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Political Donations Networks in Canada: a Structural and Evolutionary Analysis from a Complex Network Perspective

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Political Donations Networks in Canada: a Structural and Evolutionary Analysis from a Complex Network Perspective HEC MONTRÉAL Political Donations Networks in Canada: A Structural and Evolutionary Analysis from a Complex Network Perspective By Abdoulaye Diop [email protected] Thesis Supervisor Gilles Caporossi [email protected] A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of HEC Montreal In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science (Ms.c) Department of Data Science and Business Analytics June 2020 © Abdoulaye Diop, 2018 This thesis is submitted as part of my Msc program requirement at HEC Montreal. This page is purposely left blank ii Abstract This paper introduces a network-based approach to study the impact of Canada's 2006 campaign financing reforms banning corporate donations on political donations networks in Canada. The goal of the 2006 reform has been to root out the influence of money in politics and make the donation landscape a much fairer environment. The paper investigates the structure and evolution of donations networks of all 13 provinces and territories and the power dynamics among political parties using complex network methodologies. Each region's donation networks were constructed from corporate and individual donations public data provided by Elections Canada. The results show that the 2006 reforms did have some impact on the structure of donations networks and the power dynamics among political parties in Canada. Keywords: Complex Networks; Political Networks; Donations Networks; Campaign Finance Networks, Contributions Networks, Power and Influence, Canada Politics. iii Acknowledgements I would like to first and foremost thank my thesis supervisor and academic advisor Dr. Gilles Caporossi for all his support, guidance, and direction throughout this thesis program. He is one of the few Professors that have inspired me to go beyond and develop a further appreciation for my current study field. I want to thank HEC Montreal for the opportunity to pursue a Master program in one of Canada's most prestigious research and academic institutions. To my dear colleagues, Nixon Blake and Reda Elboustani, I would like to thank you for the tremendous support, encouragement, and colleagueship throughout my academic and personal endeavors. Last but not least, to my siblings and especially my incredible parents, the most important people in my life, I would like to thank you for all the tremendous support, sacrifice, and guidance you have given me over the years. You are the only one constant in my life that drives me today and inspires me to be better every day and go beyond. And to my readers, I would like to thank you for taking the time to read my thesis. I hope this thesis would be an inspiration for you in your field of work. I would like to end this chapter with a quote of mine: “A true measure of a person should not be evaluated based on his or her IQ or intellect, but rather should be evaluated based on his or her willingness to venture into the unexplored.” iv Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................................... viii List of Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................................... ix List of Acronyms ....................................................................................................................................................... x Preface .......................................................................................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2. Literature Review ......................................................................................................... 5 2.1. Literature Survey on Complex Networks .......................................................................................... 5 2.2. Literature Survey on Political Donations .......................................................................................... 9 2.3. Literature Survey on Political Donation Networks .................................................................... 15 Chapter 3. Methodology and Project Design .......................................................................... 19 3.1. Research Motivation ............................................................................................................................... 19 3.2. Data Collection ........................................................................................................................................... 19 3.3. Data Transformation ............................................................................................................................... 20 3.4. Network Construction ............................................................................................................................ 21 3.5. Software Used for Network Construction ...................................................................................... 23 Chapter 4. Global Analysis of Canada’s Political Donations ............................................. 24 4.1. Canada Political Donations Statistics & Trends ........................................................................... 24 4.1.1. Canada’s Individual Donations Statistics: ........................................................................... 24 4.1.2. Canada’s Corporate Donations Statistics: ............................................................................ 26 4.1.3. Corporate and Individual Donations Pre- and Post-Reforms: .................................... 28 4.2. Canada Political Donations Equity Analysis .................................................................................. 30 4.2.1. Canada’s Individual Donations Gini Analysis: ................................................................... 30 4.2.2. Canada’s Individual Donations Gini Analysis by Region: .............................................. 31 Chapter 5. Donation Networks Global Measures of Connectivity .................................. 36 5.1. Connectivity Properties of Donation Networks ........................................................................... 36 5.1.1. Donation Networks Connectivity in Eastern Canada ..................................................... 36 5.1.2. Donation Network Connectivity in Western Canada ...................................................... 39 5.1.3. Donation Network Connectivity in Northern Canada .................................................... 41 5.2. Visualization of Donation Networks in Canada ........................................................................... 42 Chapter 6. Centrality Measures .................................................................................................. 45 6.1. Jaccard Similarity Matrix ....................................................................................................................... 45 6.1.1. Jaccard Similarity Analysis in Eastern Canada .................................................................. 46 6.1.2. Jaccard Similarity Analysis in Western Canada ................................................................ 55 v 6.1.3. Jaccard Similarity Analysis in Northern Canada ............................................................... 60 6.2. Degree Centrality Analysis ................................................................................................................... 63 6.2.1. Degree Centrality Analysis in Eastern Canada .................................................................. 64 6.2.2. Degree Centrality Analysis in Western Canada................................................................. 68 6.2.3. Degree Centrality Analysis in Northern Canada ............................................................... 71 6.3. Betweenness Centrality Analysis ....................................................................................................... 73 6.3.1. Betweenness Centrality Analysis in Eastern Canada ...................................................... 74 6.3.2. Betweenness Centrality Analysis in Western Canada .................................................... 79 6.3.3. Betweenness Centrality Analysis in Northern Canada .................................................. 82 6.4. Closeness Centrality Analysis .............................................................................................................. 84 6.4.1. Closeness Centrality Analysis in Eastern Canada ............................................................. 85 6.4.2. Closeness Centrality Analysis in Western Canada ..........................................................
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