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Mike the Analyst Mike Kwok Email: [email protected] Mike The Analyst Phone Number: (852) - 95035885 Value Investing - Asia Focus Analyst: Mike Kwok / [email protected] Contestant ID: Kwokmi Equity Research Xinyi Glass Holdings 0868:HK Exchange: SEHK Glass Industry Company Description Rating: Buy Xinyi Glass Holdings (XYG) specializes in manufacturing and sales of different glass Target Price: 5.40 products including float glass, automobile glass, construction glass for commercial 9.25% Upside and industrial uses. With production facilities located in Guangdong province Current Price: 4.94 (Shenzhen, Dongguan and jiangmen), Anhui Province (Wuhu) and Tianjin. The Report Date: 5-Jul-14 products footprint spans around 130 countries from Asia-Pacific, Europe to North & Mkt Cap.(HKD'M): 18,932 South America. Major customers include automobile manufacturers, wholesalers, O/S Shares: ('000) 3,832,349 distributors and repair centers as well as construction & furniture glass manufacturers, Free Float %: 100 float glass wholesalers & distributors. The group also engaged in automobile rubber 52 wk H/L (HKD): 8.62/4.57 and plastic components production. 30d Avg Daily Vol: (Mil) 17.28 Overall profit margin reduced, partially offset by diversified biz portfolio Up trending Float glass contribute 45% of the company product portfolio. Investors remain cautious on the margin sustainability given topping property sales price. Cur. PE: 9.81 Although float glass production capacity is expected to up from 3.5M to 4.5M daily Forward PE: 10.30 melting tones due to three float glass production lines expected to be deployed in Cur. EPS:HKCents 50.36 YingKou & Deyang under capacity surplus environment, the dropping margin is Forward EPS 47.96 expected thanks to struggling float glass segment and high-yield solar glass segment Cur. EV/EBITDA: 11.83 spin off but will be partially offset by the strong automobile and construction glass and the effective inventory mgt system. Mgt tried to diversify the product portfolio, reduce Forward EV/EBITDA: 13.12 reliant on automobile glass products. I foresee automobile glass will record Cur. HSI: 23,548 conservative 9% growth and staying above 43% high gross margin in FY2014 Relative to HSI: 3m -30.65% considered on average YoY 6% growth in China automobile production in 4M2014 Cur. HSCEI: 10,489 according to CAAM and after considering XYG and PGW partnership extension as Relative to HSCEI: 3m -30.57% well as automobile insurance company corp. Cur. MSCI Pac.: 585 Remarkable inventory management improvement Relative to MSCIPac.: -31.68% Average inventory turnover day decrease from 72 to 65 days reflect improving inventory mgt, outer perform peer group average of 85 days. AR turnover days also recorded 80 days in FY2013, remarkable improvement from 91 days in FY2012 and outer perform historical average of 85 days. With mgt. effort to spread the credit sale risk, the top 5 customers' contribution is lowered to 16.6% from 22.8% under the revenue growth of 20.4%. Reiterate "Buy" with TP 5.40, which implies 10.3 and 13.12 forward P/E and EV/EBITDA in FY2014 respectively Share Price catalyst:1) Glass price rebound especially in 3rd peak season 2) Diversified existing glass products portfolio and Ultra-thin electronic glass business opportunities 3) Inventory turnover decrease from 72 to healthy 65 days reflect a good sign of production and transportation scheduling. 4) Attractive valuation after ~25% share price correction. Key Risk:1) cooling property market and falling new residential buildings construction 2) Float glass production overcapacity. 3) capital expenditure on waste management 4) Sluggish glass price due to weak local demand and export orders. P&L Est. vs. Consensus HK'M FY2013 FY2014e FY2015e FY2016e Revenue Est. Street Consensus Diff % Revenue 9,936 10,630 12,348 14,241 FY2014e 10,630 11,900 -10.67 Gross Profit 3,137 3,219 4,231 4,814 FY2015e 12,348 14,100 -12.42 EBIT adj, 2,350 2,135 2,600 3,331 Source: Bloomberg, Analyst Est. EBITDA adj. 2,979 2,776 3,302 4,146 Net Profit adj. 1,930 1,838 2,254 2,760 EPS Est. Street Consensus Diff % EPS(HKcents) 50.36 47.96 58.81 72.03 FY2014e 47.96 57.00 -15.86 DPS(HKcents) 0.43 0.18 0.22 0.30 FY2015e 58.81 68.00 -13.51 Key Ratio Source: Bloomberg, Analyst Est. PE x 9.81 10.30 8.40 6.86 PB x 1.55 1.41 1.29 1.15 EV/EBITDA x 11.83 13.12 11.19 9.23 ROIC % 9.50 8.44 10.04 11.46 Source: Company Reports, Analyst Est. 1 All Right Reserved by Mike Kwok Mike Kwok Email: [email protected] Mike The Analyst Phone Number: (852) - 95035885 Value Investing - Asia Focus China glass price index recorded significant drop to 850 (cumulative drop of ~23% in 1H2014) mainly due to delayed construction and intense waterfall season. US unstable weather also pressured glass export rate, trimming the OP as the automobile segment also rely on US autos parts demand. My view on 2H2014 stay positive as foreign demand restore and construction resume will drive glass price rebound, leading to Renminbi weakened against Hong Kong dollar Source: boli.cn contraction of OP & NP margin drop. Recent price weakness reflected the 2.84% depreciation of RMB against HKD since XYG is more exposed to RMB denominated activities. I foresee RMB continue down to stimulate export for 7% GDP target. I am bullish on the demand of autos glass biz as they are mostly foreign buyers, which mitigate some foreign FOREX rate risk. New opportunities from ultra-thin electronic glass Ultra-thin electronic glass production line in Wuhu industrial zone is expected to be commenced in FY2014. The market concentration is high and dominated by JP/TW manufacturers regarding the technology and quality. Despite the segment face fierce competition from AGC and Corning as per experienced by Luoyang glass (1108:HK) and CNBM (3323:HK) similarly, I expect mid-high end ultra-thin electronic glass is able to bring the company into new era in FY2015-16 and hedge float glass downside demand risk under the impose of import duties from 4 to 6% to Japan. No operation statistics are disclosed by XYG. Current Anhui production line focused on low-priced thicker >0.7mm glass, suppressing GP margin. I believe XYG is able to convert production to high-quality 0.55mm glass, creating new business opportunities and share price catalyst. However, there will be no surprise in FY2014 considered its economy of scale and unproven production efficiency. Source: Company, Analyst Est. Business Segment Estimates Segment FY2013 YoY chg % FY2014e YoY chg % FY2015e YoY chg % FY2015e YoY chg % Float glass 4,494 18.88 4,224 -6.01 4,647 10.01 5,235 12.65 Contribution % 45 1.84 43 -2.72 47 4.26 53 5.92 Autos glass 3,287 6.80 3,606 9.70 3,917 8.62 4,278 9.22 Contribution % 33 -2.08 36 3.21 39 3.13 43 3.63 Construction glass 2,154 36.83 2,800 29.99 3,784 35.14 4,728 24.95 Contribution % 22 0.24 28 6.50 38 9.90 48 9.50 Total 9,935 20.50 10,630 7.00 12,348 16.16 14,241 15.33 Source: Company, Analyst Est. Profit warning inline with sensitive analysis Regional natural gas price differentiate players Based on my sensitivity analysis on operation profit margin Management advised all factories are operated by natural gas, and china glass price index, I foresee the 1H2014 OP margin where the gas source is unaffected by the recent gas price and NP margin will be down by 4.1% and 2.2% thanks to hike. I assume the natural gas price hike in our conservative weakening float glass price and initial YingKou and Deyang base scenario under demand-pull inflation and strict float glass operation lost, result in 21%NP decline and thus government policy on emission standard. I has already factored inline with the profit warning of around 25% downslide in in the GP margin drop and believed GP to down by 1.29% in 1H2014. However, I believe XYG is capable to pass through FY2014. Besides, with industry differentiated price strategy and the hard time due to its diversified glass products and new most factories are using natural gas as their energy input, production lines are likely to breakeven in 1H2015. I also expect peers will also raise product price to prevent from profit foresee XYG will also be the ultimate beneficiary given the margin lost. industry consolidation and overall capacity reduction, thus I think XYG is the long term winner with its defensive strategy. 2 All Right Reserved by Mike Kwok Mike Kwok Email: [email protected] Mike The Analyst Phone Number: (852) - 95035885 Value Investing - Asia Focus Production surplus put low-quality glass manufacturers in risk According to China boli, glass inventory is still stayed at high-level 3.2M tones and recorded YoY of 17%. 10 production lines are being ignited in 1H2014, accumulated 8150 tones daily melting capacity. Flat glass capacity surge to 338M till 5M2014 and 7-8 production lines are expected to be deployed in 2H2014. Glass price is expected to down to digest the inventories. Low-quality float glass over-capacity is extremely severe result in some enterprises recorded lost. My scenario depicts that this will speed up the elimination of lagging production capacity, lead to long term production shut down for glass manufacturers dragging on/below variable cost given low profit margin. Xinyi Glass focus on high-quality float glass, which is less impacted under this scenario.
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