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Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia: an Examination of Information and Warnings Broadcasted to Inform Mitigation and Community Preparedness

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia: an Examination of Information and Warnings Broadcasted to Inform Mitigation and Community Preparedness Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia: an examination of information and warnings broadcasted to inform mitigation and community preparedness Kevin Ronan CQ University, Bushfire and Naturual Hazards CRC Bruce Gunn Bureau of Meteorology Deanne Bird Risk Frontiers, University of Iceland AFAC16 CONFERENCE PAPER Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia: An examination of information and warnings broadcasted to inform mitigation and community preparedness Deanne Bird1, 2, Shannon Panchuk3, Kevin Ronan4, Linda Anderson-Berry3, Christine Hanley5, Shelby Canterford6, Ian Mannix7, Bruce Gunn3 1 Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, Melbourne 2 Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik 3 Hazards Warnings and Forecasts Division, Bureau of Meteorology 4 Clinical Psychology, School of Human, Health and Social Sciences, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton 5 Population Research Lab, School of Human, Health and Social Sciences, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton 6 Community Safety Branch, Community Safety and Earth Monitoring Division, Geoscience Australia 7 ABC Radio Emergency Broadcasting Abstract The event of severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia is particularly interesting for two reasons. Firstly, it is the most intense cyclone to make landfall so far south on the east coast of Australia during the satellite era. Secondly, it rapidly intensified from a Category 2 to a Category 5 system in 36 hours. While coastal residents of the region, including Yeppoon and Byfield are accustomed to receiving cyclone forecasts and warnings, many were taken by surprise by the intensity of Marcia and the fact that it wasn’t another ‘near miss’. Being situated further inland, the residents of Rockhampton were even more surprised. Given the rapid escalation in intensity of this event, the effective transmission of warnings and how these were used to inform mitigation and community preparedness was particularly important. A collaborative post-disaster assessment involving almost 800 people across the Capricornia region was therefore undertaken to investigate public views, expectations and actions related to information broadcasted during the lead up to and impact of Marcia on 20 February 2015. In particular, public views of the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) predictive services disseminated as WATCH and WARNINGS were explored. Many people were not aware their area was vulnerable to severe tropical cyclones and initially levels of concern were low. As Marcia was predicted to intensify to a Category 5, however, concern levels escalated. Nevertheless, respondents stated they felt they knew what to do to keep safe, despite few actively preparing in the lead-in to the cyclone season. Most respondents stated warnings were relevant and contained all the information they needed. ABC radio and BoM’s website were favoured sources of information, although television was the most prevalent overall. This paper discusses the event from a predictive viewpoint and examines how local residents’ received, perceived and responded to warning information. Introduction Tropical Cyclone Marcia (TC Marcia) made landfall in the Central Queensland region on 20 February 2015. Nearly 2000 properties (commercial and residential) were damaged, including 238 with severe damage and 14 with total damage (DILPG, 2015). The State Emergency Service received more than 8,000 requests for assistance and 69,000 customers were without power, with major outages and structural damage in Biloela, Yeppoon and Rockhampton (DILPG, 2015) . After forming as a tropical low in the Coral Sea on 16 February 2015, TC Marcia tracked eastwards while slowly intensifying (BoM, 2015). The system was confirmed as a tropical cyclone on 18 February as it began turning towards the southwest and reaching a Category 2 system by later that evening (Figure 1). TC Marcia then underwent a period of extreme rapid intensification where it reached a Category 4 storm in around 12 hours, which is unusual for tropical cyclones in the South Pacific (BoM, 2015). Late in the evening of 19 February 2015, TC Marcia changed course with a sharp turn south while intensifying further into a Category 5 system on the morning of 20 February. These events were communicated officially to the public, via the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) website, as tropical cyclone ADVICE products containing WATCH and WARNING areas (Table 1) and also via various other media sources such as television and radio, including live to air interviews. A tropical cyclone WATCH is issued for an area if a cyclone is expected to affect coastal communities within 48 hours, but not expected within 24 hours. A tropical cyclone WARNING is issued if a cyclone is affecting or is expected to affect coastal communities within 24 hours. The Standard Emergency Warning Signal(SEWS), or ‘cyclone siren’, is applied to warnings broadcast over radio and television generally 12 hours ahead of expected significant hazard impact. Advice regarding specific actions for local communities is disseminated to the media by state and local government authorities. Figure 1: Track of TC Marcia (from BoM, 2015). Table 1: The BoM’s TC Advice summary for TC Marcia (BoM, 2015). Date/Time Action Location (EST) 18th Tropical Cyclone Watch St Lawrence to Double Island Point February issued 2015 5:00am 18th Tropical Cyclone Warning Sarina to Double Island Point February issued Inland areas between Yeppoon and 2015 Tropical Cyclone Watch Double Island Point, including Gayndah 5:00pm issued 19th Tropical Cyclone Warning Mackay to Double Island Point and inland February issued, previous Watch areas including Biloela and Monto 2015 continues 5:00am 19th Tropical Cyclone Warning Mackay to Double Island Point and inland February issued, previous Watch areas including Biloela and Monto 2015 continues 8:00am 19th FLASH Tropical Cyclone Bowen to Double Island Point and inland February Warning issued, previous areas 2015 Watch continues 4:00pm Hourly Warnings initiated 19th Tropical Cyclone Warning Bowen to Double Island Point and inland February issued areas including Biloela, Monto, Blackwater 2015 and Gayndah 7:00pm 20th Tropical Cyclone Warning Bowen to Sarina February cancelled Sarina to Double Island Point and inland 2015 Tropical Cyclone Warning areas including Biloela, Monto and 4:00am continues elsewhere Gayndah 20th Tropical Cyclone Warning Some inland areas including Taroom and February cancelled Murgon 2015 Tropical Cyclone Warning Sarina to Double Island Point and inland 11:00am continues elsewhere areas including Biloela, Monto and Gayndah 20th Tropical Cyclone Warning Sarina to St Lawrence February cancelled St Lawrence to Double Island Point and 2015 Tropical Cyclone Warning inland areas including Biloela, Monto and 1:00pm continues elsewhere Gayndah 20th Tropical Cyclone Warning Sarina to Yeppoon and some inland areas February cancelled Yeppoon to Double Island Point and 2015 Tropical Cyclone Warning inland areas including Biloela, Monto and 5:00pm continues elsewhere Gayndah 20th Tropical Cyclone Warning Yeppoon to south of Rockhampton February cancelled South of Rockhampton to Double Island 2015 Tropical Cyclone Warning Point and inland areas including Biloela, 8:00pm continues elsewhere Monto and Gayndah 21st Tropical Cyclone Warning South of Rockhampton to Double Island February cancelled Point and inland areas including Biloela, 2015 Monto and Gayndah 2:00am BoM and other agencies were faced with a challenging role in disseminating timely public warnings due to the rapid intensification of TC Marcia. A collaborative post-disaster assessment was undertaken to investigate public views, expectations and actions related to information broadcasted during the lead up to and impact of Marcia. This paper examines how local residents’ received, perceived and responded to warning information. Methods The research project was rolled out in four phases: 1) a scoping trip; a questionnaire administered by 2) computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and 3) online; and, 4) in-depth interviews. In May 2015, the scoping trip consisted of discussions with local council staff involved in disaster management to gain a better idea about the event and its impacts on the local population. Feedback during this phase aided the development of the questionnaire that was administered by CATI and online. The Population Research Laboratory at Central Queensland University managed all CATI and online data collection. Telephone interviewing was conducted over a 7-day period in June 2015, between the hours of 10:30 am to 2:30 pm and 4:30 pm to 8:30 pm on weekdays and from 12:00 pm to 4:00 pm on the weekend. The online questionnaire, which was promoted by local media such as ABC local radio, The Morning Bulletin newspaper and Livingstone Shire Council website, was administered using SSI Web, professional advanced online survey software and remained open for 16 days through July and August. A total of 482 telephone interviews, averaging about 32 minutes were conducted and 279 respondents completed the online survey. Based on their responses to the CATI or online questionnaire, 22 people were selected for face-to-face interviews in November 2015 in order to gain a better perspective of their responses. Results and Discussion Demographics Respondents were from the cyclone-affected area of Capricornia, with the highest percentage from Rockhampton: • 45% from Rockhampton area • 40% from Yeppoon/Livingston Shire area • 36% male; 64% female • 13% aged 18-34; 18% aged 35-44; 19% aged 45-55; 51% aged
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