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Shinkansen Before and After JNR Reform: Modification of Its Shinkansen Investment before and after JNR Reform Institute of Transportation Economics in Japan Fumio KUROSAKI, Ph.D. Outline of Presentation 1) Shinkansen Projects in JNR Era 2) Shinkansen Projects after JNR Reform 3) Through-Train Operation in Japan 4) Investment & Performance of Shinkansen Lines Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Shinkansen Projects by JNR Niigata Joetsu Shinkansen Morioka Tohoku Shinkansen Okayama Omiya Ueno Tokyo Shin-Osaka Tokaido Shinkansen Hakata Sanyo Shinkansen Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 JNR Reform in April 1987 JR-Hokkaido Shinkansen operation was divided into JR East, JR Central and JR West JR-East JR-West JR-Central JR-Kyushu JR-Shikoku Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Projects after JNR Reform (1) <Shinkansen Lines> Completed by JNR reform (1987) Completed since JNR reform Under construction Sapporo Planning stage Shin-Aomori Hokuriku Shinkansen Tohoku Shinkansen Nagano Morioka Tsuruga Takasaki Takeo-Onsen Ueno Tokyo (Shin-)Osaka Hakata Kyushu Shinkansen Nagasaki Kagoshima-Chuo Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Projects after JNR Reform (2) <Conventional Line> Mini-Shinkansen (completed) Akita Shinjo Fukushima (Dedicated) High-speed train Mini-Shinkansen train Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Line Length and Transport Volume (Transport Volume: million passenger-km) (Line Length: km) 90,000 4,500 80,000 4,000 70,000 3,500 60,000 3,000 50,000 2,500 40,000 2,000 30,000 1,500 20,000 1,000 10,000 500 0 0 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Total Operating Line Length Total Transport Volume Source: Institute of Transportation Statistics (1995), MLIT (2013) Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Construction of New Shinkansen Lines <New Shinkansen Lines> 1. Construction: Public Works Completed since JNR reform Lease Fee Subsidies from Government Under construction paid by JR (Central Gov. : Local Gov. = 2:1) Construction Cost Hokuriku Shinkansen Tohoku 2. Operation: Vertical Separation Shinkansen JR Companies responsible for O&M Lease Lease Fee JRTT (Government Agency) Owner of Infra. & Facilities Kyushu Shinkansen Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Usage Fees : Expected Revenue : Expected Expenses Usage fees of new Shinkansen Lines b The amount is calculated based on “b-a” a Benefits received as an operator of the new Shinkansen Line Case without Case with a (Calculation Period) 30 years old Shinkansen Line Shinkansen Line Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Through-Train Operation in Japan (1) Network of Railway A Network of Railway B Rolling Stock of Railway A Rolling Stock of Railway B Operation by Railway A Operation by Railway B Revenue to Railway A Revenue to Railway B Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Through-Train Operation in Japan (2) Hakata Tokyo Shin-Osaka Kagoshima -Chuo Through-train services Through-train services Kyushu Sanyo Shinkansen Tokaido Shinkansen Shinkansen JR-Kyushu JR-West JR-Central Terminal Border Border Terminal Station Station Station Station Clear Separation of Operational Responsibility Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Through-Train Operation in Japan (3) Timetable at Tokyo Station 3 minute train headway Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Transport Volume of the Lines (Unit: million passenger km) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Tokaido Sanyo Tohoku Joetsu Hokuriku Kyushu Source: MLIT (2013), JR West (2013), JR Central (2007; 2013a) Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Passenger Traffic Density (1) Passenger Traffic Density (passengers/day) = Transport Volume (Passenger km)/ (Operating Line Length × Operating Days) Number of Passengers Passenger Traffic Density Transport Volume (Passenger km） A Sta. B Sta. C Sta. D Sta. Operating Line Length Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Passenger Traffic Density (2) Table: Traffic Density of Shinkansen Lines in 2011 (Unit: thousand passengers / day) No. Name of Shinkansen Line Traffic Density １ Tokaido 219.6 ２ Sanyo 71.8 ３ Tohoku 50.8 ４ Joetsu 39.6 ５ Hokuriku 17.8 ６ Kyushu 17.3 Source: Calculation based on MLIT (2013), JR West (2013), JR Central (2013a) Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Passenger Traffic Density (3) Closer to Tokyo Closer to Tokyo 100,000 180,000 90,000 160,000 80,000 140,000 70,000 120,000 60,000 100,000 50,000 80,000 40,000 60,000 30,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 0 0 3) 1) Omiya Omiya 1) -Nagano -Takasaki 1) Tokyo - Omiya 4) Takasaki 4) -Niigata 5) Sendai - Sendai 2) Takasaki Takasaki 2) 2) Omiya - Morioka 7) Morioka - Ichinoseki EchigoYuzawa -EchigoYuzawa - Hachinohe 6) Ichinoseki - Fukushima 4) Fukushima - Utsunomiya 8) Hachinohe 3) Utsunomiya - Shin-Aomori 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 Tohoku Shinkansen Line Joetsu and Hokuriku Shinkansen Line Source: JR East (2013) 1) Transport volume is large The section closer to Tokyo 2) Ridership is increasing Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Shinkansen Commuters (Persons) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Kyushu 20,000 Hokuriku 15,000 Joetsu 10,000 5,000 Tohoku 0 Tokaido & Sanyo 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: MLIT (2013) The sale of Shinkansen commuter passes is increasing. Shinkansen expanded the commutable districts around Metropolitan areas. Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Revenue from Shinkansen & Conventional Lines (Unit: billion yen) (Unit: billion yen) 1200 1400 1000 1200 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 JR East JR Central JR West JR East JR Central JR West 1987 2011 1987 2011 【1. Revenue from Shinkansen Lines】 【2 Revenue from Conventional Lines】 Source: JR East (2012), JR Central (2013a), JR West (2013) Revenue from Shinkansen has increased largely. Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Management of JRs and Shinkansen Lines (Table) Share of Revenue and Rolling Stock Kilometers Shinkansen Share of Shinkansen Share of Rolling Stock Transport Revenue *1 Kilometers *2 1987 2011 2011 JR East 22% 28% 20% JR Central 87% 91% 81% JR West 42% 46% 37% * 1: Shinkansen revenue / total transport revenue * 2: Shinkansen rolling stock kilometers / total rolling stock kilometers Source: Calculation based on JR East (2012), JR Central (2013b), JR West (2013) Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Management of JRs and Shinkansen Lines (Table) Share of Revenue and Rolling Stock Kilometers Shinkansen Share of ShinkansenIncreasing Share of Rolling Stock Transport Revenue *1 Kilometers *2 1987 2011 2011 JR East 22% 28% 20% Shinkansen is a better revenue earner ＞ JR Central 87% 91% 81% per rolling stock kilometer ＞ JR West 42% 46% ＞ 37% * 1: Shinkansen revenue / total transport revenue * 2: Shinkansen rolling stock kilometers / total rolling stock kilometers Source: Calculation based on JR East (2012), JR Central (2013b), JR West (2013) Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Final Comment 1) This report primarily discussed Shinkansen’s effects on operating companies. 2) Shinkansen operation has large impacts on the social and economic development. Ex.) raising real estate value, easing highway congestion, stimulating job creation, etc. 3) In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the project, it is necessary to include these social and economic benefits. Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 References （Selected) Institute of Transportation Statistics (1995) JNR Annual Railway Statistic, Institute of Transportation Statistics JR Central (2007) 20 Year History of JR Central JR Central JR Central (2013a) Annual Report 2013, JR Central JR East (2012) 2012-2013 Corporate Profile, JR East JR East (2013) Home page of JR East, JR West (2013) JR West in terms of Data 2013, JR West Kurosaki, F. (2008) An Analysis of Vertical Separation of Railways, ITS Thesis, University of Leeds MLIT (2013) Railways in terms of the Figures, Institute for Transport Policy Studies Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013 Thank you for your attention Fumio KUROSAKI, Ph.D. .
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