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The Politics of Transportation Megaprojects

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The Politics of Transportation Megaprojects City University of New York (CUNY) CUNY Academic Works All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects 10-2014 The Politics of Transportation Megaprojects Patrizia Christa Nobbe Graduate Center, City University of New York How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! More information about this work at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu/gc_etds/370 Discover additional works at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu This work is made publicly available by the City University of New York (CUNY). Contact: [email protected] THE POLITICS OF TRANSPORTATION MEGAPROJECTS by PATRIZIA NOBBE A dissertation submitted to the Graduate Faculty in Political Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, The City University of New York 2014 ii © 2014 PATRIZIA NOBBE All Rights Reserved ii iii This manuscript has been read and accepted for the Graduate Faculty in Political Science in satisfaction of the dissertation requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Professor Christa Altenstetter ______________________ ______________________________________________________ Date Chair of Examining Committee Professor Alyson Cole _______________________ _______________________________________________________ Date Executive Officer Professor Christa Altenstetter Professor Alyson Cole Professor Joe Rollins Professor Joseph Berechman ___________________________________ Supervisory Committee iii iv Abstract "The Politics of Transportation Megaprojects" by Patrizia Nobbe Adviser: Professor Christa Altenstetter Large infrastructure investment decisions, especially for mega-projects defined as costing more than one billion U.S. dollars, are largely based on complex, unclear and non-transparent decision criteria. The project’s specific context and a variety of actors and interests add to the complexity of the decision processes. All projects deviate, to a certain degree from a “rational” decision-making process, are politically motivated and subject to multiple interests. Cost-benefit analyses are conducted in about half of the projects. In this work I hypothesize that the politics of project decision-making is comparable across countries, relative to their nature, form of involvement and impact on decision-making. This dissertation develops a theoretical framework to assess the politics of transportation megaprojects internationally, and then tests it by integrating quantitative and qualitative research methods. I apply the framework to a comparative database composed of transportation megaprojects worldwide as well as to two US based case studies. Using this framework the research yields the following main findings: 1. Any infrastructure investment project is a product of its time. 2. Transportation investment decisions most frequently are about funding. iv 3. The dwindling role of national governments across the globe in favor of local v decision-making shifts project and funding decisions to the local level. 4. Creating broad pro-project coalitions is crucial. Each transportation megaproject is composed of different sets of support and opposition groups. Agency fragmentation and privatization trends further contribute to more complicated decision and funding schemes. 5. National governments disproportionately fund projects that have cost overruns and long implementation times. 6. The nature of transportation agencies matters. Depending on the type (line agencies, special purpose agencies, or single purpose agencies) transportation agencies either contain the inbuilt conflicts of their creators, or they already embody consent for a project. This yields strong impacts on project decision and implementation processes. On the other hand, transportation agencies may act as a potential shield from politics, with the ability to hold and maintain items on a long-term agenda. 7. Generally, national level and grant-funded projects face weaker opposition. Further, opposition and cost overrun are associated. v Table of Contents vi Introduction.............................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1: Transport Megaproject Decision Making: Literature Review ..........17 1.1. The Rational Decision-Making Model and Its Demise ............................................... 17 1.2. Which Are the Political Factors Entering Decision-Making?................................... 23 1.3. Contextual Factors ................................................................................................................. 24 1.4. Rationales of Investment Decision-Making................................................................... 29 1.5. Transport Agencies................................................................................................................ 35 1.6. Other Factors ........................................................................................................................... 39 Chapter 2: The Politics of Transport Investment Decision-Making - Theoretical Framework ..............................................................................................................................41 2.1. Scope........................................................................................................................................... 41 2.2. Transportation Infrastructure Investment Decision-Making: Making Sense.... 44 2.3. Transportation Agencies ..................................................................................................... 48 2.4. Political Context and Project Decisions .......................................................................... 52 2.5. Actors in the Political Process: Coalitions, Interests, Power and Money ............ 55 2.6. Transport-Economic Considerations .............................................................................. 58 In Summation ................................................................................................................................................. 59 Chapter 3: Research Design: Quantitative Methods and Case Study Selection 62 3.1. Justification of the Research Design ................................................................................ 63 3.2. Dataset, Quantitative Analysis, Statistical Results...................................................... 65 RanDomness.................................................................................................................................................... 65 Data Representativeness ........................................................................................................................... 66 Statistical Tests .............................................................................................................................................. 66 Application....................................................................................................................................................... 67 3.3. Case Selection and Case Study Research ........................................................................ 68 Case Synopsis.................................................................................................................................................. 68 Selection Criteria........................................................................................................................................... 69 Case Study Methods..................................................................................................................................... 70 Application....................................................................................................................................................... 71 Chapter 4: The Politics of Infrastructure Investment Decision-Making: A Quantitative Analysis...........................................................................................................72 4.1. About the Data and Data Analysis..................................................................................... 72 4.2. Macro-Political Factors and their Influence on Project Decision-Making .......... 73 4.2.1. Notes about the Data....................................................................................................................... 74 4.2.2. Exploring Relationships between Variables ......................................................................... 77 4.2.3. Regression Models ........................................................................................................................... 83 4.2.4. In Summation ..................................................................................................................................... 88 4.3. Project Decision-Makers...................................................................................................... 89 4.3.1. Notes about the Data....................................................................................................................... 89 4.3.2. Exploring Relationships between Variables ......................................................................... 90 vi 4.3.3. Regression Models ........................................................................................................................... 96 vii 4.3.4. In Summation ..................................................................................................................................... 99 4.4. Megaprojects and Transparency.....................................................................................100
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