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World Bank Document Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized BANGLADESH BANGLADESH: ECONOMICS CLIMATE TO OF CHANGE ADAPTATION Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Climate to Adaptation of Economics Annexes i BANGLADESH: ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE i Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change BANGLADESH Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the Netherlands ii BANGLADESH: ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE © 2010 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved. This volume is a product of the World Bank Group. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All images © The World Bank Photo Library. Bangladesh Country Study Annex 1 Major Cyclones Crossing Bangladesh Coast (1960-2009) Wind Storm Number of Landfall Landfall Human Year speed Surges People Specific Economic Loss date Location Casualties (km/hr) (m) Affected Loss of livestock: 27,783. Noakhali 1960 October 31 193 6.1 10,000 200,000 Destruction of Houses: 568,161 Chittagong Vessels capsized: 5–7 Estimated loss: $11.9 billion Meghna Loss of livestock: 25,000 1961 May 9 161 3.1 11,468 NA estuary Railway track between Noakhali and Harinarayanpur was damaged Estimated loss: $46.5 billion Noakhali Loss of livestock: 32,617 1963 May 29 202 6 11,520 1,000,000 Chittagong Destruction of Houses: 376,332 Boats damaged: 4,787 Barisal- Estimated loss: $57.7 billion 1965 May 12 162 3.7 19,279 15,600,000 Noakhali Destruction of Houses: 35,636 Rice harvest loss: 40–50% December Cox’s 1965 184 3.6 873 60,000 Significant damage to fishing boats 15 Bazar and nets Salt beds inundated: 40,000 Estimated loss: $22.4 billion. Loss of livestock: 65,000 1966 October 1 Noakhali 139 6.7 850 1,800,000 Damage to poultry: 185,000. Destruction of Houses: 309,000 Damage to food grains: 5,595 tons November Bhola, Meghna Estimated loss: $86.4 billion 1970 224 10.0 300,000 3,648,000 12 estuary November Chittagong Loss of livestock: 1,000 1974 161 5.1 50 NA 28 Cox’s Bazar Destruction of houses: 2,300 Chittagong Destruction of houses: 2,000 1983 November 9 Cox’s Bazar 135 1.5 NA Number of missing boats: 50 near Kutubdia Number of fishermen missing: 300 4,264 1985 May 25 Noakhali 154 4.5 1,810,000 - (6,805 missing) 1986 November 9 Patuakhali 110 0.6 - November Southeast coast 1988 135 10,568,860 - 18 of Teknaf Noakhali Estimated loss: $1,780 billion 1991 April 29 235 7.6 133,882 15,438,849 Chittagong November Gulf of 1995 110 3.6 172 250,000 - 25 Bengal Loss of livestock: 3,118 Chittagong/ Destruction to houses: 211,717 1997 May 19 200 4.6 155 3,052,738 Sitakundu Damage to crops: 97,333 acres, Damage to salt production: 2,232,000 acres September 1997 150 3.0 188 751,529 - 26 1998 May 20 Sitakundu 186 108,944 - November Sundarban Estimated Damage: $2,300 billion 2007 250 6-8 2,388 8,978,541 15 Borguna West Bengal, Estimated Damage: $270 billion 2009 May 5 95 4.0 190 3,935,341 India Source: Quadir and Iqbal (2008) and EMDAT 1 Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Annex 2 Tracks for Major Cyclones that Crossed the Bangladesh Coast, 1960-2009 Source: IWM 2 Bangladesh Country Study Annex 3 Cyclone Tracks used to Simulate Inundation Risk under the Climate Change Scenario Source: IWM 3 Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Annex 4 Description of Cyclones & Bay of Bengal Model The storm surge model used in this analysis is a combination of a cyclone model and a hydrodynamic model. The cyclone model simulated a cyclone based on the following parameters: 1. Radius of maximum winds 2. Maximum wind speed 3. Cyclone tracks, forward speed and direction 4. Central pressure 5. Neutral pressure Then the simulated cyclone is run with the hydrodynamic model to generate cyclone-induced storm surge and associated coastal inundation. This analysis used the Bay of Bengal model based on the MIKE21 hydrodynamic modeling system. It is a two-way nested two-dimensional model and its domain extends from Chandpur to 16º latitude in a north-south direction. The grid size of the model is 200m in the Meghna estuary and coastal region of Bangladesh. A description of the bathymetry data used to develop the Bay of Bengal model is as follows: Bathymetry Data The main source of bathymetry data for the modeling is the C-Map (an Electronic Chart System Database), Meghna Estuary Study, Phase II (MES II, 1998-99), Mongla Port Study (2004), IPSWAM (2008) and other projects of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). Figure A-1 shows the nested bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal Model. In order to simulate realistic flood depths, the following topographic data was used in the analysis: Topographic Data (Digital Elevation Model) The main source of topographic elevation data for the coastal region of Bangladesh is the FINNMAP land survey, FAP 19- National DEM (1952-64), and projects of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (i.e. Khulna Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation Project, 1997; Beel Kapalia project, 2008; and Beel Khuksia project, 2004). The FINNMAP topographic maps and other data were digitized to develop a digital elevation model (DEM) of the coastal region of Bangladesh. The grid size of the model is 50 m x 50 m. The DEM of the coastal region of Bangladesh is shown in Figure A-2. The MIKE 21 modeling system includes dynamic simulation of flooding and drying processes, which is important for a realistic simulation of flooding in the coastal area and inundation. 4 Bangladesh Country Study Figure A4-1 Nested Bathymetry of Bay of Bengal Model Figure A4-2 Digital Elevation Model of Coastal Region of Bangladesh (Below) 5 Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Annex 5 Polders likely to be overtopped in the Baseline & Climate Change Scenarios Overtopping Sl. Length Overtopping Depth Length Base 2050 Depth River Dyke Sl. No. Sea Dyke Base 2050 Nos. (km) (m) (m) (km) (m) (m) 1 P07/1 32 0 1 1 P40/1-2 59 2.5 2.7 2 P07/2 64 0 1 2 P41-42 81 2 3.25 3 P10-12 67 1 1 4 P13-14/2 122 0 1 3 P45 26 1.25 1.5 4 P46-47 80 1.75 2 5 P23 37 0 1.5 5 P48 38 1.2 2 6 P31 63 0 1 7 P32 49 0 1 6 P50/51 48 1.8 2.25 8 P33 52 0 1 7 P52/53 40 2.5 3 9 P35/1 62 1 2.5 8 P54 60 1.8 2.25 10 P35/2 105 1 2.5 9 P55/1 46 1.4 1.75 11 P35/3 40 0 1.5 10 P55/3 53 1.25 2 12 P36/2 87 0 1.5 11 P55/4 31 2.9 3.75 13 P37 100 1 2.75 12 P56/57(E) 140 2.5 3.25 14 P38 40 2 2.75 13 P56/57(W) 90 1.5 2.5 15 P39/1 96 2 2.5 14 P58/1 32 3.25 5 16 P39/2 109 1.5 3.25 15 P58/2 28 3.3 4.25 17 P41/6-7 95 0.75 1 16 P59/2 93 3.25 4 18 P42 28 2 3.25 17 P59/3B 70 4.5 6 19 P43/1 114 1.8 2 18 P59/3C 42 4 6.5 20 P43/2 121 1.8 2 19 P60 45 4.25 6.5 21 P44 84 1.5 2.2 22 P55/2 109 1.9 2.75 20 P61/1 26 3.5 6.4 21 P61/2 45 1 6.5 23 P63/1A -Battali 38 1.75 5.6 22 P62 22 2.5 5.5 24 P64/2A 59 0 5 25P64/2b-joakkhal-Koriardi 17 0 3 23 P63/1A-Raipur 20 1.5 4.5 26 P64/2b-Pekua 30 0 3.75 24 P64/1A 54 1.75 6.25 25 P64/2b-Mognama 27 1 3.5 26 P64/2b-Ujantia 22 0 3.5 27 P66/3 37 0 0.5 28 P69 29 0 1.25 29 P70 29 1 1.75 30 P71 41 1.75 4.25 31 P72 62 4 5.5 32 P73/1 89 2.3 3.5 33 P73/2 48 2.6 3 Note: Polders that are not overtopped in both scenarios are not listed.
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