SUMMER 2007 Ob serve r Burma, one of the world’s most repressive regimes, has only one way out of its current political crisis, according to America’s top diplomat to this isolated Southeast Asian country. “The only way forward is talks Bbetween the military (currently running Burma) and the protesters and democracy advocates,” said Shari Villarosa, the U.S. Charge D’Affairs in Burma, during a presentation at the East-West Center in Honolulu in early October. Villarosa briefly Burma at a Crossroads, left Burma for a series of meetings and consultations in Change Due Says U.S. Honolulu, before returning to Rangoon. While the military has largely maintained control Envoy in Burma over most of the past 46 years, its time will Shari Villarosa, U.S. Charge D’Affairs in Burma, gave eventually come, Villarosa suggested. “I don’t think you an update on Burma at the East-West Center. can achieve stability out of a gun barrel,” she told the East-West Center audience. current leaders. “The way they are going is seen more The current protests in Burma, initially led by and more as objectionable, even by their neighbors.” widely respected monks, were stimulated by long-term This is particularly true for China, Villarosa dissatisfaction with the military regime and specifically noted, “which has been more critical on this crisis than Inside sparked by broad public unhappiness with a sudden rise ever before.” At the same time, she said, India (perhaps in government-controlled fuel prices. for its own strategic reasons, such as access to Burmese Leach Cautions Change, said Villarosa, is inevitable in Burma. resources), “has been quiet.” ‘Crisis Brewing in And that change will not come purely by internal or Burma’s military leaders don’t seem to be in touch U.S.-China Relations’ domestic pressure. “We’re not the only ones saying with the lives of ordinary citizens, Villarosa added. The Page 3 things,” she said of U.S. pressure against Burma’s continued on page 2 Implications of a Rapidly Growing Urban Asia Asia Pacific Experts Chart Challenges for China- U.S. Page 5 Publications in Review Interests and the Region Page 6 Building a sustainable, steady relationship with China just may be the greatest challenge American Shinsedae: foreign policy has ever faced, maintains U.S. Ambassador Conservative Attitudes Stephen Bosworth, former envoy to South Korea and of a New Generation Bthe Philippines and current dean of the Fletcher School in South Korea of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Page 7 “It is much more difficult, much more complicated than dealing with the former Soviet Union after World War II, simply because we interact with China in so many different ways,” he said at a public program at the Spencer Kim, chairman of CBOL Corporation (L), and eighth EWC Senior Policy Seminar in Honolulu in Laurence Lau, president and professor of Economics of August. The Chinese University of Hong Kong (R) at the Senior continued on page 2 Policy Seminar. 2 fuel price hike, for instance, which might have made current leadership, is plagued by desertions and internal Burma at a sense from some sort of national policy perspective, dissent, Villarosa said. “The leaders don’t have a feeling resulted in a spike in bus fares from around 20 cents for what it is like to be an ordinary citizen,” she said. Crossroads to 50 cents a ride, out of reach for many workers. That “Change is going to happen in Burma. I just don’t led to protests not just in Rangoon, but around the know when.” continued from page 1 country. “There are uprisings all over the country,” she (In October, the East-West Center created the website said. “Everything’s not OK.” weblog “Burma Views” to help facilitate communication Meanwhile, the 400,000-member-strong Burmese with, among and about the people of Burma. To access the army, the fundamental source of control for the blog log on to: http://forums.eastwestcenter.org/ewcblog13/) The East-West Center Observer is a quarterly newsletter published by the East-West Center, a public non-profit institution established in 1960 to foster mutual understanding and cooperation among Participants in the Senior Policy Seminar discussed issues ranging from security to economics to soft power. the governments and peoples of the Asia Pacific region, including the Asia Pacific Experts Chart Challenges for Region United States. continued from page 1 Volume 11, Number 2 Security, economics, the U.S. role in the Asia Pacific distribution of power is best described as efforts at Summer 2007 region, China-U.S. relations and “soft power” dominated “engagement” and multiple “partnerships,” rather than the discussion among the 28 diplomats, analysts, scholars “hedging” or more traditional alliances. Charles E. Morrison, President and business leaders at the seminar. While these new regional security institutions are Karen Knudsen, Director At the public program Bosworth noted that emerging — such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the Office of External Affairs because of the rise of China, which was preceded by Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Asian the economic rise of its Asian neighbors, “we are in the Summit meetings, these are not yet able to deal with For information, contact: midst of a phenomenon which will be of greater the most critical issues. But it was suggested that over The East-West Center historical importance than the Industrial Revolution. time — with or without active U.S. participation — 1601 East-West Road Hundreds of millions of people are rising in the space they will become stronger and develop their own “rules Honolulu, HI 96848-1601 of one generation or less from a life of pure drudgery to of the game” to manage challenges. Telephone: 808-944-7111 a middle-class existence,” he said. Economics. Rising levels and greater dispersion Fax: 808-944-7376 The former ambassador also regards as positive the of prosperity around the region, including shifts toward building of regional institutions in Asia, due in part to consumption and domestic investment as drivers of Email: concern about China’s growing power. By bringing growth, could make for stability in the long-term. [email protected] China into a web of commitments and mutual However, at the moment interdependence is increasing Website: obligations comes reassurance for the rest of the world far more rapidly than the development of institutions www.EastWestCenter.org that China will behave in a manner that relies on which could help manage disruptions such as volatile Editor: Susan Yim cooperation and consensus building, he said. financial flows. This increases the vulnerability of Design: Kennedy & Preiss Ambassador Wu Jianmin, president of the China economies in the region to each other’s crises. Foreign Affairs University in Beijing who has served as Managing economic problems is more difficult China’s ambassador to the United Nations and in posts because leaders and political systems tend to respond in Europe, emphasized the common interests rather to short-term interests rather than the requirements of than differences that have influenced relations between building a stable and mutually beneficial system for Beijing and Washington. “China is going through the the long run. most important stage of its modern history,” he said. Soft power. Use of soft power to advance foreign “To develop, China needs peace.” policy requires careful management. It can be During the three-day seminar participants assessed ephemeral and can even backfire. U.S. soft power has the trends and shifts in the following areas: been to a degree squandered by its widely criticized Security. Relations among the major regional intervention in Iraq. And in many parts of Asia there powers are generally positive and no significant regional remains distrust of China’s ultimate goals and impact power is fundamentally dissatisfied with the status quo. in the region. The response of regional governments to changes in the 3 A crisis is brewing in U.S.-China relations based He elaborated on the mutual misunderstanding in part on tangible issues and in part on mutual he sees fueling this crisis in relations. “We have a misunderstanding, warns Jim Leach, former chair of tendency to overlook the economic challenges China the U.S. House Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific faces and the rapidity of change in Chinese society,” he AAffairs. The former congressman shared his observations said. “The Chinese are trying harder to understand us in a discussion of current challenges in U.S.-China than we them, but their state-centered approach makes relations with the United States Asia Pacific Council dealing with our separation-of-power system difficult. (USAPC) at East-West It defies Chinese sensibilities. The Chinese, like other Center Washington in June. foreigners, particularly wonder about the relationship Leach Cautions He attributed growing between the Executive (Branch) and Congress in tensions to difficulties both foreign policy. “ nations have understanding He sees a general trend toward greater activism in ‘Crisis Brewing in the other’s political system, Congress on foreign policy issues, a trend likely to changes in U.S. party accelerate rather than reverse. “This will particularly be politics and public fears the case on trade matters,” he added. “If lawmakers U.S.-China Relations’ about globalization. perceive constituent interests are being harmed by “It is important to bear foreign commercial practices, it should come as no in mind that China and the United States view the surprise to trading partners that Congress will attempt world i n profoundly different ways,” Leach said. to flex its muscles.” “China has adopted an ‘economics first’ policy, which Leach does not anticipate this trend will change as it claims is a doctrine of non- interference rooted in the an election year nears in the United States.