Fredericton on the Move Fredericton Transit Strategic Plan 2019 Final Report Prepared for Fredericton Transit Prepared by Stantec January 2019 Final Report Fredericton on the Move Fredericton Transit Strategic Plan 2019 January 7, 2019 Prepared for: Fredericton Transit Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Ltd. Transit Advisory TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 1.0 PROJECT BACKGROUND 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.2 BACKGROUND INFORMATION REVIEW 5 1.3 MARKET CONDITIONS 11 1.4 SYSTEM COMPARISON 26 1.5 ROUTE PERFORMANCE 35 2.0 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT 40 2.1 STAKEHOLDER ACTIVITIES 40 2.2 PREVALENT THEMES AND CONCERNS 43 2.3 SURVEY RESULTS 44 3.0 GAPS ANALYSIS 56 3.1 SERVICE PLANNING AND OPERATIONS 56 3.2 TECHNOLOGY 56 3.3 FARES 57 3.4 PARTNERSHIPS 58 3.5 MARKETING 59 3.6 FLEET 59 4.0 SERVICE PLANNING AND OPERATIONS 61 4.1 CURRENT NETWORK 61 4.2 NORTH SIDE HUB EVALUATION 65 4.3 PARK-AND-RIDE EVALUATION 72 4.4 SUNDAY SERVICE EVALUATION 83 4.5 ROUTING EVALUATION 94 5.0 TECHNOLOGY 114 5.1 CURRENT TECHNOLOGY APPROACH 114 5.2 FUTURE TECHNOLOGY PROSPECTS 116 5.3 TECHNOLOGY RECOMMENDATIONS 122 6.0 FARES 127 6.1 CURRENT FARE STRUCTURE 127 6.2 FARE PROSPECTS 135 6.3 FARE RECOMMENDATIONS 142 7.0 PARTNERSHIPS 147 7.1 CURRENT PARTNERSHIPS 147 7.2 PARTNERSHIP PROSPECTS 147 7.3 PARTNERSHIPS RECOMMENDATION 150 8.0 MARKETING 151 8.1 CURRENT MARKETING APPROACH 151 8.2 MARKETING PROSPECTS 154 8.3 MARKETING RECOMMENDATIONS 160 9.0 FLEET 162 9.1 CURRENT FLEET 162 9.2 FLEET PROSPECTS 162 9.3 FLEET RECOMMENDATIONS 164 9.4 FACILITY CONSIDERATIONS 167 10.0 PERFORMANCE CRITERIA 169 10.1 ABOUT PERFORMANCE CRITERIA 169 10.2 PERFORMANCE CRITERIA RECOMMENDATIONS 174 11.0 MOVING FORWARD 175 11.1 SUMMARY OF SHORT-TERM RECOMMENDATIONS (0-2 YEARS) 175 11.2 SUMMARY OF MEDIUM-TERM RECOMMENDATIONS (3-5 YEARS) 177 11.3 SUMMARY OF LONG-TERM RECOMMENDATIONS (5+ YEARS) 179 12.0 APPENDICES 183 12.1 THE NORTH AMERICAN BUS MARKET 183 12.2 FREDERICTON TRANSIT SURVEY QUESTIONS 189 FIGURES Figure 1 City wards of Fredericton. 2 Figure 2 Selected growth scenario. 7 Figure 3 Two potential sites for bus terminal relocation. 9 Figure 4 Residential population density. 13 Figure 5 Employment density. 15 Figure 6 Current zoning in Fredericton. 17 Figure 7 Transit trip generators. 18 Figure 8 Transit mode share (commuting trips). 20 Figure 9 Median household income. 22 Figure 10 Street connectivity and walkability. 23 Figure 11 Growth and development from Fredericton Growth Strategy. 25 Figure 12 Ridership and population change, 2011 to 2016. 27 Figure 13 Rides per capita, 2011 to 2016. 28 Figure 14 Revenue hours per capita, 2011 to 2016. 29 Figure 15 Rides per revenue hour, 2011 to 2016. 30 Figure 16 Operating cost per revenue hour, 2011 to 2016. 31 Figure 17 Operating cost per ride, 2011 to 2016. 32 Figure 18 Fare revenue per rider, 2011 to 2016. 33 Figure 19 Cost recovery ratio, 2011 to 2016. 34 Figure 20 Ridership and revenue hour trends. 35 Figure 21 Current transit network. 36 Figure 22 Average daily boardings. 38 Figure 23 Average boardings per revenue hour. 38 Figure 24 Stantec team speaking to interested stakeholders onboard the Idea Bus. 41 Figure 25 Public open house at the Fredericton Public Library. 42 Figure 26 Satisfaction with transit service factors. 45 Figure 27 Non-rider reasons for not using transit. 46 Figure 28 Fredericton Transit route boardings (left) and surveyed route use (right). 47 Figure 29 Fredericton Transit ridership heat map. 49 Figure 30 Frequency of transit use. 50 Figure 31 Common transit trip purposes. 50 Figure 32 Transit use by time of day. 51 Figure 33 Sources of transit schedule information. 52 Figure 34 Payment of transit fares. 53 Figure 35 Current route network and population density. 62 Figure 36 Home locations and current transit network. 63 Figure 37 Destinations from rider survey and current network. 64 Figure 38 Previous location of north side hub. 66 Figure 39 Concept for potential north side hub location. 70 Figure 40 Potential north side park-and-ride at SmartCentres North. 75 Figure 41 Potential south side park-and-ride location at Corbett Centre. 76 Figure 42 Potential south side park-and-ride at Kingswood. 77 Figure 43 Potential south side park-and-ride at the Fredericton Airport. 78 Figure 44 Advertisement for Comex park-and-ride lot. 82 Figure 45 Sunday service concept for alternatives 1 and 2. 84 Figure 46 Sunday service concept for alternatives 3a and 3b. 85 Figure 47 Sunday service concept for alternatives 4a and 4b. 86 Figure 48 Network alternative 1 and home locations. 98 Figure 49 Network alternative 1 with destinations. 99 Figure 50 Network alternative 2 with home locations. 102 Figure 51 Network alternative 2 with destinations. 103 Figure 52 Two potential sites for the relocation of the transfer hub. 108 Figure 53 Rendering of transformation of Kings Place. 109 Figure 54 Current ReadyPass app interface. 115 Figure 55 Ridership and transit service trends (2012 to 2016). 133 Figure 56 Historical fare revenue (2010 to 2017). 137 Figure 57 Example of fare evasion ad campaign from York Region Transit, Ontario. 141 Figure 58 Current Fredericton Transit logo. 151 Figure 59 GTrans (Gardena Transit) bus stop before and after rebranding. 152 Figure 60 Current bus stop panel designs. 153 Figure 61 Branding examples of bus stops and livery. 154 Figure 62 Transit advertising from LA Metro. 155 Figure 63 Transit advertising from King County Metro 156 Figure 64 Guerilla and street marking can reach wide audiences. 156 Figure 65 Cooperative makerting for transit at community events. 158 Figure 66 Cross-promotion of transit use and retailers. 159 Figure 67 Example of a well-designed and interactive transit agency website, STM. 159 Figure 68 Internal marketing, BC Transit. 160 Figure 69 Current division of functions in two Fredericton Transit facilities. 167 TABLES Table 1 Demographics. 3 Table 2 Fredericton Transit service span and frequency. 5 Table 3 Peer transit agencies. 26 Table 4 Household location of survey respondents. 47 Table 5 Origin and destinations, north side and south side. 47 Table 6 Evaluation of park-and-ride lots. 79 Table 7 Sunday service alternatives and service coverage. 88 Table 8 Current weekday and Saturday ridership (2016). 89 Table 9 Peer comparison with Portland METRO and Sunday ridership estimate. 90 Table 10 Sunday service alternatives analysis. 91 Table 11 Options for Kings Place Transfer Hub. 110 Table 12 Summary of recommended technology solutions. 125 Table 13 Fredericton Transit current fares (2018) and per trip discounts. 128 Table 14 Peer transit agencies. 129 Table 15 Fare tables from Fredericton Transit and peer transit agencies. 132 Table 16 Fredericton Transit historical fares and changes in price (2007 to 2017). 138 Table 17 Fare revenue and ridership (estimated) by fare product, 2017. 139 Table 18 Fredericton Transit proposed fare structure. 144 Table 19 National Fleet Profile on Bus Propulsion (2017). 183 Table 20 Capital cost premiums (diesel). 186 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Strategic Plan Background The City of Fredericton, located on the St. John River, is a burgeoning scene for innovation and technology in Atlantic Canada. As a relatively compact city with growing pressure for new residential and office developments, Fredericton recently released its new Growth Strategy, firmly acknowledging the desire for compact growth and intensification, along with new mixed-use developments. Overall, Fredericton is looking at a future that will encourage density and diverse land uses to help ensure sustainable and equitable development for its residents. With added pressure for growth comes added pressure for transportation; simply put, more people means more travel. Nevertheless, roads can only be expanded so much and new highways can only add limited capacity. While building new road infrastructure is necessary when accommodating population growth, it can’t be the only reaction. To foster sustainable growth, a variety of travel options becomes necessary, and Fredericton Transit, providing over 1.37 million trips in 2016 (5,000 passenger trips per day on average), is currently playing a vital role in moving people around the City of Fredericton. Fredericton Transit retained Stantec Consulting Ltd. (Stantec) to help devise the Fredericton Transit Strategic Plan (herein referred to as “Strategic Plan”), aimed at ultimately improving service quality and growing transit ridership while identifying new and innovative ways to provide transit more efficiently and effectively in the future. By reviewing current operating procedures, operating data, city demographics, conducting stakeholder outreach, and providing market scans of tech, advertising, and other best practices, Stantec aims to provide a Strategic Plan that not only updates the last plan from 2008, but steers Fredericton Transit forward with fresh and bold ideas and recommendations. About Fredericton Transit Fredericton has many of the necessary ingredients for transit, including population and job density, mixed land use, populations with little or no other travel options, and the need to connect people with many useful destinations and opportunities. The areas with the greatest transit propensity, that is, the areas that are likely to generate high transit ridership are the City Centre, neighbourhoods around the City Centre, pockets on the north side – most notably Nashwaaksis, and pockets on the south side near Prospect and Regent and around the universities. Fredericton Transit is productive compared to its peers and carries 22 passengers by hour, the most out of a peer group including the transit systems in Brandon, MB, Kingston, ON, Lethbridge, AB, Moncton, NB, North Bay, ON, and Red Deer, AB. Furthermore, Fredericton Transit has low operating costs per hour and per rider. Nevertheless, Fredericton Transit has seen stagnant ridership despite increases in service hours and service area population.