editorial Fuelling dissent As the yellow vests protests in France continue despite rollback of planned fuel taxes, energy science and policy will have to rethink how they look at social unrest.

any countries with ambitious grass roots movement and adds to the specific levels of continuous policy support. nationally determined complexity of fuel tax implementation. In the case of the yellow vests movement Mcontributions for reducing It would also be imprudent to dismiss the though, we have a country that appeared greenhouse gas emissions identify fuel yellow vests protests and their outcome as a to be heading in one direction in terms of taxation both as a tool for curbing fossil fuel one-off event. Just by virtue of the reversal energy and climate policies suddenly being usage and for financing renewable energy of government policy it achieved, the made to alter course through an event whose initiatives. While a number of studies have movement could encourage opponents of timing could not have been predicted even identified disproportionate distributional climate action elsewhere to instigate protests if it could be anticipated. The Fukushima impacts of these taxes on various segments that could end up delegitimizing socially disaster similarly led to extensive policy of society1, there has been continuing costly energy and environment policies, even reversals in Germany and other European support for such measures in Western if there is majority support for them. In any nations in a way that could not have been European countries with high levels of case, the yellow vests movement will likely predicted4. Scenario modelling could environmental awareness and ambitious make governments more wary of pursuing have envisioned pathways with or without national climate targets. Even if recognized such taxation and further complicate wider nuclear, but the change in plans itself is as a difficult policy to implement, the adoption of this policy measure. something that could not have been built taxes until recently weren’t considered Of course, it is inaccurate to see the into the model, at least not with an accurate potential flash points for instigation of yellow vests protests as a response to fuel estimate of the timing. anti-government populist movements. Yet taxes alone. Such taxation has long been If confounding factors such as higher- that is exactly what appears to have happened known to have an inordinate negative intensity weather events, resource- or over the past few months in France. affect on the poor. One recent study of the climate-based social unrest, and cascading The French yellow vests protests started distributional impacts of carbon taxation in failures become more common, we might in response to a proposed gasoline tax France found that unless the revenues from need to look at scenarios of the future increase of about €0.029 per litre that was the taxes are recycled back to low-income with potentially extreme discontinuities going to go into effect in 2019. This tax households through cash transfers, the and uncertainties. While uncertainty hike had followed previous tax increases. taxes increase fuel poverty1. Energy justice quantification has long been a key element The protestors wore yellow vests because scholars have been emphasizing the need to of scenario-modelling science — with French drivers are mandated to carry distribute the costs and benefits of climate ensembles and shared pathways favoured in them in their vehicles, making them both mitigation and energy transition equitably. lieu of specific single scenarios — it remains readily available to most and a symbol It is clear that energy policy continues to lag to be seen how, if at all, discontinuities in of official mandates. The resistance was behind in this domain and climate taxation policy processes can be visualized. At least, triggered by an online petition calling for appears to exacerbate existing economic the potential tipping points for any given a repeal of the proposed tax, among other inequalities. The yellow vests movement scenario pathway — that may drastically things. The online dissent flooded over is cognizant of the broader socioeconomic alter the eventual outcomes beyond the into street protests by mid-November 2018. issues at play. The demands of the protestors power of the model to predict with any The government was initially dismissive are not only limited to a moratorium degree of accuracy — could be identified5. but as the protests intensified it backed on specific fuel taxes but also focus on a Nonetheless we should realize that if down, suspending the planned tax hike and broader list of issues calling for more equal underlying asymmetries in distribution of offering other concessions. distribution of income and wealth and more subsidies for changing energy systems and Carbon taxes have long been seen as a just taxation to meet climate targets. The fuel taxation to facilitate the energy transition difficult climate policy to implement. Public taxes in this case became the kindling that lit are not addressed, they can become an acceptance is easier to earn with gradual a bonfire that had been building for a while. added source of policy uncertainty at a implementation, higher if the taxation is Energy policy should be mitigating this time when more certainty and more action progressive and revenues progressively distributional disparity. In attempting to are required. ❐ distributed, and rises once the taxes are in inform policy, scenario modelling could 2,3 place . Governments thus already approach do more to examine the effects of rising Published online: 13 February 2019 fuel taxes with caution, generally aiming disparities, including the emergence of https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-019-0344-z for more conservative rates compared with social unrest. However, predicting the scientific recommendations for meeting timing or probability of unanticipated social References climate targets. The yellow vests movement unrest and any resulting policy reversals 1. Berry, A. Energy Policy 124, 81–94 (2018). and its aftermath now represents one of the in scenario-modelling exercises is a very 2. Carattini, S., Carvalho, M. & Fankhauser, S. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. first examples of rapid reversal of planned difficult task. Clim. Change 9, e531 (2018). 3. Kotchen, M. J. et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 094012 (2017). government climate action at the national Currently, integrated modelling exercises 4. Wittneben, B. B. F. Environ. Sci. Policy 15, 1–3 (2012). level in response to a direct and targeted that look at socioeconomic pathways assume 5. Lenton, T. M. & Ciscar, J. C. Clim. Change 117, 585–597 (2012).

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