DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE world mobility at the end of the twentieth century and its sustainability prepared for the Sustainable Mobility Working Group of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Charles River Associated Incorporated table of contents one ● introduction KINDS OF SUSTAINABILITY 1-2 But Some Mobility is Desired for its Own Sake 1-3 Mobility Shapes and is Shaped by Our Patterns of Settlement 1-3 feature box •Why Public Transport Loses Market Share — A Primer on the Power of Desirable Mobility Characteristics 1-4 Mobility 2001 — Taking the Pulse 1-5 MOBILITY AND ITS IMPORTANCE 1-5 Mobility is Principally a Means of Improving Accessibility 1-5 Mobility Enables Economic Development 1-6 • Figure 1-1. Transit share of motorized travel has generally been decreasing 1-6 Telecommunications and Mobility 1-7 MOBILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY 1-7 Measures to Be Increased 1-7 Access to means of mobility 1-7 • Figure 1-2. Current (1997) levels of mobility in different regions of the world 1-8 • Figure 1-3. Modal share of passenger-kilometers across the world regions (1997) 1-8 Equity in access 1-9 Appropriate mobility infrastructure 1-9 Inexpensive freight transportation 1-9 Measures to Be Reduced 1-9 Congestion 1-9 • Table 1-1. Measures of transportation infrastructure per capita (km/million inhabitants) 1-10 “Conventional” emissions 1-10 • Table 1-2. Emission rates in London (grams/passenger–km) by mode, 1997 1-11 feature box •Ozone — A Complex Pollution “Cocktail” 1-11 Greenhouse gas emissions 1-11 feature box •CO2 Emissions by Sector 1-12 Transportation noise 1-12 • Figure 1-4. Share of worldwide CO2 emissions from the combustion of fuel, by sector — 1998 1-13 Impacts on land, water, and ecosystems 1-13 Disruption of communities 1-14 Transportation-related accidents 1-14 Use of nonrenewable, carbon-based energy 1-14 Transportation-related solid waste 1-15 MOBILITY 2001 — A ROAD MAP 1-15 Chapter 2 — Patterns of Mobility Demand, Technology, and Energy Use 1-15 Chapter 3 — Personal Mobility in the Urbanized Developed World 1-15 Chapter 4 — Personal Mobility in the Developing World 1-16 Chapter 5 — Trends in Intercity Travel 1-16 Chapter 6 — Freight Mobility 1-17 Chapter 7 — Worldwide Mobility and the Challenges to Its Sustainability 1-17 two ● patterns of mobility demand, technology, and energy use • Figure 2-1. Annual increments of the world population and of the urban population, 1950–2030 2-2 TRENDS IN POPULATION AND URBANIZATION 2-3 Urbanization and its Concentration in the Developing World 2-3 feature box •Medians Don’t Tell the Whole Story 2-3 • Figure 2-2. World population growth, 1950–2030 (billions of people) 2-4 Suburbanization 2-4 • Table 2-1. Population of cities with 10 million inhabitants or more — 1950, 1975, 2000, and 2015 (in millions) 2-5 www.wbcsdmobility.org i mobility 2001 PATTERNS OF TRAVEL BEHAVIOR AND DEMAND 2-5 The Effect of Income on Travel Behavior 2-5 • Figure 2-3. More Money, more travel, everywhere 2-6 • Figure 2-4. Distances change, time does not 2-7 Travel Growth: From Walking to Cars to Planes 2-7 • Table 2-2. Growth in passenger-kilometers traveled 2-8 • Figure 2-5. Percentage shares of total passenger-kilometers traveled 2-8 Implications for the Future 2-9 TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY 2-9 Some Vehicle Fundamentals 2-9 Historical Perspective 2-10 • Table 2-3. Typical engine and transmission efficiencies 2-10 Current Technology Status 2-10 Sustainability Challenges Posed by the Technologies of Motorization 2-12 Air quality impact of automotive technology 2-12 Global climate change impact of automotive technology 2-12 Challenges posed by vehicle manufacturing processes 2-13 feature box •The Rise and (Partial) Fall of Lead in Gasoline 2-13 feature boxx •Vehicle Emissions Reduction — A Qualified Success 2-14 ENERGY FOR TRANSPORTATION 2-14 Petroleum Supply, Price, and Trends 2-14 • Table 2-4. World production of crude oil 2-15 • Table 2-5. Ex-tax consumer cost of fuels in the United States 2-15 Refining and Quality of Petroleum Transportation Fuels 2-16 • Table 2-6. World oil demand and price, 2020 2-16 • Table 2-7. Recent and projected world transportation fuel demand (million barrels/per day) 2-17 • Table 2-8. World nonpetroleum transportation energy use, 1998 2-17 Nonpetroleum Transportation Energy 2-17 feature box •Developments in Fuel-Cell Technology 2-18 feature box •Petroleum-Like Fuels without Petroleum 2-18 CONCLUSIONS 2-19 three ● personal mobility in the urbanized developed world TRENDS IN URBAN MOBILITY IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD 3-2 Urban Decentralization and Automobility: Two Mutually Reinforcing Trends 3-2 • Figure 3-1. Indicators of transport use, 1990 3-2 • Figure 3-2. Ownership of passenger cars in OECD countries, 1960–1995 3-3 • Figure 3-3. Use of passenger cars in OECD countries, 1960–1995 3-3 Rising auto ownership and use 3-3 A drive toward the suburbs 3-4 • Table 3-1. The growth of selected metropolitan areas, 1960–1990 3-4 Provision of highway infrastructure 3-5 • Table 3-2. Motorways and road network in developed countries, 1970–1997 3-5 Extent of and prospects for these trends 3-6 The Role of Public Transport 3-6 The extent of public transport in the developed world 3-6 • Table 3-3. Some indicators of public transport system capacity 3-6 Trends in the use of public transport in the developed world 3-7 • Table 3-4. Some indicators of public transport mobility (km/capita/year) 3-7 Public transport operations 3-7 Nonmotorized Transport (NMT) 3-8 • Figure 3-4. Role of nonmotorized transport in selected European cities 3-8 www.wbcsdmobility.org ii table of contents SUSTAINABILITY CONCERNS 3-9 Road Safety 3-8 Nonrenewable Resource Consumption 3-9 feature box •Integrating Sustainability Concerns into the Transportation Planning Process: The US Experience 3-9 • Table 3-5. Changes in emissions of atmospheric pollutants 3-10 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 3-10 Noxious Emissions 3-10 • Table 3-6. Farebox recovery ratios for selected cities in developed countries 3-11 Vehicular Noise 3-11 Economic Viability of Public Transport 3-11 Creation of Transport-Disadvantaged Social Groups 3-12 feature box •Ambivalent Public Attitudes to the Social Impacts of Private Vehicle Use 3-12 Community Disruption 3-13 Traffic Congestion 3-13 MITIGATING STRATEGIES 3-14 Reducing the Demand for Auto Use 3-14 Transportation Demand Management (TDM) 3-14 feature box •“Foregone Travel” Due to Telecommuting or Home-Based Work 3-14 City center automobile restrictions 3-15 Traffic calming 3-15 The rebirth of the city car 3-15 feature box •Traffic Calming — A US Example 3-15 Car sharing: Separating ownership from use 3-15 feature box •Japanese Experiments with Shared-Use Cars 3-16 Fuel taxes: Pricing automobile use appropriately 3-16 Congestion pricing 3-17 feature box •London Considers Congestion Charges — For Four Decades 3-17 Enhancing the Capacity and Efficiency of the Existing Road and Public Transport Infrastructure 3-18 Expanding the physical capacity of the highway system 3-18 Innovation to increase the operational and economic efficiency of public transport 3-18 feature box •Underground Metroroutes 3-18 Operational highway improvements using intelligent transportation systems technology 3-19 feature box •Real-time Passenger Information Systems 3-19 Improving the Available Transport Options 3-20 Provision of public transport 3-20 Improving nonmotorized transport 3-20 feature box •Transport Deregulation Around the Developed World 3-20 feature box •Advanced Traffic Information Systems in Tokyo, Japan 3-21 feature box •Traffic and Incident Management, Melbourne, Australia 3-21 Providing transport options for those without autos 3-21 Land-Use and Urban Design Strategies 3-22 Public transport-oriented development 3-22 feature box •Portland, Oregon’s Urban Growth Boundary — The Rigors of Land-Use Planning 3-22 feature box •The Public Transport Metropolis 3-23 Spatial location policies: The Dutch ABC policy 3-22 Integrated Approaches 3-23 CONCLUSIONS: A STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY 3-24 www.wbcsdmobility.org iii mobility 2001 four ● personal mobility in the urbanized developing world URBAN MOBILITY AND MOTORIZATION: A GROWING CHALLENGE 4-3 • Table 4-1. Greater Santiago — evolution in motorization, auto mode share, trips 4-3 The Rapid Growth of Motorization 4-3 • Figure 4-1. The relationship between income and mode share in Santiago and São Paulo 4-4 • Figure 4-2. Mode shares in selected cities of the developing world 4-5 feature box •There is Significant Variation in the Motorization Rates Across the Developing World 4-5 Nonmotorized Transport (NMT): Still a Dominant Means of Travel 4-6 • Table 4-2. Motorization rates in developing nations, 1998 4-6 feature box •Motorization is Not All Autos — The Role of Two-Wheelers 4-6 Public and Paratransit Systems: The Crux of Developing City Mobility 4-7 Latin America 4-7 Africa 4-8 Eastern and Central Europe 4-8 • Table 4-3. Overall average travel speeds in Nairobi — bus versus matutu 4-8 Asia 4-9 Urban Rail Transit 4-9 Land Use and Transportation: The Architecture of Cities 4-9 feature box •Shanghai Expands 4-10 CONSEQUENCES: CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINING MOBILITY 4-11 Safety 4-11 • Table 4-4. Traffic fatalities in selected regions 4-12 • Table 4-5. Mode share and road accidents in Delhi, 1994 4-12 Congestion 4-12 Infrastructure decay and institutional weakness 4-12 • Table 4-6. Average, evening peak auto and bus speeds in Brazilian cities 4-13 Local Air Pollution 4-13 • Table 4-7.