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Socio Economic Update No 33 H T January 2017

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Socio Economic Update No 33 H T January 2017 s e id r b Comhairle nan Eilean Siar e H r e Development Department t u O e Socio Economic Update No 33 T January 2017 ational Records of Scotland published 2014 based population projections on 27 October N2016. Population projections are produced every two years and are based largely on past trends and although they reflect past policy and economic impacts, they do not take account of future changes which may occur as a result of policy intiatives at a local or national level. It is important to note that projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go, especially for smaller areas, as these populations are affected more by the migration assumptions. The 2014 based projections predict a severe Age Groups in Outer Hebrides decline in the population of the Outer 2014 and 2039 Hebrides of 13.7%. This is the largest projected percentage decline in Scotland. 30.0 24.4 25.0 22.4 20.6 19.7 20.5 The decline in broad age groups is as follows: 20.0 16.3 15.6 13.6 13.2 12.9 15.0 10.0 10.8 a 28% decline in the 0-15 year age group (the 10.0 5.0 largest decline in Scotland); a 21% decline in Percentage 0.0 the working age population (the largest decline) 0-15 yrs 16-29 yrs 30-49 yrs 50-64 yrs 65-74 yrs 75+ yrs and an 11% increase in those of pensionable age. The Outer Hebrides is expected to have a 2014 2039 negative natural change of 3,657 over the period 2014 to 2039 while net migration is positive at The chart above illustrates the change 281. Therefore, the decline in the population in age groups from 2014 to 2039 with is due to a large negative natural change. the younger age groups decreasing By 2039 the Outer Hebrides is projected and the older age groups increasing. to have the second highest percentage of The population is projected to decline from pensionable age and over in Scotland at 33.2%. 27,250 in 2014 to 23,515 in 2039 , a loss of 3,735. Components of projected population change 2014-2039 by 5 year period Population Projections 2011 2015 1818 2000.0 1760 1685 1719 1778 2002 based 23,795 22,638 1500.0 1098 1077 1044 2004 based 25,513 24,679 984 900 1000.0 500.0 2006 based 26,200 26,103 20 45 109 140 Number 0.0 2008 based 25,989 25,827 -33 -500.0 2011 Census results 27,684 -662.0 -608.0 -675.0 -1000.0 -794.0 -918.0 -1500.0 2015 Population Estimate 27,070 2014-2019 2019-2024 2024-2029 2029-2034 2034-2039 Natural Change Births Deaths Net Migration The table above illustrates how previous The chart above illustrates that the projections and estimates have been decline is due to negative natural change much lower than the actual figures. with very little positive net migration. This has been true for both population projections and population estimates. n 25 August 2016 National Records of OScotland (NRS) released mid 2015 small Data zone Name % Change area population estimates. 2011 to 2015 The adjacent table shows the percentage Bragar to Brue -9.7 population change in ascending order from mid Vatersay to Castlebay -8.3 2011 to mid 2015. The population has increased Uig and Bernera -8.2 in fourteen data zones, 2 have stayed the same and 20 have decreased. Eriskay to South Boisdale -6.8 Loch Boisdale -6.2 The 3 data zones with the highest estimated percentage population decrease from mid 2014 Habost to Port of Ness -6.1 to mid 2015 were: Loch Roag -6.0 Uig and Bernera -6.9 Newton to Plasterfield -5.9 Vatersay to Castlebay -5.6 Goathill -5.6 Bragar to Brue -3.1 South Harris -5.5 The 3 data zones with the highest estimated Galson to Swainbost -5.4 population increase were: North Manor Park -5.1 Melbost to Braighe 3.7 Coulegrain to Stenish -4.8 North Barra 3.3 West North Uist to Baleshare -4.4 Gress to Tolsta 1.5 Loch Eynort to Iochdar -3.5 The 3 data zones with the smallest populations Knock to Bayble -3.4 in the Outer Hebrides in 2015 were: Grimsay, East North Uist, Berneray -2.8 Loch Roag 466 Pairc and Kinloch -2.7 Eriskay to South Boisdale 495 Springfield -2.4 South Benbecula 526 Gress to Tolsta -2.0 The 3 data zones with the highest populations Garrabost -2.0 were: Barvas to Borve -1.9 Marybank to Newvalley 1109 Coll to Back -1.8 Tong to Upper Coll 1097 North Harris and Scalpay -0.6 North Harris & Scalpay 976 North Lochs -0.6 The population continues to age in all island Carloway to Shawbost 0.0 areas. However, the broad age groups vary North Bayhead (Stornoway) 0.0 greatly across the islands (as illustrated below) Tong to Upper Coll 0.6 with 31% of the population in Harris aged 65 Newmarket 0.7 and over while in Benbecula it is 16%. Sheshader to Tiumpan Head 1.2 Island Area 0-15 16-64 65+ North Barra 1.4 South Benbecula 1.7 Barra & Vatersay 19% 57% 24% South Uist 17% 60% 23% Central Stornoway 2.2 Benbecula 21% 63% 16% Marybank to Newvalley 2.6 North Uist 11% 59% 30% North Benbecula 2.8 Harris 13% 56% 31% Melbost to Braighe 9.8 Lewis 16% 60% 24% Page 2 ational Records of Scotland produced a publication on Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas Nwithin Scotland 2013 to 2015. Life expectancy for both men and women continues to improve. The Registrar General for Scotland said: “This report shows that while life expectancy continues to improve, there is still wide variation across Scotland.” ife expectancy at birth in Scotland was 77.1 for life expectancy was lowest in Glasgow city. males and 81.1 for females but with considerable L ife expectancy at birth for men in the Outer variation between areas. Male and female life Hebrides is 76.7, ranked 23rd and down from expectancy was highest in East Dunbartonshire. L the previous release, but life expectancy for women Male life expectancy was lowest in Glasgow while is 82.9, ranked 3rd, and up from the previous female life expectancy was lowest in West release for 2012-2014. Life expectancy at age 65 is Dunbartonshire. Males in East Dunbartonshire 17.6 for men in the Outer Hebrides, ranked 18 and will live 7.1 years longer than males in Glasgow is 21.1 years for women, ranked 3rd in Scotland. while females in East Dunbartonshire will live 4.8 years longer than in West Dunbartonshire. cottish males and females continue to have the Life expectancy at birth in island lowest life expectancy at birth in the United S areas 2013-2015 Kingdom. Males and females can expect to live 84.0 82.9 82.8 shorter lives (by 2.3 and 1.9 years respectively) than 81.9 82.0 81.1 in England. The gap between Scottish and English 80.0 78.8 77.1 77.6 life expectancy for both males and females has 78.0 76.7 Males Age widened since 1980-1982 by 0.3 year for males and 76.0 Females 0.2 years for females. Amongst EU countries male 74.0 72.0 life expectancy was highest in Cyprus and female Outer Scotland Shetland Orkney life expectancy was highest in Spain. Hebrides he biggest improvements in male life Texpectancy since 2001-2003 has been in Nationally, the gap between male and female life Inverclyde while the biggest improvement in expectancy continues to decrease from 6.2 years in female life expectancy has been in the Outer 1980-1982 to 4.1 years in 2013-2015. The chart Hebrides. At age 65 males in Scotland can expect below illustrates the difference in life expectancy to live for a further 17.3 years and females a further at birth between males and females. The Outer 19.7 years. Again, East Dunbartonshire has the Hebrides has the largest gap in Scotland at 6.1 highest male life expectancy at age 65 (19.3 years) years. This gap has widened since the previous and East Renfewshire has the highest female life release in 2012-2014 when the gap between males expectancy at age 65 (21.3 years). Male and female and females in the Outer Hebrides was 5.1 years. Difference in life expectancy at birth between males and females 7.0 6.1 2013-2015 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.6 Years 2.0 1.0 0.0 Page 3 ational Records of Scotland produce an analysis of migration trends at an administrative level. NNRS has compiled a local area migration spreadsheet which gives access to migration data from a range of sources for Council areas and NHS Board areas. The number of National Insurance Number (NINo) National Insurance Number (NINo) Allocations in the Allocations (to adult overseas nationals entering the Outer Hebrides and Scotland 2005 - 2015 UK) has increased from 60 in 2014 to 70 in 2015.
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