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Xinyi Glass [0868.HK] China Construction Sector - 1H 2016 Results Beat Expectations

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Xinyi Glass [0868.HK] China Construction Sector - 1H 2016 Results Beat Expectations August 3, 2016 Xinyi Glass [0868.HK] China Construction Sector - 1H 2016 results beat expectations. Improvement continues in 2H. Xinyi Glass (XYG) reported decent 1H 2016 results, beating market expectations. The upside surprise, in Building Materials our view, came mainly from higher-than-expected gross margin improvement, driven mainly by a stronger- than-expected recovery in the float glass segment. XYG’s top-line growth in 1H 2016 was driven mainly by a 22.7% YoY increase in sales of float glass products. The blended gross margin was 34.7% in 1H 2016, up from 26.7% in 1H 2015 and the highest since 2H 2011. Management released positive guidance on the outlook for the Company’s float glass and construction glass divisions. Management believes that the gross BUY margin will be at least stable in 2H 2016 despite concern about China’s economic growth. The price compe- tition in the construction glass segment is expected to come to an end, and XYG aims to raise its average selling price after industry consolidation in 2H 2016. Growth of the construction glass segment is expected Close: HK$6.04 (Aug 1, 2016) to pick up in 2H 2016. With resilient global aftermarket auto glass demand, the wide adoption of Low-E glass, and capacity rationalization in the float glass industry in China, we expect XYG to post solid top- and bottom-line growth in 2016-17E. XYG management also mentioned that the Company is looking for M&A Target Price: HK$7.35 (+21.7%) opportunities as it is difficult to get quota for installation of new production lines. The projected rise in con- struction glass prices, a further drop in raw material costs and a new expansion plan by both XYG and Xinyi Solar (XYS) are share price catalysts. The XYG share price may come under pressure because of post- results profit-taking, which in our view would offer a good buying opportunity for investors. XYG is now trading at 8.2x 2016 PER. With its undemanding valuation, we maintain the BUY call on XYG with a higher Share Price Performance target price of HK$7.35 (based on 10x 2016E PER, lower than its historical average and the average of its (HK$) (HK$ million) listed peers). 8 400 Investment Highlights 6 300 1H 2016 results highlights. XYG’s net profit increased 44.9% YoY to HK$1,369.1m in 1H 2016, 4 200 which is at the high end of the range announced in the profit alert in mid-Jun 2016. XYG booked a HK$143.9m gain on the dilution of shares of an associate (XYS) in 1H 2015. Excluding the impact of the dilution gain, the improvement in core operating performance was even better than headline fig- 2 100 ures suggest. XYG’s turnover reached HK$5,885.0m in 1H 2016, up 11.4% YoY from HK$5,282.8m in 1H 2015. The Company’s top-line growth in 1H 2016 was driven mainly by a 22.7% YoY increase 0 0 in sales of float glass products. Construction glass and automobile glass reported sales growth of Aug15 Oct15 Dec15 Feb16 Apr16 Jun16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) 1.1% and 4.9% respectively in 1H 2016. Slow growth in the construction glass segment led XYG to cut prices to gain market share. Profitability in the three divisions showed YoY improvement in 1H Market Cap US$3,021m 2016. The gross profit margins for float glass, construction glass and automobile glass were 22.3%, 39.0% and 48.7% respectively in 1H 2016, up from 8.7%, 31.7% and 44.1% in 1H 2015. The blended Shares Outstanding 3,880.9m gross margin was 34.7% in 1H 2016, up from 26.7% in 1H 2015 and the highest since 2H 2011. Low- er raw material prices and a better product mix are the major reasons for the significant improvement Pricewaterhouse- in the operating performance of the float glass segment. The Company’s 1H 2016 net profit account- Auditor ed for 56.1% of the market consensus for FY 2016. With the 2H usually stronger than the 1H for seasonal reasons and the improving supply/demand dynamic of the float glass sector in China, we see upside potential to the consensus forecast for 2016. XYG proposed an interim dividend of Free Float 45.4% HK$0.17 in 1H 2016, up from HK$0.095 in 1H 2015. 52W range HK$3.16-6.04 Positive guidance on the float glass and construction glass segments. Management reiterated its positive view on the outlook for float glass. Raw material prices, especially for soda ash, are at a 3M average daily T/O US$6.8m low level, and the float glass average selling price remains stable. Management believes that the Major Shareholder Mr Lee Yin Yee gross margin of the float glass division will remain at least stable HoH in 2H 2016. XYG management also highlighted that it is difficult to get permission to install new float glass production in China, and (20.3%) the Company is looking for M&A opportunities in China. This confirms our view that the float glass industry will continue to consolidate, and the leading players, such as XYG, will benefit. XYG manage- ment highlighted that the price competition in the construction glass industry will end, and XYG aims to raise its average selling price. Construction glass sales are expected to pick up in 2H 2016. Mark Po, CFA — Senior Analyst Upward earnings adjustment. We raised our net profit forecasts for 2016 and 2017 by 22.4% and (852) 3698-6318 21.2%, respectively. The upward earnings adjustment is due to a 5.0ppt and 5.4ppt upward revision in blended gross margins for 2016 and 2017, respectively. There is no major change in our forecasts for [email protected] XYS, so the earnings upgrade is related more to improvement in XYG’s operating performance. Wong Chi Man, CFA — Head of Research Key Financials (in HKDm) 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E Revenue 9,936.1 10,861.1 11,460.3 12,771.0 13,965.3 Change (YoY %) 17.8 9.3 5.5 11.4 9.4 (852) 3698-6317 Gross Profit 3,137.0 2,733.4 3,132.7 4,350.4 4,761.3 Gross Margin % 31.6 25.2 27.3 34.1 34.1 Net Profit 3,521.9 1,364.3 2,111.9 2,853.7 3,193.2 Net Margin % 35.4 12.6 18.4 22.3 22.9 [email protected] EPS (Basic) 0.89 0.35 0.54 0.74 0.82 Change (YoY %) 189.9 (61.3) 54.8 37.0 11.9 DPS $0.240 $0.150 $0.265 $0.363 $0.406 ROE (%) 31.8 11.1 16.9 21.0 21.0 Dividend Yield (%) 3.97 2.48 4.39 6.01 6.73 PER (x) 6.7 17.4 11.3 8.2 7.3 PBR (x) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 FCF Yield (%) 1.39% -0.77% 4.42% 5.98% 7.54% Capex (m) (3,752.3) (1,729.0) (1,967.0) (1,700.0) (1,500.0) Free cash flow per share 0.1 (0.0) 0.3 0.4 0.5 Net Gearing (%) 33.6 42.0 37.2 34.4 29.4 Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research 1 Figure 1: Results highlights Results Highlights (HKD m) 1H 2014 2H 2014 1H 2015 2H 2015 1H 2016 2H 2016E Revenue 5,034 5,827 5,283 6,177 5,885 6,886 Cost of sales and services (3,697) (4,430) (3,873) (4,455) (3,844) (4,577) Gross profit 1,337 1,397 1,410 1,723 2,041 2,309 Other income and other gains and losses 247 152 287 307 43 92 Distribution and selling expenses (268) (340) (312) (367) (351) (406) Administrative expenses (472) (558) (441) (494) (533) (572) Finance costs (25) (14) (26) (24) (44) (23) JV & Associates 57 80 161 157 312 382 Profit before tax 876 716 1,079 1,301 1,468 1,782 Income tax expense (114) (114) (138) (128) (202) (239) MI (0) (0) (2) (0) (0) (184) Profit for the period 762 602 939 1,173 1,265 1,359 Owners of the Company 762 602 941 1,173 1,266 1,543 Gross margin (%) 26.6 24.0 26.7 27.9 34.7 33.5 Operating margin (%) 17.9 12.5 20.9 21.4 25.7 26.2 Net Margin (%) 15.1 10.3 17.8 19.0 21.5 22.4 Turnover by products (HKDm) Automobile glass 1,781 1,813 1,897 1,890 1,990 2,072 Construction glass 1,079 1,477 1,206 1,445 1,220 1,644 Float glass 2,175 2,538 2,180 2,843 2,675 3,170 Gross margin by products (%) Automobile glass 42.1 41.5 44.1 44.6 48.7 47.4 Construction glass 37.0 34.1 31.7 35.6 39.0 38.7 Float glass 8.6 5.6 8.7 12.9 22.3 21.8 Source: Company, CGIS Research Figure 2: Key assumptions for XYG 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Turnover (HKDm) Automobile glass 3,077.8 3,287.2 3,593.2 3,786.6 4,062.1 4,357.7 Construction glass 1,574.6 2,154.5 2,555.5 2,651.5 2,863.6 3,285.9 Float glass 3,780.6 4,494.3 4,712.4 5,022.2 5,845.3 6,321.7 Total 8,433.0 9,936.1 10,861.1 11,460.3 12,771.0 13,965.3 YoY Change (%) Automobile glass 6.8 9.3 5.4 7.3 7.3 Construction glass 36.8 18.6 3.8 8.0 14.7 Float glass 18.9 4.9 6.6 16.4 8.2 Total 17.8 9.3 5.5 11.4 9.4 Volume Automobile (piece) 12,110.0 12,889.0 13,582.8 14,571.1 15,631.3 Construction(sqm) 16,363.0 19,380.0 20,107.5 22,620.9 25,448.4 Float glass (tonne) 2,927.0 3,510.0 3,856.8 4,358.1 4,576.0 YoY Change (%) Automobile (piece) 6.4 5.4 7.3 7.3 Construction(sqm) 18.4 3.8 12.5 12.5 Float glass (tonne) 19.9 9.9 13.0 5.0 ASP Automobile (HKD/piece) 271.4 278.8 278.8 278.8 278.8 Construction (HKD per sqm) 131.7 131.9 131.9 126.6 129.1 Float glass (HKD per tone) 1,535.5 1,342.6 1,302.2 1,341.2 1,381.5 YoY Change (%) Automobile (HKD/piece) 2.7 0.0 0 0 Construction (HKD per sqm) 0.1 0 (4.0) 2.0 Float glass (HKD per tone) (12.6) (3.0) 3.0 3.0 Gross margin (%) Automobile glass 42.8 43.3 41.8 44.3 48.0 48.0 Construction glass 37.2 39.9 35.3 33.9 38.9 38.9 Float glass 8.6 19.0 7.0 11.1 22.0 22.0 Blended 26.4 31.6 25.2 27.3 34.1 34.1 Net margin (%) 14.1 35.4 12.6 18.4 22.3 22.9 Cost (HKDm) S,G&A (1,056.7) (1,250.9) (1,638.0) (1,614.5) (1,863.1) (2,037.3) Financial Expenses (57.3) (59.7) (38.1) (50.2) (45.4) (66.9) YoY Change (%) S,G&A 18.4 30.9 (1.4) 15.4 9.4 Financial Expenses 4.2 (36.2) 32.0 (9.5) 47.2 CAPEX (HKDm) 1,435.3 3,752.3 1,729.0 1,967.0 1,700.0 1,500.0 Net Gearing (%) 35.8 33.6 42.0 37.2 34.4 29.4 Source: Company, CGIS Research 2 Figure 3: Earnings projection Income Statement (HKDm) FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016F FY2017F Cash Flow Statement (HKDm) FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016F FY2017F Revenue 9,936 10,861 11,460 12,771 13,965 Net Income 3,282 1,227 1,796 2,344 2,534 Growth yoy% 17.8% 9.3% 5.5% 11.4% 9.4% Depreciation & Amort.
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