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Applications of Weather and Climate Services - Abstracts of the Eleventh CAWCR Workshop 27 November - 1 December 2017, Melbourne, Australia The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Adding Value: Applications of Weather and Climate Services - abstracts of the eleventh CAWCR Workshop 27 November - 1 December 2017, Melbourne, Australia CAWCR Technical Report No. 081 Keith A. Day and Ian Smith (editors) November 2017 Adding Value: Applications of Weather and Climate Services - abstracts of the eleventh CAWCR Workshop 27 November - 1 December 2017, Melbourne, Australia ii Adding Value: Applications of Weather and Climate Services - abstracts of the eleventh CAWCR Workshop 27 November - 1 December 2017, Melbourne, Australia Keith A. Day and Ian Smith (Editors) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia CAWCR Technical Report No. 081 November 2017 Author: CAWCR 11th Annual Workshop; Adding Value: Applications of Weather and Climate Services (2017: Melbourne, Victoria) Other contributors : Linda Anderson-Berry, Beth Ebert, Val Jemmeson, Leon Majewski, Rod Potts, Tim Pugh, Harald Richter, Claire Spillman, Samantha Stevens, Blair Trewin, Narendra Tuteja, and Gary Weymouth Title: Adding Value: Applications of Weather and Climate Services - abstracts of the eleventh CAWCR Workshop 27 November - 1 December, Melbourne, Australia / Editors Keith. A. Day and Ian Smith Series: CAWCR technical report; No. 081 Notes: Includes index. Adding Value: Applications of Weather and Climate Services - abstracts of the eleventh CAWCR Workshop 27 November - 1 December 2017, Melbourne, Australia iii Enquiries should be addressed to: Keith Day Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research: A partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia [email protected] Phone: 61 3 9669 8311 Conference sponsors We would like to acknowledge and thank the following sponsors for their participation in this conference Copyright and disclaimer © 2017 CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (including each of its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. Adding Value: Applications of Weather and Climate Services - abstracts of the eleventh CAWCR Workshop 27 November - 1 December 2017, Melbourne, Australia iv Contents Chris Lucas FOREWORD .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Jeffrey Lazo Economic Assessment of Hydrological-Meteorological Services and Products: The Value Chain Approach ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 John Handmer, Monique Ladds and Liam Magee Updating disaster losses in Australia: data, issues and implications.......................................................... 9 Vicki Heinrich Improving tropical cyclone preparedness: a case study from severe tropical cyclone Marcia ............... 10 Anthony Rea, Belinda Campbell, Karl Monnik, Nadine D’Argent and Boris Kelly-Gerreyn Data and observations – future perspectives .............................................................................................. 12 Tony Hirst Status and future evolution of the Bureau's modelling systems ............................................................... 14 Andrew Tupper Contrasting weather service evolutions for the developed and developing world – an example from the Australia / Papua New Guinea relationship ........................................................................................ 16 Ken Mylne, Helen Titley, Rob Neal, Joanne Robbins and Becky Hemingway Ensemble applications for high-impact weather at the Met Office ......................................................... 17 Gary Weymouth, Philip Riley, Timothy Hume, Thomas Gale, Andrew Charles, Nathan Faggian, Melanie Webb, Anja Schubert and Shaun Cooper Statistical post-processing of ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance .................................... 22 Michael Foley, Deryn Griffiths, Harry Jack, Ioanna Ioannou, Nick Loveday, Lex Hider and Ben Price Weather forecast process streamlining and evaluation ............................................................................. 27 Michael Scheuerer Generating spatio-temporal precipitation forecast fields based on the output of the global ensemble forecast system (GEFS) ............................................................................................................................... 33 Susan Rennie, Peter Steinle, Shaun Cooper, Gary Dietachmayer, Martin Dix, Charmaine Franklin, Monika Krysta, Tan Le, John Le Marshall, Jin Lee, Wenming Lu, Belinda Roux, Lawrence Rikus, Fiona Smith, Chris Tingwell, and Yi Xiao High resolution data assimilation in ACCESS .......................................................................................... 35 Charmaine Franklin UM physics developments for improved convective-scale forecasts ......................................................... 39 Chun-Hsu Su, Nathan Eizenberg, Greg Kociuba, Peter Steinle, Doerte Jakob, Paul Fox-Hughes, Richard Renshaw, Peter Jermey, Stuart Moore BoM atmospheric high-resolution regional reanalysis for Australia (BARRA): Status and progress .. 41 Jim Fraser, Yi Xiao, Peter Steinle, Gary Dietachmayer, Jeff Kepert, Hongyan Zhu, Monika Krysta, Xudong Sun and Thomas Coleman ACCESS-TC3: Developing a new 4km tropical cyclone forecast system ................................................. 46 Adding Value: Applications of Weather and Climate Services - abstracts of the eleventh CAWCR Workshop 27 November - 1 December 2017, Melbourne, Australia v John F Middleton, Paul Sanderey Charles James and Trent Mattner Adding value: the eSA-Marine - phase 1: the first step towards an operational now-cast/forecast ocean prediction system for Southern Australia ........................................................................................ 48 Mark Curtis and Alan Seed Rainfields 3: real-time radar quality control and precipitation estimation .............................................. 51 Alain Protat What can our new operational dual-polarization radars do for you? ...................................................... 52 Bronwyn Dolman, Iain Reid and Chris Tingwell The Australian wind profiler network: operation, assimilation and research ......................................... 53 Israel L. Jirak, Steven J. Weiss, and Adam J. Clark Utility of convection-allowing models and ensembles for high-impact weather forecasting .................. 58 Shaun Cooper, Susan Rennie, Ilia Bermous, Imtiaz Dharssi, Gary Dietachmayer, Martin Dix, Nathan Eizenberg, Charmaine Franklin, Tan Le, Jin Lee, Wenming Lu, Michael Naughton, Lawrence Rikus, Peter Steinle, Chun-Hsu Su, Asri Sulaiman, and Yi Xiao ACCESS City Ensemble (CE3): Towards convective scale ensemble NWP at the bureau ..................... 63 Harald Richter, G. Collecutt and A. Treloar New developments in the bureau’s thunderstorm prediction system – calibrated thunder..................... 67 Dean Sgarbossa Improved extreme weather hazard prediction and communication through science to operations ....... 68 Ken Mylne, Nigel Roberts, Bruce Wright, Ben Fitzpatrick, Jonathan Flowerdew and Marion Mittermaier IMPROVER - a new strategy for integrated post-processing and verification for the convective scale age ........................................................................................................................................................ 69 David John Gagne II Machine learning integration into high impact weather forecasting systems ......................................... 73 Pablo R. Larraondo and Jian Guo Disentangling the weather manifold ........................................................................................................... 74 Emile Jansons Watching clouds in the cloud: forecasting the evolution of cloud object ensembles with computer vision and deep learning .............................................................................................................................. 77 Katie Antypas Supporting large scale experimental workflows on the NERSC HPC ..................................................... 78 Phil Brown Trends in computational architectures and applications over the coming 5 years ................................. 79 Justin Glen Optimising storage for science and analytics ............................................................................................. 80 Werner Scholz Tools
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