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Hong Kong Xinyi Glass

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Hong Kong Xinyi Glass Hong Kong 8 May 2012 Company Update HOLD (unchanged) Xinyi Glass Capital Raising to Fund CAPEX Share price: HKD4.78 Target price: HKD4.74 Private placement to a single investor. On 3 May 2012, Xinyi announced a private placement involving 83m new shares (2.2% of its enlarged capital) issued at HKD4.69, as well as HKD776m of five-year Alex YEUNG CBs convertible into 129m shares (3.3% of its enlarged capital) at a [email protected] price of HKD6.00 to Och-Ziff. The exercise prices of the new shares (852) 2268 0636 and CBs are at a 11.2% discount and 13.6% premium to the closing price on 2 May respectively. There is no lock-up agreement pertaining to the shares placed to Och-Ziff. Xinyi could raise a total of HKD1,143m. Raising CAPEX budget. Xinyi has raised its FY12F CAPEX guidance Stock Information from HKD800m to HKD1,300m, along with a plan to invest around Description: Xinyi Glass is a leading glass manufacturer in China, specializing in the production of automotive glass, HKD500m (44% of net proceeds) to expand its production capacity in construction glass, float glass and solar glass. different segments: 1) establishment of a new production base in Tianjin to export aftermarket auto glass, with a production capacity of Ticker: 868 HK 3m pieces per year by mid-FY13F; 2) construction of an insulating glass Shares Issued (m): 3,687 line (construction glass-related) with new capacity to contribute in Market Cap (USDm): 2,270 FY13F; 3) resumption of a solar glass production line that had been 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USDm): 12 HSI: 20,536 suspended for maintenance purposes and expansion of its downstream Free Float (%): 45.4 solar glass capacity. Xinyi will also repay part of its bank borrowings Major Shareholders: % with the rest of the net proceeds. Chairman Lee Yin Yee 21.41 Tung Ching Sai 9.18 Business updates. Management reveals that its auto glass and Tung Ching Bor 8.83 construction glass businesses look healthy as usual. Solar glass has Lee Sing Din 8.35 seen signs of recovery with gross margins jumping from 10% in Jan 2012 to above 30% in Apr 2012, benefiting from a greater contribution Key Indicators from the value-added solar glass products. However, the gross margins ROE – annualised (%) 16.8 for float glass are still low at 10%, despite the rebound of prices 15% Net debt (HKDm): 3,973 NTA/shr (HKD): 2.44 since Feb 2012. We believe that the continuous retreat of the soda ash Interest cover (x): 52.6 price (20% of COGS) will boost Xinyi’s profitability in FY12F. Fair valuation. We adjust our FY12F/13F earnings by -3.5%/1.5% to Historical Chart factor in the new capacity and shares issuance. Although we believe 10.0 that the share price already reflects the solar glass recovery, we are still 9.0 waiting for a more sustainable recovery of float glass margins. Our TP 8.0 7.0 of HKD4.74 is based on 12x FY12F PER. Maintain HOLD. 6.0 5.0 Xinyi Glass – Summary Earnings Table 4.0 3.0 FYE Dec (HKDm) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2.0 Revenue 6,364 8,227 9,817 11,470 1.0 EBITDA 2,198 1,993 2,365 2,896 0.0 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Recurring Net Profit 1,534 1,265 1,490 1,892 Recurring Basic EPS (HKD) 0.43 0.35 0.40 0.50 PRICE PRICE REL. TO HANG SENG INDEX EPS growth (%) 77.1 (19.0) 12.4 27.0 Source: Bloomberg DPS (HKD) 0.21 0.16 0.18 0.23 Adjusted PER (x) 11.0 13.6 12.1 9.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 10.6 8.8 7.1 Performance: Div Yield (%) 4.4 3.3 3.7 4.7 52-week High/Low HKD9.50/HKD2.75 P/BV (x) 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.8 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Net Gearing (%) 31.8 42.3 43.2 35.9 Absolute (%) 1.9 (4.6) (1.4) (48.5) 7.2 ROE (%) 26.2 16.8 16.8 19.5 Relative (%) 2.2 (2.3) (5.8) (37.2) (4.2) ROA (%) 16.5 9.6 9.1 10.3 Consensus Net Profit (HKDm) N/A N/A 1,601 1,965 Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited Background of Och-Ziff Capital Management. Founded in 1994, Och-Ziff is a renowned US hedge fund that manages approximately USD30b in assets as of 1 May 2012. According to the HKEx filings, Och-Ziff has holdings in AV Concept (595 HK), China New Town Development (1278 HK), CST Mining (985 HK), Paul Y Engineering (577 HK) and PYI Corporation (498 HK). Och-Ziff would become a cornerstone investor of Xinyi Solar. Separately, Xinyi also issued 98m warrants to Och-Ziff with an option to subscribe an interest of up to 5.5% interest in Xinyi Solar at a price of HKD2.38. Xinyi would use the additional capital of HKD233m raised from Och-Ziff to repay an existing shareholder’s loan. Essentially, Xinyi Solar would have succeeded in locking in a significant investment fund as a cornerstone investor, thus facilitating its spin-off issue. Figure 1: Key assumptions FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13F Revenue (HKDm) Automobile glass 2,378.8 2,902.8 3,502.5 4,016.8 Construction glass 926.0 1,132.9 1,564.9 1,889.7 Float glass 1,981.8 2,957.8 3,114.8 3,597.6 Solar glass 1,077.8 1,233.2 1,634.9 1,966.3 Total 6,364.3 8,226.7 9,817.1 11,470.3 Gross margin (%) Automobile glass 39.4 40.2 41.0 38.0 Construction glass 38.0 36.5 40.0 39.0 Float glass 35.6 11.2 15.0 23.0 Solar glass 51.9 35.7 24.0 27.0 Total 40.1 28.6 29.8 31.6 Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities estimates Figure 2: Earnings revision New Old Change (%) HKDm FY12F FY13F FY12F FY13F FY12F FY13F Revenue 9,817.1 11,470.3 9,447.1 10,805.7 3.9 6.2 Operating profit 1,871.2 2,394.4 1,844.9 2,247.0 1.4 6.6 Net profit 1,490.0 1,892.3 1,473.8 1,779.2 1.1 6.4 EPS 0.40 0.50 0.41 0.49 (3.5) 1.5 Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities estimates Figure 3: Soda Ash price (CNY per tonne) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Feb 05 Dec 05 Oct 06 Aug 07 Jun 08 Apr 09 Feb 10 Dec 10 Oct 11 Source: Bloomberg, Kim Eng Securities Figure 4: Valuation comparison with peers (Share price as of 7 May 2012) Latest price Mkt cap PER (x) PBR (x) Forward Company name Ticker (Lcl ccy) (HKDm) FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 Div yield (%) ROA (%) ROE (%) Xinyi Glass 868 HK 4.78 17,622.9 11.2 9.1 1.9 1.7 4.2 9.9 18.3 China Glass 3300 HK 1.15 1,782.7 22.8 3.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 (2.6)(6.3) CSG Holding 000012 CH 9.95 20,658.4 16.5 12.5 2.6 2.2 1.4 N/A 15.1 Jinjing Science 600586 CH 5.00 8,763.8 28.4 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Fuyao Group Glass 600660 CH 8.85 21,838.7 9.8 8.0 2.4 2.0 4.9 N/A 24.7 Shanghai Yaohua 600819 CH 7.86 6,039.7 39.3 19.7 2.6 2.3 0.3 N/A 6.5 Asahi Glass 5201 JP 594.00 68,450.7 9.3 8.6 0.8 0.7 4.4 4.7 8.9 Nippon Electric Glass 5214 JP 571.00 27,591.7 15.0 12.9 0.6 0.6 2.7 3.8 4.8 Corning GLW US 13.60 160,214.3 10.0 8.9 0.9 0.9 2.1 7.0 9.7 Peers average 18.0 11.2 1.5 1.4 2.6 4.5 10.2 Source: Bloomberg, Kim Eng Securities 8 May 2012 Page 2 of 6 Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET FYE Dec (HKDm) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F FYE Dec (HKDm) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F Revenue 6,364 8,227 9,817 11,470 Fixed Assets 7,380 10,952 11,777 12,295 Gross Profit 2,555 2,354 2,922 3,622 Other LT Assets 637 359 359 359 EBITDA 2,198 1,993 2,365 2,896 Cash/ST Investments 640 713 1,303 1,895 Depreciation & Amortisation (339) (445) (494) (501) Other Current Assets 2,359 3,322 3,964 4,631 Operating Profit (EBIT) 1,860 1,548 1,871 2,394 Total Assets 11,016 15,346 17,403 19,179 Interest (Exp)/Inc (4) (25) (37) (36) Associates 1 3 4 5 ST Debt 471 1,105 1,200 1,500 One-offs 37 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 1,657 2,313 2,732 3,168 Pre-Tax Profit 1,893 1,526 1,838 2,364 LT Debt 2,254 3,214 4,076 4,076 Tax (321) (263) (349) (473) Other LT Liabilities 79 189 189 189 Minority Interest (1) 1 1 1 Minority Interest 20 18 20 20 Net Profit 1,571 1,265 1,490 1,892 Shareholders' Equity 6,536 8,508 9,187 10,227 Recurring Net Profit 1,534 1,265 1,490 1,892 Total Liabilities-Capital 11,016 15,346 17,403 19,179 Revenue Growth (%) 60.8 29.3 19.3 16.8 Share Capital (m) 3,536 3,598 3,770 3,770 EBITDA Growth (%) 86.2 (9.3) 18.6 22.5 Gross Debt/(Cash) 2,724 4,319 5,276 5,576 EBIT Growth (%) 102.7 (16.7) 20.9 28.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 2,084 3,606 3,973 3,681 Net Profit Growth (%) 103.1 (19.5) 17.8 27.0 Working Capital 871 617 1,335 1,858 Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 78.7 (17.6) 17.8 27.0 Tax Rate % 16.9 17.2 19.0 20.0 CASH FLOW RATES & RATIOS FYE Dec (HKDm) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F FYE Dec 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F Profit before taxation 1,893 1,526 1,838 2,364 Gross Profit Margin (%) 40.1 28.6 29.8 31.6 Depreciation & Amortisation 339 445 494 501 EBITDA Margin (%) 34.5 24.2 24.1 25.2 Net interest receipts/(payments) 4 25 37 36 Op.
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