Interviews Referencing Frank H. Hankins PAA President in 1945-46

DEMOGRAPHIC DESTINIES

Interviews with Presidents of the Population Association of America

This series of interviews with Past PAA Presidents was initiated by Anders Lunde (PAA Historian, 1973 to 1982) And continued by Jean van der Tak (PAA Historian, 1982 to 1994) And then by John R. Weeks (PAA Historian, 1994 to present) With the collaboration of the following members of the PAA History Committee: David Heer (2004 to 2007), Paul Demeny (2004 to 2012), Dennis Hodgson (2004 to present), Deborah McFarlane (2004 to 2018), Karen Hardee (2010 to present), Emily Merchant (2016 to present), and Win Brown (2018 to present) FRANK H. HANKINS

We do not have an interview with Frank Hankins, who was the ninth PAA President (1945-46). However, as Andy Lunde and Jean van der Tak (VDT) were interviewing other past presidents, they regularly asked questions about those early presidents whom they had been unable to interview. Below are the excerpted comments about Frank Hankins.

CAREER HIGHLIGHTS Frank Hamilton Hankins was born in Wilkshire, Ohio in 1877, but grew up in Kansas. He graduated from Baker University in Baldwin City, Kansas, in 1901. He was superintendent of schools in Waverly, Kansas, for two years before going to Columbia University, where he received his Ph.D. in 1908. He taught at Clark University from 1906 to 1922, and was head of its Department of Political and Social Science. He then moved to Smith College, where he taught until he retired in 1946, just after serving as PAA President. However, he continued to work professionally in a variety of teaching and research capacities until his death from a heart attack at age 92, in 1970, in New York City.

From Andy Lunde's interview with Frank Notestein in 1973:

LUNDE: Frank Hankins? He was President in 1945-46.

NOTESTEIN: I can't tell you too much about Frank Hankins. I knew him pretty well. He was at Smith College for years. A sociologist--a social biologist, a field that gets more attention now. Of somewhat rightwing persuasion. Articulate, good speaker. Interested in pushing population; interested in the qualitative aspect of population.

Frank Hamilton Hankins 1877-1970 Author(s): Charles H. Page Source: The American Sociologist, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Aug., 1970), pp. 288-289 Published by: American Sociological Association Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/27701651 Accessed: 21-07-2020 23:28 UTC

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This content downloaded from 146.244.101.138 on Tue, 21 Jul 2020 23:28:10 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms fact, when combined with his failing health in later years, from 1922 to 1946, for most of this period as department probably contributed to his untimely passing from the Lin chairman, was an exciting and noncloistered campus under coln scene of which he had been so much a part, and to the presidency of the nonpareil William Allen Nielson. which he had given so much. Hankins's colleagues in history and the social sciences in Dr. Foster is survived by his wife, Ella Mae, who continues cluded Barnes, Ray Billington, G. A. Borgese, Merle Curti, his contacts with the school by operating a day-care center Harold Faulkner, Kurt Koffka, Hans Kohn, and Will Orton, for faculty members and Lincoln community members. He as well as such sociologists as Howard Becker, Gladys Bry is aso survived by a son, Laurence, Jr., and a daughter, son, and Kingsley Davis (Hankins built well?in succeeding Mrs. Yvonne Sutherland. decades Smith has maintained a cadre of excellent sociolo Reginald McGhee gists). In Smith's cosmopolitan setting that offered the Martin Oppenheimer same challenge and stimulation as had the earlier Clark, Lincoln University, Hankins was a social activist, a leader of his profession, Pennsylvania and a renowned and peripatetic teacher. A deeply concerned student of population, he was active on the governing boards of the American Eugenics Society, the Population Reference Bureau, the Euthanasian Society of America, the Interna FRANK HAMILTON HANKINS tional Population Union, and the Planned Parenthood Fed eration; an ardent supporter of individual rights, he was an 1877-1970 early member of the American Civil Liberties Union; a con firmed rationalist, he was a long-time contributor to The During his ninety-second year and until the end a man of Humanist (in 1960 he was named a "Humanist Pioneer"). remarkable vigor, Frank H. Hankins died of a heart attack In 1930 Hankins was elected the first president of the East on January 24 in New York City. This event took from our ern Sociological Society; in 1936 he became the first editor ranks an eminent sociologist and demographer, distinguished of the American Sociological Review, and a year later he author and lecturer, provocative and influential teacher, was elected president of the American Sociological Society; ardent proponent of a strictly scientific sociology and con in 1945 he became president of the American Population As cerned humanist, and beloved friend of many members of sociation. Hankins taught and lectured widely: at Amherst at least three generations. His "vita," only a part of which can College (where he subversively introduced sociology under be reported here, merely suggests the magnitude and diver the cloak of "economics"), Columbia, the New School, sity of Frank Hankins's legacy. Berkeley, the Army Center at Biarritz (1945 to 1946), and, Born in Wilkshire, Ohio, Hankins grew up in Kansas, following his retirement from Smith, at the University of where he graduated from Baker University in 1901. With his Pennsylvania (1946 to 1948). He was a member of Research A.B. in hand, he followed the then-familiar pattern of serv Sociologists, the Committee on Family Research, and the ing as superintendent of schools (in Waverly, Kansas) for American Society of Naturalists. In 1936 he studied, on two years before entering Columbia University. As a grad the scene, social conditions in Nazi Germany. uate student and fellow in statistics, Hankins was strongly Hankins's bibliography is impressive. In addition to his influenced by the philosophy and logic of John Stuart Mill, volume on Quetelet, he contributed widely to scholarly by the sociology of Giddings (for whom he had lasting ad journals, anthologies, and the Encyclopaedia of the Social miration), by Spencer and Ward, and by the quantitative Sciences (seventeen articles, including sturdy pieces on work of Quetelet, Galton, and Pearson; his doctoral disserta Charles Darwin, birth control, divorce, and social dis tion, Adolphe Quetelet as Statistician (1908), was an im crimination). His ground-breaking study, The Racial Basis portant contribution to the development of empirical sociol of Civilization: A Critique of the Nordic Doctrine, was pub ogy. lished in 1926, and two years later appeared An Introduction For sixteen years (1906 to 1922) Hankins was a member to the Study of Society (revised in 1935), a textual treatise of the faculty of Clark University, and from 1908 he was presenting Hankins's principal theoretical and substantive head of its Department of Political and Social Science. Under concerns and convictions. the presidential leadership of the influential psychologist Hankins was a scientific determinist, but he remained' G. Stanley Hall, Clark University was an important center skeptical of the capacity of social science to rival the the of research, graduate study, and stimulating scholarly con oretical and applied achievements of the natural sciences troversy, spurred by the famous visits of Sigmund Freud and because of the complexity and changing nature of social Havelock Ellis, such dynamic local figures as the psychia causation. In a recent private document, he expressed his trist Adolf Meyer, the learned and bombastic Harry Elmer general orientation by rejecting the "robot" notion "that Barnes, and Hankins himself. Among Hankins's students the stream of culture is a wholly independent variable and at Clark were Howard Odum, E. Franklin Frazier, and Clif mankind wholly dependent thereon, because the human ford Kirkpatrick, who were encouraged by their young mind is the catalytic agent in culture change and scientific teacher-colleague to pursue careers as sociologists; that knowledge the basic progressive factor therein." His writings they did so has of course enriched our many-sided field. show an abiding and powerful interest in the role of bio Hankins's years at Clark were busy and productive: he logical factors in social life and history and, conversely, in contributed substantially to scholarly journals, lectured fre the roles of such selective processes as urbanization, educa quently at other universities, was an active member for sev tion, persecution, and war in the determination of population* eral years of the Worcester school committee, studied social quantity and quality. He argued strongly that differential conditions in Europe before and after World War I, and in fertility between classes is dysfunctional for society and that 1921 taught at the ?cole Libre des Sciences Politique in this problem should be met by birth control: more for the Paris. In 1922 Hankins, with Barnes and others, left Clark lower strata and less for the privileged. University, but Hankins returned in 1964 to receive the Hankins was critical of the egalitarian assumptions of Doctorate of Humane Letters. political democracy, but he condemned authoritarian insti Smith College, where Hankins was professor of sociology tutions and practices and advocated maximization of oppor 288 The American Sociologist

This content downloaded from 146.244.101.138 on Tue, 21 Jul 2020 23:28:10 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms tunity for all. In The Racial Basis of Civilization and else January 5, 1970. She was the widow of Raymond Kennedy, where, he questioned the view that members of different former professor of sociology at Yale University, who was racial stocks are equally capable of individual and cultural killed in 1950 while on a field trip in Indonesia. A daughter, achievement and emphasized the fact that the populations Miss Ellen Kennedy, a junior at the University of Bridge of all large societies are racially mixed; he maintained that port, Connecticut, survives her. such mixture is physically and socially beneficial, and he At the time of her death Professor Kennedy held the denounced racist policies. Hankins's work, then, wears the Lucretia L. Allyn professorship at Connecticut College and three traditional faces of sociology: scientific, humanistic, was the college's senior professor in years of regular service and reformistic. in that rank. She had taken sabbatical leave for 1969-70 In the circles of both gown and town, and among both to continue her long-term study in the field of mental retard cosmopolitans and locals, Frank Hankins enjoyed wide ation. Since 1948 when she published the results of her esteem and deep affection. Tough-minded, at times viewed research into the social adjustments of mentally retarded as stubborn, a doughty opponent in debate, he persistently young adults, she was a nationally recognized authority in sought new knowledge and ideas, had little use for conven this field. Not content merely to study the mentally handi tional or fashionable wisdom as such, and welcomed the capped, she devoted herself also to providing leadership challenge of intellectual dispute. He was a sensitive and and inspiration to local, state, and national associations for generous friend, a chairman guided by coll?gial norms, and their aid. For many years she served on the board of the a wise counselor who encouraged students and younger col New London County Association for Retarded Children; she leagues to pursue their own interests. He was a delightful had been chairman of the research committee of the Con companion, splendid host, skillful gardener, enthusiastic necticut Association for Retarded Children; and in the fall philatelist, and became in recent decades an investment of 1969 she was elected chairman of the board of directors expert?and, of course, he was much more. of the Connecticut State Training School at Mansfield. Re For many years, until the fall of 1969, Frank Hankins cently she had concluded her service as a member of the and his wife, the former Anne Keeling, graced one of the Psycho-Social Advisory Review Board of the United States oldest and loveliest homes in Northampton. Besides Mrs. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Hankins, he is survived by his brother Dr. Ralph H. Hankins, Professor Kennedy was born in S?nger, Texas, November his sons Frank H., Jr., and Dr. Orville L. Hankins, his 5, 1908. She received her bachelor's degree from Texas daughter Margaret (Mrs. James A. Farmer), six grand State College for Women in 1929, and her M.A. and Ph.D. children, and five great-grandchildren. were awarded by Yale University in 1936 and 1938 re Charles H. Page spectively. Her dissertation, written under the tutelage of University of Massachusetts Professor Maurice R. Davie, explored the relationship between residential propinquity and ethnic endogamy in the New Haven community, a topic that became the basis for several articles in The American Journal of Sociology dur GUSTAV ICHHEISER ing the 1940s. Later she extended her study to include the religious 1897-1969 affiliation of her subjects and discovered from her sta tistics that the device through which ethnic minorities were Gustav Ichheiser died in Chicago in November 1969. He being assimilated into American society was a "triple wrote articles and books on social psychological subjects melting pot," rather than the accepted single one. She con in Vienna in the 1930s and he came to this country as a cluded that although the different nationalities were clearly refugee about 1940. He lived and worked in and about merging with the passage of time, this was not an indis Chicago for most of the rest of his life. For a time, Ichheiser criminate process; on the contrary, it was being conducted was a professor of sociology at Talladega College; his most within the compartments of the three major religions of recent employment was as an associate, first, of Hans Morgen the western world: Protestant British-Americans, Germans, thau in developing a theory of international relations and, and Scandinavians intermarried; Catholic Irish, Italians, and later, of Sol Tax in analyzing communications among as Poles formed a separate intermarriage group; and Jews sociates of Current Anthropology. remained almost completely endogamous. In a subsequent Dr. Ichheiser's main book from his Vienna days is article Professor Kennedy reported that the lines of religion Critique of Success. When he came to this country, he con held fast through the 1940s. The "triple melting pot" con tinued to write, his main publication being Misunderstand cept soon became famous and has been the source of lively ings in Human Relations published as a special supplement sociological speculation ever since her felicitous use of the of the American Journal of Sociology (September 1949). A term. volume of his papers, Appearances and Realities: Misunder In 1961 Professor Kennedy edited a collection of articles standing in Human Relations (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass) and monographs by Professor Davie that had been presented was in press at the time of his death. to him by his colleagues at a testimonial dinner in honor Everett C. Hughes of his retirement from Yale. Boston College Before coming to Connecticut College in 1945, Professor Kennedy taught at Vassar College and at Texas State College for Women. She also served as research associate RUBY JO REEVES KENNEDY on the staff of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washing ton, D.C, and with the Yale Institute of Human Relations in 1908-1970 New Haven. At a memorial service in Harkness Chapel on January 8, Ruby Jo Reeves Kennedy, chairman of the Department 1970, Charles E. Shain, President of Connecticut College, of Sociology at Connecticut College for the past twenty-four recounted the qualities that had endeared Professor Ken years, died suddenly at her home in Waterford, Connecticut, nedy to her colleagues and students, saying, in part, August 1970 289

This content downloaded from 146.244.101.138 on Tue, 21 Jul 2020 23:28:10 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms We do not have a presidential address for Frank Hankins, but this paper published in 1938 provides some insight into his thinking.

American Academy of Political and Social Science

Pressure of Population as a Cause of War Author(s): Frank H. Hankins Source: The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 198, Present International Tensions (Jul., 1938), pp. 101-108 Published by: Sage Publications, Inc. in association with the American Academy of Political and Social Science Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1021206 Accessed: 24-07-2020 19:02 UTC

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W AR arises from numerous and men would behave as we think they diverse causes. The conditions should behave. which give rise to it change from cen- This brief paper attempts a purely tury to century in correspondence withobjective analysis of the role of popula- changes in the social setting. There tion pressure as a cause of war. It ap- seems to be no form of internal social peals to no emotion; it preaches no organization that eliminates its causes. sermon. It has flourished under tribalism, MEANING OF "CAUSE" feudalism, monarchy, democracy, plu- tocracy, and both mass and individual It seems desirable to begin by a brief dictatorships. Moreover, as with all discussion of the meaning of "cause" important social phenomena, war does in a social context. Since social causa- not spring from a single factor or con- tion is always complex, and since the dition; its causes constitute a social factors involved are certain to have complex, which may never be twice the different degrees of importance, one same. Here as elsewhere in the social may define a cause as any social condi- field, it is extremely difficult to iso-tion which being present facilitates the late the causal conditions with cer- appearance of the phenomenon, and tainty and assurance. which being absent tends to forestall It follows that lists of the causes of such appearance. Such a concept of war include items that are inoperative cause derives from the theory of prob- some or even most of the time; and abilities. It implies that a cause of that different individuals attribute war may be present in certain social very different importance to the differ- complexes where war does not arise. ent factors operating in a given case. A teeming population, ambitious na- Moreover, these questions are seldom tional leaders, or frustrated trading ad- discussed as questions of social physics, vantages may or may not be factors in or even as questions of social psychol- war in particular situations. The ogy. They are for most persons ques- question of their causal relationship tions of social ethics; for some they can be determined only by a statistical are questions of economics; and insurvey which indicates whether or not most cases they are discussed from theythe show an appreciable correlation basis of simplistic assumptions leading with those situations in which wars to clear, logical solutions, more or arise.less distantly removed from the realm of It is not necessary, therefore, to practicality. show that population pressure inevita- That is, it is a relatively simple mat- bly produces war, in order to demon- ter to devise intelligent solutions for strate that it may in some cases be one our social ills, but quite a difficult mat- of the contributing causes. Nor is it ter to put the solutions into effect. necessary It in this brief paper to distin- would, in fact, be a relatively easy guish major from minor causes, surface matter for us to tidy up the whole causes or "occasions" from underlying world, internally and externally, if only causes, persistent from temporary 101

This content downloaded from 146.244.101.138 on Fri, 24 Jul 2020 19:02:17 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms 102 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY causes, or to attempt a classification and acquired a taste of a rising stand- into economic, political, racial, reli- ard of living makes it easy to convince gious, and other causes. themselves that they need new mar- The situational factors in war causa- kets and new sources of food and raw tion are extremely diverse because the materials. direct and immediate cause of war is Obviously, the role of population a psychological attitude. Not only pressuredo in such a social complex can- these psychological attitudes vary, butnot be determined with any exactness. a given external situation may or mayIt seems well-nigh certain, however, not give rise to a warlike attitude, thatbe- growth in numbers is associated cause of variations in the attendant with an expansion of national pride. circumstances. We are witnessing This in growth in numbers has in modern Europe today events that a generation times been associated with increased ago would in all probability have beeninterdependence of all classes and re- looked upon by the English or gionsthe of the nation, as well as with French public as grounds for war. facilities A for the development of like- war-weary and disillusioned public, mindedness and concerted action. A filled with pacifist sentiments, prefers, modern nation is, from many view- however, to disregard aggressions points,that the primitive village expanded once would have filled it with heroic to the nth degree. It may have its idealism. internal dissensions, but it presents a united front to any threat to its wel- CONSCIOUSNESS OF POPULATION fare, and supports with common en- PRESSURE thusiasm whatever policies seem likely Whether or not a nation feels popu- to enhance the group advantages. lation pressure is, therefore, a problem Now, the growth of population to with many variables. It is belief and a point where the opportunities for the feeling attitudes that accompany employment throughout the national it that always count as the motivations domain and the national economic of action. Masses of men are gov- structure are saturated, is a prerequi- erned in their group behavior by emo- site of complete integration and of the tion rather than reason. One group intensified spirit of nationalism which may feel distinctly cramped though its results therefrom. Moreover, when a density is less and its standard of living nation has reached this stage and there higher than that of another group is a serious disturbance of its national which displays little urge even for mi- economy, whether internal or external, gration, to say nothing of preparing its sense of population pressure tends an aggressive war. to be greatly accentuated. Sir Henry The present war of Japan upon Campbell Bannerman said a quarter- China seems certain to produce pro- century ago during a period of business found changes in the psychology of the recession that England had ten million Chinese, just as the industrial and too many people. The idea was re- commercial advances of the past two peated by Lloyd George during the generations have transformed that of 1920's. The statements may or may the Japanese. In any case, the Japa- not be sound from the standpoint of nese are filled with the psychology of economic analysis. That they re- expansionism as compared with their flected an almost universal feeling former hermit frame of mind. The of population pressure cannot be fact that their population has doubled doubted.

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The term "population pressure" that the term "pressure of population" needs further analysis. This term ismust comprise not merely density and by no means synonymous with mere standard of life, but also the extent and numbers or density. Populations nature of the resistance to expansion. which are largest and most dense, such The westward flow was the result of a as those of India and China, have not tendency to equalize opportunities for been driven to wars of aggression by a livelihood in east and west. It was population pressure. It does not fol- checked from time to time by in- low that there is no sure sign of pres- creased resistance of the native popu- sure until the population has become lation, and stimulated by the varying so dense that it perforce spills beyond tide of European immigration. the national boundaries. The term Pressure of population does not, "pressure of population" cannot then, be mean a crude Malthusianism. confined to direct pressure on The the reduction of the force of famine, means of subsistence, though this vice, con- and pestilence has not resulted in stitutes the simplest case. Here an weincreased pressure of population on have the so-called "hunger" wars, the means of subsistence. The truly where a population is confronted with prodigious increase in numbers of the famine in consequence of drought, past 150 years has been accompanied flood, or other natural disaster. It has by a more or less steady rise in the three alternatives: death by starva- standard of living as measured by the tion; peaceful migration, where avail- quantity of consumable goods per capable territory makes such possible; ita, a rise greatly accentuated in recent and invasion of a neighbor's territory. times by the adoption of contraception In countless cases it has chosen as a negative check on population in- the last. crease. Only war remains as an im- In fact, so frequent has been portant this factor among the original situation as regards the relations Malthusian of positive checks. nomadic herdsmen to neighboring POPULATION AS RELATED TO peasant populations that Oppenheimer LIVING STANDARDS has erected on it a theory of the origin and evolution of the state. The Thegreat result is that the form of popu- migrations of the early centuries lation of pressurethe today must be con- Christian era seem to have been of this ceived in terms of pressure upon the sort, and they gave rise to innumerable standard of living, in which must be wars. Such experiences may, more- included not merely a quantity of con- over, develop the habit and tradition sumable goods, but a mode of life and of war; they perfect the social organi- a set of life expectations. The combi- zation and the psychology of the heroic nation of large numbers and a high which go far to make war successful. standard of living makes population It is but a short step from the true pressure as a factor in war psychology hunger wars to the wars of an expand- vastly more significant than it can pos- ing population in contact with a rela- sibly be in the case of a low-standard tively stationary native population population. Because of the low level living on a lower standard. A typical of their material culture, the vast case here is the westward expansion of populations of India and China have the American agricultural population developed neither the resources nor and the consequent Indian wars. the social organization to wage a mod- Such movement illustrates the view ern war, especially a war of aggression;

This content downloaded from 146.244.101.138 on Fri, 24 Jul 2020 19:02:17 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms 104 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY they have acquired neither the na- RESISTANCE TO EXPANSION tional self-consciousness nor the esprit de corps needed to prepare and fight a As intimated above, what consti- war of more than desperate defense. tutes disturbing pressure is necessarily When, however, a population has a correlative of the resistance to ex- grown large and compact; has become pansion. Some disequilibrium of accustomed to a high and rising stand- forces is necessary to any movement. ard of living; has acquired an intense A strong water main will hold water spirit of patriotism and facilities of within secure confinement and har- communication so that the whole na- nessed to human needs under a pres- tion can be suffused by a common emo- sure that would wreck a weaker main. tion; then a threat to the national wel- In the latter case the water breaks fare may well lead to war. bounds and causes havoc and destruc- There is thus a vast difference in the tion. One cannot say that in the concrete situations leading to modern former case high pressure caused no wars and to the hunger wars of a sim- damage, while in the latter a relatively pler economy, but this does not de- low pressure caused great damage. stroy a certain recurrent similarity of The overflow must be attributed to the pattern. The nomadic herdsmen weak restraint as well as to the quan- fought for new feeding grounds; agri- tity of water. It follows that one can- cultural peoples fought for new lands; not determine population pressure by but an industrial people fights for mar- mere figures of density per square mile kets and sources of raw materials, ofnot territory. He cannot do so even by indeed to prevent starvation, but a combinationto of figures of density plus safeguard and improve a standard figuresof of standard of living. One well-being. must know what resistance population This view translates population movement will encounter. A thin pressure into economic pressure. Not population may spread in the hope of that the two are synonymous, but that, improving its lot, if the restraining once it is seen that population pressure barriers are low and the enticements is not mere density or mere numbers, strong. Many early American pio- but must include as an integral part of neers pushed farther westward from its definition the customary standard time to time because in their opinion of living and the normal life expecta- the population was too thick when tions of the population, then it be- neighbors came closer than a mile or comes clear that population pressure two. makes up a large part of the wider Such migration is the first normal concept, economic pressure. reaction to population pressure where Now economic pressure, like all opportunity for migration exists. In causes of war, must be translated into the century following 1820, around psychological terms. In such terms it forty million emigrants left Europe for appears to be uniformly low among a permanent settlement in the Amer- poverty-stricken population, no mat- icas.1 This was Europe's spawning ter how dense. It appears to reach its period, and this vast flow of popula- maximum in a high-standard population from areas of relatively high to tion having a well-integrated national areas of low pressure had important life, when its standard of living is re- 1 See A. M. Carr-Saunders, World Population, duced by economic policies applied by p. 49; R. R. Kuczynski, Population Movements, other nations. p. 22.

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repercussions on the economic and po- proved so profitable that it brought litical history of Europe. Gradually about a continuous tendency to divert the formerly vacant lands of the tem- the nation's labor and capital to trade perate zones have become filled with and manufacturing. Not only did the teeming populations, so that the easy standard of living rise, but the popula- flow of the past has been stopped. tion was urbanized and became ac- Moreover, it is nearly impossible to customed to new life routines and to induce people to migrate from areas of a relatively rapid expansion of life op- advanced material culture and modern portunities. National life was inte- social services to undeveloped areas or grated, the level of national self-con- to areas where they must compete sciousness raised, and the nation with a lower-standard population. In otherwise made ready to respond as a addition, instead of inducements to unit to any threat, real or apparent, to immigrants, barriers have been erected what was believed to be the national against them throughout most of the interest. Moreover, these steps are world today. irreversible in any short period of time. Now it seems clear that, other things A population once shifted from coun- being equal, the cessation of the tend- try to city loses its old skills and ency of population pressures to read- acquires new habits and a new outlook just themselves by the peaceful expe- on life. Once urbanized and indus- dient of migration will result in an trialized, it must, for the most part, intensification of the pressure for ex- make its living by urban pursuits. pansion in areas where population is There were several important con- increasing. Under these circum- sequences of these developments. stances it will require a constantly in- The capitalistic nations tended to decreasing resistance on the part of other velop a badly balanced internal econ- populations to prevent the expanding omy. They acquired more people populations from breaking their than they could either feed or employ bounds. on their own resources. Hence the scramble for colonies. Since the in- WORLD DEVELOPMENTS SINCE dustrial technique proved so profita- 1750 ble, every backward nation became The virtual closing of the frontier anxious to adopt it, and was usually throughout the world in the last gen- aided by the exportation of both capi- eration marks the end of an era in tal and capital goods from the ad- world history. It was an era marked vanced nations. Seeking to retain by several striking developments perti- their home markets to themselves, nent to the present discussion. There tariff barriers were gradually raised by was, first, the virtual trebling of theall nations. world's population since 1750.2 Dur- Meanwhile, the annual increments ing this time Europe's population to the population in most advanced much more than trebled. There was, countries continued to rise even after second, the spread of the industrial there were many signs that the era of technique from England to all parts easy of and rapid expansion of the capi- the world, and its special development talist economy had come to an end. among the nations that now rate asBecause of the persistence of the mores great powers. of marriage and family, the birth rate Third, the industrial technique of a nation cannot at once be adjusted 2A. M. Carr-Saunders, op. cit., p. 30. to a changed economic situation.

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Consequently, population pressure has dustrial organization and the reactions tended to increase in Germany, Italy, thereto of a bewildered public. Japan, and elsewhere during the past NATIONS MOST AFFECTED twenty years. These developments have left sev- The nations most critically affected eral of the industrial nations in more by this situation are Germany, Italy, or less of a dilemma. Owing to the and Japan. For Germany, an impor- law of diminishing returns in agricul- tant factor has been the reduction of ture, an industrial nation which is al- foreign markets by high tariffs. For ready practicing intensive agriculture Italy, a factor has been the erection of can feed its population only by an ex- immigration barriers. Japan has ar- pansion of its opportunities for urban rived at the stage of most rapid in- employment. This means that it crease in numbers at an extremely un- must expand its exportation of manu- favorable conjuncture of world affairs. factured products in exchange for There can be no doubt that she needs needed food and the raw materials of imported food and raw materials; and industry. An alternative is that it ex- she must have markets for her silk and port men. We have seen, however, manufactures in order to buy the that high barriers have been erected needed imports. Japan may be mis- against the export of either goods or taken in believing that she can find a men. There remain two other possi- partial solution by controlling the fu- bilities: a reduction in the standard of ture economic development of Man- living, and forceful seizure of territory churia and North China. Nations are promising the needed food and mate- often badly fooled. I think it reason- rials. able to say, however, that the need she Birth control will help to solve the feels for expansion is based largely on problem in the long run, but the gen- her huge and growing population. eration subject to the most intense The contrast between these coun- pressure will certainly be difficult to tries and Great Britain, however, is control. It is almost certain to ex- only one of degree. The latter has a perience periods of extensive unem-large and dense population dependent ployment and a general reduction on ofoverseas trade for food, raw mate- the standards of well-being. If the rials, re- and markets. She must, there- straining bonds are too great to permit fore, maintain a navy large enough to an aggressive effort at expansion, thereguarantee free ingress and egress of will be an intensification of internal ocean-going vessels. Should she lose civil strife and possibly revolution. control of the sea, she would run the These have been the antecedents of risk of general poverty, if not of actual Fascism and National Socialism. famine and revolution. She is over- Even in this country, the depression populated from the standpoint of a produced much talk of planned self-sufficient econ- economy; and this is omy and an enormous extension of true of other colonial powers-France, governmental authority. Two na- the Netherlands, and Belgium, as well tional needs emerge as supreme: order as Italy and Japan. must be preserved, and the population Having been first on the scene, how- must be fed. Let me add that the ever, Great Britain retains immense threat to democracy does not comehistorical advantages. Not only do from ambitious and designing men.trade lines once established tend to It comes from the breakdown of in- persist through elements of monopoly

This content downloaded from 146.244.101.138 on Fri, 24 Jul 2020 19:02:17 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms PRESSURE OF POPULATION AS A CAUSE OF WAR 107 of place, organization, and production, is not probable, however, that the but her enormous investments in high-standard nations possessed of mines, forests, oil fields, and rubber either large domestic or colonial terri- plantations place her in a position tories of will give lower-standard nations relative Imperial self-sufficiency. free She access either to their lands by mi- must, however, be ready to fight gration in or to their raw materials and defense of her position, because markets the by trade. No doubt much welfare of her large population iscould de- be done by the establishment of pendent thereon. Back of her foreign a sound world currency, by a reduction policy is a definite population pressure. of tariffs, and by the introduction of She must fight to hold what others a friendly spirit of international co- think they need. operation. Since nations can buy only when they are able to sell, any re- WHAT IS THE SOLUTION? laxation of trade restrictions between There is no easy and happy general nations, by reciprocal trade agree- solution of such a world situation that ments or otherwise, should tend to re- seems readily practicable. From aduce international tensions. strictly realistic viewpoint one can say HOPEFUL AND OTHERWISE that, all the factors being what they are, the world situation could not be One need not be very hopeful that otherwise than what it is. Idealistic, these objectives can be largely at- purely logical, aprioristic solutions tained in the near future. Meanwhile may be numerous, but there seem to the world seems likely to follow the be no real ones. The history of post- age-old plan of increasing the external war Europe is strewn with the wreck- pressure against the expanding nations age of logical plans for the relief of in the hope that they can be prevented international tensions, plans formu- from breaking bounds. In this direc- lated by experts but wrecked by poli- tion one can detect one basis of opti- ticians compelled to cater to popular mism. The increased cost and de- prejudice or lose their jobs. This structiveness of war may possibly in tendency of a priori schemes to be the future convince all peoples that wrecked in practice is mainly a conse- nothing can be gained by it which com- quence of the operations of mass psy- pensates for its losses. chology which we have as yet no It should be noted, however, that means of controlling. Even if the such a conviction, even if held by all map of the world could be redrawn into the powers, may not prevent territorial self-sufficient units, it would have to expansion by a population that de- be redrawn again in another genera- velops strong expansionist tendencies. tion, because of differential rates of This is a question of the balance of population increase and the concurrent internal pressure and external resist- industrial and psychological changes ance. The surrounding populations in the different national economies. may not be able to develop sufficient Idealistic solutions run along the resistance to prevent such a step, espe- line of complete or increased freedom cially when the great powers who of movement of both men and goods. might add to the resistance are unwill- Obviously, if the world were thrown ing to do so in an effective manner, be- open to free migration and free trade, cause they have much to lose and little inequalities would tend to be equalized to gain by doing so. The willingness before pressures became explosive. It and the readiness to fight may be, and

This content downloaded from 146.244.101.138 on Fri, 24 Jul 2020 19:02:17 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms 108 THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY apparently is today in Europe, suffi- and evenAfrica, may well make it more ciently different in the various nations and more difficult for the industrial to induce the yielding of territory nations of Europe even to maintain without a fight to the nation develop- their recent standard of living, to say ing the more aggressive attitude. nothing of increasing it. As new na- Such a nation is almost certain to be tions enter upon industrial develop- one feeling a strong population pres- ment their populations grow and they sure. The recent annexation of Aus- cease to be exporters of foods and raw tria and the imminent changes in materials. the The industrial nations of relations of Germany to Czechoslo- Europe may well find themselves vakia are cases in point. Whether pushed a by increasing internal difficul- new equilibrium can be established ties by and by increasing international these means remains to be seen. competition to make war on less de- Then there is another small ray of veloped populations that are increas- optimism. All the leading nations of ingly pushing for control of natural re- the world except Russia and Japan sources and trade advantages which now have birth rates lower than true Europe has thus far succeeded in re- maintenance rates, and there is a con- serving largely for herself. Nations tinuing tendency for these rates to de-do not surrender such advantages cline still further. Russia has im- without a struggle, except in the face mense territories and will long be busyof insuperable odds. with internal developments. Japa- It seems out of the question for the nese aggression seems likely to meetmoment to set up an international or- sufficient obstacles in Asia. It is ganizationpos- able to settle questions of sible, therefore, to envisage a variabletime national need by democratic when actually decreasing populations parliamentary processes. Until that in Europe will greatly reduce threats time comes, it seems probable that re- of forceful expansion there. curring differentials of population Here again, however, one should pressure not must be counted among those be over optimistic. The rising indus- factors which from time to time trialism of the Orient, South America, threaten peace.

Frank H. Hlankins, Ph.D., is professor of sociology at Smith College, Northampton, Massachusetts. He has also served as professor of political and social science, of sociology, and of social science, at Clark College, Clark University, and Amherst College; and as visiting professor at Columbia and Cornell Uni- versities, University of Oregon, and Smith College School for Social Work. He is president of the American Sociological Society and is author and co- author of numerous works, including "An Introduc- tion to the Study of Society" (1928; revised edition 1935). He was special editor for sociology, Webster's International Dictionary, revised edition.

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