temporary solution is likely to address these issues in four ways stakeholders. In addition, lobbying create complexity and stranded that will handle potential political decision makers regionally assets in the supply chain. challenges spanning the entire and in key global markets for truck lifecycle. common emission rules would also In order to be future-ready, OEMs be advisable to reduce the need to develop new sources of First, rigorous technology complexity and cost of investments. downstream revenue, such as investment prioritisation—that advanced connectivity features, takes into account customer Secondly, OEMs need new sources over-the-air updates, uptime acceptance and the need to of downstream revenue once offers, and mobility packages built remain differentiated—will help eTrucks become mainstream. around risk-based pricing and OEMs manage R&D effectively. Today, conventional powertrains truck-as-a-service offers to balance This will not just focus on the contribute significantly to the erosion in spare parts sales. powertrain, but ideally will involve aftersales and bottom-line profits. Efforts to control the battery

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Where the principal component is the battery, “sales of powertrain-related spare parts will begin to dry up and a major source of today’s aftersales revenue and profits will go with them

replacement market are a given, vehicle architecture and modular solution, remarketing will be even if the promise of controlling lifecycle concepts including limited to markets where this business would be difficult for retrofitting and strategies for technology, emission standards, OEMs, and likely come with low revitalising each unique truck and infrastructure are supportive. profit margins. technology. For example, used trucks from Europe historically Ultimately, this will hinder used- The third consideration is around find a second and third life in vehicle sales abroad and limit successful remarketing. The used- Eastern Europe, the Middle East, residual values. These exports truck business will require a and Africa. With fragmented have already seen a decline rethink, particularly around markets for each alternative because of existing technology

An Automotive World publication 13 M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

Overview of app roa ch levers We see 4 prin cipal lever s whic h OEMs mu st focu s on

s Business and profit mod els to b e New sources of revenue in Afte rsa les s s l e

e fund ame nta lly renewed

n • Comple te overhaul of aft er sal es off erin gs, d i o s • Move away fro m pure v ehi cle sale adapted to the ne w reali ty u M B an dsome af ter sales to of fering holistic • Ali gne d pr oduc ts an d ser vices

operato r model s and tran sport solu tions A f t e r s a l e s

n In te rms of po wertrains, a rigo rou s Ret hink Rema rket ing o i t investme nt and po rtf oli o process within a • Defining extended li fecycle con cep ts: v future tec hno log ies is required o op tion s for re tro fitt ing and rene wal n

n • I Balanced in vestmen t in line con cep ts for ba tterie s, soft ware R

with technol ogy trends and ele ctroni cs e m n • If ne cessary, in fra structure must • Remar ketin g chain s are to be adapted a a r k m

be activel y s haped dyna micall y with regard to techni cal e y t i W

pos sibiliti es: Truc ks will be mad e n

• r

Stay agile throug h ecosystems g e

signi ficantly more modular in the future v i l O

Sou rce: Oliver Wyman ©

gaps and the flood of out-of-date opportunities, while considering fundamentally overhaul their EURO 5 vehicles after their ‘ban’ the expectations and needs of business models, recasting and in Europe. Rapid adoption of second- and third-life markets. reconfiguring themselves as eTrucks will further aggravate providers of integrated transport these pressures. As such, The final strategic necessity is to solutions. In the past, remarketing chains must be develop new sources of conventional powertrain adapted to local technology differentiation. OEMs must performance, based on power and fuel efficiency combined with reliability and truck load capacity, has been a key source of competitive advantage and differentiation, as well as a core driver of TCO.

Until now, truck makers have If their business models are had full control over the “ powertrain, including strong ties strategically repositioned, the to the short list of truck transmission manufacturers. A world’s major truck makers will switch to eTrucks carries a significant risk of losing that control, with performance and be able to capture a fair share of load capacity mainly driven by the battery. Batteries are the future profit pools that arise biggest cost drivers in electric vehicles and, given current from zero-emissions trucking technology, they add significant weight to the vehicle, adversely affecting the loading capacity of the truck and its TCO.

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The shift to alternative powertrain technologies will “not happen overnight. However, manufacturers must act now

With the battery manufacturing commoditisation and associated must act now, not only to deal with space being dominated by Asian price pressures. This will require a the associated technical and companies—holding over 90% of shift in focus from truck sales and commercial challenges, but also to battery production capacity individual aspects of business to proactively turn the disruption into (excluding Tesla)—OEMs can integrated service offerings and opportunity. If their business models expect to have little control over new mobility solutions. are strategically repositioned, the this core differentiator. As such, world’s major truck makers will be individual OEMs must seek The shift to alternative powertrain able to capture a fair share of future alternatives early on to mitigate technologies will not happen profit pools that arise from zero- that loss, further product overnight. However, manufacturers emissions trucking.

An Automotive World publication 15 M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 r a C a l B a l B

©

Carpooling: where business and environmental needs align

BlaBlaCar's Chief Executive speaks to Megan Lampinen about tackling environmental concerns through shared journeys

16 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

rom electrification to Fhydrogen fuel cells, the automotive industry is investing heavily in a range of technologies to reduce emissions and address air quality concerns. But there’s more than one way to go about cleaning up its footprint. A number of players are focussing not on the vehicles themselves but on the way in which individuals use their vehicles.

Interest in shared mobility schemes has been growing rapidly over the years, providing an alternative to private ownership and public transport. Users of car-sharing, r ride-hailing and carpooling are a C a often attracted by the schemes’ l B a affordability and convenience, but l B

there’s an environmental bonus as © well. Most people recognise that any time you put more people into one vehicle, it cuts overall emissions. But by how much? Building up the Intuitively we always knew numbers “putting more people in cars had That depends on several factors, to be good, but we never put including how many people use shared mobility. BlaBlaCar has watched this segment closely over some real numbers behind that the past 15 years. Last year, as its carpooling community topped 70 million people across 22 countries, it decided to investigate just how big specifically targeting shorter recent study showed that in the city an environmental impact it is journeys like the daily commute. of Paris, the length of the average making. “We thought it would be “The Holy Grail of carpooling is car commute has tripled over the great to validate something we really around commuting,” said past 40 years. If every car could never have before,” Nicolas Brusson. “That’s where the biggest double the number of passengers, Brusson, BlaBlaCar’s Chief problems are in terms of traffic, CO2 the region could halve its emissions. Executive and co-founder, told emissions and people driving alone.” M:bility . “Intuitively we always knew putting more people in cars In the company’s home market of The CO2 findings had to be good, but we never put France, 13.5 million people drive to some real numbers behind that.” and from work every day, but the Today, cars are responsible for average car occupancy on these around 12% of total European Union BlaBlaCar brokers long-distance trips is just 1.08 persons. The (EU) CO2 emissions. “The car is one carpooling. Drivers offer a seat in number of carpooling users remains of the biggest levers we have in their car, typically when they travel relatively small, but the long-term terms of reducing CO2 emissions between cities. The average journey potential could be big. Commuting from transport,” said Brusson. “At ranges from 200 to 300 kilometres. lengths are increasing as more the end of the day, we can crack this In 2017 it added the BlaBlaLines app, individuals move to the suburbs. A by making the car more sharable.”

An Automotive World publication 17 M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

The Holy Grail of carpooling “is really around commuting. That’s where the biggest problems are in terms of traffic, CO2 emissions and people driving alone

In order to pinpoint exactly how studies, this one uncovered both their fleet average CO2 by 40% much CO2 is saved each year by pros and cons from the rise of the compared to 2007 levels. While its carpooling community, carpooling scheme. On the plus the regulatory environment BlaBlaCar teamed up with the side, most users would have has focussed on vehicle research consultancy Le BIPE. taken their own car for a specific emissions, it has largely The partners analysed real usage journey if they didn’t share on overlooked vehicle use. data from 6,884 BlaBlaCar BlaBlaCar. However, some may members across eight countries not have travelled at all. One “The key will be to create a over 12 months. For 2018, they concern is that making low-cost regulatory environment that found that the carpooling travel more freely available will promotes shared mobility, community saved 1.6 million create more demand, and hence whether that is through tax relief tonnes of CO2. That’s equivalent encourage more car journeys. or carpool lanes,” Brusson to the amount of CO2 absorbed in “The truth is, we also have some suggested. “There are many ideas a year by a forest the size of negative impacts,” conceded around this but they are not very 5,000 football pitches or six Brusson. “These are well offset by well coordinated. We have had months of traffic in Berlin. the positive one, which is people discussions in France but it varies not travelling in their own car.” country by country, sometimes And this is just the beginning. even region by region.” The savings will grow in line with shared mobility. By 2023, Regulatory Some regulatory approaches BlaBlaCar estimates that its users towards emissions have could be saving 6.4 million environment provoked heated protests. In tonnes of CO2 every year. Paris, the ‘gilets jaunes’ EU regulators are well aware of movement has been particularly “One of the drivers for us to do the impact transport emissions active in protesting the steep rise the study was to really have on global warming and in diesel taxes. Blanket punitive understand the different levers at air quality, and have laid out regulations like this may not be work and have a genuine CO2 tough targets for light vehicles in the most effective means of study on the network,” explained the years ahead. For example, by encouraging multiple occupancy. Brusson. Like most objective 2021 automakers need to reduce “Doing it this way will not result

18 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

in a solution any time soon,” said The team is also exploring ways concerns about the environment,” Brusson. “You will only provoke to incentivise electric vehicle said Brusson. “But people are a very adverse reaction from usage, though Brusson cautions starting to recognise that side of people who rely on their car. that the model for this may the equation. A few years ago, Look what happened when they prove more complex: “In this the focus groups would barely wanted to increase diesel prices— area, I think we’re more in the mention the environment. They you get a revolution. On the flip territory of communication and would highlight how the scheme side, how about giving an education than in a specific is good economically and its incentive to share?” economic reward.” convenience. Now a few are

“The truth is, we also have some negative impacts. These are well offset by the positive one, which is people not travelling in their own car

Brusson is hopeful that Europe For this year, the company is starting to say how it’s also great will emerge at the forefront of looking specifically at integrated for the environment.” carpooling. To start with, interest mobility and combining a in shared mobility on the marketplace of buses with a Ironically, that heightened Continent has been strong. At marketplace of cars. “We want to awareness may stem in part from the same time, it represents a bring in buses, which to some the shift away from environmental more compact region, making it extent also represent shared road awareness in the US. “The issue is easier to match commuters than travel,” he pointed out. “It’s in the news more frequently now, in a vast market like the US. BlaBlaCar and BlaBlaBus.” and it’s more polarised. In the US “Europe should lead the you have Donald Trump saying he change,” he urged. does not believe in global Environmental warming. But to some extent the fact that it is more polarised today Future iterations awareness is good from a consumer education standpoint, because it’s BlaBlaCar is looking to incorporate Awareness levels around the talked about.” more environmental aspects into environmental implications for its service, such as a loyalty shared mobility may be low at People in the carpooling programme offering discounts the moment but they are community are reacting to such based on usage levels. “It is almost growing. It’s a topic that arises reports on social media, ‘liking’ like the business needs are aligned frequently at the French and and sharing comments more with the environmental needs to German focus groups conducted regularly on the topic than ever some extent,” he noted. “The more by BlaBlaCar. “It is not exactly a before. “People are more drivers share, the better it is for us trigger for carpooling—very few sensitive to this than they were, as a growing business and the people would say I joined and especially those who share better it is for the environment.” BlaBlaCar because of my their car,” he added.

An Automotive World publication 19 M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 n o z a m A

© Amazon extends voice-centric lifestyle to the car

While Alexa may have first found her place in the home, Amazon’s familiar digital assistant is now getting settled in the car as well. By Freddie Holmes

20 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019

he industry has few steps left technologies; in 2018, J.D. Power “Our Echo family of devices were Tto take in its quest for a fully found it to be the leading source of built for the home with the digital cockpit. Where there were complaints for the sixth year assumption there is high quality once buttons and dials now lie running. But while the technology Wi-Fi-based connectivity, and a screens and gesture recognition. has widely failed to hit the mark so not so hostile acoustic Voice control has long been the far, a recent study found that this environment,” said Scumniotales. toughest of nuts to crack, but the may be due to the fact that, “When we first started building lag and inaccuracy associated with accuracy aside, drivers crave our offerings for the vehicle, we early systems has largely been familiarity. Recent findings from had to work with the fact that, resigned to distant memory. Many the market research firm found even in an urban environment, the automakers are now turning to the that three-quarters of those car can lose connectivity, such as likes of Amazon, Apple, Google surveyed want the same brand of in a parking garage or a tunnel.” and Microsoft for a masterclass in voice service they use at home Then there is the troublesome natural language understanding, within their next car. acoustic environment, with and whilst it’s still not perfect, the background noise coming from technology has come a long way. “We’ve heard directly from our air-conditioning or an open customers that they want access to sunroof. Meanwhile, society It is a trend that has been borne out the same services Alexa brings remains in a golden age for of both a collective push from the them in the home when they’re in distracted driving. industry and a subsequent pull the vehicle,” notes Scumniotales. from consumers; as the technology It is something that many “We have had to look at where it becomes more readily available— automakers have accepted, with is appropriate to use Alexa in the and capable—it is not only the early Alexa now available in a growing vehicle,” continued Scumniotales. adopters that want a piece, but the number of new models. “There’s “We had to contextualise some of mass market. John Scumniotales is no doubt that customers prefer to the existing Alexa experiences; it Director and Head of Product at use a voice assistant they are is probably best that a driver does Alexa Auto, and has overseen familiar with.” not receive video calls whilst Amazon’s move into the driving, for example. We limit automotive space for the last three some of those capabilities to years. The focus, he says, has From home to car ensure we provide the always been on bringing the Alexa appropriate functionality with experience—much loved by those As the branding would suggest, regard to driver distraction.” who have already welcomed her Alexa Auto has been tailored for into their homes via Echo and Dot the cockpit as opposed to sitting at Alexa Auto enables drivers to devices—into the car. home. It has not been a make traditional hands-free calls— straightforward task, with various just ask her to call a friend from It is interesting given that voice tweaks required to meet the the contacts list in your tethered control is consistently one of the challenging and safety critical smartphone. Then there are local most problematic in-vehicle environment of a vehicle. search and navigation services,

Many automakers are now turning to the likes of “Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft for a masterclass in natural language understanding

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and the ability to interact with other connected devices at home. On paper, this is not particularly ground breaking. The key differentiator is that drivers no longer need to memorise specific vocabulary and grammar. The idea is that drivers can interact with the vehicle just as they would with another human.

“It is a simple and appropriate interface,” said Scumniotales. “We believe that voice is the next way in which While on the tech giant az people will interact with their m A environment, but we don’t believe is not at liberty to © it is exclusive. There are tactile divulge its position just yet, it is controls in the vehicle that drivers, likely that digital assistants such as passengers and customers will Alexa will become a key interface issue of grubby controls. “We think continue to depend on, but while for autonomous vehicles. Consider Alexa can play a great role in that we think it will be a voice first how a train or bus provides updates future,” noted Scumniotales, environment, it is not voice along the way and upon arrival, or “where the vehicle becomes even exclusive.” how an elevator offers instruction more of an extension of the home.” upon entry and exit. Only this time, riders should be able to hold a Another element of interest is What’s the link to seamless conversation. home-to-vehicle connectivity. Many vehicle features today can be mobility? While current autonomous accessed via a smartphone, be it prototypes such as Waymo’s do defrosting the windscreen, pre- Amazon may not have the most feature a stop-go button, voice setting the air conditioning before obvious ties to mobility, but the interface looks likely to become the a journey or to check on an company is closely involved in one norm for driverless vehicles in electric vehicle’s state of charge. of the most significant changes future. It removes the question of Conversely, Alexa could be used taking place in the automotive where to place buttons in a shared on the journey home to ensure human-machine interface (HMI). cabin, as well as eliminating the that the central heating and lights

We think Alexa can play a great role in that future “where the vehicle becomes even more of an extension of the home

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are turned on, and as the car pulls Echo and Alexa devices, under the cloud and the vehicle,” said into the drive, that the garage is banner of ‘smart car meets smart Scumniotales. “We take that unlocked and ready to open. Alexa home.’ Drivers would be able to issue very seriously. It is could even play a welcome home control Internet-enabled devices, paramount in how we design song of choice. such as lights, home security these solutions.” systems, TVs and garage doors, “If I leave my home in the morning, directly from the car. The I could say ‘Alexa, let’s go.’ This automaker doubled down the Listen up would precondition my vehicle, following year, stating that owners potentially load traffic information of Ford plug-in electric vehicles There has also been concern with and prepare everything for the such as the Focus Electric could regards to how voice data is journey I’m about to embark on,” start/stop the engine and stored, used and shared by said Scumniotales. lock/unlock the vehicle’s doors digital assistants on the whole.

Users can see all of their interactions with Alexa “and choose to delete any they wish. We are very transparent and allow the customer to be in control of that experience

through Alexa. Many brands Many consumers are not keen on Cyber security including Volvo, Nissan and BMW the idea of companies ‘listening now enable similar capabilities in’ to private conversations— However, this does raise the across various models. Amazon’s recent statement that subject of cyber security. Any an in-house team is assigned to device that is connected to the “At the beginning of the decade review certain Alexa Internet is at risk of remote there were about six systems conversations to hone the hacking, and that puts Alexa, the communicating with the technology was not well car, and any devices with which it headunit, and now there are received. Apple and Google have can connect, at risk. 2,000,” noted Harman’s then similar initiatives tied in to their Vice President of Technology privacy policies for Siri and The ability to manipulate devices Strategy, Alon Atsmon, back in Google Home respectively. within the home via an in-vehicle 2016. “The more connectivity digital assistant may seem you have, the more challenges Generally speaking, Alexa is farfetched, but there have there are.” only listening out for the certainly been more obscure cyber 'awake word'—her name—and security breaches. In 2013, US Amazon is very much aware of Scumniotales is keen to highlight retailer Target was hacked via its the trend and its implications. that customers are always in heating, ventilation and air “When it comes to privacy and control. “Users can see all of conditioning (HVAC) contractor, security, we’re looking at that their interactions with Alexa and and in 2017, a casino was hacked very closely. The Alexa choose to delete any they wish,” via a thermometer in a connected experience in itself requires an he concluded. “We are very fish tank. encrypted, trusted connection— transparent and allow the the same is true in terms of how customer to be in control of that At the 2016 CES, Ford announced we interact with smart home experience. Privacy is a number it would integrate its SYNC voice devices, the connection between one tenet for us as we build out command system with Amazon’s the home and the cloud, and the these solutions.”

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© As business models evolve, MaaS moves closer to mainstream

Platform providers debate what it will take for Mobility as a Service to become the new normal. By Megan Lampinen

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ransport options have never Tbeen so plentiful, or so convenient. Whether someone needs a van to move furniture over the weekend, a scooter to reach the train station or simply a ride home from a restaurant, there’s a service out there catering just for them. The emerging Mobility as a MaaS schemes offer a Service (MaaS) industry has attracted both newcomers and “tremendous opportunity for industry incumbents, each with their own priorities. collecting and monetising For traditional vehicle manufacturers, operating in this data. Shared vehicles tend space offers a way of advertising their vehicles, and selling them. to spend much more time New revenue streams like this could become increasingly important as on the road, therefore ideas on ownership evolve: suddenly, not everyone aspires to own a car. At the same time, MaaS providing more information schemes offer a tremendous opportunity for collecting and about specific locations and monetising data. Shared vehicles tend to spend much more time on use patterns the road, therefore providing more information about specific locations and use patterns.

However, this trend does raise This could mean a change in model emerged, allowing for the concerns for established automotive roles for some industry players, user to drop off the vehicle in a manufacturers, particularly in terms as well as new partnerships. different location if they wanted of brand loyalty. “We have found “Companies need to decide what to. “With one-way trips, the that mobility users are less attached their future role will be,” Al- disadvantage is that you can’t to automaker brands,” commented Bodour said. “Will they just reserve the car,” said Mark Mo Al-Bodour, Senior Connected manufacture and sell cars? Will Thomas, Vice President of Car Specialist at automotive they enable mobility platforms or Marketing at Ridecell, a company technology consultants SBD sell the mobility services and be that provides fleet platforms for Automotive. Chairing a panel customer facing? A decision has new mobility services. “However, debate among service platform to be made.” if the provider has a critical mass providers at this year’s M:bility | of vehicles that free float within a Detroit, a two-day event hosted city, users can simply look to see by Automotive World , Al-Bodour Business model what car is available and reserve shared some insights from SBD’s it for the time it will take them to own research. Respondents in evolution walk there and pick it up.” general showed overall indifference when asked if MaaS is closely associated with Understanding the specifics they were more or less likely to multi-modal journeys, but even of a given city is pivotal. “Every use a shared mobility service within the car-share segment city is different,” observed depending on the brand of alone there are various business Johannes Gruenenberg, Business vehicles. “People don’t care models in play. The original Development Manager at about the brand when they are model pioneered by Zipcar INVERS, a MaaS operating system looking at convenience, or saving required users to pick up a car provider. “You can’t just cut and money, or just getting from point from a set location and later paste your business model like a A to B,” he clarified. return it there. Then the one-way McDonalds restaurant.”

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When Ridecell is working with a those vehicles itself,” observed miles they cover. “These are all client on a specific city, they often Thomas. “It would be a completely important aspects for the MaaS look to pinpoint the ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ different game. Companies provider because it helps them zones for usage and then deploy a entering the car-share segment determine if they can increase predictive model harnessing generally own their own fleets, their membership,” said artificial intelligence (AI). “Every which means they have to get as Gruenenberg. “Zipcar has said that vehicle on the customer’s network much use out of them as possible.” it is interested in people selling has an estimated time before it will their second or even their first car be rented again. This AI model Each business model has a peak and instead relying entirely on allows for some pretty cool demand and utilisation curve. MaaS services.” applications,” Thomas explained. With typical car-share, demand is For instance, if it predicts that a highest during the day, when Software as a Service (SaaS) vehicle in a ‘cold’ location will not people can easily find parking. specialist Vulog recently be rented for a day, the provider During the morning commute and examined member behaviour can pay to have someone move in the evening, when users may be within mature markets, which for that vehicle to a ‘hot’ zone going out for dinner, they tend to MaaS simply means there’s been downtown where it will very likely prefer ride-hailing. The savvy a service in place for two years. It be rented within 20 minutes. operator will put two and two found that in the last year alone, “Local knowledge is important to together and repurpose his car- free-floating vehicles have seen allow companies to effectively run share vehicles for ride-hailing an 11% increase in trip length. a service,” he added. during certain times. “Trips are trending upwards, meaning many people are using BMW has done just that through its these cars for a range of different Making the most ReachNow service. “BMW is one of purposes, not just for going from our customers,” observed Thomas. point A to B for work but also for of it “It has taken its fleet of vehicles and weekend trips,” clarified Alex hired chauffeurs so that customers Thibault, Vice President and Creative and flexible approaches can use the app to request a car or General Manager, North America, like this may be needed to secure a a ride. This is just one way to get Vulog. “People are really relying profit, which is no easy feat. Uber, the most use out of a fleet.” on these cars.” which doesn’t even have to invest in buying cars, still manages to Utilisation is not just about vehicle Infrastructure, however, could rake in hefty losses every quarter. occupation but also how long the make or break it. “Shared mobility “Imagine if Uber had to buy all vehicles are used and how many operators attract more customers if infrastructure exists,” Gruenenberg stated. “Whatever the distance I need to travel, I will choose the specific service that meets my needs.” The average journey distance for shared scooters in Detroit, for example, is 1.5 miles. Bike-share averages The savvy operator will put between one and five miles. Moped sharing journeys in Europe “ average four miles. Uber is two and two together and generally used for longer trips, and somewhere in between there repurpose his car-share is public transit.

vehicles for ride-hailing during If the services and the infrastructure are in place, then residents are more likely to certain times conclude they don’t need to own their own car. “At that stage, we can have the big discussions about a pure MaaS environment,” said Gruenenberg.

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If autonomous ride-hailing services take off as they “are expected to, it will change the composition of who is buying. That buying power will change the dynamics of the automotive world

car2go a few years ago, which found drop in volumes and more about a Who is buying? that each shared vehicle removes change in who is buying. “In the nine to 12 vehicles from the road. In future, it is the mobility service Recent statistics suggest this is the Canada, the city of Vancouver has providers that will be buying the direction in which the market is seen a big impact from the Evo car- cars, particularly as the industry gradually heading. Car2go has share service, which has grown moves towards autonomous historically claimed that 10% of its dramatically. In 2017, Evo operated vehicles (AVs),” said Thibault. He users are thinking about selling 750 free-float cars in the city. Today expects that sometime between their car or have sold their car it operates 1,300. Thibault pointed 2025 and 2030, the majority of cars already. “There is definitely a shift to a recent study in which 15% of in North America’s cities will be where people are getting rid of Evo users said they would consider sold to mobility services and not to their cars and moving to MaaS,” selling their cars because of the private owners. “If autonomous Gruenenberg added. service’s dependability. ride-hailing services take off as they are expected to, it will change the The University of California, While private ownership may composition of who is buying,” he Berkeley Transportation decline, shared mobility fleets will added. “That buying power will Sustainability Research Center still need to purchase vehicles. For change the dynamics of the (TSRC) conducted a study with automakers, this is less about a automotive world.”

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© Tesla stock slumps as Wall Street bulls see red

With Musk’s US$420 valuation going up in smoke, Freddie Holmes takes a look at the problems behind Tesla’s slumping stock price and where it can go from here

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n August 2018, Elon Musk Iindicated that Tesla could be taken private at US$420 per share, a tongue in cheek nod to cannabis culture. “Funding secured,” he tweeted.

This did not end well, leading to a federal lawsuit and his removal as Chairman for misleading investors.

That ‘$420’ quip feels a long time ago now, with Tesla currently left in a haze of debt, product safety concerns and a share price that has slumped some 40% from prior highs. A seemingly never-ending series of challenges face the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, which has been under the cosh to meet a l quarterly sales targets and source s e T new injections of cash. Wall Street bulls appear to have had their faith © tested to new levels; the bears argue a reality check was just a matter of time.

As of 24 May 2019, Tesla’s stock price hovered around US$191—not That ‘$420’ quip feels a long time much higher than valuations seen during the first quarter of 2014. “ago now, with Tesla currently left Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley who has watched Tesla in a haze of debt, product safety closely for years, recently suggested that the automaker’s stock price could plummet to just US$10 in a concerns and a share price that worst-case ‘bear’ scenario. Well- known for his optimism around has slumped some 40% from Tesla, Jonas has inadvertently achieved cult status as a ‘Tesla bull’. prior highs He even lays claim to a parody Twitter account: ‘Bullish Adam Jonas.’ The latest downgrade is an about-turn from previous sentiments, and also illustrates the Tesla had deteriorated. Even as Stanley’s price target for Tesla challenge of making electric recently as December 2018, from US$280 per share to a vehicles (EVs) at scale in the “Tesla was seen as a growth staggering US$465, heralding the modern automotive industry. story,” he reflected. “Today, it’s brand’s ‘unique position’ to lead in seen more as a distressed credit shared, autonomous and electric and restructuring story.” cars. Following the reveal of the Absolute unit of a Model 3 in April 2016, Jonas noted This change of tune follows several that while Tesla may not have slump years of promising product disrupted the traditional launches and a generally positive automotive industry to the degree In a call to clients hosted on 22 vibe from the investment that had been expected, “we are May 2019, Jonas explained how community. Back in August 2015, now getting a feeling that this may the investment bank’s outlook for Jonas had increased Morgan be starting to change.”

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What has hit Tesla so hard? For those of us who always There are a number of reasons why “thought Tesla's valuation was the investment community has grown cautious around Tesla’s absurd, this is just an overdue performance in 2019. A handful of serious—some fatal— correction with further to go crashes have drawn criticism of its driver assistance feature, Autopilot. Then there are issues with the batteries that power its vehicles; a Then came first mentions of the In December 2018, the stock price couple of recent fires have reignited Tesla Semi in July 2016, with pre- began a sharp and prolonged past problems seen with its electric orders for the all-electric HD truck decline, moving from a high of powertrains. But while product soon coming from big names in US$376 that month to around issues are not to be ignored, it is freight such as UPS and Budweiser US$190 over the course of just five production that could prove to be producer, Anheuser-Busch. By months—equivalent to a decline of the problem. In short, the November 2016, however, Jonas nearly 50%. “For those of us who automaker is haemorrhaging cash, cautioned that reservation holders always thought Tesla's valuation was and is not selling enough cars. for the Model 3 should be absurd, this is just an overdue prepared to wait longer than correction with further to go,” “I feel like the priority is missed expected, with production targets noted Jonathan Storey, Director of deliveries, and what they might deemed somewhat lofty. This industry consultancy Automotive indicate about demand going would prove a common topic in Reports, and author of Automotive forward,” said Karl Brauer, years to come. World ’s ‘Strategy update: Tesla’. Executive Publisher for Autotrader

Tesla's volatile stock price Tesla's v ol atile s tock price 400

'$420 ' twee t Model Y reveal Tesla's biggestever 350 Q-ove-r Q sales drop

300 Adam Jonas' $10 'b ear case' 250 Plan to go private Price cuts in China Miss ed Q4 cancell ed deli very es timate 200 Mo del 3 pricecuts Q1 loss

150 NT SB releases in cident report after 100 Model 3 crash

50

0 19-Jul-18 07-Se p-18 27-Oct-18 16-Dec-18 04-Fe b-19 26-Mar-19 15-Ma y-19 04-Jul-19 Pr ice per share (US$) Source: Automotive World

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Accidents and fires can be addressed through “updates to design and technology, but a shift in the market that puts downward pressure on unit sales is something beyond Tesla’s control

and Kelley Blue Book. “Accidents results, annualised vehicle the Chinese pieces fit together is far and fires can be addressed deliveries could be as low as from certain,” mused Brauer. Or, through updates to design and 250,000 in 2019—far below Tesla’s as Jonas put it: “Could there be a technology, but a shift in the outlined target of between worse time to depend on China to market that puts downward 360,000 and 400,000. sell robot cars?” pressure on unit sales is something beyond Tesla’s control.” A mounting trade war between the A leaked email, sent from Elon US and China is also expected to Musk to Tesla employees, recently Indeed, Morgan Stanley’s Jonas make such targets tough to meet. claimed that the company would in highlighted demand as being “the “If the company can ramp up fact beat its previous record for first domino” in a line of factors production, sales and profit in deliveries, which was seen in Q4 that could see the share price China, that could counter any drop 2018. “If we rally hard, we can do continue to tumble. Based on Q1 off in US demand. But making all it!” it read.

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departure rate of senior under his leadership. Fields Money, money, executives is also concerning.” appeared to be positioning the company for ‘future mobility’, money Indeed, 2018 proved to be alas a lack of emphasis on something of a revolving door for manufacturing efficiency was Then there is the issue of cash flow, senior roles, with VP of deemed a crucial error. Ford not an ideal complement to sky- Communications, Chief People stock hit US$10.87 per share on high spending. In May, another Officer, Chief Accounting Officer, May 19, down from just shy of email to staff described a ‘hardcore’ VP Global Supply Management US$18 per share—a decline of just cost-cutting scenario that would be and Senior Director of under 40%—when then Chief enforced, with the company Production and Quality all Executive Alan Mulally retired in burning through US$700m in the finding pastures new within the summer of 2014. first quarter alone. “The rate at September alone. The trend has which it is burning cash has left continued into 2019, with a From smoking cannabis on investors wondering how much marquee exit being Deepak camera and categorising longer it can operate like this,” said Ahuja, one of Tesla’s longest- legitimate analyst questions as Anna-Marie Baisden, Head of serving executives, who retired “stupid”, to furnishing his private Autos, Macro Research at Fitch in March 2019. Other notable Twitter account with memes and Solutions. “Questions over whether departures include two separate joking about drivers using Tesla can produce at volume and General Counsels, a Senior Director Autopilot to film porn—at a time be profitable still remain.” of Engineering, and directors of where several Tesla crashes were in the headlines—Elon Musk is not the archetypal automotive industry veteran. And that he is, having been at the helm of Tesla Motors since 2003, longer than Dieter Zetsche has held the top The rate at which it is burning job at Daimler. “ The promise of affordable, highly cash has left investors automated EVs has largely proven enough to keep apologists on wondering how much longer it side. “Our Tesla [stance] is hard to live with at times,” Jefferies analysts noted on 24 April 2019, can operate like this “but we see value in Tesla’s EV/connectivity technology and experimentation—no matter the management style—and remain confident there is a path to In his call to clients, Jonas Growth, Global Security and Global sustained profitability.” A recent suggested that Tesla’s Communications. investor note from ARK Invest manufacturing outfit was suggested that Tesla’s stock could designed for significantly higher hit between US$560 and production levels, which would What next? US$1,200 by 2023. The opinion is make dwindling demand all the not shared by many. worse: “[Tesla] built this hulking Tesla’s story is a curious account physical infrastructure to supply of how a company has continued “Even those who had much more like a million cars a year, to secure funding and ignite greater faith in this stock have had not 350,000 cars a year. That's enthusiasm for new product that faith tested, not only by what's creating this bleeding.” launches, despite clear financial recent events but perhaps more by concern and troubled leadership. the growing perception that Elon Storey of Automotive Reports Bear in mind that Mark Fields Musk does not have a realistic holds a similar opinion. “The was ousted as Chief Executive of vision for the company, nor the company is a long way from Ford Motor Company in May skill-set to manage it properly,” showing it can achieve a 2017 following a widely said Storey. “Tesla’s valuation has sustainable profit,” he said. “The lambasted drop in share price been based on an assumption of

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Vehicle manufacturing is inherently capital “intensive; throw in the added complexity of producing batteries, pioneering in driver- assistance technology and juggling activities such as space travel and solar power, and it is not surprising to see Tesla struggling

incredible success. I use the word, usual today, as pressure to cut producing batteries, pioneering in ‘incredible’ in its original sense, harmful tailpipe emissions and driver-assistance technology and meaning not believable, so a reduce the shocking frequency of juggling activities such as space return to a more sane valuation road deaths has forced the travel and solar power, and it is was always on the cards.” world’s major automakers to not surprising to see Tesla invest eye-watering sums in new, struggling. While Volkswagen, With all the talk of bulls and unfamiliar technologies. General Motors and Toyota et al bears, it is important to are looking to the future for long- remember that the automotive Vehicle manufacturing is term stability, Tesla may well have industry itself is a challenging inherently capital intensive; throw to turn its attention to the present beast. It is far from business as in the added complexity of to ensure survival.

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© A ‘quid pro quo’ approach could hold the key to reshaping city mobility

Moving around a city can often be a frustrating affair. For decades the daily commute has been spent in gridlocked traffic, crowded buses and cluttered train cabins. However, the future of city mobility does not necessarily have to conform to the norms of the past, as long as public and private players are willing to scratch each other’s backs. By Jack Hunsley

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he potential benefits of the Tconnected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE) vehicle megatrends are well discussed. Greater connectivity could allow workers to access their latest projects from the cloud and connect to conference calls on the This future is going to be go. Autonomy could be used to “ create a seamless, conveyor belt- shaped city by city as living like mobility network. Shared services could remove the need for and commuting patterns are private vehicle ownership by eliminating the single occupancy vehicle, while electrification could very different yet go some way in aiding the battle against climate change.

However, possibility and reality are two very different concepts. due to its spread-out suburbs, and “The biggest lever we have in Even if the CASE trends look set to thus most of the traffic was from CASE is sharing,” said Justin profoundly change city mobility, suburb to city. Holmes, Director of Corporate it remains unclear exactly how Communications and Public this future will be moulded. As Mayor explained, the suburb to Policy at Zipcar. “If you picture a city commute in Atlanta means it is street congested with vehicles likely to require different forms of today and then fast forward to a A future shaped mobility services. Even if the street with electric vehicles underlying technologies used in (EVs), they look quite the same. city by city Chicago and Atlanta are the same, a Likewise, with connected and shared, autonomous pod designed autonomous the picture is still An important point to recognise is for short inner-city commutes is uncertain. If today the most that the CASE trends will have a unlikely to fulfil the needs of a popular mode of transportation significantly different impact on a commuter in Atlanta, who may end is single occupancy vehicles, in regional basis. Embracing the up spending upwards of an hour in the future it could be zero future of mobility is unlikely to be traffic. Likewise, a vehicle designed occupancy vehicles.” achieved with a single sweeping for an Atlanta commute with effort, as Tom Mayor, a Partner at greater connectivity, space and As Holmes continued, while KPMG and the consultancy’s comfort could prove cumbersome connected, autonomous and Industrial Manufacturing Strategy and surplus to requirements in electric mobility have huge roles Practice Leader, noted at this Chicago. “Cities are going to require to play in the future, their year’s M:bility | Detroit different vehicles. That is going to potential will only really be conference, a two-day event lead to a whole different set of unlocked if shared mobility is hosted by Automotive World . ideas,” added Mayor. truly embraced. In order to achieve this, he stressed the need “This future will be shaped city by for companies and governments city, as living and commuting Vehicle miles to offer incentives. “We see a patterns are very different,” said combination of price incentives, Mayor. For example, in 2018 travelled and more importantly, the KPMG tracked 500,000 mobile implementation of the right phones in Chicago and about While the end result may vary, the policy levers,” he added. “It may 400,000 in Atlanta during the initial challenge is the same. As be in the short term that tech morning commute. In Chicago, Mayor noted, even by KPMG’s providers lead in this future, but there were many five to ten- most conservative estimates, by the ultimate winners will be minute journeys, with few people 2040 there will be half a trillion cities. What we’re starting to see going from the exterior tollway more vehicle miles travelled in the is that the smart tech operators into the city unless they were on a US alone, facilitated largely by are beginning to think about that train. Atlanta was very different greater levels of shared mobility. future now—a world where

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“If today the most popular mode of transportation is single occupancy vehicles, in the future it could be zero occupancy vehicles

mobility services aren’t schemes and proof of concepts Development at Passport, necessarily just services to be that would allow both parties to highlighted, the origin of Uber is regulated, but where the learn together. an example of which automotive government and the private should aim to avoid going sector can partner together to forward. “When Uber entered the deliver more solutions.” Changing ways market they came in with a motto of ‘do not ask for permission, ask In such a future, the role of the In many ways, this approach is at for forgiveness’,” he said. “In automotive industry will be odds with how the automotive today’s ecosystem, you are seeing to provide the platforms and industry has worked with new positions being created technology. In return, governments governments previously. As Devin within the government specifically will open the door for pilot Patel, Vice President of Business to focus on how to integrate with

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new tech providers, as providers and operators want to it can be used as public parking governments do not move as compete against the efficiency and locations. “For emphasis, this is quickly as these companies.” scale that public transportation some of the world’s most can offer,” he added. valuable real estate,” said This growing interest in Holmes. “But Mayor de Blasio integrating with the automotive Tweaks can already be made believed—as we do—that in order industry comes as a double- today in urban planning, to accelerate this future of more edged sword, however. While explained Lisa Niscoromni, shared mobility solutions, we governments are beginning to General Motors’ Manager of Local need to leverage that real estate increase their understanding of Government Relations.“We are in more efficient use cases.” the CASE trends, it is important to stem enthusiasm where necessary. Here, autonomous driving is an excellent example. “All the discussions around automation have made city mayors interested in mobility solutions, which is a fantastic opportunity. The downside is None of us here as mobility that for some people this can be a “ distraction,” said Holmes. providers and operators want

“Shared is a huge component of this,” added Patel. “People keep to compete against the saying that autonomous will solve this and that, but the real way to efficiency and scale that public solve congestion is with shared autonomous vehicles.” transportation can offer

In short, it is important for cities and automotive players to understand that the CASE trends must be given equal attention to maximise their overall potential. already seeing many changes to In return for prime real estate, While viewing any of the trends in zoning regulations that are Zipcar is offering insight and data isolation could help solve certain removing the off-street parking to the city of New York, which will use cases in the short term, in the requirements for developers. That help it evaluate the success of the long term this approach could has made investing—and programme and showcase whether prove troublesome. especially affordable housing in Zipcar can offer a solution that urban areas—more palatable, could persuade New Yorkers away because those parking spaces cost from private vehicle ownership. Room for the old a lot of money,” she said. “In many occasions now, we can This quid pro quo could hold the world partner with private property key in transforming city mobility. owners as they no longer need to Just as major automakers are Even if the CASE trends can have 1.25 parking spaces per unit likely to struggle in juggling all of revolutionise mobility, this does and instead would rather invest in the CASE trends at once, adapting not mean that the old world five spaces for shared vehicles.” city mobility networks for this should be totally scrapped. In future appears a task too large for many cases, it is important to This concept of good land any one entity to master alone. approach new mobility options planning is also applicable to “We need to remember that many with an ‘if it is not broken, do not dense urban environments. For of our customers are the same,” fix it’ mentality. One example here example, Zipcar this year began said Niscoromni. “City customers is that of mass transit, which working with New York City. As are looking to optimise Holmes described as the backbone part of the tie-up, Mayor Bill de that quality of life and we want to of any shared mobility solution. Blasio has offered the company optimise our customers’ “None of us here as mobility strategically placed real estate so experiences and goals.”

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Contactless payments keep cities in touch with future mobility demands

In order for inner-city travel to be a painless procedure, Mobility as a Service (MaaS) providers must work with public transit operators to adopt new payment solutions. By Freddie Holmes

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ompanies known for providing Ccredit and debit cards may not be the most obvious stakeholders in the future of mobility, but the rollout of new mobility services could see the physical ticket resigned to the history books. In Why should engaging with a its place will be the digital wallet, “ which many commuters already city be any different to buying use through contactless card and smartphone payments. a cup of coffee or a cinema Today, the process of travelling across a city can be draining. ticket? Cycling through various screens for a printed ticket at an automated kiosk takes time, requires excess infrastructure and makes the convenience of private vehicle ownership ever more attractive. Queuing up at the ticket office is not much better, and adds staffing costs to the equation. In order to remove single-occupancy cars from the city centre, public transit must be fast, reliable and seamless. This is where contactless payment systems can make a real difference.

“Why should engaging with a city be any different to buying a cup of coffee or a cinema ticket?” asked explained Blanks. “A big Around 43 megacities—those with Matt Blanks, Transportation Lead challenge for cities is handling an more than ten million inhabitants— at Mastercard. Blanks has increase in demand for transport, are also expected to form around the previously been involved with but with no increase in budget. world by 2030. While issues such as Oyster card projects in London, as We look at more efficient ways to housing, energy, employment and well as the 2012 Olympics. He leverage global products to other basic services will take leads a team that has worked with handle that.” precedence, mobility is also a key various transport operators indicator of economic and social around the world, such as prosperity. In order for residents to Singapore’s Land Transport Payment in the utilise public transportation or other Authority (LTA) and Transport for mobility offerings, those services New South Wales in Australia. future of must be affordable, accessible and simple to use. Contactless payment technology transportation has been a breath of fresh air for “With the pressure this massive many travellers. In the UK, 50% Based on 2018 data from the urbanisation places on cities, we of all public transit transactions in United Nations, 55% of the world’s have seen various consumer London are now contactless. It population lives in urban areas. By challenges and friction points,” said may seem a simple tweak, but it 2050, that figure is expected to hit Blanks. “We have learned from the has allowed for a raft of other 68%. Much of this urbanisation retail sector how consumer improvements downstream. “The will be localised within Asia; Tokyo interactions can be simplified, and city has been able to close its is currently the world’s largest city saw transit as a significant way to ticket offices, remove cash from with 37 million inhabitants, and help make cities more efficient and buses, and reutilise those New Delhi is expected to overtake open for residents and visitors resources to run the night tube,” the Japanese capital by 2028. joining them.”

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Today, many travellers no longer public transit. “Planning a journey is cities need to change how they need to queue up for a physical very simple, but payments across interact with citizens in order to ticket, and instead can use a multiple journeys can still be quite change the way they behave.” contactless card in their wallet or complex,” said Blanks. “That is smartphone options such as Apple what needs to be simplified. The company has been working Pay, Google Pay or Samsung Pay. Otherwise, we will not reduce this with Chicago to this end since 2017. “You can use those directly on reliance on cars, and cities will City planners have been transit; it is about breaking down choke with congestion.” investigating how payments can be barriers to interacting with a city made faster and easier, but also and making it quick and easy to This is why companies like how people can be encouraged to travel,” explained Blanks. “It Mastercard and Visa are working travel off-peak. “Chicago really sounds cliché, but transportation with authorities to implement new struggled with how it moved people is the lifeblood of a city. If people solutions that make the most of a around the city, so we partnered cannot use the Jubilee line on the city’s existing infrastructure, and with the mayor’s office and a few London Underground, the Canary handle the growing number of other key partners to incentivise Wharf business district struggles travellers on its network of trains, and nudge customers travelling on to function.” buses and other mobility services. the Chicago Transit Authority As Olabisi Boyle, Vice President of (CTA),” said Blanks. Internet of Things at Visa, noted in The new normal the Automotive World special report, It is not just commuting that causes The path to integrated mobility : congestion, but also regular events Semiconductor manufacturer “Waiting line moments need to taking place within the city, such as Infineon estimates that by 2020, decline in order for smart mobility baseball games. With mid-week more than 60% of all payment to progress.” games starting shortly after work, transactions will utilise contactless many fans end up travelling in the technologies such as Near Field “We understand the pain points of same direction as those heading Communication (NFC). Many trains, cities and transport operators, home. To soothe congestion, metros and city buses all utilise where there are inefficiencies, how incentives were offered for those contactless payments today. The people move around, and how we willing to delay their trip, or even same technology can be used to can help them manage that travel earlier. Anything from unlock shared pedal-assist bicycles demand,” added Blanks. discounts to free drinks have been and e-scooters, too. It has also found offered as an incentive to spread out various uses within automotive; a that demand, making things easier handful of electric vehicle charging Chicago for everyone involved. providers allow for contactless payments, and DS Automobiles Mastercard in particular is focussing “It is about simplifying the even offers a car key that links to on two key issues: making it easier interaction, and then managing that your bank account. to use a transportation system, and demand through a range of managing overall demand for travel. partners and technology providers But with the wider concept of “The biggest pain point is how you to make it less congested,” ‘future mobility’ in mind, the gain access to a train and how you explained Blanks. “People don’t greatest gains should be seen within buy that ticket. The second is that want to think about how they pay

People don’t want to think about how they pay for “their transport, and many cities add unnatural pain points to a public transit system

40 An Automotive World publication M:bility | Magazine - Q3 2019 d r a c r e t s a M Contactless payment has revolutionised Bogota’s bus network © for their transport, and many cities Bancolombia. This allowed decide to work together,” he add unnatural pain points to a travellers to make contactless continued. “We can support all of public transit system. We can save payments directly from their own those things, it just depends on how them money and time, and make it bank account, without having to the game plays out with all of these easier for people to travel around.” queue and top up their Tullave different MaaS providers.” card. Payments could be ‘post-paid’, with a day’s worth of travel settled Looking ahead, cities may Bogota in one go. “You tap in and out as eventually navigate toward an you go through the day,” explained entirely cashless transportation Similar initiatives have taken place Blanks. “At the end of the day, that system, with physical printed elsewhere, such as Sydney, London transaction is cleared so there is one tickets shunned in favour of digital and Bogota. According to traffic charge on your account.” wallets. “Never say never,” said analysis from INRIX, the Colombian Blanks. “If you look at the way the capital was the third most industry is going with MaaS, it is congested city in 2018. Local A cashless society about connecting all of these authorities have been pressing to players together with one revamp the efficiency of its bus In future, the idea is that urbanites account. That account naturally network, which avoids much of this will be able to ride-hail to the train comes through a digital device; traffic via the TransMilenio bus station, take the train and then hop whether you pre-fund your rapid transit system. on an e-scooter for the last mile to journeys or you post-pay them, work. That will only be an attractive you have one credential that gives Access is granted through the proposition if payment is painless. you access to everything.” prepaid Tullave card—‘your key’ in But is it a realistic ambition? “We Spanish—with riders able to simply have technologies available now The smartphone in particular will tap a contactless terminal mounted that can do all of that,” said Banks. be a “portal into the city”, suggested in buses without breaking stride. “It is just about where the Blanks. That is not to say other However, long queues remain a ecosystem goes, and how you put methods will not remain available, serious problem, as funds need to all those players together.” but it will be challenging to use a be reloaded onto the card at kiosks. variety of mobility services Third party top-up stations had As he points out, such a scenario seamlessly with physical tickets and been trialled in shops, but the would require a mix of private and a number of different technologies. scheme proved largely unsuccessful public players all working together. “It needs to be one simple due to inconvenient locations. “Our technology can easily take one technology that can be used around payment from you as a consumer the world,” he concluded. “For In 2015, Mastercard launched a new and pass it on to those three cities to survive, they have to make debit card, via its Maestro brand, in separate companies—it’s more about it quick, easy and simple to use combination with domestic bank how those players and the city public transit.”

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© When it comes to AV progress, miles and disengagements don’t tell the whole story

A record amount of companies developing and testing AVs on California’s public roads means record amounts of public test data, but is it even useful? By Xavier Boucherat

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alifornia law now requires that Call companies testing autonomous vehicles (AVs) in the state provide data to the California Department of Motor Vehicles (CDMV) on the number of miles driven autonomously, along with I don’t think you’ll find anybody details on each and every “ disengagement. These in turn are inside the community that thinks made public, with results for 2018 released in February 2019. There these numbers are a great were few surprises: of the 48 companies listed, Waymo is still measure of progress king of the road with 1.2 million miles logged. A total of 114 disengagements means a rate of 0.09 disengagements per 1,000 miles. GM Cruise came second, competitors, it emerged that open to interpretation. It reads, logging 448,000 miles and a Apple was reporting every for example, that a safety driver disengagement rate of 0.19 per instance in which the driver was taking control of a vehicle in self- 1,000 miles. taking control of the vehicle, driving mode to ensure safe including non-emergencies. This operation qualifies as a But one figure in the latest data was later changed, such that these disengagement. In November demonstrates perfectly the flaws disengagements were removed 2017, a vehicle run by GM Cruise, in the California system: Apple, from the count. nicknamed ‘Pickle’, stopped on a which came third in miles driven crosswalk in San Francisco as a with just under 80,000, logged These stats underline the fact that traffic light changed from yellow to 871.65 disengagements per 1,000 the CDMV’s definition of red. The safety driver took control, miles. Far from lagging behind its disengagement lacks clarity, and is so that the car didn’t block the e l p m i S u T

©

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crosswalk. This is arguably an example of the CDMV’s definition, given the presence of pedestrians at the crosswalk, yet a report by Jalopnik in 2018 revealed the incident was not recorded. The company was clear on what it Furthermore, Apple’s sudden “ change of tactics raises further didn’t want: disengagements questions: what exactly constitutes an emergency? Previous should not include incidents where suggestions from the tech giant have failed to expand much upon a system error leads to a dropout the state’s ideas: “A disengagement should be defined as an unexpected where it wasn’t necessary, event or failure that requires the safety driver to take control of the vehicle in order to prevent a crash operational constraints where the or traffic violation,” it wrote in a 2017 letter to the CDMV. However, driver has been trained to the company was clear on what it didn’t want: disengagements disengage the system, or should not include incidents where a system error leads to a dropout scenarios such as the end of a test where it wasn’t necessary, operational constraints where the driver has been trained to d r o F

©

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disengage the system (such as navigating a construction site), or scenarios such as the end of a test.

The system has drawn a fair number of critics as a result. “TuSimple does not view these numbers as great measures of progress,” said Chuck Price, Chief Product Officer at TuSimple: “I don’t think you’ll find anybody inside the community that does see them as a great measure of progress.” Instead, the self-driving truck developer is one of several advocating the concept of ‘meaningful miles’, and lessening scope for companies to simply rack them up along routes with low potential for learning, such as a highway at night. It’s all we’ve got!

That said, there are those who believe that whilst the system is imperfect, it still holds value. Jeff Blackburn, Head of Business Development at Metamoto, a r

simulation platform being used by e b U

AV developers, believes that with some tweaking, regulatory agencies ©

The latest AAA survey reports that 71% of “participants are afraid of the idea of riding in fully self-driving vehicles, up 8% on the previous year’s survey. This follows a year of high profile self- driving vehicle incidents, including the death of Elaine Herzberg in Tempe, Arizona

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©

If they could come up with a structure which “defined what an autonomous vehicle disengagement was, and how these should be reported, I believe that would yield data transparency which in turn would gain public trust in AVs

such as the National Highway previous year’s survey. This and, as a result, it is affecting how Traffic Safety Administration follows a year of high profile self- consumers feel about it,” said Greg (NHTSA) could roll out such a driving vehicle accidents, Bannon, AAA’s Director of system to help the industry tackle including the death of Elaine Automotive Engineering and one of the biggest obstacles to AVs: Herzberg in Tempe, Arizona. Industry Relations, in a statement. public acceptance. Meanwhile, the CDMV reported Developers are keenly aware of collisions involving AVs more than the need to get the public on their Underlining the challenge ahead doubled in 2018 to 67, up from 29 side, and have expressed support was this year’s report from the in 2017: a natural consequence of for California’s goals if not its American Automobile Association having more companies test on the approach. “Apple believes that (AAA). Its latest survey reports that road perhaps, but a statistic that’s public acceptance is essential to 71% of participants are afraid of unlikely to soften concerns. the advancement of automated the idea of riding in fully self- “Automated vehicle technology is vehicles,” wrote the tech driving vehicles, up 8% on the evolving on a very public stage company, adding that “access to

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transparent and intuitive data on the safety of the vehicles being tested will be central to gaining public acceptance.”

What’s needed, says Blackburn, is The industry will need to better definitions. Otherwise, he argues, testers could potentially “consider carefully how to game the system. “If the authorities could come up with a structure which defined what an autonomous produce fair and comparable vehicle disengagement was,” he suggests, “and how these should be reports reported, I believe that would yield data transparency, which in turn would gain public trust in AVs.” possible, and as such it must kilometre driven metric is missing Faulty though California’s methods continue to refine its processes. from both reports. On the one might be, it is worth remembering Recent data from China has hand, this could be a cause for they are also among the most underlined the importance of this: concern, as it means there is little developed in the world, the the Beijing Municipal Commission way to compare the Chinese tech product of many years of of Transport released the country’s giants with those in the US. On experience in its role as the cradle first self-driving test reports, the other, it might speak to the of life for the self-driving agenda. detailing 150,000km as logged by inefficacy of the metric: driving They will not disappear over night, eight companies working in the conditions in Beijing are very and could yet prove the foundation capital. Of these, Baidu is the different to California test-sites, upon which all other nations, let largest, accounting for more than with arguably more potential for alone the rest of the states, develop 90% of the miles driven. disengagement as a result of their own AV regulations. other drivers’ disruptive A separate report by the Beijing behaviour. The industry will need The state is therefore in a good Innovation Center for Mobility to consider carefully how to position to set worldwide Intelligent also covered the testing, resolve inequalities like this, and standards to make AV testing data mentioning 23 disengagements. how to produce fair and as transparent and meaningful as However, the disengagements per comparable reports. s r o t o M

l a r e n e G

questions remain around the validity of disengagement reports in their current state ©

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© How to solve a problem like the semi-autonomous vehicle?

Great Wall Motors’ Dr. Vladimir Djapic speaks to Freddie Holmes about the challenge of Level 3 autonomous driving and the need for accurate maps

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any believe that driverless assumption that he or she is ready With the system engaged, the Mvehicles will be to take over, despite having no driver is not required to commercialised by gradually obligation to monitor the road. It is “continuously monitor the car introducing higher levels of driver a recipe for disaster. and can focus on another assistance. It is an opinion that has activity,” Audi states. And yet, he been nurtured by the Society of The risks became abundantly clear or she “must remain alert […] Automotive Engineers’ Levels of during the tragic event that capable of taking over the task of Driving Automation, a scale which transpired in Tempe, Arizona last driving when the system prompts describes six levels ranging from year. The safety driver, by all them to do so.” zero (no automation) to five (no accounts a trained operative in steering wheel). charge of monitoring the Uber This so-called ‘handover’ Advanced Technologies Group test scenario has left some scratching Sitting in the middle is Level 3, vehicle, was engaged in other their heads. “The most difficult offering a mix of both human and activities when the self-driving design challenge is Level 3 computer-based control of the system failed to register a pedestrian automation, which includes vehicle. However, there is a lack of crossing the road. highly advanced self-driving clarity as to exactly how and when capabilities that ‘sometimes’ the driver could be required to take require an occupant to take the wheel. Ask five industry The challenge of over if the automation fails,” stakeholders for their said Chris Rockwell, Chief interpretation, and you will likely shared automation Executive of human experience receive six different answers. consultancy Lextant. “It’s one of Despite the inherent challenges, the reasons many manufacturers With a Level 3 system engaged, the many automakers continue to are skipping Level 3 and going driver is no longer required to pursue Level 3 technology. Many of directly to Level 4 automation.” remain alert, despite the fact that the world’s major manufacturers, the vehicle can only operate under including Volkswagen, BMW, Michael Hafner, Head of ‘limited’ conditions. Somewhat Volvo and PSA, are members of Automated Driving and Active confusingly, the driver must also the L3Pilot project, a €63m Safety at Mercedes-Benz Cars, be ready to take over if required— (US$70.34m) effort funded by the warned that drivers may assume a there is a clear conflict of interests. European Commission to validate Level 3 system is more capable The argument is that the vehicle and commercialise Level 3 than it is. “Overreliance, or ‘blind would be able to detect when a autonomous driving functions. trust’, in a system can be very hazard is too challenging, and Audi’s self-proclaimed Level 3 dangerous,” he said. control can simply be passed over ‘traffic jam pilot’ has also been to the driver. This is based on the available since 2017 in the A8. The map as a sensor

As the industry continues to pursue shared control of the As the industry continues to vehicle, any effort to make that handover scenario safer should “pursue shared control of the be welcomed. Advances in human-machine interface (HMI) aside, high definition (HD) maps vehicle, any effort to make that have been put forward as a handover scenario safer partial solution. In short, HD maps can help to should be welcomed prepare an autonomous vehicle (AV) as it enters the unknown. If a long-range sensor cannot accurately judge how sharp an upcoming turn may be, for example, the map can ensure the

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vehicle slows to an appropriate pace. At a complex intersection, that same map can ensure the front-facing camera knows which traffic lights to watch out for. As such, numerous players have dedicated mapping vehicles running on public roads around the world today.

Based in Farmington Hills, Michigan, American Haval Motor Technology (AHMT) currently has two cars roaming the Detroit area in autonomous mode, collecting valuable map data and honing the accuracy of the overall system. A subsidiary of Great Wall Motors, AHMT is leading the Chinese automaker’s push for autonomous driving in the US.

So far, tests have shown that Various other players such as TomTom are developing HD maps the roads of Michigan are easier to map out than those in its home market of China, where crowded lanes can block the view As Mapping & Localisation aware of any upcoming hazards— of image sensors. Manager and Tech Lead, a road collision or a snow Autonomous Driving Systems at blizzard, for example—and pull In June 2018, Haval—Great Wall’s AHMT, Dr. Vladimir Djapic over, rather than immersing the SUV brand—won an award for its oversees how HD maps are driver at short notice. “One of the prowess on an autonomous integrated within these platforms. important sensors that will enable cross-country course in China, In his view, Level 3 systems this is the HD map,” he said, but the automaker is now should be approached with “because it provides information developing Level 4 autonomous caution. “Level 3 is a very difficult on different elements of the road, vehicles that will operate on situation,” he said. At the very which can be combined with pre-defined urban routes. least, the technology should be vision sensor data.”

“With a Level 3 system engaged, the driver is no longer required to remain alert, despite the fact that the vehicle can only operate under ‘limited’ conditions

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scenario there may be red lights behind the wheel blindfolded, yet Calming the nerves everywhere. An accurate map can upon a machine beeping, is provide context and tell the car supposed to take over,” he For anyone that has used a highway where to look—or more stressed. “To stress how difficult pilot system, it can be a nervy specifically, where in the image that is, who would we trust in that experience at times. While straight the region of interest is.” situation: the person that is roads with clear lane markings are blindfolded and has no sense of generally handled well, today’s In fact, he suggests that the what is going on, or the machine? systems can be easily spooked and industry should strive to employ In my opinion, a Level 3 system shove control back to the driver the level of accuracy required by a should have the same level of with little warning. Oftentimes, it is Level 5 system across the entire accuracy as a Level 4 or 5 system.” because a turn—whilst gradual—is spectrum of AVs. “Otherwise, will sharper than expected, and the these features really be trusted?” It is tough to argue the merits of system bails out. If it knew the he continued. “Let’s not simply a Level 3 system from this gradient of the corner in advance, develop something that ‘does the perspective, but as the industry this would help to provide context job’ because it is labelled as a Level pushes on with autonomous on the road ahead and not only 2 technology. The better the drive technologies, it should what is in the vehicle’s immediate system is, the more it will be not ignore the support of a HD line of sight. trusted by drivers.” map. Alas, some believe AV

It is very difficult to detect whether a specific “traffic light is red or green whilst travelling quickly; in a city scenario there may be red lights everywhere. An accurate map can provide context and tell the car where to look

“The map should definitely be The issue of trust developers should do just that. considered as another sensor, but HD maps have come under fire a sensor that can provide The progression from driver by a small collective within the information on what is coming assistance to full automation should industry, with the suggestion up,” said Djapic. The same line of be carefully considered. Having the that vehicles could become thinking applies to more driver as a ‘fall-back’ in the event of reliant on the map rather than challenging manoeuvres, such as a failure has already proven risky in the sensory input of a camera. negotiating traffic lights without the wild. Precise maps are “a really driver input. “If you don’t have a bad idea,” noted Elon Musk HD map, you almost cannot do the While Great Wall continues to during Tesla’s investor-centric job,” he warned. “It is very investigate all levels of automation Autonomy Day in April. The difficult to detect whether a today, Djapic has his reservations same camp has suggested LiDAR specific traffic light is red or green around shared control of the will also become surplus to whilst travelling quickly; in a city vehicle. “A person could be requirements in future.

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f o

y t i s r e v i n U

© Michigan’s private playgrounds present new avenues for AV testing

Autonomous vehicle proving grounds allow developers to hone technologies from the safety of closed-course tracks. But unlike traditional test beds, they must be able to replicate real-world environments, and in some cases, model the layout of a city. Freddie Holmes speaks to the American Center for Mobility, one of the latest of such set ups to be established in Michigan

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ust like any other vehicle Jdestined for public use, autonomous vehicles (AVs) require thorough testing—and lots of it. Not all of that can be carried out in the open, however. Strict regulations dictate how prototypes can operate amid normal traffic, with various hoops to jump through

before receiving approval. Even y t i l then, so-called corner cases—rare i b o

incidents that could prove M

r o

problematic to an AV—are not ideal f

r e when considering the potential t n damage that could be caused. e C

n a c i

At off-road test facilities away from r e the public eye, that is not the case. m A

Test dummies can take the place of © pedestrians, crashes will not incur any lawsuits, and corner-cases can be repeated over and over. As such, anything from abandoned military facilities to derelict manufacturing sites have found a There are hundreds of vehicle new lease of life as AV proving grounds, letting developers off the “ leash to put prototypes through testing grounds around the their paces—safe in the knowledge that any risk is primarily limited to world, but very few that can financial loss at worst. replicate the complex driving There are hundreds of vehicle testing grounds around the world, environments an AV will face but very few that can replicate the complex driving environments an AV will face on a daily basis. It is not on a daily basis simply about honing attributes such as noise, vibration and harshness (NVH). These cars need to learn of Honda, Toyota and Lyft. Paul for Testing & Research of AVs, a how to interact with complicated Cummings, Group Lead for Systems 4.5-acre facility operated by the intersections and pedestrian Integration, Automated Vehicle Nanyang Technological University crossings, and how to react to other Research at Honda Research in Singapore and supported by the road users—particularly vulnerable Institute USA, has described the city-state’s Land Transport actors such as cyclists. As would be base as “an ideal proving ground” Authority. It was built from the expected, the necessary scale and due to its controlled environment, ground up in 2017, with mock subsequent cost of such a facility “which can be continuously roads, intersections, and even means they remain relatively few modified to represent a wide array ‘skyscrapers’ to replicate potential and far between. of settings that an automated cell-signal interference. A small vehicle must navigate, especially for section is also outfitted with a rain Proving grounds urban operation.” and flood simulator. Both Waymo and Uber have their Opened in 2017, K-City is a 79-acre The GoMentum Station in Concord, own test facilities in California and mock town situated roughly an California, is a staggering 2,100-acre Pittsburgh respectively, which act hour from Seoul. It is South abandoned naval base that has as replica towns. Then there is Korea’s primary private test bed been used as a test bed by the likes CETRAN, the Centre of Excellence for AVs. In the UK, the RACE

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facility located in Oxfordshire houses a 10km network of tracks to test both connected and autonomous vehicle technologies. A similar facility has been We act as a bit of a matchmaker— established by the Research Institutes of Sweden and Chalmers “it is a neutral meeting point to do University in Gothenburg; the AstaZero facility contains a variety collaborative research without a of test environments, including rural roads, multi-lane roads, high speed areas and city driving. formal agreement Transpolis, a dedicated ‘urban mobility lab’ in Lyon, France, is also a test bed for AVs, among other technologies. Available to developers is a one-kilometer highway, a ring road, a country y t i l road, and a fake city of 30 hectares i b where traffic lights, pedestrian o M

r

crossings and bus stops help to o f

r replicate urban driving. e t n e C

n a c i

Motor City r e m A

becomes mobility © central Like most AV proving grounds, the a lot of great features, they’re just idea is to foster the development very densely packed,” explained Michigan in particular has become and deployment of future Rupp. “If you’re driving from one something of a hot bed for such transportation systems. It works end of the site to the other, you facilities. Consider the University of with automakers, Tier 1 suppliers might experience ten different Michigan’s Ann Arbor-based Mcity; and a wide array of infrastructure unique things. But in the real world the 4000-acre Chelsea Proving companies. Relevant players also different types of roads are not that Grounds, which has received a have the option to invest and sit on densely packed. If you just want to US$30m investment from FCA; the its Industry Advisory Board. “But experiment on one element, you Toyota Research Institute’s 60-acre they don’t just plunk down dollars only get a short run at it.” site at the Michigan Technical and then come in and test,” advised Resource Park; and the American Jeff Rupp, Chief Technical Officer at Center for Mobility (ACM). ACM. “There are programmes, Sister act experiments and research projects The latter is a 500-acre site adjacent in which they want to be involved, As it happens, Mcity’s Director, Huei to Willow Run, a former and we can help them deliver those Peng, sits on the ACM Board of manufacturing park in Southeast types of projects. We act as a bit of a Directors. “Their staff and our staff Michigan best known for making matchmaker—it is a neutral meeting meet regularly,” noted Rupp. The aircraft during the Second World point to do collaborative research two entities are currently working War. Having served under the without a formal agreement.” together to find projects that can ownership of both Ford and General “graduate” from Mcity to ACM. Motors in the past, its sprawling The benefit of such a large “We’re working on a research grounds today house the ACM, a playground is that testing can project proposal right now involving joint initiative developed by a essentially be carried out in realistic data acquisition systems and data handful of players including the scenarios, rather than having management,” said Rupp, “because state Department of Transportation compact test cases one after the there are massive amounts of data (DoT), the University of Michigan other. Compared to other facilities in being generated by AVs, and you and the Michigan Economic the area, it is one of the larger need to be able to ingest all of that Development Corporation. stretches of land on offer. “Mcity has and make it useful.”

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If you want to replicate real world scale, you need “to come to a larger facility. We have areas where you can hit higher speeds for longer periods of time—it’s more naturalistic in terms of driving

As one would assume, creating readiness, you need a different type “It is probably a better use of my realistic driving environments in of facility,” said Rupp. That said, he time, and a better way to have an which to hone AVs requires space. is quick to underline that there is impact as an individual,” he Of the ACM’s 500 acres, vehicle test no competitive dynamic between mused. “So many people are hurt environments take up around 300 ACM and Mcity. “We are really or killed in crashes, it is a huge acres or so. By comparison, Mcity more of a sister collaborative; we’re problem. When a human driver has about 16 acres of roads and certainly not competitive in any is on his or her game, I’m not traffic infrastructure. “If you want way because our purpose and sure that a machine can perform to replicate real world scale, you intent is very different.” better unless it has access to need to come to a larger facility,” information a human does not. continued Rupp. “We have areas But humans are fallible: they where you can hit higher speeds for All for one make mistakes and get longer periods of time—it’s more distracted, and it is not possible naturalistic in terms of driving.” Previously a veteran of 15 years at to maintain the level of attention Ford Motor Company, Rupp that is required. That fallibility More compact facilities such as reflected on how his position in indicates there is a huge Mcity, he says, are more focussed the industry has changed. Rather opportunity to make a change.” on performing initial research and than helping one automaker move development activities, testing forward, he is now part of a wider Safety is a driving factor behind the concepts and trialling innovative entity assisting the entire industry billions of dollars being pumped approaches. The next step is in its shared pursuit of future into driverless vehicle development, usually to expand that programme. mobility solutions—and not only but there are other societal issues “When you’re ready to go larger automakers, but also Tier 1s and that must also be considered. Not scale or prove out commercial infrastructure providers. everyone has the same level of access to transportation, and vehicles must be designed and deployed with the needs of all riders in mind.

“We want to do whatever we can to help the industry move forward as quickly as possible to achieve all of these great benefits n

a in terms of safety, fuel economy, g i

h accessibility and time efficiency,” c i

M concluded Rupp. “We are not

f o picking winners and losers at y t i

s ACM, we are trying to help r e v

i everybody progress. We will n U

learn, they will learn, and we can © accelerate everybody—we’re all in The ACM has a mutually beneficial relationship with Mcity it together.”

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©

Find a shared mobility platform that can do it all

Once known for spearheading the development of car-sharing platforms, French technology company Vulog is now leading automakers into the shared mobility landscape. By Betti Hunter

hared mobility options continue keen to leave their cars at home. The rise of ride-hailing and car- Sto expand across the world. Until recently, alternatives were sharing models changed Urban dwellers increasingly view limited. Public transit and taxis everything. According to Zipcar, cars as less of a status symbol and were for a long time the go-to back in 2000 its notion of more as a way to get from A to B replacement, but users from providing a free-floating city fleet with minimal fuss. As gridlock in North America to Europe and Asia of easily accessible rental vehicles cities intensifies and drivers resent uncomfortable, often was dismissed as crazy, and initial struggle to find accessible, low-cost unreliable buses and trains and critics of Uber wondered whether parking spaces, many urbanites are expensive cab fares. passengers would be willing to

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carpool with strangers or be driven by someone without a traditional taxi license. But Uber now claims to provide over 15 million rides per day, and multiple car-sharing services now operate in cities worldwide. Research by Navigant suggests that revenue from the car- sharing sector alone is set to grow to over US$6.2bn by 2020. Once dominated by pioneering start-ups, this new mobility landscape is experiencing an influx of new players—including many established names from the traditional automotive industry. g o The appeal of these services has l u V much to do with their convenience. © Most, if not all, car-sharing and ride- hailing services are accessed via smartphone apps, allowing users to book a vehicle or trip with a couple of quick clicks. But such services need a complex platform to, among many things, coordinate and enable Most of Vulog’s customers now, communication between the user, vehicle and the operating system. Such platforms are often difficult to “whether they are a vehicle develop in-house. In response to demand, a handful of companies distributor, energy company or have stepped into the fray to provide full technology stacks. car rental organisation, are Not just for looking to become platforms for car-sharing vehicle rental and usage

Leading the charge is Vulog, a Paris- headquartered technology company that was an early player in the customer facing and the operator help larger operators and shared mobility sector. Founded in sides, which cover everything— established players launch new 2006, it was instrumental in CRM capabilities, ticketing, fleet mobility projects, including micro fostering the first round-trip car control and maintenance, as well options such as scooters. sharing initiatives via its hardware as marketing.” and software development. “It’s not just for car-sharing The company’s technology is anymore,” said Thibault. “Most of “Vulog offers an end-to-end suite, currently used to power over 25 Vulog’s customers now, whether starting from the hardware that goes shared mobility schemes across they are a vehicle distributor, inside a vehicle through to a five continents. But though Vulog’s energy company or a car rental mobility platform that, in a nutshell, genesis was oriented towards car- organisation, are looking to become combines a vehicle with a user,” sharing models, it is now platforms for vehicle rental and said Alex Thibault, Vice President approaching shared mobility in a usage. We’re dealing with more and General Manager of Vulog more holistic way. The company’s companies that want to launch car North America. “We have devised a focus has broadened as it works to sharing and scooter sharing in a number of tools, both on the etch out a space in the market to given city.”

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According to Thibault, the in two and a half months, we send customers the best possible stack company is no longer a mere someone who is able to reverse with the most options available in software and hardware provider. engineer three vehicle models for it the marketplace.” Instead, Vulog is leveraging its to be able to launch in this years of experience in the field to extremely tight timeframe.” help prospective mobility Scooting forward providers into the market rapidly, With projects in China, Western and no matter the starting point, Eastern Europe, North America, This adaptability is a valuable asset, through a variety of fully integrated South America, Australia and New but Vulog is not just paying or guided, customisable solutions. Zealand, the company cites its now- attention to regional differences. As a step towards opening up the global reach as crucial in its ability The company has been watching as mobility market, the company has to pull best practices from a range of the urban mobility landscape shifts updated its Artificial Intelligence markets and tailor solutions to encompass diverse new Mobility Applied (AiMA) platform, depending on customer needs. initiatives. “It is important for which can now support free- “Vulog is the only true global everyone in our team to evolve with floating schemes for instant vehicle platform in the world,” Thibault the times, because what was access within geofenced areas, told M:bility . “When launching a happening a year ago is completely including scheduled bookings. service in China, it can’t be the same different to what we are looking as a service launching in the US, or towards in the next couple of “The big thing that we provide is in Western Europe. Every single years,” said Thibault. our ability to cater everything from time a new service launches cradle to grave,” said Thibault. “If a somewhere in the world it helps us One trend that Vulog has kept a company wants to launch a project learn, and helps us to offer keen eye on is micro-mobility, which the new iteration of the AiMA platform is well-placed to facilitate. In 2018 a partnership with Miami- based electric scooter-sharing company Dashee was announced, followed swiftly by the news that Vulog would be partnering with Segway to expand its scooter- sharing services across Europe.

“We have a number of customers around the world that want to launch mopeds and kick-scooters as an addition to their moped or car-sharing services, and we want to offer as many automakers as possible the chance to work with us and our customers,” explained Thibault. “Segway is both a partner for us and a hardware provider—they have a kick-scooter that comes off the line without needing any more hardware. All a mobility provider needs to do is press a couple of buttons and a few clicks on the back office, and it is uploaded directly onto our back- end platform.”

g As a result of the partnership, o l

u existing Vulog customers in V

© Europe seeking to expand their services will be able to add Vulog’s Artificial Intelligence Mobility Applied (AiMA) platform Segway’s kick-scooters to their operations. It’s an attractive

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A service launching in “China cannot be the same as a service launching in the US, or in Western Europe g o l u V

© prospect for many mobility cheap and fun way to traverse a Thibault. “That is why Vulog providers due to the relative ease city, many citizens and authorities developed predictive algorithms of customer acquisition. complain that the scooters are left that enable our customer base to to pile up in certain zones, leaving split up these vehicles and to “The cost of user acquisition for some streets clogged while optimise locations based on scooters is very interesting,” said other neighbourhoods remain anticipated demand.” Thibault. “It’s not necessarily underserved. “Having 20 scooters harder to do with car-sharing, but within 100 yards of each other is with scooters it is so easy to just pop not a good way to roll these Make it your own in a credit card and start riding, services out, and there is a trend which is very appealing to users.” where cities are asking for more As well as partnering up to push information on where these fleets scooter-sharing to the fore, the However, scooters are currently are located in order for them to company is also leading global experiencing a backlash of sorts. control what is happening on automakers into the shared Though they offer urbanites a their streets,” acknowledged mobility landscape. Currently, Vulog is working with PSA in North America, Kia in Europe and Dongfeng in China, and is set to announce two further high- profile projects later in 2019. “Automakers are in the process of It is important for everyone in our figuring out the B2C landscape “ through forming partnerships,” team to evolve with the times, said Thibault. “What is interesting is that they gradually want to because what was happening a make the user experience their own. Many automakers will launch a project with Vulog’s app year ago is completely different when they need to get to market quickly, but will eventually want to what we are looking towards to own that customer relationship. They will graduate to in the next couple of years their own app, which can still run on our stack without a problem. Frankly, we encourage it.”

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Auto industry embarks on hunt for mobility experts old and new

The automotive industry is not alone in its pursuit for engineers, and is jostling with tech hubs to acquire the necessary expertise in computer-related fields. The Michigan Mobility Institute is investigating the practical aspects of securing the right talent. By Freddie Holmes

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he concept of future mobility Thas sparked a scrap between various industries to secure new talent. As the automotive sector looks beyond simply manufacturing vehicles and toward the provision of services, a The unrelenting pursuit of variety of new job roles are opening up. Filling those positions “next-generation mobility may not be easy.

Professionals with the relevant has highlighted a gap in software, robotics and electronics skills have various career options local talent, with tech hubs on the table, be it at a global tech giant or within the aviation, often luring prospective military and automotive industries. All are after the same talent—it is a tug of war. engineers away

As a heartland for automotive manufacturing, Michigan is well versed in the traditional facets of making a vehicle. However, the unrelenting pursuit of next- generation mobility has highlighted a gap in local talent, with tech hubs often luring prospective engineers away. Silicon Valley is an obvious example, but the likes of Singapore, Tel Aviv and Bengaluru have also become a first port-of- call for those with a software and electronics skill set. To get around

the issue, a dedicated facility has y t i l been established to educate and i b upskill the next generation of o M

y mobility experts in Detroit. And a M for good reason—employment © opportunities are expected to soar in coming years. technology across the state’s Home to the likes of Ford, General 122,000-mile road network, Facing change, Motors and other automakers, supported by dedicated AV along with many of their core proving grounds: the University of again suppliers, the city aims to position Michigan’s Mcity, and the itself as a leader in the American Center of Mobility’s The Michigan Mobility Institute development of driverless cars, Willow Run facility. Earlier in was founded in 2018 by Jessica electric vehicles (EVs) and shared 2019, Waymo voiced plans to build Robinson—previously with Ford’s mobility services. Ford recently its next generation of self-driving Smart Mobility unit and Zipcar— bought the currently decrepit vehicles in southeast Michigan, in and Chris Thomas, a co-founder of Michigan Central Station, which is partnership with local Tier 1 future mobility investment firm being renovated as an 18-storey Magna. Around 400 new jobs are Fontinalis. NuTonomy founder mobility lab. The state has passed expected as a result. Detroit start- Karl Iagnemma and Alisyn Malek, legislation that allows automakers up Rivian is also eyeing local co-founder of May Mobility, sit on to hone autonomous vehicle (AV) production of its EVs. the advisory board.

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It is the first initiative from the Detroit Mobility Lab, an entity tasked with placing the city at the forefront of next-generation mobility. “If the City of Detroit and the State of Michigan are serious about becoming one of the leading future mobility start-up ecosystems in the world,” said Thomas at the time, “we need to create an entity dedicated to producing professionals who will lead in these specialisations.”

Initial investigations have

confirmed expectations that talent y t i l could be tough to source, and i b o

particularly in Detroit. However, it M

y is a challenge the state of Michigan a M has faced before. ©

The market crash of 2008 is widely seen as the worst economic disaster the automotive industry has ever faced. But following the eventual resurgence of manufacturing in Detroit and its neighbouring Talent could be tough to townships, players soon found themselves fighting tooth and nail “source, and particularly in for engineers. A report by the Michigan Department of Treasury in June 2009 found that the state Detroit. However, it is a had the highest unemployment rate in the country—between 10.6% in challenge the state of Ann Arbor and 17.4% in Flint. By 2012, local news outlets reported Michigan has faced before that manufacturers in the state were ‘begging’ for automotive engineers, with job listings rarely taking more than three days to fill. Today, unemployment in Michigan hiring, the topic of talent kept adopting new software-driven is at around 4%. coming up,” explained Robinson. technologies and business models “It turns out there has not been that workers with the necessary Looking ahead, the state is set to much research into the talent needs skills are more sought after than recruit the next generation of for the future of mobility, and folks ever before. mobility experts with the same vim. in the industry have told us that it is It should be emphasised that too important not to focus on.” “Speaking honestly, everybody is existing jobs will not be supplanted. behind,” said Robinson. “Job Instead, an additional array of creation is happening so fast. talent outside the automotive Is Michigan falling Silicon Valley has historically been industry’s traditional expertise is well-positioned in software, but required. “Michigan is quite behind? even there you have a talent war rightfully proud of the number of for computer software engineers engineers it has in the region—it has While Michigan may be facing a who are going into all other kinds been the source of its strength. But talent shortage, the problem of industries—entertainment, apps, as we began speaking with extends elsewhere. The fact is and whatever comes out of Silicon companies that are changing and that so many industries are Valley next.”

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Indeed, the automotive industry of computer operating systems, all faces strong competition from Get in early the way to detailed network outside industries. Automakers perimeter protection strategies. could do little more to set out the With seasoned experts in high For someone that has been stall for future mobility; motor demand, part of the talent embedded in the mobility space shows and press releases are acquisition challenge could be eased for years, even Robinson is dominated by buzzwords relating to at a grass-roots level. The institute surprised at the rate of change connected, automated, shared and plans to launch a Master of Mobility within the automotive industry. electric vehicles—widely referred to degree in 2021, a qualification that The prospect of a legitimate as the CASE megatrends. Mechanical will run in partnership with select qualification in mobility ten years and hydraulic engineering will universities, and based directly on ago may well have been laughable. remain vital, but automakers must industry requirements. “We think “I do not think we were even continue to shake the image of being it’s something the industry needs,” talking about mobility [back behind the times. “Folks that come said Robinson. then],” she mused.

Will we have dedicated mobility engineers in “future? Yes, I think so

out of our schools with traditional Research carried out in tandem Robinson pointed to early trends engineering degrees, and even with Boston Consulting Group seen in the aviation space as an computer science degrees, are not found that the development of AVs indication of the importance of thinking of mobility first. This is due and EVs could create 100,000 US- specialised training. Leading schools in no small part to the fact that as an based jobs over the next decade. such as Stanford and MIT almost industry we do not always do a good Around 30,000 of those positions closed their aerospace engineering job of telling the story about these could be filled by engineers with programmes following World War careers,” said Robinson. “It is as degrees in computer-related II, she recalled, as demand for much a question of how many subjects. The education system passenger air travel did not pick up people are entering the industry as it needs to put future mobility on the as hoped. However, airline is how many leave school with the table as an attractive career path to companies convinced faculties to right skillset. Historically, ensure a steady stream of entrants retain their programmes and automotive hasn’t recruited into these roles. continue training future experts. computer programmers in the The future mobility space could numbers that we are seeing now.” “We do not plan to be an follow a similar trajectory. “We accredited university, but we are need to continue investing in this “We are competing with everyone in conversation with a number of engineering talent—we didn’t have else from a tech perspective,” schools that have engineering or dedicated aerospace engineers agrees Mary Reardon, Head of computer science programmes to before then. Will we have dedicated Talent Acquisition at Continental. talk about how we could work mobility engineers in future? Yes, I The so-called megasupplier has together,” continued Robinson. think so.” numerous locations throughout “These are schools within Michigan, and in 2018 announced it Michigan, outside Michigan, and The Michigan Department of Talent was ‘realigning for future mobility’. even outside of the country, to and Economic Development is “As an automotive industry, we are make sure their students are looking to prepare students for always going to need our well-positioned.” positions in ‘high tech’ fields such as mechanical and electrical engineers, cyber security and advanced but we will probably see a growing Washtenaw Community College in engineering; it expects around mix of individuals in future. Who Ann Arbor, for example, runs a 545,000 jobs to open up through to knows what the next hot technical degree in cyber security, covering 2026—jobs that “employers are in skill will be in five years from now.” everything from the fundamentals desperate need to fill,” it says.

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