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010-V&A-PPCR Phase I Kingdom of Cambodia Nation, Religion, King 3 Synthesis Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Key Sectors Including Strategic and Operational Recommendations Prepared by: Preparation of a Strategic Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Project - Phase I Funded by: Climate Investment Funds Through ADB and World Bank Funded by: Climate Investment Funds Through ADB and World Bank Ministry of Environment January 2013 PILOT PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE (PPCR) PROJECT – PHASE 1 TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE ON SCIENCE-BASED ADAPTATION PLANNING AND OUTREACH SYNTHESIS REPORT ON VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT FOR KEY SECTORS INCLUDING STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS FINAL Prepared for: MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT ROOM 303B, 2ND FLOOR, #48, SAMDECHPREAH SIHANOUK BLVD PHNOM PENH, CAMBODIA PHONE: (855-23) 218370 FAX: (855-23) 218370 Developed in cooperation with: LINE MINISTRIES AND INSTITUTIONS, DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS, PRIVATE SECTORS, CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS, ACADEMIA AND RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS JANUARY 2013 MOECC1808.1 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................ iv LIST OF APPENDICES ................................................................................. v LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................... vi FOREWORD ................................................................................................ xx ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................... xxiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................ xxv 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE OF TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE ..................... 1 1.2 OBJECTIVE OF THE REPORT ............................................................................. 2 2.0 COUNTRY BACKGROUND ................................................................ 2 2.1 GEOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................ 3 2.2 POLITICAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE .............................................. 3 3.0 GENERAL CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS ...................................... 4 3.1 VULNERABILITY AND LIVELIHOODS ................................................................. 5 3.2 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND GENDER ......................................... 6 4.0 VULNERABILITY TO CURRENT CLIMATE HAZARDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................. 7 5.0 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................. 7 6.0 REVIEW OF CLIMATE (CHANGE) VULNERABILITY & ADAPTATION STUDIES – RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ............... 12 6.1 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE IMPACTS AND RISKS IN CAMBODIA – FINDINGS FROM THE LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................. 14 6.2 VULNERABILITY IN THE THREE TARGET SECTORS ...................................... 15 6.2.1 Agriculture ...................................................................................................... 15 6.2.2 Water Resources ............................................................................................ 26 6.2.3 Rural Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 29 7.0 VULNERABILITY MAPPING FOR TARGET PROVINCES .............. 32 7.1 ADAPTATION IN THE THREE TARGET SECTORS ........................................... 37 7.1.1 Agriculture ...................................................................................................... 39 7.1.2 Water Resources ............................................................................................ 45 7.1.3 Rural Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 50 7.2 BROAD ECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS ........................ 53 8.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................. 58 8.1 VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS – IMPLICATIONS AND LIMITATIONS .................. 59 8.2 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES – IMPLICATIONS AND LIMITATIONS .................. 60 8.3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PHASE 2 (SPCR) .................................................. 61 Synthesis Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment i Hatfield 8.3.1 Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................................ 62 8.3.2 Adaptation Needs Assessment ....................................................................... 62 9.0 CLOSURE .......................................................................................... 63 10.0 REFERENCES ................................................................................... 64 Synthesis Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment ii Hatfield LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture. ................................................ 18 Table 2 Effects of Climate Change in various catchments in Cambodia in 2030 (Eastham et al. 2008, MRC 2009). ................................................... 23 Table 3 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on Cambodia’s Fisheries (MOE and UNDP 2011a). ......................................................................... 25 Table 4 Adaptation needs and priorities for the Agricultural Sector. ....................... 43 Table 5 Adaptation needs and priorities for the Water Resources Sector. ............. 47 Table 6 Adaptation needs and priorities for the Rural Infrastructure Sector. .......... 51 Table 7 Breakdown of baseline and delta-P costs* of adaptation for the NCAR wettest climate scenario by infrastructure category, 2010- 50 ($ billions at 2005 prices, no discounting). ........................................... 55 Table 8 Gross annual adaptation costs for water supply and riverine flood protection and average annual cost of adaptation for extreme weather events (climate change), 2010-50 ($ billions at 2005 prices, no discounting). ............................................................................. 56 Table 9 Gross annual cost of adaptation per year to counteract the effects of climate change on nutrition (million US$). ............................................. 56 Table 10 Unit cost of repairing damaged and affected infrastructure from floods in Cambodia (ADB 2012). .............................................................. 57 Synthesis Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment iii Hatfield LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Map of Cambodia. ...................................................................................... 4 Figure 2 DFID Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (DFID 2000). ............................. 5 Figure 3 Methodology used in the V&A Assessment. ............................................... 8 Figure 4 Matrix used for the Selection of Priority Provinces for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment under PPCR1 Component 4. ......................... 9 Figure 5 Graph showing the Priority Score for the Selection of Priority Provinces for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment under PPCR1 Component 4. ................................................................................ 9 Figure 6 Agricultural Growth Rates, 2001 – 2011 (Ty Sokun, MAFF 2012). ............ 15 Figure 7 Share of each province to national rice production, 2008 – 2009 (MAFF 2009). ........................................................................................... 16 Figure 8 Flood (top) and drought (bottom) exposure and rice dependency in major rice growing provinces of southeastern Cambodia. ..................... 20 Figure 9 Historical (1951-2000) and future (2030) productivity (Eastham et al. 2008). .................................................................................................. 21 Figure 10 Changes in soil water pattern under current and future climate (MOE 2010). ............................................................................................. 29 Figure 11 The Road System in Cambodia (UNWFP 2008). ...................................... 30 Figure 12 Exposure to Climate Hazards in Prey Veng. ............................................. 34 Figure 13 Sensitivity to Climate Hazards in Prey Veng. ............................................ 35 Figure 14 Adaptive Capacity to Climate Hazards in Prey Veng. ................................ 36 Figure 15 Adaptation Signature for the Agriculture Sector in Kampong Thom. ....................................................................................................... 44 Figure 16 Adaptation Signature for the Water Resources Sector in Stung Treng. ....................................................................................................... 49 Figure 17 Adaptation Signature for Rural Infrastructure Sector in Prey Veng. ........... 53 Synthesis Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment iv Hatfield LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A1 Socio-Economic and Climatic Characteristics of Cambodia Appendix A2 Key Concepts in the V&A Assessment Appendix A3 Summary of Consultations During Pre-Inception and Inception Phases Appendix A4 Participatory Vulnerability Maps Developed in Provincial Consultations Appendix A5 List of Studies Reviewed for This Report Appendix A6