World Mobility at the End of the Twentieth Century and Its Sustainability

DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE

world mobility at the end of the twentieth century and its sustainability prepared for the Sustainable Mobility Working Group of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Charles River Associated Incorporated table of contents one ● introduction

KINDS OF SUSTAINABILITY 1-2 But Some Mobility is Desired for its Own Sake 1-3 Mobility Shapes and is Shaped by Our Patterns of Settlement 1-3 feature box •Why Public Transport Loses Market Share — A Primer on the Power of Desirable Mobility Characteristics 1-4 Mobility 2001 — Taking the Pulse 1-5 MOBILITY AND ITS IMPORTANCE 1-5 Mobility is Principally a Means of Improving Accessibility 1-5 Mobility Enables Economic Development 1-6 • Figure 1-1. Transit share of motorized travel has generally been decreasing 1-6 Telecommunications and Mobility 1-7 MOBILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY 1-7 Measures to Be Increased 1-7 Access to means of mobility 1-7 • Figure 1-2. Current (1997) levels of mobility in different regions of the world 1-8 • Figure 1-3. Modal share of passenger-kilometers across the world regions (1997) 1-8 Equity in access 1-9 Appropriate mobility infrastructure 1-9 Inexpensive freight transportation 1-9 Measures to Be Reduced 1-9 Congestion 1-9 • Table 1-1. Measures of transportation infrastructure per capita (km/million inhabitants) 1-10 “Conventional” emissions 1-10 • Table 1-2. Emission rates in London (grams/passenger–km) by mode, 1997 1-11 feature box •Ozone — A Complex Pollution “Cocktail” 1-11 Greenhouse gas emissions 1-11 feature box •CO2 Emissions by Sector 1-12 Transportation noise 1-12

• Figure 1-4. Share of worldwide CO2 emissions from the combustion of fuel, by sector — 1998 1-13 Impacts on land, water, and ecosystems 1-13 Disruption of communities 1-14 Transportation-related accidents 1-14 Use of nonrenewable, carbon-based energy 1-14 Transportation-related solid waste 1-15 MOBILITY 2001 — A ROAD MAP 1-15 Chapter 2 — Patterns of Mobility Demand, Technology, and Energy Use 1-15 Chapter 3 — Personal Mobility in the Urbanized Developed World 1-15 Chapter 4 — Personal Mobility in the Developing World 1-16 Chapter 5 — Trends in Intercity Travel 1-16 Chapter 6 — Freight Mobility 1-17 Chapter 7 — Worldwide Mobility and the Challenges to Its Sustainability 1-17 two ● patterns of mobility demand, technology, and energy use

• Figure 2-1. Annual increments of the world population and of the urban population, 1950–2030 2-2 TRENDS IN POPULATION AND URBANIZATION 2-3 Urbanization and its Concentration in the Developing World 2-3 feature box •Medians Don’t Tell the Whole Story 2-3 • Figure 2-2. World population growth, 1950–2030 (billions of people) 2-4 Suburbanization 2-4 • Table 2-1. Population of cities with 10 million inhabitants or more — 1950, 1975, 2000, and 2015 (in millions) 2-5

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PATTERNS OF TRAVEL BEHAVIOR AND DEMAND 2-5 The Effect of Income on Travel Behavior 2-5 • Figure 2-3. More Money, more travel, everywhere 2-6 • Figure 2-4. Distances change, time does not 2-7 Travel Growth: From Walking to Cars to Planes 2-7 • Table 2-2. Growth in passenger-kilometers traveled 2-8 • Figure 2-5. Percentage shares of total passenger-kilometers traveled 2-8 Implications for the Future 2-9 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY 2-9 Some Vehicle Fundamentals 2-9 Historical Perspective 2-10 • Table 2-3. Typical engine and transmission efficiencies 2-10 Current Technology Status 2-10 Sustainability Challenges Posed by the Technologies of Motorization 2-12 Air quality impact of automotive technology 2-12 Global climate change impact of automotive technology 2-12 Challenges posed by vehicle manufacturing processes 2-13 feature box •The Rise and (Partial) Fall of Lead in Gasoline 2-13 feature boxx •Vehicle Emissions Reduction — A Qualified Success 2-14

ENERGY FOR TRANSPORTATION 2-14 Petroleum Supply, Price, and Trends 2-14 • Table 2-4. World production of crude oil 2-15 • Table 2-5. Ex-tax consumer cost of fuels in the United States 2-15 Refining and Quality of Petroleum Transportation Fuels 2-16 • Table 2-6. World oil demand and price, 2020 2-16 • Table 2-7. Recent and projected world transportation fuel demand (million barrels/per day) 2-17 • Table 2-8. World nonpetroleum transportation energy use, 1998 2-17 Nonpetroleum Transportation Energy 2-17 feature box •Developments in Fuel-Cell Technology 2-18 feature box •Petroleum-Like Fuels without Petroleum 2-18

CONCLUSIONS 2-19

three ● personal mobility in the urbanized developed world

TRENDS IN URBAN MOBILITY IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD 3-2 Urban Decentralization and Automobility: Two Mutually Reinforcing Trends 3-2 • Figure 3-1. Indicators of transport use, 1990 3-2 • Figure 3-2. Ownership of passenger cars in OECD countries, 1960–1995 3-3 • Figure 3-3. Use of passenger cars in OECD countries, 1960–1995 3-3 Rising auto ownership and use 3-3 A drive toward the suburbs 3-4 • Table 3-1. The growth of selected metropolitan areas, 1960–1990 3-4 Provision of highway infrastructure 3-5 • Table 3-2. Motorways and road network in developed countries, 1970–1997 3-5 Extent of and prospects for these trends 3-6 The Role of Public Transport 3-6 The extent of public transport in the developed world 3-6 • Table 3-3. Some indicators of public transport system capacity 3-6 Trends in the use of public transport in the developed world 3-7 • Table 3-4. Some indicators of public transport mobility (km/capita/year) 3-7 Public transport operations 3-7 Nonmotorized Transport (NMT) 3-8 • Figure 3-4. Role of nonmotorized transport in selected European cities 3-8

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SUSTAINABILITY CONCERNS 3-9 Road Safety 3-8 Nonrenewable Resource Consumption 3-9 feature box •Integrating Sustainability Concerns into the Transportation Planning Process: The US Experience 3-9 • Table 3-5. Changes in emissions of atmospheric pollutants 3-10 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 3-10 Noxious Emissions 3-10 • Table 3-6. Farebox recovery ratios for selected cities in developed countries 3-11 Vehicular Noise 3-11 Economic Viability of Public Transport 3-11 Creation of Transport-Disadvantaged Social Groups 3-12 feature box •Ambivalent Public Attitudes to the Social Impacts of Private Vehicle Use 3-12 Community Disruption 3-13 Traffic Congestion 3-13 MITIGATING STRATEGIES 3-14 Reducing the Demand for Auto Use 3-14 Transportation Demand Management (TDM) 3-14 feature box •“Foregone Travel” Due to Telecommuting or Home-Based Work 3-14 City center automobile restrictions 3-15 Traffic calming 3-15 The rebirth of the city car 3-15 feature box •Traffic Calming — A US Example 3-15 Car sharing: Separating ownership from use 3-15 feature box •Japanese Experiments with Shared-Use Cars 3-16 Fuel taxes: Pricing automobile use appropriately 3-16 Congestion pricing 3-17 feature box •London Considers Congestion Charges — For Four Decades 3-17 Enhancing the Capacity and Efficiency of the Existing Road and Public Transport Infrastructure 3-18 Expanding the physical capacity of the highway system 3-18 Innovation to increase the operational and economic efficiency of public transport 3-18 feature box •Underground Metroroutes 3-18 Operational highway improvements using intelligent transportation systems technology 3-19 feature box •Real-time Passenger Information Systems 3-19 Improving the Available Transport Options 3-20 Provision of public transport 3-20 Improving nonmotorized transport 3-20 feature box •Transport Deregulation Around the Developed World 3-20 feature box •Advanced Traffic Information Systems in Tokyo, Japan 3-21 feature box •Traffic and Incident Management, Melbourne, Australia 3-21 Providing transport options for those without autos 3-21 Land-Use and Urban Design Strategies 3-22 Public transport-oriented development 3-22 feature box •Portland, Oregon’s Urban Growth Boundary — The Rigors of Land-Use Planning 3-22 feature box •The Public Transport Metropolis 3-23 Spatial location policies: The Dutch ABC policy 3-22 Integrated Approaches 3-23 CONCLUSIONS: A STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY 3-24

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four ● personal mobility in the urbanized developing world

URBAN MOBILITY AND MOTORIZATION: A GROWING CHALLENGE 4-3 • Table 4-1. Greater Santiago — evolution in motorization, auto mode share, trips 4-3 The Rapid Growth of Motorization 4-3 • Figure 4-1. The relationship between income and mode share in Santiago and São Paulo 4-4 • Figure 4-2. Mode shares in selected cities of the developing world 4-5 feature box •There is Significant Variation in the Motorization Rates Across the Developing World 4-5 Nonmotorized Transport (NMT): Still a Dominant Means of Travel 4-6 • Table 4-2. Motorization rates in developing nations, 1998 4-6 feature box •Motorization is Not All Autos — The Role of Two-Wheelers 4-6 Public and Paratransit Systems: The Crux of Developing City Mobility 4-7 Latin America 4-7 Africa 4-8 Eastern and Central Europe 4-8 • Table 4-3. Overall average travel speeds in Nairobi — bus versus matutu 4-8 Asia 4-9 Urban Rail Transit 4-9 Land Use and Transportation: The Architecture of Cities 4-9 feature box •Shanghai Expands 4-10

CONSEQUENCES: CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINING MOBILITY 4-11 Safety 4-11 • Table 4-4. Traffic fatalities in selected regions 4-12 • Table 4-5. Mode share and road accidents in Delhi, 1994 4-12 Congestion 4-12 Infrastructure decay and institutional weakness 4-12 • Table 4-6. Average, evening peak auto and bus speeds in Brazilian cities 4-13 Local Air Pollution 4-13 • Table 4-7. Condition of main roads by region 4-14 • Table 4-8. Motor vehicle contribution of total air pollutants in selected developing-country cities 4-14 Noise Pollution 4-14 Other Environmental Impacts 4-15 Social Equity 4-15 The poor 4-15 Women 4-15 feature box •Trade in Used Vehicles: Opportunities and Dilemmas 4-16 Assessing the Impacts 4-16 feature box •Mobility as a Force for Economic Development in Developing Countries 4-17 • Table 4-9. Road transport externality estimates for developing-country cities (as % of GRP) 4-18 THE CURRENT POLICY AND STRATEGY ENVIRONMENT 4-18 Current Conditions and Needs 4-18 Infrastructure Maintenance and Expansion 4-19 feature box •Urban Road Funds 4-20 The private sector to the rescue? 4-20 What future for the busway and urban rail? 4-21 Public transport service buses 4-21 feature box •Mexico City’s Roadways: Chasing Urban Expansion? 4-21 feature box •Privatization: Concessions of Transport Infrastructure in Bangkok 4-22 Managing the private operators 4-22 feature box •The Shifting Tides of Policy: The Vehicle Size and Paratransit Debates 4-23 Enhancing urban rail ridership 4-23 Nonmotorized Transport (NMT): From the Foot Path to the Bike Path and Beyond 4-24 feature box •Bogotá: It is Never Too Late to Start Improvements 4-25 Traffic and Infrastructure Management 4-25

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Demand Management 4-26 feature box •Curitiba, Brazil: Bus-Based Public Transport That Works 4-26 Mobility and Land Planning 4-27 feature box •Singapore: The Paragon of Land-Use Planning and Traffic Management 4-27 Transport Planning and Institutions: Daunting Tasks Ahead 4-27 • Table 4-10. Differing responsibilities and goals in transport and land planning in Santiago 4-28 feature box •Rural Transport in Developing Countries 4-29 five ● trends in intercity travel

TRENDS IN THE VOLUME OF INTERCITY TRAVEL 5-2 • Table 5-1. Distribution of 1995 US Domestic Intercity Trips and Passenger-Kilometers, by Mode 5-2 • Figure 5-1. Intercity travel in Britain (1990) and the Netherlands (1990) 5-3 • Table 5-2. Change in US Domestic Intercity Trips and Passenger-Kilometers Per Person, 1977 and 1995 5-3 • Table 5-3. Change in US Domestic Air Trips and Passenger-Kilometers per Person, 1977 and 1995 5-3 • Figure 5-2. Annual compounded growth in air traffic by region (1985–1999) 5-4 THE DEMAND FOR INTERCITY TRAVEL 5-4 • Table 5-4. Change in Domestic Intercity Auto Trips and Passenger-Kilometers per Person, 1977 and 1995 5-5 • Table 5-5. International Trips of US Residents, 1977 and 1995 5-5 The Role of Telecommunications 5-6 Intercity Trips — Various Kinds for Various Reasons 5-6 Business travel 5-6 Nonbusiness travel 5-6 AUTO 5-7 Intercity Auto Travel in the Developed World 5-8 feature box •Intercity Highways Affect the Cities they Link 5-8 Intercity Auto Travel in the Developing World 5-8 BUS 5-9 • Figure 5-3. Trends in bus use (1980–1998) 5-9 RAIL 5-10 • Figure 5-4. Where is rail passenger traffic? 5-10 Rail in the Developing World 5-10 • Figure 5-5. Trends in rail ridership in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and Japan 5-11 Rail in the Developed World 5-11 Rail in the United States and Canada 5-12 feature box •New High-Speed Rail Technology 5-12 Rail’s Link to Cities 5-12 feature box •What is the Potential of HSR? 5-13 High-Speed Rail Services 5-13 • Figure 5-6. Curve of the rail/air modal split (distances between 300 and 600 km) 5-13 AIR 5-14 Regulatory Environment 5-14 Evolution of Hub and Spoke Operations 5-15 feature box•General Aviation 5-15 Relationship between intercity air passenger and cargo operations 5-15 Trends in Aircraft Technology and Fuel Efficiency 5-16 Trends in Aircraft Size 5-16 Impacts of Air Transportation on the Global Environment 5-17 Aviation’s Effects on Cities 5-18 Ground access 5-18 Impacts of air transportation on the local environment 5-18 Regulation of aircraft emissions 5-18

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• Figure 5-7. Point sources of VOC an NOx emissions — airports versus other major sources in the New York metropolitan region 5-19 • Figure 5-8. Comparing current and future airport contributions to regional NOx levels 5-19 Aircraft noise 5-19 • Figure 5-9. Environmental issues that most concern airports in the US 5-20 Infrastructure Constraints 5-21 • Figure 5-10. People affected by aircraft noise in the United States — number within 65dB and within 55 dB DNL as a function of time 5-21 • Figure 5-11. Anticipated time for the 50 largest airports in the US to reach capacity 5-22 • Figure 5-12. Large US airports canceling or indefinitely postponing expansion projects because of environmental issues 5-22 Air traffic control issues 5-23 CONCLUSION 5-24

six ● freight mobility

Components of the Freight System 6-2 Urban freight movements 6-2 feature box •What does “Freight Mobility” Mean? 6-2 feature box •Importance of Freight Transportation to the Local Standard of Living 6-3 Regional freight movements 6-4 National or continental freight movements 6-4 feature box •The Lunch Box Carriers of Mumbai 6-4 feature box •The Role of Rail in Regional Freight Movements 6-4 feature box •Air Freight 6-5 • Table 6-1. Ocean shipping demand 6-6 International freight movements 6-6 • Figure 6-1. Value of freight shipped, 1980 and 1997 6-6 The Merchant Fleet 6-7 • Figure 6-2. Global container activity by region — 1980 and 1998 6-7 • Figure 6-3. Elements of urban freight: food, paper, and solid waste 6-8 • Figure 6-4. Energy production in selected countries 6-8 WHAT IS BEING MOVED AND WHAT IS MOVING IT? 6-9 The Commodities that Constitute Freight Movements 6-9 How Freight is Moved in Different Parts of the World 6-9 • Figure 6-5. Freight traffic in selected countries, early 1990s 6-10 • Figure 6-6. Rail freight trends in selected countries, 1970 vs. early 1990s 6-10 • Figure 6-7. Road freight trends in selected countries, 1970 vs. early 1990s 6-11 SUSTAINABILITY CONCERNS RELATED TO FREIGHT MOBILITY 6-11 • Figure 6-8. Rail freight traffic in Western Europe, 1970 versus early 1990s 6-12 Operational Sustainability Concerns 6-12 Capacity and congestion 6-12 Infrastructure availability 6-12 feature box •Cheap Freight Rates as the Key to the Global Economy 6-12 feature box •Time Scales of Change 6-13 System concerns: secure trade routes and stable financial markets 6-13 Economic Sustainability 6-14 feature box •Freight’s “Public Relations” Problems 6-14 Addressing Operational Sustainability Concerns 6-14 feature box •When is a Truck “Too Large”? 6-15 Productivity improvements in freight transportation 6-15 feature box •Freight and Information Technology 6-16 Privatization and deregulation of the railroad industry 6-16

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Operational Sustainability: Key Issues and Challenges 6-16 Environmental and Social Concerns Related to Freight Transport 6-16 Energy use and CO2 emissions 6-16 feature box •Energy Use of Ocean Freight 6-17 feature box •How Much Energy Does it Take to Get Cereal to the Breakfast Table? 6-18 Air-quality impacts 6-18 • Figure 6-9. Pollutants produced in moving freight 6-19 • Figure 6-10. Importance of emissions from heavy trucks in Federal Republic of Germany, 1987 6-19 • Table 6-2. Transport contribution to total emissions — by vehicle type in Mexico City (1996) 6-20 Social and environmental disruption to communities 6-20 feature box •Freight and Environmental Trade-offs 6-21 Environmental concerns related to domestic waterborne transport 6-21 Environmental concerns related to ocean shipping 6-21 Safety 6-22 CONCLUSIONS 6-23 seven ● worldwide mobility and the challenge to its sustainability

IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD 7-2 A Developed-World Sustainability Scorecard 7-3 IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD 7-3 A Developing-World Sustainability Scorecard 7-4 MAJOR CHALLENGES TO ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY 7-4 With Respect to Light-Duty, Personal-Use, Privately Owned Motor Vehicles 7-4 • Figure 7-1. Sustainability scorecard — developed world 7-5 • Figure 7-2. Sustainability scorecard — developing world 7-5 With Respect to Passenger Rail Systems 7-6 With Respect to Air Travel 7-7 For Motorized Freight Transportation 7-7 For Transportation of Freight Over Inland Waterways 7-8 SEVEN “GRAND CHALLENGES” TO ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY 7-8

INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITY — AN OVERARCHING CHALLENGE 7-9 Developed Countries 7-9 Developing Countries 7-10 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PRESENT MOBILITY SYSTEMS 7-10

APPENDICES A-1

REFERENCES R-1

CONTRIBUTORS C-1

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People desire mobility. They desire it both for its own sake and because it enables them to overcome the distance that separates their homes from the places where they work, shop, seek medical attention, go to school, do business, or visit friends and relatives. Businesses also desire mobility because it also helps them overcome distance — the distance that separates them from their sources of raw materials, from their markets, and from their employees. However, mobility is also associated with a variety of negative impacts — congestion, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, disruption of neighborhoods, noise, accidents, etc. Another concern is that the world’s current mobility systems rely almost exclusively on a single source of nonrenewable energy — petroleum. The tension between humankind’s desire for mobility and its concerns about the negative impacts associated with mobility raises the question of whether mobility is sustainable. This report was commissioned by the WBCSD on behalf of a group of its members as the first step in addressing that question. It was prepared by a group of researchers from MIT and Charles River Associates, and provides a “snapshot” of worldwide mobility at the beginning of the 21st century. It identifies the major threats to mobility’s sustainability. Mobility 2001 covers both the developed and developing worlds, all modes of transportation, and the movement of freight as well as the movement of persons.

Throughout most of human history, “mobility” has meant moving people and goods at the speed a person could walk, a horse could gallop, an ox could draw a cart, or a boat propelled by sails or oars could move through the water. It was not until the nineteenth century that humans harnessed steam energy and used it to move their goods and themselves at a significantly faster pace. The invention of the petroleum-fueled motor vehicle at the end of the nineteenth century and the airplane at the beginning of the twentieth century opened up opportunities for greatly increased speed and greater travel flexibility. Roads could go where railroads could not, and airplanes only needed runways on which to arrive and depart.

As a result of these innovations, the twentieth century was a “golden age” of mobility. The volume of personal travel and the volume of goods moved both grew at unprecedented rates. By the end of the century, individuals who in earlier centuries would have spent their entire lives within a hundred kilometers of their birthplace thought nothing of traveling to distant continents on business or for pleasure. Raw materials, manufactured goods, and food from half a world away became widely available.

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All populations and geographic people and goods to distant places But for many people, the term “sus- regions did not participate evenly in disturbed the peace of tens of mil- tainable mobility” reflects more mun- this twentieth-century expansion of lions of people. And by the end of dane concerns — concerns relating mobility. As the century closed, the the century, it began to be generally to whether the transportation sys- average citizen of one of the wealthi- acknowledged that emissions of car- tems on which our societies have er nations was able to act as though bon dioxide from the burning of fos- come to depend can continue to distance were virtually irrelevant. But sil fuels, a large share of which is function well enough to meet our average citizens in most of the poorer transportation-related, was affecting future mobility needs. countries of the world still transport- the climate of the planet. ed themselves and their goods in • Can the number of automobiles much the same way as their ances- and commercial vehicles keep tors did. Even within individual coun- The latter half of the twentieth centu- increasing? tries, the access to mobility enjoyed ry also witnessed both urbanization by citizens of different ages, ethnic on a scale hitherto unknown in the • Can our roads accommodate backgrounds, and incomes varied developing world and the suburban- both the increased volume of greatly. Regardless of a country’s ization of many urban areas in the passenger vehicles and the average income per capita, its developed world. Cities in some increased numbers of trucks wealthy citizens were generally much developing-world countries seemed that seem to be required to more mobile than its poor. They were to leap almost overnight from the transport ever-growing volumes more able to enjoy the benefits that age of the horse, the cart, and the of freight? this mobility created — overseas bicycle to the age of the automobile vacations, homes away from crowded and the jet airplane. This greatly • Can existing and planned air- city centers. And they also were bet- increased the number of people ports accommodate the ter able to avoid the negative conse- exposed to vehicle-related air pollu- increased number of flights that quences associated with mobility — tion, congestion, noise, and acci- are projected to result from the congestion, pollution, injuries and dents. It also greatly expanded the continued rapid growth of air deaths from traffic accidents, and so world’s demand for energy. travel? forth. Suburbanization emptied out the centers of many established cities in • Can the airspace, especially the developed world, as people over regions such as Western Although increased mobility yielded sought to escape the pollution and Europe and eastern North great benefits, it also generated congestion — only to encounter pol- America, accommodate this major negative consequences. This is lution and congestion in the suburbs larger number of airplanes? not something unique to the growth to which they had fled. of mobility in the twentieth century. • Are the fuels going to be avail- The desire for increased mobility had KINDS OF SUSTAINABILITY able to power all these cars, led to congestion and pollution prob- trucks, buses, and airplanes? lems in densely populated urban As the century closed, more and areas long before the advent of the more people began to question automobile, the train, or the airplane. whether the extraordinary trends in We will refer to these as issues of Accidents involving vehicles drawn by mobility that had characterized the operational sustainability. horses and oxen or propelled by sails last half of the century were sustain- or oars killed and injured people. able. Indeed, “sustainability” was a During the latter half of the twentieth word that began to be heard increas- We will refer to the broader set of century, however, certain of the neg- ingly in connection with all sorts of concerns reflected in the WBCSD ative consequences of enhanced transportation issues. definition as issues of economic, mobility began to become evident on social, and ecological sustainability. a regional and even a global scale. “Sustainable mobility” is a term that • Even if our transportation sys- can mean different things to different tems can be made to handle Pollution produced by the internal people. The World Business Council the increased loads that society combustion engines that powered for Sustainable Development defines is placing on them, can we (or hundreds of millions of motor vehi- “sustainable mobility” as “the ability do we want to) live with the cles began to degrade the air quality to meet the needs of society to move results? of more and more cities. The explo- freely, gain access, communicate, ration, extraction, transportation, and trade, and establish relationships • Can urban areas in both the refining of the fuels to power trans- without sacrificing other essential developed and developing portation vehicles began to damage human or ecological values today or worlds cope with growing con- the environment on an increasing in the future.” This definition empha- scale. Noise from airplanes carrying sizes the social aspects of mobility.

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also improve accessibility by reducing the characteristics they want. If such portation systems. These systems, in the distance that must be overcome. vehicles are not available in the mar- turn, facilitated the industrial revolu- “Reaching” need not necessarily ketplace, they will spend money on tion by opening up tracts of land for imply movement to a specific physi- customization. larger industrial plants and by provid- cal location. Someone can “reach” ing relatively rapid access to distant someone else by telephone, and vari- sources of raw materials. ous telecommunications technologies So mobility — both the amount of may enhance accessibility. For a travel and the manner in which travel given spatial distribution of activities is undertaken — provides more than Today, two overarching phenomena and a given level of telecommunica- mere accessibility. It also is a reflec- are shaping the pattern of human tions capabilities, however, increased tion of people’s individuality and of settlement. The first of these is accessibility generally is associated their status. Why is this? Some blame urbanization — the tendency for with increased mobility. the motor vehicle industry and the populations to concentrate in cities. travel industry for “artificially creating The second is decentralization — demand” through their advertising. the tendency of these same urban Different modes of transport offer dif- But the plain fact is that we really do areas to expand outward, generally at ferent levels of mobility and accessi- not have a very good idea why peo- rates faster than overall population bility in different circumstances. ple consume more mobility than they growth, producing net declines in the Consider the automobile and the air- “really need.” This certainly is an population densities of metropolitan plane. In urban settings, the automo- issue that could benefit from well- areas. Neither of these phenomena bile provides the highest level of designed, objective research. could be occurring without increased accessibility. Automobile users do not mobility. have to accommodate a schedule. They can depart whenever they wish, Mobility Shapes and Is Shaped and they usually have a choice of by Our Patterns of Settlement Mobility systems affect urban growth routes to their destinations. In con- in an important way because they trast, for travel between urban cen- Mobility also shapes our patterns of make areas of a city more or less ters separated by more than a few settlement. For many centuries, accessible, altering the land values hundred miles, airplanes provide the transportation was slow and capacity and an area’s attractiveness for vari- highest level of accessibility. The was low, which meant that opportu- ous uses. Transportation investments greater inherent flexibility of the nities were accessible only if people often open up new areas for develop- automobile is overshadowed by the lived near them. Overland travel was ment. A common example in both greater speed of the airplane. slow and dangerous. Only light and the developed and developing world compact goods could be transported is the highway on an urban fringe over great distances — spices, gold, that facilitates suburbanization But Some Mobility is Desired for and silks being the classic examples. around the existing urban core. its Own Sake Ships could carry more goods, and access to ports often determined the While most mobility is desired location and wealth of cities. But As population moves to the urban because it improves accessibility, travel by water, especially by sea, was fringes, high-capacity radial urban some mobility seems to be desired also slow and dangerous. Long-dis- expressways are often built to facili- for its own sake. One can engage in tance interaction was rare, and those tate trips by suburban commuters to philosophical discussions about why who undertook it ran great risks. By jobs in the urban core. Other activities people travel more than is required and large, people had to live close to follow residents, creating the edge to meet their basic accessibility one another if they were to interact cities seen in both developed and needs. But it is indisputable that routinely. developing countries. Inexpensive they do. People like to see new land and easy access by private vehi- places. They like to learn how others cles allow the building of shopping live. Sometimes they merely want to Once technological advances allowed centers, supermarkets, and hyper- “get out of the house.” increased travel speeds, the impor- marchés and malls, which offer a sin- tance of proximity declined some- gle location for convenient shopping what. Individuals and firms became in a wide variety of shops, with free Not only do people like to travel, willing and able to sacrifice nearness parking and other amenities. they care about how they travel. They for other desirable land and building pay more than the minimum price to characteristics, such as more space obtain greater amenities on airplanes, and greater environmental amenities. With increasing residential and eco- trains, and cruise ships. They spend Many feedback processes combined nomic activity in the fringes, the large sums of money not merely to to make proximity less important. amount of traffic between fringe loca- purchase motor vehicles, but to pur- The industrial revolution enabled the tions also increases. This encourages chase motor vehicles that have just development of higher-speed trans- the development of circumferential

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gestion and growing volumes Why Public Transport Loses Market Share — A Primer on of emissions? the Power of Desirable Mobility Characteristics • Can we afford to build and maintain the infrastructure that In the chapters that follow, we will show that the trend toward privately owned motor would be required to relieve vehicles and away from reliance on “conventional” forms of public transport (such as congestion, and are we willing buses and subways) is nearly universal. Various explanations have been advanced to to let it be built? explain this phenomenon. In the United States, some have suggested that the decline in public transport is the result of an organized “conspiracy.” Others have charged that • Has the increased use of private the villain is the “unfair subsidization” of lower-density housing. motor vehicles, which offer greater individual mobility for An understanding of how transportation systems differ in their ability to deliver the var- those who can afford and oper- ious characteristics of mobility leads to a much simpler — and much less sinister — ate them, deprived the poor, explanation. It also helps to identify the characteristics that “unconventional” forms of the elderly, and others of access public transportation would need in order to compete effectively with the private auto- to jobs, the ability to visit mobile. friends, to purchase the goods they need at competitive The growth in private motor vehicle fleets derives directly from the mobility benefits prices, and to obtain needed and enhancements that these vehicles provide. With their inherent flexibility in sched- medical attention? ule and choice of destinations, automobiles offer the maximum potential benefits to be derived from motorized mobility. These benefits — travel time, travel comfort and • Can the world bear the eco- amenities, and status and prestige — are not entirely related to “functional” mobility. nomic and environmental costs of locating, extracting, trans- The automobile is often superior to other modes in terms of travel times and incremen- porting, and processing the tal out-of-pocket costs, factors that are frequently thought to be the key drivers of trav- petroleum required by a grow- el choices at the level of the individual trip. In addition, private vehicle travel also offers ing number of vehicles? other service attributes that are important to consumers. For example, while parking capacity constraints may intrude, private vehicles can frequently provide full origin-to- • Can the planet’s oceans and destination service, with minimal walking and waiting times. An automobile trip also atmosphere continue to absorb offers complete schedule and route flexibility. In particular, it is possible to follow a the increased pollution generat- route that involves one or more intermediate stops so that a single chained trip may ed as a byproduct of the trans- serve multiple purposes with minimal disruption. While commuting between home and portation of vastly larger num- work, for example, one might drop children off at school, shop, or take care of other bers of people and volumes of personal business. Finally, private vehicles generally provide a superior level of comfort goods? and convenience.

The private motor vehicle’s value to the consumer is often more than utilitarian, howev- Questions relating to operational sus- er. In many if not most societies today, private vehicles not only signify arrival in the tainability largely focus on mobility middle class, but arguably serve as a tool for “making it” to the middle class, by pro- as it impacts individuals. Can a trans- viding potential access to greater job opportunities as well as a host of other “accouter- portation system enable them to ments” of middle-class life, such as shopping at malls. function as they have come to expect? Can I get to work? Can I get The contrast of the private motor vehicle’s characteristics with those of traditional fixed- to my business appointment in a dis- route, fixed-schedule public transport is striking. To begin with, public transport may tant city? Will the package that I am not even be an option for many trips. When it is, the user needs to find a convenient expecting be delivered on time? stop at both the origin and destination, and must wait for a vehicle to arrive. In ideal Questions relating to economic, circumstances, the service is running on time and the user has sufficient schedule flexi- social, and environmental sustainabil- bility, knowledge, and information to minimize the amount of time spent waiting. But ity, on the other hand, focus more these conditions are not always met, and service unreliability may lead to lengthy waits. on mobility’s impact on the broader At off-peak hours, service may be limited, and there may be no late-night service at all. society, though often in the context of how this impact might affect the For these reasons, conventional public transport systems are best at serving high levels individual. Are emissions from motor of travel demand concentrated in a relatively limited area or along well-defined corri- vehicle exhaust becoming so great dors; environments where access difficulties are minimized and acceptable levels of ser- that people in my community vice can be offered to many users in efficient and cost-effective operations. Areas that (including me) might become ill? Is typically meet these criteria include the urban core and the high-density corridors our society becoming so dependent between the core and the suburbs. Indeed, unless a potential service area meets these on the car that older people who criteria, investment in public transport facilities with high fixed costs (such as the infras- cannot drive (including me, when I tructure requirements for urban rail) would be unlikely to meet any reasonable become old) will not be able to get places and see people? Is the impact

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economic investment standard. Similarly, fare revenue production by a public transport tainable. They had a real stake in the system in these circumstances would be unlikely to cover any significant portion of the question because they are themselves operating costs. among the world’s largest firms in the mobility business. Their long-run sur- Given public transport’s difficulty in fulfilling many mobility-related needs in wealthier vival depends on mobility being sus- societies, it is not surprising to find that its share in providing mobility (and accessibili- tainable. ty) declines with increased incomes. As incomes rise to the point where GDP per capita reaches around US$5,000 per year, mobility expands mainly through increased use of public transport, although automobility — accesses to and use of the automobile — This report, Mobility 2001, was com- starts to assert itself as this figure is approached. Above that income level, increased missioned by the WBCSD on behalf mobility is largely through greater use of private vehicles, and in many instances, public of these member firms, which include transport use falls, thereby reinforcing the growth of automobile use. Figure 1-1 shows six of the world’s 10 largest compa- this trend in a selection of cities in the developed world in the period between 1960 nies, and is intended to reflect condi- and 1990. tions at a particular moment in time — the end of the twentieth century. This discussion also illustrates why public transportation’s ability to compete for users The picture we offer is not static, with the private vehicle is further curtailed by the impact of widespread private vehicle however. Complex phenomena like use on urban form. In particular, the sprawling suburbanization engendered by mobility and the challenges to sus- widespread automobile access and use creates a pattern of land use and activity that taining it can be understood only if conventional public transport is particularly ill-equipped to serve: a scattering of we appreciate the history of the prob- demands among many geographically dispersed origins and destinations, with no ori- lem, as well as the diversity of that gin-destination pair or corridor attaining particularly high demand densities. history across the developed and developing world. Because the story In metropolitan areas other than those whose land-use patterns (at least in their urban involves our largest structures — cores) predate the explosion of automobility, public transport systems will need to find cities and transportation systems — ways of more nearly matching the mobility characteristics provided by the automobile the deeply rooted issues that we dis- in order to capture a significantly larger market share. Understanding what these char- cuss will also persist for decades. If acteristics are, and how they might be provided by various types of unconventional mobility is to be made sustainable by public transport, is the first step toward eventually permitting communities to reduce 2030 — the stated goal of the their dependence on the private automobile — if that indeed is what they wish to do. WBCSD member firms supporting this effort — measures that will eventually produce the necessary changes on the world’s climate resulting from wanted to know just how mobile must be undertaken almost the emission of greenhouse gases people and goods really were in var- immediately. going to harm mankind (including ious regions; how this mobility was my children and grandchildren)? changing; and the extent to which MOBILITY AND ITS IMPORTANCE mobility was threatening to become unsustainable — or indeed, might Mobility is Principally a Means Both types of sustainability concerns already have reached that point. of Improving Accessibility reflect the vital role that mobility has come to play in our lives as we enter By and large, people seek to increase the twenty-first century. We cannot Providing the vehicles and the fuels their mobility in order to improve live without mobility. But can we live on which mobility depends is the pri- accessibility — “the ease by which with its consequences? Will the mobil- mary occupation of millions of people desired social and economic activities ity we need now and expect to need worldwide. Millions more service and can be reached from a specific point in the future be available to us? Will maintain these vehicles or operate in space” (US DOT, BTS 1997a; 136.). the economic, environmental, and them. Mobility is one of the world’s Distance impedes accessibility. It sep- social costs associated with this mobil- largest businesses, a business based arates people’s homes from the ity be tolerable? For mobility to be overwhelmingly on energy from a places where they work, shop, seek truly sustainable, the answer to ques- single raw material — petroleum. medical attention, go to school, do tions of both types must be “yes.” Virtually all mobility today is depen- business, or visit friends and relatives. dent on a continuous supply of It separates firms from their sources petroleum, a dependence that is not of raw materials, from their markets, Mobility 2001 — Taking the sustainable indefinitely. and from their employees. Mobility Pulse enables people to overcome distance.

In 2000, several member firms of The WBCSD member firms that first the WBCSD decided to “take the assembled in 2000 wanted to under- Mobility is not the only means of pulse” of the world’s mobility at the stand how companies like theirs improving accessibility. Changing the end of the twentieth century. They might help assure that mobility is sus- spatial distribution of activities can

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roads to facilitate these movements. can only occur in cities. In remote high-capacity (for their day) ships. (These circumferential roads also rural areas, each family unit had to be Rome also managed to transport serve to divert through traffic away capable of performing virtually all water — by means of aqueducts — from the urban center.) Such roads tasks needed to support their survival. and to dispose of waste products — may be easier and less expensive to No one could afford to specialize by means of sewers. construct than urban facilities because the demand for specialized because land is more available. Again, skills was not sufficient. the provision of road infrastructure Inexpensive, reliable freight trans- can accelerate the outward relocation portation also has transformed other- of households and businesses. Within But cities could not exist until the reli- wise worthless substances — such as a few years of being opened, it is not able, cheap transportation of basic remotely located deposits of low- unusual for these roads to carry traffic foodstuffs became possible. Only grade iron ore — into valuable levels that (on the basis of prior land- then could people risk not growing resources. Indeed, it is not an exag- use patterns) were not forecast to their own food, regardless of how geration to state that personal and occur until after 20 or more years of unsuited to agriculture their location goods mobility has made possible our service. might be. present globalized economy. While such institutional and political changes as the dismantling of various Mobility Enables Economic Transportation capabilities also deter- trade barriers have been necessary to Development mined how large cities could grow. globalization, without the improve- The average city in ancient Greece is ments in personal and goods mobility “The division of labor is limited by said to have had a population of only that characterized the last half of the the extent of the market,” writes about 10,000. This was the most that 20th century, such changes would Adam Smith, describing how the spe- could be supported by the trans- have been meaningless exercises. cialization of production can lower portation systems that connected There would have been no way for the cost and increase the variety of these cities and their immediate hin- trade to increase. available goods (Smith, 1776). One terlands. But the population of of the greatest barriers to the division ancient Rome managed to grow to of labor has always been the cost and approximately 1,000,000 because the Some contend that, on balance, difficulty of transportation. Smith Romans were able to transport large globalization is not a “good,” some- observed that the division of labor quantities of grain from Egypt using thing that creates net benefits. While

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there is certainly room for debate E-mail is clearly becoming a substitute improving personal accessibility and about the range and desirability of for conventional postal mail. It pro- enabling businesses to provide con- the consequences of globalization, it vides a readable and reproducible sumers with affordable products and is important to recognize that high- copy instantaneously, yet (once the services. A decrease in the latter mea- quality, efficient freight systems facili- necessary equipment is in place) it sures would reflect the success of a tate sustainable development. Indeed, costs a fraction of what standard mail system in mitigating trends that if freight systems were less efficient in costs. With the development of digi- threaten societal, environmental, and enabling people around the world to tal signatures and reliable, secure economic well-being. These trends find markets for their goods and to electronic payment systems, the need include climate change, resource purchase products from distant lands, for conventional mail is likely to exhaustion, congestion levels that then everyone’s standard of living shrink even further. But e-mail may impede productivity and threaten would suffer. The poor around the be a special case. Telecommuting is social stability, public health problems world would be hurt, not helped. becoming less of a rarity (a recent created by air pollution, ecosystem There would be more famine and estimate [Switkes and Roos 2001] collapse, and others. As a general rule disease, not less. Environmental suggests that as many as 15 million of thumb, mobility becomes more devastation in developing countries US workers may be engaging in some sustainable as it increases the mea- would be increased, not reduced, as form of telecommuting by 2002), but sures in the first set and reduces the people struggle to provide for quite often it cannot serve as an measures in the second set. themselves without the goods they acceptable substitute for the actual import from the outside world. presence of individuals in the workplace. Videoconferencing is increasing- Measures to Be Increased ly being used by business. But its Telecommunications and quality will have to improve quite a Access to means of mobility. Dis- Mobility bit before it can replace more than a tance impedes accessibility, and trivial share of face-to-face business mobility is the ability to overcome As we have already noted, telecom- meetings. In short, whether telecom- distance. As we have noted above, munications systems do indeed facili- munications technology will turn out mobility is not the only way to gain tate accessibility, but whether they to be a net substitute for or a net access to goods and services — substitute for mobility, enhance complement to mobility is still very telecommunications is another — but mobility, or complement mobility is much an open question. mobility is surely an important way unclear. Many people consider for people to achieve accessibility. telecommunications to be a substitute for mobility. According to this line of reasoning, the movement of MOBILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY But mobility itself requires access, and people (and perhaps also certain this can be impeded by cost as well goods) will become less and less nec- For mobility to be sustainable, it must as by location. As already noted, pri- essary as telecommunications tech- improve accessibility while avoiding vately owned motor vehicles are typi- nologies improve. Electronic mail will disruptions in societal, environmental, cally the most flexible means of pro- replace the physical delivery of and economic well-being that more viding mobility. But in many parts of letters. The World Wide Web will than offset the benefits of the accessi- the world, the cost of purchasing, replace newspapers and magazines. bility improvements. This means that garaging, maintaining, and operating Telecommuting will replace actual any assessment of mobility’s sustain- such vehicles is well beyond the commuting. Perhaps. But as one ability must include not only a judg- means of much of the population. recent advertisement put it, “Ever ment as to its effectiveness in improv- People must walk, use bicycles or seen a computer deliver a package?” ing accessibility but also a judgment two-wheeled motorized vehicles, or Achieving high levels of accessibility as to the magnitude and conse- rely on various forms of public trans- without mobility may be as difficult quence of any associated disruptions port. Bicycles are limited in their as realizing that other promised in social, environmental, or economic range and in the amount of weight feature of our information age, the well-being. they can carry. Two-wheeled motor- paperless office. ized vehicles are less limited in both One way of organizing the informa- these regards, but are still expensive. tion required to make these judg- Public transport is generally less Whether telecommunications tech- ments is to separate indicators into expensive in terms of the daily finan- nology will ultimately enable the elec- two categories: those measures that cial outlay required to use it but is tronic transmission of knowledge, society would like to see increased often difficult to reach and provides ideas, and information to substitute and those that society would like to relatively poor and inflexible service. for the physical transportation of peo- see reduced. An increase in the for- ple and goods will depend both on mer would reflect the success of a the quality of telecommunications system in providing the important Increasing access to flexible, afford- services and the quality of mobility. values associated with mobility — able means of mobility can be

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achieved through improvements in Worth particular mention in this Inexpensive freight transporta- any or all of these various dimensions. regard are the needs of the elderly. In tion. As urban populations grow, Reducing the cost of various types of the developed countries, the absolute there is greater need to move raw motorized vehicles is one such numbers of older people are increas- and semifinished materials from avenue of improvement. Improving ing rapidly, as is their percentage of where they are found and processed, the flexibility and reach of public the population. These people may be and to ship finished goods to market. transport systems is another. healthy and independent for several Cities cannot exist without these Developing new transportation decades after they retire and may freight systems, and people in rural devices that combine flexibility with lead active lives requiring consider- areas cannot find markets for their low cost is a third. able mobility. Many will continue to goods without them either. However, use automobiles, though safety issues the volume of freight and freight- must be considered in licensing moving vehicles is becoming so great Figure 1-2 shows annual per capita them. More generally, many older in many areas of the world that they personal transportation by mode for people as they age will increasingly are major competitors for scarce the world’s regions. These data experience physical, financial, and infrastructure capacity and also major include only travel by bus, rail, auto, other barriers in using the transport sources of air pollution. The growth and air. Nonmotorized transportation system, in moving around their com- of e-commerce depends upon an or two- and three-wheeled motorized munities, and in accessing the ser- ability to deliver electronically transport, all of which play major vices and facilities they need. So there ordered goods quickly and efficiently. roles in some parts of the world, are are different categories of users Just-in-time manufacturing has similar not included. These data indicate among the elderly, but almost all requirements. Many of the world’s that per capita use varies by roughly would benefit from a well-developed existing freight transportation systems a factor of 24 across these regions, public transport network as a primary were built in different eras to meet with the United States showing by or backup system. requirements that were very different far the highest. Western Europe and from those of today. Pacific OECD (principally Japan) show roughly the same per capita Appropriate mobility infrastruc- levels, at about half the rate of the ture. Inadequate infrastructure seri- Measures to Be Reduced United States. ously impedes sustainable economic and social development, particularly Congestion. Personal mobility can in the developing world. Extensive be improved on an individual basis Figure 1-3 shows that mode share passenger rail networks exist only in and in a rather short period of time. also varies significantly across regions. Asia and Europe, and general road- For example, if income is no longer a Rail use (both intercity and urban) is way provision in the developing constraint, people who walked or especially high in Pacific OECD; bus countries falls far behind that in the bicycled can choose to travel using and coach use is high in Europe. The developed world (see Table 1-1). faster modes, such as automobiles automobile, however, accounts for and motorized two wheelers. As a at least 50% of the distance traveled result of increased demand for per- in each region shown except for four Lack of capacity is often a serious sonal mobility, infrastructure demand of the first five, Pacific Asia, and the issue on both urban and interurban can increase rapidly. But infrastructure world as a whole. In North America, links. The basic connectivity of the can only be provided collectively at a the automobile accounts for over road network may be deficient, with larger scale, and this takes time. The 80% of total passenger-kilometers. important population or economic inertial nature of transportation facili- centers poorly linked to the rest of ty development and urban structure the country. In some cases, specific adjustments makes it difficult to keep Equity in access. An increasing individual facilities such as bridges up with a population’s rapid shifts to reliance on privately owned motor are lacking, and less convenient alter- motor vehicles, and this results in vehicles for transport means that natives like ferries serve in their serious system imbalance and enor- those without access to such a vehicle place. The quality of road infrastruc- mous congestion. may find themselves seriously disad- ture is frequently not good, because vantaged in their ability to get to jobs of deficiencies in the original design and services. The limitations of con- and construction,inadequate control Travel by private automobile tends to ventional public transport in cities of trucks with excessive axle loads, consume more space and infrastruc- increasingly tailored to the private inclement climatic conditions ture per unit of travel than does travel vehicle only serve to accentuate this (extreme heat, heavy rainfall, or by public transport, though the valid- risk. Particularly vulnerable are groups severe freeze/thaw cycles), or ity of this broad generalization hinges such as the elderly, the poor, people neglected maintenance. critically on the passenger loadings of with disabilities, and youth. the public modes. Full buses make more efficient use of road infrastruc-

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Table 1-1. Measures of transportation infrastructure per capita (km/million inhabitants)

Intercity Rail Urban Rail Roads Motorways EU 15 415 18 9,330 125 Central and 635 50+ 7,880 24 Eastern European countries United States 140*/890 7 23,900 325 Japan 210 6 9,200 51 World 210 4 4,750 35 Source: European Commission (2000). *Only 38,000 km in passenger service

ture than cars do, and empty buses cost, demand exceeds supply and house gases, though there is some are less efficient. congestion is the result. Economists overlap (see feature box). have long argued that congestion could be “solved” if only individual Congestion on road networks mani- motorists could be charged the “full Private-vehicle travel tends to gener- fests itself in travel delays and ineffi- cost” they impose on others by their ate larger amounts of emissions per cient vehicle operations. Less obvious- decision to use roads at peak periods. unit distance traveled than do public ly, perhaps, congestion is the cause of Until recently, this debate about the transport modes (Table 1-2), but this pervasive economic inefficiencies, as theoretical properties of congestion is probably too general a statement individuals, households, and firms charges was largely academic, since it to be of much value in any specific adjust their activities to compensate was impossible to levy such charges local circumstances. Clearly, many for time lost in traveling and to without bringing traffic to a halt. other factors are involved, including hedge against the possibility that However, with the development of average vehicle occupancy rates, the trips may take longer than expected. technologies capable of levying con- age and maintenance level of the Some level of congestion is economi- gestion-based tolls on moving vehi- respective vehicle fleets, and so on. cally efficient; however, building cles, the discussion has moved from infrastructure to get rid of all conges- the academic to the political arena. tion is not a solution. The costs — Apart from cost considerations relat- Technologies to reduce emissions economic as well as environmental — ed to the implementation of a con- from spark-ignition (i.e., gasoline- would far outweigh any possible gestion pricing scheme, it has powered) engines were first intro- additional benefits to travelers. become embroiled in the broader duced in the United States and Japan argument over just how great the in the late 1960s. Europe followed external costs of driving actually are with similar regulations a decade Congestion results from a mismatch and whether the level of gas taxes later. Standards for exhaust emissions, between available road capacity and and registration fees already being and for evaporative emissions of the traffic that attempts to use it at a paid by motorists, especially in places VOCs from vehicle fuel systems, have given time. This mismatch mostly like Europe and Japan, more than become progressively more stringent occurs because, as a society, we are cover these costs. and are scheduled to continue that not able (or willing) to schedule our trend. Emissions from new vehicles in activities more uniformly through the the most strictly controlled regions day and night. In other words, con- “Conventional” emissions. are 90% to 98% lower than they gestion is often better characterized Transportation vehicles are major were prior to control. Other parts of as a peaking problem, rather than a sources of local, urban, and regional the world are following this step-by- problem of inadequate capacity. air pollution. The substances emitted step regulatory approach, though by transport vehicles that contribute with some lag. to this pollution include sulfur dioxide The relatively simple economic con- (SO2), lead, carbon monoxide (CO), cept of externalities is basic to the volatile organic compounds (VOCs), The emissions from vehicles powered congestion issue. The individual trav- particulate matter, and nitrogen by compression-ignition (i.e., diesel) eler who enters the road network oxides (NOx). These substances are engines (including trucks, off-road during peak travel periods does not commonly referred to as “conven- construction vehicles, railroad loco- pay the full cost that the decision to tional” transport emissions to distin- motives, and waterborne vessels) travel imposes on everyone else. guish them from emissions of green- were in the past less strictly regulated Since price does not equal marginal than emissions from gasoline engine

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Table 1-2. Emission rates in London (grams/passenger-km) by mode, 1997

Private Motor Vehicles

4-wheel 2-wheel Taxis Buses Metro

Carbon monoxide 12.9 8.9 1.8 0.3 0.03 Hydrocarbons 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 Oxides of nitrogen 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.2 0.3 Oxides of sulfur 0.05 0.06 0.15 0.02 0.15 Lead 0.02 0.02 — — — Particulate matter 0.04 0.04 0.55 0.02 0.01 Carbon dioxide 197 115 470 89 91

Source: London Transport Buses (1999). vehicles, in part because exhaust of NOx, exacerbating the problem of In most of the developed world, the treatment technologies — catalysts reducing ambient concentrations of rate of decrease in per-vehicle emis- for NOx, traps for particulates — ozone. NOx emissions from gas tur- sions has been large enough to offset were not sufficiently developed to bines have been controlled to some the countervailing effects of increases enable their widespread use. Both extent by modifying the combustion in traffic and the growth in the num- technologies are progressing, and changes in flat mix chambers of these ber of vehicles. As a result, an overall plans are in place to reduce NOx and engines. Further reductions are likely decrease in vehicle-related emissions particulate emissions significantly to occur in the future. can reasonably be projected in the from current levels (which are about intermediate term. In the developing a factor of three below uncontrolled world, however, the reverse is true. levels). The adoption of more effective abate- The speed of motorization, the lag in ment technologies (generally in adopting more recent vehicle pollu- response to stricter government- tion control devices (in part due to Emissions from vehicles powered by imposed emissions standards) will the need to upgrade fuel quality and continuous combustion engines (pre- lead to significant reductions in per- fuel distribution systems), and the dominantly aircraft gas turbines) con- vehicle emissions rates. This will not, slow turnover of vehicle fleets mean sist principally of NOx. Aircraft emis- however, automatically translate into that total vehicle-related emissions sions can be a significant local source equivalent reductions in total vehicle- are growing. related emissions. Total light-duty passenger vehicle fleet emissions in Ozone — A Complex the United States, for example, are Greenhouse gas emissions. The Pollution “Cocktail” only about 30% to 40% lower for CO pollutants discussed above are gener- and 50% lower for HC than they ally considered a local, urban, or Readers may be surprised that we were before the imposition of con- regional problem. Other emissions omitted terrestrial (i.e., ground- trols. Emissions of NOx have been have a global impact. Carbon dioxide level) ozone from the list of emis- reduced by even less. This is due to (CO2) is produced by the combustion sions that cause local, urban, and the growth in the number of vehicles of fossil fuels. In the concentrations regional air pollution. This is and their use, the changes in fleet typically encountered in urban and because ozone is not an emission. It mix, and high emissions from a small rural environments it has no known is a complex “cocktail” formed by fraction of the fleet due to vehicle health effects. CO2 is called a “green- sunlight acting on emissions of age, failure, malfunction, or tamper- house gas” because it is one of the VOCs and NOx. Ozone is controlled ing. (Studies in many parts of the atmospheric chemicals that con- by controlling the emissions of world where strict emissions regula- tribute to the greenhouse effect that these two substances, but which of tions are in place indicate that about warms the planet. the two emissions should be con- half the total vehicle fleet emissions trolled to the greater extent differs come from 5% to 10% of the vehi- by region. In some regions, VOCs cles — the high emitters.) In addition, Certain other emissions from trans- are the controlling factor. In others, the turnover time of the vehicle fleet portation — methane, nitrous oxide it is NOx. “Overcontrolling” one of is typically more than a decade, (N2O), and vehicle air-conditioning these pollutants when the other is which delays the full impact of refrigerants — are also greenhouse the controlling factor can actually stricter new vehicle standards. gases. These gases have a much high- increase ozone formation. er potential effect on climate change

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per unit concentration than CO2, CO2 Emissions by Sector of CO2 per passenger-kilometer. The although their atmospheric concen- taxi figure is particularly high because trations are much smaller. Vehicles The International Energy Agency taxis usually carry only one or two

appear to be a modest source of (IEA) produces estimates of CO2 passengers and may cover consider- methane and N2O. Leakage of vehi- emissions by sector for the world as able distances cruising for new pas- cle air-conditioning fluids (CFCs in a whole and by country. Figure 1-4, sengers or repositioning themselves. the recent past — now banned developed from data included in the The low figure for London buses

because of their contributions to the IEA’s most recent report on CO2 reflects the relatively high passenger polar ozone “holes”) and their emissions from fuel consumption, load factor on buses in the London replacements are also as significant as shows emissions by sector. The 26% system. For the United States, where greenhouse gases. Use of CFCs is attributed to the transport sector the average passenger load per bus is now banned by the Montreal breaks down into the following sub- only about nine, the CO2 emissions Protocol, though CFCs are probably sectors: road transport (both passen- per passenger-kilometer would be still being released. The HFCs that gers and goods) — 16.9%; other somewhat higher. replaced CFCs in vehicle air-condi- domestic transport (transportation tioners are shorter-lived in the atmo- of passengers and goods by rail, air, sphere, though they still have some and inland waterway) — 6.1%; Transportation noise. Cars and effect on the earth’s thermal balance. international air transportation — trucks are major sources of noise pol- 1.4%; and international water trans- lution in most cities. Most developed portation — 1.7%. The sector iden- countries have had vehicle noise Atmospheric concentrations of car- tified as “energy production” emission regulations since the 1970s. bon dioxide and methane have includes the production of electricity Technological progress in engines increased significantly since the start and heat (steam) for general use — and exhaust systems has made these of the industrial age. More recently, 32.0%; the production of energy vehicles considerably quieter. For the earth has experienced a general (principally electricity and heat) by example, the EU allowable noise level warming trend, particularly pro- firms largely for their own use — of a modern truck is approximately nounced in the last decade. Though 4.3%; and the production of energy equivalent to that of the typical car in there has been some dispute about by other energy industries — 5.4%. 1970. Nonetheless, the noise created the extent to which increases in these The direct combustion of fuels in by motorized transportation remains greenhouse gases are responsible for manufacturing and construction a significant impact on urban resi-

the warming trend, IPCC Working account for 19.0% of CO2 emis- dents’ health and quality of life. Group 1 recently concluded (IPCC sions; the direct combustion of fuels Noise is often cited as the main nui- 2001, p. 10): “The warming over the in residences (largely for space heat- sance in urban areas, and traffic noise last 50 years due to anthropogenic ing) account for 7.6%; and the is the worst offender (a German study greenhouse gases can be identified direct combustion of fuels by com- suggests that 65% of the population despite uncertainties in forcing due to mercial and other sectors account is adversely affected by road traffic

anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and for 5.7%. (CO2 emissions from the noise, with 25% seriously affected). natural factors (volcanoes and solar production of electricity and heat As an indication, residential property irradiance).” used in manufacturing, construc- values are measurably lower near tion, residential, commercial, and noise-producing main roads, high- other sectors is attributed to the ways, and railroad tracks. There has been a growing interna- energy-producing sector.) tional consensus that prudence requires us to reduce the amount of Source: IEA (2000a). A typical urban residential neighbor- CO2 added to the atmosphere hood in the United States has decibel through human activities, including of transport that are able to use such levels between 55 dB and 70 dB. transport. It has been estimated that clean power on any scale are public Continued exposure to noise above transport activities account for rough- transport vehicles in countries such as 85 dB causes hearing loss. A recent ly 26% of total worldwide CO2 pro- Switzerland, Norway, and France that study of Austrian schoolchildren duction by humans, and this share produce large amounts of electric found that the low but continuous has been increasing (IEA 2000a). power using hydro or nuclear energy. noise of everyday local traffic can These vehicles (subways, trams, and cause stress in children and raise electric buses) draw their electric blood pressure, heart rates, and levels Production of CO2 goes hand in power from overhead lines or electri- of stress hormones. The research, hand with the consumption of ener- fied third rails. conducted by US and European gy if the source of power is a fossil researchers, was the first major study fuel. Where power is produced from of the nonauditory health effects of other sources (for example, hydro- Data from London (Table 1-2) show typical ambient community noise. electric or nuclear), CO2 production that private vehicles (and taxis) tend is minimal. Presently, the only forms to generate relatively large amounts

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effects on the quality of nearby waters and local hydrology. They are a chronic source of sediments and contaminants as a result of the runoff of materials deposited on the road surface by traffic and road maintenance crews, and by erosion of side slopes and degraded construction materials. Runoff infiltrates water- sheds through discharge directly into adjacent ponds and other surface waters, through drainage systems, and through infiltration to groundwa- ter. The migration of road salt into public water supplies and private wells is a significant problem. The physical imprint of the transportation system also has profound effects: streams are rechanneled and wetlands filled, impeding water flows and shifting the location of stream and drainage networks.

Besides vehicle engines and exhaust to developing-world operators and These highway system effects are pipes, much of the noise produced continue their noisy existence. accompanied by those caused by by vehicles today, especially in high- other branches of the transportation way operations, results from the system. Water-borne transportation movement of vehicles through the Impacts on land, water, and causes several unique disturbances to air, and the contact of tires with the ecosystems. Roads, bridges, air- water systems. Commercial water- road. The former can be reduced by ports, harbors, and the vehicles that ways are dredged to widen and aerodynamic vehicle body designs use them have profound effects on deepen channels, upsetting bottom (which also have the effect of improv- habitats and ecosystem communities sediments and contaminants. ing fuel efficiency and reducing emis- of natural species. Transportation Waterborne transportation has sions). The latter can be reduced infrastructures in developed countries proved to be a vexing conduit for through tire tread designs and are vast in scale and extent. For exotic species. The waterborne trans- improvements in pavement surface example, the road network in the portation of hazardous materials can textures (which also have the effect of United States consists of tens of thou- result in release of these shipments, draining water more effectively and sands of kilometers of lightly traveled causing water as well as land and air so reducing the risks of accident). roads (paved and unpaved) cutting pollution. Noise barriers can also minimize the through agricultural and wilderness impact of vehicle noise on nearby areas, dense networks of residential activities. streets and arteries in urban and sub- The ecological and habitat distur- urban areas, and heavily traveled bances caused by roads extend far highways that can extend uninter- beyond the land they occupy and the Aircraft are another important source rupted for hundreds of kilometers. habitats they disturb. The distur- of noise. Major airports typically han- This extensive system is a source of bances created by traffic noise, vibra- dle hundreds of thousands of aircraft numerous environmental distur- tions, and light, for instance, extend arrivals and departures per year. Most bances. Some of these occur during for some distance, disrupting essential of these aircraft are jet-propelled. In construction and some during use. animal behaviors, such as feeding and most of the developed world, increas- Examples are runoff of surface materi- reproduction. By subdividing the ingly stringent aircraft engine noise als, changes in local hydrology, the landscape into small pieces, roads regulations, coupled in some cases fragmentation of habitats, and the also fragment habitats and interrupt with late-night curfews, have suc- introduction and proliferation of inva- essential wildlife movements. If the ceeded in reducing the total noise sive species. patches between roads become too exposure at most large airports. This small, the habitat may be incapable is much less true, however, for the of providing resources needed to developing world. In many cases, air- Once built and in operation, high- maintain viable and resilient wildlife craft that can no longer meet devel- ways and other transportation facili- populations. oped-world noise standards are sold ties (such as terminals) have enduring

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Air pollution also has a major impact are elevated to eliminate grade cross- energy. In order to supply that on ecosystem behavior. Transportation ings. Communities have objected to energy — the energy to transport emissions have cumulative and long- actions (such as railway mergers and people and freight worldwide by lasting effects on the function and the construction of new lines) that land, sea, and air — more than one biological composition of ecosystems. threaten an increase in the number of liter of petroleum is consumed each Ozone can adversely affect mountain freight-carrying trains traveling day, on average, for each of the and forest ecosystems over large through them, even though such an world’s six billion inhabitants. In the areas. Emissions of NOx result in acid increase may mean fewer freight-car- industrialized countries, transporta- rain and nutrient enrichment, suspect- rying trucks on the highways. tion consumes more than half the ed causes of biological changes in ter- petroleum used for all purposes. In restrial and aquatic ecosystems. developing countries the share is less Transportation-related acci- than half, but it has been rising and is dents. The cost in human lives, expected to reach at least half within The longer-term ecological effects of injuries, and suffering attributable to a decade. these emissions outside urban areas highway and road crashes is stagger- are poorly understood. It is of ing, particularly compared to other, increasing concern that all emissions less common risks of harm that Transportation not only requires a from transportation vehicles, and the invoke much greater publicity with great deal of petroleum, it needs very disruption of habitats and natural far fewer victims. Toward the end of little energy other than petroleum. processes caused by the extensive the 1990s, around 42,000 people Fuels derived from petroleum now transportation infrastructure system were killed each year in road acci- account for more than 96% of all the and its use, are leading to gradual dents in Western Europe, down from energy used in transportation. There declines in biological diversity and around 56,000 at the beginning of has been no sign of any decrease in ecosystem functions on regional and the decade. In the United States, the that percentage (IEA 2000b). Other national scales. Climate change is number of people killed in road acci- sources of transportation energy — also likely to affect ecosystem diversi- dents per year varied between coal, natural gas, alcohols, electric ty and stability. 40,000 and 45,000. On average in power — have been significant in the two regions together, a person particular places or times but all have dies in a road accident about every been minor fractions of the total. Disruption of communities. Al- six minutes. In some countries, road though more difficult to quantify, the accidents are the primary cause of increasing orientation of the urban death in the 15- to 30-year-old age Therefore, the projected growth in transport system toward private vehi- group. The number of people serious- demand for mobility leads to a pro- cles can have additional effects on ly injured in road accidents is typically jected growth in demand for oil for the quality of community life. Urban more than ten times higher, and the transportation. “Mainstream” projec- motorways were sometimes built number of people receiving light tions put consumption levels in 25 to through the middle of established injuries over 65 times higher, than 30 years at twice the level of today communities (most frequently the number of fatalities. Fatality rates (IEA 2000b; EIA/US DOE 2001). This through communities with insuffi- in the cities of the developing world provokes a sustainability debate: for cient political power to oppose that are growing rapidly and are often how long will producers of alignment successfully), in effect already at alarmingly high rates, petroleum, a huge but ultimately lim- dividing the community and con- given the low absolute levels of ited resource, be able to satisfy trans- structing a physical barrier between motorization. portation’s ever-increasing demand the two halves. for oil? And at what price? Linked to availability of supply is the fact that Road accident victims are not just 65% of the world’s known reserves of More generally, there are relatively motorized vehicle drivers and occu- conventional petroleum are located few opportunities for serendipitous pants, but also include pedestrians in the Middle East (BP 2000), and interactions between residents in a and bicyclists. In developed countries, there is concern about the rest of the community dominated by private- these groups account for roughly world being so dependent on what vehicle travel, because when people 10% to 15% of the total number of has been a politically volatile region. leave their homes they isolate them- road fatalities. The plight of pedestri- selves in cars. This can lead to a loss ans and bicyclists is worse in develop- of sense of community and social ing countries, where they account for The more pressing sustainability issue cohesion. a disproportionately large number of is not the availability of fuel but CO2 road accident fatalities. emissions resulting from the production/manufacture and use of fuel, “Barrier effects” are not limited to whether the fuel is derived from con- highways. Rail lines can also divide Use of nonrenewable, carbon- ventional petroleum, heavy oil, or communities, especially when they based energy. Every vehicle requires natural gas. Switching from

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petroleum-like fuels to other fuels Chapter 2 — Patterns of passenger cars and light trucks and that emit less CO2 during their manu- Mobility Demand, Technology, the limited production and marketing facture and use could mitigate CO2 and Energy Use of hybrid electric vehicles, offer the emissions from the use of transporta- promise of significant improvements tion fuels. That is the principal driving We discuss the surprising stability in in light-duty vehicle energy efficiency. force behind the current interest in the average amount of time and the These, as well as other efforts by the fuels such as ethanol or methanol average share of income that differ- automotive and aircraft industries and that are derived from biomass, and in ent populations have been willing to their suppliers to explore and develop fuels such as hydrogen or electric devote to personal transportation better performing and more efficient power that can be derived from over the last 50 years. While the dis- vehicle technologies, indicate that sources of primary energy that do not tance traveled per person each day even more improvements are likely in emit CO2. The path to sustainability has increased rather steadily, the time the future. in transportation energy will have to spent in accomplishing this travel has explore options such as these. varied from about an hour per day to Presently, there are many economic, just under an hour and a half per day. Chapter 3 — Personal Mobility technical, and other barriers to the With one notable exception — Japan — in the Urbanized Developed commercialization of these alternative the share of disposable income spent World fuels, but further work can reduce by the average citizen of a developed many of those barriers. country on personal travel has varied The developed world is generally between 11% and 16%. The increase characterized by high incomes, high in average distance traveled has been levels of urbanization, high mobility, Transportation-related solid made possible by a shift toward and by populations that are both waste. Vehicles — especially automo- faster, more flexible personal trans- aging and stable. (By “developed biles and light trucks — are major portation modes — especially the world” we mean the countries of the users of materials such as steel, iron, automobile and the airplane. OECD excluding Mexico and Korea.) aluminum, glass, and plastics. The It also is characterized by very high extent to which these materials are rates of ownership and use of auto- reused varies significantly by region. In We review the evolution of the basic mobiles and other light-duty vehicles. the United States, for example, more transportation technologies that have Indeed, with very few exceptions than 95% of ferrous material in all de- substantially improved the perfor- (Tokyo being the most notable), large registered motor vehicles is repro- mance and productivity of personal developed-world cities are over- cessed, with at least 75% of the vehi- and freight transportation. This whelmingly dependent on automo- cle mass extracted for reuse. This high review focuses heavily on propulsion biles for motorized personal mobility. percentage is driven by the strength of systems. With the exception of trains the steel minimill industry and the powered by externally supplied elec- ready market for its products. In other tricity, all motorized personal and This very high degree of automobili- countries, the percentage is lower. A freight transportation vehicles are ty has made possible a reduction in substantial number of used vehicles is powered by some form of combus- the population density of most shipped abroad from Europe (to North tion engine — spark-ignition, com- urban areas. The reduction in popu- Africa and Eastern Europe) and from pression-ignition, and continuous lation density, in turn, has undercut Japan (to Southeast Asia). ignition (turbine). Improvements in the competitiveness of traditional materials have also contributed to public transport, reinforcing the use these improvements in transporta- of the private automobile and disad- MOBILITY 2001 — A ROAD MAP tion. We describe these materials and vantaging those who, for one reason No single study can hope to provide efforts to increase their recyclability. or another, do not have access to a a truly comprehensive treatment of Finally, we describe the characteristics car. The dependence on the automobility in all its aspects worldwide, of the petroleum-based fuels current- mobile has meant that emissions or the challenges to its sustainability. ly used to power essentially all vehi- from these vehicles, as well as from In conducting this study, we have cles and review the effectiveness, to trucks that deliver freight to the made choices between breadth and date, of the relatively limited efforts same urban areas, account for much depth of coverage that we hope will being made to enable us to make the of the air pollution that plagues provide the reader with a sense of the transition from our near-complete many cities throughout the devel- critical issues without overwhelming dependence on these fuels. oped world. Emissions of carbon detail. We have organized the report dioxide from developed-world motor around a series of six pictures, each a vehicles presently account for the natural part of the mobility story. Transportation technologies — both majority of transportation-related propulsion systems and vehicles — greenhouse gas emissions, though continue to improve. Several trends, this is changing as motorization in such as the increased market share of the developing world grows rapidly. the more efficient diesel engine in This vast number of vehicles con-

www.wbcsdmobility.org 1-15 introduction

gests the roads and is responsible for tions. The most important develop- Chapter 5 — Trends in Intercity large numbers of injuries and ing-world phenomenon is the Travel deaths, not only of the occupants, extremely rapid rate of urbanization but also of pedestrians and others. in many countries. “Megacities” — There is much more intercity and large urban agglomerations some- intercontinental passenger travel in times containing tens of millions of the developed world than in the We describe efforts that are under people — are springing up through- developing world. But even in the way to deal with these challenges to out the developing world, especially developed world, intercity and inter- sustainability. Improvements in in Asia and Latin America. These tens continental passenger travel accounts engine technologies and fuels have of millions of people have to get to for a very small share of total trips helped to reduce per-vehicle emis- work, get to school, and shop. The (though a somewhat larger share of sions of many pollutants, though goods they produce and consume passenger-kilometers traveled). In the increases in the number and use of have to be transported from their developed world, the principal modes vehicles have served to offset these factories and to their stores. The of intercity travel are the private auto- reductions to a considerable degree. waste they generate must be collect- mobile, rail (increasingly, high-speed Vehicle-related accident rates have ed and disposed. All this requires rail), and commercial aircraft. In the fallen in many countries, and the transportation. developing world, the travel that does “survivability” of occupants has occur is by bus, by conventional rail, improved due to structural improve- and to a small but rapidly growing ments and the use of seat belts and The number of vehicles — from bicy- extent, by air. We concentrate most of the like. These are positive develop- cles to motorized two-wheelers to our attention on rail and air. ments. On the negative side, con- cars to trucks and buses — is grow- gestion seems to be getting worse in ing even more rapidly than the pop- the urbanized areas of most devel- ulations of many of these urban Rail passenger traffic is important in oped countries. Efforts to construct areas. A large share of the trips in several countries, especially Japan, new transportation infrastructure such locations, however, is still made China, India, the countries of the EU, have been overwhelmed by demand on foot, and the intermingling of and Russia. Many passenger rail sys- generated in response to construc- pedestrian traffic with self-propelled tems, such as India, China, and Russia, tion of more road capacity, and by and motorized vehicular traffic gen- are poorly maintained and have anti- community resistance to the location erates massive congestion and very quated rolling stock. As these coun- of many urban infrastructure pro- high accident rates. Traffic-related tries continue to develop, intercity jects. The congestion-reduction deaths and injuries in developing- passenger rail is likely to face increas- promise of “intelligent highways” world cities are very numerous, espe- ing challenges from other modes. remains to be fulfilled. Motor vehi- cially among the poor. The motor- Other passenger rail systems — Japan, cle–related greenhouse gas emis- ized vehicles spew out pollutants that much of the EU, and, to a small sions continue to rise, as technologi- can make air in these cities virtually extent, North America — are being cal improvements are overwhelmed unbreathable. Many of these vehicles upgraded to enable them to compete by growth in vehicle use, though the have no emissions controls, and not so much with road vehicles but rate of increase has been slowed in those that do are often poorly main- with airlines. These high-speed rail sys- some countries. Also, efforts to roll tained. In contrast to the urbanized tems are meeting with some success, back the tide of private automobiles areas of the developed world, vehi- especially when distances are relatively in a major way by luring drivers to cle-related air pollution in the devel- short and the quality of air service rel- conventional public transport have oping world is clearly getting worse. atively low. largely failed. Public transport rider- The same is true of transport-related ship has been increasing in many emissions of greenhouse gases. If cities, but public transport’s share of present trends continue, transporta- Indeed, considering the problems we total urban personal transportation tion-related developing-world green- find facing air transportation, it may has not. In sum, many challenges house gas emissions will pass those be that rail’s competitiveness will grow exist to making personal mobility of the developed world within the substantially in the years ahead. Air sustainable in the urbanized areas of next 25 years. transportation has been growing the developed world. extremely rapidly and is generally forecast to continue to do so for the Given this situation, it should not be next several decades. But it faces Chapter 4 — Personal Mobility surprising that we conclude that per- major sustainability challenges. One in the Developing World sonal mobility in the developing of the most important but least world is poor in many regions and is appreciated is the significance of its The developing portion of the world deteriorating in many areas where it greenhouse gas emissions. At present, is characterized by low but generally had been improving in the past. air transportation is responsible for rising incomes and by rapidly grow- between 8–12% of transport-related ing and relatively young popula- carbon emissions. It is becoming

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understood, however, that these ed 43% of all transportation energy at mobility systems. The nonsustainable emissions are responsible for a much present. Vehicles transporting freight aspects include: the adverse conse- greater share in terms of global also contribute in an important way quences on certain groups in society warming potential, because of where to emissions of conventional pollu- (especially the poor and the elderly) they occur — not at the earth’s sur- tants as well as greenhouse gases. that the growth of automobility has face, but high in the atmosphere. Freight vehicles also contribute to traf- had on their ability to obtain access This is believed to lead to an approxi- fic congestion, noise, and accidents. to aspects of life now considered mate doubling of their impact. Freight handling facilities are major commonplace in most developed Moreover, given the rate that air trav- users of land, especially in and near countries; the light-duty vehicle’s el is projected to increase, aircraft- cities. As in the case of personal motor contribution to various environmental related greenhouse gas emissions will vehicles in the developed world, and ecological problems; the auto- take on an even greater importance improvements are being made in the mobile’s significant contribution to in the years ahead. emissions characteristics of freight- death and injury due to occupants hauling vehicles, especially trucks. and accidents; and the automobile’s However, the continuing shift in contribution to congestion. Another important sustainability issue freight traffic from less-polluting rail to facing air transportation is the rapid more-polluting trucks is serving to off- growth of airport and airway conges- set these improvements. This trend The major challenge in the develop- tion. In spite of significant advances toward increasing volumes of truck ing world is to avoid being choked — in the reduction of aircraft noise, air- freight traffic is also offsetting literally and figuratively — by the ports are still noisy facilities. They also improvements in truck energy effi- rapid growth in the number of pri- are major sources of conventional ciency. The growing use of air freight vately owned motorized personal- pollution, both from the aircraft that to move small packages is a trend that transportation vehicles. This growth is use them and from the vehicles that is increasing the energy used (and the causing the same environmental, service these aircraft and that trans- greenhouse gas emissions) of the air safety, and congestion problems as port passengers to and from them. transportation system. exist in the developed world, but in Expanding existing airports or finding much of the developing world, they sites for new airports is very difficult. are worse, and becoming more so. Chapter 7 — Worldwide Mobility and the Challenges to Its Chapter 6 — Freight Mobility Sustainability With regard to air travel, the major challenge is to avoid the disadvan- Freight mobility is absolutely essential In this final chapter we bring together tages of success. Some way needs to to the modern world. The ability to the pictures presented in the previous be found to increase the ability of the transport large volumes of goods six chapters to summarize what we world’s airports and airway systems to long distances at very low costs have learned about the state of handle the projected growth in air enables cities to exist, farmers to find worldwide mobility and the major traffic in a manner that the public will markets for their crops, firms to reap challenges to its sustainability as we find acceptable. And looming on the the advantages of specialized produc- enter the twenty-first century. We horizon is the formidable challenge of tion, and consumers to have access present a summary picture of the dealing with the energy requirements to a vast variety of goods at afford- state of mobility in the developed and greenhouse gas emissions of this able prices. The importance of freight and developing world. We then iden- transport mode. mobility is not confined to the long- tify the major cross-cutting challenges distance movement of goods. The to the sustainability of mobility and efficient movement of freight within indicate where things stand both as With regard to passenger rail sys- an urban area, or over regional dis- to the level and the rate of change of tems, the challenge is to find ways tances (100–500 kilometers) is a key these challenges. Finally, we translate of attracting the number of passen- to competitiveness. these findings into their implications gers needed to realize their favorable for various transportation modes. emissions and energy-use characteristics. Siting problems will also loom There are several important sustain- large if many countries do indeed ability concerns with respect to With regard to the automobile and undertake major programs to freight. One of these is the amount of other personal-use light vehicles, we upgrade their passenger rail systems. energy used. Although much freight find that the major developed-world The sustainability challenges facing transportation is relatively energy-effi- challenge is to preserve (and, if possi- motorized freight have much in cient, the sheer volume of freight ble, enhance) the desirable mobility common with those facing the auto- moved means that the total energy characteristics of automobile-based mobile — emissions, congestion, requirement of the world’s freight mobility systems while reducing (or, and safety. transportation systems is quite large. preferably, eliminating) the nonsus- Freight transportation uses an estimat- tainable characteristics of these

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There is one additional major sustainability task facing all modes in all parts of the world — the job of developing sufficient institutional capacity to enable the other challenges to be met. Technology offers hope in solving (or at least mitigating) many of the challenges to achieving sustainable mobility. But technology cannot do this on its own. Transportation systems are very complex, very long- lived, and affect large numbers of people in many different ways. Building consensus about what needs to be done to make mobility sustainable, and then implementing what this consensus implies, will be a tremendous challenge, especially in democratic countries where everyone with a stake in something can demand to be heard. This may be the greatest challenge of all to achieving sustainable mobility — and one in which business will have an important role to play.

www.wbcsdmobility.org 1-18 patterns of mobility, demand, technology, and energy use

This chapter reviews several trends that influence the demand for and supply of mobility around the world. The first is the growth of population, especially the urban population, in both the developed and developing world. In the developed world especially, this growth in urbanization is being accompanied by a decline in average population density — a phenomenon we refer to as “suburbanization.” The second is the surprising stability over at least the past 50 years in the average amount of time that individuals spend traveling each day and the average share of their disposable income that they spend on transportation. Increases in average distances traveled have resulted from the use of faster and more flexible modes, not increased travel time. The third is the developments in vehicle and propulsion technologies that have improved the productivity and performance of transportation systems. The fourth is the transportation sector’s almost total reliance on a single, nonrenewable fuel — petroleum. This final trend also means that the transportation sector is inevitably a focus of attention in the debate over global climate change, since the combustion of petroleum produces carbon dioxide.

Mobility in the twenty-first century has many faces: the Boston businessman commuting to his “streetcar suburb” in a light-rail vehicle (i.e., trolley); the Dublin mother driving her children through new suburbs west of the city; the Kenyan village woman walking several kilometers to fetch water each day; the Bangkok manufacturer ferrying her goods to market in a three-wheeled, motorized cart; and the Yokohama longshoreman discharging Saudi Arabian oil from Norwegian tankers. Despite the vast differences of means and motive for travel around the world, past patterns of mobility share certain characteristics that are likely to persist into the foreseeable future: people travel daily, to obtain food, to find work, to play and relax. As people’s incomes rise, they travel farther and faster, and they purchase more and more goods — an appetite that the increasingly cheap and efficient system of global freight works to satisfy. More and more people live in cities, or in the suburbs that spread inexorably around them, and the majority prefer automobiles above all other means of transport — a choice that has wide and profound consequences for their neighbors and their environments. Perhaps the most important result of more motorized travel is the world’s increasing dependence on one source of energy, petroleum-based fuels. These trends pose challenges to both the operational sustainability of mobility, as well as to its economic, social, and environmental sustainability, and must be accounted for in planning for a healthy and prosperous future.

Notes are gathered at the end of each chapter.

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The most obvious commonality is that Compounding the mobility demands expensive but consumes more energy all people travel. Even people at the of an increasingly large and more per passenger-kilometer traveled. very bottom of the world’s economic urban population is the travel ladder must travel for survival — for demand created by rising income. food or water or work — perhaps Data from all regions of the world Almost all of the motorized vehicles using the most basic means of travel, over the last 50 years demonstrate (except for electrified trains) share walking or bicycling or animal trans- that travel (the average number of one crucial characteristic: they are port. Therefore, when world popula- kilometers traveled per person, per driven by a combustion engine. No tions grow, total travel grows. And day) increases as income increases — other transportation power plant can population is growing, more than and income, however unevenly dis- match the compactness, cost, flexibil- doubling in the last 50 years and tributed, is increasing around the ity, and reliability of the two widely increasing by about 75 million people world. As income rises, people used versions of this engine — the per year. More than 95% of this increasingly take trips for reasons gasoline spark-ignition and the diesel growth is in developing countries, other than survival. For example, in compression-ignition engine. During whose networks of roads, trains, and the industrialized world, only about the past century, technical advances airports are barely able to accommo- 20% to 25% of all travel is now work- in these combustion engines, and the date the present demand for mobility. related. vehicles they power, have yielded The lack of finances to invest in addi- steady improvement in the perfor- tional infrastructure further inhibits mance, convenience, and safety of all future potential for growth. Another noteworthy historical obser- motorized vehicles. Current trends vation is that people travel farther as suggest these engines will continue their incomes rise, but they do not to improve, forming a powerful com- Many of the urban areas in which travel for longer periods of time. On petitive barrier for new technological these growing populations are average, they spend roughly an hour entrants to the marketplace. increasingly concentrated are now a day traveling, regardless of dis- megacities, which pose special prob- tance. That means, of course, that lems of congestion, pollution, and people shift to faster means of trans- A similar situation holds for large air- land use while still needing to provide portation, from walking to bus, train craft: they are propelled by gas-tur- opportunities for growing passenger or two- and three-wheeled vehicles, bine-based jet engines. This propul- and freight mobility.1 then to cars, and ultimately to high- sion technology provides superior speed trains and airplanes. This move performance at lowest cost, and it to faster vehicles is not only more too has developed substantially over

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Urbanization and its Medians Don’t Tell the Whole Story Concentration in the Developing World It helps to understand the past and likely near future of mobility by looking at broad aggregate trends such as median travel growth, times, distances, or expenditures in an Two trends that have dominated entire region. But those aggregations disregard the facts that travel behavior of individ- population patterns in the last half- uals is widely dispersed around the medians, many higher and many lower. Some data century — urbanization and the con- from passenger travel in the United States during 1995 vividly illustrate how wide this centration of population growth in dispersion is for time spent traveling, money spent on travel, number of trips per day, the developing world — are expected and average distance of a trip. to extend into the coming decades.

Here are a few numbers from the data: Median travel time is about 45 minutes a day, but 20% of people travel more than 100 minutes a day; median household expendi- Though the extent of urbanization tures on travel are about 12% of disposable income, but 20% of households spend varies widely across the globe — only more than 25%; the median person makes about 2 ½ trips a day, but 20% of people 37% of Asians live in cities, as opposed make more than five trips a day; and the average trip length is about four kilometers, to 77% of North Americans — the but 20% of trips are at least 15 kilometers. At the other end of the spectrum are the trend across the globe has been, and people that travel much less than the medians — the old, the infirm, and the poorest. continues to be, toward increased urbanization.2 Figure 2-1 shows that last century’s trend of population the past several decades and contin- native sources of energy, such as bio- growth in urban regions is expected to ues to improve. fuels or the carbon-free production of continue through 2030. Indeed, it is hydrogen and electricity. expected that after 2015, growth in the world’s urban population will The fuels these engines use form exceed total growth, implying a net another crucial characteristic of trans- TRENDS IN POPULATION AND decline in the world’s rural population. port technology: 96% of all the ener- URBANIZATION gy used for transportation, for both passengers and freight worldwide, The most significant factors driving The industrialized world is already comes from a single raw material — demand for mobility in the twentieth largely urbanized: About 75% of its petroleum. Fuels derived from century are the rapid growth in the population is currently concentrated petroleum have attractive technical number of people in the world, their in urban areas, and this share is pro- characteristics and historically have steady migration into cities, and the jected to increase to nearly 85% by been available in adequate supply at decline in the population density 2030. By contrast, only 40% of the a reasonable price, despite steady (inhabitants per square kilometer) of population in the countries of the increases in demand. Even though these cities. At the beginning of developing regions lives in urban world demand for transportation industrialization in the mid-nine- areas, though there are regions that energy is projected to double in the teenth century, world population was are highly urbanized — e.g., Latin next 25 years, an adequate supply of around 1.2 billion. Between 1900 and America, where 75% of the popula- conventional petroleum or other fossil 1950, it grew from 1.7 to 2.5 billion. tion is urbanized (UN 2001). By fuels, at a competitive price, is likely Between 1950 and the end of the 2030, urban areas in the developing to be available for decades. However, century, it more than doubled, reach- world are expected to house about market disturbances are possible, ing 6.1 billion in 1998. In the early 56% of the entire population of those since most known reserves of conven- twenty-first century, world population regions. Globally, 60% of the world tional petroleum are located in the is expected to continue to grow, but population is projected to reside in Middle East, currently a politically at a declining rate. Most projections urban areas in 2030, up from approx- unstable region. foresee a combination of low fertility imately 47% in 2000. and low mortality leading to a peak of about 10 billion people in the mid- A key issue of sustainable transporta- dle of this century. Although this level The other trend dominating population is that fuels derived from fossil is still below the higher range of tion trends is the gradual stabilization resources, petroleum or alternatives, recent estimates of the earth’s carry- of population growth in the devel- result in large CO2 emissions during ing capacity of 12 billion people oped world, and a consequent con- fuel manufacture and consumption. (Cohen 1995), such growth in popu- centration of growth in the develop- As policies emerge to constrain CO2 lation imposes increasing pressure on ing world. As Figure 2- 2 shows, in and other greenhouse gas emissions the earth’s resources. the period between 1950 and 2000, from the transportation sector, more the population of the developed fuel-efficient vehicles can make an world grew by 46%, from 810 million important contribution to sustainable to 1.19 billion. In contrast, the popu- mobility. However, ultimately it may lation of the developing world be necessary to harness cleaner, alter- increased by nearly 200%, from 1.7

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Suburbanization billion to 4.9 billion. These trends are order of magnitude, and allowed sub- expected to continue, and most of The population “explosion” in the urbs to expand dramatically. the population growth in the coming world’s cities has been accompanied decades will be in the developing by a contemporaneous process of world. As noted above, it is estimated suburbanization: an expansion of the Although proliferating in size and that the population of the world will urban region and a trend toward a number across the globe, suburbs increase by about 2 billion people to lower density of activity than evident are especially popular in the United 8.1 billion by 2030. The developing before the middle of the twentieth States. American suburbs grew for world — particularly the urban century. Though suburbanization has several reasons, including the expan- regions — is expected to be responsi- progressed at different rates across sion of interstate and ring-road high- ble for virtually all of this growth. the world, and has taken on differ- ways to facilitate automobile travel; Already today, developing countries ent characteristics in different places, the flat-rate fare scheme of many host 80% of the world population, there has been a near-universal metro and train systems (allowing and this share is projected to rise to trend toward redistributing the people living farther out to pay the 85% by 2030. urban population across a greater same fare that other commuters geographic area. paid for a shorter trip); abundant and cheap land; low interest rate The consequence of these two trends — financing schemes for home buyers the process of urbanization, and its Transportation has played an impor- (in the past often offered by the trol- increasing concentration in the devel- tant role in facilitating this trend. ley companies); and the quickly oping world —is most strikingly illus- Starting in the mid-nineteenth centu- erected (often self-assembled) bal- trated by the increase in the number ry, urban residents have taken advan- loon-frame house (Jackson 1985). As of megacities. As Table 2-1 shows, in tage of the introduction of ever-faster a result, urban areas grew much 1950 New York City was the world’s and more flexible means of trans- faster than their populations. only megacity, with a population of portation to move farther away from Between 1970 and 1990 alone, pop- 12.3 million. By 2000, 19 cities the city center. The electric trolleys of ulation in the New York City worldwide had grown to that size — the late-nineteenth century made the metropolitan area grew by only 8%, only four of them were in the indus- first waves of European and North while the urban area itself increased trialized world. According to projec- American suburbs accessible to daily by as much as 65% (Doyle 2001). tions by the United Nations commuters. Compared to walking Population division, the number of and horse carriages, the trolley megacities will increase to 23 by offered a fourfold increase in speed. Urban expansion in the developing 2015, and 18 of them will be in This allowed people to double the world is also accelerating, often in developing countries. The sheer num- distance between their suburban resi- ways similar to the expansion taking ber and size of these cities impose dence and their city-center office, place in the industrialized world. And, significant challenges, ranging from and still make the same number of as in the developed world, the real efficient energy and transportation trips in the same amount of time. The estate market has a large role in facili- systems to health and social con- widespread use of automobiles after tating urban outgrowth in developing cerns, including sanitation, safety, 1950 increased the range that can be countries. For example, in Prague, and housing. covered per unit time by almost one large real estate companies have in

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Table 2-1. Population of cities with 10 million inhabitants or more — 1950, 1975, 2000, and 2015 (in millions)

1950 1975 2000 2015 City Pop. City Pop. City Pop. City Pop. 1. New York 12.3 1. Tokyo 19.8 1. Tokyo 26.4 1. Tokyo 26.4 2. New York 15.9 2. Mexico City 18.1 2. Mumbai 26.1 (Bombay) 3. Shanghai 11.4 3. Mumbai 18.1 3. Lagos 23.2 (Bombay) 4. Mexico City 11.2 4. São Paulo 17.8 4. Dhaka 21.1 5. São Paulo 10.0 5. New York 16.6 5. São Paulo 20.4 6. Lagos 13.4 6. Karachi 19.2 7. Los Angeles 13.1 7. Mexico City 19.2 8. Kolkata 12.9 8. New York 17.4 (Calcutta) 9. Shanghai 12.9 9. Jakarta 17.3 10. Buenos Aires 12.6 10. Kolkata 17.3 (Calcutta) 11. Dhaka 12.3 11. Delhi 16.8 12. Karachi 11.8 12. Metro Manila 14.8 13. Delhi 11.7 13. Shanghai 14.6 14. Jakarta 11.0 14. Los Angeles 14.1 15. Osaka 11.0 15. Buenos Aires 14.1 16. Metro Manila 10.9 16. Cairo 13.8 17. Bejiing 10.8 17. Istanbul 12.5 18. Rio de Janiero 10.6 18. Bejiing 12.3 19. Cairo 10.6 19. Rio de Janiero 11.9 20. Osaka 11.0 21. Tianjin 10.7 22. Hyderabad 10.5 23. Bangkok 10.1 Source: UN (2001). recent years been purchasing large important challenge to the sustain- land and herded animals, using farm tracts of peripheral lands for residen- ability of the developing world city. animals if they were wealthy enough tial and commercial megaprojects. to buy them. Still, their movements were determined by mainly one pur- PATTERNS OF TRAVEL BEHAVIOR pose: survival. Not much changed Another feature distinguishing subur- AND DEMAND until the beginning of industrializa- banization in the developing world tion, when real incomes began rising The Effect of Income on Travel has been the preponderance of the in many parts of the world, more Behavior urban poor on the periphery. In cities people could afford to make trips ranging from New Delhi to the Rising incomes are driving travel beyond those necessary for survival, Colombian cities of Bogotá and Cali, demand across the globe. As people and motorized transport made those the urban poor forced out of the city earn more, they can afford faster, trips feasible. Even today, low-income center either by high rents, or occa- mechanized travel, and travel farther residents in the cities of the develop- sionally by diktat, inhabit large tracts in a shorter period of time. The first ing world typically take only one or of the periphery. Facilitating the humans roved through forests, grass- two trips per day. One trip is dedicat- mobility of this segment of the popu- lands, and waters, searching for food. ed to a combination of work (short- lation is a particularly significant and After settling down, they cultivated term survival) and education (longer-

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term well-being), and sometimes ting overall travel demand for the for any particular region, there can be another is taken for personal business very large populations of people large differences among groups; for (usually shopping at local markets). described in this report. example, in the UK people over 70 With rising income, people continue years of age spent only about half as to dedicate one trip to the combina- much time traveling as people in tion of work and education, but then In the richer industrialized world in their 30s and 40s. take additional trips associated with the last 50 years, higher expenditures personal business (e.g., shopping for on travel increased the total daily trip a variety of goods, health care, and rate to more than three trips per per- Another pattern is that people in religious services) and leisure (includ- son, and the average trip distance industrialized regions spend roughly ing holidays). rose by a factor of 2-3. Meanwhile, 11% to 16% of their disposable work-related travel declined to only income on travel, regardless of the 20% to 25% of all travel, and some average daily distance traveled — People also tend to increase the dis- travel became an end in itself, often whether they are Americans who tances they travel roughly in propor- just for the sake of experiencing the travel over 60 kilometers a day or tion to increases in their incomes, freedom provided by driving an auto- Britons who travel about 30 kilome- particularly as they start to access mobile. Traveling to survive no longer ters a day (Figure 2-4). Densely popu- faster modes. That pattern has been dominates the demand for mobility. lated, with fewer cars and more remarkably constant in all areas of the developed commuter trains, Japan is world over the last 50 years, ranging an exception at 7% to 8%. People in from regions with an average annual Although the total distances traveled nondeveloped regions spent a smaller gross domestic product (GDP) as low increased over the last 25 years, it is share of their income on travel, but as $500 per capita up to regions with somewhat surprising to note that the that is likely to rise as industrialization a GDP as high as $20,000 per capita time spent traveling remained rough- progresses. (Figure 2-3). Other factors can come ly constant in many different coun- into play. For example, the higher tries over many different time peri- population density (shorter distances ods. For example, Americans and Considering the wide range of places to travel between places) and greater Dutch who traveled 40 to 60 kilome- and circumstances around the world, transport prices in Europe (compared ters per person per day spent about it is remarkable that people’s travel to North America) decrease demand, the same time traveling, a little over time is so consistent. There is no so Europeans travel about a third less an hour a day, as Tanzanians and wholly satisfactory explanation of the distance than North Americans at the Ghanians, who traveled only about 5 results. One could argue that only same GDP per person. Still, income kilometers per day (Figure 2-4). As about an hour or so for travel is left remains the dominant factor in set- expected, within the overall average after typical time expenditures of

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eight hours for sleeping, nine hours 1950 and 1997, the total number of In addition to overall growth mea- for work and free time, four hours for kilometers traveled each year by sured by total distance traveled, there domestic obligations and child care, each person then on earth went up have been major shifts among means and two hours for eating and person- more than threefold. The total trans- of transport. As people earn more al care. But all those “typical” time portation system, accommodating and travel more, they use faster or allocations can be higher or lower, both that per capita increase and more convenient (and less energy- leaving less or more time for travel. population increase, provided over efficient per passenger-kilometer) eightfold more passenger-kilometers vehicles, automobiles in particular. in 1997 than in 1950. The greatest loser is therefore travel The fixed amount of time that peo- by rail, worldwide. In fact, since ple budget for travel means that any 1950, rail travel has decreased dra- increase in daily travel distance must The average world growth rate of matically as a share of the total travel, be satisfied by a faster means of kilometers traveled annually has been especially in nondeveloped regions transportation. Rising income and rising at an impressive rate of 4.6% where it was the dominant form of transportation expenditures enable per year. The growth rate in some motorized travel (see Figure 2-5). the use of ever-faster means of trav- poor regions is even larger. China is el, and these in turn expand the dis- the premier example, growing at tance that can be covered within a 9.4% per year, although from an In industrialized regions over the last fixed travel time. As income and admittedly low base. Table 2-2 lists 50 years, automobiles accounted for daily travel distances rise, the per- some statistics of growth, in both a roughly stable 70% to 75% of the centage of trips made by automobile absolute and percentage terms, by all passenger-kilometers traveled, with also tends to rise. While it is now means of transportation over the higher percentages in North America below 10% in the developing world, 1950-1997 period. Total passenger offsetting lower percentages else- it has risen to roughly 50% in travel in industrialized regions of the where. By contrast, in nondeveloped Western Europe, and to nearly 90% world is now roughly equal to total regions, automobile travel rose from in the United States. travel in all other regions; it was less than 20% of the total in 1950 to almost four times as large in 1950. about 40% now, and that share is Nondeveloped countries closed the continuing to rise. Travel Growth: From Walking to total-travel gap and will move ahead, Cars to Planes perhaps far ahead, in the future. The broad patterns of travel be- Although there is equality in total Bus travel in industrialized regions havior — increasing trip frequency, passenger miles traveled, annual per declined steadily to a share well trip distance, and travel expenditure capita travel is still about six times as under 10%, while it has risen else- as incomes rise — become evident in high in industrialized countries as where to about 45% — providing the the statistics of passenger transporta- elsewhere. preferred method of public trans- tion around the world. Between portation as railway use declines.

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Table 2-2. Growth in passenger-kilometers traveled

1950 1997 AAGR*, %/yr Per Total Per Total Per Total

Capita (billions) Capita (billions) Capita (billions) Industrialized 4,479 2,628 16,645 14,951 2.8 3.8 Regions Other Regions 373 717 2,627 12,998 4.2 6.4 World 1,334 3,345 4,781 27,949 2.8 4.6 Specific Segments United States 11,205 1,706 24,373 6,530 1.7 2.9 Western Europe 1,668 542 12,631 5,658 4.4 5.1 Former Soviet Union 705 127 4,152 1,250 3.8 5.0 China NA NA 1,313 1,634 NA NA India 348 125 1,457 1,392 3.1 5.3 Source: Updated database based on Schafer (1998). *Average Annual Growth Rate, 1950 to 1997. NA–Data not available.

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The share of travel by air or high- the automobile increased its share in These trends raise concerns about speed rail has grown rapidly in indus- traffic volume from 30% to 74%. the prospective growth of automo- trialized regions. Air travel is expected Since then, it has begun to decline bile travel in developing regions. to grow faster, measured as an annu- slightly because of the more rapidly Between 1950 and 1997, the world al percentage growth rate, than any increasing traffic volume of aircraft automobile fleet increased from 50 other travel mode in all regions dur- and high-speed rail. Experience in the to 580 million vehicles — a fivefold ing the next 20 years. Pacific OECD region, mainly Japan, increase in vehicles per capita. But was similar. The share of conventional the nondeveloped regions, despite railway traffic dropped from 80% in having about 85% of the world’s Focusing on motorized transport 1950 to some 30% in 1990. population, now have only about makes it easy to forget how much of 25% of those vehicles. Developing the world’s population travels on foot countries with low motorization rates or by bicycle. Walking or bicycling Some centrally planned economies (less than about one vehicle per 10 accounts for more than half of all checked the growth of automobiles inhabitants) but rapid economic trips made in a number of Indian by making it difficult or expensive to growth may add vehicles to their cities, and 60% to 90% of all trips in acquire private vehicles, yet even in fleets at very high rates — as high as many Chinese cities. In poorer rural those countries growth persisted, 10% to 30% per year, compared to areas, the dominance of nonmotor- driven by the almost universal desire typical rates below 5% for fully ized transport is even stronger. to have full control over personal developed countries. Rates of Although roughly one-third of all mobility. increase that rapid would make espe- “trips” are made on foot in OECD cially heavy demands for new infras- countries, the short trip lengths (gen- tructure and result in sharply higher erally well below one kilometer) result If the patterns of the developed emissions and congestion. in an almost negligible traffic volume. world repeat themselves in develop- Travel surveys suggest that walking ing nations, concerns about environ- accounts for less than 5% of total mental sustainability will increase. TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY passenger-kilometers in Western Large new capital investments in Some Vehicle Fundamentals European countries and merely 1/2% infrastructure will be needed, both in the United States. CO2 and other emissions will rise It takes energy to move mass — peo- rapidly, and the urban congestion ple and goods. In all vehicles, energy that is nearly ubiquitous will chal- is consumed to produce mechanical Implications for the Future lenge the very operability of the power in the engine. That power In the earliest years of industrial road system. In the highly dense drives the wheels of land vehicles, the development, bus and bicycle travel cities of China, India, and elsewhere propeller for a ship, or provides thrust increased to supplement walking and that depend heavily on pedestrian for a jet aircraft. This driving power animal transport. With further devel- and bicycle travel, substantial land- overcomes the resistances to vehicle opment, automobiles began making use changes would be necessary to motion: the air (or water) resistance inroads to the extent that money and relocate urban residents to less or drag, the rolling resistance of the traffic would bear. At the highest lev- dense neighborhoods and suburbs, tires on the roadway, the vehicle’s els of industrialization, the share of with required road and public trans- inertia as it accelerates, the incline of automobile travel peaks and may port links. a hill, and the high altitude to which decline as higher-speed, higher-cost a plane must ascend. Generally, the options are used more often. power required to accelerate vehicles One particular outcome of growing at rates that match drivers’ needs and mobility in the developing world will wants is much larger than the power Changes in travel demand during the be an increase in the use of energy required to drive at steady speed on a last 50 years in developed countries for transportation, and consequent level road. Air resistance is propor- give us a clue about likely future CO2 emissions, in a proportion tional to vehicle frontal area; the trends in other developing countries. greater than the increase in total pas- other resistances are proportional to Since 1950, the Western European senger-kilometers traveled. In the vehicle mass. Thus vehicle size and transportation system has been com- aggregate, developed countries now weight are critical parameters in pletely transformed. While buses and use about twice as much energy as determining vehicle energy use. railways accounted for 70% of total developing countries per average pas- traffic volume in 1950, their share senger-kilometer traveled. With the was only 15% in 1997, a decline decline of railroads, the option of In wheeled vehicles, the efficiency caused primarily by competition from using electricity for transportation with which the engine and drive train the automobile, with its flexibility of energy has also declined, thus convert fuel to power at the wheels schedule, comfort and convenience, increasing the almost-exclusive obviously also affects energy use. and higher door-to-door speed. reliance on liquid fuels. Efficiencies vary between the different Between 1950 and the early 1980s, engine and transmission technologies

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used in wheeled vehicles, and with by about four million vehicles per in selected body panels, plastic intake the type of driving practiced. In year over the past decade. manifolds replacing aluminum, and urban settings with frequent low- rubber bumpers replacing chromed speed driving and significant time steel). Manufacturers are also contin- spent idling, these efficiencies are In parallel with this growth in the uously introducing and refining new lower. Under higher-speed highway total market, vehicles have evolved, technologies. Exhaust catalyst systems driving conditions, these efficiencies as well. The engine, transmission, for emissions control, introduced in are higher. Table 2-3 illustrates these and body technologies are making the 1990s are now extremely effec- energy conversion efficiencies for typ- steady strides in sophistication and tive at reducing emissions. ical engines and drive trains. performance. The key vehicle Computers, sensors, and controls Reducing the energy consumption of attributes — performance, efficiency, improve the functionality of engines a vehicle thus requires some combi- ease of starting, driveability, range, and transmissions, and provide new nation of reduced vehicle weight, reliability and durability, convenience opportunities, such as anti-lock brak- size, or drag, or improved engine or and comfort, emissions, safety — ing systems and traction control, and transmission efficiency. have all improved significantly. At the such new convenience features as same time, the diversity of models automatic vehicle interior environ- available to the public — vehicle size, ment control and navigation systems. Historical Perspective configuration, style, purpose — has Improving vehicle features through Today’s transportation technologies increased substantially, too. This the use of new and improved tech- originated in the discovery of diversity is fueled by increasing afflu- nology is an important marketing petroleum in 1859, the invention of ence in the developed world, and by tool in an increasingly competitive the four-stroke spark-ignition engine the increased flexibility of modern industry. by Nicolaus Otto in 1876, the com- production processes. pression-ignition or diesel engine by Rudolf Diesel in 1892, and the jet Major improvements have also been engine by Frank Whittle in the 1930s. The oil crises in 1973 and 1979 pro- seen in heavy-duty trucks and aircraft. The high power per unit weight and vided a strong impetus for vehicle The former have been equipped with size of these engines, their compati- efficiency improvements. In the fol- more fuel-efficient engines and more bility with high energy density fuels lowing decade, the fuel economy of streamlined tractor units. The latter derived from petroleum, and the low new US passenger cars doubled. have seen higher-bypass jet engines, cost of both engines and fuels, have Since then, established technologies, the greater use of lighter materials, been the key requirements for large- such as gasoline spark-ignition and and the development of energy-sav- scale use of motorized transportation diesel engines and transmissions, con- ing technologies such as winglets. vehicles. tinue to improve steadily through Aircraft technology is discussed more incremental changes and the intro- fully in Chapter 5. duction of new technologies and The most ubiquitous transportation materials (e.g., engine power and Current Technology Status vehicle is the automobile. In 1950, torque per unit of displaced cylinder there were about 50 million cars on volume have been and are increasing This historical evolution of vehicles the world’s roads, 76% of them in about 1% per year). and technologies continues. As far as the United States. The global auto- light-duty personal vehicles are con- mobile fleet (including all four-wheel cerned, the trend is for more choice personal vehicles) is now about 600 New materials with better perfor- for customers along all dimensions, million. On average the fleet grew by mance and lighter weight, or lower and improved performance and func- more than 10 million vehicles per cost, continue to be introduced (e.g., tionality, often at reduced cost. year over this period. Simultaneously, aluminum and plastic replacing steel Although there is increasing diversity the truck and bus fleet grew by about 3.6 million vehicles per year. Although the growth rate has slowed Table 2-3. Typical engine and transmission efficiencies in the highly industrialized countries, Highway population growth and increased Technology Urban Driving Driving urbanization and industrialization are accelerating the use of motor vehicles Gasoline engine 10%–15% 25% elsewhere. Outside the United States, Diesel engine 15%–22% 35% the growth in automobiles is especially high, more than 8% per year. Automatic transmission 70%–80% 85% There are also approximately 100 mil- Manual transmission 85%–90% 90%–95% lion powered two-wheelers (two- Source: Weiss (2000). wheeled motorized vehicles) around Note: These efficiencies are energy flow out/energy flow in. For engines, the world, and they have increased energy flow out is the power, energy flow in is the fuel.

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in vehicle types, the technologies New propulsion system concepts are a significant contributor to the rela- used in these different types of vehi- also emerging. Most auto manufac- tively high levels of traffic-accident- cles are remarkably uniform. Smaller turers are planning a transition to 42- related fatalities in the parts of the land vehicles (motorcycles, cars, light volt electrical systems to improve the developing world where they are trucks) mostly use the cheaper gaso- efficiency of many on-board, electri- prevalent. line engine. Larger vehicles (buses, cally powered components. heavier trucks, rail) use the more effi- Significant improvements in fuel con- cient but heavier and more expensive sumption can be achieved by switch- There have been parallel but more diesel. In countries where fuel costs ing the engine off during idle. modest technological developments are high and taxes on diesel fuel are Integrated starter/generator systems in public transportation. Initiatives lower than taxes on gasoline, diesel that provide rapid engine restart include a new generation of light-rail engines are increasingly the buyer’s appear promising. Various types of vehicles (the Boeing Vertol LRT) in the choice in light-duty vehicles (e.g., in hybrid electric propulsion systems — United States, rubber-tired guided France and Germany between 33 and an internal combustion engine cou- systems built in Japan and France, 50% of new cars are powered by pled with a battery and motor/gener- and several monorails, constructed diesels). Both types of engine are ator — are the focus of intensive mainly in Japan. By and large these steadily improving in terms of perfor- industry efforts. Toyota and Honda innovations have had limited success; mance, efficiency, emissions, weight, have recently introduced hybrid sys- new systems and wholesale replace- smoothness, and reliability. Several tems into the passenger car market in ment technologies have thus far manufacturers recently put into pro- limited but significant numbers. largely failed to supplant traditional duction the direct-injection engine, a Other automotive manufacturers regimes. Where public transport new, more efficient type of gasoline have announced plans to start intro- shares automobile technologies, it has engine. Diesel engines are similarly ducing hybrids in cars, light trucks, benefited from manufacturers’ improving, especially by increasing and SUVs in the next couple of years. improved fuel efficiency, reduced their power with more efficient tur- In low-speed, stop-and-go urban driv- emissions, the increased use of more bochargers, and decreasing their ing (e.g., in Japan), these hybrids durable and lighter materials, and emission of pollutants. In light-duty offer large improvements in fuel effi- electronics in vehicles for communica- vehicles, diesels now provide perfor- ciency, albeit at a significant increase tions and control. mance that is as good as that with in initial vehicle cost. The fuel efficien- gasoline engines. cy benefits are still substantial but less under higher-speed driving condi- Buses have also benefited from tech- tions such as in the United States. nological innovations, but rarely are Due to current pressures to reduce One benefit of these more sophisti- these given the public attention fuel consumption, air pollution, and cated hybrid systems is the recovery focused on modern light rail, the CO2 emissions, substantial develop- of some of the vehicle’s kinetic energy newly arrived aristocrat of urban ment efforts directed toward these normally dissipated in braking. transportation. The most important objectives are under way within the innovations have to do with the automotive and allied industries. infrastructure used by buses. There Efforts to improve engine efficiency Another class of road vehicles widely are many instances, especially in Latin by variable valve timing, cylinder used in developing countries and in American cities and most Brazilian deactivation to reduce engine dis- parts of Europe where the climate is cities, of buses being provided with placement during normal driving, favorable comprises the relatively exclusive rights of way. Automatic reductions in engine friction and inexpensive motor scooters, small bus priority at intersections — accessory loads, and more sophisti- motor bicycles, and “three-wheelers.” widespread in Europe — is also a sig- cated engine management, all show These provide significantly greater nificant advance. Electronically guid- promising potential. Some of these mobility (and goods-moving capaci- ed buses have recently been devel- approaches, in their simpler form, are ty) than walking or bicycling, at costs oped but have yet to be proven in already in production. Improved effi- far below those of cars and light extended passenger service. ciency transmissions are being devel- trucks in industrialized countries. oped with more gears, and new con- Since these vehicles largely (but not cepts, such as continuously variable exclusively) use inexpensive two- The main change in passenger rail- transmissions and clutched automati- stroke gasoline engines, they have way technology since the 1970s is cally shifted manual transmissions are high emissions of air pollutants (espe- the spread of electrification and the being introduced. Vehicle weight cially VOCs) and noise. Their numbers introduction of high-speed rail. reduction, through material substitu- are substantial, some few hundred Automatic vehicle operations and tion and improved design, continues, million, and they are an important “moving block” signaling have been as does the reduction of drag low-cost component of transportation introduced, but have not yet pro- through more streamlined body systems in developing countries. They duced much improvement over the design and improved tires. are, however, much less safe in an best conventional technology. accident than standard cars, and are Despite the application of advanced

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technology in Western Europe, Japan, Air quality impact of automotive to contribute to global climate and North America, the traditional technology. As has been noted in change. Indeed, transportation’s Moscow Metro still sets the world Chapter 1, motor vehicles account for impact on the global climate goes standard with its 40 trains per track a large share of the air pollution in beyond the impact of vehicle emis- per hour and 99% reliability while our cities and surrounding metropoli- sions. Producing and distributing carrying more passengers than all the tan regions. Gasoline and diesel- automotive fuel, and producing, dis- urban rail systems in the United fueled engines are the major source tributing, maintaining, and recycling States put together. of hydrocarbon (HC), oxides of nitro- vehicles in themselves can produce gen (NOx, reacting in the atmo- significant greenhouse gas emissions. sphere to form ozone, which is dam- Analysis of such a “wells-to-wheels” Technological innovation in public aging to human health, materials, impact of petroleum-based gasoline transport has been limited, partly and vegetation), carbon monoxide and diesel fuels suggests that the because of issues of scale compared (CO), particulate matter, and (in combined energy production and with that of the automobile, and many urban regions outside the distribution efficiency is about 83% because the technology is fragment- OECD) lead. and 88%, respectively (Weiss et al. ed among countries, regions, and 2000). For some other fuels, the manufacturers. A few global groups energy losses and hence CO2 emis- emerged in the bus and, especially, Significant technological strides have sions are significantly larger. In addi- rail industries, where the economies been made in automotive technolo- tion, the energy required in the vehi- from consolidation are greater. If gy, with emissions from new vehicles cle manufacturing process is equal to healthy competition is maintained, in the most strictly controlled regions about 10% of the total energy that this should allow both enhanced 90% to 98% lower than they were will be used by the vehicle over its technological innovation and lower prior to control. Expectations are that lifetime. equipment purchase and mainte- emissions of air pollutants from vehi- nance costs. This trend is propelled cles will continue to decrease as by the privatization of public trans- stricter regulations are imposed, pri- Aside from a dramatic change in port operations. Private operators marily through the development of fuel — such as replacing petroleum have had to take a more commercial more effective exhaust catalyst sys- fuels with biomass-derived fuels — approach to purchasing, with less of tems. Important issues to be reducing CO2 emissions from trans- the customization and “buy local” addressed in reducing emissions are portation requires a reduction in the policies that contributed to this frag- the durability of these systems (solv- amount of fuel consumed. Better mentation in the past. ing the high emitter problem), their technology helps accomplish that increasing cost, and noble metal reduction by reducing vehicle resis- requirements. Also of concern are the tance to motion, and by converting Sustainability Challenges Posed constraints emissions requirements fuel energy more efficiently to by the Technologies of impose on developing more efficient mechanical energy at the wheels. Motorization gasoline engine technologies (exhaust Chapter 1 highlighted several disrup- after-treatment technologies typically tive impacts of motorization, such as reduce a vehicle’s fuel efficiency). For Vehicle resistances (mass or inertia, injuries and fatalities from traffic acci- diesel-engine vehicles, the develop- aerodynamic drag, tire-rolling resis- dents, local air pollution, global ment of effective exhaust treatment tance) have decreased and engine warming, noise, access for the non- technologies for particulates and NOx and transmission efficiencies have motorized, and long-lasting effects on is a very high priority. Implemen- increased over the past two decades, ecosystems through habitat interrup- tation of such technologies, however, following the oil crisis of the 1970s. tion and destruction. A subset of require simultaneous reduction in the However, in the developed world the these sustainability challenges are sulphur content of the diesel fuel. benefits of these changes have been related directly to the technologies Expectations are that such technolo- partly offset by increases in vehicle used to manufacture and operate gies are likely to be developed and size and performance. New types of motor vehicles. The operation of implemented over the next decade. vans and sport utility vehicles, which combustion engines produces efflu- However, it will take time for them to enjoy wide popularity in North ents and CO2 emissions that increase become robust enough for extensive America and more recently in Europe, the concentration of greenhouse use in the market. exacerbate the trend to increased gases in the atmosphere; consume vehicle size, weight, and fuel con- oil, which is a nonrenewable sumption. resource; and generate noise pollu- Global climate change impact of tion. The manufacture of vehicles automotive technology. In addi- requires the use of large volumes of tion to the consumption of In the near future, it is anticipated materials ranging from iron, steel, petroleum, a nonrenewable resource, that vehicle fuel consumption could and aluminum, to lead, platinum, the combustion of petroleum-based potentially be reduced significantly and palladium. fuels produces CO2, which is thought through evolutionary improvements

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in engines, transmissions, and vehicle and, in some isolated cases, to the The Rise and (Partial) materials and design. Technology availability or cost of sufficient natu- Fall of Lead in Gasoline improvements such as material substi- ral resources. Iron and steel remain tution and other weight reduction the primary structural materials, but Awareness of the environmental measures, development of increasing- increasing amounts of plastic, alu- and health woes stemming from ly higher power and more efficient minum, and fiber composites are exposure to lead has resulted in its engines, and changes that improve used. Vehicle manufacturers regularly phaseout from gasoline in most of transmission efficiency and use more change the materials they use as part the industrialized world and in efficient engine operating regimes, of ongoing efforts to reduce cost, increasing parts of the developing are all continuing. In turn, vehicles reduce weight, and to accommodate world. Compounds of lead were will steadily become more efficient regulatory requirements. Advanced first added to gasoline in the 1920s over the next decade and beyond as higher-strength steels are permitting in order to increase octane number these technologies are refined. a reduction in the weight of steel and thus allow engines to operate used for the same strength. at higher compression ratios and higher efficiencies. However, the There are, however, some trade-offs lead was discharged into the atmo- between fuel consumption improve- A critical consideration is the ability sphere with exhaust gases from the ments that can be achieved and the to recycle the materials in vehicles at engine. Because of increasing mandated emissions reduction the end of their lifetimes. Producing awareness of lead’s toxicity, espe- requirements. In the United States, at virgin material usually consumes cially to children, steps to reduce least, it has been claimed that the more energy than using recycled lead discharges were taken, first in continued tightening of NOx stan- materials. A conspicuous example is the Soviet Union in 1967, when dards will make it impossible to use aluminum. About 220 Megajoules the sale of leaded gasoline was diesels in passenger cars, even with (MJ) of energy are needed to pro- banned in some large cities. In the improved NOx exhaust treatment. duce one kilogram of virgin alu- United States, significant phase-out Very strict emissions standards in minum; about 40 MJ are needed for of lead in gasoline began in 1974, California are set for the next decade recycled aluminum. This particular when fuel suppliers were required to continue to achieve reductions in example is important, as well as to offer at least one grade of total fleet emissions. Future standards being conspicuous, since more alu- unleaded gasoline. The motive was for the United States nationwide, minum is likely to be used in future not only to reduce human expo- Japan, and Europe also tighten sub- vehicles in order to reduce weight sure to lead, but to make possible stantially. The use of the more effi- and fuel consumption. the use of catalytic converters on cient diesel engine in light-duty vehi- vehicles to reduce other pollutants cles could well be restricted by some in exhaust gases. Lead in gasoline of these requirements, until effective At present, a considerable percent- poisoned the catalysts in the con- exhaust emissions treatment technol- age of all ferrous metals are recycled verters, making the converters inef- ogy for diesels is developed. in the automotive industry (about fective, as well as poisoning peo- 95% in the United States), although ple. The phaseout of lead contin- not all of it is reused in vehicles ued, and was completed in the Beyond these anticipated evolution- (about 25% to 30% in the United United States in 1996, when all use ary improvements in vehicle fuel States); much goes to less demand- of leaded gasoline in highway vehi- consumption (reduction by about ing applications. Smaller fractions of cles was banned. Similar phaseouts one-third in 20 years, at constant other materials are recycled. As have occurred, usually more slowly, vehicle performance), incorporating mandatory recycling becomes more in other industrialized countries. new technology (e.g., lighter materi- common around the world to con- However, lead is still widely used in als such as aluminum and hybrid serve energy, resources, and landfill many developing countries propulsion systems) can provide space, vehicle manufacturers are because it is a cheaper and more additional fuel consumption reduc- expected to respond with materials efficient way of increasing gasoline tions (a further reduction of up to and recycling technologies that octane number than the alterna- one-third below the anticipated evo- increase the levels and efficiency of tives available. lutionary improvements). recycling. For instance, it is likely that uses will have to be found for the less recycled plastics and shred- fuel cell propulsion systems become Challenges posed by vehicle der residue materials where currently common, the platinum-group metals manufacturing processes. The recycling economics are unfavorable. used for catalysts in fuel cell systems manufacture of motor vehicles raises will have to be almost entirely recov- sustainability questions related to ered and recycled; known natural energy use in the manufacturing pro- Although availability of traditional resources are insufficient for complete cess, CO2 emitted in the production materials is not a major issue, avail- virgin supply. and fabrication of these materials, ability of new materials could be. If

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Vehicle Emissions batteries cannot realistically be elimi- until the expansion of road infrastruc- Reduction — A Qualified nated in the near future. Likewise for ture and vehicles in the first half of Success refrigerants in vehicle air conditioning the twentieth century that petroleum systems; the CFCs (or HFCs) have production expanded dramatically. Emission standards for cars were first potent greenhouse effects if allowed Production during the second half of introduced in the United States and to escape into the atmosphere rather the century increased even more Japan around 1970, followed shortly than being safely recovered. rapidly as a result of economic devel- thereafter in Europe. These require- opment around the world and the ments have been steadily made discovery of large new low-cost more stringent every few years. The ENERGY FOR TRANSPORTATION sources of petroleum in the Middle state of California, with its severe East (Table 2-4). smog problems in Los Angeles, has That petroleum-based fuels are far forced the pace with the strictest and away the leading source of ener- standards for emissions of non- gy for transportation is the central The price of crude oil, traditionally methane hydrocarbons or organic fact that dominates all discussion of expressed around the world in US gases (NMOG) and oxides of nitro- energy and transportation. Every dollars per barrel, has not followed gen (NOx), the critical ingredients in vehicle requires energy to move. In production in a continuous upward forming photochemical smog. order to supply that energy, more path. Average prices experienced Today’s California emissions stan- than one liter of petroleum is con- large and sometimes rapid fluctua- dards for these pollutants are about sumed each day, on average, for each tions during the past quarter century. 1% and 6%, for NMOG and NOx, of the six billion humans on earth. In Since 1973, the price of crude oil respectively, of the precontrol grams- the industrialized countries, trans- (expressed in constant 1998 dollars) per-mile vehicle emission rates. portation consumes more than half of has ranged from a low of $12 to a These large reductions have been all petroleum used for all purposes. In high of $63 (EIA/US DOE 2000). achieved in part by reducing the developing countries the share is less Prices fluctuate within that range over emissions from the conventional than half, but it is rising and is short time intervals. For example, gasoline-fueled internal combustion expected to be at least half within a they tripled between December 1998 engine but primarily by developing decade. and August 2000 — provoking public catalysts, sensors, and control sys- demonstrations in Western Europe tems, that get rid of all but a few and the United States. Price instability percent of the emissions leaving the Not only does transportation need a is likely to continue, since the prices engine. This per-vehicle emissions great deal of oil, it needs very little buyers are willing to pay for crude oil reduction is an impressive success energy except oil. Fuels derived from are highly sensitive to their expecta- story. However, its impact on urban petroleum (crude oil) now account tions about imbalances between sup- air quality is partly offset because it for more than 96% of all the energy ply and demand — both of which are takes some 15 years for the older, used in transportation, a trend that is sensitive to changing economic and higher-emitting cars to be retired not expected to decrease (IEA political forces. Therefore, predictions from the in-use vehicle fleet because 2000b). Other sources of transporta- about future oil prices are uncertain of steady growth in vehicle miles tion energy — coal, natural gas, alco- at best; there has been little “trend” traveled, and due failures in the hols, electric power — have been sig- for guidance about the future. emission control technology in a nificant in particular places or times, small fraction of vehicles. On-the- but all have been minor fractions of road surveillance indicates that the total. For many years, mobility About 41% of all current oil produc- 5%–10% of the cars in use are has relied almost entirely on the avail- tion originates in the 11 member responsible for half the total fleet ability of petroleum fuels — gasoline, countries — Venezuela, Nigeria, and emissions. Future regulations — both diesel fuel, jet fuel, and bunker (ship) Indonesia, plus eight countries in the stricter emissions standards (five fuel. There is little likelihood of great- Middle East and North Africa — of times stricter than today’s) and the ly reducing that dependence for the Organization of Petroleum requirement for extensive on-board many years to come even though Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC diagnostics to identify failures — are consumption of these fuels indefinite- countries also hold 77% of the intended to offset growth and deal ly at the expected levels of demand is world’s reserves of crude oil (BP with the “high-emitter” problem. unsustainable. 2000). OPEC members meet periodically to agree on the total amount of oil they will produce in an attempt to Petroleum Supply, Price, and A final sustainability issue in recycling keep market price in some target Trends is preventing escape of harmful mate- range that responds to the expected rials into the environment. For exam- The birth of the oil industry dates balance of supply and demand. The ple, lead is a toxic material whose use from the discovery of oil by “Colonel” price at which large producers sell in gasoline is being eliminated Drake while drilling a well in their crude oil may have little to do around the world, but whose use in Pennsylvania in 1859, but it wasn’t with the cost of production. In the

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spring of 2001, Saudi Arabia, the Many analysts expect that the domi- site. Natural gas is largely methane, a world’s largest crude oil producer, nance of petroleum fuels for trans- gas with about 21 times the potency sold oil for about $25 per barrel; it portation will have to begin declining of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, and costs about $1 to $3 per barrel to at some time in the future, but the therefore its release unburned can be find, develop, and lift that oil to the real debate is about when. That a significant contributor to global terminal (IEA 2000c). expectation is driven by two main warming. considerations of sustainability: climate change through greenhouse Assuming a crude oil price of $25 per warming and resource availability. Resource availability is a concern, as barrel, countries that import crude oil there is a continuously rising demand (most countries in the world) transfer for crude oil that cannot be satisfied about $350 billion a year to the In addition to the CO2 emissions indefinitely and economically by countries that export crude oil — from burning petroleum fuels in the exploiting the currently estimated about 30 countries with significant vehicle, there are additional sources resources of petroleum in the earth. exports — for the 38 million barrels a of energy consumption and CO2 that Some other sources of transportation day they buy. In addition, consuming can be attributed to transportation energy are believed to be necessary countries import and pay for about fuels. One source is the energy used, eventually, with a serious transition 16 million barrels a day of refined and accompanying CO2 emitted, in beginning in the next 20 to 50 years products. That total transfer of funds producing petroleum, refining it, and (e.g., Economist 2001b; US DOE can be a burden on poorer countries delivering finished fuels to the vehicle 2001). Linked to “availability” is the and motivates the effort to use tank. As already noted, that energy is fact that 65% of the world’s known indigenous fuels, if possible. Even the equal to about 10% to 15% of the reserves of conventional petroleum United States, the world’s second energy of the delivered fuel. Another are located in the Middle East (BP largest crude oil producer, currently source is the release or flaring of nat- 2000), and there is concern about the spends about 1% of its GDP on ural gas that is unavoidably produced rest of the world being so dependent imported petroleum and products. along with petroleum in some oil on such a politically volatile region. fields, gas that cannot be used at the Natural resources other than conven-

The cost of fuel to consumers is made Table 2-4. World production of crude oil up of four elements: the cost of crude oil to the refiner; the cost of refining the crude oil to final product fuels; Production the cost of distributing that fuel from (million Year tonnes/year) the refinery to the vehicle tank; and the taxes (or subsidies) imposed by 1875 1 governments on the fuel. For exam- 1900 21 ple, assuming crude oil prices of $22 per barrel, Table 2-5 shows the com- 1925 149 position of the ex-tax cost of the fuel 1950 525 in the United States. 1975 2,635 2000 ~3,700 Although the ex-tax cost is 23 to 26 2020 ~5,600 cents per liter in the United States, Sources: BP (1977), EIA/ US DOE (2001). taxes may increase the consumer cost to as much as $1.00 per liter, as in the UK. Consumer cost may be even less than 23 cents in those develop- Table 2-5. Ex-tax consumer cost of fuels in the ing countries where fuel costs to con- United States sumers are subsidized by the government; in Nigeria the recent pump Diesel price of gasoline was 18 cents per Gasoline Fuel liter (Economist 2001a). Fuel taxes or (cents per liter) subsidies are instruments of public policy that may have multiple objec- Crude Oil 14 14 tives, such as raising revenue or Refining 8 5 encouraging one fuel versus another Distribution _4 _4 through lower taxes; for example, France and Germany tax diesel fuel at Total 26 23 only about half the rate of gasoline. Source: Weiss (2000).

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Refining and Quality of tional petroleum can also be used to Petroleum Transportation Fuels Table 2-7 shows that, paralleling make transportation fuels (see feature recent trends, there will be increas- boxes), and that somewhat eases con- Before crude oil can be used for ing demand for highway fuels cerns about “running out” of oil. transportation, it must be refined into (gasoline and diesel fuel) during the products suited for particular types of next 20 years or so, and that the engines, such as gasoline spark-igni- rates of increase will be more than The possibilities of moving away tion engines or diesel compression- twice as fast in developing countries from petroleum-like fuels based on ignition engines. Most refineries are (4.7% to 4.8% per year) as in indus- any fossil raw materials are widely located in oil-consuming countries, trialized countries (1.3 % to 1.7% debated and analysts are not likely to and crude oil is carried to those coun- per year). Furthermore, there is an reach a broad consensus in the near tries from oil-producing countries in especially rapid rise in the demand future. In the meantime, oil use pipelines or large oil tankers. for air mobility, which should cause grows apace. Both the International world jet-fuel consumption to rise Energy Agency (IEA 2000b) and the by 4% per year compared to 2.4% US Department of Energy (EIA/DOE Crude oil is a natural mixture of a and 3.2% per year for gasoline and 2001) project that world demand for vast number of individual chemical diesel fuel respectively. All of these transportation fuels (almost entirely compounds; most of them are hydro- changes will require not only addi- petroleum) will grow at 2.5% and carbons (compounds containing only tional crude oil production but also 2.8% per year respectively for the carbon and hydrogen), but other new refining capacity. next 20 years (see Table 2-6). Those compounds contain additional atoms growth rates result in a doubling of such as sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen. demand in 25 to 28 years. Future It is the objective of refining technol- Highway fuels — gasoline for spark- world oil prices are seen somewhat ogy to sort out and modify the natu- ignition engines and diesel fuel for differently by the two agencies, at ral petroleum compounds into compression-ignition engines — will $27 per barrel and $22 per barrel groups that function best in their end remain dominant, with a total respectively. It is no criticism of these uses as fuel and other products. demand three to four times the total agencies to note that historically, Refineries produce many products, demand for non-highway fuels. most predictions of long-term prices including the main transportation Gasoline is more volatile than diesel have been less than accurate. fuels. The nature and volumes of fuel. It has a median boiling point of those products depend on the type about 70°C to 125°C compared to of crude oil refined, the refinery about 240°C to 300°C for diesel; the IEA’s most recent World Energy equipment available, and the ranges reflect the fact that optimum Outlook (IEA 2000b) expresses con- demand from customers. Over the boiling points depend on climate, cern about the CO2 impacts resulting years, refiners have had to accommo- with lower boiling points preferred in from the increase in transportation date not only overall growth in colder climates. The two fuels also dif- energy demand in the “business-as- demand but differences in growth fer in average chemical composition, usual” reference case reflected in rates among fuels and among coun- which largely controls the ignition Table 2-6. In an alternative scenario, tries. Large changes in demand are characteristics of the fuel. Better gaso- IEA concludes that a combination of not easy to accommodate rapidly. lines have higher octane numbers that taxes, regulations, better technology, Refineries are complex and capital- permit combustion to occur smoothly and demand restraint could stabilize intensive, so lead time is required for and in a controlled way in the engine. CO2 emissions after 2010 — but with both design and construction of new Better diesel fuels have higher cetane unspecified effects on mobility. equipment. numbers that permit the fuel to ignite

Table 2-6. World oil demand and price, 2020

IEA EIA

(OECD, (US DOE, Units Paris) Washington) Oil price 1999 US$ 27.04 22.41 Total oil demand MB/day 114.7 119.6 Total growth, 1998–2020 %/year 1.9 2.3 Transport oil demand MB/day 57.8 ~63* Transport oil growth, %/year 2.5 2.8 1998–2020 Source: EIA/ US DOE (2001). *Assumes 96% of EIA transportation energy is oil.

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Table 2-7. Recent and projected world transportation fuel demand (million barrels/ per day)

Industrialized Countries Other Countries Fuel 1990 1999 2020* Growth* 1990 1999 2020* Growth* Gasoline 11.2 13.1 17.3 1.3% 3.8 4.9 12.5 4.7% Diesel fuel 5.2 6.6 9.5 1.7% 3.0 4.5 12.0 4.8% Jet fuel 2.5 3.0 5.6 2.9% 1.1 1.2 4.3 6.1% Bunker fuel 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.5% 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.6% Source: EIA/US DOE (2001). Notes: “Industrialized Countries” include North America, Western Europe, Japan, and Australasia. Growth = % per year from 1999 to 2020. * Indicates estimate. as quickly as possible after injection expected in most other industrialized Although petroleum dominates into the engine. In general, the types countries. worldwide, other transportation fuels of molecules that have high octane can be significant locally. Examples numbers also have low cetane num- are ethanol from sugar cane in Brazil, bers, and vice versa. It is possible that more changes in the and ethanol from maize in the quality of petroleum fuels will be United States. Fuels derived from required in the future to satisfy new natural gas, such as hydrogen or Over the years, the quality of many environmental regulations. These may methanol or dimethyl ether, have transportation fuels has changed, require new refinery investments. It is also been proposed (e.g. IEA 1999) sometimes because of new require- also likely that quality will eventually and tested. None has yet command- ments for operating improved be upgraded in the developing coun- ed a commercially significant market, engines, but often because of new tries, where requirements are current- but hydrogen is clearly a leading environmental requirements to ly less demanding than in the indus- contender for the “ultimate” fuel reduce emissions resulting from the trialized countries. The case of remov- from an environmental point of view, use of those fuels. ing lead from gasoline, cited earlier, is if technical and economic barriers an example. can be reduced sufficiently.

A current example is the required Nonpetroleum Transportation reduction of sulfur in both gasoline Past and existing uses of non- Energy and diesel fuel over the next ten petroleum fuels are often motivated years, with the objective of reducing The overall role of nonpetroleum by particular national circumstances emissions from vehicle exhaust, pri- fuels in supplying energy for trans- that cannot be applied to many other marily by reducing the deterioration portation can be illustrated by countries. For example, cheap indige- of catalysts. New regulations in the International Energy Agency data for nous coal is used to power railroads United States will reduce sulfur in 1998 (see Table 2-8). The table in countries in mainland Asia where gasoline to 30 parts per million shows world consumption of gas, there are limited supplies of indige- (0.003%) and in diesel fuel to 15 electricity, and coal — the three nous oil, and where spending foreign parts per million (0.0015%). In the major nonpetroleum fuels — as a exchange on oil imports is avoided if European Union, the limit for both percentage of world consumption of practicable. Another example is using fuels will be 10 parts per million petroleum for transportation. ethanol from sugar cane in gasoline (0.001%). Similar changes are blends in Brazil in order to reduce imports of oil and to provide employment in a massive sugar-cane grow- Table 2-8. World transportation energy ing and conversion industry. use, 1998

Natural gas (NG) is used more Consumption as extensively for transportation. Most Energy Source % of Petroleum of this natural gas is used to power Natural Gas 2.4 compressors on pipelines rather than Electricity 1.2 in vehicles. A recent status review (EIA/DOE 2001) states that there are Coal 0.4 now more than a million NG vehi- Source: IEA (2000b). cles on the road worldwide, with the

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largest fleets in Argentina (600,000) Developments in Fuel-Cell Technology and Italy (345,000). Natural gas is also used to fuel buses where local Major efforts are underway to develop fuel-cell propulsion systems for land transporta- authorities believe it will improve air tion vehicles. With hydrogen as fuel, this technology has the potential for increasing pollution. Vehicles built to use natu- propulsion system efficiency with very low levels of air pollutant emissions. Most of the ral-gas fuel cost more than gasoline major auto manufacturers, joined by companies in the supplier industry and major vehicles, have shorter driving ranges, petroleum companies, are working to develop fuel-cell technology for light-duty vehi- and are less convenient for cus- cles and buses. Fuel-cell systems and concept vehicles (cars and buses) are being tomers during refueling; as a result, aggressively developed and tested with steadily improving performance. Although lim- government-subsidized programs ited numbers of fleet vehicles may be available within the next five years, these efforts around the world have had mixed are largely focused on the longer term, where the very low emissions and high efficien- success.3 Despite these cost issues, cy of direct-hydrogen-fueled fuel cells may become important. Many technology issues programs to reduce air pollution in involving cost, size and weight, practicality, and hydrogen storage must still be congested urban areas have encour- resolved. An overriding issue is the feasibility of introducing a hydrogen fuel production aged the use of CNG-fueled vehicles and distribution infrastructure. A critical unanswered question is whether hydrogen can in recent years. be efficiently enough produced, distributed, and stored on the vehicle, without pro-

ducing significant CO2 emissions.

CNG is not an option for vehicles Hydrogen, like electricity, is an energy carrier and not a primary energy source. such as heavy trucks, railroad locomo- Electricity has been hampered as an automotive energy source because of poor battery tives, towboats, and ocean-going technology and high cost. Hydrogen is of interest because it may be easier to store ships, which require engines that are onboard a vehicle than electricity; today, much frontier research is focused on larger than those capable of using improved hydrogen storage technologies. Long term, electricity may be generated 100% natural gas. Natural gas cannot without fossil energy use (or with sequestration of carbon emissions), and hydrogen self-ignite; used alone, it can be used may be generated from fossil sources with sequestration of emissions or from electroly- only in a spark-ignition engine. sis of water. In the latter case, conversion of electricity to hydrogen for transportation However, the thermodynamic proper- use will depend on issues like cost and the competitive advantage of hydrogen storage ties of spark-ignition engines put an over battery storage. upper limit on their power output. Most larger and heavier vehicles must therefore use some type of compres- Petroleum-Like Fuels without Petroleum sion-ignition engine. Progress has been made in developing “dual-fuel” Traditional liquid transportation fuels, such as gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel, are usually compression-ignition engines, which produced by refining the natural fossil resource of petroleum (crude oil). From time to have virtually the same power charac- time, as crude oil prices have increased or as questions have arisen about the adequacy teristics as “conventional” diesels, and of crude oil supply in the long term, other fossil resources have been considered for use a relatively small amount of diesel making fuels. Among those resources have been tars and natural gas, both with the fuel as an igniter, but obtain most of potential to provide large additions to fuels available from conventional petroleum. For their energy from either CNG or liq- example, Canada’s National Energy Board states that more than 300 billion barrels of uefied natural gas (LNG). recoverable tar exist in Alberta. Suncor Energy, a company now producing oil from that tar, claims it can be produced for less than $10 per barrel (NY Times 2001a). That amount of Alberta tar exceeds Saudi Arabia’s reserves of 264 billion barrels (BP 2000), As noted above, alternatives to which constitute 25% of the world’s conventional petroleum reserves. As another petroleum fuels are often proposed in example, Shell is planning to construct a plant in Egypt to convert natural gas to diesel order to achieve superior environ- fuel at a cost that would be competitive with crude oil priced at $15 per barrel (World mental performance. Whether or not Fuels Today 2000). World reserves of natural gas are about equal in energy content to that objective will be achieved world reserves of conventional petroleum, so the potential supply is very large. The requires a life-cycle assessment of the prospective use of alternative fossil resources like tar or natural gas may help reassure

total system, i.e., consideration of not us about long-term fuel supply. However, CO2 emissions from manufacture and use of only how the fuel behaves in the fuels from those alternatives will be no lower and are likely to be higher than from vehicle — how much energy is used crude oil. and how large the emissions are — but also how much energy is consumed and how much pollution gases (other than greenhouse gases) tants from operating existing vehicles results from producing the fuel and from vehicle operation, gases that can be high and can have significant delivering it to the vehicle. contain pollutants such as NOx and effects, especially in congested urban particulates. Technologies for new areas around the world. Changes in vehicles and fuels should be able to quality of the petroleum fuel alone The type and quality of fuel also reduce those pollutants to sustainable can have only modest effects on affect the composition of exhaust levels. However, emissions of pollu- emissions from the existing fleet.

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Beyond environmental considera- offer lessons on the costs and bene- 1999 compared the relative pur- tions, an alternative fuel must be fits of motorization, and how to chase, maintenance, and oper- competitive in cost and have no char- avoid the most deleterious costs. ating costs of diesel- to natural- acteristics that would cause it to be Whether the developing nations can gas-powered buses in the rejected by customers and other learn from those lessons depends on United States. The GAO deter- stakeholders in the automotive sys- a delicate balance of technological mined that public transport system: fuel and vehicle producers and advances and political will power. tems that operate full-sized distributors, and governments at all Corporations are racing to produce CNG (compressed natural gas) levels. For example, there can be real more efficient engines that will be buses pay approximately 15% or perceived problems with fuel safe- powered by cleaner, renewable fuels. to 25% more for them, on aver- ty or toxicity, and time and conve- Yet it is unclear that commercially age, than for similar diesel nience of refueling. Most experts viable alternatives to petroleum- buses, though some of this dif- agree that there will be large barriers powered internal combustion ference may be due to the to the widespread use of alternatives engines can be mass-produced in lower volume of CNG buses. to fuels derived from petroleum or the near future. Until they are, the Maintenance costs for many other fossil resources. Nonetheless, urban leaders, especially those of the (but not all) CNG bus operators those barriers will have to be over- rapidly growing megacities like exceeded those for diesel buses come eventually in order to have a Shanghai, Bangkok, Mexico City, (GAO 1999). sustainable transportation system. and Johannesburg, need to plan and Therefore, work on such alternatives build neighborhoods and commer- as biomass-derived fuels and carbon- cial districts that will not be totally free production of hydrogen and dependent on the automobile. electricity deserves high priority.

NOTES CONCLUSIONS 1. There is no agreed-upon defini- If past is prologue, the patterns of tion of “megacity.” Some mobility demand, technology, and sources define it as a city with a energy use that emerged in the twen- population of 5 million. The tieth century are bound to repeat World Resources Institute uses a themselves in the twenty-first. The cutoff point of 8 million. This global population is rising, especially report will adopt the definition in the developing world, and people used by the United Nations, i.e., are migrating to cities and their sub- any city with a population of urbs at a steady pace. Incomes are over 10 million. rising, fueling more demand for faster travel. The overwhelmingly most 2. Some of the variation in urban- popular means of transport is the ization levels across countries automobile, which indicates that its stems from differences in the unfortunate side effects — accidents, definition across countries of congestion, air and noise pollution, what constitutes “urban.” We environmental damage, and increas- have used data developed by ing reliance on finite reserves of the UN Population Division petroleum — will proliferate on a (UN 2001). global scale. Evidence from China and other rapidly motorizing regions 3. One barrel, the traditional unit strongly suggests that this will be the of measure in the oil industry, is case, with adverse consequences for equal to 42 US gallons. There the operational, social, economic, are 7 to 8 barrels per ton for and environmental sustainability of major crude oils. Crude oils pro- their citizens’ mobility. duced from different locations can differ greatly in quality, and prices per barrel reflect those Yet it is not certain or preordained differences in quality; prices that all of these glum predictions will cited here are averages. come to pass, and that the new century must repeat all of the errors of 3. Experiences vary, but a report its predecessor. The industrialized published by the US General cities of Europe and North America Accounting Office in December

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In virtually all urban areas of the developed world, the automobile plays the dominant role in providing urban mobility. Public transport is still very important, especially in Europe and Japan. But its share of total developed-world passenger miles has been falling almost everywhere. Auto ownership and use has grown substantially over the last 50 years throughout the developed world. This, in turn, has enabled urban areas to decline in average population density, further damaging public transport’s competitiveness. Technology has enabled some reduction in the total transportation-related emissions of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds; however, slow fleet turnover, lack of proper maintenance, changes in the mix of light- duty vehicles, and increased driving has kept the reduction in total emissions well below the reduction in new vehicle emissions. Transport-related emissions of carbon dioxide have not declined. Improvements in fuel efficiency of new vehicles have been more than offset by increases in the total number of vehicles, changes in vehicle mix, and increases in vehicle utilization. Accident rates have decreased as vehicles and roads have improved. Congestion appears to be increasing, though truly comparable cross-national data on congestion are difficult to find. A range of strategies is being tried in different urban areas to offset the adverse impacts of motor vehicles. These include restrictions on central city auto use, traffic “calming,” the promotion of carpooling, and various approaches to promoting the increased use of public transportation. Technology is showing how to increase the capacity of existing highway infrastructure, and interest in the use of congestion charges and pollution charges seems to be growing.

For the purposes of the discussion in this chapter and the next, we have distinguished between the “developed” and the “developing” world. By the former, we mean primarily the 25 countries that constituted the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development prior to 1994: North America (except for Mexico), Western Europe with Scandinavia and Turkey, Japan, and Australasia (except for New Guinea).

Of course, the broadly similar indicia of economic development that distinguish these countries from the rest of the world do not necessarily imply a comparable degree of homogeneity in their urban development patterns or their transportation characteristics. The urbanized regions of these countries encompass a wide spectrum of cities, ranging from such mega- lopolises as Tokyo, New York, Osaka, Los Angeles, London, Istanbul, and Paris, down to much smaller, less dense, and much more disparate metropolitan areas. Even that short list of major urban agglomerations spans quite a diversity of physical and economic development patterns. In many ways, no two cities in the same country are alike, let alone two cities across the world from each other. Can one validly speak of Ankara, Barcelona, Cork, New York, San Francisco, Venice, Wellington, and York in the same breath?

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Nonetheless, despite our inevitably mobility can be sustained in the in a selection of cities across the oversimplistic division of the world future. Although the details of these developed world, clearly indicates the into two domains, there are a num- concerns may vary somewhat across dominant role of the automobile in ber of major, relevant consistencies the different countries of the devel- providing urban mobility. In the across the developed world — in oped world, the scope of the prob- developed world, the private vehicle consumer aspirations and behaviors, lem, the history of its evolution, the has become the most common form in passenger transportation trends, options that have been considered, of motorized transportation, account- and in the structure of the problems and the current state of play are ing for about 40% of passenger-kilo- with which transportation planners broadly similar across these nations. meters traveled in Tokyo and over and policymakers must grapple. As 95% of passenger-kilometers traveled we shall see, not all of these similari- in the cities of the United States. ties are qualitatively different from In this chapter, we will highlight the Public transport has a smaller role, the situation in the developing world, important mobility trends, the related albeit a very significant and impor- but there do tend to be sharp differ- sustainability issues, and comment on tant one, especially in Western ences of scale, social and political the approaches that have been sug- Europe and Japan. constraints, and financial resources gested and tried. A major focus of our that justify speaking separately about effort is to develop some understand- Urban Decentralization and the two domains. ing of the important commonalities Automobility: Two Mutually across the developed world, as well as Reinforcing Trends the significant differences relating to With respect to mobility, the most mobility and sustainability. Two interrelated urban trends are characteristic feature of countries in Developing such an understanding is observed almost universally in the the developed world is the high level key to determining how useful and developed world. First, the popula- of ownership and use of private applicable different approaches may tions and economic activities of the motor vehicles for personal travel, a be. cities have tended to disperse to out- phenomenon we will characterize as lying areas and, consequently, “automobility.” These countries are metropolitan areas have spread out, further characterized by extensive TRENDS IN URBAN MOBILITY IN with lower-density development at suburban development and the gen- THE DEVELOPED WORLD the fringes. Second, ownership and erally declining role of public trans- use of automobiles within and port. These shared mobility trends Figure 3-1, which provides an around urban areas have increased. have produced shared concerns overview of the contribution of the At the individual level, these trends about whether comparable levels of major modes of transport to mobility have been driven by a strong aspira-

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tion of city dwellers toward both trip-making opportunities expand Rising auto ownership and use. lower-density living and increased through the construction of new Combining complete route and personal travel as their incomes roads. schedule flexibility with comfort, increase in real terms, and their

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privacy, and speed, automobiles sym- the cities of the developed world In the early 1900s, the fixed patterns bolize to their users a very high level after World War II. Table 3-1 details and limited capacities of the street of mobility, significantly superior to the population shifts in a number of railways limited the expansion of sub- that offered by any competing means cities as residential suburbs blos- urbs, but the growth of automobile of travel. In the decades following somed and inner-city neighborhoods ownership, and the suburban road World War II, rising incomes and the wilted. A few cities have enjoyed networks built to accommodate it, widespread availability of affordable some population increases, due to accelerated the growth of suburbs automobiles produced sharp increas- the redevelopment of their urban dramatically. es in the number of automobile own- cores, but these renewals have almost ers in the cities of the developed never been enough to offset the world. The United States is the most overall decreases in population and The suburban migration was rein- extreme case of this trend, with a density. forced in some countries by national registered motor vehicle for nearly policies encouraging home owner- every licensed driver. As Figure 3-2 ship. As people moved to the sub- shows, however, automobile owner- Urban residents seeking more space urbs, their employers and retail mer- ship levels are high all across the and privacy began to move to the chants followed. Cheap land was also developed world, and have been ris- suburbs as soon as urban train sys- a factor in drawing many businesses ing steadily in the last four decades. tems and affordable housing made to the suburbs, where they could eas- Further, as Figure 3-3 shows, automo- that possible. Beginning in London in ily offer ample and free parking. In an bile use, as defined by annual passen- the 1850s and spreading across environment characterized by ger-kilometers traveled per person, is Europe, people followed the new widespread auto ownership, public also high and has been increasing train systems out of the urban core. transport accessibility is no longer a across the entire developed world. By the early twentieth century, significant factor in the location deci- “streetcar suburbs” were widespread sions of these firms. as people sought to leave the crowd- A drive toward the suburbs. The ed, noisy, malodorous, and frequently rise in automobile ownership and use unhealthful housing conditions of the The dispersal of residences and jobs parallels, and is deeply intertwined inner city for cheaper housing in affected the geographic pattern of with, the growth of suburbs around more peaceful surroundings. travel demands. Instead of the very

Table 3-1. The growth of selected metropolitan areas, 1960–1990

Data for 1990 Annual Rate of Change, 1960–1990

Metropolitan Population Area Density Area (thousands) (km2) (persons/km2) Population Area Density Tokyo 31,797 4,480 7,097 +2.4% +3.1% -0.6% New York 16,044 7,690 2,086 +0.4% +1.5% -1.1% Paris 10,662 2,311 4,614 +0.8% +2.1% -1.3% London 6,680 1,578 4,232 -0.6% +0.9% -1.4% Detroit 3,697 2,900 1,275 0.0% +1.4% -1.4% San Francisco 3,630 2,265 1,602 +1.3% +1.4% -0.1% Washington, DC 3,363 2,449 1,373 +2.1% +3.5% -1.3% Melbourne 3,023 2,027 1,491 +1.4% +2.5% -1.0% Hamburg 1,652 415 3,982 -0.3% +1.5% -1.8% Vienna 1,540 225 6,830 -0.2% +0.8% -1.0% Brisbane 1,334 1,363 978 +2.6% +5.2% -2.5% Copenhagen 1,153 333 3,467 -0.5% +0.7% -1.2% Amsterdam 805 144 5,591 -0.3% +1.6% -1.9% Zurich 788 167 4,708 +0.4% +1.2% -0.8% Frankfurt 634 136 4,661 -0.2% +1.9% -2.1%

Source: Demographia (2001).

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high-density commuting flows Table 3-2. Motorways and road network in developed countries, between a limited number of areas 1970–1997 (a “few-to-few” pattern of trips from the suburbs to downtown) that char- Motorways All Roads acterized urban areas in the early (km) (thousand km) twentieth century, there are increas- 1970 1997 1970 1997 ingly scattered trips between many geographically dispersed origins and Australia 1,027 1,388 885 931 destinations, with no origin-destina- Austria 488 1,613 94 129 tion pair or corridor attaining particu- Canada 4,789 17,119 755 908 larly dominant traffic flows (a “many- to-many” pattern). And this is the Belgium 488 1,679 94 146 case for all trips, not just the journey Czech Republic — 485 56 56 to work. Nonwork travel (shopping, Denmark 198 929 63 71 personal or family business, recreation, etc.) is also likely to involve Finland 108 444 72 78 destinations that are geographically France 1,553 9,900 793 893 dispersed in the urban fringes and Germany 4,100 11,309 464 656 the core, and so require either individual trips to scattered locations or Greece 65 529 35 41 complex trip chains that accomplish Hungary 171 438 98 211 multiple purposes with one trip. Iceland — — 11 13 Conventional public transport is not efficient in serving these kinds of trips Ireland 0 94 87 96 and travel patterns. Italy 3,913 6,505 284 308 Japan 638 6,117 1,015 1,153 Provision of highway infrastruc- Luxembourg 7 118 5 5 ture. All across the developed world, Netherlands 975 2,225 98 126 the trends described above in land and automobile use have been facili- New Zealand 100 144 92 92 tated in large part by the concomi- Norway 41 100 72 91 tant development of high-quality, Poland 139 264 295 377 extensive highway infrastructure. They include the United States’ Portugal 66 797 42 69 41,000-mile Interstate Highway Spain 203 9,063 139 163 System, the 10,300-kilometer net- Sweden 403 1,324 125 139 work of French autoroutes, the 8,900-kilometer system of Italian Switzerland 651 1,613 60 71 autostrada, the 11,400-kilometer net- Turkey — 1,560 59 62 work of German autobahn, and the United Kingdom 1,057 3,362 322 399 6,100-kilometer network of motorways in Japan (IRF 1999). From 1975 United States 53,701 88,962 6,003 6,315 to 1995, the European motorway Source: OECD (1999a), tables 10.1B, 10.1A. network as a whole grew 116%, from 23,600 kilometers to 51,100 kilometers, while the entire road system sion programs served freight and erate the outward relocation of grew by 586,000 kilometers to a total passenger movements between households and businesses. It was of 3.69 million kilometers (Table 3-2). cities, many were designed to serve not unusual to find such roads, with- Integral to achieving this expansion urban traffic in and around cities. As in a few years of being opened, car- of inter-city and urban highway net- people moved to the suburbs, high- rying traffic levels that (on the basis works was the establishment of effec- capacity radial urban expressways of prior land-use patterns) had not tive construction funding and financ- were built to facilitate travel between been forecast to occur until 20 or ing mechanisms, such as the gas-tax- the suburbs and the urban core. more years of service. funded dedicated Highway Trust Similarly, as the amount of traffic Fund in the United States. between suburban locations increased, many cities developed cir- At the turn of this century, there are cumferential roads to facilitate such indications that new road construc- Although some of the motorways movements. Often, the provision of tion in the urban areas of the devel- constructed in these network expan- road infrastructure seemed to accel- oped world is likely to be more limit-

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ed than in the last five decades. For a out of central cities in droves, as more mobile. Future growth in per variety of reasons, building new roads incomes and auto ownership rise. In capita automobile travel is expected is not as easy as it used to be. Some Leipzig, a city of 500,0000, about to be especially pronounced in metropolitan areas are simply run- 20% of city apartments are vacant, metropolitan areas, whose outward ning out of land, necessitating costly their owners having chosen to move boundaries continue to expand, and underground construction, as in the to the suburbs — an option that was whose declining population densities case of the Paris periphèrique denied to them during the commu- and increasingly dispersed travel pat- exterieure (A-86). Even when suffi- nist regime. Europe’s middle class has terns preclude an extensive use of cient land is available, the high cost moved to the suburbs — where they alternative means of transportation. of right-of-way acquisition serves as a shop in malls, live in low-density sub- According to OECD forecasts, vehicle- powerful impediment to urban road divisions, and drive on traffic-clogged kilometers of travel (VKT) in OECD construction. But primarily, increased highways. The city as a compact countries are expected to grow over environmental and social sustainabili- urban area with clearly delineated the next two decades (2000–2020) at ty concerns relating to roads (dis- boundaries is a thing of the past in 2% per year (OECD 1995a, chap. 3). cussed in detail in coming sections) Europe, no less than in North have greatly slowed down new high- America. These developments are The Role of Public Transport way construction projects in the summarized in Table 3-1. urban areas of the developed world. Public transport is an important means of mobility in the developed In the absence of major economic world, particularly in the larger and Extent of and prospects for upheavals, the trends described denser urban settlements. Public these trends. Many of these trends above — those of urban decentral- transport accounts for a significant first became evident in North ization and increased automobility — share of all trips in most large cities in America and only later in other parts are likely to continue in the foresee- Japan and Western Europe and many of the developed world. There were able future. In the developed nations, of the cities of the United States. several reasons for this: the fact that where the market is mature and car However, the role of public transport the United States and Canada sur- ownership levels are already high, has been decreasing in most cities of vived World War II with their infras- growth in demand for cars has lev- the developed world, in large mea- tructure and productive capacity eled off and consists primarily of sure as a result of the trends toward intact; the aggressive highway con- replacement vehicles and additions of automobility and suburbanization dis- struction programs begun in the second and third household cars. cussed above. 1950s; the relatively high personal However, there appears to be no sim- income levels that led to near-univer- ilar leveling-off in the growth of travel sal auto ownership; fiscal policies that demand. Because of declining urban The extent of public transport subsidized home ownership; cheap densities and a dispersal of travel ori- in the developed world. Table 3-3 gasoline; and a relative lack (com- gins and destinations, cars are being shows that the different regions of pared with other developed coun- used more intensively, i.e. for more the developed world provide different tries) of strong land-use controls at trips and over greater distances. levels of public transport. Though the the metropolitan and regional level. Between 1970 and 2000, urban auto- regions listed do not include the mobile travel per capita increased by entire “developed world,” they give a 30% to 35% per decade in Europe, good indication of the range of situa- However, the forces of urban decen- and by about 45% per decade in the tions found. As always, at this high tralization are at work in Europe as United States (see Figure 3-3 on level of aggregation, the reliability well. Between 1970 and 1990, the page 3). With rising incomes, auto- and comparability of statistics are share of metropolitan population liv- mobile use is expected to continue to questionable, and the figures for the ing in the central city has declined in increase, as our society becomes ever world are very broad estimates virtually every European city. It went down from 32% to 23% in Paris; Table 3-3. Some indicators of public transport system capacity from 41% to 38% in London; from 38% to 30% in Zurich; and from Buses and 80% to 67% in Amsterdam. Such Urban Rail Coaches* declines occurred despite the fact Region (thousand km) (thousands) that local governments in Europe European Union 6.8 500 have more control over land use, that = public transport service is far more United States 1.8 30 extensive, and suburban home own- Japan 0.8 257 ership is not subsidized by the tax code. A striking example of an exo- Source: European Commission (2000). dus to the suburbs is the former East *Includes local and intercity travel. = Germany, where people are moving Another 570,000 buses are dedicated to conveying students.

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intended only to provide a means of much as the Japanese. In the United by Philadelphia (5.5%) and Chicago gauging scale. States, most urban rail use in the (4.2%). These shares decrease to United States is concentrated in the 0.7% in Houston. Nationwide, public largest cities, and New York City transport serves 1.8% of person trips All three regions have urban rail sys- alone accounts for over a third of the and 2.1% of person-kilometers (US tems in their major cities, although urban public transport ridership in DOT FHWA 1990, 1995). the EU heavy urban rail networks are the United States. Rail is heavily used by far the most extensive. Buses are for commuting in the large Japanese the most important means of local metropolitan areas. It is noteworthy Over the period since 1970, bus use public transport in Europe and the that the number of daily rail journeys in Japan has stayed more or less con- United States, but in Japan, they are in the Tokyo/Yokohama region stant, but railway use has grown by less important than the railways. exceeds that in all of the Americas 40% despite the very rapid growth in (that is, the area stretching from automobile ownership from fewer Patagonia to Alaska). than 100 automobiles per 1,000 pop- In all developed countries, there are ulation to almost 400. However, extensive taxi systems. It is difficult to automobile use in Japan is low, being obtain reliable statistics on the levels In most countries of the developed barely two-thirds of that in the of provision because of the different world, the role of public transport is European Union countries and very types of licensing systems (or the diminishing even though absolute much lower than that in the United absence of licensing). However, if all levels of use continue to rise slowly. States. types of private-hire passenger vehi- For instance, in the European Union, cles are included, it is not uncommon public transport use has grown by to find provision levels reaching as 40% since 1970, though the popula- Public transport operations. high as one vehicle per one hundred tion it serves grew by only 10%. Across most of the developed world, population. Western Europeans therefore use local public transport is managed by more public transport today than in public institutions. Sometimes the 1970, with buses leading the way, government provides a public trans- Trends in the use of public followed by rail, then urban rail. port system on its own initiative, and transport in the developed Private vehicle use has grown even other times the public sector takes world. Table 3-4 shows the differ- more markedly, however, and conse- over financially troubled private oper- ences in the use of different modes of quently, public transport’s share of ators. The latter was particularly com- public transport across different parts total trips has fallen from 22% to mon in the United States, where pub- of the developed world. As the data 14%. In the United States, public lic transport services (initially domi- in Figure 3-1 illustrated, public trans- transport has also grown (albeit very nated by streetcar operations) were port in the United States makes, in slightly) since 1970, following a dra- provided by private enterprise. In aggregate, only a minimal contribu- matic two-thirds reduction in rider- France, local public transport services tion to mobility, while in Japan and ship between the end of World War II (outside of Paris, Marseilles, and a Western Europe, public transport is a and 1970. However, with automobile few other cities) have long been pro- very important contributor to mobili- traffic growing by almost 90% over vided by private operators franchised ty. There are some significant differ- this period, public transport's market by local government agencies. In ences in transit use, even between share has declined substantially. Of recent years the rest of Europe has Japan and Western Europe: Europeans major metropolitan areas, New York begun to emulate the French exam- use rail almost ten times as much as has the largest share of person trips ple, and the privatization of public Americans, but only a quarter as by public transport (7.7%), followed transport is expanding rapidly.

The degree of privatization, and Table 3-4. Some indicators of public whether it extends to both train and transport mobility (km/capita/year) bus systems, varies widely among different countries. In the United Urban Bus and Kingdom, outside London, bus ser- Region Rail Coach* vices are fully deregulated, with the European Union 110 1,100 public sector's role confined to ensur- United States 75 250/845= ing the provision of services deemed socially necessary. But the more gen- Japan 254 755 eral model for bus operations is for a Source: European Commission (2000); US public-sector client to specify the ser- DOT, BTS (1999). *Includes local and intercity travel. vice requirement and then procure =The higher figure includes dedicated school this competitively from private opera- bus services. tors. Securing private competition for

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rail transport is more difficult, but it generally agreed in principle to be a levels — increased personal mobility, has been achieved in Sweden and the competitive mode for trips up to 5 regional development, and greater United Kingdom. The evidence kilometers or more; however, bicycle access to social and economic oppor- regarding the success of privatization usage varies considerably from city to tunities — they are also responsible efforts thus far is mixed. In most city. Figure 3-4 shows data for a num- for a number of negative develop- instances, costs to the public purse ber of European cities that suggest ments that raise serious sustainability have been reduced. In some that walking and bicycling together concerns. An automobile-dominated instances service levels have also account for a significant share of total transport system leaves some mem- improved, but there are conspicuous trips in a number of cities. Available bers of the society behind because examples of the opposite having data suggest nonmotorized transport they are too poor to own a car, phys- occurred. Certainly the effects have is less important in the United States, ically incapable of driving, or too old not been uniform, and concerns accounting for about 6.5% of trips to handle a car safely. Urban motor- relating to safety and long-term eco- and 0.5% of trip-kilometers for local ways, built to accommodate nomic viability remain. In the United trips — i.e., trips shorter than 100 increased traffic, divide and disrupt States, miles — in the country as a whole urban neighborhoods. The rising use conditions on the use of federal (US DOT BTS 1999). of motor vehicles and rising travel grants have made the introduction of demand can lead to deteriorating air competition more difficult. Most local quality and greater emissions of public transport operations (other There are many reasons for the varied greenhouse gases, accelerated deple- than school buses) remain in the popularity of walking and bicycling. tion of fossil-fuel reserves, higher acci- hands of public operators, although Some of the differences can be dent rates, and mounting traffic con- the contracting out of public trans- attributed to local topography and gestion. Public opinion everywhere port management functions is quite climate, but tradition and culture play views traffic congestion as the conse- common in medium-sized and small a role, as do transport and land-use quence of motorization that most metropolitan areas. policy. seriously affects the environment and the quality of life. Congestion and delay not only waste time and are a Nonmotorized Transport (NMT) SUSTAINABILITY CONCERNS major irritant to individual travelers; In almost all cities, walking is the they also burden businesses and the most prevalent mode of transport for Though the widespread ownership economy with higher costs. Indeed, trips less than 1 kilometer or so in and use of private automobiles pro- the vitality of national economies is length. In gentle terrain, bicycling is duce widespread benefits at many

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intimately linked to a smoothly func- Integrating Sustainability Concerns into the Transportation tioning transportation system. Planning Process: The US Experience We now summarize the nature of those concerns at the beginning of In the United States, as in other developed countries, the battlegrounds on which the the twenty-first century. We will first initial skirmishes over highway development were fought in the 1960s and 1970s were review those aspects most closely tied proposals to build high-speed, limited-access highways through already-developed to vehicle technology (accidents, metropolitan area corridors. Often, the planned routes would require taking over land emissions, noise, etc.), then look to already used for residential or commercial purposes. Critics pointed to the likely dis- wider social impacts, including placement of established homeowners and neighborhoods, to increased local noise and increased levels of traffic congestion. noxious emissions, to greater congestion and decreased pedestrian safety on nearby local streets, and to the sometimes adverse social and aesthetic consequences of new Road Safety urban highways. And in the highly charged racial climate of the times, the debate took on racial overtones, too, sometimes characterized as “building white folks’ roads The cost in human lives, injuries, and through black folks’ bedrooms.” suffering attributable to highway and road crashes is enormous. Toward the A legal avenue through which the opposition to further urban highway construction end of the 1990s, around 42,000 could be channeled was provided by the 1969 National Environmental Protection Act people were killed each year in road (NEPA), which required “environmental impact statements” to be prepared for all pro- accidents in Western Europe, and posed “major federal actions significantly affecting the quality of the human environ- between 40,000 and 45,000 in the ment.” The courts’ interpretations of NEPA provided an effective weapon in the oppo- United States. In some countries, road sition to the urban highway plans: Many of the proposed links were abandoned within accidents are the primary cause of metropolitan areas, while others were restricted or rerouted in some way. death in the 15- to 30-year-old age group. The number of people serious- With the battle joined primarily over limited access highway construction plans, it was ly injured in road accidents is typically inflamed by two other issues or developments: automotive emissions (for which the more than ten times higher. Road legal catalyst in the United States was the 1970 Clean Air Act amendments) and the accident victims are not just motor- OPEC-driven oil shortages of the early 1970s. Public policy focused on cleaning up the ized vehicle drivers and occupants, exhausts of private vehicles and making them more fuel-efficient. While the Clean Air but also include pedestrians and bicy- Act amendments did pay some attention to modifying vehicle usage patterns (calling clists. In developed countries, these for “transportation control policies” in major metropolitan areas), by far the most groups account for roughly 10% to attention was placed on encouraging technological adaptations of the internal combus- 15% of the total number of road fatal- tion engine to reduce noxious emissions and improve fuel economy. The US federal ities. Between half and three-quarters government has found it considerably less risky to promote a policy of salvation of the highway fatalities in developed through technology — by placing pressure on the automotive manufacturing and fuel countries occur outside of urban production industries to adapt their products — than to pressure drivers into changing areas; however, even one-quarter of their behaviors through sharply increased prices or driving restrictions. these totals attributable to motor vehicle accidents in urban areas is a large amount.

There are various ways of estimating to continue into the foreseeable the effects of stricter government the monetary costs to society of road future. standards, higher fuel prices, and accidents; the different methods vary voluntary efforts by vehicle in the way they account for pain and Nonrenewable Resource manufacturers, there have been suffering and economic losses. Consumption notable improvements in vehicle fuel Estimates of accident costs in most consumption and carbon dioxide developed countries are typically in Current vehicle propulsion emission rates over the past several the range of 1% to 3% of GDP. technologies are based on the decades. Much of the initial impetus combustion of petroleum-based fossil for these efforts was provided by the During the last decade, all industrial- fuels. Transport is not only the major, oil crisis in the 1970s. The greatest ized countries have made important but also the most rapidly growing initial reductions in fuel consumption strides in reducing highway fatalities — sector of oil consumption in OECD predictably occurred in the countries down 25% in Western Europe and countries. Between 1973 and 1988, with the most fuel-inefficient fleets, 30% in the United States — a trend transport’s share of total oil i.e., the United States, Canada, and attributable to a combination of safer consumption in OECD countries grew Australia. In the United States, the vehicles (dual air bags, mandatory from 43% to 60%. Light- and fuel consumption of new light-duty safety belts, antilock brakes, etc.), heavy-duty road vehicles —passenger vehicles (automobiles and light safer highway designs, faster incident cars, light trucks, motorcycles, and trucks) declined by an average of 3% response, and better post-accident heavy trucks — use approximately per year between 1978 and 1987. care. All of these trends are expected 75% of all transport fuel. Through

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Table 3-5. Changes in emissions of atmospheric pollutants

European Union 15, United States, 1990–1996 1990–1997 Total Highway Total Highway Change Transportation Change Transportation Current Status -20% -26% -4% -11% Primarily an infrastructure Carbon design issue in the monoxide construction of tunnels, etc.

Oxides of -10% -14% +3% +11% Concerns abated to some nitrogen degree with development of advanced technologies. Sulfur dioxide -43% -21% -17% -41% Expected to decrease to marginal levels. Volatile -13% -25% -10% -16% Role in ozone production a organic serious concern. compounds Lead n.a. n.a. -21% -95% Phased out of use in most of the developed world. Sources: European Commission (2000); US EPA (2000a).

In the United States, average new to 10.1 l/100 kilometers for OECD consumed. This depends, in turn, light-duty vehicle fuel consumption Europe, 13.5 l/100 kilometers for upon the number of transport vehi- reached its low point of 9 l/100 kilo- OECD North America, and 13.3 l/100 cles, and the intensity of use of these meters in 1987. Since then, it has kilometers for OECD Pacific (OECD vehicles in addition to the in-use effi- been increasing, in large part because 1995a, Annex). ciency of the average transport vehi- of growing sales of light trucks, mini- cle. Transport-related CO2 emissions vans, and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). are expected to rise in all OECD Carbon Dioxide Emissions While engine efficiency is continuous- countries at least through 2015. ly being improved, consumers often In the developed world, transport is Average vehicle fuel consumption is prefer to exchange some or all of the one of the few industrial sectors for expected to decline, but this decline potential fuel efficiency gains for which CO2 emissions are growing. It is projected to be overwhelmed by increased performance characteristics, has been estimated that transport increases in the number of vehicles such as increased power and torque. activities account for roughly 28% of and in the intensity of their use Moreover, changes in safety regula- total worldwide CO2 production by (OECD 1995a, chap. 2). tions sometimes lead to increased humans. The share of transport in vehicle weight, resulting in higher total CO production is slightly high- 2 Noxious Emissions levels of fuel consumption. By 1999, er in North America (roughly 33%) the average fleet new vehicle fuel and slightly lower in Western Europe Concern about local air pollution economy had risen to 9.6 l/100 kilo- (roughly 24%). The United States caused by automobiles was one of meters (US DOT, NHTSA 1999a). alone accounts for roughly 24% of the original sustainability concerns 1 total global CO2 emissions, so the related to automobile use in most of US transport sector emits roughly 8% the developed world. During the last Due to the slow rate of fleet turnover, of the total world output of CO2. 30 years, most industrialized coun- the fuel consumption of the on-road tries have adopted vehicle emission fleet is higher than that of the new control measures in an effort to con- vehicle fleet whenever the latter is In 1998, the auto industry in Europe trol and abate deteriorating air quali- falling. In 1995 it is estimated that signed a Voluntary Agreement with ty in urbanized areas. Preventive the fuel consumption of the on-road the European Union to reduce corpo- measures include exhaust emission light-duty vehicle fleet was 9.5 l/100 rate CO2 emissions of the new car standards, evaporative emission con- kilometers in OECD Europe, 11.4 fleet from an average of 186 g/km in trols, fuel quality requirements, l/100 kilometers in OECD North 1995 to 140 g/km in 2008 (DEFRA inspection and maintenance pro- America (the United States and 2000). It is likely that manufacturers grams, and refueling controls. These Canada), and 10.0 l/100 kilometers will rely heavily on sales of diesel control measures have resulted in in OECD Pacific (Australia, New engines and smaller cars to reach the substantial reductions in vehicle emis- Zealand, and Japan). Including the target. However, total transport-relat- sions (see Table 3-5), and in an over- other road vehicle types (motorcycles ed CO2 emissions are closely con- all improvement in air quality as mea- and heavy trucks) raises these figures nected to the total amount of fuel sured by the declining number of

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Table 3-6. Farebox recovery ratios for selected cities in developed countries

Operating Costs Type of Covered City Agency Organization by Fares London LT Transport authority 90% Tokyo Toei Transport authority 86% New York NYC Transit Transport authority 63% Tokyo TRTA Rapid Transit authority 75% Munich MVV Transport authority 51% Paris RATP Transport authority 43% Milan ATM Municipal authority 37% New York PATH Transport authority 48% Berlin BVG Municipal authority 33%

Source: London Transport (1998); US figures updated using US DOT FTA (1999). days that pollutants in the air exceed increased from 15% to 26% between of the extent to which public trans- recommended levels. 1980 and 1990. And about 65% of port operating costs are covered by the European population is estimated fares in a number of large cities. (WHO 1999) to be exposed to noise According to OECD estimates, HC levels leading to serious annoyance, and NOx emissions in OECD coun- speech interference, and sleep distur- Differences in accounting practices tries will fall substantially during the bance (55–65 dBLAeq over 24 hours). make direct comparisons difficult. period 2005–2010 (OECD 1995a). The London costs, for example, Beyond that point, however, the include depreciation, renewals, and OECD forecasts suggest if present Besides vehicle engines and exhausts, private financing charges as well as trends continue, emissions of HC and much of the noise produced by vehi- direct operating costs. Not all of NOx will start increasing as vehicle- cles today, particularly in highway these charges are necessarily included kilometers traveled increase, and will operations, results from the move- in the cost totals used to calculate the be above their 2000 levels by 2030. ment of vehicles through the air, and farebox ratios for other national For CO, if present trends continue, the contact of tires with the road. agencies. However, the necessity of levels will fall until 2010, level off, The former can be reduced by aero- substantial external funding for urban and then start increasing again. dynamic vehicle body designs (which public transport operations is quite also have the effect of improving fuel clear. In the United States, passenger efficiency and reducing emissions). fares cover just less than 40% of Vehicular Noise The latter can be reduced through operating costs; in Europe, this ratio Most developed countries have had tire tread designs and improvements is closer to 50%, and in Japan the vehicle noise emission regulations in pavement surface textures (which figure is probably somewhat higher since the 1970s. Technological also have the effect of draining water than this. In addition to operating progress in engines and exhaust sys- more effectively and so reducing acci- costs, capital expenditure is frequent- tems has made new vehicles consid- dent risks). Noise barriers can also ly aided by public grants, although erably quieter. For example, the EU minimize the impact of vehicle-gener- many agencies also use loans and allowable noise level of a modern ated noise on nearby activities. bond issues to finance capital pro- truck is approximately equivalent to jects, and these have to be funded that of the typical car in 1970 from their revenue accounts. Economic Viability of Public (European Commission 2000). Transport Nonetheless, according to a statement issued in June 1999 by The inability of local public transport The total sums involved can be con- European Health, Environment and across most of the developed world siderable. The United Kingdom, with Transport ministers, transport — and to recover costs raises a concern perhaps one of the least subsidized in particular road traffic — remains about its economic sustainability. public transport systems in the devel- the main cause of human exposure to Most local scheduled surface public oped world, receives about US$3.5 ambient noise. The proportion of the transport operations in developed billion per year in external funding,2 population in the European Region countries are unable to meet their which is equivalent to US$0.50 per exposed to “high” noise levels (equiv- operating costs from commercial rev- journey or US$0.04 per passenger- alent to 65 dBLAeq over 24 hours) enues. Table 3-6 gives an indication kilometer. Elsewhere, subsidy rates

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are usually significantly higher than Ambivalent Public Attitudes to the Social Impacts of this. In the United States, for exam- Private Vehicle Use ple, governmental funding for public transport exceeds US$8 billion per As a result of the debate and attention to these matters over the last third of the twen- year, giving support rates in excess of tieth century, there is now a widespread public awareness in the industrialized coun- US$1.00 per journey and US$0.13 tries that private vehicle use contributes significantly to air quality problems, global per passenger-kilometer. warming, petroleum depletion, accidental deaths, and so on. Surveys frequently express significant public concerns about these matters, and concerns about the social costs of private vehicle use have led to a quite remarkable shift in governmental trans- In effect, public transport needs sig- port investment policies over this time period. nificant public subsidies to operate. There are certainly many reasons to Yet for the great majority of the population, expressed concerns rarely translate into provide public transport with public modifications of personal behavior. The same public continues to use private vehicles support, and there is little risk that profligately, and shows very few signs of adjusting the values by which personal trans- the inability to recover operating portation decisions are made. In particular, consider the use of public transport over costs would force the suspension of the automobile. A study analyzing the effect of zero fares on public transport ridership public transport service in any major in selected cities in the United States found that even free public transport had only a metropolitan region in the developed modest impact on ridership (Domencich and Kraft, 1970, p. 85). To attract a signifi- world. However, subsidies and the cant number of riders away from the automobile, the study concluded that travelers resulting levels of service are often would need to be paid not to use their cars and instead use public transport. In other vulnerable to the vicissitudes of pub- words, the provision of public-transport capacity at a highly subsidized price does not lic opinion and varying levels of polit- guarantee its use, even when roads are congested and it is shielded from such conges- ical support for public transport. tion. There is little relationship between improved service and lower fares on public Consider, for instance, the example of transport, and private use of automobiles. People like driving their cars, and there is lit- GO Transit, the public transport sys- tle that democratic governments can do to lure them to public transport. Restrictions tem serving the Toronto metropolitan on parking availability and high charges for auto use may be required for people to area. Long heralded as a leading switch from driving to taking public transport. What is sometimes characterized as the example of an effectively governed, public’s “love affair” with the automobile might be described more accurately as a well-managed system with high rider- “love-hate relationship.” Altschuler (1975) has convincingly rationalized this paradox in ship in North America, GO (despite a US context: fairly high, mandated farebox recovery ratios) has been so starved of cap- The consumer does not want government to interfere with his life. He is ital expenditures in recent years that receptive to having government provide improved service — e.g., public it now faces serious service and main- transport — but he will oppose having government disrupt his neighborhood, tenance problems (IBI 1999). harm his environment, or make it difficult for him to drive. The status quo is the thing. Citizens oppose new highways because they disrupt existing neighborhoods, social patterns, and natural ecologies. They oppose programs to Creation of Transport- reduce auto travel because such programs would disrupt established life styles Disadvantaged Social Groups and travel habits. They can adjust to inconvenience if they have to, but they Because of the great reliance on pri- are angry if they feel that their elected representatives could have averted the vate vehicles for transport in devel- need — or, even worse, deliberately created it. oped societies, people who cannot afford to buy or lease a vehicle, as well as those who, because of physi- the means of improving their eco- meet some of their needs but gener- cal or mental handicaps, cannot nomic situation and rising out of ally require significant advance book- operate one, may find themselves poverty. ing and do not provide tight sched- seriously disadvantaged in their abili- ule guarantees, so they may be less ty to get to jobs or services, or to convenient in some ways than con- take care of other needs. Children Although many public transport sys- ventional public transport. and teenagers as well as elderly tems are adapting vehicles and sta- adults may also suffer from the auto- tions to accommodate the needs of mobile-orientation of the transport riders with disabilities, the origins Increasing suburbanization and the and land-use systems. and destinations of these riders may living patterns of older adults suggest not be conveniently served by the that the automobile will be of grow- public transport system. Problems of ing importance to the next genera- This effect is particularly perverse in access to, and egress from, the sys- tion of retirees. However, many older the case of people kept by poverty tem are even more dissuasive for people have special transport needs from owning a private vehicle. The these riders than for the general pub- that may not be well met by an auto- system limits their access to the very lic. Special-purpose, often door-to- mobile-dependent system. Countries job opportunities that could provide door demand-responsive systems can in the European Union as well as

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Japan and the United States will Understandably, most elderly people themselves in cars. This can lead to a experience significant population want to hold onto their cars and driv- loss of sense of community and growth, both in real numbers and in er’s licenses as long as possible. A social cohesion. To attribute such the proportion of older people. The valid driver's license is as much a cer- developments entirely to automobili- number of people in Europe over 60 tificate of continued vitality and inde- ty would be a gross distortion, yet is expected to grow by 66% to 116 pendence as it is a mobility necessity. there is a palpable, if inchoate sense million in 2025, from a 1996 base of To have to give up driving is viewed that the increased use of cars over 77 million. In Germany, France, and as a step toward dependency and longer commutes has led to a more the United Kingdom, between 15% isolation. While some countries have harried, less friendly society. and 17% of the population is over adopted stringent procedures aimed 60, with trends indicating rapid aging at identifying unsafe elderly drivers Traffic Congestion over the next two decades. Italy has and getting them off the roads, pub- the distinction of being the oldest lic attitudes toward the treatment of The general public views traffic con- nation within Europe — defined as elderly drivers are shifting, as the gestion as one of the most vexing the proportion of people over 60 younger generation confronts the drawbacks of a widely automotive coupled with the lowest fertility rate. reality of sustaining the mobility of society. Moreover, though highway Italy now has more people over age their own elderly parents. There is a traffic congestion is a subject that is 60 than people 20 and younger. growing sentiment that it is both sometimes sensationalized, there is Similarly, Japan's population leads unreasonable and unfair to expect growing evidence that congestion is most of the world in the number of elderly people to give up their cars, increasing in intensity, duration, and older adults. The number of Japanese since doing so would be tantamount geographic coverage across the over age 60 is expected to grow by to sentencing them to a life of impris- developed world. According to the 65% over the next 25 years, from 26 onment in their homes. Instead, one 2001 Urban Mobility Study published million to 40 million. The US baby- increasingly hears demands that soci- by the Texas Transportation Institute boom population totals nearly 80 ety must find ways to make it safe for (TTI 2001), the average annual delay million people. As this group ages, older people to continue driving. To a per person in the United States has the number of people over 60 will significant extent, that is why the climbed from 11 hours in 1982 to 36 nearly double in 25 years. There are focus of debate has shifted in the last hours in 1999.3 An OECD study that more than 44 million people over age few years. While there still are calls to uses average daily vehicle-kilometers 60 today in the United States; their get unsafe older drivers off the road, per road-kilometer as a proxy mea- number is projected to increase to far more attention is being paid to sure of congestion concludes that well over 80 million in 25 years. help elderly persons stay on the road. congestion is also increasing in Europe (OECD 1999b). Community Disruption As the population grows, cars driven by the elderly will constitute an Although more difficult to quantify, Further, there is evidence that con- increasing proportion of traffic, espe- the increasing orientation of the gestion has gone from being essen- cially in the suburbs and in rural urban transport system toward pri- tially a localized peaking problem — areas, where many elderly people vate vehicles can have additional stemming from too many drivers try- tend to reside. Addressing the issue effects on the quality of community ing to use a limited number of critical of millions of drivers in their late 70s life. As we have seen, the more fla- road links at critical times; i.e. “rush and beyond involves a tough trade- grant cases of this provided the initial hours” — affecting a few drivers, to off between safety and mobility, rallying call for the “freeway revolt” becoming a more widespread phe- between the risk to life and the risk to against urban highway expansion in nomenon that affects most drivers. quality of life. Overall, older drivers the United States. Urban motorways For instance, a 1992 study of US con- spend far less time on the road than were sometimes built through the gestion found that the percentage of younger drivers and have fewer acci- middle of established communities peak-hour urban interstate travel that dents. On the basis of accidents per (most frequently those with insuffi- occurred in congested conditions miles driven, however, they have a cient political power to oppose that increased from 40% in 1975 to close higher rate of crashes. The rate rises alignment), in effect dividing the to 70% by 1990 (TRB 1994). after age 75 and increases significant- community and constructing a physi- Changing urban travel patterns, par- ly after 85. The driver fatality rate cal barrier between the two halves. ticularly the increasing role of suburb- shows that drivers over 75 years of suburb trips, are responsible for many age are more vulnerable than any More generally, in a community of these trends. Congestion resulting other age group except teenagers. dominated by private-vehicle travel, from suburb-suburb trips has a differ- Factors like vision and hearing impair- there are relatively few opportunities ent pattern from the localized severe ment, disorientation, memory disor- for serendipitous interactions “rush-hour” congestion on radial ders, and side effects from medicines between residents, because when links to central business districts; it are largely responsible. people leave their homes they isolate tends to spread in time and space.

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The consequence of these trends, as egy, which is covered at length in “Foregone Travel” Due the Texas Transportation Institute Chapter 2. to Telecommuting or (2001) and OECD (1999b) studies Home-Based Work demonstrate, is that urban residents are spending double and triple the Each of these broad categories Telecommuting is often promoted amount of time in congested traffic includes multiple strategies. For for its potential to reduce demand that they did only 20 years ago. instance, the demand for automobile for automobile travel. This has been Wasting hours each week in congest- use can be reduced in a number of especially so in the last decade, as ed traffic is a deeply frustrating and ways: automobiles can be priced to the use of such communication fruitless use of time for adult urban reduce demand; more environmen- technology as mobile telephones, residents. The economic, social, and tally sound paradigms of vehicle email, and the Internet has prolifer- environmental costs to society of ownership and use can be encour- ated. Working full time at home and thousands of drivers driving slowly on aged; and automobile use can be telecommuting have become practi- congested highways and major thor- restricted. Similarly, supply-side cal options for many workers. oughfares are considerable; the improvements could include building Workers now regularly go online to drivers are unable to perform produc- new infrastructure, as well as operat- access information, transfer work tive economic endeavors, or to ing and managing existing infrastruc- documents, communicate with engage in beneficial recreational ture more efficiently. other project staff, and make elec- activities with family and friends, tronic purchases of business supplies while their automobiles produce sub- and services from in-home offices. Reducing the Demand stantial amounts of airborne pollu- for Auto Use tants. Unfortunately, because of the However, this technology revolution growth of suburbs and the inability of Over the last three decades, the neg- has thus far not been accompanied public transport to serve them, the ative effects of the auto have spurred by any noticeable decrease in travel. staunch opposition to new highway the creation of several strategies to Some analysts suggest that non- construction, and individuals’ visceral ameliorate these effects by reducing technology-related constraints limit attachment to driving in their own the demand for automobile travel. the potential of telecommuting to cars, an equitable, politically palat- They include direct restrictions on reduce travel demand. The choice able solution to urban congestion auto use as well as a number of inno- of whether to telecommute remains elusive. vative ideas that are more nuanced in depends on both external con- their approach. straints such as lack of job suitabili- ty, management willingness, or MITIGATING STRATEGIES appropriate technology, and inter- Transportation Demand nal constraints such as desire for Every industrialized nation has Management. Transportation workplace interaction, insufficient worked to develop policies to miti- Demand Management (TDM) is a set self-motivation to work alone at gate the adverse effects of motoriza- of techniques that aim to reduce or home, and concern about visibility tion without impairing the continued redistribute travel demand, curtail for advancements. growth of mobility. In this section we solo driving, and decrease auto describe the most common of these dependency. Typical TDM techniques Further, data from the US strategies, highlighting best practices include promotion of carpooling, Nationwide Personal Transportation and particularly successful applica- flexible working arrangements, Survey as reported by Eash indicate tions. The mitigating strategies can telecommuting, road pricing, and that home-based workers tend to be classified under six broad cate- time-saving high-occupancy vehicle travel roughly the same amount as gories: (1) reducing the demand for (HOV) lanes. In recent years, traditional commuters, but differ in automobile use; (2) improvements — metropolitan regions in several devel- how their travel is distributed both physical and operational — in oped countries have adopted TDM as among trip purposes. the provision of highway and public part of their transportation plans. In Telecommuters generally reduce transport infrastructure; (3) improv- the early 1970s, several US corpora- their travel by approximately 30% ing the transport options available for tions initiated voluntary carpool pro- on days when they do not com- travelers; (4) using innovative land- grams in response to appeals to con- mute to a work location. However, use and urban-design strategies to serve fuel during the energy crisis. shifts in trip purposes and departure reduce travel demand; (5) integrated More recently, corporations have times are the more likely travel approaches that combine multiple offered flexible working hours, impacts of information technology strategies; and (6) “civilizing” the telecommuting, and other actions than reductions in vehicle-kilome- motor vehicle by modifying its design aimed at reducing or redistributing ters traveled. to increase safety and crashworthi- commuter travel demand. California ness and reduce emissions and fuel and certain metropolitan areas of the Source: Eash (2001). consumption. The discussion that fol- United States mandated ridesharing lows will address all but the last strat- programs during the 1980s, but later

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terminated them in the face of used to slow down and discourage design measures to dissuade motorists widespread public opposition. through-traffic. The roots of the from cutting through residential areas Modest TDM programs also have movement to reduce or “calm” vehic- en route to and from work. been implemented in Australia, ular traffic can be traced to Western Canada, and the Netherlands. Europe, where concern about traffic and the political will to act upon it The rebirth of the city car. The surfaced in the early 1970s. The launching of Renault’s Twingo, Fiat’s Evidence over the past two decades Netherlands pioneered the concept of Cinquecento, Volkswagen’s Lupo, and reveals that demand management the Woonerf — protected residential DaimlerChrysler’s A-class and Smart has a limited influence on travel areas in which pedestrians had abso- models in the late 1990s marked a behavior; not unusual are the results lute priority over vehicular traffic; and rebirth of the ultra-compact “city of an evaluation of efforts in the San German cities introduced the concept car” compatible with the crowded Francisco Bay Area which estimated of Verkehrsberuhigung (the origin and urban environment. Unlike their that “conventional” TDM (excluding literal translation of the term “traffic 1970s precursors that were spartan in road pricing options) had the poten- calming”) — a policy of limiting the appearance and aimed at young, tial to reduce total fuel use and emis- use of autos in residential areas using budget-conscious drivers, the current sions by about 7% to 8% (Harvey an array of techniques, such as divert- generation of “minis” are designed to and Deakin 1991). ing through-traffic, limiting parking to appeal to more affluent customers. designated areas, installing physical Sales figures over the past several speed restraints and declaring certain years, and the interest stimulated by City center automobile restric- areas off-limits to the automobile. In the launching of DaimlerChrysler’s tions. Automobile restrictions have the last decade, many regions in the Smart, suggest that the city car has won acceptance as a legitimate tech- United States have adopted physical found a market niche among nique of congestion management European car buyers who want a and as an instrument of achieving small, maneuverable, and fuel-effi- sustainable mobility in crowded city Traffic Calming — A US cient car but also desire style, fun, centers. They are employed in more Example and a good driving experience. This than 100 cities of Europe, North and favorable market reception is being South America, and Asia as docu- In Montgomery County, Maryland, reinforced by government/industry- mented by OECD surveys (OECD a prosperous suburb adjacent to sponsored field tests of small electric 1984). Center-city restrictions vary in Washington, DC, that has experi- and hybrid city cars such as Renault’s duration, scope, and severity, ranging enced rapid growth in the last two Praxitèle at Saint Quentin-en-Yvelines from temporary traffic prohibitions in decades, county authorities near Paris, Fiat’s Elettra Park in Turin; commercial districts during shopping responded to complaints from resi- and Honda’s City Pal in Motegi, hours to permanent closure to vehic- dents and neighborhood groups Japan. ular traffic in entire historic town cen- about growing commuter cut- ters (“car-free zones”), as in Vienna, through traffic by installing “speed Austria; Munich and Bremen, humps.” These are raised mounds Car sharing: Separating owner- Germany; and Bologna and Turin, in the pavement that force drivers ship from use. Leasing cars on a Italy. to slow down to 15–25 mph, short-term basis, otherwise known as depending on design. Other tech- “car sharing,” is another strategy niques used by Montgomery aimed at reducing the impact of cars More drastic restrictions, involving County include “chokers” and small in cities. Car sharing gives urban resi- outright bans on automobile use in traffic circles (also known by the dents access to cars without requiring center cities, have been instituted British term, “mini-roundabouts”). them to own one. The concept works when pollution reaches unhealthful The former create an illusion of a because members of car-sharing levels. In Athens, Mexico City, and narrower street and act as a psycho- organizations do not depend on cars during a September 1998 pollution logical deterrent to excessive speed; for everyday use. The typical member inversion incident in Paris (cool air the latter oblige motorists to slow of an auto cooperative is a young, trapped by warm air above it, which down at each intersection as they single, city dweller who needs per- keeps pollution from dispersing), negotiate the tight turns of the traf- sonal transportation only occasionally. authorities banned cars from entering fic circle. In the last three years the Car-sharing projects can generally be the city center on alternate days, Montgomery Transportation divided into three types: single-port according to whether license plates Department has installed about systems (where users return the vehi- ended with an odd or even number. 1,000 speed humps and a few cle to the place where it came from), dozen intersection mini-circles in dual-port systems (to commute residential neighborhoods through- between two stations), and multiport Traffic calming. In residential areas, out the county. systems (where the user can leave it there are a variety of regulatory and at any other port). Most existing car- physical “traffic-calming” measures sharing cooperatives are single-port

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Japanese Experiments reduction in the demand for personal reduced on a per-kilometer-traveled with Shared-Use Cars automobiles in the industrialized basis), and organize their lives countries. A study commissioned by (including where they live) in order In October 1997, Honda Motor the Swiss energy office estimates a to drive less. In turn, smaller and Company launched the Intelligent market potential for car sharing of lighter cars make less of an impact if Community Vehicle System (ICVS) not more than 1.5% of the driving they are involved in accidents at their Motegi site. The ICVS pro- population (Hormandinger 1997). (though conversely their ability to vides several lots from which users protect passengers from other heavy (Honda employees) can select four vehicles is also reduced), and organiz- different types of electric vehicles Fuel taxes: Pricing automobile ing housing decisions to drive less for short-term rental. Smart cards use appropriately. Appropriate produces more compact suburbs and unlock and start the car. User fees pricing of the automobile as a tool cities. are calculated automatically and toward achieving sustainability is a deducted from the users' stored long-cherished goal of many value cards. The lots and vehicles economists. They argue that sustain- Indeed, empirical analyses of the are outfitted with AVI technology, ability concerns arise because auto effects of price on gasoline consump- which allows the ICVS management users capture all of the benefits of tion in the OECD countries indicate center to monitor vehicle location in their trips, but pay only a fraction of that price increases have a very signif- real time. Vehicles are equipped the costs. In particular, drivers don't icant effect on gasoline consumption with an auto-charging system that pay for the pollution, noise, and CO2 (and thus CO2 emissions). Though instructs the vehicles to dock at a they produce, the congestion delays the range of estimates varies signifi- charging terminal when batteries they impose on other travelers, or the cantly across studies and across differ- are low. risks of accidents associated with their ent countries, the evidence suggests driving. Economists theorize that if that a 10% increase in gasoline price drivers were asked to pay these costs has the effect of reducing total gaso- through appropriate ownership and line consumption by 6% to 8%, with systems. Multiport systems remain use charges, they would be more dis- much of the reduction a conse- technically challenging to implement cerning in their travel choices. Lower quence of consumers choosing to use because of the difficulty associated and more sustainable levels of auto relatively fuel-efficient automobiles with keeping the vehicle offer in bal- use in the aggregate would follow as (Graham and Glaister 2001). Indeed, ance over the various ports given dif- a consequence. an analysis of the impacts of gasoline fering levels of demand across time price changes between 1960 and and location. 1985 suggests that among the OECD Economists promote fuel taxes as a countries and in the United States, good (though not perfect) proxy for Canada, Ireland, and Finland, a 10% Auto cooperatives have been multi- a “use” charge on gasoline use and increase in gasoline prices would be plying rapidly in Switzerland, consequently, for various pollutant accompanied by at least a similar Germany, Austria, and the emissions. The theory is that higher reduction in total gasoline consump- Netherlands. While early auto cooper- gas taxes influence consumer behav- tion (Sterner and Dahl 1992). atives appealed primarily to environ- ior in a myriad of complex ways. In mentalists and community activists the short term, consumers react by wishing to declare their indepen- curtailing automobile use. The empiri- Wide variations in fuel taxes across dence from the automobile, the cur- cal evidence suggests that short-term the industrialized countries facilitate rent clientele is motivated more by effect is relatively minor — a 10% some understanding of the aggre- personal convenience and cost sav- increase in fuel price translates to a gate effects of fuel taxes on gasoline ings than by ideological convictions. 2% to 3% reduction in total automo- consumption. Gasoline prices in Car-sharing efforts in North America bile travel (Graham and Glaister Western Europe are between two to are still in their infancy, though 2001). three times the price of gasoline in fledgling car-sharing initiatives have the United States, and prices in sprung up in several cities in the Japan, Australia, and Canada are United States, including Portland, the However, such automobile use differ- about 65% higher than in the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and ences understate the total impact of United States (OECD 1999a). Cambridge, and in Quebec City, fuel taxes on sustainability. As the cost Further, analysis of 1995 data sug- Montreal, Toronto, and Victoria in of gasoline consumption increases, gests that average fuel use per kilo- Canada. consumers buy lighter, more fuel-effi- meter in the United States is about cient cars, thus reducing their gaso- 50% to 80% higher than in Western line consumption per kilometer trav- Europe, and about 10% to 20% Though car sharing is an interesting eled (though doing so causes some- higher than in Japan, Australia, and and innovative experiment, it is not what of a rebound effect, as the Canada. Fuel use per capita in the currently expected to make a large impact of a higher fuel charge is United States is more than twice the

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per capita use in Western Europe London Considers Congestion Charges — For Four Decades and Japan, and about 70% higher than in Canada and Australia London has long considered charging drivers for the use of congested roads in its cen- (Schipper and Marie-Lilliu 1999). tral and inner areas. As early as 1964, The Smeed Committee reported on the Economic and Technical Possibilities of Road Pricing, concluding that it was the most efficient form of congestion control and was within technical reach (UK Ministry of In other words, there is some evi- Transport 1964). No action was taken on the findings of this study. In 1974, the dence that where they have been Greater London Council initiated public consultation on a Supplementary Licensing implemented, high fuel taxes play a Scheme for central/inner London (GLC 1974). This scheme was not implemented role in reducing gasoline consump- because of concerns about administrative complexity and problems of enforcement. tion. However, increasing fuel taxes is a political challenge; such taxes are In 1979, a simplified scheme was devised which applied only to car drivers and was wildly unpopular with voters and aimed principally at keeping out through-traffic (GLC 1979). Again, concerns about have a regressive effect on poor and enforcement and the adequacy of the peripheral routes led to a quiet end for conges- elderly drivers who live on fixed tion pricing in London. In 2000, London began a new form of administration, headed incomes. In most European countries, by an executive mayor whose platform included the introduction of congestion charg- fuel taxes are already very high, and ing in the Capital. After a thorough study, the British government enacted legislation to increasing them even more would be permit direct charging for road use, creating the Greater London Authority (ROCOL highly unpopular. This is also true in Working Group 2000). This plan is now being prepared with the aim of implementa- the United States, where fuel taxes tion by the end of 2002 (Greater London Authority 2001). are relatively low. The current plan will cover the ten-square-mile Central Business District, and charges will be levied between 7:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. on weekdays. The daily charge of £5 Congestion pricing. Congestion will apply to both cars and commercial vehicles. Public transport, some other public pricing, or peak-period pricing, is a service vehicles, motorcycles, vehicles of people with disabilities, and electrically pro- specific pricing scheme that charges pelled cars will not be charged. License plates will be checked against a list of vehicle auto users a premium for using road numbers with a valid warrant to travel (automatically entered into a computer database capacity when it is scarce, i.e., at on payment of the charge), and a number of traffic-management and public-transport peak periods. Singapore's “area improvements are to be introduced concurrently. The scheme is predicted to reduce licensing scheme,” which has been in traffic in central London by 10% to 15% and reduce congestion by 20% to 30%, and continuous operation since 1975, is should generate net revenue of £190m a year, which must by law be spent on improv- often cited as an example of the ing transport in London. potential effectiveness of congestion pricing as a tool to relieve conges- Prime Minister Tony Blair joined with the Conservative Party in opposing the London tion. Under this scheme, fees congestion-charging scheme. Together, they pledged to block the proposal in London’s imposed on cars entering the city governing body, the Greater London Assembly. It will be interesting to see whether center during rush hours have result- Mayor Livingstone, who made the congestion-charging scheme one of his central elec- ed in roughly a 40% decrease in toral pledges, will succeed in making the 40-year-old dream of British transport peak-hour traffic. Variable tolls imple- economists come true. mented on several French autoroutes on approaches to Paris and in three cities in Norway (Bergen, Trondheim, again in the 1990s were rebuffed. Nonetheless, there are some indica- and Oslo) have likewise had a signifi- Under a Congressionally authorized tions that the future of congestion cant impact, by spreading travel “Congestion Pricing Pilot Program” pricing is likely to be brighter than its demand to “shoulder” periods. enacted in 1991 and reauthorized in past. First, technology is no longer a However, efforts to introduce conges- 1996, a number of communities car- hurdle; the development and tion pricing more widely have, thus ried out “pre-implementation” stud- widespread experience with far, met with only limited success. ies, only to conclude that there is not advanced electronic fare collection Until recently technology was a hur- enough political support to proceed mechanisms renders the actual dle: The technologies needed to with implementation (Orski 1992). implementation of a congestion-pric- implement efficient tolling on high- Congestion-pricing initiatives in ing program relatively straightfor- speed, high-capacity roadways have Sweden and the Netherlands have ward. Second, there are some recent become available only in the last likewise met with opposition. An experiences where congestion-pric- decade. Furthermore, for a number of attempt to implement a congestion- ing schemes have been successfully reasons, citizens and their politicians pricing scheme in London has also introduced without significant oppo- in most places have resisted the use met with significant opposition (see sition. Politically, the best prospects of pricing to restrict peak-period driv- feature box). for wider adoption of this strategy ing. In the United States, attempts by appear to be in connection with the the federal government to promote introduction of new roadway facili- congestion pricing in the 1970s and ties where the tolled facility offers a

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high level of service alternative to Building new roads is not as easy as it Underground older, unpriced, competing facilities. used to be. There is little reason to Metroroutes In Southern California in the 1990s, believe that opposition to new high- implementations of this sort included ways will lessen in the future. With surface rights-of-way through the opening of a privately funded Although new roads will be built, densely populated areas virtually and operated SR91 Express Lanes concerns about environmental and exhausted, the Paris regional trans- system, allowing drivers of single- social sustainability will slow the pace portation authorities are planning occupant vehicles to pay a fee to of expansion of new infrastructure to build underground routes as the access a time-saving lane previously and widen the gap between travel most efficient — and often the restricted to high-occupancy vehi- demand and highway capacity to only — way to relieve surface traf- cles.4 Drivers still have the option of meet that demand. Hence, by itself, fic congestion. The Paris regional staying on the old, slower, but expanding road infrastructure does plan for 2015 envisions a 100-kilo- unpriced facility. not seem to offer a valid strategy to meter network of high-capacity achieve an operationally sustainable underground highways or metro- transport system. routes. The plan calls for a low- Enhancing the Capacity and clearance, two-level roadway, each Efficiency of the Existing Road three lanes wide. and Public Transport Moreover, even discounting for new Infrastructure roads that will not be built because of The first application of the metro- Enhancements in the capacity or effi- community opposition, the demand route concept is a 10-kilometer seg- ciency of infrastructure can address for highways often exceeds the finan- ment of the A86-West autoroute, the economic sustainability of public cial resources available. Thus new and which would complete a missing transport and the operational sustain- innovative sources of financing are link of an outer beltway in the ability of the road system. often key to successful infrastructure Versailles area, west of Paris. projects. The most prominent and Engineers estimate that about 90% popular of these new financing meth- of traffic in the Paris region would Expanding the physical capacity ods are new twists on an old idea — qualify for the low-clearance dou- of the highway system. One way toll roads. Many new roads and high- bledeck tunnels. By excluding heavy to relieve road congestion is to ways in Europe, and some in the vehicles, the design can accommo- expand the capacity of the highway United States, are being built as toll date steeper entrance/exit ramps system by building new motorways, facilities and are financed by the rev- and tighter curves. Estimated cost widening and improving existing enue from their tolls. of the project, which is currently arterial highways, and eliminating under construction with a projected bottlenecks caused by inadequate opening date of 2003, is $2 billion, roadway design. Building new roads Innovation to increase the oper- or $320 million/mile. is the traditional approach to reliev- ational and economic efficiency ing congestion (or keeping conges- of public transport. There are a tion within tolerable limits). number of initiatives afoot that These include an increase in track promise to increase the operational sharing, i.e., joint use of mainline rail and economic efficiency of public lines by intercity, regional, and However, it is clear that building new transport systems. Some are based on municipal public transport system- roads is not a foolproof “solution” technological developments, such as wide; regional integration of public for congestion. Building new roads the use of smart cards as a fare medi- transport schedules and fares; the is not always possible; it is almost um; the development of real-time development of regional transporta- always expensive; and the new passenger information systems that tion associations; and the widespread capacity is regularly swamped by immediately inform passengers of outsourcing of public transport ser- traffic growth induced in part by the delays in the system’s extensive use of vice operations to save money and anticipated easier travel conditions Global Positioning Satellites (GPS)- improve service. and changes in land use.5 Although based automatic bus location sys- it is difficult to measure “induced tems; and dynamic scheduling and demand” — trips that would not routing of paratransit to meet excess Among the most important global have been taken but for the con- demand or make up for delays. Still trends in public transport manage- struction of the new roads — ana- other innovative operational initia- ment are efforts to improve the eco- lysts agree that new roads induce tives include door-to-door public nomic viability and efficiency of pub- some new traffic. Estimates of transportation service. lic transport by turning the operation induced traffic’s share of total traffic of public transportation systems over range widely, with estimates ranging to the private sector. Known in its from 10% to 100% of all traffic (e.g., Other initiatives involve more vigor- various forms as deregulation, privati- SACTRA 1994, Hansen and Huang ous and imaginative management by zation, outsourcing, contracting, fran- 1997, Fulton et al. forthcoming). public authorities and institutions. chising or competitive tendering, the

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aim is always the same: to improve Real-time Passenger ● Advanced payment mechanisms. the service quality and performance Information Systems Electronic toll collection (ETC) of public transport by injecting com- reduces bottlenecks at toll petition and entrepreneurial Signs that tell riders precisely when plazas, and makes possible the approaches into service delivery. the next train will arrive are a com- use of congestion-sensitive mon sight in the rail public trans- highway tolls that can increase port systems of Germany, charges during rush hours. Deregulation and outsourcing are Switzerland, Austria, and Japan. Smart cards enable more effi- particularly popular with govern- Radio receivers installed in the signs cient fare collection from trans- ments trying to improve public trans- receive up-to-the-minute informa- port riders. port service. No longer associated tion from the train control center with any particular political ideology, and computers on board the trains, ● Advanced traffic management deregulation and outsourcing do not and post the information almost technologies. Computer-con- necessarily imply complete privatiza- instantly on bright electronic dis- trolled, traffic-responsive signal tion. In many cases, the government plays in subway stations and at systems are used to smooth out retains policy-making functions (deci- light-rail stops. Such real-time pas- traffic flow. Improved equip- sions about routes, fares, schedules senger information systems are used ment and techniques shorten and service standards) and contracts widely by public bus systems the time required for routine with private providers for service throughout Europe and Asia. They road repairs and reduce disrup- operation. Service contracts are are now increasingly being used in tions caused by work zones. awarded competitively to the lowest the United States as well. responsible bidder. In some cases, It remains to be seen whether intelli- employees of a public transport agen- gent transportation systems will have cy may themselves compete for con- an impact on traffic congestion. So tract awards. rapidly. The second are vehicle- far, there is only limited anecdotal based emergency response sys- evidence of a positive impact of ITS tems using Global Positioning on congestion as measured by Operational highway improve- Systems (GPS) satellite technol- improved traffic flow and reduced ments using intelligent trans- ogy, which can pinpoint a car’s trip time. portation systems technology. location even if the driver is New and innovative management injured or cannot accurately techniques and technology are help- describe his or her where- ITS programs in the United States, ing improve the operations and effi- abouts. A third application also Western Europe, and Japan have ben- ciency of existing highways. uses GPS technology along with efited from sustained government Operational improvements are partic- automatic vehicle identification support. As these technologies ularly effective in reducing unpre- techniques to monitor and con- demonstrate success and prove their dictable disturbances in the traffic trol the movement and regulari- worth, the need for continued gov- flow caused by collisions, vehicle ty of vehicles. ernment developmental support is breakdowns, special events, and road being questioned. In the United repair. These improvements are made ● Advanced traveler information States, there is an emphasis on trans- possible by recent advances in a set systems. Traveler information ferring primary responsibility for of communication and information systems enable shippers, fleet implementing ITS systems to state technologies known collectively as operators, and individual travel- and local governments. In Europe and Intelligent Transportation Systems ers to make more informed Japan, national governments are (ITS) technology. The most significant transportation decisions based expected to continue playing a cen- technologies that have emerged after on real-time information about tral role in deploying ITS infrastruc- a decade of research and experimen- traffic conditions. For instance, ture. tation include: real-time traveler information systems alert motorists to incidents and special events and Improving the Available ● Sensing and communication tech- advise drivers about alternative Transport Options nologies. Three kinds of tech- routings. Real-time parking nologies are proving to be par- information systems guide ticularly important. The first are motorists to parking facilities Planners suggest two strategies to technologies that provide a that still have vacant spaces. facilitate sustainable mobility in this means to detect disturbances in Sophisticated roadway weather category. First, reduce auto depen- traffic flow quickly, enabling monitoring systems alert dency by increasing non-auto trans- highway operators to clear acci- motorists to unfavorable road port options. Second, provide mobili- dent scenes and restore normal conditions and road hazards ty and accessibility options for those operating conditions more ahead. who do not have access to autos.

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Provision of public transport. In Transport Deregulation Around the Developed World the last three decades, the cities of the developed world have significant- In the United Kingdom, public bus service in London was deregulated in 1984. A ly enhanced their public transport. In public authority, London Transport, determines routes, timetables, and fare structures, the EU, the bus and coach fleet has and sets service and vehicle specifications. In the mid-1990s, 40 companies provided steadily grown and is now 50% larger service under competitively awarded contracts. than in 1970. The total number of buses in the United States has grown In 1986, public transportation in the rest of the UK was deregulated, giving private car- by over 80%, although most of this riers complete freedom to determine fares and schedules. At present, more than 75% growth is in the number of school of public bus services are operated commercially. An assessment ten years after the buses. In Japan, the bus fleet grew by deregulation of bus services in Britain found that bus lines in London had gained rider- about a quarter during this period. ship, while those in other parts of the country had registered a marked decline. There has also been an expansion in Operating costs declined by 23.5% in London and 30% outside London during the urban rail in the last quarter century, period 1986 to 1995. For the same period, total subsidies decreased by 48.3% in with new systems constructed in a London and 28.8% outside London. number of US and European cities. In some cities (for example, Atlanta, Beginning in 1989, a wave of legislation transformed Scandinavian public transport, Miami, Naples, Bilbao, and Kyoto), with 16 of Sweden’s 24 counties now awarding contracts competitively. In Stockholm, this has taken the form of metros, private operators provide approximately 80% of metropolitan bus and rail services. while in other, generally smaller cities Similarly, under 1989 Danish legislation, Copenhagen Transport was required to con- (such as Portland, San Jose, Nantes, vert its bus service to competitive contracting. And Helsinki, Finland, completed con- Rouen, and Manchester), it has taken version of all bus services to competitive contracting in 1995. the form of light rail. Most of the established metro systems outside the Although Switzerland’s Postbus Service is owned by the Swiss government, 80% of United States have been extended its bus services are now contracted. The 20% that are operated directly by Postbus are over the last two decades, and higher subject to the same competitive bidding requirements as the contract carriers. degrees of automation are being Switzerland's new Railway Act aims to bring competition to regional public transport. introduced. However, though these enhancements in the provision of In Tokyo and Osaka, Japan, private subway lines have been operating for many years public transport have been accompa- on a fully integrated basis with municipally owned systems. Most major cities through- nied in most cases by increases in out Australia — Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, and Perth — have converted or intend absolute levels of patronage, public to convert to competitive bidding. This includes bus as well as rail services. In New transport's share of total trips and Zealand, a 1990 act of Parliament required that all public transport services be provid- total kilometers traveled has actually ed commercially or under a “competitive pricing procedure,” and the reforms were declined almost universally across the completed in 1996. developed world in this period. In the United States, private provision of public transport service is rare, although examples exist. Las Vegas has converted its entire public transport system to competi- Improving nonmotorized trans- tive contracting. Indianapolis runs about 70% of its bus service under private contracts, port. Among the OECD countries, and Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, and San Diego also contract significant portions of Denmark and the Netherlands are the their bus services. leaders in promoting NMT. The second Dutch Traffic and Transport Structure Scheme (SVV2), covering the period 1990–2001, identifies the period 1990–1997, to promote and roughly half the total length of the bicycle as the ideal mode for trips of improve bicycle use. Roughly 575 mil- city’s road network. Bicycles sharing up to 5–10 kilometers (in fact 40% of lion guilders (US$230 million) was the roadway with cars are given prior- all automobile trips in the Netherlands spent by central, provincial or local ity over turning vehicles at intersec- are less than 5 kilometers in length). government on bicycle projects. tions, and a public education pro- At the same time, the SVV2 recog- Despite this substantial public invest- gram inculcates a “culture of respect” nizes a number of issues associated ment, BMP research concluded that by drivers for pedestrians and bicy- with bicycle use, including the need bicycle policy alone was not sufficient clists. Such initiatives have resulted to provide direct, safe, and attractive to increase bicycle use and restrain (EU 2001) in Copenhagen’s having bicycle routes between residences and growth in car use (ECMT 2001). one of the lowest rates of transporta- trip destinations; the need to provide tion-related fatalities per person in the bicycle parking facilities; and the world (1.3 deaths or serious injuries problems of safety and bicycle theft. Denmark has some of the most per year per thousand residents). Within the framework of the SVV2, aggressive pro-NMT policies in the Copenhagen also runs a City Bike pro- the government developed a national world. Copenhagen has roughly 300 gram, which in 1997 provided rough- Bike Master Plan (BMP), covering the kilometers of separated bicycle trails, ly 2,500 free bikes at key locations

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Advanced Traffic Information Systems in Tokyo, Japan vide mobility for those without access to autos. Effective solutions frequently In the Tokyo metropolitan area, motorists can access one of two traveler information focus on particular groups, such as systems. The first system, launched in February 1994, is operated by the for-profit ATIS the poor, those with disabilities, or Corporation, a partnership of the Tokyo Municipal Government and several private the elderly. Policymakers typically companies. The company’s traveler information center receives traffic data from various focus on three kinds of strategies: sources, merges it and sends updates to the subscribers’ terminals (personal computers, in-vehicle devices, etc.) every five minutes. The second service, VICS (Vehicle Information and Communication System), established as a cooperative venture ● Ensuring that mainline public between Japan’s Ministry of Post and Telecommunications, the National Police Agency, transport services are sensitive to and private industry, began operation in the Tokyo metropolitan area in April 1996. the needs of those without access VICS provides drivers with real-time information on traffic conditions, travel time, high- to autos. Often agencies provide way incidents, lane closure, construction updates, and parking availability using an FM minimum levels of off-peak multiplex broadcasting system and roadside microwave and infrared beacons to com- public transport service to municate with motorists. The beacons can superimpose traffic data on digital road ensure that service is available maps displayed on the car’s video screen and provide more detailed information in the for so-called captive riders, even form of text messages. As of 1998, about 3,600 microwave beacons and 18,000 when such service would not be infrared beacons installed along the expressway network served nearly three million justified on strict economic equipped autos throughout Japan. The chief source of revenue for VICS operation is a grounds. Also, there has been a fee imposed on manufacturers of VICS in-vehicle devices. concerted effort across the developed world to ensure that public transport service is acces- Traffic and Incident Management, Melbourne, Australia sible to those with special needs. For instance, in the Since 1989, Melbourne’s freeways have been equipped with an electronic congestion United States, the 1990 and incident detection system (ACIDS) using detection loops at approximately 500- Americans with Disabilities Act meter intervals. The loops send signals every 20 seconds to a traffic control center indi- laid out a minimum set of phys- cating speed, volume, and lane occupancy data. Should the rate of change be signifi- ical design standards for public cant over several consecutive intervals, an alarm is sounded in the traffic control center. transport vehicles and stations Once the central computer raises an incident alarm, operators view the area by video that public transport services surveillance and take appropriate action to inform motorists of the congestion ahead must meet to serve those with and dispatch an incident-clearing team. special needs.

Drive Time, an extension of the incident detection system, uses the same detection ● Paratransit services. In several loops to calculate travel time for each 500-meter section of the road. Times in adjacent regions, there are trips that con- segments are totaled and converted to times between freeway exits. The information is ventional public transport is presented on electronic variable message boards, showing estimated travel times from unable to serve. In many cases, the sign location to various freeway exits. A color-coded strip shows traffic conditions local authorities provide dedi- on segments between each major exit. Other variable message signs at freeway entry cated demand-responsive para- ramps alert drivers of traffic conditions on the freeway, giving them an opportunity not transit services to help people to enter (or exit) the freeway if conditions ahead are “red.” Information about travel with special needs complete times between specific freeway exits and about incidents is also available over the those trips. Such programs are telephone. often targeted at the disabled and the elderly. (Examples include “The Ride,” offered by the Massachusetts Bay around the city. The bikes are paid for automobile ownership in Denmark is Transportation Authority in the by advertising, and are maintained by discouraged through very high vehi- Boston metropolitan region.) the Municipality, using prison cle registration fees (105% to 180% These services have both advan- inmates. There are plans to increase of the vehicle purchase price), tages and disadvantages relative the number of bikes in the program. although the gasoline tax is in the to conventional public trans- Copenhagen has also taken measures middle of the range of European port. Being demand-responsive to make the use of cars undesirable; rates. Roughly one-third of the city’s and door-to-door, they often for example, it has reduced the avail- home-to-work trips are made by bicy- offer a high level of service, and ability of parking and converted cle (Newman and Kenworthy 1999). as a result there is disagreement streets to pedestrian zones. The city about what constitutes fair and has also pursued a public transport- efficient pricing for the service. oriented urban development plan (the Providing transport options for On the other hand, these ser- so-called finger plan, based on radial those without autos. There are vices usually require significant rail corridors). At the national level, many programs and policies to pro- advance planning. Also, many

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citizens with disabilities argue Portland, Oregon’s Urban Growth Boundary — The Rigors that as a matter of dignity they of Land-Use Planning deserve to be integrated with mainstream society as much as The experience of Portland, Oregon, has been widely cited as an example of using possible, and being able to use land-use policy to guide new development into public transport-friendly high-density public transport is an important growth. Though Portland has indeed achieved much by way of compact, public trans- element of this effort. Many citi- port-friendly development, a closer look at the city's experience reveals the tensions zens with disabilities and their and controversies associated with such land-use planning, and identifies some of the advocates decry targeted para- costs that accompany the sustainability benefits. transit services — even those offering higher levels of service The current planning regime owes its origins to legislation passed in the 1970s, which than conventional public trans- required every city to delineate an urban growth boundary. The initial goal was to port — as humiliating. identify enough vacant land to accommodate projected long-range urban population growth. New development outside of the growth boundaries was regulated to protect ● Direct user-side subsidies to help existing farms and other rural uses from leapfrog development. More than one-third of those without autos either get the land included in the original growth boundary for the Portland metropolitan area them (in the case of the poor) was vacant, and only around 10% of the vacant land was unfit for development. or buy alternative transport ser- Almost all of the original vacant land available for development has now been filled in. vices (such as taxi service) Metro, Portland’s directly elected regional government, which is statutorily responsible directly. for verifying the availability of adequate land for 20 years of future growth every five years, resisted pressures to expand the boundary during its first 20 years. It instead preferred to accommodate growth by encouraging local governments to adopt higher Land-Use and Urban Design density zoning standards, with limited success.6 Although more than 30 boundary Strategies adjustments were made during this period, each involved less than 20 acres. However, pressures on Metro have mounted, bolstered by significant increases in housing In the last three decades, some urban prices.7 In 1998, Metro authorized an expansion of around 3,500 acres, creating regions in the developed world have enough room for approximately 23,000 housing units and 14,000 jobs. successfully employed land-use policy to facilitate a pattern of development There remains considerable disagreement in Portland about the effectiveness and bene- in which public transport can play a fits of the urban growth boundary; supporters argue that it has controlled sprawl and significant mobility role, and limit encouraged public transport use, while detractors argue that it has provoked land and sprawl. housing price increases by creating artificial scarcity. Neither of these claims appears to Before discussing alternative policy be entirely accurate. On the one hand, development in the vacant areas frequently regimes, it is important to note that exhibits the typical characteristics of sprawl; it is probably true, however, that the land-use policy works best in rapidly boundary limited the spatial extent of the sprawl. On the other hand, land and housing growing residential and commercial prices in Portland are still not particularly high compared to similar areas in the region. developments where existing struc- Some argue that price increases in the 1990s can be entirely explained by traditional tures can be easily reused over time. market forces. In summary, Portland's apparent “success” in managing land use is con- In established regions, the durability stantly being put to the test. Though the current regional government seems to be of existing housing stock limits the committed to a sprawl control policy, it needs to remain responsive to its local con- effectiveness of land-use measures. In stituents and is also required by statute to ensure that land shortages do not persist. the United States and the United Kingdom, for example, annual con- Sources: Newman and Kenworthy 1999, Knaap 2000, Portland Metro 2000, Patterson n.d. struction of new housing represents only around 1% of the existing stock.

Public transport-oriented devel- along commuter rail lines radiating opposition to high-density develop- opment. This policy encourages resi- from the city; the French villes nou- ment makes public transport-oriented dential, employment, and recreation velles on the outskirts of Paris; development difficult to implement. buildings to cluster around rail public Toronto’s high-rise developments Spatial location policies: The transport stations. The goal is to build along the Yonge Street subway; Dutch ABC policy. The compact, pedestrian-friendly commu- Japan’s public transport communities Netherlands, one of the smallest nities where many trips can be made at the termini of private rail lines; and developed nations in Europe, has a on foot or by bicycle, and longer Germany’s transit-oriented suburban comprehensive approach to land-use commutes are made by train. communities such as Munich’s planning: the ABC policy. Dutch plan- Perlach and Frankfurt’s Neustadt. In ning focuses not only on curbing traf- This approach has been followed the United States, on the other hand, fic growth and urban sprawl, but also widely — and successfully — in only a few examples of public trans- on developing compact cities and Europe, Canada, and Japan. Examples port villages exist. In a great many protecting open areas. ABC explicitly include Stockholm’s satellite towns suburban locations, community seeks to reduce automobility through

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The Public Transport Metropolis fied in terms of their public transport and road accessibility. The policy A study of 12 metropolitan areas where public transport successfully retained a attempts to encourage businesses prominent mobility role found three common trends across the cities. First, a with a high number of employees vibrant city center, such as in Zurich and Melbourne, where public transport is an and visitors to locate on sites with important means of circulation. Second, an ability to adapt settlement patterns to good public transport accessibility, be conducive to public transport — such as in Stockholm, Copenhagen, Tokyo, such as near centrally located public and Singapore — by concentrating offices, homes, and shops around rail stations transport or rail stations (“A” sites) or in attractive, well-designed, pedestrian-friendly communities. Third, an ability to near major public transport nodes in adapt public transport technologies to serve spread-out, low-density patterns of less central locations (“B” sites). “C” growth, efficiently using a combination of institutional (such as an innovative track- sites, with good road access, are pri- sharing agreement between the municipal rail system and the regional railways in marily intended for businesses that Karlsruhe, Germany) and technological (such as the track-guided buses that pro- depend on road transport for their vide transfer-free feeder and line-haul functions in a single vehicle in Adelaide, operations. Associated with each type Australia) innovations. Key additional lessons include: of site are restrictions on the number of parking spaces that can be provid- ÅThe need to lay out a well-articulated vision of land use to direct transport planning ed there: “A” sites are limited to 10 for the future. Examples include Ottawa’s 1974 master plan that defined an to 20 parking spaces per 100 east-west axis for channeling growth, which led to North America's largest and employees and “B” sites to 20 to 40 most successful busway network. parking spaces per 100 employees. These rules are sufficiently restrictive ÅAn effective champion to articulate the vision, win others over to their vision, and that businesses have a strong incen- translate the vision into reality. Many successful public transport metropolises tive to locate in accordance with the have benefited from inspired leadership, such as Sven Markelius’ stewardship of intentions of the policy. the Stockholm regional plan, or mayor Jaime Lerner’s 20-year governance of Curitiba, Brazil. Overall, the Dutch accept the ABC ÅEfficient institutions and governance that promote close coordination of trans- policy, though objections to the high- portation and land use. One exemplary model is the Verkehrsverbund found in ly restrictive parking limits, along Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, which ensures that problems commonly with economic pressures at the local plaguing regional public transport services — such as a multitude of different or provincial levels, have led to a fares, uncoordinated timetables, and excessive transfers — are eliminated. relaxation of the parking rules in some areas of the country. ÅCompetition and an entrepreneurial ethos to contain costs, reward efficiency, and spur service innovations. For instance, in Munich, Karlsruhe, Curitiba, and Integrated Approaches Adelaide, the public sector retains control over how service is provided (level, quality, frequency, routing) and lets market forces and competition determine at The most successful examples of what price the service is provided. cities controlling automobility and improving the sustainability of their ÅGiving public transport priority and discouraging car use. Ottawa, Copenhagen, transport system use combinations of and Zurich give priority to public transport vehicles. These measures are supple- the policy options above. Isolated mented with restraints on automobile use by a combination of pricing and physi- policy responses are unlikely to have cal design. a significant impact.

ÅDesigning the city for pedestrians. An overarching design philosophy of most public transport metropolises is that cities are for people, not cars. For exam- Copenhagen, for example, combined ple, in Copenhagen, Munich, and Curitiba, large parts of the historical public transport-oriented land-use core are given over to pedestrians. In other cities, trams and light-rail vehicles planning, high automobile ownership blend nicely with auto-free zones. In addition, through conscious design, pub- charges, priority treatment of bicy- lic transport is made part of the community's physical and symbolic core. cles, and numerous improvements to center-city social life. Portland applied Source: Cervero 1998. spatial growth controls, development of a light-rail public transport system and, again, many enhancements to improve the quality of center-city life. programs such as the one encapsulat- The ABC policy classifies businesses ed in its slogan for business location: into three categories based on the “the right business in the right importance of their need for public As another example, Zurich upgraded place.” access and road transport. Business its tramways into a modern, high- development sites are similarly classi- quality, and reliable public transport

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system operating on separate rights- ● Sustainable development — travel-demand management, of-way obtained by removing traffic recommendation of a progres- the use of variable pricing, and lanes from general use. A computer- sively increasing fuel tax car sharing have shown a poten- based signaling system ensures that designed over time to make a tial for somewhat reducing our trams do not have to stop at traffic significant reduction in the reliance on automobiles. While intersections. Seasonal “Rainbow” amount of automobile travel. individually the impact of auto passes reduce riders’ cost per trip to The study recommended a 7% management measures may be very low levels. Intensive marketing annual increase in the real price small, collectively they can be a and information campaigns promote of fuel, applied continually over useful element in an overall the use of the tram system, and spe- the next 20 years. strategy for sustainable mobility. cial maps show people how to get to particular destinations such as restau- Several years after issuing its recom- ● Innovative policies and tech- rants and cultural attractions via the mendations, the OECD (2001) stated nologies have shown promise in public transport system. These public that “the practical application of even alleviating many of the harmful transport system improvements were one, let alone all three strands of this side effects of motorization. In accompanied by complementary policy package, faces formidable particular, the technology of land-use and urban improvement implementation barriers. Coherent Intelligent Transportation policies. Large shopping centers were integration of environmental, trans- Systems (ITS) may increase the developed around major stations. port, and land-use policy has proven efficiency and productivity of Urban public transport villages were to be extremely difficult.” While the the transportation system with- developed around the public trans- OECD was perhaps overly optimistic out requiring politically unten- port lines, including Tiergarten, a with regard to the timetable of imple- able new highway construction. public transport village built in an menting their recommended mea- abandoned quarry in central Zurich. sures, the example stands as a warn- ● The influence of public trans- As a result of these and related mea- ing of the dangers of extrapolating port as an instrument of sus- sures, the automobile mode share for measures (or even coordinated tainable mobility is expected the journey to work fell by 9% groups of measures) that have to decline if cities spread out between 1980 and 1990. worked in particular cities to a nation- and their populations continue al or supranational level. to disperse. However, public transport will remain essential In the mid-1990s, in a major study of for the future mobility and urban travel and sustainable develop- CONCLUSIONS: A STRATEGY FOR economic viability of large ment, the OECD concluded that suc- SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY metropolitan regions in the cessful treatment of the problems of industrialized world. sustainable mobility will require inte- This assessment of existing issues and grated approaches that combine trends associated with the search for ● Private financing may offer mutually reinforcing measures (OECD sustainable mobility suggests the fol- alternate sources of capital for 1995b). It recommended approaches lowing general conclusions: highway infrastructure. that were classified into three integrated “strands”: ● Environmental concerns will ● The need for mobility will seriously constrain future high- increase in the future. The chal- way construction in urban and ● Best practice — the wider use lenge is to develop strategies environmentally sensitive areas of known successful methods in that accommodate future of the developed countries. land-use and transport plan- mobility needs while controlling ning, traffic management, and and mitigating potential harm- ● Case studies of exemplary public transport provision. ful side effects, i.e., to create metropolitan mobility systems “sustainable mobility.” suggest that several factors fos- ● Policy innovations — appli- ter a favorable sustainable cation of research into land-use ● Automobile-based transporta- mobility environment: planning and traffic manage- tion will continue to be the pre- ment. Innovative land-use plan- ferred means of personal mobili- ● Enlightened political ning policies would widen travel ty in the urbanized regions of leadership — a commitment choices by influencing the loca- the developed world. To pre- to achieving sustainable mobility tion of homes and jobs, while serve the automobile as a sus- at the highest levels of local traffic management measures tainable means of transporta- political leadership. would include congestion pric- tion, policies governing its use ing, telecommuting, and invest- will have to undergo significant ments to improve public trans- modification. Automobile man- port performance. agement techniques such as

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● Supportive policy NOTES environment — an explicit policy to support public trans- 1. The 15 EU countries account for portation. This policy may be roughly 13% percent of world CO2 accompanied by limiting the emissions, China for another 13%, use of automobiles in the city and Japan for roughly 5% of the center and traffic-calming mea- total. sures in residential areas. 2. These numbers exclude compensa- ● Stable fiscal environ- tion for concessionary fares, which ment — a dedicated source of is treated as a user rather than an funding to support operation of operator subsidy. the transportation system, and adequate capital to ensure a 3. The change in levels of delay are steady program of improve- probably more useful than absolute ments and expansion of trans- levels themselves, since traffic stud- portation infrastructure. ies usually measure delay relative to the time required to make a trip in ● Supportive land-use free-flow conditions. In reality, build- policies — a deliberate effort ing infrastructure with sufficient to concentrate development in capacity to allow free-flow condi- transportation corridors and tions under all levels of traffic would control the rate of development never be economically justified. outside designated urban boundaries. 4. The location is remarkable. Prior to the SR91 lane, there were no toll ● Receptivity to innova- highways at all throughout tion — a willingness to intro- California, and Southern California duce new technology and is widely regarded as the worldwide experiment with new service- epitome of automobility. In the enhancing innovations. 1970s, attempts to dedicate an existing freeway lane in the Los ● Interagency coopera- Angeles region to high-occupancy tion — close coordination use had to be withdrawn in the face among various administrative of strong driver opposition. units in charge of transportation and physical interconnections 5. London’s orbital motorway (the between light rail, metros, and M25), completed in 1986, is often buses. cited as the most compelling example of this phenomenon.

6. The average lot size of new detached housing decreased from 13,200 to 8,700 square feet, and the percentage of attached housing (row- and townhouses) in the stock increased from around 3% to around 12% during the period. Such changes take a long time to produce their full effects and, of course, some of these changes may be attributable to factors unrelated to the growth boundary. Residential densities generally remained lower than originally planned.

7. Median home sales price increased by 91% between 1990 and 1997, compared to 21% for the nation as a whole.

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four

personal mobility in the urbanized regions of the developing world

The developing world is urbanizing and motorizing at a very rapid rate. Cities in the developing world are growing and motorizing so rapidly that they have not had the time or the money to build new infrastructure or to adapt to new technologies. The growth in the geographic spread of urban areas in the developing world is undermining the ability of public transport systems to provide the services on which most urban dwellers rely for the bulk of their mobility needs. In short, mobility, already poor for most developing-world urban dwellers, is declining.

Pollution, much of it transport-related, is at extremely high levels and is growing worse. Developing-world, transport-related carbon dioxide emissions are growing rapidly and will surpass transportation-related carbon dioxide emissions in the developed world in little more than a decade if present trends continue. Deaths and injuries from transport-related accidents occur at substantially higher rates than in the developed world.

Some developing-world urban areas are achieving some measure of success in dealing with these problems. But, even more than in the developed world, replicating these successes is proving extremely difficult.

The mobility picture in cities of the developing world is much more variable than in the developed world. Great variations in mobility result from levels and distributions of incomes in the cities, their histories of economic and administrative development, and many variables that defy easy categories. Yet many cities of the developing world share similar patterns in their mobility. Rising incomes, increasing motorization, congestion, and the growth of cities outward into suburbs — trends that are ingrained in the developed world — are clearly emerging in developing cities. Motorization is occurring so quickly in developing cities that not only is it overwhelming the operational sustainability of those cities’ infrastructure systems; it is also causing social, economic, and environmental imbalances and inequities.

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Most of the citizens of the developing vehicles. Survey research at social and economic fibers of their world are suffering from poor or Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) found nations will grow and flourish. deteriorating mobility conditions. In that people in the lowest-income many cities, average vehicle speeds quintile spend over 20% of their have declined to 10 kilometers per income for transportation, and the But the rapidly deteriorating mobility hour, and commute times of over an average over the entire urban popula- conditions of developing cities hinder hour or more, with corresponding tion is more than 15%. Typically the their progress on several fronts. For losses of productivity, are common. poorest, most recent arrivals in a city instance, Bangkok includes only 10% Cities suffer the most severe environ- are isolated on its fringes, living in of the population of Thailand, but mental impacts from motorization very modest dwellings and lacking accounts for 86% of the country’s because of the added congestion and many of the most basic services, such GNP in banking, insurance, and real because the motor vehicles tend to as sewerage and trash removal. Many estate, and 74% of its GNP in manu- be in poorer condition than those in of the “street people” of south Asia facturing. The World Bank estimates developed countries. Governments and Africa indeed have homes; it is that Bangkok loses up to 6% of its are loath to impose regulations that just that they are unable to reach economic production due to conges- would raise the cost of auto purchase them — because of the cost and/or tion (Willoughby 2000a). Indeed, and use. There is a tendency to keep time involved — between work days. Bangkok suffers far more burdensome already aging vehicles on the road congestion than any US city, despite much longer, and environmental reg- motorization levels of about 200 ulations governing emissions are Many thoughtful critics seek to autos per thousand population in poorly implemented. Developing reverse this trend toward urbaniza- 1990, compared to the US average of cities also suffer such high rates of tion, and cite Western capital, global about 675 autos per thousand at that serious traffic accidents, principally trade, consumer marketing — all the same time. inflicted on pedestrians and bicyclists disparate forces of “globalization” — by untrained or reckless drivers, that for despoiling formerly rural societies accidents are a serious public health and drawing people into cities. Most developing cities are simply too issue. Although the global economy has dense to handle motorization. certainly accelerated urban growth, it Chinese cities average 200 to 250 is not the root cause. The natural persons per hectare, compared to 50 At the root of these problems is the human desire to escape the drudgery persons per hectare in Western fact that cities of the developing and labor of subsistence farming, and European cities. This incredible densi- world are growing and motorizing so seek greater income, mobility, and ty creates great pressure for develop- rapidly they have not had the time or comfort is irresistible. Even China’s ing cities to grow, to sprawl outward, the money to build new infrastruc- rigid controls on internal migration a trend that automobile ownership ture or to adapt to new technologies. are unable to prevent the rapid encourages and accelerates. As con- The cities house and transport too growth of “undocumented” citizens gestion gets worse there is, in fact, an many people, on insufficient numbers in Beijing and Shanghai. increased advantage to using a pri- of poorly maintained roads and rails, vate car. In the absence of transit and lack the money and institutional with exclusive rights-of-way, conges- vigor to fix the problems. This seemingly inexorable trend tion is likely to be the worst on the toward urbanization has serious main arteries, which are used for implications for the developing public transit routes. Auto users can To put the problem in perspective, nations themselves, and for the glob- avoid this in some measure by choos- note that in 1950, less than 30% of al community at large. If developing ing routes or destinations that avoid the world’s population comprised nations are able to raise their the main arteries. urban dwellers. By 2005, that num- incomes, to improve their education ber will be 50%. Indeed, “megaci- and health care, and build socially ties” of more than 10 million people just, economically strong societies, Although automobiles improve the are now a defining characteristic of then such advancements will origi- mobility of their few, wealthy owners, the developing world. In 2000, 15 of nate in their cities. It is in cities that they increase congestion and delays the 19 megacities were in developing financial capital, economic expertise, for the many who cannot afford nations. By 2015, 18 of the 23 and ambitious labor accumulate, in them. Automobiles are a particularly megacities will be in the developing cities that politicians, bureaucrats, heavy burden on those whose travel world. and media debate, universities teach, is limited to slow-moving public hospitals heal, and where students, transport vehicles, which cannot artists, and citizens of energy and escape the congestion of major thor- The cities have large proportions of vision congregate, clash, and create. oughfares. That is not the auto's only their populations below the poverty It is in the cities, as sprawling, con- contribution to social inequity. On a line, people who in many cases can- gested, and unruly as many develop- larger scale, the outward growth of not afford even the fares of transit ing cities currently are, that the new cities widens the gaps between those

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able to afford cars and those that Table 4-1. Greater Santiago — evolution in motorization, cannot by moving economic and auto mode share, trips social opportunities beyond the reach of non-auto owners. Annual 1977 1991 Change Growth Autos/thousand persons 60 90 50% 2.9% To examine the mobility of developing cities in one chapter is a daunting Auto mode share 9.8% 15.8% 61% 3.4% task. Conditions in such a broad Trips/capita 1.14 2.12 86% 4.4% group, and the data available to Motorized trips/capita 0.95 1.7 79% 4.2% study them, vary widely. Neverthe- less, mobility in developing cities is a Source: SECTRA (1991). crucial topic for the WBCSD and its readers to examine. For it is in its automobiles.1 In places as diverse as The Rapid Growth of cities that the future health and vigor Santiago, Chile, and Jakarta, Motorization of the developing world rest. Indonesia, higher-income residents make 30% more trips than lower- Motorization — the growth in motor income residents. In São Paulo, the vehicle fleets — is the major force URBAN MOBILITY AND households from the highest-income affecting mobility in almost all areas MOTORIZATION: A GROWING sextile have more than double the of the developing world. More cars, CHALLENGE trip rate of households from the low- motorcycles, buses, trains, and trucks Rising incomes have led to a surge in est (Companhia do Metropolitano de mean that more people and goods the use of automobiles in the major São Paulo 1999, table 17). Also, as can potentially travel more places cities of the developing world. This was observed in Chapter 2, wealthier more rapidly. This is especially true trend is increasing the short-term people tend to travel using faster and when motor vehicle fleets increase mobility of individuals with the more expensive modes. Figure 4-1 more rapidly than population. The income to afford cars. Yet few cities in illustrates the effect of income on motorization rate — which measures the developing world have the roads mode choice in Santiago and São the number of motor vehicles per and highways to sustain widespread Paulo — as people seem to move person — provides a gross indicator use of automobiles. The result is from foot to public transport and of vehicle ownership levels, suggest- increasing congestion, air pollution, then to auto. ing, for example, what percentage of and rapid, yet haphazard land devel- the population has access to some opment. As more offices and jobs form of motorized transportation. The shift to locations accessible only by Table 4-1 illustrates that auto owner- term motorization typically refers to car, the income differentials and ship, and the rising incomes accom- road vehicles, although rail-based social inequities between automobile panying it, often result in a dispropor- forms of transport are also motorized. owners and the rest of their societies tionate increase in the use of autos. are exacerbated. Public transport and The table shows that a 50% increase nonmotorized transport (NMT), prin- in auto ownership in the period 1977 In the short run, motorization pro- cipally walking and bicycles, remain to 1991 led to a 61% increase in the vides improved individual mobility, the principal means of mobility for use of automobiles in the same peri- but the rapid pace often overwhelms most citizens of the developing od in Santiago. infrastructure, urban structures, and world. The challenge for policy-mak- institutions. Building infrastructure is a ers is to integrate automobiles, public lengthy and expensive process, one transport vehicles that range from Despite this growth in motorization, that can rarely keep pace with rapid small minivans to large buses, and the auto remains only a bit player as motorization, so short-term system NMT, in a manner that decreases a facilitator of mobility for most peo- imbalances and high congestion congestion and increases mobility ple of the developing world. A levels often result. Perhaps equally while minimizing other costs to the detailed look at mode shares across important, institutional structures may external environment. the cities in the developing world be even less suited to deal with rapid (see Figure 4-2 and Appendix Table motorization, as regulatory structures A-1) shows that public transportation and standards, public finance systems, Fundamentally, much of the rise in still dominates trip-making in almost and cultures change much more slow- motorization is driven by rising all cities. Indeed, the principal excep- ly than the growth rate in motor vehi- incomes for a section of the populations to this rule are some cities in cles. This often further exacerbates tion in the cities of the developing Asia and Africa — such as Tianjin and congestion as well as motorization’s world. Rising incomes lead to Marrekech — that still have a heavy other negative impacts, like accidents increased levels of trip-making, share of walking and/or nonmotor- and air pollution. In the short run, the motorization, and shifts from public ized vehicle trips. rate of change in motorization poses transportation to private the greatest challenge, while in the

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long run the challenge comes from example, Ingram and Liu 1999); the vehicle fleet is increasing at 15% the total overall number of motor across countries, per capita income a year, automobiles by 25% a year. In vehicles. explains 70% to 80% of a nation’s countries such as Philippines, motorization rate (IIEC 1996). Not Thailand, and Cambodia, the average surprisingly, high motorization has annual rate of motor vehicle fleet Empirical analysis suggests that motor usually accompanied high rates of growth from 1991 to 1996 was high- vehicle ownership increases roughly economic growth, as in certain Asian er than 20%. As a result of continu- in step with income growth (see, for countries in the recent past. In China, ous growth in the last 30 years —

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including an annual growth rate of Iran, South Korea, Kenya, Mexico, Beyond the low motorization rates 23.7% in the period between 1985 Thailand, and Chile about 50% of the and generally rapid growth in motor and 1992 — in 1996 South Korea country’s automobiles are in the capi- vehicle fleets, there are some impor- had motor vehicle ownership of over tal city (WRI 1996). Similarly, the tant differences between motoriza- 200 per thousand people. motorization rate in Bogotá — over tion in the developing world and 100 cars per thousand people — is that in the developed world. First, two times higher than the national there is the astonishingly rapid Further, motorization is overwhelm- level (DAMA 2001a). In 1998, Harare speed with which motorization is ingly concentrated in the urban reportedly concentrated 45% of occurring — a speed, as we will dis- areas of the developing world (see Zimbabwe’s vehicles, a share that had cuss later, too fast for infrastructure Appendix Table A-2 for detailed climbed from 37% in 1994. provision to keep up with. Second, motorization rates), for several rea- although enough to overwhelm the sons. First, national wealth concen- trates largely in the urban areas of these countries. As a result, the There is Significant Variation in the Motorization Rates majority of people with incomes Across the Developing World over the threshold of auto owner- By 1996, the average motorization rate in the developing countries was about 30 ship live in cities. Second, technolo- vehicles per thousand people, with the majority having less than 50 vehicles per gy import (e.g., through joint ven- thousand people (compared with 400 or more per thousand people in the devel- tures), foreign direct investments, oped world). infrastructure improvement, and individual life-style changes mostly Over a dozen wealthier developing countries, such as Malaysia, Argentina, South occur first in urban areas. Africa, Mexico, Costa Rica, Chile, Panama, Uruguay, Thailand, and Belarus, had exceeded the motorization rate of 100 vehicles per thousand people. Lower-income countries, on the other hand, have one-tenth the per capita fleet levels, leading to In India, for example, the four the possible characterization of “two tiers” of developing countries. Over the spec- metropolitan areas of Delhi, Mumbai, trum of the motorization rates in the developing countries, the Latin American coun- Calcutta, and Bangalore account for tries are largely at the higher end, the African countries are at the lower end, and the about 5% of the nation’s population Asian countries fall in between — average motorization rates in 1996 were around 80, but 30% of the total registered vehi- 20, and 40 vehicles per thousand people, respectively (see Table 4-2). cles (TERI 2001, World Bank 2000). In

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Motorization is Not All Autos — The Role of Two-Wheelers decade. Inequality of mobility in the developing city is worse when sizable Although the data in Table 4-2 refers only to automobiles, two-wheelers are an portions of the urban population are important element of motorization in parts of Asia and Africa. Including two-wheel- in both motorized and nonmotorized ers, most Indian cities have private motor vehicle ownership rates similar to the categories. When employment wealthier cities of Latin America (which are nearly all due to four-wheeled vehicles), opportunities migrate to areas that while doing the same for Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok pushes those cities’ motoriza- are accessible only by auto, the tion levels close to those of western European countries. Reasons cited for the motor- dilemma is that people without cycle motorization phenomenon in many countries include: lower capital and oper- access to automobiles become ating costs than automobiles, coupled with lower levels of real purchasing power; excluded from new economic superiority in time and door-to-door convenience relative to autos in congestion; growth. Thus while motorization is in superiority to an often deteriorating public transport system. All lead to widespread relatively early stages but increasing acceptance of the motorcycle among the middle class (Akinyemi and Medani 2000). rapidly, inequality also increases Despite their prevalence, until recently motorcycles have been ignored both in plan- rapidly. ning and infrastructure implementation (including traffic counts) as well as in pollution control efforts. This is changing. The motorcycle may well be serving as a step- ping-stone for private vehicle users, who will move from bicycles to motorcycles and Nonmotorized Transport (NMT): perhaps eventually to automobiles. For example, in Hanoi the number of bicycles per Still a Dominant Means of Travel thousand people increased from 143 in 1955 to nearly 500 by the end of the 1980s. Since 1985, however, motorcycles have increased sharply, growing from just 7.5% of NMT is the dominant means of trans- the two-wheeled fleet to 33% by 1992. Bicyclists have, reportedly, registered a con- port in the developing world because comitant decline — an estimated 10% annually (Hai 1995). the majority of citizens cannot afford access to motorized transport. Across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, studies show walking to be the major existing road infrastructure, motor- rapid motorization may in many transport mode among the poorest ization in developing countries is still ways actually decrease the mobility city residents (see, for example, low in absolute levels compared to of those who do not have access to Barrett 1991, Heierli 1992, Hathway the developed world. Perhaps most automobiles. 1996, and Figure 4-1 in this report). important, however, are the stagger- Even in relatively motorized Latin ing differences in vehicle ownership America and Central and Eastern across income groups. In other The overall motorization growth in Europe, walking still accounts for words, though growth in auto own- the developing countries simply 20% to 40% of all trips in many ership has done much to improve means that more people are on the cities. In Warsaw, for example, walk- the mobility of the few in the devel- move. The demand for mobility may ing accounted for 30% of all trips in oping world who have directly bene- be even larger in developing coun- 1993 (Malasek 1995, p. 177). fited from it, it has not necessarily tries than in developed countries, enhanced the mobility levels of the given that the magnitudes of both vast majority, who continue to rely the total urban population and its The widespread use of walking by the on nonmotorized travel and motor- growth in the developing world are poor, explains, in part, the long aver- ized public transport. Indeed, our nearly ten times larger than those in age travel times seen in developing discussion will illustrate that this the developed world during the past country cities. Although walking can

Table 4-2. Motorization rates in developing nations, 1998

Motorization Motorization (vehicles/ (vehicles/ Upper Middle thousand thousand Income inhabitants) Lower Income inhabitants) Argentina 176 Egypt 30 Brazil 77 Honduras 37 Hungary 268 India 7 Libya 209 Indonesia 22 Malaysia 172 Kenya 14 Mexico 144 Mozambique 1 Averages 174 18.5 Source: World Bank (2000).

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be burdensome and unsafe in the (500 per thousand population). This from large minibus companies with presence of dangerous traffic condi- is more than double the rate in the several vehicles in their fleets, to indi- tions, it also has some benefits: no next highest city, Delhi, and repre- vidual taxi and rickshaw operators. cost, flexibility of schedule, and no sents the highest bicycle usage rates risk of vehicle damage. The main in the sample (Tiwari and Saraf problems with walking are the poor 1997). Guangzhou also had an even While the bus may be the traditional provision of adequate infrastructure split between male and female “workhorse” of developing cities’ (i.e., sidewalks, crosswalks, etc.), cyclists, while in the rest of the cities transportation systems, most cities which contributes to the high inci- men comprised by far the larger offer a rich menu of vehicle types dence of pedestrians being hit by share (90% and higher). providing some form of public or motor vehicles; barriers posed by paratransit transportation service. major road projects and inconvenient Paratransit’s share in urban transport pedestrian overpasses; and the long In some cities, primarily in Asia, non- varies from a low of about 5% of distances many poor residents must motorized cycle rickshaws offer a motorized trips in Dakar, Taipei, and travel for daily trips. The poor typical- form of paratransit (see the following Tel Aviv, to some 40% in Caracas and ly live far from quality employment, section), providing important mobili- Bogotá, and as high as 65% in and educational, shopping, and ty services to the poor and lower Manila and several other Southeast recreational opportunities. Their middle class. Many cities in India, Asian cities (Cervero 1997). dependence on walking clearly ham- Bangladesh, Indonesia, the pers their accessibility. Philippines, Vietnam, and China use cycle rickshaws extensively. These There are many different types of vehicles offer employment opportuni- paratransit and public transport vehi- While walking may predominate ties to the drivers, eliminate the risk cles in the cities of developing coun- among the poor, it is not exclusive to of vehicle theft for the user, and also tries, ranging from nonmotorized the poor. Even the highest income eliminate the up-front capital costs three-wheelers (becaks) plying the groups in São Paulo, for example, that an individual would otherwise narrow streets of Surabaya to the take over 10% of all their trips on face to make a bicycle purchase. 250-passenger, bi-articulated buses foot. In addition, it must be remem- on the high-capacity segregated bered that most public transport trips busways of Curitiba, with almost also start with a walk trip — in In general, bicycle and other nonmo- every two-, three-, and four-wheel Santiago, for example, between 70% torized vehicle use is highest in Asian vehicle imaginable in between. By and 80% of Metro trips start or end cities and parts of Africa; in Latin one estimate there were 16 modes of with walking (Metro 2000). America (with the exception of Cuba) public transport on the city streets of and Central Eastern Europe it is nor- India (Darbera and Nicot 1986). mally less prevalent. Nonetheless, For the poor in the developing world, even in the traditional bike cities of private vehicle ownership is typically China, usage seems to be on the Latin America. In Latin America, confined to nonmotorized vehicles — decline due to rapid motorization, private-sector operators prevail under such as bicycles, animal carts, or cycle unsafe travel conditions, and an various forms of public “manage- rickshaws. In the poorest regions, increasing negative public perception ment,” ranging from competitively ownership of such vehicles already of bicycling as a way to travel. tendered route franchises in, for indicates some level of economic example, Santiago and Buenos Aires, achievement. Indeed, in some places to the loosely regulated situation in such as China and Vietnam, owning a Public and Paratransit Systems: Lima. The operating “companies” bicycle is considered middle-class, The Crux of Developing-City also run the gamut, from a handful of although motorization is quickly Mobility private operators in Brasilia to literally changing that reality. Generally, in hundreds, if not thousands, of owner- most countries where bicycle use is Road-based public transport still car- operators in places like Mexico City. highly prevalent, it is not exclusively a ries the brunt of passenger transport In some places the public sector still mode for the poor, but rather is more duties in the cities of most develop- plays a service provision role, while in widely spread across the population ing countries. The structure and level others some form of subsidy to pri- at large, suggesting the presence of a of provision of road-based public vate operators is provided. bicycle “culture.” For example, a transport varies considerably across recent study of bicycle use in five the developing world. A common developing-country cities in India, trend across the globe is that formal “Informal” operators have become an China, Central and South America, public-sector bus transit is increasing- important force in much of the and Africa found that the Chinese city ly overwhelmed by nimbler, informal region, grabbing market share from Guangzhou, despite having the high- “paratransit” competition, which is unwieldy larger operators, while also est per capita income, also had by far loosely regulated by the public sector. becoming political powers strongly the highest bicycle ownership rates Private paratransit operators range shaping policy and a government’s

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ability to implement that policy. For drawal of the British company, From 1988 to 1992, public transport example: Stagecoach, from its partnership in ridership in Hungary went down by operating Kenya Bus (Koster and Hop 33% and in Poland by 13%, while in 2000). According to an analysis of the Czech Republic the decline was a In Mexico City, colectivos several bus and matutu routes, the modest 2% (Pucher 1999). Currently, evolved from government-toler- matutus completely dominate bus several forms of private participation ated shared sedan taxis, serving system operations in every respect, are being pursued, such as the so- 5% of trip demand in the early providing passengers service with called joint stock company and, 1980s, to a massive fleet of nearly half the waiting and total trip increasingly, sub-contracting and minibuses today, effectively sup- time, at two-thirds the price (see franchising of services. planting bus service in the city Table 4-3). and likely also cutting into the city’s Metro ridership. Informal operators are also on the In cities such as Recife (Brazil) Similar cases of paratransit domi- rise, but not universally. For example, and San José (Costa Rica), infor- nance appear in Harare, Zimbabwe in Riga, the capital of Latvia, public mal van services and minibuses (see Mbara 2000), and in South companies still dominate, despite are successfully competing with African cities, where minibuses (kom- poor operating performance; the pri- formal bus services for trips in bis) dominate. In metropolitan vate sector is apparently not growing outlying areas of the city (de Johannesburg, for example, 35,000 as rapidly as in other countries of the Aragão et al. 2000). kombis — nearly 60% of which oper- region. In the Ukraine, on the other ate illegally — account for over 50% hand, up to 50% of service is now of all public transport trips, causing a operated by the private sector, typi- Africa. In Africa, formal bus service is decline in the bus services provided cally in minibuses; however, a poor provided using different combina- by government and private operators regulatory environment persists tions of public and private operation. (Vorster et al. 2000). (Gwilliam 2000a). For instance, in Egypt, South Africa, and Tunisia, bus service is predominantly provided by the public sector, Eastern and Central Europe. Asia. Finally, the large and diverse while in Nairobi it is privatized. Eastern and Central Europe and region of Asia has a high share of However, as in Latin America, the countries of the former Soviet Union publicly operated (and, typically, low- effectiveness of such formal systems is still display residual characteristics of quality) services in India, Bangladesh, increasingly being undermined by the former state-owned systems, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, each of competition from the informal sector. although central government’s divest- which has experimented — to vary- In Nairobi, the fully private, unsubsi- ment of financial and vehicle respon- ing degrees — with allowing formal dized system has witnessed a drastic sibility to local governments threw forms of private operations. China’s decline in the mode share of large many systems into rapid deteriora- publicly run systems underwent buses since the legalization of tion. At the same time, declines in important changes in response to minibuses (matutus) in the mid- real income combined with higher economic liberalization, varying city 1970s. Some 6,500 12- and 25-seater unemployment reduced passenger by city and including state enterprise matutus currently capture 70% demand, so many systems experi- reform, service contracting, commer- (700,000 passengers per day) of the enced important declines in revenues cialization, and some degree of fran- public transport market; their domi- (Gwilliam 2000a). Not all systems chising and competitive route tender- nance reportedly led to the with- faced massive declines, however. ing (Gwilliam 2000b). In Kuala

Table 4-3. Overall average travel speeds in Nairobi — bus versus matutu

Matutu

Bus Matutu Advantage Average wait time (min) 24 14 44% Average trip time (min) 65 38 42% Average travel time (min) 90 52 42% Average fare ($/km) 0.03 0.02 28% Average trip speed (km/hr) 13 18 42% Average travel speed (km/hr) 9 13 41% Source: Koster and Hop (2000), p. 311. Note: Overall average based on AM/PM Peak and Off Peak.

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Lumpur and the major cities of ments has been pivotal. For example, been declining in recent years, Indonesia, private operations are the French have been active in selling despite fares two to three times strictly regulated. metro technology through the provi- cheaper than competing public trans- sion of loans for construction and port modes. The city’s population other significant capital outlays. simply continues to grow beyond the Again, paratransit seems to be play- system’s reach. There and in the rest ing a larger role in many parts of the of the developing world it is likely region. In Bangkok, a state-owned The principal aim and success of met- that the average person’s mobility monopoly, BMTA, took over the ailing ros is their ability to increase mobility. needs will continue to be fulfilled pri- private bus companies in 1979; a few In central travel corridors with heavily marily by road-based public transit. private companies remain operating burdened roads and buses, metros as partners under BMTA’s control. provide by far the most able method Filling BMTA’s service gaps are some of transporting large volumes, capa- Metros rarely, if ever, recover their 3,000 unlicensed minibuses offering ble of carrying up to 60,000 passen- construction and other capital costs suburban commuter services, nearly gers per hour per direction at operat- through operating revenues. Many 8,000 three-wheeled tuk tuks, and ing speeds of 30-40 kilometers per systems’ revenues do not even cover 100,000 unlicensed motorcycle taxis. hour. Theoretically, they can increase their operating costs, although others In the Central Asian Republic of passenger-carrying capacity in a corri- do. For example, a 1990 study (Allport Uzbekistan, bus availability by the dor by a factor of three, although in et al.) calculated the “farebox ratio” state-owned enterprises has suffered practice the range varies greatly (the ratio of revenues to operating severely from the fallout from post- depending on system configurations costs) for 10 systems and found that: Soviet era reform, declining at an and actual demand levels. average of 10% to 15% per year. ● Five systems had a farebox ratio Owner-operated minibuses have of less than 1.0 (Mexico City, stepped in to fill the gap, with 7- or High-passenger capacity comes at a Cairo, Porto Alegre, Rio de 11-seat minibuses now accounting cost, however. Depending on con- Janeiro, São Paulo). for anywhere from 20% to 50% of struction methods and management passenger trips (Gwilliam et al. 2000). and system alignment (i.e., above- ● Two had a ratio in the range of ground, at-grade, or underground), 1.0 to 1.5 (Pusan, Seoul). costs can range from $40 to $150

Urban Rail Transit million per kilometer. This high ● Three had a ratio above 1.5: expense typically relegates metro Santiago (1.6), Manila (1.8), Due to high capital costs and a lack deployment to the upper-tier cities in and Hong Kong (2.2). of flexibility to adapt to changing the developing world, with the travel patterns, fixed rail public trans- exception of China, where metros portation systems — metros and sub- exist in Beijing (44 kilometers), Tianjin These results can be a product of urban rail systems — have been (7 kilometers), and Shanghai (16 kilo- deliberate public policy (i.e., fares much more the exception than the meters), because of very high urban kept low for political purposes), poor rule in most cities of the developing densities and demand requirements. system planning (overestimated world. Most existing suburban rail Beyond China, metros and light rail demand projections), and/or ineffi- systems date to earlier eras, often can be found in many of the major cient operations. operating on links in the national rail cities of Latin America, Central and network. Today, significant suburban Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia rail services exist in Buenos Aires, (see Appendix Table A-3). A final note is that metros do provide Mumbai (Bombay), Chennai significantly greater mobility, but (Madras), and several Brazilian, they do not relieve congestion. Few Central/Eastern European, and South Despite their importance in serving metro riders are former auto users, African cities. Overall contribution to heavily traveled corridors, metros’ and any who are are quickly replaced total urban trips remains low — 7% role in satisfying total urban trips by new auto users. As a result, for in Johannesburg, 4% in Chennai, and remains marginal — 5% in São Paulo, almost all metros in the developing less than 3% in São Paulo. 7% in Santiago, and 14% in Mexico world, the question remains whether City (note, also, that the Mexico City the significant initial capital outlays system’s share is only motorized trips, were reasonable. Since the 1970s, many developing meaning that its share of total trips is countries have been investing heavily even lower). Even where extensive in metros, sometimes through joint systems do exist, metros still make Land Use and Transportation: partnership with the private sector, fewer daily passenger trips than road- The Architecture of Cities but more often through public invest- based public transport. In fact, in ments alone. The historic role of tech- Mexico City, which boasts one of the At the metropolitan level, the distri- nology vendors and foreign govern- world’s largest systems, ridership has bution of residences, offices, schools,

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etc. defines a city’s accessibility and the end of 1995 was 13 times greater Shanghai Expands determines virtually all transportation than in 1940. In large part, this urban Shanghai is evolving from a activity. As in the developed world, expansion was fueled by population densely populated city with one the structure of developing-country growth, particularly due to rural predominant core to a less com- cities and their growth patterns play migrants. Expansion was also fueled pact urban area with multiple a critical role in the mobility of citi- by the depopulation of more central centers, resulting in significant zens and their access to employment city areas. Today, perhaps the great- changes in the distribution of and other opportunities. In develop- est changes to urban structures are travel patterns. The 1984 ing cities, however, land use and city occurring in the former socialist Shanghai Master Plan added 252 structure are more critical to resi- countries of Eastern and Central square kilometers of land area dents’ accessibility than in developed Europe, as well as in the cities of east of the Huangpu River to cities, because the individual mobility China (see feature box), where mar- Shanghai for major urban expan- of citizens is much lower. ket forces have been increasingly sion. The core development pro- introduced to the existing planned- ject is a 30-square-kilometer economic systems. financial district on the east bank While it is impossible to generalize, of the river (Pudong New Area), there are many characteristics that across from the existing Central the cities in developing countries As in the developed world, suburbs Business District (CBD) on the share to some degree, which pro- are preferred by those wealthy other side of the river. The new foundly influence transportation pat- enough to buy homes and access area is planned to house two mil- terns and system performance: them in automobiles, but they lion people and to provide 1.2 impose costs and problems on million jobs by 2020. metropolitan communities as a ● A historical concentration of trip whole. The first challenge is similar to attractions in the city center. what developed cities face: suburbs cannot be adequately serviced by the periphery affordable to the poor). ● Generally higher densities than cities in industrialized countries. public transport, thereby forcing a Other factors relate more closely to rise in the use of automobiles or para- the real estate market. For example,

● Socioeconomic segregation, transit, which add to the air contami- in Prague, recently identified trends forcing long trips for the poor, nants and the congestion problems include the formation of large real who are usually isolated on the of the central city. The second prob- estate companies purchasing large urban fringe. lem is possibly more acute to the tracts of peripheral lands for residen- developing world: suburbs are tial and commercial megaprojects devouring valuable agricultural land. (i.e., hypermarkets and shopping Fast economic growth and urbaniza- The significance of this issue depends malls); the difficulty in redeveloping tion, and increasing suburbanization, on the locality. Egypt, for example, is urban lands due to contamination are driving rapid changes in cities mostly desert; only 3% to 4% of its (i.e., brownfields); competition across the developing world. Perhaps land is suitable for agricultural use. among local jurisdictions for land the most important characteristic dif- The cities are located almost entirely uses; and private pressures for ferentiating developed and develop- in this small quantity of agricultural change to public land-use plans (see, ing country suburbanization is that land, and consuming it at an alarm- for example, Garb 2000). In his oft- both the rich and the poor are found ing pace. Likewise, the cities of India, cited book on “edge cities” in the in the urban fringe of the latter, in Peru, China, and many other devel- United States, (Garreau 1991) indi- segregated swaths of housing. The oping countries are facing the same cated that the edge-city phe- poor often settle there as “squatters” loss of agricultural land. nomenon was already underway in or are relocated by government hous- places like Bangkok and Budapest, ing programs; the rich move there to with Mexico City, Santiago, and enjoy suburban amenities. In the Today, urban expansion in the devel- many other cities close behind. middle, typically, lies the middle class, oping world may well be accelerat- living in or closer to the inner cities. ing, not unlike the “sprawl” being seen in the industrialized world. In the developing world, while poten- Many transportation-related factors tially alleviating the heavy central-city Developing-country cities, like their feed into this process, such as: the focus of current trip flows, urban developed counterparts, have been construction of ring-roads and high- sprawl may well produce suburb-to- undergoing rapid urban expansion, speed radial highways; underpriced suburb travel patterns that burden many for several decades. The urban highway travel; congestion; and flat many cities’ existing transportation area of Santiago increased by more public transport fares (a vicious circle, systems even more heavily. The prob- than sixfold during the second half of since flat fares are critical to ensuring lem will be particularly acute for both the twentieth century, while in the affordable mobility for the peripheral the peripheral and central-city poor case of Mexico City, the urban area at poor, while also continuing to make without autos — a problem that will

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only be exacerbated by the users). In fact, it is clear that in many tionally larger than its “cause.” The unplanned nature and inadequate cities the ownership of autos by the World Bank (1996) shows that low- infrastructure of many poor settle- upper class is worsening many social income countries suffer some 80 ments, and the lack of finances to inequities. Auto infrastructure con- times more traffic fatalities per vehicle improve them. sumes space for other uses and push- than high-income countries (although es cities farther out, making nonauto the fatalities-per-capita figure is modes less convenient, less viable, approximately one-half), indicating a CONSEQUENCES: CHALLENGES TO less attractive, and less safe. Most high level of traffic risk, and poor SUSTAINING MOBILITY developing cities are growing at such quality of emergency health care. The growth in motor vehicle use a rapid pace that not only is new Motor vehicles are almost always across the developing world raises infrastructure not being built, the cur- involved in traffic fatalities; whether several troubling issues and begs the rent systems are deteriorating at an or not they are the “cause” is most question of whether current growth alarming pace. often difficult to establish in the rates are sustainable. It is clear that aggregate because of problems with many cities cannot currently build or reporting and data collection. Also even maintain the infrastructure nec- Congestion levels clearly affect the similar to the case of air pollution, it essary to support their growing levels fragile economies of the developing is difficult to understand the overall of motorization; their operational sys- world. The vast majority of the mid- “size” of the traffic-safety problem tem is simply overwhelmed. Equally dle and working classes in developing because of data problems. significant is the impact current cities must endure long commutes on growth rates have on the three pillars crowded public transportation. of sustainability — the economic, Motor-vehicle-related accidents and At issue is not the number of motor social, and environmental health — fatalities present a serious public vehicles, but rather the lack of institu- that societies need to flourish. health problem whose principal tional, engineering, and infrastructure impact is on lower-income pedestri- interventions, combined with a high ans and bicyclists. Airborne pollution degree of mixed and often conflicting The growth of private automobiles in and the loss of wetlands and species road users. For example, there is the developing countries has habitats attributable to changing land often a lack of driver training, public undoubted benefits for their users: use are on the rise, as well. education or sufficient enforcement Increased economic, educational, of traffic laws. Driver error is responsi- shopping, and recreational opportu- ble for the majority of accidents; and nities are now within their grasp. In short, mobility in developing cities penalties for offenses such as drunk Furthermore, for those who can is not achieving its purpose of driving are often low (see, for exam- afford them, private motor vehicles increasing accessibility. Current trans- ple, Oladiran and Pheko 1995). Even offer status and prestige: “The auto- portation means are not increasing in places with laws on the books, mobile is used to communicate mes- the majority of citizens’ access to social patterns often negate their sages to other people — makes the increased economic benefits, greater effects. In Kuala Lumpur, for example, owner visible, indicates socioeconom- social interactions, and higher quali- despite mandatory seat belt use laws, ic standing, indicates tastes” (Thynell ties of life. This section details and a small survey of taxi drivers found 2000). Some analysts suggest that assesses the consequences of deterio- that 60% did not use their seatbelts auto ownership actually plays an rating mobility; congestion; air and (Hauswald 1997). important socioeconomic role in mid- noise pollution; damage to the envi- dle-class formation (Vasconcellos ronment, and their effects on social 1997). Japanese commentators equity. There is a widespread lack of respect dubbed the 1960s the “Decade of for nonmotorized users (pedestrians the Three Cs,” to mark their compa- and cyclists), and these users bear an triots’ widespread purchase of the Safety undue accident burden. In Delhi, for three new indicators of middle-class example (see Table 4-5), cyclists, status: color televisions, air-condition- Traffic accidents are a serious health motorcyclists, and pedestrians were ing, and most importantly, cars. hazard in many developing-country all disproportionately represented in cities, where traffic fatalities are a 1994 traffic accident fatalities. The major cause of death among eco- danger to nonmotorized users in The increase in mobility and social nomically active individuals (Ross and Delhi also directly affects the use and status that auto owners enjoy, howev- Mwiraria 1992). safety of buses, since all bus trips start er, comes at a price for the majority and end as pedestrian (and some- of their fellow citizens who cannot times bicycle) trips (Mohan and afford cars; the use of cars often Table 4-4 shows fatality rates in a Tiwari 1999). Pedestrians in São Paulo impinges on the mobility/accessibility selection of developing-country envi- are also highly vulnerable; although of other system users (bus, other ronments. Traffic safety in the devel- they are involved in only 6% of acci- public transport, and nonmotorized oping world poses a problem propor-

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Table 4-4. Traffic fatalities in selected regions Traffic Fatalities/ Fatalities/ Year Fatalities 100,000 People 10,000 Vehicles Brazil 1995 27886 18.3 11.0 Bombay 1986 NA NA 11.6 Bogota 1996 1073 16.8 18.9 Mexico City 1993 2179 12.8 6.1 Santiago 1994 394 7.2 6.3 Bangalore 1995 678 16.1 10.4 Delhi 1993 1783 21.3 8.55 Durban 1996 637 29.7 16.0 Johannesburg 1991/92 524 33.3 NA Harare 1998 391 23.0 9.8 Sources: Vasconcellos (1999); Vasconcellos (1996); COMETRAVI (1999), vol. 1; Zegras and Litman (1997); Sachdeva (1998), p. 508; Chakravarty and Sachdeva (1998), pp. 60–61; Durban Metro (2001); Mbara (2000), pp. 10–11; Guruprasad (2000), p. 478; Granne et al. (2000), p. 906. Notes: For Mexico City, Delhi, and Santiago, the fatalities per vehicle includes all vehicles; for other cities not entirely clear in source.

dents, they represent 54% of all traf- Of course, without data on trip developing world is creating massive fic fatalities (Wright 2000). lengths or relevant data over time, it pressures for infrastructure expansion, is difficult to comment comparatively but developing-country cities often on congestion levels and/or their evo- find themselves unable to maintain Congestion lution in the cities of the developing existing infrastructure, much less able countries. It is clear, however, that to finance the new. The problem is in One of the immediate consequences while all vehicles suffer in congestion, part an institutional one. Poorly of rapid motorization is traffic con- public transport bears a dispropor- designed and inadequately funded gestion. Although data are rarely tionate burden, with average peak- public finance systems hamper the clear or comparable, downtown period bus speeds up to one-half as maintenance and construction of weekday traffic speeds in developing slow as those of automobiles. infrastructure across the developing cities are dismal. They reportedly Estimates from several Brazilian cities world. Further, infrastructure develop- average: offer evidence: Buses’ travel speeds ment must always compete with are 30% to 40% lower than autos in other public policy objectives such as peak congestion (see Table 4-6). the provision of health care, educa- 9 kilometers per hour or less in tion, and other public works. Even if Seoul and Shanghai. an urban transportation system gen- 10 kilometers per hour or less in Infrastructure decay and institu- erates sufficient revenues to sustain Bangkok, Manila, and Mexico. tional weakness. The rapid growth itself (i.e., through vehicle registration in motor vehicle fleets across the fees and dedicated fuel taxes), the 17 kilometers per hour or less in Kuala Lumpur and São Paulo. Table 4-5. Mode share and road accidents in Delhi, 1994 Partially as a result, average commute times are high and increasing. The Mode Share Fatalities Ratio average one-way commute in Manila Mode (%) (%) (fatalities/ is 120 minutes. In Jakarta it is 82 mode share) minutes. Indeed, of the 19 develop- Car/taxi 5 2 0.6 ing cities with journey-to-work times Bus 42 10 0.2 reported in the World Development Indicators, 12 have an average one- Motorized two-wheelers 12 27 2.3 way commute time of 45 minutes or Bicycle 5 14 2.8 longer (World Bank 2000). Pedestrian 32 42 1.3 Source: Mohan and Tiwari (1999).

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Table 4-6. Average, evening peak auto financing mechanisms are typically in and bus speeds in Brazilian cities place. Furthermore, planning and investment decision-making processes City Auto Bus are often unclear. Finally, the question remains: Will developing-country Belo Horizonte 23 16 cities ever be able to “build their way Brasilia 45 27 out” of the problem? Major road Campinas 24 17 expansions in several large Chinese cities have barely managed to keep Curitiba 22 19 pace with motorization: Guangzhou João Pessoa 26 18 has a new orbital expressway and Juiz de Fora 30 21 inner ring road; Beijing constructed two ring roads and has a third under Pôrto Alegre 29 20 construction; Shanghai’s road area Recife 24 14 grew by 42% in the first half of the 1990s; Shenzen has completed con- Rio de Janeiro 26 19 struction of 139 kilometers of high- São Paulo 16 11 ways — and yet in all of these cities, Source: Vasconcellos et al. (2000), p. 628, fig. 1. average peak-period traffic speeds remain below 20 kilometers per hour (Mohan and Tiwari 1999). money often leaks into other sectors, The costs of annual maintenance are is allocated to a higher level of gov- estimated to be a fraction of the cost ernment, is poorly managed, and/or of rehabilitating a badly maintained Local Air Pollution is used as a means of, for example, road that has deteriorated. Also, reg- income redistribution. Finally, the fail- ular maintenance generates signifi- Transportation air pollution problems ure to introduce real marginal cost cant benefits in the form of lower in developing-country cities generally pricing (or a rough proxy) creates vehicle operating costs and general follow the path taken by the industri- excess infrastructure demand and productivity gains. It is estimated that alized world, with problems reaching hampers “rational” planning. While on balance maintenance expenditures crisis point before being confronted. by no means unique to the develop- can generate returns in the range of The pollution problem in many cases ing world, these problems are 30% to 35% (World Bank 2001a). is “cruder,” as cities confront gross arguably more dire there, where However, the tendency to underfund levels of contamination due to leaded resources are more constrained and maintenance persists, with significant gasoline, or excessively smoky vehicles equity impacts are potentially larger. investments made in the 1960s and emitting high levels of particulates. 1970s crumbling through the 1990s. These problems are relatively “easily” At an aggregate level, roads in devel- addressed with technical fixes, such as Perhaps the greatest short-term oping countries are managed almost eliminating lead from gasoline and impact is on maintenance of existing without exception by local govern- adequately tuning and maintaining infrastructure. The state of road main- ments and national agencies suffering engines, then moving toward cleaner tenance in developing countries is from a large backlog of maintenance fuels such as lower-sulfur diesel. particularly poor. Analysts estimate projects. More so than their counter- However, as these “gross” problems that from 1964 to1984, US$45 billion parts in the developed world, these are addressed, more tenacious prob- worth of road infrastructure assets agencies are insulated from political lems often arise — those attributable were lost in 85 developing countries pressures for better maintenance, and to ongoing motorization, such as the because of inadequate maintenance suffer from low irregular revenue. ground-level ozone formation as seen (Gwilliam and Shalizi 1996). In the in Santiago, Chile. early 1990s, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development Beyond the need for maintenance (EBRD) estimated rehabilitating exist- comes the heavy pressure to satisfy Transportation often accounts for a ing roads and upgrading convention- projected future demand, with subse- majority share of criteria pollutants — al railways in Central and Eastern quent requirements placed on gov- although not all of these cities con- Europe would require US$44 billion ernment coffers. For example, to help front the same levels of pollution and (EBRD 1993). South Asia and Africa alleviate Bangkok’s notorious conges- thus the same degree of “problem” — have suffered disproportionate tion, 30 to 40 transport “megapro- despite the low motorization levels in neglect: South Asia in particular has jects” were in some stage of consider- most cities relative to the industrialized under 20% of paved roads in good ation, planning, or construction by world. For some cities in the earlier condition (See Table 4-7; disaggre- the mid-1990s — the estimated price stages of motorization (i.e., Beijing), gate data on the conditions in indi- tag for which was $35 billion! Again, the motor vehicle contribution vidual cities is not readily available). however, weak (if any) transportation- appears to be growing, as would be

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Table 4-7. Condition of main roads by region

Paved Unpaved Region Good Fair Poor Good Fair Poor Eastern and Southern Africa 42 32 26 42 30 28 Western Africa 52 23 25 20 36 44 East Asia and Pacific 20 59 21 41 34 25 South Asia 19 45 36 6 39 55 Europe, Middle East, and 41 35 24 30 46 24 North Africa LAC 44 32 24 24 43 33 Average 32 42 26 31 36 33 United States 31 57 12 — — — United Kingdom 85 12 3 — — — Source: World Bank (1988). — Indicates not applicable.

Table 4-8. Motor vehicle contribution of total air pollutants in selected developing-country cities

City Year CO HC NOx SO2 SPM Beijing 1989 39 75 46 NA NA 2000 84 NA 73 NA NA Bombay 1992 NA NA 52 5 24 Budapest 1987 81 75 57 12 NA Cochin, India 1993 70 95 77 NA NA Delhi 1987 90 85 59 13 37 Lagos, Nigeria 1988 91 20 62 27 69 Mexico City 1990 97 53 75 22 35 1996 99 33 77 21 26* Santiago 1993 95 69 85 14 11 1997 92 46† 71 15 86‡ São Paulo 1990 94 89 92 64 39 Sources: WRI (1996); West et al. (2000); CONAMA (1998); Fu and Yuan (2001). * PM10. † Does not include evaporative emissions from refueling. ‡ PM10, includes fugitive road dust. NA: Data not available

expected (see Table 4-8). The avail- profiles; low technological require- draconian measures as vehicle-use able evidence suggests that ments for new vehicles; poor mainte- restrictions and “no drive” days. Santiago’s relative transport contribu- nance practices for public and private tion may be improving, while Mexico fleets; institutional/political challenges City’s record appears mixed. to inspection and maintenance; vehi- Noise Pollution cle tampering; and a lack of public awareness of the scope of the prob- Transport is a major cause of this oft- In many cases, the problem derives lem. In the places with some of the neglected urban policy problem for from particularities of developing- worst chronic pollution, important which the data are scarce. In country vehicle fleets: long-lasting strides have been made and pollution Santiago, research in the late 1980s vehicles with deteriorated emissions has often been the impetus for such indicated that 80% of the population

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living or working along the city’s patterns similar to what we have seen cycling and walking. In addition, the principal transportation arteries suf- in the developed world. They have poor disproportionately suffer from fered some risk of hearing loss, and not yet been widely studied or docu- the “barrier effect” of being isolated nearly 70% of residential or mixed- mented, however, and therefore anal- by major highway construction, and residential land is, according to inter- ysis and comparison are difficult. from outright dislocation due to national standards, considered inade- Nonetheless, concern is on the increased land values and the confis- quate for these uses due to noise lev- increase. For example, in Panama cation of land for transportation pro- els (Intendencia 1989). On Lima’s City, local and international NGOs jects. In addition, transportation pro- principal avenues, measurements have blamed several environmental jects are a major public expenditure. taken by the municipality indicated impacts — on areas of important bio- In economies where many basic noise levels almost two times higher diversity and on coastal water pollu- needs such as water, sanitation, and than recommended norms. Some tion levels — on a toll highway built education are not met, it is important intersections recorded levels high 40 meters off the coast and related to recognize that there is an opportu- enough to pose a serious risk of per- real estate development projects nity cost to the funds invested in manent hearing damage (Iturregui (Wing and Saladin 2000). Road-build- transportation projects. 1996). In the Slovak Republic, over ing and associated developments in 7% of the urban population suffers the Andean foothills of suburban exposure to road transport noise lev- Santiago have been linked to Often, transportation policy in devel- els considered dangerous for human increased incidences of flash flooding, oping countries is based on the idea health (Slovak Republic 2001). and may be inducing microclimatic that the best way to help the poor is changes due to loss of vegetation to promote economic growth. Thus, (Romero et al. 1995). investments in growth-inducing Traffic noise is a particularly acute transportation projects are justified as problem in the warmer cities of the aiding the poor. Though the benefits developing world, where the climate Developing cities’ consumption of of general economic growth do often encourages open architecture and petroleum and subsequent contribu- “trickle down” to the poor, it is abun- open windows in dense residential tion to global climate change is cur- dantly clear that the poor also suffer neighborhoods. The problem is com- rently minor, but growing. Although disproportionately from transporta- pounded by the abundance of aging, industrialized countries currently tion strategies that focus on motor- large vehicles such as diesel buses, account for 75% of transportation ization as their primary goal. and a plethora of small, shrill vehicles, energy use and greenhouse gas such as mopeds, small-engine motor- emissions, estimates suggest that the cycles, stick-shift automobiles with developing countries could generate Women. Women in the developing inadequate mufflers, and hybrid vehi- the majority of transportation-related world face additional hurdles to full cles like Bangkok’s ubiquitous tuk- emissions by 2025 (IPCC 1996). and free mobility because of the gen- tuks. Along major thoroughfares in Nonetheless, their emissions in per der-based division of roles and Ho Chi Minh City, average noise lev- capita terms will likely remain lower responsibility in the family and the els exceed the standard by 26% to than those of the industrialized community. Men are the traditional 40% (Nguyen Duc 1996). countries. breadwinners who typically make one round trip to and from work per day, at peak hours of service. Women, on Transport noise may actually increase Social Equity the other hand, to fulfill a variety of urban decentralization trends because tasks and responsibilities, typically of the reduced quality of life in inner The poor. Throughout the develop- make multiple trips throughout the cities. A major point is that public ing world the poor are faced with dis- day, paying several different single- transport is often the culprit — buses appointing choices concerning mobil- trip fares, waiting through non-peak are noisy — which in itself is often an ity. Because they cannot afford cars, service, and carrying heavy physical important policy dilemma. they are increasingly unable to gain loads. Personal safety and comfort are full access to the changing spatial critical factors that deter women from opportunities in their societies. This using public transportation. Women Other Environmental Impacts lack of mobility has a disproportion- are vulnerable to sexual harassment, ate and regressive effect. The poor attack, and abuse while traveling in The diverse range of urban transport’s are often located at the periphery of the public transportation system. deleterious effects on the environ- the city, in informal settlements that Finally, there is the issue of income: ment —such as induced consumption are far from public transportation and One study found that almost 30% of of open space, the disruption of deli- at a substantial distance from the women’s incomes each month was cate ecosystems by highway con- central city. They have to endure long spent on transportation (Shrestova struction, runoff from pavement, commutes in inadequate public trans- and Barve, 1999). vehicle disposal, fuel leakage, etc. — port, high levels of urban air pollu- all exist in the developing world in tion, and unsafe conditions for

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Trade in Used Vehicles: Opportunities and Dilemmas cities are meager, and there is no consensus on the methods of analy- Often vehicles rendered obsolete get eliminated from a country or region, without sis. Nonetheless, most estimates sug- necessarily leaving the world’s roads. After all, motor vehicles are durable goods that gest that transportation systems can can, with great resourcefulness on the part of their owners, sometimes last up to 30 have external costs in the range of years or more. Since there seems almost always to be a demand for cheap vehicles, 5% to 7% of Gross Regional Product used vehicles that have lost their usefulness to one owner can bring value to another. (GRP; see Table 4-9; Willoughby, p.3, In recent years, the reduction of barriers to global trade has opened up a large mar- 2000a), comparable to results in the ket for used vehicles, taking those vehicles across borders to where demand is high. industrialized world. For the original owner, typically in an industrialized country, the trade in used vehicles offers financial reward for a good that has otherwise lost its value. For the buyer, the used vehicle offers motorized mobility, at a relatively cheap price. Other recent World Bank estimates Despite the apparent market efficiency behind the trade in used vehicles, this issue suggest that the total economic costs raises certain questions and dilemmas. For example, might the benefit of a used of air pollution alone represent up to vehicle’s low up-front cost be offset by the higher life-cycle costs associated with 10% of GRP in polluted cities such as operating and maintaining an older vehicle? Many of the worst-polluting vehicles in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta. developing cities are old, secondhand vehicles “passed down” from developed For six developing country cities with nations after they were no longer desirable, or were unable to pass US or European a total population of over 50 million emissions tests. Is the trade in used vehicles increasing air pollution and energy con- (Mumbai, Shanghai, Manila, Bangkok, sumption (and greenhouse gas emissions) in recipient countries? Is the trade in used Krakow, and Santiago), the costs of vehicles bringing unsafe, inadequate or inappropriate motor vehicles to recipient particulates and other vehicle emis- countries? Is the trade in used vehicles accelerating motorization rates in recipient sions are estimated as equivalent to countries, thus exacerbating congestion, pollution, and public expenditures for road 60% of the import cost of gasoline, infrastructure in recipient countries? and over 200% of the import cost of diesel (World Bank 2001). These are challenging questions, with no clear answers at present.

Source: Zegras (1998). The estimates in Table 4-9 help shed light on the relative magnitude of the various problems posed by trans- Another study of rural women who cultural taboo about women riding portation externalities in developing- commute into Calcutta for employ- bicycles has been institutionalized in country cities. In general terms, con- ment found that “54% of the respon- a law that bans women from riding gestion, air pollution, and accidents dents spend more than twelve hours in public places (Peters, 1998). The seem to impose roughly equal bur- outside their homes every day. Only unfortunate result is that in many dens, although firm conclusions are 5% stay away for less than eight places where bicycles would help difficult to draw. Again, this is due to hours. Time is wasted waiting to solve women’s transportation needs, the fact that the estimates are often change from one mode of transporta- they are left to walk or rely on public based on uncertain data and unclear tion to another; on average 55 min- transport to be able to carry out their methodologies (i.e., are pollution cost utes per day. In addition, women walk daily tasks. estimates based on willingness-to- for part of their journey, on average pay, human capital costs, how value for 90 minutes, but in some cases of life is calculated, etc.), and do not 150-180 minutes” (Mukherjee, 1999). There is a significant lack of data on all cover the same cost categories. women’s mobility throughout the developing world, but what is clear is If a family is able to afford a car, usu- that women have different needs and For Asian cities, one recent estimate ally the man drives it to work. The requirements that have not tradition- showed that air pollution costs far same holds true for bicycles. A study ally been met by transportation plan- dominate congestion costs (Shah in Havana, Cuba, where bicycles ners. Fulfilling those needs is critical 2001), although again details on the were the most popular mode of to the social and economic equity of data and methodologies underlying transport, found that women developing cities. these estimates are unavailable. accounted for only 13% of all bicycle riders (Peters, 1998). There are also socio-cultural deterrents that prevent Assessing the Impacts Accurate external cost estimates women from riding bicycles. Bicycle could, in theory, help better under- riding is considered unsafe and Despite the individual and social ben- stand transportation improvement “unladylike.” In many countries in efits of modern transportation sys- priorities, by including them in eco- Africa, if a woman rides a bicycle she tems, it is widely recognized that nomic analyses and subsequent pro- is considered “loose” or overly inde- their negative impacts imply real eco- ject selection based on internal rates pendent (Peters, 1998). In Iran, the nomic costs. The data on developing of return. An equally significant step

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Mobility as a Force for Economic Development in Developing Countries

Transport infrastructure is an important factor in regional and national economic development. The availability and efficiency of the available transport infrastructure influences economic development in at least three different ways.

First, both the size of an urban area and the efficiency of urban economic activity depend on the quality of the transport infrastructure. Higher speeds and reduced travel times lower production costs and raise productivity by reducing fuel, labor, and land costs. Improved accessibility makes more land available for building and reduces the cost of land. Reduction in travel delays leads to higher labor productivity. There is significant evidence linking the quality of transport infrastructure to firms’ location decisions. Studies of Seoul and Bogotá have found that city centers with good infrastructure facilities promote the growth of new industrial enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized firms (Lee, 1985; Lee, 1989). Cities with inadequate transport infrastructure are unable to provide this impetus, thus constraining industrial and economic growth. Severe limitations imposed by a highway and urban street system that never anticipated today’s rapid increase in number of motor vehicles have left China with one of the world’s most severe infrastructure shortfalls. This problem is widely recognized by the government in China as a threat to continued economic growth. In China’s Pearl River Delta, new industrial development is increasingly located in low-density settings in the province of Guangdong, away from the congested cities of Guangzhou and Hong Kong, to ensure high mobility. In Thailand, a study of Bangkok has shown that poor transport infrastructure constrains the growth of small firms in the city, and there is evidence that that recent trends to locate industrial establishments on Thailand’s eastern shore are in response to congestion problems in Bangkok. The adverse impact of the lack of adequate transport infrastructure is most evident in places such as the low-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa, where producers’ need to provide private transport infrastructure damages their competitive edge.

Second, an efficient and safe transport infrastructure facilitates labor market participation and is a necessary component to an efficient labor market. A study of city center residents in Mexico City has found that advantageous location, which implies better transport and accessibility, contributes significantly to the success of these residents in the formal and informal labor sectors (Eckstein, 1990). Studies by Rémy Prud’homme are in the course of showing that major cities with better access systems expand the potential labor market for given locations, thereby improving city productivity. Indeed, there are several examples of industrial and residential development that have been systematically located to take advantage of access provided by new transportation facilities. In Curitiba, Brazil, industrial centers accessible by high-speed bus access corridors were systematically located at the outskirts of the city. In São Paolo, Brazil the substantial new public housing sites were developed in the outskirts of São Paulo once the metro system made them accessible to the city center. The development of new metropolitan centers around Chinese cities, such as Nanjing are also examples of this phenomenon.

Third, direct expenditure on construction and maintenance of transport infrastructure is an important source of employment for many regions. In particular, government spending on infrastructure is often used as an important employment-generating policy tool to provide economic stimulus during recessions. Labor-based approaches to transport projects are also an effective instrument for economic growth in developing countries with abundant labor forces. Many governments in developing countries have pursued domestic production of automobiles as a way to promote their local manufacturing industries. It is widely known, of course, that the automotive industry stimulates a great deal of “upstream” industrial development because of its multisectoral requirements for many components — electronics, sheet metal, foundry work, plastics, rubber, glass, textiles, and so forth. The eventual result is new products in all these sectors, which generate other markets and more employment.

There has long been a debate as to whether infrastructure precedes development or vice versa. This debate is not very productive for our purposes, since development and transport infrastructure clearly depend on each other and inch along, each supported by the other. As a result, there is a strong association between the stock of transport infrastructure and national level of income; countries with higher GDP per capita tend to have more paved roads. Furthermore, it is noticeable that the share of transport sector in overall infrastructure investment increases with income levels. The World Bank reports that a 1% increase in per capita GDP means a 0.8% increase in paved roads.

In all, there is evidence that, as a public investment, transport infrastructure yields a high rate of return. For example, the estimated rates of return of investment in transport infrastructure are 77% in Taiwan and 51% in Korea (Uchimura and Gao 1993). Another study has also estimated the returns on transport investment in developing countries to be as high as 95% (Canning and Fay, 1993). The high rates of return are not entirely unexpected, considering that many of these projects are in regions where existing networks are limited. These figures may have been overestimated, due to other variables that affect output growth and infrastructure investment but are not included in the studies. The average economic rates of return on transport projects supported by the World Bank are reported to be lower at about 18% (1974–1982) and 21% (1983–1992) (World Bank 1994). Even accounting for inaccuracies, however, these figures are still higher than other types of basic infrastructure. In this context, it is important to note that adequate transport infrastructure is necessary but not sufficient to facilitate economic growth. Economic development depends also on other favorable economic conditions and appropriate government policies. Transport infrastructure can contribute significantly to economic development only when it provides services that respond to effective demand.

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Table 4-9. Road transport externality estimates for developing-country cities (as % of GRP)

Land Accidents and Net Air Road City Year Parking Congestion Insurance Noise Pollution Subtotal Revenues Net Mexico 1993 0.1 2.6 2.3 0.6 5.6 5.6 City São Paulo 1990 2.4 1.1 1.6–3.2 5.1-6.7 5.1–6.7 Buenos 1995 3.4 0.5–2 1.0 5.6–7.1 1.0 4.6–6.1 Aires Bangkok 1995 1.0–6.0 2.3 2.6 5.9–10.9 5.9–10.9 Santiago 1994 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.2 2.6 8.3 1.64 6.7 Dakar 1996 3.4 0.2–4.1 5.1 8.7–12.6 8.7–12.6.6 Source: Willoughby (2000a), p. 5.

would be for transportation planners dressed. Loosely managed, some- manage, and finance urban growth to expand their definitions of costs, times completely unregulated, para- and transport. Government agencies and try to put an appropriate value transit operators have moved swiftly need to be able to perform such on the costs of such burdens as to fill their cities’ transportation basic and necessary steps as regulat- pedestrian safety, noise pollution, and needs; but as private entrepreneurs, ing their public transport concession- environmental and community dis- they respond only to the most aires; collecting and analyzing the ruption. demanding market pressures instead meaningful traffic data needed to of their society’s needs as a whole, understand their city’s problems and which does not always produce an plan appropriately; and creating the THE CURRENT POLICY AND equitable transit solution (see kinds of networks and urban struc- STRATEGY ENVIRONMENT Vasconcellos 2000). Nonetheless, tures that will enhance accessibility Current Conditions and Needs some developing cities have achieved and improve mobility for all of their modest success in meeting their citi- citizens. The developing world is meeting zens’ transportation needs, and in a mixed success as it struggles to con- few notable cities, most notably front transportation problems. In the Hong Kong and Singapore, trans- Despite the daunting nature of the absence of central, long-range plan- portation policies have worked in challenges and the current lack of ning, haphazard or uncoordinated concert with economic development funds for large-scale infrastructure growth is common. Many state agen- programs to drive substantial gains in investments, there are reasons for cies are unable to monitor, let alone economic growth, rising incomes, optimism. Some countries, most manage or improve, their con- and social equity. notably China, have strong central stituents’ transportation needs. and local governments that can Indeed, a frequent hurdle throughout streamline the planning and execu- Eastern European and former Soviet The readily available, affordable solution of new transportation solutions. nations is confusion about which tions include small, yet significant, The cost of labor is cheap compared government agency is responsible for steps such as vigorous enforcement to capital costs, which can result in transportation, and in which regions. of the rules of the road, increased use some useful solutions, e.g., cities can Poorly funded municipal agencies of signals, safer sidewalks and bike deploy more police for traffic control. may be expected to maintain roads paths, and rational regulation of park- Also, there are often fewer regulatory previously built by a national authori- ing. A more significant hurdle is man- and legal barriers to development ty. All of the former Communist aging the private operators who now and innovation. The freedom that less nations are suffering from severe cut- dominate public transportation in litigious societies provide, such as the backs in their subsidies of public many developing cities. Infrastructure ability to test new technologies in transport. maintenance also looms large. Finally, cars and buses without the threat of rationally planning and deploying lawsuits, must, however, be balanced new infrastructure, roads, and in against a frequent lack of detailed The results of this vacuum of govern- some cases rail, will prove critical in environmental reviews and public ment authority are that motorization many circumstances. input to the process. Moreover, in the and congestion are mounting, public best of cases there is widespread pub- transport service is deteriorating, and lic acknowledgment of the issue, and already precarious pedestrian and Perhaps the greatest challenge is to a corresponding willingness to be cyclist conditions remain unad- strengthen the institutions that plan,

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more bold and innovative in seeking urban level, since revenue sources overarching vision for institutional solutions. and expenditures — which often reform, loose earmarking subject to involve significant transfers among siphoning, and the failure to imple- levels of government — are rarely ment marginal cost pricing resulted Let’s examine the record. clear. Isolating costs imposed by and in widespread failures (Heggie and charges paid for by urban infrastruc- Vickers, 1998). Some signs of a ture users is also difficult, since subur- renewal in the use of road funds spe- Infrastructure Maintenance and ban commuters and out-of-town visi- cific to the urban sector exist. History Expansion tors, particularly freight trucks, are suggests that their success will hinge heavy users of a city’s roads. By at upon transparent institutional over- Key questions for the developing least one account the road transport sight, detailed management of the world include in which existing infras- sector in Buenos Aires, in general, accounting procedures, and vigorous tructure should countries invest pre- pays costs specific to road use that prosecution of inappropriate or cor- cious maintenance resources; and in more than cover road infrastructure rupt transfers of funds. which types of infrastructure should and maintenance costs. There are, they invest, and where should they however, cross subsidies from auto- build it? Yet, few if any infrastructure mobiles to heavy freight trucks and International financial institutions play finance mechanisms exist, and they among users of different fuel types an important role in developing are weak and poorly structured. Even (i.e., subsidies to CNG vehicles) transportation infrastructure and in ignoring the issue of externalities dis- (Libonatti et al., 1996). Similarly, in leveraging policy reforms in the cussed in the previous section, it is Santiago in 1994, road users paid developing world. The World Bank rarely clear whether or not users are $220 million more in related road- wields perhaps the most influence of paying more or less of “their own user fees than direct government any institution. A review of Bank lend- way” for infrastructure provision and road expenditures (Zegras and ing from 1983 to 1993 (IIEC 1996) maintenance in urban areas. This Litman, 1997). It can be argued that showed that most of its loans were problem is not unique to the devel- part of these resources went to directed at intercity transportation oping world per se, but is perhaps financing the city’s metro construc- infrastructure, particularly roadways. compounded there because of the tion during this period, although During the same decade, the Bank lack of money and institutional exper- even considering this expenditure lent roughly $2.5 trillion to the urban tise, more potential inequities, and leaves a surplus. If this is indeed the transport sector across the globe; more possibilities for corruption (see case, then road revenues in Santiago 60% of this went to road building or Gwilliam and Shalizi 1996). (Zegras and Gakenheimer 2000): maintenance, 17% to bus and rail systems, 10% to traffic management, and 14% to technical assistance. The ● Are implicitly used for income A lack of money constrains most local major share of nonroad lending was redistribution. efforts to build new roads and bridges. in Latin America. Important funding Few local governments can float bond was dedicated to urban ring road ● Serve as a proxy for transport issues or engage in other means of external costs. construction in, for example, capital formation, and private investors Budapest, Hungary, parts of Asia (i.e., are likely to be hesitant in the face of ● And/or show a general under- China), and in Latin America. The government instability. As a result, funding of investments in road Bank also played an important role in planners are likely to shoot for ambi- maintenance and new con- financing busway development — for tious large-scale projects in the hope of struction. example, it made a series of loans to finding some external lender to sup- Brazil during the 1970s. port the project — however dim that prospect may be. This tendency, while Irrespective of the situation of trans- entirely understandable, is disruptive port sector “accounts,” most indica- For urban areas, a major problem for developing nations that should be tions are that the sector is dominated relates to financing new local infras- aiming for fiscal responsibility as a by tendencies for infrastructure tructure development to support the principal goal. Grandiose, if fiscally expansion at the cost of mainte- travel demands brought about by untenable, projects are most preva- nance. One tool to help deal with the urban expansion. Again, institutional lent in the currently or formerly situation is the creation of road-sector barriers often crop up. In Mexico planned economies, where the lack of funds. A wave of “first-generation City, a major challenge to adequate fiscal discipline and budgeting experi- funds” designed to deal with failed highway provision lies in the need for ence often reduces transportation budgetary systems was established in coordination between city, state, and planning to a wish list. the 1970s and 1980s under periods national institutions and the often of fiscal stress in several developing vague allocation of responsibility countries. These funds centered on among them. In many cities, land Transport sector “accounting” is ensuring that maintenance actually developers are responsible for devel- notoriously difficult, particularly at the occurred. However, the lack of an oping all local infrastructure — which

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Urban Road Funds tructure projects under development or operation in developing Asia To date, most road funds have been for inter-urban road networks that carry the (including eight in Bangkok) and bulk of national traffic. Urban funds are variants put forth by some policymakers as a another 20, at least, in Latin America way to assume financial control of the high costs of building urban roads. Current (including 14 in Buenos Aires) (see examples include: Menckhoff and Zegras 1999). Kyrgyzstan: The capital city Bishkek of this small central Asian country is facing a maintenance crisis. The recently established National Road Fund is permitted by law to allocate up to 10% of its funds to urban areas, but in practice Concession projects usually focus on it allocates much less because the needs of the national network are perceived roadways, although Buenos Aires as more pressing. The city government receives some transfers from the central embarked on an aggressive privatiza- government, but almost all of it is earmarked for health and education services. tion of its subway and suburban rail It also has limited revenue-raising authority. As such, the city has resorted to ad system as well. Through its conces- hoc lotteries and festivals to fund road finance. A working group of city and sions program, Buenos Aires upgrad- central government is working on ways to increase central road fund revenues ed 840 kilometers of subway and so that urban areas get a higher share. The consultative process is an essential suburban railways, as part of projects component of road fund management. Urban road finance is thus part of the costing some $1.4 billion. The conces- wider national system. sions encountered some political opposition and recent challenges to trans- Honduras: The city of San Pedro Sula set up a road fund in 1996 under a parency in their renegotiations, but municipal decree. The nine voting members on the board consist of represen- they also coincided with an increase in tatives from the business community, the engineering profession, organized public transport ridership — which labor, the road transport industry, and even the press. The revenue stream actually exceeded projections in most includes local improvement taxes, vehicle registration fees, traffic fines, parking cases. The subway no longer requires charges, and other income channeled through the municipal budget, totaling operating subsidies. The city’s conces- about US$2 million per year. Maintenance is the road fund’s priority, although sion program also leveraged over $1 it can finance other road expenditures. It is subject to an annual audit. Here, billion in private-sector investments to urban finance is quite detached from the national system. upgrade and expand over 300 kilometers of motorways. Several Brazilian South Africa: The national system for urban road support in South Africa cities followed Buenos Aires into the shows that although urban costs are higher, user charges cannot always be dif- private capital markets to finance their ferentiated according to location, as this is costly to implement. Urban roads infrastructure. The city of São Paulo’s are financed through local government rates and grants from a national Urban attempts at concessioning 240 kilome- Transport Fund administered by a subcommittee of the South African Roads ters of exclusive bus corridors were Board. Although the original plan was to support the Fund in part through thwarted by lack of financing available congestion pricing, as with many first-generation road funds, this was never to the private-sector concessionaires, introduced. Instead, the Fund receives money from the national road fund and although the State was able to con- a central government grant. The long-term aim is to devolve the fund to the cession the upgrade and completion provincial level, as in the Honduras example, but this has not been possible in of a 33-kilometer trolleybus line the short run. (Rebelo 1997). In Rio de Janeiro, the

Source: World Bank (2001), Heggie and Vickers (1998). 41-kilometer Metro was “conces- sioned” to the private sector in 1997, with the suburban rail line following soon after in 1998 (Rebelo 1999). can lead to several problems if they construction and/or operational do not coordinate their efforts. expenses, usually for a fixed period of Furthermore, development of region- time, to an entity outside the public Ultimately, incorporating concessions al-level infrastructure to connect new sector (often a for-profit private sec- successfully requires several condi- developments to the rest of the tor entity) — in the development of tions: economic stability; a clear urban area can prove problematic to new infrastructure and the rehabilita- urban transport policy and overall finance, although in a limited number tion/upgradation of existing infras- strategy; a reliable and competent of cases, real estate developers have tructure, is on the rise. A noteworthy government; proper institutional, been charged impact fees to finance early entry into this arena was legal, and regulatory frameworks; such roadways. Bangkok, which turned to the private and a strong, effective, accountable sector to fund a series of proposed regulatory body with enforcement megaprojects beginning in the mid- capability. The key is to prevent The private sector to the res- 1980s, with limited success to date. urban transport investment decisions cue? The role of infrastructure con- At the end of the 1990s, private-sec- from falling to market forces; other- cessions — broadly defined as grant- tor concessions were involved in an wise coherent urban transport pro- ing rights to levy user fees to cover estimated 15 urban transport infras-

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grams are unlikely (Menckhoff and 1973 project in Tunis and a 1980 Mexico City’s Zegras 1999). project in Porto Alegre, Brazil, there Roadways: Chasing was a 13-year hiatus at the Bank in Urban Expansion? which no metro projects were under- During the last 20 years, the pro- What future for the busway and taken. More recently, since the early vision of highway infrastructure urban rail? Compared to its invest- 1990s, the World Bank has expressed has struggled to keep pace with ment in urban roads and railways, the a renewed interest in metros as Mexico City’s massive population private sector expresses little interest in potential development projects expansion. During the early to busways, yet they are among the most (Mitric 1997). The Bank’s current mid-1970s, major accomplish- cost-effective means of improving consultation draft (World Bank ments included the construction urban mobility. The great benefit of 2001a) for a new urban transport of the “Circuito Interior” (first dedicated busways is their ability to policy gives metros considerable ring road) as well as several feed- move large numbers of passengers — attention and presents an encourag- er roads toward the west. An typically up to 25,000 passengers per ing picture of the experience of new important development was the hour per direction — at relatively low metros. implementation of the ejes viales cost, typically $1 to $3 million per in 1979–80, which created a sys- kilometer, 50 to 100 times cheaper tem of high-capacity boulevards than subways. Despite such a com- Many developing-country cities will through downtown. The early pelling economic case, the use of continue to pursue construction of 1990s saw the completion of the busways remains limited. One reason metros, despite their high costs. As Pereferico, the Federal District’s is that busways lack the technological cities’ wealth increases, the cost of beltway. Other modernization luster of subways, which often gain the technology becomes more acces- projects focused on introducing favor among politicians and the gen- sible and the economic benefit of grade separations to improve traf- eral public looking for a modern travel-time savings (a major justifica- fic flow on key routes. Recent high-tech solution. Another reason is tion for metro construction) grows — construction includes a new toll that busways must overcome several and so too demand for metros may highway in the west/northwest practical engineering challenges, such well increase. Plans exist to expand (La Venta-Lechería), highway as the need to integrate with auto- Santiago’s metro, as well as those in expansion in the north mobile traffic, avoid road conflicts, several Brazilian and Indian cities. The (Cuautitlán-Tlalnepantla), and and protect passengers coming and private sector has contributed to expansions and new construc- going from stops. metro system development in tion in the east. As of 1995, the Bangkok, though the financial viabili- entire northern half of the third ty of the investment remains to be ring was completed (as a toll Latin America is a pioneer in dedicat- seen. Kuala Lumpur and Manila have highway), with the southern half ed busway deployment, led by Brazil also garnered private-sector support, under construction. In general and the storied example of Curitiba although the government may actual- terms, future highway construc- (see feature box). Today, busways ly be assuming most of the financial tion is most restricted in the exist in Quito (Ecuador), Bogotá (see risk. There are signs that the private north and northwest, due to feature box), Lima, Santiago, and the sector may also play a growing role in topography. Source: COMETRAVI Brazilian cities of Recife, Porto Alegre, upgrading and operating existing sys- (1999), SETRAVI (1999). Goiania, São Paulo, and Belo tems, as in Buenos Aires and Rio de Horizonte. Beyond being relatively Janeiro. In the case of suburban rail cheap, busways can be deployed systems, most emphasis will be aimed at enhancing overall service quickly, which makes them popular in placed on maintaining and upgrading quality (wait time, reliability, travel cities enduring difficult political and existing systems. time, safety, etc.); finding and main- financial conditions. taining the appropriate role for “paratransit” operators and vehicles; imple- Public transport service buses. menting effective mechanisms to tar- Regarding metros, the international Road-based public transport is the get subsidies to relevant users; and development community has only principal travel mode for most devel- improving the overall status and pub- recently come to support their new oping-country urban residents, which lic perception of the system. Ensuring construction as a way to increase makes enhancing the quality of ser- reliably competitive travel times mobility. International agencies long vice provided the key challenge. through bus priority in infrastructure held the view that metros were far Cities understand that, on one hand, (i.e., bus lanes, busways) is vital, and too expensive to be reasonable solu- service must remain affordable to the examples of implementation indicate tions for urban transportation prob- poorest users; on the other hand, ser- good results. lems in developing cities. For exam- vice quality must be high enough in ple, the World Bank’s transportation order to maintain public transporta- policy papers of 1976, 1986, and tion as a viable option for those with As we saw earlier, a growing private- 1996 scarcely mention metros. After a a choice. Efforts at improvement have sector role is the general, though by

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no means exclusive, trend in road- Privatization: Concessions of Transport Infrastructure based public transport. The greatest in Bangkok obstacles to overcome include: Since the mid-1980s, the Thai National Economic and Social Plans have relied heavily on the private sector for transport infrastructure development. The government is ● Ensuring competitive route attempting to solve Bangkok’s world-renowned traffic congestion through conces- bidding. sions for the construction and operation of several expressways and mass transit systems. So far, three expressways and one mass rail transit line are complete, and one ● Service and fare integration. subway system is expected to open in 2002. Over the past decade, concessions have been able to attract private-sector funds of about US$3 billion from both foreign and ● Adequate enforcement of ser- local sources to finance transport infrastructure in the city. If all projects under con- vice conditions (frequencies, struction are completed, the city will have a rail transit network of 45 kilometers and fares, etc.). an expressway system of 355 kilometers .

● “Formalization” of companies. Despite the impressive amount of capital assembled and construction completed, all of Bangkok’s megaprojects faced major problems. All suffered substantial delays, ● Reducing “incumbents’ from problems with some basic designs to contractual and legal conflicts between advantage.” the government and private concessionaires. In fact, several of the originally planned projects were scrapped or suspended.

Some progress has been made. The most controversial project was the Second Stage Expressway. In 1993, serious conflicts erupted over the appropriate toll level and revenue sharing between the Thai government and Kumagai Gumi, a Japanese construction contractor. The con- The current wave of formal private tractor simply refused to open the expressway to the public after its completion. provision of public transportation ser- Later, the Thai government forced the opening of the road, and convinced Kumagai vices finds its roots largely in the early Gumi to sell their stake to local investors. to mid-1970s. One of the first countries to embark on this path was Some of the other megaprojects have been abandoned or converted into publicly Chile, as part of general neo-liberal owned and operated enterprises. The ambitious Hopewell Project, which was to economic reforms brought on by the build a US$3.1 billion multilevel structure for an expressway and a rail transit system, military regime. After 1975, the gov- was abandoned. The viability of the project was closely related to the associated ernment completely liberalized the property development, and the bust of the local real estate market and the financial bus systems in the nation’s cities, crisis of 1997 were mortal blows. As of March 2001, the Thai government and allowing virtually anyone with a vehi- Hopewell Holdings of Hong Kong, the project contractor, continued to wrangle over cle to operate a bus route. The policy compensation for losses on the project. On the other hand, the new subway system, did significantly expand the coverage the concession for which was first awarded to SNC-Lavalin of Canada in the late and frequency of road-based public 1980s, is now under the control of a new public agency, and scheduled to open in transport services, but by the late 2002. SNC-Lavalin backed out when it could not secure financing commitments 1980s it also manifested a darker from its equipment suppliers.

side: excess supply and dangerous, Several institutional weaknesses must share the blame for Bangkok’s disputes with competitive driving conditions; pollu- its concessionaires. The lack of well-established legal, regulatory, and investment tion and congestion; as well as frameworks hampered the projects, as did the absence of an effective dispute reso- increasing bus fares due to lution mechanism to resolve contractual difficulties. Jousting between government widespread collusion among opera- agencies competing for control of the concessions confused matters, and above all, tors (see, for example, Correa 1991, the absence of a comprehensive transport plan and policy — managed by one Thomson 1993). In the early 1990s, a agency — doomed many of Bangkok’s dreams for new development. new democratic regime came into power and began to address some of Source: Menckhoff and Zegras (1999). these excesses of deregulation. In Santiago the first step was outright state purchase of the oldest vehicles on the streets — 2,600 buses at a of US$500 million in vehicle stock; Many cities remain dependent on cost of US$14 million to the govern- service quality improved (uniform sig- unregulated private markets for their ment. Later, the government nage, more comfortable vehicles, transport. Santiago illustrates the launched a transparent and apparent- etc.); vehicle emission characteristics problems — political, institutional, ly effective route-bidding process that improved (more than half the fleet and technical — produced by com- produced remarkable results: The size complies with EPA-91or 94 standard); pletely deregulating the public trans- of the bus fleet was reduced from bus companies were modernized; port market as well as the challenges 13,500 to 9,000, and average age and, importantly, bus fares were sta- to and potential for overcoming reduced from 14 years to 4 years, bilized (Dourthé et al. 2000) with no these problems. Other cities, particu- implying a private-sector investment direct subsidies to the companies. larly in Brazil, offer a different model

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The Shifting Tides of Policy: The Vehicle Size and end, the critical question is whether Paratransit Debates public transport can be a viable commercial business in the face of It is useful to note the historical shifts among transportation analysts for and against increasing use of private automobiles, small transit vehicles offering paratransit service. In the 1970s, some analysts con- and the concurrent changes in land cluded that small vehicles were the most effective form of transit. A.A. Walters of The use and real estate development that World Bank was the most prominent and vigorous advocate of this view. More gen- rarely favor public transportation. erally, proponents argue that paratransit services, usually served by small vehicles, often serve areas not covered by formal, speedy, flexible, and affordable service. Small vehicles can provide accessibility to the areas where larger vehicles would be Managing the private operators. unprofitable or physically impossible, and they provide mobility for those in outlying Managing competitive bids and city- neighborhoods who cannot afford private cars. In effect, paratransit sustains collec- wide service by private bus compa- tive mobility for the poor who are left behind in the motorization process. Restricting nies is a difficult exercise for public paratransit would reduce the mobility of the poor while enhancing automobility of authorities. The terms of competition the middle-class and the rich. among bidders are problematic But paratransit has several external costs. The additional small vehicles on the street because the terms of service are all at add to congestion. Many of the private transport vehicles are the biggest contribu- fixed levels — the fare, the seat-miles tors to urban air pollution because they are old, poorly maintained, and have aging required, the service schedule, the or nonexistent pollution controls. Paratransit vehicles are often driven in an unsafe, vehicle type, and so forth. And at the even reckless manner. (Deaths and serious accidents from automobile injuries are dis- end of a contract, the private compa- proportionately high in developing cities.) Because of overcrowding and a lack of nies often collude to ensure that their stewards and conductors, many women are loath to ride public or paratransit alone own contracts are renewed. Political for fear of harassment, robbery or rape. In several developing cities, most notably ties and lobbying by the operators Mexico City, public institutions are unable to manage or regulate effectively the also distort the bidding system. entrepreneurs who run paratransit.

As a result the vigorous interest in small-scale public transport has yielded to a broad- An equally thorny political problem is er concern for system-wide support of public transit. On balance, it appears that local governments’ reluctance to raise small vehicle paratransit operators are part of long-term, sustainable mobility in transit fares, since they are a very visi- developing cities. Policy-makers need to find ways to integrate the small vehicle ble part of the cost of living to the operators into a more efficient system that includes larger public transport vehicles ordinary citizen. Governments and while retaining the speed and flexibility that make small vehicles attractive. transit systems sometimes face violent revolts when they attempt to raise fares. Additional problems result from of regulation and payment, one in also includes bus-only transitways the lack of personnel or leverage to which the public sector has a more with prepayment stations and other enforce contractor responsibilities prominent role. For example, in features that enhance service (see adequately. Often, a concessionaire Curitiba, ten private bus companies feature box). Curitiba’s busways offer will bid on an unprofitable low-densi- operate services for the entire city, a sophisticated model of public-pri- ty route segment at the outer end of under concession to the Municipality. vate partnership, one that is being his own normal route, to keep a new The concession controls the number copied by dozens of Latin American concessionaire from becoming a and type of vehicles and the frequen- cities, most notably Bogotá. competitor when bringing passengers cy of trips on each route. An impor- into the city. As soon as he gets the tant aspect of the system is the way contract for the extended route, how- revenues are distributed to each Ultimately, public transport depends ever, he reneges on serving it because company. Instead of being deter- on a city’s history, topography, and it is not profitable. Some renege on mined based on the number of pas- current structure, its goals, and the serving the central business area sengers carried (which often pro- political management and willpower because the congestion slows the duces dangerous on-street competi- to achieve them. Experience suggests buses down. tion for passengers), companies are that balancing buses, cars, and met- paid according to kilometers trav- ros in a manner that is equitable to all eled, with payment based on a finan- citizens is easier with only a few oper- The problems of transit management cial analysis that includes a 12% ators and a Curitiba-style revenue dis- basically arise because: return on capital. The user pays a sin- tribution system. Maintaining afford- gle fare, which allows for transfers. able service requires well-managed ● It is very difficult to make the Five service types are offered — competition. Effective public-sector service self-supporting at a including express and executive management is key: service planning good level of quality, though buses, providing differentiated separated from provision; strong low-quality, self-supporting “products” for public transport “mar- technical capacity; and enforcement ket segments.” The Curitiba scheme abilities (World Bank 2001a). In the

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transit systems survive in most developing cities by default. one of necessity. NMT trips can be parking, but they soon realized that excessively long and dangerous — a the improved pedestrian environment

● Adequate management requires fact that automobiles exacerbate, by enhanced sales. The city now has a a complex arrangement lengthening trip distances (pushing nearly 1 kilometer long pedestrian between private contractors out urban area origins and destina- street. Wealthier cities and neighbor- and public authority that is diffi- tions) and producing pollution and hoods have high-quality pedestrian cult to achieve. safety risks that only further discour- facilities — including pedestrian-only age NMT use. zones in downtown Santiago and

● The service is highly political, Buenos Aires. Lower-income urban both in terms of the govern- environments also sometimes have ment’s relation to the public, The efforts a few cities are making to quite functional pedestrian ways, often and the relation between the improve options for pedestrians and self-created and self-enforced as government and private con- cyclists are vital; otherwise, these pedestrian concentrations slow down tractors, who are likely to be modes of transport will continue to and crowd out motor vehicles. The strong and combative. be relegated to “second-class-citizen” traditional market district of Cairo’s status. The challenge for policy-mak- Khan el Khallili is an example. ers has been to recognize the NMT Elsewhere, however, in dense down- Enhancing urban rail ridership. trips that most travelers would prefer towns with multiple types of road Irrespective of future investments in not to make — typically walk trips users and little available space (i.e., metros, it is clear that many existing over 1 kilometer and bike trips over Bangkok), people walk at their own systems could better manage their 3 to 5 kilometers. Recognizing this, risk. Furthermore, pedestrians are often routes and stations and the land uses there are four general areas for inter- pushed aside by efforts to ease con- around them. For example, in both vention in which some progress can gestion for automobiles and buses — Mexico City and Santiago, less than be observed: traffic signals timed for high-speed 40% of the system accounts for 70% traffic, multi-lane high-speed motor- of all passengers. A challenge is to ways, and other schemes for motor ● Attempt to plan land use and increase ridership on the underused vehicle priority leave pedestrians real estate development that metro lines. One possibility is to pro- behind. Cumbersome pedestrian over- can accommodate short trips. mote attractive retail and residential passes or dimly lit, uncomfortable, and development around metro stations. expensive underpasses offer little ● Ensure that people can easily Hong Kong, for example, conces- walk or bicycle to public trans- respite. sioned station development rights to port stations for longer trips. real estate developers. The Singapore

government, enjoying strong controls ● Improve the safety, comfort, Bicycle infrastructure — bike lanes, over land development, focused a and convenience of walking or segregated bike paths, and secure significant portion of housing and cycling by building adequate parking facilities, for instance — can retail activity around its mass rail sidewalks and bike lanes, greatly enhance the cycling experi- transit. Nonetheless, widespread adding bike racks at public ence, improving safety and comfort examples of deliberate “transit-orient- transport stations and other and promoting bicycle use. However, ed development” in the developing common destinations, and edu- as noted earlier, there are some indi- world do not yet exist. cating drivers to respect pedes- cations that widespread bicycle use trians and cyclists. requires something of a bicycle “culture” (such as in the Netherlands,

Nonmotorized Transport (NMT): ● Make bicycles more affordable China, or Vietnam). These are often From the Foot Path to the Bike through technological improve- places where there have been Path and Beyond ments and innovative financing enough bicycles initially to create a schemes. sustained presence in the streets. NMT’s dominant role in much of the Nonetheless, there are examples that developing world’s cities poses a policy can play an important role in policy dilemma. On the one hand, For pedestrians, the primary hurdle is creating such a culture; in Germany, walking and bicycling are part of an the lack of sidewalks, or their for example, public policy has been environmentally and economically encroachment by parked vehicles and credited with producing a bicycling sustainable transport policy. They are vendors. In Bogotá, Mayor Enrique “renaissance” in many cities over the cheap, they have almost no environ- Peñalosa targeted the sidewalks of past 20 years (see Pucher 1997). mental impacts, and they require certain business areas, widening them Some developing nations are follow- very little investment to make them substantially, planting them with ing Germany’s lead. In Poland, for safe and attractive. On the other trees, and forbidding customary park- instance, the Parliament passed a hand, nonmotorized travel can be ing on them. Abutting businesses at national traffic code aimed at improv- extremely burdensome — not an first complained, fearing they would ing cycling conditions. Cyclists now option of choice for travelers, rather lose customers for lack of nearby have the right of way when crossing

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small streets. They are also allowed to Bogotá: It is Never Too Late to Start Improvements use the sidewalks when the speed Bogotá’s “Transmilenio,” which started operation in December 2000, was built upon limit on the road is more than 50 the concept of “Troncales” (busways) drawn from Curitiba. Bogotá’s first “troncal” kilometers per hour. NGOs also was actually built in the 1980s on Caracas Avenue. Although never operated as origi- staged a successful No Car Day with nally designed, this two-lane-per-direction busway was used by nearly 500 buses and 500 cyclists, and involved local gov- carried, under difficult conditions, an estimated 35,000 passengers per hour per ernments in planning for NMT. The direction — astounding levels for a busway, surpassing the practical ridership levels city of Wroclaw plans to build 100 often obtained by metros. The Transmilenio project modified the infrastructure and kilometers of bike paths, and Cracow operational standards of Caracas Avenue and implemented busways on two other aims for 350 kilometers. In Bogotá, main arteries. Current costs of busway development are estimated at $5 million per the Mayor’s office launched the kilometer, with financing coming from a 20% increase in the gasoline tax as well as Bicycle Master Plan (BMP), which from national government transfers. Currently, 20 additional corridors for busway aims to build over 320 kilometers of development are being considered to expand the system. The stated goal of the city bicycle paths, provide bicycle park- government is eventually to have 85% of the city population within 500 meters of a ing, integrate cycling with other bus stop. forms of transport, and provide links to municipalities near Bogotá. Bogotá has also taken important steps toward building a “car-free” culture. For Another important part of creating a example, “Pico y Placa” restricts the use of 40% of the private autos during weekday bicycle “culture” has to do with over- peak hours. To date, Bogotá has avoided many of the negative consequences that coming societal biases and customs plague a similar program in Mexico City. In addition, the city implemented two car- that in some countries virtually pro- free days (in February 2000 and 2001), aimed at educating the population about hibit women from using bicycles. alternative ways to move in the city. Building on the relative success of these initiatives, the city government put its policies to the test in a public referendum, which the voters approved. The referendum includes the “celebration” of a “Car-Free Day” At the same time, there is consider- the first Thursday of every February, and the restriction of all private autos during able room for improving existing weekday peak hours starting in 2015. The government has also embarked on an nonmotorized vehicle technologies as aggressive program to link the entire city by nearly 200 kilometers of bike lanes. well as improving people’s ability to access these vehicles (financing). Unfortunately, improvements to vehicle design (such as lighter cycle rick- roads and busways, and the lack of as a high level of travel ways segre- shaws with gears) typically come with money to pay for them, suggest that gation, operation of trunk and feed- considerable relative cost increases, the first priority should be to maxi- er systems, better on-board or off- rendering them out of reach for mize the use of existing facilities. Key board automatic fare collection sys- many. An affordable, lighter, modern steps include establishing a clear net- tems, improved layout and opera- cycle rickshaw has been introduced in work hierarchy, an adequate mainte- tion of bus stops, implementation of several Indian cities over the past few nance system, well-functioning sig- bus-actuated traffic-signal systems, years, however, and affordable, pro- nals and clear traffic signage, strong and improvement of bus quality ductive trailers have met with consid- traffic enforcement capabilities giving design, comfort and performance” erable success in parts of Africa. In an priority to public buses, and ensuring (Meirelles 2000). effort to increase low-income earners’ that bus stops are convenient, well- access to nonmotorized vehicles, the maintained, and easy to use. Beyond World Bank introduced a revolving gains in traffic efficiency, such steps If successful, results can be impressive. loan fund in Lima, through which can reduce traffic accidents (Ragland Kunming, China, introduced a dedi- workers can finance bicycle purchas- et al. 1992). cated bus lane in 1999, including stop es, with repayments made through islands and bus priority at traffic lights, monthly pay checks in agreement connecting the airport and dense resi- with industrial employers. The pro- Again, Brazil is something of a role dential areas with the city center. gram was poorly promoted and mar- model for public transport priority in Initial results have been impressive: a keted, however, and has met with infrastructure, starting with Curitiba’s 13% increase in ridership, a 60% modest success to date. busway efforts in 1974, later to be decrease in passenger boarding time, followed by other cities (São Paulo in a 70% increase in average travel 1975, Goiânia in 1976, and Pôrto speeds, and a 50% reduction in the Traffic and Infrastructure Alegre in 1977). In Brazil today, number of buses required to provide Management “there has been a clear tendency for service (Joos 2000). policies that give privileges to public Many cities in the developing world transport by bus. It is assumed by all are aware that management of traffic levels of government that it is possi- and infrastructure is fundamental to ble to improve bus transport capaci- improving mobility. The high cost of ty through different measures, such

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Curitiba, Brazil: Bus-Based Public Transport That Works fic management measures for purposes of demand management. These Curitiba, Brazil, is a city of a million people in southern Brazil, in the province of are also subject to criticism and politi- Parana. For over 30 years Curitiba benefited from the leadership of Jaime Lerner as, cal resistance, but actions of this sort alternately, mayor and director of planning. Lerner constantly supported the same, are in place in many cities. They simple principles of transportation and land-use planning, and he had the sagacity include improved conditions for and political capital to advance his policies with notable success. pedestrians, parking restrictions and The Curitiba “model” is based on four fundamental principles: charges, limits on the use of trucks or two-wheeled motorized vehicles in ● Land use and transport integration — focus urban expansion along busways parts of the city or time of day, and and promote dense land use along them through zoning, regulations, and fis- other more widespread vehicle cal incentives. restrictions. For example, Mexico City, São Paulo, Santiago, and Bogotá ● Public transport priority in infrastructure — busways on major roads, segregat- each uses some version of automobile ed bus stops with preboard ticket payment. use restrictions, based on the last

● Service integration -— use transfer stations and terminals, include circumferen- digit of a vehicle’s license plate. tial and feeder routes, and use an integrated fare. Mostly geared toward reducing air pollution (typically used during the ● “Affordable” innovation —articulated and bi-articulated (locally built) buses, pollution “high season”), these vehi- express buses with specialized boarding tubes, public services and other activi- cle restrictions have proven to be ties located at terminals. highly imperfect. In Mexico City, for example, the measure is criticized for Not only did Curitiba benefit from the vision of one man, but also from the institu- several reasons, one of which is that tional framework he helped create. At the same time Curitiba’s plan was drawn up in it promotes the purchase of addition- 1965, Municipal Law created an urban research and planning institute, IPPUC, which al vehicles (to avoid the ban), and has broad responsibilities for integrated planning in the city. In 1980, a newly creat- that these vehicles tend to be sec- ed public transport authority, URBS, began administering bus stops and stations, ondhand and more polluting. The parking meters, the taxi system, and traffic enforcement. URBS also administers the measure is also criticized for being distribution of the Urbanization Fund, which comes from bus fare collection, as fol- inequitable (since the wealthy could lows: 90% returned to private-sector bus operators; 6% to infrastructure develop- avoid the ban with second vehicles); ment; and 4% to financing URBS. inducing additional overall travel (freeing up a second vehicle for days Lerner’s plans and oversight made Curitiba a widely hailed model. Bi-articulated with no restriction); and draining buses whisk up to 250 passengers along their commutes at 90% the speed of autos, political and administrative resources the smallest differential between auto and bus peak travel speeds of all the major for ban enforcement. In Bogotá, on cities in Brazil. Many of the negative consequences of motorization, such as acci- the contrary, where somewhat differ- dents, pollution, and noise, are greatly ameliorated by the use of high-speed corri- ent limits on the peak-hour use of dors with appropriate buildings abutting them, which buffer residential and retail vehicles are in place, observers widely areas from the unpleasant side effects of traffic. agree that they have been effective. It is noteworthy that Curitiba owes its transportation system largely to the vision, energy, and political power of one man. Few urban areas anywhere are led so vigor- ously, for so long, by one farsighted leader. Lee Yuan Kew’s leadership of Singapore is Another alternative to charging road one of the few political tenures to match Lerner’s. Considering that most cities will users full prices is to subsidize public not have a Jaime Lerner or Lee Yuan Kew to lead them for a generation, it is impor- transportation operations directly, a tant that planners build as much political and social support for their visions as possi- move that can be justified for the ble, so that their plans may survive the vicissitudes of partisan politics and shifting many social and environmental bene- urban leadership. fits it generates. Yet subsidizing public transport operations to offset the uncharged “external” costs of auto Demand Management politics, institutional barriers, and tech- use is a less-than-desirable approach, nical challenges, cost considerations particularly since those subsidies As is the case in the developed world, related to implementing a congestion themselves may create perverse economists advocate charging autos pricing scheme or a lack of widespread incentives and inefficiencies in opera- for the social, environmental, and con- understanding of full-cost pricing tions. Furthermore, the overall cli- gestion costs they create, and argue among politicians, technocrats, and mate favoring privatization of bus ser- that this would help foster lower, more the general public. vices and the general bias against sustainable levels of traffic. However maintaining public transport subsidies persuasive such proposals may be in where they exist (i.e., Central and theory, the use of such fees is limited in Instead, cities often resort to another Eastern Europe) makes their long- practice, either because of practical alternative — the use of physical traf- term viability questionable.

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Singapore: The Ultimately, the most effective demand team, a series of new neighborhoods Paragon of Land-Use management tools may come from and business districts is planned Planning and Traffic technology. For instance, electronic about 20 kilometers from the center Management road pricing allows time- and place- of the city, beyond the wave of cur- specific congestion fees via advanced rent development. These centers are Singapore is a success story of telematics, without the burden and to be developed through the use of a how to achieve mobility through delay of toll booths. Technologies for revolving fund with which the gov- the effective use of travel demand more accurate pricing have now ernment acquires minimal land for management. Of all the high- become viable, but area-wide applica- urban services and installs basic income countries, most of whose tion exists only in Singapore. The infrastructure. The cost is then cars-per-thousand population fig- World Bank began advocating road refunded to the government by arriv- ure ranges from 350–550, pricing for Asian cities like Bangkok ing developers. Land has already Singapore’s figure remains as low and Kuala Lumpur in the 1970s. been acquired for the first of these as 120 cars, above only Hong Legislation allowing for congestion centers at Lot Krabang, near the site Kong at 55 (World Bank 2000). pricing has been languishing in the of a new airport. Due to its rapid economic growth Chilean Legislature since 1990. over the last 40 years in a con- Implementation seems no closer in fined physical space, Singapore most places than it does in the indus- Hong Kong and Singapore offer other has had to promote innovative trialized world. However, the poten- examples of mobility-oriented land- transportation policies to prevent tials for implementation should not use planning. Neither of these can be excessive congestion. Through be ignored, if only because the politi- characterized as a developing area use of the pricing mechanism in cal equation theoretically still stacks in anymore, but they were both low- particular, Singapore has experi- its favor — most of the voting public income areas not many decades ago. mented with successful policies still does not own automobiles and Their strict attention to land develop- including the Area License these people, plus potentially powerful ment is one of the cornerstones of Scheme (1975), the Vehicle political allies such as bus operators, their ascent into high-income, highly Quota System (1990), and the would stand to benefit greatly. developed cities. However, these Electronic Road Pricing Scheme cities have benefited from relatively (1998). Despite inevitable imper- strong centralized authority, with fections in policy design, the Mobility and Land Planning broad powers for land acquisition and overall outcome is that motoriza- development controls. The reality of tion restraints have had no major The current rapid urban expansion most developing countries is much negative side effects on economic and transformation gripping many different — the relevant tools will growth or the improvement of developing-country cities poses both often be spread across several institu- social welfare (Willoughby a major challenge and a great oppor- tions with different goals in mind, 2000b). In addition, price-mecha- tunity to enhance mobility. While with varying ultimate impacts on nism-generated revenues have urban growth creates demand for mobility. A recent analysis of the tools resulted in large funds that have, new transportation infrastructure and for managing urban growth in in turn, been used to invest in services, it also offers the chance to Santiago sheds light on these compli- social improvements well beyond direct real estate development in cations (see Table 4-10); in few cases the realm of traffic management dense clusters and corridors. Such are transportation authorities directly and transportation infrastructure. land planning can, for example, help involved. The geographic and political par- maintain and promote public trans- ticularity of Singapore, as an port usage. Unfortunately, land plan- island-state with a strong-willed ning in the interest of mobility has a Transport Planning and leader, Lee Yuan Kew, provided dismal record in most countries — Institutions: Daunting Tasks perhaps the impetus and condi- developing or developed. The appro- Ahead tions for its innovative policies. priate tools of land planning, growth And it is questionable if other boundaries, impact fees and exac- Urban transportation involves multi- societies would accept such tions, density guidelines, and housing ple institutions, some of which have sweeping oversight of their subsidies are used in some develop- competing interests and responsibili- mobility. Yet the lessons ing cities, but rarely have they been ties. Institutional difficulties are fre- Singapore learned have much to pursued with specific mobility goals. quently the principal barrier to imple- inform policy-making in most Again, the case of Curitiba stands out menting coherent policies in the sec- areas of the developing world. as a model, with land development tor, in both developing and devel- This is particularly true given the strategies linked closely to the con- oped countries (Anderson et al. 1993, phases of development from poor struction of its busways. Recent plan- Gakenheimer 1993). Even establish- developing country to rich devel- ning for Bangkok includes land-use ing an overarching authority does not oped country that Singapore planning for improved mobility. guarantee success, because of the went through in these years. Based on a plan prepared by an MIT multiple political and economic inter-

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Table 4-10. Differing responsibilities and goals in transport and land planning in Santiago

Responsible Practical Transport Instrument Institution Objective Effects Land-Use Plans Municipal governments, Ensure land Historical disconnect between National Ministry of development meets responsible authorities; no Housing and Urban public needs — serious transport analysis Development zoning, adequate behind land plans. infrastructure, etc. Urban Growth Municipal governments, Control urban Somewhat slowed urban Boundary (UGB) National Ministry of expansion. outgrowth, but likely led to Housing and Urban uncoordinated/poorly Development equipped suburbanization. Low-Income Ministry of Housing and Providing housing to Have exacerbated transport Housing Urban Development low-income residents. conditions by fueling urban Subsidies expansion. Urban Ministry of Housing and Revitalize center city City center residential Revitalization Urban Development; neighborhoods with revitalization has likely Subsidies Municipality of Santiago residential reduced some travel demand. development. Roadway Municipal governments, Ensure that real estate Have improved project and Impact Studies Ministry of Transport projects and land plan development recently; (EI/ST, EFVs) plans have adequate continued emphasis on transport provision. infrastructure.

Environmental National Environment Ensure real estate Currently have produced nil Impact Studies Commission projects comply with transport effects. environmental norms. Transport Municipal governments, Ensure that real estate Have increased developers’ Exactions and Ministry of Transport projects “pay” for transportation infrastructure Impact Fees their transport responsibility. impacts. “New City” Municipal governments, Regulate the May create more self- Regulations Ministry of Transport widespread suburban sufficient communities, but “megaprojects” under also longer net travel way. distances.

Source: Zegras and Gakenheimer (2000).

ests involved, not to mention the sec- Foreign expertise often comes ill components of the urban transporta- tor’s inherent complexity. The future equipped to deal with local prob- tion system. This situation is clearly holds a great deal of uncertainty, lems, and foreign aid often comes changing in many industrializing making it hard to picture technology, linked with particular technological countries — particularly those mid- demand, and economic conditions as solutions in mind. The result can be a dle-income countries with growing a platform for proposals. constantly rotating team of experts, cadres of technically savvy experts in each with a different technical and the field. methodological style, harboring dif- Developing countries, however, face ferent unexpressed expectations additional challenges related to short- about the future, and leaving a differ- Nonetheless, as technical capacity ages of human and financial capital, ent legacy of professional beliefs and increases, so do the number and types institutional flux (often linked to operational models. In the case of of challenges, such as effective regula- decentralization), and weak regulato- transportation planning in Cairo over tion of privately owned public trans- ry frameworks. The presence of inter- the last two decades, for example, portation; a legal and regulatory national assistance — in the form of there have been at least 10 different framework for managing and enforc- donors, consultants, international national professional cultures partici- ing infrastructure concessions; model- agencies — often is a mixed blessing. pating in the planning of various ing complex travel supply and

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Rural Transport in Developing Countries

Rural citizens use means of transportation very different from that of their urban cousins. In general, rural dwellers experience very limited mobility and accessibility to the most basic services, such as local and regional markets, health clinics, and schools. Transport conditions are often difficult, and traveling takes up a large amount of time and physical effort. Most rural, peasant communities have limited accessibility to areas outside their immediate vicinity. It is not entirely clear, however, how much rural dwellers suffer low-mobility levels because of their rural settings or their economic conditions. For example, at least one study finds a strong similarity between factors explaining urban and rural travel trip generation — income and household characteristics dominate (Deaton et al. 1987). In fact, controlling for income, rural households in the developing world are more likely to own vehicles than urban households (Deaton et al. 1987). So, the transportation problem in rural areas of the developing world derives, in part, from their very rural nature: dispersed activities make accessing various opportunities difficult, particularly given the low-income levels and lack of vehicular alternatives. (Indeed, rural migration to urban areas focuses specifically on improving access, particularly to employment and educational opportunities.)

Thus, in rural transportation, the question arises: How much are poor levels of accessibility in rural areas a transport problem or a development problem, and what role can transportation play in improving rural development?

Although each rural area in developing countries experiences different transport problems and situations, some common characteristics of rural transport can be observed.

● The rural population of many developing countries moves mainly by walking and undertakes very few motorized trips. For example, in Kenya, pedestrian trips account for 92% of the traffic volume on community roads (Gaviria 1991). Another study has shown that 87% of trips in rural Africa take place on foot (Barwell 1996), while bicycles make 81% of vehicle trips on some main roads in Uganda (Grisley 1994).

● The lack of ownership and access to means of transport constrain the mobility and accessibility of rural people. Again, low incomes prevent all but very few households in rural areas from owning any form of motor vehicle transport. Walking, cycling, and animal-traction are therefore the common modes of transport. The most common ways of transporting goods are head-loading and/or other forms of physical porterage.

● The majority of the trips are within and around the village, with the purpose of collecting basic necessities, such as fuel and water, and to cultivate farms and fields for subsistence needs.

● The gender division of labor is a key determinant of transport demand and use of transport services. Women are often exhausted from meeting transport needs, a task that can consume most of their day. This is particularly true in most African societies, where women are responsible for the bulk of cultivation tasks. Women spend more than 65% of the household time and effort on transport in rural Africa (Barwell 1996).

● The poor are worst located when it comes to accessing services. They make shorter and fewer trips than the rich, but take a longer time doing it. For instance, in a rural area in Tanzania, a household with five persons undertakes more than 1,600 trips annually, which in total require more than 2,500 hours. The procurement of energy and water requires annually more than 1,000 hours (Sieber 1996; et al.).

As transport conditions are closely related to poverty in the rural areas in developing countries, the focus of rural transport planning has been on how to improve transport accessibility and mobility. The objective is to increase opportunities for income generation through improving access to labor and product markets, which are important for the poor. Improving rural transportation serves to evolve the rural economy from subsistence to market economy. An inefficient transport system is a significant constraint on the agricultural sector in rural areas, both by raising the costs and effectiveness of production inputs and by delaying the sale of harvested crops. In fact, alleviating this problem has been the rationale and justification for road projects in rural areas in developing countries since the 1960s.

A study of the impact of 56 rural roads projects funded by the World Bank in six African countries found a close relationship between the performances of the agricultural and transport sectors (Gaviria 1991). Another evaluation of a World Bank road project in Morocco found that the project helped increase agricultural activity by improving the volume of production, productivity of land, and monetary values of output. Rural roads could also lead to the development of off-farm employment opportunities (Khandker et al. 1994).

In the case of healthcare, a study shows that new rural roads have made it possible for hospitals to attract more patients who live farther afield (Airey 1992). In education, the presence of a paved road in the community significantly increased the school participation rates of children in rural areas in Morocco (Khandker et al. 1994).

Nevertheless, many argue that the conventional rural transport planning approach has overwhelmingly focused only on paved roads, conventional motor vehicles, and marketable agriculture. Many women spend their days collecting water and crops instead of selling their crops. The focus on conventional motor vehicles does not serve their needs (Ahmed 1997).

www.wbcsdmobility.org 4-29 personal mobility in the urbanized regions of the developing world

Furthermore, there is the complex problem of the impacts road construction in rural country to another (Godard and Diaz areas has had on ecosystems and traditional cultures. Roads have been blamed for Olvera 2000). contributing to the loss of tropical forests, by opening previously inaccessible areas to logging and agriculture. One of the most notorious examples is Brazil’s Polonoreste highway project; because of poor planning and implementation, the NOTE project induced large-scale migration to the area, and widespread environmental degradation. Such projects highlight the need to be able to quantify the impacts of rural road-building on development and the environment in order to assess the 1. Contrary to the general trend of tradeoffs adequately (Chomitz and Gray 1996). increasing trip rates with increasing incomes, trip-making seems to be stagnating/declining despite apparent increases in income in at demand interactions and air quality ral response to such a condition is to least one, possibly two document- conditions; and developing and imple- make large infrastructure invested cases. Beyond the possibilities menting adequate vehicle inspection ments — to “show” that something of some inconsistencies in data and maintenance programs. is being done about the problem. collection, these apparently Nonetheless, despite the short-term declining trip rates could come political profitability of launching from a variety of factors, includ- Progress requires the political will to large infrastructure projects, the ing: deteriorating travel times, develop an adequate understanding greatest long-term return may well declining public safety, or of reality through data collection, and lie in investing time and resources changes in urban form. then develop the analysis tools into adequate information and prob- appropriate for local conditions. lem-solving tools and skills — “soft- Without quality baseline information ware” over “hardware.” The fact on transportation and land uses, it is remains that transportation policy is difficult to make the necessary evalu- an inherently political process. ations and analyses of potential solu- Successful policy prescriptions at the tions. Nonetheless, even with such technical level may be hampered by transport analysis capabilities, the the nature of the institutional and need to estimate environmental political arena. Pricing in particular impacts requires another level of has achieved a highly contentious detail, including the wide variety of political status when people perceive vehicle types and their emissions of roads and transport services as characteristics, operating conditions, public goods in the hands of the and so forth. Developing mechanisms state. As a result, pricing for full-cost to reduce the range of transporta- recovery has met with limited suc- tion’s other external effects (conges- cess in all countries except those tion, accidents, noise pollution, etc.) willing to take the political risks to requires data management systems, enforce it. decent monitoring, and efforts at economic valuation of these external costs. This requires close collabora- Some observers suggest that it is no tion between vehicle inspection surprise that Curitiba and Singapore, authorities, environmental authorities, two widely cited examples of good traffic police, planners, etc. — never a planning and management, were simple task in any political-institution- developed in periods of unitary gov- al setting. More widespread citizen ernment under strong leadership. involvement, though not yet a Others point out that strong unitary “requirement” in transportation plan- governments with definite visions not ning in developing countries, is on modulated by a participative plan- the rise. Certainly a welcome move- ning process are at least as likely to ment in helping to make planning produce planning disasters as they processes more transparent, not to are to produce role models. Given mention ensuring all needs are heard, the political complexity of individual “public participation” also can further nations and cities, it should be no complicate the process. surprise that the experience in developing countries has been incredibly diverse, and it is important to The rapid pace of change in devel- remember that there is “no single oping countries suggests something transposable solution” from one of a “state of emergency.” The natu-

www.wbcsdmobility.org 4-30 trends in intercity travel

Intercity passenger travel accounts for a relatively small share of total trips but for a much larger and growing share of total passenger-kilometers. In the developed world, intercity passenger travel is by automobile, air, and rail. In the developing world, intercity passenger travel is less common. What intercity travel there is uses bus, rail, and to a small but rapidly growing extent, air.

Although the automobile accounts for a large share of all developed world intercity trips, the use of the auto for intercity travel is usually a byproduct of travelers’ decisions to own an auto primarily for local use. Likewise, most road systems have been developed primarily to meet local or regional rather than intercity travel needs. The German Autobahns, Italian Autostradas, British Motorways, French Autoroutes, and American Interstates make up a small part of each country’s road system, though they carry a disproportionate share of the road traffic.

Intercity bus travel is very important in the developing world, as is “conventional” rail. Bus travel is growing as a share of total developing world passenger kilometers, though it is uncertain how much of this growth reflects urban travel and how much reflects intercity travel. The shares of both “conventional” rail and bus are substantially smaller in the developed world and are shrinking.

In Japan and Europe, high-speed rail plays a significant and growing role in intercity travel. (In Japan, high- speed rail accounts for approximately 4% of all passenger kilometers; in Europe, the figure is approaching 1%). Even in the United States, high-speed rail has shown it can be an effective competitor to air under the right circumstances.

Air accounts for a large and growing share of intercity travel in the developed world. However, air travel is projected to grow especially rapidly in the future in the developing world. Air travel, especially in the developed world, faces a number of significant challenges. Many airports are becoming overcrowded, and citizen opposition prevents their expansion or the construction of new airports. Airport noise is a perennial concern, but airport-related emissions pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides, are attracting growing attention in many urban areas. So is the traffic congestion associated with airport passengers, employees, and transporters of cargo. Air transport is an inherently energy-intensive mode of transportation. Jet fuel is the fastest growing transport-related petroleum product. This by itself would tag air transport as an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. However, air transport’s role in greenhouse gas emissions is believed to be significantly amplified by the fact that these emissions occur at high altitude, where their influence on the climate is believed to be greater pound for pound.

www.wbcsdmobility.org 5-1 trends in intercity travel

This chapter focuses on intercity pas- wide differences in the travel options Further compounding the problem is senger travel.1 Travel between cities that are available or in the quality of the fact that all four modes, and the accounts for a relatively small portion the available infrastructure. A trip of trips one takes in them, differ sub- of trips, but a much larger and grow- 100 kilometers might in one setting stantially in terms of speed, distance, ing portion of total person-kilome- be regarded as a reasonable daily travel time, and vehicle occupancy. ters. US data suggest that while inter- commute, and in another as an ardu- The American Travel Survey is a city travel accounted for only about ous and infrequently made trip to a household-based survey that provides 0.25% of the total trips made by resi- remote location. On the other hand, an overview of intercity travel in the dents in 1995, it accounted for about a distance-based measure is more United States (US DOT, BTS 1997b). 19.5% of total person-kilometers trav- consistent over the range of available Although the US experience is not eled. This is up from 17% in 1977 means of transportation. Certainly, it fully representative of mobility trends (US DOT, BTS 2000). Between 1975 is easier to comment on, since much elsewhere, it is representative of inter- and 2000, intercity travel, especially of the data on intercity travel across city travel in the developed world. travel by air, grew at explosive rates, the world use distance-based defini- The abundance and consistency of making it one of the most notewor- tions.2 the US data offer a rich tableau for thy aspects of global mobility. analysis and projections. In the United States, most intercity travel is In the next section, we present some made via auto (or other personal Although this distinction — travel data on trends in intercity travel as a vehicles), or via air. Table 5-1 shows a between cities versus travel within whole. This is followed by a discus- breakdown of domestic intercity trips and around urban areas — is intu- sion of the nature of demand for and passenger-kilometers by mode. itively easy to understand, it is diffi- intercity trips. We then review mobili- The figures reflect only trips to US cult to define. What would be consid- ty trends and associated sustainability destinations, and so exclude interna- ered a short intercity trip in a particu- issues related to the use of four tional journeys. A large majority of lar place at a particular time may be modes of transport that account for these trips are made by auto. considered just a long urban trip in a virtually all intercity passenger travel: Considered from the perspective of different place, or sometimes even in auto, bus, rail, and air.3 passenger-kilometers, however, the the same place at different times. dominance of the auto is considerably diminished. Air is more impor- TRENDS IN THE VOLUME OF tant in passenger-kilometer terms One way to distinguish between INTERCITY TRAVEL than in trip terms because air trips intercity and urban travel is to look at are much longer than trips by auto. how the two categories of travel fit Because of the way in which travel By either measure, however, bus and within a typical individual’s daily statistics are maintained, it is difficult rail play relatively minor roles in the activity patterns. Trips that are made to assemble a clear picture of trends United States. Canadian figures show every day, or as part of one’s normal in the volume of intercity travel. a similar pattern, with over 90% of daily routine (e.g., a daily commute Some of the difficulty stems from the Canadian domestic intercity trips to work) are part of urban travel. fact that autos, buses, and trains are made using automobiles (Transport Indeed, information on commuting used for trips between cities and also Canada 1996, slide 21). patterns plays a prominent role in for trips in and around them. most formal definitions of what con- Available statistics often describe the stitutes a metropolitan area (US overall level of demand or usage for Although they are marginal in the Census Bureau 2001). In contrast, automobiles or buses without specify- United States and Canada, rail and intercity trips are atypical and made ing how that usage is divided bus are more significant elsewhere. infrequently. An example would be a between the two categories of travel. Rail travel remains important in family’s annual summer vacation, or a trip to an extended family gather- ing at a remote location. Table 5-1. Distribution of 1995 US Domestic Intercity Trips and Passenger-Km, by Mode

Distribution by Mode This distinction highlights an impor- (percent) tant fact: intercity trips are infrequent Average Trip because they are costly, both in terms Trips Passenger km Length of time and out-of-pocket expense. Intercity trips could be defined in Auto 81.3 54.6 894 terms of thresholds of either time Air 16.1 43.0 3549 (trips longer than some amount of Bus 2.0 1.6 1048 time) or distance. Each definition has its own advantages. A focus on trip Rail 0.5 0.5 1404 time could potentially circumvent Source: US DOT, BTS (1997b); US Census Bureau (1977).

www.wbcsdmobility.org 5-2 mobility 2001

The volume of intercity travel is growing at a remarkable rate, even after adjustment for increases in population. The relevant figures are shown in Table 5-2, which again reflects only domestic travel. The period from 1977 to 1995 saw substantial increases in the number of trips per capita, in the length of those trips, and hence also in the total number of passenger-kilometers per capita. These rates of increase exceeded by a large margin the increase in real per capita income over the same period, which grew at a rate of 1.6% per annum (US Census Bureau 2000).

One of the most significant developments in global mobility over the last Western Europe, Japan, and some sum, the figures indicate that the few decades is the rapid growth in air parts of the developing world. Figure most significant difference between travel. As Figure 5-2 shows, passenger 5-1 shows the composition of interci- intercity travel trends in the United air travel measured by revenue pas- ty travel in the United Kingdom and States and those in the two European senger-kilometers has grown at an the Netherlands. Unlike the US data, countries is the role of rail. Rail average of over 5% annually world- these figures include international accounts for about 7% of the passen- wide and at as much as 12% annual- travel. Although the data for the ger-kilometers traveled in Britain, ly in the last 15 years in places like Netherlands do not allow us to differ- most of which seems to come at the China (Airbus 2000, p. 12; Boeing entiate between bus and rail, other expense of air. Bus travel is increasing 2000, p. 23). data suggest about 70% of the Dutch in the developing world, especially in public transport travel is on rail. In regions not served by rail. These same trends are visible in data from the United States. As Table 5-3 shows, in the 18 years between 1977 Table 5-2. Change in US Domestic Intercity Trips and and 1995 air trip rates in the United Passenger-Km Per Person, 1977 and 1995 States more than doubled, and average trip lengths increased by 15%. 1977 1995 Annual Growth As a result, annual air passenger-kilo- Annual Trips per Person 2.5 3.9 2.5% meters per capita increased by 132% in this period, an average of 4.5% Annual Passenger-km 2,982 5,038 3.1% per Person annually. Average Trip Length (km) 1,182 1,330 0.7% Source: US DOT, BTS (1997b), US Census Bureau (1977). These figures raise the issue of whether air travel is diverting passengers away from other means of travel, or if it represents a new, independent source of travel demand. Table 5-4, Table 5-3. Change in US Domestic Air Trips and Passenger- which shows the growth of intercity Km per Person, 1977 and 1995 auto travel in the period, sheds light on this issue. The data indicate that Annual although the number of intercity trips 1977 1995 Growth made by auto increased substantially Annual Air Trips per Person 0.30 0.61 4.0% over the period (52%), the average length of intercity auto trips Annual Air Passenger-km 937 2,175 4.5% remained almost unchanged, at per Person approximately 850 kilometers. Trips Average Air Trip Length (km) 3,093 3,549 0.8% via air are substantially longer. These Sources: US DOT, BTS (1997b); US Census Bureau (1977, 1979, 1997). data suggest that although some of

www.wbcsdmobility.org 5-3 trends in intercity travel

the increase in air travel may have represent a more significant element European national to an East Asian come at the expense of auto (primar- of intercity travel by US travelers. destination may be motivated by a ily by way of substitution of longer- desire to meet with a business part- distance air vacations for short-dis- ner or associate based there. tance auto vacations), a majority of In many respects the role that inter- However, it is highly unlikely that a the growth in air travel reflects the national travel plays in the lives of European national would have such creation of and growth in an inde- residents of the United States is atypi- relationships at all in the absence of pendent travel market comprising dif- cal. With its large land area and pop- sophisticated transportation and ferent and longer-length trips. ulation, the United States is more telecommunication infrastructure. self-contained than many other Myriad business and personal rela- nations. One can travel much farther tionships stimulate travel between The figures shown in Table 5-4 indi- without crossing national boundaries cities. Businesses relying upon distant cate that a substantial portion of the than is the case for many other coun- suppliers or maintaining a far-flung growth in auto trips is related to tries. Hence, international travel con- network of production facilities will growth in auto ownership. Given the stitutes a correspondingly smaller need to visit them. International relatively small fraction of auto use fraction of the intercity travel of US migrants will return to their home represented by intercity travel, it is residents. countries to visit family and friends. unlikely that such travel plays a major Scientists and researchers will travel role in auto purchase decisions. to confer with professional col- One aspect of international travel leagues. that the United States does share Trips from the United States to other with other countries is its rate of destinations account for a relatively expansion. Such travel is among the Intercity travel depends to an impor- small fraction of intercity trips by most rapidly growing components of tant degree on accessibility, i.e., how Americans. Table 5-5 shows that intercity passenger travel. far the destination is, the cost and international trips accounted for only quality of traveling there, and the 4% of the total number of intercity costs of travel alternatives. How often trips made by US travelers in 1995, THE DEMAND FOR INTERCITY people travel will be strongly influ- although this was a 20% increase TRAVEL enced by how much a trip costs, from 1977, when international trips both in money and time. Which rela- constituted only 3.3% of total trips. It Intercity travel is both a reflection of tionships are formed, which are is worth noting, however, that these geographic patterns of social and maintained or abandoned, and how trips are likely to be considerably economic interaction, and a factor strong specific relationships become longer than most domestic trips. shaping the evolution of those pat- will all be influenced by how easy or Thus, on a passenger-mile basis, they terns. The two must really be consid- difficult it is to communicate and ered simultaneously. A trip by a interact.

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Table 5-4. Change in Domestic Intercity Auto Trips and Passenger-Km per Person, 1977 and 1995

Annual 1977 1995 Growth Annual Intercity Auto Trips per Person 2.0 3.1 2.5% Annual Intercity Auto Passenger-km per Person 1,713 2,768 2.7% Annual Intercity Auto Trips per Registered Vehicle 3.2 4 1.2% Annual Intercity Auto Passenger-km per Registered Vehicle 2,660 3,679 1.8% Average Auto Trip Length for Intercity Trips 840 894 0.3% Source: US DOT, BTS (1997b); US Census Bureau (1977, 1979, 1997).

The role of institutional factors in are now global, creating multination- industrialized OECD nations to defining the level of social and eco- al firms that operate all over the nations in Asia, Eastern Europe, and nomic interaction between regions world, and production networks now Latin America. merits discussion. Perhaps the most span the world. A multinational mar- important factor is the international ket has emerged for an array of prod- border. Studies show that passenger ucts ranging from most consumer The implications of global sourcing travel demand between two cities in goods (cars, Pepsi®, CDs) to special- for passenger travel are noteworthy. the same country is seven to ten ized services such as technical consul- Manufacturers and suppliers must times greater than what it would be if tancy (McKinsey, URS). often collaborate closely over ques- the two cities were located in different tions of design or performance speci- countries. Obviously, a shared lan- fications, or to resolve technical guage, culture, and history can drive Not only do finished products sell all problems. Such economic relation- relationships and travel. However, over the world, but products are ships generate a higher number of other institutional barriers such as increasingly manufactured within face-to-face meetings, and a corre- trade restrictions and national immi- global production networks. There sponding rise in international busi- gration policies also play an important has long been extensive international ness travel. For example, estimates role in shaping international travel. In trade in raw materials and finished suggest that international travel went the coming years, considerable goods. The rapid expansion of trade from a share of about 6% of total US change is anticipated in the structure in components and subassemblies is corporate business travel in 1994 to of this global institutional framework. a more recent phenomenon. Autos about 20% in 1997 (Johnson and Three related trends — two economic and computers are increasingly Sherlock 1998). and one demographic — are worth assembled in locations and countries highlighting. different from those where the parts are manufactured. This trend now Finally, an important demographic extends to businesses such as com- trend — increases in the amount of First, a variety of international organi- puter programming and customer international migration — underlies zations (such as the World Trade service. A significant percentage of some of the recent growth in interna- Organization) and regional trading the computer programming in the tional travel. In absolute terms, the blocks (such as the European Union United States and Europe is out- United States and Germany are the and Mercosur) are working to reduce sourced to India (Business Week principal receiving countries, trade restrictions across national bor- 2000), and many global firms are although migration to these countries ders. These efforts range from elimi- consolidating customer call services tended to decline somewhat toward nation of tariffs to allowing free to Asia (NYT 2001b). A key feature of the end of the 1990s. During the movement by citizens of member this phenomenon is a dispersion of same period, the upturn in migration states, or unification of standards for production activity away from the that began earlier in the decade in the conduct of business in the free trade area.4 Table 5-5. International Trips of US Residents, 1977 and 1995

Second, the role of international Annual investments in the global economy, 1977 1995 Growth particularly those made by multina- International Trips Per Capita 0.1 0.16 2.6% tional corporations, is increasing. Percent of All Intercity Trips 3.31 4 1.1% Globalization in economic activity creates a demand for travel: markets Sources: US DOT, BTS (1997b); US Census Bureau (1977, 1979, 1997).

www.wbcsdmobility.org 5-5 trends in intercity travel

most other countries of Europe and the net impact is one of complemen- gers making more than 10 trips a in Japan and Australia was sustained tarity, and continued growth in both year accounted for 44% of the busi- and increased. Migration creates a telecommunications and travel should ness travel in the United States in the network of personal ties between be expected.” year 1993 (ATA 1993). sending and receiving countries that in turn stimulates subsequent intercity travel. This suggests that for the foreseeable Business travelers are generally more future, telecommunications is likely to concerned with ease of travel — faster stimulate the growth of intercity trav- and more conveniently scheduled The Role of Telecommunications el. Current expectations based on sys- trips — than cost. Destinations for tems and technologies being devel- intercity business trips are usually pre- At least to date, telecommunications oped and deployed are for telecom- determined. Decisions regarding how appear to be a complement to, rather munications services to continue to to travel, what time of day to travel, than a substitute for, intercity travel. fall in price and grow in bandwidth. and (to the degree it is discretionary) To some degree, developments in Barring some major shift in human the duration of the trip, are generally telecommunications substitute for behavior and expectations regarding made to favor convenience over costs. travel in the short run, but ultimately face-to-face contact, such trends can Costs influence the level of travel in result in enlarged spheres of opera- be expected over the long term to the long term but have little impact tion, more extensive networks of lead to more communications over on the level of travel in the short business and personal relationships, longer distances, and eventually also term. Business travelers tend to and ultimately, more travel. more long-distance travel. patronize the fastest, most convenient mode of travel, usually air or high- There have been significant develop- speed rail, and they generally choose Intercity Trips — Various Kinds ments in worldwide communication the fastest, most convenient, and for Various Reasons technology deployment in recent most flexible of the options available. years. Estimates suggest that the In order to go beyond these basic number of Internet users globally trends in the volume of intercity trav- increased from 49.8 million in 1996 el and gain insight to the nature of Nonbusiness travel. Discussions of to about 258.2 million in 2000 travel demand, it is necessary to con- intercity travel often draw a distinction (PulseOnline 2000). The installation of sider the goals of different trips. between trips made for business and submarine fiber-optic cables has also trips made for other reasons. Although exploded and is expected to grow both subcategories undoubtedly 40% annually for the next few years. Business travel. The 1995 American include a variety of different types of For instance, a group called Global Travel survey conducted by the US trips made for a variety of different Crossing recently reported that it Department of Transportation found reasons, nonbusiness travel is likely to completed construction of a high- that 23% of all intercity trips and be especially heterogeneous. To speed fiber-optic network linking 27 47% of air trips in the United States understand the factors driving non- countries in Europe, the Americas, were made for business travel. This business travel growth and the ways in and Asia in less than four years share is consistent with estimates of which this element of intercity travel (Global Crossing 2001). In other business travel by air and on high- demand is likely to respond to envi- words, ubiquitous, high-capacity, speed rail from other parts of the ronmental or economic constraints, it low-cost telecommunications tech- world: on the Tokaido Shinkansen line is useful to draw a distinction between nologies are fast becoming part of linking Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, trips made for recreational purposes, the environment in which intercity about 59% of the travel is for business and trips taken to visit distant friends travel is conducted. (Doi and Shibata 1996). In develop- or family members. ing countries, the share of business travel is even higher; business travel- The development of such technology ers are estimated to constitute Vacation and recreational travel cur- networks can, in principle, either sub- between 70% to 75% of total air traf- rently accounts for a large share of stitute for some travel or spur the fic in China (Airfinance Journal 2001). total intercity travel generated from demand for new travel by facilitating the OECD countries. In the United the development and maintenance of States such travel accounts for about long-distance social and economic rela- Business trips tend to be shorter in a third of total intercity travel and tionships. The empirical evidence sug- duration than nonbusiness trips; a 20% of air travel. Although data for gests that the latter effect seems to large number of them are completed vacation/recreational (V/R) travel are dominate the former. A 1997 empirical within a day. Also, a large fraction of difficult to obtain, indications are that study on the impact of telecommuni- total business trips are made by a few rising incomes and demographics cations on travel by Mokhtarian and travelers who travel frequently. contribute to sustained high growth Salomon (1997) found that “the pre- Estimates from the United States, for in V/R travel. V/R travel is directly ponderance of evidence suggests that example, suggest that 8% of passen- related to levels of disposable

www.wbcsdmobility.org 5-6 mobility 2001

incomes, and aggregate demand for has attempted to fly from New York Much of the world, especially the V/R travel is related strongly to levels City to Miami at Christmastime, or developed world, enjoys extensive of prosperity. Societies that are more drive on the usually free-flowing main intercity roadway networks. The prosperous, such as those of the A6 route between Paris and Lyon on extent to which residents of devel- OECD, generate more V/R trips than the days that the traditional French oped countries rely on the auto to less prosperous developing countries. summer vacation begins and ends, is meet their intercity travel needs obvi- Further, within any particular region, familiar with this phenomenon. ously depends not just on the avail- V/R travel booms in good economic ability of a highly developed road times and suffers in recessions. network but also on the availability of Visiting friends and relatives (VFR) is a autos to use on it. Thus, the demand major component of nonbusiness for intercity auto travel has grown In addition to rising incomes, the travel across the world. US estimates with the level of motorization of the greying of the population in the suggest that such travel constitutes population. OECD countries also contributes to about one-third of all intercity trips high growth in V/R travel. The retir- (US DOT, BTS 1997b).5 VFR travel ing baby-boomer generation — a shares some characteristics with busi- Just as intercity travel is rarely the pri- substantial population with ample ness travel and some with leisure trav- mary motivation for household auto disposable income and free time — el. First, as with business trips, desti- purchase decisions, intercity passen- will create the perfect market for V/R nations are usually predetermined. ger travel needs have rarely been the travel. However, costs do affect the mode of primary motivation for intercity high- travel — driving versus flying or tak- way construction. The extensive inter- ing the train — and the frequency of state highway system in the United V/R travelers exhibit a very different trips. VFR travel follows in the wake of States was originally proposed as a set of behaviors from business travel- migration/change of residence: every network of strategic high-capacity ers. Fundamentally, they are more immigrant generates a continuing long-distance connections, justified responsive to changes in costs than flow of VFR travel to friends and rela- by national defense considerations. In are business travelers. Costs often tives left behind. Current labor trends other countries, the construction pro- affect the choice of mode for V/R that are leading to increasing global- grams were more frequently based travel: cheaper, slower modes may be ization of labor markets — free labor on economic and national integration favored over faster, more expensive markets in the EU, the importation of motives. The United States, Western choices, although segmentation of professionals into the Middle East, Europe, and Japan built extensive airfares has allowed airlines to serve and large-scale immigration of IT pro- intercity motorway networks in the both recreational and business travel- fessionals from Asia to the United decades following World War II, a ers. V/R travelers even exhibit consid- States and Europe — are leading construction program motivated in erable flexibility in destination choice. drivers of demand for increased air part by the need to replace or Vacation destinations do compete travel. upgrade roadway infrastructure that with each other. Paris competes with had been destroyed during the war Rome and they both compete with a or had deteriorated in the years beach resort in the Caribbean or a ski AUTO immediately following. In the devel- resort in Switzerland. Transportation oping world, freight considerations costs influence these decisions. Many Although the auto accounts for a frequently drive construction of inter- vacations formerly taken at the local large proportion of total intercity city highway networks. beach resort were replaced by trips to trips, its use for intercity travel is usu- Europe following the emergence of ally a byproduct of a person’s deci- post-deregulation cheap fares in the sions to own an auto primarily for Trends in intercity auto travel raise United States. As incomes increase, local use. Intercity travel is rarely the many of the same sustainability con- people spend a greater proportion of primary factor driving auto purchase cerns as do local auto travel, with their income on leisure, and V/R trav- decisions by households. Available regard to safety, energy use, and CO2 el is no exception; travelers make data from the Netherlands indicate emissions. However, there are some choices in favor of faster, farther, that intercity travel accounted for less important differences. For instance, more comfortable leisure travel as than 5% of total auto trips and about since much of intercity auto travel their incomes increase. 10% of total auto travel (measured in takes place in regions with sparse passenger-kilometers) in that country. population and (generally) low abso- Similarly, data from the United States lute levels of traffic, local air pollution V/R travel tends to be highly season- indicate that intercity travel accounted and noise pollution are of less con- al, with peaks corresponding to com- for 8% of auto passenger-kilometers cern except at the points where these mon vacation times such as the sum- (US DOT, BTS 1997b; ORNL 1995). intercity trips begin and end. There mer. These strong seasonal peaks are other significant differences relat- often push against the capacity of the ed to disruption in the natural habi- transportation system. Anyone who tat, congestion, and financing.

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Because of significant differences in Intercity Highways Important population or economic mobility trends, these concerns differ Affect the Cities centers are often poorly connected to between the developed and develop- they Link the rest of the country. In some cases, ing worlds. In the following sections bridges are lacking, and ferries serve we highlight the mobility trends In most places the intercity road in their place. (The connectivity of relating to intercity auto travel in the network merges directly into the the highway network in Eastern developed and developing world sep- urban road network, providing a Europe and the former Soviet Union arately, and discuss the most signifi- seamless route for intercity auto is somewhat better than in the rest of cant sustainability concerns that arise. and bus travelers. As a result, at the developing world.) their beginning and end, intercity auto and bus trips are susceptible Intercity Auto Travel in the to all of the congestion of urban The intercity road infrastructure that Developed World travel. Autos and buses making does exist is frequently of poor quali- intercity trips both contribute to ty. Design and construction are often Intercity motorway links in the devel- and suffer from problems such as deficient, and management of traffic oped world generally do not suffer congestion and air pollution. is often inadequate, resulting in poor from capacity problems once travel- Usually intercity trips constitute control of trucks with excessive axle ers drive beyond the congestion of only a small proportion of total loads. Maintenance and upgrades are large cities. There are some important trips — thus suffering more than often neglected because of funding exceptions, however, such as the they contribute to congestion — constraints. For example, on roads in heavily urbanized Northeast corridor in major urban regions. However, hilly or mountainous terrain with in the United States. Although many intercity travel may well consti- inadequate climbing lanes, under- intercity links carry a significantly tute a significant proportion of powered trucks may cause temporary higher portion of truck traffic than do total traffic passing through small backups of traffic. typical urban links, for the most part towns and villages. In situations they are adequately dimensioned to when the road system is not lim- handle prevailing traffic levels. Unlike ited-access — as is common in More generally, the roads are rarely many urban roads, intercity motor- the developing world — such designed to be high-speed or highways have not had to confront signif- traffic is often a significant safety capacity. Congestion is more likely to icant travel demand growth induced and environmental concern. be an issue than in the developed by unexpectedly strong land world. Although intercity traffic vol- use–transport interactions. umes are generally low, they are In general, significant new additions climbing with economic development Congestion may occur on selected to the intercity networks of devel- and rising motorization levels. On facilities that are heavily used for vaca- oped countries are becoming rare. many links traffic is increasing to lev- tion or recreation trip purposes, par- These networks are mostly built out, els that cannot be served adequately ticularly in countries where such traffic providing a connection between by existing networks. For instance, exhibits extremely sharp peaking major population and economic cen- travel times on the 97-kilometer characteristics. In France, for example, ters. In small and densely populated Mumbai Pune highway in India intercity links between Mediterranean countries (e.g., Belgium), there is reached approximately four hours by tourist destinations and major popula- very little available land left on which the 1990s because of congestion. tion centers are highly congested in to build major new intercity roads. August because many people take Finally, groups opposed to new high- vacations at that time. Similarly, way construction are adept at apply- Accordingly, many developing and capacity can be an issue at times of ing political pressure to stop such emerging countries have a backlog of peak demand in particular corridors at projects, although such pressures are intercity road construction projects, the interface between urban and generally felt more strongly in urban the cost of which far exceeds local intercity networks. For example, it is than in intercity settings, because of financing capabilities. In some cases, common for residents of Greece to the significantly larger numbers of countries rely on overseas develop- visit their ancestral villages during people affected. ment assistance through bilateral major holidays such as Easter. At the agreements or loans from internation- end of the holiday, the large number al lending agencies such as the World Intercity Auto Travel in the of people returning to Athens at near- Bank. Private financing is increasingly Developing World ly the same time create very long seen as an attractive option, through vehicle queues on both the urban The situation with regard to intercity build-operate-transfer (BOT) or similar motorways and the intercity facilities roads and automobile use is quite dif- schemes. For instance, a new six-lane that connect to them. ferent outside the developed world. expressway financed on a BOT basis Roadway networks are generally less using a 30-year toll concession is extensive and of lower quality than being constructed to enhance capaci- those found in the developed world. ty in the Mumbai Pune corridor in

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India mentioned above. Some coun- lations living near the planned con- where it fills the riverbeds and leads tries (e.g., Mexico) have constructed struction. Environmental impacts of to extensive flooding and damage. significant lengths of intercity road- road construction are being more way under private financing schemes. widely recognized and more thor- The conditions required for such pro- oughly studied and mitigated. These BUS jects to be both financially interesting include, among others, disruption of to a private group and economically local human populations, damage to Bus travel, combining low speeds and interesting to a national government natural wildlife habitats, and physical minimal privacy with low cost and are not always met, however (Gómez- consequences associated with the widespread access, is widely consid- Ibáñez and Meyer 1993). construction itself. Although environ- ered an “inferior good.” Buses are mental impacts are probably most used extensively when incomes are severe when new highways penetrate low and replaced by other means — Among the most significant sustain- hitherto rural regions, virgin forests, autos that offer privacy and flexibility, ability concerns related to intercity and remote mountain areas, they can and rail and air that are faster — as auto travel in the developing world also be a concern even in more incomes increase. Thus the bus is not are the social and environmental developed areas. a very important means of intercity costs of road construction. In the travel in the developed world. Bus’s past, the few road projects in devel- share of trips in Western Europe has oping countries were designed and One example is the city of Baguio, declined by close to 50% in the last built almost exclusively on the basis located in the mountainous north- 20 years (European Commission of engineering and cost considera- central area of Luzon Island. It is the 2000). In the United States and tions, with minimal weight given to second largest city in the Philippines Canada, bus’s share of intercity trips is environmental and social impacts. north of Manila. Road connections marginal (US DOT, BTS 1997b; Leore Under pressure from international between Baguio and the rest of the 1991). Unfortunately, outside the lending agencies and some national country have long been a problem developed world, a systematic study governments, these concerns are because of the combination of steep of trends in bus use is undermined by receiving increased attention. It is fair and unstable terrain through which the paucity of data. Indeed, even in to say that this attention is still not as the roads must pass. Road construc- the developed world, available data institutionalized as it is in the devel- tion disturbs the natural compaction do not separate urban bus travel from oped world, but progress is being of the soil and accelerates the defor- intercity travel. Figure 5-3 shows made. Road planning is becoming estation of the surrounding areas. trends in bus use across the world, more participatory, for example, During the rainy season, eroded soil using what data are available.6 including inputs from the local popu- is washed down to the coastal areas,

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The majority of all intercity passenger-kilometers traveled by bus are outside the developed world. Much of this travel is concentrated in China, India, and the countries of Africa and Latin America, which do not have high incomes, widespread auto ownership, or well-developed passenger rail systems. The bus remains an important source of mobility, especially for the poorest, everywhere in the developing world. The drop in total bus travel in the countries of the former Soviet Union over the last 10 years reflects a drop in overall intercity travel. In Russia, it is estimated that 60% of all intercity trips are presently made using buses (Nikoulichev 1998). It is expected that the bus will continue to play an important role in Latin America, India, China, and Africa in the coming decades, despite forecasts of rising motorization and increasing incomes. Currently, passenger rail is an impor- share of 25% of passenger-kilometers tant source of mobility in Asia and in 1997. Rail had a market share of Europe. Figure 5-4 shows that about 20% in China and 18% in the former Most (if not all) intercity buses operate 70% of global rail travel takes place Soviet Union. Trains are still an impor- on diesel fuel. When well designed, in non-OECD countries, most of it tant source of mobility in Eastern efficiently maintained, and operating concentrated in India, China, and the Europe and many countries of the at high load factors, buses have the countries of the former Soviet Union. former Soviet Union, though their potential to be among the most ener- In the developed world, rail is con- role has diminished in the last gy-efficient means of intercity trans- centrated primarily in Japan and decade. Low incomes place auto port. Indeed, buses can be as emis- Western Europe. There is little interci- ownership and air travel out of reach sion-efficient as the most efficient pas- ty passenger rail travel in Africa, the for a majority of the residents of senger trains; however, the buses used Australian continent, or the Americas. these societies, and for them rail is outside the OECD are likely to be the superior form of available intercity older, badly maintained (with both travel. In addition, rail serves an factors leading to lower fuel efficien- The level of mobility that rail pro- important social role in terms of cies), and more polluting. As a conse- vides, and its implications for sustain- employment: World Bank data sug- quence, intercity buses in the develop- able mobility, vary widely across the gest that the railways (including both ing world often operate with relatively globe. In non-OECD countries, rail the freight and passenger divisions) high CO2 intensity, even though they plays a crucial role in promoting of India, China, and Russia provide operate at generally high load factors. mobility but faces critical economic employment for about 6.3 million Indeed, upgrading the entire bus fleet and environmental sustainability workers (World Bank 2001b). in the developing world to modern dilemmas. In the OECD countries, rail fuel-efficient OECD standards would provides an environmentally sustain- be a relatively inexpensive (though able and important source of mobili- However, the level of mobility provid- institutionally challenging) and signifi- ty, but its financial sustainability is ed by rail across the developing cant step toward global sustainable often in doubt even in the OECD world is not uniform. For instance, mobility. countries. 1997 data indicate that speeds on Indian Railways average between 18 kilometers per hour for the slowest Rail in the Developing World RAIL passenger trains and 48 kilometers Trains provide 871 billion passenger- per hour for the fastest trains (Indian Well-managed passenger rail systems kilometers of intercity transportation Railways 2001). In addition, most of have the potential to be a very effi- in India, China, and Russia alone, and these rail systems are operated by cient provider of sustainable mobility. serve a vital social and mobility role national governments, and are not At its best, rail is far more energy-effi- in many countries in the developing economically self-sufficient. Though cient than the auto or aircraft and world. Rail is a dominant source of passenger rail covers operating slightly more efficient than the bus. intercity mobility in India, with a expenses in Russia and China, passen-

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ger fares in India are heavily cross- across rail systems, Indian Railways Railways operated 42% of its passen- subsidized by high freight rates.7 has experienced a number of very ger-kilometers in 1997 under electric High staffing levels are partially serious accidents in the past decade, traction, only about 21% of the responsible for this subsidy require- including several collisions with casu- Indian Railway network is electrified. ment: Indian Railways incurred a alties in the hundreds (Fry 2001). Diesel systems are heavier and less wage bill of US$2.6 billion in 1997 energy-efficient than electricity for their 1.58 million employees, (though transmission losses in elec- which was equal to about 43% of Old infrastructure and equipment, tricity transmission can obviate much their gross revenue (Indian Railways combined with inadequate mainte- of this advantage). Further, electricity 2001). World Bank data measures of nance, can severely affect the energy offers at least the possibility of zero productivity indicate that the biggest efficiency of rail and increase pollu- carbon generation. railways are also among the least pro- tion. Partially full trains, sleeper and ductive. For instance, the Indian, diner cars needed to accommodate Rail in the Developed World Chinese, and Russian railroads long-distance journeys, frequent loco- employed 25, 33, and 12 employees motive idling, poor maintenance of Japan and the countries of Western per kilometer of track compared to track and locomotives, and poor aero- Europe together account for over 8 per kilometer in Japan and between dynamic design, all reduce energy 95% of the total passenger-kilometers 6 to 8 per kilometer of track in most efficiency. Although precise data are traveled by rail among the OECD Western European countries (World not available, anecdotal information countries. Figure 5-5, which presents Bank 2001b). suggests that, in many instances, rail trends in rail ridership across the in the developing world operates at developed world, suggests that this energy-efficiency levels that are signifi- concentration is consistent with rider- In the entire developing world, rail cantly higher than what is technologi- ship trends in the past 10 years. infrastructure is old, undercapitalized, cally possible. Market share of rail in these countries and inadequately maintained, result- has remained constant between 6% ing in immediate implications for sys- and 10% in Western Europe and at tem safety. The most high-profile case Finally, though the highest-density 33% in Japan.8 is that of Indian Railways. Though dif- lines are electrified, much of the rail ferences in reporting and classification system still runs using diesel technol- standards make it difficult to compare ogy. For instance, though Indian

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One of the most interesting elements New High-Speed Rail sidering its implications for currently of rail in the OECD is that it is increas- Technology successful rail services elsewhere, ingly powered by electricity. European especially in Europe. If the deregula- statistics suggest that 48% of the track The technology underlying cur- tion of the markets for air travel in in the 15 EU countries is electrified rent high-speed rail (HSR) sys- Europe currently underway leads to (ranging from 2% in Ireland to 75% in tems is little different from that lower airfares — as was the case in France). In a few cases much of the used in conventional electric- the United States — there is a possi- energy is even generated using emis- powered trains. The most signifi- bility that air travel will be able to sion-free sources, such as nuclear ener- cant advance in rolling-stock capture some market share away gy in France.9 Though this is not true design involves the use of tilting from rail in the longer rail markets. broadly, and although most of the car bodies to increase passenger Similarly, in the unlikely case that electricity for rail travel is still generat- comfort on high-speed turns. prices of gasoline — currently kept at ed using coal (in Germany, Italy, Other design changes are aimed high levels in most of Western Europe Japan), rail in the OECD is more envi- at reducing weight or lowering by taxation policies — fall, autos may ronmentally benign than air and auto. air resistance. A more significant take some of rail’s market away, difference between high-speed especially for the shorter trips. and conventional rail relates to Rail in the United States and track requirements. Operation at Canada speeds greater than 240 kilome- Rail’s Link to Cities In contrast to Western Europe and ters per hour often requires spe- Rail stations usually are located in the Japan, rail ridership in the United cially designed track with con- heart of the central city. This is the States and Canada is insignificant, crete foundations, and wider case in cities as diverse as New York, both in absolute terms and as a share track spacing and broader Paris, and Delhi. Downtown stations of total intercity travel: estimates curves than those required by that are conveniently located for from the 1995 American Travel conventional trains. Thus opera- large numbers of travelers can be Survey suggest that less than 1% of tion at speeds greater than 240 very significant assets — both in intercity trips in the United States is kilometers per hour usually terms of facilitating mobility general- made on rail. It is worth noting that involves construction of new ly, and specifically the ability of rail to this is true despite the fact that both track on new rights of way, compete with air and auto. the United States and Canada have though slower services can also well-developed rail networks that run on such tracks. used to be a significant source of pas- On the other hand, when new rail From a technological stand- senger mobility. Indeed, rail ridership connections are being planned, the point, the most interesting in these countries has fallen signifi- “last mile” into a city can be a signifi- development in high-speed cantly from the high levels of about cant issue. The costs of right-of-way ground transportation is the 50 years ago: it is estimated that in in urban settings have deterred many emergence of magnetic levita- 1939, rail had a market share of 15% rail projects. (The rail networks in tion or maglev technology. of all intercity trips in the United Chicago are not connected, and Maglev technology uses mag- States (Eno 1994). In the United Boston’s two rail stations — North netic forces to provide noncon- States these trends have coincided and South — have never been tact suspension, guidance, and with others discussed elsewhere in linked.) The cost of building rail lines propulsion at speeds up to 500 this chapter: development of a high- and stations in cities limits the poten- kilometers per hour. No maglev quality road network, post-WW II tial for significant new rail network systems are currently in opera- prosperity that saw a steady rise in developments. tion, but two systems based on incomes and auto ownership, and the the technology have been tested development of the domestic US air extensively. One has been devel- network. Cheap gas and high levels The magnitude of the advantage oped by the Magnetschnellbahn of auto ownership favored the auto offered by a downtown station GmbH group as part of the over rail for short-distance trips and a depends, however, on the structure TRANSRAPID program in well-developed, efficient, and relative- of the urban region — the denser it is Germany; another has been ly cheap air transport system has dis- and the more important the down- developed by Japanese Railways advantaged rail for long-distance town is, the bigger the significance of as part of the Linear Express ini- trips. As a consequence, in the United a rail station downtown. Thus, in low- tiative in Japan. It is possible States, the relevance of rail is limited density cities where the downtown is that an operational maglev sys- almost solely to the congested not the focus of business activities, tem will be built in the coming Northeast corridor. such as newer US cities like Phoenix years. At present there is interest and Los Angeles, the downtown sta- in both the United States and tion is not a very significant advan- China in developing an opera- The US and Canadian experience tage. Indeed, in the sprawling Los tional maglev line. merits attention, and it is worth con- Angeles metropolitan area served by

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High-Speed Rail Services What Is the Potential of HSR? A significant development for the rail Evidence suggests that the markets in which HSR systems are likely to be the most systems in the developed world is the effective are characterized by: emergence of high-speed rail (HSR) services that are competitive with or Rail travel times that are competitive with both air and auto. Auto usually dom- even superior to air and auto. These inates rail for trips shorter than 150 kilometers. Air travel usually dominates rail services are in operation currently in for trips over 650 kilometers (see Figure 5-6). HSR has the potential to be com- Western Europe and Japan, and there petitive for trips of intermediate distance. is interest in developing HSR services in other locations, including several A large number of center-city-to-center-city trips. For such trips, rail, which corridors in the United States and usually serves central cities directly, is often significantly superior to air in terms Asia (e.g., Korea, Taiwan, and China). of terminal access.

Relatively expensive/inconvenient air and road travel. Services using “conventional” rail technology operate as fast as 300 In addition, HSR is economically most attractive in circumstances when: kilometers per hour. The last two decades have seen progress toward Right-of-way is inexpensive. the development of an alternative technology based on magnetic levita- The terrain is friendly, requiring little or no bridging or tunneling and permit- tion (maglev technology), which in ting wide-radius curves. tests shows promise of achieving speeds of as high as 500 kilometers Network effects exist. A segment that is part of a larger system can generate per hour (see feature box). traffic in addition to the origin-destination traffic between its two ends.

The most significant impediments to as many as six commercial airports, competitive disadvantage relative to the establishment of HSR corridors rail serving the region predominantly air in terms of ease of access. are likely to be related more to ques- from downtown Los Angeles faces a tions of demand than to technology. HSR systems are very expensive to

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build and operate. For instance, the the environmental impacts of air riers in the market. The surviving 412 kilometer Seoul-Pusan HSR sys- transportation, aviation’s effects on carriers established hub and spoke tem in South Korea is estimated to cities, and infrastructure constraints networks, whose structure is have cost about US$14.5 billion dol- on future growth. described below. Average fares fell lars — i.e., about $34 million per substantially relative to inflation and kilometer (KTX 2001). In addition, the volume of air travel grew enor- almost all HSR lines need operating Regulatory Environment mously. Competitive pressures subsidies. Evidence from existing forced carriers to reduce costs. HSR networks, as well as research The airline industry is profoundly across the globe, suggests that HSR influenced by the regulatory structure requires a particular set of geograph- under which it developed. In most Regulatory authorities around the ic and economic conditions to be countries this regulatory structure world watched developments in the effective (see feature box). Corridors dates back to the infancy of the United States with cautious interest. where such a favorable set of condi- industry and reflects a perception at Although the general trend around tions exists are limited at present, that time that the industry needed to the world is toward a loosening of though it is possible that some of be protected and fostered. The desire the regulatory restrictions on airline the features of the economic and to support the growth of a national conduct, few nations are willing to competitive environment will airline industry was based largely on go as far as quickly as the United change over time. a sense of its importance to economic States. Most have opted for a more growth and national security. measured pace of liberalization. National pride also played a role, as AIR demonstrated by references to a country’s “flag” air carrier. The regu- The international framework for the Air travel is the fastest growing latory regimes that emerged out of regulation of air travel was estab- means of travel in every part of the these concerns often subjected deci- lished in the 1949 Chicago world, and every indication suggests sions regarding where a carrier could Convention. Signatories refrained at that it will continue to grow at fly and what fares it could charge to that time from setting up a multilat- impressive rates. For instance, fore- the review of regulatory authorities. eral system for the regulation of air casts of air travel made by Airbus Firms seeking to enter the industry travel between nations, specifying Industrie and Boeing, the two major were required to seek regulatory instead that air services between any manufacturers of commercial jet air- approval. Existing carriers were pair of countries would be governed craft, indicate that global air travel shielded from competition in an by a bilateral agreement between alone will continue to grow at a rate effort to assure their stability and eco- those countries. The system of bilat- of just under 5% a year for the next nomic security. In exchange, they eral agreements that emerged was 20 years (Airbus 2000; Boeing 2000). were required to provide services that the result of extensive negotiations These numbers are consistent with were unprofitable, or only marginally aimed in each instance at assuring an the official planning estimates devel- profitable, but that were thought to equitable division of benefits between oped by US and European authorities be important for economic, social, or the residents, businesses, and flag (e.g., US DOT, FAA 2000). political reasons. A nearly universal carriers of the two countries. The out- regulatory feature was a prohibition comes of these negotiations were against the provision of domestic air highly variable, reflecting the domes- The air transportation system makes service by foreign-owned carriers. The tic and foreign policies of the various a unique contribution to global ability of a foreign carrier to transport countries and the relative bargaining mobility. No other mode of trans- passengers between two points with- positions of the two nations. portation offers comparable range or in the boundaries of another country speed. It would be difficult to imag- is referred to as “cabotage.” ine the global economy existing in Following the deregulation of its anything like its present form with- domestic airline industry, the United out the support of the air transporta- In 1978, the United States decided States adopted an international policy tion system. to end regulation of its domestic air- promoting “open skies,” a system in line industry, although it retained which carriers would be free to estab- the prohibition against foreign own- lish new services and to vary frequen- This section addresses a wide range ership. Over the next few years the cies and later fares, unhindered by of issues relating to the evolution and structure of regulatory controls over the regulatory restrictions of the bilat- future growth of the air transporta- pricing and entry was eliminated. A eral system. Over the succeeding tion system. We consider the regula- substantial restructuring of the years the United States succeeded in tory framework for the airline indus- industry ensued. Many new airlines liberalizing the provisions of many of try, the evolution of the hub and were launched. Few survived. Some its bilateral agreements. spoke system, the role of air cargo, small carriers grew substantially. trends in aircraft size and technology, Mergers reduced the number of car-

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In 2001, a number of changes to the General Aviation international regulatory regime are being discussed that could have pro- General aviation (GA), the term applied by the US Federal Aviation Administration to found implications for the structure of privately operated aircraft, is the aerial equivalent of the personal-use auto. This cate- the world’s air transportation system. gory encompasses a number of different aircraft types, including single-engine pis- One such change would involve the ton-powered aircraft, twin-engine piston-powered aircraft, and smaller turboprops emergence of multilateral agreements and turbofans.13 as a replacement for the present bilateral system. Such agreements could Globally, the general aviation market has declined in recent years. From 1990 grow out of negotiations between a through 1997 there was a 10% reduction in aircraft operating hours (GAMA 2000, multinational trading block such as p. 14). During this period, North American aviation hours fell by approximately 8%. NAFTA or the EC and either individual In contrast, however, the Asia Pacific region saw a doubling of aviation hours. countries or other trading blocks. A second potential change could North America accounts for a disproportionate share of global GA activity. In 1997 it involve removal of prohibitions represented 64% of total general aviation hours flown (41,990,000). On average in against cabotage. A third and still the 1990s, North America had five times the aircraft and logged 4.5 times the avia- more radical possibility would be a tion hours logged by Europe. Europe had three times the aircraft and logged 1.2 decision to end the special treatment times the aviation hours logged in the Asia Pacific sector. of air transportation and instead treat it simply as another service to fall General aviation has evolved to fill a number of significant niche roles in business under the provisions of the General use, including provision of high-end corporate transportation, ferrying personnel and Agreement on Tariffs and Trade materials to remote production sites poorly served by scheduled air service, support- (GATT). ing overnight package delivery service, and agricultural operations.

As a source of mobility, general aviation plays a minuscule role overall. The passen- Although it is impossible at this point ger-kilometers logged on general aviation aircraft are dwarfed by those logged on to say with confidence that any of the scheduled air transportation system. Because of their smaller size and more limit- these changes is likely to occur, all ed carrying capacity, however, they account for a disproportionately larger fraction are currently being discussed, and of total aircraft movements. any could result in a restructuring of the international air transportation There is little evidence of a major trend in aviation away from mass transportation system as profound as that which and toward personal-use aircraft. The evolution occurring in surface transportation occurred in the United States follow- seems unlikely to take place in the air anytime soon. Despite advances in technology, ing deregulation. aircraft continue to have ownership and operating costs that place them beyond the reach of most individuals. Evolution of Hub and Spoke Operations The efficiencies associated with a hub in the United States and in many A distinguishing feature of modern and spoke operation arise from the places around the world. airline operation is its reliance on the fact that any particular spoke route hub and spoke system. This system out of a hub will carry not just pas- involves the scheduling of a large sengers traveling between the hub Hub and spoke operations existed in number of flights within a short peri- and the spoke airport, but also a the United States before deregulation od of time into a centrally located air- large number of other passengers of the airline industry, but they port. After a short period of time traveling between the spoke airport reached their full state of develop- designed to allow passengers to dis- and other spoke airports. The ment only after US carriers acquired embark and connect to other flights, increased passenger volumes on the freedom to enter and exit routes. a large number of flights is scheduled spoke route make it possible for the Hub and spoke operations require to depart to a variety of different des- hubbing carrier to offer more fre- coordinated scheduling across a large tinations. The central airport is the quent service with larger aircraft than number of routes, and such coordina- hub, and the routes between the hub would otherwise be possible. Across tion is easier to achieve when carriers and other points are the spokes. Such the entire system, it is possible by are free to choose which routes they a collection of incoming and outgo- using a hub and spoke operation to will serve and how often. ing flights is called a “bank.” Many connect efficiently a far, far larger such banks of flights will be sched- number of routes than would be pos- uled at a hub airport over the course sible with direct point-to-point ser- Relationship between intercity of a day. This system is familiar to vice. The economics of this system air passenger and cargo opera- most people who have traveled by air are so compelling that it has become tions. Many of the aircraft in sched- within the United States and else- the dominant form of operation with- uled commercial air passenger ser- where. vice also transport cargo. This is

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especially likely to be the case with ing from 15 up to perhaps 50 seats. Trends in Aircraft Size wide-body aircraft, for which the Recently, with the introduction of so- The past two decades have seen two below-passenger deck cargo capacity called regional jets, turbofans have contradictory trends in aircraft size. typically exceeds passenger luggage begun to replace turboprop aircraft On the one hand, manufacturers requirements by a large margin. at the lower end of the commercial have introduced increasingly larger Most major passenger airlines thus aircraft size range. Thus, in discussing aircraft with ever-increasing seating have sizable air cargo businesses. changes in aircraft technology and capacities. The upper end of the size Although such businesses often make fuel efficiency, it is appropriate to range has increased steadily over the noticeable contributions to the carri- focus on turbofan-powered aircraft. period from 1960 to the present, ers’ bottom lines, they are a byprod- with the proposed Airbus A380 capa- uct of their main business of provid- ble of seating about 550 passengers. ing passenger transportation, and are Using energy intensity (EI) as the fig- On the other hand, for at least the generally managed accordingly.10 ure of merit relative to total emis- past 20 years the greatest growth in For the most part, scheduling and sions, the most convenient unit of the commercial aircraft fleet has operational decisions are dominated technology for discussion purposes is occurred at the lower end of the size by the requirements of the passenger the system represented by a com- range, with the result that over time operation. plete aircraft. A combination of tech- the average number of seats per air- nological and operational improve- craft in commercial service has ments has led to a reduction in the EI remained stable or tended to decline. For a long time, there has been a lim- of the entire US fleet of more than ited number of aircraft dedicated 60% between 1971 and 1998, aver- exclusively to cargo service. aging about 3.3% per year. In con- The relative growth in the use of Historically these have been older air- trast, total revenue passenger-kilome- smaller aircraft in domestic service craft that have been retired from pas- ters (RPK) have grown by 330%, or results from efforts by air carriers to senger service and converted for 5.5% per year over the same period. meet the service demands of their cargo use, although this is by no Long-range aircraft are approximately passengers. Airline scheduling deci- means exclusively the case. Some 5% more fuel-efficient than short- sions are often driven by the require- have been in the hands of carriers range aircraft, because they carry ments of the lucrative business travel specializing in air freight. Others have more passengers over a flight spent market. Business travelers are less been operated by passenger airlines primarily at the cruise condition. price-sensitive than nonbusiness trav- as part of their cargo operations.11 elers, but more exacting in their demands for conveniently scheduled Lee et al. (2001) have presented a departure times and a wide range of One noteworthy trend in air freight physical model and historically based return options to accommodate last- has been the rapid growth of inte- statistical models that together minute changes of plan. In addition, grated carriers such as Federal explain the relationships among tech- the general movement in the United Express, UPS, and DHL that operate nology, cost, and emissions perfor- States toward hub and spoke opera- both air and ground networks in a mance. Their analysis suggests that tions led to growth in service on rela- coordinated manner to provide expe- 57% of the reductions in energy tively thin spoke routes connecting dited door-to-door delivery ser- intensity during the period second-tier metropolitan areas to air- vices.12 Although their combined 1959–1995 were due to improve- line hubs. The net results of these fac- fleets are small relative to those of the ments in engine efficiency, 22% tors favor the operation of smaller air- major passenger airlines, they are resulted from increases in aerody- craft at higher-service frequencies growing rapidly and can be expected namic efficiency, 17% were due to rather than larger jets at the lower to become a significant element of more efficient use of aircraft capacity, frequencies that would be needed to the commercial airline industry in the and 4% resulted from other changes, accumulate sufficient passengers to years ahead. such as increased aircraft size. The fill them. authors combined an understanding of historical trends and of the pace of Trends in Aircraft Technology future changes in technology and The evolution of the international air and Fuel Efficiency operation to estimate the impacts of transportation system followed a dif- Since their introduction in the late these changes on operating and capi- ferent path. Frequency of service is 1950s, jet-powered aircraft have tal costs. These historically based pro- less of a consideration on these come to dominate the fleets of the jections indicate that typical in-use routes. As trips become longer, the world’s commercial airlines. By the aircraft energy intensity can be likelihood of being able to make a 1980s virtually all of the large aircraft expected to decline at a rate of 1.2% single-day round trip decreases. For in commercial fleets relied on turbojet to 2.2% per year, a pace of change such trips, the possible advantages of or turbofan propulsive technology. that is not sufficient to counter the frequent service become minor com- Turboprop propulsion was limited to projected annual 4% to 6% growth pared to the overall duration of the smaller aircraft with capacities rang- in demand for air transport. trip, the schedule disruption caused

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by time-zone changes, and the have the range and reliability for At this altitude the effect of aircraft inconveniences of international travel transoceanic operation. As a result, exhaust on global warming is two to formalities. Traveler preferences growth in the international air fleet four times greater than if the exhaust regarding arrival and departure times has shifted to some extent toward were CO2 alone. In contrast, the may interact with required flight smaller aircraft. overall contribution from all fossil- times and noise-related restrictions on fuel–based activities is estimated to late-night or early-morning arrivals to be about 1.5 times that of the effect limit feasible departure times to one Some observers express concern over of the CO2 alone. In other words, the or two limited intervals during the the greater use of smaller aircraft. impact of burning fossil fuels at high day. In such circumstances, airlines Generally, energy use and operating altitudes is approximately twice the rarely offer the frequencies one sees costs per seat decline as the size of impact of burning the same fuels at in short-haul service. the aircraft increases. Moreover, ground level (IPCC 1999). many potential constraints of the growth of air travel, such as noise The international air transportation exposure or overcrowded airports, Two related factors are responsible system was traditionally organized are more closely related to the num- for exacerbating the impact of emis- around a limited number of gateway ber of aircraft movements than to the sions at high altitudes: airports, typically located in large number of passengers transported. cities that were centers of internation- For these reasons some critics see the First, high-altitude emissions al business and trade. International movement toward smaller aircraft as and surface emissions interact flights from a variety of different ori- a sign of short-sighted market forces. with climate in different ways. gin points would converge on these Though consumer preferences and In particular, water vapor emit- locations; arriving passengers would current prices favor such high-fre- ted by aircraft combined with disembark and clear customs, and quency services on relatively smaller certain other components of those destined for other domestic aircraft, these services actively aircraft exhaust contributes to points would then transfer to the increase the two greatest operational the formation of contrails (visi- domestic air system for the remainder challenges to the airline industry: ble line clouds that form behind of their journey. The resulting opera- noise complaints and overcrowded aircraft flying in cold weather) tion resembled in some ways that of airports. and high-altitude clouds. These a hub and spoke system, although produce a cloud cover that with significant differences. Travel Impacts of Air Transportation inhibits the radiation of ground and departure time constraints limit- on the Global Environment heat back into space. High-alti- ed the opportunities for scheduling of tude emissions can also alter multiple banks connecting flights. The environmental effects of air travel atmospheric chemistry and The necessity of clearing customs and are highly significant because of a ozone levels. possibly resting after a long journey combination of many factors. First, meant that the connection process aviation accounts for a significant often proceeded at a slower pace fraction — estimates range between Second, aircraft engines emit than in most domestic air hubs. 8% and 12% — of transportation- many pollutants besides CO2 Concentration of passengers on a related carbon dioxide emissions (UN and the altitude at which these limited number of routes between 2000; IPCC 1999). Further, the rapid other pollutants are released the origin and destination countries growth forecast for aviation activity affects the dynamics of their facilitated the use of high-capacity, makes it among the fastest-growing passage through the atmo- long-range aircraft. sources of transportation-related CO2 sphere. In contrast to CO2, emissions. which can circulate within the atmosphere for 100 years or More recent trends in international more regardless of where it is air service have been away from gate- Second, significant though it is, avia- emitted, the residence times of ways and toward greater provision of tion’s share of CO2 emissions under- other pollutants such as soot point-to-point service to multiple des- states the impact of aviation activity and sulfur mass particles can be tinations. Presumably this shift on global climate change: emissions much longer when emitted at reflects an effort on the part of inter- from aviation activity have a dispro- high altitudes than on the national airlines to respond to their portionately large impact on global earth’s surface. In the case of passengers’ service demands, and a warming relative to comparable sur- soot and sulfur particles, for judgment that point-to-point service face emissions. Much of this impact is instance, the longer residence represents the most profitable interrelated to the high altitude at which times contribute to the national air service expansion oppor- aircraft emissions are injected into the enhanced formation of contrails tunity. It is facilitated by the introduc- atmosphere, typically 9 to 13 kilome- with global warming properties. tion of twin-engine aircraft such as ters above sea level into the upper the B-767, B-757, and A-330, which troposphere and lower stratosphere.

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Little attention has been paid thus far Ground access. In order to board cern over the environmental impacts to mitigating the impacts of green- an aircraft one must first travel to the of air transportation. house gas emissions from air trans- airport. And it is almost always neces- portation. Though the prospects of sary at the other end of the trip to reducing the impacts of aviation travel from the airport to one’s final Local air quality issues are focused on emissions through technology are as destination. Thus airports are signifi- the regional ozone production related yet uncertain, it is clear that there are cant traffic generators. to emissions of NOx, CO, and HC. In trade-offs. For instance, CO2 and H2O addition, soot emissions contribute to are produced by hydrocarbon fuel ambient particulate levels and SOx combustion and are directly related Airports typically offer a rich menu of emissions can contribute to acid rain. to aircraft fuel consumption. public transportation services, includ- While contributions to acid rain are Emissions of CO2 and H2O can be ing public and private buses. Airports considered small, particulate emis- reduced through improvements in are favorable environments for high- sions are gaining more importance as fuel efficiency. However, increasing quality public transportation since regions focus on ambient levels of engine fuel efficiency enhances the they have high densities of travelers. smaller-size particles, and on contri- prevalence of contrails, which also Most ground transportation to and butions by airports to this problem. contribute to global warming.14 from airports is connected to the Airport NOx, HC, and CO emissions, Similarly, NOx emissions become region’s public transportation system, which are primarily a combination of increasingly difficult to limit as engine although these linkages often provide aircraft-related and other ground temperatures and pressures are only limited service. The trip from a operations, are important contribu- increased — a common method for remote airport location to a city cen- tors to regional ozone levels. Figure improving engine efficiency. NOx ter can be long and slow, especially 5-7 compares the contributions of emissions can alter ambient ozone on a public transportation vehicle Kennedy and La Guardia airports levels. making local stops. The trip is likely around New York City to other major to be even longer and more arduous point sources in the region. Figure for travelers destined for points out- 5-8 shows current and projected con- Furthermore, even if it were possible side of the urban core. Increasingly, tributions from regional airports to to achieve dramatic improvement in such trips involve personal-use vehi- cities across the United States. Los the emissions characteristics of new cles — vehicles either owned by the Angeles airport is the second-largest aircraft, the relatively long life span traveler, rented, or hired for the par- industrial smog source in the Los and large capital cost of individual ticular trip (i.e., taxis). Angeles region. aircraft, and the resultant lag in the adoption of new technologies throughout the aviation fleet, neces- Impacts of air transportation on Regulation of aircraft emissions. sarily imply that a considerable period the local environment. In addi- Nonbinding international regulations of time would be required before the tion to its impacts on the global developed through the International effects of these changes would be felt environment, air transportation has Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on a large scale. Also, the impact of substantial localized impacts. Airline control fuel venting, smoke, HC, CO, any efficiency improvements in flight traffic is highly concentrated, with and NOx for several classes of sub- is diminished by fuel wasted in air- the result that a relatively small num- sonic aircraft engines. ICAO standards borne or ground travel delays or in ber of airports account for a very are formally instituted in US regula- flying partially empty aircraft. Further, large fraction of all commercial air tions as emissions standards. The we do not know the financial cost of traffic. There are emissions from air- European Union also conforms to change. craft that are idling on the runway, ICAO standards. Controls were (and taxiing, landing, or taking off, and still are) based on a landing-takeoff from those circling while waiting to (LTO) cycle that extends to an alti- Aviation’s Effects on Cities land. There are also substantial emis- tude of ~915 meters (3,000 feet), as Many of the most significant environ- sions from the ground transport of represented by specified times in mental sustainability concerns about passengers, freight, fuel, and food, operating modes defined by engine air travel arise because most airports and from other related ground activi- power setting. Emissions above 915 are located in or near major cities. ties, all of which combine to make a meters, where aircraft spend most Large numbers of urban residents are major airport one of the most signifi- time in flight, were not (and still are affected not only by the noise and cant point sources of pollution in the not) controlled. pollution from airplanes, but also by metropolitan area it serves. Airports the ground traffic generated by trav- expose surrounding neighborhoods elers coming and going from airports. to high levels of noise, which have Local, state, and federal agencies In the following sections we discuss significant effects on health, quality around the globe are all pushing for the effects of airports on nearby resi- of life, and real estate values. improvements in the environmental dents and their environments. Historically these localized impacts performance of aircraft, driven by have been the primary focus of con- concerns over local air quality and

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global climate issues. Elements of the aircraft particulate emissions. The Sweden and Switzerland have insti- ICAO Committee on Aviation proposed Kyoto Protocol to the tuted landing fees based on aircraft Environmental Protection (CAEP), an United Nations Framework NOx and HC emissions performance international regulatory body, have Convention on Climate Change at national airports. pressed for further stringency in NOx specifically requests that industrialized regulations. The proposed PM-2.5 countries reduce emissions from avia- regulations promulgated by the US tion bunker fuels. Further, local Aircraft noise. A recent survey by Environmental Protection Agency actions also have an impact on emis- the US Government Accounting constitute a potential restriction on sions decision-making. For example, Office (GAO 2000) found that noise

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is the single greatest environmental concern facing air carriers today (see Figure 5-9). Noise remains a major concern in spite of the fact that technological advances and regulatory actions have substantially decreased the number of people affected by aircraft noise. Noise restrictions continue to increase in both number and stringency, constraining aircraft operation and leading to reduced mobility (flight delays and capacity constraints), increased operating and capital costs, and increased ticket prices. Further, noise is often a principal focus for community groups and larger nongovernmental organizations that act to oppose airport construction and expansion.

ing annoyance from aircraft noise. It whereas the land between 55dB and A variety of technological and opera- is assumed in forming this measure, 65dB is typically used for other com- tional advances have reduced the for example, that operations occur- mercial and residential purposes.) average perceived noise from aircraft ring between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. are operation. There was a large reduc- twice as annoying as those occurring tion in noise levels in the late 1960s at other times of the day, due to As shown in Figure 5-10, the number and early 1970s as a result of the sleep disturbance and lower back- of people affected by aircraft noise in introduction of the turbofan engine. ground noise at night. It is currently the United States has significantly While the primary motivation for the believed by many that a DNL of 55dB decreased over the last 25 years. The use of turbofan engines was reduced is an “acceptable” intrusion on daily figure shows an estimate of the num- fuel consumption, lower noise was an life and is consistent with current EPA ber of people living within 55dB and important ancillary benefit. In the guidelines for acceptable noise expo- 65dB DNL areas around airports in 1980s and 1990s, changes have been sure for outdoor activities requisite to the United States as a function of slower and more evolutionary, with protect public health and welfare time. The noise exposure estimates increased bypass ratio engines, better with a reasonable margin of safety. for 65dB DNL from 1975 to 1996 are acoustic liner technology, and the Note however, that the World Health from various sources the FAA used to gradual introduction of other engi- Organization recently suggested that track people who were affected dur- neering changes. However, over the 50dB DNL is an appropriate level to ing that time. The estimate of the same period the average capacity of ensure no adverse impacts of noise.15 population exposed to 55dB DNL is aircraft models introduced has tended Further, as has been apparent in based on scaling from current popu- to increase. Larger aircraft require recent history, public perception of lation distributions around airports. higher-thrust engines that produce aviation noise impacts can change, The estimates and projections from more noise, offsetting some of the and is not always consistent with the 1998 to 2020 were calculated using technological gains made. At the guideline cited above. the FAA MAGENTA model. The large same time, however, the average reductions in affected population number of engines per aircraft in the shown in this figure resulted primarily fleet has dropped from 3.2 to 2.3, Federal assessments of noise impacts from three factors: 1) improved tech- which tends to reduce overall noise typically concentrate on those areas nology; 2) low-noise aircraft opera- levels (averages are weighted by num- with DNL greater than 65dB. tions enabled by advanced aircraft ber of aircraft in service in the fleet). However, although the number of control, navigation, and surveillance people highly annoyed is 4 times technology and advanced air traffic higher for 65dB relative to 55dB, the management technology (CNS/ATM); To assess the impact of noise from a number of people living within the and 3) phase-out of high-noise air- specific airport, it is more useful to 55dB contour can be 5 to 30 times craft as a result of regulatory action. consider an appropriate average of the number of people living within The noisiest aircraft made a signifi- the noise produced by the flight the 65dB contour. (Note that the cantly disproportionate impact on operations from that airport over a land area within 55dB is typically only noise, and regulation that helped to 24-hour period. One such measure is double that within the 65dB contour. phase them out of service in the the Day-Night Noise Level (DNL), a However, the airport itself occupies United States made a significant metric adopted by the FAA for assess- much of the space within 65dB, impact on lowering the level of noise

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around airports in the 1990s. When number of flights delayed by more especially in the United States and the US Congress enacted the ANCA than 15 minutes of scheduled gate Europe. One result of the rapid (Airport Noise Control Act) in 1990, departure and arrival times increased growth in air travel described above phased-out aircraft accounted for by 11% between 1995 and 1999, a has been that many of the busiest 55% of the US fleet but contributed period in which aircraft movements airports worldwide are presently to more than 90% of the total DNL grew by only 8% (Mead 2000). operating at close to capacity, at levels at airports. The phase-outs Cancellations during this time least at peak periods and oftentimes mandated by the 1990 legislation are increased by 68%. Overall, one in throughout the day. The hub and now complete in the United States, four flights was either canceled or spoke structure that increasingly and over the next 20 years, estimates delayed in 1999, with each delay characterizes most airline operations by the FAA suggest that reductions in averaging 50 minutes. Available data exacerbates this by concentrating affected population in the United for the years 2000 and 2001 suggest large flows of aircraft in and out of States will be small, since the current that all of these trends have grown hub airports. fleet is relatively young and further steadily worse. phase-outs are not currently planned. The roughly constant number of Much of the delay experienced in the affected people results from a balance The statistics are similar in Europe. In air transportation system is concen- between projected improvements in its 1999 Annual Report on Delays to trated in the busiest airports. The FAA technology and projected increases in Air Transport, the Central Office for found that 10 large US airports that flight operations. Delay Analysis of the European accounted for 31% of total enplane- Organization for the Safety of Air ments in 1999 accounted for 64% of Navigation reports that a 6% increase the flights delayed (US DOT, FAA Infrastructure Constraints in traffic between 1998 and 1999 2000).16 Similarly, the 10 busiest Inadequate infrastructure capacity is was accompanied by a 54% increase European airports (in terms of opera- presently both an immediate and a in the number of flights delayed over tions) accounted for 42% of the total long-term threat to air travel in North 15 minutes (EUROCONTROL 2000). flights delayed in the top 48 airports America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific (EUROCONTROL 2000). region. Capacity constraints at airports and in the airways are causing Much of this delay is attributed to increasing levels of delay. airport congestion. Airports are limit- The problem is expected to worsen. ed in the maximum number of oper- A survey conducted by the General ations they can handle in an hour. In Accounting Office of the 50 busiest In the United States, delays have addition, noise concerns limit night- US airports, depicted in Figure 5-11, been receiving high attention. The time operations at many airports, found that 13 of the airports were already operating at capacity and all but five of the 50 expect that they will be operating at full capacity within 10 years (GAO 2000).

Given present growth trends and the capacity constraints outlined above, a key question is whether the capacity of the airport system will expand to keep pace with demand. There are reasons to doubt whether this can be done. As a practical matter, it is often very difficult to build new capacity at congested airports. First, there may just not be any space. This is true of airports such as Washington’s National and New York’s La Guardia. Most often, however, local community groups actively oppose airport expansion because of noise and/or environmental concerns. Though noise concerns are the basis for the most significant opposition to airport expansion, they are not the only reasons.

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Runway projects at other airports decade — Kansai airport in Japan, limit exposure of surrounding resi- such as San Francisco International and Inchon airport in Korea — were dents to aircraft noise further face significant opposition from envi- built on expensively constructed expands land requirements. To find ronmental groups concerned about man-made islands. such sites, one must search far from the airport’s effects on San Francisco existing development. There is every Bay.17 Figure 5-12 shows that envi- reason to believe that these trends ronmental issues, including noise- These constraints on new airport will continue. related concerns, have led to indefi- development have resulted in a trend nite postponement or cancellation of toward the building of ever-larger plans to expand airport capacity at facilities located at ever-greater dis- In time, the growing difficulty of get- 12 of the 50 busiest US airports sur- tances from the center of the ting to the airport may limit growth veyed by the GAO. Indeed, of the metropolitan region. Knowing that in demand for air travel. Growing 10 large US airports, accounting for new airports may have to serve for a congestion in urban areas, combined 64% of the delays in 1999, only four very long time, developers have with the increasing remoteness of air- have any definite plans currently to sought sites that allow ample room port sites, is likely to make the non- expand their airside capacity before for subsequent capacity expansion. air portions of a journey increasingly the year 2005. The need to provide a buffer zone to burdensome and time consuming,

Building a new greenfield airport is not much easier. Proposals for constructing a new airport encounter the same strenuous local opposition generated by expansion plans. In addition, new airports face the difficulty of identifying a suitable site. New airports require a lot of space. Consider the new Denver International Airport, built in 1994 on a 137-square-kilometer site located a 50-minute drive from downtown Denver; such space is rarely available close enough to major metropolitan regions to be useful. It is instructive in this context that two of the significant new international airports completed in the last

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offsetting in a growing number of Growing airport congestion results in gational aids in favor of an entirely cases the travel time advantages that growing ATC congestion and delays. satellite-based system. Together, air travel offers. As more and more airports spend these various developments offer the more and more time operating at the potential for “free flight,” in which limits of their maximum feasible aircraft are freed from the require- Air traffic control issues. The air capacity, the system becomes more ment to follow fixed routes, and traffic control (ATC) system, another “brittle,” and more prone to turn instead are permitted to fly their own critical component of the infrastruc- small problems into large ones. A course, relying on satellite-based ture supporting the air transportation temporary disruption at one airport positioning systems, onboard route system, is a source of growing con- creates a queue of aircraft. Once that guidance, and direct aircraft-to-air- cern. As travel delays and disruptions airport resumes normal operation, craft communication to maintain sep- become increasingly common, many there may be so little excess capacity aration and safety. Proponents of free have begun to question whether the that it can take a long time to elimi- flight argue that it will reduce costs air traffic control system is capable of nate the queue. When such a queue and increase the effective capacity of reliably handling its current workload, persists, it can cause problems the airways. The extent to which much less the greatly expanded throughout the system. Aircraft these advances will facilitate workload expected in the future. delayed on the ground because of improved management of crowded congestion at a destination airport terminal areas is unclear. can cause additional problems at the The ATC system in developed coun- facility where they are held. Aircraft tries is made up of a network of navi- delayed at the start of the day may A number of institutional issues have gational aids, communication sys- never get back on schedule, resulting shaped the development of the ATC tems, and manned control centers in missed connections and passenger system. In many parts of the world, and towers that work together to inconvenience. large areas of airspace are reserved direct and coordinate the safe move- for military use. In many countries ment of aircraft. ATC personnel will the military shares responsibility with generally remain in communication In the developing world, air traffic civilian authorities for airspace man- with commercial aircraft throughout control problems can take different agement. Concerns over national their flights. A particular aircraft will forms. Air traffic demands are gener- defense and national sovereignty fly under the direction first of the air- ally lighter in relation to population have at times inhibited efforts to port tower; then of a terminal center and land mass, and so congestion improve operations and efficiency charged with coordinating the move- may be less of a problem. Facilities through international coordination ment of aircraft into and out of the are sometime less well developed, of policies and procedures. The tech- metropolitan region; and then of one however, and the system is less able nological underpinnings of the ATC or more en route flow control cen- to warn aircraft of hazards and system are complex, and the history ters, before passing through an anal- impending danger. In some regions of efforts by ATC operators to ogous process at its destination. ATC pilots may be forced to rely heavily replace and upgrade aging equip- personnel control aircraft movements on onboard navigational systems and ment is characterized by delays and by specifying altitudes, heading, and radio communication with other air- overruns. Some major initiatives routings. craft to guide their craft safely to its have been abandoned after the destination. expenditure of significant sums of money. In parts of the developing When congestion or disruption at any world, financing the system has point chokes the flow of traffic, the A variety of technological solutions to proven to be a challenge, which ATC system must manage the result- improve the capacity, reliability, and accounts for the underdeveloped ing queue. ATC personnel will performance of the ATC system have state of ATC in some regions. attempt to manage the flow of air- been proposed. Over time, the elec- craft to make sure that each facility tronic infrastructure of the system in receives no more than the number it most parts of the world has been Whether the ability of ATC systems to can safely handle. This is accom- replaced and improved. New equip- handle growing volumes of traffic will plished through a variety of mea- ment frequently offers a higher prove to be a binding constraint on sures, such as metering the flow of degree of automation and better sup- the growth of air travel is unclear. aircraft into the system through port for controller activities. New Many knowledgeable observers argue ground holds, rerouting, increasing capabilities have been added, such as that a large majority of ATC problems the separation of en route aircraft, direct data links between aircraft and actually can be traced to shortages of diversion of flights to secondary air- air traffic control computers. Satellite- airport capacity, and to the frequent ports, or ordering an aircraft to circle based navigational systems have backups of traffic that these shortages until the system clears. come into widespread use. Proposals cause. As long as such shortages have been made for scrapping the exist, however, the performance of existing system of ground-based navi-

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the ATC system is likely to remain a Four modes account for the bulk of Air travel is growing rapidly through- topic of debate and concern. all intercity passenger trips: bus, rail, out the world, typically exceeding auto, and air. The general trend that of the overall economy. Forecasts around the world has been away of air travel made by Airbus Industrie CONCLUSION from the low-cost, low-impact, lower and Boeing, the two major manufac- level of service of buses and trains, turers of commercial jet aircraft, Intercity travel both reflects geo- and toward the higher cost and high- suggest that global air travel alone graphic patterns of social and eco- er level of service of autos and air. will continue to grow at a rate of just nomic interaction and shapes the This general trend, however, has less than 5% a year for the next 20 evolution of those patterns. A num- manifested itself in different ways years. These estimates are consistent ber of significant social, political, eco- around the world. with the official planning estimates nomic, and technological trends developed by US and European increase and strengthen the long-dis- authorities. tance relationships of people around In the developing world, bus and rail the world, and stimulate the demand constitute the backbone of the inter- for international travel. These trends city passenger transportation system. A critical question from the point of include: Although autos and airplanes are view of the long-term sustainability of present, their roles are limited, and the intercity transportation system is air transportation is too costly for the extent to which the modal choic- ● Efforts to lower barriers to inter- many of the residents of these coun- es of the developing world come to national travel and trade. tries. Low levels of auto ownership mirror those of the developed world. and the underdeveloped state of the ● Increasing globalization of the world economy. intercity highway network limit the availability and the convenience of Although air travel accounts for only

● International migration. auto travel. Bus and rail are the low- a relatively small portion of trans- cost alternatives that most intercity portation-related greenhouse gas

● Increases in the availability and travelers in these countries rely upon. emissions, its significance is larger reductions in the cost of than its current size would suggest. telecommunications. Unlike other modes of transportation, In developing countries without well- aircraft emit the vast majority of their ● Increases in the quality and developed rail networks, and in the greenhouse gases in the upper tropo- quantity of information avail- unserved portions of countries with sphere and lower stratosphere. The able about people, cultures, such networks, bus is the primary impact of burning fossil fuels at this economic opportunities, and source of intercity mobility. altitude is approximately double that recreational possibilities in of burning the same fuels at ground distant locations. level. Moreover, air travel is one of In the developed world, most interci- the fastest growing segments of the ty travel is by auto or air, although in overall transportation system. Thus, As such travel has become faster and Europe and Japan rail plays an impor- whatever its current impact may be, less expensive, demand for interna- tant role. trends suggest that the effects will tional travel has grown enormously. increase substantially over time.

Aided by widespread auto ownership Available evidence suggests that and a highly developed intercity road In addition to its impacts on the intercity travel is a superior good in network, the use of auto for intercity global environment, air transporta- the sense that an increase in income travel by residents of developed tion has substantial localized impacts. leads to a disproportionate increase countries has grown substantially Airline traffic is highly concentrated, in the demand for travel. Growth in over the past several decades. To with the result that a relatively small income makes it easier for travelers to some extent this growth is a by-prod- number of airports account for a very use faster but more costly modes of uct of the growing use of automo- large fraction of all commercial air travel (auto, and especially air), there- biles for urban travel. Intercity travel traffic. This necessarily results in a by easing the considerable time accounts for only a relatively small high concentration of activity at these requirements of intercity travel. At fraction of overall auto use, and does locations. Emissions from aircraft that the same time, growth in income also not appear to be a significant factor are taxiing, landing, or taking off and increases the demand for high-quality in most auto purchase decisions. from related ground activities com- recreational experiences, stimulating Once an auto becomes available, bine to make major airports one of the demand for nonbusiness travel. however, it is likely to be used for the most significant point sources of long-distance trips. pollution in the metropolitan areas they serve. Airports generate large volumes of ground traffic. They also

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expose surrounding neighborhoods world. But it faces severe environ- Agreement (NAFTA). Other to significant noise. mental and operational sustainability prominent blocs include the problems, with no technological or Association of South East Asia infrastructure solutions on the hori- Nations (ASEAN); the Asia Pacific Over the past four decades, techno- zon. There is little margin to improve Economic Cooperation forum logical improvements have substan- airplane emissions at this time. The (APEC); and Mercosur, a tariff tially reduced the adverse impacts of improvements achieved in noise union comprising Argentina, air transportation, and the energy reduction are being overwhelmed by Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay, efficiency of the world air fleet has the overall growth of air traffic. Major with Bolivia and Chile as associat- improved markedly. Emissions per airports are frequently so crowded as ed members. passenger mile of the principal green- to cause severe delays throughout house gases have declined in step the air transport system. Yet local 5. About one-third are explicitly to with this improvement in energy effi- opposition to airport expansion and visit friends and relatives. Another ciency, although some of the techno- to the construction of new airports is 15% were for “personal business,” logical trade-offs have increased out- so fierce that the building of new which in all likelihood also has to put of other emission components. runways and airports is rarely a viable do with friends and relatives. Major strides have been made in solution. reducing the noise associated with 6. Though it is often possible to aircraft takeoffs and landings, but the obtain bus travel data for many reductions achieved in impacts per countries, it is difficult to isolate passenger mile or per operation have NOTES intercity travel. Further, in the been offset in whole or in part by case of most regions outside of growth in the total volume of air 1. Intercity passenger and freight the OECD countries, little or no travel. Although improvements in transportation are linked because reliable data is available and many energy efficiency are likely to contin- the systems providing these two of the figures presented are esti- ue, they are unlikely to be of suffi- types of transportation service mates. In all cases, intercity and cient magnitude to offset projected share common facilities, and at urban travel bus data are com- growth in traffic. As a result, energy times even common vehicles. This bined, so trends are less likely to use in air transportation — and the chapter focuses on passenger reflect actual levels of use. associated greenhouse gas emissions transportation. Freight transporta- — are likely to increase. Similarly, tion is discussed in Chapter 6. 7. “To reduce the burden on the projected improvements in noise sup- common man, IR has deliberately pression technology are unlikely to 2. Not surprisingly, though, the defi- kept passenger fares and freight offset growth in the number of oper- nitions used to define and report rates for items of mass consump- ations or in the number of people liv- data on intercity travel differ tion less than the cost of opera- ing near airports. across the world. In the United tion” (Indian Railways 2001, States, for example, travel surveys finance). IR estimates that input use a distance threshold of 100 prices have increased 2.2 times As the volume of air traffic has miles to define an intercity trip; in the rate of increase in receipts grown, it has proven difficult to the United Kingdom, the thresh- between 1970 and 1997. expand the capacity of the airport old is 50 miles. Though the Available at http://www.indianrail- system proportionately. The noise, nature of the available data way.com/railway/overview/finance traffic, and pollution associated with frames much of our discussion, in .html. Last visited March 2, 2001. major airports have in many cases this chapter we define intercity generated strenuous opposition to travel to include all trips of over 8. Many of the data issues raised their expansion. Such opposition has 100 miles (161 kilometers) in with intercity bus data are also halted airport expansion in many length. true of rail. In particular, urban rail locations. In others it has slowed the statistics are often combined with pace of expansion and increased its 3. Although cruise ships represent a those for intercity rail. cost. Another issue constraining the vibrant industry, such vessels are pace of airport expansion is the huge better regarded as floating resorts 9. This is not to say that nuclear amount of space required for new air- than serious modes of travel. energy is environmentally benign. port construction, and the resulting Apart from a few locations (e.g., At the very least there are consid- difficulty of locating suitable sites that China), intercity travel by water- erable safety issues associated are accessible to the population the based modes is not a significant with generating nuclear fuel and facility is intended to serve. factor. disposing of waste safely.

4. The two largest trading blocks are 10. Carriers differ in the extent to In short, air travel is the fastest-grow- the European Union (EU) and the which they actively manage and ing means of transportation in the North American Free Trade optimize their cargo operations.

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Some regard it as a major profit 17. San Francisco International Airport’s center, market it aggressively, runway reconfiguration project, if and strive to meet shipper expec- implemented, would need to fill in tations. Other adopt a more pas- up to 1400 acres of the San sive role. Francisco Bay. This would require special dispensation from the 11. There have also been a limited California state legislature, given a number of “Combi” aircraft. These 1965 Law that prohibited any fill of aircraft carry both passengers and the Bay (San Francisco 2001). freight, but devote a larger fraction of their capacity to cargo 18. US DOT, FAA 2000, fig. I-2. than do typical configurations. Runway projects are planned or underway at Newark, Atlanta, 12. Traditionally air cargo services Dallas–Fort Worth, and Phoenix. have been offered on an airport- Though the table lists Boston as to-airport basis. Responsibility for an airport with definite runway arranging ground transportation expansion plans, other informa- at the two ends of the trip was tion suggests that these plans are left to either the shipper or an still not final and face consider- agent such as a freight forwarder. able community opposition.

13. General aviation is defined on the basis of mode of operation rather than aircraft type. But the economics of aircraft ownership and operation are such that general aviation aircraft as a group are dramatically smaller than commercial aircraft considered as a group. The upper end of the general aviation size spectrum does, however, overlap the lower end of the range of aircraft types used in commercial service.

14. As engine operating efficiency increases, reductions in the tem- perature of the exhaust stream are greater than the corresponding reduction in water vapor concentration. This leads to increased contrail formation.

15. “To protect the majority of people against moderate annoyance during the day, exterior sound levels should not exceed 50 dB LAeq.” (WHO 2001).

16. US DOT, FAA 2000, fig. I-1. The 10 airports are Chicago O’Hare, Newark International, Atlanta Hartsfield, New York La Guardia, San Francisco International, Dallas Fort-Worth, Boston Logan, Philadelphia International, John F. Kennedy in New York, and Phoenix Sky Harbor International.

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The ability to move goods easily and inexpensively over long distances makes modern life possible. Yet discussions of sustainable mobility often ignore freight. Freight transportation consumes about 43% of all fuel used in transportation and is responsible for a major share of transport-related emissions of nitrogen oxides, unburned hydrocarbons, and fine particulate matter. Trucks delivering their loads compete with cars for space on city streets and on intercity expressways. Rail operators often must choose between optimizing their systems for the hauling of freight or for the hauling of passengers. Terminals where freight is collected, exchanged between modes, and distributed require large amounts of land in urban areas and are major sources of congestion and noise.

Freight mobility must be preserved and enhanced if society is to grow and prosper. But the challenges to freight mobility will not be easy to solve. Considering the importance of freight movement, attacking these problems must rank high on the scale of priorities for achieving sustainable mobility.

Freight transportation is one of the major underpinnings of modern society. Freight transportation systems bring water and fuel to our homes, food to our stores, and allow the economic and social specialization that enables cities to grow and modern societies to flourish. Cheap freight rates promote international trade and allow countries and regions to benefit from their comparative advantages in the world economy. Freight mobility has allowed many countries to achieve dramatic improvements in their incomes, standards of living, and quality of life. All of the exporting nations of Asia — Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and Korea — are based upon the inexpensive, reliable movement of freight. Freight can even save societies from starvation. The ability to distribute grain over India’s railways has played an important role in eliminating the fear of famine for millions. Indeed, the worldwide grain market created by the ability to move huge amounts of grain virtually anywhere in the world is a crucial safeguard against the famine and misery that would otherwise accompany local crop failures.

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Freight mobility is not without its What Does “Freight The systems that provide internation- costs, however. The movement of Mobility” Mean? al and intercity freight mobility will freight consumes approximately 43% likely continue to grow, both because “Freight mobility” is not a wide- of all transportation energy. Freight- of their efficiency and because of the ly discussed issue. Some of the hauling trucks clog highways and needs they fulfill on a daily basis. concepts of personal mobility emit large volumes of pollutants. Regional and urban freight mobility may also apply to freight, e.g., Even freight transportation’s role as faces greater problems, because the cost and time required to an enabler of globalization has its freight in general is moving on the move freight between various downside. Low-cost, reliable freight same roads as automobiles (prone to locations in a city, a region, or transportation has opened up vast, congestion), in the same urban areas the world. Without trying at this hitherto untouched regions of the (where air quality is a concern), and point to define freight mobility, world to economic development, but using fossil fuels (contributing to CO we can at least suggest that it 2 this development has often been emissions). Environmental problems should incorporate the following accompanied by environmental dis- could therefore be quite important considerations: ruption related to the dredging of for the small shipments and automo- harbors and the building of roads ● Manufacturers’ ability to bile movements (e.g., grocery shop- and railways. Some developing coun- obtain raw materials from ping) that typify urban goods move- tries have used their new access to distant sources. ments. The land-use patterns of world markets to engage in destruc- metropolitan areas might have to be ● A city’s ability to obtain tive agricultural practices or to sell revised if substantial limits to freight food, energy, construction their valuable raw materials for prices mobility emerge. Congestion is an materials, and other goods that may not reflect the true costs of immediate concern for freight mobili- at costs that do not dis- their production. ty; restrictions based upon either courage development and energy use or emissions (as opposed growth. to payment of higher prices for fuel Modern railways, highways, ports, ● The ability for manufactur- or emissions) will be a concern for and airports are essential for integrat- ers to consolidate produc- business and development. ing a nation’s economy and for tion so as to achieve reaching world markets. Good economies of scale and sell regional freight systems support eco- to a larger market. Components of the Freight nomic growth and world trade by System ● Ability to achieve lower giving manufacturers and consumers density within metropolitan bountiful and cheap choices of mate- This section provides an overview of areas (because it is easy to rials and products. In most cities, the components of the current transport goods within the local and regional movements pre- freight system, highlighting average region) while the metropoli- dominate, and trucks — of all shapes capabilities, major trends, and issues tan areas themselves grow and sizes — are the most visible ele- related to networks, performance, (in part because economies ment of the freight transport system. and capacity. in freight movements make Trucks are frequently viewed as a nui- it possible to achieve sance by commuters on congested economies of scale and den- city streets, but they are the life Urban freight movements. sity in public services, pro- blood of the city. They carry fuel for Within urban areas, the primary duction, housing, and other homes and businesses, resupply function of the freight system is to areas of the economy). stores and markets, distribute food support the local population by dis- and other goods to households, ● Individuals’ ability to tributing food, water, energy, infor- restock inventories and inputs for obtain groceries, energy, mation (mail, newspapers, maga- local businesses, and remove garbage and other goods without zines, catalogs, etc.), clothing, and and waste. Trucks are also the typical increased costs, disrup- other essentials to individual house- means of moving freight to the ports, tions in service (e.g., of holds and businesses, along with the airports, and rail terminals that pro- natural gas delivered to collection and removal of trash and vide links to regional, national, and customers through wastes. These are the most complex international markets. Pipelines are pipelines), or greater and costly elements of the freight critical mobility systems for the sup- expenditures of time. transportation system, as the freight

ply of water and natural gas, as are ● Producers and individuals must be delivered or picked up in sewer systems for the removal of being able to send and very small units and everybody must wastes. Where such services do not receive packages or other be served. For cities to exist at all, exist, households and small business- shipments of many differ- these services must be provided. For es are often forced to spend large ent sizes without excessive cities to prosper, they must be pro- amounts of time obtaining water and cost or time. vided effectively. fuel and disposing of waste.

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This clearly is an area where personal Importance of Freight Transportation to the Local mobility is related to the require- Standard of Living ments placed upon the freight system. The size and location of stores is “Household freight services” is another aspect of freight transportation that is inti- related to the time and expense that mately tied to personal mobility. Local in scope and usually overlooked, household people are willing and able to devote freight is surprisingly important for quality of life and essential to sustainable city life. to traveling. In cities, if people must Household freight services support three requirements for healthy living: walk to the grocery store, then there ● Obtaining sufficient quantities of water suitable for consumption, will be numerous small stores, requir- cooking,bathing, cleaning, and other household functions. ing relatively complex and expensive deliveries. If people can drive several ● Obtaining food and other supplies for the family. miles to stores, then they will, in general, find larger and more efficient ● Removing wastes. facilities, with a larger selection of Most of the developed world takes these services for granted. Hot and cold water goods and lower prices. When people runs within the home, gas lines or routine oil deliveries heat houses, and — most drive to centralized facilities, the com- importantly — electricity is there at the flick of a switch. Other household essentials plexity of the freight system has shift- are a quick trip away or, increasingly, available for home delivery. Indeed, household ed from the carrier and the supplier trash is taken to the curb, toilets are flushed, bottles recycled, and urban residents to the consumer. seldom give a moment’s thought to the disposal of these wastes. The ease with which urban residents of the developed world can acquire essential supplies, buy new goods, and dispose of their wastes defines “household freight services.” In rural A second function of the freight sys- areas of the developed world, household freight may involve slightly more cumber- tem is to provide materials for the some tasks and longer trips, but it is still managed with relative ease. development and maintenance of urban infrastructure. It is necessary to In the poorest areas of the world, however, the situation is dramatically different. obtain lumber, sand and gravel, steel, Lack of access to cheap, clean water and the inability to dispose of wastes are funda- and other construction materials and mental problems affecting large portions of the population; 15% of the world’s pop- supplies to build housing, other struc- ulation live in conditions where lack of sufficient quantities of clean water and insuffi- tures, roads, ports, and so forth. For a cient sewerage systems are constant threats to health (Potter et al., 1999, pp. large city, these movements will be 245–46). Moreover, the time and labor spent acquiring water and firewood are substantial, requiring special terminals major drains on household budgets and time. Residents of those regions, usually the and outlets. As with food, there is a women of the household, spend much of their day manually acquiring essential sup- link between freight and personal plies and are unable to engage in more rewarding economic, educational, or leisure mobility. Construction firms or indi- pursuits. viduals can drive many miles to buy building supplies; they are not dependent upon local suppliers nor do they require a nearby rail terminal. Trucks dominate urban freight. for businesses. Many new retail (and Increasing mobility for individuals and Distances are usually too short for e-tail) services depend upon the post small businesses again leads to larger rail or water transport to be viable, office or specialized carriers like UPS distribution centers. although a few highly specialized to deliver their products to con- movements do exist. As the demand sumers. In some industries, parcel for specialized goods and services transportation is the mainstay of the A third function of the freight system grows, the demand for smaller, logistics system. For example, in the is to provide logistics support for local more specialized trucks increases. In United States, over 75% of oph- businesses. The urban freight system Japan, restaurants often want deliv- thalmic or opticians’ goods move by allows local businesses to assemble eries of fresh fish twice daily. parcel, postal, or courier services (US raw materials and supplies from local Consumers buy many different DOT, BTS 1997a, p. 203). sources and — more commonly — items from catalogs or from on-line from remote locations via local ware- outlets — and these will be deliv- houses, storage facilities, local freight ered to their door by a specialized Of course, in large urban areas, terminals, or local connections to the truck. In Bangkok, many small man- freight transportation becomes an intercity freight networks. Likewise, ufacturers move their day’s produc- important activity in itself, and it is the urban freight system must sup- tion to a market or a storage facility important to consider the national port the distribution of local products in a truck smaller than most cars. and international networks that pass within the metropolitan region or to through the city. Ports and major other regions via local sources. freight terminals become a focus for Small-package delivery is an increas- regional, national, and international ingly significant element of urban logistics activities. Through freight freight mobility, for individuals and movements may be an important

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The Lunch Box Carriers of Mumbai The Role of Rail in Regional Freight Mumbai, India, is home to one of the most labor-intensive yet efficient personal Movements freight systems in the world. Every day 4,500 dabbawallahs, as the delivery men are known, pick up thousands of hot lunch boxes (dabbas) from customers’ homes, The railway network is no longer transport the boxes to the customers’ offices, and then return the empty dabbas in critical for regional mobility. Once the afternoon. In the morning, the first team of dabbawallahs fan out across Mumbai it is possible for a truck to move and its suburbs, picking up an average of 30 dabbas each from customers’ homes. 15 to 20 tons of freight at 20 to They pick up and transport the dabbas by motorcycle or bicycle and deliver them to 40 mph over reasonable roads, the second team at local train stations. The second team delivers the dabbahs by then the truck will be cheaper and train to central train stations, where the third team sorts through the thousands of often more energy efficient than lunch boxes in less than 10 minutes and delivers them to their lunch customers by the railroad for general freight. noon. After lunch, the process is repeated to bring the dabbas home. Trucks do not need a high-speed, interstate highway to take most of This legendarily popular and efficient system depends on the hard work of the dab- the short- and medium-length bawallahs and their simple coding system. For instance, Shomik Bhakelar’s dabba is shipments of general merchandise coded 3MC4; 3 for the carrier who delivers in the Nariman Point business district, from the rail. Thus, the extensive MC for Bhakelar’s office building, and 4 for the floor where his office is. The cost to regional rail networks that were Bhakelar? A very affordable 150 rupees per month. The dabbawallahs contribute the critical for nineteenth-century money to their local cooperatives, such as the Nutan Mumbai Tiffinbox Suppliers’ development were really not a Charity Trust, which pays them a monthly salary of 3,000 rupees. factor for development in the latter half of the twentieth-century. The dabbawallahs have weathered recessions, changes in work patterns, widespread The decline of the railroad around mill closings in the 1980s that robbed them of thousands of customers, and the pro- the world was to a large extent a liferation of office canteens and food courts in the 1990s. Adept at new marketing slow, painful adjustment of the opportunities, the dabbawallahs now offer their services online, at transport system and of economic www.webrishi.com. And lest one doubt their efficiency, Forbes Global recently con- geography to the development of ducted an in-depth study of the dabbawallahs and awarded them a 6 Sigma perfor- a superior mode of transport. mance rating, a quality assurance rating indicating a percentage of correct deliveries There were simply too many rail of 99.999999 or better. (Unnithan, 2001) lines for a world with paved roads and large trucks. component of highway traffic, and a At the regional level, moving food large portion of the local economy and other essentials directly to or may benefit from freight activities. from households and small businesses the quality of local streets or bridges, Hong Kong, Singapore, Rotterdam, is no longer a prime concern. Instead, then it will not be an attractive site for and the other large ports derive the issue is moving goods to, from, a shipper wanting to use the largest tremendous benefits from interna- and between production facilities, trucks. On the other hand, if a town tional trade. Chicago’s location warehouses, storage facilities, and has good access to the highway, then enabled it to become the gateway to regional connections to the national the entire world is open to it. the American West and a natural cen- and international networks. Though ter for production and distribution shipments are generally larger and throughout the Midwest. hauls longer than is the case for In most countries, water transport is urban movements, trucks dominate useful primarily for specialized move- regional freight movements, much as ments of bulk commodities. In coun- Regional freight movements. they dominate urban movements. tries without a good road network, Regions are areas that may include a The difference is that the most eco- water transport remains valuable for dominant city, several other cities, nomical trucks will likely be larger general freight. And in countries or numerous smaller cities and towns, than the myriad small trucks seen in regions with exceptional access to and a rural hinterland. The distances the city. At this scale, the use of rail is good waterway systems, such as involved in regional freight move- usually limited to the movement of Germany and the midwestern United ments are in the 100- to-500-kilome- bulk commodities such as coal or States, water transport plays a major ter range. Regions are best defined in sand and gravel, depending upon the role in the location of economic terms of economic geography, which location of the mine or the gravel pit activity and in freight transport. seldom follows political borders. An relative to the power plants or the appropriate region might be a state major construction sites. or a province within a large country, National or continental freight an entire country, or several small movements. There are two strategic countries. The highway network is the key to freight-related concerns at the regional mobility for freight. If a town national level, where the distances has restricted load limits because of are in excess of 500 kilometers. The

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first is the ability to move goods Air Freight throughout the country or continent at low cost, so as to allow economies Air freight is the newest, fastest, and most expensive freight mode. The speed and of scale in production and distribu- reliability of air service allow dramatic innovation in business practices and open new tion. The second is the ability to serve markets for certain types of commodities. The expense of air freight limits the ton- export and import markets. Lower nage that is handled, but the high value of shipments makes air freight an important transport costs allow a country to factor in international trade. compete in international markets for There are three types of air cargo services: freight moving in commercial passenger a broader variety of goods. aircraft (“belly” cargo), freight moving in aircraft specially dedicated to freight, and express services for small packages. The first two services compete with surface transportation for high-value shipments. Ubiquity of service is not important; it is not essential that every city have Every air freight move is an intermodal move, as a highway move is required at each immediate access to the best freight end of the shipment. Businesses that depend upon air freight often locate at or next system — or even that most cities to airports to minimize the time and expense of the local move. For example, large have reasonable access. For long-dis- companies may keep inventories of expensive parts at a warehouse next to an air- tance trips, by road or rail, there will port; when need for the parts arises, they can be dispatched by the next available be many alternative routes to follow; flight. The expense of air freight is justified by the savings from consolidating inven- going an extra 50 kilometers to get tories at one location; it may even be quicker to deliver the parts by air freight than to a good route is not the problem it by using highway transport from a closer warehouse. would be for urban or regional trips. But it is critical that there be efficient Express services are decidedly different, as the focus is on small shipments, including ways to cover the continental dis- many shipments direct to consumers or end users of the product. Typical shipment tances and suitable sites for locating weights are 2 kilograms for domestic services in North America and 20 kilograms for new industrial or other economic intercontinental shipments. Door-to-door service is key for express services, and carri- activity. ers offer customers a variety of options, e.g., next morning, next afternoon, or second-day delivery. For such services, the cost of the air transport is actually secondary to ordering and billing costs. Once the packages have been picked up, the key is to As distances get longer, the cost minimize the amount of sorting required and to minimize the time required to make advantage of rail becomes more the delivery. Using aircraft for moving the packages to and from a central sorting attractive. Railroads are well suited to facility allows overnight deliveries to be made across an entire continent. The speed hauling large shipments of coal, of air transport is essential for these express services; the cost, at well under $1 per grain, and other bulk commodities. kilogram, is inconsequential. As traffic volumes rise beyond the capacity of a single For container traffic, the line-haul cost sorting facility, carriers may open additional sorting hubs, and they may begin to do savings on the railroad become more preliminary sorting at the local terminals in order to allow some use of trucks enough to offset the costs of moving for deliveries to regions that can be reached in an overnight drive. A highway-based trailers or containers on or off rail system will work fine, but only if the maximum distances are less than 500 miles and cars. As a result, intermodal trans- if there is enough volume to support the added cost of the truck. portation linking rail and truck becomes an option. However, such intermodal movements require specialized facilities and minimum levels Historically, inland waterways are For instance, the Paraná River in of traffic to be economical. For the linked to the development of cities South America allows shipment of soy most part, they are concentrated in and trade routes. The major river sys- beans and grain from the fertile inte- North America and Western Europe, tems have long been critical for rior of Brazil and Bolivia through the e.g., the dedicated double-stack con- movement of grain, lumber, coal, and port of Buenos Aires. Although the tainer trains that are common in the until the development of the railways, river does not yet support large United States and Canada. In Europe, everything else. These systems can barges or large tows, the costs are so trucks are moved under the Swiss move very large shipments with a low that they are competitive with Alps using a single, articulated rail car minimal expenditure of energy. shorter rail moves to closer ports. In that has room for 10 to 20 trailers, Where the rivers are reasonably general, when rivers are broad and with an easy way for truck drivers to straight, barge transport is much deep, as in the lower Mississippi drop their trailers on the platform (or more fuel-efficient than rail. Though River, 40 or more 10,000-tonne to park their entire truck and trailer waterway transportation is slower barges can be lashed together into a on the platform). Appendix A-4 than rail (and much slower than single tow for movement down the describes the operational characteris- highway transportation), it remains river. Such an operation is both cheap tics of the most significant kinds of cost-effective for the movements of and energy-efficient. This is no longer rail technologies used for inter- agricultural products, coal, ores, and true when rivers are narrow, or if regional freight transport. other commodities that are relatively locks need to be built. Locks and cheap and shipped in high volume.

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Table 6-1. Ocean shipping demand (trillions of tonne-km)

Crude Petroleum Plus Containerized Petroleum Dry Bulk General Share of Year Products Cargo* Cargo† Total General Cargo 1975 15.7 5.0 4.5 25.2 Nil‡ 1980 14.7 6.6 6.0 27.3 20.7% 1985 8.3 7.2 5.6 21.1 30.1% 1990 12.6 8.5 6.5 27.6 35.1% 1995 15.0 9.4 8.1 32.5 43.7% Source: WEC (1998). *Materials shipped unpackaged — coal, grain, ores, fertilizer material. †Materials and goods shipped packaged. ‡Containerized shipping did not exist as a mode until the mid-1950s and was not significant until the 1970s.

dams are both expensive and envi- freight shipped. Ocean shipping is (Figure 6-1). The maritime sector pro- ronmentally disruptive. highly efficient. Extremely large ships, vides a critical backbone to global operated with remarkably small economic sustainability. For example, crews, move great tonnages vast dis- according to the World Bank (2001c), Though they do not dominate the tances at minimal costs. Competition seaborne freight accounts for 80% of longest moves, even here, trucks play is fierce, keeping prices low and developing countries’ trade as mea- an important role. Large trucks on encouraging international trade. sured by tonnage shipped. In the high-quality highways are key to While almost any commodity can and European Union, approximately 90% intercity trucking movements. Better does move in ocean shipping, three of trade with third countries and 35% highways increase service and the dominate: oil, grain, and containers of intracommunity trade occurs via use of resources, while larger trucks (Table 6-1). the oceans, with EU ports handling reduce the unit costs of transporta- 2.3 billion tonnes annually (ESPO tion. Limited-access highways allow 2001). The English Channel exempli- trucks to travel more than 800 kilo- In terms of value of freight shipped, fies the importance of sea trade to meters per day or 100,000 kilome- containers have come to dominate Europe — with approximately 47 ves- ters per year. If two drivers are used for each truck, these distances can be doubled. The larger the truck, the lower the cost for equipment and drivers, whether measured in terms of cost per unit weight or cost per unit of capacity. For bulk commodities, the carrier desires heavier pay- loads; for many other commodities, the carrier and the customer want more space.

Air freight, which requires a combination of truck and air transportation for the complete trip, accounts for a small, but valuable portion of national and international trade (see feature box).

International freight movements. Ocean shipping is the dominant mode for overseas freight tonnage, although air freight can be significant in terms of the value of

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sels, over 40,000 deadweight tonnes the oceans, although container ships ships deployed within the Atlantic or (DWT) crossing every day, the are also increasing in size. The contin- within the Pacific, the Panama Canal Channel has some of the highest traf- uous growth in tanker and bulk cargo no longer caps the size of ships. For fic densities of any stretch of water in ships has paralleled growth in trade instance, the largest container ships the world (Owen 1999). In the U.S., of their respective commodities (i.e., were once the “Panamax”-class ships waterborne trade exceeded 1.1 bil- oil and grains). Container ships are a capable of carrying 4,000 20-foot lion tonnes in 2000, with goods val- more recent addition to the global containers; today, Post-Panamax ships ued at US$740 billion (AAPA 2001). fleet, with the first purpose-built ves- can carry 6-8,000 TEUs. The size of sels entering service only in 1965. these behemoths is now limited by They have grown substantially in the ports, as only deep-water ports The Merchant Fleet. In recent both numbers and average size. can handle the largest ships. These years, the world’s ship fleet, in terms trends are also true of tankers and of total DWT, has been increasing, grain ships. albeit slowly — at a rate of 1.3% This growth in the number and aver- from 1998 to 1999 and 1.6% from age size of container-hauling ships 1997 to 1998 (UNCTAD 2000). The has paralleled the growth in global The economics of ocean shipping are largest fleet types — oil tankers, bulk container movements. The number of characterized by low line-haul costs, carriers, and general cargo ships — containers handled in world ports ship costs that get lower per unit of have been increasing at the slowest increased from 39 million TEU (20- capacity as the ship gets bigger, and rate (1.1%, 0.2%, and 0.2%, respec- foot-equivalent units) in 1980 to 185 significant costs of port operations. tively), while container ships and million TEU by 1998 (Drewry 1999). Taken together, these three factors other types of ships — each less than Growth in container movements in cause the costs of international ship- 10% of the global fleet — have been North America, West Europe, the Far ping to be dominated not by the increasing at 4.1% and 5.7%, respec- East, and Southeast Asia has been ocean voyage but by the land side tively (UNCTAD 2000). particularly rapid (see Figure 6-2). costs — the rail or truck movement to the port and the handling at the port. As a result, if it is possible to get Of the various vessel types, dry bulk Marine architecture has successfully bulk commodities or containers to a cargo ships are often called the increased the size and strength of major port at a reasonable expense, it “workhorses” of the world’s fleet ships so that infrastructure, not tech- is then possible to ship those com- (IMO, 1999), comprising 33% of the nology, limits ship size. For many modities or containers to any other all vessels. Oil tankers comprise an years, the largest ships were designed major port in the world at a modest almost equal share. Both of these ves- to slip (barely) through the locks of additional expense (on the order of sel types are among the largest plying the Panama Canal. Today, with many

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$100 per thousand kilometers per wheat, 200 million tonnes of rice, coal and 10 barrels of oil per person container). and 250 million tonnes of other per year; this exceeds agricultural grain. Canada is a major exporter, production, but is considerably easier with a vast rail network linking the to manage as freight, because pro- WHAT IS BEING MOVED AND production areas in the western duction and consumption are highly WHAT IS MOVING IT? plains to ports on the Great Lakes concentrated. and the Pacific. The United States and Freight transportation can be distilled Brazil are the world’s biggest to a few key concepts: tonnages, exporters of soybeans. Brazil is note- Coal is the most important commodi- shipments, and tonne-kilometers. worthy because its soybean produc- ty shipped by railroads, usually trans- Tonnages reflect the level of production has grown significantly in recent ported directly from mines to power tion and consumption of the econo- years as new lands are opened to plants and large industrial users. The my. Shipments reflect the vehicles, agriculture in the fertile western por- major producers are China and the vessels, and technologies available to tions of the country. With more fertile United States, with substantial pro- move the freight, as well as the soil, more efficient farms, and an duction in India, Australia, Russia, amount of freight produced and con- improving transport infrastructure, South Africa, and Poland. In addition sumed at specific locations. Tonne- Brazil is challenging the United States to being the single largest commodi- kilometers reflect the distances of for soybean exports. ty transported in North America, coal shipments as well as the tonnages is also estimated to be one of the and are used to indicate effort most profitable commodities shipped required to move freight. Costs are a While annual production varies with on the North American railroads. It is function of all three factors, with the the weather and other factors, the a major export commodity as well, relative importance of each factor demand for grain is driven by the and significant technological varying by vehicle, technology, and demand for food. Figure 6-3 shows advances in rail and ocean transport the characteristics of the commodity. that the per-capita production of allow worldwide distribution. grain is just over 300 kilograms per year worldwide. This may seem to be To understand freight transportation, a large amount (i.e., two loaves of How Freight is Moved in it is important to begin with the bread a day per person), but it Different Parts of the World freight itself. This section starts with a includes feed grain for livestock, brief discussion of the commodities which is converted to meat. Figure 6- Freight can be moved by many differ- that constitute the large majority of 3 shows that grain dominates agricul- ent transport modes, including global freight movements. tural production: per-capita produc- numerous combinations of tanker, tion of meat is about 40 kilograms rail, and truck. Figure 6-5 shows how per year, and the numbers for soy- much freight moves on rail, truck, The Commodities that beans and fish are lower. To put the waterway (inland and coastwise), and Constitute Freight Movements statistics for food production in per- pipeline, in a selection of countries spective, the figure also shows that and regions. This figure shows both A small selection of primary com- per-capita production of paper is the quantity and modal share of modities, food, fuel, and ores domi- about 50 kilograms per year. Food freight tonne-kilometers as of the nates the total tonnage of freight indeed is the primary product for the early 1990s. moved globally. In 1994, coal, farm consumer society. But, as shown on products, chemicals (and allied prod- the right side of Figure 6-3, the pri- ucts), nonmetallic minerals, metallic mary product of the consumer soci- The differences among the countries ores and stone, and clay and glass ety may be waste. The United States and regions shown in Figure 6-5 are products constituted over 70% of the produced over 700 kilograms of solid striking. The United States had the tonnes transported by US railroads, municipal waste in 1996. Picking up, most balanced distribution as well as and 64% of the tonnes shipped in US consolidating, transferring, and dis- the highest total amount of freight domestic waterborne commerce in posing of the waste is a major freight traffic. In Russia, rail and pipelines 1994. (WEC 1998). transport activity. carry higher volume but little use is made of trucks. China had some balance among rail, road, and waterway, Grain is the key agricultural commod- Different forms of fuel constitute with rail by far the most important. ity requiring transportation. In some another primary freight commodity. Western Europe and Japan had form it is basic to the diet of every Figure 6-4 shows that the production almost no rail freight and were highly culture, both as food and as feed for of perhaps the two most important dependent on road freight. livestock, and it is easy to store and fuels, coal and oil, is highly concen- transport. China is the largest produc- trated across a few countries. er of grain in the world, growing Production and transportation of fuel The split across different modes approximately 100 million tonnes of is on the order of 500 kilograms of reflects several factors. First, geogra-

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phy plays an important role in deter- coastwise shipping. However, being extensive rail networks. However, mining how freight is moved. small and mountainous, it lacks the only the United States and Western Countries need coastlines to conduct long hauls that are most suitable for Europe have an extensive network of ocean shipping; suitable rivers are rail. Infrastructure investments and good highways. Similarly, although needed to facilitate inland water political factors also play an impor- Western Europe is large enough for movements. For instance, an island- tant role. For instance, the United long-haul rail service, it has not devel- country like Japan has a very high States, Russia, China, and Western oped as an integrated economy. As a proportion of freight moving in Europe are all large regions with

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result it still does not have a unified SUSTAINABILITY CONCERNS ing on its capacity and characteristics. heavy-haul rail-freight network. RELATED TO FREIGHT MOBILITY Ocean tankers are silent and invisible to the majority of ordinary citizens, Freight transportation raises a num- yet they generate air pollution. Trucks Across the world, rail’s share of ber of complex questions for sustain- are the crucial beginning and end freight is generally declining, even able mobility. The movement of links in most freight transportation. though the total magnitude of traffic freight contributes greatly to many Their ubiquity makes them the most moved on rail may well be increasing. of the problems associated with visible and vexing elements of the For instance, Figure 6-6 shows that mobility — fatalities, air pollution, congestion conundrum, and the most rail tonne-kilometers continued to environmental degradation, conges- dangerous to their operators and to grow in China, Russia, and the coun- tion, and noise. Yet freight is abso- other drivers. Airplanes are the tries of North America. However, lutely essential for modern life. In a fastest, and also the loudest links in Figure 6-7 shows that in all of these crisis, most citizens could reduce the the system. Rail and barge are the countries, the growth in road traffic amount they drive or fly and still most energy-efficient means of was even greater. China, with rapid conduct their lives. Modern societies freight transport, and contribute the economic expansion during the could not function without regular least to noise and congestion. Yet 1990s, experienced more than a 10- deliveries of food and fuel and dis- because they must operate on fixed fold increase in road tonne-kilometers posal of wastes. The old cry of the routes, transport by rail and barge is as the railways struggled to handle a railroad men that “The freight must declining worldwide. Three enormous tripling of traffic. get through!” remains essentially national rail systems, those of Russia, true. Because of the important China, and India, have barely begun nature of freight, and the volume of to rationalize their passenger and In Western Europe, rail traffic actually goods transported, the operational freight operations and adjust to com- declined about 10%, while road traf- sustainability of the freight system is petition from trucks. The transition fic doubled between 1970 and the a paramount concern. away from rail in any of those nations early 1990s. Not surprisingly, Figure will mean painful adjustments for mil- 6-8 shows that rail share declined lions of workers, and expensive infras- throughout the region over the last Yet the operations of the freight sys- tructure investments for their fellow quarter of the twentieth century from tem impose increasing burdens on citizens. about 30% of tonne-kilometers in the the social, environmental, and eco- early 1970s to only about 15% in the nomic fabrics of society. Each link in early 1990s. the transportation network carries To complicate matters, freight facili- individual costs and benefits, depend- tates and highlights the complex,

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interdependent nature of the global The challenge of freight transporta- Operational Sustainability economy. One reason so many deliv- tion is to maintain operational effi- Concerns ery trucks clog the streets of cities is ciency yet minimize the many delete- Capacity and congestion. that goods can now be shipped to rious side effects of the system. This Capacity and congestion are general and from almost any market in the means freight operators must navi- problems for trucking, especially in world — and they are, in increasing gate political interests, public con- and around cities. Congestion numbers. Managing national and cerns, hazards to safety and tranquili- reduces mobility and increases fuel international trade and freight ty, land-use limitations, environmen- consumption and emissions. requires the attention of governments tal problems, yet still make their pick- Congestion and the high costs of at every level, from heads of state ups and deliveries on time. Because home delivery also threaten to limit negotiating global pacts on trade, to of the volume and importance of Web-based retail commerce, where county councils regulating the hours freight, it poses some of the most the final delivery of products to in which trucks can rumble through demanding and acute challenges to homes and small businesses can be their streets. sustainable mobility. very costly. Alliances are developing among the major express carriers and the national postal services to deal Cheap Freight Rates as the Key to the Global Economy with this issue. Congestion is also a The costs of high-volume transportation between essentially any two ports in the concern at the regional level, espe- world are very low. For manufactured goods, costs are on the order of $0.01/tonne- cially where choke points limit flow kilometer. For comparison, a 1000-kilometer movement of a container costs about through a region. 10 times this by truck and about 5 times this on the best rail intermodal service. The modal comparison shows that ocean transport is cheaper than ground transport, but Infrastructure availability. fails to convey how cheap that service really is. Consider what it means to the con- Ground- and air-based freight trans- sumer for companies to be able to ship a container halfway around the world for, portation face infrastructure limits in say, $3,000. A container can hold about 20 tonnes of merchandise, so the cost per several regions of the globe. High- tonne would be on the order of $150 and the cost per kilogram would be less than speed, high-capacity, limited-access $0.15. Compare these two figures to the cost of, say, a $40 book marketed in the US highways are primarily available only by a European publisher or a $200 electronic device manufactured in Japan. The in North America and Europe. As a value of other manufactured goods can be higher, about $20,000/tonne for automo- consequence, trucking costs are high- biles, much more for computers and consumer electronics. Shipping products like er in other parts of the world, these internationally adds less than 1% to their cost, which is why international ship- although the opening of even a dirt ping is growing so rapidly, and consumers can enjoy a global variety of goods and road provides access to new regions. products.

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Timescales of Change a new rail line that would link the railroads in the eastern and western In economics and in transportation, theoretical analyses often refer to systems in parts of the country. which price mechanisms cause an equilibrium between supply and demand. The concept of an equilibrium is perhaps worthwhile for educational purposes, as it allows very elegant theories to be postulated. Nevertheless, we must recognize that The Panama Canal is operating near in economics, as in the physical sciences, the timescale is important. Though systems capacity and can no longer serve the might ultimately reach equilibrium, this can take a long time. largest ships; an additional set of locks will be needed to provide a With transportation systems, the timescale for changes must be measured in decades long-term solution. However, such a (or centuries) for some systems, while other systems can be changed quite quickly. project will require more water New vehicle technology can be introduced in a matter of months or years, but the (which is periodically in short supply new vehicles themselves will likely be introduced slowly as older vehicles wear out or already) or a redesign of the lock sys- as demand justifies fleet expansion. A motor carrier might change over its entire fleet tem to allow reuse of water. of tractors in 5 to 10 years, but a railroad will take 20 years or more to change over its fleet of locomotives or freight cars. Public outcry and strict legislation, such as the US Oil Pollution Act of 1990, passed in the aftermath of the Exxon Valdez disaster, It is unclear whether there will be suf- can hasten change, but such instances are rare. Adjustments in the route structure ficient space within major metropoli- are much slower; it is not difficult to add or delete a few links in the network or to tan areas to sustain the growth trends upgrade a few terminals, but it takes generations to adjust the nature of the net- in freight transportation. Ports have work. The major transportation routes may last, in one form or another, for hundreds limited space, and there is strong of years. competition for waterfront property. Railroad rationalization is an example of a process that requires a long time to reach According to the World Bank equilibrium. In the United States and Canada, the railroads took approximately 70 (2001c), global port container years (beginning in about 1925, when the network reached its route-mile peak) to throughput will reach 270 million rationalize their networks from what was suitable when rail was dominant for both TEUs by 2005, 55% greater than freight and passenger to what is appropriate for a modern heavy-haul railroad devot- 1998 levels. This projected growth ed to freight transportation. This sounds like a long time, but the transition has not will require between 200 and 300 yet taken place on a large scale anywhere else in the world. new container terminals. At the same time, trends indicate a growing con- The freight systems in China and India are a good example. In these large countries, centration of traffic within a small the railroads still handle vast amounts of passengers and freight. Powerful political segment of ports — a phenomenon forces would like to see the railroads maintain their dominant positions and continue strengthened by the growth in trans- to employ millions of laborers; however, these countries have yet to deal with the shipment (akin to airport hubs in the capabilities of motor carriers. It is one thing for the railroads to handle vast amounts airline hub and spoke system). The of freight because there are no options; it is another for the railroads to handle the result is an increase in port conges- freight because they are in fact the best option. As China and India plan for the tion, both on the sea-to-land side as future, they must consider not only the best transportation systems, but also the well as on the land side, as space for financial means to pay for their development, and the political obstacles to change. unloading, storing, and ultimately, transporting freight by land to its final destination becomes increasingly The successful transition from the tra- works were designed to link cities, scarce. The trend toward larger ships ditional to the modern heavy-haul mines, and regional economic activity will only exacerbate this problem, as railroad system that has been made to the ports. well as continue to increase pressures in the United States and Canada, has for dredging port sea bottoms to also occurred in portions of South allow for deeper berths. The greatest Africa, Australia, and Brazil. China and Major projects may also be needed to problems lie in the megacities in the India also have extremely high-densi- increase the connectivity of the sys- developing world, where there is little ty rail networks, but they have not tem. In Latin America, for example, history in dealing with large and yet faced intensive highway competi- the Andes provide a formidable barri- sophisticated freight transportation, tion. Both these countries have er to transportation. Although there and where present land-use patterns worked with the World Bank and oth- are roads and railroads across the and real estate development cannot ers to develop strategic plans for mountains, these are difficult, low- accommodate intermodal freight. increasing system capacity and capacity routes that would be inade- improving rail efficiency. In Eastern quate for major freight movements. Europe, the rail system was designed Argentina and Chile are considering System concerns: secure trade for an economy that once faced east, construction of new highways or rail- routes and stable financial mar- but now must now also face west. In ways over or through the Andes. kets. Security of trade routes has Africa, there never was an integrated Bolivia is evaluating the potential for been an essential national security continental rail system, as the rail net- what they call the “Interconnection,” concern since ancient times. Indeed,

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much of history can be interpreted as Freight’s “Public Relations” Problems competition for new markets, new sources of supply, and secure trade Freight transportation and regional economic activity are generally intertwined — routes. Since the conclusion of World and the relationships are easily understood at a local level. The employees of the War II, there have been few sustained paper mill know the importance of the trucks and railroads that deliver pulpwood threats to international shipping lanes and chemicals and pick up the newsprint and paper products. The workers, their and air freight. neighbors, and their friends and relatives live with the noise of the local freight yard, the large trucks lumbering through their streets, just as they live with the smell of the paper mill. As the developed world becomes less dependent upon manufactur- Stable, well-managed financial mar- ing and extractive industries, however, fewer people are financially dependent on, kets are also important for the and tolerant of, the activities that generate the freight traffic. Moreover, people tend smooth flow of freight. Trade flour- to view the supermarket and the mall as the source of the goods that they buy — ished hundreds of years ago without they do not make a clear connection between the truck traffic and the goods they the benefit of computers or electronic acquire. banking. Trouble in the financial mar- As cities develop, and particularly as they shift from manufacturing to information kets could easily disrupt growth and economies, their residents are less tolerant of the disruptions that result from freight reduce freight transportation, but the operations. The most widespread conflict is related to the treatment of trucks in traf- capability of financial institutions to fic congestion. Capacity and congestion are general problems for trucking, especial- deal with international shipments will ly in and around cities. Congestion reduces mobility and increases fuel consumption be easy to sustain. and emissions. Congestion and high costs of home delivery could also limit Web- based retail commerce, where the final delivery of products to homes and small businesses can be very costly. Alliances are developing among the major express carriers Economic Sustainability and the national postal services to deal with this issue. Congestion is also a concern at the regional level, especially where choke points limit flow through a region. The key concerns regarding economic sustainability are whether freight Cities across the world — from New Delhi to New York City — impose restrictions on costs will remain low enough for truck activity, including prohibitions of large trucks and the limiting of truck activity national and international trade to to certain zones or to off-peak times. There are many more automobile drivers than continue to prosper, and whether truckers, and as the link between personal well-being and local freight becomes less freight transportation will remain suf- appreciated, the initial political pressure is to restrain truck traffic, without consider- ficiently mobile to allow continued ing the consequences to local economies and personal freight distribution. Around growth, development, and improve- major intercity freight facilities, truck traffic may be perceived as a nuisance, particu- ment in the quality of life worldwide. larly as residential areas expand and come into closer contact with the freight terminals. Noise, aesthetics, and night lights all become greater concerns. Similarly, ports around the world are under great pressure to release land for residential or office Freight transportation has enjoyed development. Areas once covered by port facilities, rail yards, and warehouses are tremendous productivity growth over now viewed as prime spots for expanding the real estate development in major ports the last 50 years. Better roads, better around the world. railroads, larger vehicles and terminals, improved communications and control, and cheap oil helped reduce Throughout much of the world, great However, a common problem is that transport costs, despite increases in economies remain to be achieved carriers cannot afford to expand, the costs of materials and labor. In through the development of modern because of competitive forces that many regions and markets the pro- highways, railways, ports, and inter- keep rates low. Where this is true, as ductivity gains and low prices are a modal terminals. Fuel availability and long as the low rates translate into tribute to the vigor of free markets; cost are ongoing concerns. Labor broad public benefits, then the pub- freight transportation is one of the shortages are a growing problem in lic and their governments need to most competitive industries, with the the developed world, although for find a way to deal with the financing lowest margins in the world. How the foreseeable future, driving a truck problem. long these trends can continue is will continue to be a relatively high- uncertain. Symptoms of potential paying job in the developing world. long-term problems include rising Addressing Operational fuel prices, public antagonism to Sustainability Concerns very large trucks, the difficulty in Financing major infrastructure pro- handling the largest ships at most jects is a challenge everywhere. For the most part, the freight system ports, and the driver shortages expe- Theory suggests that if the service is is driven by cost, not by the utility of rienced in the United States over the worthwhile and provides economic individuals. If costs change, then the last 10 years. benefits, then somehow these ecosystem adjusts. Increases in fuel costs, nomic benefits can and will be taxes for emissions, restrictions on tapped to finance the service. land use, and requirements for noise

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in more extensive networks that When Is a Truck “Too Large”? provided more direct routes capable of handling larger vehi- In North America, regulations governing size and weight limits for trucks remain a cles moving more safely at source of lively, often virulent debate. Truckers argue that larger trucks are more fuel- faster speeds. efficient (in tonne-kilometers per liter of fuel) and more economical than smaller trucks. Further, they argue that fewer larger trucks would relieve congestion on busy ● Technological innovations for urban highways. However, strong countervailing arguments exist. vehicles and rights-of-way First, there are safety concerns. The public is concerned about the safety of large resulted in faster, cheaper, trucks — especially trucks pulling multiple trailers — and highways where the num- more reliable, and safer trans- ber of trucks impedes freedom of movement for automobiles. In some locations at port of larger and more diverse certain times of the day, trucks fill up an entire lane (or more) on major highways, shipments. making it particularly difficult for some drivers to enter or exit the highway. Trucks pulling multiple trailers can also have stability problems. In response, the motor carri- ● Institutional, regulatory, and er industry argues that larger trucks operated by experienced drivers on appropriate political innovations improved infrastructure at reasonable speeds are no riskier per truck-kilometer and are less risky the availability, service, safety, per tonne-kilometer than a greater number of smaller trucks. security, and cost of freight transportation. The potential damage to pavement and bridges from heavy trucks is another concern, and a very complicated one. Maintenance costs and the physical load limits on a roadway are a function of its initial design, the quality of materials used, and the Technological innovation made rail- quality of the maintenance. Poorly designed roads can never survive heavy loads, nor roads possible, and support from can poorly maintained roads; however, better roads with stronger bridges can han- governments and private investors dle heavier trucks, especially when the trucks are designed with adequate axles and created extensive networks. large enough tires to limit the stress on pavement and bridges. Many analysts argue Regulatory and institutional develop- that the economic and environmental advantages of large trucks are very consider- ments allowed shipments to move able, so that it is well worth building roads and bridges that are sufficiently strong to across several systems, whether those carry heavy loads. systems were owned by different companies competing within the In summary, technologically it is possible to design highways to handle larger and same region (the case in North heavier trucks, but it is not as clear whether the institutional case for heavier trucks America) or spanned several countries will be won. At present, indications are that it will be easier to consider special truck (the case in Europe). Likewise, paved lanes, or designs that allow larger and heavier trucks, when new highways are being roads and diesel engines make truck developed rather than in cases where a well-developed highway link already exists. transportation possible, but government support and investment is necessary to create national and international highway networks capable of control will change the relative costs fuel efficiency and emission levels can handling heavy trucks. Regulatory, of the system and the system will, be improved through replacement of institutional, and political innovations over time, adjust. The freight will still the older, most inefficient vehicles. are needed to deal with the complex move, possibly at a higher cost. issues related to international truck shipments. Wherever trucks are used Productivity improvements in for international shipments, there are Because of the size of the vehicles freight transportation. Techno- concerns about driver qualifications, and — compared to automobiles — logical improvements such as stream- truck condition, truck size and the relatively small number of vehi- lining trucks to minimize air resis- weight, empty backhauls, and other cles, conversion to other energy tance, maintaining proper tire pres- issues. These concerns have little to sources is an option. Railroads origi- sure, and keeping the engine in tune, do with the technology or the net- nally ran on wood or coal, and if help fuel efficiency somewhat, work, but they must be dealt with to pressed, could do so again, either though not as much as operational maintain or enhance mobility. The through conversion to coal- or wood- improvements that minimize empty European Union’s efforts to dismantle fired locomotives or through electrifi- miles and maximize the use of a the regulatory hurdles to freight cation. Depending on the energy truck’s cargo space. movement between its member source and the technology used in Historically, improvements in freight states is probably the most important the power plant, electrification might mobility occurred for three reasons: current example of deregulation. The or might not help with emissions. lessons that the EU learns from lower- Trucks can also be converted to run ● Government and, to a lesser ing barriers to the free and rapid on alternative fuels, although the extent, private investments in movement of freight will be closely expense could be quite high. Both transport infrastructure resulted watched.

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Freight and concerns, and political activity will of Operational Sustainability: Key Information course play a role in this. Issues and Challenges Technology From this overview of freight mobility, we can identify the following “Intelligent Transportation Privatization and deregulation issues and challenges: Systems” (ITS) are technologies of the railroad industry. The pri- aimed at improving traffic man- vatization and deregulation of rail- ● agement and coordination roads in the United Kingdom, Can we maintain urban and among providers and users of Argentina, and the United States regional freight mobility in highway and intermodal trans- have received a large amount of areas of increasing congestion? portation. ITS includes numerous attention in the past 20 years. This To what extent will political applications that improve certain report is not the forum to debate the pressure favor auto over truck aspects of highway performance, success of those regulatory changes, mobility? Can we design better e.g., automatic monitoring of and both sides still wage a vigorous ways to move freight in cities? traffic, quicker response to acci- debate. However, it does seem clear A starting point would be to dents and other emergencies, that the declining rail market shares build cleaner and more fuel-effi- automated toll collection, weigh- relate much more to fundamental cient trucks for urban areas. in-motion scales for heavy trucks, changes in the freight market — i.e., ● How can we promote rational- and expedited customs proce- the clear advantages of trucks for so ization of the rail industry to dures. For freight, ITS offers some many shipments — than they do to reflect a proper balance hope of reducing congestion in inadequacies of regulation or of man- between and coordination cities and administration delays agement. A more important, longer- among rail and trucking opera- on highways. While the technolo- term question is how to develop tions? One step would be to gies have yet to play a major role more systems around the world that secure adequate amounts of in reducing congestion, the state provide efficient services in the mar- land and build better inter- of the art is advancing rapidly. ket segments best served by rail: modal systems for moving con- The Internet is becoming a critical tainers and trailers. factor for freight transportation. ● High-density, heavy-haul An obvious example is the rise in freight operations for bulk ● We need to build more mod- package deliveries due to online commodities. ern, heavy-haul rail corridors, shopping. But more importantly, and to develop modern high- by providing new capabilities for ● Containerized intermodal ser- way systems that allow effective exchanging data, facilitating busi- vices for general merchandise use of heavy trucks, perhaps by ness-to-business exchanges, and freight. isolating trucks in their own hosting supply-chain and inven- lanes or highways. Both steps tory-management programs, the ● Specialized commodities like would reduce highway conges- Internet serves as a platform for automobiles. tion and increase the safety and new types of business transac- comfort of auto drivers. tions that will affect freight flows, Efforts to boost the long-term viabili- prices of commodities, and prices ty of rail face many obstacles, not the These issues are large and complex. for transportation. These changes least of which is the paucity of land Their resolution would require sub- will improve the efficiency of the to develop large intermodal facilities stantial amounts of financial and markets and reduce costs both in and around cities, especially port political capital, and involve a great for commodities and for trans- cities. The operational sustainability of deal of institutional and public effort. portation. the system again clashes with issues Solutions would also have substantial of economic and social sustainability. impacts on the surrounding social Buying and developing land for inter- and natural environments. These In the context of environmental and modal facilities is a substantial invest- impacts are the subject of our next political sustainability, the same three ment of financial and political capital. section. forces are relevant. Technology can Public assistance is generally needed improve fuel efficiency, reduce emis- to claim land by eminent domain and sions, and extend the life of materials. make the necessary infrastructure Environmental and Social Better infrastructure facilitates opera- investments. Citizens in many cities Concerns Related to Freight tions that are inherently more fuel- resist new freight facilities because of Transport efficient, result in fewer emissions, the air pollution, noise, and conges- and reduce wear and tear on both tion they generate. Opponents can Energy use and CO2 emissions. vehicles and the roadways. Legal and cite a variety of other land uses that Freight is the “elephant in the cor- regulatory guidelines must balance pay more visible dividends to city ner” in energy-use and carbon-emis- the environmental and economic dwellers than freight facilities. sions debates. Overlooked in most

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public discussions, freight transporta- ton transported, for each mode and Energy Use of Ocean tion is responsible for 43% of both for each type of service. Freight items. Outside the OECD, trucks consume twice as much energy as light- In ocean shipping, vessel speed duty and passenger vehicles (UN Significant countervailing forces also capability trends have mirrored 2000). And the amount of freight exist, however. For more highly val- trends in fuel prices, since, as is that is carried on rail and domestic ued commodities, trip time and relia- true for other vehicles, higher waterborne transport, the two means bility are critical. The desire for speed, speed requires more fuel. For con- of freight transportation that use the in particular, is driven by the possibili- tainer ships, from the 1970s least energy, is steadily declining ty of reaching new markets for per- through the mid-1980s, as fuel worldwide. Overall, ocean freight ishables, reducing inventory costs for prices generally increased, average accounts for approximately 6% of highly valued commodities, and sim- speed of new vessels declined. transportation fuel use and transport- plifying supply chains. This force From the mid-1980s onward, related carbon-dioxide emissions. tends to shift some freight toward speeds have steadily increased smaller, more frequent shipments (Drewry 1999) — a trend likely using the faster modes, from barge to mirrored for other ship types. The Energy use in the freight industry is rail, from rail to truck, from large higher speeds offer greater sched- driven by the combined effect of two trucks to small trucks, and from sur- ule flexibility — in addition, the strong economic forces: cutting costs face transport to air freight. Unlike larger ships require faster speeds and increasing speeds. Reduction in the forces promoting cost reduction, to make up for the increased port transport cost is the dominant consid- this trend increases energy consump- time these ships require. The eration for the vast majority of the tion and dependence upon oil. smallest container ships (1,000 to tonnage that is shipped. The most 1,200 tonnes) average between powerful technological trend in cost 36 to 51 tonnes of fuel per day, reduction is the growth of larger, These opposing trends are both evi- while the larger ones (2,900 to more efficient vehicles that are man- dent today. Improvements in engines 3,100 tonnes) consume between aged more effectively over wider net- and in vehicle design have reduced 74 and 157 tonnes of fuel per day works. Per unit of freight carried, larg- fuel consumption in trucks. Large (Drewry 1999). er vehicles are inherently cheaper, tractor-trailer units hauling 20 tonnes lighter, and more energy-efficient. of freight typically consume 40 to 50 With larger vehicles, crew costs liters per hundred kilometers of diesel less fuel and road space than two or decline, line and terminal capacity fuel, and the best trucks may con- three smaller trucks but is also less increases, and the number of trips sume 30 to 35 liters per hundred kilo- maneuverable. The location of ware- required to move the same volume of meters. The use of larger, high-adhe- houses, the location and size of truck freight declines. This is true both sion locomotives greatly improved terminals, and the number of specific across modes — trains have larger fuel economy for heavy-haul rail- sites that require service, all affect the capacities and are more fuel-efficient roads. At present, freight moving in nature of trucks that will be used. As than trucks, and barges more so than large trucks, trains, barges, or ships the number of sites to be visited either — and for alternative choices does not consume a great deal of increases, multiple smaller trucks will available within a single mode. energy per tonne-kilometer shipped, be required, as there may not be time because large, fully loaded, well for a single larger truck to make all maintained vehicles are reasonably the deliveries. Thus, concentration of Larger trucks are significantly more fuel efficient. At the same time, the retail outlets allows larger trucks to energy-efficient than smaller trucks, gains in efficiency are more than off- make deliveries and reduces the truck and the emergence of bigger trucks is set in aggregate by growth in movements within a region. In a soci- clear, at least on American highways. demand and the shift to more ener- ety in which most people have auto- Between 1977 and 1992, the largest gy-intensive modes. The result is an mobiles, the burden of local freight trucks (Class 8 trucks, with average increased use of energy in freight distribution is shifted from the freight gross vehicle weights of more than transport. carriers using small trucks to con- 15,000 kilograms) grew from 29% to sumers driving their cars. 41% of the total US medium and heavy truck fleets. And Class 8 trucks At the urban and regional levels, the used 74% of the fuel used by trucks use of energy by freight varies with Essentially, freight moves on systems in Classes 3-8 (WEC 1998). The impe- the nature of the demand and with that offer the most appropriate mix tus to use larger vehicles is strong: geography and street patterns. For of speed and cost. Attempts to force although the main intent is not nec- instance, choosing the appropriate or encourage greater use of the more essarily to reduce energy costs, that is size of truck for local movements energy-efficient modes will fail if the the result. The long-term trend is to often involves a trade-off between total logistics costs and business reduce the energy requirements per energy consumption and congestion: opportunities truly favor faster trans- a medium-sized truck is likely to use port. When options that are more

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How Much Energy Does it Take to Get Cereal to the very attractive and their service Breakfast Table? acceptable.

Consider the energy consumed by freight transportation related to producing and delivering boxes of breakfast cereal to families in a developed world city. For simplici- Air-quality impacts. The various ty, assume that there are three main freight movements between the farm, the local freight modes have significantly dif- grain elevator, the production plant, and the supermarket. We can estimate the fuel ferent impacts on the local environ- consumed by each leg of the move using typical trip lengths, vehicles, and fuel effi- ment. Data from the United States ciency: (Figure 6-9) suggest that per unit of freight moved, trucks emit much Movement of grain in 10-tonne truckloads from the farm to a local grain eleva- more hydrocarbon, CO, or NO than tor (50 km @ 3.4 km per liter for the truck => 15 liters for the trip or 1.5 liters x either trains or barges. Once suitable per tonne). channels exist, barges are significantly Movement of the grain in 90-tonne hopper cars from the grain elevator to a cleaner than either trains or trucks. production facility (750 km @ 5 liters/1000 net tonne-kilometers => 3.9 liters per tonne). In general, heavy trucks account for a Movement of the grain in 20-tonne truckloads from the production plant 75 large share of certain elements of air kilometers to a local supermarket (75 km @ 2.1 km per liter => 1.8 liters per pollution. Figure 6-10 illustrates tonne). results from a 1987 study of emissions in the Federal Republic of If we assume that it takes a tonne of grain to make 2000 boxes of cereal and that Germany. The total emissions in each grain is in fact the only component of the cereal, i.e. no sugar and no preservatives, category are shown as an index of we find that it will take about 7 liters of fuel to get 2000 boxes of cereal to the 100. The middle bar in each cluster supermarket. Since cereal sells for about $3 per box, the entire shipment is worth shows the contribution from traffic, $6,000 and the cost of the fuel is inconsequential, whether the cost is $0.5 or $3 per including heavy vehicles (trucks and liter (or more). buses), automobiles, and light trucks. After the cereal is delivered to the supermarket, many individual shoppers will buy it Transport is the major source for and bring it home. If 1,000 people go shopping by car, traveling an average NOx, hydrocarbons, and carbon roundtrip distance of six kilometers to the supermarket, and if they each buy two monoxide. Heavy vehicles are most boxes of cereal and the cereal accounts for only 5% of what they buy, we can also important in terms of NOx and soot, estimate the fuel that they use to bring the cereal home: accounting for close to 20% of the total emissions in each case. Newer Bring the cereal home from the supermarket (1000 6-kilometer roundtrips at trucks are cleaner, but a continuing 8.5 km per liter => 6000 automobile-kilometers and 700 liters of fuel con- problem is that many very old, poorly sumed, of which 35 liters are attributable to the cereal). maintained trucks remain in service. Estimates from the American Trucking In this simplified case, the amount of fuel used by consumers in going to the store to Association suggest that diesel-oper- pick up the groceries is five times as great as the fuel consumed by trucks and trains ated heavy-duty trucks and buses to get the groceries to the store. The 2000 boxes of cereal in this example required were responsible for 18.5% of all US the equivalent of just 5 kilometers of travel in the farmers’ trucks, 8.3 kilometers in NOx emissions from mobile sources the railroad’s covered hopper, and 3.8 kilometers in the delivery truck, but 300 kilo- and for 27.5% of other particulate meters in the shoppers’ automobiles. The forces that created the supermarket have oxide emissions from mobile sources created an extremely efficient system for moving goods to the stores, but at the time (ATA 1998). required an increase in personal travel to buy the goods.

This example could be repeated for countless commodities, from clothing to kitchen The effects of trucks are particularly supplies to consumer electronics. Economies of scale in production allow mass pro- severe in urban environments. duction and national or global distribution that produce great savings for customers. Analysis of air quality in Mexico City Concentration of retail outlets eliminates the neighborhood stores, but allows further indicates that trucks, though consti- economies in distribution and storage for the retailer and access to a wider variety of tuting just over 10% of the vehicle products for the consumer. We are less likely to walk to the neighborhood markets, fleet (Zegras et al. 2000), contribute even if we have them, and we are more likely to drive to the mall, where we can buy between 35% (for carbon monoxide) whatever we want. Energy consumption and emissions related to freight transporta- and 81% (for PM ) of all transport- tion in most urban areas may be dominated by how we make our grocery trips. 10 related pollutants. (See Table 6-2).

energy-efficient can also compete on use of double-stack container trains in a cost or service basis, however, the North America; these efficient rail ser- In the United States, the market will respond quickly. A good vices attract traffic directly from the Environmental Protection Agency example is the rapid growth in the motor carriers because their cost is recently released rules for implement-

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Table 6-2. Transport contribution to total emissions — by vehicle type in Mexico City (1996)

PM10 SO2 CO NOx VOCs Cars and pickups 2.3% 7.8% 43.9% 19.6% 12.7% Colectivos 0.2% 1.0% 10.7% 3.7% 3.3% Taxis 0.5% 1.8% 10.2% 4.6% 2.9% Buses 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 3.2% 0.3% Trucks 20.8% 9.2% 34.3% 46.3% 13.5% Transport share of total 25.7% 20.2% 99.3% 77.3% 32.8% Trucks as % of total transport 81% 46% 35% 60% 41%

Source: CAM (1999).

ing more stringent controls for emis- pollution prevention was added, par- of noise and air pollution. Highways sions from heavy-duty vehicles. The tially due to increasing concern about and railways not only facilitate eco- new standard calls for a 50% reduc- emissions close to population centers nomic development at their end tion in nitrous oxides, along with (i.e., at ports) and in area’s of dense points, but also lead to peripheral reductions in hydrocarbons from ship traffic (i.e., the English Channel, economic development along their diesel trucks and buses. The EPA esti- the South China Sea, and the Strait of fringes, which can have further dele- mates the new standards will increase Malacca). When it comes into force, terious effects on the environment. the purchase price of a truck by $803 Annex VI will set limits on sulfur and (US EPA 2000b). nitrogen oxide emissions (including 4.5% m/m on the sulfur content of Similarly, human populations differ in fuel oil) and prohibit the deliberate their ability to absorb and manage Big ships are more energy-efficient release of ozone-depleting sub- the arrival of traffic and freight. than trucks or trains, but they are also stances. The Annex also allows for the Communities with agriculture and leading emitters of nitrogen, sulfur establishment of special “SOx retail businesses may welcome new dioxide, and diesel particulate. Oil Emission Control Areas” where the roads and rail lines, and the opportu- tankers, container and cargo carriers, sulfur content of fuel oil used on nities they offer to access new markets and cruise ships typically run on ships must not exceed 1.5% m/m and new products. Communities that bunker oil, the dirtiest and least (alternatively, ships may adopt other are more nomadic, or that survive by expensive form of fuel. Bunker oil, the technologies to limit SOx emissions). subsistence farming, may oppose residue of high-grade fuels, contains Currently, the protocol designates the freight infrastructure for the disrup- high concentrations of toxic com- Baltic Sea Area as a SOx Emission tion it brings to their ecosystems. pounds banned from use in many Control Area. other industries. The fuel is 5% sulfur and contains up to 5,000 times more An issue of considerable complexity is sulfur than diesel fuel. According to Social and environmental dis- the role of freight in extractive indus- the US Environmental Protection ruption to communities. The tries that do little to add enduring Agency, large ocean vessels emit expansion of highway or railway net- value to the regions that host them. 273,000 tons of nitrogen oxide per works can bring substantial econom- Freight transportation is not the year in the United States alone. ic opportunities to a region. Yet they cause of these activities, but it does also cause significant disruptions of enable them to exist. Examples natural and social environments. The include Africa, which has never had a Overall, shipping contribution to total disruptions vary in effect and magni- transcontinental rail system. Rather, emissions remains relatively low — an tude depending on the previous con- railroads developed to serve mines estimated 4% to 6% of sulfur emis- dition of the region. The expansion and other inland economic endeavors sions (4.1 to 5.9 million tonnes per of a highway around an already and deliver their products to ocean year), 7% to 14% of global nitrogen bustling city will have much less ports. Similarly, Western timber, min- oxide emission (4.5 to 9 million effect than building a new highway ing, and energy companies devel- tonnes per year), 1% to 3% of CFCs through a formerly pristine rain for- oped freight roads into the rain (2,700 to 5,400 tonnes), and 10% est. Construction of a highway forests of Latin America and (272 to 363 tonnes) of halon emis- inevitably involves degradation and Indonesia to extract the valuable sions (IMO 1998b; Corbett and division of ecosystems, runoff, and resources in those regions. These Fischbeck 1997). However, in 1997 a other pollutants, and the resulting industries and the freight infrastruc- new Annex (VI) to MARPOL on air traffic produces substantial amounts ture they build can cause tremendous

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Freight and Environmental Trade-offs Environmental concerns related to ocean shipping. Ocean shipping Understanding the sustainability concerns related to freight transport requires an raises some of the same concerns as examination of trade-offs between different kinds of environmental and social inland navigation: to facilitate the disruption. loading and unloading of large ships, ports often need to be dredged, caus- For instance, large commercial barges are among the most energy-efficient forms of ing significant disruption of the ambi- transportation, and are widely favored for their ability to move large commodity ent ecosystem. However, the most shipments off roads and highways, thus reducing congestion, air pollution, and high-profile and visible environmental potential for accidents and noise. Nonetheless, their use can cause damage to the concerns related to ocean shipping rivers and canals they travel, and in particular, they often require extremely disrup- are the possibility of oil tanker acci- tive damming and dredging operations in order to make waterways navigable. dents in the ocean. Similarly, if a freight link is being added to a pristine virgin environment, air transport — being completely localized in its impact — can be much less disruptive to the local environment than a road or railroad. However, air is much more expensive and also The ultimate environmental impacts much less energy-efficient. There are similar trade-offs in the choice of materials. For of shipping revolve around the major instance, rail ties treated with creosote cannot be recycled. One suggested alterna- trade networks, which themselves tive is the use of tropical hardwoods used to make very durable ties, avoiding the use overlay across a variety of ecosystems of creosote. However, that promotes logging in tropical rain forests, which is often (marine and coastal). The environ- not an acceptable alternative. mental risk depends on the ecosystem — i.e., polar/subpolar, temper- Clearly, there are also important trade-offs with efficiency. Barges are slower than ate, tropical/subtropical. For example, trains, and trains are slower than trucks. Trucks are the most energy-intensive of the oil does not easily break down in three alternatives as well as the most polluting. They are also the most flexible, how- polar areas or in fragile tropical envi- ever, and offer a level of service significantly superior to that of trains and barges for ronments (i.e., coastal mangroves, the movement of many manufactured goods. coral reefs), while in temperate areas — with greater variability in weather — the problem is less severe. The overall disruptions to the natural and social ronmental effects of (1) construction risk is proportional to traffic density environments they enter. Moreover, it of the new link, (2) disruption or and is thus highest in places like the is unclear what long-term value or destruction of particularly important southern North Sea and in approach- reward the majority of the inhabitants environments, (3) the fragmentation es to major ports (Smith 1995). of those regions reap from hosting of the natural environment, and (4) these activities, all of which are non- the attraction of further develop- renewable and face resource deple- ment along the right-of-way. The The high-profile Torrey Canyon disas- tion end dates. Some industries man- first three issues also arise with the ter, which spilled 120,000 barrels of age the social and environmental construction of pipelines in remote oil into the seas off the British coast in impacts of their operations better areas, where habitat destruction and 1967, created the momentum for the than others. Unfortunately, the poorly interference with species’ migration first major international convention to managed ones generate the most patterns are also concerns. deal with shipping’s environmental attention and have the greatest effect problems. By 1973, the International on public opinion regarding future Maritime Organization (IMO) adopt- operations. Environmental concerns related ed the International Convention for to domestic waterborne trans- the Prevention of Pollution from port. Although barges on inland Ships, which was modified by proto- Building infrastructure in developing waterways are very fuel-efficient and col in 1978 and today is commonly regions often has unintended effects low-emission modes of freight trans- known as MARPOL 73/78. As addi- and consequences. For instance, a port, the engineering projects tional environmental concerns from road built to accommodate timber required to make a river navigable shipping have become apparent companies may open a region to and swift for commercial barges — MARPOL has been amended through small farmers or ranchers who fre- the dredging and dams, levees, and several annexes, some of which are quently engage in unsustainable agri- locks — all have disruptive effects on not yet in force (annexes come into cultural practices. a river’s ecosystem and species. force when they have been accepted Perhaps the most notable effect is that by at least 15 states accounting for eliminating thousands of acres of wet- not less than 50% of world merchant As a result of such complex, often lands and marshes along a river’s bank shipping tonnage). unintended consequences, plans for can make a river flow faster and new transportation networks in straighter, but also leave the sur- remote regions often trade off likely rounding areas vulnerable to flooding. While major oil spills continue to gar- economic benefits versus the envi- ner the most attention related to oil

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pollution in the seas, the most com- 1997). Noise pollution related to mar- 1990s — from 1990 to the middle of mon source of oil pollution is during itime activity is also a concern. 1997, 99 bulk carriers sank, killing normal operations — as much as Shipping is the largest source of low- 654 people. The age of ships, and 92% of oil that enters the sea does frequency, underwater noise, with subsequent structural failure, particu- so as a result of cleaning of cargo noise levels increasing proportional to larly in heavy weather, is a major residues and during loading and dis- ship size, speed, and load. On busy cause. And, while regulations and charge (IMO 1998a). Nonetheless, sea lanes, continuous noise levels can standards can help, they often result the tragedy of major oil spills due to be serious, and dredging can also be in a shifting of aged vessels from tanker accidents continues to be a an important noise source. The ulti- routes with strict inspections to those concern. The current timetable tar- mate ecosystem and species effects where regulations are not as rigorous- gets the elimination of most single- are not well known, however (Dotinga ly enforced (IMO 1999). hull oil tankers by 2015; since 1996, and Elferink 2000). The IMO has not all new oil tankers must be built with apparently been active on this front, double hulls. Evidence suggests sig- and there are not widespread experi- Recent analysis of container ship inci- nificant progress already. The num- ences with options to address aquatic dents (Wang and Foinikis 2001) indi- ber of major oil spills fell from 36 noise acoustic pollution. One option in cates that these account for about recorded in 1979 to an average of particularly sensitive areas is the estab- 7% of total oceangoing incidents. around eight per year in the 1980s. lishment of marine protected areas Unlike incidents for most other ship In 1994, approximately 71,000 (MPAs) — wholly or partially banning types, container ships suffer from a tonnes of oil spilled into the sea due navigation from certain areas — high share of incidents caused by to tanker accidents — 60% of the although history has seen that free- shore error, which results in a signifi- average (IMO 1996). dom of navigation has received priori- cant share of cargo damage effects. ty over environmental concerns in the Also, in contrast to other ship types, use of MPAs (Spadi 2001). available data suggests that younger Concerning water pollution, the IMO container ships have a higher inci- (1997) estimates that ships and mar- dent rate — a rate that decreases itime transportation accounts for For ports and harbors, recent research with age. This may be due to crew about 22% of the wastes dumped suggests that the priority issues for and shore personnel accustoming into the sea each year. Ship dumping management have been water quality, themselves to new designs. can have considerable local impacts, dredging, port development, dust, since such activity is typically concen- and noise (Wooldridge et al. 1999). trated in specific marine areas of high As noted above in connection with Railroad accidents, especially acci- transit. the discussion of infrastructure issues, dents involving hazardous cargo, are competition for alternative uses of a concern in many places. Much haz- land in urban-area ports will certainly ardous cargo that might otherwise Of growing concern is the transport be a major issue with ongoing growth move by truck moves by rail because of ballast water (used to provide bal- in shipping; for the development of of the generally good safety record of ance for empty vessels). An estimated new ports, concerns over ecosystem the railroads. However, when a derail- 11 billion tonnes of ballast water is effects will also prove to be a point of ment does occur, significant volumes transferred around the world each serious contention (see, for example, of hazardous material may be year, carrying at any one time some Kendra 1997). involved. 4,500 marine species and introducing a marine species to a new environment every nine weeks (Pughiuc Safety. The transportation of freight Although the media often sensation- 2001). The IMO is currently drafting is associated with a variety of safety alize the danger of freight trucks, regulations covering ballast water as concerns. For example, although trucking is a dangerous profession well as addressing the use of anti- shipping safety has certainly and the fatalities to drivers and auto fouling paints on ship hulls. increased over time, accidents, partic- passengers are rising as more trucks ularly sinkings, continue to pose a come into service. In the United threat to those working on ships. An States in 1999 there were 758 large Another major environmental effect estimated 1,100 lives are lost at sea truck-occupant fatalities (US DOT arises from dredging, the majority of each year due to maritime disasters, NHTSA 1999b). Public concern over which occurs to keep harbors, rivers, with a comparable number dying large trucks, especially those hauling and other waterways open for pas- due to other causes (i.e., on-board two trailers, is one of the chief obsta- sage. Dredging accounts for some accidents, etc.) (Nielsen and Roberts cles to the expansion of their use. 80% to 90% of all material dumped at 1999). The threat generally, but not sea, and approximately 10% of always, grows with the age of the dredged material contains heavy con- fleet. For example, according to the The principal cause of truck accidents centrations of toxic metals, petroleum IMO (1999), bulk carriers’ safety is driver fatigue, a problem that gov- compounds, and pesticides (IMO record began deteriorating in the ernments and industry associations

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seek to curb with rules on length of scarce urban space is involved. In trips and required hours of rest. many parts of the developing world, However, such rules are hard to national freight networks are relative- enforce effectively, and oftentimes ly immature, although more severe fatigue-related accidents are associat- problems of a paucity of urban land ed with a violation of the rules. and a lack of financing pose high hurdles. Russia, China, and India all face the prospect of massive transitions CONCLUSIONS from rail-based to truck-based freight. There is much to learn from the expe- The image of a tired trucker driving riences of the developed world in this on a crowded highway is a fitting one context. to conclude our discussion of sustainable mobility and freight transportation. Trucks are the key vehicles that carry goods to and from their end users and link them to the other parts of the freight network. Trucks symbol- ize the economic and operational efficiency of freight transportation in 2000. Their flexibility enables trucks to penetrate the most remote jungles and, via a port and an ocean tanker, deliver goods directly to a consumer’s doorstep. That capability allows trucks to take market share from rail and barges, their slower, but more energy-efficient competitors. Yet the ubiquitous service that truck drivers provide also puts them in the greatest contact with other citizens. Trucks create many of freight’s hurdles to sustainable mobility, bringing in their wake air pollution, accidents, congestion, noise, and environmental and infrastructure degradation, and public protests of all of these problems.

Potential solutions for the problems generated by trucks demonstrate the financial, political, and technological hurdles to sustainable mobility throughout the freight system. More heavy-haul rail lines can be built, connecting more intermodal freight facilities, so that cargoes can move on railways, trucks, or ocean tankers as appropriate. Second, new routes for trucks — either isolated express lanes or entirely new roads — can be built. And third, quieter, more fuel-efficient, less-polluting trucks can be brought to market. Any one of these solutions would require substantial investments of money to achieve. Quite apart from the investment required, community and public concerns related to potential loss of land will need to be addressed, particularly where

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seven

world mobility and the challenge to its sustainability

Both personal and freight mobility is at an unprecedented level for the great majority of the population in the developed world. However, personal mobility varies significantly by age, income, and location. In contrast, most of the citizens of the developing world suffer either from poor or deteriorating mobility. The central problem is that cities in the developing world are growing and motorizing very rapidly. In order to achieve sustainable mobility by the middle of the 21st century, at least seven mobility-related “grand challenges” will have to be overcome. Moreover, an additional challenge going beyond mobility — the creation of the institutional capability able to taking on such “grand challenges” — will have to be faced. Indeed, the limited capability of the world’s institutions to deal with the sort of long-term, complex problems reflected in the “grand challenges” may turn out to be the greatest obstacle of all to achieving sustainable mobility.

At the beginning of this report, we observed that in most cases, mobility is not an end in itself but rather a means to an end — by overcoming distance, mobility makes people and goods more accessible. It can offer every citizen access to employment, education, health care, leisure activities with family and friends, and all the other economic, social, and cultural opportunities that can enrich modern life. We identified a number of measures that might be used as benchmarks in judging how well the world’s mobility systems are fostering accessibility. Then we reviewed the performance of the world’s current mobility systems, using our benchmarks in Chapters 2 through 6 to assess worldwide mobility and the challenges we face in sustaining it. This chapter summarizes the condition of mobility in the developed and developing world at the end of the twentieth century.

www.wbcsdmobility.org 7-1 worldwide mobility and the challenge to its sustainability

IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD ability of public transport disadvan- aircraft used in commercial service tages individuals who do not have has been declining for at least the Personal mobility is at its highest level access to automobiles because of low past decade. The increased use of for the great majority of developed- income or age. smaller aircraft, combined with the world populations, but mobility (and growth of air travel, has offset tech- accessibility in general) varies signifi- nological improvements in energy cantly by age, income, and location. Road construction has not kept pace efficiency. Energy use in air travel has High levels of freight mobility are with travel growth — indeed, there grown at rates substantially higher providing residents of the developed are serious doubts that it could or than the rates of growth in the use of world with an unprecedented degree even should do so. Congestion might other transportation fuels, a trend of choice among goods and services. not be as bad as those who are projected to continue. According to Light-duty vehicles (automobiles and directly affected perceive it to be, but the US Energy Information Agency, light trucks) are the major providers by virtually any measure, it is grow- developed-country fuel use for air of personal mobility, not merely in ing. In some major urban areas, con- transportation will grow at twice the North America but in Europe and gestion is no longer confined to tradi- rate of fuel use for road transporta- developed Asia. The number of light- tional peak commuting periods; it tion over the next couple of decades duty vehicles per capita and the extends through much of the day. (3.0% per year versus 1.5% per year). annual per-capita use of these vehicles continue to grow. An extraordinarily high share (96%) Air transportation’s contribution to air of developed-world transportation pollution is surprisingly large and The share of developed-world popu- depends on petroleum-based fuels. growing. Airports are major local lation living in urban areas is high Developed-world transport energy sources of emissions of “convention- and increasing, albeit slowly. In 1975, demand accounts for about 65% of al” pollutants, which come not only the level of urbanization in the devel- total world transportation energy from idling aircraft engines, but also oped world was 70%; by 2000 it demand. from passenger ground traffic and exceeded 75%, and is projected to from the freight, fuel, and mainte- reach nearly 85% by 2030 (UN nance vehicles that support an air- 2001). At the same time, population Vehicle-related emissions of pollutants port’s operations. In addition, airliners density is declining in and around the that contribute to adverse impacts on emit various substances, including cities of most developed countries. In public health have stabilized and are carbon dioxide, at high altitude, Chapter 3 our data showed popula- declining in many developed coun- which significantly magnifies the tion density trends (measured as per- tries. Public policy — principally global warming potential of these sons per square kilometer) for 15 lower vehicle emissions standards emissions. major developed-world urban areas aided by technological improvements in Europe, North America, Japan, and in fuels — has enabled major reduc- Australia. Over the 30-year period tions in emissions per vehicle-mile. Air transportation is now a crucial from 1960 to 1990, population den- Slow fleet turnover and increased means of travel between cities of the sity fell in all of those 15 areas. Seven vehicle use have caused actual in-use developed world, but capacity con- urban areas — Amsterdam, emissions reductions to be lower than straints relating both to airports and Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, the technological improvements to airways are beginning to result in London, Paris, and Washington — might suggest. growing delays, especially in the experienced declines in population “core” of Western Europe and the tri- density of 30% or greater. These con- angle formed by Chicago-Boston- trasting trends of cities growing larg- In contrast, transportation-related Washington in the United States. Yet er, but at reduced densities, can be emissions of pollutants that con- the obstacles to air travel, such as directly traced to two related causes. tribute to global warming are increas- congested airports and the difficulty First, the widespread availability and ing in virtually all developed coun- of building new runways or new air- growing use of the automobile, and tries. The improvements in energy ports, and the air pollution that second, the growth of suburbs efficiency are more than offset by results from air travel, are relatively around cities that are created for, and increases in the number of vehicles, neglected. Substantial attention is dependent on, automobile-driving by changes in vehicle mix, and by devoted to achieving reductions in residents. increases in vehicle use. aircraft noise. Technological improvements make new planes quieter, and in some cases older planes have been Suburbs and low-density urban areas Air travel is growing rapidly through- retrofitted to reduce their noise levels. work against “conventional” public out the developed world, especially transport by reducing the number of in North America. Even though load “high volume” origin and destination factors (the percentage of seats filled) High-speed rail is making inroads pairs. The consequent reduced avail- have been rising, the average size of against both air travel and the auto-

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mobile in some markets. It is especial- show what we consider to be the In many developing countries, motor- ly popular in high-density, shorter- performance of the developed world ization rates (as measured by the haul intercity markets in Japan and as a whole. Some areas of the devel- number of vehicles per thousand per- Europe, and additional high-speed oped world clearly perform better sons) are still low compared to the rail tracks and trains are being built in than others, but we do not attempt developed world, but they are grow- both regions. Interest in high-speed to differentiate. The figure also shows ing rapidly. Motorization rates are at rail is growing in the United States, performance trends in each of the the levels typical of Europe in the but it is still much too early to deter- measures. 1950s and 1960s and are growing at mine whether this increased interest similar rates. will translate into high-speed train systems actually being built, and their IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD being popular enough to make a The majority of individuals in the measurable difference in US intercity Most of the citizens of the developing developing world are unable to afford transportation patterns. world suffer from poor and/or deteri- automobiles, and public transport orating mobility conditions. The cen- remains their principal means of tral problem is that cities of the devel- motorized mobility. Unfortunately, Freight systems are moving larger oping world are growing and motor- public transport systems are strug- and larger quantities of goods both izing very rapidly. They have not had gling to keep up with growing within the developed world and the time or the money to build new demand and to maintain service lev- between the developing world and infrastructure or to adapt to new els as they compete for space with the developed world. Containerized mobility technologies. The cities autos and trucks. Congestion caused systems are replacing traditional house and transport too many peo- by the rapidly growing number of “breakbulk” systems, especially for ple, on insufficient numbers of poorly private automobiles, various forms of international and longer-haul domes- maintained roads and rails, and gen- “official” and “unofficial” public tic freight movements. The most effi- erally lack the money and institutional transport vehicles, and freight-carry- cient method for moving freight long vigor to fix the problems. ing trucks is causing gridlock condi- distances over land is high-capacity, tions in many cities of the developing heavy-haul rail. Such systems are not world. Congestion on the streets, common outside North America, In 1950, less than 30% of the world’s combined with land-use and real- however, and as a result, more and population dwelt in urbanized areas. estate patterns that push low-income more developed-country freight is By 2005, that share will be 50%, and residents to the physical margins of being transported by truck. most of this increase is occurring in their cities, disproportionately affects the developing world. “Megacities” poor people. In addition, congestion, of more than 10 million people are poor driving habits, and inadequate Developed-country freight systems now a defining characteristic of the traffic controls make the search for consume a large and growing share developing world. In 2000, 15 of the mobility a hazardous endeavor; traffic of transportation energy. Excluding 19 megacities were in developing fatalities and accidents are a serious maritime, freight energy demand nations. By 2015, 18 of the 23 public health issue in many cities of constituted 26% of total developed- megacities will be in the developing the developing world. country transportation energy world. demand in 1995; this is projected to rise to nearly 30% by 2020. In contrast to the situation in the Population density trends in and developed world, emissions of pollu- around the cities of the developing tants that contribute to public health Competition is growing between world are not as unambiguous as in problems are growing in the develop- freight and passenger systems for the developed world. Of six large ing world. The ambient levels of access to existing infrastructure (both urban areas in Asia — Hong Kong, these pollutants exceed — often by highways and rail) and for the finan- Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, several times — their levels in devel- cial resources necessary to build and Singapore, and Surabaya — three of oped-world cities because of several upgrade infrastructure. them — Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, interrelated factors. The extremely and Manila — show steady declines in rapid growth in the number of motor population density over a 30-year vehicles, the slow turnover of motor A Developed-World period. Two of the remaining three — vehicle fleets, poor-quality fuel, lags Sustainability Scorecard Jakarta and Surabaya — show declines in adopting advanced vehicle pollu- Figure 7-1 shows how the developed over the 1980–1990 period. Only tion control technologies, and poor world performs according to the sus- Singapore experienced an increase vehicle maintenance all contribute to tainability measures that were defined between 1980 and 1990, though its the environmental problems. in Chapter 1. The measures are not population density in 1990 was still ranked in order of importance. For below the levels of 1960 and 1970 each of them, we use a color key to (Demographia 2001).

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Transportation services are fueling a the measures of sustainable mobility destruction of habitats. Of these rapid rise in the developing world’s proposed in Chapter 1, and what the issues, the most difficult is likely use of petroleum. Total developing- trends are. to be global climate change. world energy consumption for trans- Although improvements in the portation grew from seven million energy efficiency of individual barrels per day (oil-equivalent) in MAJOR CHALLENGES TO automobiles are certainly possi- 1990, to 11 million barrels per day in ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE ble, achieving major and 1999. It is projected to reach 23 mil- MOBILITY durable reductions in green- lion barrels per day in 2015. This house-gas emissions from the means that the developing world’s With Respect to Light-Duty, developed world’s light-duty share of total worldwide transporta- Personal-Use, Privately Owned vehicle fleet will probably tion energy use rose from 33% in Motor Vehicles require an eventual shift away 1990 to 34% in 1999, and is project- from carbon-based fuels. ed to reach 44% in 2015 (EIA The developed world relies on per- 2001).1 Transport-related greenhouse sonally owned, light-duty vehicles as • The automobile’s significant gas emissions in the developing its principal source of personal mobil- contribution to death and injury world are growing even more rapidly ity in most urbanized areas, and espe- of occupants and pedestrians in as a share of the total. cially in their suburban fringes. One motor vehicle accidents. major (perhaps even the major) chal- Although the death rate per unit lenge to sustainable mobility in the of exposure is down in almost Transportation infrastructure in the developed world is somehow to pre- all developed countries — and developing world is inadequate and serve the desirable characteristics of sharply down in some — the suffers from lack of maintenance. For automobile-based systems while aging of developed-country example, China has a road infrastruc- reducing (or, preferably, eliminating) populations will cause an ture of about one million kilometers, their nonsustainable characteristics, increase in light-duty vehicle but most of this infrastructure is two- which include: accidents and deaths. Much lane, with marked side paths for more attention will have to be bicycles and tractors. Only about paid to the particular require- • The adverse consequences of 6,000 kilometers can be considered ments of elderly drivers, passen- automobility for certain groups “highway” as that term is conven- gers, and pedestrians. in society (especially the poor tionally understood in the developed and the elderly) who often can- world. China’s rail system, though • The automobile’s contribution not obtain access to essential extensive in size, has been compared to congestion in many of the aspects of life: work, school, in scope (Alberts et al. 1997) to that developed world’s urban areas. doctors, stores, friends, and rela- of the United States at the time of Although highway infrastructure tives. In the case of the poor, the Civil War. needs to be increased and bet- loss of access to employment ter maintained, it is not possible opportunities is a particular con- to “build our way out of concern. Meeting this challenge will The construction and maintenance of gestion.” Vehicles are going to probably require either reversing roads, bridges, and railways are have to use roads more effi- the declining competitiveness of swamped by the growth in mobility ciently. This may mean the “conventional” forms of public demand. Air transportation demand widespread use of intelligent transport as urban densities fall growth is projected to be greatest in transportation systems that pro- or, more likely, developing new the developing world, yet construc- vide drivers with better informa- and more appropriate “uncon- tion of the airports to support this tion and permit more vehicles ventional” public transport alter- growth is lagging. Developing-world to occupy a given amount of natives. freight-transportation systems are space safely. It may also mean heavily dependent on trucks except the widespread use of conges- in the few countries with extensive • The light-duty vehicle’s contri- tion charges or other means of rail networks, chiefly China, India, bution to various environmental pricing the use of infrastructure. and Russia. However, these aging rail and ecological problems. These networks often are poorly positioned range from emission of sub- The sustainability challenges relating to serve the present freight trans- stances responsible for global to light-duty vehicles in the develop- portation needs of their countries. climate change, to emissions of ing world differ both in kind and in pollutants responsible for local magnitude from those in the devel- or regional public health prob- oped world. These challenges gener- A Developing-World lems, to the effect of light-duty ally stem from the speed with which Sustainability Scorecard vehicles on other environmental motorization is occurring in many Figure 7-2 shows how the developing and ecological problems such developing countries. world is performing with regard to as water pollution and the

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Figure 7.1 Sustainability scorecard — developed world

Level Direction Measures to be increased Access to means of personal mobility + Equity in access – Appropriate mobility infrastructure – Inexpensive freight transportation +

Measures to be reduced Congestion – “Conventional” emissions + Greenhouse gas emissions – Transportation noise + Other environmental impacts – Disruption of communities – Transportation-related accidents + Transportations’ demand for nonrenewable energy = Transportation-related solid waste +

Figure 7.2 Sustainability scorecard — developing world

Level Direction Measures to be increased

Access to means of mobility +

Equity in access ?

Appropriate mobility infrastructure –

Inexpensive freight transportation +

Measures to be reduced

Congestion –

“Conventional” emissions –

Greenhouse gas emissions –

Transportation noise –

Other environmental impacts –

Disruption of communities –

Transportation-related accidents –

Transportations’ demand for nonrenewable energy =

Transportation-related solid waste ? Key: the particular measure is at an unacceptable and/or dangerous level the level is of concern and needs improvement the level is acceptable or shows signs of becoming so

+ indicates that the situation appears to be moving in the desired direction

– suggests that the situation appears to be deteriorating = no clear direction is apparent

? available information is not enough to make a judgment

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• Motorization in developing the destruction of habitat in the here. But congestion pricing countries is permitting both developing world than in the mechanisms might find wide urbanization and suburbaniza- developed world. Also, because application in the developing tion. This tends to exacerbate the total number of vehicles in world. the gap between the poor and the developing world is lower the growing middle classes of than in the developed world, With Respect to Passenger Rail these countries, with the latter greenhouse-gas emissions from Systems gaining better access to jobs light-duty vehicles in develop- and other amenities because of ing-world countries are not now Although these systems — especially their growing incomes. As in nearly as large as in developed the newer, higher-speed systems in the developed world, motoriza- countries. But the rapid growth Europe and Japan — are attracting tion and suburbanization tend of the light-duty vehicle fleet, if greater numbers of passengers, the to undercut the viability of maintained into the future, is economic sustainability of rail passen- “conventional” public transport threatening to change that pic- ger systems remains a major concern. systems; more than in the ture drastically. Carbon emis- One can make the case that the developed world, “unconven- sions from transportation in the social benefits of rail systems partially tional” forms of public transport developing world (largely (or even fully) pay back the deficit have been springing up. The reflecting light-duty vehicle car- between their revenues and their degree of reliance on public bon emissions) are projected to costs, but this is open to dispute. In transport by the poor and the equal carbon emissions from any event, rail passenger systems less wealthy in developing transportation in the developed around the world typically run sub- countries, however, means that world by about 2015 (EIA 2001, stantial deficits, representing a drain the loss of competitiveness of p. 185). To the extent that in- on the budgets of the governments public transport is an even use energy efficiencies of devel- that support them. greater burden in this part of oping-world, light-duty vehicles the world. Although the age lag those in the developed • While rail passenger systems, if structure of the population in world, this crossover could sufficiently patronized, emit far most developing countries is occur sooner. fewer “conventional” pollutants quite different from that in and greenhouse gases per pas- developed countries, with • The level of traffic-related acci- senger-kilometer than do other younger people constituting a dents and deaths is substantial means of intercity passenger much larger share, the number and, in many places, on the transportation, they are not of poor and elderly means that rise. Though occupant-restraint necessarily environmentally declining accessibility likely puts systems are sometimes installed benign. If they are powered by even greater strains on urban in vehicles, they are not widely electricity, and if that electricity life in developing countries. used. The vehicles themselves is generated by methods other Those who are both poor and are less crashworthy than those than hydro or nuclear power, old find the situation especially in developed countries. passenger rail systems are difficult. Roadside obstructions are much responsible for some level of more prevalent, and often greenhouse-gas emissions. All • The environmental challenges much less forgiving when rail systems also generate emis- to light-duty vehicle sustainabili- struck. Pedestrians and bicyclists sions of nitrogen oxides, sulfur ty are of a different order. In are particularly at risk, especially oxides, and particulates. Also, contrast to the situation in when they must share the road the construction of railways, like many developed-world coun- with cars, buses, and trucks. the construction of roads and tries, emissions of “convention- airports, may involve the al” pollutants from light-duty • Congestion levels have become destruction of habitats and gen- vehicles are increasing, some- legendary in many developing erate water pollution. times rapidly so, in developing countries, especially in Latin countries. Pollution concentra- America and in developing Asia. tions of ozone, sulfur oxides, The lack of highway infrastruc- • Rail stations are usually located nitrogen oxides, particulates, ture is acute, and poor mainte- in central cities, and when their and even lead are at very high nance of existing highway tracks are not underground, levels and are rising in many infrastructure contributes to they may be major sources of developing-world cities. The congestion problems. The cost noise and may divide communi- construction of roads to accom- of intelligent transportation sys- ties physically. In addition, rail modate the growing number of tems is likely beyond the reach terminals need to accommo- light-duty and commercial vehi- of most developing countries, date large numbers of people, cles may well be contributing so this congestion remedy may and they often cause significant more to water pollution and to have much less to contribute traffic congestion in their imme-

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diate locale. Though rail termi- moded, productivity-draining jurisdic- recent years, particularly in the nals are often tied in to existing tional arrangements. Opposition to developed world, the number public transportation systems, the expansion of existing airports and of aircraft operations has been such as subways, the declining the construction of new airports growing rapidly enough to off- competitiveness of these exist- means that expanding the capacity of set much of the benefit. As far ing public transportation sys- the air transportation system is likely as traffic congestion is con- tems means that they serve less to prove quite difficult. In the devel- cerned, the tens of millions of well to connect railroads with oping world, these challenges lie passengers arriving at airports, prospective passengers. more in the future. Levels of air travel often in single-passenger light- are quite low at present, but are pro- duty vehicles, cause these facili- • Locating new passenger rail jected to grow rapidly. Growth in air ties to be major centers of traf- routes and terminals is in itself a travel is viewed favorably by many fic congestion. major challenge. These systems governments and their populations, require approximately as much so siting airports seems to be less of a For Motorized Freight land for their rights-of-way as problem. Transportation do limited-access expressways. If they use high-speed equip- Trucks bear the greatest burden in • The environmental challenges ment, they have less flexibility providing freight mobility and have to the sustainability of air trans- in their routing than do express- always been the principal motorized portation relate to its growth ways — they cannot tolerate means of distributing freight locally. and to the inherently poor significant grades or sharp Until relatively recently (at least in the energy efficiency of this mode. turns. If electrified, the over- developed world), their role in the Air transportation presently head wires and support posts movement of freight between cities accounts for about 11% of total are considered unsightly, and was secondary to that of the rail- transportation energy con- their speed and relative silence roads. Over the last 50 years, howev- sumption. By 2015, this is pro- of operation cause safety con- er, trucks have eclipsed railroads in jected to rise to 13%. These cerns in the communities the movement of intercity freight in consumption levels alone through which they pass. the countries of the developed world. would qualify air transportation As countries in the developing world as a major source of green- • Where new and dedicated pas- move increasing volumes of freight house gases; however, it is senger rail routes cannot be from their hinterlands to their cities becoming understood that air built, passenger trains must and ports, it is trucks that haul the transportation’s contribution to share the track with freight bulk of these goods. global climate change signifi- trains. In some countries, where cantly exceeds its share of ener- the share of freight moved by gy use because airplanes release • Trucks create several environ- rail is quite small, this may not pollutants at high altitudes. mental problems. First, most present much of a problem. Shifting to non–carbon-based trucks are powered by compres- However, passenger trains’ fuels is less feasible for air trans- sion-ignition (i.e., diesel) near-exclusive use of these portation than it is for motor engines. This improves their effi- rights-of-way severely limits the vehicles. ciency relative to spark-ignition extent to which these countries (i.e., gasoline- or natural can shift freight from their gas–powered) engines, but roads to rail. In other countries, • Large airports, of which there diesels emit greater quantities of such as the United States, the are a significant number in the nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, problem of coordinating developed world, are a major and particulates than do gaso- freight, intercity passenger rail, source of emissions for pollu- line- or natural gas–powered and commuter rail is already tants such as nitrogen oxides. trucks. However, these quite significant and is growing These emissions are produced nondiesel power plants cannot more so. not only by the aircraft, but also be used by the larger trucks for by the large numbers of service long-distance intercity freight vehicles at these airports, and haulage. Diesel emissions are With Respect to Air Travel by the light-duty vehicles and being reduced in developed buses that bring travelers to and countries through a combina- This mode of transportation may be from airports. tion of improved combustion strangled by its own success. In the technology, particulate traps, developed world, many airports • Airports are also major sources and lower-sulfur diesel fuel. But already exceed capacity, and delays of noise and traffic congestion. fleet turnover for diesel trucks is are increasing. Air traffic control sys- Although the noise produced even slower than for light-duty tems are heavily overloaded and, in by aircraft landing or departing vehicles. Most diesel-powered some areas, are burdened with out- has been greatly reduced in

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trucks on the road today are several years old and emit far on high-speed motorways also challenges into seven “grand chal- more pollutants than their creates safety concerns. To be lenges”: newest, most advanced peers. sure, much of the safety problem is the responsibility of the Moreover, these existing diesel • Ensure that our transportation passenger vehicles and their trucks seem particularly prone systems continue to play their less-experienced drivers, but the to poor maintenance, which essential role in economic accidents that occur are a seri- degrades their emissions perfor- development and, through the ous concern, whether they are mance significantly. The emis- mobility they provide, serve caused by trucks or cars. sions gap between aging and essential human needs, and advanced diesel engines is most enhance the quality of life. pronounced in the cities of the • Trucks also can contribute to developing world. The truck infrastructure degradation. If fleets there are older, their roads are not built to handle • Adapt the personal-use motor maintenance may be less exact- high axle loads, truck traffic can vehicle to the future accessibili- ing, and their contribution to literally pound roads and ty needs/requirements of the air pollution is significant. bridges to pieces. In developing populations of the developed countries, where road infras- and developing worlds (capaci- tructure is often poorly con- ty, performance, emissions, fuel • The sheer number of trucks structed and maintained, high use, materials requirements, used to haul freight means that volumes of truck traffic can be ownership structure, etc.). these vehicles are major con- especially damaging. tributors to greenhouse-gas • Reinvent the concept of public emissions. Worldwide, it is esti- For the Transportation of transport — provide accessibili- mated that trucks emit approxi- Freight Over Inland Waterways ty for those lacking personal mately 30% of all transporta- motor vehicles in both the tion-related carbon emissions, a Although this mode is extremely developed and developing share projected to grow to 33% energy-efficient, diesel exhaust from worlds; provide a reasonable by 2020. towboats and from self-propelled alternative choice for those who barges can be significant in some do have access to personal • Trucks are major sources of locations. motor vehicles. noise, especially in urban areas. Poor maintenance is a major • Reinvent the process of plan- • The greatest challenge to sus- contributor to the truck noise ning, developing, and manag- tainability for this mode of problem, as are certain driving ing mobility infrastructure. freight transportation is associ- practices, such as the use of ated with the construction and engine compression as an assist • Drastically reduce carbon emis- maintenance of the infrastruc- in braking. sions from the transportation ture it uses. The damming of sector, which may require waterways, the building of locks • Trucks are also major sources of phasing carbon out of trans- and canals, and dredging of urban congestion. Some urban portation fuels by transitioning channels to accommodate areas have tried to deal with from petroleum-based fuels to a barge traffic are especially con- this problem by banning trucks portfolio of other energy troversial because of the impact from city streets during certain sources. of these activities on water pol- hours or certain days. While lution and wetlands. this may help to alleviate truck- • Resolve the competition for Competition can be severe related congestion, it can resources and access to infras- between water releases intend- severely affect the ability of tructure between personal and ed for two different purposes: firms to move their goods in a freight transportation in the to help assure that river chan- timely manner. To compensate, urbanized areas of the devel- nels are navigable by barges extra inventory must be car- oped and developing world. and to meet the needs of ried, increasing the total downstream (and sometimes amount of freight that must be • Anticipate congestion in interci- also upstream) ecosystems. transported. ty transportation and develop a portfolio of mobility options for • In some areas, especially in SEVEN “GRAND CHALLENGES” people and freight. important “corridors” between TO ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE major cities, large numbers of MOBILITY These seven “grand challenges” are trucks on the road may restrict not necessarily independent. Meeting the use of highways by passen- We believe it useful to group these one may help in meeting others. But ger vehicles. Dense truck traffic mode-specific and regional-specific their successful attainment would go

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required to meet surging world- a very long way to assuring that wide demand for mobility? Developed Countries mobility is sustainable. In the United States, the European • Can policy-makers and citizens Union, Japan, and other developed INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITY — effectively debate and resolve nations, mobility concerns are AN OVERARCHING CHALLENGE trade-offs between demand for increasingly likely to hinge on meth- mobility and demands for envi- ods for providing and maintaining Most discussions of the challenges to ronmental protection, energy enhanced transportation infrastruc- making mobility sustainable tend to conservation, and safety? ture in crowded metropolitan areas, focus almost exclusively on the role • Can nations appropriately har- and on the ways in which further that technology is expected to play. monize their regulation of trans- development will proceed in the less- We imagine energy-efficient “super- portation — on the one hand to settled hinterlands of these areas. cars,” transportation fuel systems assure that environmental and Decisions will have to balance desired that are hydrogen- rather than safety goals are met, and on the new economic development, the ills petroleum-based, and magnetically other, to permit effective, effi- of traffic congestion, and public levitated trains that speed people cient, citizen-responsive provi- opposition to specific transportation between cities using comparatively sion of mobility capacity by pri- infrastructure projects on environ- little energy. We envision telecommu- vate and public entities? mental grounds. nications technologies that tell us how to avoid congestion as we drive A World Bank Urban Transport One key institutional dimension is the and that automatically charge us for Strategy Review now in preparation relative role of public- and private- the full social costs of our personal (World Bank 2001a) identifies several sector entities in meeting these mobility choices. structural characteristics that distin- demands. Many countries are sorting guish urban transportation from most out these relationships in new ways. As intriguing as these technological other urban service sectors. By and In the provision of new facilities that possibilities might seem, history sug- large, these characteristics also apply will be owned by public entities, for gests that something far more mun- to transportation in general: example, there is a trend toward a dane will actually determine the pace larger role for private firms in plan- and direction of change in mobility • The separation of decisions on ning, design, construction, and oper- systems. That something is institu- infrastructure from those on ation of projects, which requires new tional capability. Political institutions operations. competence among public authorities determine which transportation in managing competitive procure- modes get favored through subsidies, • The separation of interacting ment processes and overseeing con- regulations, and protection from modes of transport. tracts. Where new facilities are to be competition. They also determine the owned by private entities, govern- type and cost of fuels that will be • The separation of infrastructure ment must develop effective means used to power vehicles. Political and finance from infrastructure of regulating safety and, for monopo- social institutions exert enormous pricing. listic or quasi-monopolistic services, influence over whether transportation regulating price — without surrender- infrastructure can be built, where it These characteristics lead to what the ing the financial and efficiency advan- can be built, how long it takes, and Strategy Review describes as a funda- tages that private-service provision what it costs to build. Economic insti- mental paradox of transportation — affords. tutions — especially large corpora- excess demand accompanied by tions — can either take the lead in inadequately financed supply. Unless Whatever the form of ownership, new encouraging change or drag their ways are found to address these financing methods are likely to feet and make change difficult and structural deficiencies and thereby emerge. A key question is whether expensive. resolve this paradox, all the technolo- road pricing mechanisms can be used gy in the world will not make trans- to accomplish policy goals — such as Looking ahead 30 years, the mobility portation sustainable. Either new congestion reduction — as well as to future is likely to depend on signifi- technology will never be adopted, or finance new facilities or maintain cant questions about institutional if adopted, it will generate perverse existing ones. capacity in both the developed and consequences that offset much of its Adequate maintenance of infrastruc- developing nations. Three matters intended benefits. ture to preserve and protect invest- seem especially likely to affect the While both developed and developments and to assure that facilities are sustainability of mobility systems: ing nations face major challenges used efficiently depends critically on with regard to institutional capability, institutional capacity. There is a pro- • Can governments and the pri- the nature of the challenge that each nounced tendency to shortchange vate sector build and manage region faces is somewhat different. maintenance of infrastructure — a the transportation infrastructure matter of misaligned incentives for

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both public owners (where the low reduce voluntary cooperation, and even for the limited public transport visibility of maintenance encourages greatly increase the cost and effec- options that do exist. skimping on budget allocations) and, tiveness of compliance. under some forms of private operation, for private entities as well. The opportunity to leapfrog the tra- Institutional capacity also affects the Developing Countries jectory of technological development rate of adoption and effective imple- that developed nations have gone mentation of innovative mobility It will be a tremendous challenge to through is a potential advantage for technologies — as clearly evidenced build sufficient institutional capacity — some developing countries if the in the slow diffusion of Intelligent in both public and private spheres — institutional capacity to adopt and Transportation Systems and the back- to deal with sweeping changes in implement these innovations can wardness of the US air traffic control developing nations’ mobility systems. develop sufficiently. This will be true system. In Europe, there are major In countries like China or Indonesia — both for transportation and environ- questions of institutional capacity for which face the prospect of rapid mental technologies. dealing with mobility problems that motorization and potentially explosive overspill political boundaries, both growth in private ownership of auto- within the European Union and mobiles — the lack of adequate road Environmental and safety regulation across its boundaries to non-EU infrastructure poses an enormous is in its infancy in developing nations. countries. problem. Sustainability is a critical Institutionally, there are issues not issue. Can these countries manage this only of capacity but of political will. process effectively? Governments want Harmonization of regulation in this Another key question with clear con- the economic development advan- environment is not merely a matter nection to sustainability is mobility tages of motorization, and increasing of reconciling the relatively similar equity — how transportation services numbers of individuals desire and will national schemes of regulation pre- will be provided to low-income indi- be able to afford the personal freedom sent in the developed countries; it is viduals. This concerns both those that vehicles provide. But the dangers also a matter of making basic com- dependent on public transport, of paralyzing congestion, local envi- mitments to such regulation in inter- which under current circumstances of ronmental degradation, and high rates national negotiations and national- metropolitan development, travel of greenhouse-gas emissions that add level political decision-making. patterns, and life styles, is less and to the threat of global change loom less capable of providing adequate large. Institutional issues in the public mobility; and those who own auto- sector include effective national deci- IMPLICATIONS FOR THE mobiles but may not be able to sion-making that balances these con- SUSTAINABILITY OF PRESENT afford increased user charges siderations, as well as implementation MOBILITY SYSTEMS imposed to ration road space. Will capacity at the regional and mobility be regarded as a right of citi- metropolitan level. In the private sec- The list of challenges to the sustainabil- zenship, to be guaranteed at some tor, organizations with the compe- ity of current mobility systems is level to all through public subsidy, tence to oversee large projects need to indeed a long one, but should not lead perhaps ingeniously supplied; or will develop. one to conclude that mobility cannot it be seen as another consumer good be made sustainable. Challenges that to be apportioned only according to once appeared nearly intractable are ability and willingness to pay? Adequate financing is another key yielding to solutions in some regions of institutional issue. Many priorities the world. Lead has virtually disap- other than mobility — including peared from developed-world trans- Last, but not least, sustainability is enterprise investments as well as edu- portation systems except for its use in critically affected by institutional cation and health — compete for lim- batteries, and the vast majority of capacity for environmental and safety ited private development capital and these are now recycled in most devel- regulation. Key questions include the public resources. Access to interna- oped countries. Conventional pollu- level of necessary regulation, whether tional assistance is not likely to be tants such as nitrogen oxides, volatile cooperative or adversarial relations sufficient for the full range of mobility organic compounds, carbon monox- will characterize interactions between needs in the developing world. These ide, ozone, and particulates are well on private-sector firms and public regula- financing concerns will affect not their way to being controlled in the tors, and whether regulation will only new facilities but also the main- developed world. Moreover, citizens of focus only on industry or fall directly tenance of existing ones. Also figur- the developed world have already paid on consumers (i.e., voters) as well. ing prominently in financing are the the up-front development costs for the Beyond national boundaries, the problems of providing equitable technologies that will enable these question of harmonizing public regu- mobility opportunities to low-income emissions eventually to be controlled in lation looms large for industry. Lack populations. These citizens frequently the developing world. Recycling of the of harmony will likely increase resis- live in areas poorly served by public materials used in motor vehicles is tance to specific regulatory measures, transportation, and may lack funds already at high levels in some places,

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and programs are in place to increase it in others. Control of transportation- related global pollutants such as carbon dioxide poses a much greater challenge, but promising approaches to improving vehicle efficiency have been identified. Controlling congestion, especially in the rapidly motorizing developing countries, is a major problem. It may end up being an even more difficult challenge than controlling global pollutants; intelligent transportation systems may provide some relief. Improving equity of access to mobility is also a major problem. Whether it can be addressed indepen- dently from the larger problem of social and economic inequality is an open question.

This report does not attempt to suggest strategies that might be used to overcome these complex problems. Its task has been one of assessment, not prescription. Devising strategies that will enable mobility to become and remain sustainable sometime before the beginning of the second half of this century is the task of Mobility 2030, the follow-up effort to Mobility 2001.

NOTE

1. The reason that the number shows so little change between 1990 and 1999 is the drop in FSU/EE energy use — 3.3 mmbd to 2.1 mmbd. Indeed, the 2015 number for the FSU/EE is projected to be only 3.4 mmbd, or 0.1 mmbd higher than 25 years earlier.

www.wbcsdmobility.org 7-11 appendix A-1 mobility 2001

Table A-1. Mode shares in selected cities

Taxi/ City Year Auto Bus Minibus Train Metro Walk Bicycle Other Africa Abidjan (2) 1988 12 30 Dakar (2) 1989 17 50 ca 24 8 Durban (1) 95 43 Greater Johannesburg 9 26 7 14 1 (4) 1995 40 3 Marrekech (3) 1993 7 9 2 64 8 10 Nairobi (2) 1989 25 50 15 Latin America Belo Horizonte n.a. 20 38 42 Bogota 2000 12 69 2 12 3 2 Campina 26 44 Grande n.a. 30 Cuiaba n.a. 22 38 40 Fortaleza n.a. 22 37 41 Managua 1998 37 35 28 Mexico City (6) 1986 25 42 11 22 Mexico City (6) 1995 22 8 56 14 Puebla (Mex) 1994 19 48 1 27 2 Recife n.a. 31 46 23 Santiago 1977 11 Santiago 1991 16 48 2 6 20 1.6 5 Sao Paulo (5) 1977 29 40.5 2.4 2.5 25 1 Sao Paulo (5) 1987 27 27 3 5 36 2 Sao Paulo (5) 1997 31 25 2 5 34 2 Asia Bangkok (2) 1984 24 60 16 Bombay(2) 1981 9 65 26 Jakarta (2) 1984 21 39 40 Kuala Lumpur 42 12 (2) 1984 46 Shanghai (2) 1986 3.3 24 41 31 Sources: Department of Transport, 1999, p. 26; Wright, 2000; IPCC, 1996, p. 687; Bogota Como Vamos, 2000; Bussiere, 2000, p. 98; Vorster et al, 2000, p. 330; Shoyama & Miyamoto, 2000, p. 442; SECTRA, 1991; Iacobelli et al, 1996; Companhia do Metropolitano de São Paulo, 1999, Table 9 & 11; Puong, 2000; Gerçek, H. and I. Tekin, 1996, p. 191; Midgley, 1994. Notes: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. 1. Durban % of peak period trips; 2. Auto trips include other private motorized modes (i.e., MC); 3. Bogota based on market survey of 1,500 persons (margin of error 3.5%); 3. Other is motorcycles; 4. Actually is urban trips for all Gauteng Province (Johannesburg, Pretoria), auto trips include motorcyles; 5. Auto includes taxi; 6. Data on non-motorized trips not available, metro includes light rail. 7. Data on non-motorized trips not available; other is waterborne transport; metro is light rail. Note: n.a., not available.

www.wbcsdmobility.org a-1 appendix A-2

Table A-2. Urban motorization rates for selected cities Autos+2- GRP (US$) City Year MV/1000 Autos/1000 Wheelers/1000 /Capita

Africa Cape Town 1998 170.0 Durban 1998 160.0 Harare 1998 235.0 China 1985 11.5 n.a. Shanghai 1990 16.4 3.2 1995 32 11.5 India Kanpur 1993 93.6 7.3 87.0 Pune 1993 128.4 12.0 108.6 Ahmedabad 1993 138.4 14.1 118.7 Bangalore 1993 159.2 22.6 143.9 Hyderabad 1993 121.7 13.8 109.9 Chennai 1993 119.7 23.7 109.9 Dehli 1993 250.6 57.1 224.7 850.0 Calcutta 1993 47.6 17.9 38.3 Mumbai 1993 43.5 14.9 34.5 Asia Bangkok 1990 199.0 323 3826 Hanoi 1993 7.5 184 Ho Chi Minh City 1992 16 149 490 Jakarta 1990 75.0 173 1508 Kuala Lumpur 1990 170.0 350 4066 Manila 1990 66.0 72 1099 Surabaya 1990 40.0 187 726 Latin America Bogotá 1999 112 99 3,300 Managua 1998 n.a. 43 620 1976 78.0 Mexico City 1986 91.0 1996 166.0 1977 60.0 Santiago 1991 101 90.0 1998 146 130.0 1967 70 São Paulo 1977 135 1987 141 Sources: Lu & Ye, 1998, p. 150; Puong, 2000; Chakravarty & Sachdeva, 1998, pp. 60-61; Ergun et al., 2000, p. 42; Mbara, 2000, p. 10; Barter, 1999, Appendix 2; SECTRA, 1991; Zegras & Gakenheimer, 2000; Zegras et al. 2000; DAMA, 2001a; 2000 Companhia do Metropolitano de São Paulo, 1999; Hai, 1995; Turley and Womack, 1998. Note: n.a., not available.

www.wbcsdmobility.org a-2 appendix A-3 mobility 2001

Table A-3: Comparative metro indicators for select cities

Patronage

Population Income/person Fares Lines, 000s/day/

(Millions) (US$) (US cents) Length year City (Base, Base Actual Base Actual Base Actual Actual Actual Actual) Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Cairo (1988, 1998) 10.0 15.0 1,075 1,386 7.8 10.5 (2; 57km) 1,200 (line 1 only) Hong Kong (1981, 1998) 5.3 6.3 5,498 17,804 31.4 60.8 (3; 43km) 2,326

Manila (1986, 1997) 8.9 10.0 1,020 1,724 17.4 21.9 (1; 15km) 440

Mexico City (1970, 1996) 7.0 8.5 1,800 3,452 4.8 9.7 (10; 178km) 4,750

Pusan (1988, 1998) 3.8 3.9 2,242 8,692 21.8 26.7 (1; 32.5km) 677

Rio de Janeiro (1979, 1995) n/a 5.5 1,980 3,916 9.7 25.8 (2; 23km) 360

Santiago (1976, 1996) n/a 4.3 n/a 4,751 17.0 27.8 (2; 27.5km) 595

Sao Paolo (1976, 1997) 9.9 16.7 1,980 3,916 15.0 68.3 (3; 43.6km) 2,123

Seoul (1975, 1995) 8.1 10.6 2,274 9,561 20.0 26.8 (4; 135km) 4,050

Singapore (1988, 1996) 2.6 2.9 7,162 23,863 37.1 49.0 (2; 67km) 927

Tunis (1986, 1995) 2.0 2.0 1,887 2,256 18.3 15.1 (4, 32km) 294

Source: Halcrow Fox (2000).

www.wbcsdmobility.org a-3 appendix A-4

Table A-4: Characteristics of rail freight

Axle loads 33 metric tones

Vehicle dimensions 10.25 feet wide, 16-22 feet high

Maximum speed 90 km/hour

Train length 2 km

Train weight 16,000 tonnes

Locomotives 3 6,000-hp diesel-electric units with AC traction motors

Freight cars 110 steel aluminum cars, 108 tonnes of coal, and 33-tonne axle load

Siding length 3.2 km

Siding spacing 16 km

Signal system Centralized traffic control

Characteristics of Rail Freight Operations similar to this are com- handle more than 20 double-stack Rail freight can be divided into five mon in the United States and trains daily for traffic originating or classes: bulk, intermodal, specialized Canada, and there are heavy-haul terminating at the nearby ports or in freight (e.g., automobiles), general lines in Australia, South Africa, and southern California. Typical terminals freight, and less-than-carload freight. Brazil as well — often designed for are much smaller, capable of han- movements of coal or ore from mines dling 6 to 10 trains per day; the ideal to a port. design is to have two long (2 km) Heavy-Haul Rail loading tracks with overhead cranes For heavy haul operation, the rail track for loading and unloading the trains Rail-Truck Intermodal structure must be able to support and a row of parking along each side heavy equipment, assembled in long For traffic involving rail and trucks, of the terminal. This is a simple lay- trains, operating at moderate speeds. the most efficient operations are dou- out, but it is proving difficult to build Component durability and cost are ble-stack trains. A typical double-stack new ports or expand current ones more important than high-speed oper- has 125 platforms carrying 250 con- because of the paucity of flat, open ation; minimizing track cost is more tainers. The track structure required areas that are large enough (2+ km important than minimizing train for these trains is similar to what is long by at least 0.1 km wide) and delays. Hence, research and develop- needed for heavy-haul operations; that are situated close to the highway ment produced the materials, inspec- maximum speeds are higher (110 and railway networks in urban areas. tion capabilities, and maintenance km/hour) requiring better track techniques that allow heavier and geometry, but the axles loads are longer trains to operate safely and effi- generally lower, so the track compo- With double-stack trains, the cost per ciently over single-track lines. A single- nents last a bit longer. The main dif- container drops nearly 50% relative track line with the following character- ference is that higher clearances are to traditional trailer-on-flat-car istics can carry 40 or more heavy-unit needed. These trains are able to oper- (TOFC) or container-on-flat-car trains per day or more than 100 mil- ate over much of the mainline net- (COFC) service. This productivity lion gross tonnes per year. work in the United States and improvement causes a dramatic shift Canada, but there are restrictions on in the competition between inter- the approaches to many cities, espe- modal and truck transportation. The Only the very highest-density corri- cially on the east coast. cost/km for double-stack is on the dors in the United States require mul- order of $0.20 to $0.30/km, com- tiple tracking for bulk trains and then pared to $0.40 to $0.60 for TOFC or most often only for approaches to Double-stack trains require terminals COFC and $0.60 to $0.70 for truck. major terminals. This type of opera- with cranes or front-end loading Since the traditional intermodal ser- tion is extremely efficient, and the equipment. The largest terminals are vices are only slightly cheaper than operating costs in North America are those near ports, where peak truck, they can seldom aspire to on the order of $10/1000 NTM. The demands relate to the arrival of large either high profits or high market keys to this type of operation are a) container ships. The largest terminal share. With the double-stack capabili- heavy traffic volume and b) modern is the Intermodal Container Transfer ty, the intermodal option suddenly heavy-haul track and equipment. Facility in Los Angeles, which can becomes dramatically cheaper than

www.wbcsdmobility.org a-4 appendix A-4 mobility 2001

truck. As a result, in North America, ing ordinary trucks, trailers, and con- serve a particular type of shipment. In trucking companies have formed tainers by rail. This approach will be North America, the availability of alliances with the railroads to use more expensive than the road railer multilevel equipment allowed the rail- double-stack for the line-haul while because of the need for substantial roads to retain a high market share in the trucking companies serve the cus- rail cars, but it could be more flexible the transportation of automobiles tomers. The railroads have long tried and well suited to specialized opera- from assembly plant to dealers. to do this, with spotty success; today, tions. If the terminals are well situat- the motor carriers choose to do this ed, so that it is very convenient for with widespread success. the truckers to get on and off the Chemicals also require specialized train, then this type of operation equipment, and safety is a paramount could be used to shuttle trucks concern. In most cases, the chemical The need for high traffic densities, through congested or environmental- companies own and maintain their good infrastructure, and high clearly sensitive areas. In Europe, for equipment, which is handled in gen- ances are serious obstacles for example, this technology is used to eral freight service by the railroads. widespread use of double-stack out- move trucks under the Alps; in North side of North America. In Europe, America, there are a few applications General Freight where the traffic densities might be of what is called the “Iron Highway.” sufficient, the clearances are difficult General freight moves in carload or even for TOFC and COFC operations. multicarload shipments in a series of Specialized Services If lines are electrified, then clearances trains between classification yards. At below the catenary will be insufficient Automobile transport is the best case each yard, cars from inbound trains for double-stack. In less developed of using specialized equipment to are sorted, then assembled into out- countries, where clearances are not a transport a particular type of ship- bound trains for the next leg of their major difficulty, traffic density may ment. At one time, automobiles were journey. The classification yards are not exist to support double-stack shipped in boxcars, and today they the only way to achieve the operations. are sometimes shipped in containers, economies of trainload operation for but the most common mode of shipments of, at most, a few cars. The transport is the “multilevel autorack.” boxcar is the symbol for moving gen- Hence, we should not place all of our The autorack is a superstructure that eral freight by rail, but general freight attention on double-stack intermodal fits onto the 89-foot flatcar that was could include any different type of service. Other options to consider once the standard for TOFC trans- rail equipment. include the road railer and variations port. The modern autorack has two on the traditional TOFC service. The or three levels and is fully enclosed to road railer is a system where the rail- protect the automobiles from dam- When the railroad networks were road car is reduced to the absolute age. Multilevel cars can be staged at designed, they were designed for minimum, namely a pair of axles with the assembly plant, 5 to 10 cars to a general freight. Even with the delays a platform to hold a container or track. Automobiles, soon after com- associated with terminal operations, trailer. The road railer was initially ing off the assembly line, can be driv- general freight service was much deployed behind passenger trains in en onto a mobile, adjustable ramp to faster than any alternative prior to the the 1950s in the United States; today the first, second, or third level of the availability of trucks. As the highway it is used by Triple Crown, a sub- first car and then driven through one network developed, the time and sidiary of Norfolk Southern, to pro- or more cars until it reaches the spot expense of rail terminal operations vide service in the east. This technolo- where it is “tied down.” The multi- became more and more problematic gy has line-haul costs similar to those levels are then assembled into trains, because the truck was much faster of the double-stack trains, along with often with other types of freight, and and more reliable. much simpler terminal requirements. moved to an unloading ramp where The drawback is that it takes longer the automobiles are transferred to to assemble a train, and twice as trucks for delivery to customers. The best general freight operations many trains (and track capacity) are Because of the high volumes of busi- are those where a major customer needed to carry the same number of ness and the relatively small number ships high volumes of freight along containers. Another drawback is that of origins and destinations, railroads major corridors to another major cus- specialized trailers or containers are are able to develop train schedules tomer. If the shipper and receiver are needed, as the equipment must be that give high priority to this traffic both located near a major terminal, strong enough to absorb the lateral and minimize the number of times then the costs of local delivery are and longitudinal forces associated the cars must be classified. minimized. If the whole route is along with train movement. a major corridor, then it will be possible to make the trip while going This is the best example of a special- through only a few yards. Still, the The third approach to intermodal is ized service in which rail and highway best that can be expected for general therefore to provide a means of mov- equipment has been developed to freight moving 400–1,000 km over a

www.wbcsdmobility.org a-5 appendix A-4

widespread network will be trip times of three to five days with perhaps 90–95% on-time delivery. Shorter trips will not necessarily be any faster, as it is the time in the terminals that dominates. The costs for this service can be well under truck costs (perhaps 30–50% of truckload costs), but the poorer service will lead to higher logistics costs.

For general freight, the advances in track structure and equipment size do not offer much. A boxcar is already large relative to a truck, so that making the shipment larger will required less frequent shipments and higher inventories. The benefits of heavier axle loads and longer-lasting track components are minor for this traffic, since axle loads are seldom a constraint, and train, equipment, and terminal costs outweigh track costs.

The key for this traffic is more likely to be in finding appropriate niche services. Examples include shipments of paper to publishers, shipment of manufactured goods to major distribution centers, or shipments of exports to ports for resorting and transloading into containers.

www.wbcsdmobility.org a-6 mobility 2001 references

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www.wbcsdmobility.org r-11 contributors C-1

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY David Bayliss Senior Transportation Consultant Dr. Joseph F. Coughlin Research Associate, Center for Transportation Studies Dr. Elizabeth M. Drake Associate Director, Energy Laboratory Dr. Frank R. Field III Senior Research Associate, Materials Systems Lab Dr. Ralph Gakenheimer Professor of Urban Studies and Design Dr. John B. Heywood Director of the Sloan Automotive Laboratory, Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering Dr. Gail Kendall Professor of Mechanical Engineering Dr. David Marks Director of the MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, Goulder Family Professor of Engineering Systems and Civil and Environmental Engineering Carl D. Martland Senior Research Associate, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Dr. John B. Miller Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Kenneth Orski Senior Transportation Consultant Dr. Daniel Roos Japan Steel Industry Professor, Director of Engineering Systems Division, Associate Dean of Engineering Systems Dr. Andreas Schafer Principal Research Associate, Center for Technology Policy and Industrial Development Christopher Shannon Editor Dr. Joseph M. Sussman JR East Professor, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Dr. Ian A. Waitz Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Dr. Malcolm A. Weiss Principal Research Associate, Laboratory for Energy and the Environment P. Christopher Zegras Research Associate, MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment

CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES INCORPORATED Dr. Jon A. Bottom Senior Associate Dr. George C. Eads Vice President Michael A. Kemp Vice President Terence McKiernan Editor Dr. Shomik R. Mehndiratta Senior Associate Dr. Kevin Neels Vice President Annie Ross Designer

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What is the WBCSD? The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) is a coalition of 150 international companies united by a shared commitment to sustainable development via the three pillars of economic growth, environmental protection and social equity. Our members are drawn from more than 30 countries and 20 major industrial sectors. We also benefit from a Global Network of 30 national and regional business councils and partner organizations involving some 700 business leaders globally.

Our mission To provide business leadership as a catalyst for change toward sustainable development, and to promote the role of eco-efficiency, innovation and corporate social responsibility.

Our aims Our objectives and strategic directions, based on this dedication, include:

Business leadership - to be the leading business advocate on issues connected with sustainable development.

Policy development - to participate in policy development in order to create a framework that allows business to contribute effectively to sustainable development.

Best practice - to demonstrate business progress in environmental and resource management and corporate social responsibility and to share leading-edge practices among our members.

Global outreach - to contribute to a sustainable future for developing nations and nations in transition.

What is the Sustainable Mobility Project?

Sustainable Mobility is the ability to meet society's need to move freely, gain access, communicate, trade and establish relationship without sacrificing other essential human or ecological values, today or in the future. The Sustainable Mobility Project is a member led project of the WBCSD. The project aims to develop a global vision covering Sustainable Mobility of people, goods and services. The project will show possible pathways towards Sustainable Mobility that will answer societal, environmental and economic concerns.

Disclaimer This report was prepared with the help of MIT and Charles River Associates. The report is released by the WBCSD. Like other WBCSD reports, it is the result of a col- laborative effort between members of the secretariat and executives from several member companies. The report was reviewed by all project members to ensure broad views and perspective. It does not mean, however, that every member company agrees with every word.

Acknowledgments The teams of MIT and Charles River Associates.

Ordering publications WBCSD, c/o E&Y Direct Tel: (44 1423) 357 904 Fax: (44 1423) 357 900 E-mail: [email protected] Publications are available on WBCSD's website: http://www.wbcsd.org The Mobility 2001 report is available online on the WBCSD’s Mobility website http:// wbcsdmobility.org Copyright © World Business Council for Sustainable Development, August 2001 ISBN 2-940240-21-3 Printed in Switzerland by Atar Roto Presse

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COMPANY CONTACTS: BP P. Histon, [email protected] DaimlerChrysler U. Müller, [email protected] Ford D. Zemke, [email protected] GM L. Dale, [email protected] Honda K. Kambe, [email protected] Michelin P. Le Gall, [email protected] SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY PROJECT Norsk Hydro E. Sandvold, [email protected] Renault C. Winia van Opdorp, WBCSD CONTACTS: [email protected] Project Director: A. Thorvik, [email protected] Shell T. Ford, [email protected] Assistant Project Director: M. Koss, [email protected] Toyota M. Sasanouchi, Communication Manager: K. Pladsen, [email protected] [email protected] Project Officer: C. Schweizer, [email protected] Volkswagen H. Minte, [email protected]