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Xinyi Glass Initiate at Buy: Vertically Integrated Float Glass Play; Growth with Low Valuation

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Xinyi Glass Initiate at Buy: Vertically Integrated Float Glass Play; Growth with Low Valuation Xinyi Glass Initiate at Buy: Vertically integrated float glass play; Growth with low valuation Initiating Coverage: BUY | PO: 10.00 HKD | Price: 7.68 HKD Equity | 03 November 2017 Initiate at Buy with HK$10 PO; Attractive Valuation We initiate coverage on Xinyi Glass (XYG) with a Buy rating and PO of HK$10, based on David Ching, CFA >> Research Analyst SOTP with 10x FY18E P/E on its core business and its stake in Xinyi Solar using Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 3905 BofAML’s valuation. XYG is China’s No.1 float glass producer with 10% market share and [email protected] No.2 in low-emissivity (low-e) construction glass and the world’s largest supplier of Ming Hsun Lee, CFA >> automobile aftermarket glass (ARG) with 25% market share. We have XYG as our top Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) pick in the China glass sector given our positive view on float glass industry, its focus on [email protected] higher value-add products (>30%), healthy b/s (33% net gearing), and 18-20% 2017-20E Matty Zhao >> earnings growth. XYG trades at just 6.7x our 18E P/E with 27% ROE and 7.4% div yield. Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) [email protected] Key beneficiary of float glass supply-demand improvement We are positive on the supply/demand dynamics of the float glass industry given the upcoming cold-repair cycle in 2018-19E (c.13% of capacity to go offline for 9-12 months), which will likely reduce the effective capacity by c.5%. The float glass industry Stock Data is also likely to enter another round of consolidation– we expect effective capacity to remain flat at 46mntpa while demand is likely to grow at 2% pa until 2020. Price 7.68 HKD Price Objective 10.00 HKD Volume growth, driven by strategic expansion overseas Date Established 3-Nov-2017 XYG plans to increase its float glass capacity by 50% by 2020E, led by growth overseas Investment Opinion C-1-7 in Malaysia/Canada. We expect GP% to improve from 36% in 2016 to 38% in 2020E – 52-Week Range 5.31 HKD-8.52 HKD Malaysia GP margin is c.10ppt higher vs domestic, thanks to cheaper gas /higher ASP. Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 3,945 USD / 4,007.3 With expansion in Canada, XYG could gain share in the low-e and ARG markets in the US. Market Value (mn) 30,776 HKD Potential margin improvement from soda ash cost decline Average Daily Value (mn) 10.42 USD XYG uses gas as its major fuel, sourced mostly directly from upstream suppliers at a Free Float 45.8% discount to benchmark non-residential prices. We expect gas price to decline long term BofAML Ticker / Exchange XYIGF / HKG as the govt is targeting to encourage gas consumption. We also highlight XYG has Bloomberg / Reuters 868 HK / 0868.HK secured 30% of its 2018E soda ash requirement from overseas supplier at c.RMB1,700/t ROE (2017E) 26.8% (20% lower vs. spot). Risks:large hike in soda ash/ gas px; large drop in property demand Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2016A) 37.1% Estimates (Dec) (HK$) 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Net Income (Adjusted - mn) 2,141 3,242 3,787 4,528 5,428 EPS 0.524 0.805 0.947 1.13 1.36 EPS Change (YoY) 55.1% 53.5% 17.7% 19.5% 19.9% Dividend / Share 0.263 0.418 0.473 0.566 0.679 Free Cash Flow / Share 0.136 0.572 0.391 0.456 0.713 [email protected] Valuation (Dec) 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E P/E 14.65x 9.54x 8.11x 6.78x 5.66x Dividend Yield 3.43% 5.44% 6.17% 7.37% 8.84% EV / EBITDA* 12.46x 8.59x 7.44x 6.23x 5.21x Free Cash Flow Yield* 1.73% 7.21% 5.08% 5.93% 9.27% * For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 37. This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Merrill Lynch. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of MLPF&S and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take responsibility for this report in particular jurisdictions. BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could Unauthorized redistributionofthisreport isprohibited.Thisreport is intendedfor affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 38 to 40. Analyst Certification on page 35. Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 35. 11808131 Timestamp: 02 November 2017 04:30PM EDT SM iQprofile Xinyi Glass Company Sector Building Materials Key Income Statement Data (Dec) 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E (HK$ Millions) Sales 11,460 12,848 15,016 17,908 20,552 Company Description Gross Profit 3,133 4,659 5,393 6,468 7,674 Xinyi Glass (XYG) is the largest float glass Sell General & Admin Expense (1,615) (1,822) (2,087) (2,507) (2,877) Operating Profit 2,113 3,338 3,892 4,659 5,598 manufacturer in China with c.5mnt of capacity as Net Interest & Other Income (50) (77) (30) (7) 19 at 2016. It produces and distributes automobile Associates 317 563 645 736 841 glass, energy saving construction glass and other Pretax Income 2,380 3,823 4,506 5,387 6,458 glass products. It is the largest automobile glass Tax (expense) / Benefit (266) (607) (716) (856) (1,026) exporter in China in the aftermarket sector (20% Net Income (Adjusted) 2,141 3,242 3,787 4,528 5,428 Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,031 3,993 3,999 3,999 3,999 global market share) and one of the leaders in Key Cash Flow Statement Data architectural low-emission (low-E) glass in China. Net Income 2,113 3,213 3,787 4,528 5,428 XYG has c.29.5% stake in Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 Depreciation & Amortization 753 822 911 1,078 1,257 HK), which is the largest solar-glass manufacturer Change in Working Capital 259 327 (167) (292) (319) in China Deferred Taxation Charge NA NA NA NA NA Other Adjustments, Net (488) (798) 34 11 (14) Cash Flow from Operations 2,637 3,565 4,565 5,325 6,352 Investment Rationale Capital Expenditure (2,105) (1,346) (3,000) (3,500) (3,500) (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments 317 (44) (55) (59) (62) We rate Xinyi Glass a buy given our positive view Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) 267 (889) 69 71 93 on the float glass industry, its focus on higher Cash Flow from Investing (1,520) (2,280) (2,986) (3,487) (3,469) value-add products (>30% of total), healthy b/s Shares Issue / (Repurchase) (607) (1,467) 0 0 0 Cost of Dividends Paid (902) (608) (1,387) (895) 0 (33% net gearing), and 18-20% 2017-20E earnings Cash Flow from Financing (625) 225 (1,486) (974) (74) growth, driven by overseas capacity expansion. Free Cash Flow 532 2,219 1,565 1,825 2,852 Net Debt 4,730 4,911 4,819 3,956 1,147 Change in Net Debt (451) 181 (92) (863) (2,809) Key Balance Sheet Data Property, Plant & Equipment 11,971 11,831 13,416 14,473 14,005 Other Non-Current Assets 4,455 5,655 5,708 5,763 5,822 Stock Data Trade Receivables 2,381 2,377 2,725 3,219 3,761 Price to Book Value 2.0x Cash & Equivalents 1,298 2,763 2,855 3,718 6,528 Other Current Assets 1,316 1,396 1,552 1,827 2,127 Total Assets 21,422 24,022 26,255 29,001 32,243 Long-Term Debt 3,514 4,509 4,509 4,509 4,509 Other Non-Current Liabilities 223 266 266 266 266 Short-Term Debt 2,514 3,165 3,165 3,165 3,165 Other Current Liabilities 2,445 2,835 3,171 3,649 4,172 Total Liabilities 8,696 10,775 11,111 11,589 12,113 Total Equity 12,726 13,247 15,144 17,411 20,130 Total Equity & Liabilities 21,422 24,022 26,255 29,001 32,243 iQmethod SM - Bus Performance* Return On Capital Employed 10.1% 14.2% 15.1% 16.4% 17.9% Return On Equity 17.1% 25.0% 26.8% 27.9% 29.0% Operating Margin 18.4% 26.0% 25.9% 26.0% 27.2% EBITDA Margin 25.0% 32.4% 32.0% 32.0% 33.4% iQmethod SM - Quality of Earnings* Cash Realization Ratio 1.2x 1.1x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x Asset Replacement Ratio 2.8x 1.6x 3.3x 3.2x 2.8x Tax Rate (Reported) 11.2% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9% Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio 37.2% 37.1% 31.8% 22.7% 5.7% Interest Cover 23.4x 26.1x 39.1x NM NM Key Metrics SM * For full definitions of iQmethod measures, see page 37. 2 Xinyi Glass | 03 November 2017 Key Investment Charts Exhibit 1: Xinyi Glass - Leadership position in different segments Exhibit 2: Xinyi Glass Revenue Breakdown by Segment Summary – most Segment Ranking Market share exposed to float glass industry supply/ demand dynamics improvement Float Glass China - No.
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